WO2021012670A1 - 页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法及装置 - Google Patents

页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法及装置 Download PDF

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WO2021012670A1
WO2021012670A1 PCT/CN2020/076346 CN2020076346W WO2021012670A1 WO 2021012670 A1 WO2021012670 A1 WO 2021012670A1 CN 2020076346 W CN2020076346 W CN 2020076346W WO 2021012670 A1 WO2021012670 A1 WO 2021012670A1
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shale
value
oil
original
tested
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PCT/CN2020/076346
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English (en)
French (fr)
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侯连华
付金华
王京红
刘显阳
赵忠英
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中国石油天然气股份有限公司
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Priority claimed from CN201910676727.4A external-priority patent/CN112288118B/zh
Application filed by 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 filed Critical 中国石油天然气股份有限公司
Priority to EP20775570.3A priority Critical patent/EP3789941B1/en
Priority to US17/044,035 priority patent/US20230220755A1/en
Priority to RU2020133604A priority patent/RU2758483C1/ru
Priority to CA3094190A priority patent/CA3094190C/en
Publication of WO2021012670A1 publication Critical patent/WO2021012670A1/zh

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    • E—FIXED CONSTRUCTIONS
    • E21—EARTH OR ROCK DRILLING; MINING
    • E21B—EARTH OR ROCK DRILLING; OBTAINING OIL, GAS, WATER, SOLUBLE OR MELTABLE MATERIALS OR A SLURRY OF MINERALS FROM WELLS
    • E21B43/00—Methods or apparatus for obtaining oil, gas, water, soluble or meltable materials or a slurry of minerals from wells
    • E21B43/16—Enhanced recovery methods for obtaining hydrocarbons
    • E21B43/24—Enhanced recovery methods for obtaining hydrocarbons using heat, e.g. steam injection
    • E—FIXED CONSTRUCTIONS
    • E21—EARTH OR ROCK DRILLING; MINING
    • E21B—EARTH OR ROCK DRILLING; OBTAINING OIL, GAS, WATER, SOLUBLE OR MELTABLE MATERIALS OR A SLURRY OF MINERALS FROM WELLS
    • E21B49/00—Testing the nature of borehole walls; Formation testing; Methods or apparatus for obtaining samples of soil or well fluids, specially adapted to earth drilling or wells
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G01—MEASURING; TESTING
    • G01V—GEOPHYSICS; GRAVITATIONAL MEASUREMENTS; DETECTING MASSES OR OBJECTS; TAGS
    • G01V20/00—Geomodelling in general
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G01—MEASURING; TESTING
    • G01V—GEOPHYSICS; GRAVITATIONAL MEASUREMENTS; DETECTING MASSES OR OBJECTS; TAGS
    • G01V9/00—Prospecting or detecting by methods not provided for in groups G01V1/00 - G01V8/00
    • G01V9/005—Prospecting or detecting by methods not provided for in groups G01V1/00 - G01V8/00 by thermal methods, e.g. after generation of heat by chemical reactions
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/067—Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/02—Agriculture; Fishing; Forestry; Mining

Definitions

  • the invention relates to the technical field of petroleum exploration, in particular to a method and a device for predicting the amount of oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil.
  • Shale refers to the middle and low maturity shale with high total organic carbon content (TOC) and low vitrinite reflectance (Ro), including generated petroleum hydrocarbons and unconverted organic matter. Due to the low degree of thermal evolution of low-maturity shale oil, the pores in the shale are not developed, fluid flow is difficult, and commercial-scale development cannot be achieved with the existing horizontal well volume fracturing technology. Medium and low maturity shale can be developed using in-situ conversion technology. In-situ conversion technology converts the unconverted organic matter in the middle and low maturity shale into oil and gas through in-situ heating, and the in-situ converted oil and gas are retained in A technology that simultaneously produces oil and gas in shale.
  • TOC total organic carbon content
  • Ro low vitrinite reflectance
  • the world-wide recoverable resources of medium and low maturity shale oil in situ conversion technology are about 1.4 trillion tons, and the recoverable resources of natural gas technology are about 1100 trillion cubic meters; my country's medium and low maturity shale oil
  • the recoverable resources of in-situ conversion technology are about 70 billion to 90 billion tons, and the recoverable resources of natural gas technology are about 57 trillion cubic meters to 65 trillion cubic meters; more than three times the recoverable resources of conventional oil and natural gas technologies. , The potential is huge.
  • the generated hydrocarbons are analyzed, and the experiment ends when the required temperature is reached;
  • the third is a semi-open system high temperature and high pressure hydrocarbon generation and expulsion simulation experiment, the broken sample (generally 200 grams) is put into the sample kettle, vacuum is applied, and the covering pressure is set. Determine the hydrocarbon expulsion pressure threshold, quickly raise the temperature to the set temperature, keep it constant for a few days, collect and quantify the discharged natural gas, crude oil and water, and determine the hydrocarbons retained in the experimental sample.
  • the fourth is the closed system hydrocarbon generation simulation-gold tube simulation experiment. The broken sample (usually 0.02-0.1 grams) is put into the sample kettle, vacuumed, and the high-pressure water pump is constant fluid pressure outside the gold tube, and the temperature is quickly raised to the required temperature.
  • the experiment ends when the temperature is required, and the generated natural gas and light crude oil are collected for quantitative analysis, and the hydrocarbons retained in the experimental samples are determined; or the closed system hydrocarbon generation simulation-autoclave simulation experiment, the broken sample (usually 200 grams) is put into the sample The kettle, do not add water or add a small amount of water, vacuum, quickly heat up to the required temperature, and end the experiment after reaching the required temperature, collect the generated natural gas and crude oil for quantitative analysis, and determine the hydrocarbons retained in the experimental sample.
  • H/C can be obtained through microphase organic matter analysis and testing, but H/C C is not only time-consuming but also expensive.
  • hydrous silicate rocks will be precipitated, which will release hydrogen during combustion, resulting in abnormally high H/C.
  • Silicone gel contamination can be identified by a microscope and It can be treated with hot hydrochloric acid, but silicon fluoride is insoluble in acid, which causes large errors in the H/C measurement and low evaluation accuracy.
  • the second is the open system simulation experiment, which cannot be pressurized, cannot simulate the actual formation conditions, has a small sample amount, large errors, and a fast heating rate, which cannot truly reflect the thermal maturation process of the source rock, and cannot obtain the retained oil and gas under the formation conditions.
  • the third is a semi-open system high temperature and high pressure hydrocarbon generation and expulsion simulation experiment.
  • the crushed loose samples are used. There is a lot of space in the samples, and the amount of retained oil and gas obtained is inaccurate, which cannot truly reflect the thermal maturity of the source rock under the formation conditions. In the process, the amount of retained oil and gas was removed without realizing the variable pressure to obtain data, and the evaluation of shale hydrocarbon generation, retained hydrocarbon and produced hydrocarbon could not be obtained.
  • the fourth is the closed system hydrocarbon generation simulation-golden tube simulation experiment. It is impossible to simulate the hydrocarbon expulsion process. The generated oil and gas have secondary cracking. The sample amount is small, the error is large, and the heating speed is fast, which cannot truly reflect the thermal maturation process of the source rock; System hydrocarbon generation simulation-autoclave simulation experiment, can not carry out hydrocarbon expulsion and retained oil and gas simulation, furnace wall thickness, temperature is difficult to accurately measure, pressure control is difficult, constant pressure experiment is not carried out, oil and gas secondary hydrocarbon generation and cracking rate is high, heating The speed is fast and cannot truly reflect the thermal maturation process of source rocks. So far, there has not been a high-precision method for evaluating the amount of oil and gas produced in shale oil conversion.
  • the embodiment of the present invention provides a method for predicting the oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil, which is used to quantitatively predict the oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil and improve the prediction of oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil. Accuracy and efficiency, the method includes:
  • the output of the shale to be tested is obtained;
  • the in-situ oil production prediction model is based on the oil production data obtained by thermal simulation experiments on multiple different shale samples, and the original TOC value, Ro value, and original HI value of the shale sample are pre-established;
  • the gas output of the shale to be tested is obtained; the shale oil is in-situ
  • the developed gas production prediction model is based on the gas production data obtained by thermal simulation experiments on multiple different shale samples, as well as the original TOC value, Ro value, and original HI value of the shale sample.
  • the embodiment of the present invention provides a device for predicting the amount of oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil, which is used to quantitatively predict the amount of oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil and improve the prediction of the amount of oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil.
  • the device includes:
  • the acquisition unit is used to acquire the TOC value of the original total organic carbon content, the vitrinite reflectance Ro value and the original hydrogen index HI value of the shale to be tested;
  • the output oil prediction unit is used to obtain the output of the shale to be tested based on the original TOC value, Ro value, and original HI value of the shale to be tested, as well as the pre-established shale oil in-situ development output prediction model.
  • Oil production; the shale oil in-situ development production prediction model is: according to the production data obtained by thermal simulation experiments on multiple different shale samples, and the original TOC value, Ro Value and original HI value are pre-established;
  • the gas output prediction unit is used to obtain the gas output of the shale to be tested based on the original TOC value, Ro value, original HI value of the shale to be tested, and the pre-established shale oil in-situ gas output prediction model ;
  • the shale oil in-situ development gas production prediction model is: according to the production gas data obtained by thermal simulation experiments on multiple different shale samples, and the original TOC value, Ro value, and original HI value of the shale sample Pre-established.
  • the embodiment of the present invention also provides a computer device, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and running on the processor.
  • a computer program stored in the memory and running on the processor.
  • the processor executes the computer program, the above-mentioned shale oil in-situ is realized.
  • An embodiment of the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium that stores a computer program that executes the above-mentioned method for predicting the amount of oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil.
  • the shale oil in-situ development output oil was established in advance.
  • Volume prediction model based on the gas output data obtained by thermal simulation experiments on multiple different shale samples, as well as the original TOC value, Ro value, and original HI value of the shale sample, the in-situ development output of shale oil is established in advance.
  • the gas volume prediction model overcomes the shortcomings of the existing technology that only considers the single factor of shale to establish a model, and can obtain the relevant oil and gas parameters of shale samples more realistically.
  • the application of the shale oil in-situ development output oil volume prediction model and The shale oil in-situ development gas production prediction model not only realizes the quantitative prediction of the shale oil in-situ development production, but also improves the prediction accuracy of shale oil in-situ development.
  • the technical solutions provided in the embodiments of the present invention are obtained after obtaining the test After the original TOC value, Ro value and original HI value of shale, according to the above-mentioned high prediction accuracy of shale oil in-situ development output prediction model and shale oil in-situ development output prediction model, the need for treatment is realized Performing simulation experiments on shale measurement can obtain the oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil to be tested, which improves the prediction efficiency of oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil.
  • the technical solution provided by the embodiments of the present invention realizes the quantitative prediction of the oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil, and improves the prediction accuracy and efficiency of the oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil.
  • Figure 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for predicting oil and gas output from in-situ development of shale oil in an embodiment of the present invention
  • Figure 2 is a diagram showing the relationship between thermal simulation temperature of shale sample and Ro in an embodiment of the present invention
  • Figure 3 is a diagram showing the relationship between shale hydrogen index/shale original hydrogen index and vitrinite reflectance Ro in an embodiment of the present invention
  • FIG. 4 is a diagram showing the relationship between the TOC and TOC change rate of shale and the vitrinite reflectance Ro in the embodiment of the present invention
  • Fig. 5 is a diagram showing the relationship between remaining oil generation of shale and vitrinite reflectance Ro in an embodiment of the present invention
  • Fig. 6 is a diagram showing the relationship between the remaining gas generated from shale and the vitrinite reflectance Ro in the embodiment of the present invention.
  • Fig. 7 is a diagram showing the relationship between the amount of shale retained oil and the vitrinite reflectance Ro in an embodiment of the present invention.
  • FIG. 8 is a diagram showing the relationship between the amount of retained gas in shale and the reflectance Ro of vitrinite in an embodiment of the present invention.
  • Figure 9 is a diagram showing the relationship between shale oil production and vitrinite reflectance Ro in an embodiment of the present invention.
  • Figure 10 is a diagram showing the relationship between shale gas production and vitrinite reflectance Ro in an embodiment of the present invention.
  • Fig. 11 is a schematic structural diagram of a device for predicting oil and gas output from in-situ development of shale oil in an embodiment of the present invention.
  • the in-situ conversion technology is suitable for middle and low maturity shale.
  • the in-situ conversion "sweet spot" controls the distribution of high-quality shale resources. It is necessary to conduct “sweet spot” evaluation and optimization before bit conversion and development, that is, to determine the optimal region for shale oil development through the prediction of oil and gas output from in-situ conversion of shale oil.
  • the amount of oil and gas produced by in-situ conversion is one of the important evaluation content.
  • the amount of oil and gas produced by in-situ conversion controls the development benefits of in-situ conversion of shale oil.
  • the amount of oil and gas is the key to in-situ conversion evaluation (prediction) of shale oil. It is necessary to use a brand-new idea and evaluation method to evaluate the oil and gas produced by in-situ conversion in order to meet the needs of in-situ conversion evaluation and exploration and development.
  • the present invention can also accurately evaluate and predict the amount of retained oil and gas in shale and the remaining amount of oil and gas generated by in-situ conversion.
  • the following is a detailed introduction to the prediction scheme for the in-situ conversion (development) of shale oil involved in the embodiment of the present invention.
  • Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for predicting oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil in an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in Fig. 1, the method includes the following steps:
  • Step 101 Obtain the original total organic carbon content TOC value, vitrinite reflectance Ro value and the original hydrogen index HI value of the shale to be tested;
  • Step 102 According to the original TOC value, Ro value, original HI value of the shale to be tested, and the pre-established shale oil in-situ development output prediction model, obtain the output oil of the shale to be tested;
  • the shale oil in-situ development output prediction model is: based on the output data obtained by thermal simulation experiments on multiple different shale samples, and the original TOC value, Ro value, and original HI value of the shale sample. set up;
  • Step 103 According to the original TOC value, Ro value, original HI value of the shale to be tested, and the pre-established shale oil in-situ development gas output prediction model, the gas output of the shale to be tested is obtained; the shale
  • the gas production prediction model for in-situ oil development is: pre-established based on gas production data obtained by thermal simulation experiments on multiple different shale samples, and the original TOC value, Ro value, and original HI value of the shale sample;
  • the multiple different shale samples are multiple shale samples with Ro value less than 0.5%.
  • the shale oil in-situ development output oil was established in advance.
  • Volume prediction model based on the gas output data obtained by thermal simulation experiments on multiple different shale samples, as well as the original TOC value, Ro value, and original HI value of the shale sample, the in-situ development output of shale oil is established in advance.
  • the gas volume prediction model overcomes the shortcomings of the existing technology that only considers the single factor of shale to establish a model, and can obtain the relevant oil and gas parameters of shale samples more realistically.
  • the application of the shale oil in-situ development output oil volume prediction model and The shale oil in-situ development gas production prediction model not only realizes the quantitative prediction of the shale oil in-situ development production, but also improves the prediction accuracy of shale oil in-situ development.
  • the technical solutions provided in the embodiments of the present invention are obtained after obtaining the test After the original TOC value, Ro value and original HI value of shale, according to the above-mentioned high prediction accuracy of shale oil in-situ development output prediction model and shale oil in-situ development output prediction model, the need for treatment is realized Performing simulation experiments on shale measurement can obtain the oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil to be tested, which improves the prediction efficiency of oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil.
  • the technical solution provided by the embodiments of the present invention realizes the quantitative prediction of the oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil, and improves the prediction accuracy and efficiency of the oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil.
  • Collect multiple sets of shale samples with different TOC values and Ro values less than 0.5% of the target layer in the study area For example, collect outcrop shale samples from the Chang 7 member of the Ordos Basin, and 9 sets of shale samples with different TOC and Ro less than 0.5%.
  • Each group of shale samples is crushed into 40-100 meshes, preferably 60 meshes, and mixed thoroughly, and each group of uniformly mixed shale samples is divided into 12 parts, each part weighing more than 3kg.
  • the organic carbon content (TOC), hydrogen index (HI) and vitrinite reflectance (Ro) of each group of crushed and mixed shale samples were measured separately (see Table 1 below for details), and each sampling point was collected separately
  • the shale sample is larger than 40kg. If it is an outcrop shale sample, the shale sample collection point is 5m below the ground, and the unweathered shale sample is collected.
  • TOC is measured according to the "Determination of Total Organic Carbon in Sedimentary Rocks" GB/T 19145-2003 national standard; HI is measured according to the "Geochemical Evaluation Method of Terrestrial Source Rocks” SYT 5735-1995 industry standard; Ro is measured according to " Measurement method of vitrinite reflectance in sedimentary rock” SY/T 5124-2012 industry standard measurement.
  • Two sets of thermal simulation experiments are used, that is, one is the shale hydrocarbon generation calorimetric simulation experiment, and the other is the retained and produced hydrocarbon calorimetric simulation experiment.
  • Both sets of experiments use a semi-open experimental system with the same preset pressure of 5MPa and different preset temperatures. Put about 2kg of the sample into the reactor and repeatedly compact with 20MPa pressure. Before the simulation, weigh the mass of the shale sample in the reactor, evacuate the reactor and inject He. There are 11 preset temperature points, namely 250°C, 300°C, 320°C, 335°C, 350°C, 360°C, 390°C, 440°C, 500°C, 540°C, 580°C, covering the beginning to the end of oil and gas generation Different stages.
  • the first preset temperature point is 250°C
  • the programmed temperature rise rate is 20°C/d before the simulated temperature of 200°C
  • the programmed temperature rise rate is 5°C/d for 200°C ⁇ 250°C
  • the second to the eleventh preset temperature points Use the programmed heating rate of 20°C/d before the simulated temperature reaches the previous preset temperature point, and use the programmed heating rate of 5°C/d between the previous preset temperature point and the current preset temperature point; the simulated temperature reaches the preset temperature point After temperature, keep the preset temperature constant for 10 hours.
  • the preset pressure for hydrocarbon expulsion is 7MPa.
  • the amount of oil and gas discharged during the simulation is used to calculate the amount of oil and gas produced per unit mass of rock; the amount of oil and gas purged and extracted after the prediction temperature simulation is over is used to calculate the amount of retained oil and gas per unit mass of rock .
  • the shale at each sample point is used as a group, and the hydrocarbon generation calorimetry simulation experiment is carried out.
  • the ratio of the collected discharged and retained oil and gas volume to the mass of the sample before the simulation is the Sample the remaining oil generation and remaining gas generation per unit mass of rock at the first preset temperature point; extract the thermal simulation sample at the first preset temperature point and carry out the second preset temperature point thermal simulation to obtain the second The amount of oil and gas generated per unit mass of rock at a preset temperature point, and so on, complete the thermal simulation of all preset temperature points.
  • the 9 shale sample sites were carried out thermal simulation experiments for hydrocarbon generation, and the corresponding oil generation and gas generation per unit mass of rock were obtained. After each preset temperature point, the TOC and other parameters of the residue after extraction are measured.
  • Ro is the vitrinite reflectance, %
  • T is the pyrolysis simulation temperature, °C
  • a 1 and b 1 are empirical coefficients, which can be respectively: 0.13797 and 0.005667.
  • the original TOC and the original HI evaluation model (the following formula (2): the original HI prediction model, the following formula (3): the original TOC prediction model) are established according to the thermal simulation experimental data, HI
  • the rate of change refers to the ratio of HI corresponding to a certain Ro value of shale to its original HI
  • the rate of change of TOC refers to the ratio of TOC corresponding to a certain Ro value of shale to its original TOC.
  • HI o is the original hydrogen index value of the shale to be tested (to be determined), mg/g.TOC;
  • HI is the HI value obtained by measuring the shale to be tested (that is, the shale vitrinite reflectance corresponds to Ro Hydrogen index) mg/g.TOC;
  • Ro is the Ro value obtained by measuring the shale to be tested, a 2 and b 2 are empirical coefficients, when Ro ⁇ 1.0%, they can be respectively 5.4792 and -3.0289, when Ro> At 1.0%, it can be 7.4206 and -3.2742 respectively.
  • HT 10 -3 ⁇ HI o ⁇ TOC o ;
  • TOC o is the original total organic carbon content of the shale to be tested (to be determined), wt%; TOC is the TOC value obtained by measuring the shale to be tested, wt% (that is, the vitrinite reflectance of the shale is Ro The value of the total organic carbon content corresponding to the time); Ro is the Ro value obtained by measuring the shale to be tested; HI o is the original hydrogen index value of the shale to be tested (which can be obtained according to the above formula (2)), mg/g.
  • b 311 , b 312 , b 313 , b 314 , b 315 , b 321 , b 322 and b 323 are empirical coefficients, b 311 , b 312 , b 313 , b 314 , and b 315 can be 0.0324, 0.0177, 0.0064, -0.0356, 0.0096; about b 321 , b 322 and b 323 : when Ro ⁇ 1.0%, they can be 1.5838, 1.5862, 0.6134, and when Ro ⁇ 1.0%, they can be -0.0422, 0.2407, 0.3670, respectively.
  • the embodiments of the present invention provide solutions to overcome the defect that the relevant oil and gas parameters can only be obtained by providing simulation experiments in the prior art.
  • the shale HI and Ro (the relationship between HI and Ro and the model see figure 3), TOC and Ro (the relationship between TOC and Ro, the model is shown in Figure 4) evaluation model (original HI prediction model and original TOC prediction model), the TOC prediction model takes into account the impact of changes in HI, and solves
  • the original HI and original TOC prediction problems of different kerogen type shale under different evolution degree conditions are solved, and the defect that the original TOC can only be restored based on the same kerogen type in the prior art is overcome.
  • the type of kerogen refers to the different organic matter components in the shale (source rock), resulting in different oil-generating and gas-generating abilities, including type I, type II, and type III.
  • type I kerogen is derived from Oil-based, type II kerogen oil-gas symbiosis, and type III kerogen mainly gas.
  • the remaining oil production of shale is related to shale Ro, TOC and HI. Based on the results of thermal simulation experiments, a remaining oil production evaluation model is established (the following formula (4), shale oil in-situ development remaining oil production prediction model, specific The embodied relationship is shown in Figure 5).
  • Q og is the remaining oil production of the shale to be tested (to be determined), kg/t.rock; Q ogs is the total oil production of the shale sample in the thermal simulation experiment (known), kg/t.rock; Ro is the Ro value obtained by measuring the shale to be tested, %; a 4 and b 4 are empirical coefficients, which can be 86.023 and -5.232 respectively;
  • TOC os is the thermal simulation experiment shale sample (Q ogs corresponds to the shale sample) The original total organic carbon content value, wt%; HI os is the original hydrogen index value of the thermal simulation experiment shale sample (Q ogs corresponds to the shale sample), mg/g.TOC; TOC ot is the original total organic carbon of the shale to be tested Carbon content value, wt%; HI ot is the original hydrogen index value of the shale to be tested, mg/g.TOC.
  • the remaining gas generation volume of shale is related to shale Ro, TOC and HI. Based on the thermal simulation experiment data, the remaining gas generation volume evaluation model is established (the following formula (5), the shale oil in-situ development residual gas volume prediction model, as shown in the figure) 6).
  • Q gg is the remaining gas generation capacity of the shale to be tested (to be determined), m 3 /t.rock ( 20 °C, 1 standard atmosphere); Q ggs is the total gas generation capacity of the shale sample in the thermal simulation experiment (known) , M 3 /t.rock (20°C, 1 standard atmosphere); Ro is the Ro value obtained by measuring the shale to be tested, %; TOC os is the original total organic carbon content of the shale sample in the thermal simulation experiment (known ); HI os is the original hydrogen index value of the thermal simulation experiment shale sample (Q ggs corresponds to the shale sample) (known); TOC ot is the original total organic carbon content of the shale to be tested (according to the above formula (3 ) Obtained); HI ot is the original hydrogen index value of the shale to be tested (it can be obtained according to the above formula (2)); a 51 , a 52 , a 53 and
  • the embodiment of the present invention can also implement the above formulas (3) and (4) to accurately predict the remaining oil and gas generated by in-situ conversion.
  • Q os is the retained oil volume of the shale to be tested (to be determined), kg/t.rock; Q og is the remaining oil production of the shale sample in the thermal simulation experiment (known); TOC o is the shale to be tested
  • the original total organic carbon content value can be calculated according to the above formula (3)), wt%; f(a 6 ), f(b 6 ), f(c 6 ), f(d 6 )
  • B or is the ratio of the crude oil volume coefficient under the actual formation pressure of the study area to which the shale to be tested belongs to the crude oil volume coefficient under the pressure used in the simulation, dimensionless;
  • HI os is The original hydrogen index value of the thermal simulation experiment shale sample (Q og corresponds to the shale sample) (can be calculated according to the above formula (2)); HI ot is the original hydrogen index value of the shale to be tested (can be calculated
  • f(a 6 ), f(b 6 ), and f(c 6 ) calculation models have the same f(abc) format, but the empirical parameters (coefficients) are different.
  • f(abc) a 61 Ro+a 62 ; where a 61 and a 62 are empirical parameters (coefficients), dimensionless.
  • d 61 , d 62 , d 63 , d 64 and d 65 are empirical coefficients, which can be 0.5591, -0.2805, -0.0486, -0.1186, 0.3411, respectively.
  • c 75 , c 76 , c 77 , c 78 , c 79 , c 710 , c 711 , c 712 and c 713 are empirical coefficients, which can be 0.0273, -0.1717, 6.9326, 0.0401, 6.5261, -0.00016, 0.00655,- 0.10797.
  • Q gs is the retained gas volume of the shale to be tested (to be determined), m 3 /t.rock ( 20 °C, 1 standard atmosphere);
  • Q gg is the remaining gas volume of the shale sample in the thermal simulation experiment (known);
  • f(a 7 ) and f(b 7 ) are the correction coefficients related to the TOC o of the shale to be measured, dimensionless;
  • B gir is the actual formation temperature and natural gas deviation coefficient under pressure in the study area to which the shale to be measured belongs
  • HI os is the original hydrogen index value of the shale sample (Q gg corresponds to the shale sample) in the thermal simulation experiment (known);
  • HI ot is the page to be tested The original hydrogen index value of the rock (which can be obtained according to the above formula (2));
  • Ro is the Ro value obtained by measuring the shale to be
  • the solution provided by the example of the present invention overcomes the defect that the relevant oil and gas parameters can only be obtained by providing simulation experiments in the prior art, and establishes the relationship between the original TOC and the retained oil and gas (shale oil in-situ development retained oil prediction model and page Rock oil in-situ development of retained gas volume prediction model), which overcomes the shortcomings of existing technologies that cannot evaluate (predict) the percentage of retained oil and gas in different original TOC shale, and can predict retained oil volume and retained gas volume corresponding to different shale original TOC and Ro values .
  • the remaining oil production is mainly a contribution to the oil produced.
  • the oil produced is mainly controlled by shale Ro, TOC and HI. As Ro increases, the remaining oil production decreases. When the TOC and HI increase, under the same Ro conditions, the remaining oil production increases, and the oil production also increases.
  • the prediction model for the production of shale oil in-situ development (shown in Figure 9) is:
  • Q po is the oil production of the shale to be tested (to be determined), kg/t.rock;
  • Q os is the retained oil volume of the shale to be tested;
  • Q og is the remaining oil production of the shale to be tested;
  • Ro is the Ro value obtained by measuring the shale to be tested;
  • f(a 81 ), f(a 82 ), f(a 83 ) are the correction coefficients related to the Ro value of the shale to be tested, and
  • HI o is the shale to be tested The original hydrogen index value of the rock;
  • TOC o is the original total organic carbon content value of the shale to be tested;
  • c 81 , c 82 , c 83 and c 84 are empirical coefficients.
  • the gas output is mainly controlled by shale Ro, TOC and HI, and decreases as Ro increases. It is mainly related to the natural gas output caused by the increase in temperature and natural gas expansion. Based on the thermal simulation experiment data, the output gas output evaluation model is established (the following formula (10), the shale oil in-situ development output gas output prediction model, as shown in Figure 10) Shown).
  • Q pg is the output gas volume of the shale to be tested (to be determined), m 3 /t.rock;
  • Q gs is the retained gas volume of the shale to be tested;
  • Q gg is the remaining gas volume of the shale sample;
  • Ro is the treatment Ro value obtained by measuring shale;
  • HI o is the original hydrogen index value of the shale to be tested, mg/g.TOC;
  • TOC o is the original total organic carbon content of the shale to be tested, wt%;
  • f(a 91 ) and f(b 91 ) are the correction coefficients related to the Ro value of the shale to be tested;
  • c 911 , c 912 , c 913 , c 914 , c 915 , c 916 , c 917 and c 918 are empirical coefficients, among which , C 911 , c 912 , c 913 ,
  • the technical solution provided by the example of the present invention realizes the in-situ conversion of different original TOC and Ro shale oil to produce oil production and quantitative evaluation and prediction of gas production through the above formulas (8) and (9).
  • formulas (1)-(9) can be used to obtain the in-situ converted oil and gas produced by shale oil in the study area
  • the quantity data is used to carry out the evaluation and optimization of favorable areas and "sweet spots”.
  • obtaining the original total organic carbon content TOC value, vitrinite reflectance Ro value and original hydrogen index HI value of the shale to be tested may include:
  • the original TOC value of the shale to be tested is obtained;
  • the original TOC prediction model is : Pre-established based on the TOC change rate obtained by thermal simulation experiments on multiple different shale samples;
  • the original HI value of the shale to be tested is obtained;
  • the original HI prediction model is : Pre-established based on the HI change rate obtained by thermal simulation experiments on multiple different shale samples.
  • the above-mentioned method for predicting the amount of oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil may further include:
  • the remaining shale to be tested is obtained Oil production;
  • the prediction model of remaining oil production for in-situ development of shale oil is: according to the remaining oil production data obtained by thermal simulation experiments on multiple different shale samples, and the original TOC value, Ro Value and original HI value are pre-established;
  • the residual gas generation prediction model for in-situ development of shale oil is: the residual gas generation data obtained by thermal simulation experiments on multiple different shale samples, and the original TOC value, Ro value, and original HI of the shale sample The value is pre-established.
  • the above-mentioned method for predicting the amount of oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil may further include:
  • the retained oil of the shale to be tested is obtained
  • the shale oil in-situ development retained oil volume prediction model is: based on the retained oil volume data obtained by thermal simulation experiments on multiple different shale samples, and the original TOC value, Ro value, and original HI of the shale sample Value pre-established;
  • the retained gas of the shale to be tested is obtained;
  • the shale oil in-situ development of retained gas volume prediction model is: pre-established based on retained gas volume data obtained by thermal simulation experiments on multiple different shale samples, and the original TOC value, Ro value, and original HI value of the shale sample.
  • equations (1) to (9) can be used to obtain the study area (the study area of the shale to be tested) In-situ conversion of shale oil to produce oil and gas volume data for evaluation and optimization of favorable areas and "sweet spots".
  • the embodiment of the present invention also provides a device for predicting the oil and gas output from in-situ development of shale oil, as described in the following embodiments. Since the problem-solving principle of the forecasting device for the oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil is similar to the method for forecasting the oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil, the implementation of the forecasting device for oil and gas produced by shale oil in-situ development You can refer to the implementation of the method for predicting the amount of oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil, and the repetition will not be repeated.
  • unit or “module” can be a combination of software and/or hardware that implements predetermined functions.
  • devices described in the following embodiments are preferably implemented by software, hardware or a combination of software and hardware is also possible and conceived.
  • Fig. 11 is a schematic structural diagram of a device for predicting oil and gas output from in-situ development of shale oil in an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in Fig. 11, the device includes:
  • the obtaining unit 02 is used to obtain the original total organic carbon content TOC value, vitrinite reflectance Ro value and original hydrogen index HI value of the shale to be tested;
  • the output oil volume prediction unit 04 is used to obtain the output oil volume prediction model of the shale oil to be tested based on the original TOC value, Ro value, and original HI value of the shale to be tested
  • the output oil volume; the shale oil in-situ development output oil volume prediction model is: according to the output oil volume data obtained by thermal simulation experiments on multiple different shale samples, and the original TOC value of the shale sample, Ro value and original HI value are established in advance;
  • the gas output prediction unit 06 is used to obtain the output of the shale to be tested based on the original TOC value, Ro value, and original HI value of the shale to be tested, as well as the pre-established shale oil in-situ development gas output prediction model
  • the gas output prediction model for in-situ development of shale oil is: based on the output gas data obtained by thermal simulation experiments on multiple different shale samples, and the original TOC value, Ro value, and original HI of the shale sample The value is pre-established.
  • the acquiring unit may be specifically used for:
  • the original TOC prediction model is: according to a plurality of different shale samples The TOC change rate obtained by the thermal simulation experiment is established in advance;
  • the original HI value of the shale to be tested is obtained;
  • the original HI prediction model is: according to a number of different shale samples The HI change rate obtained by conducting the thermal simulation experiment is established in advance.
  • the original HI prediction model may be:
  • HI o is the original hydrogen index value of the shale under test
  • HI is the HI value obtained by measuring the shale under test
  • Ro is the value Ro obtained by measuring the shale under test
  • a 2 and b 2 are empirical coefficients.
  • the original TOC prediction model may be:
  • HT 10 -3 ⁇ HI o ⁇ TOC o ;
  • TOC o is the original total organic carbon content of the shale to be tested; TOC is the TOC value obtained by measuring the shale to be tested; Ro is the Ro value obtained by measuring the shale to be tested; HI o is the original value of the shale to be tested Hydrogen index value; b 311 , b 312 , b 313 , b 314 , b 315 , b 321 , b 322 and b 323 are empirical coefficients.
  • the above-mentioned device for predicting oil and gas output from in-situ development of shale oil may further include:
  • the remaining oil production prediction unit is used to obtain the remaining oil production of the shale under test based on the original TOC value, Ro value, and original HI value of the shale to be tested, as well as the pre-established shale oil in-situ development remaining oil production prediction model Oil production;
  • the prediction model of remaining oil production for in-situ development of shale oil is: according to the remaining oil production data obtained by thermal simulation experiments on multiple different shale samples, and the original TOC value, Ro Value and original HI value are established in advance;
  • the remaining gas generation volume prediction unit is used to obtain the remaining gas volume of the shale to be tested based on the original TOC value, Ro value, and original HI value of the shale under test, as well as the pre-established shale oil in-situ development residual gas volume prediction model
  • the prediction model for the remaining gas generated by in-situ development of shale oil is: the remaining gas generated data obtained by thermal simulation experiments on multiple different shale samples, and the original TOC value, Ro value, and original HI value of the shale sample Pre-established.
  • the remaining oil production prediction model for in-situ development of shale oil may be:
  • the remaining gas generation prediction model for in-situ development of shale oil may be:
  • Q gg is the remaining gas generated by the shale to be tested;
  • Q ggs is the total gas generated by the shale sample in the thermal simulation experiment;
  • Ro is the Ro value obtained by measuring the shale to be tested;
  • TOC os is the shale sample in the thermal simulation experiment
  • HI os is the original hydrogen index value of the shale sample in the thermal simulation experiment;
  • TOC ot is the original total organic carbon content value of the shale to be tested;
  • HI ot is the original hydrogen index value of the shale to be tested ;
  • a 51 , a 52 , a 53 and b 51 are empirical coefficients.
  • the above-mentioned device for predicting oil and gas output from in-situ development of shale oil may further include:
  • the retained oil volume prediction unit is used to obtain the retained oil volume of the shale to be tested based on the original TOC value, Ro value, and original HI value of the shale to be tested, and the pre-established shale oil in-situ development retained oil volume prediction model ;
  • the shale oil in-situ development retained oil volume prediction model is: the retained oil volume data obtained by thermal simulation experiments on multiple different shale samples, and the original TOC value, Ro value, and original HI value of the shale sample Pre-established
  • the retained gas volume prediction unit is used to obtain the retained gas volume of the shale to be tested based on the original TOC value, Ro value, and original HI value of the shale to be tested, and a pre-established shale oil in-situ development retained gas volume prediction model;
  • the shale oil in-situ development of retained gas volume prediction model is based on the retained gas volume data obtained by thermal simulation experiments on multiple different shale samples, as well as the original TOC value, Ro value, and original HI value of the shale sample.
  • the shale oil in-situ development and retained oil volume prediction model may be:
  • Q os is the retained oil volume of the shale to be tested;
  • Q og is the remaining oil generation volume of the shale sample in the thermal simulation experiment;
  • TOC o is the original total organic carbon content of the shale to be tested;
  • f(a 6 ), f(b 6 ), f(c 6 ), f(d 6 ) are the correction coefficients related to the Ro value of the shale to be tested;
  • B or is the crude oil volume coefficient under the actual formation pressure of the study area to which the shale belongs The ratio of the volume coefficient of crude oil under the pressure used in the simulation;
  • HI os is the original hydrogen index value of the shale sample in the thermal simulation experiment;
  • HI ot is the original hydrogen index value of the shale to be tested.
  • the shale oil in-situ development of retained gas volume prediction model may be:
  • Q gs is the retained gas volume of the shale to be tested
  • Q gg is the remaining gas volume of the shale sample in the thermal simulation experiment
  • f(a 7 ) and f(b 7 ) are corrections related to the TOC o of the shale to be tested Coefficient
  • B gir is the ratio of the actual formation temperature and pressure deviation coefficient of natural gas in the study area to which the shale to be tested belongs to the natural gas deviation coefficient under the temperature and pressure used in the simulation.
  • HI os is the original hydrogen of the shale sample in the thermal simulation experiment Index value
  • HI ot is the original hydrogen index value of the shale to be tested
  • Ro is the Ro value obtained by measuring the shale to be tested.
  • the prediction model for the production of shale oil in-situ development may be:
  • Q po is the produced oil volume of the shale to be tested
  • Q os is the retained oil volume of the shale to be tested
  • Q og is the remaining oil production of the shale to be tested
  • Ro is the measured shale to be tested Ro value
  • f(a 81 ), f(a 82 ), f(a 83 ) are correction coefficients related to the Ro value of the shale to be tested
  • HI o is the original hydrogen index value of the shale to be tested
  • TOC o is The original total organic carbon content of the shale to be tested
  • c 81 , c 82 , c 83 and c 84 are empirical coefficients.
  • the prediction model for the gas output from in-situ development of shale oil may be:
  • Q pg is the produced gas volume of the shale to be tested;
  • Q gs is the retained gas volume of the shale to be tested;
  • Q gg is the remaining gas generation volume of the shale to be tested;
  • Ro is the Ro value obtained by measuring the shale to be tested;
  • HI o Is the original hydrogen index value of the shale to be tested;
  • TOC o is the original total organic carbon content of the shale to be tested;
  • f(a 91 ) and f(b 91 ) are the correction coefficients related to the Ro value of the shale to be tested ;
  • C 911 , c 912 , c 913 , c 914 , c 915 , c 916 , c 917 and c 918 are empirical coefficients.
  • the embodiment of the present invention also provides a computer device, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and running on the processor.
  • a computer device including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and running on the processor.
  • the processor executes the computer program, the above-mentioned shale oil in-situ is realized.
  • the processor executes the computer program, the above-mentioned shale oil in-situ is realized.
  • An embodiment of the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium that stores a computer program that executes the above-mentioned method for predicting the amount of oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil.
  • the technical solution provided by the embodiment of the present invention adopts shale original TOC, original HI, and Ro to establish models of oil generation, gas generation, retained oil, retained gas, produced oil, and produced gas, which overcomes the fact that the prior art only considers
  • the shortcomings of shale single-factor modeling can obtain the relevant oil and gas parameters of shale samples more realistically, which overcomes the defect that the differences between different kerogen types can not be considered in the prior art that the models are established separately according to different TOCs.
  • the model takes into account the influence of changes in HI, solves the original HI and original TOC prediction problems of different kerogen type shale under different evolution levels, and overcomes the defect that the existing technology can only restore the original TOC based on the same kerogen type .
  • the technical solution provided by the present invention solves the difficult problems of in situ conversion of different original TOC and Ro shale oil into oil production and gas production quantitative evaluation and prediction, and improves shale oil.
  • the prediction accuracy of in-situ conversion production of oil and gas can meet the needs of shale oil in-situ conversion production evaluation and prediction, shale oil and gas content evaluation and prediction, and oil and gas resource evaluation.
  • the original TOC, Ro, original HI and other characteristic parameters of shale in the same area or horizon, different regions or horizons are very different, it takes a long time to simulate the in-situ conversion conditions to obtain the output oil and gas output.
  • the quantitative evaluation (prediction) model obtained by the present invention can accurately obtain the oil generation, gas generation, and retention of the target shale in the study area. Oil volume, retained gas volume, produced oil volume, and produced gas volume can be quickly evaluated and optimized for in-situ conversion of shale oil.
  • the technical solution provided by the embodiments of the present invention realizes the quantitative prediction of the oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil, and improves the prediction accuracy and efficiency of the oil and gas produced by in-situ development of shale oil.
  • the embodiments of the present invention may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present invention may adopt the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware. Moreover, the present invention may adopt the form of a computer program product implemented on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program codes.
  • a computer-usable storage media including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.
  • These computer program instructions can also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can guide a computer or other programmable data processing equipment to work in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including the instruction device.
  • the device implements the functions specified in one process or multiple processes in the flowchart and/or one block or multiple blocks in the block diagram.
  • These computer program instructions can also be loaded on a computer or other programmable data processing equipment, so that a series of operation steps are executed on the computer or other programmable equipment to produce computer-implemented processing, so as to execute on the computer or other programmable equipment.
  • the instructions provide steps for implementing functions specified in a flow or multiple flows in the flowchart and/or a block or multiple blocks in the block diagram.

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Abstract

一种页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法及装置，其中，该方法包括：获取待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量TOC值、镜质体反射率Ro值和原始氢指数HI值；根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型和页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型，得到待测页岩的原位开发产出油气量；该页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型和页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的产出油气量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立。上述技术方案实现了定量预测页岩油原位开发产出油气量，提高了页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测精度和效率。

Description

页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法及装置
本申请要求2019年07月25日递交的申请号为201910676727.4、发明名称为“页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法及装置”的中国专利申请的优先权，其全部内容通过引用结合在本申请中。
技术领域
本发明涉及石油勘探技术领域，特别涉及一种页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法及装置。
背景技术
页岩是指总有机碳含量(TOC)较高，镜质体反射率(Ro)较低的中低成熟度页岩，包括已生成的石油烃和未转化有机质的统称。由于中低成熟度页岩油的热演化程度不高，页岩中孔隙不发育，流体流动困难，用现有的水平井体积压裂技术无法实现商业规模开发。中低成熟度页岩可利用原位转化技术进行开发，原位转化技术是通过原位加热方法使中低成熟度页岩中的未转化有机质转化为油气，将原位转化的油气与滞留于页岩中的油气同时采出的技术。
据初步研究估算，世界范围内中低成熟度页岩油原位转化技术可采资源量约1.4万亿吨、天然气技术可采资源量约1100万亿立方米；我国中低成熟度页岩油原位转化技术可采资源量约700亿吨～900亿吨、天然气技术可采资源量约57万亿立方米～65万亿立方米；是常规石油、天然气技术可采资源量的3倍以上，潜力巨大。
现有技术中预测页岩产出油气量的方案有四种，一是根据页岩中的干酪根确定其中的氢碳比(H/C)，利用页岩的TOC和Ro建立产出油气量的评价模型。二是开放体系模拟实验，样品(量较少，一般为几克)碎样后，按仪器所需样品量放置加热样品，快速升温至所需温度，样品在升温过程中边生边排，收集所产生烃进行分析，达到所需温度后即结束实验；三是半开放体系高温高压生排烃模拟实验，碎样(一般为200克)放入样品釜，抽真空，加上覆压力，设定排烃压力阀值，快速升温至设定温度，恒温几天，收集排出天然气、原油和水并定量分析，测定滞留于实验样品中烃类。四是封闭体系生烃模拟—黄金管模拟实验，碎样(一般为0.02-0.1克)放入样品釜，抽真空，高压水泵在黄金管外恒定流体压力，快速升温至所需温度，达到所需温度后即结束实验，收 集生成天然气、轻质原油定量分析，测定滞留于实验样品中烃类；或采用封闭体系生烃模拟—高压釜模拟实验，碎样(一般为200克)放入样品釜，不加水或加少量水，抽真空，快速升温至所需温度，达到所需温度后即结束实验，收集生成天然气、原油定量分析，测定滞留于实验样品中烃类。
现有技术中对页岩产出油气量评价的四种方案均存在缺陷：一是采用H/C的产出油气量评价方法，H/C可通过微相有机质分析测试获得，但测定H/C不仅耗时而且费用昂贵，另外，在干酪根分离过程中，会沉淀含水硅酸盐岩，其在燃烧时会释放氢导致H/C异常偏高，硅凝胶污染可通过显微镜识别出来并可以用热盐酸处理掉，但氟化硅不溶于酸，造成H/C的测量存在较大误差，评价精度不高。二是开放体系模拟实验，不能加压，不能模拟实际地层条件，样品量少，误差大，升温速度快，不能真实反映烃源岩热成熟过程，不能获得地层条件下的滞留油气量。三是半开放体系高温高压生排烃模拟实验，采用粉碎后的松散样品，其中样品中留有很大的空间，得到的滞留油气量不准，不能真实反映烃源岩在地层条件下热成熟过程中滞留油气量和排除油气量，没有实现变压力获得数据，无法真实获取页岩生烃、滞留烃和产出烃的评价。四是封闭体系生烃模拟—黄金管模拟实验，无法进行排烃过程模拟，生成的油气存在二次裂解，样品量少，误差大，升温速度快，不能真实反映烃源岩热成熟过程；封闭体系生烃模拟—高压釜模拟实验，不能进行排烃和滞留油气模拟，炉壁厚，温度难准确计量，压力控制难度大，不进行恒压实验，油气二次生烃与裂解机率大，升温速度快，不能真实反映烃源岩热成熟过程。到目前为止，还没有一种精度高的方法用于评价页岩油原位转化产出油气量。
综上，现有页岩油原位开发产出油气量预测方案无法定量预测页岩油原位开发产出油气量，预测精度低、效率低。针对上述问题，目前尚未提出有效的解决方案。
发明内容
本发明实施例提供了一种页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法，用以定量预测页岩油原位开发产出油气量，提高页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测精度和效率，该方法包括：
获取待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量TOC值、镜质体反射率Ro值和原始氢指数HI值；
根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型，得到待测页岩的产出油量；所述页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型 为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的产出油量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立；
根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型，得到待测页岩的产出气量；所述页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的产出气量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立。
本发明实施例提供了一种页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测装置，用以定量预测页岩油原位开发产出油气量，提高页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测精度和效率，该装置包括：
获取单元，用于获取待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量TOC值、镜质体反射率Ro值和原始氢指数HI值；
产出油量预测单元，用于根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型，得到待测页岩的产出油量；所述页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的产出油量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立；
产出气量预测单元，用于根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型，得到待测页岩的产出气量；所述页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的产出气量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立。
本发明实施例还提供了一种计算机设备，包括存储器、处理器及存储在存储器上并可在处理器上运行的计算机程序，所述处理器执行所述计算机程序时实现上述页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法。
本发明实施例还提供了一种计算机可读存储介质，所述计算机可读存储介质存储有执行上述页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法的计算机程序。
本发明实施例提供的技术方案达到了如下有益技术效果：
首先，根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的产出油量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，预先建立了页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型；根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的产出气量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，预先建立了页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型，克服了现有技术只考虑页岩单因素建立模型的缺陷，可以更真实地获得页岩样品的相关油气参 数，因此，应用该页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型和页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型，不仅实现了定量预测页岩油原位开发产出油气量，还提高了页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测精度。
其次，与现有技术中需要针对同一地区或层位、不同地区或层位的页岩模拟原位转化获得产出油量和产出气量，且需要把不同原始TOC、Ro、原始HI页岩样品都模拟后，才能得到待测页岩原位转化获得产出油量和产出气量，所需时间长、成本高的方案相比较，本发明实施例提供的技术方案，在获取到待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值和原始HI值后，根据上述预测精度高的页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型和页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型，实现了无需对待测页岩进行模拟实验即可得到待测页岩的页岩油原位开发产出油气量，提高了页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测效率。
综上，本发明实施例提供的技术方案实现了定量预测页岩油原位开发产出油气量，提高了页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测精度和效率。
附图说明
此处所说明的附图用来提供对本发明的进一步理解，构成本申请的一部分，并不构成对本发明的限定。在附图中：
图1是本发明实施例中页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法的流程示意图；
图2是本发明实施例中页岩样品热模拟温度与Ro关系图；
图3是本发明实施例中页岩氢指数/页岩原始氢指数与镜质体反射率Ro关系图；
图4是本发明实施例中页岩TOC及TOC变化率与镜质体反射率Ro关系图；
图5是本发明实施例中页岩剩余生油量与镜质体反射率Ro关系图；
图6是本发明实施例中页岩剩余生气量与镜质体反射率Ro关系图；
图7是本发明实施例中页岩滞留油量与镜质体反射率Ro关系图；
图8是本发明实施例中页岩滞留气量与镜质体反射率Ro关系图；
图9是本发明实施例中页岩产出油量与镜质体反射率Ro关系图；
图10是本发明实施例中页岩产出气量与镜质体反射率Ro关系图；
图11是本发明实施例中页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测装置的结构示意图。
具体实施方式
为使本发明的目的、技术方案和优点更加清楚明白，下面结合实施方式和附图，对本发明做进一步详细说明。在此，本发明的示意性实施方式及其说明用于解释本发明，但并不作为对本发明的限定。
发明人发现：页岩油原位转化技术开发油气不同于现有技术，原位转化技术适用于中低成熟度页岩，原位转化“甜点区”控制着页岩优质资源量分布，在原位转化开发前需要进行“甜点区”评价优选，即通过页岩油原位转化产出油气量的预测，确定页岩油开发优选区域。原位转化产出油气量是重要的评价内容之一，原位转化产出油气量控制着页岩油原位转化的开发效益，因此，页岩的剩余生油气量、滞留油气量、产出油气量是页岩油原位转化评价(预测)的关键。需要用一种全新的思路和评价方法对原位转化产出油气量进行评价，才能满足原位转化评价及勘探开发的需要。
由于发明人考虑到了如上技术问题，为了克服现有技术中存在的无法准确定量预测页岩油原位转化产出油气量的不足和缺陷，提出了一种页岩油原位转化产出油气量的评价(预测)方案，本发明还可准确评价预测页岩中滞留油气量、原位转化剩余生油气量。下面对本发明实施例涉及的页岩油原位转化(开发)产出油气量的预测方案进行详细介绍。
图1是本发明实施例中页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法的流程示意图，如图1所示，该方法包括如下步骤：
步骤101：获取待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量TOC值、镜质体反射率Ro值和原始氢指数HI值；
步骤102：根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型，得到待测页岩的产出油量；所述页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的产出油量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立；
步骤103：根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型，得到待测页岩的产出气量；所述页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的产出气量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立；所述多个不同页岩样品为Ro值小于0.5％的多个页岩样品。
本发明实施例提供的技术方案达到了如下有益技术效果：
首先，根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的产出油量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，预先建立了页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型；根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的产出气量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，预先建立了页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型，克服了现有技术只考虑页岩单因素建立模型的缺陷，可以更真实地获得页岩样品的相关油气参数，因此，应用该页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型和页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型，不仅实现了定量预测页岩油原位开发产出油气量，还提高了页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测精度。
其次，与现有技术中需要针对同一地区或层位、不同地区或层位的页岩模拟原位转化获得产出油量和产出气量，且需要把不同原始TOC、Ro、原始HI页岩样品都模拟后，才能得到待测页岩原位转化获得产出油量和产出气量，所需时间长、成本高的方案相比较，本发明实施例提供的技术方案，在获取到待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值和原始HI值后，根据上述预测精度高的页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型和页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型，实现了无需对待测页岩进行模拟实验即可得到待测页岩的页岩油原位开发产出油气量，提高了页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测效率。
综上，本发明实施例提供的技术方案实现了定量预测页岩油原位开发产出油气量，提高了页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测精度和效率。
下面在结合图2至图10，对本发明实施例涉及的各个步骤进行详细介绍。
一、首先，介绍建立各个模型前，对页岩样品进行热模拟实验的详细过程。
采集研究区目的层不同TOC值，Ro值小于0.5％的多组页岩样品，例如采集鄂尔多斯盆地长7段的露头页岩样品，不同TOC，Ro小于0.5％的9组页岩样品，分别将每组页岩样品粉碎成40～100目，优选地采用60目，并充分混合均匀，并将每组混合均匀的页岩样品分成12份，每份重量大于3kg。
分别测量得到每组粉碎并混合后的页岩样品的有机碳含量(TOC)，氢指数(HI)和镜质体反射率(Ro)(详见下表1)，每个取样点分别采集的页岩样品大于40kg，如果是露头页岩样品，页岩样品采集处位于地面5m以下，采集未风化页岩样品。
TOC是根据《沉积岩中总有机碳的测定》GB/T 19145-2003国家标准测量的；HI是根据《陆相烃源岩地球化学评价方法》SYT 5735-1995行业标准测量的；Ro是根据《沉积岩中镜质体反射率测定方法》SY/T 5124-2012行业标准测量的。
表1研究区目的层页岩样品特征参数
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000001
采用两套热模拟实验，即一套为页岩生烃量热模拟实验，另一套为滞留烃量与产出烃量热模拟实验。两套实验均采用相同预设压力5MPa和不同预设温度的半开放实验体系。将约2kg的样品装入反应釜并用20MPa压力反复压实，在模拟前称取反应釜页岩样品的质量，反应釜内抽真空并注入He。预设温度点11个，分别为250℃、300℃、320℃、335℃、350℃、360℃、390℃、440℃、500℃、540℃、580℃，涵盖了从油气开始生成到结束的不同阶段。第一个预设温度点250℃，在模拟温度200℃前采用程序升温速率20℃/d，200℃～250℃采用程序升温速率5℃/d；第2个到第11个预设温度点，在模拟温度达到前一个预设温度点前采用程序升温速率20℃/d，前1个预设温度点到当前预设温度点之间采用程序升温速率5℃/d；模拟温度达到预设温度后保持预设温度恒温10小时。排烃预设压力为7MPa，模拟过程中排出的油气量用于计算单位质量岩石的产出油气量；预测温度模拟结束后吹扫和抽提的油气量用于计算单位质量岩石的滞留油气量。
将每个样品点页岩作为一组，开展生烃量热模拟实验，在完成第一个预设温度后，收集到的排出和滞留油量、气量与模拟前样品的质量之比，为该样品第一个预设温度点单位质量岩石的剩余生油量和剩余生气量；将第一个预设温度点的热模拟样品抽提后开展第二个预设温度点热模拟，获得第二个预设温度点的单位质量岩石生油量和生气量，依次类推，完成所有预设温度点的热模拟。将9个页岩样品点分别开展生烃热模拟实验，并获得相应的单位质量岩石的生油量和生气量。在每一个预设温度点结束后，测量抽提后残留物的TOC等参数。
利用每个样品点页岩，分别开展11个预设温度的滞留与产出油气量热模拟实验，完成模拟后，收集到的产出油量和产出气量与对应反应釜内热模拟前样品质量之比，获得对应预设温度点的单位质量岩石的产出油量和产出气量；将吹扫和抽提的油量和气量，与对应反应釜内热模拟前样品质量之比，获得对应预设温度点的单位质量岩石的滞留油量和滞留气量。在每一个预设温度点结束后，测量抽提后残留物的TOC、HI和Ro，测量获得不同预设温度产出天然气的偏差系数(Z)平均值。
利用滞留烃量与产出烃量热模拟实验中，同一预设温度的不同页岩样品热模拟后的Ro平均值，建立热解模拟温度与Ro关系。页岩热模拟的剩余生油气量、滞留油气量和 产出油气量与Ro相关，为了便于对地层条件下的页岩热演化程度进行对应研究，将模拟温度转化为对应的Ro值。
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000002
式中：Ro为镜质体反射率，％；T为热解模拟温度，℃；a 1和b 1为经验系数，可以分别为：0.13797、0.005667。
具体实施时，上述公式(1)体现的关系可以如图2所示。
二、其次，介绍根据上述“一”描述的热模拟实验过程得到的数据，建立各个模型的过程。
1、首先介绍利用不同模拟温度获得的页岩Ro值、HI值、TOC值，建立原始TOC预测模型与原始HI预测模型的步骤。
上述多个不同页岩样品选用Ro值小于0.5％的多个页岩样品的原因是为了方便建立原始TOC预测模型与原始HI预测模型。具体理由为：Ro小于0.5％的页岩其中的有机质基本尚未发生油气转化，可称为原始状态，原位转化的剩余生油气量、滞留油气量和产出油气量评价采用原始TOC和原始HI，实际地层中适合原位转化的页岩不一定处于原始状态，需要将相关参数恢复到原始状态。通过HI变化率和TOC变化率，根据热模拟实验数据建立了原始TOC和原始HI评价模型(下述公式(2)：原始HI预测模型、下述公式(3)：原始TOC预测模型)，HI变化率是指页岩某一Ro值对应的HI与其原始HI比值，TOC变化率是指页岩某一Ro值对应的TOC与其原始TOC比值。
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000003
其中，HI o为待测页岩的原始氢指数值(待求)，mg/g.TOC；HI为对待测页岩进行测量得到的HI值(即页岩镜质体反射率为Ro时对应的氢指数)mg/g.TOC；Ro为对待测页岩进行测量得到的Ro值，a 2和b 2为经验系数，当Ro≤1.0％时，可以分别为5.4792、-3.0289，当Ro>1.0％时，可以分别为7.4206、-3.2742。
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000004
其中，HT＝10 -3×HI o×TOC o；
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000005
f(a 32)＝b 321Ro 2+b 322Ro+b 323；
其中，TOC o为待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量值(待求)，wt％；TOC为对待测页岩进行测量得到的TOC值，wt％(即页岩镜质体反射率为Ro时对应的总有机碳含量值)；Ro为对待测页岩进行测量得到的Ro值；HI o为待测页岩的原始氢指数值(可以根据上述公式(2)得到)，mg/g.TOC；b 311、b 312、b 313、b 314、b 315、b 321、b 322和b 323为经验系数，b 311、b 312、b 313、b 314、b 315可以分别为0.0324、0.0177、0.0064、-0.0356、0.0096；关于b 321、b 322和b 323：当Ro<1.0％时，可以分别为1.5838、1.5862、0.6134，当Ro≥1.0％时，可以分别为-0.0422、0.2407、0.3670。
具体实施时，本发明实施例提供方案克服了现有技术中只有提供模拟实验才能获得相关油气参数的缺陷，采用建立不同干酪根类型的页岩HI与Ro(HI与Ro的关系、模型参见图3所示)、TOC与Ro(TOC与Ro的关系、模型参见图4所示)的评价模型(原始HI预测模型和原始TOC预测模型)，在TOC预测模型中考虑了HI的变化影响，解决了不同干酪根类型页岩在不同演化程度条件下的原始HI、原始TOC预测难题，克服了现有技术中只能根据同一干酪根类型恢复原始TOC的缺陷。
具体实施时，干酪根类型是指页岩(烃源岩)中的有机质成分不同，造成其生油、生气能力不同，包括Ⅰ型、Ⅱ型、Ⅲ型三类，其中Ⅰ型干酪根以生油为主，Ⅱ型干酪根油气共生，Ⅲ型干酪根以生气为主。
2、其次介绍根据热模拟实验获得的剩余生油量、剩余生气量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，预先建立对应Ro、TOC、HI条件下的不同页岩剩余生油量和剩余生气量评价模型(页岩油原位开发剩余生油量预测模型和页岩油原位开发剩余生气量预测模型)的步骤。
页岩剩余生油量与页岩Ro、TOC和HI相关，根据热模拟实验结果建立剩余生油量评价模型(下述公式(4)，页岩油原位开发剩余生油量预测模型，具体体现关系如图5所示)。
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000006
其中，Q og为待测页岩的剩余生油量(待求)，kg/t.rock；Q ogs为热模拟实验页岩样品的总生油量(已知)，kg/t.rock；Ro为对待测页岩进行测量得到的Ro值，％；a 4和b 4为经验系数，可以分别为86.023、-5.232；TOC os为热模拟实验页岩样品(Q ogs对应页岩样品)的原始总有机碳含量值，wt％；HI os为热模拟实验页岩样品(Q ogs对应页岩样 品)的原始氢指数值，mg/g.TOC；TOC ot为待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量值，wt％；HI ot为待测页岩的原始氢指数值，mg/g.TOC。
页岩剩余生气量与页岩Ro、TOC和HI相关，根据热模拟实验数据建立剩余生气量评价模型(下述公式(5)，页岩油原位开发剩余生气量预测模型，具体体现如图6所示)。
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000007
其中，Q gg为待测页岩的剩余生气量(待求)，m 3/t.rock(20℃，1标准大气压)；Q ggs为热模拟实验页岩样品的总生气量(已知)，m 3/t.rock(20℃，1标准大气压)；Ro为对待测页岩进行测量得到的Ro值，％；TOC os为热模拟实验页岩样品的原始总有机碳含量值(已知)；HI os为热模拟实验页岩样品(Q ggs对应页岩样品)的原始氢指数值(已知)；TOC ot为待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量值(可以根据上述公式(3)求得)；HI ot为待测页岩的原始氢指数值(可以根据上述公式(2)求得)；a 51、a 52、a 53和b 51为经验系数，可以分别为-1.2157、2.0333、2.3623、-6.082。
具体实施时，本发明实施例还可以通过上述公式(3)和(4)，实现了准确预测原位转化剩余生油气量。
3、接着介绍根据热模拟实验获得的滞留油气量以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，建立滞留油气量评价模型(页岩油原位开发滞留油量预测模型和页岩油原位开发滞留气量预测模型)的步骤。
根据热模拟实验获得的滞留油量和TOC、Ro、HI数据，建立滞留油量评价模型(下述公式(6)，页岩油原位开发滞留油量预测模型，如图7所示)。
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000008
其中，Q os为待测页岩的滞留油量(待求)，kg/t.rock；Q og为热模拟实验页岩样品的剩余生油量(已知)；TOC o为待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量值(可以根据上述公式(3)求得)，wt％；f(a 6)、f(b 6)、f(c 6)、f(d 6)为与待测页岩的Ro值相关的校正系数，无量纲；B or为待测页岩所属研究区域的实际地层压力下的原油体积系数与模拟时所用压力下的原油体积系数的比值，无量纲；HI os为热模拟实验页岩样品的(Q og对应页 岩样品)原始氢指数值(可以根据上述公式(2)求得)；HI ot为待测页岩的原始氢指数值(可以根据上述公式(2)求得)。
其中，上述f(a 6)、f(b 6)、f(c 6)计算模型具有一致的f(abc)格式，但其中的经验参数(系数)不同。f(abc)＝a 61Ro+a 62；式中a 61和a 62为经验参数(系数)，无量纲。
其中，上述
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000009
式中d 61、d 62、d 63、d 64和d 65为经验系数，可以分别为0.5591、-0.2805、-0.0486、-0.1186、0.3411。
根据热模拟实验获得的滞留气量和TOC、Ro、HI数据，建立滞留气量评价模型(下述公式(7)，页岩油原位开发滞留气量预测模型，如图8所示)。
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000010
其中，
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000011
该公式中的TOC o与式(3)中的TOC o相同，与公式(4)、式(5)中的TOC ot相同，c 71、c 72、c 73和c 74为经验系数，可以分别为-0.0866、0.2948、0.00119、0.09075。
其中，
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000012
c 75、c 76、c 77、c 78、c 79、c 710、c 711、c 712和c 713为经验系数，可以分别为0.0273、-0.1717、6.9326、0.0401、6.5261、-0.00016、0.00655、-0.10797。
其中，Q gs为待测页岩的滞留气量(待求)，m 3/t.rock(20℃，1标准大气压)；Q gg为热模拟实验页岩样品的剩余生气量(已知)；f(a 7)和f(b 7)为与待测页岩的TOC o相关的校正系数，无量纲；B gir为待测页岩所属研究区域的实际地层温度、压力下的天然气偏差系数与模拟时所用温度、压力下的天然气偏差系数的比值，无量纲，HI os为热模拟实验页岩样品的(Q gg对应页岩样品)原始氢指数值(已知)；HI ot为待测页岩的原始氢指数值(可以根据上述公式(2)求得)；Ro为对待测页岩进行测量得到的Ro值。
具体实施时，本发明实例提供的方案克服了现有技术中只有提供模拟实验才能获得相关油气参数的缺陷，建立原始TOC与滞留油气量关系(页岩油原位开发滞留油量预测模型和页岩油原位开发滞留气量预测模型)，克服了现有技术无法评价(预测)不同原始TOC页岩滞留油气比例的缺陷，可以预测不同页岩原始TOC及Ro值对应的滞留油量、滞留气量。
4、最后介绍根据热模拟实验获得的产出油量数据以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，建立产出油气量评价模型(页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型和页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型)的步骤。
当页岩中滞留油量达到饱和后，剩余生油量主要是对产出油量的贡献，产出油量主要受页岩Ro和TOC、HI控制，随着Ro增大剩余生油量减小，产出油量也在减小；在相同Ro条件下，随着TOC和HI的增大剩余生油量增大，产出油量也在增大。
页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型(体现如图9所示)为：
Q po＝(Q os+Q og)×f(a 81)Ro 2+f(a 82)Ro+f(a 83)     (8)
其中f(a 81)、f(a 82)、f(a 83)计算模型为：f(a 8)＝c 81HT 3+c 82HT 2+c 83HT+c 84；
其中，Q po为待测页岩的产出油量(待求)，kg/t.rock；Q os为待测页岩的滞留油量；Q og为待测页岩的剩余生油量；Ro为对待测页岩进行测量得到的Ro值；f(a 81)、f(a 82)、f(a 83)为与待测页岩的Ro值相关的校正系数，HI o为待测页岩的原始氢指数值；TOC o为待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量值；c 81、c 82、c 83和c 84为经验系数。
产出气量主要受页岩Ro、TOC和HI控制，随着Ro增大而减小。主要受温度升高，天然气膨胀造成的天然气产出有关，根据热模拟实验数据建立了产出气量评价模型(下述公式(10)，页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型，如图10所示)。
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000013
其中，
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000014
f(b 91)＝c 916HT 2+c 917HT+c 918；
HT＝10 -3×HI o×TOC o；
其中，Q pg为待测页岩的产出气量(待求)，m 3/t.rock；Q gs为待测页岩的滞留气量；Q gg为页岩样品的剩余生气量；Ro为对待测页岩进行测量得到的Ro值；HI o为待测 页岩的原始氢指数值，mg/g.TOC；TOC o为待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量值，wt％；f(a 91)和f(b 91)为与待测页岩的Ro值相关的校正系数；c 911、c 912、c 913、c 914、c 915、c 916、c 917和c 918为经验系数，其中，c 911、c 912、c 913、c 914、c 915可以分别为：-105.345、152.70、4.461、56.335、-0.554；关于c 916、c 917和c 918，当Ro<1.25％时，可以分别为0.4796、-0.6434、0.3387，当1.25％≤Ro<2.35％时，可以分别为-0.2302、0.6061、-0.112，当Ro<1.25％时，可以分别为0.135、0.7559、1.0746。
具体实施时，本发明实例提供的技术方案通过上述公式(8)和(9)，实现了不同原始TOC及Ro页岩油原位转化出产油量和产出气量定量评价预测难题。
由于模拟原位转化条件下页岩产出油气量需要时间较长，对于没有热模拟实验数据的地区，可采用式(1)-(9)获得研究区的页岩油原位转化产出油气量数据，用于开展有利区和“甜点区”评价优选。
三、接着，介绍根据上述“二”建立各个模型进行页岩油原位开发预测的过程。
采集研究区目的层的TOC、HI和Ro数据，利用上述公式(1)～(9)获得该区目的层页岩油原位转化产出油气量。
在一个实施例中，获取待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量TOC值、镜质体反射率Ro值和原始氢指数HI值，可以包括：
根据对待测页岩进行测量得到的TOC值，Ro值，以及预先建立的原始TOC预测模型(可以是上述公式(3))，得到待测页岩的原始TOC值；所述原始TOC预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的TOC变化率预先建立；
根据对待测页岩进行测量得到的HI值，Ro值，以及预先建立的原始HI预测模型(可以是上述公式(2))，得到待测页岩的原始HI值；所述原始HI预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的HI变化率预先建立。
在一个实施例中，上述页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法还可以包括：
根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发剩余生油量预测模型(可以是上述公式(4))，得到待测页岩的剩余生油量；所述页岩油原位开发剩余生油量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的剩余生油量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立；
根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发剩余生气量预测模型(可以是上述公式(5))，得到待测页岩的剩余生气量；所述页岩 油原位开发剩余生气量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的剩余生气量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立。
在一个实施例中，上述页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法还可以包括：
根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发滞留油量预测模型(可以是上述公式(6))，得到待测页岩的滞留油量；所述页岩油原位开发滞留油量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的滞留油量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立；
根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发滞留气量预测模型(可以是上述公式(7))，得到待测页岩的滞留气量；所述页岩油原位开发滞留气量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的滞留气量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立。
由于模拟原位转化条件下页岩产出油气量需要时间较长，对于没有热模拟实验数据的地区，可采用式(1)～(9)获得研究区(待测页岩所属研究区域)的页岩油原位转化产出油气量数据，用于开展有利区和“甜点区”评价优选。
根据以上模型，可获得任意Ro、TOC、HI条件下的页岩生油气量、滞留油气量、产出油气量，实现了定量评价。
基于同一发明构思，本发明实施例中还提供了一种页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测装置，如下面的实施例所述。由于页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测装置解决问题的原理与页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法相似，因此页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测装置的实施可以参见页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法的实施，重复之处不再赘述。以下所使用的，术语“单元”或者“模块”可以实现预定功能的软件和/或硬件的组合。尽管以下实施例所描述的装置较佳地以软件来实现，但是硬件，或者软件和硬件的组合的实现也是可能并被构想的。
图11是本发明实施例中页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测装置的结构示意图，如图11所示，该装置包括：
获取单元02，用于获取待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量TOC值、镜质体反射率Ro值和原始氢指数HI值；
产出油量预测单元04，用于根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型，得到待测页岩的产出油量；所述页岩 油原位开发产出油量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的产出油量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立；
产出气量预测单元06，用于根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型，得到待测页岩的产出气量；所述页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的产出气量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立。
在一个实施例中，所述获取单元具体可以用于：
根据对待测页岩进行测量得到的TOC值，Ro值，以及预先建立的原始TOC预测模型，得到待测页岩的原始TOC值；所述原始TOC预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的TOC变化率预先建立；
根据对待测页岩进行测量得到的HI值，Ro值，以及预先建立的原始HI预测模型，得到待测页岩的原始HI值；所述原始HI预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的HI变化率预先建立。
在一个实施例中，所述原始HI预测模型可以为：
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000015
其中，HI o为待测页岩的原始氢指数值；HI为对待测页岩进行测量得到的HI值；Ro为对待测页岩进行测量得到的Ro值，a 2和b 2为经验系数。
在一个实施例中，所述原始TOC预测模型可以为：
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000016
其中，HT＝10 -3×HI o×TOC o；
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000017
f(a 32)＝b 321Ro 2+b 322Ro+b 323；
TOC o为待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量值；TOC为对待测页岩进行测量得到的TOC值；Ro为对待测页岩进行测量得到的Ro值；HI o为待测页岩的原始氢指数值；b 311、b 312、b 313、b 314、b 315、b 321、b 322和b 323为经验系数。
在一个实施例中，上述页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测装置还可以包括：
剩余生油量预测单元，用于根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发剩余生油量预测模型，得到待测页岩的剩余生油量；所述页岩油原位开发剩余生油量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的剩余生油量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立；
剩余生气量预测单元，用于根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发剩余生气量预测模型，得到待测页岩的剩余生气量；所述页岩油原位开发剩余生气量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的剩余生气量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立。
在一个实施例中，所述页岩油原位开发剩余生油量预测模型可以为：
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000018
其中，Q og为待测页岩的剩余生油量；Q ogs为热模拟实验页岩样品的总生油量；Ro为对待测页岩进行测量得到的Ro值；a 4和b 4为经验系数；TOC os为热模拟实验页岩样品的原始总有机碳含量值；HI os为热模拟实验页岩样品的原始氢指数值；TOC ot为待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量值；HI ot为待测页岩的原始氢指数值。
在一个实施例中，所述页岩油原位开发剩余生气量预测模型可以为：
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000019
其中，Q gg为待测页岩的剩余生气量；Q ggs为热模拟实验页岩样品的总生气量；Ro为对待测页岩进行测量得到的Ro值；TOC os为热模拟实验页岩样品的原始总有机碳含量值；HI os为热模拟实验页岩样品的原始氢指数值；TOC ot为待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量值；HI ot为待测页岩的原始氢指数值；a 51、a 52、a 53和b 51为经验系数。
在一个实施例中，上述页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测装置还可以包括：
滞留油量预测单元，用于根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发滞留油量预测模型，得到待测页岩的滞留油量；所述页岩油原位开发滞留油量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的滞留油量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立；
滞留气量预测单元，用于根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发滞留气量预测模型，得到待测页岩的滞留气量；所述页岩油原 位开发滞留气量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的滞留气量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立。
在一个实施例中，所述页岩油原位开发滞留油量预测模型可以为：
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000020
其中，Q os为待测页岩的滞留油量；Q og为热模拟实验页岩样品的剩余生油量；TOC o为待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量值；f(a 6)、f(b 6)、f(c 6)、f(d 6)为与待测页岩的Ro值相关的校正系数；B or为待测页岩所属研究区域的实际地层压力下的原油体积系数与模拟时所用压力下的原油体积系数的比值；HI os为热模拟实验页岩样品的原始氢指数值；HI ot为待测页岩的原始氢指数值。
在一个实施例中，所述页岩油原位开发滞留气量预测模型可以为：
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000021
其中，Q gs为待测页岩的滞留气量；Q gg为热模拟实验页岩样品的剩余生气量；f(a 7)和f(b 7)为与待测页岩的TOC o相关的校正系数；B gir为待测页岩所属研究区域的实际地层温度、压力下的天然气偏差系数与模拟时所用温度、压力下的天然气偏差系数的比值，HI os为热模拟实验页岩样品的原始氢指数值；HI ot为待测页岩的原始氢指数值；Ro为对待测页岩进行测量得到的Ro值。
在一个实施例中，所述页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型可以为：
Q po＝(Q os+Q og)×f(a 81)Ro 2+f(a 82)Ro+f(a 83)
f(a 8)＝c 81HT 3+c 82HT 2+c 83HT+c 84；
HT＝10 -3×HI o×TOC o；
其中，Q po为待测页岩的产出油量；Q os为待测页岩的滞留油量；Q og为待测页岩的剩余生油量；Ro为对待测页岩进行测量得到的Ro值；f(a 81)、f(a 82)、f(a 83)为与待测页岩的Ro值相关的校正系数，HI o为待测页岩的原始氢指数值；TOC o为待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量值；c 81、c 82、c 83和c 84为经验系数。
在一个实施例中，所述页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型可以为：
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000022
其中，
Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-000023
f(b 91)＝c 916HT 2+c 917HT+c 918；
HT＝10 -3×HI o×TOC o；
Q pg为待测页岩的产出气量；Q gs为待测页岩的滞留气量；Q gg为待测页岩的剩余生气量；Ro为对待测页岩进行测量得到的Ro值；HI o为待测页岩的原始氢指数值；TOC o为待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量值；f(a 91)和f(b 91)为与待测页岩的Ro值相关的校正系数；c 911、c 912、c 913、c 914、c 915、c 916、c 917和c 918为经验系数。
本发明实施例还提供了一种计算机设备，包括存储器、处理器及存储在存储器上并可在处理器上运行的计算机程序，所述处理器执行所述计算机程序时实现上述页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法。
本发明实施例还提供了一种计算机可读存储介质，所述计算机可读存储介质存储有执行上述页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法的计算机程序。
本发明实施例提供的技术方案达到如下有益技术效果：
本发明实施例提供的技术方案采用页岩原始TOC、原始HI、Ro建立生油量、生气量、滞留油量、滞留气量、产出油量和产出气量模型，克服了现有技术只考虑页岩单因素建立模型的缺陷，可以更真实的获得页岩样品的相关油气参数，克服了现有技术中根据不同TOC分别建立模型，不能考虑不同干酪根类型之间的差异的缺陷。根据一个页岩样品的原始TOC、原始HI、Ro的热模拟结果标定，在获得被评价(待测)页岩的原始TOC、原始HI、Ro参数后，可以准确获得被评价页岩的生油量、生气量、滞留油量、滞留气量、产出油量和产出气量，且能够满足页岩油原位转化评价需要，克服了现有技术中只有提供模拟实验才能获得相关油气参数的缺陷；建立原始TOC与滞留油气量关系，克服了现有技术无法评价不同原始TOC页岩滞留油气比例缺陷；采用建立不同干酪根类型的页岩HI与Ro、TOC与Ro的预测模型，在TOC预测模型中考虑了HI的变化影响，解决了不同干酪根类型页岩在不同演化程度条件下的原始HI、原始TOC预测难题，克服了现有技术中只能根据同一干酪根类型恢复原始TOC的缺陷。本发明提供的技术方案解决了不同页岩原始TOC及Ro滞留油量、滞留气量，不同原始TOC及Ro页岩油原位转化出产油量和产出气量定量评价预测难题，提高了页岩油原位转化产出油气量 预测精度，能够满足页岩油原位转化产出油气量评价预测、页岩油气含油气量评价预测、油气资源评价等需要。
由于同一地区或层位、不同地区或层位的页岩原始TOC、Ro、原始HI等特性参数均存在很大的不同，模拟原位转化条件获得产出油量和产出气量所需时间长，且需要把不同原始TOC、Ro、原始HI页岩样品都模拟后才能得到评价研究区目的层页岩油原位转化“甜点区”评价的可靠数据，所需时间很长、成本高。在获取研究区目的层页岩的原始TOC、Ro、原始HI参数后，利用本发明获得的定量评价(预测)模型，可以准确获得研究区目的层的页岩的生油量、生气量、滞留油量、滞留气量、产出油量和产出气量，可以快速进行页岩油原位转化“甜点区”评价优选。
综上，本发明实施例提供的技术方案实现了定量预测页岩油原位开发产出油气量，提高了页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测精度和效率。
本领域内的技术人员应明白，本发明的实施例可提供为方法、系统、或计算机程序产品。因此，本发明可采用完全硬件实施例、完全软件实施例、或结合软件和硬件方面的实施例的形式。而且，本发明可采用在一个或多个其中包含有计算机可用程序代码的计算机可用存储介质(包括但不限于磁盘存储器、CD-ROM、光学存储器等)上实施的计算机程序产品的形式。
本发明是参照根据本发明实施例的方法、设备(系统)、和计算机程序产品的流程图和/或方框图来描述的。应理解可由计算机程序指令实现流程图和/或方框图中的每一流程和/或方框、以及流程图和/或方框图中的流程和/或方框的结合。可提供这些计算机程序指令到通用计算机、专用计算机、嵌入式处理机或其他可编程数据处理设备的处理器以产生一个机器，使得通过计算机或其他可编程数据处理设备的处理器执行的指令产生用于实现在流程图一个流程或多个流程和/或方框图一个方框或多个方框中指定的功能的装置。
这些计算机程序指令也可存储在能引导计算机或其他可编程数据处理设备以特定方式工作的计算机可读存储器中，使得存储在该计算机可读存储器中的指令产生包括指令装置的制造品，该指令装置实现在流程图一个流程或多个流程和/或方框图一个方框或多个方框中指定的功能。
这些计算机程序指令也可装载到计算机或其他可编程数据处理设备上，使得在计算机或其他可编程设备上执行一系列操作步骤以产生计算机实现的处理，从而在计算机或 其他可编程设备上执行的指令提供用于实现在流程图一个流程或多个流程和/或方框图一个方框或多个方框中指定的功能的步骤。
以上所述仅为本发明的优选实施例而已，并不用于限制本发明，对于本领域的技术人员来说，本发明实施例可以有各种更改和变化。凡在本发明的精神和原则之内，所作的任何修改、等同替换、改进等，均应包含在本发明的保护范围之内。

Claims (18)

  1. 一种页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法，其特征在于，包括：
    获取待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量TOC值、镜质体反射率Ro值和原始氢指数HI值；
    根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型，得到待测页岩的产出油量；所述页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的产出油量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立；
    根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型，得到待测页岩的产出气量；所述页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的产出气量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立。
  2. 如权利要求1所述的页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法，其特征在于，获取待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量TOC值、镜质体反射率Ro值和原始氢指数HI值，包括：
    根据对待测页岩进行测量得到的TOC值，Ro值，以及预先建立的原始TOC预测模型，得到待测页岩的原始TOC值；所述原始TOC预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的TOC变化率预先建立；
    根据对待测页岩进行测量得到的HI值，Ro值，以及预先建立的原始HI预测模型，得到待测页岩的原始HI值；所述原始HI预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的HI变化率预先建立。
  3. 如权利要求2所述的页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法，其特征在于，所述原始HI预测模型为：
    Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-100001
    其中，HI o为待测页岩的原始氢指数值；HI为对待测页岩进行测量得到的HI值；Ro为对待测页岩进行测量得到的Ro值，a 2和b 2为经验系数。
  4. 如权利要求2所述的页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法，其特征在于，所述原始TOC预测模型为：
    Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-100002
    其中，HT＝10 -3×HI o×TOC o；
    Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-100003
    f(a 32)＝b 321Ro 2+b 322Ro+b 323；
    TOC o为待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量值；TOC为对待测页岩进行测量得到的TOC值；Ro为对待测页岩进行测量得到的Ro值；HI o为待测页岩的原始氢指数值；b 311、b 312、b 313、b 314、b 315、b 321、b 322和b 323为经验系数。
  5. 如权利要求1所述的页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法，其特征在于，还包括：
    根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发剩余生油量预测模型，得到待测页岩的剩余生油量；所述页岩油原位开发剩余生油量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的剩余生油量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立；
    根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发剩余生气量预测模型，得到待测页岩的剩余生气量；所述页岩油原位开发剩余生气量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的剩余生气量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立。
  6. 如权利要求5所述的页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法，其特征在于，所述页岩油原位开发剩余生油量预测模型为：
    Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-100004
    其中，Q og为待测页岩的剩余生油量；Q ogs为热模拟实验页岩样品的总生油量；Ro为对待测页岩进行测量得到的Ro值；a 4和b 4为经验系数；TOC os为热模拟实验页岩样品的原始总有机碳含量值；HI os为热模拟实验页岩样品的原始氢指数值；TOC ot为待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量值；HI ot为待测页岩的原始氢指数值。
  7. 如权利要求5所述的页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法，其特征在于，所述页岩油原位开发剩余生气量预测模型为：
    Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-100005
    其中，Q gg为待测页岩的剩余生气量；Q ggs为热模拟实验页岩样品的总生气量；Ro为对待测页岩进行测量得到的Ro值；TOC os为热模拟实验页岩样品的原始总有机碳含量值；HI os为热模拟实验页岩样品的原始氢指数值；TOC ot为待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量值；HI ot为待测页岩的原始氢指数值；a 51、a 52、a 53和b 51为经验系数。
  8. 如权利要求1所述的页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法，其特征在于，还包括：
    根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发滞留油量预测模型，得到待测页岩的滞留油量；所述页岩油原位开发滞留油量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的滞留油量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立；
    根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发滞留气量预测模型，得到待测页岩的滞留气量；所述页岩油原位开发滞留气量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的滞留气量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立。
  9. 如权利要求8所述的页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法，其特征在于，所述页岩油原位开发滞留油量预测模型为：
    Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-100006
    其中，Q os为待测页岩的滞留油量；Q og为热模拟实验页岩样品的剩余生油量；TOC o为待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量值；f(a 6)、f(b 6)、f(c 6)、f(d 6)为与待测页岩的Ro值相关的校正系数；B or为待测页岩所属研究区域的实际地层压力下的原油体积系数与模拟时所用压力下的原油体积系数的比值；HI os为热模拟实验页岩样品的原始氢指数值；HI ot为待测页岩的原始氢指数值。
  10. 如权利要求8所述的页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法，其特征在于，所述页岩油原位开发滞留气量预测模型为：
    Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-100007
    其中，Q gs为待测页岩的滞留气量；Q gg为热模拟实验页岩样品的剩余生气量；f(a 7)和f(b 7)为与待测页岩的TOC o相关的校正系数；B gir为待测页岩所属研究区域的实际地层温度、压力下的天然气偏差系数与模拟时所用温度、压力下的天然气偏差系数的比值，HI os为热模拟实验页岩样品的原始氢指数值；HI ot为待测页岩的原始氢指数值；Ro为对待测页岩进行测量得到的Ro值。
  11. 如权利要求1所述的页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法，其特征在于，所述页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型为：
    Q po＝(Q os+Q og)×f(a 81)Ro 2+f(a 82)Ro+f(a 83)；
    f(a 8)＝c 81HT 3+c 82HT 2+c 83HT+c 84；
    HT＝10 -3×HI o×TOC o；
    其中，Q po为待测页岩的产出油量；Q os为待测页岩的滞留油量；Q og为待测页岩的剩余生油量；Ro为对待测页岩进行测量得到的Ro值；f(a 81)、f(a 82)、f(a 83)为与待测页岩的Ro值相关的校正系数，HI o为待测页岩的原始氢指数值；TOC o为待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量值；c 81、c 82、c 83和c 84为经验系数。
  12. 如权利要求1所述的页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测方法，其特征在于，所述页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型为：
    Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-100008
    其中，
    Figure PCTCN2020076346-appb-100009
    f(b 91)＝c 916HT 2+c 917HT+c 918；
    HT＝10 -3×HI o×TOC o；
    Q pg为待测页岩的产出气量；Q gs为待测页岩的滞留气量；Q gg为待测页岩的剩余生气量；Ro为对待测页岩进行测量得到的Ro值；HI o为待测页岩的原始氢指数值；TOC o为待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量值；f(a 91)和f(b 91)为与待测页岩的Ro值相关的校正系数；c 911、c 912、c 913、c 914、c 915、c 916、c 917和c 918为经验系数。
  13. 一种页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测装置，其特征在于，包括：
    获取单元，用于获取待测页岩的原始总有机碳含量TOC值、镜质体反射率Ro值和原始氢指数HI值；
    产出油量预测单元，用于根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型，得到待测页岩的产出油量；所述页岩油原位开发产出油量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的产出油量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立；
    产出气量预测单元，用于根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型，得到待测页岩的产出气量；所述页岩油原位开发产出气量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的产出气量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立。
  14. 如权利要求13所述的页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测装置，其特征在于，所述获取单元具体用于：
    根据对待测页岩进行测量得到的TOC值，Ro值，以及预先建立的原始TOC预测模型，得到待测页岩的原始TOC值；所述原始TOC预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的TOC变化率预先建立；
    根据对待测页岩进行测量得到的HI值，Ro值，以及预先建立的原始HI预测模型，得到待测页岩的原始HI值；所述原始HI预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的HI变化率预先建立。
  15. 如权利要求13所述的页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测装置，其特征在于，还包括：
    剩余生油量预测单元，用于根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发剩余生油量预测模型，得到待测页岩的剩余生油量；所述页岩油原位开发剩余生油量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的剩余生油量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立；
    剩余生气量预测单元，用于根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发剩余生气量预测模型，得到待测页岩的剩余生气量；所述页岩油原位开发剩余生气量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的剩余生气量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立。
  16. 如权利要求13所述的页岩油原位开发产出油气量的预测装置，其特征在于，还包括：
    滞留油量预测单元，用于根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发滞留油量预测模型，得到待测页岩的滞留油量；所述页岩油原 位开发滞留油量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的滞留油量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立；
    滞留气量预测单元，用于根据待测页岩的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值，以及预先建立的页岩油原位开发滞留气量预测模型，得到待测页岩的滞留气量；所述页岩油原位开发滞留气量预测模型为：根据对多个不同页岩样品进行热模拟实验获得的滞留气量数据，以及页岩样品的原始TOC值、Ro值、原始HI值预先建立。
  17. 一种计算机设备，包括存储器、处理器及存储在存储器上并可在处理器上运行的计算机程序，其特征在于，所述处理器执行所述计算机程序时实现权利要求1至12任一所述方法。
  18. 一种计算机可读存储介质，其特征在于，所述计算机可读存储介质存储有执行权利要求1至12任一所述方法的计算机程序。
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