WO2016151960A1 - Dispositif d'analyse de données, procédé d'analyse de données, et programme - Google Patents

Dispositif d'analyse de données, procédé d'analyse de données, et programme Download PDF

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Publication number
WO2016151960A1
WO2016151960A1 PCT/JP2015/084538 JP2015084538W WO2016151960A1 WO 2016151960 A1 WO2016151960 A1 WO 2016151960A1 JP 2015084538 W JP2015084538 W JP 2015084538W WO 2016151960 A1 WO2016151960 A1 WO 2016151960A1
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Prior art keywords
power
section
distribution station
supplied
occurrence
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PCT/JP2015/084538
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English (en)
Japanese (ja)
Inventor
仁 小山
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日本電気株式会社
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Application filed by 日本電気株式会社 filed Critical 日本電気株式会社
Priority to JP2017507341A priority Critical patent/JP6773025B2/ja
Publication of WO2016151960A1 publication Critical patent/WO2016151960A1/fr

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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/06—Energy or water supply
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/10—Services
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J13/00—Circuit arrangements for providing remote indication of network conditions, e.g. an instantaneous record of the open or closed condition of each circuitbreaker in the network; Circuit arrangements for providing remote control of switching means in a power distribution network, e.g. switching in and out of current consumers by using a pulse code signal carried by the network
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • H02J3/04—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks for connecting networks of the same frequency but supplied from different sources
    • H02J3/06—Controlling transfer of power between connected networks; Controlling sharing of load between connected networks
    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
    • H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
    • H02J3/38—Arrangements for parallely feeding a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
    • Y02E40/00—Technologies for an efficient electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
    • Y02E40/70—Smart grids as climate change mitigation technology in the energy generation sector
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
    • Y02E60/00—Enabling technologies; Technologies with a potential or indirect contribution to GHG emissions mitigation
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
    • Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
    • Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
    • Y04S10/12—Monitoring or controlling equipment for energy generation units, e.g. distributed energy generation [DER] or load-side generation
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
    • Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
    • Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
    • Y04S10/16—Electric power substations
    • Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
    • Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
    • Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
    • Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

Definitions

  • the present invention relates to a data analysis device, a data analysis method, and a program.
  • Patent Document 1 discloses a power system monitoring control device configured to monitor and control a power system.
  • the power system monitoring and control device distributes consumers based on the meteorological information capturing means for capturing the current weather information, the current weather information captured by the weather information capturing means, and the power generation model of the distributed power source of the consumer.
  • Power generation assumption coefficient calculation means for calculating the current power generation assumption coefficient of the type power supply, the current power generation assumption coefficient calculated by the power generation assumption coefficient calculation means, and the power generation amount / load of the customer set in the power system database
  • a power generation amount / load calculating means for calculating a current power generation amount / load of the distributed power source of the consumer based on the information;
  • An object of the present invention is to provide a new technique for realizing stable power supply.
  • data acquisition means for acquiring the distribution station performance for each section, which is the current or the actual power supplied from the distribution station; By subtracting the distribution station results before the occurrence of a power outage from the distribution station results after a power failure recovery in the event of a past power outage, the current or power that the private power generation device was supplying to the section before the power outage occurred
  • a private power generation result acquisition means for acquiring a private power generation result
  • Weather data acquisition means for acquiring weather data;
  • a data analysis device having a private power generation estimation means for estimating the private power generation record based on the private power generation record and the weather data at each occurrence of a past power failure.
  • a private power generator connected to a private power generation device that is disconnected in the event of a power outage that is a part of the power network to which power is supplied from the power distribution station and that stops power supply from the power distribution station to the private power generation device.
  • Data acquisition means for acquiring power distribution record data for each section indicating a power distribution result that is a result of current or power supplied from the power distribution station in the section to which power is supplied,
  • Weather data acquisition means for acquiring weather data; Based on the results of supplying power to the section from the power distribution station before the occurrence of a power outage at the time of each past power outage, the weather data, and the results of supplying power to the section from the power distribution station after power failure recovery
  • an estimation formula for estimating the power or current to be supplied to each section from the distribution station after the power failure recovery is generated from the actual results and the weather data that were supplied to the section from the distribution station before the power failure occurred
  • Estimating formula generating means for Is provided is provided.
  • a data acquisition step of acquiring the distribution station performance which is the current or power history supplied from the distribution station, for each section; By subtracting the distribution station results before the occurrence of a power outage from the distribution station results after a power failure recovery in the event of a past power outage, the current or power that the private power generation device was supplying to the section before the power outage occurred
  • An in-house power generation result acquisition process for acquiring an in-house power generation result A weather data acquisition process for acquiring weather data; and An estimation step for estimating the private power generation performance based on the private power generation performance and the weather data at each occurrence of a past power outage;
  • a data analysis method for performing is provided.
  • data acquisition means for acquiring the distribution station performance for each section, which is a record of current or power supplied from the distribution station, By subtracting the distribution station results before the occurrence of a power outage from the distribution station results after a power failure recovery in the event of a past power outage, the current or power that the private power generation device was supplying to the section before the power outage occurred
  • In-house power generation result acquisition means for acquiring a certain in-house power generation result
  • Weather data acquisition means for acquiring weather data;
  • Estimating means for estimating the in-house power generation performance based on the in-house power generation performance and the weather data at each occurrence of a past power outage, A program for functioning as a server is provided.
  • Computer A private power generator connected to a private power generation device that is disconnected in the event of a power outage that is a part of the power network to which power is supplied from the power distribution station and that stops power supply from the power distribution station to the private power generation device.
  • an estimation formula for estimating the power or current to be supplied to each section from the distribution station after the power failure recovery is generated from the actual results and the weather data that were supplied to the section from the distribution station before the power failure occurred
  • An estimation formula generating step to A data analysis method for performing is provided.
  • Computer A private power generator connected to a private power generation device that is disconnected in the event of a power outage that is a part of the power network to which power is supplied from the power distribution station and that stops power supply from the power distribution station to the private power generation device.
  • a data acquisition means for acquiring power distribution record data for each section indicating a power distribution result that is a result of current or power supplied from the power distribution station in the section to which power is supplied;
  • Weather data acquisition means for acquiring weather data; Based on the results of supplying power to the section from the power distribution station before the occurrence of a power outage at the time of each past power outage, the weather data, and the results of supplying power to the section from the power distribution station after power failure recovery
  • an estimation formula for estimating the power or current to be supplied to each section from the distribution station after the power failure recovery is generated from the actual results and the weather data that were supplied to the section from the distribution station before the power failure occurred
  • Estimation formula generating means for A program for functioning as a server is provided.
  • Each unit included in the apparatus of the present embodiment is stored in a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a memory, a program loaded into the memory, a storage unit such as a hard disk storing the program (from the stage of shipping the apparatus in advance). It can also store programs downloaded from CDs (Compact Discs) and other servers and servers on the Internet), and any combination of hardware and software, centering on the network connection interface Realized.
  • CPU Central Processing Unit
  • CDs Compact Discs
  • FIG. 3 is a diagram conceptually illustrating an example of the hardware configuration of the apparatus according to the present embodiment.
  • the apparatus according to the present embodiment includes, for example, a CPU 1A, a RAM (Random Access Memory) 2A, a ROM (Read Only Memory) 3A, a display control unit 4A, a display 5A, and operation reception that are connected to each other via a bus 10A.
  • other elements such as an input / output interface connected to an external device by wire, a microphone, and a speaker may be provided.
  • the CPU 1A controls the entire computer of the apparatus together with each element.
  • the ROM 3A includes an area for storing programs for operating the computer, various application programs, various setting data used when these programs operate.
  • the RAM 2A includes an area for temporarily storing data, such as a work area for operating a program.
  • the auxiliary storage device 9A is, for example, an HDD (Hard Disc Drive), and can store a large amount of data.
  • the display 5A is, for example, a display device (LED (Light Emitting Diode) display, liquid crystal display, organic EL (Electro Luminescence) display, etc.).
  • the display 5A may be a touch panel display integrated with a touch pad.
  • the display control unit 4A reads data stored in a VRAM (Video RAM), performs predetermined processing on the read data, and then sends the data to the display 5A to display various screens.
  • the operation reception unit 6A receives various operations via the operation unit 7A.
  • the operation unit 7A includes operation keys, operation buttons, switches, a jog dial, a touch panel display, a keyboard, and the like.
  • the communication unit 8A is wired and / or wirelessly connected to a network such as the Internet or a LAN (Local Area Network) and communicates with other electronic devices.
  • Fig. 1 schematically shows a part of the power grid that is spread throughout the country.
  • a plurality of distribution stations (substations) are installed in the power network.
  • the power network is divided into a plurality of sections by a circuit breaker that opens and closes the power network.
  • Each power distribution station transforms power received from a power plant (not shown) and then supplies it to a predetermined section.
  • Setting and changing the supply route (power supply route) of power supplied from each distribution station is performed by opening and closing the circuit breaker.
  • FIG. 1 shows a PV (solar power generator) as an example of a private power generator.
  • Each section power network
  • Such an in-house power generator is disconnected from the power grid in order to prevent isolated operation and inconvenience of damage to the own device due to overcurrent when a power outage that stops power supply from the distribution station to each section occurs. .
  • Each section is connected to a load (not shown) that consumes the power supplied from the distribution station and PV.
  • the circuit breaker between the second section and the third section and the circuit breaker between the third section and the fourth section are closed, Separate sections. Then, the first power distribution station resumes power supply to the first and second sections.
  • a section (the fourth and fifth sections in the case of the examples of FIGS. 1 and 2) that cannot receive power supply from a power distribution station that had been supplied with power before disconnecting due to disconnection of a certain section is an interchange section That's it.
  • the circuit breaker between the fifth section and the eighth section that was closed before (the state of FIG. 1) is open.
  • the second power plant supplies power to the sixth to eighth sections, the fifth and fourth sections. That is, the second power plant that supplied power only to the sixth to eighth sections before the occurrence of the power outage further changed the fifth and fourth sections (with the change of the power supply route according to the disconnection of the third section). Electricity is also supplied to the accommodation section.
  • the electric power company does not have a means of grasping the power consumption of the consumer, naturally, the electric power company cannot grasp the power consumption of the interchange section at that time (before the occurrence of the power failure).
  • a situation may occur in which the distribution station that supplies power to the accommodation section in the changed power supply route exceeds the supply capacity. That is, in the case of the example in FIG. 2, in addition to the sixth to eighth sections that were supplied before the occurrence of the power failure, the second distribution that has further supplied power to the interchange sections (fourth and fifth sections).
  • the capacity exceeds the supply capacity.
  • the power distribution station is under the control of the electric utility. For this reason, the electric power company can grasp
  • the private power generator is characterized by being disconnected from the power grid.
  • the distribution station that supplies power to the accommodation section in the changed power supply route exceeds the supply capacity is likely to occur.
  • description will be made with reference to FIGS. 1 and 2.
  • FIG. 1 shows a state before the occurrence of a power failure.
  • FIG. 2 shows a state after the third section is disconnected and restored after a power failure occurs.
  • PV in the first to fifth sections where a power failure has occurred is disconnected from the power grid.
  • the PV supplies power to the first to fifth sections before the occurrence of a power failure.
  • FIG. 2 after restoration, PV is disconnected in the first to fifth sections, and power is not supplied from the PV to each section. For this reason, as shown in FIGS. 1 and 2, even if the power consumption before and after the occurrence of a power failure in the interchange section (fourth and fifth sections) is the same, the power is cut off after the restoration because the PV is disconnected. The power supplied from the power distribution station will increase compared to before the occurrence.
  • the data analysis apparatus 10 includes “a means for acquiring actual data of electric power or current supplied from the private power generator in each section” and “machine learning using the actual data and weather data as teacher data. Means for generating a prediction formula for predicting the actual result from the meteorological data.
  • the outline of each means is as follows.
  • the data analysis device 10 is based on actual data of power or current supplied to each section from the power distribution station, specifically, actual data before and after the occurrence of a power outage when a power outage occurs. Obtain actual data of supplied power or current. Specifically, based on the characteristic that “the private power generator is disconnected when a power outage occurs”, the power or current supplied from the power distribution station to each section after the power outage is restored. By subtracting the record of the power or current supplied to the section, the record of the power or current supplied from the private power generator to each section before the occurrence of a power failure is obtained.
  • the data analysis apparatus 10 uses the above estimation formula by machine learning with the weather data at the time of the power outage as an explanatory variable, and the actual variable of the power or current supplied from the private power generator in each section before the power outage as an objective variable. Generate.
  • FIG. 4 shows an example of a functional block diagram of the data analysis apparatus 10 of the present embodiment.
  • the data analysis device 10 includes a data acquisition unit 11, a private power generation result acquisition unit 12, a weather data acquisition unit 13, and an estimation formula generation unit 14.
  • the data acquisition part 11 acquires the distribution station performance data for every section which shows the result (distribution station performance) of the electric current or electric power supplied from the distribution station to the one part area of the electric power network where electric power is supplied from a distribution station.
  • the data acquisition unit 11 acquires the power distribution record data for each section for each section.
  • Each section is connected to a private power generation device that is disconnected when a power failure occurs when power supply from the power distribution station to each section is stopped, and power is also supplied from the private power generation device.
  • the private power generator is a power generator that generates power using natural energy such as sunlight or wind power. Since the description of the power network and the section is as described above with reference to FIGS. 1 and 2, the description thereof is omitted here.
  • FIG. 5 schematically shows an example of power distribution record data for each section acquired by the data acquisition unit 11.
  • the section power distribution record data shown in the figure is data corresponding to a section ID (Identification) “10001”.
  • the date, time, power distribution supply current value (A), and power distribution supply power value (W) are associated with each other.
  • the distribution station supply current value (A) indicates the current value (A) supplied to each section by the distribution station at each time.
  • the power distribution supply power value (W) indicates the power value (W) supplied by the power distribution station to each section at each time.
  • the illustrated data is data every 30 seconds, but this is only an example.
  • the present invention is not limited to this.
  • the power distribution station can include a power distribution unit, a measurement unit, and a storage device.
  • the power distribution unit controls opening / closing of the circuit breaker by a computer, and controls power distribution (power supply route) to each section.
  • a measurement part measures the total electric power value (W) or electric current value (A) which each distribution station supplies to a some area in the fundamental part of the electric power supply route of each distribution station.
  • Data (distribution station performance data) measured by the measurement unit is accumulated in the storage device.
  • FIG. 7 schematically shows an example of distribution station performance data accumulated in the storage device.
  • Distribution station performance data is updated in real time.
  • the distribution station performance data is data corresponding to the distribution station ID “0000A”.
  • the date, time, current value (A), power value (W), and section ID are associated with each other.
  • the current value (A) and the power value (W) are measured values at each time measured by the measuring unit.
  • the section ID the ID of one or a plurality of sections in which power is supplied from the distribution station at each time is described. That is, the ID of one or a plurality of sections included in the power supply route under the power station is described.
  • the power distribution unit may manage and update the field.
  • the data acquisition unit 11 may acquire the distribution station performance data from each distribution station. And the data acquisition part 11 may produce
  • the data acquisition unit 11 may equally apportion the current value and power value at each time in the distribution station performance data (see FIG. 7) in the section where the power distribution station supplies power at that time. .
  • a distribution station with a distribution station ID “0000A” is supplying power to three sections with section IDs “10001”, “10002”, and “10003” at 0:00:00 on January 1, 2015.
  • the data acquisition unit 11 calculates the power supplied from the distribution station in each of the three sections with section IDs “10001”, “10002”, and “10003” at that time as ⁇ / 3W. May be.
  • the data acquisition unit 11 may hold a distribution ratio (the ratio in the distribution status column shown in the figure) in advance. Then, based on the apportioning ratio, the current value and the power value supplied by the distribution station may be divided into a plurality of sections.
  • the apportioning ratio in FIG. 8 is applied in the above example, the data acquisition unit 11 sets ⁇ W at a ratio of 91:88:95, the section ID “10001”, the section ID “10002”, and the section ID “10003”. It will be divided into each.
  • the apportioning ratio can be determined in advance by the operator of the data analysis apparatus 10 and stored in the data acquisition unit 11.
  • the operator for example, based on the number of consumers in each section, the contract contents (contract amperes, etc.) between the consumer and the electric power company in each section, the number of private power generators, the rated output of the private power generator, etc.
  • a proration rate can be determined. For example, it may be prorated according to the ratio of the value of “(total contracted amperage) ⁇ (total rated output of private power generator)” in each section.
  • the data acquisition unit 11 calculates the current value or the power value that the distribution station has supplied to each section at each time, for example, by such a process, so that the distribution station results for each section as shown in FIG. Data may be acquired for each section.
  • the power distribution record data for each section may be updated in real time.
  • the private power generation record acquisition unit 12 determines from the “distribution station record after power failure recovery” at the time of the past power failure occurrence to “before power failure occurrence” based on past section power distribution record data (see FIG. 5). By subtracting the “distribution station record”, the record of the current or power (in-house power generation record) supplied by the private power generation device to each section before the occurrence of the power failure is obtained.
  • the in-house power generation result acquisition unit 12 includes “a process for identifying a power outage that has occurred in the past”, “a process for identifying a section in which the in-house power generation device is disconnected by each specified power outage”, “for each identified section”
  • a process of calculating a current (power generation result) of current or power supplied by the private power generation device before the occurrence of the power failure is executed.
  • each process will be described.
  • the private power generation performance acquisition unit 12 acquires power outage history data indicating a history of power outages that occurred in the past for each distribution station.
  • FIG. 9 schematically shows an example of power failure history data.
  • a power failure ID for identifying each of the plurality of power failures that occurred, the date and time when each power failure occurred, and the ID of the section separated by each power failure (separated section ID) and Are associated.
  • Such power failure history data may be stored in the data analysis device 10 or may be stored in another external device.
  • the private power generation result acquisition unit 12 can acquire the power failure history data stored in the data analysis device 10 or other external device by any communication means.
  • the section where the in-house power generator is disconnected due to a power failure is a section where the power distribution station where the power failure occurred supplies power before the power failure occurs.
  • the private power generation record acquisition unit 12 can identify a power failure and date and time of occurrence at each power distribution station by referring to the power failure history data (see FIG. 9). By searching the distribution result data (see Fig. 7) of the corresponding distribution station using the occurrence date and time as a key, the section where the distribution station was supplying power before the occurrence of each power failure, that is, private power generation due to each power failure The section in which the device is to be disconnected can be identified.
  • the in-house power generation result acquisition unit 12 is based on the power distribution result data for each section identified in the above process (see FIG. 5). Power generation value before power failure occurs by subtracting "distribution station performance (distribution station supply current value or distribution station power value) before the power failure occurrence date (before power failure occurrence)" Acquire the current (power generation results) of the current or power that the device was supplying to each section.
  • distributed station performance before power failure occurrence date is the date and time closest to the power failure occurrence date and time before the power failure occurrence date and time in the distribution data for each section (see Fig. 5).
  • the track record (current value or power value) that is associated may be used.
  • distributed station performance before power failure occurrence date is a predetermined time before power failure occurrence date and time (for example: 1 minute before 30 seconds before) ) May be a record (current value or power value) associated with the date and time closest to the date and time.
  • distributed station performance before power failure occurrence date is a predetermined time (for example, 5 minutes before and 1 minute before the power failure occurrence date) in the distribution data for each section (see Fig. 5). , 30 seconds before), and statistical values (eg, maximum value, minimum value, average value, mode value) obtained based on the results (current value or power value) included in the range starting from the power outage date and time , Median, etc.).
  • distributed station performance after power failure occurrence date is the date and time closest to the power failure occurrence date and time after the power failure occurrence date and time in the distribution data for each section (see FIG. 5). It may be a record (current value or power value) associated with.
  • distributed results after power failure occurrence date and time is a predetermined time (eg, 1 minute and 30 seconds later) from the power failure occurrence date and time in the distribution data for each section (see Fig. 5). ) May be a record (current value or power value) associated with the date and time closest to the date and time.
  • Distribution performance after power failure occurrence date and time starts from the power failure occurrence date and time for a predetermined time (eg: Statistical values (eg, maximum value, minimum value, average value, mode value) obtained based on results (current value or power value) included in the range with the end point being 5 minutes, 1 minute, and 30 seconds later) , Median, etc.).
  • Statistical values eg, maximum value, minimum value, average value, mode value obtained based on results (current value or power value) included in the range with the end point being 5 minutes, 1 minute, and 30 seconds later
  • the private power generation result acquisition unit 12 identifies a section in which the private power generation apparatus is disconnected due to each power failure for each power failure that has occurred in the past, based on the power failure history data and the distribution station performance data. . Then, for each identified section, the current or power record (in-house power generation record) that the private power generation apparatus was supplying to each section before the occurrence of the power failure is acquired.
  • the meteorological data acquisition unit 13 acquires meteorological data.
  • the weather data acquired by the weather data acquisition unit 13 may be accumulated in the data analysis device 10.
  • Meteorological data includes at least one item of data that affects power generation using natural energy (solar, wind, etc.).
  • weather data may include items such as temperature, humidity, wind direction, wind speed, precipitation, weather, upper cloud cover, middle cloud cover, lower cloud cover, total cloud cover, ground pressure, sea level pressure, solar radiation, etc. It is not limited.
  • FIG. 10 schematically shows an example of weather data acquired by the weather data acquisition unit 13 and accumulated in the data analysis device 10.
  • the weather data shown is data every 30 seconds, but this is only an example.
  • the meteorological data acquired by the meteorological data acquiring unit 13 may be actual values, predicted values announced at earlier timings, or a mixture of these. Moreover, the weather data acquisition part 13 may acquire the weather data of each of several area for every area.
  • the estimation formula generation unit 14 generates an estimation formula for estimating “in-house power generation results” from “weather data” by machine learning using in-house power generation results and weather data at each past power outage occurrence as teacher data for each section. Generate. In the machine learning, the current or power record that the distribution station has supplied to each section before the occurrence of a power failure may be used as teacher data.
  • FIG. 11 schematically shows an example of teacher data.
  • FIG. 11 shows teacher data corresponding to the section ID “10001”.
  • the private power supply current value (A) and private power supply power value (W) are shown as candidate objective variables.
  • the private power generation supply current value (A) and the private power generation supply power value (W) are a current value (A) and a power value (W) that the private power generation apparatus supplies to each section, respectively.
  • the value acquired by the private power generation result acquisition unit 12 can be used as the value in the teacher data.
  • meteorological data is data at the time of occurrence of each power outage acquired by the meteorological data acquisition unit 13 (meteorological data at a timing close to when the power outage occurs).
  • the meteorological data is data corresponding to each section (for example, meteorological data measured at an observation point closest to each section, predicted data at a point closest to each section).
  • the distribution station supply record before the occurrence of a power failure is the record (current value and / or power value) that the distribution station provided to each section before the occurrence of each power failure. This value can be acquired from the power distribution record for each section (see FIG. 5). At least one of the plurality of items can be an explanatory variable.
  • the thesis variable includes at least one weather data.
  • Any method such as multiple regression, neural network, support vector machine, etc. can be used as the machine learning method.
  • the technique disclosed in International Publication No. 2014/119226 may be adopted.
  • estimation formula generation unit 14 may group the teacher data for each section based on the attribute of the teacher data, and generate the estimation formula for each group based on the teacher data belonging to each group.
  • each section has as many estimation equations as the number of groups.
  • the attribute used for grouping may be, for example, weather data. That is, a plurality of teacher data may be grouped based on weather data. For example, it can be considered that the amount of solar radiation is divided into A or more and less than A (condition 1), and the temperature is divided into B or more and less than B.
  • the attribute may be a date or time. For example, grouping may be performed based on the month (for example, teacher data from July to September may be grouped), or grouped based on the time (for example, teacher data from 11:00 to 14:00 may be grouped). May be.
  • condition 1 “sunshine amount is A or higher”, condition 2 “temperature is B or higher”, condition 3 “July to September”
  • a group may be created by combining those satisfying the expression (for example, satisfying condition 1, condition 2, and condition 3).
  • teacher data may belong to a plurality of groups, or teacher data that does not belong to any group may exist.
  • FIG. 12 shows an example in which the estimation formula generation unit 14 generates a plurality of estimation formulas for each section.
  • a power failure occurs based on actual data of power or current supplied from the distribution station to each section, specifically, actual data before and after the occurrence of a power outage when a power outage occurs. It is possible to obtain the actual data of the power or current previously supplied from the private power generator in each section. Then, by machine learning using the actual data and the weather data at the time of power outage as teacher data, an estimation formula for estimating the power or current supplied by the private power generation device to each section can be obtained from the weather data. .
  • the present embodiment in which such an estimation formula can be obtained, it is possible to estimate the electric power or current that the private power generation apparatus supplies to each section based on weather data. For example, based on the estimation formula of the interchange section and the meteorological data at the time of the power outage at the time of the power outage, estimate the actual power or current that the private power generator supplied to the accommodation section before the power outage occurred Can do.
  • the data analysis apparatus 10 of the present embodiment can group the teacher data according to the attribute and generate an estimation formula for each group.
  • the estimation formula generated by the data analysis apparatus 10 as described above, the accuracy of the estimation result of the power or current supplied to each section by the private power generation apparatus is improved. As a result, it is possible to more effectively suppress the occurrence of inconveniences as described above.
  • the data analysis apparatus 10 according to the present embodiment has a means for estimating power or current consumed in each section using the estimation formula generated by the data analysis apparatus 10 according to the first embodiment. Different from the first embodiment. Hereinafter, differences from the first embodiment will be described.
  • FIG. 13 shows an example of a functional block diagram of the data analysis apparatus 10 of the present embodiment.
  • the data analysis apparatus 10 includes a data acquisition unit 11, a private power generation result acquisition unit 12, a weather data acquisition unit 13, an estimation formula generation unit 14, an estimation formula storage unit 17, and a private power generation supply estimation.
  • the configuration of the data acquisition unit 11, the private power generation result acquisition unit 12, the weather data acquisition unit 13 and the estimation formula generation unit 14 is the same as that of the first embodiment.
  • the estimation formula generated by the estimation formula generation unit 14 is stored in the estimation formula storage unit 17.
  • the estimation formula storage unit 17 stores an estimation formula in association with each section. As shown in FIG. 12, a plurality of estimation formulas may be stored in association with each section. In this case, the estimation formula storage unit 17 may store a rule (decision rule) for determining which of a plurality of estimation formulas corresponding to each section should be used.
  • FIG. 14 shows a decision tree as an example of the decision rule.
  • the estimation formula to be used is determined according to the temperature of the estimation target date and time, the transmission current of the estimation target date and time (current value supplied to each section from the power distribution station), and the amount of solar radiation of the estimation target date and time. Is done.
  • the operator generates a determination rule based on the grouping rule in the case of “grouping of teacher data and generation of an estimation formula for each group” described in the first embodiment, and an estimation formula storage unit 17 may be stored.
  • the distribution station supply estimation unit 19 estimates the current or power supplied to each section from the distribution station where the power failure occurred before the occurrence of the power failure in response to the detection of the occurrence of the power failure.
  • the data analysis device 10 may include a power failure detection unit (not shown).
  • the power failure detection unit detects the occurrence of a power failure at each distribution station.
  • the power failure detection unit identifies the power distribution station where the power failure occurred.
  • each power distribution station may be configured to notify the power failure detection unit when a power failure occurs. And based on the said notification, a power failure detection part may detect the occurrence of a power failure and identify the distribution station which failed.
  • the power outage detection unit detects a power outage and identifies the power distribution station where the power outage occurred, the power outage detection unit identifies the section where the power distribution station was supplying power before the power outage occurred, based on the latest distribution station performance data (see Figure 7) To do.
  • the distribution station supply estimation unit 19 was supplied to each section by the distribution station that had a power outage before the occurrence of the power outage, based on the section power distribution record data (see FIG. 5) for each section identified by the power outage detection unit. Specify current or power.
  • the current Ii supplied to the section i by the power distribution station before the power failure occurred may be calculated based on the following equation (1).
  • “If” is the total current supplied by the power distribution station. That is, it is a value measured by the measurement unit shown in FIG. 6 at the base part of the power supply route of the distribution station.
  • Wi is a received power setting value in the section i (a total of contract amperes by a plurality of consumers belonging to the section i).
  • W is a value obtained by adding the Wis of each of the plurality of sections to which the power distribution station that has lost power supplies the current.
  • Igi is the total current value that the private power generator supplies to section i.
  • Igi may be calculated based on the estimation formula described in the first embodiment and the weather data at that time.
  • Igi corresponds to “current or power supplied from the private power generation device before the occurrence of a power failure” estimated by the private power generation estimation unit 18 described below for each section.
  • Ig is a value obtained by adding together Ig of each of a plurality of sections supplied with current by the power distribution station that has failed.
  • “Current or power supplied to each section by the distribution station that had a power outage before the occurrence of a power outage” is the date and time of the power outage before the date and time of the power outage in the distribution data for each section (see Figure 5). It may be a record (current value or power value) associated with the date and time closest to. In addition, in the power distribution record data for each section (see FIG. 5), the record (current value or power) associated with the date and time closest to the date and time of a predetermined time (eg, one minute before and 30 seconds before) when the power failure occurred Value). In addition, in the power distribution record data for each section (see Fig.
  • the private power generation estimation unit 18 determines whether the current supplied from the private power generation device to the predetermined section before the occurrence of the power failure based on the weather data and the estimation formula or Estimate power. In addition, the private power generation supply estimation unit 18 may further use “current or power supplied to each section by the power distribution station where the power failure occurred before the occurrence of the power failure”.
  • the private power generation estimation unit 18 acquires the current weather data corresponding to each section specified by the power failure detection unit.
  • the meteorological data at that time may be, for example, the latest performance data of the observation point closest to each section identified by the power failure detection unit, or the point closest to the segment identified by the power failure detection unit. It may be timing prediction data.
  • the private power generation estimation unit 18 acquires an estimation formula for each section specified by the power failure detection unit. In addition, when there are a plurality of estimation formulas corresponding to each identified section, the private power generation estimation unit 18 is determined based on attributes such as weather data and date and time at that time, and a determination rule (see FIG. 14). Get two estimation formulas.
  • the private power generation and supply estimation unit 18 further uses the estimation formula and weather data acquired for each section, and if necessary, the actual current or power supplied from the distribution station to each section before the occurrence of a power failure.
  • the current or power supplied to the predetermined section (the section specified by the power failure detection unit) from the private power generator before the occurrence of the power failure is estimated.
  • the section consumption estimation unit 20 is estimated by the private power generation supply estimation unit 18 as “current or power supplied from the private power generation device to each section (each section specified by the power failure detection unit) before the occurrence of the power failure”, The power outage occurred by adding together the “current or power supplied to each section (each section specified by the power outage detection section) from the power distribution station” estimated by the distribution station supply estimation unit 19. The current consumption or power consumption of each section (each section specified by the power failure detection unit) in the front is estimated.
  • the power failure detection unit detects the occurrence of a power failure (S10). In response to this, the power failure detection unit identifies the distribution station where the power failure occurred. In addition, the power failure detection unit identifies a section in which the power distribution station where the power failure occurred supplies power before the occurrence of the power failure.
  • S10 a power failure
  • the distribution station supply estimation unit 19 estimates the current or power supplied by the distribution station before the occurrence of the power failure for each section specified by the power failure detection unit (S11).
  • An implementation example of the processing is as described above.
  • the private power generation estimation unit 18 estimates the current or power supplied by the private power generation device before the occurrence of the power failure for each section specified by the power failure detection unit (S12).
  • An implementation example of the processing is as described above. Note that the processing order of the processing of S11 and the processing of S12 is a matter of design.
  • the section consumption estimation unit 20 estimates in S12 that “current or power supplied to each section (each section specified by the power failure detection unit) from the distribution station before the occurrence of the power failure” estimated in S11. Added to each section (each section specified by the power failure detection unit) from the private power generation device before the occurrence of the power failure. The current consumption or power consumption of each section specified by the detection unit is estimated (S13).
  • the power consumption or the current consumption before the occurrence of the power outage in the section affected by the power outage (the section receiving power supply from the power distribution station where the power outage occurred) at the time of the power outage occurs.
  • the estimated value is a value calculated in consideration of the current or power supplied to each section by the private power generation device before the occurrence of the power failure, and the stoppage of power supply from the private power generation device in response to the power failure. is there. For this reason, sufficient accuracy is obtained for the estimated value.
  • the estimated “power consumption or current consumption in each section before the occurrence of a power outage” as “power or current to be supplied to each section from the distribution station after a power failure recovery” is estimated.
  • the data analysis device 10 specifies a section that becomes a flexible section by cutting a section when a power failure occurs. And the sum of the consumption current or power consumption of an accommodation section is calculated by adding together the consumption current or power consumption of each accommodation section before a power failure occurs.
  • the data analysis apparatus 10 of this embodiment is different from the first and second embodiments in this point. Hereinafter, differences from the first and second embodiments will be described.
  • FIG. 16 shows an example of a functional block diagram of the data analysis apparatus 10 of the present embodiment.
  • the data analysis apparatus 10 includes a data acquisition unit 11, a private power generation result acquisition unit 12, a weather data acquisition unit 13, an estimation formula generation unit 14, an estimation formula storage unit 17, and a private power generation supply estimation.
  • the data acquisition unit 11 private power generation result acquisition unit 12, weather data acquisition unit 13, estimation formula generation unit 14, estimation formula storage unit 17, private power generation supply estimation unit 18, distribution station supply estimation unit 19, and section consumption estimation unit 20
  • the configuration is the same as in the first and second embodiments.
  • a plurality of distribution stations are installed in the power network.
  • Each distribution station distributes power to a plurality of sections connected in series with each other.
  • the power distribution station is configured to disconnect only the problematic section and restart the power supply to the other sections when a power failure occurs.
  • a section where it becomes impossible to receive power supply from a power distribution station that had been supplied with power before disconnection due to disconnection of a certain section is referred to as an interchange section.
  • the blackout interchange section identifying unit 21 identifies a section (separated section) to be separated in response to detection of the occurrence of a power outage. Further, the power failure interchange section identification unit 21 identifies one or a plurality of sections (accommodation sections) in which power must be supplied from a power distribution station different from that before the occurrence of the power failure by separating the sections.
  • each distribution station may be notified of the determined separation section. Further, each distribution station may identify an interchange section in which power cannot be supplied by separating the determined separation section, and notify the interchange section identifying unit 21 during power failure. For example, each distribution station may hold in advance information associating the separation section and the accommodation section as shown in FIG. And based on the said information, you may identify an accommodation area.
  • the power supply route before the occurrence of a power failure is predetermined, a section that becomes a flexible section when a section is disconnected is uniquely determined.
  • the interchange section consumption estimation unit 22 adds the current consumption or power consumption before the occurrence of the power outage in each of the accommodation sections estimated by the section consumption estimation unit 20 to add the current consumption or power consumption before the occurrence of the power outage in the entire accommodation section. Estimate the sum of
  • the power failure detection unit detects the occurrence of a power failure (S20).
  • the power outage interchange section identifying unit 21 identifies a section that becomes the accommodation section in accordance with the power outage (S21).
  • the distribution station supply estimation unit 19 estimates the current or power supplied by the distribution station before the occurrence of the power failure for each interchange section (S22).
  • the interchange section is a part of the section where the power distribution station where the power failure occurred supplies power before the occurrence of the power failure.
  • the process described in the second embodiment is “the current or power supplied by the power distribution station before the occurrence of the power outage for each section in which the power distribution station that has been out of power supplies power before the power outage occurs”. This can be realized by the same means as the “estimating process”.
  • the private power generation estimation unit 18 estimates the current or power supplied by the private power generation device before the occurrence of a power failure for each interchange section (S23).
  • the interchange section is a part of the section where the power distribution station where the power failure occurred supplies power before the occurrence of the power failure.
  • the process described in the second embodiment is “the current or power supplied by the private power generation device before the occurrence of the power outage for each section in which the power distribution station where the power outage was supplied before the occurrence of the power outage”. It is realizable with the means similar to the process which estimates.
  • the section consumption estimation unit 20 estimates that “current or power supplied from the distribution station to each interchange section before the occurrence of the power failure” estimated in S22 and “in-house power generation before the occurrence of the power failure” estimated in S23.
  • the current consumption or power consumption in each interchange section before the occurrence of the power outage is estimated by adding together the “current or power supplied from the apparatus to each interchange section” (S24).
  • the accommodation section consumption estimation unit 22 estimates the consumption current or power consumption of the entire accommodation section by adding the consumption current or power consumption of each accommodation section estimated in S24 (S25).
  • the data analysis device 10 of the present embodiment when a power failure occurs, it is possible to specify a section that becomes an accommodation section according to the power failure. Moreover, according to the data analysis device 10 of the present embodiment, it is possible to estimate the current consumption or power consumption in each interchange section before the occurrence of a power failure. Furthermore, according to the data analysis device 10 of the present embodiment, it is possible to estimate the current consumption or power consumption of the entire interchange section before the occurrence of a power failure.
  • the estimated value is a value calculated in consideration of the current or power supplied to each section by the private power generation device before the occurrence of the power failure, and the stoppage of power supply from the private power generation device in response to the power failure. is there. For this reason, sufficient accuracy is obtained for the estimated value.
  • the data analysis apparatus 10 of the present embodiment includes a means for generating correction information that corrects the predicted value of current consumption or power consumption of the entire accommodation section calculated by the data analysis apparatus 10 of the third embodiment.
  • a means for generating correction information that corrects the predicted value of current consumption or power consumption of the entire accommodation section calculated by the data analysis apparatus 10 of the third embodiment.
  • FIG. 19 shows an example of a functional block diagram of the data analysis apparatus 10 of the present embodiment.
  • the data analysis device 10 includes a data acquisition unit 11, an in-house power generation result acquisition unit 12, a weather data acquisition unit 13, an estimation formula generation unit 14, an accommodation section identification unit 15, and a correction information generation unit. 16.
  • the configurations of the data acquisition unit 11, the private power generation result acquisition unit 12, the weather data acquisition unit 13, and the estimation formula generation unit 14 are the same as those in the first to third embodiments.
  • the interchange section specifying unit 15 is supplied with power from the first distribution station before the first section is disconnected, but one or more that cannot supply power from the first distribution station by disconnecting the first section.
  • a plurality of sections are specified.
  • the accommodation section specifying unit 15 specifies each accommodation section when each of the plurality of sections is separated.
  • the interchange section specifying unit 21 at the time of a power failure identifies a section that becomes an interchange section due to the power failure according to the occurrence of the power failure.
  • the accommodation section identification unit 15 identifies the accommodation section corresponding to each separation section when generating the correction information in the preparation stage in preparation for a power failure.
  • the accommodation section specifying unit 15 may hold information as illustrated in FIG. 17 in advance and specify the accommodation section based on the information.
  • Information indicating the accommodation section identified by the accommodation section identification unit 15 is input to the correction information generation unit 16.
  • the correction information generation unit 16 supplies past power distribution result data (FIG. 5) for each past section of the accommodation section identified by the accommodation section identification unit 15 and a power failure that affects the accommodation section (power is supplied to the accommodation section. Correction information for correcting the value calculated by the estimation formula is generated based on the meteorological data at the time of power outage at the distribution station and the estimation formula for each interchange section.
  • the correction information generation unit 16 may include the meteorological data at the time of a power failure that affects the interchange section, an estimation formula for each of the interchange sections, and the current supplied from the distribution station to each of the interchange sections before the occurrence of the power outage or Using the actual power, the current consumption or power consumption of each interchange section before the occurrence of the power outage is estimated. And the consumption current or power consumption of the whole accommodation section before the said power failure generation is estimated by adding the consumption current or power consumption estimated for every accommodation section (1st value). The first value is the same value as the estimated value obtained by the interchange interval consumption estimation unit 22.
  • the correction information generation part 16 adds together the distribution station performance (current value or power value) for each section after restoration from the power outage of each of the accommodation sections, and thereby consumes current for the entire accommodation section after restoration from the power outage.
  • the power consumption is specified (second value).
  • the second value can be considered an actual value.
  • the correction information generation unit 16 generates correction information for bringing the first value closer to the second value.
  • the correction coefficient may be obtained by dividing the second value by the first value.
  • the correction information generation unit 16 specifies one or a plurality of sections that become the accommodation section when the section is separated for each separation section. And the correction information for correct
  • the same operational effects as those of the first to third embodiments can be obtained.
  • the correction coefficient obtained by the data analysis device 10 of the present embodiment the accuracy of estimation of the current consumption or power consumption of the entire interchange section before the occurrence of a power failure is increased.
  • By changing the power supply route based on such an estimated value it is possible to suppress the occurrence of inconvenience that the distribution station that supplies power to the interchange section exceeds the supply capacity.
  • the data analysis apparatus 10 uses the correction information obtained in the fourth embodiment when a power failure occurs, and estimates the current consumption or power consumption of the entire interchange section before the power failure occurs. Different from the first to fourth embodiments. Hereinafter, differences from the first to third embodiments will be described.
  • FIG. 20 shows an example of a functional block diagram of the data analysis apparatus 10 of the present embodiment.
  • the data analysis device 10 includes a data acquisition unit 11, an in-house power generation result acquisition unit 12, a weather data acquisition unit 13, an estimation formula generation unit 14, an accommodation section identification unit 15, and a correction information generation unit.
  • a data acquisition unit 11 an in-house power generation result acquisition unit 12
  • a weather data acquisition unit 13 an estimation formula generation unit 14
  • an accommodation section identification unit 15 an accommodation section identification unit
  • a correction information generation unit 16
  • an estimation formula storage unit 17 a private power generation supply estimation unit 18
  • a distribution station supply estimation unit 19 a section consumption estimation unit 20
  • a blackout interchange section identification unit 21 a interchange section consumption estimation unit 22
  • a correction information storage unit 23 and a correction unit 24 are included.
  • the correction information storage unit 23 stores the correction information generated by the correction information generation unit 16.
  • the correction information storage unit 23 stores correction information in association with each separation section.
  • the correction unit 24 corrects the total current consumption or power consumption before the occurrence of the power outage in the entire accommodation section estimated by the accommodation section consumption estimation unit 22 based on the correction information generated by the correction information generation unit 16. For example, the correction is performed by multiplying the sum of current consumption or power consumption before the occurrence of the power outage in the entire accommodation section estimated by the accommodation section consumption estimation unit 22 by a correction coefficient (correction information).
  • the data analysis apparatus 10 of the present embodiment uses the correction information obtained in the fourth embodiment to correct the value estimated by the flexible section consumption estimation unit 22 so that the flexible section before the power failure occurs.
  • the accuracy of estimation of the overall current consumption or power consumption can be improved.
  • the data analysis device 50 includes “the actual data of the power or current supplied from the power distribution station to each section before the power failure occurs” and “the power or current supplied from the power distribution station to each section after the power failure is restored”.
  • the actual data and “meteorological data at the time of power outage” as teacher data
  • FIG. 21 shows an example of a functional block diagram of the data analysis apparatus 50 of the present embodiment.
  • the data analysis device 50 includes a data acquisition unit 51, a weather data acquisition unit 52, and an estimation formula generation unit 54.
  • the configuration of the data acquisition unit 51 is the same as the configuration of the data acquisition unit 11 described in the first to fifth embodiments.
  • the data acquisition unit 51 may be further configured to acquire the power failure history data (see FIG. 9) described in the first to fifth embodiments.
  • the configuration of the meteorological data acquisition unit 52 is the same as the configuration of the meteorological data acquisition unit 13 described in the first to fifth embodiments.
  • the estimation formula generation unit 54 For each section, the estimation formula generation unit 54 “actual data of power or current supplied from the power distribution station to each section before the occurrence of the power failure” and “power or current supplied from the power distribution station to each section after the power failure is restored” ”Actual data of power or current supplied to each section from power distribution station before power outage” and “When power outage occurs”
  • the estimation formula for estimating “the power or current to be supplied from the distribution station to each section after the restoration of power failure” is generated from “the meteorological data”.
  • FIG. 22 schematically shows an example of teacher data.
  • FIG. 22 shows teacher data for generating an estimation formula for the section with the section ID “10001”.
  • Both the “results of power or current supplied to each section from the distribution station before each blackout” and “results of power or current supplied from the power distribution station to each section after each power failure recovery” are both data acquisition units 51. Can be extracted from the distribution results for each section (see FIG. 5) and the power outage history data (see FIG. 9).
  • Weather data is as described in the first to fifth embodiments. “Meteorological data at the time of power outage” can be extracted from the weather data (see FIG. 10) acquired by the weather data acquisition unit 52.
  • the weather data can be data corresponding to each section (eg, meteorological data measured at an observation point closest to each section, predicted data closest to each section).
  • Any method such as multiple regression, neural network, support vector machine, etc. can be used as the machine learning method.
  • the technique disclosed in International Publication No. 2014/119226 may be adopted.
  • estimation formula generation unit 14 may group the teacher data for each section based on the attribute of the teacher data, and generate the estimation formula for each group based on the teacher data belonging to each group.
  • each section has as many estimation equations as the number of groups.
  • certain teacher data may belong to a plurality of groups, or there may be teacher data that does not belong to any group.
  • the attribute used for grouping may be, for example, weather data. That is, a plurality of teacher data may be grouped based on weather data. For example, it can be considered that the amount of solar radiation is divided into A or more and less than A (condition 1), and the temperature is divided into B or more and less than B.
  • the attribute may be a date or time. For example, grouping may be performed based on the month (for example, teacher data from July to September may be grouped), or the time (for example, teacher data from 11:00 to 14:00 may be grouped).
  • condition 1 “sunshine amount is A or higher”, condition 2 “temperature is B or higher”, condition 3 “July to September”
  • a group may be created by combining those satisfying the expression (for example, satisfying condition 1, condition 2, and condition 3).
  • the data analysis device 50 of the present embodiment can group the teacher data according to the attribute and generate an estimation formula for each group.
  • the estimation formula generated by such a data analysis device 50 the accuracy of the estimation is improved. As a result, it is possible to more effectively suppress the occurrence of inconveniences as described above.
  • the data analysis device 50 uses the estimation formula obtained in the sixth embodiment when a power failure occurs, and estimates the current consumption or power consumption of the entire interchange section before the power failure occurs. Different from the sixth embodiment. Hereinafter, differences from the sixth embodiment will be described.
  • FIG. 23 shows an example of a functional block diagram of the data analysis device 50 of the present embodiment.
  • the data analysis device 50 includes a data acquisition unit 51, a weather data acquisition unit 52, an estimation formula generation unit 54, an estimation formula storage unit 55, a power outage interchange section identification unit 56, and interchange section consumption. And an estimation unit 57.
  • the configurations of the data acquisition unit 51, the weather data acquisition unit 52, and the estimation formula generation unit 54 are the same as those in the sixth embodiment.
  • the configuration of the estimation formula storage unit 55 is the same as the configuration of the estimation formula storage unit 17 described in the second to fifth embodiments.
  • the configuration of the interchange section specifying unit 56 at the time of power failure is the same as the configuration of the interchange section identifying unit 21 at the time of power failure described in the third to fifth embodiments.
  • the interchange section consumption estimation unit 57 acquires, from the estimation formula storage unit 55, an estimation formula for each interchange section identified by the interchange section identifying unit 56 at the time of a power failure in response to detection of the occurrence of a power failure. Further, the interchange section consumption estimation unit 57 acquires weather data at the time of the occurrence of a power outage corresponding to the interchange section from the weather data acquisition unit 52. In addition, the interchange section consumption estimation unit 57 obtains, from the data acquisition unit 51, actual data of power or current supplied from the distribution station to each interchange section before the occurrence of a power failure. The details of these processes are as described above.
  • the interchange section consumption estimation part 57 estimates the electric power or electric current supplied to each section from a distribution station after a power failure restoration for every interchange section based on the acquired estimation formula, weather data, and performance data. Thereafter, the accommodation section consumption estimation unit 57 adds the estimated values calculated for each accommodation section, thereby estimating the power or current supplied from the distribution station to the entire accommodation section after the power failure is restored.
  • the interchange section when a power failure occurs, the interchange section can be specified, and the power or current supplied from the distribution station to the entire interchange section after the power failure can be accurately estimated.
  • the power supply route By changing the power supply route based on the value estimated in this way, it is possible to suppress the occurrence of inconvenience that the distribution station that supplies power to the accommodation section exceeds the supply capacity.
  • FIG. 24 shows an example of a functional block diagram of the data analysis apparatus 10 of the present embodiment.
  • the data analysis device 10 of the present embodiment includes a data acquisition unit 11, a private power generation result acquisition unit 12, a weather data acquisition unit 13, and a private power generation supply estimation unit 18.
  • the data acquisition unit 11 acquires, for each section, the distribution station performance that is the current or the actual power supplied from the distribution station in the section in which power is supplied from the distribution station and the private power generation device.
  • the private power generation record acquisition unit 12 subtracts the distribution station record before the occurrence of the power outage from the distribution station record after the recovery from the power outage at the time of the past power outage. Acquire private power generation results, which are the results of electric power.
  • the meteorological data acquisition unit 13 acquires meteorological data.
  • the private power generation estimation unit 18 estimates the private power generation performance based on the private power generation performance and weather data at the time of past power outages.
  • the configurations of the data acquisition unit 11, the private power generation result acquisition unit 12, and the weather data acquisition unit 13 are the same as those in the first to seventh embodiments.
  • the private power generation estimation unit 18 is configured to be able to acquire the estimation formula stored in the estimation formula storage unit 17, for example.
  • the estimation formula storage unit 17 may be provided in the data analysis device 10 or may be provided in an external device configured to be able to communicate with the data analysis device 10.
  • the details of estimating the in-house power generation performance based on the estimation formula stored in the estimation formula storage unit 17 and the weather data acquired by the weather data acquisition unit 13 are the same as those in the first to seventh embodiments.
  • data acquisition means for acquiring the distribution station performance for each section, which is the current or the actual power supplied from the distribution station; By subtracting the distribution station results before the occurrence of a power outage from the distribution station results after a power failure recovery in the event of a past power outage, the current or power that the private power generation device was supplying to the section before the power outage occurred
  • a private power generation result acquisition means for acquiring a private power generation result
  • Weather data acquisition means for acquiring weather data
  • a data analysis apparatus comprising a private power generation estimation unit that estimates the private power generation record based on the private power generation record and the weather data at each occurrence of a past power failure.
  • the data analysis device wherein the private power generation supply estimation unit groups the private power generation results and the weather data based on attributes, and performs the estimation based on the private power generation results and the weather data belonging to each group. .
  • An accommodation section specifying means for specifying an accommodation section that is one or a plurality of sections in which power cannot be supplied from the distribution station by separating the first section; The distribution station performance of the accommodation section after the restoration of the past power failure, and the estimated consumption value of the accommodation section obtained by adding the distribution station performance of the accommodation section before the occurrence of the power failure to the estimated value of the private power generation performance, 3.
  • the data analysis apparatus according to 1 or 2, further comprising correction information generation means for generating correction information for correcting the consumption predicted value based on the data. 4).
  • the private power generation estimation means estimates the current or power supplied to the section from the private power generation device before the occurrence of the blackout in response to detection of the occurrence of a blackout, In response to detection of the occurrence of a power outage, a distribution station supply estimation means for estimating the current or power supplied to the section from the distribution station where the power outage occurred before the occurrence of the power outage, By adding the current or power supplied to the section from the private power generator and the current or power supplied from the distribution station to the section before the power outage occurs, the section before the power outage occurs.
  • Section consumption estimation means for estimating current consumption or power consumption of The data analysis device according to any one of 1 to 3, further comprising: 5.
  • the distribution station supply estimation means includes a total current or total power supplied by the distribution station that has failed before the occurrence of the power failure, and a plurality of sections that have received power supply from the distribution station that has failed before the occurrence of the power failure. Based on the received power set value in each and the current or power that the private power generation device supplied to each section before the occurrence of the power outage, the current or power that was supplied to each section from the distribution station that had a power outage 5.
  • the data analysis apparatus according to 4, wherein 6).
  • a power outage that identifies the section to be separated in accordance with detection of the occurrence of a power outage and identifies an interchange section that is one or a plurality of sections that supply power from the distribution station different from that before the occurrence of the power outage by separating the section.
  • Time interchange section identification means; 1 having an interchange section consumption estimation means for estimating the sum of the consumption current or power consumption before the occurrence of the power outage in the accommodation section by adding together the consumption current or power consumption before the occurrence of the power outage in each of the accommodation sections.
  • the data analysis device subordinate to 3, comprising correction means for correcting the total current consumption or power consumption before the occurrence of the power outage in the interchange section based on the correction information generated by the correction information generation means. 8).
  • a private power generator connected to a private power generation device that is disconnected in the event of a power outage that is a part of the power network to which power is supplied from the power distribution station and that stops power supply from the power distribution station to the private power generation device.
  • Data acquisition means for acquiring power distribution record data for each section indicating a power distribution result that is a result of current or power supplied from the power distribution station in the section to which power is supplied,
  • Weather data acquisition means for acquiring weather data; Based on the results of supplying power to the section from the power distribution station before the occurrence of a power outage at the time of each past power outage, the weather data, and the results of supplying power to the section from the power distribution station after power failure recovery
  • an estimation formula for estimating the power or current to be supplied to each section from the distribution station after the power failure recovery is generated from the actual results and the weather data that were supplied to the section from the distribution station before the power failure occurred
  • Estimating formula generating means for A data analysis apparatus 9.
  • a data acquisition step of acquiring the distribution station performance which is the current or power history supplied from the distribution station, for each section; By subtracting the distribution station results before the occurrence of a power outage from the distribution station results after a power failure recovery in the event of a past power outage, the current or power that the private power generation device was supplying to the section before the power outage occurred
  • An in-house power generation result acquisition process for acquiring an in-house power generation result A weather data acquisition process for acquiring weather data; and An estimation step for estimating the private power generation performance based on the private power generation performance and the weather data at each occurrence of a past power outage; Data analysis method to execute. 9-2. 10.
  • the data analysis method wherein in the private power generation estimation step, the private power generation results and the weather data are grouped based on attributes, and the estimation is performed based on the private power generation results and the weather data belonging to each group. . 9-3.
  • the computer is An accommodation section identifying step for identifying an accommodation section that is one or a plurality of sections in which power cannot be supplied from the distribution station due to separation of the first section; The distribution station performance of the accommodation section after the restoration of the past power failure, and the estimated consumption value of the accommodation section obtained by adding the distribution station performance of the accommodation section before the occurrence of the power failure to the estimated value of the private power generation performance, A correction information generating step for generating correction information for correcting the consumption predicted value based on The data analysis method according to 9 or 9-2, wherein the method is further executed.
  • the private power supply estimation step in response to detection of the occurrence of a power failure, the current or power supplied to the section from the private power generation device before the power failure occurs is estimated,
  • the computer is In response to detection of the occurrence of a power outage, a distribution station supply estimation step for estimating the current or power supplied to the section from the power distribution station where the power outage occurred before the occurrence of the power outage, By adding the current or power supplied to the section from the private power generator and the current or power supplied from the distribution station to the section before the power outage occurs, the section before the power outage occurs.
  • Section consumption estimation process for estimating current consumption or power consumption of The data analysis method according to any one of 9 to 9-3, further executing: 9-5.
  • the total current or total power supplied by the power distribution station before the occurrence of the power outage, and a plurality of sections receiving power supply from the power distribution station before the power outage occurred Based on the received power set value in each and the current or power that the private power generation device supplied to each section before the occurrence of the power outage, the current or power that was supplied to each section from the distribution station that had a power outage.
  • the computer is A power outage that identifies the section to be separated in accordance with detection of the occurrence of a power outage and identifies an interchange section that is one or a plurality of sections that supply power from the distribution station different from that before the occurrence of the power outage by separating the section.
  • Time interchange section identification process By adding together the consumption current or power consumption before the occurrence of the power outage in each of the accommodation sections, an accommodation section consumption estimation step for estimating the total consumption current or power consumption before the occurrence of the power outage in the accommodation section;
  • the data analysis method according to any one of 9 to 9-5, further executing: 9-7.
  • the computer is further dependent on 9-3, further executing a correction step of correcting the total current consumption or power consumption before the occurrence of the power failure in the interchange section based on the correction information generated in the correction information generation step.
  • data acquisition means for acquiring the distribution station performance for each section, which is a record of current or power supplied from the distribution station, By subtracting the distribution station results before the occurrence of a power outage from the distribution station results after a power failure recovery in the event of a past power outage, the current or power that the private power generation device was supplying to the section before the power outage occurred
  • In-house power generation result acquisition means for acquiring a certain in-house power generation result
  • Weather data acquisition means for acquiring weather data; Estimating means for estimating the in-house power generation performance based on the in-house power generation performance and the weather data at each occurrence of a past power outage, Program to function as. 10-2.
  • the computer An accommodation section specifying means for specifying an accommodation section that is one or a plurality of sections where power cannot be supplied from the distribution station by separating the first section, The distribution station performance of the accommodation section after the restoration of the past power failure, and the estimated consumption value of the accommodation section obtained by adding the distribution station performance of the accommodation section before the occurrence of the power failure to the estimated value of the private power generation performance, Correction information generating means for generating correction information for correcting the consumption predicted value based on The program according to 10 or 10-2, which further functions as: 10-4.
  • the in-house power generation estimation means estimates the current or power supplied to the section from the in-house power generation device before the outage occurs,
  • the computer, Distribution station supply estimation means for estimating the current or power supplied to the section from the distribution station that had a power failure before the occurrence of the power failure, By adding the current or power supplied to the section from the private power generator and the current or power supplied from the distribution station to the section before the power outage occurs, the section before the power outage occurs.
  • Section consumption estimation means for estimating current consumption or power consumption of As described in any one of 10 to 10-3. 10-5.
  • the distribution station supply estimation means the total current or total power supplied by the distribution station that had a power outage before the occurrence of the power outage, and a plurality of sections that received power supply from the distribution station that had a power outage before the occurrence of the power outage Based on the received power set value in each and the current or power that the private power generation device supplied to each section before the occurrence of the power outage, the current or power that was supplied to each section from the distribution station that had a power outage.
  • Accommodating section that is one or a plurality of sections that identify the section to be separated in response to detection of the occurrence of a power failure and supply power from the distribution station different from that before the occurrence of the power failure by separating the section.
  • Means for identifying the interchange section during a power failure The interchange section consumption estimation means for estimating the sum of the consumption current or power consumption before the occurrence of the power outage in the accommodation section by adding the consumption current or power consumption before the occurrence of the power outage in each of the accommodation sections,
  • the program according to any one of 10 to 10-5, which further functions as: 10-7.
  • 10 is dependent on 10-3, which causes the computer to function as a correction unit that corrects the total current consumption or power consumption before the occurrence of the power failure in the interchange section based on the correction information generated by the correction information generation unit.
  • the program described in -6. 11 Computer A private power generator connected to a private power generation device that is disconnected in the event of a power outage that is a part of the power network to which power is supplied from the power distribution station and that stops power supply from the power distribution station to the private power generation device.
  • an estimation formula for estimating the power or current to be supplied to each section from the distribution station after the power failure recovery is generated from the actual results and the weather data that were supplied to the section from the distribution station before the power failure occurred
  • a private power generator connected to a private power generation device that is disconnected in the event of a power outage that is a part of the power network to which power is supplied from the power distribution station and that stops power supply from the power distribution station to the private power generation device.
  • a data acquisition means for acquiring power distribution record data for each section indicating a power distribution result that is a result of current or power supplied from the power distribution station in the section to which power is supplied;
  • Weather data acquisition means for acquiring weather data; Based on the results of supplying power to the section from the power distribution station before the occurrence of a power outage at the time of each past power outage, the weather data, and the results of supplying power to the section from the power distribution station after power failure recovery
  • an estimation formula for estimating the power or current to be supplied to each section from the distribution station after the power failure recovery is generated from the actual results and the weather data that were supplied to the section from the distribution station before the power failure occurred
  • a private power generator connected to a private power generation device that is disconnected in the event of a power outage that is a part of the power network to which power is supplied from the power distribution station and that stops power supply from the power distribution station to the private power generation device.
  • Data acquisition means for acquiring power distribution record data for each section indicating a power distribution result that is a result of current or power supplied from the power distribution station in the section to which power is supplied, Based on the past distribution station performance data for each section, by subtracting the distribution station performance before the occurrence of a power outage from the distribution station performance after a power outage recovery at the time of a past power outage,
  • a private power generation result acquisition means for acquiring a self power generation result that is a result of current or power supplied to the section;
  • Weather data acquisition means for acquiring weather data;
  • An estimation formula generating means for generating an estimation formula for estimating the private power generation performance from the weather data by machine learning using the private power generation performance and the weather data as teacher data at each past power outage occurrence;
  • the estimation formula generation means groups the teacher data based on the attribute of the teacher data, and generates a data for the estimation formula for each group based on the teacher data belonging to each group. 13-3.
  • a plurality of the distribution stations are installed in the power network, Each of the distribution stations is configured to distribute power to a plurality of the sections connected in series with each other, and further, when a power failure occurs, only the section having a problem is disconnected and power supply to the other sections is resumed.
  • An interchange section identifying means for identifying an interchange section that is, Estimating the power generation results calculated based on the power distribution results of the interchanged section after the power failure recovery indicated by the past power distribution results data for each section, the weather data and the estimation formula at the time of the power failure occurrence
  • the predicted consumption value is corrected based on the predicted consumption value of the interchange section obtained by adding the distribution station performance of the interchange section before the occurrence of the power outage indicated by the past distribution station performance data for each section to the value.
  • a data analysis apparatus further comprising correction information generation means for generating correction information for the purpose. 13-4.
  • private power supply estimation means for estimating the current or power supplied to the section from the private power generation device before the power failure occurred
  • a distribution station supply estimation means for estimating the current or power supplied to the section from the distribution station where the power outage occurred before the occurrence of the power outage
  • Current or power supplied to the section from the private power generation apparatus estimated by the private power generation supply estimation means and supplied from the distribution station to the section before the power outage estimated by the distribution station supply estimation means
  • Section consumption estimation means for estimating the current consumption or power consumption of the section before the occurrence of the power outage, A data analysis apparatus.
  • a plurality of the distribution stations are installed in the power network, Each of the distribution stations is configured to distribute power to a plurality of the sections connected in series with each other, and further, when a power failure occurs, only the section having a problem is disconnected and power supply to the other sections is resumed.
  • the section to be separated is identified, and an interchange section that is one or a plurality of sections that must be supplied with power from the distribution station different from that before the occurrence of the power outage by separating the section.
  • Means for identifying the interchange section during power failure An accommodation section that estimates the total current consumption or power consumption before the occurrence of the power outage in the accommodation section by adding together the consumption current or power consumption before the occurrence of the power outage in each of the accommodation sections estimated by the section consumption estimation means.
  • Consumption estimation means A data analysis apparatus further comprising: 13-6.
  • Data analysis further comprising correction means for correcting the total current consumption or power consumption before the occurrence of the power outage in the accommodation section estimated by the accommodation section consumption estimation means based on the correction information generated by the correction information generation means apparatus. 13-7.
  • a private power generator connected to a private power generation device that is disconnected in the event of a power outage that is a part of the power network to which power is supplied from the power distribution station and that stops power supply from the power distribution station to the private power generation device.
  • Data acquisition means for acquiring power distribution record data for each section indicating a power distribution result that is a result of current or power supplied from the power distribution station in the section to which power is supplied,
  • Weather data acquisition means for acquiring weather data; Teachers who have been supplied to the section from the power distribution station before the occurrence of a power outage at the time of a past power outage, the weather data, and the results that have been supplied from the power distribution station to the section after a power failure recovery
  • An estimation formula for estimating the power or current to be supplied to each section from the power distribution station after restoration from a power failure from the actual data and the meteorological data that were supplied to the section from the power distribution station before the occurrence of a power failure by machine learning as data
  • An estimation expression generating means for generating A data
  • a data acquisition means for acquiring power distribution record data for each section indicating a power distribution result that is a result of current or power supplied from the power distribution station in the section to which power is supplied; Based on the past distribution station performance data for each section, by subtracting the distribution station performance before the occurrence of a power outage from the distribution station performance after a power outage recovery at the time of a past power outage, In-house power generation result acquisition means for acquiring in-house power generation results that are the results of current or power supplied to the section; Weather data acquisition means for acquiring weather data; An estimation formula generating means for generating an estimation formula for estimating the private power generation performance from the weather data by machine learning using the private power generation performance and the weather data as teacher data at each past power outage occurrence, Program to function as.
  • a data acquisition means for acquiring power distribution record data for each section indicating a power distribution result that is a result of current or power supplied from the power distribution station in the section to which power is supplied;
  • Weather data acquisition means for acquiring weather data; Teachers who have been supplied to the section from the power distribution station before the occurrence of a power outage at the time of a past power outage, the weather data, and the results that have been supplied from the power distribution station to the section after a power failure recovery
  • An estimation formula for estimating the power or current to be supplied to each section from the power distribution station after restoration from a power failure from the actual data and the meteorological data that were supplied to the section from the power distribution station before the occurrence of a power failure by machine learning as data
  • An estimation expression generating means for generating Program to function as.

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Abstract

Un dispositif d'analyse de données (10) est doté : d'une unité d'acquisition de données (11) permettant, dans des zones alimentées par une sous-station électrique et un dispositif de production d'énergie domestique, d'acquérir, pour chacune des zones, le résultat de la sous-station électrique de courant ou d'énergie réellement fourni à partir de la sous-station électrique ; d'une unité d'acquisition de résultat de production d'énergie domestique (12) permettant, en cas de coupure de courant antérieure, de soustraire le résultat de la sous-station électrique obtenu avant la survenue de la coupure de courant du résultat de la sous-station électrique obtenu après restauration suite à la coupure de courant, ce qui permet d'acquérir le résultat de production d'énergie domestique de courant ou d'énergie qui a été réellement fourni à une zone par le dispositif de production d'énergie domestique avant la survenue de la coupure de courant ; d'une unité d'acquisition de données météorologiques (13) permettant d'acquérir des données météorologiques ; et d'une unité d'estimation d'alimentation de production d'énergie domestique (18) permettant d'estimer le résultat de production d'énergie domestique sur la base du résultat de production d'énergie domestique obtenu lors de la survenue de chacune des coupures de courant antérieures et des données météorologiques.
PCT/JP2015/084538 2015-03-25 2015-12-09 Dispositif d'analyse de données, procédé d'analyse de données, et programme WO2016151960A1 (fr)

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