KR20190135591A - Components demand forecasting system and method for thereof - Google Patents

Abstract

According to the present invention, a material inventory prediction system comprises: a claim result generation unit to generate claim result data of a material in a preset time unit based on claim details of the material; a consumption result generation unit to generate consumption result data of the material in the preset time unit based on consumption details of the material; a lead time calculation unit to calculate a lead time which is the time from a time of claiming the material to a time of receiving and securing the material; a demand prediction unit to predict a demand of the material by applying a statistical technique to the claim result and consumption result data generated by the claim result generation unit and the consumption result generation unit; a material list selection unit to use information predicted by the demand prediction unit to select a list for inventory prediction; a dissemination day designation unit to indicate a level for securing in advance to maintain as inventory in preparation for a demand expected in the future in a day unit; and an inventory prediction unit to predict the inventory of the material based on the demand of the material calculated by the demand prediction unit, the lead time calculated in the lead time calculation step, and dissemination days. Accordingly, the inventory of the material can be predicted.

Description

Material inventory prediction system and method using the same {COMPONENTS DEMAND FORECASTING SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR THEREOF}

The present invention is a material inventory prediction system and a method using the same to maintain a proper inventory of the material more specifically predicts the appropriate inventory amount to facilitate the storage and management of materials necessary for the maintenance of the equipment in preparation for the failure of the equipment System and method thereof.

In the event of a failure of the equipment, materials are stocked to maintain the equipment in each organization (maintenance unit) and each facility (warehouse). To do this, sufficient materials must be secured, but budgetary constraints and inventories are limited.

Some materials run out of stock and fail to deliver on time. Another problem arises for other items, such as excessive inventory of materials.

This problem is caused by the inaccuracy of demand forecasting for repair parts to be used for a certain period of time. Therefore, if the demand forecast is accurate, there should be no inventory remaining after the demand forecast period has passed. However, if the equipment failure occurred more than the previous year in a situation where the failure of the equipment occurred, the equipment would be inactive for a period of time (one year), and if it occurred less than the previous year, the repair parts would have excess assets. will be. Therefore, the list of spare parts to be secured in advance should be predicted to prevent equipment downtime and the quantity to be secured for each unit based on the predicted list. However, since the aggregate data predicting the demand for materials is the result of claiming existing materials, the reality of demand forecasting based on the billing performance predicts inventory based on distorted data such as excessive unused items and the possibility of demand for demand after requesting a specific item. There is a problem with overstock forecasts.

If the demand aggregate data of the material is distorted, the forecast of demand based on the aggregate data will be distorted, and the inventory forecast that forecasts the stock based on the forecast of the demand will be distorted. This is necessary.

The problem to be solved by the present invention is to predict the demand and inventory of the material on the basis of the data less distortion of demand by combining the actual consumption of the material and the billing performance billed from each unit.

Material inventory prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention is a billing performance generation unit for generating a billing performance data of the material in a predetermined period unit based on the billing history of the material, a predetermined period based on the consumption history of the material Consumption performance generation unit for generating consumption performance data of the material in units, time period calculation for calculating the period required from the time of claiming the material to the time of receiving and securing the material, the billing performance generation unit and the consumption The demand forecasting unit which predicts the demand of the material by applying a statistical technique to the billing performance and consumption performance data generated by the performance generating unit, and the demand forecasting value of the material calculated by the demand forecasting unit and the required time period calculated in the calculation period And an inventory predicting unit predicting an inventory amount of the material based on the number of days of supply.

According to another embodiment of the present invention, the calculation period of the material stock prediction system according to the contract type of the material to be predicted claims the period or material from January 1 of the fiscal year to the time when the material is received and secured. It is characterized by selecting and calculating one of the points obtained by receiving the material from the point in time.

The demand forecasting unit of the material inventory prediction system according to another embodiment of the present invention checks whether the demand aggregated data is in the past, and compares the required period calculated by the required period calculation unit with a predetermined period, wherein the required period According to the result of comparing with the predetermined period, characterized in that the billing performance and consumption performance data of the predetermined period unit is combined and the combined billing performance and consumption performance by applying a statistical technique to predict the demand of the material.

If the demand forecasting unit of the material inventory prediction system according to another embodiment of the present invention has past billing performance and consumption performance, the past billing performance data corresponding to the number of days in the fiscal year of the period to be forecasted and the previous consumption data It characterized in that the combination.

The demand forecasting unit of the material inventory prediction system according to another embodiment of the present invention has past usage history, but if there is no usage history for a certain period of time, past claims are made according to the number of days and the period of the fiscal year of the period for which the forecast is to be performed It is characterized by combining the performance data and the previous consumption performance data.

The inventory selection unit of the material inventory prediction method according to another embodiment of the present invention does not predict the material for all the materials to be predicted, but the cumulative demand rate is within a certain range based on the required items and the aggregated demand data (for example, It is characterized in that it further includes a material list selection unit that considers the environmental factors, characteristics of each item, and the like to include the items included in the cumulative demand of 85%).

The supply days designation part of the material inventory prediction method according to another embodiment of the present invention may specify the supply days for each incident type in units of days, which means a quantity corresponding to several days as a preliminary operation for calculating the quantity to be secured and operated as inventory. Characterized in that it further comprises a spread day designation.

Material inventory prediction system according to another embodiment of the present invention is characterized in that it further comprises a stock prediction correction unit that can modify the inventory forecast amount predicted by the stock prediction unit.

Material inventory prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention is a billing performance generation step of generating a billing performance data of the material in a predetermined period unit based on the billing history of the material, a predetermined period based on the consumption history of the material A consumption history generation step of generating consumption performance data of the material in units, a time period calculation step of calculating a time period that is a period from when the material is claimed to when the material is received and secured, the billing performance generation unit and the consumption The demand calculated in the step of calculating the demand forecast value and the required duration of the demand forecasting step of predicting the demand of the material by applying a statistical technique to the billing performance and consumption performance data generated by the performance generating unit and the demand forecasting step To include an inventory forecasting step that estimates the stock of a material based on periods and days of supply. It features.

According to another embodiment of the present invention, the step of calculating the required time period of the material stock prediction method claims a period or material from January 1 of the fiscal year to the time when the required time is obtained according to the contract type of the material to be predicted. It is characterized by selecting and calculating one of the points of time when the material is received and secured from a point in time.

In the demand forecasting step of the material inventory prediction method according to another embodiment of the present invention, the step of confirming whether the aggregated data is historically performed and comparing the required periods calculated in the required periods calculation step with a preset period, Combining the billing performance and consumption performance data of a predetermined period unit according to a result of comparing the required period with the preset period, and applying the statistical technique to the combined billing performance and consumption performance It characterized in that it comprises a step of predicting.

In the material inventory prediction method according to another embodiment of the present invention, in the step of combining the billing performance and the consumption performance, the billing performance or the consumption performance data may be combined from the time point at which the prediction is to be performed. In this case, the past billing performance data and the previous consumption data are combined with the fiscal day days of the period in which the forecast is to be performed.

In the material inventory prediction method according to another embodiment of the present invention, the step of combining the billing performance and the consumption performance combines several billing performance or consumption performance data from the time point at which the prediction is to be performed, but there are past usage records, but recent schedules If there is no historical performance during the period, the historical billing performance data for the period during which the forecast is to be performed and the previous consumption performance data for the period prior to the preset period from the point at which the forecast is to be performed are combined. It is characterized by.

In the inventory selection step of the material inventory prediction method according to another embodiment of the present invention, the cumulative demand rate is not within a certain range (for example, based on essential items and aggregated demand data) instead of predicting the material for all the materials to be predicted. It includes the step of selecting a list of materials to consider the environmental factors, the characteristics of each item, etc. to organize the items included, cumulative demand within 85%).

The supply days designation step of the material inventory prediction method according to another embodiment of the present invention is a preliminary operation for calculating the quantity to be secured and operated as the inventory, which means that the number of days of supply per unit type is specified in units of days. Characterized in that it further comprises the step of designating the number of dissemination days.

Material inventory prediction method according to another embodiment of the present invention is characterized in that it further comprises a stock forecast correction step that can modify the inventory forecast amount predicted in the inventory prediction step.

The present invention can provide the effect of contributing to maintaining the utilization rate of the equipment by improving the accuracy of demand prediction and inventory forecasting by combining demand consumption and billing performance of materials.

1 is a block diagram of a material inventory prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention.
2 is a flow chart of a material inventory prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Figure 3 is a flow chart of the required period calculation step of the material inventory prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Figure 4 is a flow chart of the demand forecasting step of the material inventory prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Hereinafter, the present invention will be described with reference to the accompanying drawings. As the invention allows for various changes and numerous embodiments, particular embodiments will be illustrated in the drawings and described in detail. However, this is not intended to limit the present invention to specific embodiments, it should be understood to include all modifications and / or equivalents and substitutes included in the spirit and scope of the present invention. In the description of the drawings, similar reference numerals are used for similar elements. The expression "comprise" or "comprise" and the like that can be used in the present invention indicates the existence of the corresponding function, operation, or component invented, and does not limit the additional one or more functions, operations or components, and the like. . In addition, in the present invention, the terms "comprise" or "have" are intended to indicate that there is a feature, number, step, operation, component, part, or combination thereof described in the specification, and one or more. It is to be understood that it does not exclude in advance the possibility of the presence or addition of other features or numbers, steps, operations, components, components or combinations thereof. Various embodiments of the present invention may include any and all combinations of words listed together, such as "or". For example, "A or B" may include A, may include B, or may include both A and B. Expressions such as "first," "second," "first," or "second," etc. in the present invention may modify various elements of the present invention, but do not limit the corresponding elements. For example, the above expressions do not limit the order and / or importance of the corresponding elements. The expressions may be used to distinguish one component from another. For example, both a first user device and a second user device are user devices and represent different user devices. For example, without departing from the scope of the present invention, the first component may be referred to as the second component, and similarly, the second component may also be referred to as the first component. When a component is said to be "connected" or "connected" to another component, it may be directly connected to or connected to that other component, but it may be understood that another component may be present in the middle. Should be. On the other hand, when a component is referred to as being "directly connected" or "directly connected" to another component, it should be understood that there is no other component in between. Various embodiments of the present invention are used to describe specific embodiments only, and are not intended to limit the various embodiments of the present invention. Singular expressions may include plural expressions unless the context clearly indicates otherwise. Unless defined otherwise, all terms used herein, including technical or scientific terms, have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art. Terms such as those defined in the commonly used dictionaries should be construed as having meanings consistent with the meanings in the context of the related art, and various embodiments of the invention, unless expressly defined, are ideal or overly formal It is not interpreted in the sense.

1 is a block diagram of a material inventory prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention. Material inventory prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention may include a control unit, a database unit and a communication unit.

The database unit of the material inventory prediction system may record information about the material to be predicted. In detail, the database unit may record information on billing history, consumption history, procurement type, required period, supply days, and unit price of each material.

In general, when equipment breaks down, the unit operating the equipment consumes the material and repairs the equipment. Each unit may repair the equipment by consuming the material if it has the necessary materials for maintenance. Otherwise, the unit may prepare and claim a maintenance instruction requesting the material. In addition, materials held by each unit may age and require replacement. In such cases, each unit may bill the superior unit for the materials needed for replacement.

The billing details are the details of each unit's request for materials to a senior unit to repair or replace equipment.

The consumption of materials used by each unit for repair or replacement of materials is consumed.

The billing history and consumption history may be recorded in the database unit for each material.

The control unit of the material inventory prediction system may receive data from the database unit to predict the demand and inventory of the material. Referring to FIG. 1, the controller may include a billing performance generation unit, a consumption performance generation unit, a time period calculation unit, a demand forecasting unit, a stock prediction unit, and a stock prediction correction unit.

The billing performance generation unit may classify the billing details of the predicted material recorded in the database unit in a predetermined period. In addition, the billing history generation unit may perform a billing history generation step of generating billing history data of the predicted material based on the classified billing details. According to an exemplary embodiment of the present invention, the billing performance generation unit may aggregate billing performance on a monthly or annual basis based on the billing history recorded in the database.

The consumption history generation unit may classify the consumption history of the predicted material recorded in the database unit in a predetermined period. In addition, the consumption history generation unit may perform a consumption history generation step of generating consumption history data of the material to be predicted based on the classified consumption history. According to an embodiment of the present invention, the consumption history generation unit may calculate the consumption history by material or monthly consumption based on the consumption history information recorded in the database unit.

The required period calculation unit may perform a required period calculation step of calculating a required period, which is a period from the time of claiming the predicted material to the time of receiving and securing the material.

Figure 3 is a flow chart of the required period calculation step of the material inventory prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention. The required time calculation unit may calculate the required time period according to the procurement type of the material to be predicted.

As the procurement form of the above materials, the central procurement method procured by the National Defense Agency, the unit procurement method procured by each unit, the commercial confirmation method through the general competitive contract of foreign procurement, the designated order method specifying the quantity and price, and the scheduled delivery date For example, there may be a limit contract method, which is often billed for irregular materials, a general purchase method that is often billed by collectively contracting annual requirements for each item, and a Procurement Agency contract method procured by the Public Procurement Service.

According to an embodiment of the present invention, the required period calculating unit may retrieve information regarding a procurement type of the predicted material from the database unit. The calculation period calculation period may set the date of calculation of the required period differently depending on the type of procurement of the material.

If the procurement type of the forecasted material is one of the following methods: central procurement, incidental procurement, commercial confirmation, or designated order, the lead period calculation may set the expected date of the required period of the forecasted material to be January 1 of the fiscal year. The required calculation period may calculate the period from the date of the calculation to the date the material is delivered as the required period.

If the procurement type of the predicted material is one of the following methods: limit contract, general purchase, and procurement agency contract, the calculation period may set the date of calculation of the required period of the predicted material as the billing date of the predicted material. The required calculation period may calculate the period from the date of the calculation to the date the material is delivered as the required period.

The controller may record the required duration calculated in the required duration calculation step in the database unit.

The demand forecaster may perform a demand forecasting step of predicting the demand of the material to be predicted by applying a statistical technique to the billing performance data generated by the billing performance generator.

The demand prediction unit may perform a demand prediction step of predicting the demand of the material to be predicted by applying a statistical technique to the consumption performance data generated by the consumption performance generation unit.

The demand prediction unit combines the billing performance generated by the billing performance generating unit and the consumption history generating unit with the consumption performance data, and then performs a demand forecasting step of predicting the demand of the material to be predicted by applying a statistical technique to the combined data. can do.

Figure 4 is a flow chart of the demand forecasting step of the material inventory prediction method according to an embodiment of the present invention. The demand forecasting unit on the material inventory forecasting system according to an embodiment of the present invention with reference to FIG. 4 includes the steps of combining billing performance and consumption performance data according to the time period calculated by the calculation period. Steps to apply statistical techniques to consumption performance can be performed. Since the actual demand is not reflected in the consumption performance during the required period of the material to be predicted, the billing performance and the consumption performance can be combined based on the required period.

According to an embodiment of the present invention, the optimal demand can be predicted by combining the billing performance and the consumption performance. For example, when the demand is predicted based on the data collected for the five years, the demand may be predicted by combining the consumption performance of the last one year and the four years.

According to an embodiment of the present invention, the demand forecasting unit is a point in time when the demand forecasting unit attempts to perform the forecast if the required period of the material to be used in the past for a certain period does not exceed the number of days in the fiscal year (365 a year). The billing performance of the material from the last two years and the consumption history of the previous three years can be combined.

If the forecast period is less than 365 days (one year), the consumption performance of the last two years does not reflect the recent occurrence, so in this case, the billing performance of the last two years, including the control period, becomes more valid information.

According to an embodiment of the present invention, the demand forecasting unit attempts to perform a forecast when the required period of the target material for which the past use record is used, but the use record for the past period has been larger than the fiscal year days and less than the next fiscal year days. The billing performance of the last three years of the material from the point in time can be combined with the consumption performance of the previous two years.

If the required period of the predicted material is 1 year or more and 2 years or less, since the consumption performance of the last three years does not reflect the recent occurrence, the billing performance of the last three years including the control period becomes more effective information.

According to an embodiment of the present invention, the demand forecasting unit performs prediction when the required period of the predicted material having a past use history but no use history for the latest period exceeds the number of days of the next fiscal year (two years 730). It is possible to combine the billing performance of the last four years of the material from the point in time to the consumption history of the previous one year.

If the forecasted material's lead-time exceeds 730 days (two years), the last four years' consumption does not reflect the recent occurrence, so in this case, the billing performance of the last four years, including the control period, is more effective. do.

The method of combining the billing performance and the consumption performance of the predicted material is not limited to the above embodiment, and may be combined in various ways according to the characteristics of each item. In addition, if there is no past charges and consumption, only demand can be used to predict demand.

The demand prediction unit may perform a step of predicting the demand of the future target material using the combination of the billing performance and the consumption performance. The demand forecaster may analyze the data combining the consumption performance and the billing performance in time series using a statistical technique.

The demand forecasting step process according to an embodiment of the present invention is as follows.

In order to perform a demand forecast of the material, the demand forecasting unit may utilize data including a combination of existing consumption performance and recent billing performance. The demand forecaster may calculate a trend line by applying statistical techniques. The demand prediction unit may predict the demand of the material to be predicted by using the trend line.

The demand forecaster may use statistical techniques such as arithmetic mean, moving average, least squares, and ARIMA when performing the demand forecasting step. It is also possible to apply statistical techniques that are easy for the skilled person.

When the demand forecaster performs the demand forecasting step, the demand forecaster may automatically select and provide a method of predicting demand based on the predicted demand forecasting result. Specifically, it is possible to provide an optimal statistical technique for demand forecasting by obtaining trend lines, analyzing slope values of trend lines, and examining demand lines and deviations through demand lines connecting demand points.

For example, the demand forecaster may apply an arithmetic mean method when the slope of the trend line is within + −1, and may apply a moving average method when the predicted value is -value as a result of applying the least square method. The demand forecasting unit may apply a least square method when the slope of the trend line exceeds + −1 and the deviation is within + −0.2, and may apply a moving average method. The demand forecaster can provide the optimal demand forecasting results by analyzing statistics in the same way.

It will be apparent that the criteria and method of selecting the statistical technique are not limited to the above examples.

The list of materials selected by the ASL / PL (Authorized Stockage List Authorized Storage Items / Prescribed Load Regulation Carrying Volume) is stored on maintenance and facility units. As a list of supplies approved to maintain, store, and upgrade to meet the requirements, the list may be selected by the organization and facility.

The ASL / PL list selection of the material list selector is a task for selecting items to be secured in stock, and has been in demand for a certain period of time based on the data gathered and demanded by the claim record generation unit and the consumption record generation unit. ASL / PL list for each unit can be selected by selecting items, and other items that are not selected can be referred to as Non Authorized Storge List.

The material list selection unit may select the unit based on the demand aggregated details of the predicted materials recorded in the database unit for a predetermined period. In addition, the material list selection unit may perform a material list selection step of generating a material list of the material to be predicted based on the aggregated demand aggregate details. According to an embodiment of the present invention, the material list generation unit may select a material list on a yearly basis based on the demand aggregated data recorded in the database unit.

The number of days of supply designation indicates the level of day-by-day unit for each unit type to secure in advance in preparation for anticipated demand.

The day of supply designation may be changed and applied in units of a certain period according to the types of units recorded in the database. In addition, the supply day designation unit may include a supply day designation step of selecting a supply day of the predicted material based on the specified supply day.

 According to an embodiment of the present invention, the spreading day designation unit may change the spreading day recorded in the database unit based on a policy decision.

The number of supply days is a safety level (SL) for continuous operation without inventory depletion even in case of delay in transportation, an operation level (OL) that can continue to operate without additional receipt for a certain period of time under normal conditions, Order and Shipping Time (OST), which is the time interval elapsed from the date the claim is issued until distribution is possible, the quantity held or ordered to continue current operations and to meet future anticipated demand. It can be divided into Requisitioning Objective (RO), etc. The replenishment days may be set differently from each other depending on the type of facility for securing the material. The number of days of dissemination can be specified as 30 operating level days of a large distribution system (top-level facility warehouse), and 0 days of safety level depending on the type of units in a small distribution system (organization and facility warehouse except large distribution system). The number of days of operation can be specified as 10 to 30, and the ordering and transport days can be specified as 10 to 15.

The SL, OL, and OST are calculated for each item on the basis of the specified supply days, and RO is SL, OL. Predict the inventory that is calculated as the sum of the OSTs.

The manner of designating the day of dissemination is not limited to the above embodiment and may be specified in various ways according to the type of each unit.

The replenishment days may be recorded in the database for each material.

The inventory forecasting unit predicts the stock quantity of the material based on the demand of the material calculated by the demand forecasting unit and the required supply period of the predicted material specified by the required period of the target material and the supplying date designation calculated in the required period calculating step. Inventory forecasting steps can be performed.

The inventory forecasting step may predict the inventory of the material based on the demand of the material calculated in the demand forecasting step and the supply days specified in the designation of the required period and the supplying date calculated in the required period calculating step.

The control unit may receive information such as a demand prediction value, a required period, and supply days from a database unit, and the inventory prediction unit may perform inventory prediction of materials using the received information.

) 재고량을 예측할 수 있다. According to an embodiment of the present invention, the inventory prediction unit uses the following equation to calculate the billing target of the material to be predicted corresponding to the grand system system (top-level facility warehouse) (

) Inventory can be estimated.

: 부대,

: 자재,

:

: 부대

자재에 대한 연간수요량(수요예측), (

: army unit,

: material,

:

: army unit

Annual demand for materials (demand forecast),

: 안전수준 일수,

: 소요 기간 일수)

: Days of safety level,

: Days required)

The above formula is calculated based on the safety level days of the supply days designation part and the required period calculation period for the annual demand value, which is a forecast value predicted by the demand forecasting part, for the list selected by the material list selecting part. It is a formula for estimating the total inventory of materials needed for a certain period in consideration of the number of days.

) 재고량을 예측할 수 있다. According to an embodiment of the present invention, the inventory prediction unit uses the following formula to determine the safety level of the predicted material corresponding to the subdivision system (organization and facility warehouse except the large distribution system) (

) Inventory can be estimated.

: 부대,

: 자재,

:

부대

자재에 대한 연간수요량(수요예측), (

: army unit,

: material,

:

army unit

Annual demand (demand forecast) for the material,

:

부대 안전수준 일수)

:

Unit safety level days)

The above formula is the supply day designation part in the annual demand value value, which is a forecast value predicted by the demand forecasting part for each unit of the small distribution system (organization and facility warehouse) for a certain period for the list selected by the material list selecting part. Is a formula for estimating the inventory level considering the safety level days value.

) 재고량을 예측할 수 있다. According to an embodiment of the present invention, the inventory prediction unit uses the following formula to operate the predicted materials corresponding to the subdivision system (organization and facility warehouse except the large distribution system) (

) Inventory can be estimated.

: 부대,

: 자재,

:

부대

자재에 대한 연간수요량(수요예측), (

: army unit,

: material,

:

army unit

Annual demand for materials (demand forecast),

:

부대 운영수준 일수)

:

Unit operating level days)

The above formula is the supply day designation part in the annual demand value value, which is a forecast value predicted by the demand forecasting part for each unit of the small distribution system (organization and facility warehouse) for a certain period for the list selected by the material list selecting part. The formula for estimating the inventory level by considering the operating level days value of.

) 재고량을 예측할 수 있다.According to an embodiment of the present invention, the stock predicting unit orders and transports time of the predicted material corresponding to the subdivision system (organization and facility warehouse except the large distribution system) using the following formula (

) Inventory can be estimated.

: 부대,

: 자재,

:

부대

자재에 대한 연간수요량(수요예측), (

: army unit,

: material,

:

army unit

Annual demand for materials (demand forecast),

:

부대 발주 및 수송시간 일수)

:

Unit ordering and transport time days)

The above formula is the supply day designation part in the annual demand value value, which is a forecast value predicted by the demand forecasting part for each unit of the small distribution system (organization and facility warehouse) for a certain period for the list selected by the material list selecting part. Is a formula for estimating inventory considering the ordering and transit time days.

) 재고량을 예측할 수 있다. According to an embodiment of the present invention, the inventory prediction unit uses the following formula to calculate the billing target of the target material corresponding to the subdivision system (organization and facility warehouse except the large distribution system)

) Inventory can be estimated.

The above formula is the sum of the estimated safety level, operation level, ordering and transport time quantity for each item of each sub-distribution system (organization and facility warehouse) for a certain period for the list selected by the material list selector. This is the final target inventory forecast quantity.

Inventory forecasting unit can retrieve the information on the organization and facility days to store the inventory of the material from the database unit, it can be used to calculate the inventory for each organization and facility.

The controller may store the inventory forecast amount in a database unit.

The inventory prediction correction unit may perform an inventory prediction correction step of correcting the inventory prediction amount calculated by the inventory prediction unit.

The inventory forecast correcting unit may add or modify the inventory forecast amount predicted in the inventory forecasting step. In the inventory prediction correction step, the inventory prediction correction unit may modify information such as safety level, operation level, ordering and transportation time, and billing target.

The inventory forecast correction unit may modify the inventory forecast amount of the forecasted material by adding the facility when additional facilities to store the forecasted material are added. The inventory forecast correction unit may modify the inventory of the forecast material by deleting the facility when the facility to store the forecast material is closed. In addition, if it is necessary to switch the management of the material to be predicted, the inventory forecast correction unit may modify the inventory forecast for each facility.

When the inventory prediction correction unit receives the correction, the inventory prediction step may be performed accordingly to calculate the revised inventory forecast amount.

Material inventory prediction method and system according to the present invention can be implemented in the form of program instructions that can be executed through a variety of devices can be recorded on the device readable medium. The device readable medium may include program commands, data files, data structures, and the like, alone or in combination. Program instructions recorded on the media may be those specially designed and constructed for the present invention, or they may be of the kind well-known and available to those having skill in the software arts. Examples of device-readable recording media include magnetic media such as hard disks, floppy disks, and magnetic tape, optical media such as CD-ROMs, DVDs, and magnetic disks such as floppy disks. Magneto-optical media, and hardware devices specifically configured to store and execute program instructions, such as ROM, RAM, flash memory, and the like. Examples of program instructions include not only machine code generated by a compiler, but also high-level language code that can be executed by a computer using an interpreter or the like. The hardware device described above may be configured to operate as one or more software modules to perform the operations of the present invention, and vice versa.

100-Material Stock Prediction System
110-control unit
111-Billing Performance Generator
112-Consumption Performance Generator
113-Lead Time
114-demand forecast
115-Inventory Prediction
116-Material List Selection
117-Supply Days Assignment
118-Inventory prediction correction
120-Database
130-Communications Department
211-Generate billing performance step
212-Stage consumption generation
213-Estimated lead time step
214-Demand forecasting stage
215-Inventory forecast step
216-Material List Selection Step
217-Stages of Supply Days
218-Modify inventory forecast step

Claims (11)

A billing performance generation unit for generating billing performance data of materials on a predetermined period basis based on billing details of materials;
A consumption history generation unit configured to generate consumption history data of the material on a predetermined period basis based on the consumption history of the material;
A calculation period for calculating a time period from the time of claiming the material to the time of receiving and securing the material;
A demand prediction unit for combining the billing performance and consumption performance data of a predetermined period unit according to the required period and predicting the demand of materials by applying a statistical technique to the combined billing performance and consumption performance; And
And a stock forecasting unit predicting a stock amount of the material based on the demand of the material calculated by the demand forecasting unit and the required period and supply days calculated by the required period calculating unit. The method of claim 1,
According to the contract type of the material to be predicted, the required period calculation period shall determine whether the required period is from January 1, fiscal year until the receipt of the material, or when the material is received from the point of claiming the material. Material inventory prediction system, characterized in that the selection and calculation The method of claim 1,
Material inventory prediction system further comprises; a material inventory selection for selecting a inventory prediction list based on the demand aggregate of the material The method of claim 1,
A supply day designation unit instructed on a daily basis so as to secure in advance for each organization and facility in preparation for future expected demand of the material; Material inventory prediction system further comprises a The method of claim 1,
Material inventory prediction system further comprises a stock forecast correction unit for modifying the inventory forecast amount predicted by the stock prediction unit A billing performance generation step of generating billing performance data of the material on a predetermined period basis based on the billing history of the material;
A consumption history generation step of generating consumption history data of the material on a predetermined period basis based on the consumption history of the material;
Calculating a time period for calculating a time period from the time of claiming the material to the time of receiving and securing the material;
A demand prediction step of combining billing performance and consumption performance data of a predetermined period based on the required period, and predicting demand of materials by applying a statistical technique to the combined billing performance and consumption performance; And
And a stock forecasting step of predicting a stock amount of the material based on the demand of the material calculated in the demand forecasting step and the required period and the supply days calculated in the required period calculating step. The method of claim 6,
The calculation of the required time period may include one of the time periods from the first January of the fiscal year to the time of receipt of the material or the time of receipt of the material from the time of claiming the material according to the contract type of the material to be predicted. Material inventory prediction method, characterized in that the calculation by selecting The method of claim 6,
Material inventory selection method for selecting a inventory forecast list based on the demand aggregate of the material; material stock prediction method further comprising The method of claim 6,
A supply day designation step instructed on a daily basis so as to secure in advance for each organization and facility in preparation for future expected demand of the material; Material inventory prediction method further comprises a The method of claim 6,
The stock forecasting method further comprises a stock forecast correcting step of modifying the stock forecast amount predicted in the stock forecasting step. A recording medium readable by a device, characterized in that a program for executing the method of any one of claims 6 to 10 is recorded.

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