WO2012141618A2

WO2012141618A2 - Method for predicting earthquakes

Info

Publication number: WO2012141618A2
Application number: PCT/RU2012/000287
Authority: WO
Inventors: Леонид Николаевич СОЛОДИЛОВ
Original assignee: Solodilov Leonid Nikolaevich
Priority date: 2011-04-15
Filing date: 2012-04-16
Publication date: 2012-10-18
Also published as: WO2012141618A3; RU2011114595A; RU2506612C2

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of seismology and is intended for use in the prediction of earthquakes. The essence of the invention is that surveys for the prediction of earthquakes are carried out on the grounds of a measuring site, for example an urban agglomeration or an important economic entity, the magnitude (M) and time (t) of an earthquake being determined with the aid of known monitoring observations using apparatus situated inside the boundaries of the grounds of the measuring site. The monitoring observations are carried out on the measuring site by a network of seismological apparatus consisting of a minimum of 4, preferably 10-14, three-component seismic vibration detectors situated at set distances from one another inside the boundaries of the measuring site, as well as by apparatus for monitoring changes in the water level in a single groundwater well, wherein the water level in the groundwater well must react to lunar-solar tides. The magnitude of a future earthquake is established on the basis of seismic data sets from a source of seismic waves, namely distant earthquakes (at distances greater than 2°), and on the basis of the reaction of the aquifer in the groundwater well to the effect of the lunar-solar tides, the time window of a medium-term prediction is established, as well as the start of a short-term prediction, and the onset time of the earthquake is determined. Using a known method, the magnitude of a future earthquake is established on the basis of a change in the integral characteristics of the stress state of the geological medium underneath the measuring site according to data from the seismological apparatus and a graduated scale which is established experimentally on the basis of the monitoring results of the seismological apparatus. The start time of the time window of a medium-term earthquake prediction is determined according to the time (t₁) at which the aquifer begins to stop reacting to the effect of the lunar-solar tide, judged on the basis of an absence of change in the water level in the groundwater well; the start time of a short-term earthquake prediction (t₂) is established on the basis of the time at which the aquifer begins to react once more to the effect of the lunar-solar tide on the change in the water level in the groundwater well, judged on the basis of a change in the level. The onset time of an earthquake (t₀) relative to t₁ is determined according to the relationship t₀ = { [(t₂ - t₁) +1] + (1 +/- 1)}, where the times t₀, t₁ and t₂ are determined in days. The technical result is that the magnitude and time of an earthquake are determined with an accuracy of (+/-) 1 day with respect to the grounds of a measuring site, for example an urban agglomeration or an important economic entity, by means of monitoring observations made inside the boundaries of the chosen measuring site grounds.

Description

Earthquake prediction method.

FIELD OF THE INVENTION

The invention relates to geophysics and seismology and is intended to study the geodynamic processes of the geological environment and earthquake prediction.

Description of the invention.

The level of technology.

Currently, there are only a few cases of successful earthquake prediction, when three heterogeneous parameters are simultaneously predicted: time (t), place (x, y) and magnitude (M). Since there is no technology for earthquake prediction when three parameters are simultaneously predicted: time (t), place (x, y) and magnitude (M), it is necessary to consider the solution to a simpler problem - to predict two parameters.

A known method of earthquake prediction, adopted as a prototype, is based on the determination of two of the three main parameters of an earthquake, t- time, (x, y) - coordinates of the hypocenter, M- magnitude, which means that for each (x, y) - coordinates Territories determine the maximum M-magnitude of a possible earthquake [1]. It is believed that an earthquake with a magnitude M will occur once at a fixed time t equal to 1000, 500 or 100 years.

Research into the development of the prototype method [1] is an independent scientific field, called seismic zoning or a long-term earthquake forecast. In a number of

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SUBSTITUTE SHEET (RULE 26) of states, including Russia, seismic zoning maps are prescriptive and serve as a mandatory basis for earthquake-resistant construction in earthquake-prone areas.

Since not all residential buildings and other urban facilities in seismically active areas have been built taking into account earthquake-resistant construction, and not all earthquake-resistant houses can withstand the effects of seismic disaster, at present, at least a forecast of the time of a destructive earthquake is needed to save people and prevent possible additional material losses due to the exclusion of secondary damage factors from earthquakes: fires, domestic gas explosions, etc.

Disclosure of the invention.

A comparative analysis of the features of the claimed and well-known solutions indicates its compliance with the criterion of "novelty."

The problem solved by the claimed method is to determine the strength and time of the earthquake for a given territory by known monitoring observations at a measuring range, equipment placed within a given territory of the measuring range.

The solution of this problem is ensured by the fact that in the method of earthquake prediction, based on the determination of two of the three main parameters of the earthquake, t- time, (x, y) - coordinates of the hypocenter, M-magnitude, for the selected territory of the measuring range, for example, for the territory of urban agglomeration or an important economic object, determine the M-magnitude and t-time of the earthquake by known monitoring observations with equipment located within the territory of the measuring range; monitoring observations at the measuring ground are carried out by a network of seismological equipment from at least 4, more preferably 10-14, three-component seismic wave recorders located at specified distances from each other within the measuring ground and simultaneously with equipment for monitoring the change in water level in one hydrogeological well, moreover the water level in the hydrogeological well should respond to lunar-solar tides, and according to seismic records from the source of seismic waves - d of magnitude earthquakes (at distances greater than 2 °) establish the magnitude of a future earthquake, and according to the reaction of an aquifer in a hydrogeological well to the influence of lunar-solar tides, a temporary window for a medium-term forecast, the beginning of a short-term forecast, and determine the time of occurrence of earthquakes are determined; the time of the start of the time window of the medium-term earthquake forecast is determined by the time t the beginning of the termination of the reaction of the aquifer to the influence of

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SUBSTITUTE SHEET (RULE 26) solar tides, which is judged by the absence of a change in the water level in the hydrogeological well, and the start time of the short-term forecast of the earthquake Xg is determined based on the time of the resumption of the reaction of the aquifer to the influence of lunar-solar tides on the change in water level in a hydrogeological well, as judged by the change the water level in a hydrogeological well, and the moment of the earthquake to is determined by the dependence to- {[(t ₂ - t +1] + (1 +/- 1)}, where the time to, ti and t _{2 are} determined in days.

EFFECT: determination of the magnitude and time of the earthquake with an accuracy of (+/-) 1 day for the territory of the measuring range, for example, for the territory of an urban agglomeration or an important economic facility, by monitoring observations within the selected territory of the measuring range.

A brief description of the drawings.

The invention is illustrated by drawings, where

figure 1 - seismic recording (seismogram),

figure 2 -summation (accumulation) of a piece of data, a geological section along the selected profile,

Fig.3 is a forecast of seismic activity in the form of a deep section along the selected profile,

4 is a forecast of seismic activity in the form of a map on a measuring range,

5 is an example of a record in a hydrogeological well of a change in water level.

The implementation of the invention.

The newly introduced operations, forming a set of essential features, ensure the achievement of such quality properties as:

- the ability to determine the magnitude M, based on the records of changes in the water level in one hydrogeological well within the territory of the measuring landfill, on the basis of the existing complex of technical means of continuous observations on the earth’s surface for the selected area of the measuring range, for example, for the territory of an urban agglomeration or an important economic facility; earthquake time t with accuracy (+/- 1) day;

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SUBSTITUTE SHEET (RULE 26) - high efficiency of receiving and processing monitoring information;

- there is no need to determine the location of a future earthquake.

The invention consists in the following. At a test site measuring at least 60x60 km ² , at least 4, preferably 10-14, three-component seismic oscillation recorders are placed and continuous seismic recordings are made.

When presenting the essence of the proposed invention, seismic records processed according to the technology in accordance with the patent were used (Vasiliev SV., Solodilov LN, Korobov V.E. Method for assessing changes in the stress state of the geological environment. RF patent application 2009124808 from 06.30.2009 ., issued on March 31, 2011 with a priority of June 30, 2009) [2]. The new data processing system is named as information-structural technology for processing seismic data, in short, ISTOD is a technology, and it proceeds from the fact that information is systemic in nature and it manifests itself only in interaction. Seismology, as well as seismic exploration, is based on the interaction of an external energy (seismic) impulse and a geological environment. In this case, the object of study is an open nonequilibrium and nonlinear system. This means that the wave seismic process consists not only of elastic deformation. Part of the energy of the seismic pulse is dissipated (dissipated) in the geological environment with the transition to thermal energy. This is a thermodynamic branch of the seismic process. As this part of the energy moves away from the stable state, self-organization structures evolving in time arise, which carry information about the level of the stress state and its organization in space.

Since we are dealing with deformation in the wave process, we can use the physicomechanical properties of the rocks, whose change in time occurs under the influence of a varying voltage, as control parameters when studying the patterns of seismic energy distribution.

The source of information in our case is the geological environment with its viscoelastic and dissipative-dispersed properties. The role of the information carrier is played by the exchange seismic wave, in which information on the changing stress state is encoded through a change in the physical and mechanical properties of the geological environment. The carrier of information is always structure. Therefore, the information process consists in transferring the structure of the cause (changing the stress state of the geological environment) to the structure of the investigation (seismic field). The task is to detect such structures.

The founder of the theory of dissipative structures and basic

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SUBSTITUTE SHEET (RULE 26) principles of nonequilibrium thermodynamics is Nobel Prize laureate I. Prigogy [3-5]. The main parameter for describing the process of self-organization is entropy. A.N. Kolmogorov [6] for the first time (1976) introduced the concept of entropy of a single event, which allows us to consider a sequence of qualitatively different states of the system as a program for removing uncertainty (algorithmic definition of information). Dissipative structures are self-organization of energy with a sharp decrease in entropy in the system when it moves away from the equilibrium state [3-5].

Processing of seismic data is as follows. On the seismic records for subsequent processing, exchange waves are distinguished (Fig. 1) from distant earthquakes (from distances greater than 2 °). Since seismic signals from distant earthquakes arrive at the measuring ground almost vertically from below, it can be assumed that all the exchange waves recorded in the Χ, плоскости plane arise directly below the seismic receiver and, therefore, carry information about the state of the geological environment under the measuring ground. At the beginning of processing on the component ζ of each seismic record from one earthquake, the time of the first arrival of the longitudinal wave is recorded (Fig. 1). Next, select the time interval of the seismic record, for example 4 seconds, calculate the energy of the converted waves from the x and y components and carry out its summation (accumulation) for all recorded seismic records from this earthquake.

In FIG. Figure 2 shows the result of summing the energy of the converted waves from the group (portion) of earthquakes, where the static (geological section) and dynamic (stress state) parts are summarized.

Then, the summation of the energy of the converted waves from subsequent earthquakes to the appearance of stable amplitude-spatial inhomogeneities in the distribution of the energy of the converted waves (Fig. 3), which by definition are elements of the structure of the seismic field, reflecting information about the geological structure (geological section) of the area under the measuring ground, is continued. , and that serves to determine the quasistable background voltage level.

And, further, as a result of monitoring observations, a time series of similar structures is obtained in the distribution of energy of the converted waves. By the magnitude of the deviation of the obtained structures from the level of background values, a change in the stress state of the geological environment is judged for the times of receipt of each structure in the energy distribution of the converted waves. By the value of the relative stability of fluctuations in the distribution of energy of the converted waves - the target useful signal, in turn, they judge the relative danger of changes in the

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SUBSTITUTE SHEET (RULE 26) the state of the geological environment under the territory of the measuring range.

The target useful signal is presented in the form of a section (Fig. 4) in coordinates (x, t), where x is the distance between the geophones at the measuring ground, and t is the time of seismic recording, and over the area (Fig. 5) in coordinates (x, s), moreover, in the context (Fig. 4) and in area (Fig. 5), the target useful signal is expressed in a color scheme that visually reflects the danger of a future earthquake.

The color scale serves as a calibration scale for determining the magnitude of earthquakes within the measuring range. In this scale, the energy of the exchange waves corresponding to the background level is taken as unity, and the next and each subsequent color corresponds to a 3-fold increase in the energy of the converted waves. If the epicenter of a future earthquake with the maximum possible magnitude for this region is located in the central part of the measuring range, then you can get the maximum possible relative estimate of the energy of the converted waves (and color) for the calibration scale.

Within the territory of the Kavminvodsky measuring range, earthquakes with magnitudes within M = (1-2.5) were observed. The orange and green colors correspond to them on the calibration scale. Since these earthquakes, as well as those recorded near the landfill, are not dangerous for structures and people's lives, the orange, green, and even more red color on the records of the target useful signal are not the color of trouble. Despite the fact that the scale in full is not experimentally calibrated, the subsequent colors of the scale - blue, blue and purple of the recorded target useful signal, respectively, will characterize the alarm and danger to people's lives and the safety of structures within the territory of the measuring range. Thus, in the proposed method for predicting an earthquake, they monitor the reaction of the medium within the measuring range and, depending on the recorded value of the intensity of the stress state (in the calibration scale described above), they judge the intensity — magnitude of the predicted earthquake.

With the prediction of the time of the future destructive earthquake, the situation is more complicated: even having dependencies for determining the earthquake time for the observed magnitudes M = (1-2.5), it is difficult to transfer these dependencies to the prediction of times for destructive earthquakes. The available experimental data on determining the earthquake time for the observed magnitudes M = (1–2.5) indicate that the error in predicting the time of earthquakes is 3 or more days.

In order to reduce the error in predicting the time of an earthquake, within the territory of the measuring range simultaneously with

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SUBSTITUTE SHEET (RULE 26) By placing seismological equipment, one hydrogeological well is drilled within the territory of the measuring range and a set of equipment is placed in it for monitoring the change in the water level and continuous recording of the change in the water level is carried out. A hydrogeological well is selected in accordance with the invention (Vartanyan G.S., Popov E.A., Voleisho V.O. “Method for assessing the suitability of a hydrogeological and geophysical observation object for studying geodynamic processes.” RF Patent JV ° 13033957 dated 04/23/1984 .) [7], according to which it should respond to lunar-solar tides.

An example of recording in a hydrogeological well a change in the water level is shown in FIG. 6 [8], where the water level is shown along the y axis, and time-t is shown along the x-axis. At the beginning of the recording, a twofold sinusoidal change in the water level is visible per day, which is characteristic of the influence of the lunar-solar tide. Before an earthquake, starting from time ti to time t ₂ , the response of the aquifer to changes from the lunar-solar tide ceases. According to experimental data, the time (t ₂ - ti) is (5-7) days. The time ti can serve as the basis for declaring a medium-term, and the time t ₂ - a short-term earthquake forecast. From the moment t _{2 of the} resumption of the influence of lunar-solar tides on the change in the water level in a hydrogeological well before the earthquake, 1-3 days occur, which allows us to establish the experimental dependence of the moment of the earthquake to with respect to κ ί ₂ in the form to = [(t ₂ +1) + (1 +/- 1)], where the time to _, ti ^ is determined in days.

Thus, in accordance with the invention, according to the results of seismological and hydrodynamic monitoring by equipment located in the territory of the measuring range, the intensity is determined in relation to its territory - magnitude and time of a future earthquake with an accuracy of (+/-) 1 day.

We also note that, in accordance with experimental data [8], after the cessation of changes in the water level in a hydrogeological well, an earthquake occurs no earlier than 7-10 days, which determines the time window of the medium-term forecast. Therefore, the proposed method, along with recording changes in the seismic mode, allows you to issue a medium-term forecast (up to 7-10 days) about the level of seismic hazard in the area of the measuring range and its immediate vicinity with the issuance of an earthquake hazard forecast, i.e. each time after processing the data of monitoring observations, it allows you to answer the question whether or not there will be an earthquake in the area of the measuring range in

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DEPUTY YUSHCHI YL YST (P EQUAL 26) in the coming (7-10) days, moreover, what is especially important, only with equipment in the territory of the measuring range.

The results obtained make it possible to propose using the present invention the creation of seismic-geodynamic safety services for urban agglomerations and at important sites, by analogy, for example, with the fire safety service and other security services at these sites.

Information sources.

1. Sobolev G. A. - otv. Seismic Hazard Editor. M, publishing house of the switchgear ", 2000, p.66 - 96

2. Vasilyev SV., Solodilov L.N., Korobov V.E. A method for assessing changes in the stress state of the geological environment. Application for a patent of the Russian Federation JY "2009124808 from 06.30.2009

3. Nikolis G., Prigogy N. Self-organization in nonequilibrium systems. M .: Mir, 1979, 512 p.

4. Prigogy N. From the existing to the arising. M .: Nauka, 1985, 280s.

5. Prigogy N. The end of certainty. Time, chaos and new laws of nature. M: 2000, 207s.

6. Kolmogorov A.N. To the logical foundations of information theory and probability theory. Problems of information transfer, 5.3, p. 3-7, 1969.

7. Vartanyan G.S., Popov E.A., Voleisho V.O. "A method for assessing the suitability of a hydrogeological and geophysical observation object for studying geodynamic processes." RF patent 13033957 from 04/23/1984

8. Voitov G.I., Popov E.A. Geochemical forecast of earthquakes. Journal of Nature, 1989, JY212. S.60-64.

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SUBSTITUTE SHEET (RULE 26)

Claims

Claim.

1. The method of earthquake prediction, based on the determination of two of the three main parameters of the earthquake, t is the time, (x, y) is the coordinates of the hypocenter, M is the magnitude, characterized in that for the territory of the measuring range, for example, urban agglomeration or an important economic object, determine M is the magnitude and t is the time of the earthquake by known monitoring observations with equipment located within the territory of the measuring range.

2. The method of earthquake prediction according to claim 1, characterized in that the monitoring observations at the measuring ground are carried out by a network of seismological equipment from at least 4, more preferably 10-14, three-component seismic oscillation recorders placed from each other at predetermined distances within the measuring range and at the same time with equipment for monitoring the change in the water level in one hydrogeological well, and the water level in the hydrogeological well must respond to lunar-solar tides, and according to seismic records from the source of seismic waves - distant earthquakes (at distances greater than 2 °), the magnitude of the future earthquake is established, and according to the reaction of the aquifer in the hydrogeological well, the time window of the medium-term forecast, the beginning of the short-term forecast, and the time of occurrence are determined earthquakes.

3. The method of forecasting earthquakes in p.p. 1-2, characterized in that the magnitude of the future earthquake is determined in a known manner by changing the integral characteristics of the stress state of the geological environment under the territory of the measuring ground according to the records of seismological equipment and the calibration scale established experimentally by the results of monitoring by seismological equipment, and the start time of the time window of the medium-term earthquake forecast determined by the time ti- beginning of the termination of the reaction of the aquifer to the influence of the lunar Nogo tide, what is judged by the absence of changes in the water level in water wells, and the start time of the short-term prediction of the earthquake t ₂ is set, starting from the resumption of the aquifer to effect reaction lunar-solar tidal change in the water level in water wells, what is judged by a change in the water level in a hydrogeological well, while the moment of the earthquake to relative to ti is determined by the dependence

to = {[(t ₂ - ti) +1] + (1 +/- 1)},

where time t ₀ , ti and t _{2 are} determined in days.

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SUBSTITUTE SHEET (RULE 26)