A kind of method of utilizing vapour pressure model prediction transmission line of electricity ice thickness
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of method of utilizing vapour pressure model prediction transmission line of electricity ice thickness.
Background technology
Wire icing refers under certain meteorological condition, the spontaneous phenomenon that the ice crystal material gathers around lead, wire icing can cause the increase of electric wire and shaft tower load, change the electric wire round cross section simultaneously, enlarge front face area, very easily produce unsettled relaxation and shake, often cause and jump head, flashover, reverse, break, incident such as bar, thereby cause accident such as power failure.Freezing disaster is one of serious disaster, as in the U.S., because of the freezing disaster loss amount of money every year on average up to millions of units, singly being that of the Northeastern United States in 1998 and the Canadian southeast is freezing has just caused about 4,000,000,000 dollars loss.China also is one of the most serious country of powerline ice-covering in the world, and the wire icing disaster mainly occurs in southwest, northwest and Central China.Wire icing is a kind of vertical load of overhead transmission lines such as electric power, communication, and serious icing can cause transmission line of electricity machinery and electric property sharply to descend, and causes communications and transportation, electric power, communicating interrupt, brings to agricultural production to seriously influence.
The statistical nature of wire icing can estimate that but still inadequate to the accurate observation data of actual electric wire icing at present, especially long-term icing observation sequence is famine especially according to former accumulated ice accident both at home and abroad.This makes transmission line of electricity to carry out scientific and reasonable layout and design according to the icing situation of reality, engineering cost is increased, make some circuit can not satisfy the requirement of the anti-ice of transmission line of electricity on the other hand again, thereby take place to jump head, flashover, reverse, break, incident such as bar, the generation of accident such as cause power failure.
For satisfying the demand of the anti-ice of transmission line of electricity (anti-icing) design to the icing data, present stage mainly adopts the mode of setting up the icing research station to gather the icing observation data.The automatic icing recording geometry of the electronics cisco unity malfunction under severe cold condition that uses causes the mass data disappearance at present.Therefore, under the situation that does not have reliable and stable automatic observing system, artificial observation becomes the sole mode of gathering the ice covering thickness data.But artificial observation is full of risk, and security incident easily takes place in observation process the observation personnel, and personnel's working environment is arduous, living guarantee is difficult, and investment cost is higher.For averting risks, reduce investment, adopt the mode of the key element of making weather observations to predict electric power line ice-covering thickness, this innovation mode can effectively be avoided the deficiency of artificial observation mode.
Summary of the invention
Goal of the invention of the present invention is: at the problem of above-mentioned existence, a kind of method of utilizing vapour pressure model prediction transmission line of electricity ice thickness is provided, by the ice thickness of vapour pressure model prediction transmission line of electricity, thereby arrange with design for the anti-ice (anti-icing) of icing transmission line of electricity and to provide support.
Purpose of the present invention realizes by following technical proposals:
A kind of method of utilizing vapour pressure model prediction transmission line of electricity ice thickness comprises the steps:
The first step, the collection on-site wire icing data of transmission line of electricity and meteorological element data, described wire icing data comprises: icing major diameter, minor axis, ice weight, icing process beginning and ending time, icing feature, and described meteorological element data comprises: temperature, humidity, air pressure, visibility, quantity of precipitation, wind speed, wind direction data;
Second goes on foot, wire icing data in the step 1 and meteorological element data is put in order by East and West direction and north-south respectively, the icing data of arrangement comprises: date, the duration of certain record, wire icing major diameter, minor axis, ice weight, ice covering thickness, actual measurement icing density that icing occurs, the meteorological element data of arrangement comprises: wind direction and wind speed, wet and dry bulb temperature, quantity of precipitation, vapour pressure, relative humidity, visibility, vapor transfer amount, and method for sorting is as follows: observation time is corresponding one by one with various meteorological element observed readings or calculated value;
The 3rd goes on foot, the data of putting in order in the step 2 is added up respectively accordingly, add up by summing mode respectively for 12 hours precipitation number of times in process duration, process record number of times, the process and quantum of rainfall, add up by arithmetic mean respectively for the average vertical wind speed in maximum ice covering thickness, actual measurement icing density, the process, the average vapor transfer amount in the process, the medial temperature in the process;
The 4th step, with the data substitution ice thickness fitting formula of putting in order, prediction transmission line of electricity ice thickness;
Described ice thickness fitting formula is as follows:
In the formula, D is an ice thickness, D
WBe rime ice thickness, D
JBe the glaze ice thickness;
Wherein, D
JComputing formula as follows:
R is a raininess, the mm/h of unit, got (being recorded as observation in per 12 hours once) by total rainfall amount in the icing process again divided by 12 hours divided by rainfall amount record number of times L, promptly divided by (L * 12), τ is the duration (promptly from icing process the zero hour to the duration of process the finish time) of icing process;
D
WComputing formula as follows:
Vn is a wind speed in the formula, and c, d are icing process efficiency and wind speed fitting coefficient, and Q is the vapor transfer rate, and τ is the duration of icing process, and ρ is an icing density;
Icing process efficiency and wind speed fitting coefficient c and d adopt curve-fitting method to determine: definition Y is the icing process efficiency, has
, order
, calculate Y and wind speed Vn respectively according to the ASSOCIATE STATISTICS of a plurality of icing processes, utilize the calculated value of a plurality of Y and Vn to obtain fitted figure, can obtain the value of c and d according to fitted figure;
The computing formula of icing density p is as follows:
, a plurality of temperature t values in the different icing processes and ρ value correspondence are carried out match, can obtain fitted figure, thereby determine the value of fitting coefficient x, z;
The computing formula of Q is as follows:
Q in the formula
wBe absolute humidity, unit is (g.m
-3), V is a wind speed, θ is the angle of wind speed and lead, above-mentioned q
Wi, V
i, θ
iBe the observed reading each time in the same icing process;
q
wComputing formula as follows:
E is a vapour pressure, and T is absolute temperature (a T=273.15+ Celsius temperature)
In the described step 2, ice is heavy to be defined as: the ice that the measured value of weighing behind the ice is converted on every meter lead is heavy with getting on the lead.
In the described step 2, the computing formula of actual measurement icing density is as follows:
Wherein G is heavy for ice, and r is the lead radius, and a is a major diameter, and b is a minor axis, and unit is mm.
The duration of described certain record is meant: in icing process, be carved into the time that this icing record is experienced constantly when the icing process record is initial from last time, unit is h;
The computing method of described equivalent redius are as follows: the shape of wire icing is seen ovalization, be calculated as follows:
Wherein a is a major diameter, and b is oval minor axis, and unit is mm;
Described equivalent redius increment is defined as: in the same icing process, this record equivalent redius and last constantly writes down the poor of moment equivalent redius;
Described ice covering thickness is defined as: equivalent redius and lead radius poor, and computing formula is as follows:
Wherein a is a major diameter, and b is a minor axis, and r is the lead radius, and unit is mm;
Described ice is heavy to be defined as: will get the measured value of weighing behind the ice on the lead, the ice that is converted on every meter lead is heavy, the g/m of unit;
The method for sorting of described wind direction and wind speed is as follows: wind speed is by the automatic record of instrument, and wind speed unit is m/s; Wind direction is according to 16 direction records such as all directions, and calculates this wind direction and east-west direction respectively, and the angle of wind direction and North and South direction lead is promptly asked wind speed direction θ in the formula of vapor transfer amount;
The method for sorting of described wet and dry bulb temperature is as follows: by carrying out 4 observation at 2,8,14,20 respectively, the record wet and dry bulb temperature artificial every day;
The method for sorting of described quantity of precipitation is as follows: observing twice every day, is that 8 to 20 and 20 are to 8 quantity of precipitation next day, the mm of unit;
The method for sorting of described vapour pressure is as follows: utilize the wet and dry bulb temperature value to look into and draw, unit is hundred handkerchiefs (hPa);
Described relative humidity is by automatic instrument record;
The method for sorting of described visibility is as follows: carry out 8,14,20 of every days 3 observation.
Described process duration is meant: an icing process is carved into the last record time constantly in the process from the outset;
Described process record number of times is meant: an icing process is carved into the weather data record number of times sum during the last record moment in the process from the outset;
Described maximum ice covering thickness is meant: process writes down pairing ice covering thickness constantly for the last time;
Described actual measurement icing density is meant: maximum ice covering thickness is pairing icing density constantly;
Average vertical wind speed in the described process is meant: the mean value that writes down vertical velocities all between the moment from icing the zero hour to the end;
Average vapor transfer amount in the described process is meant: the vapor transfer amount mean value that writes down observation stations all between the moment from icing the zero hour to the end;
Medial temperature in the described process is meant: the mean value that writes down temperature all between the moment from icing the zero hour to the end;
12 hours precipitation number of times and quantum of rainfall in the described process are meant: statistics is from beginning to occur to the times N of 12 hours quantity of precipitation in the finish time, and each precipitation that adds up and be the precipitation total amount.
This method has adopted the thickness of a plurality of meteorological factor prediction such as wind speed, wind direction, quantity of precipitation, temperature, visibility, moisture content, freezing time lead accumulated ice, have higher accuracy, can provide scientific basis for the anti-ice of transmission line of electricity, anti-icing and deicing.
Description of drawings
The correlation scatter diagram of Fig. 1 Erlongshan Mountains East and West direction wire icing process density p and temperature on average.
The correlation scatter diagram of Fig. 2 Erlongshan Mountains East and West direction icing process efficiency index Y and wind speed V.
Embodiment
A kind of method of utilizing vapour pressure model prediction transmission line of electricity ice thickness comprises the steps:
The first step, the collection on-site wire icing data of transmission line of electricity and meteorological element data, described wire icing data comprises: icing major diameter, minor axis, ice weight, icing process beginning and ending time, icing feature, and described meteorological element data comprises: temperature, humidity, air pressure, visibility, quantity of precipitation, wind speed, wind direction data;
Second step, wire icing data in the step 1 and meteorological element data are put in order by East and West direction and north-south respectively, the icing data of arrangement comprises: the date that icing occurs, the duration of certain record, the wire icing major diameter, minor axis, ice is heavy, ice covering thickness, actual measurement icing density (wherein ice covering thickness and actual measurement icing density are calculated value), the meteorological element data of arrangement comprises: wind direction and wind speed, wet and dry bulb temperature, quantity of precipitation, vapour pressure, relative humidity, visibility, vapor transfer amount (wherein the vapor transfer amount is a calculated value), method for sorting is as follows: observation time is corresponding one by one with various meteorological element observed readings or calculated value;
The 3rd goes on foot, the data of putting in order in the step 2 is added up respectively accordingly, add up by summing mode respectively for 12 hours precipitation number of times in process duration, process record number of times, the process and quantum of rainfall, add up by arithmetic mean respectively for the average vertical wind speed in maximum ice covering thickness, actual measurement icing density, the process, the average vapor transfer amount in the process, the medial temperature in the process;
The 4th step, with the data substitution ice thickness fitting formula of putting in order, prediction transmission line of electricity ice thickness;
The ice thickness fitting formula is as follows:
In the formula, D is an ice thickness, D
WBe rime ice thickness, D
JBe the glaze ice thickness;
D
JComputing formula as follows:
R was a raininess, and the mm/h of unit got (being recorded as observation in per 12 hours once) by total rainfall amount in the icing process again divided by rainfall amount record number of times L divided by 12 hours, and promptly divided by (L * 12), τ is the duration of icing process;
D
WComputing formula as follows:
V in the formula
nBe wind speed, c, d are icing process efficiency and wind speed fitting coefficient, and Q is the vapor transfer rate, and τ is the duration of icing process, and ρ is an icing density;
Icing process efficiency and wind speed fitting coefficient c and d adopt curve-fitting method to determine: definition Y is the icing process efficiency, has
, order
, calculate Y and wind speed Vn respectively according to the ASSOCIATE STATISTICS of a plurality of icing processes, utilize the calculated value of a plurality of Y and Vn to obtain fitted figure, can obtain the value of c and d according to fitted figure;
The computing formula of icing density p is as follows:
, a plurality of temperature t values in the different icing processes and ρ value correspondence are carried out match, can obtain fitted figure, thereby determine the value of fitting coefficient x, z;
The computing formula of Q is as follows:
Q in the formula
wBe absolute humidity, unit is (g.m
-3), V is a wind speed, θ is the angle of wind speed and lead, above-mentioned q
Wi, V
i, θ
iBe the observed reading each time in the same icing process;
q
wComputing formula as follows:
E is a vapour pressure, and T is absolute temperature (a T=273.15+ Celsius temperature)
In the described step 2, ice is heavy to be defined as: the ice that the measured value of weighing behind the ice is converted on every meter lead is heavy with getting on the lead.
In the described step 2, the computing formula of actual measurement icing density is as follows:
Wherein G is heavy for ice, and r is the lead radius, and a is a major diameter, and b is a minor axis, and unit is mm.
Present embodiment is seen the ice station based on Erlongshan Mountains, collect wire icing data and meteorological element data, wherein the wire icing data comprises icing major diameter, minor axis, ice weight, icing process beginning and ending time, icing feature data, and the meteorological element data comprises temperature, humidity, air pressure, visibility, quantity of precipitation, wind speed, wind direction data.
Owing to have following relational expression between icing density and the temperature
, icing density can adopt approximating method to obtain.According to the related data in Erlongshan Mountains, obtain fitted figure as shown in Figure 1.The fitting coefficient x and the z that are obtained density and temperature relation formula by Fig. 1 are respectively: x=-0.3019, z=1.6104.
See the related data at ice station according to Erlongshan Mountains, make the correlation scatter diagram of Erlongshan Mountains East and West direction icing process efficiency index Y and wind speed V, as shown in Figure 2, according to fitted figure, the value that obtains icing process efficiency and wind speed fitting coefficient c and d is respectively 0.0953 and-0.9753.
In relevant coefficient substitution ice thickness fitting formula, obtain following fitting formula:
In the present embodiment, the date of selecting icing to occur is the process in 13: 40 on the 11st to 12: 50 on the 15th February in 2011, lasting time τ=95.17 hour.
The related data of this icing process is as shown in table 1:
Table 1 icing process related data
Vapour pressure E |
The T temperature |
Absolute temperature |
q |
qi |
θ |
Vi |
Qi |
5.1 |
-1.8 |
271.35 |
4.08 |
4.08 |
90 |
1.2 |
4.89 |
5.2 |
-1.7 |
271.45 |
4.16 |
4.16 |
90 |
2.9 |
12.06 |
4.6 |
-2.8 |
270.35 |
3.69 |
3.70 |
90 |
7.5 |
27.69 |
3.9 |
-4.2 |
268.95 |
3.15 |
3.15 |
90 |
7.5 |
23.60 |
3.9 |
-4.8 |
268.35 |
3.15 |
3.15 |
90 |
8.0 |
25.23 |
3.4 |
-6.4 |
266.75 |
2.77 |
2.77 |
67.5 |
9.4 |
24.01 |
3.2 |
-7.1 |
266.05 |
2.61 |
2.61 |
90 |
2.5 |
6.53 |
3.1 |
-6.9 |
266.25 |
2.53 |
2.53 |
90 |
2.5 |
6.32 |
3.6 |
-5.2 |
267.95 |
2.92 |
2.92 |
90 |
4.4 |
12.83 |
3.4 |
-5.3 |
267.85 |
2.75 |
2.76 |
90 |
6.8 |
18.73 |
3.2 |
-7.1 |
266.05 |
2.61 |
2.61 |
90 |
4.4 |
11.48 |
3 |
-7.9 |
265.25 |
2.45 |
2.45 |
90 |
4.4 |
10.80 |
3.3 |
-6.1 |
267.05 |
2.68 |
2.69 |
90 |
5.3 |
14.21 |
3 |
-7.2 |
265.95 |
2.45 |
2.45 |
67.5 |
3.2 |
7.24 |
3 |
-7.6 |
265.55 |
2.45 |
2.45 |
90 |
2.1 |
5.15 |
3 |
-7.7 |
265.45 |
2.45 |
2.45 |
67.5 |
2.1 |
4.76 |
3.6 |
-5.3 |
267.85 |
2.92 |
2.92 |
68 |
4.4 |
11.90 |
3.2 |
-7.1 |
266.05 |
2.61 |
2.61 |
67.5 |
5.4 |
13.02 |
3.1 |
-6.6 |
266.55 |
2.52 |
2.53 |
90 |
2.8 |
7.07 |
3.5 |
-5.2 |
267.95 |
2.83 |
2.84 |
90 |
2.8 |
7.94 |
As shown in Table 1, vapor transfer amount mean value Q=12.77, temperature-averaging value t=-5.7 ℃.
The quantity of precipitation of this icing process is as shown in table 2.
The quantity of precipitation of table 2 icing process
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
1.4 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
Precipitation adds up to 3.3mm, and totally 9 times, raininess R=3.3/ (9*12)=0.03056 then.
The substitution formula
D=90.108mm then.
The icing extreme value of this process measured ice on the lead of research station heavily is 24600g/m, and icing density is 0.293g/cm
3, being converted into ice thickness is 76mm.The result of calculation of this model is 90.108mm, compares with actual ice thickness, and the ice thickness error of the present invention's prediction is less than 17.6%, and is approaching with actual ice thickness.
Control group
Other wire icing computation models have a lot, and wherein model is the model of being set up by Zhou Shaoyi, Qin Jun etc. relatively preferably.This model is that the associating team of weather center and Electric Power Design Institute composition of personnel releases, be on Kathleen F.Jones model based in conjunction with the actual conditions of China, the model that utilizes a plurality of weather stations data in winter to make up.This model is as follows:
R in the formula---the thickness of the isometrical icing of electric wire, cm;
ρ
i---the density of glaze, get 0.9g/cm3;
ρ
0---the density of aqueous water, get 1.0g/cm3;
P
j---precipitation intensity, mm/hr;
W
j=0.067P
0.846---the aqueous water content in the saturated air, g/m
3
V
j---the wind speed during icing, m/s;
Subscript j---j hour value;
The duration of N---sleet, h.
It is because supposed in the icing process that all cooling raindrop have all formed icing that R does not rely on temperature; It is because supposed that isometrical ice evenly overlays on the electric wire that R does not rely on the diameter of wire; And aqueous water content W represents with precipitation intensity P, is the result by the water droplet conversion, has adopted the V that concerns of water droplet falling speed and precipitation intensity P here
T=4.15P
0.154
According to the meaning of above-mentioned each parameter of model, utilize Erlongshan Mountains to see the icing at ice station and the icing ice thickness that the meteorological element data is calculated the Erlongshan Mountains lead, its process is as follows:
Choose Erlongshan Mountains process 10 to 15 February in 2011, the observed reading of wherein quantity of precipitation, wind speed is required to add up according to above-mentioned model, and bring model into and gather calculating, result of calculation is 4.6mm.Differ bigger with actual conditions.
Because the model in the control group is to utilize the weather station data to determine W
jDesign factor and the summation formula in second fraction coefficient 0.36, and residing position, weather station and electric power transmission line residing position landform and weather difference are bigger, cause coefficient not necessarily to meet the transmission line of electricity actual conditions.This model has only adopted wind speed and two meteorological factors of rainfall amount in addition, therefore is difficult to reflect the influence of the relevant meteorological factor of other icing to icing.
The present invention has adopted the related data of icing circuit, have representative preferably, model has adopted a plurality of meteorological factor modelings such as wind speed, wind direction, quantity of precipitation, temperature, visibility, moisture content, freezing time simultaneously, can react the influence degree of relevant factor pair icing preferably.Compare with control group, the ice thickness and the actual ice thickness of the present invention's prediction are approaching, and error is less, has great practical value.