CN102663240A - Analysis system and evaluation method for power telecommunication business risks - Google Patents
Analysis system and evaluation method for power telecommunication business risks Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses an analysis system and an evaluation method for power telecommunication business risks. The analysis system comprises a business impact analysis unit, a risk probability analysis unit and a communication risk evaluation unit. The business impact analysis unit is used for quantitatively assigning values for different types of power telecommunication network management businesses according to importance degrees and social impact effects of the businesses. The risk probability analysis unit is used for analyzing channel organization factor, route association factor, history data statistics factor and channel risk factor, and determining a probability value of each factor. The communication risk evaluation unit is connected with the business impact analysis unit and the risk probability analysis unit, and is used for obtaining a risk value of a power telecommunication business according to the quantitatively assigned value and the probability value. Various factors impacting the power telecommunication network communication business risks are comprehensively considered, so that the risk warning and evaluating index system of the power telecommunication network is more stable, more reliable, and applicable to making determination to achieve an effective warning result.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the power communication network technology, particularly relate to energy communication service venture analysis system and appraisal procedure.
Background technology
Power communication net loaded the relevant administration of power networks of a large amount of electrical production, control, marketing professional, it is the important component part of power information communication system.A large amount of administration of power networks service needed are transmitted through power telecom network; Comprising great deal of information such as remote data, relay protection signal, administration telephone signal, video TV teleconference signals; Electric system increases the dependence of power communication day by day, and the time of power telecom network, risk and fault also are on the rise to the influence of electric system, and the generation that improves the reliability of power telecom network and reduce its risk case can not only rely on design and the optimization of communication network design phase to network structure; And need be in the power telecom network operational process; Assess through effective reliability of electric force communication network and risk case, find that the unreliability problem, risk case and the potential risk that exist in the power telecom network threaten, improve accordingly and employ all means available through taking; Reinforcement is to the maintenance and inspection and the management of existing network; Reduce the risk of power telecom network, improve reliability, so that safer reliable service is provided for electric system.
Power telecom network service security reliable transmission is the embodiment directly perceived of power communication software safety and reliability.The risk assessment of power communication network service is the comparatively comprehensively assessment to communication network on the certain significance, not only relates to the reliability of power telecom network equipment, network topology, also relates to the factor of aspects such as technology, culture, environment.Qualitative index is mainly adopted in traditional power telecom network business risk analysis, is comprising many uncertainties, randomness and ambiguity factor in the evaluation process.Its assessment result also lags behind, and after accident takes place, the generation reason of this accident is spoken with confidence often again.
Summary of the invention
Based on this, being necessary provides a kind of energy communication service venture analysis system and appraisal procedure to the problems referred to above, can quickly and reliably carry out quantitative evaluation to the power telecom network risk, further power telecom network is carried out early warning timely and effectively.
A kind of energy communication service venture analysis system comprises:
The business impact analysis unit is used for the professional type of different administrations of power networks is carried out the quantification assignment of numerical value according to its professional significance level and to the influence of society effect;
The probabilistic analysis of risk unit is used for channel organization factor, route relation factor, historical data statistical considerations and passage risk factors are analyzed, and confirms the probable value of each factor;
With the communication risk assessment unit that said business impact analysis unit, said probabilistic analysis of risk unit link to each other respectively, be used for according to said quantification assignment and said probable value, obtain the professional value-at-risk of the communication system of power grids.
Correspondingly, a kind of energy communication service venture analysis appraisal procedure comprises:
To the professional type of different administrations of power networks, carry out the quantification assignment of numerical value according to its professional significance level and to the influence of society effect;
Channel organization factor, route relation factor, historical data statistical considerations and passage risk factors are analyzed, confirmed the probable value of each factor;
According to said quantification assignment and said probable value, obtain the professional value-at-risk of the communication system of power grids.
Embodiment of the present invention has following beneficial effect:
Above-mentioned energy communication service venture analysis system takes into full account the thought that reliability is the risk probability of happening; And with in the construction of risk consequence extent of injury introducing risk model; The risk model of considering is formed comprehensively; Having contained influences the professional key factor of administration of power networks, and it has complete, directly perceived, practical advantage.In addition; Energy communication service venture analysis appraisal procedure of the present invention has been carried out quantitative Analysis and statistical study to energy communication service risk assessment index; By expert assessment and evaluation and fault experience; Business risk is divided into two kinds of the risks of baseline risk and band problem, has further deepened science and rationality that the power telecom network business risk is analyzed.In sum, the present invention has taken all factors into consideration the multiple factor that influences the energy communication service venture analysis, makes that power telecom network Risk-warning evaluation index system has fast, reliable characteristics.Through risk assessment to the power communication network service; Can help power communication operation, maintenance and managerial personnel in time each professional global reliability and risk indicator to be analyzed; Find that each professional risk is prone to send out weak link; And then can supply decision-making to use, to reach effect to power telecom network early warning timely and effectively.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is the synoptic diagram of energy communication service venture analysis of the present invention system;
Fig. 2 is energy communication service venture analysis system implementation illustration intention of the present invention;
Fig. 3 is applied to the channel organization synoptic diagram of 500 KVs protection for the present invention.
Embodiment
For making the object of the invention, technical scheme and advantage clearer, will combine accompanying drawing that the present invention is done to describe in detail further below.
Fig. 1 is the synoptic diagram of energy communication service venture analysis of the present invention system, comprising:
The business impact analysis unit is used for the professional type of different administrations of power networks is carried out the quantification assignment of numerical value according to its professional significance level and to the influence of society effect;
The probabilistic analysis of risk unit is used for channel organization factor, route relation factor, historical data statistical considerations and passage risk factors are analyzed, and confirms the probable value of each factor;
With the communication risk assessment unit that said business impact analysis unit, said probabilistic analysis of risk unit link to each other respectively, be used for according to said quantification assignment and said probable value, obtain the professional value-at-risk of the communication system of power grids.
The overall model of energy communication service venture analysis of the present invention system is:
Value-at-risk=(numerical value of quantification) * (probable value) that the communication system of power grids is professional
Numerical value=(professional significance level score value) * (the social influence effect factor) that quantizes
Wherein, professional importance degree score value mainly is to describe the consequence order of severity that possibly cause after risk occurs, and main corresponding and different service are for the influence of electrical network in various degree.The social influence factor then is to have considered that risk results in greater loss after occurring under the situation such as period of the protection of electricity, and formulate influence factor.Professional significance level and social influence effect extensively receive expert, researcher's concern in existing qualitative analysis, still, different experts and scholars maybe be different to the score value assessment of same factor, even differ greatly.The present invention obtains a relatively reasonable quantification score value according to multidigit experts and scholars' analysis-by-synthesis, is used in reference to the work of wind-guiding danger early warning.After having confirmed each factor score value of system of the present invention, to the risk problem that occurs a score value reference table can be arranged later on, make the work of Risk-warning be deep into quantitative aspect from qualitative aspect.And improved efficient to venture analysis, avoided organizing the expert to sit on to some conventional risk problem.And the score value of these risk factors can also provide reference for the accuracy that further improves risk profile, for follow-up system upgrade facilitates.These can't be accomplished in existing qualitative analysis technology.
Wherein, in conjunction with expert assessment and evaluation and fault experience in the past, the risk that administration of power networks is professional is divided into two kinds of the risks of baseline risk and band problem.Baseline risk is mainly used in the professional daily risk assessment of power telecom network, instructs day-to-day operation to safeguard and planning construction.The risk of band problem then more considered extreme weather factor, maintenance period on the basis of baseline risk, protect the venture influence factor that electricity period etc., particular time produced, and is mainly used in the risk assessment of particular time.
Professional baseline risk probability of happening value is calculated by following formula:
The probable value of baseline risk=(channel organization factor) * (route relevancy factor) * (historical data statistical factor) * (passage risk factors);
Problem-targeted risk probability value=(channel organization factor) * (route relevancy factor) * (historical data statistical factor) * (passage risk factors) * (weather effect factor) * (overhaul management factor) * (repair time factor) * (site operation factor) * (control measure factor).
The present invention takes into full account the thought that reliability is the risk probability of happening, and the risk consequence extent of injury is incorporated in the risk model of quantification, and the risk factors of consideration are comprehensive, have timely, directly perceived, practical advantage.The method that the present invention has also carried out quantitative Analysis and analysis to energy communication service risk assessment index is divided into two kinds of the risks of baseline risk and band problem with business risk, has further deepened science and rationality that the power telecom network business risk is analyzed.
Fig. 2 is energy communication service venture analysis system implementation illustration intention of the present invention.Compared to Figure 1,
Fig. 2 is the synoptic diagram of the specific embodiment of the invention.
As shown in Figure 2, said business impact analysis unit specifically comprises:
Operational authority reevaluating unit is used for quantizing according to the subregion of power business, and weight assignment is carried out in classification to different business;
The social benefit assessment unit is used for according to society the demand status of power supply being formulated several preset periods, and to carrying out weight assignment said several periods;
With the consequence predicting unit that said operational authority reevaluating unit, said social benefit assessment unit link to each other respectively, be used for the weight assignment of different business classification and the weight assignment in each period are multiplied each other, obtain the consequence value of service impact.
At first, the quantization scheme of operational authority reevaluating is the business risk key factor, can quantize according to the subregion of power business, adopts expert's scoring that different business is classified and carries out weight assignment.Preferably, can be as shown in the table:
Professional importance degree score value table
The subregion of power business is divided in has clear and definite definition and differentiation in the administration of power networks: electric power safety district I has mainly been contained all and has been related to the business of electric power control; Place of safety II relates to the relevant monitoring traffic of electrical production, but does not relate to control; Electrical management and sales service have then been contained in III district and IV district.Wherein set score value is and combines power grid risk assessment level and multidigit expert scoring, obtains through computing again.Preferably; Can assess the assignment that certain risk factors quantizes by ten experts; Is 1 to 10 according to the risk assessment criterion to the assignment scope of these risk factors, last, with the average of this ten experts' the point value of evaluation amplitude as the professional importance degree of these risk factors.
Secondly, the quantization scheme of social benefit assessment is divided into general period, particular time, secondary urgent period, urgent period of one-level and superfine urgent period period with power demands, for formulating different weighted values different periods.Preferably, as shown in the table:
Social influence factor quantization table
Factor value in the social influence factor quantization table has here followed the factor value in the power grid risk assessment guide rule, the different electricity degree that period, each business risk impacted electrical network integral body of protecting of emphasis reflection.In like manner; Preferably, the assignment assessment that can be quantized certain risk factors by ten experts is 1 to 2 according to the risk assessment criterion to the assignment scope of these risk factors; At last, with the average of this ten experts' point value of evaluation amplitude as the professional importance degree of these risk factors.
As shown in Figure 2, said probabilistic analysis of risk unit comprises:
The first factor acquiring unit is used for adopting single channel or binary channels according to passage, and passage belongs to cold standby or heat is equipped with, and the similarities and differences of medium, confirms the Risk rated ratio of channel organization in each;
The second factor acquiring unit is used for the active and standby same cable with route of quantitative evaluation, same pipeline, with the risk that the shaft tower phenomenon is brought, and obtains the calculated value of route relation factor;
The 3rd factor acquiring unit is used for the frequency that breaks down in historical statistics according to business, obtains the calculated value of statistical considerations;
The 4th factor acquiring unit is used for the correlativity of each passage and its device node, circuit risk, management degree is quantized, and obtains the assessed value of passage risk factors.
Wherein, adopt single channel or binary channels according to passage, passage belongs to cold standby or heat is equipped with, and the similarities and differences of medium, confirms that the quantization scheme of the Risk rated ratio of channel organization in each is following:
Channel organization factor quantization scheme
Wherein, single channel representes that this business only adopts a passage to carry, and for example only adopts the point-to-point direct-connected or multistage network structure realization of optical fiber, and this moment is bigger to the risk of service bearer; The cold standby binary channels representes that the same professional cold standby two passes that adopts carries, but uses same media, for example adopts optical fiber or same power line carrier or the microwave line of adopting to realize equally; Cold standby binary channels different medium representes that the cold standby binary channels is not only arranged, and has also adopted different media; Hot Spare can onlinely be switched with the different service channels that are of cold standby, thereby has reduced the risk that service disconnection causes in the reversed process.Preferably, the historical data that can break down according to certain channel organization factor in the past quantizes assignment to its score value, and is last, with the quantized value of a historical statistics value as this channel organization factor.
When passage adopted single channel, its risk was 2 to the maximum.It is big slightly that the binary channels value-at-risk of cold standby is equipped with twin-channel risk than heat; The risk that two channel media are identical is a bit larger tham the binary channels of different medium.
Secondly, the risk of the professional active and standby same cable of the main quantitative evaluation of route relevancy factor, same pipeline, " the injuring all " of bringing with phenomenons such as shaft towers with route.For same cable, same pipeline in the route relevancy factor of a certain business and professional double route or the primary channel, weigh with the ratio of shaft tower etc.
Preferably, concrete computing formula is:
If the complete same route of two passages, then the route relevancy factor is 2 to the maximum; If independent fully in two passages, then route relevancy factor minimum is 1.For single pass business, its route relevancy factor gets maximum 2.
In addition, according to the frequency that business breaks down in historical statistics, when obtaining the calculated value of statistical considerations, when fault never took place this type of business, then the historical data statistical factor is 1.In addition, adopt following formula to calculate:
At last, the passage risk factors is relevant with the risk of professional each passage.Device node in the risk factors of each passage and this passage, circuit risk, management of water equality are closely related.In a specific embodiment, said the 4th factor acquiring unit comprises:
The unprotect assessment unit is used to quantize the risk factors of each passage under the unshielded condition of network;
The device hardware assessment unit is used to quantize the risk factors of the device fails of each passage;
The circuit assessment unit is used to quantize the risk factors that interruption takes place the circuit relevant with passage;
The compatibility assessment unit, unusual risk factors take place in the degree of compatibility that is used to quantize new used equipment;
Management degree assessment unit is used to quantize the risk factors of the loss that error brought on the behavior adjustment management;
The passage Risk Calculation unit that links to each other respectively with said unprotect assessment unit, said device hardware assessment unit, said circuit assessment unit, said compatibility assessment unit, said management degree assessment unit; Be used for obtaining the assessed value of risk factors according to formula; Concrete formula comprises
The risk factors of each passage=(unprotect factor) * (equipment risk factors) * (circuit risk factors) * (compatible complexity) * (management shortcoming factor);
The first, the network protection configuration of network unprotect factor mainly contains following several kinds of modes:
(1) unprotect does not have and recovers;
(2) disposed self-healed protection function or disposed restore funcitons.
The network that has disposed self-healed protection and recovery has better robustness than the network of unprotect and recovery.
Network robustness mainly adopts the network of professional process to possess the ratio of self-healed protection or restore funcitons in the business risk assessment, promptly
What need supplementary notes is, suitable equally for its unshielded factor of data network.
The second, the equipment risk factors is the tolerance to the baseline risk probable value of approach node device, and preferably, its computing formula is following:
Because the probable value of node device baseline risk is 100 to the maximum, so equipment risk factors maximal value is 2.
The 3rd, the circuit risk factors is the tolerance to the baseline risk probable value of approach circuit, and preferably, its computing formula is following:
Because the baseline risk maximal value by way of circuit is 100, so circuit risk factors maximal value is 2.
The 4th, compatible complexity is mainly passed through the risk that multistage network two aspects are brought by devices from different manufacturers light mouth is interconnected and professional.It is as shown in the table that compatible complexity quantizes scheme:
Compatible complexity quantification value table
The light mouth interconnected communication of different manufacturers can increase the risk of bearer service; Simultaneously; When a business has occurred passing through the situation of different looped networks; Can cause same business through different passage and equipment; Also can increase the risk of corresponding service, for example when a dispatching services simultaneously during the looped network through two different districts and cities, will than only in these districts and cities looped network loaded service have a big risk.The concrete factor that influences is set with reference to power communication traffic department score value that the identification situation of various situation and expert are given a mark.
The 5th, management shortcoming factor.The assessment Business Information completeness of putting on record: comprise professional time slot, integrated circuit board, through information such as network elements.The risk score value of management shortcoming factor is as shown in the table:
| Business Information is put on record in time | The escape truck poor availability | Business datum does not have backup | |
| Score value | 2 | 2 | 2 |
The Business Information data such as the professional equipment that relates to of expression, passage, competent authorities, standby redundancy of putting on record just can be made a call to 1 when all possessing, all the other situation are taken the circumstances into consideration increase, when all lacking, make a call to 2; According to the rules, should build each professional escape truck, as not have escape truck, then risk factors is 2, makes a call to 1 when having escape truck; When business datum has backup, make a call to 2, make a call to 1 when not backing up.
In sum, passage risk factors span in the ordinary course of things, service channel adopts binary channels more, and the risk level of each passage is different, the risk level of master channel is superior to the risk level of alternate channel under the general condition.Although but the risk level of alternate channel is higher than master channel, has disposed its overall risk level of twin-channel business and slightly reduced.Based on this principle, set up computing formula with lower channel overall risk factor:
When n=2, according to above calculating, the span that draws the passage risk factors is [0.5,16].
When considering the risk assessment of particular time; Need to adopt the venture analysis of band problem; It has more considered extreme weather factor, maintenance period on the basis of baseline risk, protect the venture influence factor that electricity period etc., particular time produced, and the setting and the power grid risk assessment level of concrete score value are consistent.As shown in the table respectively:
Weather effect factor table
Overhaul management factor table
| Type | Scheduled overhaul | Unplanned maintenance | Accident maintenance |
| Score value | 1 | 1.5 | 2 |
Scheduled overhaul is that the power communication maintainer overhauls according to the monthly of appointment or annual overhaul plan according to flow process, because various piece cooperates better in such cases, therefore basically business risk is not caused too much influence, influences factor and is made as 1; When the power communication maintainer needs temporarily not according to turnaround plan certain equipment or circuit to be overhauled, may relevant business be affected greatly, therefore influencing factor is decided to be 1.5; When accident occurring and overhaul, possibly related service is affected greatly, therefore overhauling factor is 2.
Communication repair time factor table
| Repair time | T≤8h | 8h＜T≤24h | 1 day～3 days | More than 3 days |
| Score value | 0.3～0.5 | 0.5～1.0 | 1.0～1.5 | 1.5～3.0 |
The score value of communication repair time factor mainly reflects the influence of different repair times to related service.Very short in 8 hours the time when the repair time, think less to the related service influence, the factor of setting is set relatively low; When the repair time is longer, grow with time, factor also increases gradually.
Site operation factor table
| Type | Site operation is to the influence of operational outfit |
| Score value | 1～2 |
Site operation comprises whether communication site or communication facilities have other site operation operations, if any operation, then can the risk of operational outfit be impacted.
At last, the control measure factor is meant through provisional configuration circuit or emergency circuit etc. and reduces the service disconnection risk, but do not eliminate the control measure of communication failure, and its value is by expert's marking, 0＜span≤1.Control measure bigger this factor value of effect perfect more, that lower the generation of service disconnection risk is more little.
What needs remarked additionally is that the quantification score value of above-mentioned each risk factors passes through the multidigit expert and combines the statistical considerations of historical failure to draw, and venture analysis and early warning work are had guiding significance.These are quantized score values be applied to power communication venture analysis of the present invention system, the completion risk model, for fast, in time handling risk problem, the work efficiency that improves risk management department has vital role.And for work in the future, for example system upgrade is introduced more risk factors and is quantized score value etc., has with reference to the property effect.In sum; The present invention makes the professional venture analysis of administration of power networks be deep into the quantitative analysis on the statistical significance from the qualitative analysis on the principle; From the analysis of discrete risk factors expand to comprehensively, the risk Factor Analysis of system, from analytically being raised to fast of the expert discussion that lags behind, directiveness analysis timely.
Fig. 3 is applied to the channel organization synoptic diagram of 500 KVs protection for the present invention.Below in conjunction with Fig. 3, the energy communication service venture analysis appraisal procedure that this patent proposes is further specified through an example.
Correspondingly, a kind of energy communication service venture analysis appraisal procedure comprises:
According to different business types, analyze its professional significance level and to the influence of society effect, and said significance level and said impact effect are carried out the quantification of numerical value;
Probable value from channel organization factor, route relation factor, historical data statistical considerations and each factor of passage risk Factor Analysis;
According to the numerical value and the said probable value of said quantification, obtain the professional value-at-risk of the communication system of power grids.
In the middle of an embodiment, energy communication service venture analysis appraisal procedure of the present invention specifically comprises:
According to different business types, analyze its professional significance level and to the influence of society effect, quantize according to the subregion of power business, weight assignment is carried out in classification to different business;
According to society the demand status of power supply is formulated several preset periods, and to carrying out weight assignment said several periods;
The weight assignment of different business classification and the weight assignment in each period are multiplied each other, obtain the consequence value of service impact;
Adopt single channel or binary channels according to passage, passage belongs to cold standby or heat is equipped with, and the similarities and differences of medium, confirms the Risk rated ratio of channel organization in each;
The active and standby same cable of quantitative evaluation, same pipeline with route, with the risk that the shaft tower phenomenon is brought, obtain the calculated value of route relation factor;
According to the frequency that business breaks down, obtain the calculated value of statistical considerations in historical statistics;
Correlativity to each passage and its device node, circuit risk, management degree quantizes, and obtains the assessed value of passage risk factors;
According to the numerical value and the said probable value of said quantification, obtain the professional value-at-risk of the communication system of power grids.
Wherein, the correlativity of each passage and its device node, circuit risk, management degree is quantized, obtains the step of the assessed value of passage risk factors, comprising:
Quantize the risk factors of each passage under unshielded condition; Quantize the risk factors of the device fails of each passage; Quantize the risk factors that interruption takes place the circuit relevant with passage; Unusual risk factors take place in the degree of compatibility that quantizes new used equipment; Quantize the risk factors of the loss that error brought on the behavior adjustment management;
Obtain the assessed value of risk factors according to formula, concrete formula comprises,
The risk factors of each passage=(unprotect factor) * (equipment risk factors) * (circuit risk factors) * (compatible complexity) * (management shortcoming factor);
Further, when considering the risk assessment of particular time, need to adopt the venture analysis of band problem, it has more considered extreme weather factor, maintenance period on the basis of baseline risk, protect the venture influence factor that electricity period etc., particular time produced.Step from the probable value of channel organization factor, route relation factor, historical data statistical considerations and each factor of passage risk Factor Analysis also comprises:
Weather effect factor, overhaul management factor, repair time factor, site operation factor and control measure factor to preset period are analyzed, assessment risk factors value.
As shown in Figure 3, suppose that a 500kV route protection is professional, binary channels is through communicating with lower network: passage A converges to backbone layer through LAN; Channel B is through the direct-connected mode of special optic fibre.
Business self importance degree is: 10;
Social influence factor: 1;
Then energy communication service consequence value is 10.
Protection is professional adopts the binary channels warm standby mode, and all is the optical fiber communication mode, so the channel organization factor is 1.2;
Be same route (length is 0.5km) between circuit M end and the website 1, other part of path is independent route; Two passage total lengths are 1.8km, and then the route relevancy factor is 1.56.
The historical data statistical factor is 1;
In the passage A risk factors:
Because the protection passage does not adopt the protection Restoration Mechanism, so circuit unprotect factor is 2;
The average risk value of equipment and circuit is respectively 1.1 and 1.2 under the normal condition;
Suppose that professional same producer equipment passes through different level networks, then the interface compatibility complexity is 1.2.
Suppose that management is complete, then managing complete factor is 1;
Then the risk factors of passage A is: 2 * 1.1 * 1.2 * 1.2 * 1=3.168.
In the channel B risk factors:
Circuit unprotect factor is 2;
The average risk value of equipment and circuit is respectively 1.1 and 1.2 under the normal condition;
The interface compatibility complexity is 1;
Suppose that management is complete, then managing complete factor is 1;
Then the risk factors of passage A is: 2 * 1.1 * 1.2 * 1 * 1=2.64.
Then twin-channel risk factors of passage A and channel B composition is:
Risk probability value that then should business is 1.2 * 1.56 * 1 * 1.44=2.69568.
So the professional generally baseline risk value in period of this protection is 26.9568.Be in below the early warning threshold value, need do not carry out early warning, but can reduce business risk through improving the passage relevancy factor.The present invention has considered the multiple factor that influences the energy communication service venture analysis; And provided the method for it being carried out risk assessment; Especially the situation to double route in the power communication network service has provided rational methods of risk assessment; Be more suitable for the characteristics of power telecom network self, so this analytical approach makes power telecom network Risk-warning evaluation index system have stable, reliable characteristics.
The above embodiment has only expressed several kinds of embodiments of the present invention, and it describes comparatively concrete and detailed, but can not therefore be interpreted as the restriction to claim of the present invention.Should be pointed out that for the person of ordinary skill of the art under the prerequisite that does not break away from the present invention's design, can also make some distortion and improvement, these all belong to protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, the protection domain of patent of the present invention should be as the criterion with accompanying claims.
Claims (10)
1. an energy communication service venture analysis system is characterized in that, comprising:
The business impact analysis unit is used for the professional type of different administrations of power networks is carried out the quantification assignment of numerical value according to its professional significance level and to the influence of society effect;
The probabilistic analysis of risk unit is used for channel organization factor, route relation factor, historical data statistical considerations and passage risk factors are analyzed, and confirms the probable value of each factor;
With the communication risk assessment unit that said business impact analysis unit, said probabilistic analysis of risk unit link to each other respectively, be used for according to said quantification assignment and said probable value, obtain the professional value-at-risk of the communication system of power grids.
2. energy communication service venture analysis according to claim 1 system is characterized in that said business impact analysis unit specifically comprises:
Operational authority reevaluating unit is used for quantizing according to the professional subregion of said administration of power networks, and weight assignment is carried out in classification to different business;
The social benefit assessment unit is used for according to society the demand status of power supply being formulated several preset periods, and to carrying out weight assignment said several periods;
With the consequence predicting unit that said operational authority reevaluating unit, said social benefit assessment unit link to each other respectively, be used for the weight assignment of different business classification and the weight assignment in each period are multiplied each other, obtain the consequence value of service impact.
3. energy communication service venture analysis according to claim 1 and 2 system is characterized in that said probabilistic analysis of risk unit comprises:
The first factor acquiring unit is used for adopting single channel or binary channels according to passage, and passage belongs to cold standby or heat is equipped with, and the similarities and differences of medium, confirms the Risk rated ratio of channel organization in each;
The second factor acquiring unit is used for the active and standby same cable with route of quantitative evaluation, same pipeline, with the risk that the shaft tower phenomenon is brought, and obtains the calculated value of route relation factor;
The 3rd factor acquiring unit is used for the frequency that breaks down in historical statistics according to business, obtains the calculated value of statistical considerations;
The 4th factor acquiring unit is used for different channel modes and its device node, the circuit risk that adopts fiber direct connection and backbone network and Access Network cascade, the correlativity of managing degree are quantized, and obtains the assessed value of passage risk factors.
4. energy communication service venture analysis according to claim 3 system is characterized in that said the 4th factor acquiring unit comprises:
The unprotect assessment unit is used to quantize the risk factors of each passage under the unshielded condition of network;
The device hardware assessment unit is used to quantize the risk factors of the device fails of each passage;
The circuit assessment unit is used to quantize the risk factors that interruption takes place the circuit relevant with passage;
The compatibility assessment unit, unusual risk factors take place in the degree of compatibility that is used to quantize new used equipment;
Management degree assessment unit is used to quantize the risk factors of the loss that error brought on the behavior adjustment management;
The passage Risk Calculation unit that links to each other respectively with said unprotect assessment unit, said device hardware assessment unit, said circuit assessment unit, said compatibility assessment unit, said management degree assessment unit; Be used for obtaining the assessed value of risk factors according to formula; Concrete formula comprises
The risk factors of each passage=(unprotect factor) * (equipment risk factors) * (circuit risk factors) * (compatible complexity) * (management shortcoming factor);
5. according to each described energy communication service venture analysis system of claim 1 to 4, it is characterized in that said probabilistic analysis of risk unit also comprises:
The specific factor assessment unit is used for analyzing to weather effect factor, overhaul management factor, repair time factor, site operation factor and the control measure factor in preset period, assessment risk factors value.
6. an energy communication service venture analysis appraisal procedure is characterized in that, comprising:
To the professional type of different administrations of power networks, carry out the quantification assignment of numerical value according to its professional significance level and to the influence of society effect;
Channel organization factor, route relation factor, historical data statistical considerations and passage risk factors are analyzed, confirmed the probable value of each factor;
According to said quantification assignment and said probable value, obtain the professional value-at-risk of the communication system of power grids.
7. energy communication service venture analysis appraisal procedure according to claim 6 is characterized in that, the step to said significance level and said impact effect carry out the quantification of numerical value specifically comprises:
The subregion professional according to said administration of power networks quantizes, and weight assignment is carried out in classification to different business;
According to society the demand status of power supply is formulated several preset periods, and to carrying out weight assignment said several periods;
The weight assignment of different business classification and the weight assignment in each period are multiplied each other, obtain the consequence value of service impact.
8. according to claim 6 or 7 described energy communication service venture analysis appraisal procedures, it is characterized in that the step from the probable value of channel organization factor, route relation factor, historical data statistical considerations and each factor of passage risk Factor Analysis comprises:
Adopt single channel or binary channels according to passage, passage belongs to cold standby or heat is equipped with, and the similarities and differences of medium, confirms the Risk rated ratio of channel organization in each;
The active and standby same cable of quantitative evaluation, same pipeline with route, with the risk that the shaft tower phenomenon is brought, obtain the calculated value of route relation factor;
According to the frequency that business breaks down, obtain the calculated value of statistical considerations in historical statistics;
Different channel modes and its device node, the circuit risk that adopts fiber direct connection and backbone network and Access Network cascade, the correlativity of managing degree are quantized, obtain the assessed value of passage risk factors.
9. energy communication service venture analysis appraisal procedure according to claim 8 is characterized in that, the correlativity of each passage and its device node, circuit risk, management degree is quantized, and obtains the step of the assessed value of passage risk factors, comprising:
Quantize the risk factors of each passage under unshielded condition; Quantize the risk factors of the device fails of each passage; Quantize the risk factors that interruption takes place the circuit relevant with passage; Unusual risk factors take place in the degree of compatibility that quantizes new used equipment; Quantize the risk factors of the loss that error brought on the behavior adjustment management;
Obtain the assessed value of risk factors according to formula, concrete formula comprises,
The risk factors of each passage=(unprotect factor) * (equipment risk factors) * (circuit risk factors) * (compatible complexity) * (management shortcoming factor);
10. according to each described energy communication service venture analysis appraisal procedure of claim 6 to 9; It is characterized in that; Step from the probable value of channel organization factor, route relation factor, historical data statistical considerations and each factor of passage risk Factor Analysis also comprises:
Weather effect factor, overhaul management factor, repair time factor, site operation factor and control measure factor to preset period are analyzed, assessment risk factors value.
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