JPWO2005022198A1 - Earthquake prediction method and system - Google Patents
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Abstract
車両１−１・船舶１−２は、磁力線センサ１１およびＧＰＳ位置検出器１２並びにデータ送信器１３を搭載し、観測地域内を移動して各地点の磁界データおよび位置データを地震予知センタ４へ送信する。地震予知センタ４の地電流誘導磁界推定部４３は、受信収集された観測データに基づき地電流誘導磁界を推定する。地電流推定部４４は、地電流誘導磁界の推定結果に基づき地電流を推定する。地電流誘導磁界強度変動パターン生成部４５は、地電流誘導磁界強度の経時変動を示すパターンを生成する。地震予知部４６は、地電流の分布状態および地電流誘導磁界強度の変動パターンを分析して震源域、震度および地震発生時期を推定する。The vehicle 1-1 and the ship 1-2 are equipped with a magnetic field sensor 11, a GPS position detector 12, and a data transmitter 13, and move in the observation area to transfer the magnetic field data and position data of each point to the earthquake prediction center 4. Send. The earth current induced magnetic field estimation unit 43 of the earthquake prediction center 4 estimates the earth current induced magnetic field based on the received and collected observation data. The ground current estimation unit 44 estimates the ground current based on the estimation result of the ground current induced magnetic field. The ground current induced magnetic field strength fluctuation pattern generation unit 45 generates a pattern indicating the temporal variation of the ground current induced magnetic field strength. The earthquake prediction unit 46 analyzes the ground current distribution state and the variation pattern of the ground current induced magnetic field strength to estimate the epicenter region, seismic intensity, and earthquake occurrence time.
Description
本発明は地震予知方法およびそのシステムに関し、特に観測地域内の各地点の磁界を観測して地震予知を行う地震予知方法およびそのシステムに関する。 The present invention relates to an earthquake prediction method and system, and more particularly, to an earthquake prediction method and system for performing earthquake prediction by observing a magnetic field at each point in an observation area.
火山脈上に位置する日本列島は東海、東南海、南海はじめ全国各地で大規模な地震災害の発生が危惧されている。地震災害から国民の生命・財産を守るためには被災後の復旧システムとともに地震予知により適切な対策を講じることが必要であり、このためには、低コストでかつ精度の高い効果的な地震予知技術の確立が急務である。 The Japanese archipelago located on the Fire Mountains is feared for the occurrence of large-scale earthquake disasters throughout the country, including the Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai. In order to protect people's lives and property from earthquake disasters, it is necessary to take appropriate measures by earthquake prediction together with the recovery system after the disaster. To this end, effective earthquake prediction with low cost and high accuracy is required. There is an urgent need to establish technology.
昔から地震の前兆現象として「ナマズが暴れる」「ネズミが駆け回る」などの事例が数多く伝えられている。また、阪神淡路大震災（平成７年１月）の数日前から地元アマチュア無線家によって電波異常が観測されたり、いわゆる『地震雲』が多くの人々によって目撃されている。 Many cases have been reported since early times, such as "catfish rampage" and "mouse run around" as precursors of earthquakes. In addition, several days before the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake (January 1995), radio anomalies were observed by local amateur radio operators, and so-called “earthquake clouds” were witnessed by many people.
このような電波異常や地震雲の発生は、プレートの衝突によってピエゾ効果により発生する地電流が何らかの影響を及ぼしていると考えられている。 Such radio wave anomalies and generation of seismic clouds are thought to have some influence from the earth current generated by the piezo effect due to the collision of the plates.
また、永久磁石を糸で吊るしてその回動量を観測することにより、地震を予知することが開示されている（例えば、特開平１１−２５８３５３号公報参照。）。 Further, it is disclosed to predict an earthquake by suspending a permanent magnet with a thread and observing the amount of rotation (for example, see Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 11-258353).
ところで、地電流の変化を観測して高精度の地震予知をするためには、観測地域の広範囲にわたり木目細かく多数の観測設備を設置しなければならない。例えば東海地区だけでも数百ｋｍ四方をカバーする観測体制が必要になる。 By the way, in order to make a highly accurate earthquake prediction by observing changes in the geoelectric current, it is necessary to install a large number of detailed observation facilities over a wide area of the observation area. For example, an observation system that covers several hundred km square is required in the Tokai area alone.
しかし、国・自治体とも財政難の昨今、多数の観測設備を設置することは大きな負担となり、また、観測体制の維持運用コスト面からも実現が困難であるという問題点を有している。 However, both the national and local governments have been faced with financial difficulties in recent years, and it has become a heavy burden to install a large number of observation facilities, and it is also difficult to realize from the viewpoint of maintenance and operation costs of the observation system.
本発明の目的は、観測地域内の多数の地点における磁界データを低コストかつ短時間に収集して精度よく地震を予知できる地震予知方法およびそのシステムを提供することにある。 An object of the present invention is to provide an earthquake prediction method and system capable of accurately predicting an earthquake by collecting magnetic field data at a large number of points in an observation area at low cost and in a short time.
本発明の地震予知方法は、観測地域内の各地点の磁界を観測して地電流誘導磁界を推定すると共に地電流を推定し、前記観測地域内の地電流の状態および地電流の時間的変動を分析して震源域、地震発生時期および震度を推定することを特徴とする。 According to the earthquake prediction method of the present invention, the ground current induced magnetic field is estimated by observing the magnetic field at each point in the observation area and the ground current is estimated, and the state of the ground current in the observation area and the temporal variation of the ground current are estimated. It is characterized by estimating seismic source area, earthquake occurrence time and seismic intensity.
また、観測された磁界から観測地点での磁界ノイズ成分を除去し、前記磁界ノイズ成分が除去された観測地点での磁界方位と真の北の方位とのずれ量を求め、前記磁界ノイズ成分が除去された観測磁界と真の北に補正された地磁気ベクトルとのベクトル差により前記地電流誘導磁界を推定することを特徴とする。 In addition, the magnetic field noise component at the observation point is removed from the observed magnetic field, the amount of deviation between the magnetic field direction at the observation point from which the magnetic field noise component has been removed and the true north direction is obtained, and the magnetic field noise component is removed. The earth current induced magnetic field is estimated from a vector difference between the observed magnetic field and the geomagnetic vector corrected to true north.
更に、前記推定された地電流誘導磁界を地図上にプロットし、地磁気に対して異常が認められる地図上のポイントを繋ぎ合わせると共に右ねじの法則により前記地電流を推定し、前記推定された地電流が集中する領域を前記震源域として推定することを特徴とする。 Further, the estimated earth current induced magnetic field is plotted on a map, points on the map where anomalies are recognized with respect to the earth magnetism are connected, the earth current is estimated by the right-handed screw rule, and the estimated earth A region where current is concentrated is estimated as the source region.
また更に、特定の観測地点における地電流誘導磁界強度の過去のデータを集めて経時変動を示す地電流誘導磁界強度変動パターンを生成し、蓄積されている過去の地電流誘導磁界強度変動パターンと比較照合することにより、前記地震発生時期および震度を推定することを特徴とする。 Furthermore, by collecting the past data of the earth current induced magnetic field strength at a specific observation point and generating the earth current induced magnetic field strength fluctuation pattern showing the temporal variation, it is compared with the accumulated past earth current induced magnetic field strength fluctuation pattern. By collating, the earthquake occurrence time and the seismic intensity are estimated.
本発明の地震予知システムは、磁力線の方位および強さを示す磁界データを出力する磁力線センサとＧＰＳ衛星の電波を受信して位置を示す位置データを出力するＧＰＳ位置検出器と前記データを送信するデータ送信器とを搭載した車両や船舶等の移動体と、前記移動体が観測地域内を移動して送信する各地点の前記データを収集して地震予知する地震予知センタとを備えている。 The earthquake prediction system of the present invention transmits a magnetic field sensor that outputs magnetic field data indicating the direction and strength of magnetic field lines, a GPS position detector that receives radio waves from GPS satellites and outputs position data indicating the position, and transmits the data. A mobile object such as a vehicle or a ship equipped with a data transmitter, and an earthquake prediction center that collects the data of each point that the mobile object moves and transmits in the observation area and predicts an earthquake are provided.
また、前記地震予知センタは、通信網およびアンテナを介して前記移動体から送信されたデータを受信するデータ受信部と、このデータ受信部により受信されたデータや地図データ等の各種データを保持蓄積するデータ記憶部と、このデータ記憶部に保持蓄積されたデータおよび地図データに基づき地電流誘導磁界を推定する地電流誘導磁界推定部と、推定された前記地電流誘導磁界に基づき地電流を推定する地電流推定部と、前記地電流誘導磁界強度の時間的推移を集計して変動パターンを生成する地電流誘導磁界強度変動パターン生成部と、推定された前記地電流および前記地電流誘導磁界強度の変動パターンを分析して震源域、震度および地震発生時期を推定する地震予知部とを有している。 The earthquake prediction center also stores and stores various data such as data and map data received by the data receiving unit that receives data transmitted from the mobile body via a communication network and an antenna. Data storage unit, a ground current induction magnetic field estimation unit for estimating a ground current induction magnetic field based on the data stored and accumulated in the data storage unit and map data, and a ground current estimation based on the estimated ground current induction magnetic field A ground current estimator, a ground current induced magnetic field strength variation pattern generator that generates a variation pattern by counting temporal transitions of the ground current induced magnetic field strength, and the estimated ground current and the ground current induced magnetic field strength. It has an earthquake prediction part that analyzes the fluctuation pattern of the earthquake and estimates the epicenter area, seismic intensity, and earthquake occurrence time.
また、前記移動体がカーナビゲーションシステムを備えている場合は前記ＧＰＳ位置検出器に代えて前記カーナビゲーションシステムの位置データを使用するようにしてもよい。 Further, when the moving body includes a car navigation system, the position data of the car navigation system may be used instead of the GPS position detector.
また、前記磁力線センサおよび通信機器を観測地域内の予め選定した既存の固定構造物に取付け、前記通信機器は前記磁力線センサの出力する磁界データおよび設置位置を示す情報を既存の通信網を介して前記地震予知センタへ送信するようにしてもよい。 In addition, the magnetic field sensor and the communication device are attached to an existing fixed structure selected in advance in the observation area, and the communication device transmits the magnetic field data output from the magnetic field sensor and information indicating the installation position via the existing communication network. You may make it transmit to the said earthquake prediction center.
更に、前記磁力線センサおよびＧＰＳ位置検出器を携帯電話機等に組込み、自らの通信機能を利用して観測データを前記地震予知センタへ送信するようにしてもよい。 Furthermore, the magnetic field line sensor and the GPS position detector may be incorporated in a mobile phone or the like, and the observation data may be transmitted to the earthquake prediction center using its own communication function.
また更に、前記既存の固定構造物に加速度センサを具備させ、前記加速度センサが地震動を検知したときに磁界データを送信させるようにしてもよいし、あるいは、前記移動体や携帯電話機に加速度センサを具備させ、一定時間以上停止状態であることを前記加速度センサにより検出したときに磁界データを送信させるようにしてもよい。 Still further, the existing fixed structure may be provided with an acceleration sensor, and magnetic field data may be transmitted when the acceleration sensor detects earthquake motion, or an acceleration sensor may be provided to the mobile body or the mobile phone. The magnetic field data may be transmitted when the acceleration sensor detects that the vehicle is stopped for a certain time or longer.
本発明によれば、観測地域内を走行する車両や船舶等に磁力線センサ、ＧＰＳ位置検出器およびデータ送信器を搭載し、地震予知センタにおいて観測地域内の各地点での磁界データを収集し、磁界データに基づき地電流誘導磁界および地電流を推定し分析することにより、観測機器を多数の地点に観測機器を設置しなくても、安価な設備コストで精度よく地震を予知できる。 According to the present invention, a magnetic field sensor, a GPS position detector, and a data transmitter are mounted on a vehicle or ship traveling in the observation area, and magnetic field data at each point in the observation area is collected at the earthquake prediction center. By estimating and analyzing the earth current induced magnetic field and earth current based on the magnetic field data, it is possible to accurately predict earthquakes at low cost without installing observation equipment at many points.
また、観測地域内の予め選定した既存の構造物に磁力線センサを設け既存の通信網を介して磁気データを地震予知センタへ送信させることにより、あるいは携帯電話機等に磁力線センサを設けて磁気データを地震予知センタへ送信させることにより、安価な設備コストで観測地域内の多数の地点の観測データを収集でき、精度よく地震を予知できる。 In addition, magnetic field sensors are installed in pre-existing structures in the observation area to transmit magnetic data to the earthquake prediction center via an existing communication network, or magnetic field sensors are installed in mobile phones or the like to transmit magnetic data. By transmitting to the earthquake prediction center, observation data at a large number of points in the observation area can be collected at a low equipment cost, and earthquakes can be accurately predicted.
更に、磁力線センサと共に加速度センサも取付けておき、加速度センサが地震動を検知したときに観測データを自動的に送信することにより、本震の前の前震発生時において磁界データを収集できるので、地震予知に有効な観測データを得ることができる。 In addition, an accelerometer is installed along with the magnetic field sensor, and when the accelerometer detects earthquake motion, the observation data is automatically transmitted, so that magnetic field data can be collected at the time of the foreshock before the mainshock. Effective observation data can be obtained.
［図１］本発明の一実施形態を示すブロック図である。FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an embodiment of the present invention.
［図２］地震発生前における震源域近辺の地電流モデルを示す図である。[FIG. 2] A diagram showing a ground current model in the vicinity of the hypocenter region before the occurrence of the earthquake.
［図３］図１に示した地震予知センタ４の地震予知動作を示す図である。FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an earthquake prediction operation of the earthquake prediction center 4 shown in FIG.
［図４］地電流誘導磁界の推定を示す図である。FIG. 4 is a diagram showing estimation of a ground current induction magnetic field.
［図５］地電流の推定例を示す図である。FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of estimating a ground current.
［図６］観測された地電流誘導磁界および地電流の一例を示す図である。FIG. 6 is a diagram showing an example of the observed ground current induced magnetic field and ground current.
［図７］観測された地電流誘導磁界および地電流の一例を示す図である。FIG. 7 is a diagram showing an example of the observed ground current induced magnetic field and ground current.
［図８］観測された地電流誘導磁界および地電流の一例を示す図である。FIG. 8 is a diagram showing an example of the observed ground current induced magnetic field and ground current.
［図９］地電流誘導磁界強度の変動パターンの一例を示す図である。FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an example of a fluctuation pattern of the ground current induction magnetic field intensity.
次に本発明について図面を参照して説明する。 Next, the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.
図１は本発明の一実施形態を示すブロック図であり、陸上または海上を移動可能な車両や船舶等の移動体１や、観測地域内の予め選定した既存の固定構造物２を利用して、観測地域内の多数の地点での観測データを収集して震源域や発生時期等を推定する地震予知システムを示している。 FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing an embodiment of the present invention, using a moving body 1 such as a vehicle or a ship that can move on land or sea, or an existing fixed structure 2 selected in advance in an observation area. This shows an earthquake prediction system that collects observation data at many points in the observation area and estimates the epicenter and the time of occurrence.
ここでは、磁力線センサ１１およびＧＰＳ位置検出器１２等を搭載して観測データを地震予知センタ４へ送信する移動体１と、磁力線センサ１１および通信機器１４が取付けられた既存の固定構造物２と、観測データを地震予知センタ４へ伝送する通信網３と、観測地域内の多数の地点での観測データに基づいて地震予知する地震予知センタ４とを備えている。 Here, a moving body 1 that includes a
移動体１は、観測地域内を移動する車両１−１や船舶１−２であり、磁力線の方位および強さを示す磁界データを出力する磁力線センサ１１、およびＧＰＳ衛星の電波を受信して位置データを出力するＧＰＳ位置検出器１２、並びに観測データを地震予知センタ４へ送信するデータ送信器１３を搭載している。 The moving body 1 is a vehicle 1-1 or a ship 1-2 that moves within an observation area, and receives a magnetic
なお、移動体がカーナビゲーションシステムを搭載している場合は、カーナビゲーションシステムの位置データを利用できるので、ＧＰＳ位置検出器１２を削除することができる。 In addition, since the position data of a car navigation system can be utilized when the mobile body carries the car navigation system, the
また、観測データはリアルタイムで送信してもよいし、データ記憶機器を設けてそれに記録させるようにしてもよい。なお、観測データには、磁界データおよび位置データの他に観測時刻を示すデータが含まれることは言うまでもない。 Moreover, observation data may be transmitted in real time, or a data storage device may be provided and recorded therein. Needless to say, the observation data includes data indicating the observation time in addition to the magnetic field data and the position data.
また、予め定めた観測位置や時刻になったときに自動的に観測データを送信するようにしておけば、人的負担を軽減できる。 Further, if the observation data is automatically transmitted when the predetermined observation position and time are reached, the human burden can be reduced.
また、観測地域一帯をメッシュ走行して観測するようにすれば、効果的に観測データを取ることができる。メッシュ走行とは、携帯電話の電波調査などで頻繁に利用される走行方法であり、予め走行する地域の地図を用意して網目状に線を描き、その線に沿ってメッシュ状に走行することである。 In addition, observation data can be obtained effectively if the observation area is meshed and observed. Mesh traveling is a traveling method that is frequently used in radio wave surveys of mobile phones, etc. Prepare a map of the area you are traveling in advance, draw a line in a mesh, and travel along the line in a mesh It is.
既存の固定構造物２としては、例えば、各家庭や会社に設置されている電気・ガス・水道メーターや、道路に沿って設けられている自動販売機、電力・通信線用柱や交通信号用柱、およびバス停に設置されている運行表示機器、その他、携帯電話基地局やＰＨＳ基地局の局舎等が考えられる。 Examples of the existing fixed structure 2 include, for example, electricity / gas / water meters installed at homes and companies, vending machines provided along roads, power / communication line pillars and traffic signals. The operation display devices installed at the pillars and bus stops, and other mobile phone base stations and PHS base station buildings are also conceivable.
そして、通信機器１４は、有線または無線により磁力線センサ１１の出力する磁界データを、設置位置を示す情報と共に地震予知センタ４へ送信する。 And the
この場合、リアルタイムで送信してもよいし、予め定めた観測時刻になったときに自動的に送信するようにしてよい。 In this case, it may be transmitted in real time or automatically when a predetermined observation time is reached.
なお、既存の固定構造物２が、電力・通信線用柱や交通信号用柱および携帯電話基地局やＰＨＳ基地局の局舎等の場合、データ伝送路を容易に確保できる。また防災無線システムのような既存の無線通信手段を利用すれば、低コスト化をはかることができる。 If the existing fixed structure 2 is a power / communication line pillar, a traffic signal pillar, a mobile phone base station, a PHS base station, or the like, a data transmission path can be easily secured. In addition, the cost can be reduced by using an existing wireless communication means such as a disaster prevention wireless system.
電気・ガス・水道メーター等の場合、自動検針システムを利用して伝送してもよい。また、バス停に設置されている運行表示機器の場合、車両運行管理システムを利用して伝送するようにしてもよい。更に、自動販売機の場合、磁界データと共に自動販売機の売上・在庫情報等を伝送するシステムを構築してもよい。 In the case of an electricity / gas / water meter, etc., the automatic meter reading system may be used for transmission. Moreover, in the case of the operation display apparatus installed in the bus stop, you may make it transmit using a vehicle operation management system. Further, in the case of a vending machine, a system for transmitting sales / inventory information of the vending machine together with magnetic field data may be constructed.
通信網３は、基地局を含む移動通信網や通信衛星を介する衛星通信網等の既設の通信網である。 The
地震予知センタ４は、通信網３およびアンテナを介して観測データを受信するデータ受信部４１と、観測データや地図データ等の各種データを保持蓄積するデータ記憶部４２と、データ記憶部４２に保持蓄積された観測データや地図データに基づき地電流誘導磁界を推定する地電流誘導磁界推定部４３と、地電流誘導磁界の推定結果に基づき地電流を推定する地電流推定部４４と、地電流誘導磁界強度の時間的推移を集計して変動パターンを生成する地電流誘導磁界強度変動パターン生成部４５と、地電流の推定結果および地電流誘導磁界強度の変動パターンを分析して震源域、震度および地震発生時期を推定する地震予知部４６とを有している。 The earthquake prediction center 4 includes a
図２は、地震発生前における震源域近辺の地電流モデルを示す図である。 FIG. 2 is a diagram showing a ground current model in the vicinity of the hypocenter region before the occurrence of the earthquake.
ここでは、プレートＡとプレートＢとが互いぶつかり合う方向に移動して圧迫し合っている。プレートＡとプレートＢとの境界面の中の局所的に圧力の増大している箇所Ｃを震源域とする。 Here, the plate A and the plate B are moved and pressed in a direction in which they collide with each other. A point C where the pressure is locally increased in the boundary surface between the plate A and the plate B is defined as an epicenter region.
この震源域Ｃでは、強大な圧迫力が集中し極めて高圧の状態であり、その圧力はプレートの動きによって次第に高くなっていく。この状態のとき、震源域Ｃではピエゾ効果による電圧が発生し、岩盤内の電荷が震源域Ｃに流れ込むことが想定される。 In this epicenter C, a strong pressure force is concentrated and it is in an extremely high pressure state, and the pressure gradually increases as the plate moves. In this state, a voltage due to the piezo effect is generated in the hypocenter region C, and it is assumed that charges in the rock mass flow into the hypocenter region C.
岩盤内の電荷の流れ（地電流）は、岩盤中の導電性の良い箇所を辿って各方面から川の様に流れ込むことが想定される。通常、震源域の大部分は地中にあるため、多くの電荷は地中を流れ、地表を流れるケースは少ないものと想定される。 It is assumed that the flow of electric charge (geoelectric current) in the rock mass flows like a river from each direction following a place with good conductivity in the rock mass. Usually, most of the epicenter area is in the ground, so it is assumed that a lot of electric charge flows in the ground and rarely flows on the ground surface.
震源域Ｃの岩盤が崩壊する直前では加速度的に地電流が増大し、岩盤崩壊と同時に圧力開放に伴いピエゾ電圧は消失して地電流も瞬時に消失するものと想定される。 Immediately before the collapse of the rock mass in hypocenter area C, it is assumed that the earth current increases at an accelerated rate, and at the same time as the rock mass collapse, the piezoelectric voltage disappears and the earth current also disappears instantaneously as the pressure is released.
このように、地震の前兆現象として地電流が発生し変化するので、地電流の向きおよび強さをそれぞれ観測することにより、地震を予知することができる。 As described above, since the earth current is generated and changed as a precursor of the earthquake, the earthquake can be predicted by observing the direction and intensity of the earth current.
ところで、地電流は地表を流れないので直接検出することは難しいが、地電流に起因して地上に誘導磁界（地電流誘導磁界）が発生するので、地上の磁界の方位および強さを検出することにより地電流誘導磁界の方位および強さを推定できる。 By the way, it is difficult to detect ground current directly because it does not flow on the ground surface. However, since an induced magnetic field (ground current induced magnetic field) is generated on the ground due to the ground current, the direction and strength of the ground magnetic field are detected. This makes it possible to estimate the direction and strength of the earth current induced magnetic field.
地電流誘導磁界の観測方法として最も簡単な方法は、磁針の示す方位の観測である。磁針が地電流誘導磁界の影響を受けることにより、通常の地磁気による方位とは異なる方位を示すので、地磁気および地電流誘導磁界以外の磁界が存在しない環境であれば、最もコストがかからず簡単に観測できる。 The simplest method for observing the earth current induced magnetic field is observing the direction indicated by the magnetic needle. Because the magnetic needle is affected by the earth current induced magnetic field, it shows an orientation different from the normal earth magnetism direction, so it is the least expensive and simple in an environment where there is no magnetic field other than the earth magnetic field and the earth current induced magnetic field. Observable.
第２の方法は、磁力線センサを使用することにより、磁針よりも高精度の観測が可能である。 The second method enables observation with higher accuracy than a magnetic needle by using a magnetic field line sensor.
第３の方法は、磁力線センサとＧＰＳ位置検出器とを組み合わせることにより、更に高精度化を図ることができる。 The third method can achieve higher accuracy by combining a magnetic field sensor and a GPS position detector.
また、磁針とＧＰＳ位置検出とを組み合わせることにより、地震予知に有効なデータが得られる。すなわち、磁針が示す北は真の北とは一致せず、しかも毎年少しずつズレていることはよく知られている。よって、ＧＰＳ衛星によって真の北を求め、磁針が示す北との差異を常時観測することにより地震予知に有効なデータが得られる。 In addition, data effective for earthquake prediction can be obtained by combining a magnetic needle and GPS position detection. In other words, it is well known that the north indicated by the magnetic needle does not coincide with the true north, and is shifted little by little every year. Therefore, true north is obtained by a GPS satellite, and data effective for earthquake prediction can be obtained by constantly observing the difference from the north indicated by the magnetic needle.
ところで、地電流誘導磁界の観測データの精度を高めるためには、地電流以外の原因で発生する磁界ノイズ成分を観測データから除去しなければならない。 By the way, in order to improve the accuracy of the observation data of the earth current induced magnetic field, the magnetic field noise component generated due to a cause other than the earth current must be removed from the observation data.
地電流以外の原因で発生する主な磁界ノイズとしては、次のようなものがある。
（１）電車の線路に近い観測地点における架線を流れる直流に起因して発生する磁界。この磁界の変化は、電車が近づくにつれて強くなり、離れるに離れるにつれて弱くなる短期的な微変動であるという特徴がある。
（２）太陽活動に伴うデリンジャー現象による地磁気擾乱。短期間に発生消滅する特徴がある。
（３）地下の金属鉱脈により発生する磁界。常に一定レベルであるという特徴がある。The main magnetic field noise generated due to causes other than the ground current is as follows.
(1) A magnetic field generated due to a direct current flowing through an overhead line at an observation point close to a train line. This change in magnetic field is characterized by short-term slight fluctuations that become stronger as the train approaches and weaken as it moves away.
(2) Geomagnetic disturbance due to the Dellinger phenomenon associated with solar activity. It has the characteristic of occurring and disappearing in a short time.
(3) Magnetic field generated by underground metal veins. It is characterized by a constant level at all times.
このような地電流以外の原因で発生する磁界ノイズ成分を除去するには、一定の観測地点で一定期間磁界を観測し、その変動パターンの特徴を分析して磁界ノイズ成分を抽出することにより、ソフトウエアにより除去できる。 In order to remove the magnetic field noise component generated due to causes other than the earth current, the magnetic field noise component is extracted by observing the magnetic field for a certain period at a certain observation point, analyzing the characteristics of the fluctuation pattern, Can be removed by software.
図３は地震予知センタ４の地震予知動作を示す図である。 FIG. 3 is a diagram showing an earthquake prediction operation of the earthquake prediction center 4.
まず、地電流誘導磁界推定部４３は、観測された磁界データから観測地点での磁界ノイズ成分を除去した後（ステップ１０１）、図４に示したように、磁界ノイズ成分を除去した観測地点での磁界方位と真の北の方位とのずれ量を求め（ステップ１０２）、磁界ノイズ成分を除去した観測磁界Ｎ１と真の北に補正された地磁気ベクトルＮとのベクトル差により地電流誘導磁界Ｎ２を推定する（ステップ１０３）。そして、図５に示すように地図上にプロットする（ステップ１０４）。 First, the ground current induced magnetic
次に地電流推定部４４は、図５に示したように、地磁気に対して異常が認められる地図上のポイントを繋ぎ合わせると共に、右ねじの法則により地電流を推定する（ステップ１０５）。 Next, as shown in FIG. 5, the ground
地電流誘導磁界強度変動パターン生成部４５は、特定の観測地点における地電流誘導磁界強度の過去のデータを集めて経時変動を示す地電流誘導磁界強度変動パターンを生成する（ステップ１０６）。 The ground current induced magnetic field strength fluctuation
地震予知部４６は、地電流誘導磁界強度変動パターンおよび地電流推定部４４により推定された地電流の分布を分析し、地電流が集中する等の不自然な領域を探して震源域を推定する。また、生成された地電流誘導磁界強度変動パターンを過去の地電流誘導磁界強度変動パターンと比較照合することにより地震発生時期および震度を推定する（ステップ１０７）。 The
例えば図６に示すように、地電流誘導磁界および地電流が観測地域の地図上にプロットされた場合、震源域は観測地域内の地電流が集中する箇所と推定され、観測領域の浅層直下でマグニチュード大の地震が推定できる。 For example, as shown in FIG. 6, when the ground current induced magnetic field and the ground current are plotted on the map of the observation area, the epicenter is estimated to be a place where the ground current is concentrated in the observation area, and the shallow area directly below the observation area. Can estimate magnitude-scale earthquakes.
また、図７に示すように、地電流誘導磁界および地電流が観測地域の地図上にプロットされた場合、震源域は観測地域外の近傍の浅層と推定できる。 In addition, as shown in FIG. 7, when the ground current induced magnetic field and the ground current are plotted on the map of the observation area, the hypocenter area can be estimated as a shallow layer near the outside of the observation area.
また、図８に示すように、地電流誘導磁界および地電流が観測地域の地図上にプロットされた場合、震源域は観測領域外の遠方の浅層、または近傍の複数の浅層箇所と推定できる。 In addition, as shown in FIG. 8, when the ground current induced magnetic field and the ground current are plotted on the map of the observation area, the epicenter is estimated as a distant shallow layer outside the observation area or a plurality of nearby shallow layers. it can.
図９は地電流誘導磁界強度の変動パターンの一例を示す図である。ここで、電流誘導磁界強度は相対値である。 FIG. 9 is a diagram showing an example of a fluctuation pattern of the ground current induction magnetic field strength. Here, the current-induced magnetic field strength is a relative value.
一般に震源域の岩盤が崩壊する直前の弾性限界点近傍では、ピエゾ電圧の急速な上昇に伴い地電流は急上昇する。そして、塑性変形直前のピエゾ電圧飽和に伴う地電流の停滞が観測された後、岩盤崩壊と同時に圧力開放に伴いピエゾ電圧は消失して地電流も瞬時に消失する。 Generally, in the vicinity of the elastic limit point just before the collapse of the rock in the epicenter, the ground current rises rapidly with the rapid increase in piezo voltage. Then, after stagnation of the ground current due to saturation of the piezo voltage just before plastic deformation is observed, the piezo voltage disappears with the pressure release at the same time as the rock collapse, and the ground current also disappears instantaneously.
また、地電流の時間的推移は、岩盤塑性とプレート同士の相対ベクトル速度によって一義的に特定され、観測地点から震源域までの距離に無関係であり、地電流誘導磁界は地電流に起因して発生するので、定点観測による地電流誘導磁界強度の時間的推移を観測すれば地電流の時間的推移を推定できる。 In addition, the temporal transition of the geoelectric current is uniquely specified by the rock mass plasticity and the relative vector velocity between the plates, and is independent of the distance from the observation point to the hypocenter region. Therefore, the temporal transition of the ground current can be estimated by observing the temporal transition of the earth current induced magnetic field intensity by the fixed point observation.
この場合、特定の同一プレート境界面に発生する震源域周辺の過去の地電流誘導磁界強度変動パターンを蓄積しておけば、震源域の塑性変形（地震発生）直前迄の地電流誘導磁界強度変動パターンを抽出することが可能である。従って、観測中の推定震源域のプレートを特定できれば、過去の地電流誘導磁界強度変動パターンと比較照合することにより、岩盤塑性変形（地震発生）迄の推定時期および震度を推定できる。 In this case, if the past earth current induced magnetic field intensity fluctuation pattern around the source area that occurs on the specific same plate boundary surface is accumulated, the earth current induced magnetic field intensity change until immediately before the plastic deformation (earthquake occurrence) of the source area. It is possible to extract a pattern. Therefore, if the plate of the estimated seismic source region under observation can be identified, the estimated time and seismic intensity until the rock mass plastic deformation (earthquake occurrence) can be estimated by comparing with the past geocurrent-induced magnetic field strength fluctuation pattern.
また、地電流誘導磁界強度の変動を示す曲線関数の遷移ポイントを設定し、岩盤の弾性限界点近傍での地電流誘導磁界強度に基づき岩盤塑性変形（地震発生）迄の時間を推定できる。また、地電流誘導磁界強度が到達する最大値を推定し、この最大値に応じて等価的に震度を推定できる。 In addition, the transition point of the curve function indicating the fluctuation of the earth current induced magnetic field strength can be set, and the time to the rock mass plastic deformation (earthquake occurrence) can be estimated based on the earth current induced magnetic field strength near the elastic limit point of the rock mass. In addition, the maximum value that the earth current induced magnetic field strength reaches can be estimated, and the seismic intensity can be equivalently estimated according to the maximum value.
以上の説明では、車両や船舶や既存の固定構造物に磁力線センサを設け、観測地域内の各地点の磁界データを収集するようにしているが、他の実施例として、携帯電話機や携帯端末等に磁力線センサおよびＧＰＳ位置検出器を組込んでおき、自らの通信機能を利用して観測データを送信させるようにしてもよい。この場合、定期的に自動的に観測データを送信するようにし、且つ通信料金を無料にすれば、ユーザに負担をかけずに広範囲の多くの地点の観測データを収集できる。 In the above description, a magnetic field sensor is provided in a vehicle, a ship, or an existing fixed structure so as to collect magnetic field data at each point in the observation area. However, as another embodiment, a mobile phone, a mobile terminal, etc. In addition, a magnetic field sensor and a GPS position detector may be incorporated in the sensor, and observation data may be transmitted using its own communication function. In this case, if the observation data is automatically transmitted periodically and the communication fee is free, observation data of a wide range of points can be collected without placing a burden on the user.
また、既存の固定構造物に磁力線センサと共に加速度センサを取付け、加速度センサが地震動を検知したときに、観測データを自動的に送信するようにしておけば、本震の前の前震発生時において磁界データを収集できるので、地震予知に有効なデータを得ることが可能となる。 In addition, if an accelerometer is installed together with a magnetic field sensor on an existing fixed structure and the acceleration sensor detects earthquake motion, the observation data is automatically transmitted. Therefore, it is possible to obtain effective data for earthquake prediction.
更に、車両や船舶等の移動体、および携帯電話機や携帯端末等にも磁力線センサと共に加速度センサを組込み、一定時間以上停止状態であることを加速度センサにより検出したときに、観測データを自動的に送信するようにしておいてもよい。 In addition, an acceleration sensor is incorporated in a moving body such as a vehicle or a ship, a mobile phone, a portable terminal, etc. together with a magnetic field sensor. You may make it transmit.
上述したように、観測地域内の多数の地点での磁界データを収集し、地電流誘導磁界を推定すると共に、推定した地電流誘導磁界に基づき地電流を推定し、これら推定結果を分析することにより、精度よく地震を予知することが可能である。 As described above, collect magnetic field data at many points in the observation area, estimate the ground current induced magnetic field, estimate the ground current based on the estimated ground current induced magnetic field, and analyze these estimation results Therefore, it is possible to predict earthquakes with high accuracy.
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