CN102289571A - Load optimal scheduling method for ocean energy power generation system based on energy forecast - Google Patents
Load optimal scheduling method for ocean energy power generation system based on energy forecast Download PDFInfo
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- CN102289571A CN102289571A CN2011102080929A CN201110208092A CN102289571A CN 102289571 A CN102289571 A CN 102289571A CN 2011102080929 A CN2011102080929 A CN 2011102080929A CN 201110208092 A CN201110208092 A CN 201110208092A CN 102289571 A CN102289571 A CN 102289571A
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Abstract
The invention relates to a load optimal scheduling method for an ocean energy power generation system based on energy forecast. The load optimal scheduling method comprises the following steps of: establishing a math model for mid-long term ocean energy forecast and a math model for previous-day ocean energy forecast; forecasting a current ocean energy value according to the models; acquiring meteorological elements influencing the ocean energy at the current moment; establishing an ocean energy value based on the meteorological elements at the current moment; processing the values in the steps into an effective multidimensional ocean energy random sequence; converting and correcting the sequence to obtain a final ocean energy forecast result; and scheduling the final ocean energy forecast result by combining energy information and load demand value information of an energy storage unit according to a multi-target optimization rule so as to realize rational energy distribution. By adoption of the scheduling method, the energy utilization efficiency of the ocean energy power generation system can be improved.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to the power generation with marine energy field, be specifically related to a kind of based on the load optimized dispatching method that comes foreseeable power generation with marine energy system.
Background technology
Along with development of human society, population constantly increases, and the soil and the energy become in short supply, and more and more countries has been invested exploitation to the island to sight.China island are numerous, country is also strengthening the exploitation dynamics on island, for solving the electric power supply problem on the island, all built up the power generation with marine energy facility on a lot of island, these power generating equipments mainly are to rely on wave energy and trend to generate electricity, yet wave energy and trend can be subjected to the influence of climatic factor very big, has bigger instability, some is the generated energy deficiency constantly, some is the generated energy surplus constantly, and prior art is very much passive when this problem of reply, can only lack electricity consumption when generation deficiency, unnecessary electric energy was wasted when generating was superfluous, so be badly in need of a kind of effective load optimized dispatching method at the power generation with marine energy system now.
Summary of the invention
The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is, provides a kind of effective based on the load optimized dispatching method that comes foreseeable power generation with marine energy system.
For solving the problems of the technologies described above, technical scheme provided by the invention is: a kind of based on the load optimized dispatching method that comes foreseeable power generation with marine energy system, it is realized by following steps:
(1) set up medium-term and long-term ocean and come foreseeable mathematical model, the ocean current according to model prediction can be worth;
(2) foreseeable mathematical model is come in the ocean of setting up the previous day, and the ocean current according to model prediction can be worth;
(3) the big or small meteorological element of energy is come in the ocean that influences of gathering current time;
(4) foundation can be worth based on the ocean of the current time of meteorological element;
(5) value of comprehensive step (1)～(4), analysis and arrangement become effective multidimensional ocean to come the energy random series;
(6) the effective multidimensional ocean that obtains in the step (5) is come can random series be scaled to change into theoretical prediction value behind the electric energy;
(7) historical data that converts the predicted value that obtains in the step (6) and ocean energy to electric energy averages predicting the outcome of obtaining revising after the computing;
(8) result who obtains in the step (7) is carried out error correction once more through the artificial neural network computing unit, draw final power generation with marine energy power prediction result;
(9) set up the load power consumption historical information database, therefrom inquire last year loading demand value of the same period and the previous day loading demand value of the same period and carry out average calculating operation and draw historical same period of loading demand mean value;
(10) set up the energy-storage units enquiry module, inquire current energy storage value;
(11) value that step (8)～(10) draw is synthesized and coordinated by the multiple-objection optimization principle, draw energy value that flows to energy-storage units and the energy value that flows to the user at last.
On average be meant weighted mean in the described step (7), the shared weight of historical data that ocean energy converts electric energy to is 80%.
Multiple-objection optimization principle in the described step (11) is meant economic optimum principle, power supply principle of optimality and energy storage principle of optimality.
The energy value that flows to the user in the described step (11) is divided into dead load energy part and variable load energy part; Dead load energy part is preferential carries.
Employing the present invention is directed to based on the load optimized dispatching method that comes foreseeable power generation with marine energy system, has the following advantages:
First, the present invention by the present invention by to the integrated forecasting of power generation with marine energy energy, energy-storage units energy, load consumption power, in advance Optimization Dispatching is made in load, made load power consumption and total power supply energy keep a mobile equilibrium, the operation that keeps the whole stabilization of power grids to continue.
The second, the present invention handles by carry out multiple-objection optimization to predicting the outcome, and realizes optimized load dispatch, has reduced energy loss, has improved the efficient of generating.
Description of drawings
Accompanying drawing is the process flow diagram that the present invention is based on the load optimized dispatching method of foreseeable power generation with marine energy system.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing the specific embodiment of the present invention is elaborated.
As shown in drawings, a kind of based on the load optimized dispatching method that comes foreseeable power generation with marine energy system, it is characterized in that: it is realized by following steps:
(1) set up medium-term and long-term ocean and come foreseeable mathematical model, the ocean current according to model prediction can be worth;
(2) foreseeable mathematical model is come in the ocean of setting up the previous day, and the ocean current according to model prediction can be worth;
(3) the big or small meteorological element of energy is come in the ocean that influences of gathering current time;
(4) foundation can be worth based on the ocean of the current time of meteorological element;
(5) value of comprehensive step (1)～(4), analysis and arrangement become effective multidimensional ocean to come the energy random series;
(6) the effective multidimensional ocean that obtains in the step (5) is come can random series be scaled to change into theoretical prediction value behind the electric energy;
(7) historical data that converts the predicted value that obtains in the step (6) and ocean energy to electric energy averages predicting the outcome of obtaining revising after the computing;
(8) result who obtains in the step (7) is carried out error correction once more through the artificial neural network computing unit, draw final power generation with marine energy power prediction result;
(9) set up the load power consumption historical information database, therefrom inquire last year loading demand value of the same period and the previous day loading demand value of the same period and carry out average calculating operation and draw historical same period of loading demand mean value;
(10) set up the energy-storage units enquiry module, inquire current energy storage value;
(11) value that step (8)～(10) draw is synthesized and coordinated by the multiple-objection optimization principle, draw energy value that flows to energy-storage units and the energy value that flows to the user at last.
On average be meant weighted mean in the described step (7), the shared weight of historical data that ocean energy converts electric energy to is 80%.
Multiple-objection optimization principle in the described step (11) is meant economic optimum principle, power supply principle of optimality and energy storage principle of optimality.
The energy value that flows to the user in the described step (11) is divided into dead load energy part and variable load energy part; Dead load energy part is preferential carries.
The present invention in the specific implementation, predetermined period minimum is 1 hour, is 24 hours to the maximum, the user can set by demand.Foreseeable mathematical model is come in medium-term and long-term ocean described in the step (1), can adopt the database structure that to inquire about, to generate electricity in advance that the historical ocean in marine site comes can the information input data storehouse, therefrom retrieves annual and prediction ocean energy value of the same period and obtain the average of these values constantly then.Foreseeable mathematical model is come in the ocean of the previous day described in the step (2), and promptly the ocean in the identical period with current prediction period of the previous day can be worth.Current time described in step (3) and the step (4) is meant and begins initial moment that next period is predicted; Meteorological element described in the step (3) is meant the flow velocity of wave height, wind speed, wind direction, trend.Multidimensional ocean in the step (5) is come and can random series be comprised: the ocean of above-mentioned meteorological element, current time is come can predicted value, medium-term and long-term ocean is come can predicted value, the previous day, come can predicted value and time dimension in the ocean.Conversion described in the step (6) is meant: by above-mentioned multidimensional ocean being come the preface structure characteristic analysis of energy random series, obtain the proper vector of preface structure, and calculate the predicted value of the following power output of power generation with marine energy system.Artificial neural network described in the step (7) can adopt process neural network.Process neuron has increased a polymerization operator for the time, make network have the space-time two-dimension information processing capability simultaneously, because the input in the native system, output are to depend on the time variation, so can utilize process neural network to describe the power generation with marine energy forecast model.Need to prove in the above-mentioned steps, need enquiry of historical data if run into certain step, but the situation of corresponding historical data disappearance, the inventive method will be skipped this step, and continue the operation following step.
On the step of electric energy scheduling, described economic optimum principle is meant: the generating capacity of power generation with marine energy system is distributed to accumulator system and variable load system with generated energy during greater than the dead load demand, reaches the maximum utilization of energy; Described power supply principle of optimality is meant: the powered operation strategy that satisfies reliability and security; Described energy storage principle of optimality is meant: by discharging and recharging control loop, energy storage device is operated under the optimal conditions.Described dead load energy partly is meant: with basic household electricity demands such as the electricity consumption of important departments such as military affairs, hospital and illuminations, described variable load energy partly is meant: commercial power demands such as civilian electricity such as air-conditioning, refrigerator is light with system, ice making.
Claims (4)
1. one kind based on the load optimized dispatching method that comes foreseeable power generation with marine energy system, and it is characterized in that: it is realized by following steps:
(1) set up medium-term and long-term ocean and come foreseeable mathematical model, the ocean current according to model prediction can be worth;
(2) foreseeable mathematical model is come in the ocean of setting up the previous day, and the ocean current according to model prediction can be worth;
(3) the big or small meteorological element of energy is come in the ocean that influences of gathering current time;
(4) foundation can be worth based on the ocean of the current time of meteorological element;
(5) value of comprehensive step (1)～(4), analysis and arrangement become effective multidimensional ocean to come the energy random series;
(6) the effective multidimensional ocean that obtains in the step (5) is come can random series be scaled to change into theoretical prediction value behind the electric energy;
(7) historical data that converts the predicted value that obtains in the step (6) and ocean energy to electric energy averages predicting the outcome of obtaining revising after the computing;
(8) result who obtains in the step (7) is carried out error correction once more through the artificial neural network computing unit, draw final power generation with marine energy power prediction result;
(9) set up the load power consumption historical information database, therefrom inquire last year loading demand value of the same period and the previous day loading demand value of the same period and carry out average calculating operation and draw historical same period of loading demand mean value;
(10) set up the energy-storage units enquiry module, inquire current energy storage value;
(11) value that step (8)～(10) draw is synthesized and coordinated by the multiple-objection optimization principle, draw energy value that flows to energy-storage units and the energy value that flows to the user at last.
2. according to claim 1 based on the load optimized dispatching method that comes foreseeable power generation with marine energy system, it is characterized in that: on average be meant weighted mean in the described step (7), the shared weight of historical data that ocean energy converts electric energy to is 80%.
3. according to claim 1 based on the load optimized dispatching method that comes foreseeable power generation with marine energy system, it is characterized in that: the multiple-objection optimization principle in the described step (11) is meant economic optimum principle, power supply principle of optimality and energy storage principle of optimality.
4. according to claim 1 based on the load optimized dispatching method that comes foreseeable power generation with marine energy system, it is characterized in that: the energy value that flows to the user in the described step (11) is divided into dead load energy part and variable load energy part; Dead load energy part is preferential carries.
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN104627348A (en) * | 2015-02-27 | 2015-05-20 | 上海海事大学 | Method for realtime prediction and dynamic distribution of regenerated energy of solar airship |
| CN107169599A (en) * | 2017-05-12 | 2017-09-15 | 东北大学 | A kind of Multiobjective Optimal Operation method based on iron and steel enterprise's energy resource system |
| CN110222872A (en) * | 2019-05-12 | 2019-09-10 | 天津大学 | Long-term statistical prediction methods in the more elements in ocean based on empirical orthogonal function decomposition |
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| US11802537B2 (en) | 2018-08-13 | 2023-10-31 | International Business Machines Corporation | Methods and systems for wave energy generation prediction and optimization |
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| DE102007019027A1 (en) * | 2006-04-18 | 2007-12-13 | Holder, Karl Ludwig, Dipl.-Ing. | Regenerative generation method for hydrogen and oxygen, ammonia and methanol from wind energy into electrical energy, involves transforming energy and subsequent electrolysis of water with obtained electrical energy |
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| CN1763783A (en) * | 2004-10-20 | 2006-04-26 | 艾默生过程管理电力和水力解决方案有限公司 | Method and apparatus for providing load dispatch and pollution control optimization |
| DE102007019027A1 (en) * | 2006-04-18 | 2007-12-13 | Holder, Karl Ludwig, Dipl.-Ing. | Regenerative generation method for hydrogen and oxygen, ammonia and methanol from wind energy into electrical energy, involves transforming energy and subsequent electrolysis of water with obtained electrical energy |
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Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN104627348A (en) * | 2015-02-27 | 2015-05-20 | 上海海事大学 | Method for realtime prediction and dynamic distribution of regenerated energy of solar airship |
| CN107169599A (en) * | 2017-05-12 | 2017-09-15 | 东北大学 | A kind of Multiobjective Optimal Operation method based on iron and steel enterprise's energy resource system |
| CN107169599B (en) * | 2017-05-12 | 2020-04-14 | 东北大学 | Multi-objective optimization scheduling method based on energy system of iron and steel enterprise |
| CN110222872A (en) * | 2019-05-12 | 2019-09-10 | 天津大学 | Long-term statistical prediction methods in the more elements in ocean based on empirical orthogonal function decomposition |
| CN110222872B (en) * | 2019-05-12 | 2023-04-18 | 天津大学 | Ocean multi-factor medium and long term statistical prediction method based on empirical orthogonal function decomposition |
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