CN102668846B - Crop low-temperature disaster analysis method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a crop low-temperature disaster analysis method, which relates to the crop anti-disaster technology, in particular to a crop low-temperature disaster early warning technology. The analysis method analyzes the crop low-temperature disaster condition by accumulating the low-temperature indexes Ti according to the real-time meteorological data, the low-temperature sensitivity degree index and the crop data connection at each growth and childbearing stage of the crop. The low-temperature disaster analysis method disclosed by the invention can analyze the damage degree of the crop caused by low-temperature disaster in time, and provides reliable and quantitative scientific data for taking effective disaster reduction and remedial measures.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the crops prevention technique, especially a kind of farming Low temperature disaster early warning technology.
Background technology
China is vast in territory, and climate type is complicated, and the Low temperature disaster type is different, and the crop species that affected by Low temperature disaster is a lot, and disaster-stricken object is from cereal crops, economic crops, to fruit tree and vegetable, even poultry industry and aquatic products industry etc. is also had in various degree impact.Be both various the coercing or disaster of being caused by the low temperature phenomenon, but also be not quite similar at aspects such as causing calamity mechanism, defense technique, employing countermeasure, even its appellation of disaster in zones of different or Various Seasonal generation is also obviously different.Therefore need the scientific knowledge Low temperature disaster, could promote like this development of the cause of preventing and reducing natural disasters.
Agricultural production is to be subjected to one of industry that meteorological disaster has the greatest impact.From the nineties in 20th century, the economic loss that the annual meteorological disaster of China causes surpasses hundred billion yuans, accounts for GDP 3%-6%, account for the 15%-20% of whole agriculture GDP, cause 10,000,000,000 kilograms to 20,000,000,000 kilograms of grain drop in production, compared with developed countries, loss is wanted large tens times.Agricultural production poor infrastructure due to current overall context, the ability of defence agrometeorological hazard, dependence to meteorological environment is large, be not completely free of the situation of living at the mercy of the elements, agricultural production very easily is subject to the impact of low temperature and Droughts, and then the sustainable and stable development of harm grain security and national economy.
Agrometeorological hazard and meteorological disaster are incomplete same.Except the ANOMALOUS VARIATIONS of meteorological key element itself, the generation of agrometeorological hazard, degree, to affect size also multifactor closely related with crop species, developmental stage of living in and growth conditions, soil moisture, control measures etc.
Along with Global climate change, extreme weather occurs extremely, and agrometeorological hazard frequently occurs, and casualty loss increases year by year.The statistics of nearly 5 years shows, because of the impact of agrometeorological hazard, China grain disaster area every year on average reaches 0.52 hundred million hectare, and grain loss is over 50,000,000,000 kilograms.The major weather disaster that affects agricultural production has arid, low temperature, flood, hail etc., every have agrometeorological hazard in various degree to occur every year, meteorological disaster accounts for natural calamity more than 80%, wherein low temperature, Droughts account for more than 60% of meteorological disaster, and damaging range is wide, occurrence frequency is high, chain reaction is remarkable, the condition of a disaster occurs to weigh, the development of the whole agricultural production of serious threat.Along with global warming, agricultural is prevented and reduced natural disasters and is faced with severeer situation, need further research agrometeorological hazard pests occurrence rule and monitoring and pre-alarming method, set up agrometeorological hazard evaluation criteria and index system, for agricultural sustainable development provides technical support.
Low temperature disaster essence is the limiting value that temperature drops to the crop normal growth, and plant growth is produced harm, causes the process of the underproduction and economic loss.Crops are different at each growth and development stage to requirement and the accommodation of temperature environment, and most of crops are blooming breeding period, to low-temperature sensitive, in relative insensitivity in seedling stage, and seedling stage be injured, the often improvement by the latter temperature condition, strengthening management is compensated.Prescribe a time limit when temperature drops under the plant growth preference temperature, at first cause physiology to coerce to crop, show as delay or stop growing, even cause injury in various degree; If the temperature continuous decrease is also kept certain hour, may be to doing deposits yields physics and modal damage, until dead.Usually on agricultural weather, this class phenomenon is referred to as " Low temperature disaster ".
In recent years, at crop growth period, due to variations in temperature sharply, crop subjects to be acted upon by temperature changes, particularly the disasters such as cold wave, low temperature, cold in the late spring work the mischief larger.When low temperature occurring, can produce irreversible impact to plant growth at short notice.the main three basic point temperature that adopt routine in plant growth at present and temperature relation, the optimum temperature of namely growing, growth lower limit temperature and the temperature of being injured are as analyzing the crop adaptive criteria, but the different growing of Different Crop reflects significant difference to low temperature, therefore, draw crop and be seeded into each puberty temperature influence degree of ripening period, determine the Low temperature disaster diagnosis, warning index and method, setting up the different vegetative stage Low temperature disaster of crop early warning technology is Low temperature disaster early warning emphasis, can promote Low temperature disaster defence capability and technical merit, improve the Low temperature disaster monitoring, the accuracy rate of early warning and ageing, alleviate Low temperature disaster to the impact of grain-production, promote the agricultural production sustainable development, Guarantee Grain Production safety.
Summary of the invention
For the problems referred to above, the present invention proposes a kind of crop dynamically can the tracking and early warning the reflection of low temperature each breeding time, the Low temperature disaster analytical method that can analyze the historical crop situation of being injured simultaneously.
Crop Low temperature disaster analytical method of the present invention, it is characterized in that the method is that each is grown breeding time crop, be connected by real-time meteorological data, low-temperature sensitive level index and crop data, adopt accumulation low temperature index Ti index to analyze the crop Low temperature disaster, wherein:
In real time meteorological data be in plant growth breeding time every day survey the minimum air temperature, this actual measurement minimum air temperature forms real-time minimum air temperature curve;
The low-temperature sensitive level index is the temperature that is limited by the plant growth lower limit temperature, and Different Crop has different growth lower limit temperatures in different growths breeding time, and it is interval that this index forms the plant growth lower limit temperature;
The crop data are in the plant growth growing process of actual measurement, the crop growth phase of actual observation and the exact date of this breeding time take sowing time as initial day, calculate the plant growth number of days, and during to crop harvesting, the number of days that stops growing calculates;
The computational methods of accumulation low temperature index Ti are different according to the kind of crop, and the computational methods of wheat or broad bean are
, the computational methods of paddy rice are
, wherein:
Be the duration;
Be growth lower limit temperature coefficient;
Wheat or broad bean:
Paddy rice:
；
Wherein:
Described plant growth lower limit temperature
With the plant growth optimum temperature
Different according to crop species and different, wheat, broad bean, paddy rice
,
The value occurrence is:
Can calculate the accumulation low temperature index of each temperature grade and various durations according to method of the present invention
Value, according to
Value can judge the accumulation low temperature index influence index interval of wheat, broad bean, paddy rice each breeding time and affect situation.Consider wheat, broad bean, rice growing season Climatic, to the susceptibility of low temperature reflection, and the biological property of self, the low temperature effect grade of wheat, broad bean is divided into 5 grades, paddy rice is affected grade be divided into 4 grades.During wheat, broad bean, paddy rice low index influence index interval and influence degree are listed in the table below respectively:
Wheat accumulation low temperature index influence index interval and influence degree:
Broad bean accumulation low temperature index influence index interval and influence degree:
Paddy rice accumulation low temperature index influence index interval and influence degree:
。
Low temperature disaster analytical method of the present invention can in time be made analysis with Low temperature disaster to the extent of injury of crop, provides reliable, quantitative scientific basis for taking effective mitigation and remedial measure.
Figure of description
Fig. 1 is that the embodiment of the present invention 1 is Low-temperature Wheat disaster analysis schematic diagram.
Fig. 2 is that the embodiment of the present invention 2 is analyzed schematic diagram for the broad bean Low temperature disaster.
Fig. 3 is that the embodiment of the present invention 3 is paddy rice low disaster analysis schematic diagram.
Specific embodiment
Embodiment 1: take wheat in 1986 as example, analyze the Low-temperature Wheat disaster, realize according to the following steps:
⑴ set wheat growth number of days, breeding time
According to 1972-2011 land for growing field crops actual observation data statistics in 30 years, in growth season of wheat, the growth number of days was at about 180-190 days.By China Meteorological Administration's " agrometeorological observation standard ", be divided in whole growth season of wheat for sow, emerge, three leaves, tiller, jointing, booting, heading are bloomed, 10 breeding times of milking maturity, maturation.Because wheat is sowing in the first year, next year gathers in the crops, and therefore, the wheat time records to gather in the crops and is as the criterion in year.The wheat growth number of days was 181 days in 1986, each exact date breeding time such as following table:
| Breeding time | Date (yyyy-mm-dd) |
| Sowing time | 1985-10-22 |
| Seeding stage | 1985-10-31 |
| Tri-leaf period | 1985-11-15 |
| Tillering stage | 1985-11-24 |
| Shooting stage | 1985-12-31 |
| Booting stage | 1986-02-12 |
| Heading stage | 1986-02-25 |
| Flowering stage | 1986-03-01 |
| Be in the milk milk ripe stage | 1986-04-04 |
| Maturing stage | 1986-04-21 |
⑵ record real-time meteorological data
After wheat cultivation, according to surveying the minimum air temperature every day, with growth number of days coupling, make real-time minimum air temperature curve.
⑶ it is regional that delimit the low-temperature sensitive level index
Wheat each of low-temperature sensitive level index as follows breeding time:
Wheat cultivation, emerge, tri-leaf period the lower limit temperature of growing be 5.0 ℃;
It is 2.0 ℃ that Xiao Mai divides the Tiller phase lower limit temperature of growing;
Wheat during jointing stage growth lower limit temperature is 0.0 ℃;
Wheat booting period growth lower limit temperature is 0.0 ℃;
Wheat full heading time growth lower limit temperature is 5.0 ℃;
Wheat milk ripe stage growth lower limit temperature is 5.0 ℃;
Wheat aging time growth lower limit temperature is 10.0 ℃.
⑷ make the crop data
Make according to the crop growth phase of actual observation and the exact date of this breeding time, take sowing time as initial day, calculate the plant growth number of days, during to crop harvesting, the number of days that stops growing calculates.
⑸ calculate accumulation low temperature index and reach and analyze Low temperature disaster
Stages in wheat growth stage, according to its growth lower limit temperature with lower than duration of lower limit temperature, calculate accumulative total low temperature index, and compare with accumulation low temperature index influence index interval in above-mentioned table, can analyze the influence degree that low temperature forms Growth of Wheat and output.If there is low temperature, according to desired values at different levels, with histogram reflection low temperature grade and influence degree.
In wheat cultivation to booting stage 12 real time temperatures appear lower than the wheat growth temperature of being injured, wherein, on December 21st, 1985 to December 28, the wheat tillering phase, when the growth number of days is 62-66 days, according to above-mentioned computing formula, calculate degree/day and accumulation low temperature index such as following table December 21 to December 28 in 1985:
| Date (yyyy-mm-dd) | The minimum air temperature (℃) | The Ti index |
| 1985-12-21 | 1.2 | 0.00 |
| 1985-12-22 | 0.6 | 0.00 |
| 1985-12-23 | -1.7 | 0.23 |
| 1985-12-24 | -3.0 | 0.95 |
| 1985-12-25 | -2.1 | 1.30 |
| 1985-12-26 | -0.9 | 1.37 |
| 1985-12-27 | -0.2 | 1.37 |
| 1985-12-28 | 0.8 | 0.00 |
February 25, the minimum air temperature is 5.1 ℃, higher than wheat full heading time growth lower limit temperature.But February 26, the minimum air temperature was 3.6 ℃, lower than 5.0 ℃ of wheat full heading time growth lower limit temperatures.When the wheat accumulation low temperature index that calculates reaches the influence index interval, remittance abroad is accumulated low temperature index histogram, along with low temperature intensity increases, accumulation low temperature index post constantly increased, to March 6, accumulation low temperature index is-12.55, according to wheat accumulation low temperature index influence index interval and influence degree, affecting grade is that plant is injured seriously greater than 5 grades, symptom is obvious, and the underproduction is serious.To March 11, the minimum air temperature was 5.3 ℃, and this time chilling process is just removed fully, and whole chilling process has continued 13 days.Low temperature duration, evolution process, the extent of injury are completed reflection in the drawings.
The low temperature of 1986 appears at flowering stage of wheat, causes wheat to be injured seriously, and the average per unit area yield of wheat only has 196kg/ha, and output only has 10% (1980-1985 annual output is 1967.1kg/ha) of 1980-1985 annual output.
Embodiment 2: take broad bean in 2008 as example, analyze the broad bean Low temperature disaster, complete according to the following steps:
⑴ set broad bean growth number of days, breeding time
According to 1972-2011 30 annual data statistics, in growth season of broad bean, the growth number of days is between 175-185 days.By China Meteorological Administration's " agrometeorological observation standard ", whole growth season of broad bean is total sow, emerge, three true leaves, branch, bloom, bear pods, drum, gather in 8 breeding times.Because broad bean is sowing in the first year, next year gathers in the crops, and therefore, the broad bean time records to gather in the crops and is as the criterion in year.Broad bean growth number of days was 179 days in 2008, each exact date breeding time such as following table:
| Breeding time | Date (yyyy-mm-dd) |
| Sowing time | 2007-10-02 |
| Seeding stage | 2007-10-12 |
| Tri-leaf period | 2007-10-25 |
| Branching stage | 2007-11-02 |
| Flowering stage | 2007-12-27 |
| Pod bearing period | 2008-01-09 |
| The drum grain phase | 2008-01-30 |
| Harvest time | 2008-03-29 |
⑵ record real-time meteorological data
After the broad bean sowing, survey the minimum air temperature and growth number of days coupling every day, and make real-time minimum air temperature curve.
⑶ it is regional that delimit the low-temperature sensitive level index
Broad bean each of low-temperature sensitive level index as follows breeding time:
The broad bean lower limit temperature of growing sowing time is 5.0 ℃;
Broad bean seeding stage growth lower limit temperature is 5.0 ℃;
The broad bean lower limit temperature of growing tri-leaf period is 5.0 ℃;
Broad bean branching stage growth lower limit temperature is 5.0 ℃;
The broad bean lower limit temperature of growing flowering stage is 5.0 ℃;
Broad bean pod bearing period growth lower limit temperature is 6.0 ℃;
Broad bean drum grain phase growth lower limit temperature is 6.0 ℃.
⑷ make the crop data
Make according to the crop growth phase of actual observation and the exact date of this breeding time, take sowing time as initial day, calculate the plant growth number of days, during to crop harvesting, the number of days that stops growing calculates.
⑸ calculate accumulation low temperature index and reach and analyze Low temperature disaster
At broad bean stages in breeding time, according to its growth lower limit temperature with lower than duration of lower limit temperature, calculate accumulative total low temperature index, and compare with accumulation low temperature index influence index interval in above-mentioned table, analyze the influence degree that low temperature grows to broad bean and output forms.If there is low temperature, according to desired values at different levels, with histogram reflection low temperature grade and influence degree.
Broad bean in 2008 occurs chilling process 4 times altogether in the drum grain phase in growth season, and influence degree desired value interval according to broad bean accumulation low temperature index influence index, these 4 chilling process a little less than, each chilling process only has 1 day, affects grade and is 1 grade, drum grain speed slows down, and is less to yield effect.Concrete time of occurrence and the minimum air temperature, accumulation low temperature index such as following table:
Embodiment 3: take paddy rice in 2007 as example, and the analyzing rice Low temperature disaster, realize according to the following steps:
⑴ set paddy growth number of days, breeding time
According to 1972-2011 30 annual data statistics, in growth season of paddy rice, the growth number of days is between 170-190 days.By China Meteorological Administration's " agrometeorological observation standard ", whole growth season of paddy rice is total to be sowed, emerge, three leaves, transplant, turn green, tiller, 12 breeding times of jointing, booting, heading, milking maturity, maturation.The paddy growth number of days was 179 days in 2008, each exact date breeding time such as following table:
| Breeding time | Date (yyyy-mm-dd) |
| Sowing time | 2007-03-26 |
| Seeding stage | 2007-04-02 |
| Tri-leaf period | 2007-04-28 |
| Transplanting time | 2007-04-30 |
| Period of seedling establishment | 2007-05-6 |
| Tillering stage | 2007-06-8 |
| Shooting stage | 2007-07-12 |
| Booting stage | 2007-07-28 |
| Heading stage | 2007-08-10 |
| Be in the milk milk ripe stage | 2007-09-03 |
| Maturing stage | 2007-09-21 |
⑵ record real-time meteorological data
After rice growing, survey the minimum air temperature and growth number of days coupling every day, and make real-time minimum air temperature curve.
⑶ it is regional that delimit the low-temperature sensitive level index
Paddy rice each of low-temperature sensitive level index as follows breeding time:
Rice seedling phase growth lower limit temperature is 15.0 ℃;
The paddy rice lower limit temperature of growing tri-leaf period is 15.0 ℃;
Rice striking root phase growth lower limit temperature is 15.0 ℃;
The Shui Dao Fen Tiller phase lower limit temperature of growing is 20.0 ℃;
Paddy rice shooting stage growth lower limit temperature is 18.0 ℃;
Rise's boot period growth lower limit temperature is 18.0 ℃;
The Rice Heading lower limit temperature of growing flowering stage is 20.0 ℃;
Rice milking stage milk ripe stage growth lower limit temperature is 17.0 ℃;
Rice maturity growth lower limit temperature is 17.0 ℃.
⑷ make the crop data
Make according to the crop growth phase of actual observation and the exact date of this breeding time, take sowing time as initial day, calculate the plant growth number of days, during to crop harvesting, the number of days that stops growing calculates.
⑸ calculate accumulation low temperature index and reach and analyze Low temperature disaster
Stages within growth period duration of rice, according to its growth lower limit temperature with lower than duration of lower limit temperature, calculate accumulative total low temperature index, and compare with the accumulation low temperature index influence index interval of above-mentioned table, analyze the influence degree that low temperature forms rice growth and output.If there is low temperature, according to desired values at different levels, with histogram reflection low temperature grade and influence degree.
In rice growing seasons in 2007, in the grouting milk ripe stage, when the growth number of days is 162-164 days and 172-175 days, chilling process appears altogether 2 times, concrete time of occurrence and the minimum air temperature, accumulation low temperature index such as following table:
On September 1st, 2007, the minimum air temperature was 17.3 ℃, higher than 17.0 ℃ of rice milking stage milk ripe stage growth lower limit temperatures; September 2, the minimum air temperature was 16.2 ℃, lower than 17.0 ℃ of rice milking stage milk ripe stage growth lower limit temperatures.When the paddy rice accumulation low temperature index that calculates reaches the influence index interval, remittance abroad accumulation low temperature index histogram, along with low temperature intensity increases, accumulate low temperature index post and constantly increase, according to paddy rice accumulation low temperature index influence index interval and influence degree desired value, current chilling process, accumulation low temperature index is-4.81, affects grade and is 4 grades, rice milking stage is obstructed, affect seed and form, can not normal mature, cause the underproduction.September 7, the minimum air temperature goes back up to 17.2 ℃, and this time chilling process is removed.
On September 9th, 2007, the minimum air temperature is 17.7 ℃, higher than 17.0 ℃ of rice milking stage milk ripe stage growth lower limit temperatures; On September 10th, 2007, the minimum air temperature is 16.1 ℃, lower than 17.0 ℃ of rice milking stage milk ripe stage growth lower limit temperatures.On September 14th, 2007, when the wheat accumulation low temperature index that calculates reached the influence index interval, remittance abroad was accumulated low temperature index histogram, along with low temperature intensity increases, accumulation low temperature index post constantly increases, to September 17, accumulation low temperature index was-9.54, according to paddy rice accumulation low temperature index influence index interval and influence degree, affecting grade is greater than 4 grades, make paddy rice again suffer chilling damage, rice milking stage continues to be obstructed, and causes the underproduction.
Claims (1)
1. crop Low temperature disaster analytical method, is characterized in that the method is that each is grown breeding time crop, is connected by real-time meteorological data, low-temperature sensitive level index and crop data, adopts accumulation low temperature index Ti index to analyze the crop Low temperature disaster, wherein:
In real time meteorological data be in plant growth breeding time every day survey the minimum air temperature, this actual measurement minimum air temperature forms real-time minimum air temperature curve;
The low-temperature sensitive level index is the temperature that is limited by the plant growth lower limit temperature, and Different Crop has different growth lower limit temperatures in different growths breeding time, and it is interval that this index forms the plant growth lower limit temperature;
The crop data are in the plant growth growing process of actual measurement, the crop growth phase of actual observation and the exact date of this breeding time take sowing time as initial day, calculate the plant growth number of days, and during to crop harvesting, the number of days that stops growing calculates;
The computational methods of accumulation low temperature index Ti are different according to the kind of crop, and the computational methods of wheat or broad bean are
, the computational methods of paddy rice are
, wherein:
Mean temperature for observed temperature;
Be the duration;
Wheat or broad bean:
Paddy rice:
Wherein:
Be the plant growth lower limit temperature;
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| CN102110250A (en) * | 2009-12-29 | 2011-06-29 | 中国科学院合肥物质科学研究院 | Method for optimizing and determining disaster-reduction decision scheme |
| CN102414713A (en) * | 2009-05-01 | 2012-04-11 | 诺基亚公司 | Method and apparatus of collecting data for agricultural analysis |
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| JP5034120B2 (en) * | 2009-01-29 | 2012-09-26 | 三菱電機株式会社 | Product assembly adjustment method and assembly adjustment apparatus |
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| GB2452152A (en) * | 2007-08-21 | 2009-02-25 | Nicholas Paul Robinson | Climate processor |
| CN102414713A (en) * | 2009-05-01 | 2012-04-11 | 诺基亚公司 | Method and apparatus of collecting data for agricultural analysis |
| RU2405295C1 (en) * | 2009-06-01 | 2010-12-10 | Государственное научное учреждение Армавирская опытная станция Государственного научного учреждения Всероссийского научно-исследовательского института масличных культур имени В.С. Пустовойта Российской академии сельскохозяйственных наук (ГНУ АОС ГНУ ВНИИМК Россельхозакадемии) | Method of winter rape cultivation |
| CN102110250A (en) * | 2009-12-29 | 2011-06-29 | 中国科学院合肥物质科学研究院 | Method for optimizing and determining disaster-reduction decision scheme |
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