CN102096889A - Nuclear hazard forecasting and alarming platform and method based on GIS (Geographic Information System) - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a nuclear hazard forecasting and alarming platform and method based on a GIS (Geographic Information System), belonging to the field of hazard control. The nuclear hazard forecasting and alarming method comprises the following steps of: 1.obtaining forecasting results of a wind field and a turbulence flux; 2. carrying out proliferation simulation on a nuclear hazard; 3. obtaining hazard depth, withdrawing depth, iodine taking depth, hazard area, withdrawing area, iodine taking area, hazard start time and hazard duration time of a nuclear accident; 4. judging whether the hazard depth of the nuclear accident in a set proliferation simulation region is figured out, if the hazard depth is figured out, ending the method, and if the hazard depth is not figured out, returning to the step 2; and 5. forecasting and alarming the nuclear hazard based on the GIS and issuing online in real time. The invention provides a data support for dealing with nuclear crisis, provides a scientific basis for rapidly dealing with the nuclear crisis, and scientifically evaluating the result of the nuclear hazard, thereby guiding the public to rapidly take correct safeguard measures after the public are attacked, eliminating psychological pressure and unnecessary worry and guaranteeing the social stability and the everyday routines.

Description

A kind of nuclear risk prediction early warning platform and method based on generalized information system

Technical field

The present invention relates to a kind of nuclear risk prediction early warning platform and method, belong to harm control field based on generalized information system.

Background technology

Since Chernobyl nuclear accident, the disastrous of nuclear accident laid deep branding to common people.Current, the world has no peace and tranquility, and nuclear threat still exists, and especially repeatedly causes the crisis over Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program that common people pay close attention to, and again and again nuclear threat is brought into schedule, and China's national security and people ' s health have been constituted potential harm.In a single day nuclear facilities is attacked, and will cause serious consequence.How the nuclear facilities incident of meeting with attack being carried out hazard prediction precaution is to reduce the key that nuclear facilities is met with attack and endangered and reduce causality loss.Therefore, meet with attack at nuclear facilities that to carry out systematic research be very necessary in the prediction early warning.

The prior art that the present invention relates to has: MM5; RAMS.

MM5 (Mesoscale Model 5, mesoscale model) is the 5th generation mesoscale weather forecast pattern of developing jointly by American National atmospheric research center and Pennsylvania State University, ability with multinest ability, non-static(al) dynamic mode and four-dimensional assimilate, and can on computer platform, move, can be widely used in atmospheric science research, be particularly suitable for simulating or forecasting the general circulation of mesoscale and regional scale.

RAMS (Region Atmosphere Model System, regional atmospheric pattern) is a three-dimensional, nonfluid static(al), compressible region atmospherical model.The dynamical frame of pattern is non-hydrostatic, original equation mesoscale model, this pattern is to be grown up by nineteen seventies Cotton mesoscale power system that proposes and mesoscale and the land face trait model that microphysical processes pattern and Pielke develop, and has multi-usage, multi-functional characteristics.At present, the object that the RAMS pattern can be simulated comprises on wind spout, thunderstorm, cumulus, the non-homogeneous face of land mesoscale phenomenons such as mesoscale air motion under eddy current, non-homogeneous underlying surface ground atmosphere interaction and power and heating power force in the convective boundary layer, even the turbulent flow in the wind-tunnel and the small scale around the buildings stream phenomenon, and can select the simulation tool of RAMS as city local yardstick atmospheric environment sports ground for use.

Summary of the invention

The objective of the invention is to propose a kind of nuclear risk prediction early warning platform and method based on generalized information system, can be according to the nuclear risk consequence is made quantitative evaluation, the figure of harm consequence quasi real time is provided, and the consequence of scientific evaluation nuclear risk is taked correct safeguard procedures rapidly after instructing the public to meet with attack.

The objective of the invention is to be achieved through the following technical solutions.

A kind of nuclear risk prediction method for early warning of the present invention based on generalized information system, its step is as follows:

The forecast result of step 1, acquisition wind field and amount of turbulence.

Step 2, obtain in step 1 on forecast result's the basis of wind field and amount of turbulence nuclear risk to be carried out diffusion simulations.Its concrete operations step is as follows:

The 1st step: with the accident spot is the center, and the scope in diffusion simulations zone is set, and by the data transformation engine module this longitude and latitude is converted to corresponding planimetric rectangular coordinates in the diffusion simulations zone;

The 2nd step: power, the type of reactor, the hidden situation of personnel, reactor core release characteristics parameter that accident is set;

The 3rd step: the wind field and the amount of turbulence that obtain in the invocation step one, calculate the size of source strength, utilize random walk mode computation radioactivity The smoke-plume spreading process then, call the Rapid Dose Calculation pattern, calculate the plume external exposure respectively, suck internal radiation, superficial deposit external exposure, draw heavy water reactor or light-water reactor nucleic hazard conditions personnel.

Step 3, obtain nuclear accident the harm depth, withdraw depth, clothes iodine depth, hazard area, withdraw area, clothes iodine area, harm start time and harm duration.

The concrete grammar that obtains the harm depth in the described step 3 is as follows:

The 1st step: grid L * M that the diffusion zoning is set;

The 2nd step: initial resolution Δ x is set, and then the area in primary simulation zone is S ₀=L Δ x * M Δ x, m ²

The 3rd step: the dosage threshold value D of set-up and calculated harm depth _Cov

The 4th step: use the NDM pattern and spread calculating, result of calculation be d (i, j), wherein i=1,2 ..., L, j=1,2 ..., M, i.e. mean dose value in the movable height of ground staff;

The 5th step: if d (1, j) 〉=D _CovOr d (L, j) 〉=D _CovOr d (i, 1) 〉=D _CovOr d (i, M) 〉=D _Cov, make a=a+1, then Δ x=Δ x2 ^a, returned for the 4th step;

The 6th step: if satisfy simultaneously d (1, j)＜D _Cov, d (L, j)＜D _Cov, d (i, 1)＜D _CovAnd d (i, M)＜D _Cov, then think to calculate the harm depth; If d (i, j) 〉=D _CovAnd d (i+1, j)＜D _CovOr d (i-1, j)＜D _CovOr d (i, j+1)＜D _CovOr d (i, j-1)＜D _CovMake corresponding horizontal ordinate point I (n)=i+1, J (n)=j or I (n)=i-1, J (n)=j or I (n)=i, J (n)=j+1 or I (n)=i, J (n)=j-1, wherein n=1,2 ..., N, N is a threshold boundaries point number, calculates the distance L between any two frontier points that do not overlap _k, k=1,2 ..., K, $K=C_N^2,$ Then harm (hidden) depth is L _Cov=Δ xmax[L ₁, L ₂..., L _K].

In like manner, obtain withdrawing depth L _EvaKimonos iodine depth L _Iod

The concrete grammar that obtains hazard area in the described step 3 is as follows:

If initial value I _Scov=0, if d (i, j) 〉=D _Cov, make I _Scov=I _Scov+ 1, then hidden area is

S _cov＝I _scovΔx ²

In like manner can obtain to withdraw area S _EvaKimonos iodine area S _Iod

If the density of population is that (i j), then needs hidden number to be to ρ in the zoning

$N_{\mathrm{cov}}=\mathrm{int}[\∫\∫d(x,y){|}_{d(x,y)\≥D_{\mathrm{cov}}}\mathrm{\ρ}(x,y)\mathrm{dxdy}]$

Or $N_{\mathrm{cov}}=\mathrm{int}\left[\underset{i=1}{\overset{L}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}\underset{j=1}{\overset{M}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}d(i,j){|}_{d(i,j)\≥D_{\mathrm{cov}}}\mathrm{\ρ}(i,j)\right]$

In like manner, can obtain and to withdraw number N _EvaKimonos iodine number N _Iod

It is as follows to obtain the concrete grammar of harm time in the described step 3:

After harm was defined as accident the start time and takes place, the dosage that human body received reached the time when needing hidden threshold value, promptly

$T_{\mathrm{harm}}(i,j)=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}{t}_0+t(i,j)& d(i,j)\≥D_{\mathrm{cov}}\\ 0& \mathrm{others}\end{array}\right.$

Wherein, t ₀Be the accident time of origin; After the harm duration was meant and comes to harm, the radioactivity plume left the time that this zone also needs, promptly

$T_{\mathrm{duration}}(i,j)=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}t(i,j){|}_{d(i,j)>0}-T_{\mathrm{harm}}(i,j)& T_{\mathrm{harm}}(i,j)>0\\ 0& \mathrm{others}\end{array}\right.$

Then endangering the concluding time is

$T_{\mathrm{unmask}}(i,j)=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}t(i,j){|}_{d(i,j)>0}& T_{\mathrm{harm}}(i,j)>0\\ 0& \mathrm{others}\end{array}\right.$

Be the theoretical time of removing protection.

Step 4, judge whether set diffusion simulations zone calculates the harm depth of nuclear accident: judge by the nuclear risk index whether set diffusion simulations zone calculates the harm depth of nuclear accident, if calculated the harm depth, finish this method; If do not calculate the harm depth, return step 2.

Described method also comprises step 5, issues based on early warning of GIS nuclear risk and real-time online: with the last d (i that calculates in the step 3, j) be converted to data with spatial information, it is the GIS vector data, with hidden zone, withdraw zone, clothes iodine zone and harm start time danger, evil duration and show, showing simultaneously needs hidden, as to withdraw kimonos iodine number and corresponding area, carries out the real-time online issue by computer network.

Described a kind of nuclear risk prediction early warning platform based on generalized information system comprises: meteorological field numerical forecasting module, global yardstick ambient field module, GIS module, the meticulous forecast module of meteorological field, diffusion simulations module, intense source mode module, nuclear risk index system data module, nuclear facilities meet with attack accident harm prediction module, data transformation engine; Meteorological field numerical forecasting module is connected with global yardstick ambient field module, GIS module, meticulous meteorological field forecast module respectively; Meticulous meteorological field forecast module is connected with meteorological field numerical forecasting module, GIS module, diffusion simulations module respectively; The diffusion simulations module is connected with intense source mode module, nuclear risk index system data module, GIS module, data transformation engine module, the nuclear facilities accident harm prediction module of meeting with attack respectively; The nuclear facilities accident harm prediction module of meeting with attack is connected with data transformation engine, Rapid Dose Calculation pattern, nuclear risk index system.

Meteorological field numerical forecasting module is obtained data as initial field from global yardstick ambient field module, obtain GIS data in the target simulation zone as boundary condition from the GIS module then, by the rolling parallel computation, the meteorological field of forecast target area, and a meteorological field of the target area that obtains passes to meticulous meteorological field forecast module; Meticulous meteorological field forecast module is obtained GIS data in the target area from the GIS module, carries out parallel computation, forecasts meticulous meteorological field, draws the forecast result of the needed wind field of diffusion simulations, amount of turbulence; The diffusion simulations module obtains corresponding planimetric rectangular coordinates in the diffusion simulations zone by the data transformation engine module; Obtain the wind field and the amount of turbulence of target area from meticulous forecast module, call the size of source strength mode computation source strength, use random walk mode computation radioactivity The smoke-plume spreading process, calculate hazard conditions and with this data transfer to the nuclear facilities accident harm prediction module of meeting with attack; Nuclear facilities meet with attack accident harm prediction module prediction nuclear accident the harm depth, withdraw depth, clothes iodine depth, hazard area, withdraw area, clothes iodine area, harm start time and harm duration.

Described platform also comprises based on early warning of generalized information system nuclear risk and real-time online release module, is connected with data transformation engine, and the data that data transformation engine passes over are carried out real-time online issue early warning information.

Beneficial effect

1. the present invention according to the nuclear risk consequence is made quantitative evaluation, provides the figure of harm consequence quasi real time for the crisis of reply nuclear provides the data support, for the crisis of reply nuclear provides scientific basis rapidly;

2. instruct the scene of the accident personnel and the public correctly to protect, nuclear risk longer duration, coverage are wide, and not only the physiology to people works the mischief, and also can cause negative effect to psychology simultaneously.The consequence of scientific evaluation nuclear risk is taked correct safeguard procedures rapidly after can instructing the public to meet with attack, and eliminates psychological pressure and unnecessary worry, keeps social stability and normal life order, reduces unnecessary economic loss.

Description of drawings

Fig. 1 is the schematic flow sheet of specific embodiment of the invention example.

Embodiment

The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with drawings and Examples.

The schematic flow sheet of the inventive method as shown in Figure 1, the concrete operations step is as follows:

The forecast result of step 1, acquisition wind field and amount of turbulence.

At first, use the meteorological field of mesoscale model MM5 forecast target area.

Use the initial field of the ambient field T213 of global yardstick as MM5, nested by multi-layer net, import or choose the coordinate in target simulation zone, GIS data in the automatic invocation target simulated domain of MM5 system are as boundary condition, MM5 is by the rolling parallel computation, the meteorological field of the following 36 hours region of interest within of forecast comprises wind field, amount of turbulence, temperature field, field of pressure etc., and resolution is 3km.

Then, the meticulous meteorological field of application region atmospherical model RAMS forecast target area.

For the nuclear facilities accident of meeting with attack, the meteorological field of resolution 3km is difficult to satisfy the needs of prediction early warning, therefore with the analog result of MM5 as starting condition, by GIS data (comprising element distribution situations such as landform, vegetation, buildings, water system, road, soil) meticulous in the system automatic invocation target zone, driving RAM S carries out parallel computation, forecast meticulous meteorological field, draw the forecast result of the needed wind field of diffusion simulations, amount of turbulence, resolution is 500～1000m.

Step 2, obtain in step 1 on forecast result's the basis of wind field and amount of turbulence nuclear risk to be carried out diffusion simulations; The concrete operations step is:

The 1st step: with the accident spot is the center, and the scope in diffusion simulations zone is set.By click or directly key in the longitude and latitude of accident spot on generalized information system, the data transformation engine modules is converted to corresponding planimetric rectangular coordinates in the diffusion simulations zone with this longitude and latitude;

The 2nd step: basic parameters such as the power by words frame input accident, the type of reactor, the hidden situation of personnel, reactor core release characteristics;

The 3rd step: the wind field and the amount of turbulence that obtain in the automatic invocation step one of system, use NDM (NuclearDiffusion Model on the Monte Carlo method, nuclear proliferation pattern) that nuclear risk is carried out diffusion simulations.The NDM pattern is at first passed through the size of source strength mode computation source strength, use random walk mode computation radioactivity The smoke-plume spreading process then, system calls the Rapid Dose Calculation pattern more automatically, calculate the plume external exposure respectively, suck internal radiation, superficial deposit external exposure, draw the hazard conditions of 54 kinds of nucleic of 44 kinds of heavy water reactors or light-water reactor 19 kinds of organs;

The NDM pattern that described the 3rd step of step 2 uses is a diffusion membrane type based on the random walk principle, be used for nuclear accident radioactivity plume diffusion hazard evaluation, can be coupled with RAMS, WRF and PUMA isotype, radioactivity The smoke-plume spreading behavior under simulation different scale, different terrain and the underlying surface condition provides the spatial and temporal distributions of concentration field, dosage field for the nuclear accident consequence evaluation of heavy water reactor, light water reactor generation different brackets and hazard prediction precaution and control.

Step 3, obtain nuclear accident the harm depth, withdraw depth, clothes iodine depth, hazard area, withdraw area, clothes iodine area, harm start time and harm duration.

The concrete grammar that obtains the harm depth in the described step 3 is as follows:

The 1st step: the grid L * M of diffusion zoning is set, is defaulted as L=M=100;

The 2nd step: initial resolution Δ x is set, and default value is 10m, and then the area in primary simulation zone is S ₀=L Δ x * M Δ x, m ²

The 3rd step: the dosage threshold value D of set-up and calculated harm depth _Cov, the personnel that get usually need hidden dose value 10mSv ³

The 4th step: use the NDM pattern and spread calculating, result of calculation be d (i, j), wherein i=1,2 ..., L, j=1,2 ..., M, this result is the mean dose value in the movable height of ground staff, is generally that the 2m height distributes with interior mean dose on the ground;

The 5th step: establish initial value a=0, if d (1, j) 〉=D _CovOr d (L, j) 〉=D _CovOr d (i, 1) 〉=D _CovOr d (i, M) 〉=D _Cov, make a=a+1, then Δ x=Δ x2 ^a, returned for the 4th step;

The 6th step: if satisfy simultaneously d (1, j)＜D _Cov, d (L, j)＜D _Cov, d (i, 1)＜D _CovAnd d (i, M)＜D _Cov, then think to have calculated the harm depth; If d (i, j) 〉=D _CovAnd d (i+1, j)＜D _CovOr d (i-1, j)＜D _CovOr d (i, j+1)＜D _CovOr d (i, j-1)＜D _CovMake corresponding horizontal ordinate point I (n)=i+1, J (n)=j or I (n)=i-1, J (n)=j or I (n)=i, J (n)=j+1 or I (n)=i, J (n)=j-1, wherein n=1,2 ..., N, N is a threshold boundaries point number, calculates the distance L between any two frontier points that do not overlap _k, k=1,2 ..., K, $K=C_N^2,$ Then harm (hidden) depth is

L _cov＝Δx·max[L ₁，L ₂，…，L _K]

Use said method, can obtain withdrawing depth L _EvaKimonos iodine depth L _Iod

The concrete grammar that obtains hazard area in the described step 3 is as follows:

If initial value I _Scov=0, if d (i, j) 〉=D _Cov, make I _Scov=I _Scov+ 1, then hidden area is

S _cov＝I _scovΔx ²

Use said method, can obtain to withdraw area S _EvaThe dark S of kimonos area _IodIf the density of population is that (i j), then needs hidden number to be to ρ in the zoning

$N_{\mathrm{cov}}=\mathrm{int}[\∫\∫d(x,y){|}_{d(x,y)\≥D_{\mathrm{cov}}}\mathrm{\ρ}(x,y)\mathrm{dxdy}]$

Or $N_{\mathrm{cov}}=\mathrm{int}\left[\underset{i=1}{\overset{L}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}\underset{j=1}{\overset{M}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}d(i,j){|}_{d(i,j)\≥D_{\mathrm{cov}}}\mathrm{\ρ}(i,j)\right]$

In like manner, obtain and to withdraw number N _EvaThe dark N of kimonos area _Iod

It is as follows to obtain the concrete grammar of harm time in the described step 3:

The harm time is divided into harm start time and harm duration.After harm was defined as accident the start time and takes place, the dosage that personnel received reached the time when needing hidden threshold value, promptly

$T_{\mathrm{harm}}(i,j)=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}{t}_0+t(i,j)& d(i,j)\≥D_{\mathrm{cov}}\\ 0& \mathrm{others}\end{array}\right.$

Wherein, t ₀Be the accident time of origin.After the harm duration was meant and comes to harm, the radioactivity plume left the time that this zone also needs, promptly

$T_{\mathrm{duration}}(i,j)=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}t(i,j){|}_{d(i,j)>0}-T_{\mathrm{harm}}(i,j)& T_{\mathrm{harm}}(i,j)>0\\ 0& \mathrm{others}\end{array}\right.$

Then endangering the concluding time is

$T_{\mathrm{unmask}}(i,j)=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}t(i,j){|}_{d(i,j)>0}& T_{\mathrm{harm}}(i,j)>0\\ 0& \mathrm{others}\end{array}\right.$

The harm concluding time is the theoretical time of removing protection.

Step 4, judge whether set diffusion simulations zone calculates the harm depth of nuclear accident

System call nuclear risk index system judges whether set diffusion simulations zone calculates the harm depth of nuclear accident, if calculated the harm depth, execution in step five; If do not calculate the harm depth, return step 2.

Step 5, based on the issue of the nuclear risk early warning of GIS technology and real-time online

System calls the data transformation engine of project team's independent research automatically, d (the i of last last calculating of calculating in the step 3 just, j) be converted to data for geography information, it is the GIS vector data, three-dimension GIS system by ArcGIS9.3 or project team's independent research, with hidden zone, withdraw zone, clothes iodine zone and harm start time danger, evil duration and in ArcGIS9.3 system or three-dimension GIS system, show, realize quantification, visualize, vector quantization and intellectuality.Showing in system simultaneously needs hidden, as to withdraw kimonos iodine number and corresponding area, carries out the real-time online issue by computer network.

Described a kind of nuclear risk based on generalized information system predicts that the nuclear risk prediction early warning technology platform of method for early warning comprises: MM5 numerical forecasting module, whole world yardstick ambient field T213 module, source item GIS data, underlying surface GIS data, meticulous underlying surface GIS data, the meticulous forecast module of RAMS, NDM diffusion simulations module, the intense source mode module, nuclear risk index system data module, the nuclear facilities accident harm prediction module of meeting with attack, data transformation engine, based on early warning of generalized information system nuclear risk and real-time online release module.

Described MM5 numerical forecasting module is used to forecast the meteorological field of target area; MM5 numerical forecasting module is connected with global yardstick ambient field T213 module, underlying surface GIS data, the meticulous forecast module of RAMS.MM5 numerical forecasting module is obtained data as initial field from global yardstick ambient field T213 module, obtain GIS data in the target simulation zone as boundary condition from underlying surface GIS data then, MM5 is by the rolling parallel computation, the meteorological field of forecast target area, and a meteorological field of the target area that obtains passes to the meticulous forecast module of RAMS;

The meticulous forecast module of described RAMS is used to forecast the meticulous meteorological field of target area; The meticulous forecast module of RAMS is connected with MM5 numerical forecasting module, intense source mode module, meticulous underlying surface GIS data, NDM diffusion simulations module.The meticulous forecast module of RAMS with the analog result of MM5 as starting condition, obtain GIS data meticulous in the target area (comprising element distribution situations such as landform, vegetation, buildings, water system, road, soil) from meticulous underlying surface GIS data, RAMS carries out parallel computation then, forecast meticulous meteorological field, draw the forecast result of the needed wind field of diffusion simulations, amount of turbulence.

Described NDM diffusion simulations module is used to simulate the nuclear risk diffusion; NDM diffusion simulations module and intense source mode module, nuclear risk index system data module, data transformation engine module, the nuclear facilities accident harm prediction module of meeting with attack is connected.NDM diffusion simulations module is connected with source item GIS data module by the data transformation engine module, obtains corresponding planimetric rectangular coordinates in the diffusion simulations zone; Power by user session frame acquisition accident, the type of reactor, the hidden situation of personnel, basic parameters such as reactor core release characteristics, NDM diffusion simulations module obtains the wind field and the amount of turbulence of target area from the meticulous forecast module of RAMS, call the size of source strength mode computation source strength, use random walk mode computation radioactivity The smoke-plume spreading process, system calls the Rapid Dose Calculation pattern more automatically, calculate the plume external exposure respectively, suck internal radiation, the superficial deposit external exposure, draw the hazard conditions of 54 kinds of nucleic of 44 kinds of heavy water reactors or light-water reactor to 19 kinds of organs, and with this data transfer to the nuclear facilities accident harm prediction module of meeting with attack.

Described nuclear facilities meet with attack the accident harm prediction module be used to predict nuclear accident the harm depth, withdraw depth, clothes iodine depth, hazard area, withdraw area, clothes iodine area, harm start time and harm duration; The nuclear facilities accident harm prediction module of meeting with attack is connected with data transformation engine, Rapid Dose Calculation pattern, nuclear risk index system.

Describedly be used for real-time online issue early warning information based on the early warning of generalized information system nuclear risk and real-time online release module; Based on early warning of generalized information system nuclear risk and real-time online release module the data that data transformation engine passes over are carried out real-time release.

Claims (8)

1. the nuclear risk based on generalized information system is predicted method for early warning, it is characterized in that: comprise that step is as follows:

The forecast result of step 1, acquisition wind field and amount of turbulence;

Step 2, obtain in step 1 on forecast result's the basis of wind field and amount of turbulence nuclear risk to be carried out diffusion simulations;

Step 3, obtain nuclear accident the harm depth, withdraw depth, clothes iodine depth, hazard area, withdraw area, clothes iodine area, harm start time and harm duration;

Step 4, judge whether set diffusion simulations zone calculates the harm depth of nuclear accident: judge by the nuclear risk index whether set diffusion simulations zone calculates the harm depth of nuclear accident, if calculated the harm depth, finish this method; If do not calculate the harm depth, return step 2.

2. a kind of nuclear risk prediction method for early warning according to claim 1 based on generalized information system, it is characterized in that: the concrete grammar that obtains the harm depth in the described step 3 is as follows:

The 1st step: grid L * M that the diffusion zoning is set;

The 2nd step: initial resolution Δ x is set, and then the area in primary simulation zone is S ₀=L Δ x * M Δ x, m ²

The 3rd step: the dosage threshold value D of set-up and calculated harm depth _Cov

The 4th step: use the NDM pattern and spread calculating, result of calculation be d (i, j), wherein i=1,2 ..., L, j=1,2 ..., M, i.e. mean dose value in the movable height of ground staff;

The 5th step: if d (1, j) 〉=D _CovOr d (L, j) 〉=D _CovOr d (i, 1) 〉=D _CovOr d (i, M) 〉=D _Cov, make a=a+1, then Δ x=Δ x2 ^a, returned for the 4th step;

The 6th step: if satisfy simultaneously d (1, j)＜D _Cov, d (L, j)＜D _Cov, d (i, 1)＜D _CovAnd d (i, M)＜D _Cov, then think to calculate the harm depth; If d (i, j) 〉=D _CovAnd d (i+1, j)＜D _CovOr d (i-1, j)＜D _CovOr d (i, j+1)＜D _CovOr d (i, j-1)＜D _CovMake corresponding horizontal ordinate point I (n)=i+1, J (n)=j or I (n)=i-1, J (n)=j or I (n)=i, J (n)=j+1 or I (n)=i, J (n)=j-1, wherein n=1,2 ..., N, N is a threshold boundaries point number, calculates the distance L between any two frontier points that do not overlap _k, k=1,2 ..., K, $K=C_N^2,$ Then harm (hidden) depth is L _Cov=Δ xmax[L ₁, L ₂..., L _K];

In like manner, obtain withdrawing depth L _EvaKimonos iodine depth L _Iod

3. a kind of nuclear risk prediction method for early warning according to claim 1 based on generalized information system, it is characterized in that: the concrete grammar that obtains hazard area in the described step 3 is as follows:

If initial value I _Scov=0, if d (i, j) 〉=D _Cov, make I _Scov=I _Scov+ 1, then hidden area is

S _cov＝I _scovΔx ²

In like manner can obtain to withdraw area S _EvaKimonos iodine area S _Iod

If the density of population is that (i j), then needs hidden number to be to ρ in the zoning

$N_{\mathrm{cov}}=\mathrm{int}[\∫\∫d(x,y){|}_{d(x,y)\≥D_{\mathrm{cov}}}\mathrm{\ρ}(x,y)\mathrm{dxdy}]$

Or $N_{\mathrm{cov}}=\mathrm{int}\left[\underset{i=1}{\overset{L}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}\underset{j=1}{\overset{M}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}d(i,j){|}_{d(i,j)\≥D_{\mathrm{cov}}}\mathrm{\ρ}(i,j)\right]$

In like manner, can obtain and to withdraw number N _EvaKimonos iodine number N _Iod

4. a kind of nuclear risk prediction method for early warning according to claim 1 based on generalized information system, it is characterized in that: it is as follows to obtain the concrete grammar of harm time in the described step 3:

After harm was defined as accident the start time and takes place, the dosage that human body received reached the time when needing hidden threshold value, promptly

$T_{\mathrm{harm}}(i,j)=\begin{array}{}\end{array}\left\{\begin{array}{cc}{t}_0+t(i,j)& d(i,j)\≥D_{\mathrm{cov}}\\ 0& \mathrm{others}\end{array}\right.$

Wherein, t ₀Be the accident time of origin; After the harm duration was meant and comes to harm, the radioactivity plume left the time that this zone also needs, promptly

$T_{\mathrm{duration}}(i,j)=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}t(i,j){|}_{d(i,j)>0}-T_{\mathrm{harm}}(i,j)& T_{\mathrm{harm}}(i,j)>0\\ 0& \mathrm{others}\end{array}\right.$

Then endangering the concluding time is

$T_{\mathrm{unmask}}(i,j)=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}t(i,j){|}_{d(i,j)>0}& T_{\mathrm{harm}}(i,j)>0\\ 0& \mathrm{others}\end{array}\right.$

Be the theoretical time of removing protection.

5. according to claim 2 or 3 or 4 described a kind of nuclear risk prediction method for early warning based on generalized information system, it is characterized in that: also comprise step 5, issue: with the last d (i that calculates in the step 3 based on early warning of GIS nuclear risk and real-time online, j) be converted to data for geography information, it is the GIS vector data, with hidden zone, withdraw zone, clothes iodine zone and harm start time danger, evil duration and show, showing simultaneously needs hidden, as to withdraw kimonos iodine number and corresponding area, carries out the real-time online issue by computer network.

6. according to claim 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 described a kind of nuclear risks prediction method for early warning based on generalized information system, it is characterized in that: the concrete steps of in the described step 2 nuclear risk being carried out diffusion simulations are:

The 1st step: with the accident spot is the center, and the scope in diffusion simulations zone is set, and by the data transformation engine module this longitude and latitude is converted to corresponding planimetric rectangular coordinates in the diffusion simulations zone;

The 2nd step: power, the type of reactor, the hidden situation of personnel, reactor core release characteristics parameter that accident is set;

The 3rd step: the wind field and the amount of turbulence that obtain in the invocation step one, calculate the size of source strength, utilize random walk mode computation radioactivity The smoke-plume spreading process then, call the Rapid Dose Calculation pattern, calculate the plume external exposure respectively, suck internal radiation, superficial deposit external exposure, draw heavy water reactor or light-water reactor nucleic hazard conditions personnel.

7. one kind based on the nuclear risk of generalized information system prediction early warning platform, it is characterized in that: comprise meteorological field numerical forecasting module, global yardstick ambient field module, GIS module, the meticulous forecast module of meteorological field, diffusion simulations module, intense source mode module, nuclear risk index system data module, nuclear facilities meet with attack accident harm prediction module, data transformation engine; Meteorological field numerical forecasting module is connected with global yardstick ambient field module, GIS module, meticulous meteorological field forecast module respectively; Meticulous meteorological field forecast module is connected with meteorological field numerical forecasting module, GIS module, diffusion simulations module respectively; The diffusion simulations module is connected with intense source mode module, nuclear risk index system data module, GIS module, data transformation engine module, the nuclear facilities accident harm prediction module of meeting with attack respectively; The nuclear facilities accident harm prediction module of meeting with attack is connected with data transformation engine, Rapid Dose Calculation pattern, nuclear risk index system;

Meteorological field numerical forecasting module is obtained data as initial field from global yardstick ambient field module, obtain GIS data in the target simulation zone as boundary condition from the GIS module then, by the rolling parallel computation, the meteorological field of forecast target area, and a meteorological field of the target area that obtains passes to meticulous meteorological field forecast module; Meticulous meteorological field forecast module is obtained GIS data in the target area from the GIS module, carries out parallel computation, forecasts meticulous meteorological field, draws the forecast result of the needed wind field of diffusion simulations, amount of turbulence; The diffusion simulations module obtains corresponding planimetric rectangular coordinates in the diffusion simulations zone by the data transformation engine module; Obtain the wind field and the amount of turbulence of target area from meticulous forecast module, call the size of source strength mode computation source strength, use random walk mode computation radioactivity The smoke-plume spreading process, calculate hazard conditions and with this data transfer to the nuclear facilities accident harm prediction module of meeting with attack; Nuclear facilities meet with attack accident harm prediction module prediction nuclear accident the harm depth, withdraw depth, clothes iodine depth, hazard area, withdraw area, clothes iodine area, harm start time and harm duration.

8. a kind of nuclear risk prediction early warning platform according to claim 7 based on generalized information system, it is characterized in that: described platform also comprises based on early warning of generalized information system nuclear risk and real-time online release module, be connected with data transformation engine, the data that data transformation engine passes over are carried out the real-time release early warning information.

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