CN102621413A - Filed maintenance strategy optimizing determination method for converter transformer - Google Patents
Filed maintenance strategy optimizing determination method for converter transformer Download PDFInfo
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- CN102621413A CN102621413A CN2012100661787A CN201210066178A CN102621413A CN 102621413 A CN102621413 A CN 102621413A CN 2012100661787 A CN2012100661787 A CN 2012100661787A CN 201210066178 A CN201210066178 A CN 201210066178A CN 102621413 A CN102621413 A CN 102621413A
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Abstract
The invention relates to a field maintenance strategy optimizing determination method converter transformer. The method comprises the following steps of: obtaining preventive test data of a converter transformer; and carrying out optimizing determination of a field maintenance strategy for the converter transformer, wherein the optimizing determination of field maintenance strategy for the converter transformer comprises the following steps of: determining the expected cost of a converter transformer maintenance scheme at time t, determining the expected risk cost of the converter transformer at time t, determining a predicted value f (X, t) of characteristic quantity at time t, calculating the probability P (Y, t) of various converter transformer fault types at time t according to f (X, t), determining expected fault type risk cost R(t) at time t, and determining a converter transformer maintenance strategy with high economical efficiency. The method provided by the invention can determine a maintenance strategy with the optimal economical efficiency according to converter transformer maintenance cost and fault types; and the determination method provided by the invention is applied to the determination of the maintenance strategy with the optimal economical efficiency for the converter transformer, reduces the total overhaul and maintenance cost of the converter transformer, and prolongs the use period of the converter transformer and has good social and economic benefits.
Description
Technical field
Patent of the present invention relates to the change of current and cashes a service technique field, and particularly a kind of change of current is cashed a maintenance policy optimization and confirmed method.
Background technology
Along with the rapid development of Chinese society's economy and the continuous progress of science and technology, entire society is increasing to the demand of electric energy, so scale of power constantly enlarges.Yet China energy distributes and there is serious asymmetric problem in economic development; The east and the southern economically developed energy are few; Therefore western energy abundance but economy is more backward effectively is transported to east and south with the western energy, helps the sustainable development of national economy.The high-voltage direct-current technology of transmission of electricity is with the obvious advantage in remote high capacity is carried because of it, and the ultra extra-high voltage DC transmission system of existing many friendships puts into operation in the big ground of China.
It is a topmost power equipment in the high-voltage direct-current technology of transmission of electricity that the change of current becomes.Its running status is seriously determining the stable operation of high voltage direct current transmission system.But there is fault that the change of current becomes in domestic many DC power transmission lines and needs maintenance in various degree.For example the natural bridge current conversion station #408316 change of current becomes the burnt and carbonization of discovery winding top layer insulating paper between the 44th～No. 45 stay of several the 4th cakes on the winding bottom; The serious phenomenon of burning had appearred in two two pairs of pads about the Guangzhou current conversion station #408327 change of current became net side winding; The upper end weld insulating paper that the Guangzhou current conversion station #408329 change of current becomes post II netting twine circle has burnt vestige.Therefore in time carry out the fault change of current and cash a service technique, ensure the effective supply that electric power is carried, socio-economic development is had significant meaning.
A technology of carrying out a change of current realization maintenance at present has Siemens Company and domestic manufacturer.The service technique of Siemens Company is that the welding manner when original solid conductor is connected changes intensive welding into; But intensive weld can form a relatively large copper metallic object; It is in and can induces eddy current in the brow leakage field and form new heat generating spot, therefore can form new incipient fault point.The service technique of domestic manufacturer is net lateral coil integral replacing and two brand-new coils of coiling again, adopt single wire gauge coiling and weld one to one at weld, but this method is because the influence of brow leakage field makes its eddy current loss increase.Siemens Company and domestic manufacturer all do not have under the situation of systematic analysis change of current accident barrier type, to carry out the economic analysis that a service technique is cashed in the change of current simultaneously.Thereby select the economic optimum scheme to carry out the on-the-spot change of current and cash a maintenance.
The change of current at present becomes overhauls the mode of overhauling after strategy employing prophylactic repair and the fault, so there is the maintenance deficiency in this working method or keeps in repair excessive problem.Along with the development of DC transmission engineering, these traditional maintenance modes can not satisfy the demand of actual production.Change of current change maintenance strategy need take all factors into consideration the maintenance cost and system failure rate is confirmed best maintenance scheme; And correspondingly adopt rational maintenance mode; Its purpose reduces equipment testing and maintenance total expenses exactly, and prolongs the equipment life cycle, guarantees the reliability of equipment operation.Therefore the present invention is directed to the ruuning situation and the cost of overhaul that the change of current becomes, propose the change of current and become the maintenance strategy.
Summary of the invention
In view of there is the maintenance deficiency in present maintenance strategy or keeps in repair excessive problem.The present invention adopts the mode of taking all factors into consideration maintenance cost and change of current change failure rate to confirm best maintenance strategy, and combines rational maintenance mode, has reduced equipment testing and maintenance total expenses, has prolonged the equipment life cycle.Both guaranteed that the change of current became reliability of operation, and grasped the ruuning situation of change of current change again and reduced the change of current change cost of overhaul.Cash the field for the safe and stable operation of ultra extra-high voltage direct-current transmission engineering and the change of current technical support is provided.
Through obtaining the preventive trial data that the change of current becomes, carry out really quantitative analysis of fault in conjunction with the preventive trial data, a change of current realization maintenance strategy is confirmed in the expense expectation of the currency loss of contrast fault overall risk and each maintenance program.
The said change of current become comprise ± supply with AC power or accept AC power to converter valve in 500kV and the ± 800kV DC transmission system from converter valve, and will net top-cross and flow voltage transformation and become the needed voltage of valve side.
Said converter valve comprises ± successively three-phase alternating voltage is connected to dc terminal DC voltage that obtains expecting and the control that realizes power in 500kV and the ± 800kV DC transmission system.
For realizing that the technical scheme that above-mentioned purpose adopts is such, promptly a kind of change of current is cashed a maintenance policy optimization and is confirmed method, and method comprises following steps:
The preventive trial Data Acquisition that S1, the change of current become
1) adopting Jie with serial communication function to decrease tester obtains change of current change net side sleeve pipe, valve side sleeve pipe, nets the side sleeve pipe decreases angle of loss together with Jie of winding together with winding and valve side sleeve pipe tangent value; The DCR of Transformer tester that employing has the serial communication function obtains change of current change net side winding D.C. resistance and valve side winding D.C. resistance; Adopt the transformer oil chromatographic analyser to obtain the change of current and become oil dissolved gas content; Adopt insulation resistance meter to obtain the change of current and become iron core and folder insulation resistance:
The said change of current becomes net side sleeve pipe and comprises ± be used to be connected the change of current change sleeve pipe of AC system in 500kV and the ± 800kV DC transmission system;
The said change of current becomes valve side sleeve pipe and comprises ± and the change of current that is used for said converter valve in 500kV and the ± 800kV DC transmission system becomes sleeve pipe;
Said net side sleeve pipe comprises that together with winding the said change of current becomes net side sleeve pipe and adds the winding that is connected with this sleeve pipe;
Said valve side sleeve pipe comprises that together with winding the said change of current becomes valve side sleeve pipe and adds the winding that is connected with this sleeve pipe;
The tangent value that decreases angle of loss of giving an account of comprises the active loss of dielectric under alternating voltage and the ratio of reactive loss, has reflected the drain performance of dielectric under alternating voltage;
Said net side winding comprises ± be connected the winding of AC system in 500kV and the ± 800kV DC transmission system;
Said valve side winding comprises ± be connected the winding of converter valve in 500kV and the ± 800kV DC transmission system;
Said direct current resistance comprises the ratio of DC voltage and DC current;
The said change of current becomes oil dissolved gas content and comprises ± 500kV become with ± 800kV DC transmission system the change of current in hydrogen content, carbon monoxide content, carbon dioxide content, methane content, acetylene content, ethylene contents and ethane content;
The said change of current becomes iron core and the folder insulation comprises ± 500kV become with ± 800kV DC transmission system the change of current in iron core to the insulation resistance on folder and ground, folder insulation resistance to iron core and ground;
S2, the change of current are cashed an optimization of maintenance strategy and are confirmed
1) it is definite that the change of current becomes maintenance program t expense expectation constantly
Become the maintenance scheme according to the domestic and international change of current, can be divided into the maintenance program that has a power failure immediately, the maintenance program of giving priority in arranging for, keep watch on operating scheme, periodic maintenance scheme and deferred maintenance scheme.Therefore the maintenance cost expectation of these maintenance strategies is:
E
i(t)＝schemeCost(i)+dayCost
i(t) (1)
Wherein: E
i(t) be the maintenance cost expectation of t i kind maintenance constantly strategy.SchemeCost (i) is the fixed expense of i kind maintenance strategy, dayCost
i(t) be the extra cost of t i kind maintenance constantly strategy.Become the maintenance experience according to the on-the-spot change of current, concrete calculating comprises:
The maintenance strategy is an interruption maintenance strategy immediately when i=1; Coding is S
1, the value of schemeCost (1) is 100, dayCost
1(t) value is 0.08* (t-t
0), t
0It is the starting point that to carry out the maintenance strategy after change of current change puts into operation.
The maintenance strategy is the maintenance strategy of giving priority in arranging for when i=2; Coding is S
2, the value of schemeCost (2) is 50, dayCost
2(t) value is 0.12* (t-t
0), t
0It is the starting point that to carry out the maintenance strategy after change of current change puts into operation.
The maintenance strategy is to keep watch on the operating maintenance strategy when i=3; Coding is S
3, the value of schemeCost (3) is 10, dayCost
3(t) value is 0.4* (t-t
0), t
0It is the starting point that to carry out the maintenance strategy after change of current change puts into operation.
The maintenance strategy is the prophylactic repair strategy when i=4; Coding is S
4, the value of schemeCost (4) is 40, dayCost
4(t) value is 0.4* (t-t
0), t
0It is the starting point that to carry out the maintenance strategy after change of current change puts into operation.
The maintenance strategy is an extension interruption maintenance strategy when i=5; Coding is S
5, the value of schemeCost (5) is 0, dayCost
5(t) value is 0.5* (t-t
0), t
0It is the starting point that to carry out the maintenance strategy after change of current change puts into operation.
2) change of current becomes certain confirming of t risk expense expectation constantly
The change of current that collects is become net side sleeve pipe, valve side sleeve pipe, nets the side sleeve pipe decreases angle of loss together with Jie of winding together with winding and valve side sleeve pipe tangent value; The change of current becomes net side winding D.C. resistance and valve side winding D.C. resistance; The change of current becomes oil dissolved gas content; And the change of current becomes iron core and the folder insulation resistance carries out change of current accident barrier classification of type, and said fault type classification comprises:
It is poor not greater than 5% o'clock with last secondary data respectively that Jie that the change of current becomes net side sleeve pipe and valve side sleeve pipe decreases the tangent value of angle of loss, confirms that fault type comprises sleeve pipe fault, insulating medium fault;
Net side sleeve pipe decreases angle of loss together with Jie of winding together with winding and valve side sleeve pipe tangent value in the time of 20 ℃ greater than 0.6%, or respectively with last secondary data comparison greater than 30%, confirm that fault type comprises sleeve pipe fault, winding failure, insulating medium fault;
Change of current change net side winding D.C. resistance and valve side winding D.C. resistance are poor not greater than 2% o'clock with last secondary data respectively, confirm that fault type comprises winding failure, shunting switch fault;
When the change of current becomes oil dissolved gas content hydrogen content greater than 150 μ L/L; When perhaps methane content, acetylene content, ethylene contents and ethane content summation are greater than 150 μ L/L; Perhaps carbon monoxide content and carbon dioxide content total amount confirm that greater than 0 o'clock failed-type comprises winding failure, shunting switch fault, insulating medium fault, lead wire fault;
Iron core and folder insulation resistance are poor when not big with last secondary data respectively, confirm that fault type comprises the iron core fault;
The otherness of the consequence of bringing according to the different faults type is further segmented change of current accident barrier type, and given recondition expense, comprising:
Winding failure (coding: y
10) comprise and insulate degradation (coding: y
10,1) cause consequence to be stopped transport and ten thousand yuan of recondition expense W1; (coding: y such as overload
10,2) cause the consequence efficiency to reduce and recondition expense WT1 ten thousand/sky;
Sleeve pipe fault (coding: y
11) comprise the seepage wet goods (coding: y
11,1) cause consequence to be stopped transport and ten thousand yuan of recondition expense W2; (coding: y such as leakage field
11,2) cause the consequence efficiency to reduce and recondition expense WT2/ days;
Insulating medium fault (coding: y
12) comprise (coding: y such as insulation breakdown
12,1) cause consequence to be stopped transport and ten thousand yuan of recondition expense W3; Insulation is degradation (coding: y down
12,2) cause the consequence efficiency to reduce and recondition expense WT3 ten thousand/sky;
Exhausted iron core fault (coding: y
13) comprise (coding: y such as multipoint earthing
13,1) cause consequence to be stopped transport and ten thousand yuan of recondition expense W4; (coding: y such as leakage field heating
13,2) cause the consequence efficiency to reduce and recondition expense WT4 ten thousand/sky;
Shunting switch fault (coding: y
14) comprise (coding: y such as mechanical fault
14,1) cause consequence to be stopped transport and ten thousand yuan of recondition expense W5; (coding: y such as loose contact
14,2) cause the consequence efficiency to reduce and recondition expense WT5 ten thousand/sky;
Lead wire fault (coding: y
15) comprise (coding: y such as short circuit
15,1) cause consequence to be stopped transport and ten thousand yuan of recondition expense W6; (coding: y such as loose contact
15,2) cause the consequence efficiency to reduce and recondition expense WT6 ten thousand/sky;
Oil leakage fault (coding: y
16) comprise (coding: y such as device body leakage of oil
16,1) cause consequence to be stopped transport and ten thousand yuan of recondition expense W7; (coding: y such as Buchholz relay
16,2) cause the consequence efficiency to reduce and recondition expense WT7 ten thousand/sky;
Become at 21 time point (t according to a large amount of changes of current change historical datas and the change of current
0Increase progressively t gradually
20, step-length is 1, each time point 60 days at interval, t
0Be that the change of current becomes the starting point that need carry out the maintenance strategy after putting into operation) on 11 characteristic quantity (x
1Increase progressively x gradually
11, step-length is 1), therefore become net side sleeve pipe, valve side sleeve pipe, net the side sleeve pipe decreases angle of loss together with Jie of winding together with winding and valve side sleeve pipe tangent value according to the said change of current that collects; The change of current becomes net side winding D.C. resistance and valve side winding D.C. resistance; The change of current becomes oil dissolved gas content; And the change of current becomes iron core and the folder insulation resistance carries out change of current accident barrier classification of type: y
10,1, y
10,2, y
11,1, y
11,2..., y
16,1, y
16,2So t
kThe change of current constantly become take place the expectation of said change of current accident barrier type recondition expense into:
3) certain the predicted value f of t characteristic quantity (X, confirming t) constantly
According to the change of current become current states information and historic state information to each characteristic quantity set up anticipation function f (X, t).t
0Characteristic quantity constantly is the reference value (being decided to be 0.1) of overhauling all characteristic quantities that finish, t
1, t
2..., t
20Be respectively remaining in said 21 time points 20 time periods uniformly-spaced, therefore utilize each constantly characteristic quantity constituted a following matrix form:
4) according to f (X, t) calculate certain constantly the Probability p of the various change of current accidents barrier of t type (Y, t)
Utilize the FCM algorithm that the fuzzy membership of all change of current accidents barrier types of said 21 time points is calculated, obtain the change of current and become the Probability p of said fault type when t (Y is t) suc as formula (4).Said FCM algorithm referring to [the stone big waves, in sword, Huang Houkuan; A kind of implementation of effective FCM algorithm; Railway society, 2003/02], in this article to the basic procedure of FCM algorithm: confirm initial cluster center and cluster centre quantity according to the minimax Furthest Neighbor; Calculate sample distribution weights omega j according to new objective function; Calculate the fuzzy membership matrix; If the difference of the J*fcm that fresh target function J*fcm and previous round obtain is less than given threshold epsilon, iteration finishes at this point and exports last fuzzy membership matrix, otherwise calculates sample distribution weights omega j once more and carry out the iteration of a new round.
5) the fault type risk expense expectation R's (t) of certain moment t confirms
The fault type risk expense expectation R (t) of certain moment t is that the said change of current accident of said certain generation of t change of current change constantly hinders type recondition expense expectation cost (y
I, j, t
k) and said certain constantly Probability p (Y, product t) of the various change of current accidents barrier of t type.Its expression formula is suc as formula (5)
6) change of current that economy is high becomes confirming of maintenance strategy
The maintenance cost expectation E that the fault type risk expense expectation R (t) of said certain moment t is tactful with said each maintenance
i(t) compare, carry out the high change of current of economy and become confirming of maintenance strategy:
R (t)＜=E
i(t), explain that the risk of this moment latency is also smaller, need not carry out the change of current and become maintenance; R (t)＞E
i(t), explain that the failure risk of the change of the change of current at this moment is bigger,, may cause bigger loss like untimely maintenance.
Compared with prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects as follows: can confirm the maintenance strategy that economy is best according to change of current change maintenance cost and fault type; Can become maintenance cost and the definite best maintenance strategy of fault type to the change of current, reduce detection and maintenance total expenses that the change of current becomes, prolong the change of current and become life cycle.Both guaranteed that the change of current became reliability of operation, and grasped the ruuning situation of change of current change again and reduced the change of current change cost of overhaul.Cashing for the safe and stable operation of ultra extra-high voltage direct-current transmission engineering and the change of current provides technical support, has brought good social benefit and economic benefit.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is that the change of current of the present invention becomes the preventive trial Data Acquisition;
Fig. 2 is general frame figure of the present invention;
Fig. 3 is a FCM algorithm operating process flow diagram of the present invention;
The maintenance cost expectation E of Fig. 4 fault type risk expense expectation R (t) and each maintenance strategy
i(t) contrast.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and embodiment content of the present invention is explained further details.
Embodiment:
See also shown in Figure 1ly, become example, the present invention is further described below in conjunction with separate unit ± 500kV change of current.
The preventive trial Data Acquisition that the change of current becomes comprises that Jie with serial communication function decreases tester and measures change of current change net side sleeve pipe, valve side sleeve pipe, nets the side sleeve pipe decreases angle of loss together with Jie of winding together with winding and valve side sleeve pipe tangent value; DCR of Transformer tester with serial communication function is measured change of current change net side winding D.C. resistance and valve side winding D.C. resistance; The transformer oil chromatographic analyser obtains the change of current and becomes oil dissolved gas content; Insulation resistance meter is measured the change of current and is become iron core and folder insulation resistance.Jie who wherein has the serial communication function decreases tester, has the DCR of Transformer tester of serial communication function, transformer oil chromatographic analyser, insulation resistance meter, is the commercially available prod.Jie with serial communication function decreases tester and adopts YHJS-IV Jie of the suitable great electric Science and Technology Ltd. in Shanghai to decrease appearance; DCR of Transformer tester with serial communication function adopts the HM-ZRC of western Wuhan state magnificent Electric Appliance Equipment Co., Ltd of electricity; The transformer oil chromatographic analyser adopts the electric power transformer oil analytical chromatograph GC-9310-SD of Shanghai chaste tree and Analytical Instrument Co., Ltd; Insulation resistance meter adopts the electric numerical megger ST2000 of Su Te.Method step is following:
1, the preventive trial Data Acquisition of change of current change: decrease appearance measurement change of current change through YHJS-IV Jie and net side sleeve pipe, valve side sleeve pipe, net the side sleeve pipe decreases angle of loss together with Jie of winding together with winding and valve side sleeve pipe tangent value such as table 1; HM-ZRC DCR of Transformer tester is measured the change of current and is become net side winding D.C. resistance and valve side winding D.C. resistance such as table 2; Electric power transformer oil analytical chromatograph GC-9310-SD measures rheology oil dissolved gas content such as table 3; Numerical megger ST2000 measures the change of current and becomes iron core and folder insulation resistance such as table 4;
Table 1: the change of current becomes net side sleeve pipe, valve side sleeve pipe, nets the side sleeve pipe decreases angle of loss together with Jie of winding together with winding and valve side sleeve pipe tangent value
| The measurement project | Be situated between and decrease the tangent value (%) of angle of loss |
| The change of current becomes net side sleeve pipe | 0.244 |
| Valve side sleeve pipe | 0.353 |
| Net side sleeve pipe is together with winding | 0.325 |
| Valve side sleeve pipe is together with winding | 0.355 |
Table 2: the change of current becomes net side winding D.C. resistance and valve side winding D.C. resistance
| The measurement project | Direct current resistance (m Ω) |
| The change of current becomes net side winding | 63.00 |
| The change of current becomes valve side winding | 59.38 |
Table 3: the change of current becomes oil dissolved gas content
| The dissolved gas classification | Content (10 -6L) |
| Methane | 5.35 |
| Acetylene | 0.00 |
| Ethene | 5.96 |
| Ethane | 2.01 |
| Hydrogen | 9.93 |
| Carbon monoxide | 0.00 |
| Carbon dioxide | 0.00 |
Table 4: the change of current becomes iron core and folder insulation resistance
| The measurement project | Insulation resistance (G Ω) |
| The change of current becomes iron core to folder and ground | 6.91 |
| The change of current becomes folder to iron core and ground | 59.1 |
2, it is definite that an optimization of maintenance strategy is cashed in the change of current
1) it is definite that the change of current becomes maintenance program t expense expectation constantly
Become the maintenance scheme according to the domestic and international change of current, can be divided into the maintenance program that has a power failure immediately, the maintenance program of giving priority in arranging for, keep watch on operating scheme, periodic maintenance scheme and deferred maintenance scheme.The maintenance cost expectation that utilizes formula (1) to calculate each maintenance strategy, its result such as table 5
Table 5: the maintenance cost expectation of each maintenance strategy does
| Maintenance program | Coding | schemeCost | dayCost |
| Maintenance program immediately has a power failure | S 1 | 100 | 0.08*(t-t 0) |
| The maintenance program of giving priority in arranging for | S 2 | 50 | 0.12*(t-t 0) |
| Keep watch on the operating maintenance scheme | S 3 | 10 | 0.4*(t-t 0) |
| The periodic maintenance scheme | S 4 | 40 | 0.4*(t-t 0) |
| The deferred maintenance scheme | S 5 | 0 | 0.5*(t-t 0) |
2) change of current becomes certain confirming of t risk expense expectation constantly
The change of current that collects is become net side sleeve pipe, valve side sleeve pipe, nets the side sleeve pipe decreases angle of loss together with Jie of winding together with winding and valve side sleeve pipe tangent value; The change of current becomes net side winding D.C. resistance and valve side winding D.C. resistance; The change of current becomes oil dissolved gas content; And the change of current becomes iron core and the folder insulation resistance carries out change of current accident barrier classification of type, and utilizes formula (2) to calculate, and obtains the change of current and becomes certain t risk expense expectation constantly like table 6
Table 6: the change of current becomes certain t risk expense expectation constantly
3) certain the predicted value f of t characteristic quantity (X, confirming t) constantly
Utilize formula (3) calculate certain constantly the predicted value f of t characteristic quantity (X is t) like table 7
Table 7: the predicted value f of certain moment t characteristic quantity (X, t)
4) according to f (X, t) calculate certain constantly the Probability p of the various change of current accidents barrier of t type (Y, t)
Utilize formula (3) and f (X, t) calculate certain constantly the Probability p of the various change of current accidents barrier of t type (Y is t) like table 8
Table 8: the Probability p of the various change of current accidents barrier of certain moment t type (Y, t)
5) the fault type risk expense expectation R's (t) of certain moment t confirms
Integrate the fault type risk expense expectation R (t) and the table 5 that utilize formula (4) to calculate certain moment t and respectively overhauled result of calculation such as the table 9 that tactful maintenance cost is expected
Table 9: the maintenance cost expectation E of fault type risk expense expectation R (t) and each maintenance strategy
i(t)
6) change of current that economy is high becomes confirming of maintenance strategy
Table 9 data preparation is obtained Fig. 4: the maintenance cost expectation E of fault type risk expense expectation R (t) and each maintenance strategy
i(t) comparison diagram.According to R (t)＜=E
i(t), explain that the risk of this moment latency is also smaller, need not carry out the change of current and become maintenance; R (t)＞E
i(t), explain that the failure risk of the change of the change of current at this moment is bigger,, may cause the principle of bigger loss like untimely maintenance.Therefore the probability of shutdown property fault is all below 1%, and puts aside the situation that the property fault takes place to shut down in advance.The best maintenance interval of the data declaration that calculates is 32 months, and takes S
2Scheme (maintenance of giving priority in arranging for) is proper, and present scheme be 24 monthly repairs once, just at t
12Time point near overhaul.
Present embodiment can be applied to:
1, ± 500kV DC transmission engineering rectification side change of current change maintenance strategy is definite
2, ± 500kV DC transmission engineering inversion side change of current change maintenance strategy is definite
3, ± 800kV DC transmission engineering rectification side change of current change maintenance strategy is definite
4, ± 800kV DC transmission engineering inversion side change of current change maintenance strategy is definite
5,500kV, 330kV, 220kV, main transformer in the 110kV AC Substation, stand definite with the Repair of Transformer strategy.
Above-listed detailed description is to the specifying of possible embodiments of the present invention, and this embodiment is not in order to limiting claim of the present invention, and the equivalence that all the present invention of disengaging do is implemented or change, all should be contained in the claim of this case.
Claims (1)
1. a change of current realization maintenance policy optimization is confirmed method, it is characterized in that: comprise following steps:
The preventive trial Data Acquisition that S1, the change of current become
1) adopting Jie with serial communication function to decrease tester obtains change of current change net side sleeve pipe, valve side sleeve pipe, nets the side sleeve pipe decreases angle of loss together with Jie of winding together with winding and valve side sleeve pipe tangent value; The DCR of Transformer tester that employing has the serial communication function obtains change of current change net side winding D.C. resistance and valve side winding D.C. resistance; Adopt the transformer oil chromatographic analyser to obtain the change of current and become oil dissolved gas content; Adopt insulation resistance meter to obtain the change of current and become iron core and folder insulation resistance:
The said change of current becomes net side sleeve pipe and comprises ± be used to be connected the change of current change sleeve pipe of AC system in 500kV and the ± 800kV DC transmission system;
The said change of current becomes valve side sleeve pipe and comprises ± and the change of current that is used for said converter valve in 500kV and the ± 800kV DC transmission system becomes sleeve pipe;
Said net side sleeve pipe comprises that together with winding the said change of current becomes net side sleeve pipe and adds the winding that is connected with this sleeve pipe;
Said valve side sleeve pipe comprises that together with winding the said change of current becomes valve side sleeve pipe and adds the winding that is connected with this sleeve pipe;
The tangent value that decreases angle of loss of giving an account of comprises the active loss of dielectric under alternating voltage and the ratio of reactive loss, has reflected the drain performance of dielectric under alternating voltage;
Said net side winding comprises ± be connected the winding of AC system in 500kV and the ± 800kV DC transmission system;
Said valve side winding comprises ± be connected the winding of converter valve in 500kV and the ± 800kV DC transmission system;
Said direct current resistance comprises the ratio of DC voltage and DC current;
The said change of current becomes oil dissolved gas content and comprises ± 500kV become with ± 800kV DC transmission system the change of current in hydrogen content, carbon monoxide content, carbon dioxide content, methane content, acetylene content, ethylene contents and ethane content;
The said change of current becomes iron core and the folder insulation comprises ± 500kV become with ± 800kV DC transmission system the change of current in over the ground insulation resistance of iron core, iron core to the insulation resistance and the folder insulation resistance over the ground of folder;
S2, the change of current are cashed an optimization of maintenance strategy and are confirmed
1) it is definite that the change of current becomes maintenance program t expense expectation constantly
The maintenance cost expectation of setting the maintenance strategy is:
E
i(t)＝schemeCost(i)+dayCost
i(t) (1)
Wherein: E
i(t) be the maintenance cost expectation of t i kind maintenance constantly strategy; SchemeCost (i) is the fixed expense of i kind maintenance strategy, dayCost
i(t) be the extra cost of t i kind maintenance constantly strategy; Concrete calculating comprises:
The maintenance strategy is an interruption maintenance strategy immediately when i=1; Coding is S
1, the value of schemeCost (1) is 100, dayCost
1(t) value is 0.08* (t-t
0), t
0It is the starting point that to carry out the maintenance strategy after change of current change puts into operation;
The maintenance strategy is the maintenance strategy of giving priority in arranging for when i=2; Coding is S
2, the value of schemeCost (2) is 50, dayCost
2(t) value is 0.12* (t-t
0), t
0It is the starting point that to carry out the maintenance strategy after change of current change puts into operation;
The maintenance strategy is to keep watch on the operating maintenance strategy when i=3; Coding is S
3, the value of schemeCost (3) is 10, dayCost
3(t) value is 0.4* (t-t
0), t
0It is the starting point that to carry out the maintenance strategy after change of current change puts into operation;
The maintenance strategy is the prophylactic repair strategy when i=4; Coding is S
4, the value of schemeCost (4) is 40, dayCost
4(t) value is 0.4* (t-t
0), t
0It is the starting point that to carry out the maintenance strategy after change of current change puts into operation;
The maintenance strategy is an extension interruption maintenance strategy when i=5; Coding is S
5, the value of schemeCost (5) is 0, dayCost
5(t) value is 0.5* (t-t
0), t
0It is the starting point that to carry out the maintenance strategy after change of current change puts into operation;
2) change of current becomes certain confirming of t risk expense expectation constantly
The change of current that collects is become net side sleeve pipe, valve side sleeve pipe, nets the side sleeve pipe decreases angle of loss together with Jie of winding together with winding and valve side sleeve pipe tangent value; The change of current becomes net side winding D.C. resistance and valve side winding D.C. resistance; The change of current becomes oil dissolved gas content; And the change of current becomes iron core and the folder insulation resistance carries out change of current accident barrier classification of type, and said fault type classification comprises:
It is poor not greater than 5% o'clock with last secondary data respectively that Jie that the change of current becomes net side sleeve pipe and valve side sleeve pipe decreases the tangent value of angle of loss, confirms that fault type comprises sleeve pipe fault, insulating medium fault;
Net side sleeve pipe decreases angle of loss together with Jie of winding together with winding and valve side sleeve pipe tangent value in the time of 20 ℃ greater than 0.6%, or respectively with last secondary data comparison greater than 30%, confirm that fault type comprises sleeve pipe fault, winding failure, insulating medium fault;
Change of current change net side winding D.C. resistance and valve side winding D.C. resistance are poor not greater than 2% o'clock with last secondary data respectively, confirm that fault type comprises winding failure, shunting switch fault;
When the change of current becomes oil dissolved gas content hydrogen content greater than 150 μ L/L; When perhaps methane content, acetylene content, ethylene contents and ethane content summation are greater than 150 μ L/L; Perhaps carbon monoxide content and carbon dioxide content total amount confirm that greater than 0 o'clock failed-type comprises winding failure, shunting switch fault, insulating medium fault, lead wire fault;
Iron core and folder insulation resistance are poor when not big with last secondary data respectively, confirm that fault type comprises the iron core fault;
The otherness of the consequence of bringing according to the different faults type is further segmented change of current accident barrier type, and given recondition expense, comprising:
Winding failure (coding: y
10) comprise the insulation (coding: y that descends
10,1) cause consequence to be stopped transport and ten thousand yuan of recondition expense W1; Overload (coding: y
10,2) cause the consequence efficiency to reduce and cost of overhaul WT1 ten thousand/sky;
Sleeve pipe fault (coding: Y
11) comprise seepage oil (coding: y
11,1) cause consequence to be stopped transport and ten thousand yuan of recondition expense W2; Leakage field (coding: y
11,2) cause the consequence efficiency to reduce and recondition expense WT2 ten thousand/sky;
Insulating medium fault (coding: y
12) comprise insulation breakdown (coding: y
12,1) cause consequence to be stopped transport and ten thousand yuan of recondition expense W3; Insulation descends and (encodes: y
12,2) cause the consequence efficiency to reduce and recondition expense WT3 ten thousand/sky;
Exhausted iron core fault (coding: y
13) comprise multipoint earthing (coding: y
13,1) cause consequence to be stopped transport and ten thousand yuan of recondition expense W4; Leakage field heating (coding: y
13,2) cause the consequence efficiency to reduce and recondition expense WT4 ten thousand/sky;
Shunting switch fault (coding: y
14) comprise mechanical fault (coding: y
14,1) cause consequence to be stopped transport and ten thousand yuan of recondition expense W5; Loose contact (coding: y
14,2) cause the consequence efficiency to reduce and recondition expense WT5 ten thousand/sky;
Lead wire fault (coding: y
15) comprise short circuit (coding: y
15,1) cause consequence to be stopped transport and ten thousand yuan of recondition expense W6; Loose contact (coding: y
15,2) cause the consequence efficiency to reduce and recondition expense WT6 ten thousand/sky;
Oil leakage fault (coding: y
16) comprise the leakage of oil of device body (coding: y
16,1) cause consequence to be stopped transport and ten thousand yuan of recondition expense W7; Buchholz relay (coding: y
16,2) cause the consequence efficiency to reduce and recondition expense WT7 ten thousand/sky;
Become at 21 time point (t according to a large amount of changes of current change historical datas and the change of current
0Increase progressively t gradually
20, step-length is 1, each time point 60 days at interval, t
0Be that the change of current becomes the starting point that need carry out the maintenance strategy after putting into operation) on 11 characteristic quantity (x
1Increase progressively x gradually
11, step-length is 1), therefore become net side sleeve pipe, valve side sleeve pipe, net the side sleeve pipe decreases angle of loss together with Jie of winding together with winding and valve side sleeve pipe tangent value according to the said change of current that collects; The change of current becomes net side winding D.C. resistance and valve side winding D.C. resistance; The change of current becomes oil dissolved gas content; And the change of current becomes iron core and the folder insulation resistance carries out change of current accident barrier classification of type: y
10,1, y
10,2, y
11,1, y
11,2..., y
16,1, y
16,2So t
kThe change of current constantly become take place the expectation of said change of current accident barrier type recondition expense into:
3) certain the predicted value f of t characteristic quantity (X, confirming t) constantly
According to the change of current become current states information and historic state information to each characteristic quantity set up anticipation function f (X, t).t
0Characteristic quantity constantly is the reference value (being decided to be 0.1) of overhauling all characteristic quantities that finish, t
1, t
2..., t
20Be respectively remaining in said 21 time points 20 time periods uniformly-spaced, therefore utilize each constantly characteristic quantity constituted a following matrix form:
4) according to X (t) calculate certain constantly the Probability p of the various change of current accidents barrier of t type (Y, t)
Utilize the FCM algorithm that the fuzzy membership of all change of current accidents barrier types of said 21 time points is calculated, obtain the change of current and become the Probability p of said fault type when t (Y is t) suc as formula (4);
5) the fault type risk expense expectation R's (t) of certain moment t confirms
The fault type risk expense expectation R (t) of certain moment t is that the said change of current accident of said certain generation of t change of current change constantly hinders type recondition expense expectation cost (y
I, j, t
k) and said certain constantly the Probability p of the various change of current accidents barrier of t type (its expression formula is suc as formula (5) for Y, product t)
6) change of current that economy is high becomes confirming of maintenance strategy
The maintenance cost expectation E that the fault type risk expense expectation R (t) of said certain moment t is tactful with said each maintenance
i(t) compare:
R (t)＜=E
i(t), explain that the risk of this moment latency is little, need not carry out the change of current and become maintenance; R (t)＞E
i(t), explain that the failure risk that change of current this moment becomes is big.
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| CN103116089A (en) * | 2013-01-16 | 2013-05-22 | 湖北省电力公司电力科学研究院 | Converter transformer state judgment method capable of eliminating factors of conversion selector |
| CN104201955A (en) * | 2014-08-12 | 2014-12-10 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司超高压输电公司广州局 | Ultra high voltage conversion transformer tap switch control method based on variable discourse domain fuzzy |
| CN106154119A (en) * | 2015-03-24 | 2016-11-23 | 国家电网公司 | A kind of extra-high voltage direct-current transmission engineering converter power transformer aerogenesis verification method |
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| CN107730084A (en) * | 2017-09-18 | 2018-02-23 | 杭州安脉盛智能技术有限公司 | Repair of Transformer decision-making technique based on gray prediction and risk assessment |
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Cited By (9)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102967696A (en) * | 2012-11-13 | 2013-03-13 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司超高压输电公司检修试验中心 | Method for predicting gas in direct-current-transmission conversion transformation oil |
| CN102967696B (en) * | 2012-11-13 | 2014-10-01 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司超高压输电公司检修试验中心 | Method for predicting gas in direct-current-transmission conversion transformation oil |
| CN103116089A (en) * | 2013-01-16 | 2013-05-22 | 湖北省电力公司电力科学研究院 | Converter transformer state judgment method capable of eliminating factors of conversion selector |
| CN103116089B (en) * | 2013-01-16 | 2015-02-04 | 湖北省电力公司电力科学研究院 | Converter transformer state judgment method capable of eliminating factors of conversion selector |
| CN104201955A (en) * | 2014-08-12 | 2014-12-10 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司超高压输电公司广州局 | Ultra high voltage conversion transformer tap switch control method based on variable discourse domain fuzzy |
| CN106154119A (en) * | 2015-03-24 | 2016-11-23 | 国家电网公司 | A kind of extra-high voltage direct-current transmission engineering converter power transformer aerogenesis verification method |
| CN106154119B (en) * | 2015-03-24 | 2019-03-19 | 国家电网公司 | A kind of extra-high voltage direct-current transmission engineering converter power transformer production gas verification method |
| CN107315119A (en) * | 2017-06-21 | 2017-11-03 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司超高压输电公司广州局 | A kind of extreme high voltage converter transformer valve group is taken out stitches and test method |
| CN107730084A (en) * | 2017-09-18 | 2018-02-23 | 杭州安脉盛智能技术有限公司 | Repair of Transformer decision-making technique based on gray prediction and risk assessment |
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