WO2019093009A1

WO2019093009A1 - Electricity plan device, electricity supply-demand control system, and electricity plan method

Info

Publication number: WO2019093009A1
Application number: PCT/JP2018/035970
Authority: WO
Inventors: 山崎　潤; 大一郎河原; 大祐加藤; 藤原　徹
Original assignee: 株式会社日立製作所
Priority date: 2017-11-10
Filing date: 2018-09-27
Publication date: 2019-05-16
Also published as: JP6936117B2; JP2019091106A

Abstract

Provided is an electricity supply-demand control device (1) comprising: a power source procurement risk computation part (14) that uses power source output for each of power sources for procurement with the risk of procurement from an electricity market and a control achievement rate (33c) indicating the degree to which control was achieved as per a command when carried out previously, thereby computing power source procurement risk data (34) for each power source for procurement, said risk data representing the likelihood that the power sources for procurement will be unable to provide required power source output; and a supply-demand control plan revision part (15) that adds power sources for procurement to supply-demand control plan data (32) until the power source procurement risk data (34) reaches a prescribed reference.

Description

Power planning apparatus, power supply and demand control system, and power planning method

The present invention relates to a power planning device, a power supply and demand control system, and a power planning method.

In recent years, a large amount of natural energy represented by solar power generation and wind power generation is being introduced into power generation systems. Their natural energy is a power supply source that can not be power controlled with abrupt and difficult power generation output fluctuations.
Patent Document 1 describes a demand-supply control system that divides output fluctuation due to natural energy and demand fluctuation due to a general load to calculate area demand power (AR). With this supply and demand control system, it is possible to follow the output of the LFC generator even in the case of a sudden output fluctuation of natural energy, and it is possible to improve the supply and demand control performance.

JP, 2014-204577, A

In order to operate the power system stably, the power system operator is required to draw up a supply and demand control plan in which the amount of power generated by the generator matches the amount of power demand. . Since the demand and supply of power included in the supply and demand control plan fluctuate with time, it is difficult to calculate an accurate forecast value in advance. Therefore, at the time of execution of the supply and demand control plan, the amount of supplied power may be insufficient relative to the amount of demand.

By the way, conventionally, a power company has performed thermal power generation, hydroelectric power generation, nuclear power generation and the like using a power generation facility (hereinafter, "own power source") owned by itself. These own power supplies can be said to be stable power supply sources with low uncertainty of power supply control because it is easy to finely control the power generation timing and the amount of power generation. However, it is not suitable for sudden power procurement because it takes a long period of preparation from the construction stage of the power plant to add a new power generation facility when the amount of power generation is insufficient.

On the other hand, power sources that can be procured through an external power market (hereinafter, “power sources for procurement”) are attracting attention as a new power supply source. It is expected to accelerate the securing of power supplies for procurement by setting up a power market (supply and demand adjustment market) that can procure and deal flexibly with power supplies for procurement by 2020. Therefore, the power company can eliminate the power shortage in the supply and demand control plan by securing the power supply for procurement from the power market when the supply amount of the power prepared in advance by the own power source suddenly runs short. That is, the power system operator can match demand and supply by transmitting an appropriate control command to the previously procured power supply for procurement, keep the system frequency within the threshold, and realize stable system operation. it can.

Examples of the power supply for procurement include storage battery control, pump-up of pumped storage power generation, charge and discharge control of an electric vehicle, and demand response (DR). In addition, there are micro grids including multiple power sources for procurement, and virtual power plants (VPPs). While the scale of its own power supply is reduced due to the closure of thermal power generation and hydroelectric power generation, the ratio of incorporating an external procurement power supply into the supply and demand control plan is increasing.
Here, compared to the power supply of its own, the power supply for procurement procured from the power market has various control performance and operation constraints. For example, the DR changes the responsiveness of the customer depending on the type of control command and the amount of incentives, and therefore carries the risk that the power output assumed in advance can not be exhibited.

However, in the conventional technology, no mechanism has been proposed for incorporating the risk when procuring power from the power market into the supply and demand control plan. For example, in the supply and demand control system described in Patent Document 1, consideration is given to changes in climate that can not be controlled by humans originally, such as fluctuations in the power generation output of natural energy. Procurement power sources with the risk of are not covered.

Then, this invention makes it a main subject to support drawing up of the supply-and-demand control plan which included the risk when purchasing the power supply for procurement from an electric power market.

In order to solve the above-mentioned subject, an electric power planner of the present invention has the following features.
The present invention provides a control achievement probability indicating the degree to which control at the time of performing control in the past was achieved according to a command, and a power output for each of the power supplies for procurement, for each procurement power source having a risk of procuring from the power market. And a power supply procurement risk calculation unit that calculates power supply procurement risk data that is a probability that the power supply for control included in the supply and demand control plan data can not output the required power supply output based on the
The power supply procurement risk data may further include a supply and demand control planning unit that adds the procurement power supply as a control target to the supply and demand control plan data until the power supply procurement risk data reaches a predetermined standard.
Other means will be described later.

According to the present invention, it is possible to support the formulation of a supply and demand control plan that incorporates the risk when procuring power sources from the power market.

It is a block diagram of the power supply and demand control system concerning one embodiment of the present invention. It is a block diagram of the electric power supply and demand control apparatus regarding one Embodiment of this invention. It is a block diagram which shows supply-and-demand fluctuation prediction data concerning one embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 5 is a block diagram illustrating power market bid data according to an embodiment of the present invention. It is a block diagram which shows supply-and-demand control plan data concerning one embodiment of the present invention. It is a block diagram which shows the control command response performance data regarding one Embodiment of this invention. FIG. 5 is a block diagram illustrating power control uncertainty data according to an embodiment of the present invention. It is a block diagram which shows the power supply procurement risk data regarding one Embodiment of this invention. It is a block diagram which shows the power supply procurement risk upper limit data regarding one Embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which calculates the supply-and-demand fluctuation prediction data by the supply-and-demand fluctuation forecasting part concerning one embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 6 is a flow chart of calculating power control uncertainty data for each power source for procurement according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. It is a flowchart which calculates the power supply procurement risk data regarding one Embodiment of this invention. It is a graph of probability distribution which shows the calculation process of the total power supply uncertainty data regarding one Embodiment of this invention. It is a flow chart which calculates risk consideration plan data concerning one embodiment of the present invention. It is a graph when not considering the power supply procurement risk regarding one Embodiment of this invention. FIG. 6 is a graph when there is a power supply procurement risk according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 6 is a graph showing risk-aware planning data according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Hereinafter, an embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings.

FIG. 1 is a block diagram of a power supply and demand control system.
The power supply and demand control system is configured such that the power supply and demand control device 1 respectively manages the equipment of its own power source owned by the power company and the power supply for procurement procured through the power market management system 300.

As an internal configuration of the power supply and demand control device 1, a central processing unit (CPU) 201, a display device 202, a communication unit 203, an input unit 204, a memory 205 and a storage device 206 are connected to a bus line 211. There is.
The CPU 201 executes a calculation program to calculate a system state, generate a control signal, and the like. The memory 205 is a memory for temporarily storing image data for display, calculation result data of the system state, and the like, and is configured using, for example, a random access memory (RAM). The memory 205 generates necessary image data by the CPU 201 and displays the image data on the display device 202.
A user such as a power system operator can set and change parameters such as various threshold values through a predetermined interface of the input unit 204, and can appropriately set the operation of the power supply and demand control device 1. In addition, the user can select the type of data to be confirmed through a predetermined interface of the input unit 204 and cause the display device 202 to display the data.

The communication unit 203 acquires system state quantities such as the power flow value and the voltage value from the measuring device 21 and the measuring device 21 through the communication network 108.
The storage device 206 holds various programs and data. The storage device 206 is configured of, for example, a hard disk drive (HDD) or a flash memory. The storage device 206 holds, for example, programs and data that can realize various functions described later. The programs and data stored in the storage device 206 are read and executed by the CPU 201 as necessary. The storage device 206 is composed of various databases (DBs).

The power market management system 300 manages power market transactions in which a power producer and a power transmission and distribution provider buy and sell power. There are various forms of market management depending on the type of product to be traded. For example, a market operation form of the spot market may be used to complete bidding and contract within one day before supply and demand control, or a market operation form of the real-time market where additional procurement power supply is traded on the day of supply and demand control. It is also good.
The power market management system 300 transmits / receives power transaction data and power plan data defined by a procurement target, a procurement schedule, and the like to / from the power supply and demand control apparatus 1 via the information communication network 108. The power transaction information includes a power sale price, a power sale amount, control performance / control requirements of the power supply target power supply, and the like.
The power market management system 300 includes at least one of a thermal power generation power source, a hydro power generation power source, a storage battery control power source, a pumped storage power generation power source, a charge and discharge control power source of an electric vehicle, a DR power source, a micro grid control power source, and a VPP control power source. Supply power from the power market as a power supply for procurement.

For example, the generator 101 (101a, 101b), the substation 102, the phase adjusting device 103, the power load 104, the external power grid 105, and the measuring device 121 (121a) as the equipment of the own power source owned by the power company. The respective units are connected to the power supply and demand control device 1 via the information communication network 108.
The information communication network 108 is a network capable of transmitting data bidirectionally. The information communication network 108 is configured by, for example, a wired network or a wireless network, or a combination thereof. The information communication network 108 may be a so-called Internet or a network of leased lines.

The generator 101 is a generator that generates power, and is a generator that generates power by any power generation method including thermal power generation, hydropower generation, nuclear power generation, solar power generation, wind power generation, biomass power generation, and tidal power generation. is there.
The generator 101a is a large-scale generator including thermal power generation, hydroelectric power generation, nuclear power generation and the like installed on the high voltage side of the electric power system. The generator 101a transmits the system state amount including the power generation amount to the power supply and demand control device 1 via the measuring device 121a, and changes the system state amount including the power generation amount according to the control command information transmitted from the power supply and demand control device 1. Let
The generator 101 b is a small-to-medium-sized generator including solar power generation, wind power generation, cogeneration, etc. installed on the low voltage side of the electric power system, and FIG. 1 illustrates a solar panel performing solar power generation. . The generator 101 b transmits the system state quantity including the amount of power generation to the power supply and demand control device 1 via the measuring device 121 d.

The substation 102 is installed between transmission lines in the power system, changes the voltage value of the power transmitted from the high voltage side where the generator 101a which is a large scale generator is installed, and the power load 104 is installed. Power to the low voltage side. The substation 102 is connected with a phase adjusting device 103 such as a power capacitor and a shunt reactor.
The phase-adjusting device 103 is a device that controls voltage distribution in the power system by changing reactive power in the power system, and includes a power capacitor, a shunt reactor, STATCOM, SVC, and the like. Some of the phase adjusting devices 103 receive the control command information transmitted from the power supply and demand control device 1 via the measuring device 121 b, and change the system state quantity including the amount of power generation according to the control command information.
The power load 104 is a home, a factory, a building, a facility including an electric motor, a lighting fixture, etc. that consumes power. The external power system 105 is an external power system which can not be controlled by the power supply and demand control device 1, and is connected to the own system by an interconnection line.

Each measuring device 121 (121a to 121e) internally includes a sensor for measuring a system state quantity such as the power generation amount in each generator 101, the phase adjustment amount in the phase adjusting device 103, the power flow value in the transmission line, and the voltage value. .
Each measuring device 121 and the power supply and demand control device 1 communicate via the information communication network 108. The data transmitted from each measuring device 121 to the power supply and demand control device 1 is, for example, a measured system state quantity. The data that each measuring device 121 receives from the power supply and demand control device 1 is, for example, control command information calculated using the transmitted system state quantity of the system and the information accumulated therein.

FIG. 2 is a block diagram of the power supply and demand control device 1.
The processing unit 10 configured by the CPU 201 of the power supply and demand control device 1 includes a supply and demand fluctuation prediction unit 11, a supply and demand control plan creation unit 12, a power supply control uncertainty calculation unit 13, a power supply procurement risk calculation unit 14, and supply and demand control. It is comprised including the plan correction part 15.
The memory 205 of the power supply and demand control device 1 includes supply and demand fluctuation forecast data 31, supply and demand control plan data 32, power supply control uncertainty data 33, and power supply procurement risk data 34 as calculation progress data of the processing unit 10. The risk consideration plan data 35 is stored.
In the storage unit 206 of the power supply and demand control device 1, the frequency fluctuation value 21, the interconnection power flow fluctuation value 22, the power generation fluctuation value 23, the weather fluctuation value 24, the power market bid data 25, and the control command response result Data 26 and power supply procurement risk upper limit data 27 are stored. The various fluctuation values 21 to 24 (frequency fluctuation value 21, interconnection flow fluctuation value 22, power generation fluctuation value 23, and weather fluctuation value 24) are actual values measured by sensors as values that fluctuate with time. It may be a predicted value by a prediction model, or may be a mixture of actual values at one point in time and predicted values at another point in time.

The following is an outline of the processing unit 10.
The demand-supply fluctuation prediction unit 11 calculates the demand-supply fluctuation prediction data 31 of FIG. 3 using the various fluctuation values 21 to 24 as input (the details of the calculation processing are FIG. 10).
The supply and demand control plan creation unit 12 creates the supply and demand control plan data 32 of FIG. 5 with the supply and demand fluctuation forecast data 31 and the power market bid data 25 of FIG. 4 as input.
The power control uncertainty calculation unit 13 calculates the power control uncertainty data 33 of FIG. 7 using the control command response result data 26 of FIG. 6 as an input (the detail of the calculation processing is FIG. 11).
The power supply procurement risk calculation unit 14 calculates the power supply procurement risk data 34 of FIG. 8 using the supply and demand fluctuation forecast data 31, the supply and demand control plan data 32, and the power supply control uncertainty data 33 as input (details of calculation processing Figure 12).
The supply and demand control plan correction unit 15 corrects the supply and demand control plan data 32 into the risk consideration plan data 35 by using the power supply procurement risk data 34 and the power supply procurement risk upper limit data 27 of FIG. Figure 14).

FIG. 3 is a configuration diagram showing the supply and demand fluctuation prediction data 31. As shown in FIG. The supply and demand fluctuation forecast data 31 includes the forecast value of the frequency fluctuation value 21, the forecast value of the interconnection flow fluctuation value 22, the forecast value of the power generation fluctuation value 23, and the weather fluctuation value 24 for each fluctuation cycle of the first row The predicted value of the total supply and demand fluctuation value 31a and the total supply and demand fluctuation value 31b which is a prediction error concerning the total supply and demand fluctuation value 31a are associated with each other. When calculating the supply and demand fluctuation forecast data 31 for each fluctuation cycle from the time series data having a fixed time length which is the various fluctuation values 21 to 24 inputted, the demand and supply fluctuation forecast unit 11 performs Fourier transform, wavelet transform, etc. The frequency decomposition method of may be applied.

FIG. 4 is a block diagram showing the power market bid data 25. As shown in FIG. The power market bid data 25 is, as record data (row data) for each of the power sources for procurement used in the power market, an index representing control performance (maximum control amount, maximum output change rate, duration time, startable time) and , And the power supply procurement cost (information of unit price required for procurement) are associated with each other. The power market bid data 25 is distributed from, for example, the power market management system 300 to the power supply and demand control device 1.

FIG. 5 is a block diagram showing the supply and demand control plan data 32. As shown in FIG. The supply and demand control plan data 32 corresponds to the power supply for procurement A and B selected to be included in the plan from the power market bid data 25 with the control amount, the output change rate, the control start time, and the control end time as the plan content. It is attached.
The supply and demand control plan creation unit 12 calculates the supply amount of power required according to the fluctuation cycle based on the supply and demand fluctuation forecast data 31 and procures to achieve the required supply amount based on the power market bid data 25 Select a power supply. For example, based on the maximum output change rate included in the power market bid data 25, candidates for the procurement power source to be allocated to each fluctuation cycle are selected, and the procurement power source to be controlled according to the merit order based on the power supply cost is determined.

At this time, if the total supply and demand fluctuation value 31a indicates a trend of increased demand, the supply and demand control plan creation unit 12 controls the supply power supply so as to increase the output in order from the supply power source having the lowest power supply cost. Create data 32.
On the other hand, when the total supply and demand fluctuation value 31a indicates a trend of decreasing demand, the supply and demand control plan data 32 for controlling the supply for supply so that the output is decreased in order from the supply for supply with high cost.
When the output of the selected power supply for procurement reaches the upper and lower control limit, the power supply for procurement to be the control candidate of the next order in the merit order is selected. The above process is repeated, and the supply and demand control plan creation unit 12 adds the power supply for procurement until the required supply amount is satisfied, and determines the final control candidate.

FIG. 6 is a block diagram showing the control command response result data 26. As shown in FIG.
The control command response result data 26 is the result data in which the control command data 26a, the response result data 26b, and the supply / demand condition data 26c are associated for each power supply for procurement (that is, the result of the power control performed in the past) Data indicating that
The control command data 26a is indicated by the control amount, the output change speed, and the start time. The response record data 26b has the same data format as the control command data 26a, and indicates the response result to the control command data 26a. For example, although the power supply A for procurement is instructed to start at 15:00, the control command data 26a is instructed, but as a result, the response result data 26b indicating that the start is performed at 15:15 delayed by 15 minutes is recorded. It is done. Thus, the fact that the power supply for procurement does not necessarily operate as instructed is the uncertainty of power control.

The supply and demand condition data 26c is condition data when control is executed in the response result data 26b. The supply and demand condition data 26c is information that is estimated to affect the supply and demand fluctuation pattern, such as daily type (weekday, holiday, special day, etc.), weather (weather, temperature, etc.), time and time zone (morning, daytime, evening) , Night etc.), power supply type, current output just before control, information of rated output.
The power source type includes any of thermal power generation, hydraulic power generation, storage battery control, pumped storage power generation, charge and discharge control of an electric vehicle, DR, micro grid control, and VPP control as the types of power supplies for procurement in the leftmost row.

FIG. 7 is a configuration diagram showing the power control uncertainty data 33. As shown in FIG.
The power supply control uncertainty data 33 is data in which the control command data 33a, the supply and demand condition data 33b, and the control achievement probability 33c are associated with each other for the power supply for procurement. The control command data 33a is defined by the control amount and the output change speed as in the control command data 26a. Similar to the supply and demand condition data 26c, the supply and demand condition data 33b is defined by day type, weather, time, current output, and rated output.
The control achievement probability 33c is an indicator of uncertainty regarding the control of the power supply for procurement, and for example, under the condition of the supply and demand condition data 33b, the power supply for procurement A correctly executes the control command data 33a with a probability of 95%. Is registered. The power supply control uncertainty calculation unit 13 applies the statistical analysis to the control command response result data 26 to calculate the control achievement probability 33 c. The control achievement probability 33c may be calculated for each combination of the power supply for procurement and the demand-supply condition data 33b, or may be calculated for each power supply for procurement.

FIG. 8 is a block diagram showing the power supply procurement risk data 34. As shown in FIG.
The power supply procurement risk data 34 is data in which the total supply and demand fluctuation value 31a for each fluctuation cycle of the supply and demand fluctuation prediction data 31, the supply and demand control plan data 32 for each fluctuation cycle, and the power supply risk value 34a for each fluctuation cycle are associated. It is.
For example, focusing on the fluctuation cycle of 10 [min], in order to correspond to the total supply and demand fluctuation value of 17 [MW], the power supply G2 for procurement of output 6 [MW] and the power supply G4 for procurement of output 3 [MW] Supply and demand control plan data 32 combining the above is formulated. However, since the power supply procurement risk value 34a of the power supply for procurement in the fluctuation period of 10 [min] is 0.8%, there is a risk that 0.8% of the supply amount of the power supply for procurement will not be supplied without complying with the control command. And the power supply procurement risk calculation unit 14.

FIG. 9 is a configuration diagram showing the power supply procurement risk upper limit data 27. As shown in FIG. The power supply procurement risk upper limit value 27a defines a range (for example, an upper limit value) of the power supply procurement risk value 34a that is permitted for each fluctuation cycle of the power supply procurement risk data 34. The power supply procurement risk upper limit data 27 is, for example, data manually input by the user in advance.
The above has been described focusing on the data contents handled by the power supply and demand control device 1. Below, the processing content by the process part 10 of the power supply and demand control apparatus 1 is demonstrated centering on a flowchart.

FIG. 10 is a flowchart for calculating the supply-demand fluctuation prediction data 31 by the supply-demand fluctuation prediction unit 11.
As S101, the demand-supply fluctuation prediction unit 11 acquires each measurement data from the storage device 206. The measurement data acquired here is, for example, not only various fluctuation values 21 to 24 at a certain point in the past, but also response performance data 26b and information related to fluctuation of supply and demand (total supply and demand fluctuation 31a, total supply and demand error 31b) May be included.
As S102, the demand-supply fluctuation prediction unit 11 classifies the measurement data acquired in S101 based on the demand-supply condition data 26c. Thereby, for example, measurement data when the weather is "fine" and measurement data when the weather is "rain" are grouped separately.

In S103, the demand-supply fluctuation prediction unit 11 creates a demand-supply fluctuation prediction model by using the measurement data of the demand-supply condition data 26c classified in S102 and the corresponding response result data 26b for the demand-supply condition data 26c. That is, the demand-supply fluctuation prediction unit 11 receives modeling of at least one of the various fluctuation values 21 to 24 of S101 and applies modeling methods such as multiple regression analysis, machine learning, multivariate analysis, etc. Create a demand / supply fluctuation forecasting model that outputs information related to demand / supply fluctuation. In addition, the information related to supply and demand fluctuation is information derived from demand fluctuation, other grid interconnection power flow fluctuation, and renewable energy fluctuation.

The supply and demand fluctuation prediction unit 11 may create a supply and demand fluctuation prediction model individually for each of the various kinds of fluctuation values 21 to 24. Further, the demand-supply fluctuation prediction unit 11 inputs measured values or predicted values of the various fluctuation values 21 to 24 into the following (Equation 1) to calculate a total demand-supply fluctuation value 31a, and outputs the total demand-supply fluctuation value 31a as an output. Supply and demand fluctuation forecast model.
ΔG = ΔL + ΔLw−KΔF (Equation 1)
Here, ΔG indicates a total demand / supply fluctuation value 31 a, ΔL indicates an interconnection flow fluctuation value 22, ΔLw indicates a power generation amount fluctuation value 23, K indicates a system constant, and ΔF indicates a frequency fluctuation value 21.

As S104, the demand-supply fluctuation prediction unit 11 calculates the demand-supply fluctuation prediction data 31 at the time to be a prediction target, using the demand-supply fluctuation prediction model created in S103. In addition, when a measured value exists in the time used as prediction object, it may replace with a predicted value and may include measured value in the supply-and-demand fluctuation prediction data 31. FIG.
Here, since there are variations in the forecasted values, the demand-supply fluctuation forecast data 31 includes a gross demand-supply fluctuation value 31a indicating the representative value of the forecasted value and a gross demand-supply error indicating the range of fluctuation from the gross demand-supply fluctuation value 31a. The value 31b is calculated as a combination.
That is, the total demand and supply error value 31b is a prediction error regarding the total demand and supply fluctuation value 31a. The supply and demand fluctuation prediction unit 11 statistically analyzes the difference between the measured value and the predicted value for the total supply and demand fluctuation value 31a to, for example, 3σ values (σ represents a standard deviation) when the error distribution is assumed to be a normal distribution. The total supply and demand error value 31b may be calculated as

FIG. 11 is a flowchart for calculating the power control uncertainty data 33 for each power source for procurement.
As S201, the power supply control uncertainty calculation unit 13 acquires control command data 26a and response result data 26b from the control command response result data 26.
As S202, the power supply control uncertainty calculation unit 13 classifies the data (the control command data 26a and the response record data 26b) acquired in S201 based on the supply and demand condition data 26c.
As S203, the power supply control uncertainty calculation unit 13 uses the respective data (control command data 26a and response record data 26b) classified in S202 to supply and demand condition data 26c (supply and demand condition data 33b) for each power source for procurement. Power supply control uncertainty data 33 including the control achievement probability 33c for each) is calculated.

FIG. 12 is a flowchart for calculating the power supply procurement risk data 34.
As S301, the power supply procurement risk calculation unit 14 acquires the supply and demand fluctuation prediction data 31, the supply and demand control plan data 32, and the power supply control uncertainty data 33.
As S302, the power supply procurement risk calculation unit 14 calculates total power uncertainty data for each fluctuation cycle from each data acquired in S301. The total power supply uncertainty data is uncertainty data with respect to the power supply output (power supply output sum) for all the power supplies for procurement included in the supply and demand control plan data 32 in each fluctuation cycle.
In step S303, the power supply procurement risk calculation unit 14 calculates power supply procurement risk data 34 including the power supply procurement risk value 34a based on the supply and demand fluctuation prediction data 31 acquired in step S301 and the total power supply uncertainty data calculated in step S302.

FIG. 13 is a graph of probability distribution showing calculation processing of total power supply uncertainty data in S302. The horizontal axis of the graph indicates the power supply output (control output) for all the procurement power sources included in the supply and demand control plan data 32, and the vertical axis of the graph indicates the occurrence probability of each control output.
The power supply procurement risk calculation unit 14 estimates the probability distribution for the control output of each power supply for procurement from the control achievement probability 33c of the power supply control uncertainty data 33 acquired in S301. Then, the power supply procurement risk calculation unit 14 estimates the probability distribution for the total output of the allocated procurement power source as shown in FIG. 13 as total power supply uncertainty data from the calculation result of the convolution sum of the estimated individual probability distributions. Do.

Furthermore, as S303, the power supply procurement risk calculation unit 14 can not ensure the supply amount of the same amount as the supply and demand fluctuation forecast data 31 with respect to the probability distribution of FIG. 13 (that is, the value of the probability that the power supply is insufficient). Define the power supply procurement risk value 34a.
At this time, the power supply procurement risk calculation unit 14 adopts a normal distribution which is defined using the control output command value as the average value μ and the variance set in advance using σ ² based on the probability distribution of FIG. The probability r1 of achieving the control output within a certain output fluctuation range r1 (the shaded area in FIG. 13) is calculated to be equal to the control achievement probability 33c.
Then, the power supply procurement risk calculation unit 14 may set the calculated r1 as the power supply procurement risk value 34a. Further, the power supply procurement risk calculation unit 14 may obtain the variance σ ² by a statistical analysis method using control command response result data as an input.

FIG. 14 is a flowchart for calculating the risk consideration plan data 35.
As S401, the supply and demand control plan correction unit 15 acquires the power supply procurement risk data 34 and the power supply procurement risk upper limit data 27.
As S402, the supply and demand control plan correction unit 15 extracts, from the power market bid data 25, the additional controllable procurement power source not yet included in the current plan data (supply and demand control plan data 32 or risk consideration plan data 35). Do.

In S403, the supply and demand control plan correction unit 15 selects the power supply for procurement to be newly added to the plan data from the power supplies for procurement extracted in S402. The power supply procurement risk value 34a can be improved because the additional power supply for procurement can afford the power supply.
The supply and demand control plan correction unit 15 satisfies the control performance requirements such as the output change rate as the determination criteria of the power supply for procurement to be added, and targets the power supply for procurement with low power supply procurement cost based on merit order. Alternatively, it is desirable to select a power supply for procurement with high power supply cost as a target for output reduction. In other words, the total cost of the power supply for procurement can be efficiently reduced by preferentially adding the low cost procurement power supply as much as possible when the supply is insufficient, and preferentially releasing the high cost procurement power supply when possible. .

As S404, the supply and demand control plan correction unit 15 creates risk consideration plan data 35 in which the power supply for procurement selected in S403 is added to the current plan data (in other words, by adding a new power supply for procurement, Modify the plan data of Then, the power supply procurement risk calculation unit 14 calculates the power supply procurement risk value 34 a also for the corrected latest risk consideration plan data 35 as in the flowchart of FIG. 12.
At S405, the supply and demand control plan correction unit 15 determines whether or not the power supply procurement risk value 34a calculated at S404 is within the determination standard. If No in S405, the process returns to S403. If Yes in S405, the risk consideration plan data 35 in consideration of the power supply procurement risk value 34a is created, and the process is ended. The lower the power supply risk value 34a is, the lower the power supply risk value 34a is. Therefore, for example, the power supply risk upper limit value 27a of the power supply risk upper limit data 27 acquired in S401 is used as the power supply risk value 34a. In the case where the value of 需給 is smaller than, the supply and demand control plan correction unit 15 determines that the judgment standard is satisfied.

15 to 17 are graphs for supplementarily explaining the process of FIG. The horizontal axis of the graph shows the fluctuation period divided into three periods C1, C2 and C3, and the vertical axis of the graph shows the fluctuation range of the power supply and demand in each fluctuation period.

FIG. 15 is a graph based on the optimistic assumption that 100% control command data 26a response performance data 26b can be obtained in the power supply for procurement as well as the own power supply without considering the power supply procurement risk.
As for the upward sloping curve of this graph, the solid line in the middle of the three shows total supply and demand fluctuation value 31a, and the two broken lines sandwiching the solid line above and below add the total supply and demand fluctuation value 31b to total supply and demand fluctuation value 31a. Indicate the value.
Six squares of this graph indicate the output of the power supply for procurement allocated to each fluctuation period as the supply and demand control plan data 32 (for example, a value “5” on the right of G1 in FIG. 8).

In FIG. 15, the sum of output of the power supply for procurement covers the case where the demand of the total demand fluctuation value 31a is the highest (the broken line at the top) in any of the fluctuation cycles of three periods. , Lack of control (lack of supply) does not occur. For example, in the fluctuation period C1, the supply / demand fluctuation range (the height of the upper side of the square of G2a) of the total output of the two power supplies for procurement G1a and G2a is sufficiently high and higher than the top broken line. is there.

FIG. 16 is a graph in the case where a shortage of control occurs in the power supply for procurement because the power supply procurement risk actually exists, unlike FIG.
First, the power sources for procurement G1a to G5a in FIG. 15 and the power sources for procurement G1b to G5b in FIG. 16 correspond to each other 1: 1. Here, reflecting the event that the power supply for procurement can not be procured due to the power supply procurement risk, the control amount (size of the square) of each power supply for procurement is the actual value of FIG. 16 rather than the theoretical value of FIG. It has fallen. For example, the power supply G4b for procurement is lower than the power supply G4a for procurement in the fluctuation cycle C3, and the power supply G5b for procurement is lower than the power supply G5a for procurement. In other words, the power supply control uncertainty data 33 (control achievement probability 33c) is reflected in each procurement power source.

Thus, in the fluctuation period C3, the graph line of the total supply and demand fluctuation value 31a (the upper broken line among the three lines) including the total supply and demand error value 31b is the sum of the supply and demand fluctuation range (sum of the power supplies G4b and G5b for procurement) A "lack of control" that is larger than the total power supply uncertainty data (S302) occurs. That is, it is necessary for the supply and demand control plan correction unit 15 to correct the supply and demand control plan data 32 in which the “control shortage” exists due to the power supply procurement risk as shown in FIG.

FIG. 17 is a graph showing risk consideration plan data 35 in which the supply and demand control plan correction unit 15 corrects the supply and demand control plan data 32 with respect to the state of FIG. 16. Although the supply and demand control plan data 32 of FIG. 16 includes six procurement power sources G1a to G5a, a seventh seventh procurement power source G6 is added to the risk consideration plan data 35 of FIG.
As a result, the “control shortage” as shown in FIG. 16 is eliminated, whereby the power supply procurement risk value 34 a can be lowered. That is, although the supply / demand control plan data 32 before the correction did not pass the determination process of S405 (No), the post-correction risk consideration plan data 35 can pass the determination process of S405 (Yes).

In the present embodiment described above, the power supply procurement risk calculation unit 14 uses the power supply procurement risk data 34 of the power supply for procurement included in the supply and demand control plan data 32 based on the past control achievement probability 33c of the individual power supplies for procurement. calculate. Then, the supply and demand control plan correction unit 15 additionally supplies the power supply for procurement to the extent that the power supply procurement risk upper limit data 27 satisfies the standard, and thereby the power supply procurement risk value 34a which is an evaluation value of the supply and demand control plan data 32 is obtained. Lower.
Then, the power supply and demand control device 1 controls the power supply for procurement from the power market management system 300 using the risk consideration plan data 35 that satisfies the criteria, so that the power generation amount fluctuation value 23 is unexpectedly large due to abnormal weather or the like. Even when the supply amount shortage occurs due to fluctuations, stable supply and demand control can be realized.
Furthermore, the power supply and demand control device 1 controls supply and demand by selecting the power supply for procurement with reference to the power supply procurement cost from the power market bid data 25 so as to reduce the total cost of the power supply for procurement included in the plan data as much as possible. It is possible to economically utilize a procurement power source that incorporates uncertainty in performance.

The present invention is not limited to the embodiments described above, but includes various modifications. For example, the above-described embodiments are described in detail in order to explain the present invention in an easy-to-understand manner, and are not necessarily limited to those having all the described configurations.
Also, part of the configuration of one embodiment can be replaced with the configuration of another embodiment, and the configuration of another embodiment can be added to the configuration of one embodiment.
In addition, with respect to a part of the configuration of each embodiment, it is possible to add, delete, and replace other configurations. Further, each of the configurations, functions, processing units, processing means, etc. described above may be realized by hardware, for example, by designing part or all of them with an integrated circuit.
Further, each configuration, function, and the like described above may be realized by software by a processor interpreting and executing a program that realizes each function.

Information such as programs, tables, and files that realize each function is a memory, a hard disk, a recording device such as a solid state drive (SSD), an integrated circuit (IC) card, an SD card, a digital versatile disc (DVD), etc. Can be placed on the
Further, control lines and information lines indicate what is considered to be necessary for the description, and not all control lines and information lines in the product are necessarily shown. In practice, almost all configurations may be considered to be mutually connected.
Furthermore, the communication means connecting the respective devices is not limited to the wireless LAN, and may be changed to a wired LAN or other communication means.

1 Power supply and demand control device (power planning device)
DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 Processing part 11 Supply-demand fluctuation prediction part 12 Supply-and-demand control plan preparation part 13 Power-supply control uncertainty calculation part 14 Power-supply procurement risk calculation part 15 Supply-and-demand control plan correction part (supply-and-demand control planning part)
21 Frequency fluctuation value 22 Interconnected power flow fluctuation value 23 Power generation value fluctuation value 24 Weather fluctuation value 25 Electricity market bid data 26 Control command response result data 26a Control command data 26b Response result data 26c Supply and demand condition data 27 Power supply procurement risk upper limit data 27a Power supply Procurement risk upper limit value 31 supply and demand fluctuation forecast data 31a total supply and demand fluctuation value 31b total supply and demand error value 32 supply and demand control plan data 33 power control uncertainty data 33a control command data 33b supply and demand condition data 33c control achievement probability 34 power supply risk data 34a power supply Procurement risk value 35 Risk consideration plan data

Claims

Based on the power supply output probability for each of the above mentioned power supplies, the control achievement probability indicating the degree to which the control at the time of the control was achieved according to the command was obtained for each of the power supplies for procurement with the risk of procuring from the power market. A power supply procurement risk calculation unit that calculates power supply procurement risk data, which is the probability that the power supply for procurement to be controlled included in the supply and demand control plan data can not output the required power supply output;
A power supply planning apparatus, comprising: a supply and demand control planning unit that adds the supply power source as a control target to the supply and demand control plan data until the power supply procurement risk data reaches a predetermined standard.
Based on the control command data in the past for the power source for procurement and response result data indicating the control content actually performed according to the control command data, the control achievement probability is calculated and the power supply risk calculation unit The power planning apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising a power control control uncertainty calculation unit to be input.
When the power supply procurement risk calculation unit calculates the power supply procurement risk data for each of the supply and demand control plan data, fluctuation of the supply and demand fluctuation of the required power supply output and the power supply output of the procurement power supply The power planning apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the power planning apparatus is calculated by dividing each cycle.
A demand / supply fluctuation prediction unit that calculates the predicted value of the required power supply output based on at least one of the frequency fluctuation value, the interconnection flow fluctuation value, the power generation fluctuation value, and the meteorological fluctuation value. The power planning apparatus according to claim 1, comprising:
The supply and demand control planning unit receives an input of the supply and demand control plan data that already includes one or more of the power supplies for procurement, and adds the power supply for procurement to the input and demand control plan data that has been input. The power planning device according to claim 1.
A power planning apparatus according to claim 1 and a power market management system for providing the power supply for procurement included in the supply and demand control plan data are connected by a network.
The power market management system includes at least one of a thermal power generation source, a hydroelectric power source, a storage battery control power source, a pumped storage power source, a charge and discharge control power source of an electric vehicle, a DR power source, a micro grid control power source, and a VPP control power source. A power supply and demand control system, comprising providing a power supply as the power supply for procurement.
The power planning device has a power supply procurement risk calculation unit and a supply and demand control planning unit.
The power supply procurement risk calculation unit, for each procurement power supply with risk to be procured from the power market, a control achievement probability indicating the degree to which control at the time of performing control in the past was achieved according to a command; Calculation of power supply risk data, which is the probability that the power supply for procurement to be controlled included in the supply and demand control plan data can not output the required power supply output, based on the power supply output of each
The power supply planning method, wherein the supply and demand control planning unit adds the power supply for procurement as a control target to the supply and demand control plan data until the power supply procurement risk data reaches a predetermined standard.