JPWO2017038373A1 - Analysis system and analysis method - Google Patents

Abstract

When the correctness of the prediction determination is determined based on the operating state of the target device for a predetermined period after it is determined to be defective, and at least the operating state of the target device changes normally after it is determined to be defective In the case where it is determined that the prediction determination is wrong, the prediction is made when the operation state of the target device is changed normally by executing a predetermined countermeasure for the target device after it is determined to be defective. It is determined that the determination was correct.

Description

  The present invention relates to an analysis system and an analysis method for determining correctness of prediction determination regarding an operating state of a target device.

  For example, as a method for monitoring a steam trap as a target device, US Pat. No. 8,935,126 (Patent Document 1) collects data of each steam trap during an initial operation period of the steam trap, and based on the collected data. A method is disclosed in which an upper limit value and a lower limit value of a normal range are set as threshold values for each steam trap, and prediction determination of whether the steam trap is in a transient state or a stable state is performed using the threshold values.

  At this time, if the transient state is considered to be a state with a high probability of subsequently becoming defective (this is assumed to be a failure tendency), by detecting this failure tendency, some measure is taken before the target steam trap becomes defective. Can be done.

U.S. Pat. No. 8,935,126

  The threshold value (determination criterion) for prediction determination obtained by the method of Patent Document 1 is only temporary. For this reason, even if it is determined to be a transient state (deterioration tendency), it is often recovered to a stable state (normal) after that. In such a case, it is determined that there is an unnecessary deterioration tendency, and the target device is There is a risk that wasteful treatment will occur frequently. For this reason, even after the determination criteria are set, in order to avoid inconsistency between the prediction determination result and the subsequent transition of the steam trap state, the accuracy of the prediction determination is improved while referring to the transition of the steam trap state after the prediction determination. It is desirable to make a determination and update a determination criterion for prediction determination.

  At this time, the prediction determination is incorrect when the operation state of the target device has transitioned normally after being determined to be defective, and the prediction determination is correct when the operation state of the target device has transitioned to defective. Based on this, it is conceivable to determine the accuracy of prediction determination. However, since the work such as replacement is forced when the target device actually becomes defective, if it is possible to take measures against the device, it is preferable to take measures against the failure to avoid the failure. However, if the countermeasure against the failure is successful, the operation state of the target device that should have transitioned to the failure is normally restored, and if the accuracy analysis is performed as described above, the prediction determination is erroneous. For this reason, it is inconvenient to perform the above-described accuracy analysis including the result of prediction determination in the case of taking countermeasures against defects. On the other hand, if the prediction determination result when the defect countermeasure is taken later is not used for the accuracy analysis, the number of populations for the accuracy analysis decreases, and the accuracy analysis cannot be performed efficiently.

  Therefore, it is desired to realize an analysis system and an analysis method that can efficiently determine the accuracy of prediction determination for a target device.

The analysis system according to the present disclosure is:
A detector for detecting the operating state of the target device;
Based on the detection data of the detector, a determination unit that performs a prediction determination as to whether the operation state of the target device is normal or has a high probability of becoming defective thereafter,
The correctness / incorrectness of the prediction determination is determined based on the operating state of the target device for a predetermined period after it has been determined to be defective, and the operating state of the target device has changed to normal after at least being determined to be defective And an accuracy analysis unit that determines that the prediction determination is incorrect,
When the accuracy analysis unit recognizes that a predetermined countermeasure has been performed on the target device after it has been determined to be defective, the accuracy analysis unit recognizes that the operation state of the target device is after the countermeasure. When the change is normal, it is determined that the prediction determination is correct.

  Even if countermeasures for defects are taken later, if the operation status of the target device is recovered normally by executing the countermeasures for defects, it means that the target device has a problem that can be resolved by the countermeasures against the defects. It can be said that if the failure countermeasures are not taken, then the operating state has become defective. Therefore, according to this configuration, when the operation state of the target device is recovered normally by performing the countermeasure against the failure, it is determined that the operation state of the target device has changed to a failure if nothing is done. Is determined to be correct. As a result, it is possible to use the result of prediction determination in the case of taking countermeasures for defects later in the accuracy analysis, so that the accuracy of prediction determination for the target device can be determined efficiently.

  Hereinafter, a preferable aspect of the analysis system according to the present disclosure will be described. However, the scope of the present invention is not limited by the preferred embodiments described below.

  As one aspect, it is preferable to include a determination reference correction unit that corrects the determination reference in the prediction determination based on the determination result in the accuracy analysis unit.

  According to this configuration, the accuracy of prediction determination can be improved by correcting the determination criterion in prediction determination based on the result of accuracy analysis.

  As one aspect, the determination unit includes a plurality of determination logics for the detection data, determines whether each determination logic is normal or defective, and sets a weighting coefficient determined for each determination logic. The determination results of the respective determination logics are integrated, and the prediction determination is performed based on the integrated determination results. The determination criterion correction unit corrects the weighting coefficient based on the determination results in the accuracy analysis unit. It is preferable.

  According to this configuration, since prediction determination is performed by integrating a plurality of determination logics, a predictive determination without omission is possible, for example, signs that cannot be detected by a certain determination logic can be determined by other determination logics. And since the weighting coefficient at the time of integrating a determination result is correct | amended based on the result of an accuracy analysis, the precision of prediction determination can be raised more flexibly.

  As one aspect, it is preferable that the detector includes, in the detection data, the fact that the defect countermeasure is executed when the defect countermeasure is performed on the target device.

  According to this configuration, if the countermeasure against the defect is executed on the target device, the fact that the countermeasure against the defect has been taken is stored in the storage unit together with the detection data. Can be omitted.

  As one aspect, it is preferable that the target device is configured to automatically execute the defect countermeasure on itself.

  According to this configuration, it is possible to save labor for the worker to perform defect countermeasures on the target device.

The analysis method according to the present disclosure is:
A detection step for detecting the operating state of the target device;
Based on the detection result, a prediction determination step for performing a prediction determination as to whether the operation state of the target device is normal or has a high probability of becoming defective thereafter, and
The correctness / incorrectness of the prediction determination is determined based on the operating state of the target device for a predetermined period after it has been determined to be defective, and the operating state of the target device has changed to normal after at least being determined to be defective And a correct / incorrect determination step for determining that the prediction determination is incorrect,
In the correctness / incorrectness determination step, when the operation state of the target device is changed normally by executing a predetermined countermeasure on the target device after being determined to be defective, it is determined that the prediction determination is correct To do.

  According to this configuration, it is possible to obtain the same effects as those of the analysis system described above.

Schematic configuration diagram of an analysis system according to this embodiment Block diagram of analyzer Graph showing an example of the transition of the operating state of the steam trap Graph showing an example of the transition of the operating state of the steam trap Graph showing an example of the transition of the operating state of the steam trap Cross section of steam trap

  Embodiments of an analysis system and an analysis method according to the present disclosure will be described with reference to the drawings. The analysis system 1 according to the present embodiment includes a detector 12 (FIG. 1), a determination unit 24 (FIG. 2), and an accuracy analysis unit 25 (FIG. 2). The detector 12 detects the operating state of the target device 11 (FIG. 1). Based on the detection data from the detector 12, the determination unit 24 performs prediction determination as to whether or not the operation state of the target device 11 is normal or has a high probability of becoming defective thereafter. The accuracy analysis unit 25 determines the correctness of the prediction determination based on the operating state of the target device 11 for a predetermined period after it is determined to be a failure tendency, and at least after the determination is made as a failure tendency, When the operating state changes normally, it is determined that the prediction determination is incorrect. Then, when the accuracy analysis unit 25 recognizes that a predetermined countermeasure has been performed on the target device 11 after it has been determined that the trend is defective, the accuracy analysis unit 25 recognizes the target device 11 after the countermeasure. When the operating state changes normally, it is determined that the prediction determination is correct. Thereby, the precision of the prediction determination with respect to the object apparatus 11 can be determined efficiently. Hereinafter, an example in which the analysis system according to the present embodiment is applied to a monitoring system for monitoring a steam plant in which a large number of steam traps as examples of target devices are installed in various places will be described.

  As shown in FIG. 1, a monitoring system 1 to which an analysis system according to the present embodiment is applied monitors the operating state of a number of steam traps 11 installed at various locations in a steam plant 10 with an analyzer 20. In general, in the monitoring system 1, data collected from the steam trap 11 in the steam plant 10 is transmitted to the analyzer 20 via the network 30, and the analyzer 20 analyzes the transmitted data, and there is an abnormality. In such a case, notification is made to the steam plant 10 side (for example, the DCS (Distributed Control System) of the steam plant 10). Hereinafter, the monitoring system 1 will be described more specifically.

  Although not shown in FIG. 1, the steam plant 10 is provided with a large number of steam traps 11 at various locations, and a detector 12 that detects the operating state of the steam trap 11 is provided for each steam trap 11 to be monitored. Is provided. The detector 12 can communicate with the on-site management device 14 via the repeater 13, and the detection data of the detector 12 for each steam trap 11 is transmitted to the on-site management device 14. That is, in the steam plant 10, detection data for each steam trap 11 is collected by the on-site management device 14.

  In the present embodiment, the detector 12 includes a temperature sensor and an ultrasonic sensor (not shown), and detects temperature and ultrasonic vibration as an example of the operating state of the steam trap 11. The detector 12 performs detection by a temperature sensor and an ultrasonic sensor continuously or at predetermined time intervals by a control unit (not shown), and after each detection, the temperature detected from each sensor by a communication unit (not shown). The ultrasonic vibration detection data is transmitted to the on-site management device 14 via the repeater 13. Thus, by intermittently detecting the operating state of the steam trap 11, the power consumption of the detector 12 is suppressed and the cost is reduced. Each detector 12 is configured to transmit, together with the detection data, identification information of the steam trap 11 in which the detector 12 is installed and the date and time of detection.

  The on-site management device 14 has a browser function and can use a Web service for plant maintenance management provided by the analysis device 20. The on-site management device 14 collects the detection data from each detector 12, and the collected detection data is transmitted to the analysis device 20 via the network 30 as part of the Web service provided by the analysis device 20. The on-site management device 14 is not particularly limited as long as it can receive at least detection data from the detector 12 (repeater 13) and can use the service provided by the analysis device 20 via the network 30, for example, a PC Or any other computer.

  The analysis device 20 collects the detection data transmitted from the on-site management device 14 and analyzes it. Specifically, as shown in FIG. 2, the analysis apparatus 20 includes a communication unit 21 including a communication device that can transmit and receive data via a network 30, and a storage unit 22 including a hard disk and storing various data. And an arithmetic unit 23 that includes a CPU and performs various data processing. In FIG. 1, the analysis device 20 is connected to one steam plant 10 via the network 30. However, the analysis device 20 may be connected to a plurality of plants, and collects and analyzes detection data from each plant 10. It is also possible to do. The analysis device 20 provides a Web service for plant maintenance management, notifies the determination result by the determination unit 24 described later, and presents various data to the user according to the access from the user. Provide users with various functions related to plant maintenance and management.

  The storage unit 22 includes a database that stores the detection data of the detector 12 in association with the identification information of the steam trap 11. The database also stores determination results by the determination unit 24 described later. In the analysis device 20, an external server may be used as a storage unit, and detection data of the detector 12 may be stored in the external server.

  The calculation unit 23 is based on the determination unit 24 that analyzes the operating state of the steam trap 11 based on the detection data, the accuracy analysis unit 25 that determines the accuracy of the determination result in the determination unit 24, and the determination result in the accuracy analysis unit 25. And a determination reference correction unit 26 that corrects the determination reference in the determination unit 24.

  Based on the detection data, the determination unit 24 determines whether the operating state of the steam trap is normal, defective, or has a high probability of becoming defective thereafter. For example, first, it is determined whether or not the operating state is defective, and then, when it is determined that the operating state is not defective, it is further predicted whether or not the operating state of the steam trap 11 is normal or tends to be defective. Make a decision. Further, when determining the defect or the tendency to be defective, the determination unit 24 also determines the type of defect such as a toe defect or a defect defect.

  Whether or not the operating state is defective may be determined using a uniform criterion for each of temperature and ultrasonic vibration regardless of the installation position and use conditions of the steam trap 11. For example, detection data (temperature or super This is performed depending on whether the value of (sonic vibration) exceeds a predetermined threshold value (or whether it is below). Alternatively, two threshold values may be set, and when it is within the range of the two threshold values, it is determined that it is not defective, and when it is outside the range, it may be determined that it is defective.

  Since the range of values of various data such as temperature and ultrasonic vibration that can be taken when the operating state of the steam trap 11 is normal differs depending on the installation position and use conditions of the steam trap 11, the criterion for prediction determination Needs to be set for each steam trap 11 according to the installation position and use conditions of the steam trap 11. For this purpose, the determination unit 24 has a plurality of determination logics for the detected data, determines whether each determination logic is normal or has a tendency to become defective, and uses each weighting coefficient determined for each determination logic. These determination results are integrated, and prediction determination is performed based on the integrated determination results.

  That is, in the prediction determination, it may not be possible to accurately analyze whether or not the tendency is to be defective only by the determination logic of whether or not a certain threshold is exceeded as in the determination of whether or not it is defective. In addition, a determination logic that is effective for a certain steam trap 11 may not be effective at all for another steam trap 11. For this reason, in the prediction determination, a plurality of determination logics are used so that the prediction determination without omission can be performed. As the type of the determination logic, for example, logic for determining based on the value of the detected data, logic for determining based on the inclination of the detected data value, or logic for determining by combining the value of the detected data and the inclination thereof For example, the data to be determined is different. In addition, even when the data to be determined is the same, the determination logic in which the threshold value to be compared with the data is different between the determination logics is also included. In addition, how to determine the threshold value, such as whether the threshold value is a fixed value or a fluid value (for example, ±% of the average value for a certain period before the determination is set as the threshold value). Different judgment logics and judgment logics that take into account the duration such as the state in which the threshold value is exceeded for a certain period of time are also included.

  In the prediction determination, a weighting coefficient is determined for each determination logic, the determination results for each determination logic are integrated using the weighting coefficients, and the determination is finally performed based on the integration determination result. For example, the weighting coefficients of the same kind of determination results (normality, failure tendency) are integrated into a value of 1 according to a predetermined formula, and the value is used as an integrated determination result, and the prediction determination is performed on the target steam trap 11 based on the value. Do. For example, in the present embodiment, when the integrated determination result is obtained by adding only the weighting coefficients of the determination logic whose determination result tends to be defective, and the sum of the weighting coefficients (integrated determination result) is equal to or greater than the threshold value. It is determined that the steam trap 11 has a tendency to become defective. Thus, by determining the weighting coefficient for each determination logic, superiority or inferiority can be provided between the determination logic effective for the steam trap 11 and the determination logic that is not. Then, by adjusting the weighting coefficient for each steam trap 11, it is possible to perform prediction determination in accordance with the steam trap 11 for each steam trap 11.

  More specifically, for example, assuming that four determination logics A, B, C, and D are used in the prediction determination, the weighting coefficient is set so that the sum is 1 for each determination logic for a certain steam trap 11. a, b, c, and d are determined (that is, a + b + c + d = 1). Then, it is assumed that the determination data for the steam trap 11 is determined by each determination logic, the determination logics A and C are determined to be defective, and the determination logics B and D are determined to be normal. Then, a + c obtained by adding the weighting coefficients a and c of the determination logics A and C determined to be defective is set as the integrated determination result. Then, it is determined whether or not a + c exceeds a predetermined threshold value. If it exceeds the threshold value, it is determined as a defect tendency, and otherwise, it is determined as normal.

  As described above, the determination unit 24 determines the operating state of the steam trap 11. Then, when it is determined to be defective or a tendency to be deteriorated, a notification to that effect is sent to the on-site management device 14 (or a terminal for the manager) via the communication unit 21 and the network 30. This notification may be performed for each determination, or the operating state of the steam trap 11 is finally determined based on a plurality of determination results for a predetermined period (for example, one day), and is notified every predetermined period. May be performed. At this time, the storage unit 23 corresponds to the type of failure or failure tendency and the processing to be performed on the steam trap 11 for the failure or failure tendency (the type and method of work such as replacement or repair, and failure countermeasures described later). ) Are stored in association with each other, and when the determination unit 24 determines a defect or a tendency to be defective, the determination unit 24 also determines a process to be performed on the steam trap 11, and the defect together with a notification that the tendency is a defect. Notification of processing to be performed on the steam trap 11 that has been considered to be in the form of a conversion is also performed.

  As described above, in the monitoring system 1, detection data periodically detected by the detector 12 is transmitted to the analysis device 20, and the analysis device 20 determines the detection data, and the determination result is defective or defective. The steam trap is monitored by the analyzer 20 by notifying the steam plant 10 when the tendency is present.

  In the monitoring system 1, while the steam plant 10 is being monitored, the accuracy analysis unit 25 analyzes the accuracy of the prediction determination, and based on the determination result, the determination criterion correction unit 26 determines the prediction criterion (this embodiment) In the embodiment, the accuracy of prediction determination by the determination unit 24 is increased by correcting the weighting coefficient).

  That is, in this embodiment, the prediction determination is performed with high accuracy by appropriately determining the weighting coefficient for each determination logic for each steam trap 11. However, since it is necessary to determine this weighting coefficient empirically to some extent, in parallel with the monitoring of the steam plant 10, the determination of the prediction accuracy is sequentially improved.

  Therefore, the accuracy analysis unit 25 determines whether the prediction determination is correct or not based on the operating state of the steam trap 11 for a predetermined period after it is determined that the tendency to be defective. As an example, the accuracy analysis unit 25 analyzes the transition of the subsequent operating state of the steam trap 11 when it is determined as a tendency to be defective based on the detection data stored in the storage unit 22. In other words, after determining the tendency to be poor, whether or not the prediction determination is correct is determined depending on whether or not the steam trap 11 has become defective. Specifically, for example, as shown in FIG. 3, the accuracy analysis unit 25 determines that the prediction determination is incorrect when the operating state of the steam trap 11 has changed normally after it has been determined to be defective. . Moreover, as shown in FIG. 4, after it determines with a defect tendency, when the operating state of the steam trap 11 changes to defect, it determines with the prediction determination having been correct.

  Furthermore, in order to determine the accuracy of the prediction determination for the steam trap 11 efficiently, the accuracy analysis unit 25 performs a predetermined countermeasure (some trouble of the target device) on the steam trap 11 after it is determined to be a failure tendency. When the action state of the steam trap 11 is restored to normal by execution of a measure that can be eliminated and that can restore the operating state of the equipment to normal (hereinafter referred to as failure countermeasure), a prediction determination is made. Is determined to be correct. That is, even if the operating state of the steam trap 11 has transitioned to normal after it has been determined to be defective, the steam trap 11 is It means that it had a problem to be solved, and it can be said that the operation state subsequently became defective if no countermeasures against the defect were taken. For this reason, when the operation state of the target device is normally recovered by executing the countermeasure against the failure, it is determined that the prediction determination is correct, assuming that the operation state of the target device has transitioned to a failure if nothing is done. As a result, it is possible to use the result of prediction determination in the case of taking countermeasures for defects later in the accuracy analysis, so that the accuracy of prediction determination for the target device can be determined efficiently.

  In addition, it is determined that the prediction determination is correct, even if the countermeasure against the defect is executed, but the operation state of the target device subsequently changes to defective, because it has other defects that cannot be resolved by the countermeasure against the defect that has been performed. In addition, when the operating state recovers normally due to the countermeasure against the defect, the detected data tends to recover to the normal value promptly after the countermeasure against the defect and with a certain amount of change. Even if the operating status of the target device has been restored to normal after that, the detection data will start to recover to a normal value after a certain amount of time has elapsed since the time of countermeasures against defects, or the time to start recovery to normal Even if it is approximate to the time of the countermeasure against the failure, if the change is gentle, it is determined that the operating state is not normally recovered due to the countermeasure against the failure, and it is determined that the prediction determination is incorrect.

  Here, in the monitoring system 1, when the countermeasure against the failure is executed, at least the failure countermeasure is executed on the steam trap 11 and the date and time are stored in the storage unit 22. Then, when the accuracy analysis unit 25 reads this from the storage unit 22, the accuracy analysis unit 25 recognizes that the countermeasure against the defect has been executed. As a result, the above-described accuracy determination reflecting that the countermeasure against the defect has been taken is performed. For example, when the accuracy analysis unit 25 recognizes that a predetermined countermeasure has been executed for the steam trap 11 after it is determined that the tendency is to be defective, the accuracy analysis unit 25 recognizes that the steam trap 11 after the countermeasure against the failure. When the operating state of is changed normally, it is determined that the prediction determination is correct. Below, some methods for storing the countermeasure and the date and time of the steam trap 11 in the storage unit 22 will be described.

[First method]
First, each detector 12 is provided with a work input unit (not shown), which is performed through this. Specifically, each detector 12 is provided with a display unit and a work input unit (for example, a button type or a touch panel) capable of selecting the type of countermeasure against failure according to the display on the display unit. The work input unit selects and inputs a defect countermeasure to the work input unit, so that the type of the defect countermeasure is stored in a storage unit (not shown) of the detector 12 together with the date and time at that time. The detector 12 transmits the type of defect countermeasure and the date and time together with the detection data when transmitting the detection data (or promptly after that when there is an input to the work input unit). To do). That is, the detector 12 includes, in the detection data, the fact that the countermeasure against the failure has been performed when the countermeasure against the failure is performed on the steam trap 11. By configuring the detection unit 12 in this way, the storage unit 22 stores the fact that countermeasures against defects have been performed on the steam trap 11 and the date and time thereof in the following procedure.

  First, the countermeasure against the failure is that the operation state of the steam trap 11 from the analyzer 20 to the steam plant 10 side (the on-site management device 14 or the manager's terminal, etc.) is prone to be inferior. In response to notification of processing to be performed, it is executed by field workers. Then, after the field worker executes the countermeasure against the defect in the steam trap 11, by selecting and inputting the defect countermeasure executed in the work input unit, the date and time at that time and the type of the defect countermeasure are obtained as defect countermeasure execution data. Is saved. Thereafter, the detector 12 transmits the type of defect countermeasure and the date and time along with the detection data at the next transmission of the detection data. As the detection data is eventually stored in the storage unit 22 of the analyzer 20 via the on-site management device 14, the storage unit 22 also stores the steam trap 11 that has taken the countermeasure against the failure, the type and date and time of the countermeasure. Remembered. As a result, the accuracy analysis unit 25 reads from the storage unit 22 that the countermeasure against the defect has been taken for the steam trap 11 that has been determined to be defective, and enables the above-described accuracy determination to reflect this. Become.

  At this time, if the display unit of the work input unit is composed of cholesteric liquid crystal, the display can be continued without using power, and the work contents before that can be known at the next visit.

[Second method]
The second is performed through a recording terminal provided to a field worker who takes measures against defects. The recording terminal is communicably connected to the analyzer 20 via the network 30. The recording terminal includes a display unit, and the type of defect countermeasure can be selected via the display unit. Then, by selecting an appropriate measure and performing an input operation, the type of the measure is directly transmitted to the analyzer 20 together with the date and time at that time without using the detector 12 or the on-site management device 14. By this recording terminal, the fact that countermeasures for defects have been performed on the steam trap 11 and the date and time thereof are stored in the storage unit 22 as follows.

  First, defect countermeasures are executed by field workers in the same manner as described above. Then, after the field worker executes the defect countermeasures on the steam trap 11, the defect countermeasure execution data is input to the recording terminal, so that the date and time and the type of defect countermeasures at that time are directly analyzed as the defect countermeasure execution data. 20, and the storage unit 22 also stores the steam trap 11 that has taken the countermeasure against the defect, the type and date / time of the countermeasure. As a result, the accuracy analysis unit 25 reads from the storage unit 22 that the countermeasure against the defect has been taken for the steam trap 11 that has been determined to be defective, and enables the above-described accuracy determination to reflect this. Become.

  At this time, the recording terminal further enables communication with the detector 12 and the on-site management device 14, synchronizes the time between the recording terminal and the detector 12, and sets the operation setting of the detector 12 such as a detection interval. It is preferable to make it possible. For example, by synchronizing the time of the recording terminal and the detector 12, the time information included in the detection data transmitted from the detector 12 and the time information transmitted from the recording terminal are eliminated.

[Third method]
Third, the steam trap 11 is configured to automatically perform countermeasures against defects. For example, if the defect countermeasures to be taken can be automated by adding some mechanism, the automation mechanism can be provided to save the operator from having to go to the location of the steam trap 11. . As an automatic mechanism, a defect is detected by detecting a change in the state of the steam trap 11 and its surroundings, such as by taking measures against defects by deforming the temperature fluctuation member due to temperature change using a temperature fluctuation member that deforms in response to temperature change. As a response when a countermeasure is executed, or when the automation mechanism has a communication function and the steam trap 11 is determined to be defective, or when a notification of the deterioration tendency is given to the on-site management device 14 or the like. Alternatively, countermeasures against defects may be executed when an external instruction is given. The detection unit 12 is provided with a sensor that can detect that the countermeasure against the failure has been taken, and when the detection unit 12 detects that the countermeasure against the failure has been taken, the date and time at that time is indicated on the detector 12. Is stored in the storage unit, and is stored together with the detection data. As a result, the detection unit 12 detects a defect countermeasure that is automatically performed, the date and time is transmitted to the analyzer 20 together with the detection data, and the steam trap 11 that has performed the defect countermeasure and the type of the defect countermeasure are stored in the storage unit 22. The date and time are also stored. As a result, the accuracy analysis unit 25 reads from the storage unit 22 that the countermeasure against the defect has been taken for the steam trap 11 that has been determined to be defective, and enables the above-described accuracy determination to reflect this. Become.

  An example of an automatic mechanism will be described by taking as an example the case where a float-type steam trap 11 as shown in FIG. 6 is used. In the float type steam trap 11, the drain is discharged by the floating and descending of the float 111 accompanying the retention of the drain. That is, the float 111 is seated on the valve seat 112 when the drain is low, but the float 111 rises when the drain increases, and the drain is discharged from the discharge passage 113 opened in the valve seat 112. However, in such a float-type steam trap 11, foreign matter may adhere to the discharge passage 113, and in this case, the discharge passage 113 is clogged and the drain is not discharged normally (defect of the seal). On the other hand, in the steam trap 11, the operation member 114 for removing foreign matter in the discharge passage 113 and the operation member 114 are advanced toward the valve seat 112 at a low temperature, and the operation member 114 is moved to the valve seat 112 at a high temperature. A temperature responsive member (bimetal or the like) 115 for retreating is provided. As a result, when there is a defective seal, the drainage does not flow, so the temperature response member 115 becomes low temperature, and the operation member 114 automatically advances to the valve seat 112 side accordingly, and the foreign matter in the discharge path 113 is removed. . When the drain flows again, the temperature response member 115 becomes high temperature, and accordingly, the operation member 114 is automatically retracted relative to the valve seat 112 and returns to the original position. By doing so, for example, the float-type steam trap 11 can automatically take measures against defects.

  In the monitoring system 1, it is preferable to shorten the detection cycle of the operating state of the steam trap 11 by the detector 12 after executing countermeasures against defects. Thereby, the data of the operation state after the countermeasure against the failure can be acquired in small steps, and the transition of the operation state after the countermeasure against the failure can be known in detail. For example, in the first method, when an input to the work input unit is performed, the detection unit 12 may automatically shorten the detection cycle over a predetermined period in accordance with the input operation. In the second method, the recording terminal can communicate with the detector 12 and the detection cycle of each detector 12 can be set, and the worker sets the detection cycle by the recording terminal after countermeasures against defects. It may be sufficient (or an instruction to automatically shorten the detection cycle may be given to the detector 12 as the date and type of countermeasure against the failure are transmitted to the analyzer 20). In the third method, the detection cycle may be automatically shortened over a predetermined period when the detector 12 detects that the countermeasure against the failure has been executed.

  As described above, the accuracy analysis unit 25 determines the accuracy of the prediction determination. Then, the determination reference correction unit 26 corrects the weighting coefficient in the steam trap 11 in a direction in which the accuracy of the prediction determination is increased based on the determination result (prediction determination correctness / incorrectness). Specifically, when the prediction determination is correct, among the plurality of determination logics, a predetermined number of weighting coefficients of the determination logic determined to be defective are added, and a predetermined number of weighting coefficients of the determination logic determined to be normal are subtracted. To do. On the contrary, when the prediction determination is wrong, a certain number of weighting coefficients of the determination logic determined to be defective tendencies are subtracted from among a plurality of determination logics, and a certain number of weighting coefficients of the determination logic determined to be normal to add. By repeating this operation for each determination of the accuracy analysis unit 25, an inappropriate or unnecessary determination logic is deceived for the steam trap 11, and a determination criterion (weighting coefficient) centered on the determination logic suitable for the steam trap 11 is used. ) Will be formed. Thereby, the precision of prediction determination can be improved.

  As described above, a method of performing prediction determination using a plurality of determination logics and correcting the weighting coefficient set in each determination logic according to the accuracy is advantageous when, for example, a new determination logic is devised. In other words, since the new determination logic cannot actually perform the prediction determination with high accuracy, there is a concern about adopting it immediately as the logic for performing the prediction determination. On the other hand, when a plurality of determination logics are used as in the present embodiment, if a new determination logic is incorporated in a plurality of existing determination logics by reducing the weighting coefficient value or zero, the final determination logic is used. Data based on new determination logic can be collected without greatly affecting the determination result. If the new determination logic can accurately perform prediction determination, the weighting coefficient is corrected as described above, so that the value of the weighting coefficient for the new determination logic increases, and a new determination is made. Prediction determination centering on logic is performed. On the other hand, if the new determination logic does not accurately perform prediction determination, the weighting coefficient is corrected as described above, so that it is automatically deceived. As described above, according to the present embodiment, by incorporating a new determination logic into the determination logic used for prediction determination, the evaluation of the accuracy of the new determination logic and the adoption of the new determination logic in the prediction determination are automatically performed. Done and preferred.

  Instead of correcting the weighting coefficient for each determination of the accuracy analysis unit 25, the correctness / incorrectness of the prediction determination as the determination result of the accuracy analysis unit 25 is stored in the storage unit 22, and the determination reference correction unit 26 You may make it correct | amend a weighting coefficient based on the determination result for multiple times.

  Examples of advantages obtained by the monitoring system 1 to which the analysis system according to this embodiment is applied are listed below. First, the accuracy analysis unit 25 predicts and determines that the operation state of the target device has transitioned to a failure if nothing is done when the operation state of the target device is normally recovered by executing the countermeasure against the failure. Since it is possible to use the result of prediction determination in the case of taking countermeasures for defects later for accuracy analysis, it is possible to efficiently determine the accuracy of prediction determination for the target device.

  According to the determination criterion correction unit 26, the determination criterion in the prediction determination is corrected based on the result of the accuracy analysis, so that the accuracy of the prediction determination can be increased.

  Since the determination unit 24 performs prediction determination by integrating a plurality of determination logics, it is possible to perform predictive determination with no omission, for example, a sign that cannot be detected by a certain determination logic can be determined by another determination logic. And since the determination reference | standard correction | amendment part 26 correct | amends the weighting coefficient at the time of integrating a determination result based on the result of an accuracy analysis, it can raise the precision of prediction determination more flexibly.

  Since the detector 12 includes the detection data indicating that the defect countermeasure has been executed when the defect countermeasure is executed on the steam trap 11, if the defect countermeasure is executed on the steam trap 11, the defect countermeasure has been taken. This is stored in the storage unit 22 together with the detection data, so that it is possible to save time and trouble such as inputting separately to the storage unit 22 that the defect countermeasure has been taken.

  If the steam trap 11 is configured to automatically perform defect countermeasures on its own, it is possible to save labor for the worker to perform defect countermeasures on the steam trap 11.

[Other Embodiments]
Finally, other embodiments of the analysis system and the analysis method according to the present disclosure will be described. Note that the configurations disclosed in the following embodiments can be applied in combination with the configurations disclosed in other embodiments as long as no contradiction arises.

(1) In the above embodiment, the configuration using the steam trap 11 as the target device has been described as an example. However, embodiments of the present invention are not limited to this, and may be configured using other devices.

(2) In the above embodiment, the configuration in which the detector 12 detects the temperature and ultrasonic vibration of the target device has been described as an example. However, the embodiment of the present invention is not limited to this. What the detector 11 detects as the operating state of the target device is not limited to temperature and ultrasonic vibration, but can be appropriately changed according to the purpose, and detects one physical quantity or three or more physical quantities. There may be.

(3) In the above embodiment, the configuration in which the detection data from the detector 12 is transmitted to the analysis device 20 via the on-site management device 14 and the data management and various types of analysis are performed by the analysis device 20 has been described as an example. . However, the embodiment of the present invention is not limited to this. For example, the on-site management device 14 may be provided with the functions of the analysis device 20, and the on-site management device 14 may perform data management and various types of analysis. In addition, a configuration in which the functions of the analysis device 20 are distributed to a plurality of devices, such as performing data management with an external server instead of the storage unit 22 and causing the on-site management device 14 to execute the determination performed by the determination unit 24 It is also good.

(4) In the above-described embodiment, the determination unit 24 performs prediction determination based on a determination result obtained by integrating the determination results of the determination logics with the weighting coefficients determined in the determination logics using a plurality of determination logics. The configuration has been described as an example. However, the embodiment of the present invention is not limited to this. For example, prediction determination may be performed using a single determination logic, and a plurality of determination logics may be used instead of integrating these determination results based on each determination result (for example, all (For example, it is determined that a failure tendency is detected when the determination logic is a failure tendency with a predetermined number or more of determination logics).

(5) In said embodiment, the structure which the precision analysis part 25 analyzes the transition of the operating state of the subsequent steam trap 11 when it determines with a defect tendency based on the detection data memorize | stored in the memory | storage part 22. Described as an example. However, the embodiment of the present invention is not limited to this, and may be changed as appropriate as long as the correctness of the prediction determination is determined based on the operating state of the steam trap 11 for a predetermined period after it is determined that the tendency is to deteriorate. Is possible.

(6) In the above embodiment, the determination reference correction unit 26 has been described as an example of a configuration in which the weighting coefficient of each determination logic is increased or decreased by a certain number in accordance with the correctness of the prediction determination. However, the embodiment of the present invention is not limited to this, and a method for correcting the determination criterion for prediction determination can be appropriately selected.

(7) Regarding other configurations, it should be understood that the embodiments disclosed herein are illustrative in all respects and that the scope of the present invention is not limited thereby. Those skilled in the art will readily understand that modifications can be made as appropriate without departing from the spirit of the present invention. Accordingly, other embodiments modified without departing from the spirit of the present invention are naturally included in the scope of the present invention.

  The present invention can be used, for example, to analyze the accuracy of prediction determination regarding the operating state of a target device.

1 Monitoring system (analysis system)
11 Steam trap (target equipment)
12 detector 22 storage unit 24 determination unit 25 accuracy analysis unit 26 determination reference correction unit

In one aspect, the detector, when the front Stories measures with respect to the target device is executed, it is preferable to include the previous SL measures were performed on the detected data.

In one aspect, the target device is suitable when there are a configuration that performs a pre-Symbol measures to itself automatically.

Claims (6)

A detector for detecting the operating state of the target device;
Based on the detection data of the detector, a determination unit that performs a prediction determination as to whether the operation state of the target device is normal or has a high probability of becoming defective thereafter,
The correctness / incorrectness of the prediction determination is determined based on the operating state of the target device for a predetermined period after it has been determined to be defective, and the operating state of the target device has changed to normal after at least being determined to be defective And an accuracy analysis unit that determines that the prediction determination is incorrect,
When the accuracy analysis unit recognizes that a predetermined countermeasure has been performed on the target device after it has been determined to be defective, the accuracy analysis unit recognizes that the operation state of the target device is after the countermeasure. An analysis system that determines that the prediction determination is correct when it changes normally.   The analysis system according to claim 1, further comprising a determination reference correction unit that corrects a determination reference in the prediction determination based on a determination result in the accuracy analysis unit. The determination unit includes a plurality of determination logics for the detection data, determines whether each determination logic is normal or tends to be defective, and uses each weighting coefficient determined for each determination logic. The prediction results of logic are integrated, and the prediction determination is performed based on the integrated determination results.
The analysis system according to claim 2, wherein the determination reference correction unit corrects a weighting coefficient based on a determination result in the accuracy analysis unit.   The analysis system according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein, when the defect countermeasure is executed on the target device, the detector includes the detection data indicating that the defect countermeasure has been executed. .   The analysis system according to claim 1, wherein the target device is configured to automatically execute the defect countermeasure on itself. A detection step for detecting the operating state of the target device;
Based on the detection result, a prediction determination step for performing a prediction determination as to whether the operation state of the target device is normal or has a high probability of becoming defective thereafter, and
The correctness / incorrectness of the prediction determination is determined based on the operating state of the target device for a predetermined period after it has been determined to be defective, and the operating state of the target device has changed to normal after at least being determined to be defective And a correct / incorrect determination step for determining that the prediction determination is incorrect,
In the correctness / incorrectness determination step, when the operation state of the target device is changed normally by executing a predetermined countermeasure on the target device after being determined to be defective, it is determined that the prediction determination is correct Analysis method to do.

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