JP7221426B2 - Delivery date calculation device, delivery date calculation method and program - Google Patents

Description

The present disclosure relates to a delivery date calculation device, a delivery date calculation method, and a program.

In order to comply with the delivery date requested by the customer, manufacturers who manufacture products need to improve the accuracy of the delivery date in replying to the customer, and it is essential to use an information processing system including a computer device. .

As an example of such an information processing system, Patent Document 1 discloses a sales terminal handled by a person in charge of sales, a delivery date management terminal handled by a person in charge of managing product delivery dates, and a person in charge of parts procurement. A delivery date management system including a parts procurement management terminal to handle is disclosed. In the delivery date management system described in Patent Document 1, when the sales terminal determines that the delivery date received from the delivery date management terminal is appropriate, it transmits order information to the delivery date management terminal, and orders are received based on the order information received by the delivery date management terminal. confirm. Further, in the delivery date management system described in Patent Document 1, when the delivery date management terminal receives a delivery date investigation request from the sales terminal, the delivery date is calculated based on the part procurement response received from the parts procurement management terminal. Note that Patent Document 1 exemplifies the purchase due date of the part with the longest purchase due date as a part procurement answer.

JP-A-2002-73936

The delivery date management system described in Patent Literature 1 calculates the delivery date based on the purchase date of the parts when the delivery date survey request is made, and changes in the parts purchase date after the delivery date survey request is made. is not considered. For this reason, for example, after an order is confirmed, there is a possibility that the required amount of parts will increase due to an increase in the total order quantity due to other orders, and the supply of parts from the supplier will not be able to catch up, and the delivery date may be extended. In this case, there is a problem that the accuracy of the calculated delivery date becomes low.

The present disclosure has been made in view of the circumstances as described above, and aims to improve the accuracy of the delivery date to be answered to the customer.

To achieve the above object, the delivery date calculation device according to the present disclosure includes a follow-up rate calculation unit, a change rate calculation unit, a sufficiency rate calculation unit, a delivery date calculation unit, and a delivery date display unit. A follow-up rate calculation unit calculates a follow-up rate indicating a ratio of the quantity supplied by the supplier to the changed quantity based on the supplier's delivery record when the quantity requested of the supplier for the goods changes due to a change in plan. The fluctuation rate calculation unit calculates the fluctuation rate of the quantity of goods to be procured based on the quantity of goods to be procured in the current plan and the quantity of goods to be procured in the plan immediately preceding the current plan. The sufficiency rate calculation unit calculates the sufficiency rate of the goods in the current plan based on the follow-up rate calculated by the follow-up rate calculation section and the change rate calculated by the change rate calculation section. The delivery date calculation unit calculates the delivery date of the product using the article based on the sufficiency rate calculated by the sufficiency rate calculation unit. The delivery date display unit displays delivery date information indicating the delivery date calculated by the delivery date calculation unit.

According to the present disclosure, the supplier's follow-up rate to the plan change and the sufficiency rate of the goods based on the fluctuation rate of the quantity to be procured are calculated, and based on the calculated sufficiency rate of the goods, the number of products using the goods You can calculate the delivery date. As a result, it is possible to improve the accuracy of the delivery date to be answered to the customer.

A diagram showing a functional configuration of a delivery date calculation device according to an embodiment of the present disclosure Block diagram showing the hardware configuration of the delivery date calculation device according to the present embodiment A diagram showing a display example of the received order information according to the present embodiment A diagram showing a display example of product master information according to the present embodiment A diagram showing a display example of article master information according to the present embodiment. A diagram showing a display example of product inventory information according to the present embodiment A diagram showing a display example of article inventory information according to the present embodiment A diagram showing a display example of backlogged order information according to the present embodiment A diagram showing a display example of delivery record information according to the present embodiment A diagram showing a display example of production planning information according to the present embodiment A diagram showing a display example of procurement plan information according to the present embodiment A diagram showing a display example of assembly planning information according to the present embodiment. A diagram showing a display example of the assembly filling rate information according to the present embodiment. A diagram showing a display example of article filling rate information according to the present embodiment. A diagram showing a display example of input information according to the present embodiment Graph showing the relationship between fluctuations in procurement quantity and supply quantity due to plan changes according to the present embodiment A diagram showing a display example of the delivery date calculation result screen according to the present embodiment Flowchart showing the flow of follow-up rate calculation processing according to the present embodiment Flowchart showing the flow of plan change processing according to the present embodiment Flowchart showing the flow of delivery date calculation processing according to the present embodiment

A delivery date calculation device, a delivery date calculation method, and a program according to embodiments for carrying out the present disclosure will be described below in detail with reference to the drawings. Identical or corresponding parts in the drawings are denoted by the same reference numerals.
A delivery date calculation device, a delivery date calculation method, and a program according to an embodiment of the present disclosure are for calculating the delivery date of a product ordered by a manufacturer from a customer. In this embodiment, the equipment and personnel for assembling the product are sufficiently secured, and on the premise that no problem will occur in the operation status of these, the delivery date calculation device, the delivery date calculation method, and the program are installed in the product. The delivery date is calculated when the procurement status of the goods to be used changes daily.

FIG. 1 is a diagram showing the functional configuration of a delivery date calculation device according to an embodiment of the present disclosure. As shown in FIG. 1, the delivery date calculation device 100 according to this embodiment is, for example, an electronic computer such as a personal computer or a server. The delivery date calculation device 100 includes a storage unit 110 that stores information and a follow-up rate calculation unit 120 that calculates a follow-up rate to changes in plans of suppliers who supply items used in products. Here, "goods" include not only the parts and materials that make up the product, but also all the goods used in the manufacture of the product. good too. Further, the rate of follow-up to plan change is, more specifically, the ratio of the quantity that the supplier has been able to supply following the change in the requested quantity of goods due to the change in plan.

The delivery date calculation device 100 also includes a change rate calculation unit 130 that calculates the rate of change in the quantity of goods to be procured due to changes in the plan, a sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 that calculates the sufficiency rate of goods, and a plan change unit 150 that changes the plan. Prepare. The delivery date calculation device 100 also includes a delivery date calculation unit 160 that calculates the delivery date, a delivery date display unit 170 that displays delivery date information indicating the delivery date, and an input unit 180 that receives information input from the user.

FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing the hardware configuration of the delivery date calculation device according to this embodiment. The delivery date calculation device 100 shown in FIG. 1 is configured by the hardware shown in FIG. As shown in FIG. 2 , the delivery date calculation device 100 includes a control section 51 , a main storage section 52 , an external storage section 53 , an operation section 54 , a display section 55 and a transmission/reception section 56 .

The control unit 51 executes processing according to the control program 59 . The control unit 51 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit). The control unit 51 functions as a follow-up rate calculation unit 120 , a change rate calculation unit 130 , a sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 , a plan change unit 150 and a delivery date calculation unit 160 included in the delivery date calculation device 100 according to the control program 59 . For example, the control unit 51 executes a follow-up rate calculation step performed by the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 . Further, the control unit 51 performs a change rate calculation step performed by the change rate calculation unit 130 and a sufficiency rate calculation step performed by the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 . Further, the control unit 51 executes a sufficiency rate calculation step performed by the plan change unit 150 and a delivery date calculation step performed by the delivery date calculation unit 160 .

The main storage unit 52 has a RAM (Random-Access Memory), loads a control program 59 , and is used as a work area for the control unit 51 .

The external storage unit 53 stores a control program 59 in advance. The external storage unit 53 supplies data stored by this program to the control unit 51 according to instructions from the control unit 51 and stores the data supplied from the control unit 51 . The external storage unit 53 includes a non-volatile memory such as a flash memory, HDD (Hard Disk Drive), SSD (Solid State Dive). External storage unit 53 functions as storage unit 110 .

The operation unit 54 supplies input information to the control unit 51 . The operation unit 54 includes information input components such as a keyboard, mouse, touch panel, and operation buttons. The operation section 54 functions as an input section 180 .

The display unit 55 displays information input via the operation unit 54, information output by the control unit 51, and the like. The display unit 55 includes a display device such as an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display) or an organic EL (Electro-Luminescence) display. The display section 55 functions as a delivery date display section 170 .

The transmitter/receiver 56 transmits and receives information. The transmitting/receiving unit 56 includes information communication components such as a network terminal device and a wireless communication device that are connected to a network.

In the delivery date calculation device 100 , the main storage section 52 , the external storage section 53 , the operation section 54 , the display section 55 and the transmission/reception section 56 are all connected to the control section 51 via the internal bus 50 .
The delivery date calculation device 100 shown in FIG. The functions of the unit 120, the change rate calculation unit 130, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140, the plan change unit 150, the delivery date calculation unit 160, the delivery date display unit 170, and the input unit 180 are realized.

Returning to FIG. 1, the storage unit 110 includes a received order information storage unit 111 that stores received order information indicating an order received from a customer, and a product master information storage unit 112 that stores product master information that is basic product information. . The storage unit 110 also includes an item master information storage unit 113 that stores item master information, which is basic information about items, an inventory information storage unit 114 that stores inventory information indicating the inventory of products and items, and an item backlog. An order backlog information storage unit 115 for storing backorder information is provided. The storage unit 110 also includes a delivery record information storage unit 116 that stores delivery record information indicating the supplier's delivery record, and a plan information storage unit 117 that stores plan information indicating plans related to product manufacturing. The storage unit 110 also includes a sufficiency rate information storage unit 118 that stores sufficiency rate information indicating the sufficiency rate of articles used for assembly, and an input information storage unit 119 that stores input information from the user.

FIG. 3A is a diagram showing a display example of received order information according to the present embodiment. The received order information is, for example, information displayed in the form of a table shown in FIG. 3A. The received order information includes "received order number" indicating the identification number of the order received by the manufacturer from the customer, "customer name" indicating the name of the customer, "product number" indicating the identification number of the ordered product, Includes information corresponding to each item such as "quantity" indicating the quantity of the product, "price" indicating the total amount of sales of the ordered product, and "delivery date" indicating the delivery date of the ordered product to be answered to the customer. ing. For example, an order with an order number of ON0001 has a customer name of CL01, two product numbers of P01 and P02, two product quantities of N01 and N02, a total amount of M01, and a delivery date of Ya. /Ma/Da. That is, the received order information storage unit 111 shown in FIG. 1 stores information such as a customer name, a product number, a quantity, an amount, and a delivery date as received order information for each received order. In the received order information storage unit 111, for example, when an order is received from a customer, the information of items other than the delivery date reply date is updated by the input to the input unit 180 by the salesperson who is the user. Further, in the received order information storage unit 111, the information in the item of the delivery date reply date is updated when the delivery date calculation unit 160 calculates the delivery date.

FIG. 3B is a diagram showing a display example of product master information according to the present embodiment. The product master information is, for example, information displayed in the form of a table shown in FIG. 3B. The product master information includes a "product number" that indicates the product identification number, a "product series" that indicates the product series name, a "unit price" that indicates the unit price of the product, a "use article" that indicates the articles used in the product, Information corresponding to each item such as "assembly line" indicating the assembly line for assembling the product is included. For example, a product with a product number P01 has a product series of PS01, a unit price of MP01, articles used in the product of IN01, IN02, . That is, the product master information storage unit 112 shown in FIG. 1 stores information such as product series, unit price, articles to be used, and assembly line as product master information for each product. The information in the product master information storage unit 112 is updated by input to the input unit 180 by the production manager who is the user, for example, when it is decided to start manufacturing the product.

FIG. 3C is a diagram showing a display example of article master information according to the present embodiment. The article master information is, for example, information displayed in the form of a table shown in FIG. 3C. The item master information includes "item code" indicating the identification number of the item, "item name" indicating the name of the item, "item group" indicating the group of items, "supplier" indicating the name of the supplier who provides the item, It includes information corresponding to each item such as "procurement LT" indicating the lead time for procurement of goods, "purchase unit price" indicating the unit price when purchasing the goods, and the like. For example, a product with an item code of I01 has an item name of IN01, an item group of IG01, a supplier of IS01, a procurement lead time of ILT01, and a purchase unit price of MI01. That is, the article master information storage unit 113 shown in FIG. 1 stores information such as an article name, article group, supplier, procurement lead time, and purchase unit price as article master information for each article. The article master information storage unit 113 is updated with information, for example, by input to the input unit 180 by a production manager who is a user when it is decided to start manufacturing a product.

FIG. 4A is a diagram showing a display example of product inventory information according to the present embodiment. The inventory information storage unit 114 shown in FIG. 1 stores, as inventory information, product inventory information indicating product inventory and article inventory information indicating article inventory. The product inventory information is, for example, information displayed in the form of a table shown in FIG. 4A. The product inventory information includes "product number", "total inventory quantity" that indicates the total amount of the product in stock, "allocation quantity" that indicates the quantity of product inventory that has been allocated to the sales order, and the amount that has been allocated to the sales order. It contains information corresponding to each item such as "unallocated inventory quantity" indicating the inventory quantity of products that are not in stock, and "update date" indicating the update date of product inventory information. For example, a product with a product number P01 has a total inventory quantity of TP01, an allocated inventory quantity of TPA01, an unallocated inventory quantity of TPB01, and an update date of Yc/Mc/Dc. That is, the inventory information storage unit 114 stores information such as the total inventory quantity, the allocated inventory quantity, the unallocated inventory quantity, the update date, etc. as the product inventory information for each product. Note that the inventory information storage unit 114 stores information according to input to the input unit 180 by an inventory manager who is a user, for example, when inventory management is started after the completion of manufacturing of a product, or when product inventory is allocated to an order received. is updated.

FIG. 4B is a diagram showing a display example of article inventory information according to the present embodiment. Also, the article inventory information is information displayed in the form of a table shown in FIG. 4B, for example. The item inventory information includes "item code", "total inventory amount" indicating the total inventory amount of the item, "allocated inventory amount" indicating the inventory amount of the item already allocated to product assembly, and It includes information corresponding to each item such as "unallocated inventory quantity" indicating the inventory quantity of items that have not been allocated, and "update date" indicating the update date of the item inventory information. For example, an article with an article code of I01 has a total inventory quantity of TI01, an allocated inventory quantity of TIA01, an unallocated inventory quantity of TIB01, and an update date of Ye/Me/De. That is, the inventory information storage unit 114 shown in FIG. 1 stores information such as total inventory quantity, allocated inventory quantity, unallocated inventory quantity, update date, etc. as article inventory information for each article. The information in the inventory information storage unit 114 is updated by input to the input unit 180 by the inventory manager who is the user, for example, when inventory management is started after the procurement of goods, or when inventory is allocated for product assembly. be done.

FIG. 4C is a diagram showing a display example of backlogged order information according to the present embodiment. Further, the order backlog information is, for example, information displayed in the form of a table shown in FIG. 4C. Backorder information includes "order number" that indicates the identification number of the order, "item code", "order date" that indicates the date of the order, "latest scheduled delivery date" that indicates the latest scheduled date of delivery, and change the delivery date "Scheduled delivery date before change of delivery date" that indicates the scheduled date of the previous delivery, "Latest scheduled delivery quantity" that indicates the scheduled quantity of the latest delivery, "Scheduled delivery before change of delivery date" that indicates the scheduled quantity of delivery before changing the delivery date Quantity", "Latest Scheduled Delivery Amount" indicating the estimated amount of the latest delivery, "Scheduled Delivery Times" indicating the scheduled number of deliveries, and "Delivery Change History" indicating the history of changes to the delivery date. include. For example, an order with an order number of HN0001 has an item code of I01, an order date of Yg/Mg/Dg, a latest scheduled delivery date of Yh/Mh/Dh, a scheduled delivery date before the delivery date change of Yi/Mi/Di, and a latest delivery date of Yi/Mi/Di. The scheduled quantity is N11, the scheduled delivery quantity before the delivery date change is N12, the latest scheduled delivery amount is M11, the scheduled delivery frequency is N13, and the delivery date change history is HH01, HH02, . That is, the backlogged order information storage unit 115 shown in FIG. Information such as planned amount, planned number of deliveries, delivery date change history, etc. is stored for each order. For example, when an order is placed with a supplier, the order backlog information storage unit 115 stores information such as when there is a change in the scheduled delivery date, the scheduled delivery quantity, the scheduled delivery amount, or the scheduled number of deliveries after the order is placed. The information is updated by the user's input to the input unit 180 .

FIG. 4D is a diagram showing a display example of delivery record information according to the present embodiment. Also, the delivery record information is information displayed in the form of a table shown in FIG. 4D, for example. The delivery record information includes the delivery identification number “delivery number”, “order number”, “item code”, “delivery date” indicating the delivery date, “delivery quantity” indicating the quantity of delivery, and the number of deliveries. It contains information corresponding to each item such as "number of deliveries" shown. For example, an order with a delivery number of NN0001 has an order number of HN0001, an article code of I01, a delivery date of Ym/Mm/Dm, a delivery quantity of N11, and a delivery frequency of N13. That is, the delivery record information storage unit 116 shown in FIG. 1 stores information such as an order number, an article code, a delivery date, a delivery quantity, and a delivery frequency as delivery record information for each delivery. The information in the delivery record information storage unit 116 is updated by, for example, input to the input unit 180 by the person in charge of placing an order, who is the user, when there is a delivery by the supplier.

FIG. 5A is a diagram showing a display example of production planning information according to the present embodiment. The plan information storage unit 117 shown in FIG. 1 stores, as plan information, production plan information indicating a production plan for products, procurement plan information indicating a procurement plan for goods, and assembly plan information indicating an assembly plan for products. . The production plan information is, for example, information displayed in the form of a table shown in FIG. 5A. The production plan information includes information corresponding to each item such as "plan change date" indicating the date of change of the production plan, "product number", and "planned date" indicating the date of creation of the production plan. For example, a production plan with a plan change date of Yo/Mo/Do has a product number of P01 and a plan date of Yp/Mp/Dp. That is, the plan information storage unit 117 stores information such as a product number and a plan date as production plan information for each plan change date. Although not shown, the production plan information also stores the planned production quantity for each planned production date of the product for each plan change date.

FIG. 5B is a diagram showing a display example of procurement plan information according to the present embodiment. Also, the procurement plan information is, for example, information displayed in the form of a table shown in FIG. 5B. Procurement plan information includes "update date" that indicates the update date of the procurement plan, "product code", "procurement quantity" that indicates the quantity to be procured, and "target date" that indicates the target date for evaluation of the procurement quantity. Contains information corresponding to each item. For example, a procurement plan with updated dates of Yr/Mr/Dr has an article code of I01, a procurement quantity of N31, and target dates of Ys/Ms/Ds. That is, the plan information storage unit 117 shown in FIG. 1 stores information such as product codes, procurement quantities, and target dates as procurement plan information for each update date.

FIG. 5C is a diagram showing a display example of assembly plan information according to the present embodiment. Also, the assembly plan information is, for example, information displayed in the form of a table shown in FIG. 5C. The assembly plan information includes "Assembly number" that indicates the identification number of the assembly plan, "Latest scheduled assembly date" that indicates the latest scheduled date of assembly, "Previous scheduled assembly date" that indicates the scheduled date of the previous assembly, "Assembly product number" that indicates the identification number of the target product, "Assembly quantity" that indicates the quantity of assembly, "Assembly line", "Assembly execution probability" that indicates the execution probability of assembly, "" that indicates the update date of the assembly plan It contains information corresponding to each item such as "update date". For example, in the assembly plan with the assembly number A01, the latest scheduled assembly date is Yu/Mu/Du, the previous scheduled assembly date is Yv/Mv/Dv, the assembly product number is P01, ..., the assembly quantity is N41, and the assembly line is L01. , the assembly execution probability is AS01, and the update date is Yw/Mw/Dw. That is, the plan information storage unit 117 shown in FIG. 1 stores information such as the latest scheduled assembly date, the previous scheduled assembly date, the assembly product number, the assembly quantity, the assembly line, the assembly execution probability, the update date, etc. for each assembly as the assembly plan information. remembered in Note that the plan information storage unit 117 stores information, for example, when a production plan is created by an input unit 180 by a production manager who is a user, and information is stored when the plan is changed by the plan change unit 150. Updated. As for the assembly number, a larger number is assigned as the scheduled assembly date is later.

FIG. 6A is a diagram showing a display example of assembly filling rate information according to the present embodiment. The sufficiency rate information storage unit 118 shown in FIG. 1 stores, as sufficiency rate information, assembly sufficiency rate information indicating the sufficiency rate of all articles used for assembly and article sufficiency rate information indicating the sufficiency rate of each article used for assembly. Remember. The assembly sufficiency rate information is, for example, information displayed in the form of a table shown in FIG. 6A. The assembly sufficiency rate information includes the ``assembly number'', the ``sufficiency rate'' that indicates the follow-up rate to the change in the supplier's plan for all items used for assembly, and the ``sufficiency rate'' that indicates the sufficiency rate for all items used for assembly. ” and other information corresponding to each item is included. For example, the assembly with assembly number A01 has a follow-up rate of AF01 and a sufficiency rate of AS01. That is, the sufficiency rate information storage unit 118 shown in FIG. 1 stores information such as a follow-up rate and a sufficiency rate as assembly sufficiency rate information for each assembly.

FIG. 6B is a diagram showing a display example of article sufficiency rate information according to the present embodiment. Also, the article sufficiency rate information is, for example, information displayed in the form of a table shown in FIG. 6B. The item sufficiency rate information includes the 'item code', the 'following rate' indicating the follow-up rate to the change in the plan of the supplier supplying the item, the 'sufficiency rate' indicating the sufficiency rate of the item, and the update date of the item sufficiency rate information. It contains information corresponding to each item such as "update date" indicating the date. For example, an article with an article code of I01 has a follow-up rate of IF01, a sufficiency rate of IS01, and an update date of Yw/Mw/Dw. That is, the sufficiency rate information storage unit 118 shown in FIG. 1 stores information such as a follow-up rate, a sufficiency rate, and an update date as article sufficiency rate information for each article. The information in the sufficiency rate information storage unit 118 is updated, for example, when the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 calculates the follow-up rate or when the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 calculates the sufficiency rate.

FIG. 6C is a diagram showing a display example of input information according to the present embodiment. The input information is, for example, information displayed in the form of a table shown in FIG. 6C. There are two types of input information: “evaluation period” and “threshold”. contains information corresponding to That is, the input information storage unit 119 shown in FIG. 1 stores information on the evaluation period, the threshold value, the updater, and the update date as the input information. For example, on the update date Yw/Mw/Dw, the evaluation period value is updated to VH01 and the threshold value is updated to VS01 by the input of W01 who is the updater. Information in the input information storage unit 119 is updated by, for example, an input to the input unit 180 by a production manager who is a user.

The follow-up rate calculation unit 120 shown in FIG. 1 calculates the follow-up rate based on the supplier's delivery record information stored in the storage unit 110 .

The follow-up rate calculation unit 120 first refers to the input information stored in the input information storage unit 119 to acquire the value of the evaluation period. For example, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 acquires VH01, which is the value of the evaluation period shown in FIG. 6C. Here, the value of the evaluation period is the value of the update period of the procurement plan determined by the manufacturing manager. If so, the value of the evaluation period is 5. Returning to FIG. 1, next, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 refers to the article master information stored in the article master information storage unit 113 and selects an article to be evaluated for the follow-up rate. For example, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 selects the article whose article code is I01 shown in FIG. 4B.

Returning to FIG. 1, next, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 refers to the procurement plan information stored in the plan information storage unit 117, and calculates the procurement quantity of the selected item within the current evaluation period and the procurement quantity within the previous evaluation period. Get the procurement quantity and For example, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 acquires the procurement quantity N31 if the target date Ys/Ms/Ds shown in FIG. Acquire all the procurement quantity within the period. Returning to FIG. 1, next, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 subtracts the amount obtained by subtracting the daily accumulated procurement quantity within the previous evaluation period from the daily accumulated procurement quantity within the current evaluation period. Calculate

As described above, since the evaluation period is the period for updating the procurement plan, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 acquires the procurement quantity of the current plan and the procurement quantity of the previous plan, is calculated as the difference quantity between the accumulated quantity and the accumulated procurement quantity of the previous plan. Specifically, the evaluation period is T, the selected item is m, the natural number from 1 to T is t (1 ≤ t ≤ T), the procurement quantity within the current evaluation period is N (m, t), the previous Assuming that the procurement quantity within the evaluation period is O(m, t), the plan fluctuation quantity is a value calculated by the formula shown in Equation 1 below.

Next, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 refers to the delivery record information stored in the delivery record information storage unit 116 and acquires the supply quantity supplied from the supplier during the current evaluation period. For example, if the delivery date Ym/Mm/Dm shown in FIG. Get all the delivery quantity within the period. Returning to FIG. 1, next, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 subtracts the amount obtained by subtracting the daily accumulated procurement quantity within the previous evaluation period from the daily accumulated supply quantity within the current evaluation period. Calculate Therefore, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 calculates the difference between the accumulated supply quantity supplied following the increased procurement quantity by the supplier due to the change of the plan from the previous time to the current plan and the accumulated quantity of the procurement quantity of the previous plan. A follow-up variation quantity, which is a differential quantity, is calculated. Specifically, when the supply quantity within the current evaluation period is R(m, t), the follow-up fluctuation quantity is a value calculated by the formula shown in Equation 2 below.

Further, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 calculates the follow-up rate by calculating the ratio of the follow-up variable quantity to the planned change quantity, and stores the calculated follow-up rate in the fill rate information storage unit 118 as the follow-up rate of the goods fill rate information. do. Specifically, when the follow-up rate is T(m, t), the follow-up rate T(m, t) is a value calculated by the following formula (3). Note that N(m, 0) is the minimum procurement quantity that satisfies N(m, t)=R(m, t), and O(m, 0) is N(m , 0)=R(m, 0) is the minimum value of the procurement quantity.

FIG. 7 is a graph showing the relationship between fluctuations in procurement quantity and supply quantity due to plan changes according to the present embodiment. Note that the follow-up rate T(m, t) does not take a negative value and always takes a value in the range of 0% to 100%. That is, 0≦T(m, t)≦1 always holds for the follow-up rate T(m, t). For example, in the graph shown in FIG. 7, the procurement quantity of the previous plan is O(m, 0)=0, O(m, 1)=20, O(m, 2)=40, O(m, 3) =60, O(m,4)=80, O(m,5)=100. In addition, the procurement quantity of this plan is N (m, 0) = 0, N (m, 1) = 40, N (m, 2) = 60, N (m, 3) = N (m, 4) =N(m,5)=100. In addition, the supply quantity of this plan is R (m, 0) = 0, R (m, 1) = 20, R (m, 2) = 40, R (m, 3) = 80, R (m, 4)=R(m,5)=100. In this case, the follow-up rate T(m, t) is T(m, t)={(0-0)+(20-20)+(40-40)+(80-60)+(100-80) +(100-100)/(0-0)+(40-20)+(60-40)+(100-60)+(100-80)+(100-100)}=40/100=0. 4.

Returning to FIG. 1, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 repeats the selection of items and the follow-up rate calculation until the follow-up rates of all the articles to be evaluated are calculated.

Here, the significance of the formula shown in Equation 3 above is that when defining the ability of the supplier to follow the new plan, it took It is to use the change in quantity due to the difference in the period and the change of the plan as the evaluation material. For example, with respect to the period, the value of the follow-up rate T(m, t) increases when the track is followed earlier. Also, for example, even if it is not possible to completely follow the quantity, it is expected to estimate the ability to supply the goods by observing the degree of partial follow-up. For example, in the graph shown in FIG. 7, at t=3, the procurement quantity increased to O(m,3)=60 and N(m,3)=100, while R(m,3)= It is 80. For this reason, it is presumed that it has the ability to follow the increase of 20 pieces out of the increase of 40 pieces.

In addition, the ability to follow described above can be interpreted as being caused by, for example, the ability of the supplier to maintain and manage inventory for each item, the transportation lead time, the ability of the facility for assembly, and the like. Therefore, by observing the follow-up rate T(m, t), the delivery date calculation device 100 can estimate, for example, the tendency of follow-up ability for each supplier common to all goods, or It is possible to infer the tendency of each following ability. As a result, by observing the follow-up rate T(m, t), the delivery date calculation device 100 can be expected to be applied to various cases of changes in the procurement plan. For this reason, the delivery date calculation device 100 adopts a method of storing and accumulating information indicating the calculated follow-up rate T(m, t) for each evaluation period, for example, in order to use it for estimating the inventory sufficiency rate, which will be described later. You may

In this case, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120, for example, when statistically estimating the follow-up ability of a supplier, the reliability of the estimation result increases as the number of samples used for estimation increases, and the final answer It is expected that the accuracy of the delivery date will be improved. Therefore, when estimating the follow-up rate, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 may estimate the follow-up amount of the new plan based on the follow-up rate in each evaluation period calculated retroactively to a plurality of past evaluation periods. . For example, when n is a natural number, follow-up rate calculation section 120 calculates the follow-up rate for each evaluation period of t=0, −T, −2T, . , the average value of the calculated (n+1) follow-up rates may be calculated as the follow-up rate of the new plan. That is, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 calculates a first follow-up rate calculated based on the samples in the first period corresponding to t=0, and a second follow-up rate calculated based on the samples in the second period corresponding to t=-T. 3rd tracking rate calculated based on the samples of the 3rd period corresponding to t=-2T, ..., (n+1)th tracking calculated based on the samples of the (n+1)th period corresponding to t=-nT The average rate may be calculated as the follow-up rate of the new plan.

Here, it is preferable that the value of n is statistically large because the reliability of the estimation result improves as the number of samples increases. However, the ability to track as described above may have changed significantly due to changes in the supplier's ability to supply, for example, additional equipment, changes in inventory holding schemes, and the like. In this case, it is not appropriate for the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 to use performance information before the supplier's ability to supply changes when estimating the follow-up ability described above.

Here, for example, regarding the average value of the follow-up rate of a group of t = 0, -T, ..., -nT and the average value of the follow-up rate of a group of t = -nT, -(n+1)T, ..., -2nT Consider a case in which a significant difference is recognized as an example of a predetermined relationship. In this case, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 can estimate that the follow-up ability is changed during the evaluation period before and after t=-nT. Therefore, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 may adjust the past evaluation period when calculating the above-described average value by calculating the follow-up rate using the minimum n that can be estimated as described above.

For example, when n=2, the absolute value of the difference between the average value of the first and second follow-up rates and the average value of the second and third follow-up rates is a predetermined threshold value. may exceed. In this case, the follow-up rate calculator 120 may calculate the average value of only the first follow-up rate and the second follow-up rate as the follow-up rate of the new plan. By doing so, the delivery date calculation device 100 calculates the average value of the first follow-up rate, the second follow-up rate, and the third follow-up rate as the follow-up rate of the new plan. An appropriate follow-up rate can be calculated based on performance information after a change in ability.

In addition, for example, a conventionally known t-test may be used to detect the difference between the mean follow-up rates of the two groups. Here, the t-test is a conventionally known t It is a statistical test that utilizes following a distribution. In the t-test, if the calculated test statistic is a value within the range of 5% or less, which is the significance level of the t-distribution, the null hypothesis is rejected and the alternative hypothesis opposed to the null hypothesis is adopted. Therefore, in the delivery date calculation device 100, for example, the hypothesis that the difference in the average values of the follow-up rates of the two groups is smaller than the threshold is set as the null hypothesis, and the test statistics calculated from the difference in the average values of the follow-up rates of the two groups Since the null hypothesis is rejected when the amount falls within the range of 5% or less of the t distribution, a significant difference is recognized in the mean follow-up rates of the two groups.

For this reason, in the delivery date calculation device 100, for example, the range of n is set from 10 to 100, and the average value of the follow-up rates of the two groups is repeatedly calculated from the minimum value of 10 to the maximum value of 100, and the t-test is performed. A value of n that minimizes the probability that there is no significant difference in the group follow-up rate averages may be adopted. Specifically, the value of n that maximizes the absolute value of the test statistic may be adopted among the values of n in which the test statistic is in the range of 5% or less of the t distribution. By estimating the ability to follow based on the value of n selected in this way, an appropriate follow-up rate can be calculated based on performance information after the supply ability of the supplier has changed.

Returning to FIG. 1, the fluctuation rate calculation unit 130 calculates the fluctuation rate between the currently planned procurement quantity and the previous planned procurement quantity of the article to be evaluated. The volatility calculation unit 130 calculates the volatility by calculating the multiplying factor of the accumulated procurement quantity of the current plan to the accumulated procurement quantity of the previous plan for the selected item. Specifically, when the rate of change is U(m, t), the rate of change U(m, t) is a value calculated by the following formula (4).

Note that the fluctuation rate U(m, t) does not take a negative value, and 0≦U(m, t) always holds for the fluctuation rate U(m, t). For example, in the graph shown in FIG. 7, the rate of change U(m, t) is U(m, t)=(40+60+100+100+100/20+40+60+80+100}=400/300≈1.33.

Returning to FIG. 1, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 calculates the sufficiency rate of the articles used for assembly in the current plan based on the follow-up rate calculated by the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 and the change rate calculated by the change rate calculation unit 130. Calculate Note that the sufficiency rate is an index for determining whether or not the quantity of goods in stock on a specific day exceeds the quantity used for assembly on that day. Specifically, first, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 refers to the assembly plan information stored in the plan information storage unit 117 and selects an assembly to be evaluated for the sufficiency rate. For example, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 selects the assembly with the assembly number A01 shown in FIG. 5C.

Returning to FIG. 1, next, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 refers to the product master information stored in the product master information storage unit 112 and the product master information stored in the product master information storage unit 113, and selects Select items to use for assembly. For example, since the assembly product number P01 shown in FIG. 5C matches the product number P01 shown in FIG. 3B, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 Select the item with the item code I01.

Returning to FIG. 1, next, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 stores the product inventory information stored in the inventory information storage unit 114, the procurement plan information stored in the plan information storage unit 117, and the order backlog information storage unit 115. By referring to the stored order backlog information, it is determined whether or not the stock quantity of the article selected at the time of assembly is insufficient. For example, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 refers to the article inventory information using the article code I01 as identification information, and acquires TI01, TIA01, and TIB01, which are the inventory quantities shown in FIG. 4B. In addition, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 refers to the procurement plan information using the item code I01 as identification information, and the target date Ys/Ms/Ds shown in FIG. 5B becomes the latest scheduled assembly date Yu/Mu shown in FIG. If it is before /Du, the procurement quantity N31 is acquired, and other procurement quantities before the latest scheduled assembly date are also acquired. In addition, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 refers to the backlogged order information using the item code I01 as identification information, and the latest scheduled delivery date Yh/Mh/Dh shown in FIG. 4C is the latest scheduled assembly date Yu/Mu/Du. N11, which is the latest scheduled delivery quantity, is acquired before the latest scheduled assembly date, and other latest scheduled delivery quantities before the latest scheduled assembly date are also acquired. Then, based on these quantities, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 determines whether or not an inventory quantity sufficient to assemble the assembly quantity N41 on the latest scheduled assembly dates Yu/Mu/Du can be secured. .

Returning to FIG. 1, next, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 calculates the sufficiency rate of the selected item as 100% if the inventory quantity of the item selected at the time of assembly is not insufficient, and the calculated sufficiency rate is the item sufficiency rate It is stored in the sufficiency rate information storage unit 118 as the information sufficiency rate. On the other hand, when the inventory quantity of the article selected at the time of assembly is insufficient, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 causes the change rate calculation unit 130 to calculate the change rate, and the calculated change rate and the follow-up rate calculated by the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 is multiplied, that is, by summation, to calculate the fill rate. For example, in the graph shown in FIG. 7, the rate of change U(m, t) and the rate of follow-up T(m, t) are U(m, t)≈1.33 and T(m, t)=0.4. Therefore, the fill rate is U(m, t)×T(m, t)≈0.53.

Returning to FIG. 1, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 next calculates sufficiency rates for all items used in the selected assembly, and uses the follow-up rate and sufficiency rate of the item with the lowest sufficiency rate as assembly sufficiency rate information. Stored in the sufficiency rate information storage unit 118 . Further, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 stores the sufficiency rate of the article with the lowest sufficiency rate in the plan information storage unit 117 as the assembly execution probability of the assembly plan information. This is because if even one of the items used in the selected assembly is out of stock, the assembly cannot be performed. Therefore, the sufficiency rate of the item with the lowest sufficiency rate becomes the sufficiency rate of all the items used in the assembly, and the This is because it also increases the execution probability. Then, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 repeats assembly selection, item selection, and sufficiency rate calculation until the sufficiency rate for each item is calculated for all the sufficiency rate evaluation targets.

The plan change unit 150 changes the current plan when the sufficiency rate calculated by the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 does not exceed a predetermined threshold. Specifically, first, the plan change unit 150 refers to the assembly plan information stored in the plan information storage unit 117 and the input information stored in the input information storage unit 119, and selects an assembly with a small assembly number, that is, an assembly with a small assembly number. Assemblies whose assembly execution probability is equal to or less than the threshold are selected in order from the assembly with the earliest latest scheduled assembly date. For example, if the assembly execution probability AS01 shown in FIG. 5C is less than or equal to the threshold value VS01 shown in FIG. 6C, the plan change unit 150 selects the assembly with the assembly number A01. When the fulfillment rate is about 0.53 as shown in the graph of FIG. 7, if 0.9 is input as the threshold value, the assembly execution probability will be equal to or less than the threshold value.

Returning to FIG. 1, next, the plan change unit 150 determines whether or not the candidate date for which the assembly execution probability of the selected assembly exceeds the threshold falls within the target period of the current plan. For example, the plan change unit 150 causes the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 to calculate the assembly execution probability when the latest scheduled assembly date is delayed by one day, that is, the sufficiency rate. It is determined whether or not the candidate date is within the target period of the current plan. Next, the plan change unit 150 determines that if the candidate date is not the target period of the current plan, the selected assembly is to be carried out after the next plan. on.

On the other hand, if the candidate date is the target period of the current plan, the plan change unit 150 selects the assembly and schedule from among the assemblies for which the assembly execution probability exceeds the threshold on the latest scheduled assembly date after the calculated candidate date. An assembly whose assembly execution probability exceeds a threshold value even if it is replaced is selected, and the schedules of the selected assemblies are switched. For example, the plan change unit 150 causes the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 to move forward to the latest scheduled assembly date of the selected assembly whose assembly execution probability is equal to or less than the threshold for the assembly whose latest scheduled assembly date is after the candidate date. Calculate the sufficiency rate. In addition, the plan change unit 150 calculates the sufficiency rate when moving forward in order of the latest scheduled assembly date, and determines whether or not the calculated sufficiency rate exceeds the threshold. Then, if the calculated sufficiency rate exceeds the threshold, the plan change unit 150 selects an assembly whose assembly execution probability exceeds the threshold even if the schedules are switched, and switches the schedules of the selected assemblies. If there is no assembly for which the calculated sufficiency rate exceeds the threshold, the plan changing unit 150 simply changes the latest scheduled assembly date to the candidate date without replacing the selected assembly with the subsequent assembly.

Then, the plan change unit 150 repeats the selection, replacement, or postponement of assembly until the assembly execution probability exceeds the threshold for all the assemblies targeted in the current plan, changes the assembly plan information, and changes the changed assembly plan. The information is stored in the plan information storage unit 117 as assembly plan information of a new plan. Plan change unit 150 generates production plan information for a new plan change date based on the changed assembly plan information, and stores the generated new production plan information in plan information storage unit 117 .

The delivery date calculation unit 160 refers to the production plan information stored in the plan information storage unit 117 and calculates the delivery date of the product based on the planned production quantity for each planned production date of the product. calculate. Specifically, first, the delivery date calculating unit 160 refers to the received order information stored in the received order information storage unit 111 and selects the received order for which the delivery date is to be answered. For example, the delivery date calculation unit 160 selects the received order with the received order number ON0001 shown in FIG. Identify.

Returning to FIG. 1, next, the delivery date calculation unit 160 selects products to be the target of the selected received order in order of product number. For example, the delivery date calculation unit 160 selects the product with the product number P01 shown in FIG. 3A. Next, the delivery date calculation unit 160 refers to the product inventory information in the inventory information storage unit 114 and determines whether the unallocated inventory quantity exceeds the ordered quantity, thereby determining whether the inventory quantity is insufficient. determine whether For example, the delivery date calculation unit 160 refers to the product inventory information using the product number P01 as identification information, and determines whether the unallocated inventory quantity TPB01 shown in FIG. 4A exceeds the order quantity N01 for the product. determine whether

Returning to FIG. 1, next, the delivery date calculation unit 160 calculates the shipping possible date of the selected product as the same day if the inventory quantity is not insufficient. On the other hand, if the inventory quantity is insufficient, the delivery date calculation unit 160 refers to the production plan information stored in the plan information storage unit 117, specifies the planned production quantity for each planned production date of the selected product, and starts production. The shippable date is calculated by calculating the scheduled production completion date, which is the date when the accumulated planned quantity exceeds the insufficient quantity. For example, the delivery date calculation unit 160 refers to the production plan information using the product number P01 as identification information, and calculates the accumulated quantity by summing up the planned production quantities for the days following the current date. In addition, when the accumulated quantity calculated by calculating the shortfall quantity (N01-TPB01) exceeds the delivery date calculation unit 160, the delivery is possible by adding the number of days for adding up the planned production quantity to the current date. Calculate the date. Note that the delivery date calculation unit 160 determines that shipment is not possible if there is no day on which the accumulated quantity exceeds the insufficient quantity even if the planned production quantity is accumulated on the last planned production date, and the selected order is not shipped. A non-shippable flag (not shown) is set to ON.

Next, the delivery date calculation unit 160 temporarily stores the calculated shippable date, and repeats the product selection and the shippable date calculation until the shippable date is calculated for all the products to be ordered. Then, the delivery date calculation unit 160 calculates the delivery date based on the latest date among the calculated shipping possible dates of all the products, and stores the calculated delivery date in the received order information storage unit 111 as the delivery date reply date of the received order information. Remember.

FIG. 8 is a diagram showing a display example of the delivery date calculation result screen according to the present embodiment. The delivery date display unit 170 displays delivery date information indicating the delivery date calculated by the delivery date calculation unit 160 . The delivery date display unit 170 displays a delivery date calculation result screen shown in FIG. 8 as an example of delivery date information. On the delivery date calculation result screen, for example, a character image saying "The calculated delivery date is as follows", "order number", "customer name", "product number", "quantity", "delivery date A character image indicating the name of the item "day" is displayed. Further, on the delivery date calculation result screen, for example, character images indicating the values of the above items such as "ON0001", "CL01", "P01, P02", "N01, N02", and "Ya/Ma/Da". is displayed.

The input unit 180 receives, for example, an evaluation period and a threshold as input information from the production manager. The input unit 180 also receives input of product master information, article master information, and plan information from the production manager, for example. The input unit 180 also receives input of, for example, received order information from a salesperson, inventory information from an inventory manager, delivery record information from an orderer, and backlog information.

Next, the operation of the delivery date calculation device 100 will be described. In the input information storage unit 119, the delivery date calculation device 100 stores the input information such as the evaluation period and the threshold input by the user, and performs tracking for each item by nighttime batch processing, which is a batch processing performed daily at night. Calculate the rate and change the plan. For example, the delivery date calculation device 100 executes a follow-up ability calculation process and a plan change process, which will be described later, at midnight every day. Further, the delivery date calculation device 100 calculates the delivery date when the user inputs that the delivery date is to be answered for the received order specified by the user. For example, the delivery date calculation device 100 executes the delivery date calculation process described later when the salesperson inputs to the customer that the delivery date is to be answered for the designated order.

FIG. 9 is a flowchart showing the flow of follow-up rate calculation processing according to the present embodiment. Next, the follow-up rate calculation process executed by the follow-up rate calculator 120 will be described with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG. The follow-up rate calculation process is a process of calculating the follow-up rate of the supplier when the quantity requested of the supplier for the goods changes due to a change in the plan, based on the delivery record of the supplier. The follow-up rate calculation unit 120 starts the follow-up ability calculation process in the daily nighttime batch process.

When the followability calculation process is started, first, the follower rate calculator 120 acquires the value of the evaluation period, and selects an article to be evaluated for the follower rate based on the value of the evaluation period (step S101). For example, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 selects the article whose article code is I01 shown in FIG. 4B.

Returning to FIG. 9, after selecting an item, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 acquires the current planned procurement quantity and the previous planned procurement quantity of the selected item, A plan variation quantity is calculated by subtracting the accumulated procurement quantity of the previous plan (step S102). For example, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 acquires all procurement quantities within the previous or current evaluation period on the target date shown in FIG.

Returning to FIG. 9, after calculating the planned variable quantity, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 acquires the supply quantity of the selected item from the supplier in the current plan, and accumulates the supply quantity following the procurement quantity in the current plan. A follow-up fluctuation quantity is calculated by subtracting the accumulated procurement quantity within the previous evaluation period from the quantity (step S103). For example, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 acquires all delivery quantities whose delivery dates are within the previous or current evaluation period shown in FIG.

Returning to FIG. 9, after calculating the follow-up fluctuation quantity, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 calculates the follow-up rate by calculating the ratio of the follow-up change quantity to the planned change quantity, and stores the calculated follow-up rate in the sufficiency rate information storage unit 118. (step S104). For example, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 calculates the follow-up rate T(m, t) calculated by the formula shown in Equation 3 above, and stores the calculated value T(m, t) in the sufficiency rate information storage unit 118. do.

After calculating the follow-up rate, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 determines whether or not the follow-up rate of all articles subject to follow-up rate evaluation has been calculated based on the value of the evaluation period (step S105). If the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 has not calculated the follow-up rates of all the articles (step S105; N), it repeats the processing of steps S101 to S105 until the follow-up rates of all the articles are calculated. On the other hand, when the follow-up rate of all articles is calculated (step S105; Y), the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 ends the follow-up ability calculation process.

FIG. 10 is a flowchart showing the flow of plan change processing according to this embodiment. Next, plan change processing executed by the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 and the plan change unit 150 will be described with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG. 10 . The plan change process is a process of changing the current plan if the sufficiency rate for each item calculated based on the follow-up rate calculated in the follow-up ability calculation process is equal to or less than a threshold. The sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 starts the plan change process in the daily nighttime batch process.

When the plan change process is started, first, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 selects an assembly for which the sufficiency rate is to be evaluated (step S201), and selects articles to be used for the selected assembly (step S202). For example, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 selects the assembly with the assembly number A01 shown in FIG. 5C. At this time, since the assembly product number P01 corresponding to the assembly matches the product number P01 shown in FIG. 3B, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 selects an article whose article code is I01.

Returning to FIG. 10, after selecting the item, for example, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 determines whether the inventory quantity of the item selected at the time of assembly is insufficient (step S203). For example, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 acquires the inventory quantities TI01, TIA01, and TIB01 shown in FIG. 4B, the procurement quantity before the latest scheduled assembly date and the latest scheduled delivery quantity shown in FIGS. It is determined whether or not there is an inventory quantity for assembling N41.

Returning to FIG. 10, when the stock quantity of the item selected at the time of assembly is insufficient (step S203; Y), the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 accumulates the previously planned procurement quantity of the item selected in the fluctuation rate calculation unit 130. A rate of change, which is a multiplying factor of the cumulative amount of the current planned procurement amount to the amount, is calculated (step S204). For example, the volatility calculator 130 calculates the volatility U(m, t) calculated by the formula shown in Equation 4 above. After calculating the variation rate, the sufficiency rate calculator 140 calculates the sufficiency rate by multiplying the calculated volatility rate by the follow-up rate calculated by the follow-up rate calculator 120 (step S205). For example, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 calculates the sufficiency rate calculated by U(m, t)×T(m, t). On the other hand, if the inventory quantity of the item selected at the time of assembly is not insufficient (step S203; N), the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 calculates the sufficiency rate of the selected item as 100% (step S206).

After calculating the sufficiency rate, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 stores the calculated sufficiency rate in the sufficiency rate information storage unit 118 (step S207), and stores all the target articles, that is, all the articles used for the selected assembly. is calculated (step S208). If the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 has not calculated the sufficiency rate of all the target articles (step S208; N), the processing of steps S202 to S208 is repeated until the sufficiency rate of all the articles is calculated. On the other hand, when the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 has calculated the sufficiency rates of all the target articles (step S208; Y), the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 uses the minimum value of the sufficiency rates of all the target articles for the selected assembly. It is stored in the sufficiency rate information storage unit 118 as the sufficiency rate of the article (step S209).

After storing the sufficiency rate, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 determines whether or not the sufficiency rate of all the articles to be used in the assembly to be evaluated for the sufficiency rate has been calculated (step S210). If the sufficiency rate of all the articles used for assembly has not been calculated (step S210; N), the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 repeats steps S201 to S210 until the sufficiency rate of all the articles used for assembly is calculated. Repeat process.

On the other hand, when the sufficiency rate of the articles used for all the assemblies has been calculated (step S210; Y), the plan change unit 150 sequentially calculates the sufficiency rate, that is, assembly An assembly whose execution probability is equal to or less than a threshold is selected (step S211). For example, if the assembly execution probability AS01 shown in FIG. 5C is less than or equal to the threshold value VS01 shown in FIG. 6C, the plan change unit 150 selects the assembly with the assembly number A01.

Returning to FIG. 10, after selecting the assembly, the plan change unit 150 determines whether or not the candidate date for which the assembly execution probability of the selected assembly exceeds the threshold falls within the target period of the current plan (step S212). For example, the plan change unit 150 determines whether or not the candidate date for which the sufficiency rate calculated by the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 with a delay of one day from the latest scheduled assembly date exceeds the threshold falls within the target period of the current plan. do. If the candidate date falls within the target period of the current plan (step S212; Y), the plan change unit 150 selects the assembly and schedule from among the assemblies whose sufficiency rate exceeds the threshold on the latest scheduled assembly date after the candidate date. It is determined whether or not there is an assembly whose sufficiency rate exceeds the threshold value even after the replacement (step S213). For example, the plan change unit 150 causes the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 to calculate the sufficiency rate at the time of schedule replacement on the candidate date in ascending order of the assembly number for assemblies whose latest scheduled assembly date is after the candidate date, and the calculated sufficiency rate is Selection of assembly and calculation of sufficiency rate are repeated until the threshold is exceeded.

If there is an assembly whose sufficiency rate exceeds the threshold value even after the schedule is changed (step S213; Y), the plan change unit 150 changes the schedule of the selected assembly with the selected assembly (step S214). On the other hand, if there is no assembly whose sufficiency rate exceeds the threshold even after the schedule is changed (step S213; N), the plan change unit 150 postpones the schedule by changing the latest scheduled assembly date to the candidate date without changing the selected assembly. Processing is executed (step S215). If the candidate date is not the target period of the current plan (step S212; N), the plan change unit 150 determines that the selected assembly will be carried out after the next plan, and sets the non-target flag for the selected assembly. Schedule postponement processing for setting ON is performed (step S215).

After the schedule is changed or postponed, the plan change unit 150 determines whether or not the sufficiency rate of the articles used in all the assemblies to be evaluated exceeds the threshold (step S216). If the sufficiency rate of all items used for assembly does not exceed the threshold (step S216; N), the plan change unit 150 repeats steps S211 to S216 until the sufficiency rate of all items used for assembly exceeds the threshold. Repeat process. On the other hand, when the sufficiency rate of all items used for assembly exceeds the threshold (step S216; Y), the plan change unit 150 stores a new plan changed by the replacement or postponement of the assembly in the plan information storage unit 117. Store (step S217) and terminate the plan change process.

FIG. 11 is a flow chart showing the flow of delivery date calculation processing according to the present embodiment. Next, the delivery date calculation process executed by the delivery date calculation unit 160 will be described with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG. 11 . The delivery date calculation process is a process of calculating the delivery date of the product by calculating the shippable date of the product based on the planned production quantity for each planned production date of the product identified from the new plan changed in the plan change process. . The delivery date calculation unit 160 starts the delivery date calculation process when an input for calculating the delivery date of the specified order is received.

When the delivery date calculation process is started, first, the delivery date calculation unit 160 selects an order for which the delivery date is to be answered based on the input from the user (step S301), and selects the products to be the target of the selected order in order of product number. (step S302). For example, the delivery date calculation unit 160 selects the received order with the received order number ON0001 shown in FIG. 3A, and selects the product with the product number P01.

Returning to FIG. 11, after selecting the product, the delivery date calculation unit 160 determines whether or not the stock quantity of the selected product is insufficient (step S303). For example, the delivery date calculation unit 160 determines whether or not TPB01, which is the unallocated inventory quantity shown in FIG. 4A, exceeds N01, which is the ordered quantity of the product. Returning to FIG. 11, when the inventory quantity is insufficient (step S303; Y), the delivery date calculation unit 160 specifies the planned production quantity for each planned production date of the selected product, and the accumulated quantity of the planned production quantity is insufficient. A possible shippable date, which is a day exceeding the calculated quantity, is calculated (step S304), and it is determined whether or not the possible shippable date cannot be calculated (step S305). For example, the delivery date calculation unit 160 calculates the number of days for adding up the scheduled production quantity when the accumulated quantity (N01-TPB01), which is the shortage quantity after adding up the planned production quantity from the next day, is calculated as the current date. Calculate the shipping possible date by adding to In addition, the delivery date calculation unit 160 determines that the possible shipping date cannot be calculated unless the accumulated quantity up to the planned production quantity on the last planned production date exceeds the insufficient quantity.

If the shipping date cannot be calculated (step S305; Y), the delivery date calculation unit 160 determines that shipping is not possible in the current plan because the shipping date will be set in the next and subsequent plans. The shipment impossibility flag is set to ON, and the delivery date calculation process ends. On the other hand, when the delivery date calculation unit 160 can calculate the shipping date (step S305; N), the delivery date calculation unit 160 temporarily stores the calculated shipping date (step S307). If the inventory quantity is not insufficient (step S303; N), the delivery date calculation unit 160 calculates the shipping possible date of the selected product as the same day (step S306), and temporarily stores the calculated shipping possible date ( step S307).

After the temporary storage, the delivery date calculation unit 160 determines whether or not the shippable dates have been calculated for all the products to be ordered (step S308). If the delivery date calculating unit 160 has not calculated the available shipping dates for all products (step S308; N), the processing of steps S302 to S308 is repeated until the available shipping dates are calculated for all products. On the other hand, when the delivery date calculation unit 160 has calculated the shipping possible dates for all the products (step S308; Y), the delivery date calculation unit 160 calculates the delivery date based on the latest date among the calculated shipping possible dates for all the products (step S309). After calculating the delivery date, the delivery date calculation unit 160 causes the delivery date display unit 170 to display the delivery date calculation result screen shown in FIG. S310), the delivery date calculation process is terminated.

As described above, according to the delivery date calculation device 100 according to the present embodiment, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 plans the requested quantity of items necessary for manufacturing the ordered product based on the delivery record of the supplier. Calculate the follow-up rate as an example of the follow-up ability of the supplier when it changes due to the change of . In addition, the delivery date calculation unit 160 calculates the delivery date of the ordered product from the changed new plan based on the follow-up rate calculated by the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 . The delivery date display unit 170 displays the calculated delivery date by displaying the delivery date calculation result screen.

By doing so, the delivery date calculation device 100 according to the present embodiment calculates the supplier's follow-up ability based on the supplier's delivery track record, and based on the calculated supplier's follow-up ability, the delivery date calculation apparatus 100 calculates the product using the article. You can calculate the delivery date. As a result, the delivery date calculation device 100 according to the present embodiment calculates the supplier's follow-up ability based on the supplier's delivery record, and calculates the delivery date of the product using the article based on the calculated supplier's follow-up ability. It is possible to improve the precision of the delivery date to be answered to the customer, as compared with the delivery date calculation device which does not do anything. Moreover, by doing so, the delivery date calculation device 100 according to the present embodiment can improve the accuracy when newly setting the procurement quantity of the article based on the calculated follow-up capability. As a result, the delivery date calculation device 100 according to the present embodiment can reduce the time and work load required for setting and adjusting the procurement quantity and inventory quantity of goods, and optimize the ordering to suppliers to It is possible to reduce the procurement quantity.

Here, stably supplying products to customers is one of the most important responsibilities of a manufacturer that manufactures mass-produced products. It is extremely important to improve the accuracy of the delivery date. A conventional delivery date answering method includes a method of allocating product inventory after receiving an order for a product, and referring to the production plan related to the product for the shortfall, and answering the shipping possible date. However, since this method does not take into account the effects of delays in parts procurement from suppliers, there is a problem in that assembly schedules are delayed due to parts shortages, leading to delays in delivery to customers.

In particular, depending on the product model, there are models that have many types and specifications of products, cannot standardize parts, have many types of parts, and have long parts procurement lead times. In such a product model, when calculating the inventory quantity of parts required to be statistically judged to be safe, the inventory quantity inevitably tends to increase. On the other hand, manufacturers tend to reduce inventories more recently, and often make efforts to keep the quantity of parts in stock to the necessary minimum. Such manufacturers finely adjust the delivery date by re-replying the desired delivery date to the supplier who supplies the parts according to the latest procurement plan. For this reason, if the adjustment fails, the inventory will run out, which will directly lead to a shortage of parts. Therefore, it is extremely important to formulate plans such as production plans, procurement plans, and assembly plans that take into account the delivery dates and quantities of parts from suppliers, and to respond to customers with delivery dates, in order to improve the delivery date compliance rate. be.

The delivery date calculation device was created in view of this situation, and improves the accuracy of the delivery date that is answered to the customer based on the procurement plan of goods, the production plan of the product, etc. A device for reducing delay. However, with the conventional delivery date calculation device, when an order is received from a customer, the inventory quantity of the product on the manufacturer's side, the scheduled production completion date, etc. are confirmed, but the inventory quantity of parts, the scheduled delivery date, etc. There are issues that have not been considered. In addition, due to the procurement lead time in the procurement of parts, the procurement quantity in the new procurement plan may increase compared to the procurement plan at the time of ordering, so negotiate with the supplier to bring forward the delivery date from the time of ordering. Sometimes. However, if the supplier cannot follow the fluctuation of the procurement plan, the shortage of parts cannot be avoided, and the production plan will not be achieved.

On the other hand, the delivery date calculation device 100 according to the present embodiment calculates the follow-up rate as the ability of the supplier to follow when the procurement plan is changed from the supplier's delivery record, and based on the calculated follow-up rate, the delivery date of the ordered product is calculated. You can calculate the delivery date.
Therefore, the delivery date calculation device 100 according to the present embodiment can calculate the delivery date in consideration of the inventory quantity of parts, the scheduled delivery date, etc. based on the follow-up rate of the supplier to the change in the procurement plan, and the calculated delivery date is It is closer to the actual delivery date than the delivery date calculated by the conventional delivery date calculation device. As a result, the delivery date calculation device 100 according to the present embodiment can improve the accuracy of the delivery date to be answered to the customer, and improve the delivery date compliance rate.

Note that, in the present embodiment, the delivery date calculation device 100 limits the main cause of delays in delivery of items used in products to changes in the item procurement plan, and based on changes in the amount of items to be procured, Although the follow-up ability of the supplier was calculated and the delivery date was calculated, the present invention is not limited to this. For example, the delivery date calculation device 100 calculates the follow-up ability of the supplier based not only on changes in the quantity of goods to be procured, but also on changes in the operation status of equipment for product assembly, the operation status of personnel, etc., and calculates the delivery date. You may That is, the delivery date calculation device 100 may calculate the delivery date in consideration of changes in plans other than the procurement plan.

Further, according to the delivery date calculation device 100 according to the present embodiment, the fluctuation rate calculation unit 130 calculates the cumulative quantity of the item procurement quantity in the current plan and the cumulative quantity of the item procurement quantity in the previous plan. Calculate the fluctuation rate of the procurement quantity of goods based on Further, the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 multiplies the follow-up rate calculated by the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 and the change rate calculated by the change rate calculation unit 130 to calculate the sufficiency rate for each item in the current plan. Then, the delivery date calculation unit 160 calculates the delivery date of the ordered product from the new plan changed based on the sufficiency rate calculated by the sufficiency rate calculation unit.

By doing so, the delivery date calculation device 100 according to the present embodiment calculates the sufficiency rate of the goods in the current plan based on the supplier's follow-up rate to the plan change and the change rate of the quantity of goods to be procured. Then, the delivery date can be calculated based on the calculated sufficiency rate. As a result, the delivery date calculation device 100 according to the present embodiment calculates the sufficiency rate of the item based on the calculated follow-up rate and change rate, and calculates the delivery date of the product using the item based on the calculated sufficiency rate. It is possible to improve the precision of the delivery date to be answered to the customer as compared with the delivery date calculation device which does not calculate the delivery date.
In addition, as in the present embodiment, the delivery date calculation device 100 preferably calculates the sufficiency rate of the article and calculates the delivery date based on the calculated sufficiency rate in order to increase the accuracy of the calculated delivery date. It is not limited to this. For example, the delivery date calculation device 100 does not need to calculate the sufficiency rate of the goods, and does not need to calculate the delivery date based on the calculated sufficiency rate.

Further, according to the delivery date calculation device 100 according to the present embodiment, the plan change unit 150 changes the plan when the sufficiency rate calculated by the sufficiency rate calculation unit 140 is equal to or less than a predetermined threshold.
By doing so, the delivery date calculation device 100 according to the present embodiment can change to a new plan based on the sufficiency rate of the article, and can calculate the delivery date of the product using the article from the changed new plan. . As a result, the delivery date calculation device 100 according to the present embodiment has a higher accuracy of the delivery date to be answered to the customer than the delivery date calculation device which does not calculate the delivery date of the ordered product from the new plan changed based on the sufficiency rate of the goods. can be enhanced.
In addition, as in the present embodiment, the delivery date calculation device 100 preferably changes to a new plan based on the sufficiency rate of goods in order to improve the accuracy of the calculated delivery date, but is not limited to this. It is not necessary to change to a new plan based on the sufficiency rate of goods. For example, the delivery date calculation device 100 may change to a new plan based on the follow-up rate of the article. Furthermore, the delivery date calculation device 100 preferably changes to a new plan before calculating the delivery date, but is not limited to this. You don't have to change to a new plan before.

Further, according to the delivery date calculation device 100 according to the present embodiment, the delivery date calculation unit 160 calculates the shipping possible date based on the scheduled production quantity for each scheduled production date of the ordered product specified from the changed new plan. By doing so, the delivery date of the product is calculated.
By doing so, the delivery date calculation apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment can calculate the delivery date without calculating the shipping possible date based on the planned production quantity for each planned production date of the ordered product specified from the changed new plan. It is possible to improve the accuracy of the delivery date to be answered to the customer rather than the device.
In the present embodiment, the delivery date calculation device 100 calculates the possible shipping date based on the planned production quantity for each scheduled production date described above in order to increase the accuracy of the calculated delivery date. It is not necessary to calculate the shippable date based on the planned production quantity. For example, the delivery date calculation device 100 may calculate the shipping possible date based on the change in the inventory quantity of the ordered product after the day after the current date.

Further, according to the delivery date calculation device 100 according to the present embodiment, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 subtracts the accumulated quantity of the previously planned product procurement quantity from the accumulated quantity of the current planned product procurement quantity. Calculate the planned fluctuation quantity. In addition, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 calculates a follow-up fluctuation obtained by subtracting the accumulated amount of the previously planned item procurement amount from the accumulated amount of the supply amount that the supplier could supply following the current planned item procurement amount. Calculate quantity. Then, the follow-up rate calculation unit 120 calculates the follow-up rate by calculating the ratio of the follow-up fluctuation quantity to the planned fluctuation quantity.

By doing so, the delivery date calculation device 100 according to the present embodiment can calculate the follow-up rate more accurately than the delivery date calculation device that does not calculate the follow-up rate by calculating the ratio of the follow-up variation quantity to the planned change quantity. , it is possible to improve the accuracy of the delivery date to reply to the customer.
In the present embodiment, the delivery date calculation device 100 calculates the ratio of the follow-up variation quantity to the planned change quantity as the follow-up rate, but the follow-up rate calculation method is not limited to this. For example, the delivery date calculation device 100 stores the ratio of the follow-up variation quantity to the planned change quantity calculated in the follow-up rate calculation process so far, and calculates the average value of all the stored ratios as the follow-up rate. good too.

In addition, according to the delivery date calculation device 100 according to the present embodiment, the change rate calculation unit 130 calculates the multiplying factor of the accumulated quantity of the goods to be procured in the current plan to the accumulated quantity of the goods to be procured in the previous plan. Calculate the rate of change by calculating
By doing so, the delivery date calculation device 100 according to the present embodiment can calculate the variation rate with higher accuracy than the delivery date calculation device that does not calculate the variation rate by calculating the above-described magnification, and responds to the customer. It is possible to improve the precision of the delivery date.
In the present embodiment, the delivery date calculation device 100 calculates, as the rate of change, the ratio of the accumulated quantity of the goods to be procured in the current plan to the accumulated quantity of the goods to be procured in the previous plan. The rate calculation method is not limited to this. For example, the delivery date calculation device 100 calculates the ratio of the quantity of goods procured in the current plan to the quantity of goods procured in the previous plan during the evaluation period for each day, and calculates the average value of the calculated ratios as the rate of change. good too.

(Change example)
In the present embodiment, the delivery date calculation device 100 is described as a device for calculating the delivery date of a product ordered by a manufacturer from a customer, and the delivery date calculation device 100 is configured to order goods, change the procurement quantity, etc. has not been explained. However, there may be a device or system that includes not only the functions of the delivery date calculation device 100 described above, but also the functions of ordering an article, changing the quantity of procurement, and the like. For example, each function of the delivery date calculation device 100 may be incorporated into a conventionally known MRP (Material Requirements Planning) system.

Here, as an example of the apparatus and system described above, information indicating the standard quantity of goods in stock, information indicating the actual quantity of goods in stock, and information indicating the planned required quantity of goods are managed. Consider an inventory management system that automatically orders and replenishes inventory when inventory is insufficient. In this case, if the inventory management system updates the required plan quantity of the item and the difference quantity obtained by subtracting the updated quantity from the actual inventory quantity of the product is less than the standard quantity, the inventory may be automatically calculated and ordered to the business partner.

Note that the reference quantity of the inventory of goods is, for example, the non-follow-up rate S (m, t), where S (m, t) is the non-follow-up rate, which is the rate at which the supply of the supplier failed to follow the procurement plan. It can be calculated as a value obtained by multiplying the initial procurement quantity O(m, t). Specifically, the reference value of the inventory of goods is a value calculated by the formula shown in Equation 5 below.

Here, the non-follow-up rate S(m, t) can also be interpreted as the proportion of the procurement quantity that should be compensated for by holding the goods in the inventory of the factory, from the formula shown in Equation 5. Further, since S(m, t)=1−T(m, t) holds, the non-following rate S(m, t) is equal to the following rate T(m, t) calculated by the following rate calculating section 120. can be calculated based on For example, if the follow-up rate T(m, t) is 0.4, S(m, t) is 0.6 (1-0.4=0.6).

As a result, the inventory management system uses the non-follow-up rate based on the follow-up rate calculated by the follow-up rate calculation unit 120, and the inventory standard for calculating the reference quantity of the article inventory based on the procurement quantity of the article in the initial plan. A quantity calculation unit may be provided. In addition, if the difference quantity obtained by subtracting the procurement quantity of the goods from the actual quantity of the goods in stock is less than the standard quantity of the goods in stock calculated by the stock reference quantity calculation section, the inventory management system An inventory replenishment quantity calculation unit may be provided for calculating the quantity to replenish the inventory of goods based on the above. The inventory management system may further include an order information transmission unit that transmits order information, which is information indicating that the quantity of goods calculated by the inventory replenishment quantity calculation unit is to be ordered from the supplier.

In this way, the inventory management system compensates for the shortfall in the tracking ability described above based on the calculated reference quantity of the inventory of the article with the inventory of the article, thereby suppressing the decrease in the sufficiency rate of the article. It can be expected that delivery delays can be eliminated.

In the case of statistically estimating the standard quantity of goods in stock, as in the case of estimating the ability of suppliers to follow, the reliability of the estimation results increases as the number of samples increases, An improvement in the accuracy of the delivery date to be answered can be expected. Therefore, when estimating the standard quantity of goods inventory, the standard quantity of goods inventory in the new plan is calculated based on the standard quantity of goods inventory in each evaluation period calculated retroactively to multiple past evaluation periods. can be estimated. For example, based on the formula shown in Equation 5, the reference quantity for each evaluation period of t = 0, -T, -2T, ..., -nT is calculated, and the average quantity of the calculated (n + 1) reference quantities is newly It may be calculated as the standard quantity of the inventory of goods in a simple plan. That is, the inventory reference quantity calculation unit calculates the first reference quantity based on the samples in the first period corresponding to t=0, and the second reference quantity calculated based on the samples in the second period corresponding to t=-T. The average quantity of the (n+1)th reference quantity calculated based on the samples of the (n+1)th period corresponding to quantity, .

In the present embodiment, the delivery date calculation device 100 calculates the follow-up rate, change rate, and sufficiency rate for each item, but is not limited to this. can also be calculated. In this case, for example, the delivery date calculation device 100 changes in units of 1,000 for a product that includes an electronic substrate component with an order lot number of 1,000 units and a large-sized component with an order lot number of 1 unit. The follow-up rate, the variation rate, and the sufficiency rate may be calculated by grouping the parts whose variation is difficult to recognize. By doing so, the delivery date calculation device 100 can easily evaluate the execution probability of assembly with high accuracy even when the total quantity of all parts does not change even if the quantity of each part changes. It becomes possible to

In this embodiment, the delivery date calculation device 100 includes a storage unit 110, a follow-up rate calculation unit 120, a change rate calculation unit 130, a sufficiency rate calculation unit 140, a plan change unit 150, a delivery date calculation unit 160, and a delivery date display unit 170. , the functions of the input unit 180 are implemented by a single computer, but the present invention is not limited to this. For example, the delivery date calculation device 100 may realize the function of the storage unit 110 by a database server different from the delivery date calculation device 100 . Further, for example, the delivery date calculation device 100 may realize the function of the plan change unit 150 by a computer different from the delivery date calculation device 100 . Further, for example, the delivery date calculation device 100 may realize the function of the input unit 180 in a mobile terminal of each user different from the delivery date calculation device 100 . That is, in the present disclosure, only the configuration in which the delivery date calculation device 100 includes the above-described functions is disclosed, but the configuration is not limited to this, and a configuration of a delivery date calculation system that separately includes the above-described functions in a plurality of computers may be used. . In this case, the delivery date calculation system requires the transmission/reception units 56 of a plurality of computers to transmit/receive information via the network.

This disclosure is capable of various embodiments and modifications without departing from the broader spirit and scope of this disclosure. In addition, the embodiments described above are for explaining the present disclosure, and do not limit the scope of the present disclosure. In other words, the scope of the present disclosure is indicated by the claims rather than the embodiments. Various modifications made within the scope of the claims and within the scope of equivalent disclosure are considered to be within the scope of the present disclosure.

This application is based on Japanese Patent Application No. 2020-019460 filed on February 7, 2020. The entire specification, claims, and drawings of Japanese Patent Application No. 2020-019460 are incorporated herein by reference.

50 internal bus, 51 control unit, 52 main storage unit, 53 external storage unit, 54 operation unit, 55 display unit, 56 transmission/reception unit, 59 control program, 100 delivery date calculation device, 110 storage unit, 111 received order information storage unit, 112 Product master information storage unit 113 Goods master information storage unit 114 Inventory information storage unit 115 Order backlog information storage unit 116 Delivery record information storage unit 117 Plan information storage unit 118 Sufficiency rate information storage unit 119 Input information Storage unit 120 follow-up rate calculation unit 130 change rate calculation unit 140 sufficiency rate calculation unit 150 plan change unit 160 delivery date calculation unit 170 delivery date display unit 180 input unit.

Claims (9)

a follow-up rate calculation unit that calculates a follow-up rate indicating a ratio of the quantity supplied by the supplier to the changed quantity based on the delivery record of the supplier when the quantity requested of the supplier for the goods changes due to a change in the plan; ,
a change rate calculation unit that calculates a rate of change in the quantity of the goods to be procured based on the quantity of the goods to be procured in the current plan and the quantity of the goods to be procured in the plan immediately preceding the current plan; ,
a sufficiency rate calculation unit that calculates the sufficiency rate of the goods in the current plan based on the follow-up rate calculated by the follow-up rate calculation unit and the change rate calculated by the change rate calculation unit;
a delivery date calculation unit that calculates a delivery date of a product using the article based on the sufficiency rate calculated by the sufficiency rate calculation unit;
a delivery date display unit for displaying delivery date information indicating the delivery date calculated by the delivery date calculation unit;
A delivery date calculation device. A plan change unit that changes the current plan when the sufficiency rate calculated by the sufficiency rate calculation unit does not exceed a predetermined threshold,
The delivery date calculation device according to claim 1. The delivery date calculation unit calculates the delivery date of the product by calculating the shippable date of the product based on the scheduled production quantity for each scheduled production date of the product specified from the plan.
The delivery date calculation device according to claim 1 or 2. The follow-up rate calculation unit calculates a plan fluctuation quantity, which is a quantity obtained by subtracting the quantity of the goods to be procured in the previous plan from the quantity of the goods to be procured in the current plan, and the supplier follows the plan. Calculate the follow-up fluctuation quantity, which is the quantity obtained by subtracting the quantity of the goods to be procured in the previous plan from the quantity that could be supplied in the previous plan, and calculate the ratio of the follow-up fluctuation quantity to the plan change quantity. calculate the rate,
The delivery date calculation device according to any one of claims 1 to 3. The volatility calculation unit calculates the volatility by calculating the ratio of the quantity of the item to be procured in the current plan to the quantity of the item to be procured in the previous plan,
The delivery date calculation device according to any one of claims 1 to 4. The follow-up rate calculation unit calculates a first follow-up rate that is the follow-up rate calculated in a first period, and a second follow-up rate that is the follow-up rate calculated in a second period that is a period before the first period. and calculate a new follow-up rate based on
The delivery date calculation device according to any one of claims 1 to 5. The follow-up rate calculation unit
The new While it is possible to calculate a reasonable follow-up rate,
When the average value of the first follow-up rate and the second follow-up rate and the average value of the second follow-up rate and the third follow-up rate are in a predetermined relationship, the first follow-up rate and the third follow-up rate are in a predetermined relationship. 2 calculating the new follow-up rate based on the average value of the follow-up rate;
The delivery date calculation device according to claim 6. A follow-up rate for calculating a follow-up rate indicating a ratio of the quantity supplied by the supplier to the changed quantity based on the supplier's delivery performance when the quantity requested of the supplier for the goods changes due to a change in the plan. a calculation step;
Variation in which the computer calculates a rate of change in the quantity of the item to be procured based on the quantity of the item to be procured in the current plan and the quantity of the item to be procured in the plan immediately preceding the current plan. a rate calculation step;
a delivery date calculation step in which the computer calculates a delivery date of a product using the article based on the follow-up rate calculated in the follow-up rate calculation step and the change rate calculated in the change rate calculation step;
Delivery date calculation method including. the computer,
a follow-up rate calculation unit that calculates a follow-up rate indicating a ratio of the quantity supplied by the supplier to the changed quantity based on the supplier's delivery record when the quantity requested of the supplier for the goods changes due to a change in the plan;
a change rate calculation unit that calculates a rate of change in the quantity of goods to be procured based on the quantity of the goods to be procured in the current plan and the quantity of the goods to be procured in the plan immediately preceding the current plan;
a delivery date calculation unit that calculates a delivery date of a product using the article based on the follow-up rate calculated by the follow-up rate calculation unit and the change rate calculated by the change rate calculation unit;
A program that acts as a

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