AU2007299959A1

AU2007299959A1 - Products and processes for processing information related to weather and other events

Info

Publication number: AU2007299959A1
Application number: AU2007299959A
Authority: AU
Inventors: Howard W. Lutnick
Original assignee: Individual
Current assignee: Individual
Priority date: 2006-09-28
Filing date: 2007-09-28
Publication date: 2008-04-03
Also published as: WO2008039966A2; EP2079536A2; US20140179414A1; CA2664753A1; US20190005779A1; WO2008039966A3; EP2079536A4; JP2010506254A; JP5775261B2; US20230154289A1; CA3054044A1; US11562628B2; US10657772B2; US10074244B2; US20200258354A1; US8562422B2; US20080081684A1

Description

WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 PRODUCTS AND PROCESSES FOR PROCESSING INFORMATION RELATED TO WEATHER AND OTHER EVENTS This application claims the benefit of priority of U.S. Patent Application 5 Serial No. 11/536,430, filed September 28, 2006, which is incorporated by reference herein as part of the present disclosure for purposes of enablement and written description. DETAILED DESCRIPTION 10 The following sections I - VIII provide a guide to interpreting this patent application. I. Terms 15 The term "product" means any machine, manufacture and / or composition of matter, unless expressly specified otherwise. The term "process" means any process, algorithm, method or the like, unless expressly specified otherwise. Each process (whether called a method, algorithm or otherwise) inherently 20 includes one or more steps, and therefore all references to a "step" or "steps" of a process have an inherent antecedent basis in the mere recitation of the term 'process' or a like term. Accordingly, any reference in a claim to a 'step' or 'steps' of a process has sufficient antecedent basis. The terms "an embodiment", "embodiment", "embodiments", "the 25 embodiment", "the embodiments", "one or more embodiments", "some embodiments", "certain embodiments", "one embodiment", "another embodiment" and the like mean "one or more (but not all) embodiments of the disclosed invention(s)", unless expressly specified otherwise. The term "variation" of an invention means an embodiment of the 30 invention, unless expressly specified otherwise. A reference to "another embodiment" in describing an embodiment does not imply that the referenced embodiment is mutually exclusive with another WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 embodiment (e.g., an embodiment described before the referenced embodiment), unless expressly specified otherwise. The terms "including", "comprising" and variations thereof mean "including but not limited to", unless expressly specified otherwise. 5 The terms "a", "an" and "the" mean "one or more", unless expressly specified otherwise. The term "plurality" means "two or more", unless expressly specified otherwise. The term "herein" means "in this patent application, including anything 10 which may be incorporated by reference", unless expressly specified otherwise. The phrase "at least one of', when such phrase modifies a plurality of things (such as an enumerated list of things) means any combination of one or more of those things, unless expressly specified otherwise. For example, the phrase "at least one of a widget, a car and a wheel" means either (i) a widget, (ii) a 15 car, (iii) a wheel, (iv) a widget and a car, (v) a widget and a wheel, (vi) a car and a wheel, or (vii) a widget, a car and a wheel. Numerical terms such as "one", "two", etc. when used as cardinal numbers to indicate quantity of something (e.g., one widget, two widgets), mean the quantity indicated by that numerical term, but do not mean at least the quantity 20 indicated by that numerical term. For example, the phrase "one widget" does not mean "at least one widget", and therefore the phrase "one widget" does not cover, e.g., two widgets. The phrase "based on" does not mean "based only on", unless expressly specified otherwise. In other words, the phrase "based on" describes both "based 25 only on" and "based at least on". The term "represent" and like terms are not exclusive, unless expressly specified otherwise. For example, the term "represents" do not mean "represents only", unless expressly specified otherwise. In other words, the phrase "the data represents a credit card number" describes both "the data represents only a credit 30 card number" and "the data represents a credit card number and the data also represents something else".

WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 The term "whereby" is used herein only to precede a clause or other set of words that express only the intended result, objective or consequence of something that is previously and explicitly recited. Thus, when the term "whereby" is used in a claim, the clause or other words that the term "whereby" modifies do not 5 establish specific further limitations of the claim or otherwise restricts the meaning or scope of the claim. The term "e.g." and like terms means "for example", and thus does not limit the term or phrase it explains. For example, in the sentence "the computer sends data (e.g., instructions, a data structure) over the Internet", the term "e.g." explains 10 that "instructions" are an example of "data" that the computer may send over the Internet, and also explains that "a data structure" is an example of "data" that the computer may send over the Internet. However, both "instructions" and "a data structure" are merely examples of "data", and other things besides "instructions" and "a data structure" can be "data". 15 The term "i.e." and like terms means "that is", and thus limits the term or phrase it explains. For example, in the sentence "the computer sends data (i.e., instructions) over the Internet", the term "i.e." explains that "instructions" are the "data" that the computer sends over the Internet. 20 II. Determining The term "determining" and grammatical variants thereof (e.g., to determine a price, determining a value, determine an object which meets a certain criterion) is used in an extremely broad sense. The term "determining" encompasses a wide variety of actions and therefore "determining" can include 25 calculating, computing, processing, deriving, investigating, looking up (e.g., looking up in a table, a database or another data structure), ascertaining and the like. Also, "determining" can include receiving (e.g., receiving information), accessing (e.g., accessing data in a memory) and the like. Also, "determining" can include resolving, selecting, choosing, establishing, and the like. 30 The term "determining" does not imply certainty or absolute precision, and therefore "determining" can include estimating, predicting, guessing and the like.

WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 The term "determining" does not imply that mathematical processing must be performed, and does not imply that numerical methods must be used, and does not imply that an algorithm or process is used. The term "determining" does not imply that any particular device must be 5 used. For example, a computer need not necessarily perform the determining. III. Forms of Sentences Where a limitation of a first claim would cover one of a feature as well as more than one of a feature (e.g., a limitation such as "at least one widget" covers 10 one widget as well as more than one widget), and where in a second claim that depends on the first claim, the second claim uses a definite article "the" to refer to the limitation (e.g., "the widget"), this does not imply that the first claim covers only one of the feature, and this does not imply that the second claim covers only one of the feature (e.g., "the widget" can cover both one widget and more than one 15 widget). When an ordinal number (such as "first", "second", "third" and so on) is used as an adjective before a term, that ordinal number is used (unless expressly specified otherwise) merely to indicate a particular feature, such as to distinguish that particular feature from another feature that is described by the same term or by 20 a similar term. For example, a "first widget" may be so named merely to distinguish it from, e.g., a "second widget". Thus, the mere usage of the ordinal numbers "first" and "second" before the term "widget" does not indicate any other relationship between the two widgets, and likewise does not indicate any other characteristics of either or both widgets. For example, the mere usage of the 25 ordinal numbers "first" and "second" before the term "widget" (1) does not indicate that either widget comes before or after any other in order or location; (2) does not indicate that either widget occurs or acts before or after any other in time; and (3) does not indicate that either widget ranks above or below any other, as in importance or quality. In addition, the mere usage of ordinal numbers does not 30 define a numerical limit to the features identified with the ordinal numbers. For example, the mere usage of the ordinal numbers "first" and "second" before the term "widget" does not indicate that there must be no more than two widgets.

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WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 When a single device or article is described herein, more than one device / article (whether or not they cooperate) may alternatively be used in place of the single device / article that is described. Accordingly, the functionality that is described as being possessed by a device may alternatively be possessed by more 5 than one device / article (whether or not they cooperate). Similarly, where more than one device or article is described herein (whether or not they cooperate), a single device / article may alternatively be used in place of the more than one device or article that is described. For example, a plurality of computer-based devices may be substituted with a single computer 10 based device. Accordingly, the various functionality that is described as being possessed by more than one device or article may alternatively be possessed by a single device / article. The functionality and / or the features of a single device that is described may be alternatively embodied by one or more other devices which are described 15 but are not explicitly described as having such functionality / features. Thus, other embodiments need not include the described device itself, but rather can include the one or more other devices which would, in those other embodiments, have such functionality / features. 20 IV. Disclosed Examples and Terminology Are Not Limiting Numerous embodiments are described in this patent application, and are presented for illustrative purposes only. The described embodiments are not, and are not intended to be, limiting in any sense. The presently disclosed invention(s) are widely applicable to numerous embodiments, as is readily apparent from the 25 disclosure. One of ordinary skill in the art will recognize that the disclosed invention(s) may be practiced with various modifications and alterations, such as structural, logical, software, and electrical modifications. Although particular features of the disclosed invention(s) may be described with reference to one or more particular embodiments and / or drawings, it should be understood that such 30 features are not limited to usage in the one or more particular embodiments or drawings with reference to which they are described, unless expressly specified otherwise.

WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 The present disclosure is neither a literal description of all embodiments of the invention nor a listing of features of the invention which must be present in all embodiments. Neither the Title (set forth at the beginning of the first page of this patent 5 application) nor the Abstract (set forth at the end of this patent application) is to be taken as limiting in any way as the scope of the disclosed invention(s). An Abstract has been included in this application merely because an Abstract of not more than 150 words is required under 37 C.F.R. § 1.72(b). The title of this patent application and headings of sections provided in this 10 patent application are for convenience only, and are not to be taken as limiting the disclosure in any way. Devices that are described as in communication with each other need not be in continuous communication with each other, unless expressly specified otherwise. On the contrary, such devices need only transmit to each other as 15 necessary or desirable, and may actually refrain from exchanging data most of the time. For example, a machine in communication with another machine via the Internet may not transmit data to the other machine for long period of time (e.g. weeks at a time). In addition, devices that are in communication with each other may communicate directly or indirectly through one or more intermediaries. 20 A description of an embodiment with several components or features does not imply that all or even any of such components / features are required. On the contrary, a variety of optional components are described to illustrate the wide variety of possible embodiments of the present invention(s). Unless otherwise specified explicitly, no component / feature is essential or required. 25 Although process steps, algorithms or the like may be described in a sequential order, such processes may be configured to work in different orders. In other words, any sequence or order of steps that may be explicitly described does not necessarily indicate a requirement that the steps be performed in that order. The steps of processes described herein may be performed in any order practical. 30 Further, some steps may be performed simultaneously despite being described or implied as occurring non-simultaneously (e.g., because one step is described after the other step). Moreover, the illustration of a process by its depiction in a drawing

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WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 does not imply that the illustrated process is exclusive of other variations and modifications thereto, does not imply that the illustrated process or any of its steps are necessary to the invention, and does not imply that the illustrated process is preferred. 5 Although a process may be described as including a plurality of steps, that does not imply that all or any of the steps are essential or required. Various other embodiments within the scope of the described invention(s) include other processes that omit some or all of the described steps. Unless otherwise specified explicitly, no step is essential or required. 10 Although a product may be described as including a plurality of components, aspects, qualities, characteristics and / or features, that does not indicate that all of the plurality are essential or required. Various other embodiments within the scope of the described invention(s) include other products that omit some or all of the described plurality. 15 An enumerated list of items (which may or may not be numbered) does not imply that any or all of the items are mutually exclusive, unless expressly specified otherwise. Likewise, an enumerated list of items (which may or may not be numbered) does not imply that any or all of the items are comprehensive of any category, unless expressly specified otherwise. For example, the enumerated list 20 "a computer, a laptop, a PDA" does not imply that any or all of the three items of that list are mutually exclusive and does not imply that any or all of the three items of that list are comprehensive of any category. V. Computing 25 It will be readily apparent to one of ordinary skill in the art that the various processes described herein may be implemented by, e.g., appropriately programmed general purpose computers and computing devices. Typically a processor (e.g., one or more microprocessors, one or more microcontrollers, one or more digital signal processors) will receive instructions (e.g., from a memory or 30 like device), and execute those instructions, thereby performing one or more processes defined by those instructions. '7 WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 A "processor" means one or more microprocessors, central processing units (CPUs), computing devices, microcontrollers, digital signal processors, or like devices or any combination thereof Thus a description of a process is likewise a description of an apparatus for 5 performing the process. The apparatus can include, e.g., a processor and those input devices and output devices that are appropriate to perform the method. Further, programs that implement such methods (as well as other types of data) may be stored and transmitted using a variety of media (e.g., computer readable media) in a number of manners. In some embodiments, hard-wired 10 circuitry or custom hardware may be used in place of, or in combination with, some or all of the software instructions that can implement the processes of various embodiments. Thus, various combinations of hardware and software may be used instead of software only. The term "computer-readable medium" refers to any medium that 15 participates in providing data (e.g., instructions, data structures) which may be read by a computer, a processor or a like device. Such a medium may take many forms, including but not limited to, non-volatile media, volatile media, and transmission media. Non-volatile media include, for example, optical or magnetic disks and other persistent memory. Volatile media include dynamic random access memory 20 (DRAM), which typically constitutes the main memory. Transmission media include coaxial cables, copper wire and fiber optics, including the wires that comprise a system bus coupled to the processor. Transmission media may include or convey acoustic waves, light waves and electromagnetic emissions, such as those generated during radio frequency (RF) and infrared (IR) data 25 communications. Common forms of computer-readable media include, for example, a floppy disk, a flexible disk, hard disk, magnetic tape, any other magnetic medium, a CD-ROM, DVD, any other optical medium, punch cards, paper tape, any other physical medium with patterns of holes, a RAM, a PROM, an EPROM, a FLASH-EEPROM, any other memory chip or cartridge, a carrier wave 30 as described hereinafter, or any other medium from which a computer can read. Various forms of computer readable media may be involved in carrying data (e.g. sequences of instructions) to a processor. For example, data may be (i) WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 delivered from RAM to a processor; (ii) carried over a wireless transmission medium; (iii) formatted and / or transmitted according to numerous formats, standards or protocols, such as Ethernet (or IEEE 802.3), SAP, ATP, BluetoothTM, and TCP/IP, TDMA, CDMA, and 3G; and / or (iv) encrypted to ensure privacy or 5 prevent fraud in any of a variety of ways well known in the art. Thus a description of a process is likewise a description of a computer readable medium storing a program for performing the process. The computer readable medium can store (in any appropriate format) those program elements which are appropriate to perform the method. 10 Just as the description of various steps in a process does not indicate that all the described steps are required, embodiments of an apparatus include a computer / computing device operable to perform some (but not necessarily all) of the described process. Likewise, just as the description of various steps in a process does not 15 indicate that all the described steps are required, embodiments of a computer readable medium storing a program or data structure include a computer-readable medium storing a program that, when executed, can cause a processor to perform some (but not necessarily all) of the described process. Where databases are described, it will be understood by one of ordinary 20 skill in the art that (i) alternative database structures to those described may be readily employed, and (ii) other memory structures besides databases may be readily employed. Any illustrations or descriptions of any sample databases presented herein are illustrative arrangements for stored representations of information. Any number of other arrangements may be employed besides those 25 suggested by, e.g., tables illustrated in drawings or elsewhere. Similarly, any illustrated entries of the databases represent exemplary information only; one of ordinary skill in the art will understand that the number and content of the entries can be different from those described herein. Further, despite any depiction of the databases as tables, other formats (including relational databases, object-based 30 models and / or distributed databases) could be used to store and manipulate the data types described herein. Likewise, object methods or behaviors of a database can be used to implement various processes, such as the described herein. In 0 WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 addition, the databases may, in a known manner, be stored locally or remotely from a device which accesses data in such a database. Various embodiments can be configured to work in a network environment including a computer that is in communication (e.g., via a communications 5 network) with one or more devices. The computer may communicate with the devices directly or indirectly, via any wired or wireless medium (e.g. the Internet, LAN, WAN or Ethernet, Token Ring, a telephone line, a cable line, a radio channel, an optical communications line, commercial on-line service providers, bulletin board systems, a satellite communications link, a combination of any of 10 the above). Each of the devices may themselves comprise computers or other computing devices, such as those based on the Intel® Pentium® or CentrinoTM processor, that are adapted to communicate with the computer. Any number and type of devices may be in communication with the computer. In an embodiment, a server computer or centralized authority may not be 15 necessary or desirable. For example, the present invention may, in an embodiment, be practiced on one or more devices without a central authority. In such an embodiment, any functions described herein as performed by the server computer or data described as stored on the server computer may instead be performed by or stored on one or more such devices. 20 VI. Continuing Applications The present disclosure provides, to one of ordinary skill in the art, an enabling description of several embodiments and / or inventions. Some of these embodiments and / or inventions may not be claimed in this patent application, but 25 may nevertheless be claimed in one or more continuing applications that claim the benefit of priority of this patent application. Applicants intend to file additional applications to pursue patents for subject matter that has been disclosed and enabled but not claimed in this patent application. 30 VII. 35 U.S.C. § 112, paragraph 6 WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 In a claim, a limitation of the claim which includes the phrase "means for" or the phrase "step for" means that 35 U.S.C. § 112, paragraph 6, applies to that limitation. In a claim, a limitation of the claim which does not include the phrase 5 "means for" or the phrase "step for" means that 35 U.S.C. § 112, paragraph 6 does not apply to that limitation, regardless of whether that limitation recites a function without recitation of structure, material or acts for performing that function. For example, in a claim, the mere use of the phrase "step of' or the phrase "steps of' in referring to one or more steps of the claim or of another claim does not mean that 10 35 U.S.C. § 112, paragraph 6, applies to that step(s). With respect to a means or a step for performing a specified function in accordance with 35 U.S.C. § 112, paragraph 6, the corresponding structure, material or acts described in the specification, and equivalents thereof, may perform additional functions as well as the specified function. 15 Computers, processors, computing devices and like products are structures that can perform a wide variety of functions. Such products can be operable to perform a specified function by executing one or more programs, such as a program stored in a memory device of that product or in a memory device which that product accesses. Unless expressly specified otherwise, such a program need 20 not be based on any particular algorithm, such as any particular algorithm that might be disclosed in this patent application. It is well known to one of ordinary skill in the art that a specified function may be implemented via different algorithms, and any of a number of different algorithms would be a mere design choice for carrying out the specified function. 25 Therefore, with respect to a means or a step for performing a specified function in accordance with 35 U.S.C. § 112, paragraph 6, structure corresponding to a specified function includes any product programmed to perform the specified function. Such structure includes programmed products which perform the function, regardless of whether such product is programmed with (i) a disclosed 30 algorithm for performing the function, (ii) an algorithm that is similar to a disclosed algorithm, or (iii) a different algorithm for performing the function. 1 1 WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 VIII. Disclaimers Numerous references to a particular embodiment does not indicate a disclaimer or disavowal of additional, different embodiments, and similarly references to the description of embodiments which all include a particular feature 5 does not indicate a disclaimer or disavowal of embodiments which do not include that particular feature. A clear disclaimer or disavowal in this patent application shall be prefaced by a phrase such as "does not include" or "cannot perform". IX. Overview 10 In an embodiment, a system (e.g., a network-based computer system) includes the ability to "bet" on the occurrence of a weather-related event (e.g., hurricane) affecting a particular geographic area (e.g., a town). Payout (e.g., determination of particular amounts payable) from such a bet can be made according to a pari-mutuel system, fixed payout system or any other methodology. 15 The use of terms such as "bet" and "wager" is for convenience only and does not connote that there necessarily must be any involvement of any form of gambling or a lottery sweepstakes, though such are embodiments. For example, the methods and steps disclosed herein may be performed using financial services systems such as systems which process, receive, or other involve futures, options or otherwise 20 financial instruments. In such an embodiment, a future, option or other derivative may be based on an instrument which is ("valued" or otherwise takes its value from) data that relates to an event such as a weather event. Such an instrument may take its value from, e.g., a weather reading, official release or statement regarding the weather, etc. 25 Pari-mutuel betting is typically considered a betting system in which the amounts wagered from most or all bets (or possibly bets of a particular type) are allocated to a "pool" (or to a pool of a plurality of pools based on the particular type). Typically certain amounts are deducted from the pool (e.g., taxes, transaction fees, and / or a "house" amount) and the remaining amount after such 30 deductions are available to be paid out to "winners" of the betting system. The payout amounts for winners are calculated by sharing the pool among all placed bets. For example, a portion of the pool (e.g., the portion remaining after certain 192 WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 deductions) may be divided among all winners, with each winner getting an amount that is proportional to their respective wagered amount. Many variations and features of pari-mutuel betting are well-known and thus are not explicitly recited herein. 5 According to an embodiment, one or more bets may be made (e.g., in a pari-mutuel betting system, in any other betting system, in a system based on financial instruments) in which the bet defines (explicitly and / or implicitly) one or more of: (1) an amounted wagered (e.g., an amount which is put at risk of complete 10 loss), (2) a designation of one or more areas (e.g., a town, a county, a state, other area designations consisting of contiguous or noncontiguous areas), (3) a designation of one or more weather-related events, natural disasters or other events, including hurricanes, storms, depressions, earthquakes, tsunami, 15 meteorite strikes, any other event that is described herein, or any events based on any events that are described herein; (4) a time period (e.g., a month, a hurricane season, any another season, a year, an indefinite period which extends indefinitely, an indefinite period which extends infinitely into the future). 20 In an embodiment, payouts for such bets are based on (1) whether the designated event(s) "hits" the designated area(s) in a time period (e.g., this season, this year, next year, any time period made of contiguous or noncontiguous time periods), (2) whether the designated event(s) "hits" the designated area(s) before hitting any other areas in a time period and / or (3) to what extent the designated 25 event(s) "hits" the designated area(s) in a time period. In an embodiment, determination of what amounts are to be paid may be further based on which of a plurality of pools the payout is to be allocated from. For example, there can be two pools, one of which is used to pay for a first designated event that occurs in a time period (if any), and the second pool is used to pay for a second designated event in 30 a time period (if any). In an embodiment, bets may be sold or otherwise transferred (e.g., sold after being made by a first party, such sale transferring ownership / beneficial 1 2 WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 interest to a third party). For example, a bet may be sold via an auction or any other sales system to a third party, and the third party would receive the payout if the bet is a winning bet. An API (application programming interface) can be provided to allow 5 access (e.g., by custom software developed by others) to any of the functionality or data described herein. X. Some Weather-Related Events and Other Natural Events In meteorology, a tropical cyclone is a storm system fueled by the heat 10 released when moist air rises and condenses. Cyclones are distinguished from other cyclonic windstorms such as nor'easters, European windstorms, and polar lows by the heat mechanism that fuels them, which makes them "warm core" storm systems. Depending on their location and strength, there are various terms by which tropical cyclones are known, such as hurricane, typhoon, tropical storm, and 15 tropical depression. Tropical cyclones can produce extremely strong winds, tornadoes, torrential rain, and huge waves swamping coastal areas called storm surges. The heavy rains and storm surges create giant floods. The effects of tropical cyclones on human populations can be catastrophic, involving injury, death and property 20 damage. Tropical cyclones are classified into three main groups, based on intensity: tropical depressions, tropical storms, and a third group of more intense storms, whose name depends on the region. A tropical depression is an organized system of clouds and thunderstorms 25 with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of less than 17 m/s (33 kt, 38 mph, or 62 km/h). It has no "eye", and does not typically have the organization or the spiral shape of more powerful storms. A tropical storm is an organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds between 17 and 32 m/s 30 (34-63 kt, 39-73 mph, or 62-117 km/h). At this point, the distinctive cyclonic shape starts to develop, though an eye is usually not present. Government weather 11A WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 services assign first names to systems that reach this intensity (thus the term named storm). A hurricane or typhoon (sometimes simply referred to as a tropical cyclone, as opposed to a depression or storm) is a system with sustained winds greater than 5 33 m/s (64 kt, 74 mph, or 118 km/h). A tropical cyclone tends to develop an eye, an area of relative calm (and lowest atmospheric pressure) at the center of circulation. The eye is often visible in satellite images as a small, circular, cloud free spot. Surrounding the eye is the eyewall, an area about 10-50 mi (16-80 km) wide in which the strongest thunderstorms and winds circulate around the storm's 10 center. The circulation of clouds around a cyclone's center imparts a distinct spiral shape to the system. Bands or arms may extend over great distances as clouds are drawn toward the cyclone. The direction of the cyclonic circulation depends on the hemisphere; it is counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in 15 the Southern Hemisphere. Maximum sustained winds in the strongest tropical cyclones have been measured at more than 85 m/s (165 kt, 190 mph, 305 km/h). Eyewall replacement cycles naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones. When cyclones reach peak intensity they usually - but not always - have an eyewall and radius of maximum winds that contract to a very small size, around 5 20 to 15 miles. At this point, some of the outer rainbands may organize into an outer ring of thunderstorms that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and momentum. During this phase, the tropical cyclone is weakening (i.e., the maximum winds die off a bit and the central pressure goes up). Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely and the storm can 25 be the same intensity as it was previously or, in some cases, even stronger. Even if the cyclone is weaker at the end of the eyewall replacement cycle, the fact that it has just undergone one and will not undergo another one soon will allow it to strengthen further, if other conditions allow it to do so. Officially, "landfall" is when a storm's center (the center of the eye, not its 30 edge) reaches land. Due to the storm's size, storm conditions may be experienced on the coast and inland well before landfall. In fact, for a storm moving inland, the landfall area typically experiences about half the storm before the actual landfall. 1 r WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 Many other forms of cyclone can form in nature, such as extratropical cyclones and subtropical cyclones. An earthquake is phenomenon that results from, and is powered by, the sudden release of stored energy that radiates seismic waves. At the Earth's surface, 5 earthquakes may manifest themselves by a shaking or displacement of the ground and sometimes tsunamis, which may lead to loss of life and destruction of property. Since seismologists cannot directly observe rupture in the Earth's interior, they rely on geodetic measurements and numerical experiments to analyze seismic 10 waves and accurately assess severity of earthquakes. The severity of an earthquake can be measured in terms of magnitude and intensity. For that seismologists use two fundamentally different but equally important types of scales. The original force or energy of an earthquake is measured on a magnitude scale, while the intensity of shaking occurring at any given point on the Earth's surface is measured 15 on an intensity scale. While the non-specialized media will often refer to the magnitudes of earthquakes as being reported on the Richter scale, the magnitudes reported nowadays are actually on the moment magnitude scale. The older Richter scale is not adapted for larger earthquakes. 20 The analyses of earthquake severity allow scientists to estimate the locations and likelihoods of future earthquakes, helping identify areas of greatest hazard and ensure safety of people and infrastructure located in such areas. To show the extent of various levels of seismic effects within a particular locality, seismologists compile special maps called isoseismal maps. An isoseismal map 25 uses contours to outline areas of equal value in terms of ground shaking intensity, ground surface liquefaction, shaking amplification, or other seismic effects. Typically, these maps are created by combining historical instrument-recorded data with responses to postal questionnaires that are sent to each post office near the earthquake and to a sparser sample of post offices with increasing distance from 30 the earthquake. This way of preparing a seismic hazard map can take months to complete. In contrast to the old method, a newer method of information collection takes advantage of the Internet to generate initial hazard maps almost instantly. 1 A WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 Data are received through a questionnaire on the Internet answered by people who actually experienced the earthquake, reducing the process of preparing and distributing a map for a particular earthquake from months to minutes. A tsunami is a series of waves when a body of water, such as an ocean is 5 rapidly displaced on a massive scale. Earthquakes, mass movements above or below water, volcanic eruptions and other underwater explosions, and large meteorite impacts all have the potential to generate a tsunami. The effects of a tsunami can range from unnoticeable to devastating. Most of the damage of a tsunami is caused by the huge mass of water 10 behind the initial wave front, as the height of the sea keeps rising fast and floods powerfully into the coastal area. The weight of water is enough to pulverize objects in its path, often reducing buildings to their foundations and scouring exposed ground to the bedrock. Large objects such as ships and boulders can be carried several miles inland before the tsunami subsides. 15 Tsunamis contain immense energy, propagate at high speeds and can travel great trans-oceanic distances with little overall energy loss. A tsunami can cause damage thousands of miles from its origin, so there may be several hours between its creation and its impact on a coast, arriving long after the seismic wave generated by the originating event arrives. Although the total or overall loss of 20 energy is small, the total energy is spread over a larger and larger circumference as the wave travels. XI. Pool In an embodiment, an amount wagered (e.g., by a purchase of a financial 25 instrument having a value that is based on a natural event) is added or otherwise allocated to a "pool" of funds or other resources. The pool is, in turn, used in making payouts to winners. A portion of the pool from wagers (e.g., 10% of the pool, a fixed amount) may be deducted from the pool and provided to the affected area (e.g., provided to 30 one or more municipalities, state government agencies, entities in the affected areas). Additionally or alternatively, a portion of the pool (e.g., 2% of the pool, a fixed amount) may be allocated to expenses in administering the betting system or 17 WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 any aspect of the betting system. Additionally or alternatively, a portion of the pool may be allocated to a profit percentage or to a royalty due to an entity. In any of the foregoing or in any other type of deduction or allocation, the manner of the deduction or allocation may be different in different circumstance (e.g., different 5 amounts in the pool at different times such as at the end of a time period). For example, the portion deducted from the pool may be higher when the amount in the pool is higher (e.g., 10% if the pool exceeds $1,000,000, and 5% otherwise). In an embodiment, the portion deducted from the pool may be lower when the amount in the pool is higher (e.g., 5% if the pool exceeds $1,000,000, and 10% otherwise). 10 A pool may be increased by amounts such as matching contributions and / or any amounts not paid from prior time periods or from other betting events (e.g., no hurricane hit last season, there were no winners last season). In an embodiment, the amounts remaining in the pool after deductions are paid to "wining bets" (e.g., those bets which designated an area which was first hit 15 by a designated event). There may be a plurality of pools, in which each pool corresponds to different areas. For example, there may be a different pool for each of a plurality of large geographic areas (e.g., the Southeast, the Midwest). In an embodiment, each geographic area corresponding to a pool includes a substantial number of 20 areas (e.g., one hundred towns) which may be designated by bets. Such an embodiment may be practiced in combination with embodiments in which there are pools for different events (e.g., hurricane, storm) and / or different occurrences of the same event (e.g., a plurality of hurricanes). A pool may not be used at all to make payouts. For example, in an 25 embodiment there may be two or more pools, each for different payouts for different hurricanes during a season or other time period (e.g., a first hurricane to hit and a second hurricane to hit). If there are fewer hurricanes that hit than such pools, then the amounts in those (e.g., unused) pools may be employed for other purposes (e.g., used for subsequent pools and / or events, used to payout winners of 30 previous events). XII. Determining "Winners" 152 WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 The amount of payout to each winning bettor (a "bettor" being used herein to indicate not only an entity that makes a bet, but also to indicate an entity that desires to make a bet and an entity that uses a system that allows bets to be made) can be based on a pari-mutuel system (e.g., a pro rata share of the available pool), a 5 fixed amount (e.g., twice the amount of the respective amount wagered), or any combination of the foregoing or other payout determinations. In an embodiment, the payout to a wining bettor is based on the strength of the event (e.g., the strength of a hurricane, the strength of an earthquake). For example, the payouts from a category three storm hitting a designated area can be 10 greater than the payouts from a category two storm hitting that designated area. In an embodiment where a payout is to be lesser, a smaller portion of the pool may be used to payout bets (e.g., 80% of the available pool for a hurricane that is category three or lesser, and all of the available pool for a hurricane that is greater than category three). In an embodiment, there is no payout made for lesser strength 15 events. Payout can be based on other factors besides strength of the event. For example, the payout can be based on the damage done by the event. In an embodiment, where it is determined that during a particular season a hurricane hit a particular town first (before that hurricane hit any other towns), then 20 payouts (e.g., from a first pool of funds) can be made to those bettors who made bets that designated that particular town. Multiple events (e.g., during the same time period) may be processed in a variety of manners. For example, if during that same season as in the above embodiment, a second hurricane were to hit a certain town first (before that second hurricane hit any other towns), then payouts (e.g., 25 from a second pool of funds) can be made to those bets which designated that certain town. Such a determination of whether and / or to what extent the designated event "hits" the designated area (or hits the designated area first) in a time period can be made objectively and / or subjectively. For example, a designated event 30 (e.g., a hurricane, a portion such as the eye of the hurricane) may be designated by an official statement (of other statement or data) of an entity such as the U.S. National Weather Service. For example, the U.S. National Weather Service may 1 0 WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 designate the area where the eye of the hurricane made landfall, and this area could be considered the first area "hit" by that hurricane. Such information from the U.S. National Weather Service could then be (1) received directly by a computer or other computing device, and / or (2) used as a reference to verify of the value of an 5 instrument purportedly based on such an official statement. For example, at the beginning of a season, bets may be made by a plurality of participants, in which each bet indicates an area (e.g., a county) that a hurricane is to hit. A determination is later made as to what area is hit (e.g., which is the first county the eye of the first hurricane hits before any other counties are hit). The 10 determination may be made soon after the hurricane hits an area (e.g., the day after) and / or at other times (e.g., at the end of the season, when official data is available). In an embodiment, there is a plurality of determinations made for the same event (e.g., a determination made "provisionally" and a determination made subsequently which is deemed an "official" designation). In such an embodiment, 15 payout may be made (1) partially according to each determination (e.g., 10% for a provisional designation and 90% for an official designation), (2) fully for each determination, and a refund is required for subsequent determinations that deem the earlier determinations to be erroneous. In an embodiment, one or more restrictions may be imposed on entities that 20 desire to make a bet. For example, the ability to make a bet (or other parameter of a bet) that designates a particular area may be based on the residence of the bettor, or other connection between the bettor and the area. For example, in such an embodiment a bettor might only be able to bet on an area if that bettor resides in that area, owns property in that area, is a taxpayer in that area, has paid certain or 25 all taxes (e.g., property taxes, income taxes) that are due in an area. Such a restriction may mean that, for example, (1) bets may not be made unless such a residence condition is demonstrated, (2) payouts from bets may not be paid unless such a residence condition is demonstrated, and / or (3) payouts from bets may be withdrawn or returned by the winner if such a residence 30 condition is not demonstrated. In an embodiment, a bettor receives an enhanced benefit for betting on an area if the bettor has a connection to the area. For example, a bettor may receive 90n WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 an increased a payout if that bettor resides in that area, owns property in that area, is a taxpayer in that area, and / or has paid taxes due for an area. In an embodiment, a bettor may designate his residence in an area, ownership of property in an area, payment of taxes in an area, and thereby permit 5 such information to be stored and / or processed. In an embodiment, a resident of an area (or bettor with another connection to an area) can register and receive an identifier that is encoded with data that indicates his area of residence (or other connection) or that indicates other area data. Then, a bet by that resident can indicate the residence address of the 10 purchaser, or indicate another connection of the bettor to the area. In an embodiment, a payout amount can be mailed to an address that is indicated in any of the foregoing manners, or in another manner. XIII. Purchasing Early 15 The time at which a bet is made can affect the payout for that bet. For example, making a bet earlier can provide an increased payout compared to an equivalent bet which was made later. Additionally or alternatively, another benefit can be provided to a ticket purchaser who makes a bet earlier. One type of benefit is that a lower commission, fee, tax etc. can be 20 deducted from the amount paid by the bettor. Thus, according to an embodiment, a larger amount of the money paid by the bettor is actually used for his purposes (e.g., to purchase more, to wager more), and thus there can be a higher potential payout to the bettor (in an embodiment where the amount of payout is based on the amount made available to wager). 25 In an embodiment, a bet made at an earlier time can be considered (e.g., for payout purposes, for there purposes) to be equivalent to a larger amount bet (e.g., entitled to a greater share of the pool upon winning). In an embodiment, a wager can be placed on a specific event. For example, a wager can be placed whether a phenomenon (e.g., a depression, other 30 phenomena) turns into another phenomenon (e.g., a hurricane). There can be a payout for this change (e.g., a depression becoming a hurricane) and / or a combination (e.g., a depression becoming a hurricane and that hurricane hits land). 21 WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 XIV. Deductions In an embodiment, an amount wagered or portions thereof can be considered deductible for purposes of calculating taxes due (e.g., federal tax, state 5 tax). Accordingly, a graphical user interface or other interface can be provided in which a bettor can request such information and be provided with such information. For example, the bettor (or other entity) can designate that the bet is being used as insurance or as another deductible expenditure. 10 At the end of the year (or at other times, such as upon request by customer) a statement can be generated (e.g., via a Web interface, via email, printed and mailed to the bettor) for the bettor. Such a statement can indicate, e.g., the bets made, the details of each bet, what was spent, what was paid out, what areas were designated, when the bets were made, and / or and other information. 15 XV. Other Bets In an embodiment, a bet may designate a plurality of different areas. For example, a bet may designate a center and a radius, thereby indicating a circular region, and areas encompassed by the circular region. Other shapes besides a 20 circular shape may be designated. In an embodiment, a bet can track or correspond to a prediction, opinion or expectation (e.g., that a certain area or areas will be hit by a hurricane) of another (e.g., an analyst, a meteorologist). In such an embodiment, an interface may be provided (e.g., in conjunction with a portion of an interface that displays a 25 prediction of another) which allows (e.g., through a single click of a button or other user action) the making of a bet that corresponds to the prediction. In an embodiment, a bet can designate the opposite of any event or bet described herein. For example, a bet may be made which yields a payout when an area or set of areas is not hit (e.g., by a hurricane, by any of a set of events during 30 the season). In an embodiment, a bet may designate a direction in addition to or instead of designating one or more areas. A bet may yield a payout based on whether, e.g.,

T,

WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 a hurricane moves in that direction. In an embodiment, a direction may be defined in terms of a range of directions (e.g., any direction between and including north and northeast). 5 XVI. Offers In an embodiment, a bettor may receive an offer which, if accepted, causes a particular bet to be made. For example, a graphical user interface (or an email communication or any other communication medium) can present an offer to a bettor who has made a bet (e.g., a bettor who has recently made a bet). Certain 10 details of the offer (e.g., features of an offered bet) which is provided to the bettor may be based on a bet made by the bettor, whether recently or otherwise. For example, if the bettor makes a bet that designates a first area, an offer can be provided to that bettor, in which the offer defines a second area that is selected (e.g., by the system) based on the first area (e.g., a second area is an area that is 15 adjacent to the first area). If the offer is accepted, and if the offer defines features of an offered bet, then a bet having those features can be made automatically for the bettor. Whether offers are provided to a bettor, and / or the features of such an offer, can be based on other bettors in an area (e.g., whether there are "sufficient" wager amounts 20 corresponding to an area) and / or other factors. XVII. Recommendations and Other Data In an embodiment, an interface (e.g., a graphical user interface provided via the web or via custom software) can display various data of interest to a bettor or 25 others. Any information or data described herein, as well as anything derivable from any information or data described herein, may be output (e.g., displayed). For example, information regarding bets made may be displayed in a format that describes aggregate bets (e.g., aggregate amounts wagered) in one or more areas. For example, a graphical user interface can display a geographic map (e.g., a map 30 of a portion of the United States) with corresponding textual or graphical (e.g., color) data regarding bets made on areas, amounts wagered on areas, etc.

WO 2008/039966 PCT/US2007/079827 In an embodiment, the graphical user interface can display data regarding bets of others, in which such bets are deemed "similar" to those of the bettor. For example, if a bettor makes a bet that designates area A, the graphical user interface can display information regarding the areas designated by bets of a set of bettors, 5 where that set of bettors had also made bets that designate area A, and the set of bettors had also made other bets that designate other areas. In an embodiment, the graphical user interface can display a set of areas not designated (or not frequently designated) by similar bettors. In an embodiment, a graphical user interface can display other areas that 10 correspond to areas selected by a bettor (e.g., an area designated by a bet that the bettor made or desires to make, an area selected or indicated by the bettor in another manner). For example, the graphical user interface may present opinions or recommendations of others. In an embodiment, one or more users or other entities may provide, based on a selected area, other areas that, e.g., should in their 15 opinion be designated by additional bets. In an embodiment, the graphical user interface allows bets to be made based on the displayed or output data. For example, if a map or other graphic indicates various areas, then clicking on or otherwise indicating an area can cause a bet that designates that area to be made or facilitated (e.g., steps are taken to make 20 such a bet, but one or more additional steps are required to make that bet). In an embodiment, a goal can be output (e.g., a "goal meter" can be displayed via a graphical user interface). The goal that is output can indicate (e.g., via a graphical or numerical display) any information, such as an estimated amount of money an area will need to raise if it is actually hit by a hurricane. The goal that 25 is output can also indicate progress towards that goal (e.g., money accumulated for the area via wagers, the amount received, due or allocated to the area by virtue of its allocated portions of a pool). The goal that is output can indicate goals of areas that are selected by the bettor (e.g., areas that have been designated by bets of the bettor). 30 9zM

Claims

1. A method comprising: receiving a plurality of bets, in which each bet defines 5 a respective amounted wagered, a respective area, and a respective weather-related event; displaying data that represents the plurality of bets; determining an outcome of a weather-related event; and 10 determine at least one winner based on the bets and the outcome.

2. The method of claim 1, in which displaying data that represents the plurality of bets comprises displaying the data in a graphical display representing a map. 15

3. The method of claim 1, further comprising: receiving data indicating a bet of the plurality of bets; receiving data indicating a residence; and verifying that a residence corresponds to the area defined by the indicated 20 bet.

4. The method of claim 1, further comprising: generating an offer to purchase an additional bet. 25

5. The method of claim 4, in which generating an offer to purchase a bet comprises: generating the offer based on a bet of the received plurality of bets.

6. An apparatus programmed to perform the method of claim 1. 30

7. A computer readable medium that includes a program operable to direct a computer to perform the method of claim 1. 2)5r