CN101996283A - Dynamic forecasting method for street tree city block wind disaster - Google Patents

Dynamic forecasting method for street tree city block wind disaster Download PDF

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CN101996283A
CN101996283A CN 201010565825 CN201010565825A CN101996283A CN 101996283 A CN101996283 A CN 101996283A CN 201010565825 CN201010565825 CN 201010565825 CN 201010565825 A CN201010565825 A CN 201010565825A CN 101996283 A CN101996283 A CN 101996283A
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shade tree
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CN101996283B (en
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许建明
王强
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SHANGHAI CITY PUDONG NEW AREA WEATHER OFFICE SMB
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Abstract

The invention discloses a dynamic forecasting method for a street tree city block wind disaster. The method comprises the following steps of: firstly, acquiring a wind speed acted on street trees to provide a necessary condition for street tree wind disaster damage analysis, constructing a fine forecasting technique of a block wind environment, and forecasting a horizontal wind speed acted on each street tree to provide a necessary condition for structural analysis; secondly, constructing a wind disaster damage model of the street trees, and implementing the damage analysis of the wind environment on the street trees based on the characteristic parameters of the street trees and the wind speed; and finally, forecasting the wind disaster damage level of the block street trees according to the damage level estimation of the street trees, and dynamically displaying, querying and analyzing the forecasting result so as to realize forecasting of city block street tree wind disaster loss. The established dynamic forecasting technology for the city block street tree wind disaster damage has guide effect on forecasting and early warning of the street tree wind disaster of an urban typical functional area, is expected to enhance the wind disaster dealing technology and capacity of the modern city, and provides a support for wind disaster defense and decision.

Description

The dynamic forecasting method of block, shade tree city disaster caused by a windstorm
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of method that is used for the shade tree disaster caused by a windstorm loss of block, dynamic forecasting city.
Background technology
Under the background that global climate continues to warm, extreme weather climatic event showed increased, the city meteorological disaster becomes increasingly conspicuous, and extreme weather incidents such as strong wind, heavy rain, high temperature frequently take place.Because a large amount of population and wealth have been assembled in the big city, lifeline engineering systems such as power supply, air feed, telecommunication, traffic close ties, in case experience major natural disasters, will cause huge casualties and economic loss, even bringing disaster to neighborhood and related industry, this phenomenon is referred to as the enlarge-effect of city disaster social influence.The potential great disaster in Shanghai City (not comprising war and great social security accident) comprises ten classes such as disaster caused by a windstorm, floods, earthquake calamity, fire, and wherein disaster caused by a windstorm ranks the first place.Since 1949, Shanghai is reached 15 times by the disaster caused by a windstorm of economic loss more than 1,000,000,000 yuan.In order to reduce the loss that the disaster caused by a windstorm evil is caused, the numerous and confused research dynamics of resisting disaster caused by a windstorm that strengthens in various countries.US Congress starts national checking calamity plan (National WindHazards Reduction Program-NWHRP) by bill, and the expense of relevant wind resistance research and development is increased to 2,300 ten thousand dollars/year from 5,000,000 dollars/year.
In the urban area, disaster caused by a windstorm loses mainly from three aspects: (1) is to the destruction of municipal engineering weighing structure (as building structure and dykes and dams etc.); (2) cause collapsing or damaging of non bearing structure (glass curtain wall, large board, suspended scaffold etc.); (3) because the secondary disasters such as large-area power-cuts that big tree and electric pole collapse and cause.In order to resist the city disaster caused by a windstorm, need urgently carry out the subject study of association area, wherein block, city disaster caused by a windstorm dynamic forecasting is even more important, and it is the important channel and first means that alleviate the disaster caused by a windstorm loss.The disaster caused by a windstorm forecast relates to a plurality of subjects such as meteorology, aerodynamics and building structure mechanics, comprise " wind forecast " and " forecast of causing disaster " two aspects, because it is near the ground that disaster caused by a windstorm mainly occurs in the city, so the Study of Wind-Resistant Behavior of city wind field prediction research that becomes more meticulous near the ground and block, city shade tree is its core content.But the dynamic forecasting method that does not also have block, a kind of shade tree city disaster caused by a windstorm in the prior art.
Summary of the invention
The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is the defective that does not also have block, a kind of city shade tree disaster caused by a windstorm dynamic forecasting method in the prior art in order to overcome, the dynamic forecasting method of block, a kind of city shade tree disaster caused by a windstorm is provided, this method belongs to the crossing research of atmospheric science and two subjects of civil engineering work, combine by the block, city is become more meticulous wind field forecasting technique and shade tree failure analysis technology, realize dynamic forecasting the loss of block, city shade tree disaster caused by a windstorm.
The present invention solves above-mentioned technical matters by following technical proposals:
The dynamic forecasting method of block, a kind of shade tree city disaster caused by a windstorm may further comprise the steps:
S 1, select to carry out carrying out the block of disaster caused by a windstorm dynamic forecasting, make up the three dimensional network structure of this block, obtain the underlying surface information of this block, make grid file FA;
S 2, read in grid file FA, mesh parameter is set, calculate each lattice point underlying surface parameter, obtain the forecast result of regional numerical value forecast system to the block, utilize the Fluid Mechanics Computation model to obtain block horizontal wind field hourly, comprise horizontal wind parameters u and v, write block wind field forecast file FB;
S 3, determine the locus of shade tree, comprise longitude and latitude and highway section of living in, determine the property parameters of shade tree, this property parameters comprises seeds, height of tree H, height of tree crown L, trunk girth C, range of tree-crown B, coefficient of air infiltration Ct, seeds according to shade tree, determine its bending strength f, write shade tree Parameter File FC;
S 4, read in shade tree Parameter File FC, obtain the characteristic parameter of shade tree, read in block wind field forecast file FB, the horizontal wind parameters u and the v that obtain to act on shade tree according to longitude and latitude and the elevation information of shade tree, and calculated level wind speed
Figure BSA00000366493000021
Calculate the wind-stress σ that each shade tree is subjected to then, at last the result is write Wind resistant analysis file FD;
S 5, the wind-stress σ that is subjected to according to shade tree with and bending strength f determine whether it wrecks and destructiveness.
Preferably, step S 2In the computing method of horizontal wind parameters u and v as follows: find the solution the Navier-Stokes system of equations:
∂ u i ∂ x i = 0 ;
∂ u i ∂ t + u j ∂ u i ∂ x j = - 1 ρ ∂ p ∂ x i - ∂ ∂ x j ( R ij ) ;
ρ = P RT ;
The literary style of formula has adopted einstein's symbol of suing for peace, but i and j value 1,2,3, and wherein for xi and xj, 1,2,3 represent x respectively, y, three directions of z; For ui and uj, 1,2,3 represent x respectively, y, and the speed component u on the z direction, v, w, the m/s of unit, p are disturbance barometric millimeter of mercury Pascal, by iterative, ρ is g/m for atmospheric density unit 3, T is that temperature unit is K, P is Pascal for average gas pressure unit, R=287.1J/kg/K, R IjBe Reynolds stress, calculate acquisition according to turbulent flow k-ε method of closing;
At first given u when finding the solution, v, w, P, the initial value of T, described initial value is provided by the numerical weather forecast model, then by numerical method solving equation group, obtains the u on the different grids in described block at last, v, w.
Preferably, step S 4In, set up the charming appearance and behaviour response analysis model of shade tree
Figure BSA00000366493000034
Figure BSA00000366493000035
Wherein σ is the wind-stress that acts on the shade tree,
Figure BSA00000366493000036
For acting on the horizontal wind speed size of shade tree, H is that the height of tree, L are that height of tree crown, C are that trunk girth, B are range of tree-crown, and Ct is a coefficient of air infiltration, is nondimensional empirical parameter.
Preferably, step S 5After also comprise step S 6: according to the destructiveness of shade tree, calculate the destruction grade of each shade tree, the destruction grade of each shade tree is write disaster caused by a windstorm loss file FE.
Preferably, step S 6After also comprise step S 7: the locus of at first from shade tree Parameter File FC, reading in each shade tree, secondly the disaster caused by a windstorm that obtains shade tree from disaster caused by a windstorm loss file FE destroys grade, destruction grade according to shade tree, with different colors it is labeled on the map, assess the disaster caused by a windstorm destructiveness of block shade tree at last, statistics is in the different shade tree numbers that destroy grade, obtains forecast assessment file FF.
Positive progressive effect of the present invention is: the present invention extends the achievement of numerical weather forecast to the Wind Engineering field, structural analysis technique is applied to the meteorological disaster forecast, to two interdisciplinary achievement conversions with in conjunction with having carried out useful trial, for new technological approaches is set up in the forecast and the early warning of city disaster caused by a windstorm.Block, the city shade tree disaster caused by a windstorm destruction dynamic forecasting technology that the present invention sets up has directive function for the forecast of shade tree disaster caused by a windstorm and the early warning in city exemplary functions district, be expected to strengthen the technology and the ability of modern city reply disaster caused by a windstorm, for relevant departments carry out wind hazard prevention and decision-making provides support.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is each parameter synoptic diagram of the shade tree of preferred embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 forecasts figure as a result for the near the ground horizontal wind field in a zone of preferred embodiment of the present invention, and the figure intermediate-resolution is 4m.
Fig. 3 is the process flow diagram of preferred embodiment of the present invention.
Embodiment
Provide preferred embodiment of the present invention below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, to describe technical scheme of the present invention in detail.
Destroying forecast with Lujiazui, Shanghai financial center shade tree disaster caused by a windstorm below is example, describes technical scheme of the present invention in detail.
Whole flow process comprises three parts: at first, obtaining the wind speed that acts on the shade tree is the necessary condition of carrying out the failure analysis of shade tree disaster caused by a windstorm., come in every shape because building dense in the block, city, can stream field produce down dash, vortex, angular flux, cover, effect such as draught, at different highway sections and diverse location, local wind speed exists than big-difference.Therefore need to make up the fine forecast technology of block wind environment, the forecast wind speed need navigate to each shade tree, for structure analysis provides necessary condition; Secondly, make up the disaster caused by a windstorm damage model of shade tree, based on characteristic parameter and the big or small failure analysis that realizes wind environment to shade tree of wind speed of shade tree; At last, forecast the disaster caused by a windstorm destruction grade of block shade tree, and the forecast result is dynamically shown, inquires about and analyzes, realize the forecast of block, city shade tree disaster caused by a windstorm loss according to the destruction level evaluation of shade tree.Respectively each part is described in detail below.
(1) block wind field fine forecast
1, step 1001, the forecast block is selected: select to carry out the block of disaster caused by a windstorm dynamic forecasting, make up the three dimensional network structure (comprise horizontal resolution, vertical resolution, HORIZONTAL PLAID are counted, the vertical number of plies) of block.Utilize remote sensing image (as QickBird, a kind of existing instrument) to obtain the underlying surface information of forecast area, comprise underlying surface classification (road, building, greenery patches, water body, trees, exposed soil), depth of building, Terrain Elevation, make grid file FA.
2, become more meticulous wind field forecast of step 1002, block: the block wind field that utilizes the NWP/CFD technique computes to become more meticulous.At first read in grid file FA, mesh parameter (horizontal resolution, vertical resolution, HORIZONTAL PLAID count, vertical the number of plies) is set, calculate each lattice point underlying surface parameter (roughness, Terrain Elevation, depth of building), numerical forecasting result to NWP carries out power diagnosis at last, obtain block horizontal wind field hourly, comprise u and v, write block wind field forecast file FB.Wind field result of calculation is seen Fig. 2, and the lower right corner represents that resolution is 4 meters.
Particularly, the u in the present embodiment, v computing method are as follows.Fluid Mechanics Computation (CFD with the Wind Engineering field, Computational Fluid Dynamics) numerical weather forecast (NWP of method (as the atmospheric environment pattern PUMA of Peking University) and meteorological field, Numerical Weather Prediction) method is (as the numerical weather forecast model WRF of U.S.'s atmospheric science research centre development, referring to http://www.wrf-model.org/, be used to simulate atmosphere at difference state constantly, comprise that the wind-warm syndrome pressure wets) combine, set up the wind field forecasting technique that the block, city becomes more meticulous, wherein NWP provides inlet flow conditions for CFD, thermal condition and vertically-supplying air profile, CFD carries out power diagnosis to the wind environment in the block, it has considered the various physical actions of block buildings to incoming flow, thus the wind speed profile that becomes more meticulous in the scope of acquisition block.
The CFD technology is found the solution the Navier-Stokes system of equations by numerical method:
∂ u i ∂ x i = 0
∂ u i ∂ t + u j ∂ u i ∂ x j = - 1 ρ ∂ p ∂ x i - ∂ ∂ x j ( R ij )
ρ = P RT
The literary style of formula has adopted einstein's symbol of suing for peace, but i and j value 1,2,3, and wherein for xi and xj, 1,2,3 represent x respectively, y, three directions of z; For ui and uj, 1,2,3 represent x respectively, y, the speed component u on the z direction, v, w, the m/s of unit, p are disturbance barometric millimeter of mercury Pascal, and by iterative (" numerical evaluation of atmospheric diffusion " that concrete computing method can be write with reference to Sang Jianguo etc.), ρ is atmospheric density g/m 3, T (unit K) and P (Pascal of unit) are respectively temperature and average gas pressure, R=287.1J/kg/K, R IjBe Reynolds stress, calculate obtain (" numerical evaluation of atmospheric diffusion " that concrete computing method can be write with reference to Sang Jianguo etc.), Meteorology Publishing House, 1992 years) according to turbulent flow k-ε method of closing.At first given u when finding the solution, v, w, P, the initial value of T, they are provided by NWP.By numerical method solving equation group, can obtain the u on the different grids in block at last, v, w then.
(2) ambient wind is to the failure analysis of shade tree
3, step 1003, block shade tree signature analysis: at first utilize the outdoor investigating instrument of GPS (as excellent fruit 2490C, a kind of existing instrument) to determine the locus of shade tree, comprise longitude and latitude lat and lon and highway section of living in; Secondly determine the property parameters of shade tree, comprise seeds, height of tree H, height of tree crown L, trunk girth C, range of tree-crown B, coefficient of air infiltration Ct; The 3rd seeds according to shade tree are determined its bending strength f, write shade tree Parameter File FC.
4, step 1004, shade tree Wind resistant analysis: the wind-stress that each shade tree trunk is subjected in the scope of CALCULATING PREDICTION block.At first read in shade tree Parameter File FC, obtain the characteristic parameter of shade tree, comprise longitude lat, latitude lon, tree overall height H, height of tree crown L, tree crown width of cloth B, trunk girth C.Next reads in block wind field forecast file FB, the horizontal wind parameters u and the v that obtain to act on shade tree according to longitude and latitude and the elevation information of shade tree, and calculated level wind speed
Figure BSA00000366493000061
Calculate the wind-stress σ that each shade tree is subjected to then.At last the result is write Wind resistant analysis file FD.
Particularly, the σ computing method in the present embodiment are as follows.Adopt modeling techniques such as empirical analysis method and theoretical analysis method, set up the charming appearance and behaviour response analysis model of shade tree
Figure BSA00000366493000062
Figure BSA00000366493000063
Calculate its failure mode under specific wind environment, calculate the wind-stress that shade tree is born according to the characteristic parameter of shade tree and the wind friction velocity of present position.Wherein σ is the wind-stress that acts on the shade tree,
Figure BSA00000366493000071
For acting on the horizontal wind speed size of shade tree, u and v are provided by the block wind field forecast result that becomes more meticulous, and H is that the height of tree, L are that height of tree crown, C are that trunk girth, B are range of tree-crown, and they can be measured by the outdoor investigating instrument of GPS (as excellent fruit 2490C).Ct is a coefficient of air infiltration, be that a nondimensional empirical parameter (can be judged according to density (being defined as the ratio of the forest belt vertical section printing opacity hole total area and vertical section forest belt vertical projection area), be divided into three kinds of basic classes: tight structure, density is below 20%, coefficient of air infiltration is less than 0.3, be characterized in that the forest belt branches and leaves are dense, the printing opacity hole is very little; Dredge saturating structure, density between 30%～50%, coefficient of air infiltration 0.4～0.5, there is uniform printing opacity hole in the forest belt; Ventilation structure, density are more than 60%, and coefficient of air infiltration is more than 0.6, and crown canopy portion is closely or dredges saturating structure that the printing opacity hole of lower trunk is very big).
(3) shade tree disaster caused by a windstorm loss forecast
5, step 1005, shade tree disaster caused by a windstorm loss analysis: the destruction grade of each shade tree in the scope of CALCULATING PREDICTION block.The wind-stress σ that is subjected to according to shade tree with and bending strength f determine whether it wrecks and destructiveness.Wherein the wind-stress that is subjected to of each shade tree is obtained from Wind resistant analysis file FD, and the bending strength of each shade tree is obtained from shade tree Parameter File FC.Destruction grade with each shade tree writes disaster caused by a windstorm loss file FE at last.
6, step 1006, shade tree disaster caused by a windstorm forecast interpretation of result: the locus of at first from shade tree Parameter File FC, reading in each shade tree, secondly the disaster caused by a windstorm that obtains shade tree from disaster caused by a windstorm loss file FE destroys grade, destruction grade according to shade tree, with different colors it is labeled on the map, for example, 1 grade is green, and 2 grades is blue, and 3 grades is yellow, 4 grades is orange, 5 grades is red, so just can directly judge different highway sections, the destruction situation of shade tree in the scope of different streets is for government and department's decision-making provide reference, make forecast assessment file FF, description is in the different shade tree numbers that destroy grade.
Particularly, at first determine its bending strength f according to the seeds of shade tree in the present embodiment, f determines (to be referenced into pretty minister in ancient times and to wait " the China's timber will " of writing, China Forest publishing house according to the seeds of shade tree, publishing in 1992, is 778kgf/cm as the bending strength of plane tree 2, the bending strength of fragrant camphor tree is 824kgf/cm 2, the bending strength of Chinese parasol tree is 744kgf/cm 2); Secondly destroy classification standard according to urban path tree, by suffered wind-stress and its bending strength of shade tree relatively, determine whether shade tree incurs loss and lose grade, and the disaster caused by a windstorm of shade tree destroys the standard that grade adopts Shanghai disaster prevention and control research institute to formulate, being divided into is 5 grades, sees Table 1.
Table 1
Figure BSA00000366493000081
To forecast that at last the result dynamically shows on the GIS map, utilize the destructiveness of different colours mark shade tree different brackets, the disaster caused by a windstorm loss result of statistics block shade tree.
To sum up, the present invention relates to the correlative study achievement in atmospheric science and two fields of civil engineering work science, comprise the three-dimensional wind environment forecasting technique in block, city and based on two key contents of shade tree failure analysis technology of structural characteristic parameter.By the achievement of numerical weather forecast is extended to the Wind Engineering field, structural analysis technique is applied to the meteorological disaster forecast, to two interdisciplinary achievement conversions with in conjunction with having carried out useful trial, for new technological approaches is set up in the forecast and the early warning of city disaster caused by a windstorm.
Though more than described the specific embodiment of the present invention, it will be understood by those of skill in the art that these only illustrate, protection scope of the present invention is limited by appended claims.Those skilled in the art can make numerous variations or modification to these embodiments under the prerequisite that does not deviate from principle of the present invention and essence, but these changes and modification all fall into protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (5)

1. the dynamic forecasting method of block, shade tree city disaster caused by a windstorm is characterized in that it may further comprise the steps:
S 1, select to carry out carrying out the block of disaster caused by a windstorm dynamic forecasting, make up the three dimensional network structure of this block, obtain the underlying surface information of this block, make grid file FA;
S 2, read in grid file FA, mesh parameter is set, calculate each lattice point underlying surface parameter, obtain the forecast result of regional numerical value forecast system to the block, utilize the Fluid Mechanics Computation model to obtain block horizontal wind field hourly, comprise horizontal wind parameters u and v, write block wind field forecast file FB;
S 3, determine the locus of shade tree, comprise longitude and latitude and highway section of living in, determine the property parameters of shade tree, this property parameters comprises seeds, height of tree H, height of tree crown L, trunk girth C, range of tree-crown B, coefficient of air infiltration Ct, seeds according to shade tree, determine its bending strength f, write shade tree Parameter File FC;
S 4, read in shade tree Parameter File FC, obtain the characteristic parameter of shade tree, read in block wind field forecast file FB, the horizontal wind parameters u and the v that obtain to act on shade tree according to longitude and latitude and the elevation information of shade tree, and calculated level wind speed
Figure FSA00000366492900011
Calculate the wind-stress σ that each shade tree is subjected to then, at last the result is write Wind resistant analysis file FD;
S 5, the wind-stress σ that is subjected to according to shade tree with and bending strength f determine whether it wrecks and destructiveness.
2. dynamic forecasting method as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that step S 2In the computing method of horizontal wind parameters u and v as follows: find the solution the Navier-Stokes system of equations:
∂ u i ∂ x i = 0 ;
∂ u i ∂ t + u j ∂ u i ∂ x j = - 1 ρ ∂ p ∂ x i - ∂ ∂ x j ( R ij ) ;
ρ = P RT ;
The literary style of formula has adopted einstein's symbol of suing for peace, but i and j value 1,2,3, and wherein for xi and xj, 1,2,3 represent x respectively, y, three directions of z; For ui and uj, 1,2,3 represent x respectively, y, and the speed component u on the z direction, v, w, the m/s of unit, p are disturbance barometric millimeter of mercury Pascal, by iterative, ρ is g/m for atmospheric density unit 3, T is that temperature unit is K, P is Pascal for average gas pressure unit, R=287.1J/kg/K, R IjBe Reynolds stress, calculate acquisition according to turbulent flow k-ε method of closing;
At first given u when finding the solution, v, w, P, the initial value of T, described initial value is provided by the numerical weather forecast model, then by numerical method solving equation group, obtains the u on the different grids in described block at last, v, w.
3. dynamic forecasting method as claimed in claim 1 or 2 is characterized in that step S 4In, set up the charming appearance and behaviour response analysis model of shade tree
Figure FSA00000366492900021
Wherein σ is the wind-stress that acts on the shade tree, For acting on the horizontal wind speed size of shade tree, H is that the height of tree, L are that height of tree crown, C are that trunk girth, B are range of tree-crown, and Ct is a coefficient of air infiltration, is nondimensional empirical parameter.
4. dynamic forecasting method as claimed in claim 1 is characterized in that step S 5After also comprise step S 6: according to the destructiveness of shade tree, calculate the destruction grade of each shade tree, the destruction grade of each shade tree is write disaster caused by a windstorm loss file FE.
5. dynamic forecasting method as claimed in claim 4 is characterized in that step S 6After also comprise step S 7: the locus of at first from shade tree Parameter File FC, reading in each shade tree, secondly the disaster caused by a windstorm that obtains shade tree from disaster caused by a windstorm loss file FE destroys grade, destruction grade according to shade tree, with different colors it is labeled on the map, assess the disaster caused by a windstorm destructiveness of block shade tree at last, statistics is in the different shade tree numbers that destroy grade, obtains forecast assessment file FF.
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