WO2022118496A1 - Facility consolidation plan creation support system - Google Patents

Abstract

A facility consolidation plan creation support system according to the present invention comprises: an abolition target facility selection unit (21) that determines an abolition candidate facility from among facilities of a power system (200); a system measure selection unit (22) that determines a system measure for suppressing an influence due to abolition of a facility; a risk calculation unit (23) that calculates a risk caused by operating the power system (200) when the abolition candidate facility is abolished and the system measure is implemented; a cost calculation unit (24) that calculates a cost caused by operating the power system (200) when the abolition candidate facility is abolished and the system measure is implemented; and an abolition indicator database DB (5) that stores an abolition indicator and an abolition determination criterion. The abolition target facility selection unit (21) determines whether or not the value of the abolition indicator acquired by calculating power flow for the configuration of the power system (200) satisfies the abolition determination criterion, and determines the abolition candidate facility.

Description

Equipment consolidation plan creation support system

The present invention relates to a system that supports the creation of an equipment consolidation plan for an electric power system.

The power equipment included in the power system needs to be newly installed or abolished according to the power demand and industrial form. Equipment whose demand is declining and its utilization rate is declining will incur costs such as operating costs and labor costs related to the equipment even if it remains, so abolition will be considered. When the equipment is abolished, the functions and transmission capacity of the abolished equipment are changed by changing the connection relationship of the power system in order to maintain the power supply to the consumers connected below the abolished equipment. Needs to be replaced with existing equipment. In general, abolishing power equipment makes it impossible to transmit power to consumers connected below the abolished equipment, reduces the stability of the entire power system, and reduces the ability to maintain power supply in the event of a system accident. It causes adverse effects such as power transmission.

The equipment abolition / change plan to reduce costs while minimizing the impact of the abolition of electric power equipment is called the equipment consolidation plan. As a method of creating a facility consolidation plan, there is known a method of extracting equipment that can satisfy the operational restrictions of the system even if it is abolished as equipment to be abolished. Patent Document 1 discloses an example of a system that assists in creating a facility consolidation plan in this way.

Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2020-67941

In the system plan formulation support system described in Patent Document 1, it is determined whether or not a certain equipment change plan satisfies the restrictions on system operation, and if the restrictions are satisfied, the equipment change plan is added to the equipment plan. However, in the presence of a huge amount of equipment in the power system, it takes a lot of time and effort to extract equipment that is highly cost-effective and create a equipment change plan. In addition, if the power system changes due to the introduction of renewable energy, etc., the predictability of the grid flow will decrease, and it is necessary to evaluate the long-term effects and effects caused by the consolidation and abolition of equipment. In order to create a comprehensive equipment change plan by considering the combination of consolidation and abolition of all equipment and the expected configuration of the future system, the search range is enormous with the conventional technology, and it takes time to obtain a solution. There is a problem of this. In addition, when creating a facility change plan, it is desirable to consider system measures, which are measures to mitigate or avoid the adverse effects of equipment abolition.

An object of the present invention is to provide an equipment consolidation plan creation support system that can obtain equipment that can be abolished in an electric power system and system measures associated with the abolition of equipment together with the risks and costs required for equipment abolition and system measures. That is.

The equipment consolidation / abolition plan creation support system according to the present invention is a system that is a measure to suppress the influence of the abolition of the equipment and the equipment selection unit to be abolished, which seeks the equipment that is a candidate for abolition from the equipment that constitutes the power system. The system countermeasure selection unit that obtains countermeasures from the created system countermeasures or the predetermined system countermeasures and the abolition candidate equipment requested by the abolition target equipment selection department are abolished, and the system countermeasure selection unit When the requested system countermeasures are executed, the risk calculation unit for calculating the risk generated by operating the power system and the abolition candidate equipment requested by the abolition target equipment selection unit are abolished, and the system countermeasure selection is performed. Data on the cost calculation unit that calculates the cost generated by operating the power system when the system measures requested by the department are executed, and the abolition index and abolition judgment criteria used when finding the equipment that is a candidate for abolition. It has an obsolete index database to store. The abolition target equipment selection unit determines whether or not the value of the abolition index obtained by performing a power flow calculation for the configuration of the power system satisfies the abolition determination criteria, and obtains the abolition candidate equipment.

According to the present invention, it is provided to provide an equipment consolidation plan creation support system that can obtain equipment that can be abolished in an electric power system and system measures associated with the abolition of equipment together with the risks and costs required for equipment abolition and system measures. Can be done.

It is a figure which shows the example of the hardware composition of the creation support system of the equipment consolidation plan by Example 1 of this invention. It is a figure which shows the example of the functional structure of the creation support system of the equipment consolidation plan by Example 1. FIG. It is a figure which shows the example of the power-source composition plan data stored in the power-source composition plan database. It is a figure which shows the example of the demand forecast data stored in the demand forecast database. It is a figure which shows the example of the system composition data stored in the system composition database. It is a figure which shows the example of the operation history data stored in the operation history database. It is a figure which shows the example of the obsolete index data stored in the obsolete index database. It is a figure which shows the example of the geographic information data stored in the geographic information database. It is a figure which shows the example of the cost information data stored in a cost information database. It is a flowchart which shows the process of the abolition target equipment selection part in Example 1. FIG. It is a flowchart which shows the process of the system measure selection part in Example 1. FIG. It is a figure which shows the example of the functional structure of the creation support system of the equipment consolidation plan by Example 2 of this invention. It is a figure which shows the example of the measure plan data stored in the measure plan database. It is a flowchart which shows the process of the abolition target equipment selection part in Example 2. It is a flowchart which shows the process of the system measure selection part in Example 2.

Hereinafter, the equipment consolidation / abolition plan creation support system according to the embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings. The equipment consolidation / abolition plan creation support system according to the first embodiment of the present invention extracts candidate equipment for abolition and candidates for system measures associated with the abolition of the equipment, and calculates the risks and costs required for the abolition of the equipment and the system measures. The equipment consolidation / abolition plan creation support system according to the second embodiment of the present invention can relax the restrictions when extracting equipment that is a candidate for abolition, so that it is possible to prevent excessive cost from being applied to the risk, and the cost can be reduced. Can be suppressed.

FIG. 1 is a diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of the equipment consolidation / abolition plan creation support system 10 according to the first embodiment of the present invention. The equipment consolidation / abolition plan creation support system 10 is generally composed of a computer, and includes a display unit 11, an input unit 12 such as a keyboard and a mouse, a communication unit 13, a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 14, a memory 15, and a database 41. To prepare for. These are connected to each other by a bus line 43.

The display unit 11 can be configured by any display device or output device. For example, the display unit 11 can be configured by using at least one of a display device, a printer device, and an audio output device.

The input unit 12 can be configured by any input device. For example, the input unit 12 can be configured by using at least one of a pointing device such as a keyboard and a mouse, a touch panel, and a voice instruction device.

The communication unit 13 includes a circuit and a communication protocol for the system 10 to connect to the communication network.

The CPU 14 may be configured by one or a plurality of semiconductor chips, or may be configured by using a computer device such as a calculation server.

The memory 15 is composed of, for example, a RAM (RandomAccessMemory), and stores a computer program or data (for example, calculation result data and image data) necessary for processing performed by the system 10. The screen data stored in the memory 15 is sent to the display unit 11 and displayed.

The database 41 stores the configuration (system configuration) of the power system 200. The equipment consolidation / abolition plan creation support system 10 according to this embodiment uses the grid configuration stored in the database 41 to support the creation of a consolidation / abolition plan (equipment consolidation / abolition plan) for electric power equipment constituting the power system 200.

FIG. 1 shows an example of the configuration of the power system 200 in which the system 10 according to the present embodiment supports the creation of the equipment consolidation plan. The power system 200 includes a power source 310 (310a, 310b), a photovoltaic power generation power source 311 and a bus 320 (320a, 320b, 320c, 320d, 320e, 320f), and a transmission line 330 (330a, 330b, 330c, 330d, 330e, 330f). ), And a load 360 (360a, 360b, 360c) as the main equipment. These electric power facilities are circuit components of the electric power system 200.

FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of the functional configuration of the equipment consolidation / abolition plan creation support system 10 according to this embodiment. The user of the system 10 is, for example, a power transmission and distribution business operator or a power distribution system manager.

The equipment consolidation plan creation support system 10 includes a power supply configuration plan database DB1, a demand forecast database DB2, a grid configuration database DB3, an operation history database DB4, an abolition index database DB5, a geographic information database DB6, a cost information database DB7, and equipment selection for abolition. A unit 21, a system countermeasure selection unit 22, a risk calculation unit 23, a cost calculation unit 24, an output unit 25, and a display unit 11 are provided.

The power supply configuration plan database DB1 stores power supply configuration plan data which is data about the power supply configuration plan of the power system 200 in the present and a predetermined future period.

The demand forecast database DB2 stores demand forecast data, which is data on forecasting power demand for each load in a predetermined future period.

The grid configuration database DB3 stores the grid configuration data, which is data about the current equipment configuration and the future equipment configuration determined by the equipment plan, for the power system 200.

The operation history database DB 4 stores operation history data, which is data about the history of equipment operation (for example, equipment operation and power flow rate) in the past predetermined period for each equipment included in the power system 200. ..

The abolition index database DB5 stores the abolition index data which is the data about the index used when the equipment of the abolition candidate is requested. The abolition index data includes data on the abolition index used when seeking equipment that is a candidate for abolition and data on equipment that cannot be abolished and cannot be abolished. Examples of non-decommissionable equipment include equipment that is directly connected to the hospital.

The geographic information database DB6 stores geographic information data, which is data on predicted values of demographics for each region, industrial forms, and production indexes. Geographic information data can be collected from information systems such as the Cabinet Office's Regional Economic Analysis System (RESAS).

The cost information database DB7 stores cost information data which is data about the cost for each facility. The cost for each equipment includes, for example, operating costs such as depreciation, fixed asset depreciation, and repair costs, and restoration costs in the event of an accident in the equipment.

The equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished considers the influence on the system configuration when the equipment is abolished by using the data stored in the databases DB1-DB6 to select the equipment that is a candidate for abolition from the equipment constituting the power system 200. And ask.

The system countermeasure selection unit 22 requests system countermeasures for the system configuration when the equipment of the abolition candidate requested by the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished is abolished. System measures are measures to mitigate or avoid the adverse effects of equipment abolition and to suppress these adverse effects.

The risk calculation unit 23 determines the risk caused by operating the power system 200 when the equipment of the abolition candidate requested by the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished is abolished and the system countermeasures requested by the system countermeasure selection unit 22 are executed. , Calculate in the period including the predetermined future period.

The cost calculation unit 24 calculates the cost generated by operating the power system 200 when the equipment of the abolition candidate requested by the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished is abolished and the system countermeasures requested by the system countermeasure selection unit 22 are executed. , The cost information data stored in the cost information database DB7 is used for calculation in a period including a predetermined future period.

The output unit 25 outputs the risk obtained by the risk calculation unit 23 and the cost obtained by the cost calculation unit 24 to the database 41.

The display unit 11 displays the risk obtained by the risk calculation unit 23 and the cost obtained by the cost calculation unit 24. Further, the display unit 11 may display the results obtained by the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished and the system countermeasure selection unit 22.

In the grid configuration database DB3, when the equipment of the abolition candidate requested by the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished is abolished, the system countermeasures requested by the grid countermeasure selection unit 22 are executed, and the future configuration of the power system 200 is updated. , The system configuration data may be updated.

The databases DB1-DB7 may store the data obtained by a system different from the system 10, or may be provided in a system different from the system 10.

FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an example of the power supply configuration plan data D101 stored in the power supply configuration plan database DB1. The power supply configuration plan data D101 can be predetermined by the user of the system 10. The power supply configuration plan data D101 includes data such as a power supply whose configuration changes from the present in the power system 200, a type of power supply, a change in equipment that occurs in the power supply, a time when the equipment is changed, and the content of the change in equipment. In FIG. 3, as an example, the power source 310a for thermal power generation is scheduled to be expanded in 2030, and the capacity is planned to be increased by 100 MW.

FIG. 4 is a diagram showing an example of the demand forecast data D201 stored in the demand forecast database DB2. The demand forecast data D201 can be predetermined by the user of the system 10. The demand forecast data D201 includes data for forecasting the power demand at each load at a certain time point. The demand forecast data D201 stores data with a predetermined time particle size (time interval) over a predetermined period. FIG. 4 shows, as an example, a forecast of power demand at loads 360a, 360b, and 360c. In FIG. 4, pu is a unit method symbol.

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of the system configuration data D301 stored in the system configuration database DB3. The system configuration data D301 includes data such as the capacity and impedance of the equipment as data on the configuration of the equipment at a certain point in time of the power system 200. The system configuration data D301 stores data at a predetermined time particle size over a predetermined period. FIG. 5 shows the configuration of the transmission lines 330a-330f as an example. In the system configuration data D301, not only the transmission lines 330a-330f but also the data regarding the configurations of all the facilities of the power system 200 including the transformer and the phase adjuster are stored. Further, the system configuration data D301 may include the connection relationship in the power system 200 of the equipment. In FIG. 5, j is an imaginary symbol and pu is a unit symbol.

FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of the operation history data D401 stored in the operation history database DB4. The operation history data D401 includes data such as a history of performed operations and a history of past electrical operations for each facility of the power system 200. As an example, FIG. 6 shows the operation history of the transmission line 330a, which was newly installed in 2010 and has an average annual utilization rate of 20% in 2010. The operation history data D401 may include data such as a utilization rate in a predetermined time granularity in the past.

FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of the abolition index data D501 stored in the abolition index database DB5. The abolition index data D501 includes data on the abolition index used when seeking equipment that is a candidate for abolition, and data on equipment that cannot be abolished and cannot be abolished. The abolition index data D501 can be predetermined by the user of the system 10. Further, the abolition index data D501 may be automatically created by the system 10 and predetermined.

The abolition index includes the items used when requesting the equipment of the abolition candidate and the abolition judgment criteria set for each item. The abolition judgment criteria are the threshold value and the threshold value range set for each item. In the following, the threshold range may be included in the threshold value for description. Items used when finding equipment that is a candidate for discontinuation include, for example, reliability indicating deviation from the standard value, equipment utilization rate, and degree of impact in the event of an accident. The reliability is set for the configuration and equipment of the power system 200 with respect to values related to electricity such as voltage, frequency, and electric energy, and an arbitrarily determined index such as KPI (Key Performance Indicator) can be used. can. FIG. 7 shows the voltage reliability set for the voltage value as an example of the reliability. Further, FIG. 7 shows voltage fluctuations and the amount of power failure (scale of power failure) as an example of the degree of influence at the time of an accident.

Equipment that cannot be discontinued includes, for example, equipment that is directly connected to a hospital and equipment that is connected to an operating factory.

FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of the geographic information data D601 stored in the geographic information database DB6. Geographical information data D601 includes data on demographic forecasts, production indices, and industrial types for the planned area. In addition, the geographic information data D601 also includes the equipment existing in each area and the connection relationship in the power system 200 of these equipments. As an example, FIG. 8 shows data on future population forecasts, gross domestic product (GDP), industrial form, and existing equipment for the area specified by the target area ID. The geographic information data D601 can be predetermined by the user of the system 10 by using the data of a public information collection system such as the regional economic analysis system (RESAS) of the Cabinet Office.

FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an example of cost information data stored in the cost information database DB7. The cost information data can be predetermined by the user of the system 10. The cost information data includes, for example, the operation cost data D701 and the accident cost data D702. As shown in FIG. 9, for example, the operation cost data D701 includes depreciation cost and asset depreciation cost, which are operation costs for each facility, and data for a predetermined period is stored. The accident cost data D702 includes, for example, as shown in FIG. 9, the estimated amount of restoration cost for each equipment when an accident occurs in the equipment.

The equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished inputs the data stored in the databases DB1-DB6, calculates the tidal current with respect to the system configuration obtained from the input data, considering the effect of the equipment being abolished, and abolishes it. The index data D501 is used to obtain the equipment of the abolition candidate, and the obtained equipment of the abolition candidate is output to the system countermeasure selection unit 22. The equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished calculates the power flow and obtains the state in which electric power flows (including voltage and electric power in each equipment), reliability, and equipment utilization rate. The abolition target equipment selection unit 21 can use an existing method such as an AC method or Optimal Power Flow (hereinafter referred to as “OPF”) as a method for calculating the tidal current. The equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished searches from all the equipment included in the system configuration and searches for equipment that is a candidate for abolition.

The system countermeasure selection unit 22 uses the equipment of the abolition candidate and the effect of the abolition of the equipment of the abolition candidate requested by the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished, and describes the system configuration when the equipment of the abolition candidate is abolished. It is determined whether or not the reliability of values related to electricity such as voltage, frequency, and electric energy is satisfied (whether or not the deviation of the value related to electricity from the reference value is small). If the reliability is not satisfied, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 calculates system countermeasures such as new equipment installation, expansion of existing equipment, and operation change for the system configuration when the equipment that is abolished candidate is abolished. The obtained system countermeasures are output to the risk calculation unit 23 and the cost calculation unit 24 as system countermeasure candidates.

The risk calculation unit 23 determines the risk caused by operating the power system 200 when the equipment of the abolition candidate requested by the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished is abolished and the system countermeasures requested by the system countermeasure selection unit 22 are executed. Ask. The risk calculation unit 23 outputs the obtained risk to the output unit 25 and the display unit 11.

The cost calculation unit 24 calculates the cost generated by operating the power system 200 when the equipment of the abolition candidate requested by the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished is abolished and the system countermeasures requested by the system countermeasure selection unit 22 are executed. , The cost information data (operating cost data D701 and accident cost data D702) stored in the cost information database DB7 is used for calculation in a period including a predetermined future period. The cost calculation unit 24 outputs the obtained cost for each equipment to the output unit 25 and the display unit 11.

The output unit 25 outputs the results obtained by the risk calculation unit 23 and the cost calculation unit 24 to the database 41.

The display unit 11 displays the results obtained by the risk calculation unit 23 and the cost calculation unit 24. The display unit 11 may display the results requested by the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished and the system countermeasure selection unit 22. For example, the display unit 11 displays the risk obtained by the risk calculation unit 23 and the cost obtained by the cost calculation unit 24 to the user of the system 10 by using a graph, a table, or the like. The user of the system 10 can examine and decide the equipment to be abolished by looking at the risks and costs displayed on the display unit 11.

The processing of the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished and the system countermeasure selection unit 22 will be explained using a flowchart.

FIG. 10 is a flowchart showing the processing of the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished.

In step S101, the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished inputs the data stored in the databases DB1-DB6.

In step S102, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 of the power system 200 in order to perform system analysis (tide flow calculation) of the power system 200 based on the power supply configuration plan data D101, the demand forecast data D201, and the system configuration data D301. Create a system cross section showing the state. The equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished creates a system cross section having a predetermined time particle size and time width by using the conventional technique. In this embodiment, the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished creates a system cross section having a time particle size of 1 hour and a time width of 10 years.

In step S103, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 calculates the power flow using the system cross section created in step S102, and requests the operation of the power system 200 including a predetermined future period. For example, the voltage, reliability, utilization rate, etc. in each facility can be obtained by the power flow calculation. In this embodiment, the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished uses the AC method for the tidal current calculation.

In step S104, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 performs processing using the operation history data D401, the abolition index data D501, and the geographic information data D601. The equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished does not meet the abolition judgment criteria of the abolition index included in the abolition index data D501 as the result of the tidal current calculation in step S103 (reliability and utilization rate which are the values of the abolition index items). Search and find. The method for determining whether or not the value of the abolition index (reliability and utilization rate) satisfies the abolition judgment criterion (threshold value or threshold range) differs depending on the item of the abolition index. For example, the items of the abolition index include an item that satisfies the threshold value when the value is larger than the threshold value, an item that satisfies the threshold value when the value is smaller than the threshold value, and an item that satisfies the threshold value when the value is included in the threshold value range. .. Further, the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished creates a system configuration in which equipment that does not meet the abolition determination criteria (equipment obtained by searching) is abolished for each equipment obtained by searching.

In step S105, the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished creates a system cross section for the system configuration in which the equipment that does not satisfy the abolition determination standard (threshold value) created in step S104 is abolished, and calculates the tidal current in the same manner as in step S103. And ask for reliability. However, in the system configuration in which the equipment that does not meet the abolition judgment criteria is abolished, which was created in step S104, if the connection relationship between the equipment is broken and the power flow calculation cannot be executed, the reliability is not obtained. The system section will be used in subsequent processing. A broken connection means that the system configuration is not normal, for example, there is equipment (load) that does not allow power to flow.

In step S106, the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished uses the abolition index data D501 to obtain equipment that is a candidate for abolition. The abolition target equipment selection unit 21 determines whether or not the reliability obtained in step S105 satisfies the abolition determination standard (threshold value) included in the abolition index data D501, and obtains a system configuration in which the reliability satisfies the abolition determination standard. .. Then, the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished uses the equipment that has been abolished in the system configuration whose reliability meets the abolition determination criteria as the equipment that is a candidate for abolition. The abolition target equipment selection unit 21 can request a plurality of abolition candidate equipment. For the system configuration in which the tidal current calculation could not be executed in step S105 due to the failure of the connection relationship between the equipment, the equipment as a candidate for abolition is not obtained, and the system cross section is used in the subsequent processing.

In step S107, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 outputs the abolition candidate equipment obtained in step S106 to the system countermeasure selection unit 22. Further, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 transfers the data input in step S101 and the calculation result obtained in steps S102-S106 (including the influence when the abolition candidate equipment is abolished) to the system countermeasure selection unit 22. Output.

FIG. 11 is a flowchart showing the processing of the system countermeasure selection unit 22.

In step S111, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 has a connection relationship between the equipment in the system configuration when the equipment is abolished for each of the equipment candidate for abolition obtained by the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished in step S106 of FIG. Determine if it is bankrupt. That is, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 has a system configuration in which the equipment that does not meet the abolition determination criteria is abolished, which was created by the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished in step S104 of FIG. Determine if the connection is broken. For the equipment of the abolition candidate whose connection relationship in the system configuration is broken when it is abolished, the process of step S114 is executed as "with failure", and for the equipment of the abolition candidate whose connection relationship is not broken, "no failure". The process of step S112 is executed.

In step S112, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 determines that the reliability, which is the value of the abolition index, has deteriorated. If the equipment is abolished, it is expected that various reliability will deteriorate. The system countermeasure selection unit 22 has the reliability (reliability before the abolition of the equipment) obtained by the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished in step S103 of FIG. 10 and the reliability (reliability before the abolition of the equipment) obtained by the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished in step S105. Compare with (reliability after discontinuation of equipment) and find the deterioration rate of reliability (value of discontinuation index). In the system countermeasure selection unit 22, even if the reliability deteriorates, the deteriorated reliability satisfies the abolition judgment criteria of the abolition index included in the abolition index data D501, and the deterioration rate of the reliability is a predetermined allowable range. If it is within the range, the process of step S118 is executed assuming that the deterioration of the reliability is allowed. The system countermeasure selection unit 22 allows the deterioration of reliability if the deteriorated reliability does not meet the abolition judgment criteria included in the abolition index data D501, or if the deterioration rate of reliability is out of the predetermined allowable range. If not, the process of step S113 is executed. The allowable range of the deterioration rate of the reliability can be arbitrarily determined according to the reliability.

In step S113, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 requests system countermeasures for the system configuration when this equipment is abolished for the equipment of the abolition candidate that does not allow the deterioration of reliability when it is abolished. The system measures are measures for suppressing adverse effects (for example, deterioration of reliability) due to the abolition of equipment, and include measures such as new equipment installation, enhancement of existing equipment, and operation change. By implementing system measures, the deteriorated reliability is restored and the abolition judgment criteria included in the abolition index data D501 are satisfied. Examples of augmentation of existing equipment include increasing the capacity of transmission line 330. Examples of operational changes include substation tap ratio changes and grid connection switching.

The grid countermeasure selection unit 22 calculates and creates candidates for grid countermeasures (for example, an increase in the capacity of the transmission line 330 or a change in the tap ratio of the substation). The system countermeasure selection unit 22 creates a large number of system countermeasure candidates regardless of whether or not they are actually feasible. Then, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 selects a system countermeasure whose reliability satisfies the abolition determination criteria included in the abolition index data D501 from all the created system countermeasure candidates. The selection of this system measure may be performed comprehensively for the equipment whose reliability has deteriorated, or may be performed by using the sensitivity calculation obtained by an analysis method such as OPF. The system countermeasure selection unit 22 uses all the system countermeasures selected and obtained together with the equipment of the abolition candidate in the subsequent processing.

Steps S114-S117 are processing for abolished candidate equipment in which the connection relationship in the system configuration breaks down when abolished, and the system configuration including the equipment.

In step S114, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 repairs the broken connection relationship by using the system configuration data D301 and the geographic information data D601. When the equipment is abolished and the connection relationship is broken, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 finds the point where the connection relationship is broken (the point where the connection relationship is broken), and the equipment included in the geographic information data D601. By connecting the closest failure points with the transmission line 330 using the connection relationship, the electrical connection relationship is repaired. The system countermeasure selection unit 22 repairs the connection relationship at all the failure points.

In step S115, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 is based on the power supply configuration plan data D101, the demand forecast data D201, and the system configuration data D301, as in the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 in step S102 of FIG. Create a system cross section to perform system analysis (tide flow calculation).

In step S116, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 calculates the tidal current using the system cross section created in step S115 in the same manner as the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 in step S103 of FIG. , And the utilization rate, etc.

In step S117, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 determines whether or not the reliability obtained in step S116 satisfies the abolition determination criteria included in the abolition index data D501, and obtains a system configuration in which the reliability satisfies the abolition determination criteria. .. Then, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 sets the abolished equipment in the configuration in which the reliability satisfies the abolition determination criteria as the abolition candidate equipment. The system countermeasure selection unit 22 can request a plurality of abolition candidate equipment.

In step S118, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 outputs the system countermeasures obtained in step S113 and the equipment of the abolition candidate obtained in step S117 to the risk calculation unit 23 and the cost calculation unit 24. Further, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 outputs the input data and the calculation result obtained in steps S111 to S117 to the risk calculation unit 23 and the cost calculation unit 24.

The risk calculation unit 23 will be described. The risk calculation unit 23 is divided into the system configuration when the abolition candidate equipment is abolished and the system configuration in which system countermeasures are applied to this configuration, which are required by the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 and the system countermeasure selection unit 22. On the other hand, the risk is calculated for a predetermined time particle size (for example, every hour) and a predetermined time width (for example, 10 years). The risk can be an arbitrarily determined matter, for example, whether a power outage occurs at the time of an accident, and if so, how much the power outage is (the scale of the power outage). The risk calculation unit 23 can calculate the risk by using a known analysis method. For example, the risk calculation unit 23 can calculate the risk using SAIDI (SystemAverageInterruptionDurationIndex). SAIDI is an index of the average annual power outage time, and the larger the index, the longer the average annual power outage time. The risk calculation unit 23 calculates the risk for the obtained system configuration using such an index.

The cost calculation unit 24 will be described. The cost calculation unit 24 uses the cost information data (for example, the operation cost data D701 and the accident cost data D702) to perform the cost when operating the system configuration when the equipment of the abolition candidate is abolished and the system countermeasures. Calculate the cost of operating the system configuration. The cost calculation unit 24 can calculate general costs for each facility (for example, depreciation costs, asset depreciation costs, and recovery costs in the event of an accident) using, for example, a known method.

The equipment consolidation and abolition plan creation support system 10 according to this embodiment requests the equipment that is a candidate for abolition and the system measures when this equipment is abolished in the power system 200, and the risks when the equipment is abolished and when the system measures are implemented. And the cost can be calculated and output. By inputting the data D101-D702 into the system 10, the user of the system 10 can automatically obtain the equipment consolidation plan and its risk-effectiveness, and can reduce the labor required for these.

In the equipment consolidation / abolition plan creation support system 10 according to the second embodiment of the present invention, when the abolition candidate equipment is obtained, it is searched for from all the equipment included in the system configuration like the system 10 according to the first embodiment. Instead, search within the specified search range (for example, from equipment with a low utilization rate). Further, in the system 10 according to the present embodiment, unlike the system 10 according to the first embodiment, the equipment as a candidate for abolition is obtained based on whether or not the equipment cannot be abolished, not based on the reliability. Further, in the system 10 according to the present embodiment, the method of selecting the system countermeasure is also different from the system 10 according to the first embodiment.

Hereinafter, the equipment consolidation / abolition plan creation support system 10 according to this embodiment will be described. In the following description, the same or common configuration as the system 10 according to the first embodiment will be omitted.

The hardware configuration of the equipment consolidation plan creation support system 10 according to this embodiment is the same as the hardware configuration of the system 10 according to the first embodiment (FIG. 1).

FIG. 12 is a diagram showing an example of the functional configuration of the equipment consolidation / abolition plan creation support system 10 according to this embodiment. The system 10 according to the present embodiment has the same configuration as the system 10 according to the first embodiment (FIG. 2), but the abolition target equipment selection unit 21a and the system countermeasure selection unit 22a are eliminated from the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 and the system countermeasure selection unit. It is different from the system 10 according to the first embodiment in that it is provided in place of each of the 22 and the countermeasure database DB 8 is provided.

The equipment selection unit 21a to be abolished uses the data on the equipment that cannot be abolished (equipment that cannot be abolished) from the specified search range, and searches for the equipment that is a candidate for abolition.

The system countermeasure selection unit 22a is effective in recovering the reliability (making the reliability satisfy the abolition judgment criteria) for the system configuration when the abolition candidate equipment whose reliability does not meet the abolition judgment criteria is abolished. Select the system countermeasures that are expected to exist, and reflect the selected grid countermeasures in the power system 200.

The countermeasure plan database DB8 stores the countermeasure plan data. Countermeasure plan data is data on system measures and the effects and costs for system measures.

FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an example of the countermeasure plan data D801 stored in the countermeasure plan database DB8. The countermeasure plan data D801 includes the system countermeasures when the user of the system 10 abolishes a certain facility, the implementation contents of the system countermeasures, and the expected effects and costs when the system countermeasures are implemented. In FIG. 13, when system measures are implemented, those that are expected to be effective are indicated by "1", those that are expected to be ineffective are indicated by "-", and those that are expected to have an adverse effect. Is indicated by "-1". For example, the system measure of introducing SVC (Static Var Compensator) is effective for voltage stability, and the system measure of transferring the output of the generator is not effective for voltage stability. It is shown in FIG. 13 that the system measures of deploying the power supply vehicle are expected to adversely affect the voltage stability. The countermeasure plan data D801 can be predetermined by the user of the system 10.

The processing of the equipment selection unit 21a to be abolished and the system countermeasure selection unit 22a will be explained using a flowchart.

FIG. 14 is a flowchart showing the processing of the equipment selection unit 21a to be abolished. Hereinafter, the processing of the equipment selection unit 21a to be decommissioned, which is different from the processing of the equipment selection unit 21 to be decommissioned (FIG. 10) described in the first embodiment, will be described.

In step S141, the equipment selection unit 21a to be abolished uses at least one of the past operation history obtained from the operation history data D401 and the operation of the power system 200 including the future period obtained by the tidal current calculation in step S103. Based on the abolition index data D501, the range for searching for abolition candidate equipment is narrowed down and determined. It is assumed that the abolition target equipment selection unit 21a is, for example, a facility for searching for equipment whose utilization rate (FIG. 6) does not satisfy the abolition determination criteria (threshold value) of the abolition index included in the abolition index data D501. In this way, the equipment selection unit 21a to be abolished narrows down the range for searching for equipment that is a candidate for abolition.

In step S104, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21a does not satisfy the abolition determination criteria included in the abolition index data D501 from the search range defined in step S141 as the result (reliability) of the tidal current calculation in step S103. Search for equipment and seek it.

In step S105, the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished executes the same process as step S105 of the first embodiment.

In step S142, the equipment selection unit 21a to be abolished uses the abolition index data D501 to obtain equipment that is a candidate for abolition. In the first embodiment, the equipment selection unit 21 to be abolished uses the reliability to obtain equipment that is a candidate for abolition. In this embodiment, the equipment selection unit 21a to be abolished does not use the reliability and uses the data about the equipment that cannot be abolished (equipment that cannot be abolished) included in the abolition index data D501, and the equipment that is a candidate for abolition is abolished. Investigate whether the equipment is impossible and ask for equipment that is a candidate for discontinuation. The equipment selection unit 21a to be abolished requests equipment other than the equipment that cannot be abolished, that is, the equipment that can be abolished from the equipment that is the candidate for abolition obtained in step S104, and sets the requested equipment as the equipment that is the candidate for abolition.

In step S107, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21a outputs the abolition candidate equipment obtained in step S142 to the system countermeasure selection unit 22a. Further, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21a transfers the data input in step S101 and the calculation result obtained in steps S102-S142 (including the influence when the abolition candidate equipment is abolished) to the system countermeasure selection unit 22a. Output.

FIG. 15 is a flowchart showing the processing of the system countermeasure selection unit 22a. Hereinafter, the system countermeasure selection unit 22a will be described with respect to the process different from the process (FIG. 11) of the system countermeasure selection unit 22 described in the first embodiment.

When the process of step S116 is completed, the system countermeasure selection unit 22a executes the process of step S151.

In step S151, the system countermeasure selection unit 22a determines the reliability using the abolition determination criteria included in the abolition index data D501. In the system countermeasure selection unit 22a, when the reliability (reliability after the abolition of the equipment) obtained by the equipment selection unit 21a to be abolished in step S105 of FIG. 14 does not satisfy the abolition judgment criteria included in the abolition index data D501. Executes the process of step S152, and if satisfied, executes the process of step S118.

In step S152, the system countermeasure selection unit 22a inputs the countermeasure plan data D801 from the countermeasure plan database DB8.

In step S153, the system countermeasure selection unit 22a takes the system countermeasures included in the countermeasure plan data D801 (FIG. 13) for the equipment of the abolition candidate whose reliability does not meet the abolition judgment criteria included in the abolition index data D501. Select and reflect in the power system 200. As the system measures at this time, the system measures in normal times and the system measures in the event of an accident in the power system 200 can be considered, and the reliability in normal times and the reliability in the event of an accident are used as the reliability. be able to. The system countermeasure selection unit 22a is expected to be effective in recovering the reliability (making the reliability satisfy the abolition judgment criteria) from the system countermeasures included in the countermeasure plan data D801. Is selected, and the selected system measures are reflected in the power system 200. In FIG. 13, system measures that are expected to be effective when implemented are indicated by “1”.

When the process of step S153 is completed, the system countermeasure selection unit 22a executes the processes of steps S115 and S116, and performs system analysis (tide flow calculation) on the power system 200 reflecting the system countermeasure selected in step S153. Then, it is confirmed in step S151 whether or not the system countermeasure selected in step S153 is effective (that is, whether or not the reliability meets the abolition determination criteria).

As for system measures, as shown in FIG. 13, measures for adding equipment (for example, measures for introducing SVC to restore voltage reliability) and measures for adjusting operation (for example, transferring the output of a generator). Measures) and measures to install temporary equipment (for example, measures to avoid power outages by deploying a power generator in the event of a system accident). In addition, even if a power outage occurs in the case of a system accident, if the amount of power outage (scale of power outage) is small and the power outage time is short or the loss due to the power outage is small, measures to allow the power outage without taking measures are also available. It can be included in the countermeasures.

In the equipment consolidation / abolition plan creation support system 10 according to this embodiment, by allowing the reliability to not meet the abolition judgment criteria (reliability violation) (that is, in step S142 of FIG. 14, the abolition target equipment selection unit). 21a seeks decommissioning candidate equipment without using reliability), and seeks decommissioning candidate equipment based on the idea of paying emergency costs for low-risk or low-loss reliability violations. Therefore, the system 10 according to the present embodiment seeks an equipment consolidation plan that can reduce the cost of the entire equipment plan without incurring excessive costs for risks and can obtain a wide range of cost effectiveness. Can be done.

The present invention is not limited to the above embodiment, and various modifications are possible. For example, the above-described embodiment has been described in detail in order to explain the present invention in an easy-to-understand manner, and the present invention is not necessarily limited to the embodiment including all the described configurations. Further, it is possible to replace a part of the configuration of one embodiment with the configuration of another embodiment. It is also possible to add the configuration of another embodiment to the configuration of one embodiment. Further, it is possible to delete a part of the configuration of each embodiment and add / replace another configuration.

10 ... Equipment consolidation plan creation support system, 11 ... Display unit, 12 ... Input unit, 13 ... Communication unit, 14 ... CPU, 15 ... Memory, 21, 21a ... Abolition target equipment selection unit, 22, 22a ... System countermeasure selection Unit, 23 ... Risk calculation unit, 24 ... Cost calculation unit, 25 ... Output unit, 41 ... Database, 43 ... Bus line, 200 ... Power system, 310 (310a, 310b) ... Power supply, 311 ... Solar power supply, 320 (320a, 320b, 320c, 320d, 320e, 320f) ... Bus, 330 (330a, 330b, 330c, 330d, 330e, 330f) ... Transmission line, 360 (360a, 360b, 360c) ... Load, D101 ... Power supply configuration plan Data, D201 ... Demand forecast data, D301 ... System configuration data, D401 ... Operation history data, D501 ... Abolition index data, D601 ... Geographic information data, D701 ... Operation cost data, D702 ... Accident cost data, D801 ... Countermeasure plan data , DB1 ... Power supply configuration plan database, DB2 ... Demand forecast database, DB3 ... System configuration database, DB4 ... Operation history database, DB5 ... Abolition index database, DB6 ... Geographic information database, DB7 ... Cost information database, DB8 ... Countermeasure plan database.

Claims (8)

1. The equipment selection department to be abolished, which seeks equipment that is a candidate for abolition from the equipment that constitutes the power system,
   The system countermeasure selection unit that obtains the system countermeasures that are the measures to suppress the influence of the abolition of the equipment from the created grid countermeasures or the predetermined grid countermeasures.
   A risk calculation unit that calculates the risk that occurs when the power system is operated when the equipment that is the candidate for abolition requested by the equipment selection unit to be abolished is abolished and the system countermeasures requested by the system countermeasure selection unit are executed. When,
   A cost calculation unit that calculates the cost of operating the power system when the equipment of the abolition candidate requested by the equipment selection unit for abolition is abolished and the system countermeasures requested by the system countermeasure selection unit are executed. When,
   An abolition index database that stores data on the abolition index and abolition judgment criteria used when requesting the abolition candidate equipment, and an abolition index database.
   Equipped with
   The abolition target equipment selection unit determines whether or not the value of the abolition index obtained by performing a power flow calculation for the configuration of the power system satisfies the abolition determination criteria, and obtains the abolition candidate equipment.
   A support system for creating equipment consolidation plans, which is characterized by this.
2. The abolition target equipment selection department
   The equipment whose abolition index value obtained by performing power flow calculation for the configuration of the power system does not satisfy the abolition determination criteria is searched for and obtained.
   A tidal current calculation is performed on the configuration of the power system in which the equipment that does not satisfy the abolition determination criteria is performed to obtain the value of the abolition index, and it is determined whether or not the obtained value of the abolition index satisfies the abolition determination criteria. By doing so, the equipment of the abolition candidate is sought.
   The equipment consolidation / abolition plan creation support system according to claim 1.
3. The abolition index database stores data on the equipment that cannot be abolished.
   The abolition target equipment selection department
   The equipment whose abolition index value obtained by performing power flow calculation for the configuration of the power system does not satisfy the abolition determination criteria is searched for and obtained.
   From the equipment that does not satisfy the abolition determination criteria, the equipment that can be abolished is obtained based on the data about the equipment that cannot be abolished, and the equipment that is a candidate for abolition is obtained.
   The equipment consolidation / abolition plan creation support system according to claim 1.
4. The system countermeasure selection unit
   Obtain the deterioration rate of the value of the abolition index when the abolition candidate equipment requested by the abolition target equipment selection department is abolished.
   If the deterioration rate of the value of the abolition index is out of the predetermined allowable range, the system measures are requested.
   The equipment consolidation / abolition plan creation support system according to claim 1.
5. The system countermeasure selection unit
   In the configuration of the power system when the equipment of the abolition candidate requested by the equipment selection unit to be abolished is abolished, it is determined whether or not the connection relationship between the equipment is broken.
   When the connection relationship is broken, the broken connection relationship is repaired by connecting the failure points of the connection relationship.
   It is determined whether or not the value of the abolition index obtained by performing a power flow calculation for the power system whose connection relationship has been repaired satisfies the abolition determination criterion.
   The equipment consolidation / abolition plan creation support system according to claim 1.
6. The abolition target equipment selection unit narrows down the range for searching for the abolition candidate equipment using the past operation history, and obtains the abolition candidate equipment from the narrowed down range.
   The equipment consolidation / abolition plan creation support system according to claim 1.
7. It is equipped with a countermeasure database that stores the system countermeasures when the equipment is abolished and the expected effects when this system countermeasure is implemented.
   The system countermeasures stored in the countermeasure plan database are predetermined system countermeasures.
   The system countermeasure selection unit inputs the effect expected to be the system countermeasure from the countermeasure proposal database, and is effective in satisfying the abolition determination criterion from the input system countermeasures. Select the system measures that are expected to exist,
   The equipment consolidation / abolition plan creation support system according to claim 1.
8. A display unit for displaying the risk obtained by the risk calculation unit and the cost obtained by the cost calculation unit is provided.
   The equipment consolidation / abolition plan creation support system according to claim 1.

Images