KR20110002637A - Cbr-based cost prediction system and model for pre-design and schematic design phase of public multi-housing construction projects - Google Patents
Cbr-based cost prediction system and model for pre-design and schematic design phase of public multi-housing construction projects Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a CBR-based public apartment planning and planning design stage building construction cost prediction system and its prediction model. CBR-based public apartment planning and planning design stage building construction cost prediction system according to the present invention, the construction cost database unit including the impact factor information and construction cost information for each type of work; An input unit configured to receive public apartment information of a target project under construction; An attribute weight calculation unit for calculating an attribute weight for a building construction cost influencing factor based on the information input to the input unit; An attribute similarity calculation unit that calculates an attribute similarity based on the attribute weight calculated by the attribute weight calculation unit; A similar case extracting unit extracting similar cases from the construction cost database based on the similarity calculated by the attribute similarity calculation unit; A unit price calculator for calculating a construction cost per unit area of the similar cases extracted by the similar case extractor; A construction cost calculation unit configured to calculate a direct construction cost and an indirect construction cost by multiplying the construction cost per unit area calculated by the unit price calculation unit by the area of the target project input to the input unit; It characterized in that it comprises an output unit for outputting the construction cost calculated by the construction cost calculation unit.
Description
The present invention relates to a system of construction cost forecasting system and its model in the planning and planning design phase of public apartments. The present invention relates to a construction cost forecasting system and a prediction model for estimating the construction cost of a public apartment in the planning and planning design stage by extracting the cost per unit area of a case.
Recently, the construction industry is trying to predict the correct construction cost in each project promotion stage for the feasibility study from the planning stage to the construction stage.
The design phase of the construction project is divided into planning stage, planning design stage, basic design stage, and final design stage, and the project cost is more influenced at the early stage of construction project. In addition, how to predict and plan the cost of construction will have a decisive influence on the success of the construction project.
As a result, the importance of the project cost has been recently highlighted, but it is difficult to estimate the project cost due to the lack of project information and uncertainty of major factors affecting the project cost in the early stage of the project.
The major problems in estimating construction costs can be summarized as follows.
First, the public ordering agency estimates the total construction cost based on the existing performance data and the experience of some experts when budgeting a new project.
Second, since the feasibility of the outline is reviewed at the planning stage, only the detailed estimate is executed at the completion of the final design.
Third, public order is destroyed by dumping and quality deterioration is feared due to abnormal low price survey, and controversy over adequacy of construction cost is occurring.
Recently, civil society has raised the concern about the adequacy of construction costs by raising the cost bubble for construction costs. However, there is a concern that simply approaching the budgeting logic will lead to other social waste such as inadequate dumping.
Therefore, for the standardized and optimized rough construction cost calculation task, it is possible to establish a support base for a comprehensive project cost management system that can organically link construction cost forecasting during the planning and planning stages with construction cost forecasting for final design and bidding contracts. There is a need.
In addition, it is necessary to establish a decision-making tool to solve the problem of adequacy of construction cost and to support budget reduction and proper budgeting and execution of national resources when budgeting in public ordering agencies.
Therefore, the present invention has been devised in view of the above-mentioned conventional circumstances, and is to develop a prediction model for public apartment construction cost based on the construction cost per unit area of similar cases extracted by the CBR algorithm to improve prediction accuracy and reliability.
In addition, it provides a method and system for predicting the construction cost of the CBR-based public apartment planning and planning and design stage in order to improve the consistency and productivity through the model approach to enable systematic project cost management.
In order to achieve the above object, CBR-based public apartment planning and planning design stage building construction cost prediction system according to the present invention, the construction cost database unit including the impact factor information and construction cost information for each type of work; An input unit configured to receive public apartment information of a target project under construction; An attribute weight calculation unit for calculating an attribute weight for a building construction cost influencing factor based on the information input to the input unit; An attribute similarity calculation unit that calculates an attribute similarity based on the attribute weight calculated by the attribute weight calculation unit; A similar case extracting unit extracting similar cases from the construction cost database based on the similarity calculated by the attribute similarity calculation unit; A unit price calculator for calculating a construction cost per unit area of the similar cases extracted by the similar case extractor; A construction cost calculation unit configured to calculate the direct construction cost and the indirect construction cost by multiplying the construction cost per unit area calculated by the unit price calculation unit by the area of the target project input to the input unit; It is configured to include an output unit for outputting the construction cost calculated by the construction cost calculation unit.
In addition, the CBR-based public apartment planning and planning design stage building construction cost prediction modeling method according to the present invention to achieve the above object, to build a public apartment building construction classification system and to determine the factors affecting the construction cost of the public apartment planning and planning design stage Establishing and constructing a construction cost database for the construction construction cost prediction model in the public apartment planning and planning design phase; Inputting project information including a project summary, complex information, and the information about the target project for which the project cost is to be predicted; Estimating the construction cost based on the CBR by linking the inputted information with the constructed construction cost database for the target project for which the construction cost is to be estimated; And outputting the predicted direct construction cost / indirect construction cost prediction result and the total construction cost prediction result for the target project for which the construction cost is to be predicted by the input information.
As described above, according to the present invention, the construction cost can be predicted through the public apartment planning and planning design stage construction cost prediction model, and the prediction accuracy and reliability can be improved.
In addition, by calculating the construction cost of public apartments according to the construction cost prediction model in the planning and planning stages of public apartments, the construction costs of various constructions such as building construction, civil engineering, machinery construction, electrical construction, telecommunication construction, and landscaping construction are systematic and consistent. It is possible to calculate the construction cost, and more realistic and accurate prediction of construction cost is possible through inquiry of similar cases by type of construction.
In addition, it is possible to reduce the budget of the national finance through the effect of shortening the cost forecast period and cost reduction.
Hereinafter, the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
CBR-based public apartment planning and planning design stage building construction cost prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention is the
The
The construction
Here, the influence factor information for each type of construction means an influence factor that affects the construction cost by being classified according to the characteristics of each construction, and the influence factor information for each construction type is respectively constructed at the planning stage and the planning design stage of the construction, and the construction
For example, factors affecting the cost of building construction may include the total floor area of each public apartment, the number of households, household composition, the number of elevators, and the size of the underground parking lot.
The
In order to input predetermined data through the
The
Here, the attribute
In other words, in order to derive a similar case for the target project, the weight of each influencer attribute included in the similar case should be judged. Or to correct a predetermined value for each influencer attribute in order to extract a more accurate estimate of the construction cost of the target project.
The attribute similarity calculation unit 22 calculates the attribute similarity based on the attribute weight calculated by the attribute
The similar
Here, the similar
The
The construction
The calculated construction cost is displayed through the
As described above, in order to predict the construction cost of public apartments, appropriate data for the construction cost prediction should be stored in the construction
Hereinafter, the construction cost prediction modeling method for enabling the system construction described above will be described in more detail.
CBR (Case Based Reasoning) based public apartment planning and planning design stage building construction cost prediction modeling method according to an embodiment of the present invention can be divided into six steps as follows.
Step 1: Analyzing Public Apartment Building Data
Phase 2: Public Apartment Planning and Planning Design Stage
Stage 3: Public weighting of property factors for construction cost
Stage 4: Planning and Planning of Public Apartment Stage Database Construction Cost Prediction Model
Stage 5: Public Apartment Planning and Planning Design Stage
Stage 6: Public Apartment Planning and Planning Design Stage Building Construction Cost Prediction Model Development
Each of these steps is described as follows.
Step 1: Analyzing Public Apartment Building Data
The construction cost database of public apartments differs according to the project progress stages (planning, planning and design stages), and the construction cost estimation model is constructed based on the construction costs.
There are some differences in the amount of construction by public apartment type, and the analysis is done through a standardized classification system so that components of each type can be properly reflected in the total construction cost. The construction cost classification system breaks down the construction cost data at the planning stage and uses them at the planning and design stage, and has a level of detail appropriate for the purpose of calculating the construction costs at each stage.
The database of public apartments is analyzed based on the apartment data of domestic public institutions, and the construction cost of the planning stage is largely divided into the construction sector and the non-building sector, and then divided by construction type.
The building division is a building construction, which is divided into apartment buildings, underground parking lots, and auxiliary facilities. The building division is divided into civil works, mechanical works, electrical works, telecommunication works, and landscaping works.
Planning and design phase The construction cost is divided into the construction and non-building sectors as in the planning stage, and the construction sector is the same as the planning stage, but the non-building sector is the civil engineering (unit, general), mechanical construction (indoor, outdoor, underground), electricity It can be divided into construction (indoor, outdoor, underground), communication construction (indoor, outdoor), and landscaping.
The data will be analyzed for each division.
Based on the analyzed cost data, the classification system of public apartment building construction cost is constructed. <Table 1> ~ <Table 3> show the construction cost classification system of public apartment building construction.
<Table 1> Construction Cost Classification System (Direct Cost)
<Table 2> Construction Cost Classification in the Plan Design Stage
<Table 3> Construction Cost Classification System for Public Apartments
◇ Stage 2: Planning Factors for Construction Costs for Public Apartment
Influence factors for extracting similar cases of building construction cost estimation model should be classified according to the characteristics of the construction, because the characteristics of each construction are different and the influence factors affecting the construction costs.
In the present embodiment, when similar cases are extracted, the following ranges are defined.
⑴ Planning stage
■ Construction> Gakdong, Underground Parking, Affiliated Building
■ Civil works
■ Mechanical work
■ Electric work
■ Communication work
■ Landscaping Construction
⑵ Design stage
■ Construction> Gakdong, Underground Parking, Affiliated Building
■ Civil Works> Units, General
■ Mechanical work> Indoor, outdoor, underground
■ Electric work> Indoor, outdoor, underground
■ Communications> Indoor, Outdoor
■ Landscaping Construction
The characteristics of factors affecting the construction cost in the planning stage are as follows: ① Construction> Each building is affected by the number of households, total floor area, household composition, number of elevators, floors, number of households per elevator and piloti households. ② Construction work> Attached building is affected by total floor area. ③ Construction work> Underground parking lot, construction cost is affected by total area, underground floor and parking lot. ④ Civil engineering works are affected by total floor area, construction area, and number of buildings. ⑤ Mechanical work, ⑥ Electric works are affected by land area, total number of households, same number, basement floor area. Construction cost is affected by total floor area. ⑧ Landscaping works are affected by construction area and landscaping area. The influence factors available at the planning stage are shown in <Table 4>.
<Table 4> Factors Affecting Public Apartment Construction Costs
The characteristics of factors affecting the cost of building construction in the planning and design stage are as follows: ① Construction> Each building is affected by the number of households, total floor area, household composition, elevators, floors, the number of households per elevator, and piloti households. ② Construction work> Attached building is affected by total floor area. ③ Construction work> Underground parking lot, construction cost is affected by total area, underground floor and parking lot. ④ Civil works> General is affected by building area, occupancy rate, and number. ⑤ Civil works> Units are affected by building area and number. ⑥ Mechanical work> Indoor is affected by land area, total floor area, total number of households, same number. ⑦ Mechanical work> Outdoor is affected by land area, dry area rate, same number. ⑧ Mechanical work> Underground area, dry area rate, The construction cost is affected by total floor area and underground parking lot area. ⑨ Electrical works> Indoors are affected by land area and total floor area. ⑩ Electrical works> Outdoor work is affected by building area coverage, supplementary facility total area and total area. ⑪ Electrical works> Ground area, number of houses, total number of households, The cost of construction is affected by the underground parking lot area. ⑫ Telecommunications> Indoors are affected by land area, number of houses and building area. ⑬ Telecommunications> Outdoors are affected by land area, number of trees, underground parking lot area, total floor area and total number of households. ⑭ Landscaping works are affected by construction area and landscaping area. The influence factors that can be used in the plan design stage are shown in <Table 5>.
<Table 5> Influencing Factors of Public Apartment Building Construction
◇ Stage 3: Estimation of attribute weighting factors of construction cost in public apartment planning and planning design stage
In order to determine the similarity of attributes of similar cases, it is necessary to determine the weight of the attributes along with the similarity of the defined attributes. Since it is somewhat subjective to determine the weight of attributes in case-based reasoning (CBR), machine learning methods such as fuzzy algorithm, neural network theory, and genetic algorithm are used.
In the present embodiment, a method using a genetic algorithm and a method by multiple regression analysis are used in civil engineering, mechanical work, electrical work, communication work, and landscaping work that are non-building work in the case of a building work.
The method of estimating the attribute weighting value by the genetic algorithm of the building sector is as follows.
The construction cost information can be extracted by multiplying the influence factor set by the appropriate factor. Based on this, if the attribute of each case is X ij , the construction cost information of the corresponding column is C j , and the weight is W j , it can be derived as in Equation (1) below.
For the non-building sector, it can be derived using standardized regression coefficients through multiple regression analysis. This can be derived, for example, using the function of the commercial program SPSS, or can be re-expressed as the degree of influence of each property such that the sum of each coefficient is 1 using the absolute value of the derived standardized regression coefficient.
◇ Stage 4: Public Apartment Planning and Planning Design Stage Building Project Cost Database
Public apartment planning and planning design phase The construction of the database of the project cost planning model is based on the classification system of the planning and planning design phase. In the database of the construction cost prediction model, the relevant information and the cost of the influence factors of each construction model are stored.
Influence factors are used to select similar cases using CBR in future models and systems, and construction cost information provides construction cost per unit area of similar cases by selecting and extracting similar cases.
Examples of databases of building construction cost estimation models in the planning and planning design stages are shown in <Table 6> to <Table 7>.
<Table 6> Public Apartment Building Project in the Planning Stage> Database (Sample) of Underground Parking Lot
<Table 7> Public apartment electric work in planning and design stage> Database (sample)
◇ Stage 5: Public Apartment Project Cost Planning and Planning Design Stage
The method of calculating the construction cost per unit area using the relation function and the method of utilizing the construction cost per unit area of the extracted single similar case can be applied to the construction construction cost calculation. As follows.
방법 Method of estimating construction cost per unit area using relation function
This method is to calculate the construction cost per unit area by extracting the plural cases of upper case based on the score of case similarity in the method of selecting similar cases using CBR. In case of extracting the case, the case with the highest case similarity score is set as a default value, and a plurality of cases can be extracted according to the user's judgment.
Since the database includes the total floor area, the number of households, and the total construction cost by case, the construction cost can be predicted by the influencing factors such as the construction cost per unit area and the construction cost per household.
This construction cost prediction process is shown in FIG.
In the drawing, for example, the construction cost forecasting process is performed in a web-based system. First, a predetermined condition, for example, information about a public apartment of a target project is applied to a web-based system in which the cost forecasting process is driven. Once entered (step S1), the web-based system calculates the attribute similarity based on the input information (step S2), applies the attribute weight (step S3) to calculate the case similarity (step S4), and calculates Based on the case similarity, similar cases are extracted from the various cases stored in the database (step S5) (in this case, only the similar cases with the highest similarity or similar cases can be extracted in the order of high similarity), and the extracted similar cases Deriving the unit cost of the project (step S6) and multiplying the derived unit price by the total area of the target project public apartment to predict the total construction cost The result data is outputted (step S7).
In this case, the estimated cost of construction may be output based on a plurality of similar cases, and the results may be compared.
공사 Cost calculation method based on cost database per unit area (㎡)
As a similar case calculation method through CBR, the construction cost is calculated by multiplying the construction cost per unit area constructed through the construction cost analysis by the area corresponding to each part. For example, in the case of civil engineering, the cost per unit area of a similar case is calculated by multiplying the land area. The targets for the cost of construction based on the cost per unit area are as follows.
⑴ Planning stage
-Civil Engineering
-Mechanical work
-Electric work
-Communication work
-Landscaping construction
⑵ Design stage
-Civil Engineering> Unit, General
-Mechanical work> Indoor, outdoor, underground
-Electric work> Indoor, outdoor, underground
-Telecom> Indoor, Outdoor
-Landscaping construction
<Table 8> shows how to calculate construction cost for each type of work.
<Table 8> Estimation Method of Construction Costs by Public Apartment Types
◇ Stage 6: Development of cost forecast model for public apartment planning and planning
The construction cost forecasting model of public apartment planning and planning design phase is classified as follows based on the above factors, database, and construction cost estimation method.
⑴ Construction cost database construction stage
입력 Information input stage of project-Construction outline information of project
단계 Project cost estimating step
출력 Report output stage of project cost calculation result
Specifically, the public apartment construction cost prediction model method includes a construction cost database step; Information input step of the public apartment project; Calculating the construction cost of public apartments; Includes a report output step for the result of construction cost estimation.
⑴ The database construction stage basically includes the impact factor information and construction cost information for each sector. Influencer information is used when searching similar cases using CBR in the future model.
⑵ In the information input step, input the summary information such as the name of the project, the person in charge, the ordering organization, and the design year to register the target project for the construction cost calculation in the system.
Information about the project should be divided into only information and management information to minimize duplicate entries. The complex information is information describing the project that calculates the construction cost with information such as total floor area, landscaping area, building area, land area, number of people, total number of households, and the information is the same category, name, area type, total floor area, number of households. The information used in the process of selecting similar cases for estimating the construction cost of each building, subsidiary facilities, and underground parking lot, including the number of households, the number of households, the number of floors, and the number of elevators.
<Table 9> shows project summary input information.
In this information input step, an input screen for dividing each input item may be displayed on the
공사 Project Cost Calculation Stage of Project: The stage of calculating the construction cost of public apartment is largely divided into construction work and non-building work.
The construction cost calculation process of building works is divided into building, guard room, senior management, and underground parking lot. The construction cost calculation for the building, guard room, management old person, and underground parking lot is based on the project information entered above, and the construction cost is calculated through the inquiry and selection process of similar cases in the database. The construction cost is calculated through the same process.
The construction cost is calculated by multiplying the construction cost per unit area of the selected similar case by the area information of the new project. If it is determined that the direct construction cost is not appropriate, the user directly corrects the construction cost through expert correction.
출력 Report output stage of the project cost calculation result: The report output step of the project cost calculation result is a part that aggregates the calculation result of public apartment building construction cost and outputs the report. Provides the cost of construction, mechanical work, electrical work, telecommunication work and landscaping work. In addition, the details of the construction cost calculation method are presented as the basis for the construction cost calculation process.
3 is a diagram conceptually illustrating a method for predicting modeling of building construction cost based on a CBR-based public apartment planning and planning design step according to an embodiment of the present invention.
The CBR-based public apartment planning and planning design phase building construction cost prediction modeling method includes a construction cost database construction step, information input step, construction cost calculation step and output step.
In the construction cost database construction step of the present invention, the public apartment building construction classification system is established according to the above steps 1 to 4, the factors affecting the construction cost for each public apartment planning and planning design are set, and the construction cost for the public apartment planning and planning design stage You can build a database for predictive models.
In the information input step of the present invention, the project information, such as the project overview, complex information and the same information is input to the project to predict the construction cost of the CBR-based public apartment planning and planning design stage.
In the construction cost calculation process step of the present invention, the construction cost is calculated based on the information input in the information input step in conjunction with the construction cost database constructed in the project construction cost database construction step.
In the output step of the present invention, the prediction result of the direct construction cost / indirect construction cost and the total construction cost prediction result for the project are output based on the information input in the information input step.
Figure 4 is a detailed flowchart of the construction cost estimation process in the CBR-based public apartment planning and planning design stage building construction cost prediction modeling method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
First, in the construction cost calculation process according to the present invention, the construction summary of the new project for which the construction cost is to be predicted is input (step S10).
Then, the design stage to be predicted is set. Here, the steps to be predicted may be divided into a planning step (step S20) and a plan design step (step S30). These planning stages and planning stages are linked to their respective databases, which include a business information database and a construction cost database.
Then, the model to be predicted is selected (step S40). Here, the work type is divided into each building construction, underground parking lot building construction, civil engineering, mechanical equipment construction, electrical equipment construction, communication equipment construction, landscaping construction, auxiliary facilities construction.
After that, the project summary information, the basic information of the public apartment complex, and the same information for each building are input (step S50). Steps S10 to S50 correspond to the information input step, and subsequent steps correspond to the construction cost calculation process step.
Subsequently, the index corresponding to the input information is compared in the database to calculate the attribute weight value for the influence factor to calculate the attribute similarity degree (steps S60 to S90).
The construction cost per unit area of similar cases with the highest attribute similarity is compared by comparing the attribute similarity and examined. If the construction cost of the similar case is not appropriate, the expert may perform correction (steps S100 to S120).
Next, the direct construction cost is calculated by the method as illustrated in Table 8 above (step S130).
The total construction cost is calculated by calculating the indirect construction cost based on the direct construction cost. And direct and indirect cost and total cost is stored in the database.
As described above, the CBR-based public apartment planning and planning design stage building construction cost prediction model is completed.
That is, the building construction cost prediction model can predict the reliable building construction cost in the public apartment planning and planning design stage.
The present invention is not limited to the above specific embodiments, but can be practiced by various modifications and modifications without departing from the gist of the present invention. If such changes and modifications fall within the scope of the appended claims, it will be apparent that they are included in the present invention.
1 is a functional block diagram of a building construction cost prediction system of a CBR-based public apartment planning and planning design stage according to an embodiment of the present invention,
3 is a diagram conceptually illustrating a CBR-based public apartment planning and planning design stage building construction cost prediction modeling method according to an embodiment of the present invention,
Figure 4 is a detailed flowchart of the process cost estimation process step in the CBR-based public apartment planning step construction cost prediction modeling method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
* Explanation of symbols for the main parts of the drawings
10: input unit 20: control unit
21: Attribute Weight Calculation 22: Attribute Similarity Calculation
23: similar case extraction unit 24: unit price calculation unit
25: construction cost calculation unit 30: database unit
40: output unit
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| JP2019021071A (en) * | 2017-07-18 | 2019-02-07 | 株式会社竹中工務店 | Adjustment coefficient estimation device, model learning device, and method |
| CN116542725A (en) * | 2023-05-17 | 2023-08-04 | 北京永拓工程咨询股份有限公司 | Engineering cost index measuring database system based on big data |
| CN116681479A (en) * | 2023-05-06 | 2023-09-01 | 北京永拓工程咨询股份有限公司 | Construction engineering cost evaluation management system |
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2009
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| JP2019021071A (en) * | 2017-07-18 | 2019-02-07 | 株式会社竹中工務店 | Adjustment coefficient estimation device, model learning device, and method |
| CN108804759A (en) * | 2018-05-03 | 2018-11-13 | 上海大学 | A kind of engineering product design method of case-based reasioning |
| CN116681479A (en) * | 2023-05-06 | 2023-09-01 | 北京永拓工程咨询股份有限公司 | Construction engineering cost evaluation management system |
| CN116542725A (en) * | 2023-05-17 | 2023-08-04 | 北京永拓工程咨询股份有限公司 | Engineering cost index measuring database system based on big data |
| CN116542725B (en) * | 2023-05-17 | 2024-02-23 | 北京永拓工程咨询股份有限公司 | Engineering cost index measuring database system based on big data |
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