WO2022217829A1 - 一种传染病防控方法、装置、计算机设备及存储介质 - Google Patents
一种传染病防控方法、装置、计算机设备及存储介质 Download PDFInfo
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- G—PHYSICS
- G16—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR SPECIFIC APPLICATION FIELDS
- G16H—HEALTHCARE INFORMATICS, i.e. INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR THE HANDLING OR PROCESSING OF MEDICAL OR HEALTHCARE DATA
- G16H50/00—ICT specially adapted for medical diagnosis, medical simulation or medical data mining; ICT specially adapted for detecting, monitoring or modelling epidemics or pandemics
- G16H50/80—ICT specially adapted for medical diagnosis, medical simulation or medical data mining; ICT specially adapted for detecting, monitoring or modelling epidemics or pandemics for detecting, monitoring or modelling epidemics or pandemics, e.g. flu
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- G—PHYSICS
- G16—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR SPECIFIC APPLICATION FIELDS
- G16H—HEALTHCARE INFORMATICS, i.e. INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR THE HANDLING OR PROCESSING OF MEDICAL OR HEALTHCARE DATA
- G16H50/00—ICT specially adapted for medical diagnosis, medical simulation or medical data mining; ICT specially adapted for detecting, monitoring or modelling epidemics or pandemics
- G16H50/30—ICT specially adapted for medical diagnosis, medical simulation or medical data mining; ICT specially adapted for detecting, monitoring or modelling epidemics or pandemics for calculating health indices; for individual health risk assessment
Definitions
- Embodiments of the present invention relate to the technical field of disease control, and in particular, to a method, device, computer equipment, and storage medium for preventing and controlling infectious diseases.
- Infectious diseases are a class of diseases caused by various pathogens that can be transmitted from person to person, from animals to animals, or from humans to animals. Usually the disease is spread by direct contact with infected individuals, bodily fluids of infected persons, excrement of infected persons, and objects contaminated by infected persons, and can be transmitted through air, water, food, contact, soil, body fluids, and fecal-oral transmission.
- infectious diseases include contagiousness and epidemics, often with immunity after infection, and some infectious diseases are also seasonal or endemic.
- Common infectious diseases include chickenpox, mumps and influenza, etc. These diseases usually spread in a small or large area around after a case. If measures are not taken in time, it is likely to cause the continuous expansion of the infected area.
- Embodiments of the present invention provide a method, device, computer equipment and storage medium for preventing and controlling infectious diseases, so that users can know the required infectious disease risk value in time, so as to realize timely prevention and control of infectious diseases, and provide users with more intuitive valid data for reference.
- an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for preventing and controlling an infectious disease, the method comprising:
- an embodiment of the present invention also provides an infectious disease prevention and control device, the device comprising:
- the information acquisition module is used to acquire the information on the factors affecting the spread of infectious diseases in the preset area and the information of the confirmed users;
- a risk value prediction module configured to input the information on the infectious disease transmission influencing factors and the confirmed user information into the trained prediction model, and output the predicted infectious disease risk value of the preset area.
- an embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer device, the computer device comprising:
- processors one or more processors
- memory for storing one or more programs
- the one or more processors When the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the one or more processors implement the infectious disease prevention and control method provided by any embodiment of the present invention.
- an embodiment of the present invention further provides a computer-readable storage medium on which a computer program is stored, and when the program is executed by a processor, implements the infectious disease prevention and control method provided by any embodiment of the present invention.
- the embodiment of the present invention provides a method for preventing and controlling an infectious disease. First, obtain information on factors affecting the spread of infectious diseases and information on confirmed users in a preset area, and then input the information on factors affecting the spread of infectious diseases and information on confirmed users into a post-training prediction model. , so as to predict the infectious disease risk value of the preset area.
- the infectious disease prevention and control method provided by the embodiment of the present invention predicts the infectious disease risk value by taking into account the factors affecting the spread of infectious diseases in the required prediction area, and combining with the actual local incidence situation, and then using the trained prediction model to predict the infectious disease risk value.
- the intelligent prevention and control of infectious diseases is realized, without manual statistics and publicity, so that users can know the required infectious disease risk value in time, so as to prevent and control infectious diseases in a timely manner, and provide users with more intuitive and effective information.
- the risk data is used as a reference, so that users can decide travel plans at any time according to the current risk values of infectious diseases in various regions.
- Embodiment 1 is a flowchart of a method for preventing and controlling an infectious disease provided in Embodiment 1 of the present invention
- Embodiment 2 is a schematic structural diagram of an infectious disease prevention and control device provided in Embodiment 2 of the present invention.
- FIG. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a computer device according to Embodiment 3 of the present invention.
- FIG. 1 is a flowchart of a method for preventing and controlling an infectious disease according to Embodiment 1 of the present invention.
- This embodiment can be applied to the situation of predicting the currently required infectious disease risk value in any set area.
- the method can be executed by the infectious disease prevention and control device provided by the embodiment of the present invention, and the device can be implemented by hardware and/or It can be implemented by means of software or software, and can generally be integrated into computer equipment, which can be, but is not limited to, various personal computers, servers, notebook computers, smart phones, tablet computers, and the like. As shown in Figure 1, it specifically includes the following steps:
- the initial preset area may be an area determined by simply dividing in the form of a provincial level, a municipal level, or a district level, or an area determined by customizing according to requirements.
- the information on factors affecting the spread of infectious diseases is an indicator of various factors that may affect the spread of infectious diseases, and may specifically include one or more of temperature, humidity, particle concentration in the air, light intensity, and population density in a preset area.
- droplet transmission and air transmission account for a large proportion, and these two transmission routes are largely affected by the above factors.
- the pathogens when the air is relatively humid and/or the temperature is relatively suitable, the pathogens will float and survive in the air for a relatively long time, so that there is a greater probability of transmission, and in the case of a larger population density, the transmission of pathogens Efficiency will also be higher than in a sparsely populated situation. That is to say, when the information on the influencing factors of infectious disease transmission is different, the risk value of infectious diseases is also different. Therefore, the information on the influencing factors of infectious disease transmission needs to be taken into account and used as the input of the prediction model to predict the risk value of infectious diseases.
- Diagnosed user information can include any relevant information of all currently diagnosed users in the preset area. Every time the infectious disease risk value needs to be predicted, all confirmed users in the preset area can be determined first, and then the currently required diagnosis can be obtained.
- User Info Specifically, it can be implemented through crowdsourcing. Crowdsourcing refers to a method in which a company or institution outsources work tasks performed by employees in the past to a non-specific public network in a free and voluntary form. In this embodiment, it can be The confirmed users are determined among the users of the crowdsourcing application in the preset area, and the mobile terminals used by the confirmed users can obtain and upload the information of the confirmed users by themselves. Specifically, it can be uploaded to the server, and the server can obtain the information in the preset area All confirmed user information.
- the diagnosed user information includes: user contact data of the diagnosed user; correspondingly, acquiring the diagnosed user information in a preset area includes: communicating between mobile terminals used by the user based on Bluetooth broadcast to generate each user information.
- User contact record of the user if the user becomes a confirmed user, the user contact record uploaded by the mobile terminal used by the confirmed user is received as the user contact data of the confirmed user.
- the user contact data may be within a preset time range, such as user contact records within the last month, and the user contact records of the diagnosed user may include identity information, contact timestamps, and contact locations of other users who are in contact with the diagnosed user. Wait. Communication between users' mobile terminals can be based on Bluetooth broadcast, and a user contact record can be generated after each communication is completed.
- the Bluetooth broadcast Since the Bluetooth broadcast has a certain distance limit, it can be determined that users on both sides of the communication have entered a contact distance that may be infected when communication occurs.
- the user contact records generated by each user can be stored locally, and only when the user is diagnosed, upload the currently required user contact data of the diagnosed user to the server, while normal users do not need to upload data, so as to protect the privacy of users as much as possible .
- the latest user contact data can also be uploaded at preset time intervals, and the uploading will be stopped after the user recovers, so that the infectious disease risk value can be predicted based on the latest situation.
- communication between mobile terminals used by users based on Bluetooth broadcast to generate a user contact record of each user includes: sending a broadcast signal to the surroundings every preset time period through the mobile terminal, and every After completing the transmission, switch back to the receiving mode to receive the surrounding broadcast signals; after each receiving the surrounding broadcast signals through the mobile terminal, a user contact record is generated and saved locally.
- the communication process between mobile terminals may be as follows: each mobile terminal sends a broadcast signal to the surroundings every preset time period, and switches back to the receiving mode after each transmission is completed to receive broadcast signals sent by other surrounding mobile terminals.
- the mobile terminal sending the signal can broadcast the local user identifier as the user's user information through low-power bluetooth broadcast, and the mobile terminal receiving the signal can generate a contact time stamp and contact position when receiving the broadcast signal, and according to the received The received user information, the generated contact timestamp and contact location and other information generate a user contact record and save it locally.
- the confirmed user information also includes: user contact data of the confirmed user who is in close contact with the user; correspondingly, if the user becomes the confirmed user, the user contact record uploaded by the mobile terminal used by the confirmed user is received as the confirmed user's contact record.
- the user contact data it also includes: determining the close contact user according to the user contact data of the confirmed user; informing the close contact user to upload the user contact record as the user contact data of the close contact user.
- the user contact data of the close contact users with the confirmed users can also be taken into account. Since the onset of infectious diseases may have a certain lag, the monitoring of the close contact users can improve the predictability.
- close contact users can be defined as users who have contact with confirmed users for more than a preset number of times within a certain period of time. Specifically, after receiving the user contact data of the confirmed user, the close contact users of the confirmed user can be determined according to the user contact data, and then a notification can be sent to the close contact user, so that the close contact user uploads his user contact data.
- the diagnosed user information further includes: the number of diagnosed users in the preset area and/or the location of the diagnosed users.
- the server can determine the number of confirmed users according to the received confirmed user information, and the confirmed users can obtain their own locations and upload them while uploading user contact data each time, so that the server can obtain the confirmed diagnoses in the current preset area. User's location.
- the number and location distribution of confirmed users are also factors that increase the risk of infectious diseases, so that more accurate predictions of infectious disease risk values can be achieved according to the number and location distribution of confirmed users.
- the prediction model may be any model that can predict the risk value of infectious diseases, which is not limited in this embodiment. Specifically, a model with better effect may be selected according to the comparison result between the actual prediction result and the real situation. After obtaining the information on the factors influencing the spread of infectious diseases and the information on the confirmed users in the preset area, the information on the influencing factors on the spread of infectious diseases and the information on the confirmed users can be input into the trained prediction model to predict the infectious diseases in the preset area. value at risk. Before using the prediction model, the historical information on infectious disease transmission factors and confirmed user information can be used as the input of the prediction model, and the corresponding historical real infectious disease risk value, that is, the actual statistical probability of being infected, can be used as the input of the prediction model.
- the output is trained on the predictive model, thereby obtaining a trained predictive model.
- the infectious disease risk value can be sent to the mobile terminal used by each user, so that the user can know the probability of being infected in a certain area at any time, so as to decide whether to go to this area. region, which can provide users with more intuitive and effective data for travel and avoidance planning.
- the preset area can be more finely adjusted according to the infectious disease risk value and the distribution of confirmed users, so as to better reflect the infectious disease in an area. disease development.
- the method further includes: The infectious disease risk value is adjusted for the preset time period. Specifically, when the risk value of infectious diseases is high, the preset area can be determined as a high-risk area. At this time, it is necessary to monitor the high-risk area more closely, that is, the preset time can be shortened to ensure more complete user contact records. It is more sufficient, so as to avoid missing the contact of the confirmed user and make the prediction of the risk value of infectious diseases more accurate. When the infectious disease risk value is low, the preset area can be determined as a low-risk area, and the storage of user contact records and the communication between mobile terminals can be reduced by extending the preset time period, thereby reducing the corresponding waste of resources.
- the technical solution provided by the embodiment of the present invention first obtains the information on the influencing factors of infectious disease transmission and the information of the confirmed users in the preset area, and then inputs the information on the influencing factors of the infectious disease transmission and the information of the confirmed users into the post-training prediction model, so as to obtain the prediction result.
- the infectious disease risk value of the preset area By considering the factors affecting the spread of infectious diseases in the required prediction area, combined with the actual local incidence, and then using the trained prediction model to predict the risk value of infectious diseases, the intelligent prevention and control of infectious diseases is realized, and no manual work is required. Statistics and publicity allow users to know the required infectious disease risk value in time, so as to prevent and control infectious diseases in a timely manner, and provide users with more intuitive and effective risk data as a reference, so that users can The communicable disease risk value determines travel planning.
- FIG. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of an infectious disease prevention and control device provided in Embodiment 2 of the present invention.
- the device may be implemented by hardware and/or software, and may generally be integrated into computer equipment for executing any of the embodiments of the present invention.
- the computer equipment can be, but is not limited to, various personal computers, servers, notebook computers, smart phones, tablet computers, and the like.
- the device includes:
- the information acquisition module 21 is used to acquire the information on the influencing factors of the spread of infectious diseases and the information of the confirmed users in the preset area;
- the risk value prediction module 22 is used for inputting the information on the influencing factors of the spread of infectious diseases and the information of the confirmed users into the trained prediction model, and outputting the predicted infectious disease risk value of the preset area.
- the technical solution provided by the embodiment of the present invention first obtains the information on the influencing factors of infectious disease transmission and the information of the confirmed users in the preset area, and then inputs the information on the influencing factors of the infectious disease transmission and the information of the confirmed users into the post-training prediction model, so as to obtain the prediction result.
- the infectious disease risk value of the preset area By considering the factors affecting the spread of infectious diseases in the required prediction area, combined with the actual local incidence, and then using the trained prediction model to predict the risk value of infectious diseases, the intelligent prevention and control of infectious diseases is realized, and no manual work is required. Statistics and publicity allow users to know the required infectious disease risk value in time, so as to prevent and control infectious diseases in a timely manner, and provide users with more intuitive and effective risk data as a reference, so that users can The communicable disease risk value determines travel planning.
- the diagnosed user information includes: user contact data of the diagnosed user;
- the information acquisition module 21 includes:
- a user contact record generating unit configured to communicate between mobile terminals used by users based on Bluetooth broadcast, to generate a user contact record of each user;
- the user contact data uploading unit is configured to, if the user becomes a confirmed user, receive the user contact record uploaded by the mobile terminal used by the confirmed user as the user contact data of the confirmed user.
- the user contact record generating unit includes:
- the signal sending subunit is used to send a broadcast signal to the surrounding every preset time period through the mobile terminal, and switch back to the receiving mode after each transmission is completed to receive the surrounding broadcast signal;
- the user contact record generating subunit is used to generate a user contact record and save it locally after each time the mobile terminal receives surrounding broadcast signals.
- the infectious disease prevention and control device further includes:
- the preset duration adjustment module is used to input the information on the influencing factors of infectious disease transmission and the information of confirmed users into the trained prediction model, and output the predicted infectious disease risk value of the preset area, and adjust the preset according to the infectious disease risk value. time to adjust.
- the diagnosed user information further includes: user contact data of the close contact user of the diagnosed user;
- the information acquisition module 21 also includes:
- the close contact user determination unit is used to determine the close contact user according to the user contact data of the confirmed user after receiving the user contact record uploaded by the mobile terminal used by the confirmed user as the user contact data of the confirmed user if the user becomes the confirmed user;
- the notification uploading unit is used to notify the close contact user to upload the user contact record as the user contact data of the close contact user.
- the diagnosed user information further includes: the number of the diagnosed users and/or the location of the diagnosed users in the preset area.
- the information on factors affecting the spread of infectious diseases includes one or more of temperature, humidity, particle concentration in the air, light intensity, and population density in a preset area.
- the infectious disease prevention and control device provided by the embodiment of the present invention can execute the infectious disease prevention and control method provided by any embodiment of the present invention, and has functional modules and beneficial effects corresponding to the execution method.
- the included units and modules are only divided according to functional logic, but are not limited to the above division, as long as the corresponding functions can be realized;
- the specific names of the functional units are only for the convenience of distinguishing from each other, and are not used to limit the protection scope of the present invention.
- FIG. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a computer device according to Embodiment 3 of the present invention, and shows a block diagram of an exemplary computer device suitable for implementing the embodiments of the present invention.
- the computer device shown in FIG. 3 is only an example, and should not impose any limitation on the function and scope of use of the embodiments of the present invention.
- the computer device includes a processor 31, a memory 32, an input device 33 and an output device 34; the number of processors 31 in the computer device may be one or more, and one processor 31 is taken as an example in FIG. 3 , the processor 31 , the memory 32 , the input device 33 and the output device 34 in the computer equipment may be connected through a bus or other means, and the connection through a bus is taken as an example in FIG. 3 .
- the memory 32 can be used to store software programs, computer-executable programs, and modules, such as program instructions/modules corresponding to the infectious disease prevention and control method in the embodiment of the present invention (for example, an infectious disease prevention and control device).
- the processor 31 executes various functional applications and data processing of the computer equipment by running the software programs, instructions, and modules stored in the memory 32, ie, implements the above-mentioned infectious disease prevention and control method.
- the memory 32 may mainly include a storage program area and a storage data area, wherein the storage program area may store an operating system, an application program required for at least one function; the storage data area may store data created according to the use of the computer equipment, and the like. Additionally, memory 32 may include high-speed random access memory, and may also include non-volatile memory, such as at least one magnetic disk storage device, flash memory device, or other non-volatile solid state storage device. In some instances, memory 32 may further include memory located remotely from processor 31, which may be connected to the computer device through a network. Examples of such networks include, but are not limited to, the Internet, an intranet, a local area network, a mobile communication network, and combinations thereof.
- the input device 33 can be used to obtain information on factors affecting the spread of infectious diseases and confirmed user information in a preset area, and to generate key signal inputs related to user settings and function control of computer equipment, and the like.
- the output device 34 may include a display screen or the like, which may be used to display the predicted infectious disease risk value data to the user.
- Embodiment 4 of the present invention further provides a storage medium containing computer-executable instructions, where the computer-executable instructions are used to execute a method for preventing and controlling infectious diseases when executed by a computer processor, and the method includes:
- the storage medium may be any of various types of memory devices or storage devices.
- the term "storage medium” is intended to include: installation media such as CD-ROM, floppy disk or tape devices; computer system memory or random access memory such as DRAM, DDR RAM, SRAM, EDO RAM, Rambus RAM, etc.; non-volatile memory such as flash memory, magnetic media (eg, hard disk or optical storage); registers or other similar types of memory elements, and the like.
- the storage medium may also include other types of memory or combinations thereof.
- the storage medium may be located in the computer system in which the program is executed, or may be located in a different second computer system connected to the computer system through a network such as the Internet.
- the second computer system may provide program instructions to the computer for execution.
- storage medium may include two or more storage media that may reside in different locations (eg, in different computer systems connected by a network).
- the storage medium may store program instructions (eg, embodied as a computer program) executable by one or more processors.
- a storage medium containing computer-executable instructions provided by the embodiments of the present invention, the computer-executable instructions of which are not limited to the above method operations, and can also execute the infectious disease prevention and control method provided by any embodiment of the present invention. related operations in .
- a computer-readable signal medium may include a propagated data signal in baseband or as part of a carrier wave, with computer-readable program code embodied thereon. Such propagated data signals may take a variety of forms, including but not limited to electromagnetic signals, optical signals, or any suitable combination of the foregoing.
- a computer-readable signal medium can also be any computer-readable medium other than a computer-readable storage medium that can transmit, propagate, or transport the program for use by or in connection with the instruction execution system, apparatus, or device .
- Program code embodied on a computer readable medium may be transmitted using any suitable medium, including but not limited to wireless, wireline, optical fiber cable, RF, etc., or any suitable combination of the foregoing.
- the present invention can be realized by software and necessary general-purpose hardware, and of course can also be realized by hardware, but in many cases the former is a better embodiment .
- the technical solutions of the present invention can be embodied in the form of software products in essence or the parts that make contributions to the prior art, and the computer software products can be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, such as a floppy disk of a computer , Read-Only Memory (ROM), Random Access Memory (RAM), Flash Memory (FLASH), hard disk or CD, etc., including several instructions to make a computer device (which can be a personal computer) , server, or network device, etc.) to execute the methods described in the various embodiments of the present invention.
- ROM Read-Only Memory
- RAM Random Access Memory
- FLASH Flash Memory
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Abstract
本发明实施例公开了一种传染病防控方法、装置、计算机设备及存储介质。该方法包括：获取预设区域内的传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息；将传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息输入训练后的预测模型，并输出预测得到的预设区域的传染病风险值。本发明实施例所提供的技术方案，通过考虑所需预测区域内影响传染病传播的因素，并结合当地的实际发病情况，再利用训练好的预测模型对传染病风险值进行预测，实现了传染病防控的智能化，使得用户可以及时获知所需的传染病风险值，从而可以对传染病进行及时的防控，并且为用户提供了更加直观有效的风险数据作为参考，从而用户可以随时根据当前各地区的传染病风险值决定出行计划。
Description
本发明实施例涉及疾病控制技术领域，尤其涉及一种传染病防控方法、装置、计算机设备及存储介质。
传染病是由各种病原体引起的能在人与人，动物与动物或人与动物之间相互传播的一类疾病。通常这种疾病可借由直接接触已感染的个体、感染者的体液、感染者的排泄物以及感染者所污染到的物体进行传播，并可以通过空气、水源、食物、接触、土壤、体液以及粪口等方式传播。传染病的特点包括传染性和流行性，在感染后常有免疫性，有些传染病还具有季节性或地方性等等。常见的传染病有水痘、腮腺炎以及流行性感冒等，这类疾病通常会在出现一例后在周围小范围或大范围进行扩散，倘若不及时采取措施，很可能造成感染面积的不断扩大。
目前对于大多数传染病的防控手段中，通常是人为采取控制传染源和切断传播途径的方式加以控制，当发现感染者时，会对感染者进行隔离治疗，同时对感染者所在的活动区域进行密切观察，以及时切断新的感染源。但是这种防控手段存在一些弊端，通常在开始进行管控时，往往感染源已经与许多健康人群发生了接触，从而导致了管控的不及时，使得感染面积进一步扩大，而且人工的管理通常会导致消息的滞后，使得人们无法及时预见被传染的风险。
本发明实施例提供一种传染病防控方法、装置、计算机设备及存储介质，以使用户及时获知所需的传染病风险值，从而实现对传染病的及时防控，并为用户提供更加直观有效的数据作为参考。
第一方面，本发明实施例提供了一种传染病防控方法，该方法包括：
获取预设区域内的传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息；
将所述传染病传播影响因素信息和所述确诊用户信息输入训练后的预测模型，并输出预测得到的所述预设区域的传染病风险值。
第二方面，本发明实施例还提供了一种传染病防控装置，该装置包括：
信息获取模块，用于获取预设区域内的传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息；
风险值预测模块，用于将所述传染病传播影响因素信息和所述确诊用户信息输入训练后的预测模型，并输出预测得到的所述预设区域的传染病风险值。
第三方面，本发明实施例还提供了一种计算机设备，该计算机设备包括：
一个或多个处理器；
存储器，用于存储一个或多个程序；
当所述一个或多个程序被所述一个或多个处理器执行，使得所述一个或多个处理器实现本发明任意实施例所提供的传染病防控方法。
第四方面，本发明实施例还提供了一种计算机可读存储介质，其上存储有计算机程序，该程序被处理器执行时实现本发明任意实施例所提供的传染病防控方法。
本发明实施例提供了一种传染病防控方法，首先获取预设区域内的传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息，再将该传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息输入训练后预测模型，从而预测得到该预设区域的传染病风险值。本发明实施例所提供的传染病防控方法，通过考虑所需预测区域内影响传染病传播的因素，并结合当地的实际发病情况，再利用训练好的预测模型对传染病风险值进行预测，实现了传染病防控的智能化，无需人工进行统计和公示，使得用户可以及时获知所需的传染病风险值，从而可以对传染病进行及时的防控，并且为用户提供了更加直观有效的风险数据作为参考，从而用户可以随时根据当前各地区的传染病风险值决定出行计划。
图1为本发明实施例一提供的传染病防控方法的流程图；
图2为本发明实施例二提供的传染病防控装置的结构示意图；
图3为本发明实施例三提供的计算机设备的结构示意图。
下面结合附图和实施例对本发明作进一步的详细说明。可以理解的是，此处所描述的具体实施例仅仅用于解释本发明，而非对本发明的限定。另外还需要说明的是，为了便于描述，附图中仅示出了与本发明相关的部分而非全部结构。
在更加详细地讨论示例性实施例之前应当提到的是，一些示例性实施例被描述成作为流程图描绘的处理或方法。虽然流程图将各步骤描述成顺序的处理，但是其中的许多步骤可以被并行地、并发地或者同时实施。此外，各步骤的顺序可以被重新安排。当其操作完成时所述处理可以被终止，但是还可以具有未包括在附图中的附加步骤。所述处理可以对应于方法、函数、规程、子例程、子程序等等。
实施例一
图1为本发明实施例一提供的传染病防控方法的流程图。本实施例可适用于对任意设定区域内当前所需的传染病风险值进行预测的情况，该方法可以由本发明实施例所提供的传染病防控装置来执行，该装置可以由硬件和/或软件的方式来实现，一般可集成于计算机设备中，该计算机设备可以但不限于是各种个人计算机、服务器、笔记本电脑、智能手机、平板电脑等。如图1所示，具体包括如下步骤：
S11、获取预设区域内的传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息。
其中，初始的预设区域可以是简单按照省级、市级或区级等形式进行划分后所确定的区域，也可以是根据需求进行自定义所确定的区域。传染病传播影响因素信息为各种可能影响传染病传播的因素的指标，具体可以包括预设区域的温度、湿度、空气中颗粒物浓度、光照强度以及人口密度中的一种或多种。由于在传染病的传播途径中，飞沫传播和空气传播占了很大的比重，而这两种传播途径很大程度上会受到上述因素的影响。示例性的，当空气比较湿润和/或温度较为适宜时，病原体在空气中漂浮和生存的时间相对比较久，从而具有更大概率进行传播，而在人口密度较大的情况下，病原体的传播效率也会比人口稀疏的情况高。即当传染病传播影响因素信息不同时，传染病风险值也不尽相同，因此，需要将传染病传播影响因素信息考虑进来，并作为预测模型的输入以对传染病风险值进行预测。
确诊用户信息可以包括预设区域内当前所有确诊用户的任意相关信息，可以在每次需要对传染病风险值进行预测时，首先确定预设区域内的所有确诊用户，进而获取当前所需的确诊用户信息。具体的，可以通过众包的方式来实现，众包是指一个公司或机构把过去由员工执行的工作任务以自由自愿的形式外包给非特定的大众网络的方法，在本实施例中，可以在预设区域内各个众包应用程序使用者中确定确诊用户，确诊用户所使用的移动终端可以自行获取确诊用户信息并上传，具体可以是上传到服务器，则服务器即可获得预设区域内的所有确诊用户信息。
可选的，确诊用户信息包括：确诊用户的用户接触数据；相应的，获取预设区域内的确诊用户信息，包括：基于蓝牙广播在用户所使用的移动终端之间进行通信，以生成每个用户的用户接触记录；若用户成为确诊用户，则接收确诊用户所使用的移动终端上传的用户接触记录作为确诊用户的用户接触数据。具体的，用户接触数据可以是预设时间范围内，如最近一个月内的用户接触记录，确诊用户的用户接触记录可以包括与确诊用户接触的其他用户的身份信息、接触时间戳以及接触位置等等。在用户的移动终端之间可以基于蓝牙广播进行通信，并可以在每完成一次通信后，生成一次用户接触记录。由于蓝牙广播具有一定的距离限制，则可以在发生通信时认定通信双方用户进入了可能被感染的接触距离。各个用户生成的用户接触记录可以存储在本地，并仅当用户被确诊时，将当前所需的确诊用户的用户接触数据上传至服务器，而正常用户无需上传数据，从而尽可能的保护用户的隐私。当用户被确诊后，还可以每隔预设时间间隔上传一次当前最新的用户接触数据，并在用户痊愈后停止上传，以使传染病风险值可以根据最新的情况进行预测。
进一步可选的，基于蓝牙广播在用户所使用的移动终端之间进行通信，以生成每个用户的用户接触记录，包括：通过移动终端每隔预设时长向周围发送一次广播信号，并在每次完成发送后切换回接收模式以接收周围的广播信号；通过移动终端在每次接收到周围的广播信号后，生成一条用户接触记录并保存在本地。具体的，移动终端之间的通信过程可以是：每个移动终端每隔预设时长向周围发送一次广播信号，并在每次完成发送后切换回接收模式来接收周围其他移动终端发送的广播信号，发送信号的移动终端可以通过低功耗蓝牙广播发送本机的用户识别符作为该用户的用户信息，接收信号的移动终端可以在接收到广播信号时生成接触时间戳和接触位置，并根据接收到的用户信息、生成的接触时间戳和接触位置等信息生成一条用户接触记录并保存在本地。
进一步可选的，确诊用户信息还包括：确诊用户的密切接触用户的用户接触数据；相应的，在若用户成为确诊用户，则接收确诊用户所使用的移动终端上传的用户接触记录作为确诊用户的用户接触数据之后，还包括：根据确诊用户的用户接触数据确定密切接触用户；通知密切接触用户将用户接触记录作为密切接触用户的用户接触数据上传。具体的，除确诊用户外，还可以将与确诊用户的密切接触用户的用户接触数据考虑进来，由于传染病的发病可能具有一定的滞后性，通过对密切接触用户的监控，可以提高预见性，从而使得对传染病风险值的预测更加准确，对传染病的防控更加及时。其中，密切接触用户可以定义为在一定时间内与确诊用户的接触次数超过预设次数的用户。具体可以在接收到确诊用户的用户接触数据之后，根据该用户接触数据确定确诊用户的密切接触用户，然后可以向密切接触用户发送通知，从而使得密切接触用户将其用户接触数据上传。
进一步可选的，确诊用户信息还包括：预设区域内确诊用户的数量和/或确诊用户的位置。具体的，服务器可以根据接收到的确诊用户信息确定确诊用户的数量，确诊用户可以在每次上传用户接触数据的同时，获取自身的位置并上传，从而使得服务器可以获得当前预设区域内的确诊用户的位置。确诊用户的数量和位置分布情况也是对传染病风险值影响加大的因素，从而根据确诊用户的数量和位置分布情况可以实现对传染病风险值进行更加准确的预测。
S12、将传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息输入训练后的预测模型，并输出预测得到的预设区域的传染病风险值。
其中，预测模型可以是任意可实现对传染病风险值进行预测的模型，在本实施例中不进行限定，具体可以根据实际的预测结果与真实情况之间的对比结果选择效果更好的模型。在获取到预设区域内的传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息之后，即可将该传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息输入训练后的预测模型，以预测得到预设区域的传染病风险值。在使用该预测模型之前，可以将历史的传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息作为预测模型的输入，并将对应的历史真实传染病风险值，即实际统计的被感染的概率作为预测模型的输出对该预测模型进行训练，从而得到训练后的预测模型。在得到预设区域的传染病风险值之后，可以将该传染病风险值发送到每个用户所使用的移动终端，从而用户可以随时获知当前在某地区会被感染的概率，从而决定是否前往该地区，即可以为用户的出行和趋避规划提供了更加直观和有效的数据。可选的，在得到预设区域的传染病风险值之后，还可以根据传染病风险值以及确诊用户的分布情况对预设区域进行更精细的调整，从而可以更好的体现一个区域内的传染病发展情况。
在上述技术方案的基础上，可选的，在将传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息输入训练后的预测模型，并输出预测得到的预设区域的传染病风险值之后，还包括：根据传染病风险值对预设时长进行调整。具体的，当传染病风险值较高时，可以将预设区域确定为高风险地区，此时需要对高风险地区进行更加密切的监控，即可以通过缩短预设时长来保证用户接触记录更完整更充足，从而避免漏查确诊用户的接触用户的情况，使得对传染病风险值的预测更加准确。而当传染病风险值较低时，可以将预设区域确定为低风险地区，则可以通过延长预设时长来减少用户接触记录的存储以及移动终端之间的通信，从而减少相应的资源浪费。
本发明实施例所提供的技术方案，首先获取预设区域内的传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息，再将该传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息输入训练后预测模型，从而预测得到该预设区域的传染病风险值。通过考虑所需预测区域内影响传染病传播的因素，并结合当地的实际发病情况，再利用训练好的预测模型对传染病风险值进行预测，实现了传染病防控的智能化，无需人工进行统计和公示，使得用户可以及时获知所需的传染病风险值，从而可以对传染病进行及时的防控，并且为用户提供了更加直观有效的风险数据作为参考，从而用户可以随时根据当前各地区的传染病风险值决定出行计划。
实施例二
图2为本发明实施例二提供的传染病防控装置的结构示意图，该装置可以由硬件和/或软件的方式来实现，一般可集成于计算机设备中，用于执行本发明任意实施例所提供的传染病防控方法，该计算机设备可以但不限于是各种个人计算机、服务器、笔记本电脑、智能手机、平板电脑等。如图2所示，该装置包括：
信息获取模块21，用于获取预设区域内的传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息；
风险值预测模块22，用于将传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息输入训练后的预测模型，并输出预测得到的预设区域的传染病风险值。
本发明实施例所提供的技术方案，首先获取预设区域内的传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息，再将该传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息输入训练后预测模型，从而预测得到该预设区域的传染病风险值。通过考虑所需预测区域内影响传染病传播的因素，并结合当地的实际发病情况，再利用训练好的预测模型对传染病风险值进行预测，实现了传染病防控的智能化，无需人工进行统计和公示，使得用户可以及时获知所需的传染病风险值，从而可以对传染病进行及时的防控，并且为用户提供了更加直观有效的风险数据作为参考，从而用户可以随时根据当前各地区的传染病风险值决定出行计划。
在上述技术方案的基础上，可选的，确诊用户信息包括：确诊用户的用户接触数据；
相应的，信息获取模块21，包括：
用户接触记录生成单元，用于基于蓝牙广播在用户所使用的移动终端之间进行通信，以生成每个用户的用户接触记录；
用户接触数据上传单元，用于若用户成为确诊用户，则接收确诊用户所使用的移动终端上传的用户接触记录作为确诊用户的用户接触数据。
在上述技术方案的基础上，可选的，用户接触记录生成单元，包括：
信号发送子单元，用于通过移动终端每隔预设时长向周围发送一次广播信号，并在每次完成发送后切换回接收模式以接收周围的广播信号；
用户接触记录生成子单元，用于通过移动终端在每次接收到周围的广播信号后，生成一条用户接触记录并保存在本地。
在上述技术方案的基础上，可选的，该传染病防控装置，还包括：
预设时长调整模块，用于在将传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息输入训练后的预测模型，并输出预测得到的预设区域的传染病风险值之后，根据传染病风险值对预设时长进行调整。
在上述技术方案的基础上，可选的，确诊用户信息还包括：确诊用户的密切接触用户的用户接触数据；
相应的，信息获取模块21，还包括：
密切接触用户确定单元，用于在若用户成为确诊用户，则接收确诊用户所使用的移动终端上传的用户接触记录作为确诊用户的用户接触数据之后，根据确诊用户的用户接触数据确定密切接触用户；
通知上传单元，用于通知密切接触用户将用户接触记录作为密切接触用户的用户接触数据上传。
在上述技术方案的基础上，可选的，确诊用户信息还包括：预设区域内确诊用户的数量和/或确诊用户的位置。
在上述技术方案的基础上，可选的，传染病传播影响因素信息包括预设区域的温度、湿度、空气中颗粒物浓度、光照强度以及人口密度中的一种或多种。
本发明实施例所提供的传染病防控装置可执行本发明任意实施例所提供的传染病防控方法，具备执行方法相应的功能模块和有益效果。
值得注意的是，在上述传染病防控装置的实施例中，所包括的各个单元和模块只是按照功能逻辑进行划分的，但并不局限于上述的划分，只要能够实现相应的功能即可；另外，各功能单元的具体名称也只是为了便于相互区分，并不用于限制本发明的保护范围。
实施例三
图3为本发明实施例三提供的计算机设备的结构示意图，示出了适于用来实现本发明实施方式的示例性计算机设备的框图。图3显示的计算机设备仅仅是一个示例，不应对本发明实施例的功能和使用范围带来任何限制。如图3所示，该计算机设备包括处理器31、存储器32、输入装置33及输出装置34；计算机设备中处理器31的数量可以是一个或多个，图3中以一个处理器31为例，计算机设备中的处理器31、存储器32、输入装置33及输出装置34可以通过总线或其他方式连接，图3中以通过总线连接为例。
存储器32作为一种计算机可读存储介质，可用于存储软件程序、计算机可执行程序以及模块，如本发明实施例中的传染病防控方法对应的程序指令/模块（例如，传染病防控装置中的信息获取模块21及风险值预测模块22）。处理器31通过运行存储在存储器32中的软件程序、指令以及模块，从而执行计算机设备的各种功能应用以及数据处理，即实现上述的传染病防控方法。
存储器32可主要包括存储程序区和存储数据区，其中，存储程序区可存储操作系统、至少一个功能所需的应用程序；存储数据区可存储根据计算机设备的使用所创建的数据等。此外，存储器32可以包括高速随机存取存储器，还可以包括非易失性存储器，例如至少一个磁盘存储器件、闪存器件、或其他非易失性固态存储器件。在一些实例中，存储器32可进一步包括相对于处理器31远程设置的存储器，这些远程存储器可以通过网络连接至计算机设备。上述网络的实例包括但不限于互联网、企业内部网、局域网、移动通信网及其组合。
输入装置33可用于获取预设区域内的传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息以及产生与计算机设备的用户设置和功能控制有关的键信号输入等。输出装置34可包括显示屏等设备，可用于向用户展示预测得到的传染病风险值数据。
实施例四
本发明实施例四还提供一种包含计算机可执行指令的存储介质，该计算机可执行指令在由计算机处理器执行时用于执行一种传染病防控方法，该方法包括：
获取预设区域内的传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息；
将传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息输入训练后的预测模型，并输出预测得到的预设区域的传染病风险值。
存储介质可以是任何的各种类型的存储器设备或存储设备。术语“存储介质”旨在包括：安装介质，例如CD-ROM、软盘或磁带装置；计算机系统存储器或随机存取存储器，诸如DRAM、DDR
RAM、SRAM、EDO RAM，兰巴斯(Rambus)RAM等；非易失性存储器，诸如闪存、磁介质(例如硬盘或光存储)；寄存器或其它相似类型的存储器元件等。存储介质可以还包括其它类型的存储器或其组合。另外，存储介质可以位于程序在其中被执行的计算机系统中，或者可以位于不同的第二计算机系统中，第二计算机系统通过网络(诸如因特网)连接到计算机系统。第二计算机系统可以提供程序指令给计算机用于执行。术语“存储介质”可以包括可以驻留在不同位置中(例如在通过网络连接的不同计算机系统中)的两个或更多存储介质。存储介质可以存储可由一个或多个处理器执行的程序指令(例如具体实现为计算机程序)。
当然，本发明实施例所提供的一种包含计算机可执行指令的存储介质，其计算机可执行指令不限于如上所述的方法操作，还可以执行本发明任意实施例所提供的传染病防控方法中的相关操作。
计算机可读的信号介质可以包括在基带中或者作为载波一部分传播的数据信号，其中承载了计算机可读的程序代码。这种传播的数据信号可以采用多种形式，包括但不限于电磁信号、光信号或上述的任意合适的组合。计算机可读的信号介质还可以是计算机可读存储介质以外的任何计算机可读介质，该计算机可读介质可以发送、传播或者传输用于由指令执行系统、装置或者器件使用或者与其结合使用的程序。
计算机可读介质上包含的程序代码可以用任何适当的介质传输，包括但不限于无线、电线、光缆、RF等等，或者上述的任意合适的组合。
通过以上关于实施方式的描述，所属领域的技术人员可以清楚地了解到，本发明可借助软件及必需的通用硬件来实现，当然也可以通过硬件实现，但很多情况下前者是更佳的实施方式。基于这样的理解，本发明的技术方案本质上或者说对现有技术做出贡献的部分可以以软件产品的形式体现出来，该计算机软件产品可以存储在计算机可读存储介质中，如计算机的软盘、只读存储器（Read-Only Memory, ROM）、随机存取存储器（Random Access Memory, RAM）、闪存（FLASH）、硬盘或光盘等，包括若干指令用以使得一台计算机设备（可以是个人计算机，服务器，或者网络设备等）执行本发明各个实施例所述的方法。
注意，上述仅为本发明的较佳实施例及所运用技术原理。本领域技术人员会理解，本发明不限于这里所述的特定实施例，对本领域技术人员来说能够进行各种明显的变化、重新调整和替代而不会脱离本发明的保护范围。因此，虽然通过以上实施例对本发明进行了较为详细的说明，但是本发明不仅仅限于以上实施例，在不脱离本发明构思的情况下，还可以包括更多其他等效实施例，而本发明的范围由所附的权利要求范围决定。
Claims (10)
- 一种传染病防控方法，其特征在于，包括：获取预设区域内的传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息；将所述传染病传播影响因素信息和所述确诊用户信息输入训练后的预测模型，并输出预测得到的所述预设区域的传染病风险值。
- 根据权利要求1所述的传染病防控方法，其特征在于，所述确诊用户信息包括：确诊用户的用户接触数据；相应的，所述获取预设区域内的确诊用户信息，包括：基于蓝牙广播在用户所使用的移动终端之间进行通信，以生成每个用户的用户接触记录；若用户成为所述确诊用户，则接收所述确诊用户所使用的移动终端上传的用户接触记录作为所述确诊用户的用户接触数据。
- 根据权利要求2所述的传染病防控方法，其特征在于，所述基于蓝牙广播在用户所使用的移动终端之间进行通信，以生成每个用户的用户接触记录，包括：通过移动终端每隔预设时长向周围发送一次广播信号，并在每次完成发送后切换回接收模式以接收周围的广播信号；通过移动终端在每次接收到周围的广播信号后，生成一条用户接触记录并保存在本地。
- 根据权利要求3所述的传染病防控方法，其特征在于，在所述将所述传染病传播影响因素信息和所述确诊用户信息输入训练后的预测模型，并输出预测得到的所述预设区域的传染病风险值之后，还包括：根据所述传染病风险值对所述预设时长进行调整。
- 根据权利要求2所述的传染病防控方法，其特征在于，所述确诊用户信息还包括：确诊用户的密切接触用户的用户接触数据；相应的，在所述若用户成为所述确诊用户，则接收所述确诊用户所使用的移动终端上传的用户接触记录作为所述确诊用户的用户接触数据之后，还包括：根据所述确诊用户的用户接触数据确定所述密切接触用户；通知所述密切接触用户将用户接触记录作为所述密切接触用户的用户接触数据上传。
- 根据权利要求2所述的传染病防控方法，其特征在于，所述确诊用户信息还包括：所述预设区域内所述确诊用户的数量和/或所述确诊用户的位置。
- 根据权利要求1所述的传染病防控方法，其特征在于，所述传染病传播影响因素信息包括所述预设区域的温度、湿度、空气中颗粒物浓度、光照强度以及人口密度中的一种或多种。
- 一种传染病防控装置，其特征在于，包括：信息获取模块，用于获取预设区域内的传染病传播影响因素信息和确诊用户信息；风险值预测模块，用于将所述传染病传播影响因素信息和所述确诊用户信息输入训练后的预测模型，并输出预测得到的所述预设区域的传染病风险值。
- 一种计算机设备，其特征在于，包括：一个或多个处理器；存储器，用于存储一个或多个程序；当所述一个或多个程序被所述一个或多个处理器执行，使得所述一个或多个处理器实现如权利要求1-7中任一所述的传染病防控方法。
- 一种计算机可读存储介质，其上存储有计算机程序，其特征在于，该程序被处理器执行时实现如权利要求1-7中任一所述的传染病防控方法。
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| CN116721781B (zh) * | 2023-07-11 | 2024-08-20 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 | 虫媒传染病传播风险的预测方法、装置、电子设备及介质 |
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