JPS5614366A - Forecasting unit - Google Patents

Abstract

PURPOSE: To make accurate forecast possible without consideration of long-time factors, by using the resultant demand quantity of the forecasting day and the day before the forecasting day as the base and by adding forecast of fluctuation components for this base in case of forecast of the day quantity of the demand quantity of waterworks, electric power, and so on.

CONSTITUTION: Short-time factors such as weather of the forecasting day and the day before the forecasting day, the temperature of the forecasting day, and the past snowfall quantity are input to short-time factor input device 1, and the day unit demand quantity resultant value of the preceding day is stored in preceding day resultant value memory unit 2. Demand quantity fluctuation for the preceding day is forecasted in demand fluctuation forecasting unit 3 on a basis of the model determined previously according to the output of device 1,d and this demand fluctuation quantity and the demand resultant value of the preceding day from memory unit 2 are added in adder 4 to output day unit demand forecast value 5. This forecast value 5 is supplied to water supply system optimum operating unit 6 to motor operated valve 11, water supply pump 10, and so on, thus forecasting accurately water demand of one day of waterworks without consideration of long-time factors.

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