KR102489288B1 - Meteorological prediction apparatus and method capable of adjusting the parameters of cloud microphysics, and recorded media recording program to perform the same - Google Patents

Abstract

Based on the microphysical process, the mixing ratio of vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight and snow phase or the number concentration of cloud phase, flight and cloud condensation nuclei is predicted, and the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, Provided is a weather forecasting method that performs weather forecasting using the mixture ratio of emergency and snow phases and the number concentrations of cloud phase, emergency, and cloud condensation nuclei.

Description

Meteorological forecasting device and method capable of adjusting parameters of cloud microphysics, and a recording medium recording a program for performing the same

The present invention relates to a weather forecasting device and method capable of adjusting parameters of cloud microphysics, and to a recording medium recording a program for performing the same, and more particularly, to a weather forecasting device that predicts weather using a cloud microphysical process, It relates to a recording medium recording a method and a program for performing the same.

Accurate informatization of data and improved accuracy of prediction are important factors in numerical modeling for weather and climate forecasting. Accordingly, numerous studies have been conducted to improve accuracy, and Korea is no exception. In particular, in the case of Korea, it is difficult to accurately predict the meteorological field because the topography is complicated and three sides are made up of sea, and various meteorological changes appear in coastal areas due to sea and land winds.

The numerical model predicts grid-scale precipitation by converting the sum of atmospheric water levels predicted at the surface through cloud microphysics into a unit of precipitation. At this time, the atmospheric water phase refers to cloud droplets, raindrops, ice, snowflakes, hailstones, and the like. The properties of the atmospheric water phase are determined by the density of the water phase, the relationship between the size and mass of the water column, the relationship between the size and vertical velocity of the water column, and the number concentration size distribution of the water phase. Since it not only affects detailed precipitation physics in microphysics, but also directly affects surface precipitation, the correct characterization of atmospheric water is important for predicting surface precipitation.

In this regard, WDM6 (Weather Research and Forecasting Double-Moment 6-Class) and Likewise, cloud microphysics is widely used around the world, and is widely used for simulating meso-scale torrential rain systems and regional-scale precipitation systems in the Korean Peninsula.

However, the conventional WDM6 module has parameters that determine the characteristics of atmospheric water phase (relationship between size and mass of atmospheric water phase, relationship between size and vertical velocity, number concentration and size distribution), and detailed microphysical processes such as collision/merging. Parameters representing efficiency are omitted or set to values that do not reflect actual physical phenomena, so the effect of each parameter on surface precipitation is not optimized for analysis, causing errors and uncertainties. do it too

The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is related to the consolidation, recording, condensation, self-conversion, deposition, sublimation, evaporation, ice formation, activation, and sedimentation of cloud microphysical processes, a weather forecasting device capable of adjusting various parameters required, It is to provide a recording medium recording a method and a program for performing the method.

One aspect of the present invention is a weather forecasting method using a weather forecasting device that performs parameterization of cloud microphysics, based on a first microphysical process of vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight and snow phase. Prediction of the mixing ratio; predicting the number concentrations of cloud phase, flight and cloud condensation nuclei based on the second microphysical process; and predicting the weather using the mixture ratio of the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight phase, and snow phase, and the number concentrations of the cloud phase, flight phase, and cloud condensation nuclei.

In addition, the first microphysical process includes consolidation, melting, condensation, self-conversion, deposition, sublimation, evaporation, ice formation, activation, and precipitation between the vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight and snow phase. It may be provided to predict the mixing ratio generated by the physical process represented by

In addition, the second microphysical process is generated by physical processes such as adhesion, melting, condensation, self-conversion, evaporation, activation, and sedimentation between the cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight, snow phase, and cloud condensation nuclei. It may be provided to predict the number concentration to be.

In addition, the performing of weather forecasting may include calculating surface precipitation by converting a mixture ratio of the ice phase, hail phase, hail phase, and snow phase into a unit of precipitation.

Also, the performing of weather forecasting may include calculating a temperature change of the atmosphere based on a phase change of the atmospheric water phase appearing in the first microphysical process and the second microphysical process.

Another aspect of the present invention is a computer-readable recording medium on which a computer program is recorded for performing the weather prediction method according to any one of claims 1 to 5.

Another aspect of the present invention includes a mixing ratio calculator for predicting a mixing ratio of water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight phase and snow phase based on the first microphysical process; a number concentration calculator for predicting the number concentrations of cloud phase, flight and cloud condensation nuclei based on the second microphysical process; and a weather forecasting unit that performs weather forecasting using the mixture ratio of the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight and snow phases and the number concentrations of the cloud phase, flight and cloud condensation nuclei.

According to one aspect of the present invention described above, by providing a weather forecasting device and method capable of adjusting parameters of cloud microphysics and a recording medium recording a program for performing the cloud microphysics, consolidation, recording, condensation, and self-conversion of cloud microphysical processes. , deposition, sublimation, evaporation, ice formation, activation and sedimentation, the various parameters required can be tuned.

1 is a control block diagram of a weather prediction device according to an embodiment of the present invention.
2 is a schematic diagram showing a first microphysical process used in the mixing ratio calculation unit of FIG. 1;
3 is a schematic diagram showing a second microphysical process used in the number concentration calculation unit of FIG. 1;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram showing a process activated only when the temperature is zero in the first microphysical process of FIG. 2 .
FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram showing a process activated only when the temperature is below zero in the first microphysical process of FIG. 2 .
6 is a schematic diagram showing a process activated only when the temperature is zero in the second microphysical process of FIG. 3 .
FIG. 7 is a schematic diagram showing a process activated only when the temperature is below zero in the second microphysical process of FIG. 3 .
8 is a flowchart of a weather prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS The detailed description of the present invention which follows refers to the accompanying drawings which illustrate, by way of illustration, specific embodiments in which the present invention may be practiced. These embodiments are described in sufficient detail to enable one skilled in the art to practice the present invention. It should be understood that the various embodiments of the present invention are different from each other but are not necessarily mutually exclusive. For example, specific shapes, structures, and characteristics described herein may be implemented in another embodiment without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention in connection with one embodiment. Additionally, it should be understood that the location or arrangement of individual components within each disclosed embodiment may be changed without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. Accordingly, the detailed description set forth below is not to be taken in a limiting sense, and the scope of the present invention, if properly described, is limited only by the appended claims, along with all equivalents as claimed by those claims. Like reference numbers in the drawings indicate the same or similar function throughout the various aspects.

Hereinafter, preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described in more detail with reference to the drawings.

1 is a control block diagram of a weather prediction device according to an embodiment of the present invention.

The weather prediction device 100 may be a device provided to perform a cloud microphysics process used in a weather prediction model such as WDM6 (Weather Research and Forecasting model Double Momentum).

To this end, the weather forecasting apparatus 100 may calculate the mixture ratio of water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, rain and snow phase, or the number concentration of cloud phase, flight and cloud condensation nuclei using parameters of cloud microphysics. there is.

At this time, the parameters of the cloud microphysics may include parameters representing the characteristics of the atmospheric phase, such as the relationship between the speed, mass, and size of the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight, snow phase, and cloud condensation nuclei, In addition, the parameters of cloud microphysics may further include parameters representing the efficiency of microphysical processes, such as the efficiency of vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight, snow phase, and collision between cloud condensation nuclei and condensation. .

Accordingly, the weather forecasting device 100 inputs the calculated parameter, water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, emergency and snow phase mixture ratio or number concentration of cloud phase, emergency and cloud condensation nuclei into the weather prediction model, A weather prediction may be performed or a weather prediction model may be simulated.

To this end, the weather forecasting device 100 includes a central processing unit (CPU), a main memory unit, an auxiliary memory (AM), and an input/output device. It may be prepared to be implemented through a computer, server, etc. prepared to include one or more of the elements.

Meanwhile, performing weather forecasting by the weather forecasting apparatus 100 may include calculating surface precipitation for the atmospheric water phase that settles on the surface or calculating a temperature change of the atmosphere.

The weather prediction device 100 may include a mixture ratio calculation unit 110 , a number concentration calculation unit 120 and a weather prediction unit 130 .

The mixing ratio calculation unit 110 may predict the mixing ratio of the vapor phase, the cloud phase, the ice phase, the hail phase, the flight phase and the snow phase based on the first microphysical process.

Here, the first microphysical process appears as consolidation, melting, condensation, self-conversion, deposition, sublimation, evaporation, ice formation, activation, and sedimentation between the vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight and snow phase. It may be provided to predict the mixing ratio according to the physical process.

To this end, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 may receive a plurality of parameters required in the process of predicting the mixing ratio of the vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight and snow phase, and also, the mixing ratio calculator 110 ) may extract parameters required in the process of predicting the mixing ratio of vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight and snow phase from a database prepared in advance to include a plurality of parameters.

Accordingly, the mixing ratio calculating unit 110 may apply a plurality of parameters to the first microphysical process, and the mixing ratio calculating unit 110 may determine the vapor phase, the cloud phase, and the ice phase according to the first microphysical process from the plurality of parameters. Among phases, hail phase, flying phase, and snow phase, the mixing ratio according to physical processes such as adhesion, melting, condensation, self conversion, deposition, sublimation, evaporation, ice formation, activation, and sedimentation can be predicted.

At this time, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 calculates physical properties such as consolidation, melting, condensation, self-conversion, deposition, sublimation, evaporation, ice formation, activation, and sedimentation for the vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight and snow phase. Processes can be classified into a plurality of groups.

In this case, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 may predict mixing ratios of vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight phase, and snow phase for each of the plurality of groups.

For example, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 calculates the physical processes of vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight, and snow phase as a first group representing accretion and a second group representing melting. , the third group representing Freezing, the fourth group representing Autoconversion, the fifth group representing Deposition/Sublimation and Evaporation, and the sixth representing Ice generation. It can be classified into a seventh group representing condensation and activation (Condensation/Activation) and an eighth group representing sedimentation.

In Table 1 below, the physical processes classified into eight groups for the mixing ratios of water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight phase and snow phase can be identified.

In this case, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 calculates, for the first group, the mixing ratio production rate (Pgaci) due to the ice-phase consolidation of the hail phase, the mixing ratio production rate (Pgacr) due to the emergency hail formation, and the mixing ratio due to the cloud-form consolidation of the hail phase. Formation rate (Pgacw), mixing rate by emergency consolidation of ice phase (Piacr), mixing rate by emergency consolidation (Praci), mixing ratio by conjunctive snow phase consolidation (Pracs), mixing ratio by emergency consolidation of cloud phase The production rate (Pracw), the mixing ratio production rate (Psaci) due to ice phase adhesion on the snow, the mixing ratio formation rate (Psacr) due to emergency adhesion on the snow, and the mixing ratio formation rate (Psacw) due to cloud phase adhesion on the snow can be calculated.

In addition, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 calculates, for the second group, a mixing ratio generation rate (Pgeml) due to enhanced recording of the hail phase, a mixing ratio generation rate (Pgmlt) due to the melting of the hail phase, a mixing ratio generation rate due to the melting of the ice phase (Pimlt), The mixing ratio generation rate (Pseml) by the enhanced recording of the eye image and the mixing ratio generation rate (Psmlt) by the recording of the eye image can be calculated.

In addition, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 calculates, for the third group, the mixing ratio generation rate (Pgfrz) by the freezing-to-hail freezing process, the mixing ratio production rate (Pihmf) by the homogeneous freezing process, and the mixing ratio by the non-homogeneously freezing process The production rate (Pihtf) can be calculated.

In addition, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 calculates the mixing ratio generation rate (Pgaut) by self conversion from the snow phase to the hail phase, the mixing ratio generation rate (Praut) by self conversion from the cloud phase to the flight phase, and the ice phase for the fourth group. The mixing ratio production rate (Psaut) by self-conversion to the eye image can be calculated.

In addition, for the fifth group, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 calculates a mixing ratio generation rate (Pgdep) by deposition and sublimation of hail phase, a mixing ratio generation rate (Pgevp) by evaporation of melting hail phase, and a mixing ratio generation rate (by emergency evaporation and condensation) Prevp), the mixing ratio formation rate by conversion from flight to cloud formation due to evaporation (Prevprc), the mixing ratio formation rate by deposition and sublimation of snow phase (Psdep), and the mixing ratio formation rate by evaporation of melting snow phase (Psevp) can be calculated.

In addition, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 may calculate a mixing ratio formation rate (Pidep) by deposition and sublimation of the ice phase and a mixing ratio formation rate (Pigen) by the nucleation process from the water vapor phase to the ice phase for the sixth group.

In addition, the mixing ratio calculator 110 may calculate a mixing ratio generation rate (Pcact) due to activation of cloud condensation nuclei and a mixing ratio generation rate (Pcond) due to cloud condensation and evaporation for the seventh group.

In addition, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 may calculate the mixing ratio for the eighth group by sedimentation of rain, snow, and hail.

In this regard, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 may calculate each mixing ratio using Equations 1 to 8 below.

는 빗방울 응결 방정식에서의 상수를 의미하고,

는 열역학 항을 의미하고,

는 열역학 항을 의미하고,

는 아이스상으로부터 눈상으로의 전환 효율을 의미하고,

는 눈상으로부터 싸라기상으로의 전환 효율을 의미하고,

는 구름상의 속도와 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 싸라기상의 속도와 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 얼음상의 속도와 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 비상의 속도와 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 눈상의 속도와 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 빗방울 응결 방정식에서의 상수를 의미하고,

는 열역학 항을 의미하고,

는 열역학 항을 의미하고,

는 싸라기상의 속도와 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 얼음상의 속도와 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 비상의 속도와 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 눈상의 속도와 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 습윤 공기의 정압비열을 의미하고,

는 수상의 비열을 의미하고,

는 구름상의 질량과 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 싸라기상의 질량과 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 얼음상의 질량과 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 비상의 질량과 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 눈상의 질량과 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 수증기의 확산계수를 의미하고,

는 구름상의 직경을 의미하고,

는 얼음상의 직경을 의미하고,

는 HDC에서 정의한 얼음상의 직경을 의미하고,

는 비상의 직경을 의미하고,

는 구름상의 질량과 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 싸라기상의 질량과 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 얼음상의 질량과 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 비상의 질량과 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 눈상의 질량과 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 비상 결착 효율을 의미하고,

는 비상의 부서짐 효율을 의미하고,

는 싸라기상과 구름상 사이의 충돌/결착 효율을 의미하고,

는 싸라기상과 아이스상 사이의 충돌/결착 효율을 의미하고,

는 싸라기상과 비상 사이의 충돌/결착 효율을 의미하고,

는 얼음상의 평균속도와 혼합비의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 아이스상과 비상 사이의 충돌/결착 효율을 의미하고,

는 비상과 아이스상 사이의 충돌/결착 효율을 의미하고,

는 비상과 눈상 사이의 충돌/결착 효율을 의미하고,

는 눈상과 구름상 사이의 충돌/결착 효율을 의미하고,

는 눈상과 아이스상 사이의 충돌/결착 효율을 의미하고,

는 눈상과 비상 사이의 충돌/결착 효율을 의미하고,

는 얼음상의 속도와 밀도의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 비상의 속도와 크기의 관계를 나타내는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 중력 가속도를 의미하고,

는 Long's 결착 커널 계수를 의미하고,

는 Long's 결착 커널 계수를 의미하고,

는 공기의 열전도율을 의미하고,

는 구름응결핵 활성화 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 결합 시 잠열을 의미하고,

는 응결 시 잠열을 의미하고,

는 구름상의 절편을 의미하고,

는 싸라기상의 절편을 의미하고,

는 비상의 절편을 의미하고,

는 눈상의 절편을 의미하고,

는 구름상의 수 농도를 의미하고,

는 구름 응결핵의 수 농도를 의미하고,

는 얼음상의 수 농도를 의미하고,

는 비상의 수 농도를 의미하고,

는 구름 응결핵의 초기 값을 의미하고,

는 혼합비를 의미하고,

는 구름상의 혼합비를 의미하고,

는 구름상의 혼합비의 임계값을 의미하고,

는 싸라기상의 혼합비를 의미하고,

는 얼음상의 혼합비를 의미하고,

는 얼음핵의 혼합비를 의미하고,

는 비상의 혼합비를 의미하고,

는 눈상의 혼합비를 의미하고,

는 얼음상의 포화 값을 의미하고,

는 눈상의 자가 전환 임계값을 의미하고,

는 구름상의 포화 값을 의미하고,

는 수증기 기체상수를 의미하고,

는 활성화된 구름 응결핵 방울의 반경을 의미하고,

는 얼음 대비 포화비를 의미하고,

는 수증기 대비 포화비를 의미하고,

는 구름 응결핵 활성화를 위한 최대 포화 값을 의미하고,

는 온도를 의미하고,

는 기준 온도를 의미하고,

는 싸라기상의 질량 가중된 침강속도를 의미하고,

는 얼음상의 질량 가중된 침강속도를 의미하고,

는 비상의 질량 가중된 침강속도를 의미하고,

는 눈상의 질량 가중된 침강속도를 의미하고,

는 싸라기상의 질량 가중된 연직평균 침강속도를 의미하고,

는 비상의 질량 가중된 연직평균 침강속도를 의미하고,

는 눈상의 질량 가중된 연직평균 침강속도를 의미하고,

는 완전한 감마 함수를 의미하고,

는 미세물리과정 적분 시간을 의미하고,

는 구름상 크기 분포의 기울기를 의미하고,

는 싸라기상 크기 분포의 기울기를 의미하고,

는 비상 크기 분포의 기울기를 의미하고,

는 눈상 크기 분포의 기울기를 의미하고,

는 구름상의 수 농도 분포의 형태를 표현하는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 싸라기상의 수 농도 분포의 형태를 표현하는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 비상의 수 농도 분포의 형태를 표현하는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 눈상의 수 농도 분포의 형태를 표현하는 매개변수를 의미하고,

는 동적 점성을 의미하고,

는 원주율을 의미하고,

는 기준 상태의 공기 밀도를 의미하고,

는 공기의 밀도를 의미하고,

는 싸라기상의 밀도를 의미하고,

는 비상의 밀도를 의미하고,

는 눈상의 밀도를 의미하고,

는 구름상의 밀도를 의미한다.In Equations 1 to 8,

is a constant in the raindrop condensation equation,

denotes a thermodynamic term,

denotes a thermodynamic term,

Means the conversion efficiency from the ice phase to the snow phase,

Means the conversion efficiency from the snow phase to the hail phase,

is a parameter representing the relationship between speed and size on the cloud,

means a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and size of hail phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and size of the ice phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and magnitude of an emergency,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between speed and size of the eye image,

is a constant in the raindrop condensation equation,

denotes a thermodynamic term,

denotes a thermodynamic term,

means a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and size of hail phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and size of the ice phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and magnitude of an emergency,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between speed and size of the eye image,

Means the specific heat at constant pressure of humid air,

means the specific heat of the award,

is a parameter representing the relationship between mass and size on the cloud,

means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of hail phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the ice phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the flight,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the eye image,

is the diffusion coefficient of water vapor,

is the diameter of the cloud,

is the diameter of the ice phase,

is the diameter of the ice phase defined by HDC,

is the diameter of the flight,

is a parameter representing the relationship between mass and size on the cloud,

means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of hail phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the ice phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the flight,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the eye image,

Means the contingency binding efficiency,

Means emergency breaking efficiency,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the hail phase and the cloud phase,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the hail phase and the ice phase,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between hail phase and flight,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the average speed of the ice phase and the mixing ratio,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the ice phase and the flight,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the flight and the ice phase,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the flight and the snow phase,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the snow phase and the cloud phase,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the snow phase and the ice phase,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the snow phase and the emergency,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and density of the ice phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and magnitude of an emergency,

is the gravitational acceleration,

denotes the Long's conclusive kernel coefficient,

denotes the Long's conclusive kernel coefficient,

is the thermal conductivity of air,

Means the cloud condensation nucleus activation parameter,

means the latent heat of bonding,

is the latent heat of condensation,

denotes the intercept on the cloud,

Means the fragment of hail phase,

denotes the intercept of the emergency,

means the intercept of the eye,

is the number concentration on the cloud,

Means the number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei,

is the number concentration of the ice phase,

is the emergency number concentration,

denotes the initial value of cloud condensation nuclei,

is the mixing ratio,

is the mixing ratio in the cloud phase,

Means the threshold value of the mixing ratio in the cloud,

Means the mixing ratio of hail phase,

is the mixing ratio of the ice phase,

is the mixing ratio of ice cores,

is the emergency mixing ratio,

Means the mixing ratio of the eye phase,

is the saturation value of the ice phase,

Means the self-conversion threshold on the eye,

denotes the saturation value on the cloud,

is the gas constant of water vapor,

is the radius of the activated cloud condensation nucleus droplet,

is the saturation ratio to ice,

is the saturation ratio to water vapor,

Means the maximum saturation value for activation of cloud condensation nuclei,

means temperature,

means the reference temperature,

Means the mass-weighted sedimentation rate of hail phase,

is the mass-weighted sedimentation rate of the ice phase,

is the emergency mass-weighted sedimentation rate,

Means the mass-weighted sedimentation rate of the snow phase,

Means the mass-weighted vertical average sedimentation velocity of hail phase,

is the mass-weighted vertical mean sedimentation velocity of flight,

Means the mass-weighted vertical average sedimentation velocity of the snow phase,

denotes the complete gamma function,

Means the microphysical process integration time,

Means the slope of the cloud size distribution,

Means the slope of the hail size distribution,

is the slope of the emergency size distribution,

Means the slope of the eye image size distribution,

Means a parameter expressing the shape of the number concentration distribution on the cloud,

Means a parameter expressing the shape of the number concentration distribution of hail phase,

Means a parameter expressing the form of non-emergency number concentration distribution,

Means a parameter expressing the shape of the number concentration distribution on the eye,

Means the dynamic viscosity,

is the circumference ratio,

is the density of air in the reference state,

is the density of air,

means the density of hail phase,

is the emergency density,

means the density of the eye image,

is the cloud density.

At this time, the variables or values used in Equations 1 to 8 may be previously set to arbitrary values according to the meaning used in each equation.

The number concentration calculation unit 120 may predict the number concentrations of cloud phase, flight and cloud condensation nuclei based on the second microphysical process.

Here, the second microphysical process measures the number concentration according to physical processes such as consolidation, melting, condensation, self conversion, evaporation, activation, and sedimentation between cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight, snow phase, and cloud condensation nuclei. It can be arranged to predict.

To this end, the number concentration calculation unit 120 may receive a plurality of parameters required in the process of predicting the number concentrations of cloud phase, flight and cloud condensation nuclei, and also, the number concentration calculation unit 120 may receive a plurality of parameters Parameters required in the process of predicting the number and concentration of cloud phase, emergency, and cloud condensation nuclei may be extracted from a database prepared in advance to include .

Accordingly, the number concentration calculating unit 120 may apply a plurality of parameters to the second microphysical process, and the number concentration calculating unit 120 may apply the plurality of parameters to the cloud phase or the ice phase according to the second microphysical process. , among hail phases, flight phases, snow phases and cloud condensation nuclei, number concentrations can be predicted according to physical processes such as condensation, melting, condensation, self conversion, evaporation, activation, and sedimentation.

At this time, the number concentration calculator 120 performs physical processes such as consolidation, melting, condensation, self-conversion, evaporation, activation, and sedimentation among a cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight, snow phase, and cloud condensation nuclei into a plurality of groups. can be classified as

In this case, the number concentration calculation unit 120 may predict the number concentrations of cloud phase, flight and cloud condensation nuclei for a plurality of groups, respectively.

For example, the number concentration calculation unit 120 calculates the physical processes for cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight phase, snow phase, and cloud condensation nuclei in a first group representing Accretion and a second group representing Melting. group, the third group representing Freezing, the fourth group representing Autoconversion, the fifth group representing Evaporation, the sixth group representing Activation, and the sixth representing Sedimentation. It can be classified into 7 groups.

In Table 2 below, the physical processes classified into seven groups for cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight, snow phase, and cloud condensation nucleus can be confirmed.

In this case, the number concentration calculation unit 120 calculates, for the first group, the number concentration generation rate (Nccol) by self-acquisition of the cloud phase, the number concentration generation rate (Ngacr) by the emergency settling of the hail phase, and the cloud formation rate of the hail phase. water concentration production rate by flight (Ngacw), water concentration production rate by flight consolidation on ice (Niacr), flight cloud flight consolidation (Nracw), flight self-acquisition water concentration production rate (Nrcol), snow phase The water concentration production rate (Nsacr) by emergency settling and the water concentration production rate (Nsacw) by cloud-like settling on snow can be calculated.

In addition, the number concentration calculation unit 120 calculates, for the second group, the number concentration generation rate (Ngeml) by the enhanced melting of the hail phase, the number concentration generation rate (Ngmlt) by the melting of the hail phase, and the number concentration generation rate by the melting of the ice phase. (Nimlt), number concentration production rate (Nseml) by enhanced recording of the eye image, and number concentration production rate (Nsmlt) by recording of the eye image can be calculated.

In addition, for the third group, the number concentration calculation unit 120 calculates the number concentration generation rate (Ngfrz) by the freezing process from the emergency to the hail phase, the number concentration generation rate (Nihmf) by the homogeneous freezing process, and the non-homogeneous freezing process The number concentration production rate (Nihtf) can be calculated by

In addition, the water concentration calculation unit 120 may calculate the water concentration generation rate Nraut for the fourth group by self-switching from cloud to flight.

In addition, the water concentration calculation unit 120 may calculate a water concentration generation rate (Ncevp) due to cloud evaporation and a water concentration generation rate (Nrevp) due to flight evaporation for the fifth group.

Also, the number concentration calculation unit 120 may calculate the number concentration generation rate Ncact due to activation of cloud condensation nuclei for the sixth group.

Also, the number concentration calculation unit 120 may calculate the number concentration due to the emergency sedimentation for the seventh group.

In this regard, the number concentration calculation unit 120 may calculate each number concentration using the formulas of Equations 9 to 15 below.

The variables or values used in Equations 9 to 15 may have the same meaning as the variables or values used in Equations 1 to 8. Accordingly, the variables or values used in Equations 9 to 15 may be previously set to arbitrary values according to the meaning used in each Equation.

The weather forecasting unit 130 may perform weather prediction using a mixture ratio of water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight and snow phases, and number concentrations of cloud phase, flight and cloud condensation nuclei.

Here, weather forecasting may be prediction of surface precipitation representing the amount of precipitation accumulated on the ground surface, and weather forecasting may be forecasting temperature change of the atmosphere.

In this regard, the weather forecasting unit 130 may calculate surface precipitation by converting a mixing ratio of ice phase, hail phase, hail phase, and snow phase into a unit of precipitation.

In addition, the weather prediction unit 130 may calculate surface precipitation through a sum operation of predicted mixture ratios for the ice phase, the hail phase, the emergency and the snow phase, respectively, and the weather forecasting unit 130 may calculate the ice phase, hail Surface precipitation may be calculated using a database prepared in advance so that surface precipitation is matched according to predicted mixing ratios for phase, emergency, and snow phases, respectively.

Meanwhile, the weather forecasting unit 130 may calculate a temperature change of the atmosphere based on phase changes of the atmospheric water phase appearing in the first microphysical process and the second microphysical process.

Here, the atmospheric water phase may mean water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight, snow phase, cloud condensation nucleus, etc. It can refer to a phenomenon in which atmospheric water phases, such as snowflakes and cloud condensation nuclei, absorb or release heat from the surrounding atmosphere to change into other atmospheric water phases.

Accordingly, the weather forecasting unit 130 may calculate the temperature change of the atmosphere using the amount of heat emitted or absorbed from the atmospheric water phase according to the phase change of the atmospheric water phase.

In this case, the weather forecasting unit 130 may calculate the temperature change of the atmosphere using a database prepared in advance so that the temperature changing according to the phase change of the atmospheric water level is matched.

2 is a schematic diagram showing a first microphysical process used in the mixing ratio calculation unit of FIG. 1;

Referring to FIG. 2, consolidation, recording, condensation, Physical processes such as self-conversion, deposition, sublimation, evaporation, ice formation, activation and sedimentation can be identified.

As such, the first microphysical process appears as consolidation, melting, condensation, self-conversion, deposition, sublimation, evaporation, ice formation, activation, and sedimentation between the vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight and snow phase. It may be provided to predict the mixing ratio generated by the physical process.

In this case, the first microphysical process may include a process activated when the atmospheric temperature is zero, a process activated when the atmospheric temperature is below zero, and a process activated regardless of the atmospheric temperature.

Here, the process activated when the atmospheric temperature is zero can be understood as a process activated at a temperature higher than the freezing point of water. Melting (Pgeml), evaporation of melting hail (Pgevp), melting of hail (Pgmlt), melting of ice (Pimlt), enhanced melting of snow (Pseml), evaporation of melting snow (Psevp) and melting of snow (Psmlt) etc. may be included.

In addition, the process activated when the atmospheric temperature is below freezing can be understood as a process activated at a temperature lower than the freezing point of water. (Pgaci), hail phase emergency consolidation (Pgacr), hail phase cloud consolidation (Pgacw), snow phase to hail phase self conversion (Pgaut), hail phase deposition and sublimation (Pgdep), hail phase freezing process ( Pgfrz), emergency consolidation of ice phase (Piacr), deposition and sublimation of ice phase (Pidep), nucleation process from vapor phase to ice phase (Pigen), homogeneous freezing process (Pihmf), non-homogeneous freezing process (Pihtf), Conjunction on snow (Praci), Conjunction on snow (Pracs), Conjunction on ice (Psaci), Conjunction on snow (Psacr), Conjunction on snow (Psacw), Self from ice to snow It may include processes such as conversion (Psaut) and deposition and sublimation on the eye (Psdep).

In addition, the process activated regardless of atmospheric temperature can be understood as a process activated at a temperature lower than the freezing point of water and a temperature higher than the freezing point of water. Condensation Nucleus Activation (Pcact), Cloud Condensation and Evaporation (Pcond), Emergency Cloud Phase Consolidation (Pracw), Self-Transfer from Cloud Phase to Emergency (Praut), Emergency Evaporation and Condensation (Prevp), and Emergencies with Evaporation It may include a process such as conversion into a cloud (Prevprc).

Accordingly, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 may predict the mixing ratio of the water vapor phase, the cloud phase, the ice phase, the hail phase, the flight phase and the snow phase based on the first microphysical process.

3 is a schematic diagram showing a second microphysical process used in the number concentration calculation unit of FIG. 1;

Referring to FIG. 3, it can be seen that physical processes appearing as consolidation, melting, condensation, self conversion, evaporation, activation, and sedimentation among cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight, snow phase, and cloud condensation nuclei.

As such, the second microphysical process determines the water concentration according to physical processes such as condensation, melting, condensation, self conversion, evaporation, activation, and sedimentation between cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight, snow phase, and cloud condensation nuclei. It can be arranged to predict.

In this case, the second microphysical process may include a process activated when the atmospheric temperature is zero, a process activated when the atmospheric temperature is below zero, and a process activated regardless of the atmospheric temperature.

Here, the process activated when the atmospheric temperature is zero can be understood as a process activated at a temperature higher than the freezing point of water. It may include processes such as adhesion (Ngacw), enhanced recording on hail (Ngeml), recording on hail (Ngmlt), recording on ice (Nimlt), enhanced recording on snow (Nseml), and recording on snow (Nsmlt). there is.

In addition, the process activated when the atmospheric temperature is below freezing can be understood as a process activated at a temperature lower than the freezing point of water, and such a process activated when the atmospheric temperature is below freezing is the emergency cohesion of the hail phase ( Ngacr), emergency consolidation in ice phase (Niacr), emergency consolidation in snow phase (Nsacr), cloud consolidation in snow phase (Nsacw), emergency to hail freezing process (Ngfrz), homogeneous freezing process (Nihmf) and non-homogeneously It may include a process such as a freezing process (Nihtf).

In addition, the process activated regardless of atmospheric temperature can be understood as a process activated at a temperature lower than the freezing point of water and a temperature higher than the freezing point of water. phase self-acquisition (Nccol), emergency cloud phase consolidation (Nracw), emergency self-acquisition (Nrcol), cloud phase self-transfer to emergency (Nraut), cloud phase evaporation (Ncevp), emergency evaporation (Nrevp) and It may include processes such as activation of cloud condensation nuclei (Ncact).

Accordingly, the number concentration calculation unit 120 may predict the number concentrations of cloud phase, flight and cloud condensation nuclei based on the second microphysical process.

FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram showing a process activated only when the temperature is zero in the first microphysical process of FIG. 2 .

The process activated when the atmospheric temperature is zero can be understood as a process activated at a temperature higher than the freezing point of water. ), evaporation of melting hail (Pgevp), melting of hail (Pgmlt), melting of ice (Pimlt), enhanced melting of snow (Pseml), evaporation of melting snow (Psevp) and melting of snow (Psmlt). can include

FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram showing a process activated only when the temperature is below zero in the first microphysical process of FIG. 2 .

The process activated when the atmospheric temperature is below freezing can be understood as a process activated at a temperature lower than the freezing point of water. ), hail phase emergency consolidation (Pgacr), hail phase cloud consolidation (Pgacw), snow phase to hail phase self conversion (Pgaut), hail phase deposition and sublimation (Pgdep), hail phase freezing process (Pgfrz) , emergency consolidation of ice phase (Piacr), deposition and sublimation of ice phase (Pidep), nucleation process from vapor phase to ice phase (Pigen), homogeneous freezing process (Pihmf), non-homogeneous freezing process (Pihtf), emergency Consolidation of cloud phase (Praci), Conjunction of emergency snow phase (Pracs), Conjunction of ice phase of snow (Psaci), Conjunction of emergency phase of snow (Psacr), Conjunction of cloud phase of snow (Psacw), Self transition from ice phase to snow phase ( Psaut) and eye image deposition and sublimation (Psdep).

6 is a schematic diagram showing a process activated only when the temperature is zero in the second microphysical process of FIG. 3 .

The process activated when the atmospheric temperature is zero can be understood as a process activated at a temperature higher than the freezing point of water. ), enhanced recording on hail (Ngeml), recording on hail (Ngmlt), recording on ice (Nimlt), enhanced recording on snow (Nseml), and recording on snow (Nsmlt).

FIG. 7 is a schematic diagram showing a process activated only when the temperature is below zero in the second microphysical process of FIG. 3 .

The process activated when the atmospheric temperature is below freezing can be understood as a process activated at a temperature lower than the freezing point of water. , emergency consolidation in ice (Niacr), emergency consolidation in snow (Nsacr), cloud consolidation in snow (Nsacw), emergency to hail freezing (Ngfrz), homogeneous freezing (Nihmf) and non-homogeneous freezing (Nihtf) and the like.

8 is a flowchart of a weather prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Since the weather forecasting method according to an embodiment of the present invention is performed on substantially the same components as the weather forecasting apparatus 100 shown in FIG. , and repeated descriptions will be omitted.

In the weather forecasting method using a weather forecasting device that parameterizes cloud microphysics, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 calculates the mixing ratio of water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight phase and snow phase based on the first microphysical process. The step of predicting, the step of predicting the number concentrations of the cloud phase, flight and cloud condensation nuclei based on the second microphysical process by the number concentration calculation unit 120, and the step of predicting the number concentrations of the cloud phase, flight and cloud condensation nuclei by the weather forecasting unit 130 in the water vapor phase, cloud phase, and ice phase , predicting the weather using the mixing ratio of hail, flight, and snow phases and the number concentrations of the cloud, flight, and cloud condensation nuclei.

At this time, the weather forecasting method may perform weather forecasting using some elements calculated in the step of predicting the mixing ratio and the step of predicting the number concentration. In addition, the weather forecasting method may predict the mixing ratio or the number concentration. Weather prediction may be performed using some of the factors calculated in the step.

Hereinafter, referring to FIG. 8 , a weather forecasting method using a weather forecasting device that performs parameterization of cloud microphysics will be described in detail.

The weather forecasting method includes a step 621 of performing weather prediction by calculating the sedimentation process of the mixing ratio and number concentration, a step 622 of calculating a microphysical process when the temperature is zero, and a microphysical process when the temperature is below zero. It may include calculating (623) nucleation and condensation processes to perform weather prediction (624), and determining whether an iteration end condition is satisfied (625).

The step 621 of calculating the sedimentation process of the mixture ratio and the water concentration to perform weather prediction is the sedimentation process of the mixture ratio of the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, emergency and snow phase calculated by the mixture ratio calculation unit 110 and , The weather forecasting unit 130 may calculate surface precipitation according to the result of the sedimentation process of the number concentrations of cloud phase, flight, and cloud condensation nuclei calculated by the number concentration calculation unit 120.

In step 622 of calculating the microphysical process when the temperature is zero, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 uses the first microphysical process when the temperature is zero, It may be a step of calculating the mixing ratio of the flight phase and the snow phase, and calculating the number concentrations of the cloud phase, flight phase, and cloud condensation nuclei by using the second microphysical process when the number concentration calculator 120 has a temperature of zero.

In the step 623 of calculating the microphysical process when the temperature is below zero, the mixing ratio calculation unit 110 uses the first microphysical process when the temperature is below zero to determine the vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, It may be a step of calculating the mixing ratio of the flight phase and the snow phase, and calculating the number concentrations of the cloud phase, flight phase, and cloud condensation nuclei by using the second microphysical process when the temperature is below zero by the number concentration calculating unit 120 .

The step 624 of predicting the weather by calculating the nucleation and condensation process includes the nucleation and condensation process of the mixing ratio of the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, emergency and snow phase calculated by the mixing ratio calculation unit 110, Depending on the result of the nucleation and condensation process of the number concentrations of cloud phase, flight, and cloud condensation nuclei calculated by the number concentration calculation unit 120, the weather forecasting unit 130 may calculate a temperature change of the atmosphere.

The step 625 of determining whether the iteration end condition is satisfied is a step of terminating the weather prediction according to the weather forecasting method when a previously set repetition end condition is satisfied for each step of the weather forecasting method described above. can

Here, the repetition end condition is when an arbitrary value calculated by the mixing ratio calculation unit 110, the number concentration calculation unit 120, and the weather forecasting unit 130 reaches a preset threshold value for the corresponding value. It can also be set to end weather prediction.

Such a weather prediction method may be implemented as an application or implemented in the form of program instructions that can be executed through various computer components and recorded on a computer-readable recording medium. The computer readable recording medium may include program instructions, data files, data structures, etc. alone or in combination.

Program instructions recorded on the computer-readable recording medium may be those specially designed and configured for the present invention, or those known and usable to those skilled in the art of computer software.

Examples of computer-readable recording media include magnetic media such as hard disks, floppy disks and magnetic tapes, optical recording media such as CD-ROMs and DVDs, and magneto-optical media such as floptical disks. media), and hardware devices specially configured to store and execute program instructions, such as ROM, RAM, flash memory, and the like.

Examples of program instructions include high-level language codes that can be executed by a computer using an interpreter or the like as well as machine language codes such as those produced by a compiler. The hardware device may be configured to act as one or more software modules to perform processing according to the present invention and vice versa.

Although the above has been described with reference to embodiments, it will be understood that those skilled in the art can variously modify and change the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention described in the claims below. You will be able to.

100: weather forecasting device
110: mixing ratio calculation unit
120: number concentration calculation unit
130: weather forecasting unit

Claims (7)

In the weather forecasting method using a weather forecasting device that performs parameterization of cloud microphysics,
Mixing ratio of water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight phase and snow phase based on the formula derived through input of the characteristics of atmospheric water phase required for the first microphysical process and a plurality of parameters related to the efficiency of the microphysical process predicting;
Predicting the concentration of the number of cloud phase, flight and cloud condensation nuclei based on the formula derived from the input of a plurality of parameters related to the characteristics of the atmospheric water phase and the efficiency of the microphysical process required for the second microphysical process; and
Performing weather prediction using the mixture ratio of the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight and snow phase and the number concentration of the cloud phase, flight and cloud condensation nuclei,
The first microphysical process,
Between the vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight and snow phase, the mixing ratio generated by physical processes such as consolidation, melting, condensation, self conversion, deposition, sublimation, evaporation, ice formation, activation and sedimentation prepared to predict
In the step of predicting the mixing ratio,
It is possible to predict the mixing ratio of water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight and snow phase for a plurality of groups, and to use parameter values related to atmospheric phase characteristics and microphysical process efficiency [ Calculated through Equation 1] to [Equation 8],
The plurality of groups
The first group represents condensation, the second group represents melting, the third group represents condensation, the fourth group represents self-transformation, and deposition. , classified into a fifth group representing sublimation and evaporation, a sixth group representing ice formation, a seventh group representing condensation and activation, and an eighth group representing sedimentation,
In the step of predicting the mixing ratio,
For the first group, the mixing ratio production rate (Pgaci) due to the ice-phase consolidation of the hail phase, the mixing ratio production rate (Pgacr) due to the emergency consolidation of the hail phase, the mixing ratio production rate (Pgacw) due to the cloud-phase consolidation of the hail phase, and the emergency consolidation of the ice phase Mixing rate due to emergency cloud formation (Piacr), mixing rate due to emergency cloud adhesion (Praci), mixing rate due to emergency snow adhesion (Pracs), mixing rate due to emergency cloud adhesion (Pracw), ice phase adhesion on snow Calculate the mixing ratio production rate (Psaci), the mixing ratio production rate (Psacr) due to emergency adhesion on the snow, and the mixing ratio production rate (Psacw) due to cloud adhesion on the snow,
For the second group, the mixing ratio production rate due to the enhanced recording of the hail phase (Pgeml), the mixing ratio generation rate due to the recording of the hail phase (Pgmlt), the mixing ratio generation rate due to the melting of the ice phase (Pimlt), and the mixing ratio due to the enhanced recording of the snow phase Calculate the production rate (Pseml) and the mixing ratio production rate (Psmlt) by recording on the eye,
For the third group, the mixing ratio formation rate (Pgfrz) by the freezing process from flying to hail, the mixing ratio formation rate (Pihmf) by the homogeneous freezing process, and the mixing ratio formation rate (Pihtf) by the non-homogeneous freezing process are calculated,
For the fourth group, the mixing ratio production rate by self conversion from snow phase to hail phase (Pgaut), the mixing ratio generation rate by self conversion from cloud phase to flight phase (Praut), and the mixing ratio by self conversion from ice phase to snow phase Calculate the production rate (Psaut),
For the fifth group, the mixing ratio formation rate by deposition and sublimation of hail phase (Pgdep), the mixing ratio formation rate by evaporation of melting hail phase (Pgevp), the mixing ratio formation rate by emergency evaporation and condensation (Prevp), in emergency due to evaporation Calculate the mixing ratio formation rate by conversion into a cloud (Prevprc), the mixing ratio formation rate by deposition and sublimation of the snow phase (Psdep), and the mixing ratio formation rate by evaporation of the melting snow phase (Psevp),
For the sixth group, a mixing ratio formation rate (Pidep) by deposition and sublimation of the ice phase and a mixing ratio formation rate (Pigen) by the nucleation process from the water vapor phase to the ice phase are calculated,
For the seventh group, a mixing ratio generation rate (Pcact) due to activation of cloud condensation nuclei and a mixing ratio generation rate (Pcond) due to cloud condensation and evaporation are calculated;
For the eighth group, a weather prediction method for calculating a mixing ratio due to sedimentation of rain, snow, and graupel.
[Equation 1]

[Equation 2]

[Equation 3]

[Equation 4]

[Equation 5]

[Equation 6]

[Equation 7]

[Equation 8]

(In Equations 1 to 8,

is a constant in the raindrop condensation equation,

denotes a thermodynamic term,

denotes a thermodynamic term,

Means the conversion efficiency from the ice phase to the snow phase,

Means the conversion efficiency from the snow phase to the hail phase,

is a parameter representing the relationship between speed and size on the cloud,

means a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and size of hail phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and size of the ice phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and magnitude of an emergency,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between speed and size of the eye image,

is a constant in the raindrop condensation equation,

denotes a thermodynamic term,

denotes a thermodynamic term,

means a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and size of hail phase,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and size of the ice phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and magnitude of an emergency,

is a parameter representing the relationship between speed and size of the eye image. means,

Means the specific heat at constant pressure of humid air,

means the specific heat of the award,

is a parameter representing the relationship between mass and size on the cloud,

means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of hail phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the ice phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the emergency,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the eye image,

is the diffusion coefficient of water vapor,

is the diameter of the cloud,

is the diameter of the ice phase,

is the diameter of the ice phase defined by HDC,

is the diameter of the flight,

is a parameter representing the relationship between mass and size on the cloud,

means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of hail phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the ice phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the flight,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the eye image,

Means the contingency binding efficiency,

Means the emergency breaking efficiency,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the hail phase and the cloud phase,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the hail phase and the ice phase,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between hail phase and flight,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the average speed of the ice phase and the mixing ratio,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the ice phase and the flight,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the flight and the ice phase,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the emergency and the snow phase,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the snow phase and the cloud phase,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the snow phase and the ice phase,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the snow phase and the emergency,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and density of the ice phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and magnitude of an emergency,

is the gravitational acceleration,

denotes the Long's conclusive kernel coefficient,

denotes the Long's conclusive kernel coefficient,

is the thermal conductivity of air,

Means the cloud condensation nucleus activation parameter,

means the latent heat of bonding,

is the latent heat of condensation,

denotes the intercept on the cloud,

Means the fragment of hail phase,

denotes the intercept of the emergency,

means the intercept of the eye,

is the number concentration on the cloud,

Means the number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei,

is the number concentration of the ice phase,

is the emergency number concentration,

denotes the initial value of cloud condensation nuclei,

is the mixing ratio,

is the mixing ratio in the cloud phase,

Means the threshold value of the mixing ratio in the cloud,

Means the mixing ratio of hail phase,

is the mixing ratio of the ice phase,

is the mixing ratio of ice cores,

is the emergency mixing ratio,

Means the mixing ratio of the eye phase,

is the saturation value of the ice phase,

Means the self-conversion threshold on the eye,

denotes the saturation value on the cloud,

is the gas constant of water vapor,

is the radius of the activated cloud condensation nucleus droplet,

Means the saturation ratio to ice,

is the saturation ratio to water vapor,

Means the maximum saturation value for activation of cloud condensation nuclei,

means temperature,

means the reference temperature,

Means the mass-weighted sedimentation rate of hail phase,

is the mass-weighted sedimentation rate of the ice phase,

is the emergency mass-weighted sedimentation rate,

Means the mass-weighted sedimentation rate of the snow phase,

Means the mass-weighted vertical average sedimentation velocity of hail phase,

is the mass-weighted vertical mean sedimentation velocity of flight,

Means the mass-weighted vertical average sedimentation velocity of the snow phase,

denotes the complete gamma function,

Means the microphysical process integration time,

Means the slope of the cloud size distribution,

Means the slope of the hail size distribution,

is the slope of the emergency size distribution,

Means the slope of the eye image size distribution,

Means a parameter expressing the shape of the number concentration distribution on the cloud,

Means a parameter expressing the shape of the number concentration distribution of hail phase,

Means a parameter expressing the form of non-emergency number concentration distribution,

Means a parameter expressing the shape of the number concentration distribution on the eye,

Means the dynamic viscosity,

is the circumference ratio,

is the density of air in the reference state,

is the density of air,

means the density of hail phase,

is the emergency density,

means the density of the eye image,

is the density of clouds.)
delete The method of claim 1, wherein the second microphysical process,
Between the cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight, snow phase, and cloud condensation nuclei, a gas phase prepared to predict the water concentration generated by physical processes appearing as consolidation, melting, condensation, self conversion, evaporation, activation, and sedimentation, prediction method.
The method of claim 1, wherein the performing of the weather prediction comprises:
Calculating surface precipitation by converting the mixture ratio of the ice phase, hail phase, rain and snow phase into a unit of precipitation, and calculating surface precipitation.
The method of claim 1, wherein the performing of the weather prediction comprises:
And calculating a temperature change of the atmosphere based on the phase change of the atmospheric water phase appearing in the first microphysical process and the second microphysical process.
A computer-readable recording medium on which a computer program is recorded for performing the weather prediction method according to any one of claims 1 and 3 to 5.
Mixing ratio of water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight phase and snow phase based on the formula derived through input of the characteristics of atmospheric water phase required for the first microphysical process and a plurality of parameters related to the efficiency of the microphysical process a mixing ratio calculation unit for predicting;
A number concentration calculation unit that predicts the number concentration of cloud phase, flight and cloud condensation nuclei based on the formula derived through input of a plurality of parameters related to the characteristics of the atmospheric water phase and the efficiency of the microphysical process required for the second microphysical process ; and
A weather prediction unit for performing weather prediction using the mixture ratio of the water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, emergency and snow phases and the number concentration of the cloud phase, emergency and cloud condensation nuclei;
The first microphysical process,
Between the vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight and snow phase, the mixing ratio generated by physical processes such as consolidation, melting, condensation, self conversion, deposition, sublimation, evaporation, ice formation, activation and sedimentation prepared to predict
The mixing ratio calculator,
It is possible to predict the mixing ratio of water vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight and snow phase for a plurality of groups, and to use parameter values related to atmospheric phase characteristics and microphysical process efficiency [ Calculated through Equation 1] to [Equation 8],
The plurality of groups
The first group represents the physical process of vapor phase, cloud phase, ice phase, hail phase, flight and snow phase, the second group represents melting, the third group represents condensation, the fourth group represents self-conversion, deposition, and sublimation. and a fifth group representing evaporation, a sixth group representing ice formation, a seventh group representing condensation and activation, and an eighth group representing sedimentation;
The mixing ratio calculator,
For the first group, the mixing ratio production rate (Pgaci) due to the ice-phase consolidation of the hail phase, the mixing ratio production rate (Pgacr) due to the emergency consolidation of the hail phase, the mixing ratio production rate (Pgacw) due to the cloud-phase consolidation of the hail phase, and the emergency consolidation of the ice phase Mixing rate due to emergency cloud formation (Piacr), mixing rate due to emergency cloud adhesion (Praci), mixing rate due to emergency snow adhesion (Pracs), mixing rate due to emergency cloud adhesion (Pracw), ice phase adhesion on snow Calculate the mixing ratio production rate (Psaci), the mixing ratio production rate (Psacr) due to emergency adhesion on the snow, and the mixing ratio production rate (Psacw) due to cloud adhesion on the snow,
For the second group, the mixing ratio production rate due to the enhanced recording of the hail phase (Pgeml), the mixing ratio generation rate due to the recording of the hail phase (Pgmlt), the mixing ratio generation rate due to the melting of the ice phase (Pimlt), and the mixing ratio due to the enhanced recording of the snow phase Calculate the production rate (Pseml) and the mixing ratio production rate (Psmlt) by recording on the eye,
For the third group, the mixing ratio formation rate (Pgfrz) by the freezing process from flying to hail, the mixing ratio formation rate (Pihmf) by the homogeneous freezing process, and the mixing ratio formation rate (Pihtf) by the non-homogeneous freezing process are calculated,
For the fourth group, the mixing ratio production rate by self conversion from snow phase to hail phase (Pgaut), the mixing ratio generation rate by self conversion from cloud phase to flight phase (Praut), and the mixing ratio by self conversion from ice phase to snow phase Calculate the production rate (Psaut),
For the fifth group, the mixing ratio formation rate by deposition and sublimation of hail phase (Pgdep), the mixing ratio formation rate by evaporation of melting hail phase (Pgevp), the mixing ratio formation rate by emergency evaporation and condensation (Prevp), in emergency due to evaporation Calculate the mixing ratio formation rate by conversion into a cloud (Prevprc), the mixing ratio formation rate by deposition and sublimation of the snow phase (Psdep), and the mixing ratio formation rate by evaporation of the melting snow phase (Psevp),
For the sixth group, a mixing ratio formation rate (Pidep) by deposition and sublimation of the ice phase and a mixing ratio formation rate (Pigen) by the nucleation process from the water vapor phase to the ice phase are calculated,
For the seventh group, a mixing ratio generation rate (Pcact) due to activation of cloud condensation nuclei and a mixing ratio generation rate (Pcond) due to cloud condensation and evaporation are calculated;
For the eighth group, a weather prediction device for calculating a mixing ratio due to sedimentation of rain, snow, and graupel.
[Equation 1]

[Equation 2]

[Equation 3]

[Equation 4]

[Equation 5]

[Equation 6]

[Equation 7]

[Equation 8]

(In Equations 1 to 8,

is a constant in the raindrop condensation equation,

denotes a thermodynamic term,

denotes a thermodynamic term,

Means the conversion efficiency from the ice phase to the snow phase,

Means the conversion efficiency from the snow phase to the hail phase,

is a parameter representing the relationship between speed and size on the cloud,

means a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and size of hail phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and size of the ice phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and magnitude of an emergency,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between speed and size of the eye image,

is a constant in the raindrop condensation equation,

denotes a thermodynamic term,

denotes a thermodynamic term,

means a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and size of hail phase,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and size of the ice phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and magnitude of an emergency,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between speed and size of the eye image,

Means the specific heat at constant pressure of humid air,

means the specific heat of the award,

is a parameter representing the relationship between mass and size on the cloud,

means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of hail phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the ice phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the emergency,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the eye image,

is the diffusion coefficient of water vapor,

is the diameter of the cloud,

is the diameter of the ice phase,

is the diameter of the ice phase defined by HDC,

is the diameter of the flight,

is a parameter representing the relationship between mass and size on the cloud,

means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of hail phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the ice phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the flight,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the mass and size of the eye image,

Means the contingency binding efficiency,

Means the emergency breaking efficiency,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the hail phase and the cloud phase,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the hail phase and the ice phase,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between hail phase and flight,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the average speed of the ice phase and the mixing ratio,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the ice phase and the flight,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the flight and the ice phase,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the emergency and the snow phase,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the snow phase and the cloud phase,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the snow phase and the ice phase,

Means the collision / binding efficiency between the snow phase and the emergency,

is a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and density of the ice phase,

Means a parameter representing the relationship between the speed and magnitude of an emergency,

is the gravitational acceleration,

denotes the Long's conclusive kernel coefficient,

denotes the Long's conclusive kernel coefficient,

is the thermal conductivity of air,

Means the cloud condensation nucleus activation parameter,

means the latent heat of bonding,

is the latent heat of condensation,

denotes the intercept on the cloud,

Means the fragment of hail phase,

denotes the intercept of the emergency,

means the intercept of the eye,

is the number concentration on the cloud,

Means the number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei,

is the number concentration of the ice phase,

is the emergency number concentration,

denotes the initial value of cloud condensation nuclei,

is the mixing ratio,

is the mixing ratio in the cloud phase,

Means the threshold value of the mixing ratio in the cloud,

Means the mixing ratio of hail phase,

is the mixing ratio of the ice phase,

is the mixing ratio of ice cores,

is the emergency mixing ratio,

Means the mixing ratio of the eye phase,

is the saturation value of the ice phase,

Means the self-conversion threshold on the eye,

denotes the saturation value on the cloud,

is the gas constant of water vapor,

is the radius of the activated cloud condensation nucleus droplet,

Means the saturation ratio to ice,

is the saturation ratio to water vapor,

Means the maximum saturation value for activation of cloud condensation nuclei,

means temperature,

means the reference temperature,

Means the mass-weighted sedimentation rate of hail phase,

is the mass-weighted sedimentation rate of the ice phase,

is the emergency mass-weighted sedimentation rate,

Means the mass-weighted sedimentation rate of the snow phase,

Means the mass-weighted vertical average sedimentation velocity of hail phase,

is the mass-weighted vertical mean sedimentation velocity of flight,

Means the mass-weighted vertical average sedimentation velocity of the snow phase,

denotes the complete gamma function,

Means the microphysical process integration time,

Means the slope of the cloud size distribution,

Means the slope of the hail size distribution,

is the slope of the emergency size distribution,

Means the slope of the eye image size distribution,

Means a parameter expressing the shape of the number concentration distribution on the cloud,

Means a parameter expressing the shape of the number concentration distribution of hail phase,

Means a parameter expressing the form of non-emergency number concentration distribution,

Means a parameter expressing the shape of the number concentration distribution on the eye,

Means the dynamic viscosity,

is the circumference ratio,

is the density of air in the reference state,

is the density of air,

means the density of hail phase,

is the emergency density,

means the density of the eye image,

is the density of clouds.)

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