JPH1049597A - Method for calculating the planned selling number of commodities, or the planned producing number of commodities - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide a method for calculating the number of commodities to be sold or the number of commodities to be produce, which is suitable for a sort of commodity of which period from the reception of order up to sales sharply changes in accordance with the demand of the commodity and the load or restriction of a production plant. SOLUTION: The planned number CKn of commodities for which order has been received but not sold in a prescribed future monthly period N is calculated based on the predicted number JYn of commodities to be order-received in the period N and an order remaining rate in a certain past months corresponding to the prescribed future months. The planned number H of the commodities to be sold in the prescribed future monthly period N is calculated based on the following equation. Namely Hkn = (the practical number CZn-1 of order remaining commodities or the planned number CKn-1 of order remaining commodities in a period just before the prescribed period) + (JYn in the prescribed period) - (CKn in the prescribed period).

Description

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE INVENTION

[0001]

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION The sales or production planning quantity suitable for a type of product, such as a passenger car, in which the period from receipt of an order for an item to sales varies greatly depending on the sales of the item and the load and constraints of the production plant. Is related to the calculation method.

[0002]

2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, in planning a sales plan and a production plan, as a method of calculating a sales plan quantity or a production plan quantity, first, a sales quantity is predicted as a demand forecast from market trends and the like, and the predicted value is appropriately adjusted. A method of determining the sales quantity or the production quantity by taking into account various stock levels has been used.

[0003]

However, the conventional calculation method has the following problems. In other words, in the retail world such as order-to-order sales, this is not a problem, but in the case where the period from order to sale fluctuates greatly due to product sales and the load and constraints of production plants, sales forecasts are based on pure market trends. Instead, it includes the effects of the manufacturer's own production situation, etc., resulting in forecast values that include complex requirements, and the uncertainties in determining sales and production plans increase significantly. There was a problem that the value greatly deviated. For example, in the case of a passenger car, since a dealer starts production at a factory after receiving an order, it is a reality that the period from the order receipt to the sale fluctuates greatly depending on how crowded the production factory is. This is because there is a restriction on the production amount at the production plant, and it is difficult to increase the production amount suddenly just because there are many orders.

[0004] The present invention solves the above-mentioned problems, and the period from receipt of an order for a product until sale is such that the product is sold.
It is an object of the present invention to provide a method of calculating a sales plan quantity or a production plan quantity suitable for a product of a type that greatly fluctuates due to a load or a constraint of a production factory.

[0005]

In order to solve the above problems, the present invention provides a method of calculating a sales plan quantity of a product, which comprises the steps of: Stores actual data of actual results, inventory results, and backlog results that are received or produced during production or have not been sold, and the sales plan of the product in a predetermined period in the future is stored using the actual data. A method of calculating a sales plan quantity of a product, which is executed by a system that plans a quantity based on a given forecasted order quantity, and includes a forecast order quantity in a future predetermined period and a past order quantity corresponding to a future predetermined period. Based on the actual back-order quantity in a certain period, the planned back-order quantity CK in the future predetermined period is calculated, and the product sales planned quantity H in the future predetermined period is calculated as follows: (product sales planned quantity H) = (predetermined period) Is calculated based on the actual backlog quantity or the planned backlog quantity in the immediately preceding period) + (the predicted order quantity in the predetermined period) − (the planned backlog quantity CK in the predetermined period).

Further, the method for calculating the production plan quantity of a product according to the present invention comprises the following steps: the sales plan quantity obtained by the above-described method for calculating the sales plan quantity of the product; and the actual inventory quantity in a past period corresponding to a predetermined future period. , The inventory plan quantity ZK in the future predetermined period is calculated, and the production plan quantity S of the product in the future predetermined period is calculated by: (production plan quantity S of the product) = (sales plan quantity H in the predetermined period) − It is characterized in that it is calculated based on (inventory actual quantity or inventory planned quantity in the period immediately before the predetermined period) + (inventory planned quantity ZK in the predetermined period).

Here, the definition of terms will be described. The predicted quantity is a quantity obtained by estimating what the object will be from the current time to a certain point in the future and how it will change based on past trends and the like. In addition, the planned quantity refers to a quantity determined as a value necessary to achieve a certain purpose under a given situation. According to this definition, in the present invention, the order quantity, the backlog rate, and the stock rate in a predetermined period in the future are treated as predicted quantities. In addition, the unsold quantity, stock quantity, sales quantity, and production quantity in a predetermined period in the future are handled as planned quantities. The backlog rate is the numerator of the backlog actual (planned) quantity of products that have received orders but have not been sold.
This is obtained by using the actual (predicted) order quantity as the denominator.
The inventory ratio is defined as the actual (planned) quantity of inventory,
The actual sales (plan) quantity is calculated as the denominator.

[0008] In the sales of passenger cars, orders are rapidly generated in conjunction with the announcement of new products, and in the initial period, demand exceeds supply, so the backlog rate is high. After that, the backlog rate is
While falling slightly, it fluctuates mainly depending on the season. Looking at the change in the backlog rate by month, January, April, 5
Monthly and August backlog rates tend to be high. this is,
This is because a bonus is paid in December and July to increase orders, and an order is increased in April due to employment and enrollment. Generally, in the passenger car market, model changes are performed every three to six years. When selling a new model, the inventor has discovered that the backlog rate of the model, including January and August, is analogous to the change in the backlog rate of the old model. Then, when selling a new model, a method for accurately calculating monthly sales volume and production volume using the similarity of the backlog rate was devised.

On the other hand, the inventory ratio is increased in the sales of passenger cars in anticipation of a new order when a new product is announced. However, since the number of orders is usually larger than that, the inventory ratio is low. Immediately before the launch, the stock ratio of the old model drops. Thereafter, the stock ratio repeatedly fluctuates mainly depending on the season while slightly increasing. When looking at the change in the stock ratio by month, the stock ratio in January, May, and August tends to be high. This is because in December and July, bonuses are expected to be paid and orders are expected to increase, so that dealers tend to increase inventory. This is because retailers tend to increase inventory because they are expected to increase. Generally, in the passenger car market, model changes are performed every three to five years. The inventor has discovered that when a new model is sold, the stock ratio of the model, including January and August, is analogous to the change in stock ratio of the old model. Then, when a new model is sold, a method of accurately calculating the monthly production quantity using the similarity relationship of the stock ratio has been devised.

Next, the operation of the above calculation method will be described. The storage means of the computer stores, for a specific product, for example, a passenger car, for a predetermined period of time, for example, every month, the actual production quantity at the production factory, the actual order quantity received by the dealer, the actual sales quantity of the dealer, the factory and sales. The actual quantity data of the actual quantity of inventory at stores and the actual quantity of unsold parts remaining after being ordered but produced but not sold are stored. Also, the forecasted order volume of passenger cars by month is given separately. The present system calculates the sales plan quantity of the product in the future predetermined month N based on the given predicted order quantity using the actual quantity data in the following procedure.

(1) Based on the predicted order quantity in the future predetermined month N and the actual backlog quantity in a past month corresponding to the future predetermined month N, the future predetermined month N
Is calculated. That is, the actual backlog rate of an old model of a specific passenger car is stored as actual data, and multiplied by the expected backlog rate in the past month corresponding to the predetermined future month N, and the expected order quantity is calculated. The remaining planned quantity CK can be obtained. here,
When the new model is first announced, accurate forecasts can be made using the monthly backlog at the time the old model was launched. In addition, since passenger cars undergo model changes every three to six years, more accurate predictions can be made by using the average monthly backlog at the time of the launch of old and old models. Become. In addition, when orders have settled down a few months after the launch of the product, a predetermined number of N
By using the average of the monthly backlog rates corresponding to the above, more accurate forecasts can be made.

(2) Next, the sales plan quantity H of the product for the predetermined month N in the future is calculated by: (the sales plan quantity H of the product) = (the actual back-order quantity or the planned back-order quantity in the month immediately preceding the predetermined month) + It is calculated on the basis of (forecasted order quantity for a given month)-(backlog planned quantity CK for a given month). That is, by adding the difference between the actual back-order quantity in the month N-1 immediately before the future predetermined month N and the planned back-order quantity CK in the future predetermined month N to the expected order quantity for the future predetermined month N. And the sales plan quantity of the product. If the actual backlog quantity in the month N-1 immediately before the future predetermined month N has not been input yet, the planned backlog quantity in the month N-1 immediately before the future predetermined month N can be used instead. The actual backlog quantity in the preceding month N-1 of the future predetermined period N is the quantity of the products scheduled to be sold, and should be subtracted from the predicted order quantity. The planned backorder quantity K in the future predetermined month N is predicted to receive an order, and should be added to the predicted order quantity.

Further, based on the stock plan quantity, the production plan quantity S can be obtained by the following procedure. (3) Sales plan quantity H obtained above and future predetermined month N
Is calculated on the basis of the actual stock quantity in a certain past month corresponding to the stock plan quantity ZK in the future predetermined month N. That is, the actual stock ratio of the old model of the specific passenger car is stored as actual data, and the stock ratio in the past month corresponding to the predetermined month is multiplied by the sales plan quantity H obtained in (2). , Backlog planned quantity K
Can be requested. Here, when the new model is announced, accurate forecasts can be made by using the monthly inventory rate at the time of launching the old model. Furthermore, if we use the average monthly inventory rate at the time of launching old models and old models,
More accurate prediction is possible. Further, at the stage where orders have calmed down several months after the start of release, more accurate forecasts can be made by adopting the average value of the monthly stock ratio corresponding to the predetermined month in the past several years.

(4) Next, the production plan quantity S of the product for the predetermined month is calculated by: (Production production quantity S of the product) = (Sales plan quantity H for the predetermined month)-(Actual inventory quantity or the actual inventory quantity for the month immediately before the predetermined month) It is calculated based on (planned inventory quantity) + (planned inventory quantity ZK for a predetermined month). That is, the sales plan quantity of the future predetermined month N obtained in (2) is added to the actual inventory quantity in the month N-1 immediately before the future predetermined month N and the future predetermined month N
By adding the difference with the stock plan quantity ZK, the production plan quantity of the product is obtained. If the actual inventory quantity in the month N-1 immediately before the future predetermined month N has not yet been input, the inventory planned quantity in the month N-1 immediately before the future predetermined month N can be used instead. The actual inventory quantity in the month N-1 immediately before the predetermined month N in the future is the quantity of commodities that are actually in stock, and should be subtracted from the planned sales quantity. Also, the planned inventory quantity for the future predetermined month N is scheduled to be kept as inventory, and should be added to the planned sales quantity.

[0015]

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS A method for calculating a planned product sales quantity and a method for calculating a planned product production quantity according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. FIG. 2 shows the configuration of a system for performing the method for calculating the planned product sales / production quantity according to the present invention. FIG. 3 shows a hardware configuration diagram of the present system. In the present embodiment, a passenger car is considered as a product. Passenger cars are one of the types of products in which the period from receipt of an order for a product to sale varies greatly depending on the sale of the product and the load and restrictions on the production factory. As shown in FIG. 3, the hardware configuration is an ordinary computer system. That is, the server computer 23 serving as the host computer is provided with the arithmetic means C
It comprises a PU 21 and a disk 22 as storage means. The client computer 28, which is a computer on the client side, has a CPU 2
5 and a disk 26 as storage means.
The CPU 21 and the CPU 25 are communicably connected by a network 27 such as an ISDN line. CPU2
5, an input / output terminal 24 is connected.

Next, the structure of the program stored in the disk 22 will be described with reference to FIG. A predicted sales volume input unit 11 for inputting a predicted sales volume for which sales are predicted within a predetermined period is connected to the plan information storage unit 12. Here, the predicted number of orders for passenger cars is separately obtained from market trends and the like, and is input to the present system. Also,
Sales / production planning unit 13 is connected to predicted order number input unit 11. In addition, the order entry forecast number input means 1
1 is connected to the result output means 16. The sales / production planning unit 13 is connected to a result output unit 16. In addition, the sales information / production planning means 13 is connected to the performance information storage means 14. The sales / production planning unit 13 is connected to a production condition storage unit 15.

FIG. 4 shows specific contents such as a period, an actual quantity, and a planned quantity used in the present system. First, the period is divided into predetermined lengths, and the month including the present is defined as N. .., N + 1, N + 2,... Are future months, and are months for which a sales plan / production plan is to be drafted.
.., N-1, N-2,... Are past months, and are months for which actual number data is to be collected. Month N
Stores the planned sales volume HKn, the planned production planning volume SKn, the predicted order sales volume JYn, the planned inventory volume ZKn, and the planned backlog volume CKn during the month. Similarly, in the monthly N + 1, the planned sales volume HKn + 1, the planned production volume SKn + 1, and the predicted order sales volume JY in the monthly N + 1.
n + 1, planned stock quantity ZKn + 1, and planned back-order quantity CKn + 1 are stored. Similarly, the monthly N-1 includes the monthly N-1.
Sales volume HZn-1 and production volume SZn-
1. The actual number of ordered orders JZn-1, the actual number of inventories ZZn-1, and the actual number of backorders CZn-1 are stored.

FIG. 5 shows a unit for planning the planned sales volume and the planned production volume in this system. FIG. 1 shows a flowchart of a processing procedure of the present system. FIG. 6 shows a relationship among a store H, a maker M, and a supplier B of parts as an example in describing the present system.

Next, the operation of the system having the above configuration will be described. First, a sales plan and a production plan created by the present system will be described. The sales plan / production plan indicates the number of sales plans and the number of production plans within a predetermined period in the future that are planned by the manufacturer M, and is planned for the following three purposes. (1) This is because the number of units to be sold is planned based on the predicted number of orders, and the manufacturer M and the store H plan and execute various sales measures based on the planned units. (2) Based on the planned sales plan, the number of units to be produced is planned with an appropriate product inventory level and an appropriate factory operation level in mind. Based on this, the manufacturer M plans various production measures.
It is to implement. (3) The procurement plan for units and parts is derived by applying the drafted production plan to the units and parts constituting the product, so that the manufacturer M and the supplier B can procure and produce each part. The purpose of this is to formulate and implement measures.

The sales plan formulated for the above purpose
The contents, configuration, and the like of the production plan will be described. First, assuming that the period is fixedly divided in units of months and the month including the present time is N, N + 1, N + 2,... At this time, the unit for planning and totaling the results has a hierarchical structure such as the total number of products, the product type 1, the product type 1-1,... As shown in FIG. A plan is not prepared for every type, but the type to be planned is selected depending on the production factory and the line.

Next, the components and contents constituting each sales plan / production plan will be described. Sales and production plans
It is composed of five elements: the number of orders received, the number of units sold, the number of units sold, the number of units in stock, and the number of units produced. In addition, each element is an achievement,
Or it is classified into two of prediction / plan. As can be seen from the words, the actual result means a value that has already been actual before the month N, and the forecast / plan is a future value, that is, a value to be obtained by the present system. Here, the proper use of the prediction and the plan will be described. The predicted quantity is a quantity obtained by estimating what the object will be from the current time to a certain point in the future and how it will change based on past trends and the like. In addition, the planned quantity refers to a quantity determined by a company manager or the like as a value necessary to achieve a certain purpose in a given situation. According to this definition, the system of the present embodiment treats the number of ordered units, the backlog rate, and the stock ratio in the future predetermined period as the predicted number. Also,
The number of units sold, the number of units sold, the number of units sold, and the number of units produced in the future period are treated as planned units. The prediction of the number of orders is performed at another stage and using another system, and in this system, it is treated as a simple input value.

Next, the meaning of each of the five number elements and the relationship between the number elements will be described. The number of orders received indicates the number of cases in which the customer C and the store H have concluded a business contract, and more specifically, the number of orders placed. The number of units sold is the number of items that the store H delivered the passenger car to the customer C within a predetermined period. Here, if the time from order receipt to sales is θ = 0, the number of orders received = the number of units sold, but in practice a finite period is required. This period also changes depending on the sales of the product, the stock status, the load on the production factory, and the like. For this reason, there are orders that were ordered but could not be sold during that period. This is treated as the number of backlogs.

A specific description will be given by taking the month N-1 in FIG. 4 as an example. However, in this case, it is assumed that (lead time from order receipt to sales) <(period divided for planning). The following relationship is established between the actual number of ordered units JZn-1, the number of actual sold units HZn-1, the number of actual units CZn-1, and the number of actual units CZn-1 at the end of the month N-2. Exists. (Monthly N-1 end backlog actual number CZn-1) = (Month N-2 end backlog actual number CZn-2) + (Monthly N-1 ordered actual number JZn-1)-(Monthly N-1 sales actual Number of units HZn-1) Equation (1) The number of actual backlogs CZn-2 in the previous two months N-2 is added to the previous month's N
-1 is added to JZn-1 and the actual sales volume HZn-1 sold to N-1 during the previous month is subtracted from the previous month.
This means that an actual backlog number CZn-1 of -1 is obtained.

The above equation (1) holds true not only for actual results but also for predicted / planned values (elements after N months). That is, (monthly N planned back-ordered units CKn) = (monthly N-1 actual back-ordered units CZn-1) + (monthly predicted N-ordered units JYn)-(monthly N planned sales units HKn) Formula (2) Add JYn to the forecasted number of orders for N this month to CZn-1 for the number of backlogs in N-1 for the previous month, and subtract the planned sales volume HKn to be sold in N for this month. This means that the remaining planned number CKn is obtained.

Next, the relationship between the number of units sold, the number of units produced, and the number of units in stock will be described. There is such a relationship that the value obtained by adding the production number of the current month N to the inventory number at the end of the previous month N-1 and subtracting the sales number of the current month N becomes the inventory number at the end of the current month. If this is also expressed in a formula using the monthly N-1 as an example, (N-1 actual inventory at the end of the month ZZn-1) = (N-2 actual inventory at the end of the month ZZn-2) + (N-1 monthly production) Actual number SZn-1)-(N-1 monthly actual sales number HZn-1) Expression (3) The relationship of Expression (3) is not only the actual result but also the forecast and plan value (N
And the following elements). That is, (N-monthly planned stock number ZKn) = (N-1-monthly actual stock quantity ZZn-1) + (Monthly N planned production quantity SKn)-(Monthly N planned sales quantity HKn) Equation (4)

Next, the relationship between the planned values between the total number of products and the product type 1 and the like will be described. Assume that the relationship between the total number of products and the product type is, for example, as shown in FIG. This means that products are first broadly categorized into product types 1, 2, and 3.
Indicates that the product type is finely classified into 11, 12, and 13. At this time, between the planned values of each unit, the value of the total number of products T = the value TS1 of the product type 1 + the value TS2 of the product type 2 + the value TS3 of the product type 3 ... Formula (5) The value TS1 of the product type 1 = product The value TS11 of the type 11 + the value TS12 of the product type 12 + the value TS13 of the product type 13... (6) must be naturally maintained, and it is also essential to ensure consistency.

Next, the processing procedure and contents of the present system will be described with reference to FIG. (1) Procedure of inputting the actual number of five elements (S1) First, the input of the actual number of each of the five elements (order, backlog, sales, inventory, and production) will be described. FIG.
All values before the month N-1 in Fig.
Sales / production planning unit 1 from the actual information storage unit 14
3 is transmitted. Specifically, the information stored in the disk 22 of the server computer 23 in FIG. 3 is transmitted to the CPU 21 and the CPU 25 of the client computer 28 via the network 27. Thereby, in FIG. 4, ZZn-2, CZn-2, S
The values of Zn-1, JZn-1, HZn-1, ZZn-1, and CZn-1 are prepared.

(2) Input of planned production planned number (S
2) Procedure In the next step, the planned number of production, which is planned and already in the implementation stage, specifically, the production planned number SKn of N monthly,
The information is transmitted from the plan information storage unit 12 to the sales / production planning unit 13. This is also transmitted to the CPU 25 of the client computer 28 from the disk 22 of the server computer 23 in FIG. (3) Procedure of inputting the predicted number of orders (S3) Next, the value of the result of the prediction of the number of orders received from month N, which is separately performed until the required time after month N + 1, is input from the predicted number of planned units input means 11. Is transmitted to the sales / production planning unit 13 via the planning information storage unit 12. Specifically, information stored in the disk 22 of the server computer 23 is transmitted to the CPU 25 of the client computer 28. Thereby, the values of JYn and JYn + 1 are prepared in FIG.

(4) Procedure for Determining the Number of Unscheduled Plans (S4) The following is the procedure for deciding the planned number of unscheduled vehicles from the month N to the required time after the month N + 1. Backlog is the result of complex factors such as product characteristics (whether it is easy to hold in stock, etc.) and the relationship between supply and demand.
In this system, the reliability of the planned number is increased by providing the base plan. In particular, when the backlog rate is correlated with the past time-series data, such as in a car, the reliability of the base plan itself is increased, and the base plan itself is at a practical level. The base plan is determined by the following procedure.

The past backlog rate of the target product is obtained. Specifically, the actual number of backlogs and the number of actual orders received for each month stored in the actual storage unit 14 are transmitted to the sales / production planning unit 13, and the sales / production planning unit 13 calculates the backlog rate = The actual number of backlogs / the actual number of orders received: Calculate the backlog rate using equation (7). Select an appropriate one from the calculated backlog rate. An appropriate backlog rate for obtaining the planned number of vehicles is selected from the backlog rates obtained by the above. Specifically, for example, it is the backlog rate of the old model of the passenger car in the same month and the backlog rate of the passenger car in the past same month. Obtain the average rate of the selected backlog rates. The average value of the backlog rate selected by is calculated.

Next, a specific method of determining the backlog rate will be described in detail. In the system of the present embodiment,
The actual data of the backlog rate is stored as time-series data as shown in FIGS. In both cases, the horizontal axis is in units of months. FIG. 8 shows, as an example, the change in the backlog rate in the year in which the model change of the passenger car was performed. It is assumed that the passenger car of the present embodiment is regularly changed every four years. Specifically, Showa 6
The model was changed in January, 1994, January, 1994 and January, 1996. FIG. 8 shows, as actual data, the change in the backlog rate for each month in the year of the model change. The data for 1996 are shown only until May.

FIG. 8 shows that the change in the backlog rate in the year of the announcement of the new model shows a strong correlation among the models. At the beginning of sales, the stock of dealers is increased to prepare for orders.However, usually, since the willingness to purchase is high and the number of orders is large, the backlog rate generally becomes a high value. Becomes From this high correlation, for example, when a new model is released in 1996, as a backlog rate which is a basis for planning the number of units to be backlogged, the number of months after the start of the release of the new model is shown in FIG. Old model (FY 1994) and old model (FY 1988)
It can be seen that the average value of the actual data of the backlog rate for each month may be used. That is, when the new model is initially released, accurate prediction can be made by using the monthly backlog at the time of the release of the old model. In addition, since passenger cars undergo model changes every three to five years, using the average monthly backlog rate at the time of the launch of old and old models,
More accurate prediction is possible.

Next, the case where a steady state is reached after several months from the release will be described. FIG. 7 shows, as an example, the actual data of the monthly backlog rate of the model 3 whose sale has been started in January 1992. H5 indicates the backlog rate in 1993,
H6 indicates the backlog rate in the 1994 fiscal year, and H7 indicates the backlog rate in the 1995 fiscal year. As shown in FIG. 7, orders are settled several months after the start of release, and the backlog rate tends to change in the same manner every year depending on the season. That is, H5
In the actual data of H6 and H7, a strong correlation is recognized for the monthly change. Here, when the fluctuations in the backlog rate are viewed by month, the backlog rates in January, April, May and August tend to be high. This is because a bonus is paid in December and July, and orders are increased, and orders are increased due to employment and enrollment in April. Therefore, for example, it can be understood that the average value of H5 and H6 should be used as the base ratio for planning the number of units to be backed in 1995. In other words, if orders are settled several months after the start of release, more accurate forecasts can be obtained by using the average value of the backlog rate for the past several years corresponding to the predetermined future month N in the past several years Becomes

A base plan of the planned number of back orders is obtained. From the average value of the back-order rate and the predicted number of orders, the number of planned back-orders is calculated by the following formula: (8) . The above is sales / production planning method 1
3 is performed. Specifically, the processing is executed by the CPU 25 of the client computer 28 in FIG. In FIG. 4, values of CKn and CKn + 1 are prepared.

(5) Procedure of Calculation of the Number of Sales Plans (S5) Next, the number of sales plans from the month N, N + 1 to the required time is calculated. The planned sales volume is calculated by the sales / production planning unit 13 based on the following equation (9) using the values obtained as a result of the procedures of (S1) to (S4). Monthly N planned sales volume HKn = Monthly N-1 actual backlog volume CZn-1 + Monthly N forecast order volume JYn-Monthly N planned backlog volume CKn ... Formula (9) HKn, HKn-1 in FIG. Is calculated.

(6) Procedure for Determining the Number of Planned Inventory Units (S6) Next, the number of planned inventory units from the month N, N + 1 to the required time is determined. This is started by inputting the stock ratio from the month N + 1 to the required time from the forecasted number planned number input means 11. Inventory rate = Actual (or planned) number of units / Actual (or planned) unit ... Defined as equation (10).

Next, a method for obtaining the stock ratio will be described in detail. In the system according to the present embodiment, the actual data of the stock ratio is stored as time-series data as shown in FIGS. In both cases, the horizontal axis is in units of months. FIG. 9 shows, as an example, a change in the stock ratio in the year in which the model change of the passenger car is performed. It is assumed that the passenger car of the present embodiment is regularly changed every four years. Specifically, in January 1988,
The model was changed in January 1994 and January 1996. FIG. 9 shows the change of the stock ratio for each month in the year of the model change as actual data. The data for 1996 are shown only until May.

FIG. 9 shows that the change in the stock ratio in the year of the announcement of the new model shows a correlation between the models. At the beginning of sales, the inventory ratio generally becomes low because orders increase and production cannot keep up, and becomes a steady state as several months pass. Based on this high correlation, for example, when a new model is released in 1996, as shown in FIG. Old model (FY 1994) and old model (FY 1988)
It can be seen that it is sufficient to use the average value of the actual data of the inventory ratio for each month. That is, when the new model is released, an accurate prediction can be made by using the monthly inventory rate at the time of starting the release of the old model. In addition, since passenger cars undergo model changes every three to five years, using the average monthly inventory rate at the time of launching old and old models,
More accurate prediction is possible.

Next, a case where a steady state is reached after several months from the release will be described. FIG. 10 shows, as an example,
The figure shows the actual data of the monthly stock ratio of the model 3 whose sales started from the month. H5 indicates the stock ratio in 1993, H6 indicates the stock ratio in 1994, and H7 indicates the stock ratio in 1995. As shown in FIG. 10, orders are settled a few months after the start of release, and the stock ratio tends to change in the same manner every year depending on the season. That is,
In the actual data of H5, H6, and H7, a strong correlation is recognized for the monthly change. Here, when the change of the stock ratio is viewed by month, the stock ratio in January, May and August tends to be high. This is because a bonus is paid in December and July, and orders are increased, and orders are increased due to employment and enrollment in April. Therefore, for example, it can be seen that the average value of H5 and H6 should be used as the stock ratio serving as the basis for planning the number of units to be back ordered in 1995. In other words, if orders are settled after several months from the start of sales, more accurate forecasts can be made by using the average value of the monthly inventory rate corresponding to the predetermined future month N in the past several years. Become.

The input stock ratio is passed to the sales / production planning unit 13, and the number of planned stocks after the month N + 1 is equal to the number of planned stocks ZKn + 1 = the monthly N + 1 stock ratio × the number N + 1 sales planned units HKn +. 1 ... Calculated by equation (11). However, as for the monthly N, the planned production quantity has been determined, and it is considered impossible to change it. The monthly N inventory planned quantity ZKn = the monthly N-1 actual inventory quantity ZZn-1 + the monthly N sales planned quantity HKn-the monthly N production planned quantity SKn ... Calculated by the equation (12). According to the above calculation, in FIG.
ZKn + 1 is determined.

(7) Procedure for Determining the Number of Planned Production Units (S7) Subsequently, the number of planned production units from the month N + 1 to the required time is calculated by the sales / production planning unit 13. The calculation method is as shown in the following equation (13). Monthly N + 1 production planned number SKn + 1 = Monthly N + 1 sales planned number HKn + 1-Monthly N planned stocked number ZKn + Monthly N + 1 planned stocked number ZKn + 1 Equation (13) In FIG. 4, SKn + 1 is calculated. Is done.

(8) Procedure for calculating the effect of the plan on the operation status of the production (S8) Procedure of the month N + 1 determined by the procedures of (S1) to (S7)
Thereafter, a display is made as to whether or not the number of planned production until the necessary time matches the operation status of production. At this time, after the month N + 1 stored in the production condition input storage means 15,
The number of operating days, operating hours, operating rate prediction values, line tact plan values, product and production line correspondences and ratios for each month are used. Here, the number of operating days of the month N + 1 is n [days], the operating time is ω [min / day], the predicted value of the operating rate is r, and the line tact of the line on which this product is produced is m [min /
), The ratio of the production of this product out of all products produced in this line is a [%], and the planned production volume of N + 1 per month is X [pcs]. The shortage Y [minute / day] is represented by Y [minute / day] = (ω−X · m / n · r) × 100 / a (Equation (14)).

This value is calculated by the sales / production planning unit 13 and displayed by the result output unit 16. When the excess or deficiency Y is positive, that is, when idle occurs in the production, the amount of the loss can be obtained by multiplying the hour rate (cost per minute) of this line. If this excess or deficiency is negative, it indicates an overload, but it is determined whether or not this value is within the flexibility of production due to overtime or the like. Ultimately, whether or not to adopt this production plan is determined by a person based on the planned number of units in stock and the excess or deficiency Y in production. If the production plan needs to be modified, the procedure goes to any of steps (S4) to (S8). On the way back, some changes are made and similar processing is performed.

(9) Display and storage of the planned number (S9) After the production planned number is finally determined by the procedure up to (S8), the result is output in the form of a table as shown in FIG. 1
6 is output. And further, the forecasted order quantity JYn,
JYn + 1, planned back-order units CKn, CKn + 1, planned sales units HKn, HKn + 1, planned planned units ZKn, ZKn + 1, and planned planned production units SKn + 1 are stored in the plan information storage unit 12.
This is specifically the CP of the client computer 28.
The information on U25 is stored in the disk 22 of the server computer 23 by the CPU 21 of the server computer 23 via the network 27.

As described above in detail, according to the method of calculating the sales plan quantity of the product according to the present embodiment, the predicted number of orders received in the future predetermined month N and the past corresponding to the future predetermined month N are determined. Based on the monthly backlog rate, the planned backlog quantity CK in the future predetermined month N is calculated, and the product sales planned quantity H in the future predetermined month N is calculated as follows: (product planned sales quantity H) = (predetermined period) Is calculated on the basis of the actual backlog quantity or the planned backorder quantity in the period immediately before the above) + (the predicted order quantity for the predetermined period) − (the backlog planned quantity CK for the predetermined period). However, even with respect to products such as passenger cars, which greatly fluctuate due to the sales of the products and the load / constraint of the production plant, the fluctuations can be predicted, and the accurate sales quantity can be predicted.

Further, according to the method of calculating the production planned quantity of a product according to the present embodiment, the sales planned quantity obtained by the above-described method of calculating the sales planned quantity of the product and the past corresponding to the predetermined month N in the future. The planned inventory quantity ZK in the future predetermined month N is calculated based on the monthly inventory rate and the planned production quantity S of the product in the future predetermined month N is calculated as follows: (production planned quantity S of the product) = (predetermined period It is calculated based on (sales plan quantity H)-(actual inventory quantity or inventory plan quantity in the period immediately before the predetermined period) + (stock plan quantity ZK in the predetermined period). Even for products such as passenger cars that fluctuate greatly due to sales and the load and constraints of the production plant, the fluctuations can be predicted to accurately predict the production quantity.

Although the embodiment of the present invention has been described above, the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment.
Various applications are possible. For example, in this embodiment,
Although the backlog planned quantity is calculated from the backlog rate, it is possible to use the past backlog quantity directly without using the backlog rate for products that do not change in the total number each year. Further, in the present embodiment, the system calculates the back-order rate and the stock rate, but the same applies if the previously-determined back-order rate and the stock rate are stored as data. Further, for example, in the present embodiment, the period is performed on a monthly basis, but may be performed on a weekly or daily basis depending on the characteristics of the product.

[0048]

According to the method for calculating the planned sales quantity of a product according to the present invention, the expected order quantity in the future predetermined period and the actual backlog quantity in the past certain period corresponding to the future predetermined period are obtained. Calculate the backlog planned quantity CK in the future predetermined period, and calculate the merchandise sales planned quantity H in the future predetermined period by (product sales planned quantity H) = (the actual backlog quantity or the note in the period immediately before the predetermined period). Since it is calculated based on (remaining planned quantity) + (predicted order quantity for a predetermined period) − (remaining planned quantity CK for a predetermined period), the period from order receipt to sales depends on product sales and production factory load / load. Even for a product that fluctuates greatly due to restrictions, the fluctuation can be predicted, and the accurate sales quantity can be predicted.

Further, according to the method for calculating the production plan quantity of a product according to the present invention, the sales plan quantity obtained by the above-mentioned method for calculating the sales plan quantity of the product is compared with the inventory in a past period corresponding to a predetermined period in the future. Based on the actual quantity and the planned quantity ZK in the future predetermined period, the inventory plan quantity ZK is calculated, and the production plan quantity S of the product in the future predetermined period is calculated by: (production plan quantity S of the product) = (sales plan quantity H in the predetermined period) ) − (Inventory actual quantity or inventory planned quantity in the period immediately before the predetermined period) + (Inventory planned quantity ZK in the predetermined period), so the period from order receipt to sales depends on product sales and production factories. With regard to products that greatly fluctuate due to the load and constraints of the above, it is possible to predict the fluctuations and accurately predict the production quantity.

[Brief description of the drawings]

FIG. 1 is a flowchart showing a sales plan quantity / production plan quantity calculation method according to an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a system for executing a sales plan quantity / production plan quantity calculation method.

FIG. 3 is a block diagram showing a hardware configuration of the system.

FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram showing a relationship between a sales plan and a production plan to be drafted.

FIG. 5 is an explanatory diagram showing the relationship between the total number of products and the types of products.

FIG. 6 is an explanatory diagram showing a relationship among a customer, a store, a maker, and a supplier.

FIG. 7 is a data diagram showing monthly changes in the backlog rate.

FIG. 8 is a data diagram showing monthly changes in the backlog rate in the first year of the new model release.

FIG. 9 is a data diagram showing monthly changes in the stock ratio.

FIG. 10 is a data diagram showing a monthly change in a stock ratio in a first year of a new model release.

[Explanation of symbols]

 11 means for inputting the forecasted number of orders 12 means for storing plan information 13 means for planning sales and production 14 means for storing actual information 15 means for storing input of production conditions 16 means for outputting results

Claims (2)

[Claims] Claims: 1. For a predetermined product, for each predetermined period, a production result, an order received result, a sales result, an inventory result, and an order back result that is in production or has been received but has not been sold but has been sold. Each performance data is stored, and the sales plan quantity of the product for a predetermined period in the future using the respective performance data is calculated based on the given forecasted order quantity. In the calculation method, a backlog planned quantity CK in the future predetermined period is calculated based on the expected order quantity in the future predetermined period and the actual backlog quantity in a past period corresponding to the future predetermined period. Then, the sales plan quantity H of the product in the future predetermined period is calculated by: (sales plan quantity H of the product) = (actual back-order quantity or planned back-order quantity in the period immediately before the predetermined period) + (predetermined period A method for calculating a sales plan quantity of a product, which is calculated based on (forecasted order quantity during the period) − (a planned back order quantity CK for a predetermined period). 2. A method for calculating a production plan quantity of a product, wherein the production plan quantity of the future predetermined period is calculated by using the method of calculating a sales plan quantity of a product according to claim 1. Based on the quantity and the actual inventory quantity in the past predetermined period corresponding to the future predetermined period, the inventory plan quantity ZK in the future predetermined period is calculated, and the production plan quantity S of the product in the future predetermined period is calculated. , (Production planned quantity S) = (Sales planned quantity H for a predetermined period) − (Actual stock quantity or planned stock quantity in a period immediately before the predetermined period) + (Stock planned quantity ZK for a predetermined period). A method for calculating a production plan quantity of a product, characterized in that: