WO2019205528A1 - Antenna data-based algorithm for predicting solar energy collection power of wireless sensor network node - Google Patents

Antenna data-based algorithm for predicting solar energy collection power of wireless sensor network node Download PDF

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WO2019205528A1
WO2019205528A1 PCT/CN2018/111550 CN2018111550W WO2019205528A1 WO 2019205528 A1 WO2019205528 A1 WO 2019205528A1 CN 2018111550 W CN2018111550 W CN 2018111550W WO 2019205528 A1 WO2019205528 A1 WO 2019205528A1
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weather
day
solar energy
energy collection
time slot
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PCT/CN2018/111550
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French (fr)
Chinese (zh)
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孙力娟
任恒毅
韩崇
郭剑
肖甫
王娟
周剑
王汝传
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南京邮电大学
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Priority to KR1020207033814A priority Critical patent/KR102439722B1/en
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/04Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
    • GPHYSICS
    • G01MEASURING; TESTING
    • G01WMETEOROLOGY
    • G01W1/00Meteorology
    • G01W1/02Instruments for indicating weather conditions by measuring two or more variables, e.g. humidity, pressure, temperature, cloud cover or wind speed
    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06Electricity, gas or water supply
    • H02J3/383
    • HELECTRICITY
    • H04ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
    • H04WWIRELESS COMMUNICATION NETWORKS
    • H04W84/00Network topologies
    • H04W84/18Self-organising networks, e.g. ad-hoc networks or sensor networks
    • HELECTRICITY
    • H02GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02JCIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J2300/00Systems for supplying or distributing electric power characterised by decentralized, dispersed, or local generation
    • H02J2300/20The dispersed energy generation being of renewable origin
    • H02J2300/22The renewable source being solar energy
    • H02J2300/24The renewable source being solar energy of photovoltaic origin
    • YGENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02ATECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02A30/00Adapting or protecting infrastructure or their operation
    • YGENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02ATECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02A90/00Technologies having an indirect contribution to adaptation to climate change
    • Y02A90/10Information and communication technologies [ICT] supporting adaptation to climate change, e.g. for weather forecasting or climate simulation
    • YGENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02DCLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES IN INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES [ICT], I.E. INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES AIMING AT THE REDUCTION OF THEIR OWN ENERGY USE
    • Y02D30/00Reducing energy consumption in communication networks
    • Y02D30/70Reducing energy consumption in communication networks in wireless communication networks
    • YGENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02EREDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
    • Y02E10/00Energy generation through renewable energy sources
    • Y02E10/50Photovoltaic [PV] energy
    • Y02E10/56Power conversion systems, e.g. maximum power point trackers

Definitions

  • the invention relates to a wireless sensor network node solar energy collection power prediction algorithm based on weather data, and belongs to the field of wireless sensor networks.
  • Wireless Sensor Network is a wireless network composed of a large number of stationary or mobile sensors in a self-organizing and multi-hop manner. Due to their low cost and high maneuverability, WSNs have become more and more popular in the past, and they can complete many application scenarios that traditional cable or wired networks cannot handle, such as smart home, radiation monitoring, microscopic observation of biomes and intelligent transportation.
  • the basic composition of the WSN is the sensor node, and the researchers distribute it in the monitoring area by means of fixed point placement or random throwing.
  • the conventional sensor node mainly includes four modules of data acquisition, data processing, data transmission and power supply, wherein the power module is responsible for providing energy to the other three modules.
  • Power management of resource-constrained embedded systems remains a serious challenge in the face of a mismatch in growth between batteries and other embedded system components. Due to the remote scene deployment of the WSN and the lack of reliable power, sensors in the network typically rely on batteries to provide energy to achieve their intended tasks. Battery-powered WSNs, regardless of their energy efficiency, will eventually cause the network to fail due to limited power supply unless the battery is replaced. If the network is deployed in a harsh environment or an unreachable scenario, battery replacement is even more expensive and can't even be realized. A promising solution to this problem is to use environmental energy harvesting technology with batteries. The common environmental energy that can be collected and utilized is solar energy, vibration energy, wind energy, noise, and the like. Solar energy is widely used because of its high energy density and easy collection.
  • energy prediction is the premise of other problem design, because whether it is energy management or routing protocol, energy consumption must be considered in design, that is, its performance level is specified according to the available energy. Since the available energy of the WSN with energy harvesting technology includes the remaining energy and the environmental energy collected in a certain period of time, in order to know the available energy, it must be able to predict the environmental energy collected in a certain period of time in the future.
  • WSN with environmental energy harvesting technology can theoretically continue to operate because environmental energy harvesting technology can collect environmental energy to supplement sensor consumption.
  • the main reason is the dependence on uncontrollable solar energy. Solar energy is difficult to simulate and predict due to meteorological factors. Time and space changes make it exhibit high short-term fluctuations.
  • the uncertainty of the amount of energy radiated by the solar energy to the surface causes the uncertainty of the energy collected by the node, making it difficult for energy management of the WSN to achieve energy neutral operation (ENO), that is, the energy consumption of the system is less than or equal to the environment within a certain period of time.
  • ENO energy neutral operation
  • WSN usually uses highly variable environmental energy by dynamically adjusting the performance level of the system at runtime. If the system is running at the lowest performance level, ENO can be realized, but energy is wasted, and the system is difficult at this time. Meet most of the mission requirements; if the system is running at a higher performance level, it is likely that the energy collected by the environment is less than the system energy consumption, and the network life is terminated prematurely. Therefore, reasonable energy management is an important condition for WSN to operate permanently.
  • the premise of energy management is to know the available energy of the system, that is, to predict the environmental energy collected in a certain period of time in the future.
  • the invention provides a solar energy collection node solar energy collection prediction algorithm based on weather data, which can accurately predict the collection power of a wireless sensor network node with a solar energy collection function while using a small space and time. And it realizes the accurate prediction of the node solar energy collection in the scene with significant weather changes, and at the same time can achieve very high prediction accuracy in the scenes with significant weather changes and smooth weather changes.
  • the solar data collection power prediction algorithm of the wireless sensor network node based on the weather data according to the present invention, the specific execution steps are as follows:
  • Step 1 Select the real-time weather type data and solar energy collection data of the past 5 years in the monitoring area, and divide the weather type into 6 types, which are sunny (C), sunny (PC), and cloud (SC). Cloudy (MCI), cloudy (O), rain and snow (RS); statistically process the solar energy collected in different time slots of different weather types, and map the magnification relationship to the weather according to the magnification relationship between the weather data.
  • Type value index W proceeds to step 2;
  • the prediction data W(d, i) is compared, and the weather change coefficient WCS of the two days before and after is obtained, and the process proceeds to step 3;
  • Step 3 w t is a threshold value reflecting whether the weather has changed significantly.
  • the size is obtained by analyzing the historical real-time weather type data and the collected power data of the node, and comparing WCS with w t ; if
  • Step 4 First consider the case where the weather of the day is basically the same as the previous day, and adopt the idea of WCMA algorithm;
  • M D is the average value of the energy collection value of the ith time slot of the D day in front of the wireless sensor network node,
  • N [n 1 , n 2 ,,, n k ] is a 1 ⁇ k matrix that records the weather changes of the first k time slots of the time slot to be predicted, where n j is calculated;
  • V [v 1 ,v 2 ,,,v k ] is used to reflect the weight, where v j is calculated by calculation, and finally calculates the degree of weather change reflecting the predicted day and the previous day (by historical collection of predicted locations) The power data is determined); at this time, the solar energy acquisition prediction value can be directly calculated, and then jumps to step 7;
  • Step 5 When predicting a significant change in the weather between the day and the previous day, use the actual weather forecast data for the day of the forecast to correct the prediction error;
  • WF [wf 1 , wf 2 , ,, wf k ] is a 1 ⁇ k matrix,
  • wf j is calculated by the weather forecast data, and finally calculate the time slot i and the previous k-1 times when the weather changes significantly.
  • the degree of weather change of the time slot proceeds to step 6;
  • Step 6 When the weather changes significantly, it is divided into two cases, namely, the weather is significantly better and the weather is significantly worse; the effects of the two cases on the solar energy collection are corrected by the constants a and b; finally, the weather is calculated.
  • Step 7 Feed the prediction results back to the sensor node for energy management.
  • the calculation formula of the weather change coefficient WCS of the two days is:
  • W(d,i) is the weather type index of the i-th time slot on day d.
  • the WCMA algorithm is described by comparing the change in the energy value of the previous time slot of the current day and the value of the energy collection value M D of the corresponding time slot of the previous D day to reflect the change of the weather condition.
  • E(d, i) is the actual observed value of the solar energy collected in the ith time slot on day d
  • is the weighting factor
  • M D (d, i) is the average value of the solar energy collected in the previous D-day time slot i
  • GAP y (i) refers to the weather change of the corresponding time slot of the current time slot and the past D days, and the calculation formula is as follows:
  • the V in the above formula is the weight, and the larger j is, the larger the weight v j will be, as follows:
  • V [v 1 ,v 2 ,,,v k ]
  • N is a 1 ⁇ k matrix that records the weather changes of the first k time slots of the time slot to be predicted, as follows:
  • N [n 1 ,n 2 ,,,n k ]
  • n j in step 4 is calculated by:
  • the GAP x (i) is defined as the weather change of the corresponding time slot of the day slot and the past D day, and ⁇ is a significant change of the weather, and ⁇ >0 is defined as the weather significant change.
  • the solar energy collection power is greatly increased, and ⁇ 0 is a significant deterioration in the weather.
  • the solar energy collection is greatly reduced, as shown in the following equation:
  • WC (i) is the weather two days before and after The change is as follows:
  • WF is a 1 ⁇ k matrix, which is used to store the time slots to be predicted and the weather changes of the previous k-1 time slots.
  • the specific calculation of wf 1 , wf 2 ⁇ wf k is as follows:
  • WF [wf 1 ,wf 2 ,,,wf k ]
  • V is introduced as a 1 ⁇ k matrix to represent the weight; wherein, the larger j is, the larger the weight v j is, that is, the closer to the weather change of the time slot to be predicted, the more important Shown as follows:
  • V [v 1 ,v 2 ,,,v k ]
  • the WF is multiplied by V and divided by the sum of V, and the final result is determined as the weather change condition WC(i).
  • the final prediction algorithm is as follows:
  • w t is a threshold reflecting whether the weather has changed significantly
  • the size of w t is obtained by analyzing historical real-time weather type data and node collected power data.
  • the invention proposes a solar sensor network node solar energy collection prediction algorithm based on weather data.
  • the method can accurately predict the collected power of the wireless sensor network node with solar energy collection function while using less space and time.
  • Figure 1 is a comparison of collected power for 24 time slots in winter.
  • Figure 2 shows the correspondence between weather type indices for different weather types in different time slots in winter.
  • Figure 3 shows the energy curve of solar energy acquisition predicted by EWMA, WCMA algorithm.
  • Figure 4 is a flow chart of the algorithm for predicting solar energy collection.
  • the invention aims at the energy management efficiency of the existing wireless sensor network node with solar energy collection function is too low, and the conventional solar energy acquisition prediction algorithm cannot adapt to the problem of scenes with frequent weather changes, and proposes to introduce weather data of weather forecast to Solar energy harvesting power prediction algorithm.
  • the method firstly analyzes the relationship between the weather change and the collected power of the node, and quantifies the influence of the weather on the collected power. Secondly, it divides the weather change into three kinds: no significant change, the weather is significantly better, and the weather is significantly worse. The collected power predictions for each case are discussed separately.
  • the method not only can effectively solve the influence of weather changes on the prediction results, improve the accuracy of the prediction results, and improve the applicability of the algorithm. It can achieve good prediction results in different climate characteristics.
  • the method is mainly divided into three parts. One is to analyze the relationship between different weather types and solar energy collection; the second is to calculate and analyze the weather changes on the day and the previous day; the third is to calculate the solar energy collected according to different weather changes. Predictive value.
  • the degree of influence of weather patterns in different seasons on solar energy collection is also different.
  • the data is divided into four parts: spring, summer, autumn and winter. These influencing factors are mapped to the weather type index to reflect the influence of weather type on solar energy collection.
  • the weather types are divided into six types: sunny (C), sunny (PC), cloudy (SC), cloudy (MCI), cloudy (O), and rain (RS).
  • C sunny
  • PC cloudy
  • SC cloudy
  • MCI cloudy
  • O cloudy
  • RS rain
  • the amount of collection in different time periods of the day is significantly different, and the day is divided into 24 time slots with 1 hour as 1 time slot.
  • the solar energy collection power of different time slots of different weather types is statistically processed (Fig. 1 shows the comparison of the collected power of 24 time slots in winter).
  • the magnification relationship is mapped to the weather type index. It can be concluded from Fig.
  • the weather type index of the 11-17 time slot is the magnification relationship between the weather data
  • the rest of the weather type index of the gap is the mean of all time slots. Due to the large amount of data on cloudy days, the weather type index W is set to unit 1, and the rest of the weather type index is equivalently converted on a cloudy basis.
  • Figure 2 shows the different weather types of different time slots in a certain winter scene. Weather type index correspondence.
  • the EWMA algorithm has higher accuracy when the weather in the predicted location is basically unchanged, and the WCMA algorithm corrects the defect that the EWMA algorithm cannot adapt to the weather change, so that the algorithm can predict the weather change. With high precision. However, when the weather in the predicted location changes drastically, such as when the cloudy day turns sunny, WCMA still has a higher error.
  • the idea of the present invention is based on WCMA, which introduces real-time weather on the network to improve the defect that EWMA and WCMA cannot adapt to the significant change of weather in the predicted location.
  • the calculation of the weather adjustment factor GAP(i) should be considered in many aspects. If the forecast is basically the same, significant change, and drastic change compared with the previous day's weather conditions, the solar energy collection will change differently, and the weather conditions are not a simple linear relationship with the solar power collection power, so it is necessary to consider the situation. . On this basis, it is necessary to consider how to discern the changes in the weather conditions on the day of the forecast and the previous day. Through the analysis of historical data, it is found that the main factors that determine the quality of the day's weather conditions or the level of solar energy collection are the weather conditions at noon and afternoon.
  • W(d,i) is the weather type index of the i-th time slot on day d.
  • FIG. 3 shows the EWMA, WCMA algorithm predicted energy curve and daily mean error (1 hour per time slot).
  • the analysis shows that the WCMA algorithm reduces the prediction error compared with the EWMA algorithm, but there is still a large error when the weather changes significantly.
  • the prediction error of the algorithm for different weather changes is different.
  • the weather from sunny to cloudy weather has a very large prediction error; the weather from cloudy to sunny is more predictive; and the current two days are basically the same, the prediction error is very small. Therefore, considering the classification of different weather changes, there are two main categories, that is, the weather changes significantly and the weather does not change significantly, which is represented by GAP x and GAP y respectively.
  • WC(i) is the weather change for the first two days, as shown in formula (3).
  • WF is a 1 ⁇ k matrix, which is used to store the time interval of the time slot to be predicted and the previous k-1 time slots.
  • the calculation of specific wf 1 , wf 2 , , and wf k is as shown in formula (4). ⁇ (5).
  • WF [wf 1 ,wf 2 ,,,wf k ] (4)
  • V [v 1 ,v 2 ,,,v k ] (6)
  • the WF is multiplied by V and divided by the sum of V, and the final result is determined as the weather change condition WC(i).
  • E(d, i) is the actual observed value of the solar energy collected in the ith time slot on day d
  • is the weighting factor
  • M D (d, i) is the average value of the solar energy collected in the previous D-day time slot i
  • GAP y (i) refers to the weather change of the corresponding time slot of the current time slot and the past D days. Specifically, it is as shown in formulas (9) to (10).
  • the weight in the formula (13) is the weight, and the larger the j, the larger the weight v j , as in the formulas (6) to (7).
  • N is a 1 ⁇ k matrix that records the weather changes of the first k time slots of the time slot to be predicted, as in equations (11)–(12).
  • N [n 1 ,n 2 ,,,n k ] (11)
  • w t is a threshold reflecting whether the weather has changed significantly
  • the size of w t is obtained by analyzing historical real-time weather type data and node collected power data.
  • This method is mainly to predict the specific process of solar energy collection.
  • Step 1 Select the real-time weather type data and solar energy collection data of the past 5 years in the monitoring area, and divide the weather type into 6 types, which are sunny (C), sunny (PC), and cloud (SC). Cloudy (MCI), cloudy (O), rain and snow (RS).
  • C sunny
  • PC sunny
  • SC cloud
  • MCI cloudy
  • O cloudy
  • RS rain and snow
  • the weather change coefficient WCS of the two days before and after is obtained, and the process proceeds to step 3.
  • Step 3 w t is a threshold that reflects whether the weather has changed significantly.
  • the size is obtained by analyzing historical real-time weather type data and node collected power data, and comparing WCS with w t . If
  • Step 4 Consider the case where the weather is basically the same as the previous day, and adopt the idea of WCMA algorithm.
  • M D is the average value of the energy acquisition values of the ith time slot of the D-day in front of the wireless sensor network node
  • N [n 1 , n 2 ,,, n k ] is a 1 ⁇ k matrix.
  • the weather change of the first k time slots of the time slot to be predicted is recorded, where n j is calculated by the formula (12).
  • V [v 1 ,v 2 ,,,v k ] is used to reflect the weight, where v j is calculated by the formula (7), and finally the weather change reflecting the predicted day and the previous day is calculated by the formula (10).
  • Degree (determined by historically collecting power data from predicted locations). At this time, the solar energy acquisition prediction value can be directly calculated using the formula (5), and then jumps to step 7.
  • Step 5 When predicting a significant change in the weather between the day and the previous day, use the actual weather forecast data for the day of the forecast to correct the forecast error.
  • WF [wf 1 ,wf 2 ,,,wf k ] is a 1 ⁇ k matrix for storing the time slots to be predicted and the weather changes of the previous k-1 time slots, where wf j is through the weather forecast data.
  • Step 6 When the weather changes significantly, it is divided into two situations, namely, the weather is significantly better and the weather is significantly worse. The effect of these two cases on solar energy collection is different, using the constants a, b to correct, as shown in equation (2). Finally, the solar energy collection power P(d+1,i) predicted by the i-th time slot on the d+1th day when the weather changes significantly is calculated using the formula (13), and the process proceeds to step 7.
  • Step 7 Feed the prediction results back to the sensor node for energy management.

Abstract

Provided in the present invention is an antenna data-based algorithm for predicting the solar energy collection power of a wireless sensor network node, which may accurately predict the collection power of a wireless sensor network node that has a solar energy collection function while using a smaller space and shorter time. The present discovery fully considers the effect of changes in weather on predicting solar energy collection power; by means of analyzing the comparison between changes in weather and solar energy collection power, the acting relationship of changes in weather on solar energy collection is discovered, thereby accurately predicting the solar energy collection power of a node when the weather changes significantly. At the same time, the present method may achieve extremely high prediction precision both when the weather changes drastically and when the weather changes smoothly.

Description

基于天气数据的无线传感网节点太阳能收集功率预测算法Solar Energy Collecting Power Prediction Algorithm for Wireless Sensor Network Node Based on Weather Data 技术领域Technical field
本发明涉及基于天气数据的无线传感网节点太阳能收集功率预测算法,属于无线传感网领域。The invention relates to a wireless sensor network node solar energy collection power prediction algorithm based on weather data, and belongs to the field of wireless sensor networks.
背景技术Background technique
无线传感器网络(WirelessSensorNetwork,WSN)是由大量静止或移动的传感器以自组织和多跳的方式构成的无线网络。由于低成本和高机动,WSN在过去发展中越来越受欢迎,同时它们能够完成传统电缆或有线网络无法处理的众多应用场景,例如智能家居、辐射监测、生物群落的微观观测和智能交通等。WSN的基本组成是传感器节点,研究人员通过固定点投放或随机抛投等方式将其散布在监测区域。Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) is a wireless network composed of a large number of stationary or mobile sensors in a self-organizing and multi-hop manner. Due to their low cost and high maneuverability, WSNs have become more and more popular in the past, and they can complete many application scenarios that traditional cable or wired networks cannot handle, such as smart home, radiation monitoring, microscopic observation of biomes and intelligent transportation. The basic composition of the WSN is the sensor node, and the researchers distribute it in the monitoring area by means of fixed point placement or random throwing.
常规的传感器节点主要包含数据采集、数据处理、数据传输以及电源四个模块,其中电源模块负责给其余三个模块提供能量。在电池和其他嵌入式系统组件之间的增长趋势不匹配的情况下,资源受限的嵌入式系统的电源管理仍然是一个严峻的挑战。由于WSN的远程场景部署和缺乏可靠的电源,网络中的传感器通常依靠电池来提供能量实现其预期任务。电池供电的WSN无论其能源效率如何,最终都会导致网络因为电源有限而失效,除非更换电池。如果网络部署在恶劣的环境或不易到达的场景,电池更换更是一个昂贵的支出甚至无法实现。对这个问题的一个有希望的解决方案是与电池一起使用环境能量收集技术,常见的可采集利用的环境能量有太阳能、振动能、风能、噪声等。太阳能因其能量密度大、易采集等特点而被广泛使用。The conventional sensor node mainly includes four modules of data acquisition, data processing, data transmission and power supply, wherein the power module is responsible for providing energy to the other three modules. Power management of resource-constrained embedded systems remains a serious challenge in the face of a mismatch in growth between batteries and other embedded system components. Due to the remote scene deployment of the WSN and the lack of reliable power, sensors in the network typically rely on batteries to provide energy to achieve their intended tasks. Battery-powered WSNs, regardless of their energy efficiency, will eventually cause the network to fail due to limited power supply unless the battery is replaced. If the network is deployed in a harsh environment or an unreachable scenario, battery replacement is even more expensive and can't even be realized. A promising solution to this problem is to use environmental energy harvesting technology with batteries. The common environmental energy that can be collected and utilized is solar energy, vibration energy, wind energy, noise, and the like. Solar energy is widely used because of its high energy density and easy collection.
将能量收集能力引入无线传感器网络将引起许多关于这种系统的构建的设计问题,例如能量预测、能量管理和路由协议等。其中能量预测更是其他问题设计的前提,因为无论是能量管理还是路由协议,设计时都必须考虑能耗,即根据现有的可用能量来规定其性能水平。由于带有能量采集技术的WSN的可用能量包括剩余能量和未来一定时间采集的环境能量,想要知道可用能量就必须能预测未来一定时间采集的环境能量。The introduction of energy harvesting capabilities into wireless sensor networks will cause many design issues regarding the construction of such systems, such as energy prediction, energy management, and routing protocols. Among them, energy prediction is the premise of other problem design, because whether it is energy management or routing protocol, energy consumption must be considered in design, that is, its performance level is specified according to the available energy. Since the available energy of the WSN with energy harvesting technology includes the remaining energy and the environmental energy collected in a certain period of time, in order to know the available energy, it must be able to predict the environmental energy collected in a certain period of time in the future.
以拥有太阳能采集能力的WSN能量管理为例,带有环境能量采集技术的WSN在理论上可以持续的运行,因为环境能量采集技术可以采集环境能量来补充传感器的消耗。但实际表明,具有能量采集能力的传感器供电装置很难保证WSN长期的不间断运行。主要原因是对不可控的太阳能的依赖,太阳能由于气象因素而难以模拟和预测,时间、空间的变化使其呈现出较高的短期波动。太阳能照射到地表的能量大小的不确定性导致了节点采集能量的不确定性,使得WSN的能量管理难以做到能量中性操作(ENO),即在一定的时间内系统的能耗小于等于环境采集的能量。WSN通常是通过动态调整系统在运行时的性能水平来使用高度可变的环境能量,如果系统一直运行在最低的性能水平,能够实现ENO,却造成了能量的浪费,并且此时的系统也难以满足大多任务要求;如果系统运行在较高的性能水平,则很可能造成环境采集的能量小于系统能耗,提前结束网络的寿命。因此,合理的能量管理是WSN能否永久运行的一个重要条件,而能量管理的前提是知道系统可用能量,即能够预测未来一定时间内采集的环境 能量。Taking WSN energy management with solar energy collection capability as an example, WSN with environmental energy harvesting technology can theoretically continue to operate because environmental energy harvesting technology can collect environmental energy to supplement sensor consumption. However, it has been shown that it is difficult to ensure the long-term uninterrupted operation of the WSN by the sensor power supply device with energy harvesting capability. The main reason is the dependence on uncontrollable solar energy. Solar energy is difficult to simulate and predict due to meteorological factors. Time and space changes make it exhibit high short-term fluctuations. The uncertainty of the amount of energy radiated by the solar energy to the surface causes the uncertainty of the energy collected by the node, making it difficult for energy management of the WSN to achieve energy neutral operation (ENO), that is, the energy consumption of the system is less than or equal to the environment within a certain period of time. The energy collected. WSN usually uses highly variable environmental energy by dynamically adjusting the performance level of the system at runtime. If the system is running at the lowest performance level, ENO can be realized, but energy is wasted, and the system is difficult at this time. Meet most of the mission requirements; if the system is running at a higher performance level, it is likely that the energy collected by the environment is less than the system energy consumption, and the network life is terminated prematurely. Therefore, reasonable energy management is an important condition for WSN to operate permanently. The premise of energy management is to know the available energy of the system, that is, to predict the environmental energy collected in a certain period of time in the future.
目前针对太阳能,有许多研究人员提出了预测算法,例如EWMA,WCMA和Pro-Energy等。主要是对历史采集数据的分析来预测未来短期的收集功率。在天气平稳的场景,上面的算法已经可以将预测误差控制在很小的范围内,特别是WCMA能够适应天气的简单变化,但天气发生大的变化时,上面的算法则很难保证预测的准确性。众所周知,绝大多数的场景一天之内天气情况的阴晴转换是很常见的,因此针对太阳能的预测算法考虑实时天气的变化是很有必要的。Currently, for solar energy, many researchers have proposed prediction algorithms such as EWMA, WCMA and Pro-Energy. It is mainly the analysis of historical data collected to predict future short-term collection power. In the scene with stable weather, the above algorithm can control the prediction error to a small extent. In particular, WCMA can adapt to the simple change of the weather, but when the weather changes greatly, the above algorithm is difficult to ensure the accuracy of the prediction. Sex. It is well known that the vast majority of scenes are very common in weather conditions during the day, so it is necessary to consider real-time weather changes for solar energy prediction algorithms.
发明内容Summary of the invention
本发明提出基于天气数据的无线传感网节点太阳能收集功率预测算法,该方法能够在使用较小空间和时间的同时,准确的预测出带有太阳能采集功能的无线传感网节点的收集功率,并实现了在天气变化显著场景准确预测节点太阳能收集功率,同时在天气显著变化和天气平稳变化场景均能取得非常高的预测精度。The invention provides a solar energy collection node solar energy collection prediction algorithm based on weather data, which can accurately predict the collection power of a wireless sensor network node with a solar energy collection function while using a small space and time. And it realizes the accurate prediction of the node solar energy collection in the scene with significant weather changes, and at the same time can achieve very high prediction accuracy in the scenes with significant weather changes and smooth weather changes.
本发明所述基于天气数据的无线传感网节点太阳能收集功率预测算法,具体执行步骤如下:The solar data collection power prediction algorithm of the wireless sensor network node based on the weather data according to the present invention, the specific execution steps are as follows:
步骤1:选择监测区域中过去相邻5年的实时天气类型数据和太阳能收集功率数据,将天气类型分为6种,分别是晴天(C)、晴间多云(PC)、有云(SC)、多云(MCI)、阴天(O)、雨雪(RS);对不同天气类型不同时隙的太阳能收集功率进行统计处理,根据各天气类数据之间的倍率关系,将倍率关系映射为天气类型数值指数W,进入步骤2;Step 1: Select the real-time weather type data and solar energy collection data of the past 5 years in the monitoring area, and divide the weather type into 6 types, which are sunny (C), sunny (PC), and cloud (SC). Cloudy (MCI), cloudy (O), rain and snow (RS); statistically process the solar energy collected in different time slots of different weather types, and map the magnification relationship to the weather according to the magnification relationship between the weather data. Type value index W, proceeds to step 2;
步骤2:获取当天的实际天气预报数据W(d+1,i)(i=1,2...24),将预测当天的天气预测数据W(d+1,i)与前一天的天气预测数据W(d,i)进行比较,得到前后两天的天气变化系数WCS,进入步骤3;Step 2: Obtain the actual weather forecast data of the day W(d+1,i) (i=1,2...24), and predict the weather forecast data W(d+1,i) of the day and the weather of the previous day. The prediction data W(d, i) is compared, and the weather change coefficient WCS of the two days before and after is obtained, and the process proceeds to step 3;
步骤3:w t是反映天气是否发生显著变化的阈值,大小是通过对历史实时天气类型数据和节点收集功率数据的分析得出,比较WCS与w t;若|WCS|<w t,则认为预测当天与前一天的天气基本相同,直接跳转步骤4;若|WCS|≥w t,则认为预测当天与前一天的天气发生显著变化,直接跳转步骤5; Step 3: w t is a threshold value reflecting whether the weather has changed significantly. The size is obtained by analyzing the historical real-time weather type data and the collected power data of the node, and comparing WCS with w t ; if |WCS|<w t , it is considered The forecasting day is basically the same as the weather of the previous day, and directly jumps to step 4; if |WCS|≥w t , it is considered that the weather of the forecast day and the previous day changes significantly, and jumps directly to step 5;
步骤4:先考虑预测当天与前一天的天气基本相同的情况,采用WCMA算法的思想;M D是无线传感网节点前面D天第i时隙的能量采集值平均值,N=[n 1,n 2,,,n k]是一个1×k矩阵,记录了将要预测的时隙的前面k个时隙的天气变化情况,其中n j通过计算得出; Step 4: First consider the case where the weather of the day is basically the same as the previous day, and adopt the idea of WCMA algorithm; M D is the average value of the energy collection value of the ith time slot of the D day in front of the wireless sensor network node, N=[n 1 , n 2 ,,, n k ] is a 1×k matrix that records the weather changes of the first k time slots of the time slot to be predicted, where n j is calculated;
V=[v 1,v 2,,,v k]是用来反映权重的,其中v j是通过计算得出,最终计算出反映预测当天与前面一天的天气变化程度(通过预测地点的历史收集功率数据来确定);而此时的太阳能采集预测值可直接计算,后跳转步骤7; V=[v 1 ,v 2 ,,,v k ] is used to reflect the weight, where v j is calculated by calculation, and finally calculates the degree of weather change reflecting the predicted day and the previous day (by historical collection of predicted locations) The power data is determined); at this time, the solar energy acquisition prediction value can be directly calculated, and then jumps to step 7;
步骤5:当预测当天与前一天天气发生显著变化时,使用预测当天的实际天气预报数据来修正预测误差;WF=[wf 1,wf 2,,,wf k]是一个1×k矩阵,用来存放将要预测的时隙以及前面k-1个时隙的天气变化情况,其中wf j是通过天气预报数据来计算的,最终计算出天气显著变化时预测当天时隙i以及前面k-1个时隙的天气变化程度,进入步骤6; Step 5: When predicting a significant change in the weather between the day and the previous day, use the actual weather forecast data for the day of the forecast to correct the prediction error; WF = [wf 1 , wf 2 , ,, wf k ] is a 1 × k matrix, To store the time slots to be predicted and the weather changes of the previous k-1 time slots, where wf j is calculated by the weather forecast data, and finally calculate the time slot i and the previous k-1 times when the weather changes significantly. The degree of weather change of the time slot, proceeds to step 6;
步骤6:天气发生显著变化时,分为两种情况,分别为天气显著变好和天气显著变差;这两种情况对太阳能的采集的影响使用常量a,b来修正;最后,计算出天气发生显著变化时第d+1天第i时隙所预测出的太阳能收集功率P(d+1,i),进入步骤7;Step 6: When the weather changes significantly, it is divided into two cases, namely, the weather is significantly better and the weather is significantly worse; the effects of the two cases on the solar energy collection are corrected by the constants a and b; finally, the weather is calculated. The solar energy collection power P(d+1, i) predicted by the i-th time slot on the d+1th day when a significant change occurs, proceeds to step 7;
步骤7:将预测结果反馈给传感器节点用于能量管理。Step 7: Feed the prediction results back to the sensor node for energy management.
进一步地,所述步骤2中,前后两天的天气变化系数WCS的计算公式为:Further, in the step 2, the calculation formula of the weather change coefficient WCS of the two days is:
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000001
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000001
其中W(d,i)为第d天第i时隙的天气类型指数。Where W(d,i) is the weather type index of the i-th time slot on day d.
进一步地,所述步骤4中,通过比较预测当天的前面时隙的能量采集值与前D天对应时隙的能量采集值平均值M D的数值变化来反映天气状况的变化,WCMA算法描述如下: Further, in the step 4, the WCMA algorithm is described by comparing the change in the energy value of the previous time slot of the current day and the value of the energy collection value M D of the corresponding time slot of the previous D day to reflect the change of the weather condition. :
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000002
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000002
其中,
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000003
为第d天第i时隙的太阳能收集功率的预测值,E(d,i)为第d天第i时隙的太阳能收集功率的实际观察值,α是权重因子,且α∈[0,1];M D(d,i)为前面D天时隙i的太阳能收集功率的平均值,GAP y(i)是指当天时隙和过去D天对应时隙的天气变化情况,计算公式如下:
among them,
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000003
For the predicted value of the solar energy collected in the ith time slot on day d, E(d, i) is the actual observed value of the solar energy collected in the ith time slot on day d, α is the weighting factor, and α ∈ [0, 1]; M D (d, i) is the average value of the solar energy collected in the previous D-day time slot i, and GAP y (i) refers to the weather change of the corresponding time slot of the current time slot and the past D days, and the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000004
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000004
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000005
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000005
上式中的V就是的权重,j越大,那么权重v j也会越大,如下: The V in the above formula is the weight, and the larger j is, the larger the weight v j will be, as follows:
V=[v 1,v 2,,,v k] V=[v 1 ,v 2 ,,,v k ]
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000006
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000006
N是一个1×k矩阵,记录了将要预测的时隙的前面k个时隙的天气变化情况,如下式:N is a 1 × k matrix that records the weather changes of the first k time slots of the time slot to be predicted, as follows:
N=[n 1,n 2,,,n k] N=[n 1 ,n 2 ,,,n k ]
此外,步骤4中n j通过下式计算: In addition, n j in step 4 is calculated by:
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000007
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000007
进一步地,所述步骤5和步骤6中,定义GAP x(i)为当天时隙和过去D天对应时隙的天气变化情况,τ为天气发生显著变化,同时定义τ>0为天气显著变好太阳能收集功率大增,τ<0为天气显著变差太阳能收集功率大减,如下式所示: Further, in the steps 5 and 6, the GAP x (i) is defined as the weather change of the corresponding time slot of the day slot and the past D day, and τ is a significant change of the weather, and τ>0 is defined as the weather significant change. The solar energy collection power is greatly increased, and τ<0 is a significant deterioration in the weather. The solar energy collection is greatly reduced, as shown in the following equation:
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000008
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000008
通过对参数a,b的设定来约束不同的天气变化情况对太阳能收集功率的影响,参数a,b要根据实际的天气情况与太阳能采集情况来确定;WC(i)为前后两天的天气变化情况,具体如下式所示:By setting the parameters a, b to constrain the influence of different weather changes on the solar energy collection, the parameters a, b should be determined according to the actual weather conditions and solar energy collection; WC (i) is the weather two days before and after The change is as follows:
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000009
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000009
其中,WF为一个1×k矩阵,用来存放将要预测的时隙以及前面k-1个时隙的天气变化情况,具体的wf 1,wf 2···wf k的计算如下式所示: WF is a 1×k matrix, which is used to store the time slots to be predicted and the weather changes of the previous k-1 time slots. The specific calculation of wf 1 , wf 2 ···wf k is as follows:
WF=[wf 1,wf 2,,,wf k] WF=[wf 1 ,wf 2 ,,,wf k ]
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000010
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000010
此外引入V,为一个1×k矩阵,用来体现权重;其中,j越大,那么权重v j也会越大,即越是接近将要预测的时隙的天气变化情况越重要,具体下式所示: In addition, V is introduced as a 1×k matrix to represent the weight; wherein, the larger j is, the larger the weight v j is, that is, the closer to the weather change of the time slot to be predicted, the more important Shown as follows:
V=[v 1,v 2,,,v k] V=[v 1 ,v 2 ,,,v k ]
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000011
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000011
将WF与V相乘后除以V的和,并将最终的结果确定为天气变化情况WC(i)。The WF is multiplied by V and divided by the sum of V, and the final result is determined as the weather change condition WC(i).
进一步地,所述步骤6中,最终的预测算法如下式:Further, in the step 6, the final prediction algorithm is as follows:
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000012
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000012
其中,w t是反映天气是否发生显著变化的阈值,w t的大小是通过对历史实时天气类型数据和节点收集功率数据的分析得出。 Where w t is a threshold reflecting whether the weather has changed significantly, and the size of w t is obtained by analyzing historical real-time weather type data and node collected power data.
有益效果Beneficial effect
本发明提出基于天气数据的无线传感网节点太阳能收集功率预测算法。该方法能够在使用较小空间和时间的同时,准确的预测出带有太阳能采集功能的无线传感网节点的收集功率。The invention proposes a solar sensor network node solar energy collection prediction algorithm based on weather data. The method can accurately predict the collected power of the wireless sensor network node with solar energy collection function while using less space and time.
本发现充分考虑了天气变化对太阳能收集功率预测的影响,通过对天气变化与太阳能收集功率之间的对比分析,发现了天气变化对太阳能采集的作用关系,从而实现了在天气变化显著场景准确预测节点太阳能收集功率。同时该方法在天气显著变化和天气平稳变化场景均 能取得非常高的预测精度。This finding fully considers the impact of weather changes on solar energy harvesting power. By comparing and analyzing the weather changes and solar energy collection, the relationship between weather changes and solar energy harvesting is found, thus achieving accurate prediction of significant weather changes. Node solar energy is collected. At the same time, the method can achieve very high prediction accuracy in the case of significant weather changes and stable weather changes.
附图说明DRAWINGS
图1为冬季24个时隙的收集功率对比图。Figure 1 is a comparison of collected power for 24 time slots in winter.
图2为冬季不同时隙不同天气类型的天气类型指数对应关系。Figure 2 shows the correspondence between weather type indices for different weather types in different time slots in winter.
图3为EWMA,WCMA算法预测的太阳能采集的能量曲线。Figure 3 shows the energy curve of solar energy acquisition predicted by EWMA, WCMA algorithm.
图4为预测太阳能收集功率算法流程图。Figure 4 is a flow chart of the algorithm for predicting solar energy collection.
具体实施方式detailed description
下面结合说明书附图对本发明的技术方案做进一步的详细说明。The technical solution of the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.
本发明针对现有的带有太阳能采集功能的无线传感网节点能量管理效率过低,常规的太阳能采集预测算法无法适应天气变化较为频繁的场景的问题,提出了将天气预报的天气数据引入到太阳能收集功率的预测算法中。方法首先详细分析了天气变化与节点收集功率之间的联系,将天气对收集功率的影响数值化;其次,将天气变化分为没有显著变化、天气显著变好和天气显著变差三种,并分别讨论了每种情况的收集功率预测。该方法不仅能有效解决天气变化对预测结果的影响,提高预测结果的精度,同时提高了算法的适用性,在不同气候特征的场景中,均能取得很好的预测效果。The invention aims at the energy management efficiency of the existing wireless sensor network node with solar energy collection function is too low, and the conventional solar energy acquisition prediction algorithm cannot adapt to the problem of scenes with frequent weather changes, and proposes to introduce weather data of weather forecast to Solar energy harvesting power prediction algorithm. The method firstly analyzes the relationship between the weather change and the collected power of the node, and quantifies the influence of the weather on the collected power. Secondly, it divides the weather change into three kinds: no significant change, the weather is significantly better, and the weather is significantly worse. The collected power predictions for each case are discussed separately. The method not only can effectively solve the influence of weather changes on the prediction results, improve the accuracy of the prediction results, and improve the applicability of the algorithm. It can achieve good prediction results in different climate characteristics.
本方法主要分为三个部分,一是分析不同天气类型与太阳能收集功率之间的关系;二是计算并分析预测当天与前一天的天气变化;三是根据不同天气变化情况计算太阳能收集功率的预测值。The method is mainly divided into three parts. One is to analyze the relationship between different weather types and solar energy collection; the second is to calculate and analyze the weather changes on the day and the previous day; the third is to calculate the solar energy collected according to different weather changes. Predictive value.
(1)分析不同天气类型与太阳能收集功率之间的关系(1) Analysis of the relationship between different weather types and solar energy collection
通过对历史数据的分析得出,不同季节的天气类型对太阳能采集 的影响程度也有所区别。以季节为标准将数据分为春、夏、秋、冬4个部分,将这些影响因素映射为天气类型指数以反映天气类型对太阳能采集的影响。According to the analysis of historical data, the degree of influence of weather patterns in different seasons on solar energy collection is also different. According to the season as the standard, the data is divided into four parts: spring, summer, autumn and winter. These influencing factors are mapped to the weather type index to reflect the influence of weather type on solar energy collection.
选择某个场景内传感器节点过去相邻5年的实时天气类型数据和节点收集功率数据。首先,将天气类型分为6种,分别是晴天(C)、晴间多云(PC)、有云(SC)、多云(MCI)、阴天(O)、雨雪(RS)。一天中不同时间段的采集量有着明显的不同,以1小时为1时隙将一天分为24个时隙。其次,对不同天气类型不同时隙的太阳能收集功率进行统计处理(图1显示了冬季的24个时隙的收集功率对比)。最后根据各天气类数据之间的倍率关系,将倍率关系映射为天气类型指数。由图1可以得出,除了日出日落外,其余时隙的采集量与天气类型的关系十分清晰,因此11-17时隙的天气类型指数为各天气类数据之间的倍率关系,其余时隙的天气类型指数为所有时隙的均值。由于阴天的数据量大,设定其天气类型指数W为单位1,其余天气类型指数在阴天的基础上做等价转换,图2显示了某个场景的冬季不同时隙不同天气类型的天气类型指数对应关系。Select real-time weather type data and node collection power data of sensor nodes in the past five years in a scene. First, the weather types are divided into six types: sunny (C), sunny (PC), cloudy (SC), cloudy (MCI), cloudy (O), and rain (RS). The amount of collection in different time periods of the day is significantly different, and the day is divided into 24 time slots with 1 hour as 1 time slot. Secondly, the solar energy collection power of different time slots of different weather types is statistically processed (Fig. 1 shows the comparison of the collected power of 24 time slots in winter). Finally, according to the magnification relationship between the weather data, the magnification relationship is mapped to the weather type index. It can be concluded from Fig. 1 that except for sunrise and sunset, the relationship between the collection amount of the other time slots and the weather type is very clear, so the weather type index of the 11-17 time slot is the magnification relationship between the weather data, and the rest The weather type index of the gap is the mean of all time slots. Due to the large amount of data on cloudy days, the weather type index W is set to unit 1, and the rest of the weather type index is equivalently converted on a cloudy basis. Figure 2 shows the different weather types of different time slots in a certain winter scene. Weather type index correspondence.
(2)计算并分析预测当天与前一天的天气变化(2) Calculate and analyze the weather changes predicted on the day and the previous day
EWMA算法在预测地点的天气基本没有变化的情况下具有较高的准确性,而WCMA算法则针对EWMA算法不能适应天气变化这一缺陷进行了修正,使得算法能够在天气变化的情况下的预测也具有较高的精度。但当预测地点的天气发生剧烈的变化,如阴天变为晴天时,WCMA依旧是有较高的误差。本发明的思路就是以WCMA为基础,引 入网络上的实时天气来对EWMA与WCMA不能适应预测地点天气显著变化的这一缺陷进行改进。The EWMA algorithm has higher accuracy when the weather in the predicted location is basically unchanged, and the WCMA algorithm corrects the defect that the EWMA algorithm cannot adapt to the weather change, so that the algorithm can predict the weather change. With high precision. However, when the weather in the predicted location changes drastically, such as when the cloudy day turns sunny, WCMA still has a higher error. The idea of the present invention is based on WCMA, which introduces real-time weather on the network to improve the defect that EWMA and WCMA cannot adapt to the significant change of weather in the predicted location.
因天气状况的多变,天气调节因子GAP(i)的计算要多方面考虑。如预测当天与前面一天的天气状况相比基本相同、显著变化以及剧烈变化等,会使太阳能的采集发生不同变化,而天气状况对太阳能的收集功率又不是简单的线性关系,故需要分情况考虑。在此基础上,就需要考虑如何辨别预测当天与前面一天的天气状况的变化。通过对历史数据的分析,发现,决定一天的天气状况的好坏或者说是太阳能收集功率的高低的主要因素是正午以及下午这一段时间的天气状况。若正午以及下午这一段时间的天气状况为晴,那么当天所能采集到的太阳能就会较高;相反,正午以及下午这一段时间的天气状况为阴天或者雨天时,当天的太阳能收集功率就会很低。因此,引入新的变量WCS来反映预测当天与前面一天的天气变化,具体如公式(1):Due to the changing weather conditions, the calculation of the weather adjustment factor GAP(i) should be considered in many aspects. If the forecast is basically the same, significant change, and drastic change compared with the previous day's weather conditions, the solar energy collection will change differently, and the weather conditions are not a simple linear relationship with the solar power collection power, so it is necessary to consider the situation. . On this basis, it is necessary to consider how to discern the changes in the weather conditions on the day of the forecast and the previous day. Through the analysis of historical data, it is found that the main factors that determine the quality of the day's weather conditions or the level of solar energy collection are the weather conditions at noon and afternoon. If the weather conditions at noon and afternoon are sunny, then the solar energy collected on the day will be higher; on the contrary, when the weather conditions at noon and afternoon are cloudy or rainy, the solar energy collected on that day will be It will be very low. Therefore, a new variable WCS is introduced to reflect the weather changes on the day of the forecast and the previous day, as shown in equation (1):
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000013
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000013
因不同场景的经纬度不一样,故公式(1)中的i值也不确定。W(d,i)为第d天第i时隙的天气类型指数。Since the latitude and longitude of different scenes are different, the value of i in equation (1) is also uncertain. W(d,i) is the weather type index of the i-th time slot on day d.
(3)根据不同天气变化情况计算太阳能收集功率的预测值:(3) Calculate the predicted value of solar energy collection according to different weather changes:
在区分不同的天气变化后,就需要考虑每一种变化的具体计算方法。After distinguishing between different weather changes, you need to consider the specific calculation method for each change.
图3为EWMA,WCMA算法预测的能量曲线和日平均误差(每个时隙为1小时)。分析得出WCMA算法相比与EWMA算法降低了预测的误差,但天气变化显著时依然有较大的误差。通过对WCMA算法的大 量实验(实验时的权重α固定为0.5),发现该算法对不同天气变化情况的预测误差是不一样的。通过对比,发现由晴天向阴天转变的天气,预测误差非常大;由阴天向晴天转变的天气,预测误差较大;而当前后两天的天气情况基本相同时,预测误差非常小。因此考虑对不同的天气变化情况进行分类,主要分为两大类,即天气发生显著变化与天气不发生显著变化,分别用GAP x与GAP y来表示。 Figure 3 shows the EWMA, WCMA algorithm predicted energy curve and daily mean error (1 hour per time slot). The analysis shows that the WCMA algorithm reduces the prediction error compared with the EWMA algorithm, but there is still a large error when the weather changes significantly. Through a large number of experiments on the WCMA algorithm (the weight α of the experiment is fixed at 0.5), it is found that the prediction error of the algorithm for different weather changes is different. By comparison, it is found that the weather from sunny to cloudy weather has a very large prediction error; the weather from cloudy to sunny is more predictive; and the current two days are basically the same, the prediction error is very small. Therefore, considering the classification of different weather changes, there are two main categories, that is, the weather changes significantly and the weather does not change significantly, which is represented by GAP x and GAP y respectively.
①先讨论较为复杂的情况,即天气发生显著变化的情况时GAP x如何来计算。根据上面分析再将前后两天的变化情况细分为两种,分别是天气变化剧烈太阳能收集功率大增以及天气变化剧烈太阳能收集功率大减。为了方便描述,定义τ为天气发生显著变化,同时定义τ>0为天气显著变好太阳能收集功率大增,τ<0为天气显著变差太阳能收集功率大减。如公式(2)所示。 ① first discuss the more complex cases, i.e. the case when a significant change in the weather occurs GAP x how to calculate. According to the above analysis, the changes of the two days before and after are subdivided into two types, namely, the weather changes drastically, the solar energy collection increases greatly, and the weather changes drastically. For the convenience of description, the definition of τ is a significant change in the weather, and the definition of τ>0 is that the weather is significantly better, the solar energy collection is greatly increased, and τ<0 is a significant deterioration of the solar energy collected by the weather. As shown in formula (2).
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000014
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000014
通过对参数a,b的设定来约束不同的天气变化情况对太阳能收集功率的影响,参数a,b要根据实际的天气情况与太阳能采集情况来确定。WC(i)为前后两天的天气变化情况,具体如公式(3)所示。By setting the parameters a, b to constrain the influence of different weather changes on the solar energy collection, the parameters a, b should be determined according to the actual weather conditions and solar energy collection. WC(i) is the weather change for the first two days, as shown in formula (3).
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000015
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000015
其中,WF为一个1×k矩阵,用来存放将要预测的时隙以及前面k-1个时隙的天气变化情况,具体的wf 1,wf 2,,,wf k的计算如公式(4)~(5)。 WF is a 1×k matrix, which is used to store the time interval of the time slot to be predicted and the previous k-1 time slots. The calculation of specific wf 1 , wf 2 , , and wf k is as shown in formula (4). ~ (5).
WF=[wf 1,wf 2,,,wf k]       (4) WF=[wf 1 ,wf 2 ,,,wf k ] (4)
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000016
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000016
通过将要预测的时隙以及前面k-1个时隙的天气变化情况来反映要预测时隙的天气状况时,还有一个问题要考虑的是wf 1,wf 2,,,wf k对将要预测的时隙的天气状况影响是不一样的,越是接近将要预测的时隙的天气变化情况显然是越重要,因此需要引入权重的概念。V同样为一个1×k矩阵,是用来体现权重。其中,j越大,那么权重v j也会越大,即越是接近将要预测的时隙的天气变化情况越重要,具体如公式(6)~(7)。 When the weather condition of the time slot to be predicted is reflected by the time slot of the time slot to be predicted and the weather condition of the previous k-1 time slots, there is another problem to be considered. wf 1 , wf 2 , , , wf k pairs will be predicted The weather conditions of the time slots are not the same. The closer the weather changes to the time slots to be predicted, the more important it is, so the concept of weights needs to be introduced. V is also a 1 × k matrix, which is used to reflect the weight. Where j is larger, then the weight v j will be larger, that is, the closer to the weather change of the time slot to be predicted, the more important, as shown in the formulas (6) to (7).
V=[v 1,v 2,,,v k]      (6) V=[v 1 ,v 2 ,,,v k ] (6)
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000017
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000017
将WF与V相乘后除以V的和,并将最终的结果确定为天气变化情况WC(i)。The WF is multiplied by V and divided by the sum of V, and the final result is determined as the weather change condition WC(i).
②接下来要考虑天气不发生显著变化的情况,即GAP y的计算。当前后两天的天气状况皆为晴天或者阴天时,节点所采集到的能量值不会发生大的变化,但这并不代表不发生变化,因为同样是晴天,也会因为温度、湿度等因素而产生细小的差别,此时选择WCMA算法的思想,通过比较预测当天的前面时隙的能量采集值与前D天对应时隙的能量采集值平均值M D的数值变化来反映天气状况的变化,WCMA算法描述如下: 2 Next, consider the case where the weather does not change significantly, that is, the calculation of GAP y . When the weather conditions in the last two days are sunny or cloudy, the energy value collected by the nodes will not change greatly, but this does not mean that it will not change, because it is also sunny, but also because of temperature, humidity and other factors. The small difference is generated. At this time, the idea of the WCMA algorithm is selected, and the change in the weather condition is reflected by comparing the energy value of the previous time slot of the current day and the value of the average value M D of the energy collection value of the corresponding time slot of the previous D day. The WCMA algorithm is described as follows:
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000018
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000018
其中,
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000019
为第d天第i时隙的太阳能收集功率的预测值,E(d,i)为第d天第i时隙的太阳能收集功率的实际观察值,α是权重因子,且α∈[0,1]。M D(d,i)为前面D天时隙i的太阳能收集功率的平均值,GAP y(i)是指当天时隙和过去D天对应时隙的天气变化情况。具体如公式(9)~(10)。
among them,
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000019
For the predicted value of the solar energy collected in the ith time slot on day d, E(d, i) is the actual observed value of the solar energy collected in the ith time slot on day d, α is the weighting factor, and α ∈ [0, 1]. M D (d, i) is the average value of the solar energy collected in the previous D-day time slot i, and GAP y (i) refers to the weather change of the corresponding time slot of the current time slot and the past D days. Specifically, it is as shown in formulas (9) to (10).
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000020
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000020
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000021
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000021
公式(13)中的V就是的权重,j越大,那么权重v j也会越大,如公式(6)~(7)。N是一个1×k矩阵,记录了将要预测的时隙的前面k个时隙的天气变化情况,如公式(11)~(12) The weight in the formula (13) is the weight, and the larger the j, the larger the weight v j , as in the formulas (6) to (7). N is a 1×k matrix that records the weather changes of the first k time slots of the time slot to be predicted, as in equations (11)–(12).
N=[n 1,n 2,,,n k]      (11) N=[n 1 ,n 2 ,,,n k ] (11)
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000022
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000022
最终,我们的预测算法如公式(13):Finally, our prediction algorithm is as in formula (13):
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000023
Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-000023
其中,w t是反映天气是否发生显著变化的阈值,w t的大小是通过对历史实时天气类型数据和节点收集功率数据的分析得出。 Where w t is a threshold reflecting whether the weather has changed significantly, and the size of w t is obtained by analyzing historical real-time weather type data and node collected power data.
本方法主要是预测太阳能收集功率的具体过程。This method is mainly to predict the specific process of solar energy collection.
预测太阳能收集功率:预测太阳能收集功率流程图如图4所示,具体执行步骤如下:Predicting solar energy collection: The solar energy collection power flow chart is shown in Figure 4. The specific steps are as follows:
步骤1:选择监测区域中过去相邻5年的实时天气类型数据和太 阳能收集功率数据,将天气类型分为6种,分别是晴天(C)、晴间多云(PC)、有云(SC)、多云(MCI)、阴天(O)、雨雪(RS)。对不同天气类型不同时隙的太阳能收集功率进行统计处理,根据各天气类数据之间的倍率关系,将倍率关系映射为天气类型数值指数W,进入步骤2。Step 1: Select the real-time weather type data and solar energy collection data of the past 5 years in the monitoring area, and divide the weather type into 6 types, which are sunny (C), sunny (PC), and cloud (SC). Cloudy (MCI), cloudy (O), rain and snow (RS). The solar energy collection power of different time slots of different weather types is statistically processed, and the magnification relationship is mapped to the weather type numerical index W according to the magnification relationship between the weather data, and the process proceeds to step 2.
步骤2:获取当天的实际天气预报数据W(d+1,i)(i=1,2...24),使用公式(1)将预测当天的天气预测数据W(d+1,i)与前一天的天气预测数据W(d,i)进行比较,得到前后两天的天气变化系数WCS,进入步骤3。Step 2: Obtain the actual weather forecast data W(d+1,i) (i=1,2...24) for the day, and use the formula (1) to predict the weather forecast data W(d+1,i) for the day. Compared with the weather forecast data W(d, i) of the previous day, the weather change coefficient WCS of the two days before and after is obtained, and the process proceeds to step 3.
步骤3:w t是反映天气是否发生显著变化的阈值,大小是通过对历史实时天气类型数据和节点收集功率数据的分析得出,比较WCS与w t。若|WCS|<w t,则认为预测当天与前一天的天气基本相同,直接跳转步骤4;若|WCS|≥w t,则认为预测当天与前一天的天气发生显著变化,直接跳转步骤5。 Step 3: w t is a threshold that reflects whether the weather has changed significantly. The size is obtained by analyzing historical real-time weather type data and node collected power data, and comparing WCS with w t . If |WCS|<w t , it is considered that the weather on the day of the forecast is basically the same as that of the previous day, and jumps directly to step 4; if |WCS|≥w t , it is considered that the weather on the day of the forecast and the previous day changes significantly, and jumps directly. Step 5.
步骤4:先考虑预测当天与前一天的天气基本相同的情况,采用WCMA算法的思想。如公式(9)所示,M D是无线传感网节点前面D天第i时隙的能量采集值平均值,N=[n 1,n 2,,,n k]是一个1×k矩阵,记录了将要预测的时隙的前面k个时隙的天气变化情况,其中n j通过公式(12)计算得来。V=[v 1,v 2,,,v k]是用来反映权重的,其中v j是通过公式(7)来计算,最终通过公式(10)计算出反映预测当天与前面一天的天气变化程度(通过预测地点的历史收集功率数据来确定)。而此时的太阳能采集预测值可直接使用公式(5)计算,后跳转步骤 7。 Step 4: Consider the case where the weather is basically the same as the previous day, and adopt the idea of WCMA algorithm. As shown in equation (9), M D is the average value of the energy acquisition values of the ith time slot of the D-day in front of the wireless sensor network node, and N=[n 1 , n 2 ,,, n k ] is a 1×k matrix. , the weather change of the first k time slots of the time slot to be predicted is recorded, where n j is calculated by the formula (12). V=[v 1 ,v 2 ,,,v k ] is used to reflect the weight, where v j is calculated by the formula (7), and finally the weather change reflecting the predicted day and the previous day is calculated by the formula (10). Degree (determined by historically collecting power data from predicted locations). At this time, the solar energy acquisition prediction value can be directly calculated using the formula (5), and then jumps to step 7.
步骤5:当预测当天与前一天天气发生显著变化时,使用预测当天的实际天气预报数据来修正预测误差。WF=[wf 1,wf 2,,,wf k]是一个1×k矩阵,用来存放将要预测的时隙以及前面k-1个时隙的天气变化情况,其中wf j是通过天气预报数据来计算的,具体如公式(5),最终通过公式(3)计算出天气显著变化时预测当天时隙i以及前面k-1个时隙的天气变化程度,进入步骤6。 Step 5: When predicting a significant change in the weather between the day and the previous day, use the actual weather forecast data for the day of the forecast to correct the forecast error. WF=[wf 1 ,wf 2 ,,,wf k ] is a 1×k matrix for storing the time slots to be predicted and the weather changes of the previous k-1 time slots, where wf j is through the weather forecast data. To calculate, specifically as the formula (5), finally calculate the weather change degree of the time slot i and the previous k-1 time slots when the weather changes significantly by the formula (3), and proceeds to step 6.
步骤6:天气发生显著变化时,分为两种情况,分别为天气显著变好和天气显著变差。这两种情况对太阳能的采集的影响是不一样的,使用常量a,b来修正,如公式(2)所示。最后,使用公式(13)计算出天气发生显著变化时第d+1天第i时隙所预测出的太阳能收集功率P(d+1,i),进入步骤7。Step 6: When the weather changes significantly, it is divided into two situations, namely, the weather is significantly better and the weather is significantly worse. The effect of these two cases on solar energy collection is different, using the constants a, b to correct, as shown in equation (2). Finally, the solar energy collection power P(d+1,i) predicted by the i-th time slot on the d+1th day when the weather changes significantly is calculated using the formula (13), and the process proceeds to step 7.
步骤7:将预测结果反馈给传感器节点用于能量管理。Step 7: Feed the prediction results back to the sensor node for energy management.
以上所述仅为本发明的较佳实施方式,本发明的保护范围并不以上述实施方式为限,但凡本领域普通技术人员根据本发明所揭示内容所作的等效修饰或变化,皆应纳入权利要求书中记载的保护范围内。The above is only the preferred embodiment of the present invention, and the scope of the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, but equivalent modifications or variations made by those skilled in the art according to the disclosure of the present invention should be incorporated. Within the scope of protection stated in the claims.

Claims (5)

  1. 基于天气数据的无线传感网节点太阳能收集功率预测算法,其特征在于:具体执行步骤如下:A wireless sensor network node solar energy collection prediction algorithm based on weather data, characterized in that the specific execution steps are as follows:
    步骤1:选择监测区域中过去相邻5年的实时天气类型数据和太阳能收集功率数据,将天气类型分为6种,分别是晴天(C)、晴间多云(PC)、有云(SC)、多云(MCI)、阴天(O)、雨雪(RS);对不同天气类型不同时隙的太阳能收集功率进行统计处理,根据各天气类数据之间的倍率关系,将倍率关系映射为天气类型数值指数W,进入步骤2;Step 1: Select the real-time weather type data and solar energy collection data of the past 5 years in the monitoring area, and divide the weather type into 6 types, which are sunny (C), sunny (PC), and cloud (SC). Cloudy (MCI), cloudy (O), rain and snow (RS); statistically process the solar energy collected in different time slots of different weather types, and map the magnification relationship to the weather according to the magnification relationship between the weather data. Type value index W, proceeds to step 2;
    步骤2:获取当天的实际天气预报数据W(d+1,i)(i=1,2…24),将预测当天的天气预测数据W(d+1,i)与前一天的天气预测数据W(d,i)进行比较,得到前后两天的天气变化系数WCS,进入步骤3;Step 2: Obtain the actual weather forecast data W(d+1,i) (i=1,2...24) of the day, and predict the weather forecast data W(d+1,i) of the day and the weather forecast data of the previous day. W(d, i) is compared, and the weather change coefficient WCS is obtained two days before and after, and the process proceeds to step 3;
    步骤3:w t是反映天气是否发生显著变化的阈值,大小是通过对历史实时天气类型数据和节点收集功率数据的分析得出,比较WCS与w t;若|WCS|<w t,则认为预测当天与前一天的天气基本相同,直接跳转步骤4;若|WCS|≥w t,则认为预测当天与前一天的天气发生显著变化,直接跳转步骤5; Step 3: w t is a threshold value reflecting whether the weather has changed significantly. The size is obtained by analyzing the historical real-time weather type data and the collected power data of the node, and comparing WCS with w t ; if |WCS|<w t , it is considered The forecasting day is basically the same as the weather of the previous day, and directly jumps to step 4; if |WCS|≥w t , it is considered that the weather of the forecast day and the previous day changes significantly, and jumps directly to step 5;
    步骤4:先考虑预测当天与前一天的天气基本相同的情况,采用WCMA算法的思想;M D是无线传感网节点前面D天第i时隙的能量采集值平均值,N=[n 1,n 2,,,n k]是一个1×k矩阵,记录了将要预测的时隙的前面k个时隙的天气变化情况,其中n j通过计算得出; Step 4: First consider the case where the weather of the day is basically the same as the previous day, and adopt the idea of WCMA algorithm; M D is the average value of the energy collection value of the ith time slot of the D day in front of the wireless sensor network node, N=[n 1 , n 2 ,,, n k ] is a 1×k matrix that records the weather changes of the first k time slots of the time slot to be predicted, where n j is calculated;
    V=[v 1,v 2,,,v k]是用来反映权重的,其中v j是通过计算得出,最终计算出反映预测当天与前面一天的天气变化程度(通过预测地点的历史 收集功率数据来确定);而此时的太阳能采集预测值可直接计算,后跳转步骤7; V=[v 1 ,v 2 ,,,v k ] is used to reflect the weight, where v j is calculated by calculation, and finally calculates the degree of weather change reflecting the predicted day and the previous day (by historical collection of predicted locations) The power data is determined); at this time, the solar energy acquisition prediction value can be directly calculated, and then jumps to step 7;
    步骤5:当预测当天与前一天天气发生显著变化时,使用预测当天的实际天气预报数据来修正预测误差;WF=[wf 1,wf 2,,,wf k]是一个1×k矩阵,用来存放将要预测的时隙以及前面k-1个时隙的天气变化情况,其中wf j是通过天气预报数据来计算的,最终计算出天气显著变化时预测当天时隙i以及前面k-1个时隙的天气变化程度,进入步骤6; Step 5: When predicting a significant change in the weather between the day and the previous day, use the actual weather forecast data for the day of the forecast to correct the prediction error; WF = [wf 1 , wf 2 , ,, wf k ] is a 1 × k matrix, To store the time slots to be predicted and the weather changes of the previous k-1 time slots, where wf j is calculated by the weather forecast data, and finally calculate the time slot i and the previous k-1 times when the weather changes significantly. The degree of weather change of the time slot, proceeds to step 6;
    步骤6:天气发生显著变化时,分为两种情况,分别为天气显著变好和天气显著变差;这两种情况对太阳能的采集的影响使用常量a,b来修正;最后,计算出天气发生显著变化时第d+1天第i时隙所预测出的太阳能收集功率P(d+1,i),进入步骤7;Step 6: When the weather changes significantly, it is divided into two cases, namely, the weather is significantly better and the weather is significantly worse; the effects of the two cases on the solar energy collection are corrected by the constants a and b; finally, the weather is calculated. The solar energy collection power P(d+1, i) predicted by the i-th time slot on the d+1th day when a significant change occurs, proceeds to step 7;
    步骤7:将预测结果反馈给传感器节点用于能量管理。Step 7: Feed the prediction results back to the sensor node for energy management.
  2. 根据权利要求1所述的基于天气数据的无线传感网节点太阳能收集功率预测算法,其特征在于:所述步骤2中,前后两天的天气变化系数WCS的计算公式为:The weather data-based wireless sensor network node solar energy collection power prediction algorithm according to claim 1, wherein in the step 2, the calculation formula of the weather change coefficient WCS of the two days is:
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100001
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100001
    其中W(d,i)为第d天第i时隙的天气类型指数。Where W(d,i) is the weather type index of the i-th time slot on day d.
  3. 根据权利要求1所述的基于天气数据的无线传感网节点太阳能收集功率预测算法,其特征在于:所述步骤4中,通过比较预测当天的前面时隙的能量采集值与前D天对应时隙的能量采集值平均值M D的数值变化来反映天气状况的变化,WCMA算法描述如下: The weather data-based wireless sensor network node solar energy collection power prediction algorithm according to claim 1, wherein in the step 4, by comparing and predicting the energy collection value of the previous time slot of the day corresponding to the previous D day, The change in the mean value of the energy collection value of the gap, M D , reflects the change in weather conditions. The WCMA algorithm is described as follows:
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100002
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100002
    其中,
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100003
    为第d天第i时隙的太阳能收集功率的预测值,E(d,i)为第d天第i时隙的太阳能收集功率的实际观察值,α是权重因子,且α∈[0,1];M D(d,i)为前面D天时隙i的太阳能收集功率的平均值,GAP y(i)是指当天时隙和过去D天对应时隙的天气变化情况,计算公式如下:
    among them,
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100003
    For the predicted value of the solar energy collected in the ith time slot on day d, E(d, i) is the actual observed value of the solar energy collected in the ith time slot on day d, α is the weighting factor, and α ∈ [0, 1]; M D (d, i) is the average value of the solar energy collected in the previous D-day time slot i, and GAP y (i) refers to the weather change of the corresponding time slot of the current time slot and the past D days, and the calculation formula is as follows:
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100004
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100004
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100005
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100005
    上式中的V就是的权重,j越大,那么权重v j也会越大,如下: The V in the above formula is the weight, and the larger j is, the larger the weight v j will be, as follows:
    V=[v 1,v 2,,,v k] V=[v 1 ,v 2 ,,,v k ]
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100006
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100006
    N是一个1×k矩阵,记录了将要预测的时隙的前面k个时隙的天气变化情况,如下式:N is a 1 × k matrix that records the weather changes of the first k time slots of the time slot to be predicted, as follows:
    N=[n 1,n 2,,,n k] N=[n 1 ,n 2 ,,,n k ]
    此外,步骤4中n j通过下式计算: In addition, n j in step 4 is calculated by:
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100007
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100007
  4. 根据权利要求1所述的基于天气数据的无线传感网节点太阳能收集功率预测算法,其特征在于:所述步骤5和步骤6中,定义GAP x(i)为当天时隙和过去D天对应时隙的天气变化情况,τ为天气发生显著 变化,同时定义τ>0为天气显著变好太阳能收集功率大增,τ<0为天气显著变差太阳能收集功率大减,如下式所示: The weather data-based wireless sensor network node solar energy collection power prediction algorithm according to claim 1, wherein in the steps 5 and 6, the GAP x (i) is defined as a day time slot and a past D day. The weather change of the time slot, τ is a significant change in the weather, and the definition of τ>0 is that the weather is significantly better, the solar energy collection is greatly increased, and τ<0 is the significant deterioration of the solar energy collected by the weather, as shown in the following formula:
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100008
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100008
    通过对参数a,b的设定来约束不同的天气变化情况对太阳能收集功率的影响,参数a,b要根据实际的天气情况与太阳能采集情况来确定;WC(i)为前后两天的天气变化情况,具体如下式所示:By setting the parameters a, b to constrain the influence of different weather changes on the solar energy collection, the parameters a, b should be determined according to the actual weather conditions and solar energy collection; WC (i) is the weather two days before and after The change is as follows:
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100009
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100009
    其中,WF为一个1×k矩阵,用来存放将要预测的时隙以及前面k-1个时隙的天气变化情况,具体的wf 1,wf 2···wf k的计算如下式所示: WF is a 1×k matrix, which is used to store the time slots to be predicted and the weather changes of the previous k-1 time slots. The specific calculation of wf 1 , wf 2 ···wf k is as follows:
    WF=[wf 1,wf 2,,,wf k] WF=[wf 1 ,wf 2 ,,,wf k ]
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100010
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100010
    此外引入V,为一个1×k矩阵,用来体现权重;其中,j越大,那么权重v j也会越大,即越是接近将要预测的时隙的天气变化情况越重要,具体下式所示: In addition, V is introduced as a 1×k matrix to represent the weight; wherein, the larger j is, the larger the weight v j is, that is, the closer to the weather change of the time slot to be predicted, the more important Shown as follows:
    V=[v 1,v 2,,,v k] V=[v 1 ,v 2 ,,,v k ]
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100011
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100011
    将WF与V相乘后除以V的和,并将最终的结果确定为天气变化情况WC(i)。The WF is multiplied by V and divided by the sum of V, and the final result is determined as the weather change condition WC(i).
  5. 根据权利要求1所述的基于天气数据的无线传感网节点太阳能收集功率预测算法,其特征在于:所述步骤6中,最终的预测算法如下式:The weather data-based wireless sensor network node solar energy collection power prediction algorithm according to claim 1, wherein in the step 6, the final prediction algorithm is as follows:
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100012
    Figure PCTCN2018111550-appb-100012
    其中,w t是反映天气是否发生显著变化的阈值,w t的大小是通过对历史实时天气类型数据和节点收集功率数据的分析得出。 Where w t is a threshold reflecting whether the weather has changed significantly, and the size of w t is obtained by analyzing historical real-time weather type data and node collected power data.
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