CN109636133A - Influence the multiple dimensioned variation characteristic research method of the weather environment of line of electric flux road safety - Google Patents

Influence the multiple dimensioned variation characteristic research method of the weather environment of line of electric flux road safety Download PDF

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CN109636133A
CN109636133A CN201811392626.6A CN201811392626A CN109636133A CN 109636133 A CN109636133 A CN 109636133A CN 201811392626 A CN201811392626 A CN 201811392626A CN 109636133 A CN109636133 A CN 109636133A
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line
temperature
precipitation
variation characteristic
year
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Inventor
徐珂航
张亚迪
李伟华
卢忠东
游川
周泓
丛鹏
都亮
陈佟
田旭鹏
曹科
王赞
吴元香
陈晓岩
任志善
仁增卓嘎
吕均
范业斌
周虹春
刘健巧
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
Liaoning Electric Power Research Institute
State Grid Tibet Electric Power Co Ltd
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State Grid Corp of China SGCC
Liaoning Electric Power Research Institute
State Grid Tibet Electric Power Co Ltd
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06Resources, workflows, human or project management, e.g. organising, planning, scheduling or allocating time, human or machine resources; Enterprise planning; Organisational models
    • G06Q10/063Operations research or analysis
    • G06Q10/0639Performance analysis
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06QDATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTING PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06Electricity, gas or water supply

Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of multiple dimensioned variation characteristic research methods of weather environment for influencing line of electric flux road safety, specific steps include: A: using meteorological data, overhead transmission line basic data and the accident record data in weather information database in selection area as foundation, considering that selection area inner region line security is analyzed;B: considering year, month, day variation characteristic in selection area, carries out linear fit, obtains variation tendency using wavelet analysis;C: the evaluation result of combining step A and step B show that the overall evaluation is reported.The present invention provides a kind of multiple dimensioned variation characteristic research method of weather environment for influencing line of electric flux road safety, smoothly completing and it safeguarded to transmit electricity safely after the completion the information with reference value is provided for power transmission engineering.

Description

Influence the multiple dimensioned variation characteristic research method of the weather environment of line of electric flux road safety
Technical field
The present invention relates to line of electric flux road security fields, more particularly to influence the weather environment of line of electric flux road safety Multiple dimensioned variation characteristic research method.
Background technique
With the fast development of economic society, electric power has been widely used for agricultural, industry and human society life Every field, and demand of the mankind to electric power increasingly increases in recent years.The characteristics of power generation is disposably to complete, it is desirable that hair Electricity, power transformation, transmission of electricity, distribution, electricity consumption carry out simultaneously, and links are indivisible, and contacted links among these exactly Power circuit.Power circuit is divided into transmission line of electricity and distribution line.The route of electric energy is conveyed from power plant to power load center And the interconnector between Force system is known as transmission line of electricity, the task of transmission line of electricity is exactly to convey electric energy, and get in touch with each power generation Factory, substation are allowed to paired running, realize power system interconnection.Electric energy is distributed from power load center to each power consumer Route is known as distribution line.Therefore, ultra-high-tension power transmission line is the main artery of power industry, is the important composition portion of electric system Point.
However in recent years, with the anomalous variation of global climate, meteorological natural calamity grows in intensity.And because of construction letter Just, low-cost, the convenient overhead transmission line of repair and maintenance is used widely in China;Since line conductor is erected at bar by it On tower, thus it is chronically exposed to route in natural environment, vulnerable to the invasion of various meteorological conditions such as strong wind, icing, sleet etc., The probability of failure is higher.Power transmission mode used by networking project is exactly the design of overhead transmission line in this time hiding, naked Dew in air, endures Special geographical position locating for the influence of atmospheric conditions, especially Tibet and plateau meteorology condition to the fullest extent, often goes out The weather disasters such as existing strong wind, heavy rain, lightning, low temperature can all generate conductive track and seriously affect, even result in transmission of electricity accident, Today especially higher and higher in the electrified degree of each department, world information quickly grow, each department to electric power according to Bad degree is also higher and higher, thus, the interruption of electric energy supply not only directly influences national defence and industrial and agricultural production, traffic, causes People's lives disorder can even lead to and its serious social disaster in some cases.Especially in Qinghai-xizang Plateau Region, Geographic climate is special, and overhead transmission line is easier to be influenced by meteorological factor.
How, the multiple dimensioned variation characteristic research method for providing a kind of weather environment for influencing line of electric flux road safety is ability The problem of field technique personnel's urgent need to resolve.
Summary of the invention
In view of this, the present invention provides a kind of multiple dimensioned variation characteristics of weather environment for influencing line of electric flux road safety to grind Study carefully method, smoothly completing and safeguard that its transmission of electricity safety provides the information with reference value after the completion for power transmission engineering.
To achieve the goals above, the invention provides the following technical scheme:
The multiple dimensioned variation characteristic research method of the weather environment of line of electric flux road safety is influenced, specific steps include:
A: with meteorological data, overhead transmission line basic data and the accident note in weather information database in selection area Record data are foundation, consider that selection area inner region line security is analyzed;
B: considering year, month, day variation characteristic in selection area, carries out linear fit, show that variation becomes using wavelet analysis Gesture;
C: the evaluation result of combining step A and step B show that the overall evaluation is reported;
The wavelet analysis specific steps include:
Assuming that there is mother wavelet function ψ (t) ∈ L2(R), meetAnd the flexible and time shaft for passing through scale On translation constitute cluster function system:
Wherein, a, b ∈ R, a ≠ 0, ψa,bIt (t) is sub- small echo;A is scale factor, reflects the cycle length of small echo;B is flat Move the factor, the translation on the reaction time;
Further, there is continuous wavelet transform:
In formula, Wf(a, b) is wavelet conversion coefficient;F (t) is a signal or quadractically integrable function;A is flexible scale;b Translation parameters;ForComplex conjugate function;
By the square value of wavelet coefficient in the domain b upper integral, so that it may obtain wavelet variance, i.e., Wavelet variance with scale a change procedure.
Preferably, in the multiple dimensioned variation characteristic research method of the weather environment of above-mentioned influence line of electric flux road safety, Meteorological data described in the step A includes but are not limited to: temperature, precipitation, wind speed.
Preferably, in the multiple dimensioned variation characteristic research method of the weather environment of above-mentioned influence line of electric flux road safety, Accident described in the step A includes but is not limited to: extreme wind speeds, heavy rain.
It can be seen via above technical scheme that compared with prior art, the present disclosure provides a kind of influence line of electric fluxs The multiple dimensioned variation characteristic research method of the weather environment of road safety, smoothly completing and safeguard that its is defeated after the completion for power transmission engineering Electric safety provides the information with reference value.Temperature increases the resistance for increasing route, and active loss increases;And temperature reduction makes Line impedance reduces, and is conducive to improve power quality and economic benefit, but conducting wire can be made to shrink because temperature reduces, and increases aerial The operation stress of route, influences the mechanical performance of conducting wire;Temperature too low simultaneously be easy to cause wire icing, and accumulated ice can lead to electricity Line wave shaft tower tilt and collapse, break, insulator arc-over, communication it is unsmooth, have a power failure cut off the water supply, seriously affecting electric system just Often operation, and heavy losses are caused to social economy.In addition, wind shows the flowing of air, it is of different sizes to overhead line according to wind speed Road influences different.Low velocity wind can cause conducting wire to wave or even wave, and easily cause the whiplash between time conducting wire, may damage insulation and gold Tool.Strong wind carries the wind pressure ratio for increasing route, in fact it could happen that the major accidents such as broken string.Heavy rainfall is fallen because very fast in a short time A large amount of rainwater directly impact wire pole tower such as landslide and cause down bar in addition to being easy should to send out geological disaster various, can also be on ground Gesture lower formed ponding, low-lying place electric power line pole tower root because of precipitation caused by soaking overlong time easily cause Shaft tower inclination, causes down bar when serious.And in city, precipitation causes waterlogging ponding to flood underground substation, and switchyard etc. is set Standby to cause equipment fault, short-circuit or tripping, the heavy rain situation along transmission of electricity of studying is conducive to take the condition of a disaster corresponding effective Measure.
Detailed description of the invention
In order to more clearly explain the embodiment of the invention or the technical proposal in the existing technology, to embodiment or will show below There is attached drawing needed in technical description to be briefly described, it should be apparent that, the accompanying drawings in the following description is only this The embodiment of invention for those of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts, can also basis The attached drawing of offer obtains other attached drawings.
Fig. 1 attached drawing is that the embodiment of the present invention is average adds up precipitation line chart month by month;
Fig. 2 attached drawing is the embodiment of the present invention heavy rain number histogram;
Fig. 3 attached drawing is the embodiment of the present invention average annual precipitation line chart;
Fig. 4 attached drawing is to add up precipitation line chart in the embodiment of the present invention year;
Fig. 5 attached drawing is the small echo distribution map for adding up precipitation in the embodiment of the present invention year;
Fig. 6 attached drawing is the embodiment of the present invention year-round average temperature curve;
Fig. 7 attached drawing is the embodiment of the present invention annual minimum temperature curve graph;
Fig. 8 attached drawing is the embodiment of the present invention annual maximum temperature curve graph;
Fig. 9 attached drawing is to change mean temperature curve graph in the embodiment of the present invention ten days;
Figure 10 attached drawing is that the average annual maximum temperature in eight station of the embodiment of the present invention develops schematic diagram year by year;
Figure 11 attached drawing is that the average annual minimum temperature in eight station of the embodiment of the present invention develops schematic diagram year by year;
Figure 12 attached drawing is that the embodiment of the present invention is respectively stood the differentiation schematic diagram year by year of annual peak;
Figure 13 attached drawing is that the embodiment of the present invention is respectively stood the differentiation schematic diagram year by year of annual minimum;
Figure 14 attached drawing is the small echo distribution map of the average annual maximum temperature of the embodiment of the present invention;
Figure 15 attached drawing is the small echo distribution map of the average annual minimum temperature of the embodiment of the present invention;
Figure 16 attached drawing is flow chart of the invention.
Specific embodiment
Following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention carries out clear, complete Site preparation description, it is clear that described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.It is based on Embodiment in the present invention, it is obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts every other Embodiment shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The embodiment of the invention discloses a kind of multiple dimensioned variation characteristic researchs of weather environment for influencing line of electric flux road safety Method, smoothly completing and safeguard that its transmission of electricity safety provides the information with reference value after the completion for power transmission engineering.
Embodiment:
The data of use be in China Meteorological Data Sharing Network " China national grade surface weather station is substantially meteorological Constitutent day Value Data collection (V3.0) " extracts 8 website 1981-2014,34 years earnings in a day in wherein hiding along networking project Data, 8 representative stations are respectively Mozhugongka, and pool is worked as, Bomi, Baxiu County, ganoderma lucidum, Milin, Zuogong, Chayu.
1, influence of the precipitation monthly variation to line of electric flux road safety:
Using 8 website daily precipitation data, the Climatological Mean Values of each website month by month have been counted, as can be seen from Figure 1 eight A website precipitation time distribution is almost the same in addition to Chayu and Bomi station, and 8 station average precipitation approximations are regarded as near along the line Regional average precipitation, it can be seen that accumulate magnitude the Precipitation in Winter moon close to 0, the average monthly cumulative amount of Summer Rainfall is less than 120mm.Summer (6,7, August) precipitation is apparently higher than other seasons, wherein 7 monthly average, which add up precipitation, reaches maximum, variation For range between 60mm-160mm, second largest value reduces 10mm than July in August, average cumulative precipitation.Baxiu County station precipitation is 8 It is the smallest in standing, largest cumulative precipitation 60mm or so.Bomi station precipitation maximum value appears in June, and this area is compared with other areas Precipitation is more, and one shares 3 precipitation peak values, starts April to occur as soon as first precipitation peak value, second largest value appears in September, it was demonstrated that should The regional Pluvial is partially long, and precipitation is more, more easily causes flood, and summer causes the communication system of power grids equipment near the ground bigger Security risk.Chayu station maximum precipitation appears in April, and accumulative precipitation reaches 120mm, right due to southernmost end along being located in It is influenced caused by power transmission line smaller.The maximum website of precipitation is Mozhugongka, and 7 month to date precipitation are close to 160mm, close in hiding The terminal Sangri County of networking project, if so ground generation precipitation will cause transmission facility and seriously affect.
2, influence of the frequency to line of electric flux road safety occurs for heavy rain:
Usual extreme climate is that transmission facility is caused to damage most important factor, and heavy rainfall is fallen because very fast in a short time A large amount of rainwater directly impact wire pole tower such as landslide and cause down bar in addition to being easy should to send out geological disaster various, can also be on ground Gesture lower formed ponding, low-lying place electric power line pole tower root because of precipitation caused by soaking overlong time easily cause Shaft tower inclination, causes down bar when serious.And in city, precipitation causes waterlogging ponding to flood underground substation, and switchyard etc. is set It is standby to cause equipment fault, short circuit or tripping, so the heavy rain situation along research transmission of electricity is conducive to take the condition of a disaster accordingly Effective measures.
As shown in Fig. 2, the heavy rain number respectively stood -2014 years 1981 6-8 months has been counted, since Tibet belongs to plateau mountainous region Weather, according to previous research, it has been heavy rain rank that average daily precipitation, which reaches 25mm or more, herein using 25mm as threshold value The statistical history heavy rain frequency.6,7, it is generated in August part 34 years in total heavy rain 307 times, it is most wherein to occur heavy rain number July, 8 stations Occur 134 times in total, it is 99 times that July, which takes second place, and June is 73 times, this is consistent with monthly mean rainfall, illustrates that heavy rain is month to date Precipitation has done a large amount of contributions.
What wherein single station heavy rain number was most is Mozhugongka station, totally 64 times, 6,7, the number that August part occurs compared with It is more.Followed by ganoderma lucidum and Milin, respectively 51 and 47 times, least torrential rain days are Baxiu County areas, do not have Rainstorms hair June Raw, July and August have 3 times respectively.Changdu that the networking project is crossed over, ganoderma lucidum and the Shannan Prefecture are referred to as eastern section, middle section and West section, in conjunction with the heavy rain number of monthly mean rainfall and Fig. 2 generation of each department in Fig. 1, it can be found that its west section mean precipitation Amount is maximum, and most easily produces heavy rain, and middle section is taken second place, and eastern section is that precipitation is minimum, heavy rain number also minimum location.So summer West section multi-line power transmission equipment is most susceptible to the July that the influence of precipitation, especially heavy rain take place frequently, and relevant departments more should be in west section Counter-measure is carried out, eastern section is smaller by Rainfall Influence in contrast.
3, influence of the Annual variations of precipitation to line of electric flux road safety:
In addition to significant seasonal variations, there is also apparent Annual variations for precipitation, i.e. the year of drought and flooded year is with respect to normal year It is easier to Extreme Precipitation occur, is easier to influence power grid construction and power equipment.The year border of precipitation along following Main Analysis power grid Variation characteristic.Fig. 3 is to add up precipitation by the average year of 8 stations along power grid, as seen from Figure 3: adding up precipitation year is in wave Dynamic variation tendency, has apparent Annual variations and interdecadal variability, and wherein nineteen ninety-five to 2004 annual precipitations continues higher, most It is higher than long-time average annual value 100mm or more more.And 2005 start, precipitation bust, initially enter period relatively on the low side.Total comes It says, 34 mean annual precipitations are about 580mm, and precipitation year on the high side differs larger with precipitation year on the low side, and 1998 annual precipitations are most, should Year is also that China's summer most area occurs 1 year of Storm Flood Disasters, and it is close that region average year adds up precipitation 720mm, and only 400mm in 2009, the two differ 300mm, show different year, precipitation difference is larger.And it is tired according to year The linear fit trend of meter precipitation can be seen that over nearly 34 years, and precipitation keeps stablizing without obviously increasing or reducing.
According to Fig. 4 it can be seen that the spatial distribution for adding up precipitation in year is extremely uneven, precipitation exists significant between each station Difference.Wherein, the most Bo-Mi District of precipitation in eight stations adds up precipitation year averagely in 900mm or so, and maximum is even up to 1000mm;And the least Baxiu County area of precipitation, mean annual precipitation only have 200mm or so, are the 1/4-1/5 of Bomi.With precipitation Chinese rose variation and heavy rain number variation it is consistent.As a whole, average year precipitation is successively from low to high: Baxiu County, pool are worked as, left Tribute, Mozhugongka, followed by three station of Linzhi, Milin and Chayu, their precipitation and variation tendency is close.Each station precipitation is poor It is different larger, and without obvious region consistency or otherness, this may be related to the orographic condition of Tibet region complexity.Therefore in electricity In net track laying and maintenance process, it should focus on to pay close attention in the ground, that is, route such as Bomi, Linzhi, Milin, west section;In conjunction with Season Distributing Regularity above-mentioned, summer should especially be paid close attention to.
According to the Annual variations feature of rainfall distribution, in the time that each station precipitation differs greatly, abnormal Extreme Precipitation is more Hair, may cause serious influence to power equipment.So the prediction to flood year is just particularly important.Along power grid The periodic characteristic of average annual precipitation can simply estimate whether be easier to Extreme Precipitation occur the year, take precautions against natural calamities to carry out in advance Preparation.It is inquired into below using wavelet analysis.
The wavelet analysis figure of Fig. 5 is obtained using wavelet analysis method it can be seen that eight stations average year adds up drop along power grid Water mainly shows the period of cycle of oscillation and 22 years of 1-4,10-16 or more, wherein on 4 years periods, from Be divided within 1981 to 2014 the big value center of 10 alternate positive and negatives of cloth, illustrate annual precipitation 4 annual period feature this more than ten Year is stabilized, and is only worth center greatly between 1992 to 2004 and slightly weakens and move up.10-16 annual period 2004 with Preceding performance is obvious, showed between 2005-2014 it is weaker, only 2008 there are a numerical value for 1 low value center. It is otherwise noted that 22 years or more periods of change are also to be stable in the presence of between each year.
4, influence of the monthly variation of mean temperature to line of electric flux road safety:
It is similar with precipitation, 8 stations in monthly mean temperature, 34 is calculated, the differentiation month by month (Fig. 6) of mean temperature, You Tuke are obtained Know, each website temperature change is almost the same, and 1 monthly mean temperature is minimum, and about 0 DEG C, 7 monthly mean temperature highests are 16 DEG C or so.Summer Highest two websites of Ji Wendu are Baxiu County and Chayu, but still are below 20 DEG C.Either region is average or single station highest Temperature, numerical value are far from the standard to reach a high temperature, will not constitute a threat to, will not generate because of high temperature excessive to power transmission line Cooling load, therefore summer Tibet region transmission facility is not high to the susceptibility of temperature, summer temp substantially will not set transmission of electricity It is standby to constitute a threat to.
Winter temperature it is minimum be Zuogong, the time mean temperature of continuous four months of the 11-2 month is lower than 0 DEG C, followed by black bamboo Work card, there are three the time mean temperatures of the moon to be lower than 0 DEG C, the two stations are located at the eastern section and west section of route, and low temperature day Gas directly results in freezing disaster, it is possible to cause wire icing, fracture even wire pole tower collapses, thus in the eastern section of route and West section temperature is lower, it is easier to form sleet and snow ice weather, cause bigger security risk to transmission of electricity networked devices.
Referring again to the monthly average curve (Fig. 7) of minimum temperature, In Chayu District is removed, other website mean monthly maximum temperatures are 11 Nearly all it is less than 0 DEG C, especially Mozhugongka and Zuogong the moon-March, minimum temperature is below -10 DEG C in December and January, with Temperature on average coincide.Zuogong minimum temperature since October, until next year 4 it is monthly at 0 DEG C hereinafter, side illustration this area ice The jelly phase is longer, is affected to transmission facility.And ganoderma lucidum is regional, especially using Chayu station as representative, temperature is warmer, sets to transmission of electricity Standby influence is smaller.
Average maximum, which still appears in July, can be seen that for the maximum temperature curve graph (Fig. 8) of each website along the line, Followed by June and August, the average highest temperature are no more than 23 DEG C.The highest temperature appears in Baxiu County station, and July is 26 DEG C, and minimum appears in a left side Tribute, the highest temperature are 21 DEG C.It is overall it can be seen that the every temperature in Zuogong area in conjunction with front mean temperature and minimum temperature monthly average Index be all it is minimum, be easiest to constitute a threat to transmission facility in winter, and regional four stations of ganoderma lucidum are relatively warm, winter temperature Degree is also shorter lower than 0 DEG C of time, freezing disaster least easy to form, and the influence to transmission facility is minimum.And the highest temperature along the line No more than 30 DEG C, transmission facility will not be impacted.Therefore, the influence for temperature to transmission facility should most pay close attention to winter Eastern section and west section.
5, the ten days of mean winter temperature changes the influence to line of electric flux road safety:
Since winter temperature is bigger on transmission facility influence, it is necessary to the temperature near finer understanding winter route Variation, therefore weather ten days change curve (Fig. 9) is done to three monthly mean temperatures of winter -2 months December, as shown, each website exists Late December mean temperature touches the bottom, wherein minimum -6 DEG C of Zuogong, and entire temperature in winter is below -2 DEG C, secondly Temperature it is minimum be Mozhugongka, early Febuary in December-temperature is lower than 0 DEG C, and from bottom out mid-February, and Chayu station temperature is all At 4 DEG C or more, it is higher than mean temperature.Pool is worked as, Baxiu County, Milin, and ganoderma lucidum and Bomi station temperature change and region are averagely relatively. Region mean temperature begins to decline more apparent from mid-December, and when late December drops to 0 DEG C hereinafter, zubzero temperature is maintained to 1 The middle of the month starts to rise again in late January, and temperature rises above 0 DEG C.The maintenance of transmission facility is answered by analyzing us above In late December in this concern point set, this period area along the line mean temperature and the mean temperature of each website all reach 1 year In it is minimum, if add other meteorological elements cooperation, if wind speed be greater than 1m/s, humidity be greater than 85%, then be easy in power transmission line Upper formation rime or glaze, when the heavy limit that icing reaches power transmission line then causes thread breakage of transmitting electricity.
6, the Annual variations feature of temperature
Since there are more serious influences to the construction of power grid and power equipment for abnormal high temperature and low temperature, so connecing down Come us and discusses the variation characteristic of maximum temperature and minimum temperature.Article chooses annual 6,7, the max. daily temperature of August into Row statistical average is as average annual maximum temperature, and equally, the Daily minimum temperature for choosing annual December and next year 1,2 month carries out average meter It can be regarded as average annual minimum temperature.
Based on the algorithm of aforementioned average annual maximum temperature and minimum temperature, the variation characteristic year by year of the two is obtained, it can be seen that Eight stand averagely, and average annual maximum temperature is substantially within the scope of 22 DEG C and 24 DEG C (Figure 10), and minimum temperature is in the range of -7 DEG C to -4 DEG C (Figure 11), wherein extremely low value occurs in temperature in winter in 1983 and 1992, at -7 DEG C hereinafter, 0 degree of temperature below can generate The danger that route freezes builds there are potential threat power network line, needs to pay special attention to.In addition, in lowest temperature and the highest temperature Differentiation year by year show apparent warming stream, wherein minimum temperature increases warm very fast, every year on average with 0.05 DEG C of rate Increase, and maximum temperature heats relatively slowly relatively, only increases over nearly 34 years less than 1 DEG C.The reason of this phenomenon occurs is probed into, it may Closely related with global warming, if warming trend persistently maintains even to aggravate, influence of the low temperature for power equipment will It is gradually weaker, on the contrary the influence of extreme high temperature in summer will highlight further, us is worth to carry out prevention in advance.
Referring again to the distribution situation (Figure 12,13) of each website maximum temperature and minimum temperature, apparent area is equally shown Domain feature unevenly distributed.From the point of view of in detail: maximum temperature each website from high to low successively are as follows: Baxiu County, Chayu, pool are worked as, wave Close, Linzhi, Mozhugongka, Zuogong, wherein the maximum Baxiu County area of maximum temperature, maximum temperature average for many years are 25.58 DEG C, And only 20 DEG C of minimum Zuogong area, the two differ 5 DEG C or more.Referring again to it is each station winter minimum temperature evolving state year by year, Minimum temperature is successively in the sequence of each website from high to low: Chayu, Linzhi, Bomi, Milin, Baxiu County, pool are worked as, Mozhugongka and The regional minimum temperature average for many years of Zuogong, the minimum Zuogong of temperature and Mozhugongka is respectively -11.5 DEG C and -10 DEG C, low temperature Freezing disaster is extremely serious, and followed by pool is worked as, and the higher In Chayu District of mean winter temperature, mean annual temperature 0 DEG C with On, it is corresponding without considering frost problem.Generally speaking, summer and winter, great care is needed along networking project in hiding The ground such as website is different, summer, and Baxiu County, Chayu, pool are worked as need to consider high temperature problem, although not occurring high temperature heat wave at present Phenomenon, but with climate warming, the temperature of Tibet region is gradually increased.And in winter, Zuogong, Mozhugongka and pool are local Area, that is, transmission facility eastern section and west section need to consider the influence of cryogenic freezing disaster, and temperature influences middle section smaller.
By analyzing the mechanical periodicity of temperature, according to the distribution of the small echo of the average annual maximum temperature of Figure 14 it can be seen that average annual The multi-scale period distribution situation of maximum temperature is similar with year accumulative precipitation, there is 4 years or so Annual variations, 12-16 Interdecadal Variations mechanical periodicity feature and 26 years or more mechanical periodicities, but in entire 34 years time spans, Annual variations It is stabilized with interdecadal variability.And it is distributed according to the small echo of the average annual minimum temperature of Figure 15 it can be seen that annual is minimum There are 4-6,8-12, the periods of change of 16-20 for temperature, it is notable that the period of 8-12 is equally in 20th century Start to weaken, the period of 4-6 also weakens after 20th century, moves down, it is therefore seen that the mechanical periodicity of minimum temperature is not so good as highest Temperature variation is stablized, and has the feature for being more difficult prediction.
7, influence of the extreme wind speeds to power circuit
According to above-mentioned analysis, the representative Linzhi of climate characteristic, Zuogong, pool are chosen when three stations, further analyzes it Influence of the extreme wind speeds to power circuit, specific practice is to survey maximum wind velocity data according to website, after correcting, using pole Value I type curve calculates, and obtains the maximum wind velocity that 50 years one meet and finally obtains the design wind of route further according to the wind pressure tabled look-up Speed.The construction of networking project in hiding can be instructed, to cope with the threat of extreme wind speeds.
7.1 Linzhi
Stood 1961~1971 years timing wind speed series (nineteen sixty-eight, which lacks, surveys) according to Linzhi, by its through height and when away from correcting Afterwards, it in addition 1972~2011 Nian Ziji wind speed are serial (totally 50 years data systems), is calculated using extreme I type frequency curve.
According to " power engineering meteorology prospecting technique regulation " DL/T5158-2012 and " loading code for design of building structures " GB50009-2012 regulation carries out statistics calculating to Linzhi station wind speed series using extreme-I probability distribution model, obtains liftoff 10m High 50 years one chance 10min are averaged maximum wind velocity result as VP=2%=25.2m/s.
Since Linzhi weather station is located in intermountain Pingba, surrounding high mountain is surround, and survey station is located at city edge, by landform and people Class activity is affected, and surveyed Wind Data reflects the wind speed of intermountain Pingba substantially, but mostly section is located at high sea to route The landform such as the mountain ridge, air port are pulled out, these areas are influenced by high-level jet stream, and wind speed is noticeably greater than weather station wind speed, and height above sea level is got over High wind speed is bigger.Therefore, statistics wind speed result in weather station uses after need to being corrected, and correction factor is according to landform, the difference of height above sea level 1.10 and 1.20 are respectively adopted, corresponding wind speed amendment achievement see the table below.
1 air rate adjustment outcome table of table
" national fundamental wind pressure distribution map " checks in attached along route from GB50009-2012 " loading code for design of building structures " The 50 years one chance 10m high fundamental wind pressures in nearly Nyingchi Prefecture are 0.35kN/m2, calculate that corresponding design wind speed is 27.5m/s by wind pressure.
Increase along curb line wind speed with altitude increase, and, basic unregulated power, communication meagrely-populated in High aititude mountain area Route passes through, and strong wind disaster investigation data is more deficient.By suffering strong wind to the trees on the house in village along route, hillside It destroys situation to be investigated and analysed, endangers larger, 9 grades of maximum wind power of estimation, corresponding wind speed 20.8 with local battle array strong wind along the line ~24.4m/s.
7.2 Zuogong
The Zuogong area that route is passed through, strong wind show as winter (October~April next year) westerly jet strong wind, are secondly Thunderstorm gale caused by summer (5~September) is influenced by southwest monsoon.Winter westerly jet height is low, and wind speed is big, is to cause local The main reason for area's disaster caused by a windstorm.In addition, plateau daytime is heat source, vigorous convection current leads to high-altitude cold air momentum descending or hot-air Rise along hillside, the loud and sonorous sinuous flow effect of topography, often increases afternoon wind speed, form valley breeze or dust devil in addition.
For statistical analysis using each station many years Wind Data along the line, this is to provide the main foundation of design wind speed.Root According to the actual measurement Wind Data of meteorological station each along route, is counted and calculated using Geng Beier extreme value Ⅰ distribution, Zuogong is calculated The 50 years one chance 10m high 10min in weather station are averaged maximum wind velocity as 23.9m/s.Last basis " loading code for design of building structures " Wind pressure outcome table in GB50009-2012, Zuogong 50 years one is pressed to the wind is converted to standard coefficient of wind pres (1/1600) and local wind Be averaged maximum design wind speed its value of 50 years one chance 10min of liftoff 10m high under pressure coefficient is respectively 21.9m/s and 26.7m/s.
Work as in 7.3 pools
Pool is located in the Tibet Plateau of middle latitude High aititude when station.April October in winter to next year is due to the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin overhead is westerly jet, and ground is that cold anticyclone controls, very cold, dry much wind, low temperature snow short of rain, and humidity is special It is small, therefore claim dry (drought) season or wind season, summer 5~September ground layer is heat low control, and southwest monsoon climbs up Tibet plateau, west Wind torrent north is removed, and Tibet region is controlled by southwest monsoon, rainfall is concentrated very much, more night rain, more thunders from the east to the west from south orientation north Cruelly, more hails, it is with the humid air, therefore claim rainy season or wet (profit) season.Its correction wind achievement is as follows:
2 design wind speed of table adjusts achievement
It is damp when weather station 50 years one chance wind pressure values in weather station are 0.30kN/m to check that each city draft gauge in the whole nation obtains2.Into And it extrapolates the liftoff 10m high 50a mono- under standard coefficient of wind pres (1/1600) and local coefficient of wind pres and meets the 10min maximum that is averaged and set Wind speed is counted, achievement see the table below.
3 fundamental wind pressure of table calculates design wind speed outcome table
According to field investigation, strong wind analyzes the destruction of local construction of structures and strong wind disaster scenarios it, along the line with local battle array Property strong wind harm it is larger, estimate instantaneous maximum wind power up to 9~10 grades, corresponding 20.8~28.4m/s of wind speed.
By it is above we to precipitation and temperature and wind field climatic analysis along in hiding, we are it can be concluded that following knot By:
(1) precipitation monthly variation Western Section average precipitation is maximum, and most easily produces heavy rain, and middle section is taken second place, and eastern section is drop Least amount of water, heavy rain number also minimum location.So summer west section multi-line power transmission equipment is most susceptible to the influence of precipitation.Nian Ji Adding up precipitation in variation is in fluctuating change trend, shows apparent Annual variations and interdecadal variability, adds up precipitation in year Spatial distribution it is extremely uneven, there are significant differences for precipitation between each station.
(2) add up the cycle of oscillation that precipitation mainly shows 1-4,10-16 eight stations average year along power grid, with And 22 years or more periods.
(3) mean temperature and minimum temperature monthly average, summer and winter are combined, is needed especially along networking project in hiding The ground such as the website paid attention to is different, summer, and Baxiu County, Chayu, pool are worked as need to consider high temperature problem, although not occurring high temperature at present The phenomenon that heat wave, but with climate warming, the temperature of Tibet region is gradually increased.And in winter, Zuogong, Mozhugongka and Pool influences middle section smaller when the influence that area is that transmission facility eastern section and west section need to consider cryogenic freezing disaster, temperature.
(4) the multi-scale period distribution situation of average annual maximum temperature is similar with year accumulative precipitation, there is 4 years or so years Border variation, the mechanical periodicity of the Interdecadal Variations mechanical periodicity feature of 12-16 and 26 years or more, but it is long in the entire 34 years time On degree, Annual variations and interdecadal variability are stabilized.
(5) with Linzhi, Zuogong, pool when discussing influence of the extreme wind speeds to electric wire for representative station, using extreme value type I curve meter It calculates 50a mono- and meets maximum wind velocity, be as a result 27.5m/ respectively further according to correcting to obtain electric wire maximum design wind speed in ground coefficient of wind pres S, 26.7m/s and 27.1m/s.
Each embodiment in this specification is described in a progressive manner, the highlights of each of the examples are with other The difference of embodiment, the same or similar parts in each embodiment may refer to each other.For device disclosed in embodiment For, since it is corresponded to the methods disclosed in the examples, so being described relatively simple, related place is said referring to method part It is bright.
The foregoing description of the disclosed embodiments enables those skilled in the art to implement or use the present invention. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, as defined herein General Principle can be realized in other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the present invention.Therefore, of the invention It is not intended to be limited to the embodiments shown herein, and is to fit to and the principles and novel features disclosed herein phase one The widest scope of cause.

Claims (3)

1. influencing the multiple dimensioned variation characteristic research method of the weather environment of line of electric flux road safety, which is characterized in that specific steps Include:
A: number is recorded with meteorological data, overhead transmission line basic data and the accident in weather information database in selection area According to for foundation, considering that selection area inner region line security is analyzed;
B: considering year, month, day variation characteristic in selection area, carries out linear fit, obtains variation tendency using wavelet analysis;
C: the evaluation result of combining step A and step B show that the overall evaluation is reported;
The wavelet analysis specific steps include:
Assuming that there is mother wavelet function ψ (t) ∈ L2(R), meetAnd it is flat on the flexible and time shaft for passing through scale It moves and constitutes cluster function system:
Wherein, a, b ∈ R, a ≠ 0, ψa,bIt (t) is sub- small echo;A is scale factor, reflects the cycle length of small echo;B be translation because Son, the translation on the reaction time;
Further, there is continuous wavelet transform:
In formula, Wf(a, b) is wavelet conversion coefficient;F (t) is a signal or quadractically integrable function;A is flexible scale;B translation Parameter;ForComplex conjugate function;
By the square value of wavelet coefficient in the domain b upper integral, so that it may obtain wavelet variance, i.e.,It is small Wave variance with scale a change procedure.
2. the multiple dimensioned variation characteristic research method of the weather environment according to claim 1 for influencing line of electric flux road safety, It is characterized in that, meteorological data described in the step A includes but are not limited to: temperature, precipitation, wind speed.
3. the multiple dimensioned variation characteristic research method of the weather environment according to claim 1 for influencing line of electric flux road safety, It is characterized in that, accident described in the step A includes but is not limited to: extreme wind speeds, heavy rain.
CN201811392626.6A 2018-11-21 2018-11-21 Influence the multiple dimensioned variation characteristic research method of the weather environment of line of electric flux road safety Pending CN109636133A (en)

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Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN110339872A (en) * 2019-06-24 2019-10-18 国家电网有限公司 A kind of altitude environment simulator stand

Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN110339872A (en) * 2019-06-24 2019-10-18 国家电网有限公司 A kind of altitude environment simulator stand

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