TWI651666B - Personnel configuration method - Google Patents
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Abstract
一種人員配置的方法,應用於將待分配人員分配至複數工作位置中的其中之一,由包括彼此訊號連接的儲存模組、處理器以及輸出模組的電子裝置執行,此方法包括:利用處理器從儲存模組取得複數歷史資料,各歷史資料包括已分配工作人員之至少一特徵資訊;利用處理器以歷史資料建立生存機率模型;依據前述待分配人員的至少一特徵資訊,利用處理器以生存機率模型取得待分配人員在前述工作位置的生存機率;依據待分配人員在前述工作位置的生存機率,利用處理器判斷待分配人員應配置之工作位置;以及利用輸出模組輸出待分配人員應配置之工作位置。A method for staffing, which is applied to assign one of a plurality of working positions to be assigned, and is executed by an electronic device including a storage module, a processor, and an output module that are signally connected to each other. The method includes: using processing The processor obtains a plurality of historical data from the storage module, each historical data includes at least one characteristic information of the assigned staff; using the processor to establish a survival probability model based on the historical data; according to the at least one characteristic information of the staff to be assigned, using the processor to The survival probability model obtains the survival probability of the person to be assigned in the aforementioned work position; according to the survival probability of the person to be assigned in the aforementioned work position, the processor is used to determine the work position to be assigned to the person to be assigned; and the output module is used to output the position of the person to be assigned. Configured working position.
Description
本發明係關於一種人員配置的方法,特別是一種應用於預測分配至工廠的工作位置的人員的生存機率的方法。The present invention relates to a method for staffing, and in particular, to a method for predicting the survival probability of a person assigned to a work position in a factory.
生產管理中,人員調動分配的優劣會影響員工的生存機率(即在職機率),進而對工廠的產能造成影響。然而,現今的人員調動方式並無一定規則;換言之,當工廠的工作位置有空缺時,是從新進員工中以隨機方式或者依據主觀想法(例如:此工作位置主觀上較適合男性)而隨意挑選一名員工至此工作位置進行工作。因此,此員工在該工作位置的生存機率難以預測,使得工廠的產能不穩定。In production management, the pros and cons of personnel transfer allocation will affect the survival probability of employees (that is, on-the-job probability), and then affect the production capacity of the factory. However, there are no rules for the way people are moved today; in other words, when there are vacancies in the workplace of the factory, they are randomly selected from the new hires or based on subjective ideas (for example: this workplace is subjectively more suitable for men). An employee goes to work at this location. Therefore, it is difficult to predict the survival probability of this employee at the working position, which makes the factory's production capacity unstable.
有鑑於此,需要一種人員配置的方法並藉由其預測結果安排適當的新進人員至工廠的空缺工作位置。In view of this, there is a need for a method of staffing and, based on its prediction results, to arrange appropriate new entrants to the vacant workplaces of the plant.
本發明一實施例提供一種人員配置的方法,應用於將一待分配人員分配至複數工作位置中的其中之一,該人員配置的方法係由一電子裝置執行,電子裝置包括一儲存模組、一處理器以及一輸出模組,儲存模組,處理器以及輸出模組彼此訊號連接,該方法包括:取得對應各工作位置之複數歷史資料,各歷史資料包括一已分配工作人員之至少一特徵資訊;利用處理器以歷史資料建立一生存機率模型;依據該待分配人員的至少一特徵資訊,利用處理器以生存機率模型取得該待分配人員分別在該些工作位置的一生存機率;依據待分配人員在前述工作位置的生存機率,利用處理器判斷待分配人員應配置之工作位置;以及利用輸出模組輸出待分配人員應配置之工作位置。An embodiment of the present invention provides a method for staffing, which is applied to assigning a person to be assigned to one of a plurality of work positions. The method for staffing is performed by an electronic device. The electronic device includes a storage module, A processor and an output module, a storage module, a processor and an output module are signally connected to each other. The method includes: obtaining a plurality of historical data corresponding to each work position, each historical data including at least one characteristic of an assigned worker. Information; using the processor to establish a survival probability model based on historical data; based on at least one characteristic information of the person to be assigned, using the processor to obtain a survival probability of the person to be assigned in each of the work positions using the survival probability model; The survival probability of the assigned personnel in the aforementioned working position, the processor is used to determine the working position to be allocated to the person to be allocated; and the output module is used to output the working position to be allocated to the person to be allocated.
一實施例中,其中,利用處理器判斷待分配人員應配置之工作位置,更包括:依據生存機率以一線性規劃之結果,利用處理器判斷待分配人員應配置之工作位置。In one embodiment, the use of the processor to determine the work positions to be assigned by the processor further includes: using a linear programming result based on the survival probability, the use of the processor to determine the work positions to be assigned by the processor.
一實施例中,利用處理器以歷史資料建立一生存機率模型包括:根據至少一特徵資訊之不同的條件,利用處理器從歷史資料中分別抽取複數樣本群;利用處理器將各樣本群分為複數訓練資料與複數驗證資料;根據各樣本群中的訓練資料,利用處理器分別建立一候選模型;依據各樣本群中的驗證資料的至少一者,利用處理器計算所對應的候選模型的一準確度;以及利用處理器選擇準確度最高的候選模型作為生存機率模型。於一實施例中,準確度是由c-index演算法得到。於一實施例中,條件為歷史資料的範圍、已分配人員的性別資訊、已分配人員的年齡資訊、已分配人員的住宿資訊或上述任意二者以上之組合。In one embodiment, using the processor to establish a survival probability model based on historical data includes: using the processor to separately extract a plurality of sample groups from the historical data according to different conditions of at least one characteristic information; using the processor to divide each sample group into Plural training data and plural verification data; according to the training data in each sample group, a processor is used to establish a candidate model; according to at least one of the verification data in each sample group, the processor is used to calculate one of the corresponding candidate models. Accuracy; and using the processor to select the candidate model with the highest accuracy as the survival probability model. In one embodiment, the accuracy is obtained by a c-index algorithm. In an embodiment, the condition is the range of historical data, the gender information of the assigned person, the age information of the assigned person, the accommodation information of the assigned person, or a combination of any two or more of the above.
一實施例中,利用處理器以歷史資料建立一生存機率模型包括:利用處理器從歷史資料中取出複數訓練資料;利用處理器執行一決策樹演算法,以訓練資料建立生存機率模型,其中決策樹演算法包括複數決策樹,各決策樹包括至少一分支,各分支包括一根節點及對於至少一特徵資訊進行一二元分類所延伸的二葉節點,同一決策樹中的各根節點所進行的二元分類的特徵資訊彼此為不同。In one embodiment, using the processor to establish a survival probability model based on historical data includes: using the processor to extract complex training data from the historical data; using the processor to execute a decision tree algorithm to establish a survival probability model based on the training data, where the decision is made The tree algorithm includes a plurality of decision trees. Each decision tree includes at least one branch. Each branch includes a node and two leaf nodes extended by a binary classification of at least one feature information. The feature information of the binary classification is different from each other.
於一實施例中,利用處理器執行一決策樹演算法,以訓練資料建立生存機率模型包括:於同一根節點,利用處理器執行一檢定演算法以訓練資料計算每一特徵資訊的一檢定值;利用處理器選擇檢定值中最大者所對應的特徵資訊作為一受選特徵資訊;以及以前述受選特徵資訊利用該處理器於該根節點進行二元分類。此外,於一實施例中,檢定演算法為一對數-等級檢定演算法。In one embodiment, using a processor to execute a decision tree algorithm to build a survival probability model with training data includes: performing a verification algorithm at the same root node with the processor to calculate a verification value for each feature information using the training data. Using the processor to select the feature information corresponding to the largest of the test values as a selected feature information; and using the processor to perform binary classification on the root node based on the selected feature information. In addition, in one embodiment, the verification algorithm is a logarithmic-level verification algorithm.
於一實施例中,利用處理器以歷史資料建立一生存機率模型包括:根據至少一特徵資訊之不同的條件利用處理器從歷史資料中分別抽取複數樣本群;利用處理器將各樣本群分為訓練資料與複數驗證資料;利用處理器執行一決策樹演算法,以各樣本群的訓練資料分別建立一候選模型,決策樹演算法包括複數棵決策樹,各棵決策樹包括至少一分支,各分支包括一根節點及對於至少一特徵資訊之其中之一進行一二元分類所延伸的二葉節點,各根節點所進行的二元分類的特徵資訊不同;依據各樣本中的驗證資料的至少一者,利用處理器計算所對應的候選模型的一準確度;以及利用處理器選擇準確度最高的候選模型作為生存機率模型。於一實施例中,條件為歷史資料的範圍、已分配人員的性別資訊、已分配人員的年齡資訊、已分配人員的住宿資訊或上述任意二者以上之組合。In an embodiment, using the processor to establish a survival probability model based on historical data includes: using the processor to extract a plurality of sample groups from the historical data respectively according to different conditions of at least one characteristic information; using the processor to divide each sample group into Training data and complex verification data; using the processor to execute a decision tree algorithm to build a candidate model based on the training data of each sample group, the decision tree algorithm includes a plurality of decision trees, each decision tree includes at least one branch, each The branch includes a node and a two-leaf node extended by performing a binary classification on at least one of the characteristic information, and the characteristic information of the binary classification performed by each root node is different; according to at least one of the verification data in each sample Or, the processor calculates an accuracy of the corresponding candidate model; and the processor selects the candidate model with the highest accuracy as the survival probability model. In an embodiment, the condition is the range of historical data, the gender information of the assigned person, the age information of the assigned person, the accommodation information of the assigned person, or a combination of any two or more of the above.
於一實施例中,利用處理器歷史資料建立一生存機率模型包括:利用處理器將歷史資料分為複數訓練資料與複數驗證資料;利用處理器執行一決策樹演算法,以訓練資料搭配不同的決策樹模型參數分別建立一候選模型,決策樹演算法包括複數棵決策樹,各棵決策樹包括至少一分支,各分支包括一根節點及對於至少一特徵資訊之其中之一進行一二元分類所延伸的二葉節點,各根節點所進行的二元分類的特徵資訊不同;依據驗證資料的至少一者,利用處理器分別計算候選模型的一準確度;以及利用處理器選擇準確度最高的候選模型作為生存機率模型。其中模型參數為二元分類的次數、決策樹的數量、各決策樹中最末端葉節點的資料的最小數量、各決策樹的層數或上述任意二者以上之組合。In one embodiment, using the processor historical data to establish a survival probability model includes: using the processor to divide the historical data into complex training data and complex verification data; using the processor to execute a decision tree algorithm to match the training data with different A candidate model is established for each parameter of the decision tree model. The decision tree algorithm includes a plurality of decision trees. Each decision tree includes at least one branch. Each branch includes a node and a binary classification of one of the at least one feature information. The extended two-leaf nodes have different feature information for binary classification performed by each root node; based on at least one of the verification data, the processor calculates an accuracy of the candidate model separately; and uses the processor to select the candidate with the highest accuracy The model serves as a survival probability model. The model parameters are the number of binary classifications, the number of decision trees, the minimum amount of data of the last leaf node in each decision tree, the number of layers in each decision tree, or a combination of any two or more of the above.
綜上所述,透過本發明實施例所提供的人員配置的方法,可以系統化地配置新進人員至適當的工作位置,進而提升人員在工作位置的在職機率。In summary, through the staffing method provided in the embodiment of the present invention, it is possible to systematically configure new personnel to an appropriate working position, thereby improving the working probability of the personnel in the working position.
請參閱圖1,為本發明一實施例的人員配置的方法的流程示意圖,其具體揭示了本發明的人員配置的方法。所述方法係可應用於預測一待分配人員於複數工作位置中的其中之一的生存機率。在此,工作位置是指工廠中的站位,但並不以此為限,亦可以為工廠中複數個工作站中其中之一個工作站內的站位。Please refer to FIG. 1, which is a schematic flowchart of a staffing method according to an embodiment of the present invention, which specifically discloses the staffing method of the present invention. The method can be applied to predict the survival probability of a person to be assigned in one of a plurality of work positions. Here, the working position refers to a station in a factory, but it is not limited thereto, and it may also be a station in one of a plurality of workstations in the factory.
如圖8所示,人員配置的方法係由一電子裝置80執行。電子裝置80包括儲存模組81、處理器82以及輸出模組83。儲存模組81、處理器82以及輸出模組83彼此透過有線或無線訊號連接。舉例而言,電子裝置80可以是工業電腦、個人電腦、筆記型電腦、智慧型手機、平板電腦等。於此,儲存模組81可以由一個或多個儲存元件所實現。其中,各儲存元件可以是例如非揮發式記憶體、硬碟、光碟、或磁帶等,但在此並不對其限制。處理器82可以由一個或多個處理元件實現。於此,各處理元件可以是微處理器、微控制器、數位信號處理器、微型計算機、中央處理器、場編程閘陣列、可編程邏輯設備、狀態器、邏輯電路、類比電路、數位電路和/或任何基於操作指令操作信號(類比和/或數位)的裝置,但在此並不對其限制。輸出模組可以是螢幕、印表機、語音輸出裝置(例如喇叭),但在此並不對其限制。As shown in FIG. 8, the staffing method is executed by an electronic device 80. The electronic device 80 includes a storage module 81, a processor 82, and an output module 83. The storage module 81, the processor 82, and the output module 83 are connected to each other through a wired or wireless signal. For example, the electronic device 80 may be an industrial computer, a personal computer, a notebook computer, a smart phone, a tablet computer, or the like. Here, the storage module 81 may be implemented by one or more storage elements. Each storage element may be, for example, a non-volatile memory, a hard disk, an optical disk, or a magnetic tape, but it is not limited thereto. The processor 82 may be implemented by one or more processing elements. Here, each processing element may be a microprocessor, a microcontroller, a digital signal processor, a microcomputer, a central processing unit, a field programmable gate array, a programmable logic device, a state device, a logic circuit, an analog circuit, a digital circuit, and / Or any device that operates signals (analogs and / or digits) based on operation instructions, but it is not limited here. The output module can be a screen, printer, or voice output device (such as a speaker), but it is not limited here.
於步驟S10中,利用處理器82從儲存模組81取得每一工作位置之複數歷史資料。表1所示為某工作位置於最近兩年的歷史資料,其包括10位已在此工作位置工作過的工作人員之特徵資訊(性別、年齡、是否住宿)及其個別的生存時間資訊(在職天數、是否已離職)。其中,「性別」欄位、「是否住宿」欄位以及「是否已離職」欄位是用1與0區分(男性/女性、住宿/不住宿、在職/離職)。在職天數指的是工作人員在此工作位置的工作日數,而是否已離職是指工作人員是否已離開此工作位置不再工作。換言之,生存時間資訊包含工作人員被設置於該工作位置的一持續時間。需要說明的是,表1所提供的資訊僅為例示,本發明並不以此為限。舉例來說,工作人員的特徵資訊並不以上述之年齡、性別、是否住宿為限;歷史資料不以兩年為限,且亦可包含此工作位置的工作人員與鄰近工作位置的工作人員的同性別比例、工作人員的學歷或是工作人員的婚姻狀態等資訊。另外,在此被歸類為同一站的複數工作位置的工作內容並不要求完全相同,舉例來說,可以依據工作位置作業時間、人員操作動作及人員操作姿勢(坐姿/站姿)等與工作位置有關的參數的相似度,將具有較高相似度的數個工作位置當作為同一站。In step S10, the processor 82 is used to obtain the plurality of historical data of each work position from the storage module 81. Table 1 shows the historical data of a work place in the past two years. It includes the characteristic information (gender, age, whether or not accommodation) of 10 workers who have worked in this work place and their individual survival time information (on-the-job Days, whether you have left). Among them, the "Gender" field, "Whether or not to stay" field, and "Whether to leave" field are distinguished by 1 and 0 (male / female, accommodation / non-accommodation, employment / resignation). The number of working days refers to the number of working days of the staff member in this working position, and whether the employee has left the service means whether the staff member has left the working position and no longer works. In other words, the time-to-live information includes a duration during which a worker is set in the work location. It should be noted that the information provided in Table 1 is only an example, and the present invention is not limited thereto. For example, the characteristic information of the staff is not limited to the age, gender, whether or not they are staying; the historical data is not limited to two years, and can also include the staff of this work location and the staff of the nearby work location. Information such as gender ratio, staff education, or marital status of staff. In addition, the work content of the plural work positions classified as the same station is not required to be completely the same. For example, the work position can be based on the working time of the work position, the operation operation of the person, and the operation posture of the person (sitting / standing position). The similarity of position-related parameters considers several working positions with higher similarity as the same station.
表1
於步驟S20,利用處理器82以歷史資料建立一生存機率模型。在此並不限制使用生存機率模型的類型,只要能夠準確預測生存機率即可。然而,生存機率模型的準確度會受到模型的種類以及建立模型時所使用的資料參數所影響。於一實施例中,為了使最終採用的生存機率模型具有較高的準確度以產生具可信度的預測結果,於步驟S20時,可進一步計算生存機率模型的準確度。如圖2,可以藉由下述步驟計算準確度而檢驗所使用的資料參數以及生存機率模型的參數,以確保最終的生存機率模型能夠準確預測生存機率(即,具有最高的準確度)。In step S20, the processor 82 is used to establish a survival probability model based on the historical data. The type of the survival probability model is not limited here, as long as the survival probability can be accurately predicted. However, the accuracy of the survival probability model will be affected by the type of model and the data parameters used in building the model. In an embodiment, in order to make the finally adopted survival probability model have higher accuracy to generate a reliable prediction result, in step S20, the accuracy of the survival probability model may be further calculated. As shown in FIG. 2, the data parameters used and the parameters of the survival probability model can be tested by calculating the accuracy by the following steps to ensure that the final survival probability model can accurately predict the survival probability (ie, has the highest accuracy).
首先,於步驟S201中,是根據至少一特徵資訊之不同的條件,利用處理器82從歷史資料中分別抽取複數樣本群。於一實施例中,步驟S201中所述的條件可以是工作人員的年齡範圍;假設今天此工作位置需要重勞力付出而僅考慮30歲以下、28歲以下以及25歲以下的工作人員的歷史資料,因此可以從表1中取得分別對應上述三個條件的三個不同的樣本群。於另一實施例中,步驟S201中所述及的條件可以是歷史資料的時間範圍;詳言之,可以依據一年內以及半年內的歷史資料,從表1取得分別對應上述二個期間內的不同樣本群。另外,條件亦可以是數個特徵資訊的範圍組合;舉例來說,假設今天此工作位置為重勞力性質且需要常態加班,而僅考慮有住宿且為30歲以下、28歲以下或者25歲以下的工作人員的歷史資料,則可從表1取得分別對應上述三個年齡的三個不同的樣本群。此外,條件亦可以為將特徵資訊的數值經過變數處理後再進行範圍的選取;例如先利用四捨五入的方式對歷史資料中的年齡欄位進行變數處理後,再抽取年齡大於25歲的樣本群與年齡大於28歲的樣本群。First, in step S201, the processor 82 is used to extract a plurality of sample groups from the historical data according to different conditions of at least one feature information. In an embodiment, the condition described in step S201 may be the age range of the staff; it is assumed that this work position requires heavy labor and only considers historical data of staff under 30, 28, and 25 Therefore, three different sample groups corresponding to the above three conditions can be obtained from Table 1. In another embodiment, the condition mentioned in step S201 may be the time range of historical data; in detail, the historical data within one year and half a year may be obtained from Table 1 corresponding to the above two periods, respectively. Different sample groups. In addition, the condition can also be a range combination of several characteristic information; for example, suppose that this work position is heavy labor and requires normal overtime, and only considers those who have accommodation and are under 30, under 28, or under 25 For the historical data of the staff, three different sample groups corresponding to the above three ages can be obtained from Table 1. In addition, the condition can also be the selection of the range after the value of the characteristic information is processed through variables; for example, the age field in the historical data is first processed by rounding, and then a sample group older than 25 years old is selected. Sample group older than 28 years.
於步驟S202中,是利用處理器82將各樣本群分為訓練資料與驗證資料。訓練資料用來供後續步驟建立生存機率模型,而驗證資料則是用來驗證生存機率模型的準確度。在此,抽樣方式並不加以限制;舉例來說,可為抽出後須放回的自助抽樣法(Bootstrap method)或者抽出後不再放回的抽樣法。另外,訓練資料與驗證資料的數量(例如人員筆數)可以相同,亦即樣本群中均分為訓練資料與驗證資料;或者訓練資料與驗證資料的數量可為不同。需要說明的是,透過自助抽樣法可以直接決定訓練資料與驗證資料;換言之,於自助抽樣法中,未被抽到的資料即為驗證資料。In step S202, the processor 82 is used to divide each sample group into training data and verification data. The training data is used for the subsequent steps to establish the survival probability model, and the verification data is used to verify the accuracy of the survival probability model. Here, the sampling method is not limited; for example, it can be a bootstrap method that needs to be replaced after extraction or a sampling method that cannot be replaced after extraction. In addition, the number of training data and verification data (such as the number of personnel) can be the same, that is, the sample group is divided into training data and verification data; or the number of training data and verification data can be different. It should be noted that the training data and verification data can be directly determined through the self-service sampling method; in other words, in the self-service sampling method, the data that has not been extracted is the verification data.
於步驟S203中,是依據各樣本群的訓練資料,利用處理器82分別建立一候選模型,以前述三個年齡之例,即是依據不同年齡範圍的樣本群的訓練資料分別建立三個候選模型。In step S203, a candidate model is separately established by using the processor 82 according to the training data of each sample group. Taking the foregoing three ages as an example, three candidate models are respectively established based on the training data of the sample group of different age ranges. .
於步驟S204中,是依據各樣本群中的驗證資料的至少一者,利用處理器82計算所對應的候選模型的一準確度。於此例,前述三個候選模型係分別透過其各自的驗證資料計算模型的準確度。因為這些驗證資料也是來自於與建立候選模型之驗證資料相同的歷史資料,所以將驗證資料中的特徵資訊套入候選模型所產生的生存機率估計值,可與驗證資料中的實際生存時間資訊相比較,可以量化生存機率模型的準確度。在一實施例中,可以透過c-index演算法估算生存機率模型的準確度(c-index的值越接近1越準確)。In step S204, the processor 82 is used to calculate an accuracy of the corresponding candidate model according to at least one of the verification data in each sample group. In this example, the aforementioned three candidate models are respectively used to calculate the accuracy of the model through their respective verification data. Because these verification data are also from the same historical data as the verification data for the candidate model, the estimated survival probability generated by incorporating the feature information in the verification data into the candidate model can be compared with the actual survival time information in the verification data. By comparison, the accuracy of the survival probability model can be quantified. In an embodiment, the accuracy of the survival probability model can be estimated through the c-index algorithm (the closer the value of c-index is to 1, the more accurate).
之後,於步驟S205中,可以利用處理器82選擇準確度最高的候選模型作為生存機率模型,以利後續評估新進人員的生存機率。After that, in step S205, the processor 82 may be used to select the candidate model with the highest accuracy as the survival probability model, so as to facilitate subsequent assessment of the survival probability of the new entrant.
然後,於步驟S30中,可以依據一待分配人員的特徵資訊,利用處理器82以上述生存機率模型而取得此人員在這些工作位置各具有的生存機率。接著,於步驟S40中,是依據待分配人員在上述工作位置的生存機率,利用處理器82判斷待分配人員應配置之工作位置。最後,於步驟S50,再利用輸出模組83輸出此待分配人員應配置之工作位置。Then, in step S30, based on the characteristic information of a person to be assigned, the processor 82 can be used to obtain the survival probability of each person in these working positions by using the above-mentioned survival probability model. Next, in step S40, the processor 82 is used to determine the work position to be assigned by the processor according to the survival probability of the person to be assigned at the above-mentioned work position. Finally, in step S50, the output module 83 is used to output the working position to be allocated by the person to be assigned.
請參閱圖3,係本發明另一實施例,繪示步驟S20的另一細部流程示意圖。與圖2所列舉的實施例不同的地方在於,圖3的步驟S203A為步驟S203的具體實施例。亦即,利用處理器82執行決策樹演算法建立候選模型。舉例而言,決策樹演算法可為隨機生存森林演算法(Random survival forest, RSF),但並不以此為限。Please refer to FIG. 3, which is another detailed flowchart of step S20 according to another embodiment of the present invention. The difference from the embodiment listed in FIG. 2 is that step S203A in FIG. 3 is a specific embodiment of step S203. That is, the candidate tree is established by using the processor 82 to execute a decision tree algorithm. For example, the decision tree algorithm can be a random survival forest (RSF) algorithm, but it is not limited to this.
於決策樹演算法中,是使用複數決策樹建立候選模型。詳言之,係對各樣本群進行複數次抽樣而取得複數組的訓練資料,而後根據每組訓練資料產生一棵決策樹,因此對各樣本群來說,可產生複數棵決策樹。需要說明的是,當採用隨機生存森林(Random survival forest, RSF)演算法建立候選模型時,因為隨機生存森林演算法在取得訓練資料時,是利用自助抽樣法進行抽樣,因而處理器82可能會重複抽取樣本群中的同一筆資料(重複抽樣),所以各樣本群中未被抽樣的資料就會成為驗證資料,於是經由自助抽樣法便可產生訓練資料與驗證資料。舉例來說,對具有10筆資料的一樣本群而言,處理器82於每次抽樣中對此10筆資料以自助抽樣法抽樣,共抽樣5次,所以總共產生5棵決策樹。由於以自助抽樣法抽樣時一般會有重複抽樣的情況,所以每次抽樣的資料筆數不一定相同,因而各棵決策樹所使用的抽樣資料(即訓練資料)亦不一定相同。各決策樹包括至少一分支。並且,同一決策樹中的各根節點所進行的二元分類的特徵資訊彼此為不同。如圖4所示,於一實施例中,決策樹50包括三個分支51/52/53,分支51包括一根節點51a及對於至少一特徵資訊進行一二元分類所延伸的二葉節點51b、51c。類似地,分支52包括一根節點52a(即葉節點51b)及對於至少一特徵資訊進行一二元分類所延伸的二葉節點52b、52c;分支53(即葉節點51c)包括一根節點53a及對於至少一特徵資訊進行一二元分類所延伸的二葉節點53b、53c。同一決策樹中的各根節點51a/52a/53a所進行的二元分類的該特徵資訊彼此為不同。舉例來說,於一次抽樣中是總共10筆資料中抽出了6筆;於圖4中,根節點51a即代表此6筆訓練資料,而根節點51a與葉節點51b、51c之間的路徑則表示對於此6筆訓練資料依據是否住宿的特徵資訊進行的二元分類。換句話說,於建立此一分支的過程中,係針對此6筆訓練資料依據是否住宿的特徵資訊而分類,若當筆訓練資料為有住宿者則歸類於葉節點51b,未住宿者則歸類於葉節點51c。如圖4,分類後有住宿的資料數為2,而沒住宿的資料數為4。在此,係繼續對此二組資料分別再進行一次二元分類。換句話說,在本實施例中,葉節點51b即是分支52的根節點52a,而根節點52a與葉節點52b、52c之間的路徑則表示對於根節點52a的2筆訓練資料依據年齡是否大於或等於27.6歲進行的二元分類;同樣地,葉節點51c即是分支53的根節點,而根節點53a與葉節點53b、53c之間的路徑則表示對於根節點53a的4筆訓練資料依據性別的特徵資訊進行的二元分類。於前述二元分類後,如圖所示,葉節點52b的資料數為1(年齡大於或等於27.6歲),而葉節點52c的資料數為1;葉節點53b的資料數為2(性別為男性),而葉節點53c的資料數為2。需要說明的是,在此雖然以單一決策樹具有三個根節點為例,但本發明並不以此為限。In the decision tree algorithm, a candidate model is built using a complex decision tree. In detail, a plurality of samples are taken from each sample group to obtain training data of a complex array, and then a decision tree is generated based on each group of training data. Therefore, for each sample group, a plurality of decision trees can be generated. It should be noted that when the random survival forest (RSF) algorithm is used to build the candidate model, because the random survival forest algorithm uses the self-help sampling method to obtain the training data, the processor 82 may Repeat the sampling of the same data in the sample group (repeated sampling), so the unsampled data in each sample group will become the verification data, so the training data and verification data can be generated through the self-service sampling method. For example, for the same group of 10 data, the processor 82 samples the 10 data in a self-help sampling method in each sample, sampling 5 times in total, so a total of 5 decision trees are generated. Because there is usually repeated sampling when sampling by the self-help sampling method, the number of data items for each sampling is not necessarily the same, so the sampling data (that is, training data) used by each decision tree is not necessarily the same. Each decision tree includes at least one branch. In addition, the feature information of the binary classification performed by each root node in the same decision tree is different from each other. As shown in FIG. 4, in an embodiment, the decision tree 50 includes three branches 51/52/53, and the branch 51 includes a node 51a and a two-leaf node 51b extended by performing a binary classification on at least one feature information. 51c. Similarly, branch 52 includes a node 52a (ie, leaf node 51b) and two leaf nodes 52b, 52c extended by performing a binary classification on at least one feature information; branch 53 (ie, leaf node 51c) includes a node 53a and The two-leaf nodes 53b and 53c extended by performing a binary classification on at least one feature information. The feature information of the binary classification performed by each root node 51a / 52a / 53a in the same decision tree is different from each other. For example, in a sample, 6 out of a total of 10 data were extracted; in Figure 4, the root node 51a represents the 6 training data, and the path between the root node 51a and the leaf nodes 51b, 51c is Represents the binary classification of the 6 training data based on the feature information of whether to stay. In other words, during the establishment of this branch, the 6 training data are classified according to the characteristic information of whether or not they stay. If the training data is that there is a resident, it is classified as the leaf node 51b. Classified to leaf node 51c. As shown in Figure 4, after classification, the number of data with accommodation is 2, and the number of data without accommodation is 4. Here, the department continues to perform binary classification on the two sets of data. In other words, in this embodiment, the leaf node 51b is the root node 52a of the branch 52, and the path between the root node 52a and the leaf nodes 52b and 52c indicates whether the two training materials for the root node 52a are based on whether they are age Binary classification greater than or equal to 27.6 years old; similarly, leaf node 51c is the root node of branch 53, and the path between root node 53a and leaf nodes 53b and 53c represents 4 training data for root node 53a Binary classification based on gender-specific information. After the aforementioned binary classification, as shown in the figure, the number of data of leaf node 52b is 1 (age is greater than or equal to 27.6 years old), while the number of data of leaf node 52c is 1; the number of data of leaf node 53b is 2 (gender is Male), and the number of leaf nodes 53c is 2. It should be noted that although a single decision tree has three root nodes as an example, the present invention is not limited thereto.
此外,雖然於圖4是依序依據是否住宿、性別以及年齡是否大於或等於27.6歲作為分類的根據,但本發明亦不以此為限。進一步言,於一實施例中,分類的依據及順序可藉由一檢定演算法所決定。圖5所示流程用以說明前述步驟S203A包括:步驟S2031A、步驟S2032A以及步驟S2033A。步驟S2031A:於同一根節點,利用處理器82執行一檢定演算法以訓練資料計算每一特徵資訊的一檢定值;步驟S2032A:利用處理器82選擇檢定值中最大者所對應的特徵資訊作為一受選特徵資訊;以及步驟S2033A:以前述受選特徵資訊利用該處理器於該根節點進行二元分類。以不同類別的特徵資訊對同一組訓練資料進行分類會產生不同的檢定值。舉例來說,以是否住宿對前述6筆訓練資料進行分類所得到的檢定值是5,而以性別對前述6筆訓練資料進行分類所得到的檢定值是2。在另一實施例中,可以同一類別的特徵資訊的不同值對同一組訓練資料進行分類,也會產生不同的檢定值;舉例來說,以年齡是否大於或等於27.6歲對前述6筆訓練資料進行分類所得到的檢定值是8,而以年齡是否大於或等於22.7歲對前述6筆訓練資料進行分類所得到的檢定值是0.7。檢定值是由分類後兩葉節點的數據之間的差異性所決定,當兩葉節點的數據之間的差異性愈高時表示依照此分類規則進行分類是適當的,因而具有較高的檢定值。於一實施例中,檢定演算法是一對數-等級檢定(Log-rank score)演算法。In addition, although FIG. 4 is based on the order of whether to stay, sex, and age is 27.6 years or older as a classification basis, the present invention is not limited thereto. Furthermore, in an embodiment, the basis and order of classification can be determined by a verification algorithm. The flow shown in FIG. 5 is used to describe the foregoing step S203A, which includes: step S2031A, step S2032A, and step S2033A. Step S2031A: At the same root node, use processor 82 to execute a verification algorithm to calculate a verification value for each feature information using training data; step S2032A: use processor 82 to select the feature information corresponding to the largest of the verification values as a Selected feature information; and step S2033A: use the processor to perform binary classification on the root node based on the selected feature information. Classification of the same set of training data with different types of feature information will produce different test values. For example, the test value obtained by classifying the foregoing 6 training materials based on whether to stay is 5 and the test value obtained by classifying the foregoing 6 training materials based on gender is 2. In another embodiment, the same set of training data can be classified with different values of feature information of the same category, and different test values will also be generated. For example, whether the age is greater than or equal to 27.6 years old for the aforementioned 6 training data The test value obtained by classifying is 8 and the test value obtained by classifying the aforementioned 6 training materials based on whether they are 22.7 years or older is 0.7. The test value is determined by the difference between the data of the two leaf nodes after classification. When the difference between the data of the two leaf nodes is higher, it means that classification according to this classification rule is appropriate, so it has a higher test. value. In one embodiment, the verification algorithm is a log-rank score algorithm.
根據以上步驟,當一棵決策樹產生之後,係可以利用尼爾森-艾倫法(Nelson-Aalen method)對此決策樹的每個最末端的葉節點分別依據其中的訓練數據計算一生存函數。生存函數為時間的函數,其顯示生存機率隨著時間增加而衰減;亦即,生存函數僅與訓練資料的生存時間資訊有關。因此,透過生存函數,可以估算一新進人員於到職後第N天的生存機率為何,具體做法如下。在決策樹產生後,將新進人員的特徵資訊代入此決策樹中;換言之,將新進人員的特徵資訊依據決策樹的分類規則進行分類,可得知該人員會被歸類到哪一個最末端葉節點。接著,以此最末端葉節點所對應的生存函數估算其於到職後第N天的生存機率。由於在此決策樹演算法中,具有複數棵決策樹,並且因為每棵決策樹是根據不同的訓練資料所產生,各決策樹中所採用的分類規則與其順序不一定相同。藉此,可以得到多個不同的生存機率估算值,最後再對這些估算值進行平均而取得此新進人員於到職後第N天在工作位置的平均生存機率。According to the above steps, after a decision tree is generated, the system can use the Nelson-Aalen method to calculate a survival function for each leaf node at the extreme end of the decision tree according to the training data in it. The survival function is a function of time, which shows that the survival probability decreases with time; that is, the survival function is only related to the survival time information of the training data. Therefore, through the survival function, it is possible to estimate the survival probability of a new recruit on the Nth day after taking office. The specific method is as follows. After the decision tree is generated, the characteristic information of the newcomer is substituted into this decision tree; in other words, the characteristic information of the newcomer is classified according to the classification rules of the decision tree, and it can be known to which end leaf the person will be classified. node. Then, the survival function corresponding to the end-most leaf node is used to estimate the survival probability on the Nth day after employment. Because there are multiple decision trees in this decision tree algorithm, and because each decision tree is generated based on different training data, the classification rules used in each decision tree are not necessarily the same as their order. In this way, a plurality of different survival probability estimates can be obtained, and finally these estimates are averaged to obtain the average survival probability of the new recruit at the work position on the Nth day after employment.
由於決策樹本身包含決策樹模型參數,例如決策樹的數目、決策樹中最末端葉節點的資料的最小數量、決策樹的層數(圖4的情況為2層)等,為了使最終採用的生存機率模型具有較高的準確度,於另一實施例中,是透過準確度(如前所述之c-index演算法)對這些決策樹模型參數加以選擇。請參閱圖6,相較於圖3,本實施例之方法不根據特徵資訊而從歷史資料抽取樣本群,而可直接採用歷史資料作為樣本群,而省略前述步驟S201,並且是改以不同的決策樹模型參數搭配訓練資料來分別建立候選模型(步驟S203B)。也就是說,各候選模型是使用相同的訓練資料,但使用不同的決策樹模型參數。其餘之步驟S202B、步驟S204B及步驟S205則與前述圖3大致相同,於此不再重複說明。Because the decision tree itself contains the parameters of the decision tree model, such as the number of decision trees, the minimum amount of data on the leaf nodes at the end of the decision tree, and the number of layers in the decision tree (in the case of Figure 4, it is 2 layers). The survival probability model has high accuracy. In another embodiment, these decision tree model parameters are selected through accuracy (such as the c-index algorithm described above). Please refer to FIG. 6. Compared to FIG. 3, the method of this embodiment does not extract sample groups from historical data according to the feature information, but can directly use historical data as the sample group, omitting the foregoing step S201, and using a different method. The decision tree model parameters are combined with the training data to establish candidate models (step S203B). That is, each candidate model uses the same training data, but uses different decision tree model parameters. The remaining steps S202B, S204B, and S205 are substantially the same as those in FIG. 3 described above, and will not be repeated here.
於一實施例中,亦可以先根據至少一特徵資訊之不同的條件利用處理器82從歷史資料分別抽取複數樣本群,之後再利用處理器82執行決策樹演算法,以各樣本群的訓練資料搭配不同的決策樹模型參數分別建立一候選模型。然後再依據各樣本群的驗證資料,利用處理器82分別計算各候選模型的準確度以決定生存機率模型。In an embodiment, the processor 82 may also be used to extract a plurality of sample groups from historical data according to different conditions of at least one feature information, and then use the processor 82 to execute a decision tree algorithm to use the training data of each sample group. A candidate model is established with different decision tree model parameters. Then, according to the verification data of each sample group, the accuracy of each candidate model is calculated by the processor 82 to determine the survival probability model.
表2
表3
表4
上述段落所描述的情況為預測一待分配人員於工作位置的第N天的生存機率。另一方面,若是需要預測的待分配人員的人數與工作位置的數量增加時,可以先由上述方法取得各待分配人員在各工作位置於第N天的生存機率(如表2)。之後,再透過處理器82判斷待分配人員應配置之工作位置。舉例來說,可透過以處理器82執行線性規劃的方式取得待分配人員與工作位置之間的最佳配置(如表4)。換言之,於一實施例中,如圖7,於步驟S30後更包括:步驟S41:利用處理器82依據生存機率以一線性規劃之結果,判斷待分配人員應配置之工作位置;以及步驟S50。表2所示為5個待分配員工與3個工作位置於第50天的生存機率的預測情況,表3是將表2進行代數化後的結果,表4則是對表2進行線性規劃演算後,解得的最佳解。表4中的1代表最終該待分配人員位於此工作位置,0則否。線性規劃演算法可以是分支限制(Branch and bound,Bnb)演算法,其中,可加入一個或多個限制條件。例如:每行的所有x值相加小於或等於1(亦即一個工作位置中只能有一名人員);每列的所有x值相加小於或等於1(亦即一名人員只能被安排到一個工作位置)。藉此,如同表4,可以獲得一最佳配置,以利生產管理的人員配置。The situation described in the above paragraph is to predict the survival probability of a person to be assigned at the Nth day of the work position. On the other hand, if the number of persons to be assigned and the number of work positions need to be predicted to increase, the above-mentioned method can be used to obtain the survival probability of each person to be assigned in each work position on the Nth day (see Table 2). After that, the processor 82 determines the work position to be assigned by the person to be assigned. For example, the optimal configuration between the person to be assigned and the work position can be obtained by performing a linear programming with the processor 82 (see Table 4). In other words, in an embodiment, as shown in FIG. 7, after step S30, the method further includes: step S41: using the processor 82 to determine the working position to be assigned to the person to be allocated according to a linear programming result according to the survival probability; Table 2 shows the prediction of the survival probability of 5 employees and 3 positions on the 50th day. Table 3 is the result of algebraizing Table 2, and Table 4 is a linear programming calculation on Table 2. After that, the best solution is obtained. 1 in Table 4 indicates that the person to be assigned is finally located in this working position, and 0 is not. The linear programming algorithm can be a branch and bound (Bnb) algorithm, where one or more constraints can be added. For example: the sum of all x values in each row is less than or equal to 1 (that is, only one person in a work position); the sum of all x values in each column is less than or equal to 1 (that is, one person can only be arranged To a working position). With this, as in Table 4, an optimal configuration can be obtained to facilitate the staffing of production management.
綜上所述,透過本發明實施例所提供的人員配置的方法,可以系統化地配置新進人員至適當的工作位置,進而提升人員在工作工作位置的在職機率。In summary, through the staffing method provided by the embodiment of the present invention, it is possible to systematically configure new personnel to an appropriate working position, thereby improving the working probability of the personnel in the working position.
雖然上文實施例中揭露了本發明的具體實施例,然其並非用以限定本發明,本發明所屬技術領域中具有通常知識者,在不悖離本發明之原理與精神的情形下,當可對其進行各種更動與修飾,因此本發明之保護範圍當以附隨申請專利範圍所界定者為準。Although the above embodiments disclose specific embodiments of the present invention, they are not intended to limit the present invention. Those with ordinary knowledge in the technical field to which the present invention pertains should not deviate from the principles and spirit of the present invention. Various changes and modifications can be made to it, so the scope of protection of the present invention shall be defined by the scope of the accompanying patent application.
50‧‧‧決策樹50‧‧‧ Decision Tree
51‧‧‧分支51‧‧‧ branch
52‧‧‧分支52‧‧‧ branch
53‧‧‧分支53‧‧‧ branch
51a‧‧‧根節點51a‧‧‧root node
52a‧‧‧根節點52a‧‧‧root node
53a‧‧‧根節點53a‧‧‧root node
51b‧‧‧葉節點51b‧‧‧ leaf node
51c‧‧‧葉節點51c‧‧‧ leaf node
52b‧‧‧葉節點52b‧‧‧ leaf node
52c‧‧‧葉節點52c‧‧‧ Leaf Node
53b‧‧‧葉節點53b‧‧‧ leaf node
53c‧‧‧葉節點53c‧‧‧ Leaf Node
S10‧‧‧利用處理器從儲存模組取得對應各工作位置之複數歷史資料S10‧‧‧ Use the processor to obtain multiple historical data corresponding to each work position from the storage module
S20‧‧‧利用處理器以歷史資料建立一生存機率模型S20‧‧‧ uses the processor to build a survival probability model based on historical data
S201‧‧‧根據至少一特徵資訊之不同的條件,利用處理器從歷史資料中分別抽取複數樣本群S201‧‧‧ uses the processor to extract a plurality of sample groups from the historical data according to different conditions of at least one characteristic information
S202‧‧‧利用處理器將各樣本群分為複數訓練資料與複數驗證資料S202‧‧‧ use the processor to divide each sample group into complex training data and complex verification data
S202B‧‧‧利用處理器將歷史資料分為複數訓練資料與複數驗證資料S202B‧‧‧ uses the processor to divide the historical data into plural training data and plural verification data
S203‧‧‧根據各樣本群中的訓練資料,利用處理器分別建立一候選模型S203‧‧‧ uses the processor to establish a candidate model according to the training data in each sample group
S203A‧‧‧利用處理器執行一決策樹演算法,以各樣本群的訓練資料分別建立一候選模型S203A‧‧‧ uses the processor to execute a decision tree algorithm to build a candidate model based on the training data of each sample group
S203B‧‧‧利用處理器執行一決策樹演算法,以訓練資料搭配不同的決策樹模型參數分別建立一候選模型S203B‧‧‧ uses a processor to execute a decision tree algorithm, and uses training data to match different decision tree model parameters to establish a candidate model
S2031A‧‧‧於同一根節點,利用處理器執行一檢定演算法以訓練資料計算每一特徵資訊的一檢定值S2031A‧‧‧ uses the processor to execute a verification algorithm on the same node to calculate a verification value for each feature information using the training data
S2032A‧‧‧選擇檢定值中最大者所對應的特徵資訊作為一受選特徵資訊S2032A‧‧‧Selects the feature information corresponding to the largest one of the test values as a selected feature information
S2033A‧‧‧以前述受選特徵資訊利用處理器於該根節點進行二元分類S2033A‧‧‧ uses the aforementioned selected feature information to use the processor to perform binary classification on the root node
S204‧‧‧依據各樣本群中的驗證資料的至少一者,利用處理器計算所對應的候選模型的一準確度S204‧‧‧ uses the processor to calculate an accuracy of the corresponding candidate model according to at least one of the verification data in each sample group
S204B‧‧‧依據驗證資料的至少一者,利用處理器分別計算候選模型的一準確度S204B‧‧‧ uses the processor to calculate an accuracy of the candidate model according to at least one of the verification data
S205‧‧‧利用處理器選擇準確度最高的候選模型作為生存機率模型S205‧‧‧ uses the processor to select the candidate model with the highest accuracy as the survival probability model
S30‧‧‧依據一待分配人員的特徵資訊,利用處理器以生存機率模型取得待分配人員分別在複數工作位置的一生存機率S30‧‧‧ According to the characteristic information of a person to be assigned, using a processor to obtain a survival probability of the person to be assigned in a plurality of working positions by using a survival probability model
S40‧‧‧依據待分配人員在上述工作位置的生存機率,利用處理器判斷待分配人員應配置之工作位置S40‧‧‧ According to the survival probability of the personnel to be assigned in the above working position, the processor is used to determine the working position to be assigned to the person to be assigned
S41‧‧‧利用處理器依據生存機率以一線性規劃之結果,判斷待分配人員應配置之工作位置S41‧‧‧ Use the result of a linear programming based on the survival probability of the processor to determine the work position to be assigned to the assigned staff
S50‧‧‧利用輸出模組輸出待分配人員應配置之工作位置S50‧‧‧ Use the output module to output the working position to be assigned
80‧‧‧電子裝置80‧‧‧ electronic device
81‧‧‧儲存模組81‧‧‧Storage Module
82‧‧‧處理器82‧‧‧ processor
83‧‧‧輸出模組83‧‧‧Output Module
[圖1]係本發明一實施例的人員配置的方法的流程示意圖。 [圖2]係本發明一實施例的人員配置的方法的步驟S20的一細部流程示意圖。 [圖3]係本發明一實施例的人員配置的方法的步驟S20的另一細部流程示意圖。 [圖4]係本發明一實施例的人員配置的方法的決策樹的示意圖。 [圖5]係本發明一實施例的人員配置的方法的步驟S203A的細部流程示意圖。 [圖6]係本發明一實施例的人員配置的方法的步驟S20的又一細部流程示意圖。 [圖7]係本發明另一實施例的人員配置的方法的流程示意圖。 [圖8]係應用於執行本發明一實施例的人員配置的方法的電子裝置的功能方塊圖。[FIG. 1] It is a schematic flowchart of a personnel deployment method according to an embodiment of the present invention. [FIG. 2] A detailed flowchart of step S20 of the method for staffing according to an embodiment of the present invention. [FIG. 3] It is another detailed flowchart of step S20 of the method for staffing according to an embodiment of the present invention. 4 is a schematic diagram of a decision tree of a method for staffing according to an embodiment of the present invention. [FIG. 5] A detailed flowchart of step S203A of the method for staffing according to an embodiment of the present invention. [FIG. 6] It is another detailed flowchart of step S20 of the method for staffing according to an embodiment of the present invention. 7 is a schematic flowchart of a personnel deployment method according to another embodiment of the present invention. [FIG. 8] A functional block diagram of an electronic device applied to perform a method for staffing according to an embodiment of the present invention.
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