CN103163489B - A kind of power supply method for prewarning risk of electric power communication device - Google Patents
A kind of power supply method for prewarning risk of electric power communication device Download PDFInfo
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- CN103163489B CN103163489B CN201310040949.XA CN201310040949A CN103163489B CN 103163489 B CN103163489 B CN 103163489B CN 201310040949 A CN201310040949 A CN 201310040949A CN 103163489 B CN103163489 B CN 103163489B
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Abstract
The present invention proposes a kind of power supply method for prewarning risk of electric power communication device, comprises step: obtain power supply historic defects situation, obtain power supply defect situation coefficient; Obtain power supply environment for use data, obtain environmental coefficient; Obtain power fail rate; Obtain the equipment importance factor of electric power communication device, obtain equipment important coefficient; Obtain the business importance factor of all business that electric power communication device carries, obtain business importance coefficient; Computing equipment lost efficacy the loss brought; The loss brought according to power fail rate and equipment failure obtains the Risk-warning value R of power supply
p; When the Risk-warning value of described power supply is higher than predetermined value, send alarm.Effectively can carry out evaluation of risk to the operation of the power-supply system of electric power communication device, for the maintenance of electric power communication device and O&M provide scientific evaluation, for the decision-making of regular inspection plan and standby redundancy buying provides Data support, effectively reduce cost of equipment maintenance.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to power telecom network safety monitoring field, particularly relate to a kind of power supply method for prewarning risk of electric power communication device.
Background technology
Power telecom network is in order to ensure that the safe and stable operation of electric system arises at the historic moment.It is collectively referred to as by people the three large pillars that power system safety and stability runs with the safety stabilization control system of electric system, dispatch automated system.At present, power telecom network power network schedule automation especially, the network operation marketization and the basis of management modernization, being the important means guaranteeing power grid security, stable, economical operation, is the important infrastructure of electric system.
At present, the research of communication network Risk-warning mainly concentrates on power telecom network aspect, power telecom network Risk-warning is each resource disappearance or suffer to destroy the prospective damage that causes whole system and network in research network, be to threatening, tender spots and the early warning of risk size that brings thus.
But in communication network, be unable to do without support and the operation of each node device, every platform equipment dependability directly has influence on the overall operation situation of communication network, power telecom network Risk-warning, mainly towards the early warning of communication service, can dispatch for communication service the reference data providing quantification.Once power supply system for communications fault causes the power failure to communication facilities, communication facilities just cannot run, telecommunication circuit interruption, communication system paralysis will be caused, thus cause great economic and social benefit to lose, current power telecom network early warning, cannot provide support for the maintenance of electric power communication device and maintenance.
Summary of the invention
The present invention proposes a kind of power supply method for prewarning risk of electric power communication device, effectively can carry out evaluation of risk to the operation of the power-supply system of electric power communication device, for the maintenance of electric power communication device and O&M provide scientific evaluation, for the decision-making of regular inspection plan and standby redundancy buying provides Data support, effectively reduce cost of equipment maintenance.
The technical scheme adopted:
A power supply method for prewarning risk for electric power communication device, comprises step:
Obtain power supply historic defects situation, obtain power supply defect situation coefficient M
p;
Obtain power supply environment for use data, obtain environmental coefficient N
w;
According to formula P
power=[1-(1-M
p× N
w× P)
α (Y-1)]
robtain power fail rate; Wherein, P
powerfor power fail rate; Y is power supply tenure of use; α is greater than 0 coefficient being less than 1; R is power configuration redundancy rate; P is power supply basic failure rate;
Obtain the equipment importance factor of electric power communication device, obtain equipment important coefficient;
Obtain the business importance factor of all business that electric power communication device carries, obtain business importance coefficient;
According to formula LE
i=T
iw
ih
i(ni1
i1× u
i1/ L
i+ n
i2× u
i1/ L
i+ ... + n
ij× u
ij/ L
i) computing equipment lost efficacy the loss brought;
Wherein, LE
ifor the loss that equipment failure brings, L
iit is the number of routes of i-th electric power communication device; H
ibe the network management function coefficient of i-th electric power communication device, when there being network management function, value is 1; When not having network management function, value is 1.1; w
iit is the equipment important coefficient of i-th electric power communication device; n
ijit is the business importance coefficient of a jth business in i-th electric power communication device; u
ijit is the number of users of a jth business in i-th electric power communication device; T
iit is the power supply maintenance duration of i-th electric power communication device;
According to R
p=P
power× LE
iobtain the Risk-warning value R of power supply
p;
When the Risk-warning value of described power supply is higher than predetermined value, send alarm.
From the power supply historical data base of power telecom network in the present invention, the power supply basic failure rate obtaining power supply historic defects situation, power supply environment for use data, the configuration record of power supply, the years already spent of power supply and count, obtains the failure rate of the power supply of power telecom network; And from the power supply historical data base of power telecom network, obtain the number of routes of electric power communication device, network management function coefficient, equipment important coefficient, business importance coefficient and power supply maintenance duration, obtain the loss that equipment failure brings; Thus according to the loss that power fail rate and equipment failure are brought, obtain power supply Risk-warning value; When power supply Risk-warning value exceeds predetermined value, send alarm; Scientific evaluation can be provided for the maintenance of electric power communication device and O&M, for the decision-making of regular inspection plan and standby redundancy buying provides Data support, effectively reduce cost of equipment maintenance.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is an implementing procedure figure of the present invention.
Embodiment
The present invention proposes a kind of power supply method for prewarning risk of electric power communication device, and its implementing procedure with reference to figure 1, can comprise step:
S1, acquisition power supply historic defects situation, obtain power supply defect situation coefficient;
Obtain power supply historic defects situation, obtain power supply defect situation coefficient M
p; Wherein, power supply historic defects situation can obtain in database from system.The defect that power supply occurs, can be divided into by the order of severity; Promptly, the several types such as great, general defect.
Concrete, utilize formula M
p=γ × M calculates power supply defect situation coefficient M
p;
Wherein, when the number of times of power supply generation defect is less than or equal to 1, coefficient gamma value is 1, and when the number of times of power supply generation defect is greater than 1, coefficient gamma value is 3; The time limit of power failure after 3 years guarantee periods, then coefficient M=1;
The time limit of power failure is under warranty, then the value mode of M can be determined in the following manner: the guarantee period is m, and the h that is under warranty breaks down, then M=m/h.
S2, acquisition power supply environment for use data, obtain environmental coefficient;
Power supply environment for use data also can obtain from the database system; Whether conditions dictate is met, computing environment coefficient N according to facility environment temperature, ambient humidity, environment dust and equipment ground
w, as shown in the table;
S3, acquisition power fail rate;
According to formula P
power=[1-(1-M
p* N
w* P)
α (Y-1)]
robtain power fail rate; Wherein, P
powerfor power fail rate; Y is power supply tenure of use; α is greater than 0 coefficient being less than 1; R is power configuration redundancy rate; P is power supply basic failure rate;
Power supply tenure of use, power configuration redundancy rate and power supply basic failure rate can obtain by database from system.
As: according to the historical statistical data of unit type series of power fault or defect, or the familial defect data such as the defect situation that provides of producer, statistics obtains power supply basic failure rate.
For annual failure condition as power supply basic failure rate P:
(1) certain the range of models equipment put into operation in a certain calendar year is established to have X
iplatform, the type equipment occurs that power fail number of times is Y
i, this range of models device power supply (DPS) failure rate is Y then
i/ X
i;
(2) according to Y year by year
i/ X
ivalue, calculates this range of models device power supply (DPS) basic failure rate
The equipment importance factor of S4, acquisition electric power communication device, obtains equipment important coefficient;
The equipment importance factor of electric power communication device can obtain from the database system; Concrete, comprise the steps:
Obtain the equipment importance factor of electric power communication device;
The first quantized value between every two equipment importance factors is obtained according to 1-9 proportion quotiety method;
According to the first quantized value development of judgment matrix;
Calculate the Maximum characteristic root of judgment matrix;
Obtain the proper vector of the Maximum characteristic root of judgment matrix, be then normalized and obtain equipment important coefficient.
The equipment importance factor of electric power communication device comprises: residing network type, nodal line way, existing equipment capacity and geographic position etc.
An object lesson: treatedly to obtain, 4 kinds of equipment importance factors: residing network type A, nodal line way B, existing equipment capacity E, geographic position D;
The weight of equipment importance can be given a mark by several professional.Through predefine, the weight of each equipment importance factor is as follows:
A is important a little relative to B; A is obviously important relative to E; A relative to D between obviously important and important a little; B is important a little relative to E; B relative to D between no less important and important a little between; D is important a little relative to E;
Then utilize 1-9 scaling law, obtain the quantized value between two between equipment importance factor; Wherein the 1-9 scaling law table of comparisons is as follows:
As follows according to quantized value structural matrix C:
Then following steps are carried out:
(1) the product Bi of each row element of judgment matrix is calculated;
(2) calculate the n th Root of Bi, wherein n is the number of equipment importance factor;
(3) the vectorial b=(b1, b2, b3, b4) of the product of each row element of judgment matrix can be obtained according to (1) and (2);
(4) Maximum characteristic root of judgment matrix C is calculated
wherein (cb
t)
ivectorial cb
ti-th element, b
ii-th element of the vector of the product of each row element.Calculate λ
max=4.1109;
(5) above-mentioned vectorial b is normalized: b '=b/ λ
maxobtain the proper vector of above-mentioned judgment matrix; B '=[0.5414,0.2313,0.0751,0.1522];
This proper vector is the equipment important coefficient of this electric power communication device.
In addition, because equipment importance can be made up of many factors; As: geographic position D is subject to central station K1,500 kilovolts of station K2,220 kilovolts of station K3, the impact of less than the 220 kilovolts several factors of station K4;
Existing equipment capacity E is subject to large capacity equipment E1, middle storage device E2, the impact of low capacity equipment E3;
To following several equipment importance factor: existing equipment capacity E, geographic position D; Before considering, also need to consider existing equipment capacity E, each factor in the D of geographic position; Concrete,
For geographic position D and existing equipment capacity E for major consideration, geographic position also needs to consider as central station K1,500 kilovolts of station K2,220 kilovolts of stations K3, less than the 220 kilovolts K4 that stand, place capacity also needs to consider large capacity equipment E1, middle storage device E2, low capacity equipment E3.
First geographic position D and existing equipment capacity E is given a mark according to importance between two, constructs importance judgment matrix C1 between the two:
The normalized weight calculating D and E according to step (1) to (5) is respectively 0.8 and 0.2.
Again according to central station K1,500 kilovolts of station K2,220 kilovolts of station K3, between less than 220 kilovolts station K4, importance is given a mark between two, constructs important ratio comparatively Matrix C 2, and in matrix, numerical value is given a mark by professional and drawn:
The normalized weight calculating K1, K2, K3, K4 according to step (1) to (5) is respectively 0.65,0.24,0.07 and 0.04.
Again according to large capacity equipment E1, middle storage device E2, between low capacity equipment E3, importance is given a mark between two, constructs important ratio comparatively Matrix C 3, and in matrix, numerical value is given a mark by professional and drawn:
According to (1)---the normalized weight that the step of (5) calculates E1, E2 and E3 is respectively 0.73,0.19 and 0.08.
According to the normalization weights calculated above, calculate the weight of various equipment, weights as central station large capacity equipment (K1E1) are: D × K1+E × E1=0.8 × 0.65+0.2 × 0.73=0.67, and this value is as central station large capacity equipment equipment (K1E1) important coefficient.
The business importance factor of all business that S5, acquisition electric power communication device carry, obtains business importance coefficient;
Investigate from real-time, validity and security all business that electric power communication device carries to comprise: the business such as stable, relay protection, video, phone; Concrete, the step obtaining business importance coefficient comprises:
Obtain the business importance factor of all business that electric power communication device carries;
The second quantized value between every two business importance factors is obtained according to 1-9 proportion quotiety method;
According to the second quantized value development of judgment matrix;
Calculate the Maximum characteristic root of judgment matrix;
Obtain the proper vector of the Maximum characteristic root of judgment matrix, be then normalized and obtain business importance coefficient.
In process and S4 step, equipment important coefficient is similar, repeats no more herein.
The loss that S6, acquisition equipment failure bring;
Following data can also be obtained: the number of routes of electric power communication device, the network management function coefficient of electric power communication device from system database; The number of users of each business in electric power communication device; The power supply maintenance duration of electric power communication device;
(1) number of users of each business in electric power communication device is obtained
According to the service condition of stable, relay protection, video, each business of phone, determine number of users or flow u
ij(i=1,2 ...); As a jth business, the maximum number of user amount that can open according to business is as u
ij.
(2) number of routes of electric power communication device is obtained
From database, obtain the routing table of electric power communication device; According to routing table, statistics route quantity.
(3) the network management function coefficient of electric power communication device is obtained
Reading system database, monitors according to local terminal and remote network management, manipulation function situation, obtains network management function coefficient H
i, have webmaster then H
i=1; There is no webmaster, then H
iit is the real number of 1.1 to 1.2.
(4) the power supply maintenance duration of electric power communication device is obtained;
According to the power supply repair recorded in system database; By several professional's experience or in the past servicing time statistical value, the maximum duration of maintenance is estimated, obtains and determine maintenance duration T
i.
One, according to have spare part at the scene, the situation such as spare part, factory repair need be allocated, maximal value setting is carried out to the maintenance duration of different electrical power, as shown in the table.
Two, duration can be keeped in repair by the power supply of the electric power communication device of one of three kinds of methods acquisition below:
1, estimate maintenance duration according to professional's experience, by weighted mean operation, obtain averaged power spectrum duration;
2, basis similar maintenance record in the past, the computing that is averaged obtains;
3, the maintenance of equipment provided according to producer ensures to obtain.
According to averaged power spectrum duration, can the power supply maintenance duration T of electric power communication device
i.
So, according to formula LE
i=T
iw
ih
i(n
i1× u
i1/ L
i+ n
i2× u
i1/ L
i+ ... + n
ij× u
ij/ L
i) can to lose efficacy the loss brought by computing equipment;
Wherein, LE
ifor the loss that equipment failure brings, L
iit is the number of routes of i-th electric power communication device; H
ibe the network management function coefficient of i-th electric power communication device, when there being network management function, value is 1; When not having network management function, value is 1.1; w
iit is the equipment important coefficient of i-th electric power communication device; n
ijit is the business importance coefficient of a jth business in i-th electric power communication device; u
ijit is the number of users of a jth business in i-th electric power communication device; T
iit is the power supply maintenance duration of i-th electric power communication device.
S7, the loss brought according to power fail rate and equipment failure obtain the Risk-warning value of power supply;
According to R
p=P
power× LE
iobtain the Risk-warning value R of power supply
p.
S8, when the Risk-warning value of power supply is higher than predetermined value, send alarm.
The alarm sent can be light prompt, auditory tone cues; When the Risk-warning value of power supply is higher than predetermined value, can also automatically adjust according to the program preset further.
From the power supply historical data base of power telecom network in the present invention, the power supply basic failure rate obtaining power supply historic defects situation, power supply environment for use data, the configuration record of power supply, the years already spent of power supply and count, obtains the failure rate of the power supply of power telecom network; And from the power supply historical data base of power telecom network, obtain the number of routes of electric power communication device, network management function coefficient, equipment important coefficient, business importance coefficient and power supply maintenance duration, obtain the loss that equipment failure brings; Thus according to the loss that power fail rate and equipment failure are brought, obtain power supply Risk-warning value; When power supply Risk-warning value exceeds predetermined value, send alarm; Scientific evaluation can be provided for the maintenance of electric power communication device and O&M, for the decision-making of regular inspection plan and standby redundancy buying provides Data support, effectively reduce cost of equipment maintenance.
The above embodiment only have expressed several embodiment of the present invention, and it describes comparatively concrete and detailed, but therefore can not be interpreted as the restriction to the scope of the claims of the present invention.It should be pointed out that for the person of ordinary skill of the art, without departing from the inventive concept of the premise, can also make some distortion and improvement, these all belong to protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, the protection domain of patent of the present invention should be as the criterion with claims.
Claims (1)
1. a power supply method for prewarning risk for electric power communication device, is characterized in that, comprise step:
Obtain power supply historic defects situation, obtain power supply defect situation coefficient M
p;
Obtain power supply environment for use data, obtain environmental coefficient N
w;
According to formula P
power=[1-(1-M
p× N
w× P)
α (Y-1)]
robtain power fail rate; Wherein, P
powerfor power fail rate; Y is power supply tenure of use; α is greater than 0 coefficient being less than 1; R is power configuration redundancy rate; P is power supply basic failure rate;
Obtain the equipment importance factor of electric power communication device, obtain equipment important coefficient;
Obtain the business importance factor of all business that electric power communication device carries, obtain business importance coefficient;
According to formula LE
i=T
iw
ih
i(n
i1× u
i1/ L
i+ n
i2× u
i1/ L
i+ ... + n
ij× u
ij/ L
i) computing equipment lost efficacy the loss brought;
Wherein, LE
ifor the loss that equipment failure brings, L
iit is the number of routes of i-th electric power communication device; H
ibe the network management function coefficient of i-th electric power communication device, when there being network management function, value is 1; When not having network management function, value is 1.1; w
iit is the equipment important coefficient of i-th electric power communication device; n
ijit is the business importance coefficient of a jth business in i-th electric power communication device; u
ijit is the number of users of a jth business in i-th electric power communication device; T
iit is the power supply maintenance duration of i-th electric power communication device;
According to R
p=P
power× LE
iobtain the Risk-warning value R of power supply
p;
When the Risk-warning value of described power supply is higher than predetermined value, send alarm;
Wherein, described acquisition power supply historic defects situation, obtains power supply defect situation coefficient M
pstep comprise:
Utilize formula M
p=γ × M calculates power supply defect situation coefficient;
Wherein, M
pfor power supply defect situation coefficient, when the number of times of power supply generation defect is less than or equal to 1, coefficient gamma value is 1, and when the number of times of power supply generation defect is greater than 1, coefficient gamma value is 3; The time limit of power failure after 3 years guarantee periods, then coefficient M=1; The time limit of power failure is under warranty, then the value mode of M can be determined in the following manner: the guarantee period is m, and the h that is under warranty breaks down, then M=m/h;
Described acquisition power supply environment for use data, obtain environmental coefficient N
wstep comprise:
According to described power supply environment for use data, when the environmental data that described power supply uses meets default environmental baseline, environmental coefficient N
wvalue is 1; Otherwise, described environmental coefficient N
wvalue is 3;
The equipment importance factor of described acquisition electric power communication device, the step obtaining equipment important coefficient comprises:
Obtain the equipment importance factor of electric power communication device;
The first quantized value between every two described equipment importance factors is obtained according to 1-9 proportion quotiety method;
According to described first quantized value development of judgment matrix;
Calculate the Maximum characteristic root of described judgment matrix;
Obtain the proper vector of the Maximum characteristic root of described judgment matrix, be then normalized and obtain equipment important coefficient;
The business importance factor of all business that described acquisition electric power communication device carries, the step obtaining business importance coefficient comprises:
Obtain the business importance factor of all business that electric power communication device carries;
The second quantized value between every two described business importance factors is obtained according to 1-9 proportion quotiety method;
According to described second quantized value development of judgment matrix;
Calculate the Maximum characteristic root of described judgment matrix;
Obtain the proper vector of the Maximum characteristic root of described judgment matrix, be then normalized and obtain business importance coefficient.
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| CN103325017B (en) * | 2013-06-28 | 2016-05-11 | 广东电网公司电力调度控制中心 | A kind of technical reformation method of power communication system and system |
| CN103647677B (en) * | 2013-09-24 | 2017-02-08 | 广东电网公司佛山供电局 | Power communication network state detection method |
| CN104050373B (en) * | 2014-06-19 | 2017-07-14 | 国家电网公司 | The security risk quantitative estimation method of PCM equipment in a kind of power communication |
| CN106845678A (en) * | 2016-12-19 | 2017-06-13 | 国家电网公司 | A kind of power communication spare part resource the whole network integration dynamic adaptation method and device |
| CN110954849B (en) * | 2019-11-18 | 2021-03-12 | 珠海格力电器股份有限公司 | Abnormity detection system and method for electrical equipment and monitoring terminal |
| CN113886757A (en) * | 2021-08-30 | 2022-01-04 | 国网山东省电力公司信息通信公司 | Power communication network PTN network service operation reliability assessment method |
| CN115022054B (en) * | 2022-06-09 | 2024-04-30 | 安天科技集团股份有限公司 | Network attack springboard importance assessment method, system, electronic equipment and storage medium |
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