KR101066619B1 - Prediction system and method using USSD message - Google Patents

Abstract

A mobile demand prediction system using USSD is disclosed. The demand prediction system includes an unstructured supplementary service data (USSD) message at a time interval between a mobile subscriber information management device that manages subscriber information of a mobile communication terminal including age information, and a mobile communication terminal located in a candidate region and an adjacent region. Determine the founding candidate region and the neighboring region by using a founding property including a mobile communication network and a founding region information for controlling to send a message, and transfer the age information of the subscriber of the mobile communication terminal that sent the USSD message. Demand analysis for receiving from the communication subscriber information management device, generating demographic attributes using the information on the time and area of origination of the USSD message, and performing demand forecasting using the age information and the demographic attributes. Device.

Mobile communication, start-up, demand forecast

Description

Demand forecasting system and method using USSD message {Prediction system and method using USSD message}

The present invention relates to demand forecasting, and more particularly, to a mobile demand forecasting system and method using USSD.

There are a growing number of retail business owners, but recent statistics show that the average profit is less than 5%. Even though it is easy to start a retail business, it is difficult to make profit through actual operation.

Most failed retailer entrepreneurs invest in entrepreneurship, believing the situation or broker's words around the candidate site without accurate criteria or information. In order to reduce the risk of failure of start-ups and operations, a system is needed to establish the marketing strategy through demand forecasting of the industry.

An object of the present invention is to propose a method that can utilize the mobile information of the mobile subscriber.

Another object of the present invention is to provide useful demand forecasting information to retail entrepreneurs using mobile information of mobile subscribers.

Another object of the present invention is to enable accurate demand prediction by statistically analyzing mobile information of mobile subscribers.

According to an aspect of the present invention, a mobile communication subscriber information management device that manages subscriber information of a mobile communication terminal including age information, and a mobile communication terminal located in a start-up candidate region and an adjacent region at a time interval of an unstructured supplementary service Data) determines the founding candidate region and the neighboring region by using a founding property including a mobile communication network and a founding region information for controlling to send a message, and the age of the subscriber of the mobile terminal which sent the USSD message. Receive information from the mobile subscriber information management device, generate demographic attributes using the information on the time and origination of the USSD message, and use the age information and the demographic attributes to predict demand A demand forecasting system including a demand analysis device for performing It is.

According to another aspect of the present invention, in a method for performing demand forecasting for a start-up candidate site, a start-up candidate region and an adjacent region are determined by using a start-up property including the start-up region information, and the start-up candidate region and the adjacent region are determined. The mobile communication terminal controls the mobile communication network to send an unstructured supplementary service data (USSD) message at a time interval, and the age information of the subscriber of the mobile communication terminal that sent the USSD message is transmitted from the mobile subscriber information management device. There is provided a demand forecasting method for receiving, generating demographic attributes using the information on the time and origination of the USSD message, and performing demand forecasting using the age information and the demographic attributes.

According to the present invention, since the mobile information of the mobile subscriber is used for the demand forecast, there is an advantage that the demand forecast is more accurate.

In addition, since it is possible to use a variety of demographic properties, there is an advantage that can provide more specific and accurate information necessary for the start-up, such as the selection of a start-up candidate area.

As the invention allows for various changes and numerous embodiments, particular embodiments will be illustrated in the drawings and described in detail in the written description. However, this is not intended to limit the present invention to specific embodiments, it should be understood to include all transformations, equivalents, and substitutes included in the spirit and scope of the present invention. In the following description of the present invention, if it is determined that the detailed description of the related known technology may obscure the gist of the present invention, the detailed description thereof will be omitted.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. In order to facilitate a thorough understanding of the present invention, the same reference numerals are used for the same means regardless of the number of the drawings.

1 is a view showing a demand forecasting system according to an embodiment of the present invention. Referring to FIG. 1, the demand forecasting system includes a demand analysis device 100, a mobile communication network 160, and a mobile subscriber information management device 170.

The demand analysis apparatus 100 collects information required for demand prediction and analyzes the collected information to predict demand. The demand analysis apparatus 100 may include an information input unit 110, a data collector 120, a data analyzer 130, and an information provider 140. The demand analysis apparatus 100 collects mobile information about a mobile communication terminal near a founding candidate site and performs a demand forecast. Information on the mobile communication terminal required for demand prediction is collected through the mobile communication network 160. Meanwhile, the collected age information of the subscriber of the mobile communication terminal is provided by the mobile subscriber information management device 170.

The information input unit 110 receives a founding attribute required for demand forecasting. The information input unit 110 provides an input screen including at least one input window to input a preset start-up property so that a user can input information corresponding to each input window. The founding property includes the founding area information.

The data collection unit 120 selects a central base station for data collection and neighboring base stations of the central base station by using the founding area information included in the founding property. The central base station is a base station located in the start-up candidate area determined by the start-up area information, and the neighboring base station is an adjacent area that is around the start-up candidate area. One or more neighbor base stations may be selected, and FIG. 3 illustrates an example in which eight neighbor base stations are selected. In addition, the data collection unit 120 requests the mobile communication network 160 to collect data on the mobile communication terminals located within the coverage of the central base station located in the start-up candidate area and the adjacent area and the plurality of neighboring base stations. In response to the request, the USSD message provided by the mobile communication network 160 is processed by the data collector 120 and transmitted to the data analyzer 130.

The data collector 120 requests the mobile communication network 160 to transmit the USSD message at time intervals. That is, USSD message collection is performed at least twice in the same region. The time interval refers to an interval of days or hours, and when collecting USSD messages over several days, the data collector 120 may request the mobile communication network 160 to collect USSD messages at the same time. In another embodiment, USSD message collection may be performed at irregularly selected times, and the number of times may be preset.

The data collector 120 transmits the reference information generated by using the collected USSD message to the data analyzer 130. The collected USSD message is transmitted from each base station to the data collection unit 120. The data collector 120 stores the identifier of the mobile communication terminal that has sent the USSD message and the identifier of the base station that has transmitted the data to the data collector as a recording unit. The reference information includes a mobile communication terminal identifier, a base station identifier, and a reception time. Meanwhile, the data collecting unit 120 transmits the subscriber age information request including the mobile terminal identifier to the mobile subscriber information management device 170 and adds the subscriber age information received in response thereto to the corresponding recording unit. can do. In this case, the reference information further includes subscriber age information.

The data analyzing unit 130 performs demand prediction using the reference information provided from the data collecting unit 120. The data analyzer 130 generates demographic attributes, which are useful statistical data, using the reference information, and predicts demand by applying the generated demographic attributes to a predetermined demand forecast analysis table. Examples of applying the demand forecasting analysis table and the demographic attributes are shown in FIGS. 4 and 5, respectively. The demand prediction process of the data analyzer 130 will be described with reference to FIGS. 4 and 5. The result of the demand forecast is the start-up feasibility index, which is provided with demographic attributes.

The demographic attributes generated by the data analysis unit 130 using the reference information include one or a combination of population size, age distribution, floating population / fixed population, and population movement propensity. Population size, age distribution, floating / fixed population, and population migration tendencies can all be generated by time zone. In this case, it is assumed that they are divided by time zone.

Population size by time zone is generated from the USSD message collected by the central base station, and counts the number of mobile communication terminals that sent the USSD message by time zone.

The age distribution by time zone is generated from the USSD message collected by the central base station, and transmits the identifier of the mobile communication terminal that sent the USSD message to the mobile subscriber information management device 170 for each time zone, and responds to the corresponding mobile communication terminal. The age information of the subscriber is received and calculated. The identifier is sufficient to identify the mobile communication terminal such as, for example, MIN, ESN, MDMSDN or IMSI.

The fixed population is generated from USSD messages collected by the central base station, and counts the number of mobile communication terminals collected in duplicate for each time zone. For example, if a total of 100 mobile communication terminals were collected per day, information on the fixed population was calculated by counting how many times each mobile communication terminal was repeatedly collected. The floating population is calculated by subtracting the fixed population from the population size.

Population mobility propensity is generated from the USSD messages collected by the central base station and the neighboring base stations, and among the identifiers of the mobile communication terminals extracted from the USSD messages collected by the central base station and the mobile terminal extracted from the USSD messages collected by the neighboring base stations. It is calculated by counting common identifiers.

The information providing unit 140 provides the user with a start-up feasibility index which is a result of the demand prediction. Along with the start-up feasibility index, demographic attributes may also be provided. The information providing unit 140 generates a screen displaying the founding feasibility index and demographic attributes and transmits the generated screen to the user's terminal (not shown).

2 is a screen for inputting a start-up property into a demand forecasting system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

The input screen generated by the information input unit 110 is displayed on the user's terminal as shown in FIG. 2. 2 includes four input windows for inputting a start-up property required for demand forecasting. Here, the entrepreneurship property includes a start-up business 210, a start-up area 220, a start-up time 230, and a start-up scale 240. The start-up area 220 is used as information for determining a start-up candidate site. As a start-up attribute that can be inputted, only the start-up business type, start-up area, start-up time, and start-up size are displayed, but this is only an example, and it is obvious that the basic items can be variously changed according to the type of demand forecasting. In order to facilitate the user's selection, the input window may be generated in a drop down method or a lion button method.

In the start-up industry 210, a user may input an industry that is planning to start a business. Here, it is assumed that the user may input any one of a service industry, a manufacturing industry, and a distribution business. In an embodiment, when the entrepreneurship type 210 is input, the areas in which the type of business is active are displayed in the entrepreneurship area 220 in a predetermined order (active degree or dictionary order), and each input window may be implemented to be selected by the user. have.

In the entrepreneurship area 220, a user may input a entrepreneurship candidate who is planning to start a business. Here, it is assumed that the user can input any one of a metropolitan area, a provincial city, and a suburb. The start-up area may be specified in more detail, such as street address or road name. In an embodiment, the start-up area that can be designated by the user may be limited to the place name where the base station of the mobile communication network is located. In another embodiment, if the user-defined start-up area is not a dead area, the USSD message may be collected using a base station covering the designated start-up area.

In the start-up time 230, a user may input a time when the user plans to start a business. Here, it is assumed that the user can input any one of the beginning, the middle, and the end of the year. In an embodiment, the user may determine when to start a business on a monthly or weekly basis.

The start-up scale 240 may input the size planned by the user, and it is assumed here that one of the large, medium, and small can be input. In an embodiment, the user may input the startup size using various variables such as sales and the number of employees.

3 is an exemplary diagram for explaining a process of selecting a region to perform demand forecasting according to an embodiment of the present invention.

The mobile communication network 160 is requested to collect USSD messages from the mobile communication terminal at time intervals from the data collection unit 120. Among the base stations belonging to the mobile communication network 160, the central base station and the neighboring base stations repeatedly collect USSD messages at the request of the data collector 120. Since the base stations belonging to the mobile communication network 160 have unique identifiers, USSD messages collected by a specific base station may be distinguished from USSD messages collected by other base stations by the base station identifier.

When the user inputs a start-up candidate region through the start-up region 220 input window displayed on the start-up property input screen of FIG. 2, a base station located in the start-up candidate region input using the region name-base station matching table of the mobile communication network 160. An identifier can be obtained. The region name-base station matching table is a table shown in FIG. 3, and is composed of a region name field and a base station identifier field. As illustrated in FIG. 3, when a user inputs Jamsil Station 5 as a start-up candidate region, a corresponding base station identifier may be obtained using a region name-base station matching table. The obtained base station identifier is used not only to identify a base station to request USSD message collection but also to distinguish collected USSD message.

Once the central base station is determined, one or more adjacent neighbor base stations are selected for the central base station. The neighboring base station may be a base station located in four directions of east, west, south, and north, or eight directions of southeast, southwest, northeast, and northwest of the center base station. In another embodiment, neighboring base stations may be selected based on roads in the candidates for starting a business. The neighbor base stations may be selected in various ways, for example, through a method of comparing geographical location information (ie, longitude and latitude) of each base station. It is apparent that various methods may exist.

The mobile network collects USSD messages in the following manner.

1. At the request of the data collector 120, the central base station and / or the neighboring base station transmits a CBS (Cell Broadcasting Service) message to all mobile communication terminals within the base station coverage.

2. All mobile communication terminals located within the coverage of the central base station and / or the neighbor base station transmit USSD messages to the central base station and / or the neighbor base station in response to the CBS message.

3. The central base station and / or the neighbor base station transmits the received USSD message to the data collector 120.

4 is a diagram illustrating an example of a demand forecast analysis table. The demand forecasting algorithm utilizes the demand forecasting analysis table of FIG. 4 using association rules and classification rules. The demand forecast analysis table expresses the correlation index between the founding attributes (415, 425, 435, 445) and the regional demographic attributes (410, 420, 430, 440) in the top, middle, and bottom. The correlation index is derived from the expert Delphi technique. In the demand forecast analysis table, the prize is assigned to 9, the middle to 3, and the 1 to 450.

In the demand forecast analysis table shown in FIG. 4, the statistical attributes are set as follows. In the time zone distribution, it is set to 6 am to 11 am, as low as 11 am to 16 pm, and 16 pm to 5 pm the next day. In the age distribution, the first year is set to be under 18 years old, the middle age is 18 to 35 years old, and the middle age is 35 years old or older. At the fixed flow rate, the flow is set when the proportion of mobile communication terminals collected in duplicate is less than 30% of the total collected mobile communication terminals, the middle is 30% to 60%, and the fixed is set to 60% or more. In demographic trends, unilaterality is the case where the proportion of redundant mobile communication terminals between the central base station and the neighboring base stations in a specific direction is more than 60% of the total collection of neighboring base stations, and in the middle, the ratio of redundant mobile communication terminals between the central base station and the neighboring base stations is total. In the case of less than 30% of the collection mobile communication terminals, the degree of multiplicity is divided into a case where the ratio of the overlapping mobile communication terminals of the central base station and neighboring base stations in three or more directions is more than 60% of the total collection mobile communication terminals.

FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating a result of processing the collected terminal information and applying it to the demand forecasting analysis table of FIG. 4. The start-up business is set to service business (515), the start-up area to the metropolitan area (525), the start time is mid (535), and the start-up scale is set to medium (545).

Demand forecasting consists of a process of deriving the feasibility index of business start-up by comparing demographic attributes with demand forecast analysis tables generated using statistical data. The start-up feasibility index derived as a result of demand forecasting is a value between 0 and 1, where 1 is the most feasible start-up feasibility. Conversely, the closer to 0, the lower the start-up feasibility. The demand forecast analysis table can be produced not only in the metropolitan area but also in the actual administrative area as shown in FIG.

The process of performing demand forecast is as follows.

1. In the demand forecasting analysis table, select the time zone with the largest population among timephased distributions. Here, the largest population is shown in the afternoon (510). Age distribution, floating rate, and population mobility propensity are selected in the same way. Here, it is assumed that the age distribution is the most middle age (520), the flow fixed ratio is a lot of floating population (530), the population mobility is unilateral (540) is prominent.

2. Intersection point between the selected items (510, 520, 530, 540), and the selected items (515, 525, 535, 545, respectively) in time distribution, age distribution, fixed fixed ratio, and population mobility tendency. The correlation index corresponding to is added up. The combined value for each founding attribute is described in the right columns 517, 527, 537, and 547 of FIG. 5.

3. Calculate the validity index by dividing the total sum by 144. In FIG. 5, since the start-up property was input to the service industry, the metropolitan area, the middle, and the middle, and the result of the analysis shows the demographic property of the afternoon, middle age, flow, and unilaterality, the start-up feasibility index is 0.667.

6 is a flowchart illustrating a demand forecasting method according to an embodiment of the present invention.

The information input unit 110 provides an input screen including at least one input window so that the user can input a preset start-up property so that the user can input information corresponding to each input window (610). In an embodiment, the entrepreneurship attribute includes a entrepreneurship type, a entrepreneurship region, a start-up time, and a start-up scale.

The data collector 120 selects a central base station for data collection and neighboring base stations of the central base station using the founding area information included in the founding property (620). The central base station and the neighbor base station may be selected using the region name-base station matching table.

The data collection unit 120 requests the mobile communication terminal to send an Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) message to the central base station located in the start-up candidate area and the neighbor base station located in the adjacent area at intervals. Upon receiving the request, the base station sends a CBS message to all mobile terminals in base station coverage. The mobile communication terminal receiving the CBS message sends a USSD message to the base station (630). This process is repeated several times according to the preset collection setting information (640). Collection setting information includes the information about the collection period, collection frequency. The number of collections may be designated five or any number of times per day. The collected USSD message is transmitted to the data collector 120.

The data collector 120 aligns the information and the reception time of the mobile communication terminal that has sent the USSD message, receives age information of each subscriber from the mobile communication subscriber information management device, and generates reference information. . The reference information is transmitted to the data analyzer 130 and used to generate demographic attributes (650).

The data analyzer 130 performs demand forecasting using demographic attributes (660).

It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various modifications and variations can be made in the present invention without departing from the spirit or scope of the invention as defined in the appended claims. It will be understood that the invention may be varied and varied without departing from the scope of the invention.

1 is a view showing a demand forecasting system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

2 is a screen for inputting a start-up property into a demand forecasting system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

3 is an exemplary diagram for explaining a process of selecting a region to perform demand forecasting according to an embodiment of the present invention.

4 is a diagram illustrating an example of a demand forecast analysis table.

FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating a result of processing the collected terminal information and applying it to the demand forecasting analysis table of FIG. 4.

6 is a flowchart illustrating a demand forecasting method according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Claims (10)

In a demand forecasting system for performing demand forecasting for a start-up candidate site, A mobile communication subscriber information management device for managing subscriber information of a mobile communication terminal including age information; A mobile communication network for controlling mobile communication terminals located in a founding candidate region and an adjacent region to send an Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) message at a time interval; And Determine the founding candidate region and the neighboring region by using the founding property including the founding region information, and receive age information of the subscriber of the mobile communication terminal that has sent the USSD message from the mobile communication subscriber information management apparatus. And a demand analysis device for generating demographic attributes by using the USSD message origination time and information on the origin region, and performing demand forecasting using the age information and the demographic attributes. The demographic attribute includes information about a fixed population generated by calculating the number of duplicate USSD messages in the USSD messages sent at the time interval. delete The demand forecasting system of claim 1, wherein the demand analysis device further generates demographic attributes further comprising population movement propensity using the USSD message sent from the candidate candidate region and the adjacent region. The method of claim 1, wherein the demand analysis device, An information input unit configured to receive the founding property; A data collector configured to collect the USSD message from the mobile communication terminal located in the candidate candidate region and the neighboring region determined using the founding property through the mobile communication network; A data analyzing unit configured to apply the demographic attribute and the age information generated by analyzing the USSD message to a preset demand forecasting table to perform demand forecasting; And Demand forecasting system comprising an information providing unit for providing a result of performing the demand forecasting. The system of claim 1, wherein the founding property further includes any one of a business type, a business time, a business size, and a combination thereof. In the method of performing the demand forecast for the start-up candidate site, Determining a founding candidate region and an adjacent region by using a founding property including founding region information; Controlling a mobile communication network to transmit an unstructured supplementary service data (USSD) message at a time interval between mobile communication terminals located in the founding candidate region and an adjacent region; Receiving age information of the subscriber of the mobile communication terminal that has sent the USSD message from the mobile communication subscriber information management device; Generating demographic attributes by using the USSD message origination time and information regarding the origination region; And And performing demand forecasting using the age information and the demographic attributes, Wherein said demographic attribute includes information about a fixed population generated by calculating the number of duplicate USSD messages in said USSD messages sent at said time interval. delete 7. The method of claim 6, wherein the demographic attribute further comprises population movement propensity information generated using the USSD message sent from the start-up candidate region and the adjacent region. 7. The method of claim 6, wherein the demographic attribute further includes information on population size by calculating the number of sent USSD messages. 10. The method of claim 9, wherein the demographic attribute further comprises information about a floating population created using the population size and the fixed population.

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