KR101710369B1 - System and method for predicting wind power ramp - Google Patents

Abstract

The present invention relates to a system and method for predicting a sudden increase in wind power generation in real time, and more particularly, to a system and method for predicting a sudden rise in wind power generation amount in real time using a ramp rate predicting unit for predicting a ramp rate per unit time up to a predetermined time, And a lamp information generator for generating ramp information by reflecting a correction value calculated by the correction value calculating unit to the ramp rate predicted by the ramp rate predicting unit, And a user can easily grasp and cope with a sudden increase in the amount of power generation, and to a method and system for predicting the increase in the amount of wind power generation.

Description

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION 1. Field of the Invention The present invention relates to a system and method for predicting wind power ramp,

The present invention relates to a system and method for predicting a sudden increase in wind power generation in real time, and more particularly, to a system and method for predicting a sudden rise in wind power generation amount in real time using a ramp rate predicting unit for predicting a ramp rate per unit time up to a predetermined time, And a lamp information generator for generating ramp information by reflecting a correction value calculated by the correction value calculating unit to the ramp rate predicted by the ramp rate predicting unit, And a user can easily grasp and cope with a sudden increase in the amount of power generation, and to a method and system for predicting the increase in the amount of wind power generation.

In recent years, research and development of environmentally friendly renewable energy using wind power, tidal power, and solar heat have been widely carried out due to problems of exhaustion of resources and environmental pollution caused by the use of fossil fuel and greenhouse effect. As a kind of renewable energy, wind power is a pollution-free energy source and it has an advantage over economical efficiency compared to other renewable energy such as solar heat and tidal power. Wind power has the above advantages but it is not kept constant according to natural conditions. It is very important to predict the amount of wind power generation because the power grid becomes unstable when the wind power changes suddenly when operating the power system. Therefore, for example, the power generation amount of the wind power generator is predicted in advance using the output data and / or the wind velocity data as in the following patent documents.

<Patent Literature>

Patent Publication No. 10-2012-0007783 (published on Jan. 25, 2012) "Method of predicting generation amount of wind power generation device"

However, the conventional power generation prediction method has a high prediction accuracy of the wind power generation in a general environment, but can not accurately predict the wind power ramp phenomenon, which means that the output of the wind power generator is rapidly increased or decreased when the wind speed is changed rapidly over time there is a problem.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION The present invention has been made to solve the above problems,

An object of the present invention is to provide a system and method for predicting wind power generation soaring that accurately predicts a sudden increase in wind power generation amount because the predicted wind power generation amount is corrected in consideration of a meteorological phenomenon causing a wind power generation amount ramp.

It is another object of the present invention to provide a system and method for predicting the wind power generation rate increase which can predict the leading time of wind power generation due to a sudden rise in the wind power generation rate using a difference in atmospheric pressure that can cause a rapid change in wind speed.

It is another object of the present invention to provide a system and method for predicting the increase in the amount of power generation because the user can easily identify and cope with the increase in the amount of power generation.

In order to achieve the above object, the present invention is implemented by the following embodiments.

The ramp rate prediction unit includes a ramp rate predicting unit for predicting a ramp rate for each unit time up to a predicted range time, and a ramp rate correction unit for calculating a ramp rate correction value using actual measured pressure information and an actual output value of the wind farm. And a lamp information generating unit for generating lamp information by reflecting the correction value calculated by the correction value calculating unit to the lamp rate predicted by the lamp rate predicting unit.

In the wind power generation surge prediction system according to another embodiment of the present invention, the correction value calculation unit includes a barometric pressure hardness generation module for generating barometric pressure hardness per unit time up to a certain point in the past based on the present pressure using the measured pressure information, And a ramp generation determining module for determining whether the ramp is generated for each unit time up to the predicted range time using the barometric hardness generated by the hardness generating module and the actual output value of the wind turbine.

In the wind power generation surge prediction system according to another embodiment of the present invention, the correction value calculation unit may determine whether or not the lamp is determined by the lamp generation determination module, the ramp rate predicted by the ramp rate prediction unit, And a correction value generation module for calculating a ramp rate correction value using the correction value.

In the wind power generation surge prediction system according to another embodiment of the present invention, the lamp generation determination module may be configured to estimate whether a lamp is generated by using a determination function having a measured output value and a barometric pressure hardness as variables .

In the wind power generation surge prediction system according to another embodiment of the present invention, the ramp information generation unit may reflect the ramp rate correction value calculated by the correction value calculation unit to the ramp rate predicted by the ramp rate predicting unit, A ramp rate correction module for calculating a final ramp rate for each time interval and a lamp information calculation module for generating ramp information for each unit time up to a predicted range time using a final ramp rate calculated by the lamp rate correction module, do.

In another aspect of the present invention, the ramp information may include whether a ramp is generated and a ramp type when the ramp is generated.

In the wind power generation surge prediction system according to another embodiment of the present invention, whether or not the lamp is generated is determined as a lamp is generated if the value of the final ramp rate / wind power facility capacity × 100 is greater than 20, If it is determined that the lamp has not occurred, it is determined that the upward ramp is generated when the final ramp rate is greater than 0, and the downward ramp is generated if the upward ramp is less than 0.

In the wind power generation surge forecasting system according to another embodiment of the present invention, the ramp rate predicting unit calculates the ramp rate of the wind power generation rate surplus by using the collected environment information to predict the wind speed and direction of the wind, A wind power prediction module for predicting an output value of the corresponding wind turbine per unit time up to the predicted range time using the wind speed and the wind direction predicted by the wind speed wind direction prediction module; And a ramp rate estimation module for predicting the ramp rate for each unit time up to the predicted range time using the time delay estimation method, The wind velocity and the wind direction of the wind flowing into the wind farm according to the time are predicted, The wind power prediction module includes an wind speed estimation module for estimating the wind speed of the hub height of each turbine of the wind farm using the wind speed and the wind direction predicted by the wind speed wind direction prediction module, And an output value generation module for summing the output values of the respective turbines calculated by the individual output estimation module and generating an output value of the corresponding wind turbine per unit time up to the predicted range time, The method for estimating the output value of each turbine in the estimation module is characterized by using a power curve that represents the output value of the turbine by the wind speed as a curve.

The ramp rate prediction step estimates the ramp rate for each unit time up to the predicted range time using the collected environment information in the wind power generation surge prediction method according to another embodiment of the present invention. And calculating lamp rate correction values by using the actual output values); and generating ramp information by reflecting the correction values calculated in the correction value calculating step to the ramp rates predicted in the ramp rate predicting step, And a lamp information generating step of displaying the lamp information.

In the wind power generation surge prediction method according to another embodiment of the present invention, the correction value calculation step may include a pressure hardness generation step of generating a pressure hardness per unit time up to a certain point in the past based on the present measured pressure data, A ramp generation determining step of determining whether a ramp is generated for each unit time up to the predicted range time using the barometric hardness generated in the pressure hardness generation step and the actual output value of the collected wind turbine; And a correction value generating step of calculating a ramp rate correction value in consideration of the wind speed and the wind direction of the lamp time, the ramp rate, the ramp rate predicted in the ramp rate predicting step, and the (predicted time - unit time) The information generating step may include a step of calculating a ramp rate correction value calculated in the correction value calculating step, A ramp rate correction step of calculating a ramp rate for each unit of time up to a predicted range time using a final ramp rate calculated in the ramp rate correction step; And a lamp information providing step of displaying the final ramp rate calculated in the ramp rate correction step for each unit time up to the predicted range time and whether the lamp generated in the lamp information calculating step and the lamp type are displayed on the terminal. do.

The present invention can obtain the following effects by the above-described embodiment, the constitution described below, the combination, and the use relationship.

The present invention corrects the predicted wind power generation amount in consideration of a meteorological phenomenon that causes a wind power generation amount increase (ramp), so that it is possible to accurately predict a wind power generation surge.

In addition, the present invention predicts a sudden rise in the amount of wind power generation using a difference in atmospheric pressure in which the wind speed is likely to change suddenly, thereby extending the predicted lead time.

Also, since the present invention provides whether or not the power generation surge occurs, the user can easily grasp the power generation surge and cope with it.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS FIG. 1 is a block diagram of a wind power generation surge prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention; FIG.
FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing a detailed configuration of the ramp rate predicting unit of FIG. 1; FIG.
3 is a block diagram showing a detailed configuration of the correction value calculation unit of FIG.
4 is a block diagram showing a detailed configuration of a ramp information generating unit of FIG.
5 is a block diagram showing a detailed configuration of the storage unit of FIG.
6 is a reference diagram for explaining a method of calculating a ramp rate correction value of the correction value generation module of FIG.
FIG. 7 is a flowchart illustrating a method for predicting a wind power generation surge using a prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention; FIG.
8 is a chart showing a correction value data table of 1-hour preceding prediction used in calculating the correction value of ramp rate of the correction value generation module of FIG.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS Hereinafter, preferred embodiments of a system and method for predicting wind power increase in accordance with the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS In the following description of the present invention, a detailed description of known functions and configurations incorporated herein will be omitted when it may make the subject matter of the present invention rather unclear. Throughout the specification, when an element is referred to as "including" an element, it is understood that the element may include other elements as well as other elements, The term "part, module" or the like means a unit for processing at least one function or operation, which may be implemented by hardware, software, or a combination of hardware and software.

1 is a block diagram showing a detailed configuration of a ramp rate predicting unit of FIG. 1, and FIG. 3 is a detailed block diagram of a ramp-rate predicting unit of FIG. 1 according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 4 is a block diagram showing the detailed configuration of the ramp information generating unit of FIG. 1, FIG. 5 is a block diagram showing the detailed configuration of the storage unit of FIG. 1, 7 is a flowchart for explaining a method of estimating a wind power generation surge using a prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention. Is a chart showing a correction value data table of 1-hour preceding prediction used in calculating the ramp rate correction value of the correction value generation module of FIG.

1 to 6, the wind power generation surge prediction system 100 receives information from the information providing system 200 and the output value providing system 300. The wind power generation surge prediction system 100 according to an embodiment of the present invention will now be described with reference to FIGS. (11) for collecting and providing lamp information calculated by the prediction system (100) to the terminal (400), and a control unit A ramp rate predicting unit 12 for predicting the amount of change in the wind power generation amount per unit time (hereinafter referred to as a "ramp rate") up to a predetermined time A correction value calculating section (13) for calculating a ramp rate correction value by using the actual output value of the wind turbine and the information, a correction value calculating section (13) for calculating a correction value calculated by the correction value calculating section Reflecting on the rate, A storage unit 15 for storing information used, generated and exchanged in the prediction system 100, and a controller (not shown) for performing overall control of the prediction system 100 16), and the like, which can accurately predict the wind power ramp.

The transceiver 11 collects information from the information providing system 200 and the output value providing system 300 and provides the terminal 400 with the lamp information estimated by the prediction system 100. The information providing system 200 is configured to measure and provide environment information including weather information such as atmospheric pressure, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, and humidity, and topographical information. For example, Device, a meteorological service server that provides public weather information, and the like can be used. The transmission / reception unit 11 collects atmospheric pressure of a collectable unit point located in a region within a certain distance (for example, 100 km) from the pressure of the wind farm and the wind farm when collecting the atmospheric pressure information from the information providing system 200 (For example, 1 hour) until a certain time point (for example, past 5 hours) of the past based on the current time. The output value providing system 300 is configured to measure and provide an output (output value) of a corresponding wind farm to provide lamp information in real time. The terminal 400 receives lamp information provided by the prediction system, A variety of electronic devices capable of displaying information such as a PC, a smart phone, and a tablet PC can be used.

The ramp rate predicting unit 12 estimates a unit time (for example, a predicted range time (hereinafter referred to as &quot; predicted range time &quot; A wind speed prediction module 122, a ramp rate estimation module 123 (hereinafter, referred to as &quot; ramp rate estimation module &quot;), ) And the like.

The wind speed wind direction prediction module 121 estimates the wind speed and direction of the wind flowing into the wind farm according to the unit time up to the predicted range time using the environmental information collected by the transceiver 11, A weather data forecasting module for predicting the wind speed and the wind direction can be used. For example, a virtual numerical forecasting module of WRF (Weather Research Forecasting), which is a three-dimensional numerical module, A time delay ensemble technique is used in which predicted values for the wind velocity and the wind direction of the above-mentioned meteorological forecast module are generated, and weighted values are generated to generate final predicted values. That is, the wind speed wind direction prediction module 121 predicts the wind speed and direction of the wind that flows into the corresponding wind farm per unit time up to the predicted range time using the time delay enableable blending technique for the virtual numerical prediction module WRF.

The wind power prediction module 122 is configured to predict an amount of power generation (output value) of the wind farm according to a unit time up to the predicted range time using the wind speed and the wind direction predicted by the wind speed wind direction prediction module 121, A wind speed estimation module 122a for estimating the wind speed of the hub height of each turbine of the wind turbine using the wind speed and the wind direction predicted by the module 121, An output value calculating unit 122b for calculating an output value of each wind turbine in each unit time up to the predicted range time by summing output values of the respective turbines calculated in the individual output calculating module 122b; Generation module 122c, and the like. As a method of calculating the output value for each turbine in the individual output calculation module 122b, various methods such as applying a theoretical expression or using a power curve can be used. For example, the output value for each wind speed of the turbine is represented by a curve, The output value of each turbine can be calculated using the power curve, which is the basic performance data.

The ramp rate calculation module 123 estimates the ramp rate for each unit time up to the predicted range time using the output value of the wind power complex estimated by the wind power prediction module 122. For example, It is estimated by Equation 1 that if the REMPLEE is greater than 0, the output is increased or decreased, and if it is less than 0, the output is decreasing.

[Equation 1]

(KW) - (predicted time - unit time) of the output value (kW) of Ramp rate = (predicted time)

The correction value calculation unit 13 is configured to calculate a ramp rate correction value using the real time actual pressure information collected by the transmission / reception unit 11 and the actual output value of the wind power complex. The correction value calculation unit 13 includes a pressure hardness generation module 131, A determination module 132, a correction value generation module 133, and the like.

The barometric pressure hardness generation module 131 uses the actual barometric pressure information collected from the transceiver 11 to measure a barometric pressure (for example, 1 hour) from a present time to a past time point The hardness is calculated by the following equation (2).

&Quot; (2) &quot;

Barometric hardness = Barometric hardness A | + | Barometric hardness B | + | Barometric hardness C |

(Where the barometric hardness is A = atmospheric pressure at the nearby A point - the wind pressure at the neighboring area if there is no measured data of the wind tunnel), the barometric hardness B = the atmospheric pressure at the nearby B point - Actual data of the nearest area when there is no actual data)

The lamp generation determination module 132 generates a ramp signal for each unit time up to the predicted range time using the barometric hardness generated by the barometric pressure hardness generation module 131 and the actual output value of the wind turbine collected from the transceiver 11, For example, the lamp generation determination module 132 calculates the presence or absence of the lamp using the determination function using the actual output value and the air pressure hardness of the wind farm as variables. A method of calculating the presence or absence of the lamp using the above-described discrimination function will be described in detail below.

The correction value generation module 133 determines whether or not the lamp has been determined by the lamp generation determination module 132, the ramp rate predicted by the ramp rate prediction unit 12, and the predicted time (T) The ramp rate correction value is calculated in consideration of the wind speed and the wind direction. The ramp rate correction value is determined using predetermined data by comparing a predicted value and an actual value with respect to a past specific period in a category as shown in FIG. 6, and a method of calculating a correction value using the data The details will be described below. The forecasting system predicts a sudden rise in the amount of wind power generation using a difference in atmospheric pressure that causes a sudden change in wind speed, so that the predicted time can be extended.

The lamp information generator 14 is configured to generate lamp information by reflecting the lamp rate correction value calculated by the correction value calculating unit 13 to the lamp rate predicted by the lamp rate predicting unit 12, A correction module 141, a lamp information calculation module 142, a lamp information provision module 143, and the like.

The lamp rate correction module 141 reflects the ramp rate correction value calculated by the correction value calculation unit 13 to the ramp rate predicted by the ramp rate predicting unit 12, For example, the final ramp rate is calculated by the following equation (3).

&Quot; (3) &quot;

Final ramp rate = ramp rate predicted by the ramp rate predicting unit + ramp rate correction value calculated by the correction value calculating unit

The lamp information calculation module 142 is configured to generate lamp information per unit time up to the predicted range time using the final lamp rate calculated by the lamp rate correction module 141. The lamp information includes information on whether or not the lamp is generated, And the lamp type of the lamp. For example, whether or not a lamp is generated is determined as a ramp has occurred if the value of the final ramp rate / wind power facility capacity × 100 is greater than 20, and it is determined that the ramp has not occurred. If the final ramp rate is greater than 0, an upward ramp is generated. If the final ramp rate is less than 0, a downward ramp occurs.

The lamp information providing module 143 supplies the final lamp rate calculated by the lamp rate correction module 141 and the lamp type generated in the lamp information calculation module 142 and the lamp type to the transmission / And displays it on the terminal 400 through the terminal unit 11. The terminal 400 can confirm the final ramp rate, whether or not the lamp is generated, and the type of the lamp in real time, so that the user can easily grasp and cope with the power generation surge.

The storage unit 15 stores information used, generated and exchanged in the prediction system 100 and includes a ramp rate predicting unit 12, a correction value calculating unit 13, and a lamp information generating unit 14 An operation information module 151 for storing information necessary for operation, a collection information module 152 for storing information collected by the transceiver 11, a ramp rate predicting unit 12, a correction value calculating unit 13 A generation information module 153 for storing the information generated in the lamp information generation unit 14, and the like. The control unit 16 performs overall control of the prediction system 100.

Referring to FIGS. 1 to 7, a method for predicting the wind power generation surplus according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG. (S11) for collecting information from the output value providing system (300); an information collection step (S1) for collecting information from the output value providing system A ramp rate predicting step (S2) for predicting a ramp rate correction value, a correction value calculating section (13) for calculating a ramp rate correction value using actual measured pressure information collected in the information gathering step (S1) And a ramp information generating step of generating ramp information by reflecting the correction value calculated in the correction value calculating step in the ramp rate estimated in the ramp rate predicting step, The produce includes a lamp information generating step (S4) and so on for displaying to the terminal 400. The method of estimating the wind power generation surge will be described in detail with reference to an example. The predicted range time is set to 6 hours in the current time and the unit time is set to 1 hour. In the information collection step S1, From the present time to the past five hours, it will collect in one hour unit.

The information collecting step S1 collects information from the information providing system 200 and the output value providing system 300 from the information providing system 200. The information gathering step S1 is a step in which the transmitting and receiving unit 11 collects information from the information providing system 200 and the output value providing system 300, And humidity information, terrain information, and the like, and collects actual output values of corresponding wind farms to which lamp information is to be provided from the output value providing system 300. For example, when collecting the atmospheric pressure information from the information providing system 200, the transceiver 11 in the information collecting step S1 collects the atmospheric pressure of the wind farm and the pressure of the collectable unit point located in the area within 100 km And collects the hourly pressure for the past five hours based on the present.

The ramp rate predicting step S2 is a step in which the ramp rate predicting unit 12 predicts a lamp rate per unit time up to the predicted range time using the environmental information collected in the information gathering step S1, Step S21, wind power prediction step S22, ramp rate calculation step S23, and the like.

The wind speed wind direction predicting step S21 is a step of estimating the wind speed wind direction prediction module 121 using the environment information collected in the information collecting step S1, As a prediction step, a conventional weather forecasting module for predicting the wind velocity and the wind direction using the collected environment information can be used. For example, the WRF, which is a virtual numerical forecasting module, The wind speed and the wind direction of the wind flowing into the corresponding wind farm per unit time are predicted.

The step of predicting the wind power output S22 is a step of predicting the output value of the corresponding wind turbine per unit time up to the predicted range time using the wind speed and the wind direction predicted in the wind speed wind direction prediction step S21 The wind speed estimation module 112a estimates the wind speed of the hub height of each turbine of the wind farm using the wind speed and the wind direction predicted in the wind speed wind direction prediction step S21 and the wind speed estimation module 122b A step of calculating an output value for each turbine using the wind speed estimated in the wind speed estimating step, an output value generating module 122c for calculating an output value for each turbine by summing the output values for each turbine calculated in the individual output calculating step, And an output value generation step of generating an output value of the corresponding wind turbine per unit time up to a time. The method of estimating the output value of each turbine in the individual output calculation step may be various methods such as applying a theoretical expression or using a power curve. For example, the output value of each turbine may be calculated using a power curve.

The ramp rate calculation step S23 is a configuration in which the ramp rate calculation module 123 estimates the ramp rate for each unit time up to the predicted range time using the output value of the wind power complex estimated in the wind power prediction step S22 For example, the ramp rate is calculated according to Equation (1) above. If the ramp rate is greater than 0, the output increases or decreases. When the ramp rate is less than 0, the output decreases. Table 1 shows a specific example of data obtained by performing the ramp rate predicting step S2. Table 1 shows wind speed and wind direction predicted in the wind speed wind direction predicting step S21, wind speed predicted in the wind power prediction step S22 The output value of the complex, the ramp rate predicted in the ramp rate calculation step S23, and the like.

division time Remarks Wind velocity Wind direction Output value of wind farm Lamp rate current time
(Measured value) 9 current time 5.5 231 355.7


Predicted value

10 1 hour leading 7.2 227 925.2 570 11 2 hours leading 7.8 231 796 -129 12 3 hours leading 9.9 228 1624.8 829 13 Four hours ahead 9.2 231 1161.6 -463 14 5 hours leading 6.2 226 594.9 -567 15 6 hours leading 6.9 222 858.9 264

The correction value calculating step S3 is a step of calculating a ramp rate correction value by using the actual pressure value information collected in the information collecting step S1 and the actual output value of the wind turbine, A generation step S31, a lamp generation determination step S32, a correction value generation step S33, and the like.

The barometric hardness generation step S31 may be performed until the barometric pressure hardness generation module 131 detects the barometric pressure by using the actual barometric pressure information collected in the information collecting step S1 until a past time point A step of generating a barometric pressure hardness per unit time (for example, 1 hour), which is calculated by the above-mentioned equation (2), for example.

The lamp generation determining step S32 may be performed by the lamp generation determining module 132 using the barometric hardness generated in the barometric hardness generating step S31 and the actual output value of the wind turbine collected in the information collecting step S1 The lamp generation determining step S32 is a step of determining whether or not the ramp is generated according to the unit time until the predicted range time. For example, the ramp generation determining step S32 uses the discrimination function having the actual output value and the air pressure hardness of the wind farm as variables, . , B1, B2, ..., C1, C2, ... in the following equation (4) are calculated by the corresponding power generation (A1, A2, ..., B1, B2, ..., C1, C2, ...) based on the past output values and measured values of the complex, ·) Will have respective values for ramp generation and ramp generation. In the lamp generation determination step S32, it is determined that the calculated value is equivalent to a classification having a larger value among the values calculated through the two determination functions of the lamp generation and the non-lamp generation. The coefficients of one example of the lamp discrimination function are as shown in Table 2.

&Quot; (4) &quot;

1) 1 hour forward prediction Ramp discriminant function = A1 × present output value + B1 × (current pressure hysteresis + + 1 hour electric pressure hardness + 2 hours electric pressure hardness + 3 hours electric pressure hardness + Hour total pressure hardness │ + │5 hour total pressure hardness │) + C1

2) 2-hour forward prediction Ramp discriminant function = A2 × present output value + B2 × (current pressure hysteresis │ + │1 hour electric pressure hardness │ + │2 hour electric pressure hardness │ + │3 hour electric pressure hardness │ + │4 Hour total pressure hardness │) + C2

3) Preliminary forecast for 3 hours Ramp discriminant function = A3 × present output value + B3 × (current pressure hardness │ + │1 hour electric pressure hardness │ + │2 hour electric pressure hardness │ + │3 hour electric pressure hardness │) + C3

4) 4-hour precedent prediction Ramp discriminant function = A4 × present output value + B4 × (current pressure hardness │ + │1 hour electric pressure hardness │ + │2 hour electric pressure hardness │) + C4

5) 5-hour forward prediction Ramp discriminant function = A5 × current output value + B5 × (current pressure hardness │ + │1 hour electric pressure hardness │) + C5

6) 6-hour precedent prediction Ramp discriminant function = A6 × present output value + B6 × (current pressure hardness │) + C6

Ramp discriminant function coefficient Current output
(A) Barometric hardness
(B) a constant
(C) 1 hour advance forecast
Ramp ○ 0.001 0.221 -4.812 Ramp X 0.001 0.179 -2.01 2-hour advance forecast
Ramp ○ 0.001 0.204 -3.047 Ramp X 0.001 0.192 -1.94 3-hour advance forecast
Ramp ○ 0.001 0.27 -2.842 Ramp X 0.001 0.221 -1.884 4 Hours Forecast
Ramp ○ 0.001 0.288 -3.241 Ramp X 0.001 0.265 -1.809 5 Hours Forecast
Ramp ○ 0.001 0.401 -3.891 Ramp X 0.001 0.341 -1.715 6-hour advance forecast Ramp ○ 0.001 0.552 -3.639 Ramp X 0.001 0.495 -1.554

The correction value generation step S33 may include the step of determining whether the lamp has been determined in the lamp generation determination step S32, the ramp rate predicted in the ramp rate prediction step S2 ), And (predicted time (T) - unit time), and calculates the ramp rate correction value. The ramp rate correction value is determined using predetermined data by comparing a predicted value and an actual value with respect to a past specific period in a category as shown in FIG. 6. FIG. 8 is a graph showing a relationship between a predicted value and an actual value, 1 shows an example of a correction value data table of one-hour precedence prediction. Though not shown, each of the preceding predicted correction values for 2 to 6 hours is also calculated using a predetermined data table by comparing the predicted value and the measured value. Table 3 shows a specific example of the data obtained by performing the correction value calculation step S3. Table 3 shows the barometric hardness generated in the pressure hardness generation step S31, the lamp hardness determined in the lamp occurrence determination step S32, And the ramp rate correction value generated in the correction value generation step S33 are described.

Barometric hardness (hPa) Lamp discrimination function Output complex Point A Branch B Branch C Point D Pressure hardness A Barometric hardness B Barometric hardness C Barometric hardness D Barometric hardness Lamp generation No lamp occurred Possibility of lamp ramp rate correction value Measured 5 hours ago 1025 1027 1027 1022 1024 1.7 1.9 2.6 1.1 7.3 Measured 4 hours ago 1025 1028 1029 1021 1023 2.6 3.2 3.9 2.0 11.7 Measured 3 hours ago 1026 1029 1030 1022 1024 3.1 3.5 4.6 2.1 13.4 Measured 2 hours ago 1026 1030 1030 1021 1024 3.7 3.9 5.6 2.2 15.4 Measured 1 hour ago 1027 1032 1031 1022 1023 5.4 4.4 4.6 3.6 18.0 Current measurement 1026 1033 1031 1021 1022 7.1 5.1 4.9 3.9 21.0 1 hour advance forecast 14.717 13.875 Lamp generation 35.20 2-hour advance forecast 13.521 13.674 No lamp occurred 4.06 3-hour advance forecast 15.804 13.442 Lamp generation 12.53 4 Hours Forecast 12.778 12.959 No lamp occurred 9057 5 Hours Forecast 12.104 11.940 Lamp generation 40.79 6-hour advance forecast 8.309 9.197 No lamp occurred 3.98

The ramp information generating step S4 is a step in which the ramp information generating unit 14 reflects the correction value calculated in the correction value calculating step S3 to the ramp rate predicted in the ramp rate predicting step S2, (S41), a lamp information calculation step (S42), a lamp information providing step (S43), and the like.

The ramp rate correction step S41 may be performed such that the ramp rate correction module 141 reflects the ramp rate correction value calculated in the correction value calculation step S3 to the ramp rate predicted in the ramp rate prediction step S2 Calculating a final ramp rate for each time interval up to the range time, for example, calculating the final ramp rate using Equation (3).

The lamp information calculation step S42 is a step in which the lamp information calculation module 142 generates lamp information per unit time up to a predicted range time using the final lamp rate calculated in the lamp rate correction step S41, The information includes whether or not the lamp is generated and the type of the lamp when the lamp is generated. For example, whether or not a lamp is generated is determined as a ramp has occurred if the value of the final ramp rate / wind power facility capacity × 100 is greater than 20, and it is determined that the ramp has not occurred. If the final ramp rate is greater than 0, an upward ramp is generated. If the final ramp rate is less than 0, a downward ramp occurs.

The lamp information providing step S43 may include a step of providing the lamp information providing module 143 with the final ramp rate calculated in the ramp rate correcting step S41 for each unit time up to the predicted range time, And the type of the lamp is displayed on the terminal 400 through the transmission / reception unit 11. [ Table 4 shows a specific example of data obtained by performing the lamp information generation step S4. Table 4 shows the final ramp rate calculated in the ramp rate correction step S41 and the ramp rate calculated in the lamp information calculation step S42 And the type of lamp.

Final ramp rate % Change Whether ramp occurred ramp type 1 hour advance forecast 604.7 20.2 Occur upward ramp 2-hour advance forecast 133.3 4.4 Not occurring 3-hour advance forecast 841.3 28.0 Occur upward ramp 4 Hours Forecast 472.8 15.8 Not occurring 5 Hours Forecast 607.5 20.2 Occur downward ramp 6-hour advance forecast 260.0 8.7 Not occurring

While the present invention has been described in connection with what is presently considered to be practical exemplary embodiments, it is to be understood that the invention is not limited to the disclosed embodiments, but, on the contrary, Should be interpreted as falling within the scope of.

11: Transmitting / receiving unit 12: ramp rate predicting unit 13:
14: lamp information generation unit 15: storage unit 16: control unit
121 wind speed direction prediction module 122 wind power output prediction module 123 rheFrame estimation module
131: pressure hardness generation module 132: lamp generation determination module 133: correction value generation module
141: lamp rate correction module 142: lamp information estimation module 143: lamp information provision module
151: Operation information module 152: Collection information module 153: Creation information module
122a: Wind speed estimation module 122b: Individual output estimation module 122c: Output value generation module
100: prediction system 200: information providing system 300: output value providing system
400: terminal

Claims (10)

A ramp rate predicting unit for predicting a ramp rate per unit time up to a predicted range time, a correction value calculating unit for calculating a ramp rate correction value using actual measured pressure information and an actual output value of the wind farm, And a ramp information generator for generating ramp information by reflecting the value of the ramp rate predicted by the ramp rate predicting unit to the ramp rate predicted by the ramp rate predicting unit,
The correction value calculator includes a barometric pressure hardness generating module for generating a barometric pressure hardness per unit time up to a certain point in the past based on the present pressure using the measured pressure information, A ramp generation determining module for determining whether a ramp is generated for each unit time up to the predicted range time using the ramp rate prediction module; And a correction value generation module for calculating a ramp rate correction value using the correction value,
Wherein the lamp occurrence determination module estimates whether a lamp is generated by using a discrimination function having a measured output value and a barometric pressure hardness as variables. delete delete delete 2. The apparatus of claim 1, wherein the lamp information generating unit
A ramp rate correction module for calculating a ramp rate correction value calculated by the correction value calculation unit to a ramp rate predicted by the ramp rate predicting unit and calculating a final ramp rate for each time interval until a predicted range time; And a lamp information estimation module for generating lamp information for each unit time up to the predicted range time using the calculated final lamp rate. 6. The method of claim 5,
And the type of the lamp when the lamp is generated. The method according to claim 6,
Whether or not the lamp is generated is determined as a ramp has occurred if the value of the final ramp rate / wind power facility capacity × 100 is greater than 20. If it is determined that the ramp has not occurred, And if the final ramp rate is greater than 0, it is determined that the upward ramp has occurred and that the down ramp has occurred if the final ramp rate is less than 0. The method according to claim 1,
Wherein the ramp rate predicting module comprises a wind speed wind direction prediction module for predicting the wind speed and direction of the wind flowing into the wind farm according to the unit time up to the predicted range time using the collected environment information, A predictor for predicting an output value of the corresponding wind turbine for each unit time up to a predicted range time, a lamp for predicting a ramp rate per unit time up to the predicted range time using the output value of the wind turbine predicted by the wind output prediction module, A rate calculation module,
The wind speed direction prediction module estimates the wind speed and direction of the wind flowing into the corresponding wind turbine per unit time up to the predicted range time using the time delay enabling method for the virtual numerical prediction module WRF,
The wind power prediction module includes an wind speed estimation module for estimating the wind speed of the hub height of each turbine of the wind farm using the wind speed and the wind direction predicted by the wind speed wind direction prediction module, And an output value generation module for generating an output value of the corresponding wind turbine for each unit time up to a predicted range time by summing the output values of the respective turbines calculated by the individual output estimation module, Wherein the method for calculating the output value for each turbine in the output estimation module uses a power curve that represents the output value of the turbine by the wind speed as a curve. A ramp rate predicting step of predicting a ramp rate per unit time up to the predicted range time using the collected environmental information, a correction value calculating step of calculating a ramp rate correction value using the measured actual pressure value and the measured output value of the wind farm And a lamp information generating step of generating ramp information by reflecting the correction value calculated in the correction value calculating step to the ramp rate predicted in the ramp rate predicting step and displaying it on the terminal,
Wherein the calibration value calculation step includes a barometric pressure hardness generation step of generating a barometric pressure hardness for each unit time based on the current measured value using the collected measured pressure information, A ramp generation determining step of determining whether or not a ramp is generated for each unit time up to a predicted range time using a measured output value of the complex; a step of determining whether or not the lamp is determined in the lamp generation determining step, A correction value generation step of calculating a ramp rate correction value in consideration of the wind speed and the wind direction of the time of the predicted time (T) - unit time)
The ramp information generating step may include a ramp rate correcting step of calculating a ramp rate correction value calculated in the correction value calculating step to a predicted ramp rate in the ramp rate predicting step and calculating a final ramp rate in each time interval up to a predicted range time A ramp information calculation step of generating ramp information for each unit time up to the predicted range time using the final ramp rate estimated in the ramp rate correction step; And a lamp information providing step of displaying on the terminal whether or not the lamp is generated in the lamp information calculating step. delete

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