CN101201927A - Dynamic evaluation and partition early warning system for region land deterioration - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of agricultural resources and environment, in particular to a dynamic evaluation and warning system for regional ecological environment. Through the dynamic monitoring and evaluation on the regional land degradation and the design of division warning system, the dynamic evaluation and warning system can scientifically, completely and dynamically describe the space-time evolution of regional agricultural resources and environment, which comprises the establishment of an index system, the determination of indexes ordering, the calculation of index weight and the development of effect testing software; dynamic and quantitative simulation to land degradation is carried out according to time sequence, while the division warning to regional land degradation is carried out according to geographical space. The invention can not only trace the evolution path of resources and environment, but also reveal the future evolution trend of regional land degradation in every period and every region to find out regional difference and limiting factor of land degradation and put forward resources optimal allocation model of sustainable development and countermeasure of sustainable development on regional agriculture.

Description

The dynamic evaluation of region land deterioration and partition early warning system

Technical field

The invention belongs to the agricultural resource environmental area.It is a kind of important method of aspect space-time two, resource environment being carried out dynamic quantization evaluation and early warning, can carry out dynamic linear simulation and dynamic trend early warning to the regional environment tendency that develops on this basis, the theoretical foundation of science is provided for the macro adjustments and controls in agricultural and social development field.Human can sustainable development relevant with the guarantee supporting capacity of resource environment, how to judge the rapport between sustainable development and the resource environment system, be the key of correctly holding the human kind sustainable development tendency.

Technical background

Land deterioration is meant the decay or the forfeiture of fertility.Its form of expression has the soil erosion, desertification of land, soil secondary salinization and secondary gleyization, land pollution etc.Land deterioration is the coefficient result of natural cause and artificial origin, and the former is the basis and the latentization factor of land deterioration, and the latter is the incitant of land deterioration.The coverage of land deterioration not only relates to the arable land, and all have the soil of certain productive capacity to relate to woods soil, grazing etc.

External research aspect land deterioration

UNEP (United Nations Environment Program) (UNEP) has carried out the project scheduling of land deterioration (the being desertification) assessment of global soil degradation evaluation, establishment global soil degeneration figure and arid lands respectively nineteen ninety and 1992.Held international soil degradation meeting in 1993 again, the tropical and subtropical zone national soil degradation in area and soil and the storehouse pilot study of terrain digitalized data are carried out in decision.

In the 15th international pedology conference of Mexico in 1994, soil degradation, especially extremely participant's attention of the soil degradation problem of tropical and subtropical zone, many scientists point out, tropical and subtropical zone will have 1/3 arable land to become the wasteland in 20 years from now on, 117 national foods are with the underproduction significantly, appeal to strengthen the restoration and reconstruction research of soil degradation and land deterioration, and in the notion of soil degradation, dynamic data base, degeneration index and evaluation model, Geographic Information System, the remote sensing and the location of degenerating, dynamic monitoring, simulation modelling and prediction, there has been new progress the research aspects such as expert decision system of degeneration system restoration and reconstruction.

International water and soil conservation association has also organized global challenge international symposium based on the ecosystem management in basin in 1997 at Toronto, from the problems such as soil degradation such as the angle discussion soil erosion in the ecosystem, basin.

Along with the also aggravation day by day of global economy development soil degradation problem, world soil federation has held first and second international land deterioration meeting directly being the theme with land deterioration in Turkey and Thailand respectively in 1996 and 1999, and determine that in first session having set up soil degradation research work group specializes in soil degradation, in second session, then the land deterioration problem is more paid attention to, and the height that has the scholar to propose land deterioration research is brought up to the degeneration science is familiar with.

At present, international soil degradation research has obtained impressive progress in the following areas:

1. from the internal agent of land deterioration and the comprehensive angle of the external action factor (comprising nature and socio-economic factor), study evaluation index and grade scale and the evaluation method and the appraisement system of land deterioration;

2. start with process and the essence and the mechanism of research land deterioration from physics, chemistry and biology process and the interaction thereof of soil;

3. from viewpoint of history, in conjunction with the location dynamic monitoring, study evolution process and the developing trend and the speed of all kinds of land deteriorations, and it is simulated and predicts;

4. stress the research of mankind's activity (particularly the soil utilizes mode and soil management control measures) to soil degradation and soil quality influence, and the theoretical research of land deterioration combined with the improvement and the exploitation of degraded land, carry out the experiment and demonstration and the popularization of soil renewal technology and soil ecology function and protecting;

5. pay attention to combining of conventional art (field study, field test, pot experiment, lab analysis test, location observation test etc.) and new and high technology (remote sensing, Geographic Information System, Ground Positioning System, analog simulation, expert system etc.);

6. from the influence of socioeconomic angle research land deterioration to soil quality and yield-power thereof.

Domestic research aspect land deterioration

China's pedology research work mainly concentrates on soil in the past decades and takes place, classifies and drawing (particularly soil resource examination); The basic physics of soil, chemistry and biology character (particularly soil fertility proterties); Aspects such as soil resource development and use and improvement (particularly improvement of soil fertility, the improvement of saliferous clay and red soil etc.).Though these work are closely related with the soil degradation science in a broad sense, but directly the research work that is the theme with soil degradation mainly concentrates on nearest more than 10 years, wherein again with tropical and subtropical zone soil degradation research work system and deeply comparatively, and participated in the establishment of tropical and subtropical zone soil degradation figure in the eighties, finished the authorized strength work of 1: the 100 ten thousand soil degradation figure in Hainan Island.

Since the nineties, Nanjing Soil Inst., Chinese Academy of Sciences is in conjunction with bearing country " eight or five " tackling of key scientific and technical problems special topic " Southern Red Soil degradation mechanism and prophylactico-therapeutic measures research " and state natural sciences fund main project " change in time and space of east China red earth area soil degradation; the research of mechanism and control countermeasure " task, macroscopic view investigation located to dynamic observe with laboratory simulation test with the field combine, with remote sensing, new and high technologies such as Geographic Information System combine with conventional art, nature is combined with socio-economic factor, time-evolution is combined with Study on spatial distribution, degradation mechanism is combined with control countermeasure research, basic process to the soil degradation of Southern Red Soil hills area, the mechanism of action and control countermeasure have been carried out useful exploration, and have obtained impressive progress in the following areas:

1. preliminary definition the notion of soil degradation, illustrated basic process, mechanism, characteristics that red soil is degenerated.

2. aspect soil erosion, utilize remote sensing data and geographic information system technology to work out the east khoai soil erosion map 1: 400 ten thousand nineties and the soil erosion map etc. that superposes superpose type map and type area 70,80, the nineties.

3. aspect the fertility degradation mechanism, set up Southern Red Soil district soil fertility database, tentatively proposed fertility degradation evaluation index system, carried out the trial that soil fertility degeneration is estimated, and drawn the relevant map of red soil degradation evaluation; With nutrient balance and soil nutrient degenerate research combine summed up China's south farmland nutrient balance 10 annual variation rules and with the relation of soil fertility degeneration, think that the nutrient deficit circulation that the soil erosion, acidifying leaching loss of nutrient etc. cause and the imbalance of nutrient are the basic reasons that soil nutrient is degenerated; Use remote sensing means and historical summary, worked out the soil organic carbon density map of 0～20cm and 0～100cm soil layer, inquired into the growth and decline of red soil organic carbon pool and the Changing Pattern of conversion and soil ulmin composition and property; Having proposed the phosphorus element fixedly is the plain main cause of degenerating of red soil phosphorus, and the essence of the plain validity decay of phosphorus is the double-coreization of phosphorus element and to the diffusion of solid phase, has solved the plain substantive issue of degenerating of red soil phosphorus.

4. aspect soil acidification, studied the acidifying characteristics of red soil,, set up soil sensitivity to acid grade scale, carried out classification of red soil sensitivity to acid and subregion, drawn relevant regional soil sensitivity to acid subregion sketch plan first according to the sour shock-absorbing capacity of soil; Adopt the MAGIC model, and proofread and correct China's red soil acidifying is predicted, disclose the spatial and temporal variation of red soil acidity; And obtaining impressive progress aspect the crop rapid evaluation of anti-aluminium.

5. aspect soil pollution, utilize multiparameter that comprehensive assessment has been carried out in the soil pollution of heavy metal, determined the computing method of comprehensive pollution indexes (CPI) value, the pollution situation of different regions is assessed, drawn the heavy metal pollution sketch plan; Use adsorption coefficient (Kd) and half life period (t1/2) and the matrix migration model of agricultural chemicals in soil, illustrated the mechanism of soil pollution by pesticides; The result of study aspect the influence of soil fertility is shown that heavy metal pollution can reduce the hold facility of soil to potassium in heavy metal pollution, promote the leaching loss of potassium; And for nitrogen and phosphorus, mainly be the activity of the enzyme of reduction and its catalytic degradation and circular correlation.

6. red soil is degenerated and to be prevented and treated the aspect, has proposed regional improvement control countermeasure, three dimensional-planting-breeding patterns such as " top woods-cashew nut-Gu Nong-pond fish " etc., and some development modes are demonstrated and estimate.

Yet China is vast in territory, and nature and social and economic condition complexity are various, the interzone obvious difference.Each ecotype district all is faced with various resource environment degenerate problems to some extent in the agriculture and rural development process, some problem is whole district's coexistence, and some then is that the particular type district is peculiar.The work in past only concentrates on red soil hills area, the south of the River, and touches less to other area.

The deficiency of research reaches research direction from now on

Land deterioration be one very comprehensive and complicated, have on temporal dynamic and the space each the opposite sex and the height nonlinear characteristic.The research field that the land deterioration Institute of Science relates to is a lot, not only relates to pedology, agronomy, ecology and environmental science, and closely related with social science and economics and relevant principles and policies.

Yet up to now, most of research work both domestic and external bias toward specific region or the variation spatially of specific land type or the evaluation of degeneration, and seldom relate to different degenerated forms at dynamic change on the time series and the distributional difference on the space.And, be in the exploratory stage mostly in touch upon quantification, mobilism, the research work comprehensive and aspects such as practicality and yardstick conversion of assessment indicator system of land deterioration evaluation method.

Although the land deterioration of China research has obtained certain, distinctive progress in some aspects, also be in the starting stage on the whole.For this reason, the research work of China's land deterioration from now on should be on wider and darker level, carry out to system synthesis the comprehensive dynamic evaluation of land deterioration and the recovery and the reconstruction research of main degenerated form Agro-ecological System, and progressively expand to land deterioration and environmental degradation direction.Particularly lay particular emphasis on the dynamic similation of dissimilar land deterioration processes is combined with degeneration early warning prediction, for the reasonable utilization of reconstruction, recovery and the degraded land of the ecosystem provides decision references.

Summary of the invention

Mainly comprise 3 aspect contents: the dynamic monitoring system of region land deterioration; The dynamic estimation system of region land deterioration and the partition early warning system of region land deterioration.

The dynamic monitoring system of 1 region land deterioration

Utilize LTW-1 type soil erosion automatic monitor station and monitoring station, grassland, the main type to the land deterioration in (above zone, cities and counties) in the zone flows and stationary monitoring year by year, obtains the related data of carrying out dynamic evaluation.

Utilize statistical data to obtain all kinds of land deterioration data of different change in time and space in the zone.

According to above-mentioned two aspect results, set up the land deterioration database of multi-period different change in time and space in the zone.

The dynamic estimation system of 2 region land deteriorations

1. use analytical hierarchy process design dynamic evaluation model

The one-level model:

$A\left(t\right)=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{W}_i\left(t\right)B_i\left(t\right),(t=\mathrm{1,2},\·\·\·,m)$

Wherein: A (t) is a t land deterioration index constantly; W _i(t) be i item index t weight vectors (being 1 row, 4 row) constantly here; B _i(t) be t secondary evaluation index matrix value constantly.

Second-level model:

$B\left(t\right)=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{W}_i\left(t\right)E_i\left(t\right),(t=\mathrm{1,2},\·\·\·,n)$

Wherein: W _i(t) be i item index t weight vectors (being 1 row, 5 row) constantly here; E _i(t) be t three grades of evaluation index matrix values constantly.

2. make up the index system (seeing accompanying drawing 1) of reflection land deterioration degree

Description of drawings:

First class index: claim again destination layer or decision-making level, i.e. land degradation index in the zone.

Two-level index: claim again the intermediate layer, consisted of by 4 kinds of main forms of land deterioration, Be soil erosion, climate arid, salination and desertification, arranged by destination layer.

Three grades of indexs: claim again the bottom, by soil erosion in the concrete reflecting regional, arid 20 index constitutes of change, salination and Desertification Degree, wherein every five indices is subordinate to respectively Each two-level index that belongs to the intermediate layer is arranged by the intermediate layer criterion respectively, and these three grades refer to Mark the principal character of land deterioration dynamic evolution in the basic coverage area.

By very complete Land Degradation Evaluation index system of above-mentioned three grades of index constitutes, profit With this appraisement system multi-period year by year evaluation is carried out in land deterioration in the zone, on this basis Carry out the dynamic early warning analysis of land deterioration, exactly perfect the carried out resource of a cover, ecological and The dynamic evaluation of environment aspect and dynamic early warning system.

3. index ordering

Land deterioration has following several types: soil erosion, climate arid, salination and desertification, Different land deterioration index orderings determine different evaluation results, and the different evaluation result determines Fixed different improvement (preventing land deterioration) object. The land deterioration of different ecological type, by Different with kind in the performance degree, the index ordering needs the land deterioration spy according to different ecological type Levy and decide.

The definition of soil erosion is in the soil erosion " Chinese encyclopaedia voluminous dictionary ": " by water, weight The water and soil resources that the extraneous power such as power and wind causes destroy and loss ". Soil erosion is frequent generation The most general land deterioration phenomenon, also be the soil face of being injured except desert, grassland and forest Long-pending maximum.

Climate arid

Arid is serious and for a long time rainless, causes the growth, the livestock water that affect crops, And cause living and the critical shortage of industrial water. The degree of different ecological type district arid is not With, take China as example: the Northwest's arid is the most serious, and the spring drought in northeast and North China is very general Time, affected by meteorological abnormal factors, local arid also often has generation. But as being only second to northeast The climate arid of area restriction agricultural development and soil erosion relatively do not surpass soil erosion face Long-pending.

Salination

Salination refers to water filling ground owing to salt accumulation and the process that slowly worsens. When the soil saliferous When measuring too high (surpassing 0.3%), form saline and alkaline disaster. China's salinized soil mainly is distributed in the west The Xinjiang in north, the Hexi Corridor in Gansu, the Caidamu Basin in cleer sea, the Hetao Plain of Inner Mongol, Some low laying areas in Ningxia, the Huang-Huai-Hai plain in North China, western part of Northeast plain and ground, strand The district.

Desertification

" desertification " refers in the windy sandy ground surface environment of arid, because exceedingly Human activity has destroyed the fragile ecological balance, makes the area in former non-desert occur living with dust storm Moving is the desert like landscape of principal character, has caused the environmental degradation of fertility decline Journey. Desertification is important ecological environment problem on the our times, also be one outstanding Geological problem. Serious problem is " global desertification is still drawing out ". In recent years, China The desertification land area is increased to 17.6 ten thousand square kilometres from original 13.7 square kilometres.

4. determine index weights

Weight (W_Bi) definite method have four kinds: method of arithmetical average, geometrical mean method, Maximum eigenvalue method and fuzzy weighting method, Main Basis geometrical mean method is determined weight here.

At first give the judgement matrix assignment of setting up (getting the odd number assignment), two-level index is 4 row, 4 row, and three grades of indexs are 5 row, 5 row.The product of every row element after elder generation's calculating two-level index 4 row 4 column matrix assignment.

$M_{\mathrm{Bi}}=\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{b}_{\mathrm{ij}},(j=\mathrm{1,2},\·\·\·,n)$

Calculate M _BiGeometrical mean, that is: ${\stackrel{\‾}{W}}_{\mathrm{Bi}}=\sqrt[n]{M_{\mathrm{Bi}}},(i=\mathrm{1,2},\·\·\·,n),$ To W _BiCarry out standardization processing, that is: $W_{\mathrm{Bi}}=\frac{{\stackrel{\‾}{W}}_{\mathrm{Bi}}}{\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{\stackrel{\‾}{W}}_{\mathrm{Bi}}},(i=\mathrm{1,2},\·\·\·,n)$

Calculate the weight of three grade of 5 row 5 row assignment matrix with quadrat method.Carry out level then and always sort, promptly

$W_{\mathrm{Ci}}=W_{\mathrm{Bi}}\·W_{\mathrm{CP}}^i,(p=\mathrm{1,2},\·\·\·,m)$

Carry out validity check (addressing before the check formula) at last.The every index weight of this project sees Table 1.It is definite that whole index weight adopts geometric average method to calculate, and key step is as follows:

The single preface of level: set up judgment matrix, and obtain the product of every row element in the judgment matrix.

$M_{\mathrm{Bi}}=\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Π}}}{b}_{\mathrm{ij}},(i=\mathrm{1,2},\·\·\·,n)$

Calculate M _BiGeometrical mean, promptly ${\stackrel{\‾}{W}}_{\mathrm{Bi}}=\sqrt[n]{M_{\mathrm{Bi}}},(i=\mathrm{1,2},\·\·\·,n)$

To W _BiCarry out standardization processing, promptly

$W_{\mathrm{Bi}}=\frac{{\stackrel{\‾}{W}}_{\mathrm{Bi}}}{\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{\stackrel{\‾}{W}}_{\mathrm{Bi}}},(i=\mathrm{1,2},\·\·\·,n)$

Level always sorts: according to each layer ranking results, calculate each factor of the bottom to the ground floor weight.

$W_{\mathrm{BC}}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{W}_{\mathrm{Bi}}\·W_{\mathrm{CP}}^i,(p=\mathrm{1,2},\·\·\·,m)$

Consistency check: the consistency check formula is as follows:

$C\·R=\frac{C\·I}{R\·I}$

Wherein: RI is known.Following value is arranged: when n was 1 and 2, RI all got 0 value; When n from 3 to 9 the time, RI gets 0.58 respectively; 0.90; 1.12; 1.24; 1.32; 1.41; 1.45.

CI is disposable index, and computing formula is as follows:

$C\·I=\frac{{\mathrm{\λ}}_{\max }-n}{n-1}$

${\mathrm{\λ}}_{\max }=\frac{1}{n}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}\frac{{(B\×W_B)}_i}{{\left(W_B\right)}_i}$

Concrete result of calculation see attached list (is example with the NORTHEAST REGION IN territory).

Subordinate list northeast region land deterioration index weight score detail

In view of present weight disposal route very complicated, applicant is developed agricultural resource environmental evaluation system software (this software will be divided an application), now main contents is described below: data nondimensionalization processing section; Automatically carry out the weight calculation part; Validity check part and model evaluation part.

5. storehouse, arrangement and typing are prepared, built to data

The soil water experiment data of statistical yearbook, online types of databases search, investigation on the spot and part, with the data process arrangement that obtains through various channels, range each corresponding index input database under one's name with spreadsheet, and data are carried out nondimensionalization handle.

6. computing evaluation

Above-mentioned three, two-level index data are carried out normalized, estimate computing step by step according to the time period that is divided in year of data aggregation then, draw one-level evaluation index integrated value at last, promptly regional 4 land deterioration indexes.With Excel is computing platform, adopts the U.S. to produce Matlab6.5 version software for calculation and carries out matrix operation and mapping; The resource environment evaluation system software of patent applicant and software programming personnel cooperative development is used for parameter weight and validity check.

The partition early warning system of 3 region land deteriorations

Mainly comprise: the present situation Early-warning Model, find out the restriction factor that influence improves ability of agricultural sustainable development; Negative sense evolution Early-warning Model is carried out trace simulation to individual prefectures and cities agricultural resource environment and economic development variation tendency; The speed of worsening Early-warning Model is according to being determined speed of worsening by the increase and decrease degree of warning index, the intensity of variation of prediction agroecological environment in 10 years futures and economic development.

Intend adopting Early-warning Model:

Present situation early warning E (t)＜EP;

Negative sense evolution early warning $E\left(t_2\right)<E\left(t_1\right),\frac{|E\left(t_2\right)-E\left(t_1\right)|}{\left(t_2\right)-\left(t_1\right)}<\mathrm{\&Delta;EP};$

The speed of worsening early warning $E\left(t_2\right)<E\left(t_1\right),\frac{|E\left(t_2\right)-E\left(t_1\right)|}{\left(t_2\right)-\left(t_1\right)}\&GreaterEqual;\mathrm{\&Delta;EP}$

1. linear fit and future evolution trend

Attribute is sorted out, the evaluation result year by year of n m districts and cities' two-level index is carried out attribute according to 5 kinds of two-level index to be sorted out, and do linear fit or regretional analysis, can depict the Historical Evolution track of land deterioration in the process of economic development of each department, according to these historical variations trajectory predictions evolution trend from now on, find out inherent mechanism and external cause that each interregional resource environment of different times develops.

2. determine warning index

Intend adopting one-level, secondary and three grades of evaluation indexes in the second portion research contents to carry out early warning respectively.

3. divide police region

Early warning object difference, the appellation difference of police region is divided four class police regions.The police region of one-level warning index can be divided into redness (seriously), orange (relatively more serious), yellow (more serious) and blue (generally serious).

4. determine alert limit value territory

The division methods of alert limit has multiple, there are halving method, codomain method, natural section method etc. multiple, specifically set according to early warning object and evaluation result, this project mainly adopts nature section method that aforementioned early warning object is divided, be divided into four sections between 1～0, which police region is evaluation result be exactly at which section.

Description of drawings:

Fig. 1 is three grades of assessment indicator system synoptic diagram of land deterioration.

Specific implementation method

Utilize the principle of the invention to finish " model investigation of limiting the quantity of that Heilongjiang Province's fowl poultry safety is cultured " project with program according to the method described above.

This invention determines the weight of very complicated in the analytical hierarchy process and the validity check problem, be converted into easy fast with software implementation computation model accurately.Adopt space-time dynamic simulation thinking that land deterioration process in the zone is carried out dynamic evaluation, improve analytical hierarchy process and only a certain moment has been carried out the static limitation of estimating, and the collection dynamic evaluation is an one with dynamic early warning, both can review the Historical Evolution track, can predict future development trend again, be in regional agriculture environmental assessment improvement or other plan in territory decision process, rare dynamic monitoring and valency and dynamic early warning system.

Claims (1)

1. one kind is carried out dynamic monitoring, dynamic evaluation and dynamic early warning system from two visual angles of space-time to region land deterioration, it is characterized in that utilizing multi-period evaluation means the land deterioration process to be carried out the measure and the dynamic quantitative model of dynamic evaluation and dynamically early warning, the determining of the foundation of the system that hits the target in an orderly manner, index ordering, the calculating of index weight, the exploitation and the dynamic linear match of validity check software, concrete grammar and step are as follows:

The dynamic estimation system of a, region land deterioration

1. use analytical hierarchy process design dynamic evaluation model

The one-level model:

$A\left(t\right)=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{W}_i\left(t\right)B_i\left(t\right)$ (t＝1，2，…，m)

Wherein: A (t) is a t land deterioration index constantly; W _i(t) be i item index t weight vectors (being 1 row, 4 row) constantly here; B _i(t) be t secondary evaluation index matrix value constantly;

Second-level model:

$B\left(t\right)=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}}{W}_i\left(t\right)E_i\left(t\right)$ (t＝1，2，…，n)

Wherein: W _i(t) be i item index t weight vectors (being 1 row, 5 row) constantly here; E _i(t) be t three grades of evaluation index matrix values constantly;

2. make up the index system of reflection land deterioration degree

3. index ordering

Wherein two-level index is soil erosion, climate arid, salination and desertification, the different different evaluation results of land deterioration index ordering decision, and the different evaluation result determines different improvement (preventing land deterioration) object; The land deterioration of different ecological type, because the performance degree is different with kind, the index ordering needs to decide according to the land deterioration feature of different ecological type;

4. determine the index weight

The present invention develops agricultural resource environmental evaluation system software, is mainly used in weight (W _Bi) determine and validity check;

5. storehouse, arrangement and typing are prepared, built to data

The soil water experiment data of statistical yearbook, online types of databases search, investigation on the spot and part, with the data process arrangement that obtains through various channels, range each corresponding index input database under one's name with spreadsheet, and data are carried out nondimensionalization handle;

6. computing evaluation

Above-mentioned three, two-level index data are carried out normalized, estimate computing step by step according to the time period that is divided in year of data aggregation then, draw one-level evaluation index integrated value at last, promptly regional 4 land deterioration indexes; With Excel is computing platform, adopts the U.S. to produce Matlab6.5 version software for calculation and carries out matrix operation and mapping; The resource environment evaluation system software of patent applicant and software programming personnel cooperative development is used for parameter weight and validity check;

The partition early warning system of b, region land deterioration

Present situation early warning E (t)＜EP;

Negative sense evolution early warning $E\left(t_2\right)<E\left(t_1\right),\frac{|E\left(t_2\right)-E\left(t_1\right)|}{\left(t_2\right)-\left(t_1\right)}<\mathrm{\&Delta;EP};$

The speed of worsening early warning $E\left(t_2\right)<E\left(t_1\right),\frac{|E\left(t_2\right)-E\left(t_1\right)|}{\left(t_2\right)-\left(t_1\right)}\&GreaterEqual;\mathrm{\&Delta;EP}$

1. linear fit and future evolution trend

Attribute is sorted out, the evaluation result year by year of n m districts and cities' two-level index is carried out attribute according to 5 kinds of two-level index to be sorted out, and do linear fit or regretional analysis, can depict the Historical Evolution track of land deterioration in the process of economic development of each department, according to these historical variations trajectory predictions evolution trend from now on, find out inherent mechanism and external cause that each interregional resource environment of different times develops;

2. determine warning index

Intend adopting one-level, secondary and three grades of evaluation indexes in the second portion research contents to carry out early warning respectively;

3. divide police region

Early warning object difference, the appellation difference of police region is divided four class police regions; The police region of one-level warning index can be divided into redness (seriously), orange (relatively more serious), yellow (more serious) and blue (generally serious);

4. determine alert limit value territory

The division methods of alert limit has multiple, there are halving method, codomain method, natural section method etc. multiple, specifically set according to early warning object and evaluation result, this project mainly adopts nature section method that aforementioned early warning object is divided, be divided into four sections between 1～0, which police region is evaluation result be exactly at which section.

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