KR102277856B1 - Socio-hydrological system for supporting decisions on water resources policy and operating method thereof - Google Patents

Abstract

The present invention relates to a technical idea for supporting decision-making on a water resource related policy by analyzing human, social and hydrological influences on a downstream area due to construction of a multi-purpose dam and, more specifically, to a technique for supporting decision-making on a water resource utilization policy in a specific area by quantifying humanities and sociological values and hydrological values resulting from construction of a multi-purpose dam and interrelating and analyzing the quantified values. The technique supports planning and policy establishment for climate change adaptation through development of sociological and hydrological models and supports multi-purpose dam influence evaluation between local governments in which domestic multi-purpose dams are located.

Description

SOCIO-HYDROLOGICAL SYSTEM FOR SUPPORTING DECISIONS ON WATER RESOURCES POLICY AND OPERATING METHOD THEREOF

The present invention relates to a technical idea that supports decision-making on water resources-related policies by analyzing the humanistic, social and hydrological effects of a multi-purpose dam. Specifically, the social and hydrological values resulting from the construction of a multi-purpose dam are quantified, and the quantified value It is about a technology that supports decision-making on water resource utilization policies in a specific area by interpreting the

All of the four major civilizations of mankind were developed centered on water, and the basin of the birthplace of civilization was fertile and played a pivotal role in agriculture, transportation, and trade. Each civilization began to develop based on access to water, and people formed an organizational culture by living a settled life near the watershed. After that, irrigation agriculture was carried out with the use of abundant water. In particular, the ancient Roman Empire first introduced the concept of water and sewage systems and built irrigation facilities to achieve its heyday. As such, human history is directly or indirectly connected with water, and it can be seen that water played an important role in the development of civilization.

In the early stage of water resource development, research focused on understanding natural phenomena and utilizing the secured water resources. However, as the economy develops and society becomes more sophisticated, research that can consider not only engineering factors but also the interests of various humanities and social factors such as economy, environment, and ecosystem is needed.

In addition, interest in securing and utilizing sustainable water resources is increasing recently due to the effects of climate change. Therefore, research on various topics that consider humanities and sociological factors in hydrology has begun, and an interdisciplinary study called socio-hydrology that considers both the humanities and social sciences and water resources has emerged.

Social hydrology is described by Sivapalan et al. (2012) presented as a field to study the dynamics of the interaction and interaction between humans and water, and the feedback process, and socio-hydrological research is a humanities society that goes beyond the individual understanding of each system, such as a social system or a hydrological system. The purpose of this study is to understand the changes in the system and the entire hydrological system.

In particular, the water resources field is closely related to human activities, and due to the changes in the humanities and social fields that are becoming more diverse and complex, the water resources field is also interacting in a developed form. Therefore, social hydrology research is being conducted that considers hydrological factors and various humanities and sociological factors in a complex way. Social hydrology research will analyze the interaction between the water resources field and the humanities and social fields, and can be utilized for future water resource policies and planning for large-scale water resource facilities.

In Korea, most of the annual rainfall is concentrated in the summer between June and September, so flooding occurs frequently in summer. On the other hand, in the season from autumn to spring, the water supply is insufficient due to the continuous dry climate. As such, the seasonality of rainfall is concentrated, which may limit the stable use of water resources.

In addition, the recent increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts and floods due to abnormal climate is expected to further exacerbate the vulnerability in terms of water resource supply and use. Therefore, it is necessary to make efforts to use water resources sustainably to adapt to climate change that may occur in the future. Multipurpose dams can be a way to overcome these problems and enable water resource management through efficient operation. The dam storage space is secured prior to the flood season to prevent flood damage, and the water stored in the dam is utilized during normal or non-flood seasons to supply water necessary for living, industry, and agriculture.

In addition, multi-purpose dams provide additional social and economic benefits in the downstream area by performing roles such as water storage, water supply, flood control, and securing necessary water in case of drought. Flood control can prevent flood damage in downstream areas, thereby reducing crop damage. The decrease in migrants due to water disasters can lead to a continuous influx of people to the area. In case of dry season or drought, water needed for living, industrial and agriculture can be used stably by supplying the existing secured water. Prevention of flood damage, influx of population, and securing water can affect regional economic revitalization in the long term.

Therefore, in order to simulate a series of social and hydrological changes that may occur due to the construction of a multi-purpose dam as described above, a socio-hydraulic system model that can understand the cyclical relationship between the human and social system and the hydrological system in the area where the multi-purpose dam was built will be proposed. there is a need

Korea Patent Registration No. 10-1912627, "GIS-based hydrology-hydraulic model analysis result integrated visualization method" Korean Patent Laid-Open Patent No. 10-2016-0044810, "Naturalization method for hydrological stability of agricultural reservoirs" Korean Patent Registration No. 10-1315121, "GIS-based flood protection system and method" Korean Patent No. 10-0990362, "Integrated facility management system using regional data collection and recording devices"

Lanini, S., Courtois, N., Giraud, F., Petit, V., & Rinaudo, J. D. (2004). Socio-hydro system modeling for integrated water-resources management—the Hιrault catchment case study, southern France. Kuil, L., Carr, G., Viglione, A., Prskawetz, A., & Blφschl, G. (2016). Conceptualizing socio-hydroological drought processes: The case of the Maya collapse. Liu, D., Tian, F., Lin, M., & Sivapalan, M. (2015). A conceptual socio-hydrological model of the co-evolution of humans and water: case study of the Tarim River basin, western China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19(2), 1035-1054.

The present invention has a character of two-way evolution, not one-way, considering the elements of the sociology field and the hydrology field related to the construction of a water resource structure at the same time, and dynamically analyzes the interrelationship between the sociology field and the hydrology field to give a decision on water resources-related policy. It aims to provide a decision tool.

The present invention quantitatively analyzes the humanities and sociological and hydrological changes caused by multi-purpose dams by generating a causal map for causal relationship analysis that considers the nature of two-way rather than one-way evolution by considering the elements of the field of sociology and the field of hydrology at the same time. aim to do

An object of the present invention is to provide a model for analyzing the effects of multi-purpose dams on population increase, flood damage prevention, water supply, economic growth, and the like in a target watershed.

An object of the present invention is to provide an evaluation model that can understand the complex interconnection process between humanities and sociological factors and water resource factors, and simultaneously consider the effects of precipitation, climate change, population, land use, and the like.

The present invention analyzes the dynamic change of the target area by interconnecting and analyzing the elements of the sociology field related to the construction of water resource structures and the elements of the hydrology field, predicts the future of the target area through the application of climate change and socioeconomic scenarios, and predicts the predicted Based on the future, social and economic impact assessment and alternatives are prepared, quantitative analysis in the socio-hydrological aspect of the target area due to the construction of multi-purpose dams, and the intention of water resources-related policies that can be used as policies and decision-making tools when designing structures related to water resources It aims to provide a social hydrological system to support decision making.

According to an embodiment of the present invention, the social hydrology system supporting decision-making of water resources-related policies classifies the background data of the target area to which the water resources-related policy according to the construction of a multi-purpose dam is applied into sociology field elements and hydrology field elements, A causal relationship analysis module that generates a causal map by analyzing the causal relationship between the classified elements of the sociology field and the classified elements of the hydrology field, a socioeconomic scenario and a climate change scenario, and the classification based on the generated causal map Predict the sociology/hydraulic field changes in which the sociology field changes of the elements of the sociology field and the hydrology field changes of the classified hydrology field elements are linked, and the predicted sociology/hydraulic field changes and the generated causality Calculate the water demand according to the map, calculate the watershed inflow according to the predicted changes in the sociology/hydraulic field and the generated causal map, and calculate the discharge amount of the multi-purpose dam based on the calculated water demand. Evaluate the safety level of flooding according to the module, the calculated water demand and the calculated watershed inflow, and the safety of flooding according to the calculated discharge, and decision-making on water resources-related policies according to the evaluated safety level of flooding and the evaluated flooding safety It may include a decision support module that supports

The causal relationship analysis module includes at least two or more of urban land, industrial land, agricultural land, gross regional domestic product (GRDP), natural disaster damage, flooded area, water supply safety rate, or population as the elements of the sociology field and classify at least two or more of industrial water demand, dam storage, precipitation, inflow, agricultural water demand, outflow and domestic water demand into the hydrology field factors, and the sociology field elements and the hydrology field elements Analyze the causal relationship with positive feedback changing in the same direction and negative feedback changing in different directions, and using arrows, positive signs, and negative signs based on the analyzed causal relationship and generate the causal map representing the positive feedback and the negative feedback between discipline elements and the hydrology discipline elements.

The socio-hydraulic module includes the socio-economic scenario including the birth rate, economic output per industrial site area, and domestic water demand, and occurrence of localized heavy rain, long-term drought, reduction in snow cover, change in snowmelt period, abnormal temperature or single flood. Assuming the climate change scenario including at least one, population, regional gross domestic product, water supply safety factor, flood damage amount, residential land, agricultural land, industrial land inundation according to the assumed socioeconomic scenario and the assumed climate change scenario Predicting changes in the field of sociology including at least two of the area and changes in the field of hydrology including at least two or more of dam storage, inflow, outflow, domestic water demand, agricultural water demand, industrial water demand, and water shortage , taking into account births, deaths, the industrial land, the residential land, the gross regional product and the displaced population due to natural disasters for the population along with the predicted hydrology sector changes, the population relative to the gross regional product , Considering the damage caused by the industrial land, the agricultural land, and natural disasters, and considering the water supply safety factor for living water, industrial water, agricultural water, river maintenance water, and water supply amount, and considering the flood damage amount for the flood damage amount Considering the maximum runoff, the sum of the flood season runoff, and the flooded area, taking into account the population, the gross regional product, the industrial land and the agricultural land for the residential site, and the gross regional product and the dwelling for the agricultural land Considering the land, the industrial land, and the flooded area, the sociological field changes are predicted by considering the sum of the flood season maximum runoff and the flood season runoff for the flooded area, and the dam with the predicted sociological field changes Considering the inflow, the outflow, the limited storage, the minimum storage, the evaporation and the minimum outflow for the stored water, and the precipitation, the outflow coefficient, and the watershed area for the inflow, the inflow, the stored water, and the limit for the outflow the amount of water stored, the minimum amount of water stored, the minimum amount of runoff, and Consider evaporation, consider water supply population, water supply supply rate, and per capita water consumption for the water demand for living, consider agricultural land and per unit of agricultural land for the agricultural water demand, and consider industrial land for the industrial water demand And it is possible to predict the changes in the hydrology field by considering the raw unit per site area, and considering the total water demand and the available water supply for the water shortage.

The social hydrology module includes a population change module, a land use module, an economic evaluation module, an inflow amount calculation module, a dam operation determination module and a dam water balance analysis module, and the population change module is, birth and death for the population , the rate of population change is calculated in consideration of the industrial site, the residential site, the gross regional product and the population moving out due to natural disasters, and the land use module considers the change of the residential site, the agricultural site, and the industrial site to calculate the land use change rate, and the economic evaluation module calculates the change in regional gross domestic product of the target area using the calculated population change rate and the calculated land use change rate, and the inflow calculation module includes: Calculates the inflow in consideration of the precipitation amount, outflow coefficient, and watershed area, and the dam operation decision module includes limited storage, minimum storage, evaporation and minimum runoff based on the calculated inflow and the calculated water demand. to determine the operating conditions of the multi-purpose dam, and the water balance analysis module may calculate the outflow amount for the target area based on the determined operating conditions and the water balance equation.

The decision support module calculates the flood damage area and damage amount and the water supply safety level based on the evaluated water safety level and the evaluated dimensional safety level, and feeds back the quantitative value of the calculated water supply safety level, while the By reflecting the calculated flood damage area and damage amount and water supply safety in the sociology module, it is possible to predict changes in additional sociology fields by analyzing the predicted changes in the sociology field.

According to an embodiment of the present invention, the operation method of the social hydrology system that supports decision-making of water resources-related policies is a causal relationship analysis module, where the background data of the target area to which the water resource-related policy according to the construction of a multi-purpose dam is applied is combined with the elements of the sociology field. Classifying into hydrology field elements and analyzing the causal relationship between the classified elements of the sociology field and the classified elements of the hydrology field to generate a causal map; in the socio-hydrology module, socioeconomic scenario and climate change Based on the scenario and the generated causal map, the sociology field changes of the classified elements of the sociology field and the changes of the hydrology field of the classified elements of the hydrology field are linked, and the predicted sociology/hydraulic field changes are predicted. Calculate the water demand according to the sociology/hydraulic field changes and the generated causal map, calculate the watershed inflow according to the predicted sociology/hydraulic field change and the generated causal map, and calculate the calculated water demand In the step of calculating the discharge amount of the multi-purpose dam based on It may include the step of supporting decision-making of a water resource-related policy according to the figure and the evaluated water level safety level.

The background data of the target area to which the water resource-related policy according to the multi-purpose dam construction will be applied is classified into sociology field elements and hydrology field elements, and the causal relationship between the classified elements of the sociology field and the classified elements of the hydrology field is analyzed. The step of generating a causal map by analyzing includes at least two or more of urban land, industrial land, agricultural land, gross regional domestic product (GRDP), natural disaster damage, flooded area, water supply safety rate, or population in the sociology classifying into field factors, and classifying at least two or more of industrial water demand, dam storage, precipitation, inflow, agricultural water demand, outflow and domestic water demand into the hydrology field factors, the sociology field elements and the above Analyzing the causal relationship in which elements of the hydrology field change in the same direction as positive feedback and negative feedback changing in different directions, and arrows, positive signs, and negative signs based on the analyzed causal relationships and generating the causal map representing the positive feedback and the negative feedback between the elements of the sociology field and the elements of the hydrology field using .

Based on the socio-economic scenario and climate change scenario and the generated causal map, changes in the sociology/hydrology field in which the sociology field changes of the classified elements of the sociology field and the hydrology changes of the classified elements of the hydrology field are linked Predict, calculate the water demand according to the predicted sociology/hydraulic field changes and the generated causal map, and calculate the watershed inflow according to the predicted sociology/hydraulic field changes and the generated causal map, , the step of calculating the discharge amount of the multi-purpose dam based on the calculated water demand is the socio-economic scenario including the birth rate, the economic output per industrial site area, and the domestic water demand, the occurrence of localized heavy rain, long-term drought, reduction of snow cover, Assuming the climate change scenario including at least one of a change in snowmelting period, an abnormal temperature, or a single flood, the population, the regional gross domestic product, the water supply safety factor, and the flood according to the assumed socioeconomic scenario and the assumed climate change scenario Changes in the sociological field, including at least two or more of damage amount, residential land, agricultural land, industrial land, and flooded area, and at least two of dam storage, inflow, outflow, domestic water demand, agricultural water demand, industrial water demand, and water shortage Predicting changes in the hydrology field including the above, but with the predicted changes in the hydrology field, births, deaths, the industrial site, the residential site, the population moving out due to natural disasters Considering the amount of damage caused by the population, the industrial land, the agricultural land and natural disasters with respect to the gross regional product, and for the water supply safety factor, living water, industrial water, agricultural water, river maintenance water, water Considering the available supply, considering the maximum flood period, the sum of the flood period and the flooded area with respect to the flood damage amount, and considering the population, the gross regional product, the industrial land and the agricultural land for the residential site, For the agricultural land, the gross regional product, the residential land, the industrial land and Predicting the sociological field changes in consideration of the flooded area and the sum of the flood period maximum runoff amount and the flood season runoff amount with respect to the flooded area, and the inflow with respect to the dam storage water quantity together with the predicted sociological field changes , taking into account the outflow, limited storage, minimum storage, evaporation and minimum outflow, taking into account precipitation, outflow coefficient, and watershed area for the inflow, and taking into account the outflow, the inflow, the storage, the limited storage, the minimum storage , taking into account the minimum runoff and evaporation, considering the water supply population, water supply supply rate, and per capita water consumption for the domestic water demand, and considering agricultural land and per unit of agricultural land for the agricultural water demand, and the industrial water The method may include estimating changes in the hydrology field in consideration of industrial land and basic units per site area for the demand, and total water demand and available water supply for the water shortage.

The present invention has a character of two-way evolution, not one-way, considering the elements of the sociology field and the hydrology field related to the construction of a water resource structure at the same time, and dynamically analyzes the interrelationship between the sociology field and the hydrology field to give a decision on water resources-related policy. Decision tools can be provided.

The present invention quantitatively analyzes the humanities and sociological and hydrological changes caused by multi-purpose dams by generating a causal map for causal relationship analysis that considers the nature of two-way rather than one-way evolution by considering the elements of the field of sociology and the field of hydrology at the same time can do.

The present invention can provide a model for analyzing the effects of multi-purpose dams on population increase, flood damage prevention, water supply, economic growth, etc. in the target watershed.

The present invention can provide an evaluation model that can understand the complex interconnection process between humanities and sociological factors and water resource factors, and simultaneously consider the effects of precipitation, climate change, population, land use, and the like.

The present invention analyzes the dynamic change of the target area by interconnecting and analyzing the elements of the sociology field related to the construction of water resource structures and the elements of the hydrology field, predicts the future of the target area through climate change and socio-economic scenarios, and predicts the predicted Based on the future, social and economic impact assessment and alternatives are prepared, quantitative analysis in the socio-hydrological aspect of the target area due to the construction of multi-purpose dams, and the intention of water resources-related policies that can be used as policies and decision-making tools when designing structures related to water resources A social hydrological system can be provided to support decision-making.

1 is a diagram illustrating a social hydrology system that supports decision-making of a water resource-related policy according to an embodiment of the present invention.
2 is a view for explaining a social hydrology module according to an embodiment of the present invention.
3 is a diagram for explaining a causal map according to an embodiment of the present invention.
4A to 4C are diagrams for explaining a linkage analysis based on a causal relationship analysis of a social hydrology module according to an embodiment of the present invention.
5 to 7 are diagrams for explaining an operating method of a social hydrology system supporting decision-making of a water resource-related policy according to an embodiment of the present invention.
8A to 9C are diagrams illustrating simulation results of a social hydrological system supporting decision-making of a water resource-related policy according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Specific structural or functional descriptions of the embodiments according to the concept of the present invention disclosed herein are only exemplified for the purpose of explaining the embodiments according to the concept of the present invention, and the embodiment according to the concept of the present invention These may be embodied in various forms and are not limited to the embodiments described herein.

Since the embodiments according to the concept of the present invention may have various changes and may have various forms, the embodiments will be illustrated in the drawings and described in detail herein. However, this is not intended to limit the embodiments according to the concept of the present invention to specific disclosed forms, and includes changes, equivalents, or substitutes included in the spirit and scope of the present invention.

Terms such as first or second may be used to describe various elements, but the elements should not be limited by the terms. The above terms are used only for the purpose of distinguishing one element from another element, for example, without departing from the scope of rights according to the concept of the present invention, a first element may be named as a second element, Similarly, the second component may also be referred to as the first component.

When a component is referred to as being “connected” or “connected” to another component, it is understood that the other component may be directly connected or connected to the other component, but other components may exist in between. it should be On the other hand, when it is mentioned that a certain element is "directly connected" or "directly connected" to another element, it should be understood that the other element does not exist in the middle. Expressions describing the relationship between elements, for example, “between” and “between” or “directly adjacent to”, etc. should be interpreted similarly.

The terminology used herein is used only to describe specific embodiments, and is not intended to limit the present invention. The singular expression includes the plural expression unless the context clearly dictates otherwise. In this specification, terms such as "comprise" or "have" are intended to designate that the described feature, number, step, operation, component, part, or combination thereof exists, and includes one or more other features or numbers, It should be understood that the possibility of the presence or addition of steps, operations, components, parts or combinations thereof is not precluded in advance.

Unless defined otherwise, all terms used herein, including technical or scientific terms, have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this invention belongs. Terms such as those defined in a commonly used dictionary should be interpreted as having a meaning consistent with the meaning in the context of the related art, and should not be interpreted in an ideal or excessively formal meaning unless explicitly defined in the present specification. does not

Hereinafter, embodiments will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. However, the scope of the patent application is not limited or limited by these examples. Like reference numerals in each figure indicate like elements.

1 is a diagram illustrating a social hydrology system that supports decision-making of a water resource-related policy according to an embodiment of the present invention.

1 illustrates the components of a social hydrology system supporting decision-making of a water resource-related policy according to an embodiment of the present invention. Hereinafter, for convenience of explanation, a social hydrological system that supports decision-making on water resources-related policies will be described as a social hydrological system.

Referring to FIG. 1 , the social hydrology system 100 according to an embodiment of the present invention includes a causal relationship analysis module 110 , a social hydrology module 120 , a hydrology module 120 , and a decision support module 130 . includes

According to an embodiment of the present invention, the causal relationship analysis module 120 classifies the background data collected in the data collection module 110 into sociology field elements and hydrology field elements, and classifies the classified elements with the sociology field elements. A causal map can be generated by analyzing the causal relationship between elements in the hydrology field.

For example, the background data may include at least one of precipitation, watershed area, watershed runoff coefficient, population, gross regional domestic product (GRDP), land use, or water demand.

In addition, the background data may include initial data such as the initial population of the target area, land use (residential land, industrial land, agricultural land), regional gross domestic product, and water demand input through the input module.

As an example, the causal relationship analysis module 110 may analyze the causal relationship between the elements of the sociology field and the elements of the hydrology field with positive feedback changing in the same direction and negative feedback changing in different directions.

According to an embodiment of the present invention, the causal relationship analysis module 110 uses arrows, positive signs, and negative signs based on the analyzed causal relationship to provide positive feedback and feedback between elements in the sociology field and the elements in the hydrology field. It is possible to create a causal map representing negative feedback.

As an example, the causal relationship analysis module 110 analyzes at least two or more of urban land, industrial land, agricultural land, gross regional domestic product (GRDP), natural disaster damage, flooded area, water supply safety rate, or population in sociology. It is classified into field factors, and at least two or more of industrial water demand, dam storage, precipitation, inflow, agricultural water demand, outflow, and domestic water demand can be classified as hydrology field factors.

According to an embodiment of the present invention, the social hydrology module 120 performs sociological field changes of elements in the sociology field and changes in the hydrology field of elements in the hydrology field based on the socioeconomic scenario and climate change scenario and the generated causal map. It is possible to predict the related sociology/hydraulic field changes, and calculate the water demand according to the predicted sociology/hydraulic field changes and the generated causal map.

In addition, the social hydrology module 120 may calculate the watershed inflow according to the predicted sociology/hydraulic field changes and the generated causal map, and calculate the discharge amount of the multi-purpose dam based on the calculated water demand.

As an example, the social hydrology module 120 provides a socio-economic scenario including a birth rate, an economic output per industrial site area, and a water demand for living, and occurrence of localized heavy rain, a long-term drought, a decrease in the amount of snow, a change in the time of snowmelt, abnormal temperature or Assuming the above climate change scenario including at least one of a single flood, the population, gross regional product, water supply safety factor, flood damage amount, residential land, agricultural land, industrial land according to the assumed socioeconomic scenario and the assumed climate change scenario and changes in the field of sociology including at least two or more of the flooded area and changes in the hydrology field including at least two or more of dam storage, inflow, outflow, domestic water demand, agricultural water demand, industrial water demand, and water shortage. can

According to an embodiment of the present invention, the social hydrology module 120 considers birth, death, industrial land, residential land, gross regional product, and the moving-out population due to natural disasters with respect to the population with changes in the field of hydrology, Consideration of damage caused by population, industrial land, agricultural land, and natural disasters with respect to the gross regional product, residential water, industrial water, agricultural water, river maintenance water, and available water supply for the water supply safety factor, and the flood damage amount Considering the maximum runoff volume during the flood period, the sum of the flood season runoff, and the inundated area, considering the population, regional gross domestic product, industrial and agricultural land for residential land, and gross regional product, residential land, industrial land and flooded area for agricultural land The changes in the sociology field can be predicted by considering the sum of the flood period maximum runoff and flood period runoff for the flooded area.

For example, the social hydrology module 120 selects at least two or more of population, regional gross domestic product, water supply safety factor, flood damage amount, residential land, agricultural land, industrial land, and flooded area according to the socio-economic scenario and the climate change scenario. In predicting the included sociology field changes, positive feedback and negative feedback between sociology field elements and hydrology field elements can be considered based on the causal map.

According to an embodiment of the present invention, the social hydrology module 120 considers the inflow, the outflow, the limited storage, the minimum storage, the evaporation and the minimum outflow with respect to the dam storage along with the predicted sociological field changes, and with respect to the inflow Considering precipitation, runoff coefficient and watershed area, considering inflow, water storage, limited storage, minimum storage, minimum runoff and evaporation, and considering water supply population, water supply supply rate and per capita water consumption for living water demand. In the field of hydrology, considering agricultural land and raw units per agricultural land for agricultural water demand, industrial land and raw units per site area for industrial water demand, and total water demand and available water supply for water shortage Changes can be predicted.

As an example, the social hydrology module 120 includes at least two or more of dam storage, inflow, outflow, living water demand, agricultural water demand, industrial water demand, and water shortage according to socioeconomic scenarios and climate change scenarios. In predicting field changes, positive feedback and negative feedback between elements in the sociology field and the elements in the hydrology field may be considered based on the causal map.

According to an embodiment of the present invention, the decision support module 130 provides the safety level of completion and the number of societies according to the water demand calculated by the social hydrology module 120 and the watershed inflow calculated by the social hydrology module 120 . It is possible to evaluate the water level safety according to the discharge amount calculated by the literature module 120, and support the decision-making of water resources-related policies according to the evaluated water safety level and the evaluated water level safety level.

As an example, the decision support module 130 calculates the flood damage area and damage amount and water supply safety level based on the evaluated water safety level and the evaluated dimensional safety level, and calculates the calculated flood damage area and damage amount and water supply safety level. While feeding back the phosphorus value, it is possible to induce additional changes in previously predicted changes in the sociology field by reflecting the calculated flood damage area, the calculated damage amount, and the calculated water supply safety level to the social hydrology module 120 .

That is, the present invention can provide a model for analyzing the effects of multi-purpose dams on population increase, flood damage prevention, water supply, economic growth, etc. in the target watershed.

In addition, the present invention can provide an evaluation model that can understand the complex interconnection process between humanities and sociological factors and water resource factors, and simultaneously consider the effects of precipitation, climate change, population, land use, and the like.

In addition, the present invention analyzes the dynamic change of the target area by interconnecting and analyzing the elements of the sociology field related to the construction of water resource structures and the elements of the hydrology field, and predicts the future of the target area through climate change and socio-economic scenarios, Based on the predicted future, socio-economic impact assessment and alternatives are prepared, and water resources-related policies that can be used as a policy and decision-making tool for quantitative analysis in the socio-hydrological aspect of the target area due to the construction of multi-purpose dams and designing water resources-related structures It can provide a social hydrology system that supports decision-making in

2 is a view for explaining a social hydrology module according to an embodiment of the present invention.

2 illustrates the components of a social hydrology module according to an embodiment of the present invention.

2, the social hydrology module 200 according to an embodiment of the present invention includes a population change module 210, an economic evaluation module 220, a land use module 230, an inflow calculation module 240, It includes a dam water balance analysis module 250 and a dam operation determination module 260 .

The social hydrology module 200 according to an embodiment of the present invention is the basic data of the target area where the multi-purpose dam will be built, such as the initial population, land use, gross regional product, water demand, precipitation, watershed area, watershed runoff coefficient, etc. Using data, assuming social change scenarios such as changes in the birth rate, economic output per industrial site area, or per capita domestic water demand, inflow into the watershed, limited storage corresponding to dam operating conditions, and minimum according to the assumptions of the climate change scenario It is possible to calculate the discharge amount, calculate the change in population and regional gross domestic product of the target area, and perform water balance analysis in consideration of water demand and inflow and dam operating conditions.

For example, the population change module 210 may calculate the population change rate in consideration of birth, death, industrial land, residential land, regional gross domestic product, and the moving-out population due to natural disasters with respect to the population.

That is, the population change module 210 may calculate the population change rate in consideration of the positive and negative feedbacks between the elements of the sociology field related to the population and the elements of the hydrology field.

According to an embodiment of the present invention, the economic evaluation module 220 uses the population change rate calculated by the population change module 210 and the land use change rate calculated by the land use module 230 in the target area where the multi-purpose dam will be built. It is possible to estimate the change in the gross regional product of

That is, the economic evaluation module 220 may calculate the change in the gross regional product in consideration of the positive and negative feedbacks between the elements of the sociology field and the elements of the hydrology field related to the gross regional product.

For example, the land use module 230 may calculate the land use change rate in consideration of changes in residential land, agricultural land, and industrial land.

That is, the land use module 230 may calculate the land use change rate in consideration of the positive and negative feedbacks between the elements of the sociology field and the elements of the hydrology field related to residential land, agricultural land, and industrial land.

For example, the inflow calculation module 240 may calculate the inflow in consideration of the amount of precipitation, the outflow coefficient, and the watershed area for the target area.

That is, the inflow calculation module 240 may calculate the inflow in consideration of positive feedback and negative feedback between hydrology field factors such as precipitation amount, runoff coefficient, and watershed area and related sociology field factors.

According to an embodiment of the present invention, the water balance analysis module 250 may calculate the amount of runoff for the target area based on the operating conditions and the water balance equation determined by the dam operation determination module 260 . Here, the amount of runoff may be related to the amount of water flowing out from the multipurpose dam.

As an example, the dam operation determination module 260 is based on the inflow calculated by the inflow calculation module 240 and the water demand calculated by the sociology module. Operation of a multi-purpose dam including limited storage, minimum storage, evaporation and minimum outflow. conditions can be determined.

That is, the dam operation determination module 260 considers the positive feedback and negative feedback between the quantitative values calculated by the inflow calculation module 240 and the quantitative values calculated by the sociology module, the limited storage amount, the minimum water storage amount, and the evaporation amount. And it is possible to determine the operating conditions of the multi-purpose dam, such as the minimum runoff.

3 is a diagram for explaining a causal map according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Referring to FIG. 3 , the causal map 300 may include sociology field elements 310 and hydrology field elements 320 .

According to an embodiment of the present invention, the causal map 300 may represent a causal relationship between the elements of the sociology field 310 and the elements of the hydrology field 320 .

Looking at the causal map 300 , changes in population and land use such as residential land, industrial land, and agricultural land may affect water demand for living, industrial, and agricultural water.

Since the amount of water withdrawn from a dam is determined according to various water demand, changes in water demand can again affect the amount of water withdrawn from the dam, and an increase in population can cause an increase in the demand for water for living and urban land (residential, commercial, and industrial land). can

An increase in urban land increases the demand for drinking and public water, but development within a limited land can lead to a decrease in agricultural land, which can reduce the demand for agricultural water.

An increase in industrial land and a decrease in agricultural land are related to the amount of production per unit area, which can affect the gross regional product, which in turn affects the increase or decrease of urban and agricultural land. If the economic value of the region rises, it can also be an opportunity to bring in the population.

In addition, since the amount of precipitation affects the inflow and outflow of the dam, if there is a lot of precipitation, the amount of inflow into the dam and the amount of discharge from the dam may increase. Therefore, it is necessary to use the water stored in the dam, which may again affect the amount of storage and discharge of the dam.

In particular, prior to the flood season between June and September, the dam must reserve a space for flood control in advance, and the storage and discharge volume for sufficient water supply must be controlled during normal times.

Therefore, it can be related to the operation and management of dams by dividing the year into a flood and a non-flood season, controlling the water level of the dam to secure a storage amount, and determining the discharge amount for a stable water supply.

In addition, a large amount of discharge generated during the flood season can cause flood damage, which is directly related to crop damage and can affect agricultural production and regional gross domestic product.

In addition, the shortage of available water resources during the dry season affects agricultural production due to drought, and similarly causes a decrease in the gross regional product, and changes in the gross regional product affect the local economy, and these effects affect the population inflow of the region. and transfer may be affected.

Based on this causal relationship, the relational expression between the elements of each system can be calculated, and in the process of estimating the relational expression, the statistical data of the relevant area in the past can be utilized.

4A to 4C are diagrams for explaining a linkage analysis based on a causal relationship analysis of a social hydrology module according to an embodiment of the present invention.

4A illustrates the elements of the sociology field to be used for predicting changes in the field of sociology by the social hydrology module and the elements of the field of hydrology to be used for predicting changes in the field of hydrology.

Referring to FIG. 4A , the social hydrology module includes a sociology module 400 and a hydrology module, and the sociology module 400 and the hydrology module 410 may interact with each other.

According to an embodiment of the present invention, the sociology module 400 predicts changes in population, regional gross domestic product, water supply safety factor, flood damage amount, residential land, industrial land, agricultural land, and flooded area as elements of the sociology field. can do.

For example, the population can be taken into account by birth, death, industrial land, residential land, gross regional product, and population moving out due to natural disasters. Gross regional product is the amount of damage caused by population, industrial land, agricultural land, and natural disasters. can be considered.

In addition, the water supply safety factor can consider water for living, supply water, agricultural water, river maintenance water, and available water supply, and the flood damage amount can be considered the maximum amount of runoff during the flood period, the sum of the amount of runoff during the flood period, and the flooded area.

In addition, the residential land may consider population, regional gross domestic product, industrial land, and agricultural land, industrial land may consider population, regional gross domestic product, agricultural land, and agricultural land, and agricultural land may consider gross regional product, industrial land, and industrial land. The land and flooded area may be considered, and the flooded area may be considered as the sum of the flood period maximum runoff and flood season runoff.

According to an embodiment of the present invention, the hydrology module 400 predicts changes in dam storage, inflow, outflow, living water demand, agricultural water demand, industrial water demand, and water shortage as elements in the field of hydrology. can

For example, as for the amount of water stored in the dam, inflow, outflow, limited storage, minimum storage, evaporation, and minimum outflow may be considered, and inflow may include precipitation, outflow coefficient, and watershed area, and outflow may be inflow, stored water, limited storage. , minimum water storage, minimum runoff and evaporation can be considered.

In addition, the water demand for living water can take into account the water supply population, water supply rate, and per capita water consumption, the agricultural water demand can be considered in agricultural land and per unit of agricultural land, and the industrial water demand is per industrial site and per unit of land area. can be taken into account, and for the water shortage, the total water demand and the available water supply can be considered.

4B illustrates a first associative process 420 associated with constructing predicting changes to be predicted in the hydrology module using changes predicted in the sociology module.

Referring to FIG. 4B , the first linking process 420 may be divided into sociology field elements 421 and hydrology field elements 422 , and sociology field elements 421 and hydrology field elements ( 422) can also be calculated.

According to an embodiment of the present invention, the first linking process 420 is linked to calculate the demand for living water, which is an element of the hydrology field, by calculating the water supply supply rate and per capita water usage as the sociology module predicts the change of the population. includes the process of

In addition, the first linkage process 420 includes a linkage process of calculating the basic unit per agricultural land as the sociology module predicts changes in agricultural land, and calculating the agricultural water demand based on the agricultural land unit unit in the hydrology module. can

In addition, the first linkage process 420 includes a linkage process of calculating the basic unit per site area as the sociology module predicts the change of industrial land, and calculating the industrial water demand based on the basic unit per site area in the hydrology module. can

Also, the first linkage process 420 may include a process in which the hydrology module calculates the total water demand by synthesizing the demand for water for living, the demand for agricultural water, and the demand for industrial water.

4C illustrates a second associative process 430 associated with constructing predicting changes to be predicted in the sociology module using changes predicted in the hydrology module.

Referring to FIG. 4C , the second linking process 430 may be divided into sociology field elements 431 and hydrology field elements 432 , and sociology field elements 431 and hydrology field elements ( 431 ). 432) can also be calculated.

According to an embodiment of the present invention, in the second linkage process 430, the hydrology module predicts changes related to inflow, outflow, dam storage, and total water demand, etc., and based on the changes in the predicted hydrology field elements, Includes processes for estimating changes in factors in the field of sociology.

The second linkage process 430 includes a process of estimating the water shortage based on the inflow predicted by the hydrology module, and predicting the change in the regional gross domestic product based on the calculated water shortage and agricultural land.

In addition, the second linkage process 430 includes a process of calculating a water supply safety factor according to the dam storage amount, runoff amount, total water demand and available water supply amount predicted by the hydrology module.

In addition, the second linkage process 430 includes a process of predicting a change in the flooded area based on the sum of the flood season maximum runoff and the flood season runoff calculated based on the runoff predicted by the hydrology module.

In addition, the second linkage process 430 includes a process of calculating the flood damage amount based on the sum of the maximum flood period and flood season runoff calculated based on the estimated runoff amount from the hydrology module.

5 is a view for explaining an operation method of a social hydrology system supporting decision-making of a water resource-related policy according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Specifically, FIG. 5 exemplifies a procedure in which a method of operating a social hydrology system supporting decision making of a water resource-related policy supports decision-making of a water resource-related policy according to an embodiment of the present invention. Hereinafter, in FIGS. 5 to 7 , for convenience of explanation, an operation method of the social hydrology system that supports decision making of a water resource-related policy is described as an operation method of the social hydrology system.

Referring to FIG. 5 , in the operation method of the social hydrological system in step S501, the background data of the target area to which the water resource-related policy according to the construction of the multi-purpose dam will be applied is classified into sociology field elements and hydrology field elements, and the classified elements Create a causal map showing the causal relationship between the two.

In other words, the operation method of the social hydrology system classifies background data into elements in the sociology field and the elements in the hydrology field, and generates a causal map by analyzing the causal relationship between the classified elements in the sociology field and the classified elements in the hydrology field. can do.

The operation method of the social hydrological system in step S502 is to calculate the water demand and watershed inflow according to the prediction of changes in the sociology/hydrology field based on the socioeconomic scenario, the climate change scenario, and the causal map, and the discharge amount of the multi-purpose dam based on the water capacity to calculate

That is, the operation method of the social hydrological system is based on the socioeconomic scenario and climate change scenario and the causal map generated in step S501, in which changes in the field of sociology of elements in the field of sociology and changes in the field of hydrology of elements in the field of hydrology are linked. Predict sociology/hydraulic field changes, estimate water demand according to predicted sociology/hydraulic field changes and causal map, estimate watershed inflow according to predicted sociology/hydraulic field change and causal map, Based on the water demand, the discharge amount of the multi-purpose dam can be calculated.

In step S503, the operation method of the social hydrological system can support decision-making of water resources-related policies by evaluating the safety level of flooding according to the water capacity and the inflow of the watershed and the level of safety of flooding according to the discharge amount.

In other words, the operation method of the social hydrological system evaluates the ripple safety according to the calculated water demand and the calculated watershed inflow in step S502 and the ripple safety according to the calculated discharge, and is based on the evaluated ripple safety and the evaluated ripple safety. Accordingly, it can support decision-making of water resources-related policies.

Therefore, the present invention has a characteristic of two-way evolution, not one-way, considering the elements of the sociology field and the hydrology field related to the construction of water resource structures at the same time, and dynamically analyzes the interrelationship between the sociology field and the hydrology field to apply the water resources-related policy. It can provide decision-making tools for

6 is a view for explaining an operation method of a social hydrology system supporting decision-making of a water resource-related policy according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Specifically, FIG. 6 exemplifies a procedure for performing a simulation for decision-making of a water resource-related policy, and establishing a response strategy according to the performed simulation, in the operation method of the social hydrological system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Referring to FIG. 6 , in the operation method of the social hydrology system in step S601 , background data is classified into sociological data and hydrology data, and a causal relationship is analyzed for formula calculation.

In other words, the operation method of the social hydrology system classifies background data into sociology field elements and hydrology field elements, and generates a causal map by analyzing the causal relationship between the classified sociology field elements and the classified hydrology field elements. and the generated causal map can be used for formula calculation.

The operation method of the social hydrology system in step S602 calculates a formula for building a model of the social hydrology system.

That is, the operation method of the social hydrology system can be calculated as the following equations 1 to 14 for the model construction of the social hydrology system.

Equation 1, which represents the total population and is calculated by accumulating the annual population increase and decrease in the number of the population, is as follows.

[Equation 1]

은

연도의 총인구수를 나타낼 수 있고,

는 모의 기간 첫 해를 나타낼 수 있으며,

는 모의 기간 첫 해의 초기 인구수를 나타낼 수 있고,

는

해에서의 순인구증감량을 나타낼 수 있다.In Equation 1 above,

silver

can represent the total number of people in the year,

may represent the first year of the mock period,

may represent the initial population in the first year of the simulation period,

is

It can represent the net population growth/decrease in the year.

Equation 2 representing the increase/decrease in the population calculated by accumulating the amount of population change is as follows.

[Equation 2]

는

년도의 출생 인구,

는 사망 인구로 출생과 사망으로 인한 인구 자체증감을 산정하고,

는

년도의 공업용지 변화량

,

공업용지 변동으로 인한 인구변화율

을 나타낼 수 있고,

은 주거용지의 변화량

,

주거용지 변동으로 인한 인구변화율

을 나타낼 수 있으며,

는 해당지역의 지역내총생산 변화량

을,

은 지역내총생산 변동에 따른 인구변화율

을 나타낼 수 있다.In Equation 2 above,

is

Birth population in the year,

is the death population, which calculates the increase or decrease of the population due to births and deaths,

is

Changes in industrial land in the year

,

Population change rate due to changes in industrial land

can represent,

is the amount of change in residential land

,

Population change rate due to changes in residential areas

can represent,

is the change in regional gross domestic product

of,

is the rate of population change according to changes in regional gross domestic product

can represent

The land use was divided into residential land, industrial land and agricultural land. In the case of residential land, it is affected by changes in population, regional gross domestic product, industrial land, and agricultural land, and can be calculated as shown in Equation 3 below.

[Equation 3]

는

해의 주거용지면적

,

은 모의기간 첫 해의 주거용지면적을 나타낼 수 있고,

는

해의 인구 변화량

,

는 인구 변동에 의한 주거용지 변화율

을 나타낼 수 있으며,

는 해당지역의 지역내총생산 변화량

,

은 지역내총생산 변동에 의한 주거용지의 변화율

을 나타낼 수 있고,

는 농업용지 변화량

,

은 농업용지 변동에 의한 주거용지의 변화율

을 나타낼 수 있으며,

는 공업용지 변화량

,

는 공업용지 변동에 의한 주거용지의 변화율

을 나타낼 수 있다.In Equation 3 above,

is

Residential area of the sea

,

can represent the residential area in the first year of the simulation period,

is

year's population change

,

is the rate of change in residential area due to population change

can represent,

is the change in regional gross domestic product

,

is the rate of change in residential land due to changes in regional gross domestic product

can represent,

is the amount of change in agricultural land

,

is the rate of change of residential land due to changes in agricultural land

can represent,

is the amount of change in industrial land

,

is the rate of change in residential land due to changes in industrial land

can represent

Industrial land is affected by population, regional gross domestic product, residential land, and agricultural land, and can be calculated as in Equation 4 below.

[Equation 4]

는

해의 공업용지 면적

,

는 모의기간 첫 해의 초기 공업용지 면적

을 나타낼 수 있고,

는 인구 변화량

,

는 인구변동에 의한 공업용지의 변화율

을 나타낼 수 있으며,

는 해당지역의 지역내총생산 변화량

,

는 지역내총생산 변동에 의한 공업지역의 변화율

을 나타낼 수 있고,

는 농업용지 변화량

,

는 농업용지 변동에 의한 공업지역의 변화율

을 나타낼 수 있으며,

은 주거용지 변화량

,

은 주거지역 변동에 의한 공업용지의 변화율

을 나타낼 수 있다.In Equation 4,

is

area of industrial land in the sea

,

is the initial area of industrial land in the first year of the simulation period

can represent,

is the population change

,

is the rate of change of industrial land due to population change

can represent,

is the change in regional gross domestic product

,

is the rate of change in the industrial area due to changes in the gross regional product

can represent,

is the amount of change in agricultural land

,

is the rate of change in the industrial area due to changes in agricultural land

can represent,

is the amount of change in residential land

,

is the rate of change of industrial land due to change in residential area

can represent

Agricultural land is affected by gross regional product, industrial and residential land, and flooded area due to flood damage, and can be calculated as in Equation 5 below.

[Equation 5]

은

해의 농업용지 면적

,

는 모의기간 첫 해의 초기 농업용지 면적

을 나타낼 수 있고,

는 지역내총생산 변화량

,

는 지역내총생산 변동에 의한 농업용지의 변화율

을 나타낼 수 있으며,

는 공업용지 변화량

,

는 공업용지 변동에 의한 농업용지의 변화율

을 나타낼 수 있고,

는 주거용지 변화량

,

은 주거용지 변동에 의한 농업용지의 변화율

을 나타낼 수 있다.In Equation 5,

silver

Agricultural land area in the sea

,

is the initial agricultural land area in the first year of the simulation period

can represent,

is the change in gross regional product

,

is the rate of change in agricultural land due to changes in regional gross domestic product

can represent,

is the amount of change in industrial land

,

is the rate of change in agricultural land due to changes in industrial land

can represent,

is the amount of change in residential land

,

is the rate of change in agricultural land due to changes in residential land

can represent

As the flooded area due to flood damage, the flooded area at the time of a flood may be related to Equation 6 below.

[Equation 6]

는

해에서의 침수면적

을 나타낼 수 있고,

는 각각 유출량의 합 및 유출량의 최댓값에 따른 침수면적을 산정하는 매개변수를 나타낼 수 있다.In Equation 6,

is

submerged area in the sea

can represent,

may represent parameters for calculating the flooded area according to the sum of the runoff and the maximum value of the runoff, respectively.

The gross regional product is affected by the population, industrial and agricultural production, and damage due to flood or drought, and can be calculated as in Equation 7 below.

[Equation 7]

는

해의 지역내총생산액

,

는 1인당 생산액

,

는 공업용지 면적당 발생하는 생산액

,

는 농업용지 면적당 발생하는 생산액

을 나타낼 수 있고,

은

해의 용수부족량

,

는 농업용지 당 필요한 농업용수 원단위

를 나타낼 수 있으며,

는 홍수로 인한 농작물 피해액

을 나타낼 수 있다.In Equation 7,

is

gross regional product for the year

,

is the per capita output

,

is the amount of production per industrial site area

,

is the amount of production per agricultural land area

can represent,

silver

year's water shortage

,

is the basic unit of agricultural water required per agricultural land

can represent,

is the amount of damage to crops due to flooding.

can represent

The amount of damage to crops due to the flood may be calculated using Equation 8 below.

[Equation 8]

는 홍수로 인한 농작물 피해액

을 나타내고,

는 각각 유출량의 합 및 유출량의 최댓값, 그리고 침수면적에 따른 피해액을 산정하는 매개변수를 나타낼 수 있다.In Equation 8,

is the amount of damage to crops due to flooding.

represents,

can represent parameters for calculating the sum of runoff, the maximum value of runoff, and the amount of damage according to the flooded area, respectively.

The water supply safety factor can be calculated using Equation 9 below as the ratio of the available water supply to the total water demand.

[Equation 9]

는

해에서의 용수공급안전율을 나타낼 수 있고,

는 총 용수수요량

을 나타낼 수 있으며,

는

해에서의 용수 공급가능량을 나타낼 수 있다.In Equation 9,

is

It can represent the safety factor of water supply in the sea,

is the total water demand

can represent,

is

It can represent the amount of water available in the sea.

The water shortage in a specific year can be calculated using Equation 10 below.

[Equation 10]

는

해에서의 용수부족량

을 나타내고,

는 총 용수수요량

을 나타낼 수 있고,

는

해에서의 용수 공급가능량을 나타낼 수 있다.In Equation 10,

is

water shortage in the sea

represents,

is the total water demand

can represent,

is

It can represent the amount of water available in the sea.

The dam inflow can be calculated based on the following Equation 11 through the monthly precipitation, the dam basin area, and the outflow coefficient.

[Equation 11]

은

월의 유입량

을 나타낼 수 있고,

은 해당 월의 강수량

을 나타낼 수 있으며,

는 대상 유역면적(

)을 나타낼 수 있고,

는 유출계수를 나타낼 수 있다. In Equation 11,

silver

monthly inflow

can represent,

is the amount of precipitation for the month

can represent,

is the target watershed area (

) can represent

can represent the runoff coefficient.

Equation 12 shows the water balance equation.

[Equation 12]

은 물수지방정식에 의해 산정된

월의 저수량

을 나타낼 수 있고,

은

월의 저수량

을 나타낼 수 있으며,

은

월의 증발량

,

은 해당 월의 방류량

을 나타낼 수 있다. In Equation 12,

is calculated by the water balance equation

low water in the month

can represent,

silver

low water in the month

can represent,

silver

evaporation of the month

,

is the amount of discharge for the month

can represent

Equation 13 is a case in which water exceeding the limited storage amount is introduced, and it can be calculated as in Equation 13.

[Equation 13]

은

월의 제한저수량

을 나타낼 수 있고,

은 해당 월의 최소방류량

을 나타낼 수 있다.In Equation 13,

silver

Monthly water limit

can represent,

is the minimum discharge for the month

can represent

Equation 14 is a case in which water less than the limited storage amount is introduced, and it can be calculated as in Equation 14.

[Equation 14]

은

월의 제한저수량

을 나타낼 수 있고,

은 해당 월의 최소방류량

을 나타낼 수 있다.In Equation 14,

silver

Monthly water limit

can represent,

is the minimum discharge for the month

can represent

In the operation method of the social hydrological system in step S603, the simulation is performed by determining the simulation period of the model of the social hydrological system, the climate change scenario, and the socioeconomic scenario.

That is, the operation method of the social hydrological system can assume the simulation period using the social hydrological system, the climate change scenario and the socioeconomic scenario that affect the elements of the sociology field and the elements of the hydrology field.

The operation method of the social hydrological system in step S604 establishes a strategy for responding to changes in the target area according to the simulation.

That is, the operation method of the social hydrological system can support the establishment of a strategy for determining whether to construct a multi-purpose dam or to determine the operating conditions of the multi-purpose dam based on the quantitative values calculated according to the simulation.

Therefore, the present invention quantitatively analyzes the humanities, sociological and hydrological changes due to multipurpose dams by generating a causal map for causal relationship analysis that considers the nature of two-way rather than one-way evolution by simultaneously considering the elements of the field of sociology and the field of hydrology can be analyzed as

7 is a view for explaining an operation method of a social hydrology system supporting decision-making of a water resource-related policy according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Specifically, FIG. 7 exemplifies a procedure in which the operation method of the social hydrology system according to an embodiment of the present invention performs the linked analysis simulation within the social hydrology module.

Referring to FIG. 7 , the operation method of the social hydrological system in step S701 predicts changes in the birth rate, economic output, and domestic water capacity according to the social change scenario, and calculates the inflow in the watershed based on the precipitation data according to the climate change scenario. do.

In other words, the operation method of the social hydrological system assumes a social change scenario and assumes changes in the birth rate, economic output, and living water capacity accordingly, and is based on data such as variable precipitation, watershed area, and watershed runoff coefficient according to climate change scenarios. In this way, the inflow into the watershed can be calculated.

In step S702, the operation method of the social hydrological system calculates the change in population and regional gross domestic product, and sets the operating conditions of the multi-purpose dam.

In other words, the operation method of the social hydrological system is based on the population and region according to the birth rate related to the death and birth of the population, the economic output related to the land area, and the change in the living water capacity related to the population, water supply rate, and per capita water consumption. It is possible to set operating conditions for multi-purpose dams such as limited storage and minimum discharge by calculating the change in gross domestic product and considering the calculated inflow and the calculated water demand through the sociology module.

In the operation method of the social hydrology system in step S703, the amount of change calculated in step S702 is analyzed in connection with social field elements and simulation is performed, and water balance analysis based on the calculated inflow and the water demand calculated in the sociology module simulation can be performed.

In other words, the operation method of the social hydrological system is based on the change in population and regional gross domestic product calculated in step S702, while performing a simulation to calculate the total water demand according to the water demand for living, the water demand for agriculture, and the demand for industrial use. According to the operating conditions of the dam, it is possible to calculate the amount of runoff of the multi-purpose dam based on the water balance equation, and perform a water balance analysis simulation according to the calculated runoff.

8A to 9C are diagrams illustrating simulation results of a social hydrology system supporting decision-making of a water resource-related policy according to an embodiment of the present invention.

8A and 8B illustrate simulation verification results of the social hydrology system.

Referring to the graph 800 of FIG. 8A , statistical values and simulated values according to year-by-year population changes are shown before and after the multi-purpose dam construction (after dam construction). prepare for

According to the contrast result of the graph 800, it can be confirmed that the statistical data and the simulation data show similar changes.

Referring to the graph 810 of FIG. 8B , statistical values and simulated values according to the change of the flooded area by year are obtained before and after the multi-purpose dam construction (after dam construction). ) to prepare

According to the contrast result of the graph 810, it can be confirmed that the statistical data and the simulation data show similar changes.

9A to 9C illustrate simulation results according to a case in which a scenario is applied in performing a simulation of a social hydrology system.

Referring to the graph 900 of FIG. 9A , a simulation result for a population that varies according to the presence or absence of a dam (DAM) according to a population change by year is shown.

Comparing the graph 900 before the multi-purpose dam construction (before dam construction) and after the multi-purpose dam construction (after dam construction), the simulation result shows a significantly increased population after the multi-purpose dam construction.

Referring to the graph 910 of FIG. 9B , simulation results for Gross regional domestic product (GRDP) that vary depending on the presence or absence of a dam (DAM) according to the population change by year are shown.

In the graph 910, when the before dam construction and after the multi-purpose dam construction are compared, the gross regional domestic product (GRDP) significantly increases after the multi-purpose dam construction. .

Referring to the graph 920 of FIG. 9C , simulation results for changes in the flooding area that vary depending on the presence or absence of a dam (DAM) according to the annual rainfall for each year are shown.

In the graph 920, when the multi-purpose dam construction before (before dam construction) and the multi-purpose dam construction (after dam construction) are compared, the simulation result shows that the flooding area is significantly reduced after the multi-purpose dam construction.

Therefore, the present invention analyzes the dynamic change of the target area by interrelated analysis of the elements of the sociology field related to the construction of water resource structures and the elements of the hydrology field, and predicts the future of the target area through the use of climate change and socio-economic scenarios, Based on the predicted future, socio-economic impact assessment and alternatives are prepared, and water resources-related policies that can be used as a policy and decision-making tool for quantitative analysis in the socio-hydrological aspect of the target area due to the construction of multi-purpose dams and design of water resources-related structures It can provide a social hydrology system to support decision-making in

The device described above may be implemented as a hardware component, a software component, and/or a combination of the hardware component and the software component. For example, devices and components described in the embodiments may include, for example, a processor, a controller, an arithmetic logic unit (ALU), a digital signal processor, a microcomputer, a field programmable array (FPA), It may be implemented using one or more general purpose or special purpose computers, such as a programmable logic unit (PLU), microprocessor, or any other device capable of executing and responding to instructions. The processing device may execute an operating system (OS) and one or more software applications running on the operating system. The processing device may also access, store, manipulate, process, and generate data in response to execution of the software. For convenience of understanding, although one processing device is sometimes described as being used, one of ordinary skill in the art will recognize that the processing device includes a plurality of processing elements and/or a plurality of types of processing elements. It can be seen that can include For example, the processing device may include a plurality of processors or one processor and one controller. Other processing configurations are also possible, such as parallel processors.

The method according to the embodiment may be implemented in the form of program instructions that can be executed through various computer means and recorded in a computer-readable medium. The computer-readable medium may include program instructions, data files, data structures, etc. alone or in combination. The program instructions recorded on the medium may be specially designed and configured for the embodiment, or may be known and available to those skilled in the art of computer software. Examples of the computer-readable recording medium include magnetic media such as hard disks, floppy disks and magnetic tapes, optical media such as CD-ROMs and DVDs, and magnetic such as floppy disks. - includes magneto-optical media, and hardware devices specially configured to store and execute program instructions, such as ROM, RAM, flash memory, and the like. Examples of program instructions include not only machine language codes such as those generated by a compiler, but also high-level language codes that can be executed by a computer using an interpreter or the like. The hardware devices described above may be configured to operate as one or more software modules to perform the operations of the embodiments, and vice versa.

The software may comprise a computer program, code, instructions, or a combination of one or more thereof, which configures a processing device to operate as desired or is independently or collectively processed You can command the device. The software and/or data may be any kind of machine, component, physical device, virtual equipment, computer storage medium or device, to be interpreted by or to provide instructions or data to the processing device. , or may be permanently or temporarily embody in a transmitted signal wave. The software may be distributed over networked computer systems, and stored or executed in a distributed manner. Software and data may be stored in one or more computer-readable recording media.

As described above, although the embodiments have been described with reference to the limited drawings, various modifications and variations are possible by those skilled in the art from the above description. For example, the described techniques are performed in a different order than the described method, and/or the described components of the system, structure, apparatus, circuit, etc. are combined or combined in a different form than the described method, or other components Or substituted or substituted by equivalents may achieve an appropriate result.

Therefore, other implementations, other embodiments, and equivalents to the claims are also within the scope of the following claims.

100: social hydrology system 110: causal relationship analysis module
120: social hydrology module 130: decision support module

Claims (8)

The background data of the target area to which the water resource-related policy according to the construction of the multi-purpose dam will be applied is classified into sociology field elements and hydrology field elements, and the causal relationship between the classified elements of the sociology field and the classified elements of the hydrology field is analyzed. a causal relationship analysis module to generate a causal map;
Based on the socioeconomic scenario and climate change scenario and the generated causal map, changes in the sociology/hydrology field in which the sociology field changes of the classified elements of the sociology field and the hydrology field changes of the classified elements of the hydrology field are linked Predict, calculate the water demand according to the predicted sociology/hydraulic field changes and the generated causal map, and calculate the watershed inflow according to the predicted sociology/hydraulic field changes and the generated causal map, , a social hydrology module for calculating the discharge amount of the multi-purpose dam based on the calculated water demand; and
Evaluate the safety of flooding according to the calculated water demand and the calculated watershed inflow and the safety of flooding according to the calculated discharge, and support decision-making on water resources-related policies according to the evaluated safety of flooding and the evaluated level of safety. which includes a decision support module to
A social hydrological system that supports decision-making on water resources-related policies. According to claim 1,
The causal relationship analysis module includes at least two or more of urban land, industrial land, agricultural land, gross regional domestic product (GRDP), natural disaster damage, flooded area, water supply safety rate, or population as the elements of the sociology field and classify at least two or more of industrial water demand, dam storage, precipitation, inflow, agricultural water demand, outflow and domestic water demand into the hydrology field factors, and the sociology field elements and the hydrology field elements Analyze the causal relationship with positive feedback changing in the same direction and negative feedback changing in different directions, and using arrows, positive signs, and negative signs based on the analyzed causal relationship generating the causal map representing the positive feedback and the negative feedback between discipline elements and the hydrology discipline elements.
A social hydrological system that supports decision-making on water resources-related policies. According to claim 1,
The socio-hydraulic module includes the socio-economic scenario including the birth rate, economic output per industrial site area, and domestic water demand, and occurrence of localized heavy rain, long-term drought, reduction in snow cover, change in snowmelt period, abnormal temperature or single flood. Assuming the climate change scenario including at least one, population, regional gross domestic product, water supply safety factor, flood damage amount, residential land, agricultural land, industrial land inundation according to the assumed socioeconomic scenario and the assumed climate change scenario Predicting changes in the field of sociology including at least two of the area and changes in the field of hydrology including at least two or more of dam storage, inflow, outflow, domestic water demand, agricultural water demand, industrial water demand, and water shortage ,
Considering births, deaths, the industrial land, the residential land, the gross regional product and the population moving out due to natural disasters for the population along with the predicted hydrology sector changes, the population with respect to the gross regional product; Considering the amount of damage caused by the industrial land, the agricultural land, and natural disasters, considering the water supply safety factor for living water, industrial water, agricultural water, river maintenance water, and water supply, the maximum amount of water supply during the flood period is taken into account for the flood damage amount. Considering the sum of runoff, flood period runoff, and the flooded area, taking into account the population, the gross regional product, the industrial land and the agricultural land for the residential land, and the gross regional product and the residential land for the agricultural land , Considering the industrial site and the flooded area, and predicting the sociological field changes by considering the sum of the flood period maximum runoff and the flood season runoff with respect to the flooded area,
Considering the inflow, the outflow, the limited storage, the minimum storage, the evaporation, and the minimum outflow for the dam reservoir together with the predicted sociological field changes, and considering the precipitation, outflow coefficient and watershed area for the inflow, the Considering the inflow amount, the water storage amount, the limited storage amount, the minimum water storage amount, the minimum outflow amount and the evaporation with respect to the outflow amount, the water supply population, the water supply supply rate, and the per capita water consumption are taken into account for the domestic water demand, and the agricultural water demand amount Changes in the field of hydrology by considering agricultural land and per unit of agricultural land, industrial land and per unit of site area for the industrial water demand, and total water demand and available water supply for the water shortage predicting
A social hydrological system that supports decision-making on water resources-related policies. 4. The method of claim 3,
The social hydrology module includes a population change module, a land use module, an economic evaluation module, an inflow calculation module, a dam operation determination module and a dam water balance analysis module,
The population change module calculates the population change rate in consideration of the population moving out due to birth, death, the industrial site, the residential site, the gross regional product, and a natural disaster,
The land use module calculates a land use change rate in consideration of changes in the residential land, the agricultural land, and the industrial land,
The economic evaluation module calculates the amount of change in the gross regional product of the target area using the calculated rate of population change and the calculated rate of land use change,
The inflow calculation module calculates the inflow in consideration of the amount of precipitation, the outflow coefficient and the watershed area for the target area,
The dam operation determination module determines the operating conditions of the multi-purpose dam including a limited storage amount, a minimum water storage amount, an evaporation amount and a minimum outflow amount based on the calculated inflow amount and the calculated water demand amount,
The water balance analysis module is configured to calculate the outflow amount for the target area based on the determined operating conditions and water balance equation
A social hydrological system that supports decision-making on water resources-related policies. According to claim 1,
The decision support module calculates the flood damage area and damage amount and water supply safety level based on the evaluated water safety level and the evaluated dimensional safety level, and quantitatively measures the calculated flood damage area and damage amount and water supply safety level. Predicting changes in additional sociology fields by analyzing the predicted changes in the sociology field by reflecting the calculated flood damage area and damage amount and water supply safety level in the social hydrology module while feeding back the numerical value
A social hydrological system that supports decision-making on water resources-related policies. In the causal relationship analysis module, the background data of the target area to which the water resource-related policy according to the multi-purpose dam construction will be applied is classified into sociology field elements and hydrology field elements, and the classified sociology field elements and the classified hydrology field elements generating a causal map by analyzing a causal relationship between them;
In the socio-hydrology module, based on the socio-economic scenario and climate change scenario and the generated causal map, sociology field changes of the classified elements in the sociology field and changes in the hydrology field of the classified elements of the hydrology field are linked. / Predicts changes in the field of hydrology, calculates the water demand according to the predicted changes in the sociology / hydrology field and the generated causal map, and calculates the predicted changes in the sociology / hydrology field and the generated causal map calculating the watershed inflow and calculating the discharge of the multi-purpose dam based on the calculated water demand; and
In the decision support module, the water safety level according to the calculated water demand and the calculated watershed inflow rate and the flood water safety level according to the calculated discharge amount are evaluated, and water resources are related according to the evaluated water level safety level and the evaluated water level safety level. including steps to support policy decision-making
A method of operation of a social hydrological system that supports decision-making in water resources-related policies. 7. The method of claim 6,
The background data of the target area to which the water resource-related policy according to the multi-purpose dam construction will be applied is classified into sociology field elements and hydrology field elements, and the causal relationship between the classified elements of the sociology field and the classified elements of the hydrology field is analyzed. The steps to generate a causal map by analyzing are:
Classify at least two or more of urban land, industrial land, agricultural land, gross regional domestic product (GRDP), natural disaster damage, flooded area, water supply safety ratio, or population into the sociology field factors, and industrial water demand , classifying at least two or more of dam storage, precipitation, inflow, agricultural water demand, outflow, and domestic water demand into the hydrology field elements;
analyzing the causal relationship between the elements of the sociology field and the elements of the hydrology field with positive feedback changing in the same direction and negative feedback changing in different directions; and
generating the causal map representing the positive feedback and the negative feedback between the elements of the sociology field and the elements of the hydrology field using an arrow, a positive symbol, and a negative symbol based on the analyzed causal relationship including steps
A method of operation of a social hydrological system that supports decision-making in water resources-related policies. 8. The method of claim 7,
Based on the socio-economic scenario and climate change scenario and the generated causal map, changes in the sociology/hydrology field in which the sociology field changes of the classified elements of the sociology field and the hydrology changes of the classified elements of the hydrology field are linked Predict, calculate the water demand according to the predicted sociology/hydraulic field changes and the generated causal map, and calculate the watershed inflow according to the predicted sociology/hydraulic field changes and the generated causal map, , the step of calculating the discharge amount of the multi-purpose dam based on the calculated water demand,
The socio-economic scenario including the birth rate, the economic output per industrial site area and the demand for domestic water and the climate including at least one of occurrence of localized heavy rain, long-term drought, reduction of snow cover, change in snowmelt period, abnormal temperature, or single flood Assuming a change scenario, at least two or more of population, regional gross domestic product, water supply safety rate, flood damage, residential land, agricultural land, industrial land, and flooded area according to the hypothesized socioeconomic scenario and the hypothesized climate change scenario Predict the changes in the field of hydrology, including at least two of the changes in the sociology field including dam storage, inflow, outflow, domestic water demand, agricultural water demand, industrial water demand, and water shortage, wherein the predicted hydrology Considering births, deaths, the industrial site, the residential site, the gross regional product and the population moving out due to natural disasters for the population, along with sector changes, the population, the industrial site, the population for the gross regional product Considering the amount of damage caused by agricultural land and natural disasters, considering the water supply safety factor for living water, industrial water, agricultural water, river maintenance water, and the available water supply, Considering the sum and the flooded area, considering the population, the gross regional product, the industrial land and the agricultural land for the residential land, and the gross regional product, the residential land, the industrial land and predicting changes in the sociology field in consideration of the flooded area and the sum of the flood season maximum runoff and the flood season runoff with respect to the flooded area; and
Considering the inflow, the outflow, the limited storage, the minimum storage, the evaporation, and the minimum outflow for the dam reservoir together with the predicted sociological field changes, and considering the precipitation, outflow coefficient and watershed area for the inflow, the Considering the inflow amount, the water storage amount, the limited storage amount, the minimum water storage amount, the minimum outflow amount and the evaporation with respect to the outflow amount, the water supply population, the water supply supply rate, and the per capita water consumption are taken into account for the domestic water demand, and the agricultural water demand amount Changes in the field of hydrology by considering agricultural land and per unit of agricultural land, industrial land and per unit of site area for the industrial water demand, and total water demand and available water supply for the water shortage comprising the step of predicting
A method of operation of a social hydrological system that supports decision-making in water resources-related policies.

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