JPWO2005022198A1 - Earthquake prediction method and system - Google Patents

Earthquake prediction method and system Download PDF

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JPWO2005022198A1
JPWO2005022198A1 JP2005513422A JP2005513422A JPWO2005022198A1 JP WO2005022198 A1 JPWO2005022198 A1 JP WO2005022198A1 JP 2005513422 A JP2005513422 A JP 2005513422A JP 2005513422 A JP2005513422 A JP 2005513422A JP WO2005022198 A1 JPWO2005022198 A1 JP WO2005022198A1
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magnetic field
data
earthquake
ground current
earthquake prediction
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朋也 四方田
朋也 四方田
敏夫 吉田
敏夫 吉田
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Necモバイリング株式会社
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Priority to PCT/JP2004/011818 priority patent/WO2005022198A1/en
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G01MEASURING; TESTING
    • G01VGEOPHYSICS; GRAVITATIONAL MEASUREMENTS; DETECTING MASSES OR OBJECTS
    • G01V1/00Seismology; Seismic or acoustic prospecting or detecting
    • G01V1/008Earthquake measurement or prediction

Abstract

The vehicle 1-1 and the ship 1-2 are equipped with a magnetic field sensor 11, a GPS position detector 12, and a data transmitter 13, and move in the observation area to transfer the magnetic field data and position data of each point to the earthquake prediction center 4. Send. The earth current induced magnetic field estimation unit 43 of the earthquake prediction center 4 estimates the earth current induced magnetic field based on the received and collected observation data. The ground current estimation unit 44 estimates the ground current based on the estimation result of the ground current induced magnetic field. The ground current induced magnetic field strength fluctuation pattern generation unit 45 generates a pattern indicating the temporal variation of the ground current induced magnetic field strength. The earthquake prediction unit 46 analyzes the ground current distribution state and the variation pattern of the ground current induced magnetic field strength to estimate the epicenter region, seismic intensity, and earthquake occurrence time.

Description

  The present invention relates to an earthquake prediction method and system, and more particularly, to an earthquake prediction method and system for performing earthquake prediction by observing a magnetic field at each point in an observation area.

  The Japanese archipelago located on the Fire Mountains is feared for the occurrence of large-scale earthquake disasters throughout the country, including the Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai. In order to protect people's lives and property from earthquake disasters, it is necessary to take appropriate measures by earthquake prediction together with the recovery system after the disaster. To this end, effective earthquake prediction with low cost and high accuracy is required. There is an urgent need to establish technology.

  Many cases have been reported since early times, such as "catfish rampage" and "mouse run around" as precursors of earthquakes. In addition, several days before the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake (January 1995), radio anomalies were observed by local amateur radio operators, and so-called “earthquake clouds” were witnessed by many people.

  Such radio wave anomalies and generation of seismic clouds are thought to have some influence from the earth current generated by the piezo effect due to the collision of the plates.

  Further, it is disclosed to predict an earthquake by suspending a permanent magnet with a thread and observing the amount of rotation (for example, see Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 11-258353).

  By the way, in order to make a highly accurate earthquake prediction by observing changes in the geoelectric current, it is necessary to install a large number of detailed observation facilities over a wide area of the observation area. For example, an observation system that covers several hundred km square is required in the Tokai area alone.

  However, both the national and local governments have been faced with financial difficulties in recent years, and it has become a heavy burden to install a large number of observation facilities, and it is also difficult to realize from the viewpoint of maintenance and operation costs of the observation system.

  An object of the present invention is to provide an earthquake prediction method and system capable of accurately predicting an earthquake by collecting magnetic field data at a large number of points in an observation area at low cost and in a short time.

  According to the earthquake prediction method of the present invention, the ground current induced magnetic field is estimated by observing the magnetic field at each point in the observation area and the ground current is estimated, and the state of the ground current in the observation area and the temporal variation of the ground current are estimated. It is characterized by estimating seismic source area, earthquake occurrence time and seismic intensity.

  In addition, the magnetic field noise component at the observation point is removed from the observed magnetic field, the amount of deviation between the magnetic field direction at the observation point from which the magnetic field noise component has been removed and the true north direction is obtained, and the magnetic field noise component is removed. The earth current induced magnetic field is estimated from a vector difference between the observed magnetic field and the geomagnetic vector corrected to true north.

  Further, the estimated earth current induced magnetic field is plotted on a map, points on the map where anomalies are recognized with respect to the earth magnetism are connected, the earth current is estimated by the right-handed screw rule, and the estimated earth A region where current is concentrated is estimated as the source region.

  Furthermore, by collecting the past data of the earth current induced magnetic field strength at a specific observation point and generating the earth current induced magnetic field strength fluctuation pattern showing the temporal variation, it is compared with the accumulated past earth current induced magnetic field strength fluctuation pattern. By collating, the earthquake occurrence time and the seismic intensity are estimated.

  The earthquake prediction system of the present invention transmits a magnetic field sensor that outputs magnetic field data indicating the direction and strength of magnetic field lines, a GPS position detector that receives radio waves from GPS satellites and outputs position data indicating the position, and transmits the data. A mobile object such as a vehicle or a ship equipped with a data transmitter, and an earthquake prediction center that collects the data of each point that the mobile object moves and transmits in the observation area and predicts an earthquake are provided.

  The earthquake prediction center also stores and stores various data such as data and map data received by the data receiving unit that receives data transmitted from the mobile body via a communication network and an antenna. Data storage unit, a ground current induction magnetic field estimation unit for estimating a ground current induction magnetic field based on the data stored and accumulated in the data storage unit and map data, and a ground current estimation based on the estimated ground current induction magnetic field A ground current estimator, a ground current induced magnetic field strength variation pattern generator that generates a variation pattern by counting temporal transitions of the ground current induced magnetic field strength, and the estimated ground current and the ground current induced magnetic field strength. It has an earthquake prediction part that analyzes the fluctuation pattern of the earthquake and estimates the epicenter area, seismic intensity, and earthquake occurrence time.

  Further, when the moving body includes a car navigation system, the position data of the car navigation system may be used instead of the GPS position detector.

  In addition, the magnetic field sensor and the communication device are attached to an existing fixed structure selected in advance in the observation area, and the communication device transmits the magnetic field data output from the magnetic field sensor and information indicating the installation position via the existing communication network. You may make it transmit to the said earthquake prediction center.

  Furthermore, the magnetic field line sensor and the GPS position detector may be incorporated in a mobile phone or the like, and the observation data may be transmitted to the earthquake prediction center using its own communication function.

  Still further, the existing fixed structure may be provided with an acceleration sensor, and magnetic field data may be transmitted when the acceleration sensor detects earthquake motion, or an acceleration sensor may be provided to the mobile body or the mobile phone. The magnetic field data may be transmitted when the acceleration sensor detects that the vehicle is stopped for a certain time or longer.

  According to the present invention, a magnetic field sensor, a GPS position detector, and a data transmitter are mounted on a vehicle or ship traveling in the observation area, and magnetic field data at each point in the observation area is collected at the earthquake prediction center. By estimating and analyzing the earth current induced magnetic field and earth current based on the magnetic field data, it is possible to accurately predict earthquakes at low cost without installing observation equipment at many points.

  In addition, magnetic field sensors are installed in pre-existing structures in the observation area to transmit magnetic data to the earthquake prediction center via an existing communication network, or magnetic field sensors are installed in mobile phones or the like to transmit magnetic data. By transmitting to the earthquake prediction center, observation data at a large number of points in the observation area can be collected at a low equipment cost, and earthquakes can be accurately predicted.

  In addition, an accelerometer is installed along with the magnetic field sensor, and when the accelerometer detects earthquake motion, the observation data is automatically transmitted, so that magnetic field data can be collected at the time of the foreshock before the mainshock. Effective observation data can be obtained.

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an embodiment of the present invention.

[FIG. 2] A diagram showing a ground current model in the vicinity of the hypocenter region before the occurrence of the earthquake.

FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an earthquake prediction operation of the earthquake prediction center 4 shown in FIG.

FIG. 4 is a diagram showing estimation of a ground current induction magnetic field.

FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of estimating a ground current.

FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of the observed ground current induced magnetic field and ground current.

FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of the observed ground current induced magnetic field and ground current.

FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of the observed ground current induced magnetic field and ground current.

FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an example of a fluctuation pattern of the ground current induction magnetic field intensity.

  Next, the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

  FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an embodiment of the present invention, using a moving body 1 such as a vehicle or a ship that can move on land or sea, or an existing fixed structure 2 selected in advance in an observation area. This shows an earthquake prediction system that collects observation data at many points in the observation area and estimates the epicenter and the time of occurrence.

  Here, a moving body 1 that includes a magnetic field sensor 11 and a GPS position detector 12 and transmits observation data to the earthquake prediction center 4, an existing fixed structure 2 to which the magnetic field sensor 11 and the communication device 14 are attached, and A communication network 3 for transmitting observation data to the earthquake prediction center 4 and an earthquake prediction center 4 for predicting earthquakes based on observation data at a number of points in the observation area.

  The moving body 1 is a vehicle 1-1 or a ship 1-2 that moves within an observation area, and receives a magnetic field line sensor 11 that outputs magnetic field data indicating the direction and strength of magnetic field lines, and a radio wave of a GPS satellite. A GPS position detector 12 for outputting data and a data transmitter 13 for transmitting observation data to the earthquake prediction center 4 are mounted.

  In addition, since the position data of a car navigation system can be utilized when the mobile body carries the car navigation system, the GPS position detector 12 can be deleted.

  Moreover, observation data may be transmitted in real time, or a data storage device may be provided and recorded therein. Needless to say, the observation data includes data indicating the observation time in addition to the magnetic field data and the position data.

  Further, if the observation data is automatically transmitted when the predetermined observation position and time are reached, the human burden can be reduced.

  In addition, observation data can be obtained effectively if the observation area is meshed and observed. Mesh traveling is a traveling method that is frequently used in radio wave surveys of mobile phones, etc. Prepare a map of the area you are traveling in advance, draw a line in a mesh, and travel along the line in a mesh It is.

  Examples of the existing fixed structure 2 include, for example, electricity / gas / water meters installed at homes and companies, vending machines provided along roads, power / communication line pillars and traffic signals. The operation display devices installed at the pillars and bus stops, and other mobile phone base stations and PHS base station buildings are also conceivable.

  And the communication apparatus 14 transmits the magnetic field data which the magnetic force line sensor 11 outputs by wire or radio | wireless to the earthquake prediction center 4 with the information which shows an installation position.

  In this case, it may be transmitted in real time or automatically when a predetermined observation time is reached.

  If the existing fixed structure 2 is a power / communication line pillar, a traffic signal pillar, a mobile phone base station, a PHS base station, or the like, a data transmission path can be easily secured. In addition, the cost can be reduced by using an existing wireless communication means such as a disaster prevention wireless system.

  In the case of an electricity / gas / water meter, etc., the automatic meter reading system may be used for transmission. Moreover, in the case of the operation display apparatus installed in the bus stop, you may make it transmit using a vehicle operation management system. Further, in the case of a vending machine, a system for transmitting sales / inventory information of the vending machine together with magnetic field data may be constructed.

  The communication network 3 is an existing communication network such as a mobile communication network including a base station or a satellite communication network via a communication satellite.

  The earthquake prediction center 4 includes a data reception unit 41 that receives observation data via the communication network 3 and an antenna, a data storage unit 42 that stores and stores various data such as observation data and map data, and a data storage unit 42 that holds the data. A ground current induction magnetic field estimation unit 43 that estimates a ground current induction magnetic field based on the accumulated observation data and map data, a ground current estimation unit 44 that estimates a ground current based on the estimation result of the ground current induction magnetic field, and a ground current induction A ground current induced magnetic field strength fluctuation pattern generation unit 45 that aggregates temporal changes in magnetic field strength to generate a fluctuation pattern, and analyzes the ground current estimation result and the ground current induced magnetic field strength fluctuation pattern to analyze the source region, seismic intensity, and And an earthquake prediction unit 46 for estimating an earthquake occurrence time.

  FIG. 2 is a diagram showing a ground current model in the vicinity of the hypocenter region before the occurrence of the earthquake.

  Here, the plate A and the plate B are moved and pressed in a direction in which they collide with each other. A point C where the pressure is locally increased in the boundary surface between the plate A and the plate B is defined as an epicenter region.

  In this epicenter C, a strong pressure force is concentrated and it is in an extremely high pressure state, and the pressure gradually increases as the plate moves. In this state, a voltage due to the piezo effect is generated in the hypocenter region C, and it is assumed that charges in the rock mass flow into the hypocenter region C.

  It is assumed that the flow of electric charge (geoelectric current) in the rock mass flows like a river from each direction following a place with good conductivity in the rock mass. Usually, most of the epicenter area is in the ground, so it is assumed that a lot of electric charge flows in the ground and rarely flows on the ground surface.

  Immediately before the collapse of the rock mass in hypocenter area C, it is assumed that the earth current increases at an accelerated rate, and at the same time as the rock mass collapse, the piezoelectric voltage disappears and the earth current also disappears instantaneously as the pressure is released.

  As described above, since the earth current is generated and changed as a precursor of the earthquake, the earthquake can be predicted by observing the direction and intensity of the earth current.

  By the way, it is difficult to detect ground current directly because it does not flow on the ground surface. However, since an induced magnetic field (ground current induced magnetic field) is generated on the ground due to the ground current, the direction and strength of the ground magnetic field are detected. This makes it possible to estimate the direction and strength of the earth current induced magnetic field.

  The simplest method for observing the earth current induced magnetic field is observing the direction indicated by the magnetic needle. Because the magnetic needle is affected by the earth current induced magnetic field, it shows an orientation different from the normal earth magnetism direction, so it is the least expensive and simple in an environment where there is no magnetic field other than the earth magnetic field and the earth current induced magnetic field. Observable.

  The second method enables observation with higher accuracy than a magnetic needle by using a magnetic field line sensor.

  The third method can achieve higher accuracy by combining a magnetic field sensor and a GPS position detector.

  In addition, data effective for earthquake prediction can be obtained by combining a magnetic needle and GPS position detection. In other words, it is well known that the north indicated by the magnetic needle does not coincide with the true north, and is shifted little by little every year. Therefore, true north is obtained by a GPS satellite, and data effective for earthquake prediction can be obtained by constantly observing the difference from the north indicated by the magnetic needle.

  By the way, in order to improve the accuracy of the observation data of the earth current induced magnetic field, the magnetic field noise component generated due to a cause other than the earth current must be removed from the observation data.

The main magnetic field noise generated due to causes other than the ground current is as follows.
(1) A magnetic field generated due to a direct current flowing through an overhead line at an observation point close to a train line. This change in magnetic field is characterized by short-term slight fluctuations that become stronger as the train approaches and weaken as it moves away.
(2) Geomagnetic disturbance due to the Dellinger phenomenon associated with solar activity. It has the characteristic of occurring and disappearing in a short time.
(3) Magnetic field generated by underground metal veins. It is characterized by a constant level at all times.

  In order to remove the magnetic field noise component generated due to causes other than the earth current, the magnetic field noise component is extracted by observing the magnetic field for a certain period at a certain observation point, analyzing the characteristics of the fluctuation pattern, Can be removed by software.

  FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an earthquake prediction operation of the earthquake prediction center 4.

  First, the ground current induced magnetic field estimation unit 43 removes the magnetic field noise component at the observation point from the observed magnetic field data (step 101), and then at the observation point from which the magnetic field noise component has been removed as shown in FIG. (Step 102), the earth current induced magnetic field N2 is determined by the vector difference between the observed magnetic field N1 from which the magnetic field noise component has been removed and the geomagnetic vector N corrected to the true north. Estimate (step 103). And it plots on a map as shown in FIG. 5 (step 104).

  Next, as shown in FIG. 5, the ground current estimation unit 44 connects the points on the map where anomaly is recognized with respect to the geomagnetism and estimates the ground current by the right-handed screw law (step 105).

  The ground current induced magnetic field strength fluctuation pattern generation unit 45 collects the past data of the ground current induced magnetic field strength at a specific observation point and generates a ground current induced magnetic field strength fluctuation pattern indicating temporal variation (step 106).

  The earthquake prediction unit 46 analyzes the ground current induced magnetic field intensity fluctuation pattern and the distribution of the ground current estimated by the ground current estimation unit 44, and searches for an unnatural region such as a concentration of the ground current to estimate the source region. . In addition, the earthquake occurrence time and the seismic intensity are estimated by comparing and comparing the generated ground current induced magnetic field strength fluctuation pattern with the past ground current induced magnetic field strength fluctuation pattern (step 107).

  For example, as shown in FIG. 6, when the ground current induced magnetic field and the ground current are plotted on the map of the observation area, the epicenter is estimated to be a place where the ground current is concentrated in the observation area, and the shallow area directly below the observation area. Can estimate magnitude-scale earthquakes.

  In addition, as shown in FIG. 7, when the ground current induced magnetic field and the ground current are plotted on the map of the observation area, the hypocenter area can be estimated as a shallow layer near the outside of the observation area.

  In addition, as shown in FIG. 8, when the ground current induced magnetic field and the ground current are plotted on the map of the observation area, the epicenter is estimated as a distant shallow layer outside the observation area or a plurality of nearby shallow layers. it can.

  FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an example of a fluctuation pattern of the ground current induction magnetic field strength. Here, the current-induced magnetic field strength is a relative value.

  Generally, in the vicinity of the elastic limit point just before the collapse of the rock in the epicenter, the ground current rises rapidly with the rapid increase in piezo voltage. Then, after stagnation of the ground current due to saturation of the piezo voltage just before plastic deformation is observed, the piezo voltage disappears with the pressure release at the same time as the rock collapse, and the ground current also disappears instantaneously.

  In addition, the temporal transition of the geoelectric current is uniquely specified by the rock mass plasticity and the relative vector velocity between the plates, and is independent of the distance from the observation point to the hypocenter region. Therefore, the temporal transition of the ground current can be estimated by observing the temporal transition of the earth current induced magnetic field intensity by the fixed point observation.

  In this case, if the past earth current induced magnetic field intensity fluctuation pattern around the source area that occurs on the specific same plate boundary surface is accumulated, the earth current induced magnetic field intensity change until immediately before the plastic deformation (earthquake occurrence) of the source area. It is possible to extract a pattern. Therefore, if the plate of the estimated seismic source region under observation can be identified, the estimated time and seismic intensity until the rock mass plastic deformation (earthquake occurrence) can be estimated by comparing with the past geocurrent-induced magnetic field strength fluctuation pattern.

  In addition, the transition point of the curve function indicating the fluctuation of the earth current induced magnetic field strength can be set, and the time to the rock mass plastic deformation (earthquake occurrence) can be estimated based on the earth current induced magnetic field strength near the elastic limit point of the rock mass. In addition, the maximum value that the earth current induced magnetic field strength reaches can be estimated, and the seismic intensity can be equivalently estimated according to the maximum value.

  In the above description, a magnetic field sensor is provided in a vehicle, a ship, or an existing fixed structure so as to collect magnetic field data at each point in the observation area. However, as another embodiment, a mobile phone, a mobile terminal, etc. In addition, a magnetic field sensor and a GPS position detector may be incorporated in the sensor, and observation data may be transmitted using its own communication function. In this case, if the observation data is automatically transmitted periodically and the communication fee is free, observation data of a wide range of points can be collected without placing a burden on the user.

  In addition, if an accelerometer is installed together with a magnetic field sensor on an existing fixed structure and the acceleration sensor detects earthquake motion, the observation data is automatically transmitted. Therefore, it is possible to obtain effective data for earthquake prediction.

  In addition, an acceleration sensor is incorporated in a moving body such as a vehicle or a ship, a mobile phone, a portable terminal, etc. together with a magnetic field sensor. You may make it transmit.

  As described above, collect magnetic field data at many points in the observation area, estimate the ground current induced magnetic field, estimate the ground current based on the estimated ground current induced magnetic field, and analyze these estimation results Therefore, it is possible to predict earthquakes with high accuracy.

Claims (12)

  1. Observe the magnetic field at each point in the observation area to estimate the earth current induced magnetic field, estimate the earth current, analyze the state of the earth current in the observation area and the temporal variation of the earth current, and An earthquake prediction method characterized by estimating occurrence time and seismic intensity.
  2. The magnetic field noise component at the observation point was removed from the observed magnetic field, the amount of deviation between the magnetic field direction at the observation point from which the magnetic field noise component was removed and the true north direction was obtained, and the magnetic field noise component was removed 2. The earthquake prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the earth current induced magnetic field is estimated from a vector difference between an observed magnetic field and a true north corrected geomagnetic vector.
  3. 2. The estimated earth current induced magnetic field is plotted on a map, points on the map where anomalies are recognized with respect to the earth magnetism are connected, and the earth current is estimated by the right-handed screw law. Or the earthquake prediction method of 2 description.
  4. The earthquake prediction method according to claim 1, 2 or 3, wherein an area where the estimated geocurrent is concentrated is estimated as the epicenter area.
  5. Collecting past data of the earth current induced magnetic field strength at a specific observation point, generating a ground current induced magnetic field strength fluctuation pattern showing temporal variation, and comparing it with the accumulated past earth current induced magnetic field strength fluctuation pattern. The earthquake prediction method according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the earthquake occurrence time and seismic intensity are estimated by the following.
  6. A vehicle equipped with a magnetic field sensor that outputs magnetic field data indicating the direction and intensity of magnetic field lines, a GPS position detector that receives radio waves from a GPS satellite and outputs position data indicating the position, and a data transmitter that transmits the data A seismic prediction system comprising: a moving body such as a ship or a ship; and an earthquake prediction center that collects the data of each point that the moving body moves and transmits in an observation area to predict an earthquake.
  7. The earthquake prediction center includes a data receiving unit that receives data transmitted from the mobile body via a communication network and an antenna, and data that holds and stores various data such as data and map data received by the data receiving unit. A storage unit, a ground current induction magnetic field estimation unit for estimating a ground current induction magnetic field based on the data stored and accumulated in the data storage unit and map data, and a ground for estimating a ground current based on the estimated ground current induction magnetic field. A current estimator, a ground current induced magnetic field strength variation pattern generating unit that aggregates temporal transitions of the ground current induced magnetic field strength to generate a variation pattern, and the estimated ground current and variation of the ground current induced magnetic field strength The earthquake prediction system according to claim 6, further comprising an earthquake prediction unit that analyzes a pattern to estimate a source region, a seismic intensity, and an earthquake occurrence time.
  8. The earthquake prediction system according to claim 6, wherein, when the moving body includes a car navigation system, the position data of the car navigation system is used instead of the GPS position detector.
  9. The magnetic field sensor and the communication device are attached to an existing fixed structure selected in advance in the observation area, and the communication device transmits the magnetic field data output from the magnetic field sensor and information indicating the installation position via the existing communication network to the earthquake. The earthquake prediction system according to claim 6, wherein the earthquake prediction system is transmitted to a prediction center.
  10. The earthquake prediction system according to claim 6, wherein the magnetic field sensor and the GPS position detector are incorporated in a mobile phone or the like, and observation data is transmitted to the earthquake prediction center using its own communication function.
  11. The earthquake prediction system according to claim 9, further comprising an acceleration sensor, wherein the magnetic field data is transmitted when the acceleration sensor detects earthquake motion.
  12. The earthquake prediction system according to claim 6 or 10, further comprising an acceleration sensor, wherein the magnetic field data is transmitted when the acceleration sensor detects that the vehicle has been stopped for a certain period of time.
JP2005513422A 2003-08-27 2004-08-18 Earthquake prediction method and system Pending JPWO2005022198A1 (en)

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