RU2490675C1 - Method of determining earthquake precursor - Google Patents

Abstract

FIELD: physics.SUBSTANCE: electrostatic anomaly signals are measured by a network of seismic stations with selection of control areas. Energy and space-time parameters of the control areas and directivity of the development of the seismic process are determined. Migration of local regions of seismic activity is detected, the change in parameters of which determines the location and size of the imminent earthquake in the seismically active area. Seismic stations are provided with a means of probing the earth's crust with a frequency range of 0.01-1000 Hz, which is placed at a given depth in the earth's crust. The network of seismic stations is placed on the transcontinental fault system. When carrying out the method, electromagnetic earthquake precursors are determined using ground stations and at least one seismic station located on a space orbit. Furthermore, high content of radon in underground water and high content of hydrogen on fault lines are taken as earthquake precursors. In sea-washed regions, bottom stations are mounted at the sea bottom to measure temperature, bottom flow rate, bottom pressure, sound speed in water, concentration of hydrogen ions and the constant magnetic field. The bottom stations are mounted in coastal areas of continental borderlands, mid-ocean ridges and bottom mud volcanoes.EFFECT: high reliability of probabilistic forecast of earthquakes.

Description

The invention relates to geophysics in terms of the study of physical phenomena occurring in the earth's crust, on its surface and in near-Earth space, and can be used to assess the possibility of adverse, including catastrophic, natural and man-made phenomena.

A method for determining an earthquake precursor is claimed. The method includes measuring signals of electrical anomalies by a network of seismic stations with the allocation of control zones, determining their energy and spatio-temporal parameters and the direction of development of the seismic process, detecting the migration of local areas of seismic activity, the change in the parameters of which judge the location and magnitude of the impending earthquake in the seismically active zone. The signals of electrical anomalies are measured taking into account the amplitudes of the resonance frequency in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide at fixed frequencies with the placement of at least one of the seismic stations in space orbit. The determination of the energy and space-time parameters and the direction of development of the seismic process is carried out at the moments when the frequency of the time course of the sinusoidal periodic process is comparable with the frequency of the cyclic measurement time. The migration of local areas of seismic activity is detected taking into account the concentration of radon in groundwater and hydrogen above the fault line in the selected control zones. Effect: increase the reliability of the forecast of earthquakes.

The invention relates to the field of geophysics, and more particularly to seismology, and in particular to methods for predicting earthquakes.

Known methods for predicting earthquakes (SU No. 1444688, SU No. 1444689 [1, 2]) include monitoring the propagation of elastic waves artificially excited by explosions or shock and vibration generators using seismographs (SU No. 1300093, SU No. 1469481 [3, 4 ]), with the registration of elastic vibrations through several channels, consisting of a group of geophones, connected by wires to a central registration point, which houses amplifiers, frequency filters, a recorder (magnetic or optical) and a control panel.

A disadvantage of the known methods is the limitation of the geography of the controlled areas, due to the location of the seismograph and its range.

To increase the coverage of controlled areas, seismographs are usually installed on cars, which also has limitations in the geography of controlled areas, due to the terrain.

There is also a method of registering an electrical earthquake precursor (SU No. 1300394 [5]), in which the components of the electric field strength of the DC supply dipole are received by receiving dipoles, in which, to expand the dynamic range of measurement, the supply and receiving dipoles are located on a site where the vertical coefficient anisotropy "m" satisfies the relation 1 <m <3. In this case, the supply dipole is positioned so that its axis is oriented at an angle of 45 degrees to the direction of the strike of the anisotropic rocks, the azimuthal receive dipoles are in azimuths of 90, 30 and -60 degrees relative to the axis of the feed dipole, and the radial receive dipole is in azimuth - 120 degrees, carrying out simultaneous regular measurements of the components of tension, and judging by the simultaneous change in all measured values by more than 50% or by changing their signs simultaneously, the presence of earthquake.

When implementing this method, it is possible to expand the dynamic range by the corresponding arrangement of dipoles. However, this method is applicable only in limited areas where the anisotropy value "m" satisfies the condition 1 <m <3. Satisfying this condition requires additional preliminary work to identify such zones. In addition, this method is burdened by subjective errors and has a forecast accuracy of not more than 50%.

There is also a known method for earthquake prediction, consisting in the fact that in the controlled region, at spaced points, measure the temporal variations of the horizontal components of the geophysical field vector, filter them, highlighting the variation due to the center of the impending earthquake, diagnose the appearance of disturbances lasting 2-10 minutes as a precursor of earthquakes, by the amplitude of the precursor determine the energy class of the upcoming earthquake, by the ratio of the amplitudes of the components of the precursor determine the bearing on the ep the center of the upcoming earthquake, using bearings at various points to determine the location of the epicenter, give a temporary earthquake forecast from 1 hour to 7 days, in which to increase the reliability and efficiency of forecasting, measure the variations of the horizontal components of the geomagnetic field, filter low-frequency variations with periods longer than 1 hour, as the precursor is diagnosed with the appearance of a series of disturbances in the form of sinusoidal oscillations with pauses from 1 minute to 1 hour with an oscillation period increasing from 0.3-0.5 to 3.5-4.0 in the middle of the disturbance It decreases again by the end to 0.3-0.5 s (SU No. 1721563 [6]).

In this method, the measurement of time intervals of variations of the horizontal components of the vector of the geomagnetic field increases the reliability of the forecast compared to methods [1-4]. However, this method also has limitations on the geography of the controlled areas, due to the location of the measuring points in the controlled region, and is burdened by laborious calculations for linking time intervals.

In addition, in order to increase the efficiency of seismic studies by known methods, obtaining a reliable forecast requires strict observance of the signal-to-noise ratio and increasing the resolution of seismic records, which is achieved by a method that includes exciting seismic oscillations in the frequency range with an upper frequency Fmax1, their reception by linear groups of geophones with base L and the distance between the geophones X, registration using a seismic station with a maximum frequency of the recording path Fmax2, in which ohm step X between the geophones in the group is selected from the relation X * <V * min1 / Fmax2, where V * min1 is the minimum apparent velocity of the received seismic waves, and the base L is selected from the relation L <= V * min2 / 2Fmax2, where V * min2 is the minimum apparent velocity of the useful waves, and to preserve the statistical effect of the group, the upper frequency of the range of excited oscillations Fmax and the maximum frequency of the recording path of the seismic station Fmax1 are selected from the relation Fmax1 <= Fmax2 <V * min / 2R.sl, where R.sl is the correlation radius of random noise (SU No. 1712920 [7]).

This method also has a limitation of the geography of the controlled areas and is burdened by the fulfillment of the conditions for strict observance of geometric quantities. In the method of vibroseismic exploration, based on the excitation of a seismic vibrations by a vibration source using scanning signals, in which the maximum frequency Fmax is set, the vibrations are received and digitally recorded on a magnetic medium with a pull speed determined by the frequency fq. quantization, in which to increase the resolution, the maximum frequency of the sweep signal is set from the condition Fmax <= 0.36 fq (SU No. 1712919 [8]).

Due to the exclusion of strict observance of geometric quantities and the exclusion of a number of conditions, this method improves the reliability of the forecast compared to the method [7], but it also has limitations in the geography of the controlled areas, due to the location of the measuring points in the controlled region.

The aforementioned drawbacks are deprived of the method of earthquake prediction (SU No. 1171737 [9]), which includes a number of sequentially spaced sequential series of measurements of electromagnetic field strength, in which simultaneous measurements of the magnetic and electric components of the field of low-frequency radiation of near-Earth plasma in motion at heights of the upper ionosphere are then eliminated from consideration, the region of the inner boundary of the external radiation belt and the adjacent part of the gap between the radiation belts, as well as the artificial radiation, and the existence of seismic hazardous sources is judged by the presence of stable observation zones of induced radiation of the ionospheric plasma, exceeding by at least 12-20 dB the background level of natural radiation, usually observed in this area of space.

The accuracy of this method and its noise immunity are aggravated by the need to exclude from the measurement results the influence of flows of charged particles intruding into the near-Earth space due to ejection by active regions of the sun, as well as the need to bind the measurement time intervals. There are also known methods for predicting an earthquake by electromagnetic radiation (SU No. 1376766, SU No. 1454103 [10-11]). In the method [10], the electromagnetic field parameters are measured, the time of the earthquake onset is determined from the anomalous change and the rate of change of the measured predictive parameter, for which radiation and reception of the electromagnetic wave passing through the region of the proposed earthquake are produced, and the difference between the frequencies and phases of the radiated and the received signal.

In contrast to the method [10] in the method [11], which includes emitting electromagnetic monochromatic microwave oscillations, the electromagnetic radiation transmitted through the studied region is received, its parameters are measured, which are used to judge the time of the earthquake, in which monochromatic radiation is produced to increase accuracy Microwave oscillations of a rectangular-shaped modulated pulse in the form of a sequence of radio pulses of a given duration, measure the duration of the received radio pulse and the duration difference The radiated and received radio pulses judge the time of the earthquake.

The use of electromagnetic radiation can improve the accuracy of the measured parameters, which predict the time of the earthquake. However, noise immunity is largely determined by the distance from the epicenter to the epicenter to the base point and the terrain.

For predicting earthquakes, other methods are also known based on the use of electromagnetic phenomena preceding and accompanying earthquakes (SU No. 499543 [12], SU No. 913311 [13], SU No. 1080099 [14], SU 1171737 [15], SU No. 1193620 [16]; RU No. 1806394 [17], RU 2037162 [18]). Among these phenomena is an abnormally high-frequency electromagnetic radiation caused by a change in the fracture structure of the deformable material of the lithosphere at the stage of the onset of fracture. However, reliable measurements and identification of seismogenic disturbances of the Earth’s electromagnetic field are hindered by the high level of its natural and technogenic variations due to thunderstorm activity, ionospheric disturbances, radio communications and other factors. In addition, these methods relate to short-term methods, and therefore, for their effective use and separation of the prognostic signal, it is important to preselect seismically dangerous time periods, which is problematic.

There are also known methods for predicting an earthquake by measuring the power of low-frequency fluctuations of the vertical and horizontal components of the earth's electrostatic field strength (SU No. 1290889, SU No. 1182462, SU No. 1331284, SU No. 1347741, SU No. 1347742 [19-23]) or by measuring the power of the infra-low-frequency component current in the earth's crust (SU No. 1349595 [24]) with their subsequent processing by comparing the ratio of the fluctuation power of the horizontal component of the Earth’s electric field to the fluctuation power of the vertical component at the epicenter and AZOV point or by calculating the cross-correlation range for which the intensity is judged in the expected epicenter.

These methods are burdened by the complexity of processing low-frequency (5-600 Hz) oscillations with a duration of 100 ms or less, which should be distinguished against the background of high-frequency tonal components in the frequency range of 1.5-5 kHz, which requires a collection of significant statistical data arrays and their processing to obtain the necessary degree of reliability of the forecast.

There is also a method of detecting the possibility of the onset of catastrophic phenomena (RU No. 2030769 [25]), in which continuous monitoring of a geophysical field parameter that changes over time is carried out, the period and frequency of its oscillations are determined, the amplitude of the monitored parameter is measured, and the conclusion about the possibility of catastrophic events is made if a sinusoidal oscillation process with a period from 100 to 1,000,000, having an oscillation amplitude, is found to be statistically significant in a change in the geophysical field parameter truly different from the background value for a given area. Reliable measurements and identification of seismic disturbances are hampered by the high level of its natural and technogenic variations due to thunderstorm activity, ionosphere disturbances, radio communications and other factors. In addition, this method refers to short-term methods, and therefore, for its effective use and separation of the prognostic signal, it is important to preselect seismically dangerous time periods, which is problematic.

There is also a known method for predicting earthquakes, including the simultaneous recording of pressure and temperature in the atmosphere, determining at each selected point the sum of the increments in the amplitudes of the pressure and temperature functions over time, identifying a zone with values of the specified parameter that is not equal to zero, and judging the time of the earthquake from the time of occurrence of these zones, about the place of the earthquake - according to the spatial position of such zones, in which, in one of the points of the seismically dangerous region, changes in the new atmospheric regime according to regular measurements of the total atmospheric ozone in a moving time window using the Fourier analysis, compare the nature of the seismogenic frequency ranges in the operational ozonometry data, previously determined from archive data, with the reference seismogenic trends of high frequencies activation against the background of low frequency decay , which makes it possible to isolate seismically dangerous periods of time and to clarify the time of the earthquake, and by the clarity of the manifestation of these effects and their duration - the magnitude of the earthquake, according to the spatial structure of the spectral effects — the position of the epicentral zone (RU No. 2170448 [26]). The method is burdened by significant errors due to the use of the Fourier analysis against the background of the influence of meteorological factors. When using Fourier analysis, i.e. the studied processes are represented as a superposition of harmonic oscillations in the form of a Fourier series, which, for example, when determining the oscillation of seismic waves can introduce an additional error, since the sum of two periodic oscillations can be a non-periodic function, for example, when adding two sinusoidal oscillations with incommensurable frequencies, when As a result of their addition, a complex non-periodic oscillation can be obtained.

There is also known a method for the long-term forecast of earthquakes by a network of seismic stations in a seismically active zone, determining their energy and spatio-temporal parameters and the direction of development of the seismic process, in which, to increase the reliability and accuracy of a long-term forecast, registration is carried out by at least four seismic stations uniformly located along adjacent control zones in which the seismic process development is determined, the migration of local regions is revealed seismic activity and the change in the speed and direction of migration of these areas judge the location and magnitude of the impending major earthquake in the seismically active zone (SU No. 1628026 [27]).

In this method, determining the direction of development of the seismic process with the processing of signals received at four stations, improves the reliability of the forecast. However, the accuracy and reliability of this method is burdened by disturbances from the re-reflection of signals due to the terrain. As a prototype, a method for earthquake prediction was selected, including measuring the signals of electrical anomalies by a network of seismic stations with the allocation of control zones, determining their energy and spatio-temporal parameters and the direction of development of the seismic process, identifying the migration of local areas of seismic activity, by changing the parameters of which they judge the location and the magnitude of the impending earthquake in the seismically active zone, in which the measurement of electrical anomaly signals is performed with taking into account the amplitudes of the resonance frequency in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide at fixed frequencies, with the placement of at least one of the seismic stations in space orbit, the determination of the energy and space-time parameters and the direction of development of the seismic process is carried out at times when the frequency of the temporal course of the sinusoidal periodic process will be commensurate with the frequency of the cyclic measurement time, and the migration of local areas of seismic activity is detected taking into account the concentration of I radon in groundwater and hydrogen over a fracture line in the selected control zones (RU №2269145 [28]).

Measurement of electrical anomaly signals by changing the amplitudes of the resonance frequency in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide at fixed frequencies with the placement of at least one of the seismic stations in space orbit, determining the energy and space-time parameters and the direction of development of the seismic process at times when the frequency of the time course of the sinusoidal the process is commensurate with the frequency of the cyclic measurement time, and the migration of local areas of seismic activity is detected taking into account the concentration radio radon in groundwater and hydrogen over a fracture line in the dedicated control areas improves the accuracy of the prediction.

In this method, the measurement of electrical anomaly signals by ground stations is made taking into account the amplitudes of the resonance frequency in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide at fixed frequencies of 7.8; 14.4 and 20.3 Hz, which have a significant increase in amplitude compared to other frequencies, and a station located in the space orbit of measurement is recorded in the infra-low frequency range with a characteristic maximum in the region of the first resonant frequency of 6-8 Hz.

In this case, the maximum values of the amplitude are determined by the harmonic component of the electromagnetic wave bounded along the surface contour, which is determined by the amplitude A, the angle q, the period T based on the dependence Amax (t) = Acos (qt-g),

where g is the angular velocity of the harmonic wave, t is a fixed point in time.

Moreover, the values of Amax (t) are determined for several points with real planned coordinates directed to the east and north, limited along the contour of the terrain taking into account the height of the sea level for each point.

The maximum amplitude values for a sequential set of discrete time values determine the oscillation amplitudes of the harmonic component of the electromagnetic wave at fixed frequencies, which determine the time of the earthquake.

After the time of the earthquake is established, the migration of local areas (zones) of seismic activity is detected by measuring the concentration of radon in groundwater, since breaks in the underground rocks can be preceded by a breakdown of their crystalline structure, when radon gas enters the groundwater through gaps, as well as by measurements hydrogen concentration, since gaseous hydrogen may be released above the fault line, exceeding 10 times the concentration under normal conditions.

The analysis of the measured energy and space-time parameters is performed at the moments when the frequency of the time course of the sinusoidal periodic process is comparable with the frequency of the cyclic measurement time, since the nature of the periodicity of the real and measured processes is different. The reason for the difference is the cyclical nature of the measurement time. One and the same process can be both periodic and non-periodic in different cyclic times of measurement. Since the time course of even a sinusoidal periodic process is periodic only if its frequency is comparable with the frequency of the cyclic system of the measurement time, and in all other cases the measurements give a non-periodic process, then to increase the accuracy of the forecast, the analysis of the measured parameters is performed for cases when the frequency of the time course of the sinusoidal The periodic process is commensurate with the frequency of the cyclic measurement time. The time of the earthquake is determined by the grid method. Since the analysis of the measured parameters is performed for a sequential set of discrete values of time, the obtained maximum values of the amplitudes make it possible to determine the vibration amplitudes of the harmonic component of the electromagnetic wave at the grid nodes. A significant advantage of the proposed technical solution is that when it is implemented, the analyzed parameters are decomposed into their physical elements, which allows you to set the boundaries of the analogy, formalize the initial information to make a forecast into a form convenient for computer processing based on the given values of harmonic constants for terrain with any terrain.

However, an important aspect in the prediction of earthquakes is the possibility of predicting the possibility of a potential earthquake as early as possible, which is partially provided by known methods.

In addition, due to the geotectonic features of the Earth, most earthquakes occur under the bottom of the seas and oceans (Geoecological monitoring of offshore oil and gas / L.I. Lobkovsky, D.G. Levchenko, A.V. Leonov, A.K. Ambrosimov // M .: Nauka, 2005, p. 82-83 [29]). At the same time, bottom seismic activity is concentrated in the coastal zones of the continental margins, island arcs, and mid-ocean ridges. Remote marine earthquakes are recorded by ground-based seismometers with large errors in determining the depths of hypocenters, planned coordinates and magnitudes, and weak earthquakes are practically not recorded. Moreover, the manifestations of seismic activity at the bottom of the water areas are significantly different from the ground. Most of them occur unnoticed by an outside observer. However, they lead to large changes in the aquatic environment at the bottom. Even relatively weak bottom earthquakes cause the so-called "liquefaction of the soil", which sets in motion large masses of bottom sediments with relatively small slopes of the bottom (2-3 degrees). High seismicity causes, under the influence of gravity, an avalanche of sedimentary masses from the upper part of the continental slope. In some areas of the foot of the slopes, landslide masses make up 50-80%. The processes of avalanche sedimentation can be accompanied by large landslides of great destructive power. So, the gathering of an underwater earthquake due to an earthquake in 1929 in the Greater Newfoundland Bank area caused a displacement of bottom masses over an area of more than 100 thousand square kilometers.

At the bottom of the oceans there is a continuous exchange of water masses with the crust of the Earth. With an increase in intracrustal pressure, which can occur, for example, during the preparation of a strong earthquake, the fluids contained in the pores of the crust are “squeezed” into the bottom layer, causing a significant change in its properties. On land, this phenomenon leads to an increase in the level of groundwater in wells and is one of the signs for predicting earthquakes.

Marine earthquakes lead to local changes in the temperature of the water column, which was noted during observations of the water surface.

To record geophysical and hydrochemical parameters in the bottom layer of the oceans, bottom stations are used that contain the following main instruments: a three-component digital seismograph with recording frequencies of 0.03-40 Hz, an acousto-optic spectrometer of the visible wavelength range (415-800 nm), a speed and direction meter currents, water temperature meter. pressure meter, water conductivity meter, constant magnetic field magnetometer, gamma spectrometer and hydroacoustic module for communication with the supply vessel and bottom positioning (Geoecological monitoring of offshore oil and gas bearing waters / L.I. Lobkovsky, D.G. Levchenko, A.V. Leonov, A.K. Ambrosimov // M .: Nauka, 2005, p.97-100 [29]). In this case, the temperature of the water, the speed of sound in water, the pressure at the bottom, the velocity of bottom currents and the concentration of hydrogen ions pH are measured by means of the bottom station. The obtained measurement results are processed and make a judgment about the possibility of an impending earthquake.

The objective of this proposal is to increase the reliability of the probabilistic forecast of an earthquake.

The problem is solved due to the fact that in the method for determining the precursor of an earthquake, which includes measuring the signals of electrostatic anomalies by a network of seismic stations with the allocation of control zones, determining their energy and space-time parameters and the direction of development of the seismic process, identifying the migration of local areas of seismic activity, by changing whose parameters are judged on the location and magnitude of the impending earthquake in the seismically active zone, while determining Electromagnetic earthquake precursors are performed taking into account the amplitudes of the resonance frequency in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide at fixed frequencies with at least one of the seismic stations located in space orbit, determining an increased radon content in groundwater as a precursor of an earthquake, and identifying an increased hydrogen content as an earthquake precursor on the fault lines, in which the definition of energy and space-time parameters and the direction of development of this namic process produces at the instants when the frequency of the time variation of the sinusoidal periodic process is commensurate with the frequency of the cyclic measurement time, the measurement of the electrical signal anomalies produce ground stations at fixed frequencies 7.8; 14.4; 20.3 Hz, and a station in space orbit records measurements in the infra-low-frequency range in the region of the first resonant frequency, while the maximum amplitude values are determined by the harmonic component of the electromagnetic wave bounded along the surface contour, and the maximum amplitudes are determined for several points with material or planned coordinates, taking into account the height of the sea level for each point, while in the regions washed by the seas, bottom stations are installed on the seabed for measurements of temperature, velocity of bottom currents, bottom pressure, sound velocity in water, concentration of hydrogen ions pH and a constant magnetic field, in contrast to known methods, ground stations are additionally equipped with means for sensing the crust in the frequency range of 0.01-1000 Hz, which established at a given horizon in the depth of the earth's crust, a network of ground-based seismic stations installed along the transcontinental fault system, in the regions washed by the seas, bottom stations installed in the coastal zones of the continental At the outskirts, island arcs, mid-ocean ridges and foothills of mud volcanoes, the determination of the spatio-temporal parameters and direction of development of the seismic process is carried out by cross-correlation analysis.

The proposed method for determining the earthquake precursor is based on the analysis of the measurement results recorded on the bottom of Avacha Bay, before the earthquake and at the time of the earthquake 08/07/1999 (Geoecological monitoring of offshore oil and gas bearing waters / L.I. Lobkovsky, D.G. Levchenko, A.V. Leonov , A.K. Ambrosimov // M .: Nauka, 2005, p.22-24 [29]).

An analysis of the results of recorded underwater earthquakes with a magnitude of 4-5 with a hypocenter depth of 35-40 km showed the following.

8 days before the earthquake, the current velocity increases and in seven days reaches a maximum (from 0.05 m / s to 0.15 m / s). At the same time, the pH indicator changes stepwise, but stably relative to the average level, the water temperature, the speed of sound and the pressure at the bottom begin to rise slowly and synchronously.

Five days before the earthquake, the velocity of the bottom current sharply decreases (from 0.15 m / s to 0.05 m / s and less), and the pH rises sharply (from 7.2 to 7.6), while the water temperature sound speed and pressure at the bottom continue to increase monotonously and synchronously (Geoecological monitoring of offshore oil and gas areas / L.I. Lobkovsky, D.G. Levchenko, A.V. Leonov, A.K. Ambrosimov // M .: Nauka, 2005, p.22-24 [29]). Three days before the earthquake, the pH drops sharply, while the water temperature, sound velocity and bottom pressure continue to increase monotonously and synchronously.

The technical essence of the method is as follows.

The signals of electrical anomalies are measured by ground stations, as in the prototype [28], taking into account the amplitudes of the resonance frequency in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide at fixed frequencies of 7.8; 14.4 and 20.3 Hz, which have a significant increase in amplitude compared to other frequencies, and a station located in the space orbit of measurement is recorded in the infra-low frequency range with a characteristic maximum in the region of the first resonant frequency of 6-8 Hz.

In this case, the maximum values of the amplitude are determined by the harmonic component of the electromagnetic wave, limited along the surface contour, which is determined by the amplitude A, the angle q, the period T based on the dependence Amax (t) = Acos (qt-g), where g is the angular velocity of the harmonic wave , t is a fixed point in time. Moreover, the values of Amax (t) are determined for several points with real planned coordinates directed to the east and north, limited along the contour of the terrain taking into account the height of the sea level for each point.

In contrast to the prototype [28], ground stations are additionally equipped with means for sensing the earth's crust with a frequency range of 0.01-1000 Hz, set at a given depth of the earth's crust.

A means of sensing the earth's crust with a frequency range of 0.01-1000 Hz is a seismic complex, including bicycle sensors with a range of recorded frequencies of 0.01-20 Hz, 05, -40 Hz, 1.0-150 Hz for recording a microseismic wave field and sensors of seismic-acoustic measurements with a range of recorded frequencies of 1.0-1000 Hz, which are installed in the well at different horizons along the depth of the earth's crust, which allows to obtain a wider range of seismic signals.

The maximum amplitude values for a sequential set of discrete time values determine the oscillation amplitudes of the harmonic component of the electromagnetic wave at fixed frequencies, which determine the time of the earthquake.

After the time of the earthquake is established, the migration of local areas (zones) of seismic activity is detected by measuring the concentration of radon in groundwater, since breaks in the underground rocks can be preceded by a breakdown of their crystalline structure, when radon gas enters the groundwater through gaps, as well as by measurements hydrogen concentration, since gaseous hydrogen may be released above the fault line, exceeding 10 times the concentration under normal conditions.

The analysis of the measured energy and space-time parameters is performed at the moments when the frequency of the time course of the sinusoidal periodic process is comparable with the frequency of the cyclic measurement time, since the nature of the periodicity of the real and measured processes is different. The reason for the difference is the cyclical nature of the measurement time. One and the same process can be both periodic and non-periodic in different cyclic times of measurement. Since the time course of even a sinusoidal periodic process is periodic only if its frequency is comparable with the frequency of the cyclic system of the measurement time, and in all other cases the measurements give a non-periodic process, then to increase the accuracy of the forecast, the analysis of the measured parameters is performed for cases when the frequency of the time course of the sinusoidal The periodic process is commensurate with the frequency of the cyclic measurement time. The time of the earthquake is determined by the grid method. Since the analysis of the measured parameters is performed for a sequential set of discrete values of time, the obtained maximum values of the amplitudes make it possible to determine the vibration amplitudes of the harmonic component of the electromagnetic wave at the grid nodes.

The network of seismic stations is installed along a transcontinental fault system, which allows you to control the passage of oscillations of the harmonic component of the electromagnetic wave, for example, in the directions of remote regions with cities and cities, and accordingly take early measures to prevent possible negative consequences in the event of adverse events.

An advantage of the proposed technical solution is that during its implementation a wider range of seismic signals is recorded. The installation of means for sensing the earth’s crust with a frequency range of 0.01-1000 Hz, set to a predetermined depth of the earth’s crust from 15 to 150 m in the mode of probing the earth’s crust with low-frequency acoustic signals, allows you to penetrate to a greater depth into the bowels of the Earth and study its structure up to the inside cores, and, accordingly, to detect earlier the appearance of anomalies, including the appearance of induced seismicity during the extraction of large volumes of oil and gas from the earth's bowels in regions of hydrocarbon production.

As in the prototype, the analyzed parameters are decomposed into the physical elements that compose them, which allows you to set the analogy boundaries, formalize the initial information to make a forecast in a form convenient for computer processing, based on the given values of harmonic constants for the terrain with any terrain.

Moreover, the level of natural radioactivity, microseismic activity, electromagnetic field strength, air temperature and pressure, the temperature of the surface layers of the lithosphere and hydrosphere, as well as in the known methods [25, 26], ozone atmosphere and helium content in underground fluids of tectonic origin, a change in gravity, deformation of the earth's surface. You can control the parameters of either one of the listed fields, or, which increases the reliability of the control defined by their complex. In this case, by variations in the helium content during strong earthquakes that occur within 1.0-1.5 months before the event, you can preliminarily establish the moment of the possible onset of the earthquake, with its subsequent refinement by the rest of the analyzed parameters.

Simultaneously with the registration of signals by a ground seismic station, in the regions washed by the seas, the temperature of the bottom layer of sea water, the speed of bottom currents, the pressure on the bottom of the sea, the speed of sound in water, the concentration of hydrogen ions pH and magnetic variations are measured by means of installed bottom stations on the seabed. fields.

At the same time, in regions washed by the seas, bottom stations are installed in the coastal zones of continental margins, island arcs, mid-ocean ridges, and the foothills of mud volcanoes, the spatial and temporal parameters and direction of development of the seismic process are determined by cross-correlation analysis.

, что позволяет в полной мере использовать взаимокорреляционный и взаимоспектральный анализ.The determination of the mutual statistical relationship between the velocity components z '(t) and z' (x ^* ), which describe the dynamics of the moving wave surface z '(x ^* , t) in the space-time representation, is associated with the use of cross-correlation and inter-spectral analysis. Moreover, z '(t) and z' (x ^* ) are stationary random functions characterizing, respectively, the rate of change of the ordinates of the moving wave surface in time and in the direction of the axis ox ^* . In turn, the function z '(x ^* ), where x ^* (t) is the stationary random function describing the displacement of the wave surface along the axis ox *, is represented as a function of time $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

, which allows full use of cross-correlation and inter-spectral analysis.

и $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

определяется как:As a result, the inter-correlation function between $$z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

and $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

defined as:

$$\begin{array}{c}{R}_{z_{x^{*}}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(\tau \right)=\frac{\mathrm{one}}{T-\tau }{\displaystyle {\int }_0^{T-\tau }{z}_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t+\tau \right)dt}\\ R_{z_{x^{*}}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(-\tau \right)=R_{z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}{z}_{x^{*}}^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(\tau \right)=\frac{\mathrm{one}}{T-\tau }{\displaystyle {\int }_0^{T-\tau }{z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(t+\tau \right)dt\end{array}\}\left(\mathrm{one}\right)$$

и $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

с нулевыми средними значениями $$\overline{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}}\left(t\right)}=0$$

, $$\overline{Z_t^{\text{'}}\left(t\right)}$$

, и дисперсиями $${\sigma }_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}}}^2$$

, $${\sigma }_{Z_t^{\text{'}}}^2$$

;where T is the time interval of quasistationary random functions $$z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

and $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

with zero averages $$\overline{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)}=0$$

, $$\overline{Z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)}$$

, and variances $${\sigma }_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}}^2$$

, $${\sigma }_{Z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}^2$$

;

и $$z_t^{\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

. В общем случае функция взаимной корреляции является несимметричной, т.е. $$R_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}}}\left(\tau \right)\ne R_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}}}\left(-\tau \right)$$

.τ is the time shift between the values (ordinates) of the functions $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

and $$z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

. In general, the cross-correlation function is asymmetric, i.e. $$R_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(\tau \right)\ne R_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(-\tau \right)$$

.

характеризует степень статистической связи при упреждении $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

относительно $$z_t^{\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

, а функция $$R_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}}}\left(-\tau \right)=R_{Z_t^{\text{'}}{Z}_{x*}^{\text{'}}}\left(\tau \right)$$

- при запаздывании $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

относительно $$z_t^{\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

.In this case, the function $$R_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(\tau \right)$$

characterizes the degree of statistical communication in the lead $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

regarding $$z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

, and the function $$R_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(-\tau \right)=R_{Z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(\tau \right)$$

- when delayed $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

regarding $$z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

.

и $$z_t^{\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

относительно друг друга. При этом выделяются два характерных случая:The inter-correlation function allows you to evaluate the statistical relationship and determine the average phase difference of the change in functions $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

and $$z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

relative to each other. In this case, two characteristic cases are distinguished:

- функция взаимной корреляции симметрична относительно временного сдвига τ=0.1. When $$R_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(\tau \right)=R_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(-\tau \right)$$

- the cross-correlation function is symmetric with respect to the time shift τ = 0.

и $$z_t^{\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

, (φ₂-φ₁)=0, что свидетельствует о синхронности протекания процессов. Когда $$R_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}}}\left(\tau \right)\ne R_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}}}\left(-\tau \right)$$

- функция взаимной корреляции ассиметрична относительно временного сдвига φ=0.2. The maximum of the function is achieved at τ = 0, the phase difference of the functions $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

and $$z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

, (φ ₂ -φ ₁ ) = 0, which indicates the synchronism of the processes. When $$R_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(\tau \right)\ne R_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(-\tau \right)$$

- the cross-correlation function is asymmetric with respect to the time shift φ = 0.

и $$z_t^{\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

.The maximum of the function is achieved with a time shift τ = τ _s ≠ 0, the phase difference corresponding to the time shift τ _c , (φ ₂ -φ ₁ ) ≠ 0, which indicates the asynchronous process $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

and $$z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

.

и $$z_t^{\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

производится на основе коэффициента взаимной корреляции, определяемого как:Assessment of the degree and nature of the mutual statistical relationship of functions $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

and $$z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

based on a cross-correlation coefficient, defined as:

$$\begin{array}{c}{r}_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(\tau \right)=\frac{R_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(\tau \right)}{{\sigma }_{Z_{x\text{'}\text{'}}^{\text{'}\text{'}}}{\sigma }_{Z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}}\\ r_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(-\tau \right)=r_{Z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(\tau \right)=\frac{R_{Z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(\tau \right)}{{\sigma }_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}}{\sigma }_{Z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}}\end{array}\}\left(2\right)$$

- взаимная дисперсия функций $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

и $$z_t^{\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

при временном сдвиге τ, отвечающем максимуму функции взаимной корреляции; $$R_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(\tau \right)$$

- mutual dispersion of functions $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

and $$z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

at a time shift τ corresponding to the maximum of the cross-correlation function;

- коэффициенты взаимной корреляции функций $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

и $$z_t^{\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

при временном сдвиге τ, соответствующем максимуму функции взаимной корреляции; $$r_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(\tau \right)=r_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(-\tau \right)$$

- cross-correlation coefficients of functions $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

and $$z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

at a time shift τ corresponding to the maximum of the cross-correlation function;

$$0\le \left|r_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(\tau \right)\right|\le \mathrm{one}$$

определяет степень статистической связи функции, а его знак свидетельствует о прямой или обратной зависимости функций.The modulus of the cross correlation coefficient $$\left|r_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(\tau \right)\right|$$

determines the degree of statistical relationship of the function, and its sign indicates a direct or inverse relationship of the functions.

In the case of a direct dependence r (τ)> 0, - there are identically directed deviations of the functions from the average value, and in the case of r (τ) <0, there is a mutually inverse direction of the deviations of the functions.

и $$z_t^{\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

, относительно временного сдвига τ=0, используется представление функции взаимной корреляции в виде:To highlight the properties of symmetry and asymmetry of the interrelation of the function $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

and $$z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

, relative to the time shift τ = 0, the representation of the cross-correlation function is used in the form:

$$\begin{array}{c}{R}_h\left(\tau \right)=\frac{\mathrm{one}}{2}\left[R_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(-\tau \right)+R_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(\tau \right)\right]\\ R_{nh}\left(\tau \right)=\frac{\mathrm{one}}{2}\left[R_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(-\tau \right)+R_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(\tau \right)\right]\end{array}\}$$

where R _h (τ) is the even part of the cross-correlation function;

R _LF (τ) is the odd part of the cross-correlation function.

The function R _h (τ) is even with respect to the time shift τ = 0,

и $$z_t^{\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

и их синхронными изменениями.those. R _h (τ) = R _h (-τ), which indicates the phase difference (φ ₂ -φ ₁ ) = 0 between functions $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

and $$z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

and their synchronous changes.

, является нечетной функцией R_нч(τ)≠R_нч(-τ).The function R _LF (τ) reflects the asymmetry property of the cross-correlation function $$R_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(\tau \right)$$

, is an odd function R _lf (τ) ≠ R _lf (-τ).

The asymmetry of the function R _low (τ) is expressed in the shift of its maximum by a time shift τ ≠ 0.

Moreover, R _LF (τ) ≠ 0 indicates the phase difference (φ ₂ -φ ₁ ) ≠ 0 and, accordingly, the asynchrony of the ongoing processes.

и $$z_t^{\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

непосредственно зависят от соотношения взаимной дисперсии синхронного и асинхронного их взаимодействия.As follows from the representation of the cross-correlation function in the form, the degree of statistical connection and the phase difference of the process oscillations $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

and $$z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

directly depend on the ratio of the mutual dispersion of their synchronous and asynchronous interactions.

This allows us to move on to the spectral representation of the interconnection of functions based on the determination of the mutual spectral density function, which is the Fourier transform of the mutual correlation function.

In this case, the mutual spectral density function is expressed as:

; $$S_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}{Z}_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(\omega \right)=S_{\mathrm{AT}}\left(\omega \right)+j{S}_{\mathrm{TO}\mathrm{AT}}\left(\omega \right)$$

;

- вещественная часть взаимного спектра функции;Where $$S_{\mathrm{AT}}\left(\omega \right)=\frac{\mathrm{one}}{2}{\displaystyle {\int }_0^T{R}_H\left(\tau \right)\cos \omega \tau d\tau }$$

- the real part of the mutual spectrum of the function;

- квадратурная часть взаимного спектра функций. $$S_{\mathrm{TO}\mathrm{AT}}\left(\omega \right)=\frac{\mathrm{one}}{2}{\displaystyle {\int }_0^T{R}_{NH}\left(\tau \right)\sin \omega \tau d\tau }$$

- the quadrature part of the mutual spectrum of functions.

и $$z_t^{\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

.The real part of the mutual spectrum determines the contribution of the energy of the frequencies of the spectrum of the function to the total mutual dispersion at a time shift τ = 0, i.e. is a measure of mutual energy in synchronous interaction of processes $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

and $$z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

.

относительно $$z_t^{\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

на $$\tau =\raisebox{1ex}{$T$}\!\left/ \!\raisebox{-1ex}{$4$}\right.$$

.The quadrature part of the mutual spectrum determines the contribution of the energy of the frequencies of the spectrum of the functions to the total mutual dispersion during a time shift of the frequencies of the spectrum of the function $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

regarding $$z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

on $$\tau =\raisebox{1ex}{$T$}\!\left/ \!\raisebox{-1ex}{$\mathrm{four}$}\right.$$

.

As a result, the cross-correlation coefficient of functions in the frequency representation is defined as

$$r\left(\omega \right)=\frac{\sqrt{S_{\mathrm{AT}}^2\left(\omega \right)+S_{\mathrm{to}\mathrm{at}}^2\left(\omega \right)}}{\sqrt{S_{Z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(\omega \right)}\sqrt{S_{Z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}}\left(\omega \right)}};\left(3\right)$$

where 0≤r (ω) ≤1

According to the definition of r (ω), the following characteristic cases can be distinguished:

1. When S _q (ω) = 0, S _B (ω) ≠ 0 is the phase difference of the oscillations at the frequency

ω (φ ₂ -φ ₁ ) = 0, because interconnection of processes is carried out only due to their synchronous interaction.

, т.к. взаимосвязь между колебаниями с частотой со осуществляется только за счет энергии асинхронного их взаимодействия.2. When S _B (ω) = 0, S _q (ω) ≠ 0 is the phase difference of the spectral components at a frequency $$\omega \left({\varphi }_2-{\varphi }_{\mathrm{one}}\right)=\raisebox{1ex}{$\pi $}\!\left/ \!\raisebox{-1ex}{$2$}\right.$$

because the relationship between the oscillations with frequency ω is carried out only due to the energy of their asynchronous interaction.

3. When S _В (ω) ≠ 0, S _КВ (ω) ≠ 0, the phase difference of the spectral components at the frequency ω is defined as

; $$\Delta \varphi ={\varphi }_2-{\varphi }_{\mathrm{one}}=arctg\frac{S_{\mathrm{at}}\left(\omega \right)}{S_{\mathrm{to}\mathrm{at}}\left(\omega \right)}$$

;

;where φ ₂ is the initial phase of the process $$z_{x*}^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

;

.φ ₁ - the initial phase of the process $$z_t^{\text{'}\text{'}}\left(t\right)$$

.

It should be noted that the determined cross-correlation coefficient r (ω) allows not only to evaluate the linear statistical relationship of the spectral components of the processes at a common frequency ω, but also to evaluate the stability of the phase difference. In the case where the phase difference of the processes Δφ = const, r (ω) = 1, with instability of the phase difference r (ω) → 0.

Earthquake precursors can be installed in the following sequence. With an increase in intracrustal pressure, which can occur, for example, during the preparation of a strong earthquake, through the vents of underwater mud volcanoes and clefts of tectonic faults, the fluids contained in the pores of the crust “squeeze” into the bottom layer, causing a significant change in its properties, measure the temperature by means of the bottom station bottom layer of seawater, velocity of bottom currents, bottom pressure, speed of sound in water, concentration of pH. At the same time, the flow velocity increases 8 days before the earthquake and reaches its maximum in seven days (from 0.05 m / s to 0.15 m / s). At the same time, the pH indicator changes stepwise, but stably relative to the average level, the water temperature, the speed of sound and the pressure at the bottom begin to rise slowly and synchronously.

Five days before the earthquake, the velocity of the bottom current sharply decreases (from 0.15 m / s to 0.05 m / s and less), and the pH rises sharply (from 7.2 to 7.6), while the water temperature , the speed of sound and pressure at the bottom continue to rise monotonously and synchronously. Three days before the earthquake, the pH drops sharply, while the water temperature, sound velocity and pressure at the bottom continue to increase monotonously and synchronously.

The bottom station can be used as a bottom station developed by the Design Bureau of the OT RAS (Geoecological monitoring of offshore oil and gas areas / L.I. Lobkovsky, D.G. Levchenko, A.V. Leonov, A.K. Ambrosimov // M .: Nauka, 2005, p. 97-100 [29]).

The implementation of the proposed method of technical complexity does not present, which allows us to conclude that the claimed technical solution meets the patentability condition "industrial applicability".

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Claims (1)

A method for determining earthquake precursors, including measuring signals of electrostatic anomalies by a network of seismic stations with the allocation of control zones, determining their energy and spatio-temporal parameters and the direction of development of the seismic process, identifying the migration of local areas of seismic activity, by changing the parameters of which judge the location and magnitude of the impending earthquake in a seismically active zone, with the determination of electromagnetic earthquake precursors Taking into account the amplitudes of the resonance frequency in the Earth - ionosphere waveguide at fixed frequencies, with the placement of at least one of the seismic stations in space orbit, the definition of an earthquake as a precursor of an earthquake is the increased content of radon in groundwater, the determination of an increased content of hydrogen as an earthquake precursor on fault lines, in which the determination of energy and spatio-temporal parameters and the direction of development of the seismic process is carried out at moments when and the frequency of the time course of the sinusoidal periodic process will be commensurate with the frequency of the cyclic measurement time, the measurement of electrical anomaly signals by ground stations is carried out at fixed frequencies of 7.8, 14.4, 20.3 Hz, and the measurements in the infra-low-frequency station are recorded in a space orbit range in the region of the first resonant frequency, while the maximum values of the amplitude are determined by the harmonic component of the electromagnetic wave, limited along the surface contour, and max The minimum values of the amplitudes are determined for several points with material or planned coordinates, taking into account the height of the sea level for each point, while in the regions washed by the seas, bottom stations are installed on the seabed to measure temperature, velocity of bottom currents, pressure at the bottom, and sound velocity in water, the concentration of hydrogen ions, pH and a constant magnetic field, characterized in that the ground stations are additionally equipped with means for sensing the earth's crust in the frequency range of 0.01-1000 Hz, which is set to In the given horizon at the depth of the earth's crust, a network of ground-based seismic stations is established along a transcontinental fault system, in regions washed by the seas, bottom stations are installed in the coastal zones of continental margins, island arcs, mid-ocean ridges and foothills of mud volcanoes.