CN103104291A - Multi-parameter aggregative indicator forecasting method of coal petrography dynamic disaster - Google Patents

Abstract

A multi-parameter aggregative indicator forecasting method of a coal petrography dynamic disaster is suitable for forecasting coal petrography dynamic disasters such as outburst of coal and gas and rock bust of coal and gas in a coal mine excavating process. When various index prediction methods are coupled in the same monitoring system, problems such as how to select importance degrees of various indicators and how to determine a critical value of the various indicators are produced. According to amplitude values of four indicators including electromagnetic radiation, slight shock, acoustic emission and gas density, an average value of the amplitude values in a normal level and the maximum value of the amplitude values of the four indicators when the coal petrography dynamic disasters happen at any moment, the multi-parameter aggregative indicator forecasting method of the coal petrography dynamic disaster determines a single indicator hazard index of the four indicators at the moment. The value of single index hazard index determines single index weights of the four indicators, and therefore an aggregative indicator hazard index of the four indicators is calculated, and finally a danger class of the coal petrography dynamic disaster which happens in an excavating roadway is determined according to the value of the aggregative indicator hazard index. The multi-parameter aggregative indicator forecasting method of the coal petrography dynamic disaster provides a critical value determination method and an early warning standard for the research and development of a multi-parameter monitoring system of the coal petrography dynamic disaster.

Description

A kind of multi-parameter integrated index prediction method of coal rock dynamic disaster

Technical field

The invention belongs to the coal exploitation field in energy technology, be applicable to predict the coal rock dynamic disaster such as coal and Gas Outburst and bump in Coal mine excavation.

Background technology

The time that coal rock dynamic disaster occurs, place, zone, focus etc. have randomness, complicated variety and sudden, make the prediction work of coal rock dynamic disaster become very difficult complicated, are the global problems that needs to be resolved hurrily.The key of the prediction work of coal rock dynamic disaster is the selection of Forecasting Methodology.Chinese scholars has proposed many Forecasting Methodologies through research for many years.The coal rock dynamic disaster Forecasting Methodology can be divided into index prediction method and continuous predicted method according to the continuity of forecasting process.Compare with the index prediction method, continuously predicted method has noncontact, continuity, does not disturb the advantage such as the normal production in colliery, develops into gradually the main flow of coal rock dynamic disaster Forecasting Methodology.

Continuous prediction method mainly contains electromagnetic radiation, microseism, acoustic emission and dynamic gas emission method etc.At present the coal rock dynamic disaster continuous monitor system that uses of colliery generally is special-purpose monitoring system, and its prediction index is single, the scope of application is limited, and has the problem such as fail to report, reliability is low.The many reference amounts prognoses system that several different methods is combined can improve the accuracy of prediction, reduces rate of failing to report.Yet each prediction index has its distinctive forecasting mechanism, and multiple single index predicted method is coupling in same monitoring system, can produce just how each index weight is chosen and the problem such as threshold how to confirm.Therefore, demand proposing a kind of multi-parameter integrated index prediction method that can determine different index weights and threshold urgently.

Summary of the invention

The present invention proposes a kind of multi-parameter integrated index prediction method of coal rock dynamic disaster, is intended to solve each index weight and threshold On The Choice in multiple coal rock dynamic disaster continuous prediction method coupling process.

For achieving the above object, the present invention adopts following technical scheme:

Step 1: the average A that adds up respectively the amplitude under electromagnetic radiation, microseism, acoustic emission and four kinds of index normal levels of gas density ₀The maximum value A of four kinds of index amplitudes during with the generation coal rock dynamic disaster _max, calculate each index maximum value A _maxWith average A ₀Between difference (A _max-A ₀);

Step 2: for the amplitude A (t) of electromagnetic radiation, microseism, acoustic emission and the four kinds of indexs of gas density of arbitrary moment t, calculate the absolute value of A (t) | A (t) | and A ₀Difference, and difference is asked absolute value || A (t) |-A ₀|, then obtain respectively four kinds of indexs || A (t) |-A ₀| with (A _max-A ₀) ratio.This ratio is single index hazard index W (t).

Step 3: determine weight separately according to the size of four kinds of single index hazard index W (t), hazard index W (t) size be positioned at [0,0.25), [0.25,0.5), [0.5,0.75), [0.75,1] the weight respectively 0.25 of corresponding index, 0.5,0.75,1.

Step 4: four kinds of single index hazard index W (t) be multiply by each self-corresponding weight f (t), and the overall target hazard index W that namely obtains four kinds of indexs combines (t).According to overall target hazard index W combine (t) size be positioned at [0,0.25), [0.25,0.5), [0.5,0.75), the situation of [0.75,1], t digging constantly tunnel danger is divided into safe, safer, more dangerous and dangerous four grades.Safe class represents that mining work can normally carry out; Represent in mining process than safe class, should strengthen the monitoring and prediction of coal rock dynamic disaster danger; In mining work, answer the reinforced region prophylactico-therapeutic measures than the danger classes representative, carry out simultaneously monitoring and prediction, can tunnel when the monitoring and prediction result reaches safe coefficient; After the regional control measure is taked in the danger classes representative, after thinking that through check measure is effective, again take local control's measure, carry out simultaneously monitoring and prediction, can tunnel when the monitoring and prediction result reaches safe coefficient.

The invention has the beneficial effects as follows, utilize four kinds of coal rock dynamic disaster index coupling predictions can improve the accuracy of getting working face the place ahead coal rock dynamic disaster prediction, and providing technical foundation for the coal rock dynamic disaster many indexes merges, the research and development that also can be coal rock dynamic disaster many reference amounts monitoring system simultaneously provide threshold to determine method and early warning standard.

The specific embodiment

The coal rock dynamic disaster monitoring index mainly comprises four kinds of electromagnetic radiation, microseism, acoustic emission and gas densities.According to mine field measurement data, add up respectively the average A of the amplitude absolute value under electromagnetic radiation, microseism, acoustic emission and four kinds of index normal levels of gas density ₀The maximum value A of four kinds of index amplitudes during with the generation coal rock dynamic disaster _max

For the arbitrary index in electromagnetic radiation, microseism, acoustic emission and four kinds of indexs of gas density, single index hazard index W (t) is determined by formula (1):

$W\left(t\right)=\frac{\left|\right|A\left(t\right)|-A_0|}{A_{\max }-A_0}---\left(1\right)$

In formula, W (t) expression single index hazard index, it is worth between 0～1;

A (t) expression t is the amplitude of index constantly;

A ₀Be expressed as the average of index amplitude, its value is determined according to mine measured data statistics;

A _maxThe maximum value of expression index amplitude, its value is determined according to mine measured data statistics.

The overall target design formulas of four kinds of indexs is determined by formula (2):

$W\left(t\right)=\underset{i=1}{\overset{4}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{W}_i\left(t\right)\·f_i\left(t\right)---\left(2\right)$

In formula, W _Combine(t) expression t moment overall target hazard index;

I represents i index in electromagnetic radiation, microseism, acoustic emission and gas density;

W _i(t) hazard index of expression t moment i index, its value is calculated by formula (1);

f _i(t) weight of expression t moment i index, its value is chosen according to table 1.

Table 1t is each index weights option table constantly

Single index value scope	0≤W i(t)＜0.25	0.25≤W i(t)＜0.5	0.5≤W i(t)＜0.75	0.75≤W i(t)≤1
					Weight (f i(t))	0.25	0.5	0.75	1

According to the method for aggregative indicator, draw t overall target hazard index W constantly _Combine(t), according to W _Combine(t) size of value also is divided into degree of danger safe, safer, more dangerous and dangerous four grades, and its criterion is according to shown in table 2.

The criterion of table 2 overall target degree of danger

Degree of danger	Safety	Safer	More dangerous	Dangerous
					Criterion	0≤W i(t)＜0.25	0.25≤W i(t)＜0.5	0.5≤W i(t)＜0.75	W i(t)≥0.75

The meaning of the overall target degree of danger in table 2 and illustrate as shown in table 3.

Meaning and explanation that table 3 index is judged

Claims (3)

1. multi-parameter integrated index prediction method of coal rock dynamic disaster is characterized in that: when utilizing the average of the amplitude under electromagnetic radiation, microseism, acoustic emission and the arbitrary moment amplitude of four kinds of indexs of gas density, normal level and coal rock dynamic disaster occuring, three numerical value of maximum value of four kinds of index amplitudes are determined the single index hazard index; Then determine each single index weight according to the single index hazard index, and then calculate the overall target hazard index; Large young pathbreaker's risk regionalization according to hazard index is safe, safer, more dangerous and dangerous four ranks at last.

2. single index hazard index according to claim 1 is characterized in that: for arbitrary index wherein, its hazard index W (t) is by formula

Determine, hazard index is divided into four intervals, respectively corresponding four kinds of danger classess.

3. the method for aggregative indicator according to claim 1, is characterized in that: method of aggregative indicator hazard index W _Combine(t) by formula

Determine, hazard index is divided into four intervals, respectively corresponding four kinds of danger classess.