1378394 九、發明說明： 【發明所屬之技術領域】 待指-種』種預測方法及其電腦程^產品’特別 Ϊ先前技:】彻果之預測方法及其電腦程 -。競賽活動—直是人們的休閒活動之 =者刺激及變化，並且勝利也並非百分之百= 常常合堂=特點’讓人們在欣賞競赛活動之餘， I:;:預測競赛活動的結果，看是否能夠符合本 對於大多數人們預測競赛活動結果的 著主觀的看法，並且常常會偏向於本身 、、方。如此一來，這樣的預測結果通常會與每 上的青兄賽結果產生較大的差異。 、示1378394 IX. Description of the invention: [Technical field to which the invention belongs] The method for predicting the type of the object to be referred to and its computer program ^ special 'previous skills:】 The method of prediction and its computer program. Competitions - people's leisure activities are stimulated and changed, and the victory is not 100% = often together = characteristics 'Let people appreciate the competition, I:;: predict the results of the competition, see Whether it can meet the subjective view of most people predicting the outcome of the competition, and often biased towards itself, the party. As a result, such predictions usually have a large difference from the results of each of the Green Brothers. Show
、因此’在各國競赛活動越來越多，且資訊傳遞發 時，裡’要如何建立—套有效且具實祕的預測機制，以 期能夠提供人們較為精確㈣料動之_結果， 前值得加以思考的方向。 【發明内容】 有鑑於此，本發明所要解決的技術問題在於，在競賽 活動的隊伍及隊員之間，不僅透過原本資料庫中的基本面 數據及技術面趨勢之線型來進行競賽模擬之外，更加入了 依據消息面調整之參數來進行競赛模擬之結果的修正補 償，進而透過圖表來顯示多次模擬的統計結果。藉此，以 5 1378394 更能精確地模擬出實際在進行競賽活動的雙方的對戰結 果，並且達到提供對實際競賽活動之結果進行預測的目的。 為了解決上述問題，根據本發明所提出之一方案，提 供一種競賽活動結果之預測方法，其步驟包括：首先，載 入一記錄資料槽，接著自記錄資料槽中取得該競賽活動之 雙方各自的一基本能力數據，以及各自的一歷史結果均線 趨勢數據，並且再接收一面資料調整參數。於是，依 據競賽雙方的該基本能力數據及該歷史結果均線趨勢數據 來進行一特定次數之雙方競賽模j疑，並且以該消息面資料 調整參數來補償每次競賽模擬之結果，以產生複數個模擬 競賽結果統計值。最後，提供一統計圖表及一發生機率圖 表來顯示該競賽之模擬結果。藉此，以提供實際該競賽活 動結果之預測。 為了解決上述問題，根據本發明所提出之另一方案， 提供一種電腦程式產品，係用以提供競賽活動結果之預 測’該電腦程式產品係内儲·一功能程式’當该電腦載入έ亥 功能程式並執行後，可進行載入一記錄資料檔，接著自記 錄資料檔中取得該競賽活動之雙方各自的一基本能力數 據，以及各自的一歷史結果均線趨勢數據，並且再接收一 消息面資料調整參數。於是，依據競賽雙方的該基本能力 數據及該歷史結果均線趨勢數據來進行一特定次數之雙方 競賽模擬，並且再以該消息面資料調整參數來補償每次競 賽模擬之結果，以產生複數個模擬競賽結果統計值。最後， 提供一統計圖表及一發生機率圖表來顯示該競賽之模擬結 果。藉此，以提供較精確的競賽活動結果之預測。 以上之概述與接下來的詳細說明及附圖，皆是為了能 6 1378394 進一步說明本發明為達成預定目的所採取之方式、手段及 功效。而有關本發明的其他目的及優點，將在後續的說明 及圖式令加以蘭述。 【實施方式】 本發明是在競赛活動的雙方隊伍及隊員之間，透過一 記錄資料檔t所記載的基本面數據及技術面之趨勢線型來 進行，賽模擬’並且再加入了依據消息面數據之參數來進 疑之2的修正補償’藉以能在真實反應實際情 賽活動之’並進而能較精確地提供實際競 式中所提;動:r:便說明起見’本實施例方 ^ j赘動白疋以棒球競賽活動來舉例說明。 ~二2 Ϊ ’為本發明競赛活動結果之預測方法的 貝方&例 >’丨1_程圖。其中，士饮Da 式產品中所内儲的月之預測方法可以是一電腦程 執行後，，㈣^程式’當電腦載人該功能程式並 步驟說明;之步驟。而在進行第-圖的 所提供的功能程式的^人:琴丄為本發明電腦程式產品 式說明將會是以第、二面不思圖’並且以下的實施方 來輔助說明。 _之'机程圖為主軸，而搭配其他圖式 進行測:法的步驟包括:首先， 是直接儲存於房太二:（S101)。其中，資料記錄檔可例如 透過網路連線來載入“腦中，，或者儲存於一網路伺服器而 例如是自動栽入次並且當該功能程式於電腦執行後可 進行載入，在此，;么§己錄檔，或者是由使用者透過手動來 設計上是為可二:_限制。此外’資料記錄檔在實際 ,、記錄資料檔，並且會隨著實際上的競 7 1378394 • · 赛活動完成後來進行更新數據資料。 接著，功能程式10會提供給使用者進行競賽活動之 雙f隊伍的設定（S103)。如第二圖令所示，設定競赛活動 if方隊伍g卩是藉由下㈣選單來選擇設定所要進行預測 之观赛居動的主場（Hom幻隊伍（如A隊）及客場（此⑹隊伍 • ^如B隊）。如此一來，功能程式10便會自記錄資料檔中取 得使用者所設定之雙方隊伍各自的一基本能力數據及各自 的一歷史結果均線趨勢數據（S105)。而附帶一提的是，前 • 述記s錄資料檔在數據資料的記錄方面是會進一步依據一主 /客場差異來記錄每一隊伍各自的基本能力數據及歷史結 果均線趨勢數據。 其中，在基本能力數據方面，可例如是包含有各打者 的打擊率、打點、全壘打數量、得分、上壘率、長打率等， 以及各投手的防禦率、三振數、保送數、投球局數、被安 打數、被全壘打數、平均每局讓打者上壘數等數據，而各 隊貝除了疋依據總平均來記錄之外，也會進一步以主/客場 _ 差異來記錄。而在歷史結果均線趨勢數據方面，則可例如 是包含有實際競賽活動完成後雙方的勝負、得分及失分等 狀況，用來說明該隊伍的近況，如連敗、連勝、連續高比 分、連續低比分等狀況。 . 接著，預測方法再設計是接收一消息面資料調整參數 • 的設定（sl〇6)^其中的消息面資料調整參數是設計為一偏） 移氣(Offset) ’也就是如第二圖中所示的有總分偏移量^ 讓分偏移量之設計。其中，若是總分偏移量，其可例如是 包含有總分加1、零偏移及總分減1等參數；而若是讓分 偏移量，則可例如是包含有主場隊伍加1、零偏移及客場 8 隊伍加1等參數。而消息面資料調整參數的設計的主要目 的即是提供使用者可以依據實際上各隊伍的最新消息，來 進行修正記錄資料檔中所無法即時反應的數據，例如：隊 員受傷、隊員交易之風險、隊員間的相處情況及比賽天候 情形等。 接著，預測方法會再判斷是否進行一戰力分析程序 (S107)，也就是如第二圖所示的是判斷使用者是否有點選 戰力分析選項101。若步驟（S107)的判斷結果為是，則表 示使用者已點選戰力分析選項101，於是會依據雙方各自 的基本能力數據來進行一百分比之比重分配運算，以產生 一百分比差異值（S109)，並且再提供一戰力分析對照表來 顯示該百分比差異值（Sill)。對此，請再同時參考第三圖 為本發明所提供之戰力分析對照表的實施例示意圖。其 中，第三圖實施例是例如以先發戰力、救援戰力、得分能 力、上壘率及長打率等項目來進行雙方的戰力分析，以在 進行百分比之比重分配運算後，列出雙方在該些項目上的 百分比差異值。而第三圖是以長條圖來表示，當然實際設 計上亦可是採用雷達圖等其他表達方式來表示。 而若步驟（S107)的判斷結果為否或者在步驟（S111) 之後，緊接著會進行判斷是否進行一趨勢分析程序 (S113)，而這同樣是如第二圖所示的是判斷使用者是否有 點選趨勢分析選項102。若步驟（S113)的判斷結果為是， 則表示使用者已點選戰力分析選項102，於是會在雙方各 自的歷史結果均線趨勢數據中，利用主/客場差異來取得雙 方各自最近多場比賽的實際競賽結果（S115)，並且再提供 一趨勢分析對照表來顯示該最近多場的實際競賽結果 1378394 ⑸17)。對此，請再同時參考第四圖為 勢分，，的㈣示意圖。其中，第四圖實 == 匕方取一近十％比赛㈣在主場、β隊在客場的最近十 =比赛）的貫際競賽結果之勝負分來進行如顯示，並且依 據邊些落點而得以形成勝負分趨勢。Therefore, 'there are more and more competitions in various countries, and when information is transmitted, how to build it--effective and realistic prediction mechanism, in order to provide people with more accurate (four) feeds, the result is worth The direction to think about. SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION In view of the above, the technical problem to be solved by the present invention is that, in addition to the competition simulation, the team and the players in the competition activity not only perform the competition simulation through the basic data of the original database and the linear trend of the technical trend. The correction compensation based on the parameters of the message surface adjustment is added to the results of the competition simulation, and the statistical results of the multiple simulations are displayed through the graph. In this way, 5 1378394 can more accurately simulate the results of the actual competition between the two parties, and achieve the purpose of providing predictions on the results of the actual competition. In order to solve the above problem, according to one aspect of the present invention, a method for predicting a result of a competition activity is provided, the steps comprising: first, loading a record data slot, and then obtaining the respective sides of the competition activity from the record data slot. A basic capability data, and a historical average trend trend data, and a data adjustment parameter is received. Then, according to the basic capability data of the two parties of the competition and the historical result moving average trend data, a certain number of times of the competition is performed, and the result of each competition simulation is compensated by the message surface data adjustment parameter to generate a plurality of Simulate the statistical results of the competition results. Finally, a statistical chart and a probability chart are provided to show the simulation results of the competition. In this way, to provide a prediction of the actual results of the competition. In order to solve the above problems, according to another aspect proposed by the present invention, a computer program product is provided for providing a prediction of a result of a competition activity, "the computer program product is stored in a function program" when the computer is loaded into the computer After the function program is executed, a record data file can be loaded, and then a basic capability data of each of the competition activities and a historical trend average trend data of each of the competition activities are obtained from the record data file, and a message surface is received again. Data adjustment parameters. Then, based on the basic capability data of the two parties of the competition and the historical result moving average trend data, a two-party competition simulation is performed for a specific number of times, and the result of each competition simulation is compensated by the message surface data adjustment parameter to generate a plurality of simulations. The statistical value of the competition results. Finally, a statistical chart and a probability chart are provided to show the simulation results of the competition. In this way, to provide a more accurate prediction of the outcome of the competition. The above summary, the following detailed description and the accompanying drawings are intended to further illustrate the manner, means and function of the present invention for achieving the intended purpose. Other objects and advantages of the present invention will be described in the following description and drawings. [Embodiment] The present invention performs the simulation of the basic surface data and the technical trend line type recorded in the data file t between the two teams and the team members of the competition activity, and then adds the message based on the message surface. The parameters of the data are used to correct the compensation of the 2's, so that it can be used in the actual response to the actual situation and can be more accurately provided in the actual competition; ^ j 赘白疋 is illustrated by a baseball competition. ~2 2 Ϊ ' is the Bayesian&example>'丨1_图图 of the prediction method for the results of the competition activity of the present invention. Among them, the monthly forecasting method stored in the Da Shi-style product can be a computer program execution, (4) ^ program 'when the computer carries the function program and the steps are explained; In the case of the functional program provided in the first figure, the user's description of the computer program of the present invention will be explained in the first and second aspects, and the following implementations will be explained. The 'machine' diagram is the main axis, and the other diagrams are used for the measurement: the steps of the method include: First, it is stored directly in the room too: (S101). The data log file can be loaded into the brain by, for example, a network connection, or stored in a web server, for example, automatically loaded and loaded when the function program is executed by the computer. This, § § has been recorded, or by the user through the manual design is two: _ restrictions. In addition 'data records in the actual, record data files, and will follow the actual competition 7 1378394 • The update data is updated after the event is completed. Next, the function program 10 provides the user with the setting of the double f team for the competition (S103). As shown in the second figure, the team of the if party is set.卩The next (4) menu is used to select the home theater where the forecast is to be played (Hom squad (such as Team A) and away (this (6) team • ^ such as Team B). As a result, the function program 10 A basic capability data of each team set by the user and a historical trend average trend data (S105) of each of the teams set by the user are obtained from the recorded data file, and it is attached that the data file is in the data. data The record aspect is to further record each team's basic ability data and historical result moving average trend data according to a master/offside difference. Among them, in terms of basic ability data, for example, it may include the strike rate and RBI of each hitter. The number of home runs, scoring, base rate, long-term rate, etc., as well as the defensive rate, the number of strikes, the number of pitches, the number of pitches, the number of hits, the number of home runs, and the average number of hits per game. In addition to the data, each team is recorded in addition to the total average, and will be further recorded by the main/away _ difference. In the historical result trend data, for example, the two parties may include the actual competition. The outcomes of the team, such as winning streak, winning streak, consecutive high scores, continuous low scores, etc. Set (sl〇6)^ where the message surface data adjustment parameter is designed as a partial offset (Offset), that is, as shown in the second figure, there is a total score. The shift amount ^ design of the offset offset, wherein, if it is the total offset, it may include, for example, a total score plus 1, a zero offset, and a total score minus one; and if the offset is, For example, it may include parameters such as a home team plus 1, a zero offset, and an away 8 team plus 1. The main purpose of the design of the message data adjustment parameter is to provide the user with the latest news of each team. Make corrections to the data in the data file that cannot be reacted immediately, for example, the injury of the player, the risk of the player's transaction, the situation between the players, and the weather conditions of the game. Then, the prediction method will judge whether to conduct a force analysis program (S107). ), that is, as shown in the second figure, it is determined whether the user has a little selection of the strength analysis option 101. If the result of the determination in step (S107) is YES, it indicates that the user has selected the strength analysis option 101, and then Performing a percentage distribution calculation based on the respective basic ability data of both parties to generate a percentage difference value (S109), and further providing a war force analysis comparison table to display the percentage Difference value (Sill). In this regard, please refer to the third figure at the same time as a schematic diagram of an embodiment of the combat force analysis comparison table provided by the present invention. The third figure embodiment is, for example, the first strength, the rescue power, the scoring ability, the upper base rate, and the long hit rate, etc., to analyze the combat strength of the two parties, and after the percentage allocation calculation operation is performed, The percentage difference between the two parties on these items. The third picture is represented by a bar graph. Of course, the actual design can also be expressed by other expressions such as radar charts. On the other hand, if the result of the determination in the step (S107) is NO or after the step (S111), it is determined whether or not to perform a trend analysis program (S113), and this is also as shown in the second figure to determine whether the user is A little bit of trend analysis option 102 is selected. If the result of the determination in the step (S113) is YES, it means that the user has clicked the war force analysis option 102, and then the main/away field difference is used in the respective historical result moving average trend data to obtain the respective recent matches of the two parties. The actual competition result (S115), and a trend analysis comparison table is further provided to display the actual competition result of the most recent field 1378394 (5) 17). In this regard, please refer to the fourth picture for the potential points, (4). Among them, the fourth picture is == 匕 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取 取A tendency to win or lose is formed.
3承上’前述的戰力分析對照表及趨勢分析對照表都僅 是依據記錄資料檔來提供給使用者進行參考所選擇之競赛 活動雙方的數據。而在步驟⑸13)的判斷結果為否或者在 步驟（Sin)之後’齡it㈣斷Μ騎雙錢賽模擬 (S119)，也就是如第二圖所示的是判斷使用者是否有點選 雙方模擬競赛選項103。若步驟（S119)的判斷結果為否，3 The above-mentioned war force analysis comparison table and trend analysis comparison table are only provided according to the record data file to the user for reference to the data of both sides of the selected competition activity. And in the step (5) 13), the judgment result is no or after the step (Sin), the "age" (four) breaks the ride and the double money game simulation (S119), that is, as shown in the second figure, it is judged whether the user is a little selected to simulate the competition. Match option 103. If the result of the step (S119) is no,
則表示使用者並無點選雙方模擬競賽選項1〇3，於是繼續 執行步驟（S103)及其爾後的步驟；而若步驟（S119)的判斷 為是，則表示使用者已點選雙方模擬競賽選項103， 方、是便會依據雙方各自的基本能力數據及歷史結果均線趨 f數據來進行一特定次數之雙方競賽模擬，並且再依據消 息面資料調整參數來補償每次競賽模擬之結果，以產生複 數個模擬競賽結果統計值（S121)。而該補償運算即是依據 消息面資料調整參數來對每次競賽模擬之結果進行偏移 (Shift)之運算。 、其中’為了讓預測的結果能夠較為客觀且精確地提供 作為參考依據，本實施例在該特定次數的雙方競賽模擬上 是設計為進行一萬次的雙方競賽模擬，並且進行雙方競賽 $擬所參照的歷史結果均線趨勢數據亦是設計為以最近多 1的貫際競賽結果來做為均線數據，並非以所有歷史實際 競賽結果來做為均線數據’而該最近多場的實際競賽結果 1378394 • »· 從貝驗上來看是以最近三場來做為均線數據是較佳的數 據。此外，前述所產生的模擬競賽結果統計值在設計上是 以肌賽模擬結果的分數差異或分數總和來統計，以提供給 使用者兩種不同的統計結果。 再者’在步驟（S121)之後’預測方法會再依據一預定 設定值來轉換該些模擬競賽結果統計值為複數個模擬競赛 結果機率值（S123)。其中，該預定設定值即是如第二圖中 所示之提供給使用者設定的總分設定值或讓分設定值，以 • 作為轉換運算時的參考點。之後，預測方法會再進一步將 S玄些模擬競賽結果機率值與一價值參數進行運算，以產生 複數個期望值（S125)。而在步驟（S123)及步驟（S125)中分 別所產生的模擬競賽結果機率值及期望值都是進一步在模 擬競赛結果統計值之外所另提供的兩種數據資訊表達態 樣。 最後’則是提供一統計圖表、一發生機率圖表及一期 望值圖表來分別顯示模擬競賽結果統計值、模擬競賽結果 φ 機率值及期望值（S127)。藉由上述統計圖表、發生機率圖 表及期望值圖表的數據資訊提供以完成本實施例用於提供 貫際該競賽活動結果的預測。 承上所述，由於競賽活動的不同，因此在運算所需的 參數、數據資料上也就會有所差異，於是在程式設計上所 . 用來進行競賽模擬的運算方式及演算法則也就會不同。例 如以棒球比賽來講，雙方（A隊及B隊）進行競賽模擬的依 據可以是：A隊（A隊攻擊+B隊防守）以及b隊（B隊攻擊+a 隊防守），並且分別給予比重來進行計算。而在這之中，雙 方的攻擊或防守又是進一步分別依據雙方的基本能力數^ 1378394 及歷史、..。果均、.泉趨勢數據來給予 能力數據中的不同能力參；7配心，亚且基本 算。進而，便可進行雙方也都疋給予不同比重來計 上述運算方式僅是㈣，轉得類結果。而 舉例明並 而關於統計圖表，請再 之統計圖表的實_示音1 ® ’為本發明所提供 提供勝分差（分數^)1二=_之實_是例如以 是以雔方灶盡&、）先汁結果給使用者參考。其中，It means that the user does not click the two-party simulation competition option 1〇3, and then proceeds to the step (S103) and its subsequent steps; and if the determination of the step (S119) is YES, it indicates that the user has selected the two-sided simulation competition. Option 103, Fang, will perform a specific number of two-party competition simulation based on the respective basic ability data and historical result average line f data, and then adjust the parameters according to the message surface data to compensate the results of each competition simulation, A plurality of simulation competition result statistics are generated (S121). The compensation operation is to perform an offset (Shift) operation on the result of each competition simulation based on the message surface data adjustment parameters. In order to make the predicted result more objective and accurate as a reference, the present embodiment is designed to perform a 10,000-time two-party competition simulation on the specific two-party competition simulation, and conduct a two-party competition. The historical average trend data of the reference is also designed to be the average data with the result of the most recent one, not the average of all historical actual competition results' and the actual results of the recent multiple matches 1378394 • »· From the Bayesian point of view, it is better to use the last three games as the moving average data. In addition, the statistics of the simulated competition results generated in the foregoing are designed to be statistically based on the score difference or the sum of the scores of the muscle game simulation results to provide the user with two different statistical results. Further, 'after the step (S121), the prediction method further converts the statistical result of the simulation competition results according to a predetermined set value to a plurality of simulation competition result probability values (S123). The predetermined set value is the total score set value or the handicap set value provided to the user as shown in the second figure, and is used as a reference point for the conversion operation. Then, the prediction method further calculates the probability value of the simulation result and the value parameter to generate a plurality of expected values (S125). The probability values and expected values of the simulated competition results generated in the steps (S123) and (S125) are the two data information expressions further provided in addition to the statistical values of the simulated competition results. Finally, a statistical chart, a probability chart and a look-ahead chart are provided to display the simulation result statistics, the simulation result φ probability value and the expected value (S127). The data information information of the above statistical chart, occurrence probability chart and expected value chart is provided to complete the prediction of the present embodiment for providing the result of the competition. As mentioned above, due to the different competition activities, there will be differences in the parameters and data required for the calculation. Therefore, in the programming, the calculation methods and algorithms used to conduct the competition simulation will also be different. For example, in the case of a baseball game, the two sides (A team and B team) can be based on the following simulations: A team (A team attack + B team defense) and b team (B team attack + a team defense), and respectively given The specific gravity is used for calculation. Among them, the attack or defense of the two sides is further based on the basic ability of both sides ^ 1378394 and history, .. . The average, the spring trend data to give different ability to participate in the ability data; 7 heart, sub- and basic calculation. Furthermore, it is possible to perform different calculations for both parties. The above calculation method is only (4), and the result is transferred. For example, and for the statistical chart, please refer to the actual chart of the statistical chart _ 1 1 'provided by the invention to provide the difference score (score ^) 1 2 = _ real _ is for example, so that the square Do the &, first juice results for the user's reference. among them,
:做為巴：.：峨：擬後主場隊伍減去客場隊伍的勝分差 來做為’而則是為次數，以表示在進行雙方競賽 擬競賽結果統計值)現在各個勝分輯累積統計的次數（模: As a bar:.: 峨: After the proposed home team minus the away team's winning points difference as 'and then for the number of times, to show the statistical value of the results of the competition between the two sides of the competition. Number of times
而§於發生機率圖表，請再參考第六圖，為本發明所 提供之發生機率圖表的實施例示意圖。第六圖之實施例是 例如以預定設定值為基準，提供總分（分數總和）超過預定 設定值的機率給使用者參考，並且超過預定設定值又可進 一步分為大於預定設定值機率及小於預定設定值機率。假 設於第二圖令使用者所設定的總分設定值是為「7. 5」。於 是’第六圖之發生機率圖表中的網點即會落於其中的「7. 5」 之攔位’並且依據模擬競赛結果統計值來分別換算出雙方 分數總和大於及小於預定設定值（總分設定值）的機率。當 然，在發生機率圖表中，更進一步會自動模擬以其他的預 定設定值而來進行轉換，於是使用者亦可看到雙方分數總 和分別超過其他預定設定值的機率。發生機率圖表涵蓋顯 示各種超過及低於預定設定值的機率，可以反映競技雙方 強弱差異以及得分高低的可能性。 而關於期望值圖表，請再參考第七A圖及第七β圖， 12 1378394 為本發明所提供之期望值圖表的實施例示意圖。本實施例 同樣是以總分（分數總和）來做舉例說明，並且是例如以第 六圖所挺供的發生機率圖表來做期望值之預測，以分別進 行運异大於預义設定值（總分設定值）及小於預定設定值 (總分設定值）的期望值。在第七A圖及第七β圖中，縱車由 是以不同的彳貝值參數來設計，橫軸則是以各個總分設定值 來設計，而期望值公式是例如設計為：（期望值=價值參數木 超過總分設定值的機率）。於是便可藉由第六圖中所得的每 一個超過總分攻定值的機率，再搭配價值參數的不同來進 行運算’以獲得第七Α圖及第七β圖所示之大於總分設定 值及小^總^設定值的期望值圖表。而鮮值圖表對於使 用者而言，是提供作為報酬率的參考，以第七A圖舉例來 I，，假設以刚元為投資金額來看，當價值參數是為〇.卵 犄其，進行大於預定設定值「？. 5」的競賽活動（機率即 之^，使用者所能獲得的報酬即為119. 4元，亦即含本 ❿ 盃的t值參數（（1+0. 99)*1〇〇)*機率（0. 6)=期望值 (110. 4)。 / 。玉！旦 能帶—提的是，本發明電腦程式產品具體化的 疋為—電腦可讀取記錄媒體（如：光 碟^或者為—可於網路傳遞之軟體。 更茱及权 M ’本發明之預測方法所欲強調特點在於，是 ㈣來itH料财所記載的基本面數據及技術面趨勢之 線型來進仃競赛模擬，並 ^之 擬之結果的修正補償，=在真匕= 細之結=模擬’並進而_地提供實“ 1378394 惟，以上所述，僅為本發明的具體實施例之詳細說明 •及圖式而已，並非用以限制本發明，本發明之所有範圍應 • 以下述之申諳專利範圍為準，任何熟悉該項技藝者在本發 . 明之領域内，可輕易思及之變化或修飾皆可涵蓋在以下本 . 案所界定之專利範圍。 【圖式簡單說明】 第一圖係本發明競賽活動結果之預測方法的實施例流程 圖； • 第二圖係本發明電腦程式產品所提供的功能程式的操作介 面示意圖； 第三圖係本發明所提供之戰力分析對照表的實施例示意 圖； 第四圖係本發明所提供之趨勢分析對照表的實施例示意 圖； 第五圖係本發明所提供之統計圖表的實施例示意圖； 第六圖係本發明所提供之發生機率圖表的實施例示意圖； • 及 第七A圖及第七B圖係本發明所提供之期望值圖表的實施 例示意圖。 . 【主要元件符號說明】 功能程式10 戰力分析選項101 趨勢分析選項102 雙方模擬競赛選項103 14And § in the occurrence probability chart, please refer to the sixth figure, which is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of the probability of occurrence chart provided by the present invention. The embodiment of the sixth figure is, for example, based on a predetermined set value, providing a probability that the total score (score sum) exceeds a predetermined set value to the user, and exceeding a predetermined set value may be further divided into a probability greater than a predetermined set value and less than The setpoint probability is predetermined. It is assumed that the total score set by the user in the second figure is "7.5". Therefore, the net point in the probability map of the sixth graph will fall in the "7.5" block of the ' and the sum of the scores of the two sides is converted to be greater than or less than the predetermined set value according to the statistical value of the simulation competition result (total The probability of dividing the set value). Of course, in the probability of occurrence chart, the conversion is automatically simulated with other predetermined settings, so that the user can also see the probability that the sum of the scores of the two parties exceeds the other predetermined set values. The probability of occurrence chart covers the probability of showing various levels above and below the predetermined set value, which can reflect the difference between the strengths of the two sides and the possibility of high or low scores. For the graph of the expected value, please refer to the seventh A diagram and the seventh beta diagram, and 12 1378394 is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of the expected value graph provided by the present invention. This embodiment is also exemplified by the total score (sum of scores), and is, for example, the probability of occurrence graph provided by the sixth graph to make the prediction of the expected value, respectively, to carry out the difference larger than the pre-determined set value (total score) The set value) and the expected value less than the predetermined set value (total set value). In the seventh and seventh beta diagrams, the vertical vehicle is designed with different mussel value parameters, and the horizontal axis is designed with each total score setting, and the expected value formula is, for example, designed as: (expected value = The probability parameter value exceeds the probability of the total score setting). Therefore, the probability of each of the total scores obtained in the sixth figure is exceeded, and the operation is performed with the difference of the value parameters to obtain the greater than the total score set as shown in the seventh map and the seventh graph. The value and the expected value of the small ^ total ^ set value chart. The fresh-value chart is provided as a reference for the rate of return for the user, and is exemplified by the seventh chart, I assume that the value parameter is for the investment amount, and when the value parameter is for the egg, A competition activity that is greater than the predetermined set value "?. 5" (the probability is ^, the user can get the reward of 119. 4 yuan, that is, the t-value parameter containing the ❿ cup ((1+0. 99) *1〇〇)* probability (0.6) = expected value (110. 4). / Jade! Can bring - mention that the computer program product of the present invention is embodied in a computer-readable recording medium ( For example, the optical disc ^ or the software that can be transmitted on the network. The more the right and the right M' The prediction method of the present invention is characterized by the fact that it is (4) the basic data and the technical trend of the ITH. To enter the competition simulation, and to correct the compensation of the result of the simulation, = in the true = fine knot = simulation 'and then provide the real" 1378394 However, the above is only a specific embodiment of the present invention The detailed description and the drawings are not intended to limit the invention, and all the scope of the invention should The scope of the patent application is subject to the scope of the patent application. Any change or modification that can be easily considered in the field of this invention can be covered by the patent scope defined in the following. The first figure is a flow chart of an embodiment of a method for predicting the results of the competition activity of the present invention; • the second figure is a schematic diagram of the operation interface of the function program provided by the computer program product of the present invention; the third figure is the combat force provided by the present invention. A schematic diagram of an embodiment of an analysis comparison table; a fourth diagram is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of a trend analysis comparison table provided by the present invention; a fifth diagram is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of a statistical chart provided by the present invention; Schematic diagram of an embodiment of the probability of occurrence chart; and Figures 7A and 7B are schematic diagrams of embodiments of the expected value chart provided by the present invention. [Key element symbol description] Function program 10 Force analysis option 101 Trend analysis Option 102 Both sides of the simulation contest option 103 14