MXPA04009940A - System and method for animal feed market analysis. - Google Patents

System and method for animal feed market analysis.

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Publication number
MXPA04009940A
MXPA04009940A MXPA04009940A MXPA04009940A MXPA04009940A MX PA04009940 A MXPA04009940 A MX PA04009940A MX PA04009940 A MXPA04009940 A MX PA04009940A MX PA04009940 A MXPA04009940 A MX PA04009940A MX PA04009940 A MXPA04009940 A MX PA04009940A
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Mexico
Prior art keywords
new
ingredient
modified
market
projected
Prior art date
Application number
MXPA04009940A
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Spanish (es)
Inventor
Craig Mike
Original Assignee
Can Technologies Inc
Priority date (The priority date is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the date listed.)
Filing date
Publication date
Priority claimed from US10/122,283 external-priority patent/US20030195792A1/en
Priority claimed from US10/122,256 external-priority patent/US20030195758A1/en
Application filed by Can Technologies Inc filed Critical Can Technologies Inc
Publication of MXPA04009940A publication Critical patent/MXPA04009940A/en

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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q30/00Commerce
    • G06Q30/02Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising

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  • Strategic Management (AREA)
  • Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
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  • Development Economics (AREA)
  • Finance (AREA)
  • Economics (AREA)
  • Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
  • Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
  • Marketing (AREA)
  • Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
  • Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
  • Investigating Or Analysing Biological Materials (AREA)

Abstract

A valuation system (100) for determining the impact of a modification in the nutrient composition of an ingredient or the impact of a new ingredient on the value of the ingredient and the value of competing ingredients (140). The system can include a repository of information related to potential markets that is incorporated in the evaluation to provide a valuation (160). This system allows analysis of multiple formulations of animal feed utilizing the new or modified ingredient in a designated market to determine projected usage and value (150).

Description

SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR ANALYSIS OF THE FOOD MARKET FOR ANIMALS FIELD OF THE INVENTION The present invention relates generally to the field of animal feed market analysis. More particularly, the present invention relates to computerized systems and methods for evaluating the impact of a modification in the nutritional composition of an ingredient or the impact of a new ingredient on the value of the ingredient and the value of competing ingredients in a market of animal feeding. BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION In general, animal feed products are compositions of a wide variety of raw materials or ingredients. The ingredients can be selected using two criteria. This first criterion is the nutritional composition of the ingredient. The second criterion is the cost of the ingredient. The nutritional composition of a food ingredient can be used in combination with the nutritional composition of many other ingredients in the food to produce an animal feed that optimizes the growth and production of the animals and / or the economic benefit. Animal feed producers have recognized that certain nutritional compositions help animals grow larger, faster than if they used other nutritional compositions. Additionally, animal feed producers have recognized that large amounts of certain nutrients can actually block the growth rate of an animal. In addition, animal food producers have recognized that the optimal nutritional composition changes depending on the state of development of the animals in question (eg, neonates, weaned, pregnant). The ideal nutritional composition can also change based on additional factors, including the health of the animals and whether the animal is lactating. Therefore, animal food producers have recognized that mixing the ingredients to produce an ideal nutritional composition for particular animals at particular growth stages can maximize the growth of an animal. The second criterion for selecting the ingredients of animal feed is the cost of the ingredients. Although an ingredient may have an ideal or better nutritional profile, if it can be replaced by lower-cost ingredients, it may be desirable to use the lower-cost ingredients. The cost of the ingredients and the maximization of growth balance against each other. For example, when a high growth rate or development for a particular animal is not economically advantageous, due, for example, to seasonal markets or the quantity of demand, an animal producer may choose to use a less expensive feed that does not produce the same speed of growth. Producers of pure ingredients may try to maximize the nutritional composition of their product for a lower cost. Producers of pure ingredients often maximize the nutritional composition of ingredients by producing either new ingredients or improving the nutritional composition of an existing ingredient. To determine what to research and produce, producers of pure ingredients evaluate the value of the new ingredient or ingredient with an improved nutritional composition. There is no simple method to predict the value of new ingredients since they are new. Therefore, there is a need for a system or method that can help predict the value of a new ingredient or an ingredient with a modified nutritional composition. In addition, there is a need for such a system and method that can help predict the effect of the new ingredient or ingredient with a modified nutritional composition, on the value of existing ingredients in an animal feed market. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION An exemplary embodiment refers to a system for the analysis of the animal feed market, to evaluate the impact of a new ingredient or an ingredient that has a modified nutritional composition, on the economic value of the ingredient and the economic value of existing ingredients that could replace the new or modified ingredient. This system may include an input device configured to receive a nutritional profile for the new or modified ingredient, a processor configured to receive the nutritional profile from the input device and carry out a calculation in part, based on the nutritional profile, and an output device configured to provide a calculation result provided by the processor, wherein the processor is configured to predict a projected economic value of the new or modified ingredient. Another exemplary embodiment refers to a system for the analysis of the animal feed market operable in a network environment to evaluate the impact of a new ingredient or an ingredient having a modified nutritional composition, on the economic value of the ingredient and the value economic of the existing alternative ingredients. This system may include a means to receive a nutritional profile for the new or modified ingredient and a means to predict the economic value of the new or modified ingredient. Another exemplary embodiment refers to a system for providing access to a system for analyzing the animal feed market. This system may include using a first processing system to maintain an information processing unit of the animal feed market, the processing unit of the animal feed market that receives and processes the requirements regarding the valuation of an ingredient of the animal feed market. new or modified animal feed and a second processing system configured to transmit a signal requesting information about the animal feed market via a network. The signal can be transmitted by the second processing system in response to the selection of a hypermedia link. Another exemplary embodiment refers to a system for determining the economic value of a new ingredient or an ingredient with a modified nutritional composition. This system may include an input device configured to receive a nutritional profile with respect to a new or modified ingredient, from an input device, a data repository configured to access the conditions of the animal feed market, and a processor configured to determine the economic value projected for the new or modified ingredient. Another exemplary embodiment refers to a method for the analysis of the animal feed market, to evaluate the impact of a new ingredient or an ingredient having a modified nutritional composition, on the economic value of the ingredient and the economic value of the existing ingredients. which could be substitutes for the new or modified ingredient. This method may include receiving a nutritional profile for the new or modified ingredient, predicting the projected economic value of the new or modified ingredient. Another exemplary embodiment refers to a method to allow access to a system for analysis of the animal feed market. This method may include using a first processing system to maintain a processing unit on the animal feed market information that receives and processes the applications for the valuation of a new or modified animal feed ingredient, to receive a signal to activate a function from the information processing unit on the animal feed market for a remote processing system, via a network, where the signal is transmitted from the remote processing system in response to a selection of a hypermedia link, and using the first processing system to operate the information processing unit on the animal feed market in response to the signal. Another exemplary embodiment refers to a method for determining the economic value of a new ingredient or an ingredient with a modified nutritional composition. This method may include receiving a nutritional profile for a new ingredient from an input device, access the market conditions of animal feed, determine an economic value for the new or modified ingredient. Other features and main advantages of the invention will become apparent to those skilled in the art from the review of the following drawings, the detailed description, and the appended claims. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS Exemplary embodiments will be described hereinafter with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which similar numbers denote similar elements, and: FIGURE 1 is a general block diagram illustrating an independent computer system in accordance with an exemplary modality; FIGURE 2 is a general block diagram illustrating computers operating in a network environment in accordance with an exemplary embodiment; FIGURE 3 is a network pages in accordance with an exemplary embodiment; FIGURE 4A is a flow diagram illustrating a method for evaluating the impact of a modification on a nutritional composition of an ingredient or the impact of a new ingredient on the value of the ingredient and the value of the competing ingredients in accordance with a method copy. FIGURE 4B is a map representing the market designations based on the concentrations of the types of animals in accordance with an exemplary embodiment; FIGURE 5 is a general block diagram illustrating a data repository in accordance with an exemplary embodiment; and FIGURE 6 is a flowchart that illustrates the steps to calculate the impact of a change in the nutritional composition of an ingredient or the impact of a new ingredient on the value of the ingredient and the value of the competing ingredients in accordance with a exemplary mode. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE EXEMPLARY MODALITIES A system and method for evaluating the impact of a new ingredient or a modification in the nutritional composition of an ingredient on the value of the ingredient and the value of the competing ingredients are described. In the following description, for purposes of explanation, the numerous specific details are set forth to provide a thorough understanding of the present invention. It will be evident, however, for a person skilled in the art that exemplary modalities can be practiced without these specific details. In other cases, the structures and devices are shown in diagram form to facilitate the description of the exemplary modalities. In at least one of the exemplary embodiments illustrated below, a computer system is described which has a central processing unit (CPU) which executes the sequences of instructions contained in a memory. More specifically, the execution of the instruction sequences causes the CPU to perform the steps, which are described below. The instructions can be loaded into a random access memory (RAM) for execution by the CPU from a read-only memory (ROM), a mass storage device, or some other permanent storage. In other embodiments, direct cabling circuitry may be used in place of, or in combination with, the instructions of the computer software to implement the functions described. Therefore, the embodiments described herein are not limited to a particular source for the instructions executed by the computer system. FIGURE 1 illustrates an independent computer system 400 that can be used to evaluate the impact of a modification in the nutritional composition of an ingredient or the impact of a new ingredient on the value of the ingredient and the value of competing ingredients. The computer system 400 may include a processor 420, a visual screen unit 430, an input device 440, and an output device 450. The independent computer system 400 may further be associated with a memory storage unit such as the data repository 200, described with reference to FIGURE 5, such that the computer system 400 can access the data stored in the data repository 200. The computer system 400 may be any type of computing device, including workstations, laptops, personal digital assistants (PDAs), or other equipment capable of receiving inputs from the input device 440, accessing the data repository 200, executing a series of instructions and provide an output to the visual screen unit 430 or to the output device 450. The processor 420 can be any type of processor capable of executing instructions, such as an INTEL Pentium processor. The visual screen unit 430 can be any type of visual screen, such as a CRT tubular monitor or an LCD screen, the input 440 device can be a keyboard, a touch tablet, voice recognition, file transfer, or any other method or apparatus for communicating the information to the independent computer system 400. The output device 450 may be a laser printer, a dot matrix printer, an email program, or any other method or apparatus for communicating information from the independent computer system 400. In accordance with an exemplary embodiment, a client seeking a value analysis for a new or modified ingredient can use the methods described with reference to FIGS. 4-6 using a computer system 400. The customer can use input means 440 to provide the necessary inputs. The computer system 400 can be used to implement an ingredient valuation system in which the processor 420 can receive the inputs, access the data repository 200 for the additional information required, and carry out the necessary calculations. The results of the analysis can be provided alternatively in the visual screen unit 430 or the output device 450. FIGURE 2 illustrates a 500 system for food market analysis to evaluate the impact of a modification in the nutritional composition of an ingredient or the impact of a new ingredient on the value of the ingredient and the value of competing ingredients. The system 500 may include a first computer system 520, a network 530 of computers, and a second computer system 540. The second computer system 540 further includes a network scanning application 550 capable of displaying a network 600 pages provided by the first computer system 520, described with reference to FIGURE 3. The first computer system 520 and the second computer system 540 may be any type of computer system, such as an independent computer system 400, discussed with reference to FIGURE 1. The computer system 520 and the second computer system 540 also include devices for communicating through a 530 network. Additionally, the first system Computer 520 may also be associated with a data repository 200 such that the first computer system 520 can access the data stored in the data repository 200. According to an exemplary mode, the 530 network in the International Network, or a network around the world of computer networks that use several protocols to facilitate the transmission and exchange of data. The network 530 can use a protocol, such as the TCP / IP protocol or the DECnet, X. 25, and UD protocols. According to alternative modalities, the network 530 can be any type of network, such as a virtual private network (VPN), or a Netware network. In addition, network 530 may include a configuration, such as a wide area network (AN) or local area network (LAN). Network 530 preferably provides communication with a Hypertext Composition Language (HTML). The network scanning application 550 may be any type of application capable of accessing the information stored in other computer systems through the 530 network. Examples may include applications such as International Network Explorers sold by Microsoft Corporation of Redmond , A or NETSCAPE® sold by Netscape Communications Inc. of Montain View, CA. According to an exemplary embodiment, the network scanning application 550 can be used to access the first computer system 520, to receive the data, and display the network pages 600. An exemplary network pages is described with reference to FIGURE 6. According to an exemplary mode, a client seeking to use the system 500 to evaluate the impact of a modification in the nutritional composition of an ingredient or the impact of a new ingredient on the value of the ingredient and the value of the competing ingredients can access the second computer system 540 and run the application 550 of exploration of network. The network scanning application 550 may be directed to retrieve the network pages 600 from the first computer system 520 through the network 530. Once recovered, the network pages 600 can be used by the client to provide the necessary entries. The necessary entries may include the entry of the customer ingredient described with reference to FIGURE 4A. According to an exemplary embodiment, an exemplary method for providing the information through the network pages 600 is discussed below with reference to FIGURE 3. First, the computer system can receive the entries and access the data repository 200 to collect the information necessary to carry out the evaluation of the value. The first computer system 520 can then transfer the results of the evaluation to the second computer system 540 through the network 530 to display the network page 600. According to an exemplary embodiment, the network pages 600 may require the satisfaction of a connection procedure before carrying out the evaluation and transferring the results of the evaluation. An example of a connection procedure may include the provision of using a name and password in designated text entry boxes on network pages 600 corresponding to the stored values. FIGURE 3 illustrates a network page 600 of an exemplary mode of network page 600. FIG. Network page 600 is a visual display of a document written in Hypertext Composition Language (HTML) that includes images, links and embedded data fields. The network page 600 can be a single network page or a series of network pages accessed through links inserted into a first network page. A first page of a network in a series may include a method of access control of username and password, to provide the recognition of the client. According to an exemplary embodiment, the network page 600 may include a title 603, a set 605 of instructions, an entry field 610 of the nutritional profile of the new or modified ingredient, an entry field 620 of the region, a field 630 of entrance of the type of animal, and a field 640 of exit. The title 603 can be used to identify the page and include graphics of the owner that identify the source of the page. The set of instructions can be the information necessary for the client to use the system and the method of assessing the ingredient. The input fields 610, 620 and 630 can be implemented as text entry fields, drop-down menu field, selectable, file transfer points, or any other method in which the necessary information would be inserted to transfer it to the first system 520 computer The output field 640 can be a downloaded file, an object embedded in a spreadsheet, or any other means in which the calculation results transferred from the first computer system 520 can be displayed. An example could be a spreadsheet filled with the results of the analysis, including graphs, diagrams, and the description to explain the results of the calculation. According to an exemplary embodiment, the client can use the network scanning application 550 to access the network page 600. The network page 600 may be displayed in the visual screen unit for the second computer system 540. The client can read the instruction set 605 to understand how to use the ingredient valuation method and page 600 of the network. The user can enter the data in the fields 610, 620, and 630, with input data as described with reference to FIGURE 4A. Once the data is entered, the system can process the information using the method described with reference to FIGURE 4A. The results of the ingredient valuation method can be returned to the user in the 640 output field. FIGURE 4A illustrates a flow diagram 100 representing the steps in a method for evaluating the impact of a modification on a composition nutritional of an ingredient or the impact of a new ingredient on the value of the ingredient and the value of the competing ingredients. A new ingredient can be a new composition that has nutritional properties that can be used in animal feed. A modified ingredient may be an existing ingredient with some aspect of its modified nutritional profile. A competing ingredient can be an ingredient that can be used as a substitute for the new or modified ingredient, either alone or in combination with other competing ingredients. According to an exemplary emment, in a step 110, information about the customer's ingredient is received. According to one modality, a human operator carries out the method and facilitates the transfer of information and the collection of information. According to this exemplary modality, the information can be received by the operator through a person-to-person communication, either direct or indirect. According to an alternative emment, the information about the customer's ingredient can be received by a separate computer system using any type of input device such as a keyboard, a mouse, a speech recognition system, etc. An independent computer system is described with reference to FIGURE 1. According to an alternative mode, information about the customer's ingredient can be received by a computer operating in a network environment. An exemplary network modality is described with reference to FIGURE 2. Information about the customer ingredient, communicated by the customer, may include a nutritional composition for the new or modified ingredient, a potential market for the new or modified ingredient, and a type of specific animal to be fed by the new or modified ingredient. The nutritional composition of the new or modified ingredient in a general manner may include the physical and chemical properties, such as, the mineral content, the vitamin content, the particle size, the fiber content, etc. A potential market may include a specific geographic area, such as a state or region, a commercial organization, such as a commodity market, or any other type of market. The potential market can be a customer definition of the desired market, a customer selection of a finite number of defined markets, or any other method where the customer indicates the market to be examined based on any of a variety of criteria. FIGURE 4B illustrates a map 180 of designation of the United States market that includes a finite set of markets established based on the concentrations of the different specific types of animals. The designation 181 of the market covers a geographical area where there is a high concentration of pig producers. The designation 182 of the market covers a geographical area where there is a high concentration of cattle producers. The type of animal specifically treated to be fed by the new or modified ingredient can be any type of animal, including cows, pigs, turkeys, fish, etc. Returning to FIGURE 4A, immediately after step 110, a step 120 is carried out in which the data can be retrieved from a data repository. The data can be retrieved from a. repository of data or obtained from any other source. In accordance with an exemplary mode, an operator can retrieve the data by reverencing the data repository or using other sources of information. Other sources of information may include, but are not limited to, newspapers, the International Network, market reports, travel magazines, etc. An example of a data repository is further described with reference to FIGURE 5. In general, the type of data stored in the repository may be any information necessary or useful to predict the impact of a new ingredient or a modification in the nutritional composition of an ingredient about the value of the ingredient and the value of the competing ingredients. The data stored in the data repository can be the achievable values based on a study carried out annually. An example of this type of data may be the populations of animals projected within a given region. Alternatively, the data repository can be used to access data that is updated daily, hourly, or even continuously. An example of this type of data may be the prices for competing ingredients. This data can be continuously updated using a survey method or an International Network link to a price indicator in an asset market as examples. After step 120, a step 130 may be carried out in which a value for the modified novel ingredient is determined. A determination of the exemplary value is described with reference to FIGURE 6. Generally, the determination can be made to predict the new value or change in the value of a new or modified ingredient based on the inputs given as describes above. After step 130, a determination can be made in a step 140, about whether the value or change in the value of the new or modified ingredient has an effect on the value of the competing ingredients. This determination may be based on a number of factors. Factors may include projected market penetration for the new or modified ingredient, the capacity of the output output for the new or modified ingredient, etc. If a determination is made in step 140, that the value or change in the value of the new or modified ingredient has an effect on the value of the competing ingredients, a step 150 may be carried out where a new one is calculated. predicted value for competing ingredients. Following this calculation, step 130 can be repeated using the new values for the competing ingredients. This cycle condition, which includes steps 130, 140, and 150, may be repeated until a stable system is established. A stable system is established when the prices of the ingredients within the method do not change in reaction to the other ingredient prices. If a determination is made in step 140 that the value or change in value of the new or modified ingredient does not have an effect on the value of the competing ingredients, a step 160 may be carried out in which a analysis of the value of the new or modified ingredient. The analysis can be simplistic or complex as required by the client. An example of a simplistic analysis can be a simple value of the price at which value will be maximized. An example of a complex analysis can include the prices at which the value is maximized at various levels of production, the prices at which the value of the competing ingredients will not be affected, etc. Advantageously, the ingredient valuation method, described with reference to FIGURE 4A, may be offered as a service to ingredients producers, researchers, or others. Alternatively, the method can be used as an internal evaluation tool. Clients, external or internal, may be producers of the ingredient that is considering the production of a new ingredient or an ingredient with a modified nutritional composition. Clients may also be researchers who are considering the development of a new ingredient or a method to improve the nutritional composition of an existing ingredient. Potential customers can be any person with a need to know the impact of a change in the nutritional composition of an ingredient or the impact of a new ingredient on the value of the ingredient and the value of competing ingredients. FIGURE 5 illustrates a data repository 200 that can be used to store information that can be used to determine the value of a new or modified ingredient. In general, the information in the data repository 200 refers to the potential markets in which the customer may attempt to sell the new or modified ingredient. The data repository 200 may be a computer that includes memory, a database, a computer file, a paper file, or any other device or device capable of facilitating the storage and retrieval of data. According to an exemplary embodiment, the data repository 200 may include a variety of files, such as the 210 regional ingredients file, a 220 file, regional ingredient prices, a 230 trend file of the ingredients, a 240 file of information based on the stage, and a file 250 of the animal populations. Other data that may affect the valuation may also be included or reflected in the information categories mentioned above. The 210 regional ingredients file can be a record of current or projected ingredients to be available in a region. Exemplary ingredients include corn, wheat, wheat intermediates, lysine, HCL, and high protein soy food. This information can be obtained using market reports, expert information, or any other source. According to an exemplary embodiment, the region for a particular entry in the 210 regional ingredients file may be designated by the customer or chosen from a predefined list. The regional ingredients file 210 may be an archived file created and stored in the data repository 200. This file can be updated as necessary to reflect current or projected market conditions.
According to a preferred embodiment, the file 210 of regional ingredients may also include a nutritional composition for the ingredients available in the region. The nutritional composition can include the physical and chemical properties, such as, the mineral content, the vitamin content, the particle size, the fiber content, etc. The regional ingredients price file 220 can be an archive of the prices of the ingredients in the 210 regional ingredients file. The prices can be the prices of the ingredients delivered. Advantageously, using the price delivered justifies the transportation costs. Prices can include historic, current and projected values. Historical price information can be obtained from existing records. The current prices can be obtained from any listing, such as the newspaper, a list of the network, or any other source that reports the current price of the ingredients. The projected values can be obtained by extrapolation from historical prices based on any of the relevant current conditions. The regional ingredients price file 220 can be a file, archived, stored in the data repository 200. Alternatively, the regional ingredients price file 220 can be a link to information that reflects the most current ingredient prices. This link can be provided by telephone, a newspaper, the International Network or any other means. Advantageously, storing and allowing the retrieval of a variety of price information allows the customer to predict a value using the information that is most appropriate to meet their needs. The trend file 230 of the regional ingredients can be a listing of the weights to be given to the ingredients to calculate the projected use. According to an exemplary embodiment, the weighting can include a minimum value for the amount of an ingredient that is used in a region. An example of the weights may be that one thousand metric tons of corn is used in a region of Upper Iowa regardless of any inefficiency in the cost. Advantageously, the regional ingredient trends file 230 explains a regional trend in which market participants tend to use a given ingredient at a level that is not economically optimal. This value can be created using the analysis of past market trends, expert predictions, or any other method. The trend file 230 of the regional ingredients may be the values stored in a file within the data repository 200. The file 240 of nutritional requirements based on the stage can be a file of the nutritional requirements for the different types of animals in various stages of development and health. Examples of stages of development and health may include neonates, weaning, youth, maturity, gestation, or any other differentiation that may reflect different nutritional requirements. In general, the nutritional requirements for a newborn animal or a pregnant animal are significantly different from the requirements for a healthy adult animal. For example, a pregnant animal may need a formulation that includes a high concentration of calcium to promote the development of the fetus. According to a preferred embodiment, the file 240 of nutritional requirements based on the stage may also include the volume of food consumed by an animal in a given stage. This value can be obtained based on historical records or expert testimonies. An example may be that pregnant pigs consume 68.04 kg (150 pounds) of feed per month. Advantageously, examining the nutritional requirements in several stages for several animals allows a more accurate calculation of the projected demand for the specific ingredients. The file 240 of nutritional requirements based on the stage can be a file, archived, stored in the data repository 200. The 250 file of animal populations can be a listing of the animal populations in a region. Examples may include the number of pigs, the number of cows, etc. The file of 250 animal populations can also be divided into subgroups based on the stage of development of the animals in the population as discussed above with reference to file 250 of nutritional requirements based on the stage. According to an exemplary embodiment, the file 250 of animal populations can also include historical, current and projected values. Historical and current values can be obtained from any source such as a regional department of agriculture report. The projected population can be extrapolated from historical values based on current conditions. The file 250 of animal populations can also incorporate a concept of market penetration, such that only a subset of the total animal population is used to calculate demand based on anticipated market penetration. According to an exemplary embodiment, a subset of the animal population can be fed using only the locally grown ingredients. Therefore, the locally fed set would be excluded in the calculation of the projected demand. Advantageously, the analysis of the 240 file of nutritional requirements based on the stage and the 250 file of animal populations allows the calculation of the projected demand for the ingredients based on the nutritional requirements for the animal population within a given region. This calculation can be carried out using the formulation methods described below with reference to FIGURE 6. FIGURE 6 illustrates a flow chart 300 of the steps in a method for calculating the value of a new or modified ingredient. In a step 310, the data collected about the customer's ingredients can be evaluated. An example of collecting ingredient information is described with reference to steps 110 and 120 in FIGURE 4A. The data is evaluated to detect any aberration or deviation from the normal that could misrepresent a valuation analysis. This analysis can be carried out with a linear regression analysis or a similar method. Any of the aberrant values can be reexamined or discarded from the sample set. After step 310, a step 320 can be carried out in which the information of a memory storage device and the information received from the client are used as inputs for a formulation system at lower cost. A lower cost formulation system determines an ideal mix of ingredients including the new or modified ingredient, which satisfies a set of nutritional requirements for the lowest possible cost. The set of nutritional requirements is the nutritional requirement for a specific animal at a specific development stage, as described with reference to FIGURE 5. Lower cost formulation systems are well known to those skilled in the art. The formulation of lower cost can be carried out for each of the stages of development of the specifically treated animal. Advantageously, supplementing the formulations for each of the development stages of the specifically treated animal allows a more complete prediction of the demand. After step 320, a determination can be made in a step 330 to determine if the formulation meets the requirements of viability and health. If the formulation is not satisfactory, step 320 may be repeated including additional restrictions to improve health or viability as necessary. Following the determination in step 330 that the formulation is satisfactory, a determination can be made in a step 340 of whether the ingredient to be examined is an existing ingredient with a modified nutritional composition or a new ingredient.
If it is determined in step 340 that the ingredient to be examined is an existing ingredient with an improved nutritional composition, a step 350 can be carried out. In step 350, the ideal formulations calculated in step 320 can be analyzed in a step 350. lower cost formulation system. The lowest cost formulation system calculates the ideal feed mix for a variety of formulations based on market constraints, such as production costs, production speed, ingredient availability, etc. An example of a lower cost formulation system is the Multi-Mix sold by Format International, Limited, orking, England. Advantageously, the use of the lower cost formulation analysis allows the evaluation of the modified ingredient in various formulations to be carried out simultaneously. In step 350, projected usage rates for all ingredients used and inputs for the calculation can be provided. If it is determined in step 340 that the ingredients to be examined are new ingredients, a step 360 can be carried out. In step 360, a lower cost formulation analysis can be carried out using the ideal formulations calculated in the stage 320 and including only the specific raw materials for the region.
Following this analysis, a formulation analysis of lower additional cost can be carried out, using the ideal formulations calculated in step 320 and including the new ingredient in addition to the region-specific raw materials. For this analysis, the new ingredient can be assigned at the same price as an existing ingredient with a similar nutritional composition. Advantageously, this stage promotes a realistic initial valuation for a new ingredient. In step 360, projected usage rates for all ingredients used and inputs for the calculation can be provided. Following the lower cost formulation analysis in steps 350 and 360 of the two sets of ingredients, a parametric analysis of the output of the two lowest cost formulation analyzes can be carried out to predict the optimal prices for the new one. ingredient. A parametric analysis is an examination of the data sets to determine the prices above which the consumption rate falls dramatically. For example, the consumption rate can decrease slowly up to a price of $ 4.4092 / kg ($ 2.00 / pound), but at $ 4.96035 / kg ($ 2.25 / pound) the consumption rate decreases dramatically as users switch to a cheaper alternative . The optimal price can therefore be $ 4.4092 / kg ($ 2.00 / pound). The optimal price is then used as the price of the new ingredient in a lower cost formulation calculation. Following step 350 or 360, a step 370 may be carried out in which the consumption rates calculated in the lowest cost formulation operations are used to calculate the total value created by the introduction of the new or modified ingredient. According to an exemplary mode, the calculations can be used to generate an output spreadsheet. The output spreadsheet can be used to show the volume of the new or modified ingredient, used within the lower cost formulation system together with the gain received above the raw material compared. While the modalities illustrated in the figures and described above are currently preferred, it should be understood that these modalities are offered by way of example only. Other examples may include, for example, a wide variety of ways to transmit information regarding the value of a new or modified ingredient such as, a wireless application protocol (WAP), personal digital assistants (PDA) protocols, and others. means of presentation. further, while the exemplary embodiments describe the invention in the context of the animal food markets, the invention may be extended to other ingredient markets which are components for a formulation. Additionally, the specific information is described above as precedent of specific sources to be used in the system and the method, but any information that is relevant, from any source, can be used in the calculations. The invention is not limited to a particular modality, but extends to several modifications, combinations, and permutations that nevertheless fall within the scope and spirit of the attached modalities.

Claims (1)

  1. CLAIMS 1. A system for the analysis of the animal feed market to evaluate the impact of a new ingredient or an ingredient having a modified nutritional composition on the economic value of the new or modified ingredient, and the economic value of the existing ingredients that they could be replaced by the new or modified ingredient, the system characterized in that it comprised: an input device configured to receive a nutritional profile for the new or modified ingredient; a processor configured to receive the nutritional profile from the input device and carry out a calculation based in part on the nutritional profile; and an output device configured to provide a calculation result provided by the processor; wherein the processor is configured to predict a projected economic value for the new or modified ingredient. The system of claim 1, characterized in that the processor predicts the projected consumption for the new or modified ingredient. 3. The system of claim 2, characterized in that the processor predicts the projected value by calculating a market effect originated by the projected consumption for the new or modified ingredient. The system of claim 2, characterized in that the processor predicts the intended use for the new or modified ingredient using the new or modified ingredient as an entry into a formulation system at lower cost, wherein the formulation system at lower cost calculates the mixtures of ingredients given as inputs based on user-defined restrictions such as price and minimum nutritional requirements. The system of claim 4, characterized in that the formulation system at lower cost uses an initial projected price for the cost of the new or modified ingredient based on the price of the comparable ingredients. 6. The system of claim 4, characterized in that the formulation system at the lowest cost uses only the ingredients for sale in a market designated by the customer as the inputs in the formulation system at lower cost. The system of claim 4, characterized in that the analysis by the lowest cost formulation system is carried out using the new or modified ingredient for each formulation found in a region, wherein a food formulation is a mixture of specific amounts of the ingredients . 8. The system of claim 4, characterized in that each food formulation includes different formulations for different species of animals. The system of claim 4, characterized in that each food formulation includes different formulations for different stages of development for a specific animal. The system of claim 4, characterized in that the processor predicts the projected consumption for the new or modified ingredient using a lower cost formulation system by determining the projection of whether the existing ingredients are displaced by the projected consumption of the new or modified ingredient . The system of claim 4, characterized in that the processor predicts the projected consumption for the new or modified ingredient using a formulation system at the lowest price by calculating the projected volume demand for the new or modified ingredient. The system of claim 11, characterized in that the processor calculates the projected volume demand by analyzing the regional animal populations for the determination of the number of animals in each population. The system of claim 12, characterized in that the processor analyzes the regional animal populations by determining the stages of development of the animals in the populations. The system of claim 12, characterized in that the processor analyzes the regional animal populations by a determination of the projected intake of various formulations for the animal populations. 15. The system of claim 3, characterized in that the processor predicts the market effects of the projected consumption for the new or modified ingredient, evaluating the existing animal feed market conditions based on historical, current, and projected conditions. The system of claim 3, characterized in that the processor predicts the market effects of the projected consumption for the new or modified ingredient by analyzing the price and regional availability of the ingredient. The system of claim 3, characterized in that the processor predicts the market effects of the projected consumption for the new and modified ingredient through an analysis of regional trends for each existing ingredient. The system of claim 3, characterized in that the processor predicts the market effects of the projected consumption for the new or modified ingredient by calculating the probable changes in the price of the existing ingredients based on the introduction of the new or modified ingredient. The system of claim 18, characterized in that the processor determines the economic value of the new or modified ingredient by calculating the projected consumption for the new or modified ingredient based on the changes in the price of the existing ingredients. The system of claim 3, characterized in that the processor predicts the market effects of the projected consumption for the modified new ingredient by calculating the market penetration. The system of claim 1, characterized in that the processor calculates the economic value of the new or modified ingredient based on the economic value of the ingredients that were displaced during the formulation of lower cost. 22. An animal food market analysis system operable in a network environment to assess the impact of a new ingredient or an ingredient having a modified nutritional composition on the economic value of the ingredient and the economic value of the existing alternative ingredients , the system is characterized because it comprises: means to receive a nutritional profile for the new or modified ingredient; and means to predict a projected economic value for the new or modified ingredient. 23. The animal food market analysis system of claim 22, characterized in that it further includes a means for determining the projected economic value by predicting a projected consumption for the new or modified ingredient. 2 . The animal food market analysis system of claim 23, characterized in that it further comprises a means to predict a market effect for the projected consumption for the new or modified ingredient through which the consumption rates for the existing ingredients can change . 25. The animal food market analysis system of claim 22, characterized in that it further comprises means for transmitting the predicted economic value of the new or modified ingredient through a network to a customer's computer requesting an analysis of the predicted economic value for the new or modified ingredient. 26. The animal feed market analysis system of claim 25, characterized in that the network is the International Network. 27 The animal food market analysis system of claim 22, characterized in that the customer's computer receives the nutritional profile for the new or modified ingredient. 28. The animal food market analysis system in claim 25, characterized in that the client's computer is operatively connected to a network via a network scanning program that includes an application which a client can contract to communicate a request for Start the analysis of the predicted economic value of the new or modified ingredient. 29. The animal food market analysis system of claim 28, characterized in that the customer's computer transmits the nutritional profile to a server computer to initiate the process to determine the economic value of the new or modified ingredient. 30. The animal food market analysis system of claim 29, characterized in that the server computer accesses and incorporates the values of a database containing the stored values that refer to the current market conditions in a region, to determine the economic value of the new or modified ingredient. 31. A system for providing access to an animal feed market analysis system, the system is characterized in that it comprises: a first processing system configured to maintain an information processing unit on the animal feed market, the unit processing information on the animal feed market that receives and processes applications for the valuation of a new or modified animal feed ingredient; and a second processing system configured to transmit a signal requesting information about the animal feed market via a network, the signal that has been transmitted from the second processing system in response to a selection of a hypertext link. 32. The system of claim 31, characterized in that the first processing request is required to contain access information. 33. A system for determining the economic value of a new ingredient or an ingredient having a modified nutritional composition, the system is characterized in that it comprises: an input device configured to receive a nutritional profile for the new or modified ingredient; a data repository configured to access market conditions for animal feed; and a processor configured to determine a projected economic value for the new or modified ingredient. 34. A method of analyzing the animal feed market to assess the impact of a new ingredient or an ingredient having a modified nutritional composition on the economic value of the new or modified ingredient and the economic value of the existing ingredients that could be replaced by the new or modified ingredient, the method is characterized because it includes: receiving a nutritional profile for the new or modified ingredient; and predict a projected economic value of the new or modified ingredient. 35. The method of claim 34, characterized in that predicting an economic value for the new or modified ingredient includes predicting a projected consumption for the new or modified ingredient. 36. The method of claim 35, characterized in that predicting an economic value for the new or modified ingredient includes predicting the market effect for the projected consumption through which the consumption rates for the existing ingredients can change. 37. The method of claim 35, characterized in that predicting the projected consumption for the new or modified ingredient includes using the new or modified ingredient as an input into a lower cost formulation system, wherein the lower cost formulation system calculates mixtures of ingredients given as inputs based on user-defined restrictions such as price and minimum nutritional requirements. 38. The method of claim 37, characterized in that the lower cost formulation system uses an initial projected price for the cost of the new or modified ingredient based on the price of the comparable ingredients. 39. The method of claim 37, characterized in that the lower cost formulation system uses only the ingredients for sale in a market designated by the customer as the entries in the lowest cost formulation system. 40. The method of claim 37, characterized in that the analysis of the lower cost formulation system is carried out using the new or modified ingredient for each food formulation found in a region, wherein a food formulation is a mixture of specific amounts of the ingredients. 41. The method of claim 37, characterized in that each food formulation includes different formulations for different species of animals. 42. The method of claim 37, characterized in that each food formulation includes different formulations for the different stages of development for a specific animal. 43. The method of claim 37, characterized in that predicting the projected consumption for the new or modified ingredient using a lower cost formulation system includes determining the ingredients displaced by the projected consumption of the new or modified ingredient. 44. The method of claim 37, characterized in that predicting the projected consumption for the new or modified ingredient using a formulation system includes calculating the projected volume demand for the new or modified ingredient. 45. The method of claim 44, characterized in that calculating the projected volume demand includes analyzing the regional animal populations for the determination of the number of animals in each population. 46. The method of claim 45, characterized in that analyzing the regional animal populations includes a determination of the stage of development of the animals in the populations. 47. The method of claim 45, characterized in that analyzing the regional animal populations includes a determination of the projected intake of various formulations for animal populations. 48. The method of claim 36, characterized in that, predicting the market effects of the projected consumption for new or modified ingredient, includes evaluating the existing conditions of the animal feed market based on historical, current, and projected conditions. 49. The method of claim 36, characterized in that, predicting the market effects of the projected consumption for the new or modified ingredient, includes analyzing the price and regional availability of the ingredient. 50. The method of claim 36, characterized in that, predicting the market effects of the projected consumption for the new or modified ingredient, includes an analysis of the regional trends for each existing ingredient. 51. The method of claim 36, characterized in that, predicting the market effects of the projected consumption for the new or modified ingredient, includes calculating the probable changes in the price of the existing ingredients based on the introduction of the new or modified ingredient. 52. The method of claim 51, characterized in that determining the economic value of the new or modified ingredient includes recalculating the projected consumption for the new or modified ingredient based on changes in the price of the existing ingredients. 53. The method of claim 36, characterized in that predicting the market effects of the projected consumption for the new or modified ingredient includes calculating the market penetration. 54. The method of claim 35, characterized in that, determining the economic value of the new or modified ingredient is calculated based on the economic value of the ingredients that were displaced during the formulation of lower cost. 55. A method to provide access to an animal feed market analysis system, the method is characterized in that it comprises: using a first processing system to maintain an information processing unit on the animal feed market; processing information on the animal feed market that receives and processes applications for the valuation of a new or modified animal feed ingredient; receiving a signal requesting information about the animal feed market from a remote processing system via a network, the signal that has been transmitted from the remote processing system in response to a selection of a hypermedia link; and use the first system of. processing to operate the processing unit informed about the animal feed market in response to the signal. 56. The method of claim 55, characterized in that, receiving a signal requesting information about the animal feed market, includes a connection procedure to restrict access. 57. A method for determining the economic value of a new ingredient or an ingredient having a modified nutritional composition, the method is characterized in that it comprises the steps of: obtaining a nutritional profile for the new or modified ingredient; investigate market conditions for animal feed; and predict an economic value for the new or modified ingredient. 58. The method of claim 57, characterized in that, predicting the economic value includes determining the projected demand for the new or modified ingredient using an animal feed formulation system. 59. The method of claim 57, characterized in that predicting the economic value includes determining the prices for existing animal feed ingredients. 60. The method of claim 57, characterized in that access to the method is controlled using a connection procedure. 61. The method of claim 57, characterized in that receiving the nutritional profile of the new or modified ingredient includes communication with an operator. 62. The method of claim 57, characterized in that receiving the nutritional profile for the new or modified ingredient includes communication with a computer.
MXPA04009940A 2002-04-12 2003-04-10 System and method for animal feed market analysis. MXPA04009940A (en)

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US10/122,283 US20030195792A1 (en) 2002-04-12 2002-04-12 Method of animal feed market analysis
US10/122,256 US20030195758A1 (en) 2002-04-12 2002-04-12 System for animal feed market analysis
PCT/US2003/011151 WO2003087999A2 (en) 2002-04-12 2003-04-10 System and method for animal feed market analysis

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US8301483B2 (en) * 2008-01-16 2012-10-30 The Procter & Gamble Company Modeling system and method to predict consumer response to a new or modified product
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US6076043A (en) * 1993-09-22 2000-06-13 American Institute Of Nutrition And Management Utilization effectiveness of nutrients in a population
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