JP7475262B2 - Facility consolidation and closure planning support system - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to a system that supports the creation of plans for the consolidation and elimination of power system facilities.

Electricity facilities included in the power system need to be newly constructed or decommissioned depending on the electricity demand and industrial form. Facilities with declining demand and low utilization rates are considered for decommissioning because even if they remain in place, they will incur costs such as operating expenses and labor costs related to the facilities. When facilities are decommissioned, in order to maintain the power supply to consumers connected downstream of the decommissioned facilities, it is necessary to replace the functions and transmission capacity of the decommissioned facilities with existing facilities, for example by changing the connections of the power system. In general, decommissioning electric power facilities results in the inability to transmit electricity to consumers connected downstream of the decommissioned facilities, and also has adverse effects such as a decrease in the stability of the entire power system and a decrease in the ability to maintain power supply in the event of a system accident.

A plan to abolish or modify equipment to reduce costs while minimizing the impact of abolishing power equipment is called an equipment consolidation plan. A known method for creating equipment consolidation plans is to extract equipment to be abolished that will enable the system to satisfy operational constraints even if it is abolished. Patent Document 1 discloses an example of a system that supports the creation of equipment consolidation plans in this way.

JP 2020-67941 A

In the system planning support system described in Patent Document 1, a certain equipment change proposal is judged as to whether it satisfies the system operation constraints, and if it satisfies the constraints, the equipment change proposal is added to the equipment plan. However, with the huge number of facilities in the power system, it takes a lot of time and effort to extract facilities with high cost-effectiveness and create equipment change proposals. In addition, when the power system changes due to the introduction of renewable energy, the predictability of the system flow decreases, and it is necessary to evaluate the long-term impact and effect caused by the consolidation and abolition of facilities. In order to consider the combination of consolidation and abolition of all facilities and the expected configuration of the future system and create a comprehensive equipment change proposal, there is a problem that the search range is huge and it takes a long time to obtain a solution with conventional technology. In addition, when creating an equipment change proposal, it is desirable to consider system measures, which are measures to mitigate or avoid the adverse effects associated with the abolition of facilities.

The object of the present invention is to provide a system for supporting the creation of facility consolidation and abolition plans that can determine facilities that can be decommissioned in a power system and system measures associated with the decommissioning of such facilities, along with the risks and costs required for the decommissioning of facilities and system measures.

The facility consolidation and abolition plan creation support system according to the present invention includes an abolition target facility selection unit that selects abolition candidate facilities from among facilities constituting a power system; a system measure selection unit that selects system measures that are measures for suppressing the impact of the abolition of the facilities from among the prepared system measures or the predetermined system measures; a risk calculation unit that calculates the risk that will occur in operating the power system when the abolition candidate facilities selected by the abolition target facility selection unit are abolished and the system measure selected by the system measure selection unit is implemented; a cost calculation unit that calculates the cost that will occur in operating the power system when the abolition candidate facilities selected by the abolition target facility selection unit are abolished and the system measure selected by the system measure selection unit is implemented; and an abolition index database that stores data on abolition indexes and abolition judgment criteria used when selecting abolition candidate facilities. The abolition target facility selection unit determines whether the value of the abolition index obtained by performing a power flow calculation on the configuration of the power system satisfies the abolition judgment criteria, and selects the abolition candidate facilities.

The present invention provides a system for supporting the creation of facility consolidation and abolition plans that can determine facilities that can be decommissioned in a power system and system measures associated with the decommissioning of facilities, along with the risks and costs required for the decommissioning of facilities and system measures.

FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an example of a hardware configuration of a facility consolidation plan creation support system according to a first embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of a functional configuration of a facility consolidation plan creation support system according to a first embodiment. FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of power supply configuration plan data stored in a power supply configuration plan database. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of demand forecast data stored in a demand forecast database. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of system configuration data stored in a system configuration database. FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of operation history data stored in an operation history database. FIG. 13 is a diagram illustrating an example of obsolete indicator data stored in an obsolete indicator database. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of geographic information data stored in a geographic information database. FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of cost information data stored in a cost information database. 11 is a flowchart showing the processing of the abolition target equipment selection unit in the first embodiment. 4 is a flowchart showing a process of a grid countermeasure selection unit in the first embodiment. FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating an example of a functional configuration of a facility consolidation plan creation support system according to a second embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of countermeasure proposal data stored in a countermeasure proposal database. 13 is a flowchart showing the processing of the abolition target equipment selection unit in the second embodiment. 13 is a flowchart showing a process of a grid countermeasure selection unit in the second embodiment.

The equipment consolidation plan creation support system according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings. The equipment consolidation plan creation support system according to embodiment 1 of the present invention extracts equipment that is a candidate for decommissioning and candidates for system measures associated with the decommissioning of the equipment, and calculates the risks and costs required for the decommissioning of the equipment and the system measures. The equipment consolidation plan creation support system according to embodiment 2 of the present invention relaxes the constraints when extracting equipment that is a candidate for decommissioning, thereby preventing excessive costs from being incurred in relation to risks and reducing costs.

Figure 1 is a diagram showing an example of the hardware configuration of a facility consolidation plan creation support system 10 according to a first embodiment of the present invention. The facility consolidation plan creation support system 10 is generally composed of a computer, and includes a display unit 11, an input unit 12 such as a keyboard or mouse, a communication unit 13, a CPU (Central Processing Unit) 14, a memory 15, and a database 41. These are connected to each other by a bus line 43.

The display unit 11 can be configured with any display device or output device. For example, the display unit 11 can be configured using at least one of a display device, a printer device, and an audio output device.

The input unit 12 can be configured with any input device. For example, the input unit 12 can be configured using at least one of a keyboard, a pointing device such as a mouse, a touch panel, and a voice instruction device.

The communication unit 13 includes circuits and communication protocols for connecting the system 10 to a communication network.

The CPU 14 may be configured with one or more semiconductor chips, or may be configured using a computing device such as a computing server.

The memory 15 is, for example, a RAM (Random Access Memory), and stores computer programs and data (for example, calculation result data and image data) required for processing performed by the system 10. The screen data stored in the memory 15 is sent to the display unit 11 and displayed.

The database 41 stores the configuration (system configuration) of the power system 200. The facility consolidation plan creation support system 10 according to this embodiment uses the system configuration stored in the database 41 to support the creation of a consolidation plan (facility consolidation plan) for the power facilities that make up the power system 200.

Figure 1 shows an example of the configuration of a power system 200 in which the creation of a facility consolidation plan is supported by the system 10 according to this embodiment. The power system 200 includes power sources 310 (310a, 310b), photovoltaic power sources 311, bus bars 320 (320a, 320b, 320c, 320d, 320e, 320f), power transmission lines 330 (330a, 330b, 330c, 330d, 330e, 330f), and loads 360 (360a, 360b, 360c) as its main facilities. These power facilities are circuit components of the power system 200.

Figure 2 is a diagram showing an example of the functional configuration of the facility consolidation plan creation support system 10 according to this embodiment. Users of the system 10 are, for example, electricity transmission and distribution businesses and electricity distribution system managers.

The facility consolidation and elimination plan creation support system 10 includes a power source configuration plan database DB1, a demand forecast database DB2, a system configuration database DB3, an operation history database DB4, abolition index database DB5, a geographic information database DB6, a cost information database DB7, a facility to be abolished selection unit 21, a system countermeasure selection unit 22, a risk calculation unit 23, a cost calculation unit 24, an output unit 25, and a display unit 11.

The power supply configuration plan database DB1 stores power supply configuration plan data, which is data regarding the power supply configuration plan for the power system 200 for the present and a specified future period.

Demand forecast database DB2 stores demand forecast data, which is data about the forecast of electricity demand for each load for a specified future period.

The system configuration database DB3 stores system configuration data for the power system 200, which is data on the current equipment configuration and the future equipment configuration determined by equipment plans.

Operation history database DB4 stores operation history data, which is data about the history of equipment operation (e.g., equipment operation and power flow rate) for each piece of equipment included in power system 200 over a specified period of time in the past.

The abolition indicator database DB5 stores abolition indicator data, which is data on indicators used when determining equipment that is a candidate for abolition. The abolition indicator data includes data on abolition indicators used when determining equipment that is a candidate for abolition, and data on non-abolishable equipment, which is equipment that cannot be abolished. An example of non-abolishable equipment includes equipment that is directly connected to a hospital.

The geographic information database DB6 stores geographic information data, which is data on predicted demographic trends for each region, industrial structure, and production indexes. The geographic information data can be collected, for example, from information systems such as the Cabinet Office's Regional Economic Analysis System (RESAS).

The cost information database DB7 stores cost information data, which is data on the costs incurred for each piece of equipment. The costs incurred for each piece of equipment include, for example, operating costs such as depreciation, fixed asset amortization, and repair costs, as well as recovery costs in the event of an accident with the equipment.

The decommissioning target equipment selection unit 21 uses the data stored in databases DB1-DB6 to identify equipment that is a candidate for decommissioning from among the equipment that constitutes the power system 200, taking into consideration the impact on the system configuration if the equipment is decommissioned.

The system countermeasure selection unit 22 determines system countermeasures for the system configuration in the case where the equipment that is a candidate for abolition determined by the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 is abolished. System countermeasures are measures to mitigate or avoid the adverse effects associated with the abolition of equipment, thereby suppressing these adverse effects.

The risk calculation unit 23 calculates the risks that will arise from operating the power system 200 in the case where the equipment candidates for decommissioning selected by the decommissioning target equipment selection unit 21 is decommissioned and the system measures selected by the system measure selection unit 22 are implemented, for a period including a specified future period.

The cost calculation unit 24 uses the cost information data stored in the cost information database DB7 to calculate the costs incurred in operating the power system 200 when the equipment candidates for abolition determined by the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 is abolished and the system measures determined by the system measure selection unit 22 are implemented, for a period including a specified future period.

The output unit 25 outputs the risk calculated by the risk calculation unit 23 and the cost calculated by the cost calculation unit 24 to the database 41.

The display unit 11 displays the risk calculated by the risk calculation unit 23 and the cost calculated by the cost calculation unit 24. The display unit 11 may also display the results calculated by the decommissioning target equipment selection unit 21 and the system countermeasure selection unit 22.

The system configuration database DB3 may update the system configuration data when the equipment that is a candidate for abolition determined by the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 is abolished, the system measures determined by the system measure selection unit 22 are implemented, and the future configuration of the power system 200 is updated.

Databases DB1-DB7 may store data obtained from a system other than system 10, and may be provided in a system other than system 10.

Figure 3 is a diagram showing an example of power supply configuration plan data D101 stored in the power supply configuration plan database DB1. The power supply configuration plan data D101 can be determined in advance by a user of the system 10. The power supply configuration plan data D101 includes data such as the power sources whose configuration in the power system 200 will change from the current one, the type of power source, equipment changes that will occur in the power source, the time of equipment change, and the details of the equipment change. As an example, Figure 3 shows that the thermal power source 310a is scheduled to be expanded in 2030, with a plan to increase capacity by 100 MW.

Figure 4 is a diagram showing an example of demand forecast data D201 stored in the demand forecast database DB2. The demand forecast data D201 can be determined in advance by a user of the system 10. The demand forecast data D201 includes data on the forecast of power demand at each load at a certain point in time. The demand forecast data D201 stores data at a predetermined time granularity (time interval) over a predetermined period of time. Figure 4 shows, as an example, the forecast of power demand at loads 360a, 360b, and 360c. Note that in Figure 4, pu is the unit system symbol.

Figure 5 is a diagram showing an example of system configuration data D301 stored in the system configuration database DB3. The system configuration data D301 includes data on the configuration of equipment at a certain point in time in the power system 200, such as equipment capacity and impedance. The system configuration data D301 stores data at a predetermined time granularity over a predetermined period of time. Figure 5 shows the configuration of the power transmission lines 330a-330f as an example. The system configuration data D301 stores data on the configuration of all equipment in the power system 200, including not only the power transmission lines 330a-330f but also transformers and phase modifiers. The system configuration data D301 can also include the connection relationship of the equipment in the power system 200. In Figure 5, j is an imaginary symbol, and pu is a unit symbol.

Figure 6 is a diagram showing an example of operation history data D401 stored in operation history database DB4. The operation history data D401 includes data such as the history of operations performed and the history of past electrical operations for each facility in the power system 200. As an example, Figure 6 shows the operation history of power line 330a, which was newly installed in 2010 and had an average annual utilization rate of 20% in 2010. The operation history data D401 may also include data such as utilization rates at a specified time granularity in the past.

Figure 7 is a diagram showing an example of abolition indicator data D501 stored in the abolition indicator database DB5. The abolition indicator data D501 includes data on abolition indicators used when determining equipment that is a candidate for abolition, and data on non-abolishable equipment that is equipment that cannot be abolished. The abolition indicator data D501 can be determined in advance by a user of the system 10. The abolition indicator data D501 may also be automatically created and determined in advance by the system 10.

The abolition index includes items used when determining equipment that is a candidate for abolition and abolition criteria set for each item. The abolition criteria are a threshold and a threshold range set for each item. In the following, the threshold range may be included in the threshold. Items used when determining equipment that is a candidate for abolition include, for example, reliability indicating deviation from a reference value, equipment utilization rate, and impact in the event of an accident. Reliability is set for values related to electricity such as voltage, frequency, and power amount for the configuration and equipment of the power system 200, and any index defined, such as a KPI (Key Performance Indicator), can be used. Figure 7 shows voltage reliability set for voltage values as an example of reliability. Figure 7 also shows voltage fluctuation and power outage amount (scale of power outage) as an example of impact in the event of an accident.

Non-decommissionable equipment includes, for example, equipment directly connected to a hospital or equipment connected to an operating factory.

Figure 8 is a diagram showing an example of geographic information data D601 stored in the geographic information database DB6. The geographic information data D601 includes data on demographic forecasts, production indexes, and industrial forms for the regions to be planned. The geographic information data D601 also includes facilities existing in each region and the connection relationships of these facilities in the power system 200. As an example, Figure 8 shows data on future population forecasts, gross domestic product (GDP), industrial forms, and existing facilities for a region identified by a target region ID. The geographic information data D601 can be predetermined by a user of the system 10 using data from a public information collection system such as the Cabinet Office's Regional Economic Analysis System (RESAS).

Figure 9 is a diagram showing an example of cost information data stored in the cost information database DB7. The cost information data can be determined in advance by a user of the system 10. The cost information data includes, for example, operational cost data D701 and accident cost data D702. The operational cost data D701 includes depreciation costs and asset amortization costs, which are operational costs for each piece of equipment, as shown in Figure 9, and data is stored over a specified period of time. The accident cost data D702 includes the expected recovery costs for each piece of equipment when an accident occurs to the equipment, as shown in Figure 9, for example.

The abolition target equipment selection unit 21 inputs data stored in databases DB1-DB6, performs power flow calculations considering the impact of abolishing equipment on the system configuration determined from the input data, and uses abolition index data D501 to determine equipment that is a candidate for abolition, and outputs the determined equipment that is a candidate for abolition to the system measure selection unit 22. The abolition target equipment selection unit 21 performs power flow calculations to determine the state in which power flows (including the voltage and power of each equipment), reliability, and utilization rate of the equipment. The abolition target equipment selection unit 21 can use existing methods such as the AC method and Optimal Power Flow (hereinafter referred to as "OPF") as a power flow calculation method. The abolition target equipment selection unit 21 searches through all equipment included in the system configuration to determine equipment that is a candidate for abolition.

The system countermeasure selection unit 22 uses the abolition candidate equipment determined by the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 and the impact if the abolition candidate equipment is abolished to determine whether the reliability of electrical values such as voltage, frequency, and power amount is satisfied for the system configuration when the abolition candidate equipment is abolished (whether the deviation of the electrical values from the reference value is small). If the reliability is not satisfied, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 calculates and determines system countermeasures such as new equipment installation, expansion of existing equipment, and operation change for the system configuration when the abolition candidate equipment is abolished, and outputs the determined system countermeasures to the risk calculation unit 23 and the cost calculation unit 24 as system countermeasure candidates.

The risk calculation unit 23 calculates the risk that will occur when operating the power system 200 if the equipment that is a candidate for abolition determined by the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 is abolished and the system measures determined by the system measure selection unit 22 are implemented. The risk calculation unit 23 outputs the calculated risk to the output unit 25 and the display unit 11.

The cost calculation unit 24 calculates the costs incurred in operating the power system 200 when the equipment candidates for decommissioning determined by the decommissioning target equipment selection unit 21 is decommissioned and the system measures determined by the system measure selection unit 22 are implemented, using the cost information data (operation cost data D701 and accident cost data D702) stored in the cost information database DB7, for a period including a specified future period. The cost calculation unit 24 outputs the determined cost for each equipment to the output unit 25 and the display unit 11.

The output unit 25 outputs the results obtained by the risk calculation unit 23 and the cost calculation unit 24 to the database 41.

The display unit 11 displays the results obtained by the risk calculation unit 23 and the cost calculation unit 24. The display unit 11 may also display the results obtained by the decommissioning target equipment selection unit 21 and the system measure selection unit 22. For example, the display unit 11 displays the risk obtained by the risk calculation unit 23 and the cost obtained by the cost calculation unit 24 to users of the system 10 using graphs, tables, etc. Users of the system 10 can consider and decide which equipment to decommission by looking at the risks and costs displayed on the display unit 11.

The processing of the equipment to be abolished selection unit 21 and the system countermeasure selection unit 22 will be explained using a flowchart.

Figure 10 is a flowchart showing the processing of the abolition target equipment selection unit 21.

In step S101, the decommissioning target equipment selection unit 21 inputs the data stored in databases DB1-DB6.

In step S102, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 creates a system cross section showing the state of the power system 200 in order to perform a system analysis (power flow calculation) of the power system 200 based on the power source configuration plan data D101, the demand forecast data D201, and the system configuration data D301. The abolition target equipment selection unit 21 creates a system cross section having a predetermined time granularity and time width using conventional technology. In this embodiment, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 creates a system cross section with a time granularity of one hour and a time width of 10 years.

In step S103, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 performs a power flow calculation using the system cross section created in step S102, and determines the operation of the power system 200, including a specified future period. For example, the power flow calculation determines the voltage, reliability, and utilization rate of each facility. In this embodiment, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 uses the AC method for the power flow calculation.

In step S104, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 performs processing using the operation history data D401, the abolition index data D501, and the geographic information data D601. The abolition target equipment selection unit 21 searches for and finds equipment whose results of the power flow calculation in step S103 (reliability and utilization rate, which are the values of the abolition index item) do not satisfy the abolition judgment criteria of the abolition index included in the abolition index data D501. The method of determining whether the abolition index value (reliability and utilization rate) satisfies the abolition judgment criteria (threshold or threshold range) varies depending on the abolition index item. For example, the abolition index items include items that satisfy the threshold when the value is greater than the threshold, items that satisfy the threshold when the value is less than the threshold, and items that satisfy the threshold when the value is within the threshold range. Furthermore, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 creates a system configuration in which equipment that does not satisfy the abolition judgment criteria (equipment found by searching) is abolished for each piece of equipment found by searching.

In step S105, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 creates a system cross section for the system configuration in which the equipment that does not satisfy the abolition criteria (threshold value) created in step S104 has been abolished, and performs a power flow calculation as in step S103 to determine the reliability. However, if the connection relationship between the equipment has failed in the system configuration in which the equipment that does not satisfy the abolition criteria created in step S104 has been abolished and a power flow calculation cannot be performed, the reliability is not determined and the created system cross section is used in subsequent processing. A connection relationship that has failed means that the system configuration has an abnormal connection relationship, for example, there is equipment (load) through which power does not flow.

In step S106, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 uses the abolition index data D501 to determine equipment that is a candidate for abolition. The abolition target equipment selection unit 21 determines whether the reliability determined in step S105 satisfies the abolition judgment criterion (threshold value) included in the abolition index data D501, and determines a system configuration whose reliability satisfies the abolition judgment criterion. The abolition target equipment selection unit 21 then determines the equipment that has been abolished in the system configuration whose reliability satisfies the abolition judgment criterion as a candidate for abolition. The abolition target equipment selection unit 21 can determine multiple candidate equipment for abolition. Note that for a system configuration in which the connection relationship between equipment has collapsed and the power flow calculation could not be performed in step S105, no candidate equipment for abolition is determined, and the system cross section is used in subsequent processing.

In step S107, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 outputs the abolition candidate equipment determined in step S106 to the system countermeasure selection unit 22. Furthermore, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 outputs the data input in step S101 and the calculation results determined in steps S102-S106 (including the impact if the abolition candidate equipment is abolished) to the system countermeasure selection unit 22.

Figure 11 is a flowchart showing the processing of the system countermeasure selection unit 22.

In step S111, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 judges whether or not the connection relationship between the equipment is broken in the system configuration when each of the equipment candidates for abolition determined by the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 in step S106 of FIG. 10 is abolished. That is, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 judges whether or not the connection relationship between the equipment is broken in the system configuration in which the equipment that does not satisfy the abolition judgment criteria, which is created by the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 in step S104 of FIG. 10, is abolished for each of the equipment candidates for abolition. For the equipment candidates for abolition whose connection relationship in the system configuration will be broken if abolished, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 executes the process of step S114 by assuming "failure exists", and for the equipment candidates for abolition whose connection relationship will not be broken, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 executes the process of step S112 by assuming "no failure".

In step S112, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 judges the deterioration of the reliability, which is the value of the abolition index. When the equipment is abolished, it is expected that various reliabilities will deteriorate. The system countermeasure selection unit 22 compares the reliability (reliability before the abolition of the equipment) obtained by the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 in step S103 of FIG. 10 with the reliability (reliability after the abolition of the equipment) obtained by the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 in step S105, and obtains the deterioration rate of the reliability (value of the abolition index). Even if the reliability deteriorates, if the deteriorated reliability meets the abolition judgment criterion of the abolition index included in the abolition index data D501 and the deterioration rate of the reliability is within a predetermined tolerance range, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 executes the process of step S118 by accepting the deterioration of the reliability. If the deteriorated reliability does not meet the abolition judgment criterion included in the abolition index data D501 or the deterioration rate of the reliability is outside the predetermined tolerance range, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 executes the process of step S113 by accepting the deterioration of the reliability. The acceptable range of the reliability degradation rate can be determined arbitrarily depending on the reliability.

In step S113, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 determines system countermeasures for the system configuration when abolishing a piece of equipment that is a candidate for abolition and that does not tolerate a deterioration in reliability when the equipment is abolished. System countermeasures are measures to suppress adverse effects (e.g., deterioration in reliability) associated with the abolition of equipment, and include measures such as the installation of new equipment, the expansion of existing equipment, and changes in operation. By implementing system countermeasures, the deteriorated reliability is restored so that the abolition criteria included in the abolition index data D501 are satisfied. An example of the expansion of existing equipment includes increasing the capacity of the transmission line 330. Examples of changes in operation include changing the tap ratio of a substation and switching the system connection.

The system countermeasure selection unit 22 calculates and creates candidate system countermeasures (for example, increasing the capacity of the transmission line 330 or changing the tap ratio of a substation). The system countermeasure selection unit 22 creates many candidate system countermeasures regardless of whether they are actually feasible. Then, from all the created candidate system countermeasures, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 selects a system countermeasure whose reliability satisfies the abolition criteria included in the abolition index data D501. This selection of system countermeasures may be performed comprehensively for equipment whose reliability has deteriorated, or may be performed using sensitivity calculations obtained by an analysis method such as OPF. The system countermeasure selection unit 22 uses all the selected and found system countermeasures in subsequent processing, together with the equipment that is a candidate for abolition.

Steps S114-S117 are the processes for the equipment that is a candidate for abolition, the connection relationship in the system configuration of which will be disrupted if the equipment is abolished, and the system configuration that includes that equipment.

In step S114, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 uses the system configuration data D301 and the geographic information data D601 to repair the failed connection relationships. When a facility is decommissioned and a connection relationship has broken, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 determines the point where the connection relationship has broken (the connection relationship failure point), and uses the facility connection relationship included in the geographic information data D601 to connect the closest failure points with a power transmission line 330, thereby repairing the electrical connection relationship. The system countermeasure selection unit 22 repairs the connection relationships for all failure points.

In step S115, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 creates a system cross section to perform a system analysis (power flow calculation) of the power system 200 based on the power source configuration plan data D101, the demand forecast data D201, and the system configuration data D301, in the same way as the abolition target facility selection unit 21 in step S102 of FIG. 10 does.

In step S116, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 uses the system cross section created in step S115 to perform a power flow calculation in the same manner as the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 in step S103 of FIG. 10, and determines the voltage, reliability, utilization rate, etc. of each facility.

In step S117, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 determines whether the reliability calculated in step S116 satisfies the abolition criteria included in the abolition index data D501, and calculates a system configuration whose reliability satisfies the abolition criteria. Then, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 determines the abolished equipment in the configuration whose reliability satisfies the abolition criteria as a candidate for abolition. The system countermeasure selection unit 22 can determine multiple candidate equipment for abolition.

In step S118, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 outputs the system countermeasures determined in step S113 and the facilities that are candidates for decommissioning determined in step S117 to the risk calculation unit 23 and the cost calculation unit 24. Furthermore, the system countermeasure selection unit 22 outputs the input data and the calculation results determined in steps S111-S117 to the risk calculation unit 23 and the cost calculation unit 24.

The risk calculation unit 23 will be described. The risk calculation unit 23 calculates the risk for a predetermined time granularity (for example, every hour) and a predetermined time span (for example, 10 years) for the system configuration when the equipment to be abolished, which is obtained by the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 and the system countermeasure selection unit 22, is abolished and the system configuration in which the system countermeasure is applied to this configuration. The risk can be any item that is predetermined in advance, such as whether a power outage will occur in the event of an accident, and if so, how much the power outage will be (the scale of the power outage). The risk calculation unit 23 can calculate the risk using a known analysis method. For example, the risk calculation unit 23 can calculate the risk using the SAIDI (System Average Interruption Duration Index). The SAIDI is an index of the average annual power outage time, and the larger this index is, the longer the average annual power outage time is in an area. The risk calculation unit 23 uses such an index to calculate the risk for the obtained system configuration.

The cost calculation unit 24 will be described. The cost calculation unit 24 uses cost information data (e.g., operational cost data D701 and accident cost data D702) to calculate the cost of operating a system configuration in which equipment that is a candidate for decommissioning is decommissioned, and the cost of operating a system configuration in which system measures have been implemented. The cost calculation unit 24 can calculate general costs for each piece of equipment (e.g., depreciation costs, asset amortization costs, and restoration costs in the event of an accident) using, for example, known methods.

The facility consolidation and abolition plan creation support system 10 according to this embodiment can determine facilities that are candidates for abolition and system measures in the event that the facilities are abolished in the power system 200, and can determine and output the risks and costs in the event that the facilities are abolished and in the event that system measures are implemented. By inputting data D101-D702 into the system 10, users of the system 10 can automatically obtain facility consolidation and abolition plans and their risk-benefit ratios, thereby reducing the effort required to determine these.

In the facility consolidation and abolition plan creation support system 10 according to the second embodiment of the present invention, when determining facilities as candidates for abolition, the system does not search among all facilities included in the system configuration as in the system 10 according to the first embodiment, but searches among a set search range (e.g., among facilities with low utilization rates). Furthermore, unlike the system 10 according to the first embodiment, the system 10 according to the present embodiment determines facilities as candidates for abolition based on whether the facilities cannot be abolished, rather than on reliability. The system 10 according to the present embodiment also differs from the system 10 according to the first embodiment in the method of selecting system measures.

The facility consolidation plan creation support system 10 according to this embodiment will be described below. Note that in the following description, explanations of configurations that are the same as or common to the system 10 according to embodiment 1 will be omitted.

The hardware configuration of the facility consolidation plan creation support system 10 according to this embodiment is the same as the hardware configuration of the system 10 according to embodiment 1 (Figure 1).

Fig. 12 is a diagram showing an example of the functional configuration of the facility consolidation and abolition plan creation support system 10 according to this embodiment. The system 10 according to this embodiment has a configuration similar to that of the system 10 according to embodiment 1 (Fig. 2), but differs from the system 10 according to embodiment 1 in that it includes a decommissioning target facility selection unit 21a and a system countermeasure selection unit 22a instead of the decommissioning target facility selection unit 21 and the system countermeasure selection unit 22, respectively, and in that it includes a countermeasure proposal database DB8.

The decommissioning target equipment selection unit 21a uses data on non-decommissionable equipment (equipment that cannot be decommissioned) from within the defined search range to find equipment that is a candidate for decommissioning.

The system countermeasure selection unit 22a selects system countermeasures that are expected to be effective in restoring reliability (making the reliability satisfy the abolition criteria) for the system configuration when abolition candidate equipment whose reliability does not satisfy the abolition criteria is abolished, and reflects the selected system countermeasures in the power system 200.

The countermeasure proposal database DB8 stores countermeasure proposal data. The countermeasure proposal data is data on grid measures and the effects and costs of the grid measures.

Figure 13 is a diagram showing an example of countermeasure proposal data D801 stored in countermeasure proposal database DB8. The countermeasure proposal data D801 includes grid countermeasures in the case where a user of system 10 abolishes a certain facility, the implementation details of the grid countermeasures, and the expected effects and costs of implementing the grid countermeasures. In Figure 13, grid countermeasures that are expected to be effective when implemented are indicated by "1", those that are expected to have no effect are indicated by "-", and those that are expected to have a negative effect are indicated by "-1". For example, Figure 13 shows that the grid countermeasure of introducing a static var compensator (SVC) is expected to be effective for voltage stability, the grid countermeasure of transferring the output of a generator is ineffective for voltage stability, and the grid countermeasure of deploying a power source vehicle is expected to have a negative effect on voltage stability. The countermeasure proposal data D801 can be determined in advance by the user of system 10.

The processing of the equipment to be abolished selection unit 21a and the system countermeasure selection unit 22a will be explained using a flowchart.

Figure 14 is a flowchart showing the processing of the abolition target equipment selection unit 21a. Below, the processing of the abolition target equipment selection unit 21a that differs from the processing of the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 described in Example 1 (Figure 10) will be described.

In step S141, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21a narrows and determines the range for searching for abolition candidate equipment based on the abolition index data D501 using at least one of the past operation history obtained from the operation history data D401 and the operation of the power system 200 including the future period determined by the power flow calculation in step S103. For example, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21a determines that the equipment to be searched for is an equipment whose utilization rate (Figure 6) does not satisfy the abolition determination criterion (threshold value) of the abolition index included in the abolition index data D501. In this way, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21a narrows and sets the range for searching for abolition candidate equipment.

In step S104, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21a searches for and finds equipment within the search range determined in step S141 whose results (reliability) of the power flow calculation in step S103 do not satisfy the abolition determination criteria included in the abolition index data D501.

In step S105, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 executes the same process as step S105 in Example 1.

In step S142, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21a uses the abolition index data D501 to determine equipment that is a candidate for abolition. In the first embodiment, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21 determines equipment that is a candidate for abolition using reliability. In this embodiment, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21a does not use reliability, but uses data on non-abolishable equipment (equipment that cannot be abolished) included in the abolition index data D501 to check whether the equipment that is a candidate for abolition is equipment that cannot be abolished, and determines the equipment that is a candidate for abolition. The abolition target equipment selection unit 21a determines equipment other than non-abolishable equipment, i.e., equipment that can be abolished, from the equipment that is a candidate for abolition determined in step S104, and sets the determined equipment as the equipment that is a candidate for abolition.

In step S107, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21a outputs the abolition candidate equipment determined in step S142 to the system countermeasure selection unit 22a. Furthermore, the abolition target equipment selection unit 21a outputs the data input in step S101 and the calculation results determined in steps S102-S142 (including the impact when the abolition candidate equipment is abolished) to the system countermeasure selection unit 22a.

Figure 15 is a flowchart showing the processing of the grid countermeasure selection unit 22a. Below, the processing of the grid countermeasure selection unit 22a that differs from the processing of the grid countermeasure selection unit 22 described in Example 1 (Figure 11) will be described.

When the processing of step S116 is completed, the system countermeasure selection unit 22a executes the processing of step S151.

In step S151, the system countermeasure selection unit 22a judges the reliability using the abolition judgment criteria included in the abolition index data D501. If the reliability (reliability after the equipment is abolished) calculated by the abolition target equipment selection unit 21a in step S105 of FIG. 14 does not satisfy the abolition judgment criteria included in the abolition index data D501, the system countermeasure selection unit 22a executes the process of step S152, and if it does satisfy the abolition judgment criteria, executes the process of step S118.

In step S152, the system countermeasure selection unit 22a inputs countermeasure proposal data D801 from the countermeasure proposal database DB8.

In step S153, the system countermeasure selection unit 22a selects system countermeasures included in the countermeasure proposal data D801 (FIG. 13) for facilities that are candidates for abolition and whose reliability does not satisfy the abolition criteria included in the abolition index data D501, and reflects the selected system countermeasures in the power system 200. The system countermeasures at this time can take into account system countermeasures under normal circumstances and system countermeasures when an accident occurs in the power system 200, and the reliability can be the reliability under normal circumstances and the reliability during an accident. The system countermeasure selection unit 22a selects system countermeasures that are expected to be effective in restoring reliability (making the reliability satisfy the abolition criteria) from the system countermeasures included in the countermeasure proposal data D801, and reflects the selected system countermeasures in the power system 200. In FIG. 13, system countermeasures that are expected to be effective when implemented are indicated by "1".

When the processing of step S153 is completed, the system countermeasure selection unit 22a executes the processing of steps S115 and S116, performs a system analysis (power flow calculation) on the power system 200 reflecting the system countermeasure selected in step S153, and checks in step S151 whether the system countermeasure selected in step S153 is effective (i.e., whether the reliability has come to satisfy the abolition judgment criterion).

As shown in Figure 13, grid countermeasures include adding equipment (for example, introducing an SVC to restore voltage reliability), adjusting operations (for example, redirecting generator output), and installing temporary equipment (for example, deploying a power supply vehicle to avoid a power outage in the event of a grid accident). In addition, even if a power outage occurs in the event of a grid accident, if the amount of power outage (scale of the power outage) is small and the duration or loss due to the power outage is small, measures to tolerate the power outage without taking any countermeasures can also be included in grid countermeasures.

In the facility consolidation and elimination plan creation support system 10 according to this embodiment, by allowing the reliability not to satisfy the abolition judgment criteria (violation of reliability) (i.e., in step S142 of FIG. 14, the abolition target facility selection unit 21a determines facilities as candidates for abolition without using reliability), facilities as candidates for abolition are determined based on the idea that emergency costs will be paid for reliability violations with low risk or small loss. Therefore, the system 10 according to this embodiment can determine a facility consolidation and elimination plan that can reduce the cost of the entire facility plan without incurring excessive costs for risks and can achieve a wide range of cost-effectiveness.

The present invention is not limited to the above-mentioned examples, and various modifications are possible. For example, the above-mentioned examples have been described in detail to clearly explain the present invention, and the present invention is not necessarily limited to an embodiment having all of the configurations described. It is also possible to replace part of the configuration of one example with the configuration of another example. It is also possible to add the configuration of another example to the configuration of one example. It is also possible to delete part of the configuration of each example, or to add or replace other configurations.

10...Facility consolidation and abolition plan creation support system, 11...Display unit, 12...Input unit, 13...Communication unit, 14...CPU, 15...Memory, 21, 21a...Decommissioning target facility selection unit, 22, 22a...System countermeasure selection unit, 23...Risk calculation unit, 24...Cost calculation unit, 25...Output unit, 41...Database, 43...Bus line, 200...Power system, 310 (310a, 310b)...Power source, 311...Photovoltaic power generation power source, 320 (320a, 320b, 320c, 320d, 320e, 320f)...Bus line, 330 (330a, 330b, 330c, 330d, 330e, 330f)...Power transmission line, 360 (360a, 3 60b, 360c)...load, D101...power supply configuration plan data, D201...demand forecast data, D301...system configuration data, D401...operation history data, D501...discontinuation index data, D601...geographical information data, D701...operation cost data, D702...accident cost data, D801...countermeasures proposal data, DB1...power supply configuration plan database, DB2...demand forecast database, DB3...system configuration database, DB4...operation history database, DB5...discontinuation index database, DB6...geographical information database, DB7...cost information database, DB8...countermeasures proposal database.

Claims (8)

an abolition target equipment selection unit that selects equipment to be abolished from among the equipment constituting the power system;
a power system countermeasure selection unit that selects a power system countermeasure, which is a countermeasure for suppressing an impact associated with the decommissioning of the facility, from the created power system countermeasures or the predetermined power system countermeasures;
a risk calculation unit that calculates a risk that will occur when operating the power system when the equipment to be abolished selected by the abolition target equipment selection unit is abolished and the power system countermeasure selected by the power system countermeasure selection unit is implemented;
a cost calculation unit that calculates a cost incurred by operating the power system when the equipment to be abolished selected by the abolition target equipment selection unit is abolished and the power system countermeasure selected by the power system countermeasure selection unit is implemented;
a decommissioning index database for storing data on decommissioning indexes and decommissioning criteria used when determining the facilities that are candidates for decommissioning;
Equipped with
The abolition target equipment selection unit determines whether or not the value of the abolition index obtained by performing a power flow calculation on the configuration of the power system satisfies the abolition determination criterion, and selects the abolition candidate equipment.
A system for supporting the creation of facility consolidation plans. The abolition target equipment selection unit
searching for and determining the facility in which the value of the abolition index determined by performing a power flow calculation on the configuration of the power system does not satisfy the abolition determination criterion;
determining a value of the abolition index by performing a power flow calculation for a configuration of the power system in which the equipment that does not satisfy the abolition determination criterion has been abolished, and determining whether the obtained value of the abolition index satisfies the abolition determination criterion, thereby determining the equipment that is a candidate for abolition;
The facility consolidation and elimination plan creation support system according to claim 1. The decommissioning indicator database stores data on the equipment that cannot be decommissioned;
The abolition target equipment selection unit
searching for and determining the facility in which the value of the abolition index determined by performing a power flow calculation on the configuration of the power system does not satisfy the abolition determination criterion;
Finding the equipment that can be abolished based on the data on the equipment that cannot be abolished from the equipment that does not satisfy the abolition determination criterion, thereby finding the equipment that is a candidate for abolition.
The facility consolidation and elimination plan creation support system according to claim 1. The power system countermeasure selection unit includes:
determining a deterioration rate of the abolition index value when the abolition candidate equipment determined by the abolition target equipment selection unit is abolished;
If the deterioration rate of the value of the abolition index is outside a predetermined allowable range, the grid countermeasure is required.
The facility consolidation and elimination plan creation support system according to claim 1. The power system countermeasure selection unit includes:
determining whether or not a connection relationship between the facilities is broken in a configuration of the power system when the facilities to be abolished selected by the abolition target facility selection unit are abolished;
If the connection relationship is broken, repairing the broken connection relationship by connecting the broken point of the connection relationship;
determining whether or not the value of the abolition index obtained by performing a power flow calculation on the power system after the connection relationship has been restored satisfies the abolition determination criterion;
The facility consolidation and elimination plan creation support system according to claim 1. The abolition target equipment selection unit narrows down a range for searching for the abolition candidate equipment using a past operation history, and finds the abolition candidate equipment from within the narrowed down range.
The facility consolidation and elimination plan creation support system according to claim 1. a countermeasure database that stores the grid countermeasures in the case where the facility is decommissioned and the effects that are expected when the grid countermeasures are implemented;
The power grid countermeasures stored in the countermeasure proposal database are predetermined power grid countermeasures,
the power system measure selection unit inputs the power system measures and the expected effects from the countermeasure proposal database, and selects, from the input power system measures, the power system measures that are expected to be effective in causing the value of the abolition index to satisfy the abolition determination criterion;
The facility consolidation and elimination plan creation support system according to claim 1. a display unit that displays the risk calculated by the risk calculation unit and the cost calculated by the cost calculation unit,
The facility consolidation and elimination plan creation support system according to claim 1.

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