JPH03148502A - Boiler accident analysis supporting system and boiler accident analysis supporting method - Google Patents

Abstract

PURPOSE:To contrive the speedup and high accuracy of an accident analysis by combining a data management subsystem, a work procedure control subsystem, an accident cause-counter action retrieval expert system and a strength analysis subsystem to perform data processing. CONSTITUTION:A work procedure control subsystem 7 reads an accident analysis procedure and work contents of a data base through a data management subsystem 6 to show measurement and search items necessary for an accident analysis overall flowchart, detail flowcharts in each step, work contents and an accident analysis on a CRT display part 3a. And, when the measurement and search results are input from an input and output device 3, an accident cause-counter action search expert system 9 performs cause investigation corrective action selection by the use of fussy reasoning to show on the display part 3a. At the same time, a strength analysis subsystem 10 performs a strength analysis to show the results. By such a constitution, the accuracy improvement and speedup can be accomplished.

Description

[Detailed Description of the Invention] [Field of Industrial Application] The present invention relates to a maintenance diagnosis support system and a support method,
In particular, the present invention relates to a boiler accident analysis support system and support method suitable for speeding up and increasing accuracy in investigating the cause of an accident and selecting countermeasures.

[Prior Art] As shown in FIG. 9, a conventional system includes a maintenance diagnosis reasoning system 100 and a plant data management system 10.
4, multiple dedicated database systems 105A
-D and connect these to the data input/output device f l 0
6 It was constructed by connecting A=D.

The maintenance diagnosis inference system 100 has a knowledge base 101 and an inference mechanism 102, and the knowledge base 101 has a rule storage unit 1.
01A and a variable value storage section 101B, and is connected to a human output device 103 for diagnosis.

Plant trouble information (
When the abnormality information) is input, the maintenance diagnosis inference system 10
The inference mechanism 102 of No. 0 reads the diagnostic procedure for this trouble information from the rule storage section 101A of the knowledge base 101, and outputs it to the CRT display device of the diagnostic input/output device 103 in, for example, IF-THEN format. Reasoning mechanism 102
41. Read the status variables of the equipment to be maintenance diagnosed from the variable value storage unit 101B, infer a diagnosis, and display the abnormality cause diagnosis result on the CRT display device of the diagnostic input/output device W103.

Along with this, instructions for maintenance procedures, evaluation of the degree of impact on the entire plant, determination of countermeasures based on diagnosis results, etc. are output to the CRT display device.

However, in the event of an accident such as a crack or breakage of equipment, there are functions to investigate the cause of the accident and select countermeasures based on accident situation investigation, material investigation of the accident product, strength analysis, etc., as well as a series of accident analysis procedures and work contents. No consideration was given to the specific guiding function (Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 16526/1983)
Publication No. 4).

Incidentally, related systems of this type include, for example, JP-A-61-55777 and JP-A-5-182.
Publication No. 206 and the like can be mentioned.

Another conventional system was composed of a user interface 108, an inference mechanism 109, a knowledge base 110, and a knowledge base interface 111, as shown in FIG. The inference mechanism 109 generates event sequences in the direction of causes (factor elucidation function), and conversely develops them in the direction of ripple effects (ripple prediction function). Event prediction function, importance evaluation function that quantitatively evaluates the importance of an event sequence in terms of safety, reliability, and economic efficiency, and measures to prevent the occurrence of one event specified in the event sequence. In addition, the knowledge base 110 has a rule-based,
New experience information is input through the device user interface, which is frame-based, slot-based, synonym dictionary, and case-based, and the event sequence is reproduced on the system's output screen using causal elucidation and spillover prediction functions. do. Predict the event sequence of the neck from the reproduced event sequence (similar event prediction function).

Modify similar event sequences to suit your own plant (mainly functions for elucidating causes and predicting spillovers).

Prioritize measures for several modified event sequences (importance evaluation function).

Then, preventive measures were formulated in order of priority (preventive measure planning function).

However, in the event of an accident such as cracks or damage to equipment, there is a function that provides specific guidance on accident analysis procedures and work contents.
No consideration was given to a function that numerically supports the cause of the accident and the validity of countermeasures by performing strength analysis (Thermal and Nuclear Power Generation Voj!).

39, No. 10, Oct. 198B 18th-19th
page).

[Problem to be solved by the invention]

The conventional system described above has functions to investigate the cause of the accident and select countermeasures based on accident situation investigation, material investigation of the accident product, strength analysis, etc., and a series of accident analysis procedures for the occurrence of accidents such as cracks and damage to equipment. However, there was a problem that no consideration was given to a function that specifically guides the work contents, making it difficult to perform boiler accident analysis quickly and with high accuracy.

An object of the present invention is to solve the above-mentioned problems and to provide a boiler accident analysis support system and support method that allows even a person without accident analysis know-how to perform accident analysis work quickly and with high accuracy.

[Means to solve the problem]

The problems with the conventional technology described above are that the input/output device that inputs and outputs data, the user interface that connects the input/output device and the system body and transmits data, the database that stores and outputs data, and the database and input/output device. In a boiler accident analysis support system having a system body equipped with a data processing system that performs analysis based on data from an output device, the data processing system includes a data management subsystem that manages data input/output of a database, and an analysis procedure. and a work procedure control subsystem that guides work procedures and work procedures, and an accident cause/countermeasure search expert system that uses fuzzy reasoning to investigate the cause of an accident and select countermeasures according to pre-stored analysis rules, and displays the results. , a boiler accident analysis support system characterized by having a strength analysis subsystem that performs stress calculations based on structural data and boundary conditions of analysis target equipment and performs strength analysis corresponding to the cause of the accident; The process of inputting signals to operate the system, and displaying work procedures and items from the database in the form of the overall accident analysis flow and detailed step-by-step flow on the input/output device via the work procedure control subsystem and data management subsystem. Then, according to the displayed work procedures and items, the measurement and investigation data are sequentially input to the input/output device, the data is transmitted to the accident cause/countermeasure search expert system, and the inference control mechanism within the expert system identifies the type of data. determining the order of inference according to quantity;
The fuzzy inference mechanism in the expert system executes inference according to the above order using the rules stored in the knowledge base in the system and the data input to the expert system, and selects the flaw detection position and the sampling range of the damaged product. In addition to displaying the inference results such as selection and correspondence selection of damage types and causes on the input/output device, the process of transmitting the data signal of the damage type and cause with the highest fuzzy value to the strength analysis subsystem, and the size of the equipment to be analyzed. The data necessary for analysis, such as material, load, etc., is input from the input/output device and transmitted to the strength analysis subsystem, and the subsystem calculates stress based on these input data and the transmitted damage form and factor data. The process involves creating an analytical model and calculating stress for each usage condition.Then, the strength analysis subsystem retrieves material property data corresponding to the damage form and factor data from the database, and performs strength analysis using this data and the stress calculation values. The process of calculating the service life limit of the target equipment and transmitting it to the expert system, and the expert system determines the correspondence between the service life limit calculation data of the equipment and the occurrence of an accident based on internally stored response determination rules. If it is compatible, a countermeasure structure is selected and a strength analysis command for this structure is transmitted to the strength analysis subsystem, and if it is not compatible, the cause is inferred and displayed on the input/output device. The problem is solved by a boiler accident analysis support method.

[Effect]

The operation of the main parts of the system of the present invention will be explained based on FIG.

The work procedure control subsystem 7 reads accident analysis procedure and work content data stored in advance in the database 5 via the data management subsystem 6, and displays data on the CRT display section 3a of the input/output device 3 via the user interface 2. The entire accident analysis flowchart, detailed flowcharts for each step, work contents, and measurement/investigation data items necessary for accident analysis are output and displayed on the screen, and the aforementioned measurement/investigation data items input from the input/output device 3 via the user interface 2 are displayed. It operates to transmit investigation data to the accident cause/countermeasure search expert system 9.

The accident cause/countermeasure search expert system 9 stores the transmitted measurement/investigation data in an internal database 14, and uses these data and the knowledge base 1.
Using multiple rule-based rules and fuzzy inference mechanism 12 that correspond to accident analysis procedures and work contents stored in advance in 1, the cause of the accident is investigated and countermeasures are selected, and the results are communicated to the subsystem interface 8 and the user. C of input/output device 3 via interface 2
It operates to output and display on the screen of the RT display section 3a and to transmit data signals to the intensity analysis subsystem 10 via the subsystem interface.

The strength analysis subsystem IO performs stress analysis based on the transmitted data and the structural data such as equipment dimensions and materials, applied load data, and boundary condition data input from the input/output device via the user interface 2. In addition to generating a model and performing stress calculations, the strength evaluation method according to the strength evaluation method corresponding to the cause of the accident is performed using the stress calculation values and material property data stored in advance in the database 5 transmitted via the data management subsystem 6. An analysis is performed on the equipment structure before and after the countermeasures, and the stress analysis model, stress calculation values, material property data, and service life limit values are transferred to the data management subsystem 6 and the user interface 2.
The output is displayed on the screen of the CRT display section 3a of the input/output device via the input/output device.

〔Example〕

Embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings.

FIG. 1 shows a system configuration of an embodiment of the present invention.
is the system body, 2 is the user interface, 3 is the input/output device, 3a is the CRT display, 4 is the system interface, 5 is the database, 6 is the data management subsystem, 7 is the work procedure control subsystem, 8 is the subsystem interface , 9 is an accident cause/countermeasure search expert system, 10 is a strength analysis subsystem, 11 is a knowledge base, 12 is a fuzzy inference mechanism, and 13 is an inference system
14 is a database within the expert system.

The system has a system main body 1 and a user interface 2.
, an input/output device 3 having a CRT display section 3a, and a system interface 4 are connected to each other. The system body 1 includes a database 5 that stores the overall accident analysis flow, step-by-step detailed flow, and material property data, a data management subsystem 6 that manages data input and output of the database 5, and a data management subsystem 6 that sequentially executes analysis procedures and work contents according to the accident analysis flow. A work procedure control subsystem 7 for guiding, a subsystem interface 8 for enabling data signal conversion between subsystems, a knowledge base 11 consisting of a plurality of rule bases corresponding to the accident analysis flow, a fuzzy inference mechanism 12, and an inference III. It consists of a control mechanism 13 and an internal system database 14, and is configured by interconnecting an accident cause/countermeasure search expert system 9 that investigates accident causes and selects countermeasures, and a strength analysis subsystem 10 that performs stress calculations and strength evaluations. be done.

The detailed step-by-step flow data stored in database 5 includes accident situation investigation, accident product sample collection, material investigation, strength analysis, neck case investigation, operation/maintenance data investigation, manufacturing/inspection/installation record investigation, and model test requirements. These are the work procedures and items for each step of failure determination, accident cause estimation, and countermeasure selection. In addition, as material property data, 2 tensile strength, yield strength,
Elongation at break, creep rupture strength, stress relaxation properties, low cycle fatigue strength, fatigue limit, non-ductile transition temperature, cracking susceptibility index, corrosion fatigue strength, corrosion/wear properties, etc. are stored.

Knowledge base 11 includes multiple rule bases corresponding to the accident analysis flow, namely flaw detection position selection, accident product sample collection range selection, contribution determination of manufacturing, inspection, and installation history, correspondence selection between damage forms and causes, and strength analysis results. It consists of a rule-based system that determines how to respond to the occurrence of an accident, evaluates how to respond to similar accidents, determines whether model testing is necessary, estimates the cause of the accident, and selects countermeasure structures.

When a system activation code is input to the input/output device 3, a control signal is transmitted to the system body 1 via the user interface 2, and the system is activated. The work procedure control subsystem 7 transmits the overall accident analysis flow data and detailed flow data output instruction signals for each step to the database 5 via the data management subsystem 6, and outputs the output data signal of the database 5 via the user interface 2. The information is transmitted to the input/output device 3, and the work procedure and items are output and displayed on the screen of the CRT display unit 3a in the form of an overall accident analysis flow and a detailed step-by-step flow. This provides guidance on procedures and items for accident analysis work, so
This has the effect that even those who do not have the know-how of accident analysis can carry out the work accurately.

When measurement/investigation data is sequentially input to the input/output device 3 according to the displayed work procedure and items, the data signal is sent to the accident cause/countermeasure search expert system 9 via the work procedure control subsystem 7 and subsystem interface 8. The information is then transmitted and entered into the database 14 within the expert system. The inference control mechanism 13 transmits a signal indicating the order of inference to the fuzzy inference mechanism 12 according to the type and amount of data input to the database 14. The fuzzy inference mechanism 12 includes a knowledge base 11,
Using a plurality of rule-based rules stored in the database 14 and data input to the database 14, inference is performed sequentially according to the inference order signal of the inference control mechanism 13, and flaw detection position selection, accident product sample collection range selection, manufacturing/inspection are performed.・Determine the contribution of installation history to accidents, select correspondence between damage forms and causes, determine correspondence between strength analysis results and accident occurrence using the strength analysis subsystem described later, evaluate correspondence with similar accident examples, determine whether model testing is necessary,
The data of inference results such as accident cause estimation, fuzzy value (accuracy), and countermeasure structure selection are transferred to the subsystem interface 8.
, the output is displayed on the screen of the CRT display section 3a of the input/output device 3 via the work procedure control subsystem 7 and the user interface 2.

Further, a data signal of the damage type and cause having the highest fuzzy value is transmitted to the strength analysis subsystem 10 via the subsystem interface 8 .

Structural data such as dimensions and materials of the target device are sent to the input/output device 3,
When the applied load data and usage condition data are input, the data signal is transmitted to the strength analysis subsystem 10 via the user interface 2 and the data management subsystem 6, and these data and the damage form and cause transmitted from the expert system 14 are A stress analysis model is generated based on the data, and stress calculations are performed for each usage condition. Next, the strength analysis subsystem 10 outputs and transmits material property data corresponding to the damage form and factor data from the database 5 via the data management subsystem 6, and uses this material property data and the stress calculation value described above. Then, strength analysis is performed using a strength evaluation method corresponding to the damage form and cause, the service life limit of the target equipment is calculated, and the calculation data is transmitted to the accident cause/countermeasure search expert system 9.

The expert system 9 determines the response to this calculation data and the occurrence of an accident based on the response determination rules stored in the knowledge base 11, and if it corresponds, selects a countermeasure structure and issues a strength analysis execution command for the countermeasure structure. It is transmitted to the intensity analysis subsystem 10.

If it is not compatible, infer the cause and replace the input/output device 3.
is output on the screen of the CRT display section 3a.

The output format is, for example, [understress/S kg/m
rd or more required - manual load value too low/Lkg or more required", "1st
2nd damage type and unsuitable cause - Search is being executed based on the combination of 2nd damage type and cause J, ``Insufficient input data - Key human resources data/A, B, CJ, etc.''

In this way, accident cause estimation and countermeasure structure selection, including strength analysis, are automatically carried out, so even those without accident analysis know-how can carry out accident analysis accurately and quickly, which has the effect of preventing the recurrence of accidents. has.

In addition, strength analysis can be performed by connecting to existing systems such as boiler preventive maintenance systems (boiler history management, abnormality diagnosis, life prediction, improvement inspection recommendations, etc.) that are not listed in Figure 1 through the system interface. Structural data such as structural dimensions and materials, applied load data, and usage condition data required for the process are automatically entered, which greatly reduces data entry work for accident analysts and enables more accurate and speedy accident analysis. It has an effect that can be achieved.

Figures 2 to 5 show an example of the fuzzy inference process by the accident cause/countermeasure search expert system 9. An example of this is the crack morphology estimation process.

Crack forms include ductile cracks, creep cracks, fatigue cracks, etc. Characteristic factors for identifying crack forms (hereinafter abbreviated as identification factors) include the accuracy θ between the principal stress direction and the crack surface, and the crack surface. There are roughness H, intergranular crack rate G, etc.

2 to 4 are membership functions representing the degree of correspondence (satisfaction) between each crack morphology and the quantitative value of each identification factor,
It is a quantification of the know-how of experts. These membership functions I are stored in the knowledge base 11 in advance.

When the measured value of each identification factor is input, the satisfaction value of each crack form with respect to each identification factor is calculated.

Figures 5 to 5 show the membership function ■, which represents the correspondence between satisfaction and accuracy (fuzzy value) considering the measurement accuracy of each identification factor, for each crack type, based on the actual value of measurement accuracy. It was derived from These membership functions ■ are stored in the knowledge base 11 in advance.

Using the satisfaction value of each crack form for each identification factor described above, calculate the coordinate position indicating the satisfaction value for each identification factor for each crack form, and the satisfaction level of the center of gravity across the membership function for each identification factor. When arithmetic processing is performed so that the coordinate positions match, Figures 5 to 5 are obtained.

Next, the membership function (shaded part) of the logical product set of the membership function set (1, II, etc.) for each identification factor is determined, and the center of gravity position thereof is calculated. Satisfaction corresponding to the center of gravity position and accuracy corresponding to the maximum height (
Fuzzy value) indicates the overall judgment satisfaction and accuracy of each identification factor for each crack type, and ranks 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc. in descending order of accuracy (fuzzy value) and satisfaction. −
・It is identified as the estimated crack form, and is output and displayed along with the identification factor measurement value, satisfaction level, overall judgment satisfaction level, and accuracy (fuzzy value) values. Therefore, the accident analyst can know not only the inference result but also the inference process and aI3 including the quantitative reliability, which has the effect of significantly reducing psychological burden.

Another embodiment of the invention is shown in FIG. 15- is a parallel processing processor, 16 is an input data management cell, 17 is a processing data management cell, 18 is a data processing command cell, 19 is a command signal distribution cell, 20 is the first expert system,
21 is the second expert system, and 22 is the nth expert system.

In this embodiment, input data is distributed and transmitted to a plurality of expert systems 20.21=22 via a parallel processing processor 15 that can execute data processing in parallel, and the data processed by the expert systems is collected and organized. The parallel processing processor 15
are the input data management cell 16 and the processed data management cell 17.
, a data processing command cell 18, and a command signal distribution cell 19. The data processing command cell 18, which is composed of a data processing command cell 18, and a command signal distribution cell 19, receives the input data signal transmitted from the input data management cell 16 and the processing data management cell 1.
Based on the processing data signal transmitted from 7 and the operating status signal of each expert system 20, 21, 22, the number and data processing item of the expert system to be processed according to the type of input data is selected and commanded. These data signals and command signals are transmitted to the signal distribution cell 19. The command signal distribution cell 19 distributes and transmits data processing command signals and input data signals to be processed to each expert system 20.21.22 on the basis of the aforementioned signals. Each expert system 20.21.22 performs data processing and transmits signals of processed data to the processed data management cell 17.

The processing data management cell 17 collects each processing data signal, sorts and organizes the data according to data type and item, and transmits the data signal to the data processing command cell 18.

The input data management cell 16 sorts and organizes the input data signals and transmits them to the data processing command cell 18.

The effect of this embodiment is that data processing speed is increased due to parallel processing.

〔Effect of the invention〕

According to the present invention, in the event of an accident such as a crack or breakage of equipment, the accident analysis procedure and work contents are specifically guided, and it is based on accident situation investigation data, material investigation data of the accident product, strength analysis data, etc. Since the investigation of the cause of an accident, the selection of a countermeasure structure, and the strength evaluation can be carried out automatically, even those without accident analysis know-how can carry out accident analysis work quickly and with high precision, which is a significant contribution to preventing recurrence of accidents. effective.

[Brief explanation of the drawing]

FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the system configuration of an embodiment of the boiler accident analysis support system according to the present invention, and the second Ruth diagram is
Fig. 1 is an explanatory diagram for explaining the crack morphology inference function of the system, Fig. 8 is a block diagram of another embodiment of the boiler accident analysis support system according to the present invention, and Fig. 9 is a diagram illustrating the system configuration of the prior art. The configuration diagram shown in FIG. 10 is a configuration diagram showing the system configuration of another conventional technology. DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 1... System body, 2... User interface, 3... Input/output device, 3a... CRT display section, 4
...System interface, 5-...Database, 6...Data management subsystem, 7...Work procedure control subsystem, 8...Subsystem interface, 9...Expert system for searching for accident causes and countermeasures. , 1G... strength analysis subsystem, 11-m! Base, 12... Fuzzy inference mechanism, 13... Inference control a structure, 14... Database within expert system. Applicant Babcock Hitachi Co., Ltd. Agent Patent Attorney Takeshi Kawakita Long stress direction and angle of crack plane θ 1\->Ym>a l Figure 4 Machiyagu-X. . I Crack Cree Kiki Han 1 //VM i】00: Maintenance diagnosis inference system 101: Knowledge base 101A: Rule storage unit 1018: Variable value storage unit 102: Inference mechanism 103: Diagnosis human output device 1n 104 Nibrant data Management system] 05A-D: Special Jlj database system 106
-D: Data user output device 10 Annidata recorder 108 News interface] 09: Inference a structure] 10: Knowledge base m: Knowledge base interface Figure 9' Figure 10 Day Month Day 1

Claims (3)

[Claims] (1) An input/output device that inputs and outputs data, a user interface that connects the input/output device and the system body and transmits data, and a database that stores and outputs data;
In a boiler accident analysis support system comprising the database and a system body equipped with a data processing system that performs analysis based on data from the input/output device, the data processing system includes a data management subsystem that manages input and output of data from the database. , a work procedure control subsystem that guides analysis procedures and work procedures, and an accident cause/countermeasure system that uses fuzzy reasoning to investigate the cause of an accident and select countermeasures based on pre-stored analysis rules, and displays the results. A boiler accident analysis support system characterized by having a search expert system and a strength analysis subsystem that performs stress calculations based on structural data and boundary conditions of analysis target equipment and performs strength analysis corresponding to the cause of the accident. (2) In claim (1), the accident cause/countermeasure search system comprises a knowledge base consisting of a plurality of rule bases corresponding to accident analysis procedures, a database within the expert system, a fuzzy inference mechanism, and an inference control mechanism. A boiler accident analysis support system characterized by: (3) Input a start signal to the input/output device to operate the system body, and use the work procedure control subsystem and data management subsystem to generate work procedures and items from the database in the form of the overall accident analysis flow and detailed step-by-step flow. The process of displaying the data on the input/output device, sequentially inputting the measurement/investigation data into the input/output device according to the displayed work procedure and items, transmitting the data to the accident cause/countermeasure search expert system, and A step in which an inference control mechanism determines the order of inference according to the type and amount of data, and a fuzzy inference mechanism in the expert system inputs the rules stored in the knowledge base in the system and the expert system according to the above order. The input/output device displays the inference results such as flaw detection position selection, accident product sampling range selection, correspondence selection between damage form and cause, and the damage form with the highest fuzzy value. The process of transmitting factor data signals to the strength analysis subsystem, and the data necessary for analysis such as the dimensions, materials, and loads of the equipment to be analyzed are input from the input/output device and transmitted to the strength analysis subsystem, and the The system creates a stress analysis model based on these input data and the transmitted damage form and factor data and calculates the stress for each usage condition, and then the strength analysis subsystem processes the damage form and factor data. The process of extracting material property data from the database, performing strength analysis using this data and the stress calculation value, calculating the durability limit of the target equipment, and transmitting it to the expert system, and the expert system calculating the durability limit of the equipment. The response to the data and the occurrence of an accident is determined based on the response determination rules stored internally, and if the response is determined, a countermeasure structure is selected, and a strength analysis command for this structure is transmitted to the strength analysis subsystem. A boiler accident analysis support method consisting of the process of inferring the cause and displaying it on the input/output device if it is not compatible.