KR20220040081A - Meteorological prediction apparatus and method capable of adjusting the parameters of cloud microphysics, and recorded media recording program to perform the same - Google Patents

Abstract

Provided is a meteorological forecasting method that predicts a mixing ratio of a water vapor phase, a cloud phase, an ice phase, a powdery snow phase, a rain phase, and a snow phase or the number concentration of a cloud phase, a rain phase, and a cloud condensation nuclei based on microphysical processes, and performs meteorological forecasting using the mixing ratio of the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, powdery snow phase, rain phase, and snow phase, and the number concentration of the cloud phase, rain phase, and cloud condensation nuclei. An object of the present invention is to provide the meteorological forecasting apparatus, method, and recording medium on which a program for performing the same is recorded, capable of adjusting various required parameters related to binding, melting, condensation, self-conversion, deposition, sublimation, evaporation, ice formation, activation, and sedimentation of cloud microphysical processes.

Description

Meteorological prediction apparatus and method for adjusting parameters of cloud microphysics, and recording medium recording a program for performing the same

The present invention relates to a weather forecasting apparatus and method capable of adjusting parameters of cloud microphysics, and a recording medium recording a program for performing the same, and more particularly, to a weather forecasting apparatus for predicting weather using a cloud microphysical process; It relates to a recording medium recording a method and a program for performing the same.

Accurate informatization of data and improvement of prediction accuracy are important factors in numerical modeling for weather and climate prediction. Accordingly, numerous studies have been conducted to improve accuracy, and Korea is no exception. In particular, in the case of Korea, it is difficult to accurately predict the meteorological field because of its complex topography and the sea on three sides, which causes various weather changes in coastal areas due to sea winds.

The numerical model predicts the grid-scale precipitation by converting the sum of atmospheric water predicted at the surface through cloud microphysics into a unit of precipitation. At this time, atmospheric water refers to cloud drops, raindrops, ice, snowflakes, soft snow, and hail. The properties of the atmospheric water phase are determined by the density of the water phase, the relationship between the size and mass of the water phase, the relationship between the size and the vertical velocity of the water phase, and the number concentration size distribution of the water phase. Precipitation in microphysics not only affects detailed physical processes, but also directly affects surface precipitation, so proper characterization of atmospheric water quality is important for surface precipitation prediction.

In this regard, WDM6 (Weather Research and Forecasting Double-Moment 6-Class) and Likewise, cloud microphysics is widely used worldwide, and it is widely used to simulate medium-scale heavy rainfall systems on the Korean Peninsula and regional-scale precipitation systems.

However, the conventional WDM6 module uses parameters that determine the characteristics of atmospheric water phase (the relationship between the size and mass of the atmospheric water phase, the relationship between the size and the vertical velocity, and the number concentration size distribution), or in detailed microphysical processes such as collision/merging, etc. Because parameters indicating efficiency are omitted or set to values that do not reflect actual physical phenomena, they are not optimized to analyze the effect of each parameter on surface precipitation, and problems such as causing errors and uncertainties occur also do

The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is a weather prediction device capable of adjusting various parameters required in relation to the binding, melting, condensation, self-conversion, deposition, sublimation, evaporation, ice formation, activation and sedimentation of cloud microphysical processes, It is to provide a method and a recording medium recording a program for performing the same.

One aspect of the present invention provides a weather forecasting method using a weather forecasting device for performing parametrization of cloud microphysics, and based on a first microphysical process, water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, rain phase, emergency and snow phase predicting a mixing ratio; predicting the number concentrations of cloud phase, flying, and cloud condensation nuclei based on the second microphysical process; and performing weather forecasting using the mixing ratio of the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, rain phase, emergency, and snow phase, and the number concentration of the cloud phase, emergency, and cloud condensation nuclei.

In addition, the first microphysical process is, between the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, rain phase, flying and snow phase, binding, melting, condensation, self-conversion, deposition, sublimation, evaporation, ice formation, activation and sedimentation. It may be provided to predict the mixing ratio generated by the physical process represented by .

In addition, the second microphysical process is generated by physical processes appearing as binding, melting, condensing, self-conversion, evaporation, activation, and sedimentation between the cloud phase, ice phase, rain phase, fly phase, snow phase, and cloud condensation nuclei. It can be provided to predict the number concentration to be.

In addition, the performing of the weather forecasting may include calculating the surface precipitation by converting the mixing ratio of the ice phase, the rain phase, the emergency phase, and the snow phase into a unit of precipitation.

In addition, the performing of the weather prediction may include calculating a change in the temperature of the atmosphere based on the phase change of atmospheric water appearing in the first microphysical process and the second microphysical process.

Another aspect of the present invention is a computer-readable recording medium in which a computer program is recorded for performing the weather prediction method according to any one of claims 1 to 5.

Another aspect of the present invention, based on the first microphysical process, a mixing ratio calculating unit for predicting the mixing ratio of the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, rain phase, flying phase and snow phase; a number concentration calculator for predicting the number concentration of cloud phase, flight, and cloud condensation nuclei based on the second microphysical process; and a weather forecasting unit for performing weather prediction using the mixing ratio of the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, rain phase, emergency, and snow phase, and the concentration of the number of cloud phase, emergency, and cloud condensation nuclei.

According to one aspect of the present invention described above, by providing a weather prediction apparatus and method capable of adjusting parameters of cloud microphysics and a recording medium recording a program for performing the same, binding, recording, condensation, and self-conversion of cloud microphysics processes , with respect to deposition, sublimation, evaporation, ice formation, activation and settling, various required parameters can be adjusted.

1 is a control block diagram of a weather prediction apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram illustrating a first microphysical process used in the mixing ratio calculator of FIG. 1 .
3 is a schematic diagram illustrating a second microphysical process used in the number concentration calculator of FIG. 1 .
4 is a schematic diagram illustrating a process activated only when the temperature is an image in the first microphysical process of FIG. 2 .
FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram illustrating a process activated only when the temperature is below zero in the first microphysical process of FIG. 2 .
FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram illustrating a process activated only when the temperature is an image in the second microphysical process of FIG. 3 .
7 is a schematic diagram illustrating a process activated only when the temperature is below zero in the second microphysical process of FIG. 3 .
8 is a flowchart of a weather prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS [0012] DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS [0010] DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS [0010] Reference is made to the accompanying drawings, which show by way of illustration specific embodiments in which the present invention may be practiced. These embodiments are described in sufficient detail to enable those skilled in the art to practice the present invention. It should be understood that the various embodiments of the present invention are different but need not be mutually exclusive. For example, certain shapes, structures, and characteristics described herein with respect to one embodiment may be implemented in other embodiments without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. In addition, it should be understood that the location or arrangement of individual components within each disclosed embodiment may be changed without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention. Accordingly, the detailed description set forth below is not intended to be taken in a limiting sense, and the scope of the present invention, if properly described, is limited only by the appended claims, along with all scope equivalents as those claimed. Like reference numerals in the drawings refer to the same or similar functions throughout the various aspects.

Hereinafter, preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described in more detail with reference to the drawings.

1 is a control block diagram of a weather prediction apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention.

The weather prediction apparatus 100 may be an apparatus provided to perform a cloud microphysics process used in a weather prediction model such as Weather Research and Forecasting model Double Momentum (WDM6).

To this end, the weather prediction device 100 can calculate the number concentration of the water vapor phase, the cloud phase, the ice phase, the rain phase, the emergency and the snow phase, or the number concentration of the cloud phase, the emergency phase and the cloud condensation nuclei by using the parameters of cloud microphysics. there is.

At this time, the parameters of cloud microphysics may include parameters representing the characteristics of the atmospheric water phase, such as the relationship between the velocity, mass, and size of the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, dust phase, flying phase, snow phase, and cloud condensation nuclei, etc. In addition, the parameters of cloud microphysics may further include parameters representing the efficiency of microphysical processes, such as the efficiency of water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, rain phase, flying, collision, and cohesion between the snow phase and cloud condensation nuclei. .

Accordingly, the weather prediction device 100 inputs the calculated parameters, the water vapor phase, the cloud phase, the ice phase, the rain phase, the mixing ratio of the emergency and the snow phase, or the number concentration of the cloud phase, the emergency and the cloud condensation nuclei into the weather prediction model, A weather prediction may be performed, or a simulation of a weather prediction model may be performed.

To this end, the weather prediction device 100 includes a central processing unit (CPU), a main memory unit (Main Memory Unit), an auxiliary memory unit (AM: Auxiliary Memory), and an input/output device (Input/Output Device). It may be provided to be implemented through a computer, server, etc. which are arranged to include one or more of the elements.

Meanwhile, performing the weather prediction in the weather prediction apparatus 100 may include calculating surface precipitation for atmospheric water that settles on the surface or calculating a change in atmospheric temperature.

The weather prediction apparatus 100 may include a mixing ratio calculation unit 110 , a number concentration calculation unit 120 , and a weather prediction unit 130 .

The mixing ratio calculator 110 may predict the mixing ratio of the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, rain phase, flying phase, and snow phase based on the first microphysical process.

Here, the first microphysical process is represented by the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, dust phase, between the flying and snow phases, as binding, melting, condensing, self-conversion, deposition, sublimation, evaporation, ice formation, activation, and sedimentation. It may be provided to predict the mixing ratio according to the physical process.

To this end, the mixing ratio calculator 110 may receive a plurality of parameters required in the process of predicting the mixing ratio of the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, rain phase, emergency and snow phase, and also, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 ) may extract parameters required in the process of estimating the mixing ratio of water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, rain phase, emergency and snow phase from a database prepared in advance to include a plurality of parameters.

Accordingly, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 may apply a plurality of parameters to the first microphysical process, and the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 may apply the plurality of parameters to the water vapor phase, cloud phase, and ice phase according to the first microphysical process from the plurality of parameters. Between phase, sapphire phase, fly phase and snow phase, it is possible to predict the mixing ratio according to the physical processes represented by binding, melting, condensation, self-conversion, deposition, sublimation, evaporation, ice formation, activation and sedimentation.

At this time, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 is configured to perform physical processes such as water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, rain phase, binding to emergency and snow phase, recording, condensation, self-conversion, deposition, sublimation, evaporation, ice generation, activation, and sedimentation. Processes can be classified into a plurality of groups.

In this case, the mixing ratio calculator 110 may predict the mixing ratios of the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, rain phase, rain phase, and snow phase for the plurality of groups, respectively.

For example, the mixing ratio calculating unit 110 may include a first group representing Accretion and a second group representing Melting of physical processes for water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, rain phase, emergency, and snow phase. , 3rd group representing Freezing, 4th group representing Autoconversion, 5th group representing Deposition/Sublimation and Evaporation, 6th representing Ice generation It can be classified into a group, a seventh group representing condensation and activation (Condensation/Activation), and an eighth group representing sedimentation.

In Table 1 below, the physical processes classified into 8 groups for the mixing ratio of the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, rain phase, emergency phase and snow phase can be confirmed.

In this case, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 for the first group, the mixing ratio generation rate (Pgaci) by the ice phase binding of the saragi phase, the mixing ratio generation rate (Pgacr) by the emergency binding of the saraggi phase, and the mixing ratio by the cloud phase binding of the salagi phase Formation rate (Pgacw), mixing ratio by emergency ice phase formation (Piacr), mixing ratio by flying cloud phase formation (Praci), mixing ratio by flying snow phase formation (Pracs), mixing ratio by emergency cloud phase binding The formation rate (Pracw), the mixing ratio generation rate (Psaci) by the ice formation of snow, the mixing ratio generation rate (Psacr) by the non-binding of the snow phase, and the mixing ratio generation rate (Psacw) by the cloud formation of the snow phase can be calculated.

In addition, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 for the second group, the mixing ratio generation rate (Pgeml) by the enhanced recording of the saragi phase, the mixing ratio generation rate by the recording of the saragi phase (Pgmlt), the mixing ratio generation rate by the melting of the ice phase (Pimlt), The mixing ratio generation rate (Pseml) by the enhanced recording of the eye image and the mixing ratio generation rate (Psmlt) by the recording of the eye image may be calculated.

In addition, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 for the third group, the mixing ratio generation rate (Pgfrz) by the freezing process from the emergency to the sapphire phase, the mixing ratio production rate (Pihmf) by the homogeneous freezing process, and the mixing ratio by the non-homogeneous freezing process The generation rate (Pihtf) can be calculated.

In addition, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 for the fourth group, the mixing ratio generation rate (Pgaut) by self-conversion from the snow phase to the rain phase, the mixture ratio generation rate (Praut) by the self-switching from the cloud phase to the flight phase (Praut) and from the ice phase The mixing ratio generation rate (Psaut) by self-conversion to the eye image can be calculated.

In addition, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 for the fifth group, the mixing ratio generation rate (Pgdep) by deposition and sublimation of the sagebrush, the mixing ratio generation rate (Pgevp) by evaporation of the molten ragi phase (Pgevp), the mixing ratio generation rate by emergency evaporation and condensation ( Prevp), the mixing ratio generation rate by the transition from emergency to cloud phase due to evaporation (Prevprc), the mixing ratio generation rate by deposition and sublimation of snow (Psdep), and the mixing ratio generation rate by evaporation of the melting snow (Psevp) can be calculated.

In addition, for the sixth group, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 may calculate a mixing ratio generation rate (Pidep) by deposition and sublimation of an ice phase and a mixing ratio generation ratio (Pigen) by a nucleation process from a water vapor phase to an ice phase.

Also, for the seventh group, the mixing ratio calculator 110 may calculate a mixing ratio generation rate (Pcact) by activating cloud condensation nuclei and a mixing ratio generation rate (Pcond) by condensation and evaporation on clouds.

Also, the mixing ratio calculator 110 may calculate a mixing ratio by sedimentation of Rain, Snow, and Graupel for the eighth group.

In this regard, the mixing ratio calculator 110 may calculate each mixing ratio by using the equations of Equations 1 to 8 below.

는 빗방울 응결 방정식에서의 상수를 의미하고,

는 열역학 항을 의미하고,

는 열역학 항을 의미하고,

는 아이스상으로부터 눈상으로의 전환 효율을 의미하고,

는 눈상으로부터 싸라기상으로의 전환 효율을 의미하고,

는 구름상의 속도와 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 싸라기상의 속도와 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 얼음상의 속도와 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 비상의 속도와 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 눈상의 속도와 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 빗방울 응결 방정식에서의 상수를 의미하고,

는 열역학 항을 의미하고,

는 열역학 항을 의미하고,

는 싸라기상의 속도와 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 얼음상의 속도와 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 비상의 속도와 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 눈상의 속도와 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 습윤 공기의 정압비열을 의미하고,

는 수상의 비열을 의미하고,

는 구름상의 질량과 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 싸라기상의 질량과 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 얼음상의 질량과 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 비상의 질량과 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 눈상의 질량과 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 수증기의 확산계수를 의미하고,

는 구름상의 직경을 의미하고,

는 얼음상의 직경을 의미하고,

는 HDC에서 정의한 얼음상의 직경을 의미하고,

는 비상의 직경을 의미하고,

는 구름상의 질량과 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 싸라기상의 질량과 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 얼음상의 질량과 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 비상의 질량과 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 눈상의 질량과 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 비상 결착 효율을 의미하고,

는 비상의 부서짐 효율을 의미하고,

는 싸라기상과 구름상 사이의 충돌/결착 효율을 의미하고,

는 싸라기상과 아이스상 사이의 충돌/결착 효율을 의미하고,

는 싸라기상과 비상 사이의 충돌/결착 효율을 의미하고,

는 얼음상의 평균속도와 혼합비의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 아이스상과 비상 사이의 충돌/결착 효율을 의미하고,

는 비상과 아이스상 사이의 충돌/결착 효율을 의미하고,

는 비상과 눈상 사이의 충돌/결착 효율을 의미하고,

는 눈상과 구름상 사이의 충돌/결착 효율을 의미하고,

는 눈상과 아이스상 사이의 충돌/결착 효율을 의미하고,

는 눈상과 비상 사이의 충돌/결착 효율을 의미하고,

는 얼음상의 속도와 밀도의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 비상의 속도와 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 중력 가속도를 의미하고,

는 Long's 결착 커널 계수를 의미하고,

는 Long's 결착 커널 계수를 의미하고,

는 공기의 열전도율을 의미하고,

는 구름응결핵 활성화 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 결합 시 잠열을 의미하고,

는 응결 시 잠열을 의미하고,

는 구름상의 절편을 의미하고,

는 싸라기상의 절편을 의미하고,

는 비상의 절편을 의미하고,

는 눈상의 절편을 의미하고,

는 구름상의 수 농도를 의미하고,

는 구름 응결핵의 수 농도를 의미하고,

는 얼음상의 수 농도를 의미하고,

는 비상의 수 농도를 의미하고,

는 구름 응결핵의 초기 값을 의미하고,

는 혼합비를 의미하고,

는 구름상의 혼합비를 의미하고,

는 구름상의 혼합비의 임계값을 의미하고,

는 싸라기상의 혼합비를 의미하고,

는 얼음상의 혼합비를 의미하고,

는 얼음핵의 혼합비를 의미하고,

는 비상의 혼합비를 의미하고,

는 눈상의 혼합비를 의미하고,

는 얼음상의 포화 값을 의미하고,

는 눈상의 자가 전환 임계값을 의미하고,

는 구름상의 포화 값을 의미하고,

는 수증기 기체상수를 의미하고,

는 활성화된 구름 응결핵 방울의 반경을 의미하고,

는 얼음 대비 포화비를 의미하고,

는 수증기 대비 포화비를 의미하고,

는 구름 응결핵 활성화를 위한 최대 포화 값을 의미하고,

는 온도를 의미하고,

는 기준 온도를 의미하고,

는 싸라기상의 질량 가중된 침강속도를 의미하고,

는 얼음상의 질량 가중된 침강속도를 의미하고,

는 비상의 질량 가중된 침강속도를 의미하고,

는 눈상의 질량 가중된 침강속도를 의미하고,

는 싸라기상의 질량 가중된 연직평균 침강속도를 의미하고,

는 비상의 질량 가중된 연직평균 침강속도를 의미하고,

는 눈상의 질량 가중된 연직평균 침강속도를 의미하고,

는 완전한 감마 함수를 의미하고,

는 미세물리과정 적분 시간을 의미하고,

는 구름상 크기 분포의 기울기를 의미하고,

는 싸라기상 크기 분포의 기울기를 의미하고,

는 비상 크기 분포의 기울기를 의미하고,

는 눈상 크기 분포의 기울기를 의미하고,

는 구름상의 수 농도 분포의 형태를 표현하는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 싸라기상의 수 농도 분포의 형태를 표현하는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 비상의 수 농도 분포의 형태를 표현하는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 눈상의 수 농도 분포의 형태를 표현하는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 동적 점성을 의미하고,

는 원주율을 의미하고,

는 기준 상태의 공기 밀도를 의미하고,

는 공기의 밀도를 의미하고,

는 싸라기상의 밀도를 의미하고,

는 비상의 밀도를 의미하고,

는 눈상의 밀도를 의미하고,

는 구름상의 밀도를 의미한다.In Equations 1 to 8,

is the constant in the raindrop condensation equation,

is the thermodynamic term,

is the thermodynamic term,

is the conversion efficiency from the ice phase to the snow phase,

means the conversion efficiency from snow phase to saragi phase,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and size of the cloud,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and size of the saragi phase,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and size of the ice sheet,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and the size of the emergency,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and size of the eye image,

is the constant in the raindrop condensation equation,

is the thermodynamic term,

is the thermodynamic term,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and size of the saragi phase,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and size of the ice sheet,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and the size of the emergency,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and size of the eye image,

is the static pressure specific heat of wet air,

means the specific heat of the water phase,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the cloud,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the saragi phase,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the ice phase,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the flight,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the eye image,

is the diffusion coefficient of water vapor,

is the diameter of the cloud phase,

is the diameter of the ice phase,

is the diameter of the ice phase defined by the HDC,

is the diameter of the flight,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the cloud,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the saragi phase,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the ice phase,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the flight,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the eye image,

means emergency locking efficiency,

is the emergency breaking efficiency,

is the collision/coalescing efficiency between the saragi phase and the cloud phase,

is the collision/coalescing efficiency between the saragi phase and the ice phase,

means the collision/coalescing efficiency between saragisang and emergency,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the average speed of the ice phase and the mixing ratio,

is the collision/coalescing efficiency between the ice phase and the emergency,

means the collision/coalescing efficiency between the emergency and the ice phase,

means the collision / binding efficiency between the emergency and the snow phase,

is the collision/coalescing efficiency between the snow image and the cloud image,

is the collision/coalescing efficiency between the snow phase and the ice phase,

means the collision / binding efficiency between the snow phase and the emergency,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the velocity and density of the ice sheet,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and the size of the emergency,

is the gravitational acceleration,

is Long's binding kernel coefficient,

is Long's binding kernel coefficient,

is the thermal conductivity of air,

is the CCN activation parameter,

is the latent heat of bonding,

is the latent heat of condensation,

means the intercept on the cloud,

means the intercept of saragi,

means the emergency intercept,

means the segment of the eye,

is the number concentration in the cloud,

is the number concentration of cloud coagulation nuclei,

is the number concentration in the ice phase,

is the emergency number concentration,

is the initial value of cloud condensation nuclei,

is the mixing ratio,

is the mixing ratio of the cloud phase,

is the threshold value of the mixing ratio of the cloud phase,

means the mixing ratio of saragi phase,

is the mixing ratio of the ice phase,

is the mixing ratio of ice cores,

is the emergency mixing ratio,

means the mixing ratio of the eye phase,

is the saturation value of the ice phase,

is the self-transition threshold of the eye,

is the saturation value on the cloud,

is the water vapor gas constant,

is the radius of the activated CCN droplet,

is the ice-to-saturation ratio,

is the saturation ratio to water vapor,

is the maximum saturation value for cloud coagulation nuclei activation,

is the temperature,

is the reference temperature,

is the mass-weighted sedimentation rate of the saragi phase,

is the mass-weighted sedimentation rate of the ice phase,

is the emergency mass-weighted settling velocity,

is the mass-weighted sedimentation velocity of the snow phase,

is the mass-weighted vertical mean sedimentation velocity of the saragi phase,

is the mass-weighted vertical average sedimentation velocity of the flight,

is the mass-weighted vertical average sedimentation velocity of the snow phase,

means the complete gamma function,

is the microphysical process integration time,

is the slope of the cloud-like size distribution,

denotes the slope of the size distribution of Sasaragi,

is the slope of the emergency size distribution,

is the slope of the eye image size distribution,

is a parameter expressing the shape of the number concentration distribution on the cloud,

is a parameter expressing the shape of the number concentration distribution of the saragi phase,

is a parameter expressing the shape of the emergency number concentration distribution,

is a parameter expressing the shape of the number concentration distribution on the eye,

means dynamic viscosity,

is the circumference ratio,

is the air density in the reference state,

is the density of air,

means the density of the saragi phase,

is the emergency density,

is the density of the eye image,

is the density of the cloud phase.

In this case, the variables or values used in Equations 1 to 8 may be preset to arbitrary values according to the meaning used in each Equation.

The number concentration calculator 120 may predict the number concentration of cloud phase, flight, and cloud condensation nuclei based on the second microphysical process.

Here, the second microphysical process is the number concentration according to the physical process represented by the cloud phase, the ice phase, the rain phase, the fly phase, the snow phase, and the condensation, melting, condensation, self-conversion, evaporation, activation, and sedimentation between the cloud phase and the cloud condensation nuclei. It may be prepared to predict.

To this end, the number concentration calculator 120 may receive a plurality of parameters required in the process of predicting the number concentration of cloud phase, emergency, and cloud condensation nuclei, and also, the number concentration calculator 120 includes a plurality of parameters It is also possible to extract parameters required in the process of predicting the number concentration of cloud phase, emergency, and cloud condensation nuclei from a database prepared in advance to include

Accordingly, the number concentration calculator 120 can apply a plurality of parameters to the second microphysical process, and the number concentration calculator 120 uses the plurality of parameters according to the second microphysical process to form clouds and ice. Between , , , , , , , , and , and between cloud coagulation nuclei, water concentration can be predicted according to the physical processes represented by coalescence, melting, condensation, self-conversion, evaporation, activation, and sedimentation.

At this time, the water concentration calculation unit 120 performs physical processes such as cloud phase, ice phase, rain phase, emergency, snow phase and cloud condensation nuclei, binding, recording, condensation, self-conversion, evaporation, activation, and sedimentation in a plurality of groups. can be classified as

In this case, the number concentration calculator 120 may predict, respectively, the number concentrations of cloud phase, flight, and cloud condensation nuclei for a plurality of groups.

For example, the number concentration calculating unit 120 includes a first group representing Acretion and a second group representing Melting of physical processes for cloud phase, ice phase, sapphire phase, emergency, snow phase, and cloud condensation nuclei. Group, a third group representing Freezing, a fourth group representing Autoconversion, a fifth group representing Evaporation, a sixth group representing Activation, and a third group representing Sedimentation It can be classified into 7 groups.

In Table 2 below, you can check the physical processes classified into 7 groups for cloud phase, ice phase, dust phase, emergency, snow phase, and cloud condensation nuclei.

In this case, for the first group, the water concentration calculation unit 120 determines the number concentration generation rate (Nccol) by self-capture of the cloud phase, the water concentration generation rate (Ngacr) by the emergency binding of the saragi phase, and the cloud phase binding of the saragi phase. Water concentration generation rate (Ngacw), water concentration generation rate by emergency binding on ice (Niacr), water concentration formation rate by emergency cloud phase binding (Nracw), water concentration formation rate by flying self-capture (Nrcol), snow phase The water concentration generation rate (Nsacr) by emergency binding and the water concentration production rate (Nsacw) by cloud formation on snow can be calculated.

In addition, for the second group, the water concentration calculation unit 120 calculates the water concentration generation rate (Ngeml) by the enhanced melting of the saragi image, the water concentration generation rate by the recording of the saragi image (Ngmlt), and the water concentration generation rate by the melting of the ice phase. (Nimlt), the water concentration generation rate by the enhanced recording on the eye (Nseml), and the water concentration generation rate by the recording on the eye (Nsmlt) can be calculated.

In addition, the water concentration calculation unit 120 for the third group, the water concentration generation rate (Ngfrz) by the freezing process from the emergency to the freezing process, the water concentration generation rate (Nihmf) by the homogeneous freezing process, and the non-homogeneous freezing process It is possible to calculate the water concentration generation rate (Nihtf) by

Also, the water concentration calculation unit 120 may calculate the water concentration generation rate Nraut by self-switching from cloud top to flight for the fourth group.

Also, the water concentration calculator 120 may calculate a water concentration generation rate Ncevp by evaporation on clouds and a water concentration generation rate Nrevp by emergency evaporation for the fifth group.

In addition, the water concentration calculator 120 may calculate a water concentration generation rate Ncact by activation of cloud coagulation nuclei for the sixth group.

Also, the water concentration calculation unit 120 may calculate the water concentration due to emergency sedimentation for the seventh group.

In this regard, the number concentration calculator 120 may calculate each number concentration by using the equations of Equations 9 to 15 below.

Variables or values used in Equations 9 to 15 may have the same meaning as variables or values used in Equations 1 to 8. Accordingly, the variables or values used in Equations 9 to 15 may be preset to arbitrary values according to the meaning used in each Equation.

The weather forecasting unit 130 may perform weather forecasting by using the mixing ratio of the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, light phase, emergency, and snow phase, and the number concentration of cloud phase, emergency, and cloud condensation nuclei.

Here, the weather prediction may be to predict the surface precipitation indicating the amount of precipitation accumulated on the surface of the earth, and the weather prediction may be to predict the temperature change of the atmosphere.

In this regard, the weather prediction unit 130 may calculate the surface precipitation by converting the mixing ratio of the ice phase, the rain phase, the emergency, and the snow phase into a unit of precipitation.

In addition, the weather prediction unit 130 may calculate the surface precipitation by calculating the sum of the predicted mixing ratios for the ice phase, the rain phase, the emergency phase, and the snow phase, respectively. Surface precipitation may be calculated by using a database prepared in advance so that surface precipitation is matched according to the predicted mixing ratio for phase, emergency, and snow phase, respectively.

Meanwhile, the weather prediction unit 130 may calculate a change in the temperature of the atmosphere based on the phase change of atmospheric water appearing in the first microphysical process and the second microphysical process.

Here, the atmospheric water phase may mean a water vapor phase, a cloud phase, an ice phase, a saragi phase, an emergency, a snow phase, and a cloud condensation nucleus, etc. Accordingly, the phase change is a water vapor phase, a cloud phase, an ice phase, a saragi phase, an emergency , may refer to a phenomenon in which atmospheric water phases such as snow phases and cloud condensation nuclei change into other atmospheric water phases by absorbing or releasing heat from the surrounding atmosphere.

Accordingly, the weather prediction unit 130 may calculate the temperature change of the atmosphere by using the amount of heat emitted or absorbed from the atmospheric water according to the phase change of the atmospheric water.

In this case, the weather prediction unit 130 may calculate the temperature change of the atmosphere using a database prepared in advance so that the temperature that changes according to the phase change of the atmospheric water is matched.

FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram illustrating a first microphysical process used in the mixing ratio calculator of FIG. 1 .

Referring to Figure 2, the water vapor phase (Water vapor), cloud phase (Cloud water), ice phase (Cloud ice), saragi phase (Graupel), rain (Rain) and snow phase (Snow) between the binding, melting, condensation, Physical processes such as self-conversion, deposition, sublimation, evaporation, ice formation, activation, and sedimentation can be identified.

As such, the first microphysical process appears as water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, rain phase, between the flying and snow phases, binding, melting, condensation, self-conversion, deposition, sublimation, evaporation, ice formation, activation, and sedimentation. It may be provided to predict a mixing ratio generated by a physical process.

In this case, the first microphysical process may include a process of being activated when the temperature of the atmosphere is zero, a process of being activated when the temperature of the atmosphere is below zero, and a process of being activated regardless of the temperature of the atmosphere.

Here, the process activated when the atmospheric temperature is zero can be understood as a process that is activated at a temperature higher than the freezing point of water. Melting (Pgeml), Evaporation of Melting Snow (Pgevp), Melting Snow (Pgmlt), Melting Ice (Pimlt), Enhanced Melting of Snow (Pseml), Evaporation of Melting Snow (Psevp) and Melting Snow (Psmlt) It may include processes such as

In addition, the process activated when the atmospheric temperature is below zero can be understood as a process that is activated at a temperature lower than the freezing point of water. (Pgaci), emergency binding (Pgacr), cloud phase binding (Pgacw), self-conversion from snow to larvae (Pgaut), deposition and sublimation (Pgdep), freezing to larvae phase (Pgacw) Pgfrz), emergency binding of the ice phase (Piacr), deposition and sublimation of the ice phase (Pidep), the nucleation process from the water vapor phase to the ice phase (Pigen), the homogeneous freezing process (Pihmf), the non-homogeneous freezing process (Pihtf), Flying on cloud (Praci), flying on snow (Pracs), on ice (Psaci), on snow (Psacr), on cloud (Psacw), self from ice to snow It may include processes such as conversion (Psaut) and deposition and sublimation (Psdep) on the eye.

In addition, the process that is activated regardless of the temperature of the atmosphere can be understood as a process that is activated at a temperature lower than the freezing point of water and higher than the freezing point of water. Condensation Nucleus Activation (Pcact), Condensation and Evaporation on Clouds (Pcond), Condensation on Clouds (Pracw) of Emergency, Self-transition from Above Clouds (Praut), Evaporation and Condensation (Prevp) of Emergency and Evaporation in Emergency It may include a process such as transformation into a cloud image (Prevprc).

Accordingly, the mixing ratio calculator 110 may predict the mixing ratio of the water vapor phase, the cloud phase, the ice phase, the rain phase, the flying phase, and the snow phase based on the first microphysical process.

3 is a schematic diagram illustrating a second microphysical process used in the number concentration calculator of FIG. 1 .

Referring to FIG. 3 , physical processes appearing as binding, melting, condensing, self-conversion, evaporation, activation, and sedimentation between cloud phase, ice phase, dust phase, emergency, snow phase, and cloud condensation nuclei can be confirmed.

In this way, the second microphysical process calculates the water concentration according to the physical process represented by the cloud phase, the ice phase, the rain phase, the rain phase, the snow phase, and the condensation, melting, condensation, self-conversion, evaporation, activation, and sedimentation between the snow phase and cloud condensation nuclei. It may be prepared to predict.

In this case, the second microphysical process may include a process of being activated when the temperature of the atmosphere is zero, a process of being activated when the temperature of the atmosphere is below zero, and a process of being activated regardless of the temperature of the atmosphere.

Here, the process activated when the atmospheric temperature is zero can be understood as a process that is activated at a temperature higher than the freezing point of water. It can include processes such as binding (Ngacw), enhanced recording of saragi (Ngeml), recording of saragi (Ngmlt), recording of ice (Nimlt), enhanced recording of snow (Nseml), and recording of snow (Nsmlt). there is.

In addition, the process activated when the temperature of the atmosphere is below zero can be understood as a process that is activated at a temperature lower than the freezing point of water. Ngacr), emergency freezing on ice (Niacr), emergency freezing on snow (Nsacr), cloud formation on snow (Nsacw), freezing to glacial freezing (Ngfrz), homogeneous freezing (Nihmf) and non-homogeneous It may include a process such as a freezing process (Nihtf).

In addition, the process that is activated regardless of the temperature of the atmosphere can be understood as a process that is activated at a temperature lower than the freezing point of water and higher than the freezing point of water. Self-capture of phase (Nccol), engagement on cloud (Nracw), self-capture of flight (Nrcol), self-transfer from on-cloud to emergency (Nraut), evaporation on cloud (Ncevp), evaporation of flight (Nrevp) and It may include processes such as cloud coagulation nucleus activation (Ncact).

Accordingly, the number concentration calculator 120 may predict the number concentration of cloud phase, flight, and cloud condensation nuclei based on the second microphysical process.

4 is a schematic diagram illustrating a process activated only when the temperature is an image in the first microphysical process of FIG. 2 .

The process activated when the atmospheric temperature is zero can be understood as a process that is activated at a temperature higher than the freezing point of water. ), evaporation of melting snow (Pgevp), melting of ice (Pgmlt), melting of ice (Pimlt), enhanced melting of snow (Pseml), evaporation of melting snow (Psevp) and melting of snow (Psmlt), etc. may include

FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram illustrating a process activated only when the temperature is below zero in the first microphysical process of FIG. 2 .

The process activated when the atmospheric temperature is below zero can be understood as a process that is activated at a temperature lower than the freezing point of water. ), emergency binding (Pgacr), cloud phase binding (Pgacw), self-transition from snow to larvae (Pgaut), deposition and sublimation (Pgdep), freezing process from larvae to larvae (Pgfrz) , emergency binding of the ice phase (Piacr), deposition and sublimation of the ice phase (Pidep), the nucleation process from the water vapor phase to the ice phase (Pigen), the homogeneous freezing process (Pihmf), the non-homogeneous freezing process (Pihtf), the emergency Consolidation on clouds (Praci), on snow (Pracs), on ice (Psaci), on snow (Psacr), on clouds on snow (Psacw), self-transition from ice to snow ( Psaut) and deposition and sublimation (Psdep) on the eye.

FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram illustrating a process activated only when the temperature is an image in the second microphysical process of FIG. 3 .

The process activated when the atmospheric temperature is zero can be understood as a process that is activated at a temperature higher than the freezing point of water. ), enhanced recording of saragi (Ngeml), recording of saragi (Ngmlt), recording of ice (Nimlt), enhanced recording of snow (Nseml), and recording of snow (Nsmlt).

7 is a schematic diagram illustrating a process activated only when the temperature is below zero in the second microphysical process of FIG. 3 .

The process activated when the atmospheric temperature is below zero can be understood as a process that is activated at a temperature lower than the freezing point of water. , emergency freezing on ice (Niacr), emergency freezing on snow (Nsacr), cloud phase on snow (Nsacw), freezing to glacial freezing (Ngfrz), homogeneous freezing (Nihmf) and non-homogeneous freezing (Nihtf) and the like may be included.

8 is a flowchart of a weather prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Since the weather prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention proceeds on substantially the same configuration as the weather prediction apparatus 100 shown in FIG. 1 , the same reference numerals for the same components as the weather prediction apparatus 100 of FIG. 1 . , and repeated descriptions will be omitted.

In the weather prediction method using a weather prediction device that performs parameterization of cloud microphysics, the mixing ratio calculating unit 110 calculates the mixing ratio of the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, rain phase, emergency and snow phase based on the first microphysical process. Predicting, the number concentration calculating unit 120 predicting the number concentration of cloud phase, emergency, and cloud condensation nuclei based on the second microphysical process, and the weather forecasting unit 130 performing the water vapor phase, cloud phase, and ice phase , and performing weather forecasting using the mixing ratio of the rain phase, the emergency phase, and the snow phase, and the concentration of the number of the cloud phase, the emergency phase, and the cloud condensation nuclei, and the like.

At this time, the weather forecasting method may perform weather forecasting using some factors calculated in the step of predicting the mixing ratio and the step of predicting the water concentration, and the weather forecasting method also predicts the mixing ratio or the number concentration. Weather prediction may also be performed using some factors calculated in the step.

Hereinafter, a weather forecasting method using a weather forecasting apparatus that performs parameterization of cloud microphysics will be described in detail with reference to FIG. 8 .

The weather prediction method includes the steps of performing weather prediction by calculating the sedimentation process of the mixing ratio and water concentration (621), calculating the microphysical process when the temperature is an image (622), the microphysical process when the temperature is below zero It may include calculating ( 623 ), performing weather prediction by calculating nucleation and condensation processes ( 624 ), and determining whether an iteration termination condition is satisfied ( 625 ).

The step 621 of performing weather prediction by calculating the sedimentation process of the mixing ratio and water concentration includes the sedimentation process of the mixing ratio of the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, sand phase, emergency, and snow phase calculated by the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 and , it may be a step in which the weather prediction unit 130 calculates surface precipitation according to the result of the sedimentation process of the cloud phase, emergency, and number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei calculated by the number concentration calculation unit 120 .

In the step 622 of calculating the microphysical process when the temperature is an image, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 uses the first microphysical process when the temperature is an image to include a water vapor phase, a cloud phase, an ice phase, a sand phase, It may be a step of calculating the mixing ratio of the flying phase and the snow phase, and calculating the number concentration of the cloud phase, the flying phase, and the cloud condensation nuclei by using the second microphysical process when the number concentration calculator 120 is an image temperature.

In the step 623 of calculating the microphysical process when the temperature is below zero, the mixing ratio calculating unit 110 uses the first microphysical process when the temperature is below zero to obtain a water vapor phase, a cloud phase, an ice phase, an ice phase, It may be a step of calculating the mixing ratio of the flying phase and the snow phase, and calculating the number concentration of the cloud phase, the flying phase, and the cloud condensation nuclei by using the second microphysical process when the number concentration calculator 120 is below zero.

The step of performing weather prediction by calculating the nucleation and condensation process (624) includes the nucleation and condensation process of the mixing ratio of the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, sand phase, emergency and snow phase calculated by the mixing ratio calculation unit 110; According to the result of the nucleation and condensation process of the number concentration of cloud phase, emergency, and cloud condensation nuclei calculated by the number concentration calculation unit 120 , the weather prediction unit 130 may calculate a change in atmospheric temperature.

Determining whether the iterative end condition is satisfied ( 625 ) is a step of terminating the weather prediction according to the weather prediction method when a preset iteration end condition is satisfied for each step of the above-described weather prediction method can

Here, the iteration termination condition is when an arbitrary value calculated by the mixing ratio calculating unit 110 , the number concentration calculating unit 120 , and the weather forecasting unit 130 reaches a preset threshold value for the corresponding value. It may be set to end weather prediction.

Such a weather prediction method may be implemented as an application or implemented in the form of program instructions that may be executed through various computer components and recorded in a computer-readable recording medium. The computer-readable recording medium may include program instructions, data files, data structures, etc. alone or in combination.

The program instructions recorded on the computer readable recording medium are specially designed and configured for the present invention, and may be known and used by those skilled in the art of computer software.

Examples of the computer-readable recording medium include hard disks, magnetic media such as floppy disks and magnetic tapes, optical recording media such as CD-ROMs and DVDs, and magneto-optical media such as floppy disks. media), and hardware devices specially configured to store and execute program instructions, such as ROM, RAM, flash memory, and the like.

Examples of program instructions include not only machine language codes such as those generated by a compiler, but also high-level language codes that can be executed by a computer using an interpreter or the like. The hardware device may be configured to operate as one or more software modules for carrying out the processing according to the present invention, and vice versa.

Although the above has been described with reference to the embodiments, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various modifications and changes can be made to the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention as set forth in the following claims. will be able

100: weather forecasting device
110: mixing ratio calculator
120: number concentration calculator
130: weather forecasting unit

Claims (7)

A weather forecasting method using a weather forecasting device for performing parameterization of cloud microphysics, the method comprising:
Predicting a mixing ratio of a water vapor phase, a cloud phase, an ice phase, a rain phase, a flying phase, and a snow phase based on the first microphysical process;
predicting the number concentrations of cloud phase, flying, and cloud condensation nuclei based on the second microphysical process; and
A weather forecasting method comprising the step of performing weather forecasting using the mixing ratio of the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, rain phase, emergency, and snow phase, and the number concentration of the cloud phase, emergency, and cloud condensation nuclei.
According to claim 1, wherein the first microphysical process,
Between the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, rain phase, fly phase, and snow phase, the mixing ratio generated by physical processes represented by binding, melting, condensation, self-conversion, deposition, sublimation, evaporation, ice formation, activation and sedimentation A weather forecasting method, arranged to predict.
According to claim 1, wherein the second microphysical process,
between the cloud phase, the ice phase, the rain phase, the fly phase, the snow phase, and the cloud condensation nuclei, provided to predict the concentration of water produced by physical processes represented by coalescence, melting, condensation, self-conversion, evaporation, activation, and sedimentation. Prediction method.
The method of claim 1, wherein performing the weather prediction comprises:
and calculating the surface precipitation by converting the mixing ratio of the ice phase, the rain phase, the emergency and the snow phase into a unit of precipitation.
The method of claim 1, wherein performing the weather prediction comprises:
and calculating a change in the temperature of the atmosphere based on the phase change of atmospheric water appearing in the first microphysical process and the second microphysical process.
A computer-readable recording medium on which a computer program is recorded for performing the weather forecasting method according to any one of claims 1 to 5.
a mixing ratio calculator for predicting a mixing ratio of a water vapor phase, a cloud phase, an ice phase, a rain phase, a flying phase, and a snow phase based on the first microphysical process;
a number concentration calculator for predicting the number concentration of cloud phase, flight, and cloud condensation nuclei based on the second microphysical process; and
and a weather forecasting unit configured to perform weather prediction using the mixing ratio of the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, rain phase, emergency, and snow phase, and the concentration of the number of cloud phase, emergency, and cloud condensation nuclei.

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