CN102087728A - Technology for expressing assessment result of disaster risk by using function curve grade map - Google Patents

Technology for expressing assessment result of disaster risk by using function curve grade map Download PDF

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CN102087728A
CN102087728A CN2011100510388A CN201110051038A CN102087728A CN 102087728 A CN102087728 A CN 102087728A CN 2011100510388 A CN2011100510388 A CN 2011100510388A CN 201110051038 A CN201110051038 A CN 201110051038A CN 102087728 A CN102087728 A CN 102087728A
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disaster
risk
expression
area
value
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袁宏永
袁进军
苏国锋
黄全义
王飞
钟少波
朱海国
文仁强
何长虹
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Tsinghua University
Beijing Global Safety Technology Co Ltd
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Tsinghua University
Beijing Global Safety Technology Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention discloses a technical method for expressing the assessment result of disaster risk by using a function curve grade map according to the damaged condition and the occurrence probability of a disaster, which is characterized by comprising the following steps of: establishing a plane rectangular coordinate system, wherein the occurrence probability of the disaster is set to be the transverse axis, the damage degree of the disaster is set to be the longitudinal axis, and the three risk constant value lines (xy=7, xy=13, and xy=19) are used for dividing a square area surrounded by the transverse axis x and the longitudinal axis y (x=5, and y=5) so as to form the function curve grade map of the disaster (shown as Figure 1); setting the damage degree value yd of the disaster and setting the occurrence probability value xd of the disaster through calculation so that the point Dd (xd, yd) expresses a risk point setting the type of the disaster; and judging the risk grade of the disaster through the area position of the risk point Dd (xd, yd) in the function curve grade map (shown as Figure 1). The method can reasonably express the assessment result of disaster risk, and overcome the defects in the prior art.

Description

A kind of function curve grade figure shows the technology of disaster risk evaluation result
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of according to disaster damaged condition and disaster possibility occurrence and utilize function curve grade figure to show the technology of disaster risk evaluation result, particularly utilize function curve grade figure to show the technology of disaster risk evaluation result.
Background technology
From the domestic and international application situation, the disaster risk assessment and as a result technique of expression generally select index system according to the kind of disaster, by all weighing method, Delphi (expert's marking) method, the G1 method, analytical hierarchy process, collection value process of iteration, the weight of each factor in the calculated with mathematical model index systems such as G2 method, utilize linearity all to weigh model again, linear weighted model, the nonlinear weight model, gain linearity weighted comprehensive evaluation model, mathematical methods such as model of fuzzy synthetic evaluation are calculated the value-at-risk of a certain disaster, show risk evaluation result then in risk Metrics (as Fig. 3).
But above technology exists its shortcoming:
1. the factor parameter that respectively participates in evaluation and electing in the index system must be provided and could be obtained by corresponding specialized department, because some data has confidentiality, the difficulty that data are obtained is very big;
2. the division of risk class in the risk Metrics is not to be boundary with equivalent risk line, but is that unit by virtue of experience divides with grid unit in the risk Metrics, represents that with risk Metrics the risk evaluation result theoretical foundation is unclear;
When 3. utilizing risk Metrics to represent that risk as a result, the identical risk point of value-at-risk may occur and appear in the matrix unit of different brackets, thereby be considered to identical value-at-risk, cause the decision-making error to risk management easily.
Therefore, when utilizing risk Metrics performance risk evaluation result, has limitation, lose rationality, for rationality and the convenience that improves the disaster risk evaluation result, according to the damaged condition and the disaster possibility occurrence of disaster, set up plane right-angle coordinate, adopt function curve grade figure to represent that the method for disaster risk evaluation result is a kind of suitable method.
Summary of the invention
In order to show the risk evaluation result of a certain setting disaster intuitively, avoid the limitation of previous methods, the rationality of raising method and applicability, the purpose of this invention is to provide a kind of damaged condition and disaster possibility occurrence according to disaster, set up plane right-angle coordinate, and utilize function curve grade figure to show the technology of setting risk evaluation result, overcome the shortcoming of prior art.
The objective of the invention is such: according to the damaged condition and the disaster possibility occurrence of disaster and utilize function curve grade figure to show the technical method of disaster risk evaluation result, it is characterized in that the possibility occurrence to set disaster D is a transverse axis, degree of damage with setting disaster D is the longitudinal axis, by calculating the damaged condition value y that sets disaster D dWith the possibility value x that sets disaster D generation d, then put D d(x d, y d) expression sets the risk of disaster D type, by a D d(x d, y d) regional location in plane right-angle coordinate (as accompanying drawing 1) judges the risk class of this kind disaster.
At first, set the damaged condition value y of disaster D dDamage the factor (as the death toll that causes by disaster by the fragility target of setting disaster; the slight wound number; severely injured number; the arable land impaired area; can utilize the water space impaired area; the wilderness area impaired area; cause loss on capital assets; cause the production economic loss; supply water break period; air feed break period; communication line break period) absolute figure; again each factor is divided into five grades; and determine the critical value of each grade, determine that according to the interval of five grades at the absolute figure place of each factor each factor infringement value is (as the death toll n that is caused by disaster 1, slight wound number n 2, severely injured number n 3, arable land impaired area s 1, can utilize water space impaired area s 2, wilderness area impaired area s 3, cause loss on capital assets r 1, cause production economic loss r 2, h break period supplies water 1, air feed h break period 2, communication line h break period 3) (scope of this value is between the 1-5), rationally weigh surely according to the importance of each factor, according to formula
Figure BSA00000443358500021
(n 1The death toll that expression is caused by disaster, n 2Expression slight wound number, n 3Represent severely injured number, s 1Expression arable land impaired area, s 2Expression can utilize water space impaired area, s 3Expression wilderness area impaired area, r 1Expression causes loss on capital assets, r 2Expression causes production economic loss, h 1Expression is supplied water break period, h 2Expression air feed break period, h 3Expression communication line break period, d 1, d 2, d 3, d 4, d 5, d 6, d 7, d 8, d 9, d 10Be respectively n 1, n 2, n 3, s 1, s 2, s 3, r 1, r 2, h 1, h 2, h 3Weight) calculate total infringement value of disaster.Secondly, obtain to set the possibility value x that disaster D takes place dBe made as five grades (1 for possible hardly according to setting disaster takes place the etesian in history frequency of disaster type D possibility, 2 is unlikely, 3 for once in a while may, 4 is possible, 5 for probably), according to setting the frequency contrast possibility occurrence grade scale that disaster D takes place in history, can determine to set the possibility value x that disaster D takes place dWith x dBe horizontal ordinate, with y dD (x for ordinate d, y d) decide the risk that disaster D takes place with regard to expression.Be transverse axis with the possibility x that sets disaster D generation again, to set disaster D degree of damage y is that the longitudinal axis is set up plane right-angle coordinate (as Fig. 1), transverse axis x is divided into 5 units, be followed successively by 1 from true origin to the positive dirction of transverse axis x, 2,3,4,5, (1 for hardly may to represent disaster possibility occurrence grade respectively, 2 is unlikely, and 3 for possible once in a while, and 4 is possible, 5 for probably), longitudinal axis y also is divided into 5 units, is followed successively by 1 from true origin to the positive dirction of longitudinal axis y, 2,3,4,5, (1 for very little to represent the degree of damage of disaster respectively, 2 is less, 3 is general, and 4 is big, and 5 for very big).Transverse axis x, longitudinal axis y, x=5 and y=5 surround square area as the risk evaluation result presentation, xy=7 in the plane coordinate system of setting up, xy=13 and xy=19 are divided into 4 area I, II, III, IV to the risk evaluation result presentation, area I, II, III, IV are decided to be 4 risk class from the upper right corner to the lower left corner, use red (IV), orange (III), yellow (II), blue (I) color showing respectively, redness is expressed as very high, the orange height that is expressed as, yellow is expressed as generally, and green is expressed as low (as Fig. 1).By risk point D (x d, y d) the different risk class zone of dropping on the risk evaluation result presentation judges that the risk status of setting disaster type D is very high, high, general and low (as Fig. 2).
The present invention compared with prior art has the following advantages:
(1) factor is obtained easily
Be used to calculate the factor of setting disaster risk assessment value and mainly be the fragility target infringement factor of setting disaster (as the death toll, slight wound number, severely injured number, the arable land impaired area that cause by disaster, can utilize water space impaired area, wilderness area impaired area, cause loss on capital assets, cause the production economic loss, the break period of supplying water, air feed break period, communication line break period), obtaining easily of these factors only needs common discussion of expert of different field to determine to get final product;
(2) method is more reasonable
Utilize function curve performance disaster risk evaluation result to meet theoretical actual, utilize xy=7, xy=13, three risk isoline of xy=19 that 5 * 5 matrix square area are divided into four area I, II, III, IV (as Fig. 1), value-at-risk is raise to the upper right contention step by the lower left corner, the boundary of risk class is boundary with these three risk isoline, not to be unit with the risk Metrics unit, identical value-at-risk can not occur and be distributed in the different risk class zones, more reasonable theoretically.
(3) easy to operate, principle is visual and understandable
Calculate the value-at-risk of setting disaster, only need obtain the scalar quantization value of disaster fragility target infringement factor parameter value and each factor, utilize simple mathematical to calculate and get final product.Judge the risk class of setting disaster, only need to judge the residing risk class of the risk point zone that calculates, just can obtain to set the risk class of disaster very intuitively, facts have proved to have very high applicability from risk figure.
Description of drawings
The function curve grade figure that Fig. 1 utilizes the risk isoline to cut apart
Fig. 2 risk point shows synoptic diagram in function curve grade figure
Fig. 3 risk Metrics figure
Fig. 4 risk evaluation result performance process flow diagram
Embodiment
(1) the damaged condition value y of setting disaster D d
The fragility target infringement factor of setting disaster is (as the death toll that is caused by disaster; the slight wound number; severely injured number; the arable land impaired area; can utilize the water space impaired area; the wilderness area impaired area; cause loss on capital assets; cause the production economic loss; supply water break period; air feed break period; communication line break period) absolute figure; again each factor is divided into five grades; and determine the critical value of each grade, determine that according to the interval of five grades at the absolute figure place of each factor each factor infringement value is (as the death toll n that is caused by disaster 1, slight wound number n 2, severely injured number n 3, arable land impaired area s 1, can utilize water space impaired area s 2, wilderness area impaired area s 3, cause loss on capital assets r 1, cause production economic loss r 2, h break period supplies water 1, air feed h break period 2, communication line h break period 3) (scope of this value is between the 1-5), according to the reasonable power surely of the importance of each factor, according to formula: (n 1The death toll that expression is caused by disaster, n 2Expression slight wound number, n 3Represent severely injured number, s 1Expression arable land impaired area, s 2Expression can utilize water space impaired area, s 3Expression wilderness area impaired area, r 1Expression causes loss on capital assets, r 2Expression causes production economic loss, h 1Expression is supplied water break period, h 2Expression air feed break period, h 3Expression communication line break period, d 1, d 2, d 3, d 4, d 5, d 6, d 7, d 8, d 9, d 10Be respectively n 1, n 2, n 3, s 1, s 2, s 3, r 1, r 2, h 1, h 2, h 3Weight) calculate total infringement value of disaster.
(2) calculate the possibility value x that sets disaster D generation d
Be made as five grades (1 for possible hardly setting disaster takes place the etesian in history frequency of disaster type D possibility, 2 is unlikely, 3 for once in a while may, 4 is possible, 5 for probably), according to setting the frequency contrast possibility occurrence grade scale that disaster D takes place in history, can determine to set the possibility value x that disaster D takes place d
(3) demonstration of disaster risk evaluation result in function curve grade figure
With x dBe horizontal ordinate, with y dD (x for ordinate d, y d) be exactly the risk coordinate of setting disaster D, the risk class that disaster D takes place is represented to set in the position in function curve grade figure.Be transverse axis with the possibility x that sets disaster D generation again, to set disaster D degree of damage y is that the longitudinal axis is set up plane right-angle coordinate (as Fig. 1), transverse axis x is divided into 5 units, be followed successively by 1 from true origin to the positive dirction of transverse axis x, 2,3,4,5, (1 for hardly may to represent disaster possibility occurrence grade respectively, 2 is unlikely, and 3 for possible once in a while, and 4 is possible, 5 for probably), longitudinal axis y also is divided into 5 units, is followed successively by 1 from true origin to the positive dirction of longitudinal axis y, 2,3,4,5, (1 for very little to represent the degree of damage of disaster respectively, 2 is less, 3 is general, and 4 is big, and 5 for very big).Transverse axis x, longitudinal axis y, x=5 and y=5 surround square area as the risk evaluation result presentation, xy=7 in the plane coordinate system of setting up, xy=13 and xy=19 are divided into 4 area I, II, III, IV to the risk evaluation result presentation, area I, II, III, IV are decided to be 4 risk class from the upper right corner to the lower left corner, use red (IV), orange (III), yellow (II), blue (I) color showing respectively, red expression risk is very high, orange expression risk is high, yellow expression risk is general, and green expression risk is low (as Fig. 1).By risk point D (x d, y d) the different risk class zone of dropping on the risk evaluation result presentation judges that the risk status of setting disaster type D is very high, high, general and low (as Fig. 2).

Claims (3)

1. one kind according to the damaged condition and the disaster possibility occurrence of disaster and utilize function curve grade figure to show the technical method of disaster risk evaluation result, it is characterized in that the possibility occurrence to set disaster D is a transverse axis, degree of damage with setting disaster D is the longitudinal axis, by calculating the damaged condition value y that sets disaster D dWith the possibility value x that sets disaster D generation d, then put D d(x d, y d) expression sets the risk of disaster D type, by a D d(x d, y d) regional location in plane right-angle coordinate judges the risk class of this kind disaster.
2. according to claim 1 according to disaster damaged condition and disaster possibility occurrence and utilize function curve grade figure to show the technical method of disaster risk evaluation result, it is characterized in that: wherein obtain the risk D that sets disaster D type d(x d, y d) method as follows: at first, set the damaged condition value y of disaster D dDamage the factor (as the death toll that causes by disaster by the fragility target of setting disaster; the slight wound number; severely injured number; the arable land impaired area; can utilize the water space impaired area; the wilderness area impaired area; cause loss on capital assets; cause the production economic loss; supply water break period; air feed break period; communication line break period) absolute figure; again each factor is divided into five grades; and determine the critical value of each grade, determine that according to the interval of five grades at the absolute figure place of each factor each factor infringement value is (as the death toll n that is caused by disaster 1, slight wound number n 2, severely injured number n 3, arable land impaired area s 1, can utilize water space impaired area s 2, wilderness area impaired area s 3, cause loss on capital assets r 1, cause production economic loss r 2, h break period supplies water 1, air feed h break period 2, communication line h break period 3) (scope of this value is between the 1-5), rationally weigh surely according to the importance of each factor, according to formula
Figure FSA00000443358400011
(n 1The death toll that expression is caused by disaster, n 2Expression slight wound number, n 3Represent severely injured number, s 1Expression arable land impaired area, s 2Expression can utilize water space impaired area, s 3Expression wilderness area impaired area, r 1Expression causes loss on capital assets, r 2Expression causes production economic loss, h 1Expression is supplied water break period, h 2Expression air feed break period, h 3Expression communication line break period, d 1, d 2, d 3, d 4, d 5, d 6, d 7, d 8, d 9, d 10Be respectively n 1, n 2, n 3, s 1, s 2, s 3, r 1, r 2, h 1, h 2, h 3Weight) calculate total infringement value of disaster.Secondly, obtain to set the possibility value x that disaster D takes place dBe made as five grades (1 for possible hardly according to setting disaster takes place the etesian in history frequency of disaster type D possibility, 2 is unlikely, 3 for once in a while may, 4 is possible, 5 for probably), according to setting the frequency contrast possibility occurrence grade scale that disaster D takes place in history, can determine to set the possibility value x that disaster D takes place dWith x dBe horizontal ordinate, with y dD (x for ordinate d, y d) decide the risk that disaster D takes place with regard to expression.
3. according to claim 1 according to disaster damaged condition and disaster possibility occurrence and utilize function curve grade figure to show security risk assessment result's technical method, it is characterized in that: the technique of expression of risk evaluation result is as follows: the possibility x that takes place with setting disaster D is a transverse axis, to set disaster D degree of damage y is that the longitudinal axis is set up plane right-angle coordinate, transverse axis x is divided into 5 units, be followed successively by 1 from true origin to the positive dirction of transverse axis x, 2,3,4,5, (1 for hardly may to represent disaster possibility occurrence grade respectively, 2 is unlikely, 3 for once in a while may, 4 is possible, and 5 for probably), longitudinal axis y also is divided into 5 units, be followed successively by 1 from true origin to the positive dirction of longitudinal axis y, 2,3,4,5, (1 for very little, and 2 is less, and 3 is general to represent the degree of damage of disaster respectively, 4 is big, and 5 for very big).Transverse axis x, longitudinal axis y, x=5 and y=5 surround square area as the risk evaluation result presentation, xy=7 in the plane coordinate system of setting up, xy=13 and xy=19 are divided into 4 area I, II, III, IV to the risk evaluation result presentation, area I, II, III, IV are decided to be 4 risk class from the upper right corner to the lower left corner, use red (IV), orange (III), yellow (II), blue (I) color showing respectively, redness is expressed as very high, the orange height that is expressed as, yellow is expressed as generally, and green is expressed as low.By risk point D (x d, y d) the different risk class zone of dropping on the risk evaluation result presentation judges that the risk status of setting disaster type D is very high, high, general and low.
CN2011100510388A 2011-03-03 2011-03-03 Technology for expressing assessment result of disaster risk by using function curve grade map Pending CN102087728A (en)

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Cited By (4)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN104376400A (en) * 2014-10-27 2015-02-25 广州市中南民航空管通信网络科技有限公司 Risk assessment method based on fuzzy matrix and analytic hierarchy process
CN104881545A (en) * 2015-05-29 2015-09-02 国家海洋局第一海洋研究所 Estimation method for risk in human injury caused by jellyfish
CN112488437A (en) * 2019-09-12 2021-03-12 英业达科技有限公司 Human resource management system and method thereof
CN113469582A (en) * 2021-09-01 2021-10-01 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 Multi-level typhoon disaster risk assessment method

Cited By (6)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN104376400A (en) * 2014-10-27 2015-02-25 广州市中南民航空管通信网络科技有限公司 Risk assessment method based on fuzzy matrix and analytic hierarchy process
CN104881545A (en) * 2015-05-29 2015-09-02 国家海洋局第一海洋研究所 Estimation method for risk in human injury caused by jellyfish
CN104881545B (en) * 2015-05-29 2017-12-19 国家海洋局第一海洋研究所 A kind of jellyfish is hurted sb.'s feelings the evaluation method of risk
CN112488437A (en) * 2019-09-12 2021-03-12 英业达科技有限公司 Human resource management system and method thereof
CN113469582A (en) * 2021-09-01 2021-10-01 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 Multi-level typhoon disaster risk assessment method
CN113469582B (en) * 2021-09-01 2021-12-24 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 Multi-level typhoon disaster risk assessment method

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Application publication date: 20110608