KR20160112484A - Wind hazard risk assessment system and method for responding to climate change - Google Patents

Wind hazard risk assessment system and method for responding to climate change Download PDF

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KR20160112484A
KR20160112484A KR1020150038281A KR20150038281A KR20160112484A KR 20160112484 A KR20160112484 A KR 20160112484A KR 1020150038281 A KR1020150038281 A KR 1020150038281A KR 20150038281 A KR20150038281 A KR 20150038281A KR 20160112484 A KR20160112484 A KR 20160112484A
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wind
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김진호
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(주)큐버솔루션
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    • YGENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y02TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02ATECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02A90/00Technologies having an indirect contribution to adaptation to climate change
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Abstract

The present invention relates to a system and a method for analyzing a city wind hazard risk to respond to a climate change. The system and the method for analyzing a city wind hazard risk to respond to a climate change is invented for necessity of proper preparation of a national level and management technique as a loss of a life and a loss of a property occur due to an increased wind-related disaster caused by recent climate and environment change. The present invention relates to the IT-based system for analyzing a city wind hazard risk to respond to a climate change and, specifically, to a system for assisting a decision maker so that the decision maker rapidly responds, by analyzing a wind hazard in a city region by considering the climate change and displaying an analyzed hazard result on a WEB-GIS-based system. To achieve the purpose of the present invention, the system for analyzing a city wind hazard risk to respond to a climate change includes: a) a strong wind hazard factor analyzing module of simulating a wind speed due to typhoon using a moving path and a central air pressure change of the typhoon and statistically analyzing future typhoon by considering the climate change; b) a weakness analyzing module of analyzing weakness of each facility using weakness DB of the facility; c) a wind hazard risk analyzing module calculating a damage probability by each grid and each administrative district using a strong wind hazard factor and strong wind fragility; and d) a wind hazard risk index analyzing module expressing a wind hazard risk index on a unit administrative district by analyzing damage probability information by each region and exposure rate information for preparing for and restoring damage.

Description

기후 변화 대응을 위한 도시 풍해 위험도 평가 시스템 및 방법{Wind hazard risk assessment system and method for responding to climate change}Technical Field [0001] The present invention relates to a system and method for evaluating the urban wind risk,

본 발명은 기후변화 대응을 위한 도시 풍해 위험도 평가 시스템 및 방법에 대한 것으로, 보다 자세하게는 기후변화를 고려하여 도시지역의 풍해 위험도를 평가하고 평가된 위험도 결과를 WEB-GIS기반의 시스템에서 표출하여 의사결정자에게 신속한 대응을 할 수 있도록 보조해주는 시스템과 그 절차에 대한 것이다.The present invention relates to a system and method for evaluating urban wind risk for the purpose of coping with climate change, more specifically, evaluating the weather risk of urban areas in consideration of climate change and displaying the evaluated risk results in WEB-GIS based system, And the system and procedure for assisting the decision maker in responding promptly.

최근 기후 및 환경변화로 인하여 바람관련 재해는 발생빈도와 강도가 날로 증가하고 있다. 이로 인하여 시민들의 인명손실과 개인사유시설을 포함한 막대한 재산상의 손실이 발생하고 있어서 국가차원의 적절한 준비와 대응 관리 기술이 매우 필요하다. 또한 우리나라의 경우, 자연재해 중 태풍 및 돌풍에 의한 도시지역의 피해가 매우 크지만 현재 이들 시설물에 대한 피해를 정량적으로 예측할 수 있는 기술이 부재한 실정이다. 이러한 상황에서 연구자들은 통계기반의 빈도분석을 수행하거나 지형을 고려한 시뮬레이션을 수행하는 방법 등으로 강풍에 대한 위험평가를 수행하였다. 그러나 넓은 지형에 대한 시뮬레이션을 할 수가 없으며 통계 분석 또한 관측지점에만 적용이 가능하여 본 발명에서는 통계기반 자료를 기초로 지형정보를 분석하여 빈도 분석 결과를 넓은 지역에 적용하는 방법론을 응용한 시스템을 고안 하였다.Due to recent climate and environmental changes, wind-related disasters are increasing in frequency and severity. As a result of this, there are huge loss of property including civilian loss of life and private facilities, so proper preparation and response management skills at national level are very necessary. In Korea, damage to urban areas due to typhoons and gusts during natural disasters is very large, but currently there is no technology to predict quantitatively the damage to these facilities. In this situation, the researchers conducted a risk assessment for strong winds by performing statistical based frequency analysis or performing a simulation based on topography. However, it is impossible to simulate a wide terrain and statistical analysis can be applied only to the observation point. In the present invention, a system applying a methodology of applying frequency analysis results to a wide area by analyzing topographical information based on statistical data is devised Respectively.

따라서, 본 발명은 상기한 종래 기술에 있어서의 문제점을 감안하여 된 것으로, 본 발명의 가장 큰 목적은 기후변화를 고려한 강풍고려시 효과적인 대응을 할 수 있도록 태풍 및 미래 강풍에 대한 위험을 예측하는 과정을 제공하여 다양한 의사결정을 지원하기 위함이다.SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION The present invention has been made in view of the above problems occurring in the prior art, and it is an object of the present invention to provide a method for predicting a risk for typhoons and future strong winds, To support various decisions.

본 발명의 다른 목적은 지자체별로 수행되는 풍수해저감종합계획 수립시 본 발명을 활용하여 풍해에 대한 위험지역을 평가하고 예측할 수 있도록 하는 것이다.Another object of the present invention is to make it possible to evaluate and predict the dangerous area for the open waters by using the present invention when establishing a comprehensive plan for wind and water reduction by each municipality.

본 발명은 상기한 명확한 목적 이외에 명세서의 전반적인 기술로 강풍 피해와 관련된 통상인에 의해 용이하게 사용될 수 있는 점을 목적으로 할수 있다.The present invention can be used as an overall technique of the present invention in addition to the above-mentioned clear purpose, and can be easily used by a trader related to a severe wind damage.

상기 목적을 달성하기 위한 본 발명의 기후변화 대응을 위한 도시풍해위험도 평가 시스템은;In order to accomplish the above object, the present invention provides a system for assessing urban wind risk,

a) 태풍의 이동경로와 중심기압변화를 이용하여 태풍으로 인한 풍속을 시뮬레이션하고 기후변화를 고려하여 미래태풍을 통계적으로 분석하는 강풍위험요인평가 모듈;a) a module for evaluating storm risk factors, which simulates the wind speed caused by a typhoon using the movement path of the typhoon and the change in the central atmospheric pressure and statistically analyzes the future typhoon considering the climate change;

b) 시설물의 취약성 DB를 활용하여 각 시설물의 취약성을 평가하는 취약성 평가모듈;b) a vulnerability assessment module that evaluates the vulnerability of each facility using the vulnerability DB of the facility;

c) 강풍위험요인과 강풍취약도를 활용하여 격자별, 행정구역별 피해확율을 산출하는 풍해 위험도 평가모듈;c) a module for assessing the degree of wind risk by calculating the probability of damages by grid and administrative area using the strong wind risk factor and the strong wind vulnerability factor;

d) 지역별 피해확율 정보와 피해에 대비하고 복구할 수 있는 정도인 노출도정보를 분석해서 단위 행정구역에 대한 풍해위험도 지표를 표출하는 풍해위험도지표평가모듈을 그 특징 징으로 한다.d) It is a characteristic feature of the module for evaluating the weather risk index which expresses the weather intensity risk index for the administrative district by analyzing the information on the damage probability by region and the degree of exposure that is enough to recover and prepare for damage.

상기와 같이 구성되는 본 발명의 기후 변화 대응을 위한 도시 풍해 위험도 평가 시스템은 기후변화 RCP 8.5, RCP 4.0을 기준으로 미래 태풍에 대한 데이터베이스를 구축하였으며, 아파트 및 산업용시설물에 대한 취약도를 데이터 베이스화 하였으며, 여수시 및 강릉에 대한 아파트 및 산업용시설물에 대한 전수 조사를 수행하였다. 개발된 모듈들에 대한 검증을 수행하여 여수시 및 강릉시에 대한 시설물별 위험도 평가를 수행하였다. 검증을 통하여 강풍 위험평가 모형의 적합성 및 가능성을 제시하였으며 강풍에 대한 적절한 위험평가가 수행됨을 확인하였다. 또한 전국적인 데이터베이스를 구축한다면 전국에 대한 원활한 평가를 수행할 수 있음을 확인하였다.The urban wind risk assessment system for the climate change according to the present invention constructed as described above has constructed a database for future typhoons based on the climate change RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.0 and has database for vulnerabilities of apartments and industrial facilities , Yeosu City, and Gangneung. The validity of the developed modules was verified to assess the risk for each facility in Yeosu and Gangneung. The validity of the model is verified through the verification and it is confirmed that the appropriate risk assessment for the strong wind is performed. In addition, we confirmed that the nation - wide evaluation can be performed by establishing a national database.

도 1은 본 발명의 모듈에 대한 블럭도 이다.
도 2는 본 발명에 대한 시스템 설계 구성도 이다.
도 3은 고안된 시스템의 시설물 정보 표출 결과이다.
도 4는 고안된 시스템의 지역 풍속 분포 표출 결과이다.
도 5는 고안된 시스템의 지역별 풍속 등급 표출 결과 이다.
도 6은 고안된 시스템의 풍해위험도 표출 결과 이다.
1 is a block diagram of a module of the present invention.
2 is a system configuration diagram of the present invention.
Fig. 3 shows the result of facility information display of the designed system.
Figure 4 shows the local wind velocity distribution of the designed system.
Fig. 5 is a graph showing the results of the wind speed classification of the designed system.
Fig. 6 shows the result of expressing the wind risk of the designed system.

이하, 본 발명의 바람직한 실시예와 첨부도면을 참조하여 본 발명의 구성에 대하여 상세히 설명한다.Hereinafter, the configuration of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to preferred embodiments of the present invention and the accompanying drawings.

도 1은 본 발명의 모듈 구성도를 나타낸다. 도시된 바와 같이 강풍위험요인평가 모듈(100), 강풍취약도평가모듈(200), 풍해위험도평가모듈(300), 풍해위험도지표 평가모듈(400)으로 구성된다.1 shows a module configuration diagram of the present invention. As shown in the figure, the system includes a strong wind risk factor evaluation module 100, a strong wind vulnerability assessment module 200, a weather risk assessment module 300, and a weather risk index evaluation module 400.

강풍위험요인모듈(100)은 도 2에서 보여지는 바와 같이 과거태풍정보, 기후변화풍속정보, 사용자입력풍속을 활용하여 강풍위험평가를 수행한다. 수행된 결과는 통상적인 GIS 프로그램에서 활용 가능한 Raster 형태의 격자별 풍속으로 생성된다.As shown in FIG. 2, the strong wind risk factor module 100 performs a strong wind risk assessment using past typhoon information, climate change wind speed information, and user input wind speed. The results obtained are generated in a grid-like lattice wind velocity that can be used in conventional GIS programs.

강풍 취약도 평가 모듈(200)은 도 2에서 보여지는 바와 같이 강풍위험요인평가모듈(100)의 결과와 시설물 정보와 시설물 종류에 따른 취약도 정보를 활용하여 시설물별 피해확율을 산정한다. 시설물별 피해확율은 행정구역 정보를 활용하여 행정구역별 피해확율정보로 변경된다.As shown in FIG. 2, the module 200 evaluates damage probability of each facility by using the result of the module 100 for evaluating a strong wind risk factor, the facility information, and the vulnerability information according to the type of the facility. The probability of damages by facility is changed to the probability rate information by administrative area by using administrative information.

풍해 위험도 평가 모듈(300)에서는 강풍취약도 평가모듈(200)의 최종결과물인 행정구역별 피해 확율 정보를 활용하여 시설물 정보를 활용하여 행정구역별 풍해 위험도를 표출한다.The storm damage risk assessment module 300 utilizes the damage probability information of the administrative districts, which is the final result of the module 200, to express the wind storm risk by the administrative district.

풍해위험도 지표 평가 모듈(400)은 행정구역별 피해확율 정보와 노출도 정보를 활용하여 평가 대상지역의 풍해위험도 지표를 산정한다.The module 410 for estimating the weather risk index uses the information on the probability of damages by the administrative districts and the information on the degree of exposure, and calculates the weather risk index of the area to be evaluated.

도 3에서 도 6은 본 발명의 최종 결과물 중 일부로 GIS 기반으로 풍해 위험도와 관련된 각종 정보를 표출함을 나타내고 있다. FIG. 3 through FIG. 6 show that some of the final products of the present invention display various information related to the weather risk based on GIS.

이상, 첨부 도면을 참조하여 본 발명의 바람직한 실시 예에 대하여 상세히 설명하였으나, 이는 예시에 불과한 것이며 본 발명의 기술적 사상의 범주 내에서 다양한 변형과 변경이 가능하다. 따라서, 본 발명의 권리범위는 이하의 특허청구 범위의 기재에 의하여 정하여져야 할 것이다.
While the preferred embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings, it is to be understood that the invention is not limited to the disclosed embodiments, and various changes and modifications may be made without departing from the scope of the present invention. Accordingly, the scope of the present invention should be defined by the following claims.

100 : 강풍 위험요인 평가 모듈
200 : 강풍 취약도 평가 모듈
300 : 풍해 위험도 평가 모듈
400 : 풍해 위험도 지표 평가 모듈
100: Module for assessing risk factors for strong winds
200: Strong Vulnerability Assessment Module
300: Weatherability Risk Assessment Module
400: Module for assessing weather risk index

Claims (5)

a) 태풍의 이동경로와 중심기압변화를 이용하여 태풍으로 인한 풍속을 시뮬레이션하고 기후변화를 고려하여 미래태풍을 통계적으로 분석하는 강풍위험요인평가 모듈;
b) 시설물의 취약성 DB를 활용하여 각 시설물의 취약성을 평가하는 취약성평가모듈;
c) 강풍위험요인과 강풍취약도를 활용하여 격자별,행정구역별 피해확율을 산출하는 풍해위험도평가모듈;
d) 지역별 피해확율 정보와 피해에 대비하고 복구할 수 있는 정도인 노출도정보를 분석해서 단위 행정구역에 대한 풍해위험도 지표를 표출하는 풍해위험도지표평가모듈로 구성됨을 특징으로 하는 풍해위험도 평가 시스템.
a) a module for evaluating storm risk factors, which simulates the wind speed caused by a typhoon using the movement path of the typhoon and the change in the central atmospheric pressure and statistically analyzes the future typhoon considering the climate change;
b) a vulnerability assessment module that evaluates the vulnerability of each facility using the vulnerability DB of the facility;
c) a module for assessing the degree of wind risk by calculating the probability of damages by grid and administrative area using the strong wind risk factor and the strong wind vulnerability;
and d) a module for evaluating the weather risk index, which displays weather intensity risk indicators for the administrative districts by analyzing information on damage probability of each region and the degree of exposure that can be recovered and prepared for damages.
제 1항에 있어서, 태풍시뮬레이션과 통계분석을 통하여 격자별 Raster형태의 풍속 정보를 제공하는 강풍위험요인평가 모듈이 포함된 시스템.The system according to claim 1, further comprising a gale risk factor evaluation module for providing wind speed information of a grid type by a grid simulation and a statistical analysis. 제 1항에 있어서 상기 취약성평가모듈은 산업용시설물, 농업용시설물, 아파트를 포함하는 취약성 평가결과를 데이터베이스 형태로 제공받아 활용되는 특징가지는 시스템.The vulnerability assessment module of claim 1, wherein the vulnerability assessment module includes an industrial facility, an agricultural facility, and an apartment. 제 1항에 있어서 풍해위험도평가모듈은 시설물펼, 위치별, 행정구역별 위험정도를 파괴량 및 파괴확율의 형태로 제공하는 특징을 가지는 시스템.
The system of claim 1, wherein the weathering risk assessment module provides the degree of danger by facility expansion, location, and administrative area in the form of destruction amount and destruction probability.
제 1항에 있어서 위험도 지표평가 모듈은 노출도 항목으로 인구, 노약자수, 경제수준, 자동차량, 도로의 길이등이 포함되는 특징을 가지는 시스템.

The system according to claim 1, wherein the risk index evaluation module is characterized by including a population, a senior citizen number, an economic level, an automatic vehicle, a road length, and the like.

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