WO2005031390A1 - Systemes de prevision des seismes et leurs procedes d'utilisation - Google Patents

Systemes de prevision des seismes et leurs procedes d'utilisation Download PDF

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Publication number
WO2005031390A1
WO2005031390A1 PCT/US2003/026761 US0326761W WO2005031390A1 WO 2005031390 A1 WO2005031390 A1 WO 2005031390A1 US 0326761 W US0326761 W US 0326761W WO 2005031390 A1 WO2005031390 A1 WO 2005031390A1
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WO
WIPO (PCT)
Prior art keywords
seismometers
wave movements
time
earth
digital data
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Application number
PCT/US2003/026761
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English (en)
Inventor
J. Theodore Cherry
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Science Horizons, Inc.
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Publication date
Application filed by Science Horizons, Inc. filed Critical Science Horizons, Inc.
Priority to PCT/US2003/026761 priority Critical patent/WO2005031390A1/fr
Priority to AU2003262892A priority patent/AU2003262892A1/en
Publication of WO2005031390A1 publication Critical patent/WO2005031390A1/fr

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Classifications

    • G—PHYSICS
    • G01—MEASURING; TESTING
    • G01V—GEOPHYSICS; GRAVITATIONAL MEASUREMENTS; DETECTING MASSES OR OBJECTS; TAGS
    • G01V1/00—Seismology; Seismic or acoustic prospecting or detecting
    • G01V1/01—Measuring or predicting earthquakes

Definitions

  • the invention relates generally to systems for predicting earthquakes and methods of employing such earthquake prediction systems.
  • the invention is directed towards earthquake prediction systems which detect wave movements resulting from dilation of the crust of the Earth, and methods of employing such earthquake prediction systems.
  • Earthquakes may cause significant property damage, personal injury, and in some instances, even death.
  • geologists and seismologists have been unable to predict the approximate location or the approximate magnitude of such earthquakes with sufficient accuracy.
  • Geologists and seismologists also have been unable to predict the approximate time at which such earthquakes may occur with sufficient accuracy.
  • earthquakes generally are unexpected events.
  • tremors may last for a few minutes, the majority of property damage and personal injury may occur within the first ten to twenty seconds following arrival of the first tremor of the earthquake. Consequently, various earthquake detection systems have been developed, such that people may recognize when an earthquake is occurring and may move to a safer location when appropriate. Nevertheless, although such earthquake detection systems may detect earthquakes, such systems are not designed to predict earthquakes.
  • Some known earthquake prediction systems may detect gravitational field turbulence or low frequency radio signals in communication with future earthquakes. However, these earthquake prediction systems only may detect such gravitational field turbulence or low frequency radio signals about twenty seconds prior to an arrival of the first tremor of the earthquake.
  • a technical advantage of the present invention is that wave movements resulting from dilation of the crust of the Earth, which occurs prior to an earthquake, may be detected.
  • the system may determine the velocity of the waves, the amplitude of the waves, and the direction of wave movements. Based on the number of wave movements, e., the frequency of wave movements, detected over a predetermined period of time, the system may be used to determine the likelihood of a future earthquake.
  • the system may be used to determine that an earthquake is likely to occur between about eight hours and about twenty-four hours prior to an arrival of a first tremor of the earthquake. Moreover, based on the velocity and the amplitude of the waves, the system may be used to determine the approximate magnitude of the future earthquake. Similarly, based on the direction of wave movements, the system also may be used to determine the approximate location of the future earthquake.
  • a method of predicting earthquakes comprises the step of positioning a first transducer array adjacent to a seismically active region and at least about 3 meters below the surface of the crust of the Earth.
  • the first transducer array comprises a first plurality of seismometers, at least one first clock, and at least one first digitizer.
  • the at least one first clock is in communication with at least one of the first plurality of seismometers, and the at least one first digitizer also is in communication with at least one of the first plurality of seismometers.
  • the method also comprises the steps of detecting a plurality of wave movements resulting from dilation of the crust of the Earth prior to an earthquake, and converting at least one of the wave movements into a first voltage.
  • the method further comprises the step of discriminating between wave movements resulting from dilation of the crust of the Earth and movements resulting from at least one other event.
  • the step of discriminating comprises the step of filtering out wave movements having a frequency below a first predetermined frequency, e.g., about 180 Hertz.
  • the method also comprises the steps of determining a time at which the wave movements are detected by at least one of the first plurality of seismometers, converting the first voltage into digital data, and transmitting the digital data and the time from the at least one first digitizer to a communications interface module.
  • the method comprises the steps of transmitting the digital data and the time from the communications interface module to a data processor, and determining a likelihood of at least one future earthquake based on a number of the wave movements detected over a predetermined period of time.
  • a system for predicting earthquakes comprises a first transducer array.
  • the first transducer array comprises a first plurality of seismometers adapted to detect a plurality of wave movements resulting from dilation of the crust of the Earth prior to an earthquake and to convert at least one of the wave movements into a first voltage.
  • the system also comprises at least one first clock.
  • the at least one first clock is in communication with at least one of the first plurality of seismometers and is adapted to determine a time at which at least one of the first plurality of seismometers detects the wave movements.
  • the system further comprises at least one first digitizer.
  • the at least one first digitizer is in communication with at least one of the first plurality of seismometers and is adapted to convert the first voltage into digital data.
  • the at least one first digitizer comprises a first data transmitter.
  • the system also comprises a communications interface module and a data processor, and the first data transmitter transmits the digital data and the time to the communications interface module, and the communications module transmits the digital data and the time to the data processor.
  • the data processor is adapted to determine at least one characteristic of at least one of the waves, and the first transducer array is positioned adjacent to a seismically active region and at least about 3 meters below the surface of the crust of the Earth.
  • FIG. 1 is a schematic of a system for predicting earthquakes according to an embodiment of the present invention.
  • FIG. 2 is a flow-chart of a method for predicting earthquakes according to another embodiment of the present invention.
  • DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS [0011] Preferred embodiments of the present invention and their advantages may be understood by referring to Figs. 1 and 2, like numerals being used for like corresponding parts in the various drawings.
  • a system 100 for predicting earthquakes may comprise at least one transducer anay 102, e j., between one and about twenty transducer arrays 102.
  • system 100 may comprise a first transducer array 102a, a second transducer array 102b, a third transducer array 102c, a fourth transducer a ⁇ ay 102d, and combinations thereof.
  • Each transducer array 102 may comprise a plurality of seismometers 104, e ⁇ ., between 2 and about 10 seismometers 104, positioned at various locations within transducer array 102.
  • first transducer an-ay 102a may comprise a first plurality of seismometers 104a
  • second transducer array 102b may comprise a second plurality of seismometers 10-4b
  • third transducer an-ay 102c may comprise a third plurality of seismometers 10 -c
  • fourth transducer array 102d may comprise a fourth plurality of seismometers 104d.
  • Seismometers 104 may be adapted to detect wave movements resulting from dilation, i ⁇ e., expansion, of the crust of the Earth, which occurs prior to an earthquake, and to convert the wave movements into a voltage.
  • the crust of the Earth may include those portions of the Earth's interior comprising at least calcium and sodium aluminum-silicate materials, e.g., those portions of the Earth's interior which are up to about 40 kilometers below the surface of the Earth.
  • Seismometers 104 may be multi-axis seismometers, e ⁇ ., three-axis seismometers adapted to detect wave movements in a x-direction, a y-direction, and a z-direction, or single- axis seismometers. Seismometers 104 also may be adapted to discriminate between wave movements resulting from dilation of the crust of the Earth, and wave movements resulting from other events.
  • wave movements resulting from dilation of the crust of the Earth may have frequencies between about 180 and about 360 Hertz
  • seismometers 104 may comprise a filter (not shown) adapted to filter out wave movements having frequencies less than a first predetennined frequency, e ⁇ g., less than about 180 Hertz, or greater than a second predetermined frequency, e.g., greater than about 360 Hertz, or both.
  • the filter of each seismometer 104 may not filter out wave movements resulting from dilation of the crust of the Earth, but may filter our wave movements having frequencies below the first predetermined frequency or above the second predetennined frequency, or both.
  • each seismometer 104 may filter out wave movements resulting from a detonation of an explosive device, e.g., a detonation of a nuclear device, which may cause wave movements having frequencies between about 20 Hertz and about 60 Hertz.
  • Each transducer array 102 also may comprise at least one, e *,, a plurality of, global positioning receivers 106, such as at least one global positioning satellite receiver, and each global positioning receiver 106 may be in communication with at least one of seismometers 104.
  • first transducer array 102a may comprise at least one, e.g., a plurality of, first global positioning receivers 106a, each of which are in communication with at least one of the first plurality of seismometers 104a
  • second transducer an-ay 102b may comprise at least one, ejj., a plurality of, second global positioning receivers 106b, each of which are in communication with at least one of the second plurality of seismometers 104b.
  • third transducer array 102c may comprise at least one, e g., a plurality of, third global positioning receivers 106c, each of which are in communication with at least one of the third plurality of seismometers 104c
  • fourth transducer array 102d may comprise at least one, e.g., a plurality of, fourth global positioning receivers 106d, each of which are in communication with at least one of the fourth plurality of seismometers 104d.
  • Each global positioning receiver 106 may comprise a clock (not shown) adapted to determine a time, e ⁇ g., 9:00 a.m.
  • each global positioning receiver 106 may determine the time at which such detection occurred.
  • the clock of the at least one second global positioning receiver 106b may determine the time at which such detection oc rrred.
  • Each global positioning receiver 106 also may be adapted to determine a location of their associated seismometer 104.
  • each first global positioning receiver 106a may be adapted to determine when their associated seismometer 104a detects wave movements resulting from dilation of the crust of the Earth.
  • system 100 when data is transmitted from first transducer an-ay 102a, system 100 will be able to detennine that such data originated from a particular seismometer 104a of first transducer array 102a.
  • each second global positioning receiver 106b may be adapted to detennine when their associated seismometer 104b detects wave movements resulting from dilation of the crust of the Earth.
  • system 100 will be able to determine that such data originated from a particular seismometer 104b of second transducer array 102b.
  • Each transducer array 102 also may comprise at least one, ejj., a plurality of, digitizers 108, and each digitizer 108 may be in communication with at least one of seismometers 104.
  • first transducer array 102a may comprise at least one, e ⁇ g., a plurality of, first digitizers 108a, each of which are in communication with at least one of the first plurality of seismometers 104a
  • second transducer array 102b may comprise at least one, ej?., a plurality of, second digitizers 108b, each of which are in communication with at least one of the second plurality of seismometers 104b.
  • third transducer array 102c may comprise at least one, e ⁇ ., a plurality of, third digitizers 108c, each of which are in communication with at least one of the third plurality of seismometers 104c
  • fourth transducer a ⁇ ay 102d may comprise at least one, e ⁇ g., a plurality of, fourth digitizers 108d, each of which are in communication with at least one of the fourth plurality of seismometers 104d.
  • Each digitizer 108 may be adapted to convert voltage into digital data, and also may comprise a data transmitter 110, e.g., data transmitters HOa-l lOd.
  • System 100 also may comprise a communications interface module 112 and a data processor 114. [0022] In operation, at least one of digitizers 108 may convert voltage into digital data.
  • data transmitter 110 of digitizer 108 may transmit the digital data, the time at which seismometer 104 detected the wave movement, the location of seismometer 104, and combinations thereof to communications interface module 112.
  • Data transmitter 110 may transmit the digital data, the time, the location, and combinations thereof by any known transmission method, e ⁇ g., via a wireless system, such as a radio modem, a hardwired system, or the like.
  • a wireless system such as a radio modem, a hardwired system, or the like.
  • each data transmitter 1 10 may transmit data at a different radio frequency than each of the other data transmitters 1 1O, or may transmit data at the same radio frequency as at least one other data transmitter 110.
  • communications interface module 112 may be adapted to prevent those data transmitters 110 transmitting data at the same radio frequency from simultaneously transmitting data to communications interface module 112.
  • Communications interface module 112 further may transmit the digital data, the time, the location, and combinations thereof to data processor 114.
  • Communications interface module 112 may transmit the digital data, the time, the location, and combinations thereof by any known transmission method, e ⁇ ., via a wireless system, a hardwired system, or the like.
  • communications interface module 112 may convert the data which it received from each digitizer 108 into a single stream of data, and may transmit the single stream of data to data processor 114.
  • data processor 114 may be adapted to detennine a velocity of the waves resulting from dilation of the crust of the Earth.
  • Data processor 114 also may be adapted to determine an amplitude of the waves resulting from dilation of the crust of the Earth.
  • data processor 114 may be adapted to determine a direction of movement of the waves resulting from dilation of the crust of the Earth.
  • data processor 114 may comprise software adapted to detennine the velocity of the waves, the amplitude of the waves, and the direction of wave movement.
  • each of the first plurality of seismometers 104a of first transducer array 102a may be positioned adjacent to a seismically active region, and also may be positioned a predetermined distance below the surface of the crust of the Earth.
  • each of the first plurality of seismometers 104a may be positioned between about 3 meters and about 100 meters below the surface of the c st of the Earth.
  • the predetennined distance below the surface of the crust of the Earth may be any distance sufficient to prevent seismometers 104 from detecting disturbances occuning on or above the surface of the crust of the Earth, e.g., rain, animal movement, or the like, and to allow seismometers 104 to detect wave movements resulting from dilation of the crust of the Earth.
  • each of the first plurality of seismometers 104a may be separated from each other by a predetennined separation distance, e ⁇ g., between about 15 meters and about 1500 meters.
  • each of the second plurality of seismometers 104b of second transducer array 102b may be positioned adjacent to the seismically active region, and also may be positioned the predetermined distance below the surface of the cmst of the Earth.
  • Second transducer array 102b may be positioned between about 30 kilometers and about 70 kilometers from first transducer arcay 102a.
  • each of the third plurality of seismometers 104c of third transducer array 102c may be positioned adjacent to the seismically active region, and also may be positioned the predetermined distance below the surface of the cmst of the Earth.
  • Third transducer array 102c may be positioned between about 3O kilometers and about 70 kilometers from second transducer array 102b.
  • each seismometer 104 detecting the wave movements may convert the wave movements into a voltage.
  • each digitizer 108 in communication with at least one of seismometers 104 detecting the wave movements may convert the voltage into digital data, and each clock in communication with at least one of seismometers 104 detecting the wave movements may determine the time or the times at which the wave movements were detected by seismometer 104.
  • each global positioning receiver 106 may detemiine whether their associated seismometer 104 detected wave movements.
  • each transmitter 110 of each digitizer 108 in communication with at least one of seismometers 104 detecting the wave movements may transmit the digital data, the time at which the associated seismometer 104 detected the wave movements, and the location of the associated seismometer 104 to communications interface module 112.
  • Communications interface module 112 may convert the data which it received from digitizers 108 into a single stream of data, and also may transmit the single stream of data to data processor 1 14.
  • Data processor 114 may detennine the velocity of the waves detected by each plurality of seismometers 104, the amplitude of the waves detected by each plurality of seismometers 104, and the direction of wave movement.
  • the likelihood of at least one future earthquake may be determined. Specifically, as the frequency of the wave movements over the predetem ined period of time increases, the likelihood of at least one future earthquake also may increase. For example, when the frequency of the wave movements over the predetermined period of time is greater than a predetennined frequency of wave movements over the predetermined period of time, it may be more likely than not, Lo , greater than 5O%, that an earthquake will occur between about 8 hours and about 24 hours from when the frequency of the wave movements over the predetermined period of time suipassed the predetermined frequency of wave movements over the predetermined period of time.
  • step 200 a method 200 of predicting earthquakes is described.
  • At least one transducer arcay 102 may be positioned adjacent to a seismically active region and between about 3 meters and about 100 meters below the cmst of the Earth.
  • each transducer a ⁇ ay 102 may be between about 30 kilometers and about 70 kilometers from another transducer array 102.
  • step 204 a plurality of wave movements resulting from dilation of the cmst of the Earth are detected, and the wave movements are converted to voltages.
  • wave movements resulting from dilation of the cmst of the Earth may be discriminated from wave movements resulting from at least one other event by filtering out those wave movements having frequencies which are less than a first predetennined frequency, e ⁇ g., less than about 180 Hertz, or greater than a second predetermined frequency, e.g., greater than about 360 Hertz, or both.
  • a time at which, the wave movements are detected by at least one seismometer 104 may be determined.
  • the location of seismometer 104 which detected wave movements resulting from dilation of the crust of the Earth also may be determined.
  • the voltage may be converted into digital data, and in step 212, the digital data, the time, the location, and combinations thereof may be transmitted from a transmitter 110 of a digitizer 108 to a communications interface module 112.
  • step 214 the digital data, the time, the location, and combinations thereof may be transmitted from communications interface module 1 12 to a data processor 114.
  • step 216 a velocity and an amplitude of the waves may be determined, and in step 218, a direction of movement of the waves may be determined.
  • step 220 a likelihood of at least one future earthquake may be determined based on the number of wave movements detected over a predetennined period of time.
  • the method also may comprise steps 222 and 224.
  • an approximate location of the at least one earthquake may be determined based on the direction of movement of the waves.
  • an approximate magnitude of the at least one earthquake may be determined based on the amplitude and velocity of the waves.
  • an appropriate entity or person e ⁇ ., an appropriate government agency or government official, may be contacted in order to advise that entity or person of the at least one earthquake,

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  • Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Life Sciences & Earth Sciences (AREA)
  • Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Acoustics & Sound (AREA)
  • Environmental & Geological Engineering (AREA)
  • Geology (AREA)
  • Remote Sensing (AREA)
  • General Life Sciences & Earth Sciences (AREA)
  • General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Geophysics (AREA)
  • Geophysics And Detection Of Objects (AREA)

Abstract

L'invention concerne un procédé permettant de prévoir les séismes, consistant à positionner un premier réseau de transducteurs à proximité d'une zone d'activité sismique et à au moins 3 mètres sous la surface de la croûte terrestre. Le premier réseau de transducteurs comprend une première pluralité de séismomètres, au moins une première horloge et au moins un numériseur. La première horloge est reliée à au moins un des séismomètres et le premier numériseur est également relié à au moins un des séismomètres. Le procédé consiste également à détecter une pluralité de mouvements d'ondes résultant de l'élargissement de la croûte terrestre avant un séisme et à convertir au moins un des mouvements d'ondes en une première tension. Le procédé consiste également à distinguer les mouvements d'ondes résultant de l'élargissement de la croûte terrestre des mouvements résultant d'au moins un autre événement. L'étape de distinction consiste à éliminer par filtrage les mouvements d'ondes ayant une fréquence inférieure à une première fréquence prédéterminée, environ 180 Hertz, par exemple. Le procédé consiste également à déterminer une heure à laquelle les mouvements d'ondes sont détectés par au moins un des séismomètres, à convertir la première tension en données numériques et à transmettre les données numériques et l'heure à un module d'interface de communication depuis le numériseur. Par ailleurs, le procédé consiste à transmettre les données numériques et l'heure à un processeur de données depuis le module d'interface de communication et à déterminer la probabilité d'au moins un futur séisme sur la base d'un nombre de mouvements d'ondes détectés sur une durée prédéterminée.
PCT/US2003/026761 2003-08-27 2003-08-27 Systemes de prevision des seismes et leurs procedes d'utilisation WO2005031390A1 (fr)

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PCT/US2003/026761 WO2005031390A1 (fr) 2003-08-27 2003-08-27 Systemes de prevision des seismes et leurs procedes d'utilisation
AU2003262892A AU2003262892A1 (en) 2003-08-27 2003-08-27 Systems for and method of predicting earthquakes

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PCT/US2003/026761 WO2005031390A1 (fr) 2003-08-27 2003-08-27 Systemes de prevision des seismes et leurs procedes d'utilisation

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Citations (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
WO2000058756A1 (fr) * 1999-03-26 2000-10-05 The University Court Of The University Of Edinburgh Previsions des contraintes lors d'evenements sismiques
US20020103603A1 (en) * 2001-01-29 2002-08-01 Masatoshi Kawashima Method for predicting seismic event using value of magnitude, position of seismic event, time of seismic event, using seismograph for measuring quake of earth

Patent Citations (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
WO2000058756A1 (fr) * 1999-03-26 2000-10-05 The University Court Of The University Of Edinburgh Previsions des contraintes lors d'evenements sismiques
US20020103603A1 (en) * 2001-01-29 2002-08-01 Masatoshi Kawashima Method for predicting seismic event using value of magnitude, position of seismic event, time of seismic event, using seismograph for measuring quake of earth

Non-Patent Citations (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Title
MATSUOKA S; SUMI K; MIYASHITA K: "Seismic array observation network system", FUJTAR - ISSN 0016-2515, vol. 34, no. 7, 1983 - 1983, Fujitsu, Japan, pages 1147 - 1156, XP009028679 *
STEINWACHS M: "Mobile Array for Digital Recording and Interpretation of Local Earthquakes - A Prerequisit for the Prediction of Strong Aftershocks", PROC. OF THE 7TH EUROPEAN CONF. ON EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING, 1982, pages 179 - 187, XP001180709 *
WASSERMANN J, OHRNBERGER M: "Automatic hypocenter determination of volcano induced seismic transients based on wavefield coherence - an application to the 1998 eruption of Mt. Merapi, Indonesia", J. OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH, vol. 110, 2001, pages 57 - 77, XP002276272 *

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