WO2001001206A9 - Generateur de modeles du comportement dynamique de systemes et simulateur associe - Google Patents

Generateur de modeles du comportement dynamique de systemes et simulateur associe

Info

Publication number
WO2001001206A9
WO2001001206A9 PCT/US2000/017793 US0017793W WO0101206A9 WO 2001001206 A9 WO2001001206 A9 WO 2001001206A9 US 0017793 W US0017793 W US 0017793W WO 0101206 A9 WO0101206 A9 WO 0101206A9
Authority
WO
WIPO (PCT)
Prior art keywords
model
group
definition
variables
variable
Prior art date
Application number
PCT/US2000/017793
Other languages
English (en)
Other versions
WO2001001206A3 (fr
WO2001001206A2 (fr
Inventor
C Keith Eubanks
Alan K Graham
Larry Yeager
Andy Evans
Gregg Dieguez
John S Fine
Adolfo Canovi
Chris Heye
Peter Maximov
Harry Chan
Lauderman Karl Von
Original Assignee
Strategic Simulation Systems I
Priority date (The priority date is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the date listed.)
Filing date
Publication date
Application filed by Strategic Simulation Systems I filed Critical Strategic Simulation Systems I
Publication of WO2001001206A2 publication Critical patent/WO2001001206A2/fr
Publication of WO2001001206A3 publication Critical patent/WO2001001206A3/fr
Publication of WO2001001206A9 publication Critical patent/WO2001001206A9/fr

Links

Classifications

    • G—PHYSICS
    • G05—CONTROLLING; REGULATING
    • G05B—CONTROL OR REGULATING SYSTEMS IN GENERAL; FUNCTIONAL ELEMENTS OF SUCH SYSTEMS; MONITORING OR TESTING ARRANGEMENTS FOR SUCH SYSTEMS OR ELEMENTS
    • G05B17/00—Systems involving the use of models or simulators of said systems
    • G05B17/02—Systems involving the use of models or simulators of said systems electric
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F30/00—Computer-aided design [CAD]
    • G06F30/20—Design optimisation, verification or simulation
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F2111/00—Details relating to CAD techniques
    • G06F2111/12—Symbolic schematics

Definitions

  • the present invention relates to systems, methods and products for developing
  • control mechanisms such as rules or policies
  • model developer attempts to define a model in terms of fundamental constituent elements so that the model is as simple as
  • Relationships between any two elements can be defined functionally, that is in the form of an equation, or empirically, for example using a table listing an observed set of
  • Simulating a system dynamics model causes the model to advance through a
  • Variables interact with one another due to a variety of feedback mechanisms, causing the values of the variables, and thus the response of the system as a whole, to change over time. Instead of focusing on the independent activity of isolated sub-units, system
  • system dynamics simulations tend to be more descriptive, in that the initial conditions are set and the computer determines what would happen to the system over a particular time interval. System dynamics simulations are thus far more often "what-if ' models. This
  • a system dynamics model typically represents a set of linear and non-linear
  • Construction and simulation of system dynamics models involves: (i) developing a model structure that is representative of the physical system relevant to the problem,
  • variables that are representative of the system including defining the variables that are representative of the system, (ii) defining the behavior of variables in the system, which are essentially a set of decision-making rules,
  • Tests of the model determine its validity or relevance and hence its usefulness. Tests might include model causal tests and model behavior
  • the model needs to be adjusted because it produced an outcome that is not physically possible.
  • the boundaries of the system In developing a system dynamics model, the boundaries of the system to be
  • model definition produces a flow diagram
  • translating the model into a computer executable model is most easily accomplished through a graphical user interface.
  • STELLA and to a lesser extent, Powersim Constructor, are designed primarily to support the construction and simulation of relatively small system dynamics
  • DYNAMO is capable of running large models, but lacks the graphical, model-building capability and other features related to ease of use. Moreover,
  • the environment may include means responsive to user selection of a plurality of model definition elements for the group, means responsive to user selection for defining
  • defimtion element to another model definition element in the group, and means for
  • Another aspect of the invention may provide a computer program in a computer-
  • Each group provides a set of interactive model definition elements, where the dynamic relationship among the model
  • the computer program may provide means responsive to user selection of a plurality of system dynamics groups. Means are provided for hierarchically arranging the groups in a system dynamics model structure and means are provided for copying a variable and its
  • the computer program also provides
  • Still another aspect of the model provides a method of building a complex system
  • model definition elements of all groups in the system model defines the structural and quantitative relationship among the variables that comprise the system model.
  • the method preferably includes steps such as configuring a system dynamic
  • the method allows the copying of a variable from a first group to a second group.
  • the dynamic relationship among the groups is defined to
  • the tool having a graphical interface for inputting a flow diagram representation of one or more system dynamics model elements.
  • the tool includes a definition facility, linked to
  • the graphical interface and accessible from the flow diagram representation, for defining one or more characteristics of a model element.
  • the graphical interface is adapted to
  • the graphical interface is further
  • the input is represented in the flow diagram in a manner visibly
  • a compiler for the tool receives as input the variables and equations within the model and operates on the variables and equations to ensure that a definition exists for
  • a compiler receives as input a plurality of
  • the tool further includes a
  • the simulator calculating a second subset of equations at each of the plurality of time intervals and calculating the first subset of equations at fewer than the plurality of time intervals.
  • FIG. 1 illustrates a flow diagram view in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention.
  • FIG. 2 illustrates a variable properties box in accordance with a preferred embodiment of the present invention.
  • FIG. 3 illustrates a chart generated in accordance with a preferred embodiment of
  • FIG. 4 illustrates a view of the navigator screen in accordance with an
  • FIG. 5 provides a view of a dashboard screen in accordance with a preferred
  • FIG. 6 shows an exemplary table of the icons within the application toolbar of an embodiment of the present invention.
  • FIG. 7 shows a table of icons for a control toolbar in accordance with an
  • FIG. 8 shows an implementation of aspects of the present invention within a
  • Variables within a group may be defined solely within
  • the compiler recognizes the presence of a shared variable within the two groups and links the two groups together.
  • variables on a layer may contain within them one or more layers of sub-functions or
  • present invention is in addition to such a multilayered structure.
  • the present invention may be embodied as a computer program product including some or all of the preferred methods that facilitate the construction and simulation of
  • a fast, efficient simulation engine enables certain particularly preferred embodiments of the present invention to combine the ease of use of graphical interfaces
  • Preferred implementations of the present invention provide a graphical editor to
  • a computer display may show a
  • interconnections can be easily defined using familiar graphical editing techniques and a natural representation of a flow diagram.
  • variable definitions can be directly entered from variable definition dialog boxes
  • a first and a second level are accessible from the graphical user interface. For example, a first and a second level
  • Rate variables might be placed on a flow diagram using the graphical editor. Rate variables could then be defined and connectors could be placed between any of the level variables
  • Placement and definition of the variables in this way, including the definition of the relationships among the variables, allows for a natural and interactive modeling environment that facilitates the easier development of models.
  • the text editor provides a mechanism for creating a model without the use of graphical icons.
  • the graphical user interface can be used to define the model in ways best suited to graphical manipulation, such as overall structural layout, and the text-based
  • variable definition editor can be used to define aspects of the model most appropriate to a
  • a user in the modeling environment preferably
  • model developer is complementary to the graphical and text editors and provides a model developer with model elements in a hierarchical, tabular or chart-like display so that the developer can easily store, locate, and retrieve major model components, such as groups, variables,
  • the navigator feature allows a developer the ability to view and edit a substantial quantity of data in an organized format. For example, the model
  • the system dynamics modeling environment provides a navigator interface
  • Advanced charting features enable users to create a wide range of two-dimensional and
  • one embodiment of the modeling environment directed to this objective provides a complete implementation of some or all of the aspects of the present invention
  • modeling environment to be modular so that the environment supports component-based
  • model refers to several related aspects, including the
  • Model The entire set of information that is used in a modeling project
  • SDMDB A System Dynamics Model Database contains some or all of the
  • information for a modeling project may also contain all or parts of multiple models, model versions, and model variants.
  • SDMDB may be distributed as a single entity.
  • Model Structure The equations and associated flow diagrams that define a model.
  • Model Version A specific set of model structure equations that is different from
  • Scenario A scenario is a specific model simulation that is based on a
  • Model Data Static information typically actual system behavior, about modeled system behavior which is used as a point of comparison
  • Building and simulating system dynamics models within a modeling environment provided by the present invention preferably involves an iterative process.
  • a model is built by defining individual model elements such as variables and the relationships among the variables. This may be done using the graphical editor, a textual editor or, more preferably, both types of editors both sequentially and in cooperation. Simulation of the model proceeds by defining initial variable states and the length of the
  • the simulation function preferably includes a compilation
  • the simulation results be compared to model data to evaluate the accuracy of the model and the parameters provided to the model. Based on the results
  • the user can then re-specify model variables to modify the results.
  • the scenario or model is preferably combined with an appropriate set of user interface controls by using the dashboard functionality of preferred aspects of the present invention.
  • the scenario or model is preferably
  • data and other information related to a model are stored within
  • SDMDB's system dynamics model databases within the modeling environment.
  • the database structure is a fundamental characteristic of the modeling environment and provides a structure for the data both during data editing and during compilation and
  • the database structure also simplifies the tracking of various pieces of work
  • An SDMDB contains some or all of the system
  • An SDMDB may also be associated with an SDMDB.
  • SDMDB's may contain a portion of a separately
  • SDMDB's are stored as physical files that may be distributed, copied, or deleted. Access to the contents of an SDMDB is achieved by
  • SDMDB system dynamics model definition facilities
  • SDMDB embodiments may contain entire models or sectors of models. Other embodiments may simply contain macros or tables, as described more fully below.
  • Model definition and model analysis is performed in the context of an active SDMDB. That is, whenever a model developer uses the modeling environment, the
  • the developer preferably has access to at least one SDMDB and defines the model within that database, whether through the graphical editor or through a textual editor, by describing the various elements of the model.
  • the developer may select a current model or create a new model, which in turn preferably selects the associated SDMDB or
  • the modeling environment prompts the
  • the developer may open two or
  • Scenarios, groups, or elements may be copied or moved
  • SDMDB ' s Some embodiments of standard SDMDB ' s are write protected and
  • SDMDB may be a library of reusable and independently testable model elements.
  • such a database is read-only to the typical user or to users defined below a
  • a modeling environment may include or have
  • facilities are provided within the modeling environment so that an
  • SDMDB can be generated and made read-only (“locked”) to future users or to users that
  • model groups and other model elements inside model groups.
  • the concept of the group is a particularly
  • a model may contain a financial sector, manufacturing sector, purchasing sector,
  • model groups are a collection of individual but tightly interrelated groups
  • each group preferably has defined within it an interface to one or more other groups.
  • FIG. 1 might define a single immune system group within
  • each group within the model would have a corresponding screen that could be called up into the graphical interface by accessing the
  • Each of the groups with their associated screens has a
  • the group can be accessed, for editing or otherwise, by referencing the name associated with the group in the group definition process facilitated through the screen of FIG. 1.
  • the group definition screen of FIG. 1 shows
  • FIG. 1 The complexity of the immune system group shown in FIG. 1 illustrates
  • model defimtion elements of all groups in the system model defines the structural
  • This embodiment preferably includes a means responsive to user selection of a plurality of system dynamics groups, a means for hierarchically arranging the groups in a system
  • the computer program product simulates the performance of the complex system dynamics model. This preferred
  • implementation preferably includes a means for enabling the groups to dynamically interact during initialization of the system model and as the system model is exercised in a simulation.
  • Another embodiment of the present invention is a computer program product in a
  • model defimtion elements includes model defimtion elements and may have both equation and graphical
  • each group includes at least one interface to another group, including at least one reference to a variable in another group.
  • a first group might include model
  • defimtion elements that are selected from the following:
  • the group can also include a list of SDMDB's and models to search for additional groups and can further contain simulation specifications.
  • variable types that might be defined include:
  • Bezier curves are supported for information links and general sketching. These information links and flow links move intelligently when objects are moved. The user
  • properties include shape, color, style, size, font, and
  • the user may change the default characteristics for new objects, by object
  • the user may also change characteristics for any individual element or selected set
  • the user may customize the view by including or excluding ghosts, parameters, and constants.
  • Free- form flow diagrams contain any combination of variables, parameters, or groups and may be constructed by copying all or part of group diagrams. To the extent possible, free-flow diagrams are automatically updated when a variable or link is deleted
  • implementation of a system dynamics model in accordance with the invention may continue after initial database selection by utilizing means responsive to user selection for defining the hierarchical structural relationship of the model defimtion
  • a developer builds a model using the graphics editor 1 by selecting a variable type (level, rate, auxiliary, or constant) from a tool bar 2 and places it on the
  • a preferred embodiment further includes a means responsive to user selection for
  • definition element in the group This might be accomplished in an editing environment
  • the properties box 50 might have an appearance and functionality like that shown in FIG. 2 and can be used to further define and specify the exact form of the variable.
  • Each variable type has a slightly different properties box as appropriate to how the variable
  • Preferred embodiments might further include means for copying a model
  • defimtion element from a first group to a second group. This might be accomplished using conventional "cut and paste” graphical editing techniques between two group
  • a form of model defimtion copying is accomplished by copying an SDMDB and editing within that copy of the SDMDB.
  • This preferred aspect of the present invention allows models to be constructed
  • the computer program product can simulate the performance of the model consisting of at least one
  • the simulator solves the equations for each time period until the simulator
  • length of the simulation are set by the user. For example, a user may specify a simulation time period of one day, and simulate a model for 365 time periods.
  • Simulation output can be viewed in either graphical or tabular form.
  • the computer product of the present invention preferably possesses advanced charting capabilities that allow the user to view simulation results in a variety of formats. Users may chose from a range of two-dimensional and three-dimensional bar, column, pie, line and area charts. An example of one form of graphical output is shown in FIG. 3.
  • Preferred embodiments of the modeling environment include a means of generating a graphical user interface (GUI) responsive to user commands input through a GUI
  • graphical editing tool such as a mouse or other implement that interacts with the
  • This GUI can include a means of navigating through the model to a particular group and displaying a view of the state of the group.
  • the GUI includes a screen displaying the hierarchical structure of the model, a means for selecting a group from the
  • the program preferably
  • Inputs from other groups may be optionally displayed as ghosts.
  • Output to other groups may also be optionally displayed.
  • the user may add or delete
  • equation may be modified in the text editor or in the variable dialog box that can be accessed by clicking on the element in the flow diagram.
  • Groups may also be used as macros or as molecules, which are groups specifically
  • Groups designated as macros or molecules contain equation structures that can be used (i) by more than one model, (ii) more than once within a model, or (iii) both. Macros within the modeling environment of the present invention are fully
  • the group definition screen lists the calling arguments for the macro in
  • a macro may contain
  • Macros are invoked in equation mode by using their group name.
  • a group is suitable for reuse as a molecule. If a group is used as a molecule, it is referred to
  • a molecule as a molecule; otherwise, it is simply called a group. Molecules most preferably contain all of the information necessary to make them reusable and commercially distributable. Thus, a molecule contains not only equations and flow diagrams, but also appropriate
  • molecule function provide help information that assists the user in using the molecule
  • Molecules connect to the rest of a model by connecting variable names defined within the molecule to variable names defined within the model and the SDMDB for the
  • a molecule may be used many times within a model. To function, however, the model must either map every output variable from the molecule to a variable externally defined in the group or use the extended name for all references.
  • the reference statement may then be:
  • each array is preferably assigned one or more additional dimensions:
  • Molecule arrays may be used to construct models with predefined model subsets having dimensions varying according to the model or model version. If a model input variable is
  • input array is preferably used for each affected molecule calculation.
  • modeling environment most preferably also allows a user to define an explicit source for
  • Open flow diagram Opens the primary flow diagram window for the selected
  • Open text editor which opens the text editor view for the group.
  • Properties Window describes group properties and other comments.
  • the user is able to create a new group within the model definition of the SDMDB by
  • the user may also select a group from the current model or from any available SDMDB.
  • Delete Group which the user may use to "ungroup” the selected group and to assign all of its components to the next higher group.
  • Old versions of groups may be included in the current version.
  • the modeling environment provides the ability to build and execute simulations of system dynamics models and to make the results available for review and analysis. This is facilitated in particularly preferred embodiments by
  • the simulator is an integral part of the modeling environment, not a separate program.
  • modeling environment preferably recodes the model equations into tables and structures
  • these structures are maintained over the life of one or more simulations and preferably support multiple
  • the core of the simulation engine most preferably is implemented in performance-coded assembly language to provide high execution speed.
  • a system dynamics model does not
  • variable references will exist within the model (actually, within one or more SDMDB's)
  • the simulator To generate a simulation, the simulator generally determines a correct
  • the integrated design of a simulator in accordance with the present invention also provides a more flexible simulation environment. "DYNAMO,” which is perhaps the
  • preferred embodiments of the present invention address the difficulties of run-time sequencing through the use of individual instruction pointers for each element of each array as well as the use of relative addressing within the instruction tables through p-code.
  • the simulator preferably also produces sequenced lists of variables that are to be
  • a system dynamics model typically requires the execution of a number of equations for a specified number of time periods.
  • model might include major segments of equations, or groups, that are not executed during significant portions of the simulation period.
  • "DYNAMO” as an example of a system
  • the compiler of the present invention is designed to reduce simulation times
  • the simulator keeps
  • the modeling environment preferably maintains a list of variables that are known to be uniquely required by a group, which variables are uniquely produced by a group, and which variables are shared with other groups.
  • the program builds lists of those
  • Implementations of the modeling environment within a computer program product preferably also utilize a variety of code optimization techniques such as branch
  • modeling system accurately and quickly leads to reduced development time and improved design quality. That is, when the model is simulated more quickly, it is possible to run more simulations and it is easier to achieve an accurate model.
  • Simulation specification group This is a special group that contains the
  • arrays Support is provided for arrays, which are matrices of elements of the same
  • variable dialog box may be declared an array by designating dimensions in the variable dialog box.
  • the definition of a model includes the structural and quantitative relationships among the variables and other elements that comprise the system being studied.
  • variable dialog box accessed through the navigator functionality.
  • the navigator functionality is represented as a tabbed display chart. This
  • the navigator functionality is in addition to the graphical interface preferably provided to define flow diagrams and variables through the
  • variable definition dialog boxes preferably integrated with the graphical interface.
  • the navigator functionality is well suited to the definition of groups and for working with groups in the model, since groups can be called by entering or clicking the group name and the entirety of the group can be viewed.
  • FIG. 4 shows a particularly preferred implementation of a navigator window.
  • navigator allows users to easily store and display major elements of a model.
  • the navigator shows the model structure as an arrangement of model groups. Tabs can be selected by the user to show various attributes of the group, for example
  • pane has tabs to show different information about the contents of the specific model that
  • FIG. 4 shows the "variables" tab selected for a particular group. Within the “variables" view are the name of the variables, the variable
  • the navigator tree provides a rapid way for the user to review model structure
  • the primary branches of the navigator tree are those groups that directly determine the current version of the model.
  • the top level view is presented as a tree
  • the navigator view options are controlled through a menu choice. Groups are marked
  • the user may choose views that display only selected types of elements. For instance,
  • the user may decide to view only levels.
  • the user may also choose to view a group by
  • a group may be moved to another location in the tree, by using "cut” and “paste” commands from the edit menu or by using the “drag and drop” technique. If a sub-group
  • Embodiments may be used in: 1) system dynamics simulation software, 2) more general simulation technology and model building tools, and 3) business decision
  • Various embodiments are adapted to each of the users, without limitation: 1) a “model builder' for system dynamics simulation high-end users, 2) "application
  • dashboard builder including the dashboard builder and packaged molecules, for broader simulation technologies users, such as consultants and other business analysts with technical
  • This capability allows a broad array of users to develop
  • dashboard controls provided in the packaging of the model. Users may also create a custom user interface
  • the dashboard builder is a standard multiple document application contained
  • the computer program product includes a means of designing a customized graphical user
  • GUI GUI
  • the means of designing the customized GUI further includes a
  • the application has several menus and toolbars that provide the means for a user
  • FIG. 5 shows the dashboard builder application with two open
  • dashboard files From this interface of the dashboard builder, a model developer can build an interface specific to a model. For example, if there are model characteristics that an end user is expected to vary in using a distribution version of a model, then appropriate data input controls are provided. Other user interface features are readily
  • dashboard builder functionality provided to a distribution version of a model using the dashboard builder functionality.
  • the active window "Dashboard One" of the dashboard builder interface contains four
  • the active control is highlighted with a bold box and contains handles for resizing.
  • FIG. 5, 6 and 7 describe the icons in the two tool bars on the dashboard-builder interface.
  • the "application” toolbar contains icons for many
  • control toolbar contains icons for controls that can be dragged out on a dashboard.
  • the user may add controls to this toolbar in the "Toolbar Add-ins" dialog.
  • dashboard functionality allows a model developer to customize the dashboard
  • the end-user environment may have a very different look
  • the customized environment interface developed through the dashboard builder may be used to restrict the end user's choices or
  • distribution ready user interface may include any of the standard functions from the
  • the dashboard builder interface preferably provides controls-adapted "Help" messages
  • the help messages provided may address navigator issues, for example how to use the
  • Dashboards may be designed that provide input controls and information displays customized for use by a specific type of end user or group of end-users. Each dashboard may have a number of "views" that may be selected by the end-user or that appear or disappear based on certain input or result values. A dashboard can present a control panel
  • Dashboard design is a menu-driven process. The user
  • designing the dashboard may modify an existing dashboard or create a new dashboard.
  • the design area preferably has the format of a familiar WYSIWYG ("what you see is what you get") area surrounded by various buttons and controls.
  • the design may place as
  • the end-user may
  • the end user may also select one or more of
  • dashboard display may be defined in terms of cunent scenarios or variables. These displays preferably change automatically when the end-user changes the current status of scenarios or variables. Other displays
  • dashboard may be fixed in either situation.
  • Various portions of the dashboard may provide the end-
  • Parameter selection trees are available to the designer and provide access to parameters and dialog
  • These trees are defined as a multi-leveled hierarchy.
  • Plots and charts may be positioned as display windows. The end-user is able to
  • Each display may include an optional border, background color and pattern, and other characteristics. Any plot may have associated analysis equations that
  • Tabular output and other text based reports are configured in a manner similar to the plots and charts referenced here.
  • Text boxes and labels may be used to explain what the input represents.
  • Radio buttons may be used to provide the end-user with an easy method of selecting a particular parameter set or group of parameter settings. Thus, the dashboard designer may present
  • a clustered entry dialog can be configured to provide
  • the dashboard designer may provide a sheltered view, or a sub-set of the program's full capabilities, by limiting the controls available within that view. Controls
  • dashboard may also provide access
  • the computer program product further includes a
  • the user designing the dashboard may define analysis progressions that provide the end-user with
  • the user may click on any line, bar, slice or row in a chart or tabular output
  • FIG. 3 chart might click on the chart to view the functionality that defines the graphical output.
  • the software preferably keeps a record of groups that were changed
  • a Date/Time/Author Stamp contains the date, time and author that applied when a
  • the model has a DTA stamp when it was originally created, and has a latest change DTA stamp, set when the user saves the file.
  • preferably is set to the Windows user name as a default, but may be changed in the
  • Each group has a latest change DTA stamp, known as the Group Modification DTA Stamp. This is set immediately whenever the contents of the group
  • a menu command preferably allows the user to select two model files to compare.
  • a standard 'Open' dialog allows the user to pick the target data files and then the source data file. All changes made via the model comparison dialogs preferably are made to the target file. Thus, the usual procedure is for the user to create a new copy of one of the
  • Modification DTA stamps for the two files are checked first. If they are the same, the files are reported as identical, with no further action taken.
  • the models will be opened (if not open already) and contents of the models will
  • This window is a regular application window, not a dialog, allowing it to be moved and
  • a group comparison allows the user to compare the contents of a group that exists
  • variable exists in the other model, and if contents are the same.
  • window is a regular application window, not a dialog, allowing it to be moved
  • the scenario can be a useful tool in analyzing model behavior.
  • a scenario is a specific set of
  • a scenario should produce the same results each time it is run. Variable changes that can alter the results constitute a new scenario.
  • a scenario always relates to a specific version of a model and to a specific set of parameter values. The user may create
  • scenario number is assigned in numerical sequence within the SDMDB.
  • Model parameters are accessible in a tree, similar to file folder trees conventionally found
  • Model simulation runs i.e., scenarios, that are executed based on these parameter changes can be named and are automatically saved by the program. Users can also view a
  • the scenario roster shows all
  • the user may save the results of a simulation run.
  • the "save" command closes
  • the user may request the scenario and freezes all of the inputs required to generate the result.
  • the user may
  • the user is preferably forced to choose one of the above prior to
  • the scenario list is used to select which scenario to use as a base for other scenarios. In browse mode, the user can quickly scan the assumptions that distinguish among the various scenarios.
  • the list format may also be used to select scenarios to review. A grid is used to review and select scenarios.
  • the scenario list box may also be
  • Scenario numbers are unique within an SDMDB and are assigned starting with the number 1.
  • the default name for a scenario consists of the model name and an ordinal number sequentially designating the scenario. Alternate names and aliases may be
  • Scenario numbers are not re-used within a given model, even if
  • the user may change any parameter used by the model.
  • the user may construct
  • Parameter sets are assigned names that identify a
  • the user may create multiple versions of a parameter set and specify that a model be executed using each set of values.
  • Parameter sets are created at the model level.
  • the parameter set is created at the model level.
  • Each parameter set contains a set of parameters and values for those parameters.
  • Parameter set membership meaning the list
  • results of each scenario are stored in a results area that contains variables
  • the user may select a variable to display by clicking on it anywhere within the
  • model structure (navigator, flow diagram, or text editor).
  • model structure several options appear including the display of the default plot.
  • the program includes a number of standard plot capabilities, including line plots,
  • the user may have many plots on the screen at one time.
  • the user may have many plots on the screen at one time.
  • Tabular output may be viewed in much the same way as charts.
  • the tables may be selected from standard comparative displays or from custom tables. The user can
  • the user may also specify algebraic expressions whose results are displayed.
  • the specification may include the option to use the
  • variable cunent as of the run-time or to use the original variable value set at the time the model was built.
  • click-to-trace command combines aspects of the click-to-plot, rapid mode, and tree
  • click-to-trace mode the user may also view a text box that
  • This box is cumulative; it includes the starting
  • Scenario results may be directly output in spreadsheet form, for instance into
  • Output properties may be used to control labels and
  • Equation Syntax The equations specified for levels, flows, and auxiliary variables
  • variable definition box for a level provides a very structured format for
  • every input and output is required to be assigned a
  • Flow equations may be modified in this window. Alternately, the user can double click to move to a detailed flow screen. Changes in the flow screen automatically update
  • Model variables are created for each flow referenced, unless the variable already exists.
  • the initial value specification may switch to another screen.
  • variables used by section will provide an initial view into model structure.
  • Flow equations may be associated with specific source and destination
  • Table variables may be specified using the graphical table changer or they may be displayed in a matrix format.
  • Variable subscripts will use a graphical tree control for specifying and displaying subscript families (i.e., anays) and elements to which the subscripts are applied.
  • subscript families i.e., anays
  • the user selects the subscript using the variable dialog box extension pad. Once applied, the family display will show the subscript in the
  • Automated simulation control refers to various analysis activities that consist of running a number of simulations and analyzing the results. Each of these analysis
  • sessions begins with a definition of the simulations to run and of the reports or outputs to
  • Sensitivity analysis provides the ability to execute the model a number of times in order to evaluate the impact of changing one or more decisions or assumptions.
  • Sensitivity analysis begins with a dialog box that prompts for definition of what actions
  • the initial screen includes the model version(s) to use and the input
  • variable(s) to be applied Each selected version or variable is applied independently of other versions or variables. Therefore, if two model versions are selected and run against variables with three alternate values, the automated simulation controller will run six
  • the user may specify up to eight variables and up to ten values per variable.
  • the user may specify a starting point
  • value ending value, and increment.
  • the user may also specify values or percent changes.
  • the user may specify values or time series data. In each case, the user may enter a description for each selection. Results of the sensitivity
  • runs may be compared by displaying the values for one or more outputs presented with
  • Goal Seeking and Optimization Automated goal seeking and optimization (maximize or minimize) functions are supported by means of a multiple iteration controller. The analyst is able to select an
  • Monte Carlo simulation allows the user to specify one or more inputs that vary
  • the program preferably supports several commonly used distributions.
  • the model can then be run many times to
  • the user preferably specifies the input variable(s) to use, what distributions to apply, and
  • the program provides the ability to search for potentiators among the input parameters.
  • the user specifies the output variable that is being tracked, and the program will automatically execute the
  • FIG. 8 illustrates a further aspect of the present invention in which either the
  • modeling environment or a model may be provided within a computer system 200.
  • system 200 includes a main system 202 including a first long term memory 204 that
  • memory for storing the programming environment and various versions of models
  • the main system includes a processor 206, which in some embodiments is a single processor and in other embodiments may be an array of processors configured to process models, equations and
  • main system may not be a single computer system but might also be a number of
  • the main system includes a second memory 210, which functions as a
  • the second memory may include a RAM or other solid state storage workspace and portions of hard disks, as appropriate to include the proper amount, speed and accessibility of memory for the environment, programs and
  • an SDMDB 212 is preferably stored in the second memory as the active SDMDB for the modeling
  • the simulator 214 and integrated compiler 216 are
  • Attached to the main system 202 is at least one display 220 that might be used in
  • an I/O facility attached to the main system 202 is an I/O facility that may include a wide range of input devices, such as a mouse or other pointing device, a keyboard, a network connection and
  • one or more external data storage devices and a wide range of output devices, including a

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Abstract

Un environnement de modélisation du comportement dynamique d'un système comporte une interface utilisateur graphique conçue pour permettre à un responsable de la génération de modèles de définir un modèle au moyen d'entrées graphiques, par exemple en sélectionnant des icônes et en les faisant glisser sur une représentation d'un ordinogramme. Les données et autres informations relatives à un modèle particulier sont stockées dans une structure de type base de données qui permet une organisation efficace des données. Un second éditeur non graphique constitue un outil distinct et séparé d'édition des équations et des autres informations représentatives d'un modèle. Ledit environnement de modélisation du comportement dynamique de modèles permet la définition d'une pluralité de groupes constitués chacun d'un jeu de données représentant un ordinogramme complet et susceptible d'être couplé à un autre groupe définissant une partie du modèle sur la même couche du modèle. L'invention concerne également un environnement de simulation efficace qui permet de déterminer quels groupes sont actifs à l'intérieur du modèle et d'effectuer des simulations uniquement sur ces groupes actifs. Les utilisateurs ont également la possibilité de créer des interfaces utilisateurs personnalisées, ou 'tableau de bord' pour leurs modèles, sans expérience préalable de la programmation. Les utilisateurs ont également accès à des fonctions qui facilitent la création et la sauvegarde de scénarios et de modèles.
PCT/US2000/017793 1999-06-30 2000-06-28 Generateur de modeles du comportement dynamique de systemes et simulateur associe WO2001001206A2 (fr)

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