CN101630307A - Probability calculating method for electric icing, wire breaking and tower falling - Google Patents

Probability calculating method for electric icing, wire breaking and tower falling Download PDF

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Publication number
CN101630307A
CN101630307A CN200910044144A CN200910044144A CN101630307A CN 101630307 A CN101630307 A CN 101630307A CN 200910044144 A CN200910044144 A CN 200910044144A CN 200910044144 A CN200910044144 A CN 200910044144A CN 101630307 A CN101630307 A CN 101630307A
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electric
following formula
extreme value
value distribution
icing
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杨洪明
张新华
徐文军
王媛媛
赖明勇
张永熙
杨洪朝
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Changsha University of Science and Technology
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Changsha University of Science and Technology
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Abstract

The invention discloses a probability calculating method for an electric icing, wire breaking, and tower falling, comprising following steps: the generalized extreme values of ice rain amount and wind speed are put forward according to the real time data of ice rain amount and wind speed; icing thickness can be calculated by abstracting data from the distribution of the generalized extreme values of ice rain amount and wind speed; the ice load and the total load of power lines, and the ice load and the total load of an electric steel tower can be figured out; and finally, the probability of the electric icing, wire breaking and tower falling can be figured out. The method takes the influence of ice rain and real-time wind speed on the electric icing and wire breaking surge tan into account, and calculates the probability of electric icing, wire breaking and tower falling in the way of abstracting data from the distribution of the generalized extreme values, and has the characteristics of high precision and strong real time. Thus, the technical problems of electric wire breaking and tower falling caused by the low temperature freezing disasters of rain and snow can be completely solved.

Description

The method for calculating probability of electric icing, wire breaking and tower falling
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of method for calculating probability of electric icing, wire breaking and tower falling, be particularly suitable for analyzing and calculating the probability of happening of the wire breaking and tower falling accident that electric icing caused under the low-temperature freezing rain and snow disaster.
Background technology
Under low temperature sleet freezing weather, electric icing has caused for the safe operation of many transmission lines of electricity all over the world and seriously influences.Serious wire breaking and tower falling accident all once took place because of icing in states such as the U.S., Russia, France, Britain, Finland, Iceland and Japan.Be subjected to the acting in conjunction of strong warm and cold air, and the influence of special physical features, China forms the consecutive low temperature freezing weather easily, thereby causes electric power ice damage accident.Diastrous weathers such as during year February in Dec, 2004 to 2005, the appearance of southern some areas is freezing, glaze, severe snow, transmission line of electricity ice sudden strain of a muscle tripping operation, line of electric force are waved, the wire breaking and tower falling accident frequently takes place.Particularly at the beginning of 2008, low temperature, sleet, freezing disaster on a large scale take place in southern area of China, a large amount of line of electric force and electric power tower are too thick because of icing, can't bear the heavy load and rupture and collapse, cause 17 provinces and regions the tripping operation power outage to occur, some areas electric power system paralysis, thus great economic loss caused.
In the face of the wire breaking and tower falling accident that icing causes, domestic and international research is primarily aimed at known meteorological condition prediction ice covering thickness at present; Line of electric force ice-melt measure is proposed; Under given loading condition, analyze the mechanical characteristic of line of electric force and electric power tower.Fall the probability calculation problem of tower for the caused electric power off line of icing, does not still have the report of being correlated with both at home and abroad.
Summary of the invention
Fall the technical barrier of probability calculation of tower for solving, realize the casualty loss control of electric system, the invention provides a kind of method for calculating probability of electric icing, wire breaking and tower falling by the caused electric power off line of icing, have calculate reliable, the characteristics that accuracy is high.
The technical scheme that the present invention solves the problems of the technologies described above may further comprise the steps:
1) real time data of sleet amount P is carried out the The extreme value distribution match, structure sleet amount generalized extreme value distribution F (P) is:
F ( P ) = exp { - [ 1 + ξ 1 σ 1 ( P - u 1 ) ] - 1 / ξ 1 }
U in the following formula 1Be the location parameter of sleet amount generalized extreme value distribution, σ 1Be the scale parameter of sleet amount generalized extreme value distribution, ξ 1Form parameter for sleet amount generalized extreme value distribution;
2) real time data of wind speed V is carried out the The extreme value distribution match, structure wind speed generalized extreme value distribution F (V) is:
F ( V ) = exp { - [ 1 + ξ 2 σ 2 ( V - u 2 ) ] - 1 / ξ 2 }
U in the following formula 2Be the location parameter of wind speed generalized extreme value distribution, σ 2Be the scale parameter of wind speed generalized extreme value distribution, ξ 2Form parameter for the wind speed generalized extreme value distribution;
3) from sleet amount generalized extreme value distribution, extract sleet amount data, from the wind speed generalized extreme value distribution, extract an air speed data;
4) utilize following formula to calculate ice covering thickness R:
R = ρ w P ρ i π [ 1 + ( V / V d ) 2 ] 1 / 2
ρ in the following formula wBe water-mass density, ρ iBe ice concentration, V dBe the raindrop falling speed;
5) utilize following formula to calculate line of electric force ice load T 1:
T 1 = ρ i π 576 [ ( D + 2 R ) 2 - D 2 ] L
D is the line of electric force diameter in the following formula, and L is a power line length;
6) utilize following formula to calculate line of electric force total load (TL) H L:
H L = T 1 + T G = T 1 + 1 4 π D 2 L ρ l g
T in the following formula GBe line of electric force deadweight, ρ lBe the mass density of line of electric force, g is a gravity constant;
7) utilize following formula to calculate electric power tower ice load T 2:
T 2＝0.6Rα hγA×10 -3
α h is that the height of ice covering thickness increases progressively coefficient in the following formula, and γ is the severe of icing, and A is the total surface area of electric power tower;
8) utilize following formula to calculate electric power tower total load (TL) H T:
H T＝T 2+ΔH L＝T 2+|H L1-H L2|
Δ H in the following formula LBe the unbalanced load of electric power tower both sides line of electric force, H L1Be electric power tower one side line of electric force total load (TL), H L2Be electric power tower opposite side line of electric force total load (TL);
9) repeating step 3)-8) N time, obtain N line of electric force total load (TL) and N electric power tower total load (TL);
10) utilize following formula to calculate the probability of electric icing, wire breaking:
P ( H L > μ L ) = N 1 N
μ in the following formula LBe the peak load that line of electric force can bear, N 1For the line of electric force total load (TL) greater than μ LNumber;
11) utilize following formula to calculate electric icing and fall the probability of tower:
P ( H T > μ T ) = N 2 N
μ in the following formula TBe the peak load that electric power tower bore, N 2For the electric power tower total load (TL) greater than μ TNumber;
Above-mentioned steps 1) the scale parameter σ of sleet amount generalized extreme value distribution in 1Scope be 28.25～40.51, the form parameter ξ of sleet amount generalized extreme value distribution 1Scope be 0.48～0.89.
Above-mentioned steps 2) the scale parameter σ of wind speed generalized extreme value distribution in 2Scope be 2.57～4.68, the form parameter ξ of wind speed generalized extreme value distribution 2Scope be 0.08～0.36.
The scope of N is N 〉=10000 in the described step 9).
Technique effect of the present invention is: consider the influence to electric icing, wire breaking and tower falling of real-time sleet amount and real-time wind speed, difference extracted data from sleet amount generalized extreme value distribution and wind speed generalized extreme value distribution, the probability of calculating electric icing, wire breaking and tower falling.The present invention provides technical support for the contingency management and the intervention schedule of electric system under the low-temperature freezing rain and snow disaster, to reduce the power failure loss that icing was caused.The present invention has the high and real-time characteristics of measuring and calculating degree of accuracy, thoroughly solved under the low-temperature freezing rain and snow disaster by the caused electric power off line of icing and fallen the technical barrier of probability calculation of tower.
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing the present invention is made and to further specify.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is the transmission line of electricity synoptic diagram.
Embodiment
Referring to Fig. 1, Fig. 1 is a 220kV transmission line of electricity synoptic diagram, is made up of L1, L2, L3, L4, five grades of line of electric force of L5 and P1, P2, P3, P4, P5, P6 six basic electric power towers.Collect the real-time sleet amount and each 40 of real-time air speed datas of every grade of line of electric force and every basic electric power tower position, draw the generalized extreme value distribution function of real-time sleet amount and real-time wind speed by the generalized extreme value distribution match.
Utilize Matlab7.6 from the generalized extreme value distribution F (P) of sleet amount, to extract sleet amount data, from the generalized extreme value distribution F (V) of wind speed, extract an air speed data.The sampling statement of sleet amount is: P=random (' gev ', ξ 1, σ 1, u 1); The sampling statement of wind speed is respectively: V=random (' gev ', ξ 2, σ 2, u 2).Go out ice covering thickness R by the data computation that extracts, obtain line of electric force ice load and electric power tower ice load then, calculate the deadweight T of line of electric force by the deadweight expression formula of line of electric force G, calculate line of electric force total load (TL) H subsequently LWith electric power tower total load (TL) H T
Repeat above-mentioned implementation process 10000 times, obtain 10000 line of electric force total load (TL)s and 10000 electric power tower total load (TL)s.Statistics line of electric force total load (TL) is greater than μ LNumber N 1, and calculate N 1Shared ratio in the number 10000 of line of electric force total load (TL) is the probability of electric icing, wire breaking, and result of calculation is listed in table 1.Statistics electric power tower total load (TL) is greater than μ TNumber N 2, and calculate N 2Shared ratio in the number 10000 of electric power tower total load (TL) is electric icing and falls the probability of tower, and result of calculation is listed in table 2.
Table 1
The line of electric force numbering ??L1 ??L2 ??L3 ??L?4 ??L5
The probability of electric icing, wire breaking ??32.341％ ??32.879％ ??33.256％ ??33.574％ ??33.928％
Table 2
The electric power tower numbering ??P1 ??P2 ??P3 ??P4 ??P5
Electric icing falls the probability of tower ??10.142％ ??10.325％ ??11.557％ ??12.331％ ??12.694％
As can be seen, this method for calculating probability can effectively calculate the probability of electric icing, wire breaking and tower falling, is highly suitable for the probability calculation of electric icing, wire breaking and tower falling under the low-temperature freezing rain and snow disaster from table 1, table 2.

Claims (4)

1, a kind of method for calculating probability of electric icing, wire breaking and tower falling has following steps:
1) real time data of sleet amount P is carried out the The extreme value distribution match, structure sleet amount generalized extreme value distribution F (P) is:
F ( P ) = exp { - [ 1 + ξ 1 σ 1 ( P - u 1 ) ] - 1 / ξ 1 }
U in the following formula 1Be the location parameter of sleet amount generalized extreme value distribution, σ 1Be the scale parameter of sleet amount generalized extreme value distribution, ξ 1Form parameter for sleet amount generalized extreme value distribution;
2) real time data of wind speed V is carried out the The extreme value distribution match, structure wind speed generalized extreme value distribution F (V) is:
F ( V ) = exp { - [ 1 + ξ 2 σ 2 ( V - u 2 ) ] - 1 / ξ 2 }
U in the following formula 2Be the location parameter of wind speed generalized extreme value distribution, σ 2Be the scale parameter of wind speed generalized extreme value distribution, ξ 2Form parameter for the wind speed generalized extreme value distribution;
3) from sleet amount generalized extreme value distribution, extract sleet amount data, from the wind speed generalized extreme value distribution, extract an air speed data;
4) utilize following formula to calculate ice covering thickness R:
R = ρ w P ρ i π [ 1 + ( V / V d ) 2 ] 1 / 2
ρ in the following formula wBe the density of water, ρ iBe the density of ice, V dBe the raindrop falling speed;
5) utilize following formula to calculate line of electric force ice load T 1:
T 1 = ρ i π 576 [ ( D + 2 R ) 2 - D 2 ] L
D is the line of electric force diameter in the following formula, and L is a power line length;
6) utilize following formula to calculate line of electric force total load (TL) H L:
H L = T 1 + T G = T 1 + 1 4 π D 2 L ρ l g
T in the following formula GBe line of electric force deadweight, ρ lBe the density of line of electric force, g is a gravity constant;
7) utilize following formula to calculate electric power tower ice load T 2:
T 2＝0.6Rα hγA×10 -3
α in the following formula hFor the height of ice covering thickness increases progressively coefficient, γ is the severe of icing, and A is the total surface area of electric power tower;
8) utilize following formula to calculate electric power tower total load (TL) H T:
H T＝T 2+ΔH L＝T 2+|H L1-H L2|
Δ H in the following formula LBe the unbalanced load of electric power tower both sides line of electric force, H L1Be electric power tower one side line of electric force total load (TL), H L2Be electric power tower opposite side line of electric force total load (TL);
9) repeating step 3)-8) N time, obtain N line of electric force total load (TL) and N electric power tower total load (TL);
10) utilize following formula to calculate the probability of electric icing, wire breaking:
P ( H L > μ L ) = N 1 N
μ in the following formula LBe the peak load that line of electric force can bear, N 1For the line of electric force total load (TL) greater than μ LNumber;
11) utilize following formula to calculate electric icing and fall the probability of tower:
P ( H T > μ T ) = N 2 N
μ in the following formula TBe the peak load that electric power tower bore, N 2For the electric power tower total load (TL) greater than μ TNumber.
2, the method for calculating probability of electric icing, wire breaking and tower falling according to claim 1 is characterized in that: the scale parameter σ of sleet amount generalized extreme value distribution in the described step 1) 1Scope be 28.25～40.51, the form parameter ξ of sleet amount generalized extreme value distribution 1Scope be 0.48～0.89.
3, the method for calculating probability of electric icing, wire breaking and tower falling according to claim 1 is characterized in that: the scale parameter σ of wind speed generalized extreme value distribution described step 2) 2Scope be 2.57～4.68, the form parameter ξ of wind speed generalized extreme value distribution 2Scope be 0.08～0.36.
4, the method for calculating probability of electric icing, wire breaking and tower falling according to claim 1 is characterized in that: the scope of N is N 〉=10000 in the described step 9).
CN200910044144A 2009-08-18 2009-08-18 Probability calculating method for electric icing, wire breaking and tower falling Pending CN101630307A (en)

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Cited By (4)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN102629294A (en) * 2011-12-31 2012-08-08 国网电力科学研究院 Probability evaluation method of failure caused by typhoon to power transmission line
CN102721986A (en) * 2012-06-01 2012-10-10 湖南省电力公司科学研究院 Power grid ice coating long-term forecasting method on basis of subtropical anticyclone factor
CN102968554A (en) * 2012-11-01 2013-03-13 武汉大学 Tower pole icing disaster risk prediction method based on safety margin
CN117213696A (en) * 2023-11-07 2023-12-12 南京易信同控制设备科技有限公司 Multichannel pressure scanning valve based on pressure sensitive core and pressure detection method thereof

Cited By (7)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN102629294A (en) * 2011-12-31 2012-08-08 国网电力科学研究院 Probability evaluation method of failure caused by typhoon to power transmission line
CN102721986A (en) * 2012-06-01 2012-10-10 湖南省电力公司科学研究院 Power grid ice coating long-term forecasting method on basis of subtropical anticyclone factor
CN102721986B (en) * 2012-06-01 2014-03-12 湖南省电力公司科学研究院 Power grid ice coating long-term forecasting method on basis of subtropical anticyclone factor
CN102968554A (en) * 2012-11-01 2013-03-13 武汉大学 Tower pole icing disaster risk prediction method based on safety margin
CN102968554B (en) * 2012-11-01 2015-07-15 武汉大学 Tower pole icing disaster risk prediction method based on safety margin
CN117213696A (en) * 2023-11-07 2023-12-12 南京易信同控制设备科技有限公司 Multichannel pressure scanning valve based on pressure sensitive core and pressure detection method thereof
CN117213696B (en) * 2023-11-07 2024-01-30 南京易信同控制设备科技有限公司 Multichannel pressure scanning valve based on pressure sensitive core and pressure detection method thereof

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