JP7219679B2 - Heatstroke risk assessment method and heatstroke risk assessment system - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to a method and system for assessing the risk of heatstroke.

In order to prevent heat stroke, the risk of heat stroke is evaluated and notified based on the measured temperature.

As an index for evaluating the risk of heatstroke, for example, WBGT (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature) calculated using the measured wet bulb temperature, black bulb temperature and dry bulb temperature is known. . In the heat stroke risk evaluation using WBGT, the heat stroke risk is evaluated based on the calculated WBGT.

Further, Patent Literature 1 discloses a system for evaluating heat stroke risk assessment using weather data. This system acquires temperature information that changes from moment to moment, and uses the acquired temperature information to assess the risk of heat stroke.

Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2001-67403

Effective measures to prevent heatstroke include replenishing water and salt, cooling the body with ice packs, and using cooling equipment such as spot coolers. In order to take such measures against heatstroke, advance preparation is required, and it is required to evaluate the risk of heatstroke in advance (for example, the day before).

In the heatstroke risk assessment method using the WBGT described above, the wet-bulb temperature, black-bulb temperature and dry-bulb temperature must be measured, so the risk of heatstroke cannot be evaluated in advance. Moreover, the system disclosed in Patent Literature 1 cannot evaluate the risk of heatstroke in advance because it requires actually measured temperature information.

It is conceivable to evaluate the risk of heatstroke using the predicted values of WBGT published by public institutions, but the points targeted for prediction by WBGT are limited. Therefore, there is a possibility that the predicted value of WBGT will differ between the point to be predicted by WBGT and the desired point, and the result of pre-evaluation of the risk of heat stroke at the desired point will also differ. can be considered. As a result, there is a possibility that it will be delayed to take countermeasures against heatstroke.

An object of the present invention is to evaluate the risk of heat stroke in advance and with high accuracy.

The present invention is a heat stroke risk evaluation method for evaluating the risk of heat stroke, comprising: an obtaining step of obtaining a predicted temperature at a point to be evaluated in a specific time period on an evaluation target date; A calculation step of calculating an accumulated temperature by accumulating temperatures, and an evaluation step of evaluating the risk of heat stroke based on the accumulated temperature.

Further, the present invention is a heat stroke risk evaluation system for evaluating the risk of heat stroke, comprising: an acquisition unit for acquiring an expected temperature in a specific time period on an evaluation target date at an evaluation target point; a calculation unit that calculates an accumulated temperature by accumulating expected temperatures; and an evaluation unit that evaluates the risk of heat stroke based on the accumulated temperature.

ADVANTAGE OF THE INVENTION According to this invention, the risk of heat stroke can be evaluated in advance and accurately.

It is a graph which shows the relationship between the number of heat stroke onsets, and accumulated temperature. (a) is a graph showing the relationship between the number of occurrences of heat stroke and the average daily temperature, (b) is a graph showing the relationship between the number of occurrences of heat stroke and the maximum temperature, and (c) is a graph showing the relationship between the number of heat strokes It is a graph which shows the relationship between the number of onsets and the lowest temperature. 1 is a block diagram of a heatstroke risk evaluation system according to a first embodiment of the present invention; FIG. It is a flowchart figure of the heatstroke risk-evaluation method which concerns on 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is an example of a table used for the heatstroke risk evaluation method according to the first embodiment of the present invention. It is a graph which shows the number of occurrences of heat stroke on the day when the previous night was not a tropical night and the number of heat stroke occurrences on the day when the previous night was a tropical night. It is a block diagram of a heatstroke risk evaluation system according to a second embodiment of the present invention. It is an example of the table used for the heat stroke risk-evaluation method which concerns on 2nd Embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart figure of the heatstroke risk-evaluation method based on the modification of 2nd Embodiment of this invention.

Hereinafter, a heat stroke risk evaluation method and a heat stroke risk evaluation system according to embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

<First embodiment>
First, a heat stroke risk evaluation method and a heat stroke risk evaluation system 100 according to a first embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS. 1 to 5. FIG. Here, the case of evaluating the risk of heat stroke at a construction site will be described, but this embodiment can also be applied to the evaluation of the risk of heat stroke at tourist sites and event venues.

Heatstroke is caused by exercise or work in a hot and humid environment. Effective measures to prevent heatstroke include replenishing water and salt, cooling the body with ice packs, and using cooling equipment such as spot coolers. In order to take such measures against heatstroke, advance preparation is required, and it is required to evaluate the risk of heatstroke in advance (for example, the day before).

In the method of evaluating the risk of heat stroke using WBGT, it is necessary to measure wet bulb temperature, black bulb temperature and dry bulb temperature. Therefore, the risk of heat stroke cannot be evaluated in advance. It is possible to predict the WBGT and evaluate the risk of heatstroke, but in order to predict the WBGT, in addition to the predicted value of the dry bulb temperature (expected air temperature), the wet bulb temperature and black bulb temperature are predicted. required and requires advanced technology.

WBGT prediction values are published by public institutions, but the locations subject to WBGT prediction are limited. Therefore, the risk of heat stroke at a desired point cannot be accurately evaluated in advance. As a result, there is a possibility that it will be delayed to take countermeasures against heatstroke.

The method for evaluating the risk of heat stroke according to the present embodiment acquires the expected temperature in a specific time zone of an evaluation target date at an evaluation target point (acquisition step), and integrates the expected temperature in the specific time zone to obtain an integrated temperature. Calculate (calculation step), and evaluate the risk of heatstroke based on the accumulated temperature (evaluation step). Therefore, the evaluation of the risk of heat stroke changes according to the cumulative temperature at the evaluation target point. Therefore, the risk of heat stroke at the evaluation target point can be evaluated in advance and with high accuracy.

Here, the reason why the cumulative temperature is used as an index for evaluating the risk of heatstroke will be described with reference to FIGS. 1 and 2 and Table 1. FIG.

Figures 1 and 2 show the number of workers who developed heat stroke at a given construction site (the number of heat stroke incidents) and the temperature at the construction site on the day each worker developed heat stroke (announced by the Japan Meteorological Agency). is a graph showing the relationship between ) and The horizontal axes of the graphs in FIGS. 1(a), (b), (c), and (d) are from 0:00 (24-hour system; the same shall apply hereinafter) to 6:00, from 6:00 to 12:00, and to 9:00. to 15:00 and from 00:00 to 12:00. FIG. 2(a) is a graph showing the relationship between the number of cases of heatstroke and the average daily temperature. FIG. 2(b) is a graph showing the relationship between the number of occurrences of heat stroke and maximum temperature, and FIG. 2(c) is a graph showing the relationship between the number of occurrences of heat stroke and minimum temperature. In the graphs shown in FIGS. 1 and 2, the plots are the number of occurrences of heatstroke at each temperature, and the curves are approximate curves obtained from the plots.

Table 1 summarizes the approximate curve formulas and correlation coefficients of the respective graphs shown in FIGS. The correlation coefficient is a value of 0 (zero) or more and 1 or less, and the closer it is to "1", the stronger the correlation.

As can be seen from FIGS. 1 and 2 and Table 1, the correlation coefficient between the accumulated temperature and the number of heatstroke occurrences is the correlation coefficient between the maximum temperature and the number of heatstroke It is closer to "1" compared to the correlation coefficient between the number of incidents. In other words, by using the cumulative temperature as an index for evaluating the risk of heat stroke, compared with the case of using the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature as indices for evaluating the risk of heat stroke It is possible to accurately evaluate the risk of

For this reason, in this embodiment, the cumulative temperature is used as an index for evaluating the risk of heat stroke.

In addition, the correlation coefficient between the cumulative temperature from 6:00 to 12:00 and the number of heat stroke occurrences (Fig. 1 (b)), and the cumulative temperature from 9:00 to 15:00 and the number of heat stroke occurrences The correlation coefficient (FIG. 1(c)) is closer to "1" than the correlation coefficient (FIG. 2(a)) between the daily average temperature and the number of heat stroke occurrences. That is, by using the accumulated temperature in a certain time period as an index for evaluating the risk of heat stroke, it is possible to evaluate the risk of heat stroke with higher accuracy.

As the specific time zone, 9:00 to 12:00 common to the time zone from 6:00 to 12:00 (Fig. 1(b)) and the time zone from 9:00 to 15:00 (Fig. 1(c)) A time period that includes at least is preferred.

The correlation coefficient between the cumulative temperature and the number of heat stroke cases in the time period from 6:00 to 12:00 is compared with the correlation coefficient between the cumulative temperature and the number of heat stroke cases in other time periods. Close to "1". Therefore, the time slot from 6:00 to 12:00 is more preferable as the specific time slot.

A heat stroke risk assessment system 100 according to the present embodiment is used for a heat stroke risk assessment method. The configuration of the heat stroke risk evaluation system 100 will be specifically described below.

FIG. 3 is a block diagram of the heat stroke risk assessment system 100. As shown in FIG. A heatstroke risk assessment system 100 includes a microcomputer 10 . The microcomputer 10 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit) that executes control programs and the like, a ROM (Read-Only Memory) that stores control programs and the like executed by the CPU, and a RAM (Random Access Memory), and performs arithmetic processing. The number of microcomputers 10 may be one or plural.

The microcomputer 10 is installed, for example, in a management center that manages a plurality of construction sites. The microcomputer 10 is connected to a predetermined server 1 via a computer network, and is connected via a computer network to a terminal 2 such as a personal computer installed in an office at a construction site or a smart device brought to the site. It is connected.

The microcomputer 10 includes an acquisition unit 11 that acquires the expected temperature at the evaluation target point in a specific time zone on the evaluation target day, a calculation unit 12 that calculates an integrated temperature by integrating the expected temperature in the specific time zone, and an integration and an evaluation unit 13 that evaluates the risk of heat stroke based on the temperature. The acquisition unit 11, the calculation unit 12, and the evaluation unit 13 are virtual units of the functions of the microcomputer 10. FIG.

FIG. 4 is a flow chart of the heat stroke risk evaluation method according to the present embodiment. Step S<b>401 is acquisition processing performed by the acquisition unit 11 , step S<b>402 is calculation processing performed by the calculation unit 12 , and step S<b>403 is evaluation processing performed by the evaluation unit 13 .

The acquisition unit 11 acquires from the server 1 the predicted temperature at the evaluation target point for a specific time period on the evaluation target date. The point to be evaluated and the date to be evaluated are input to the heat stroke risk evaluation system 100 in advance by the worker. The evaluation target point may be defined, for example, by latitude and longitude, or may be defined by an address. The evaluation target date is set, for example, on the day after the date on which the risk of heat stroke is evaluated.

The specific time period is input to the heat stroke risk assessment system 100 in advance by the worker. Here, the specific time period is from 6:00 to 12:00, and the acquisition unit 11 acquires expected temperatures at 6:00, 7:00, 8:00, 9:00, 10:00, 11:00 and 12:00. .

The server 1 provides hourly temperature forecasts at a number of points based on weather information delivered by the Japan Meteorological Agency, for example. The forecasted temperature delivered by the Japan Meteorological Agency is information from observation stations set up at approximately 21km intervals, and may differ greatly from the forecasted temperature at the evaluation point. The server 1 uses weather information distributed by the Japan Meteorological Agency to generate and provide predicted temperatures at points spaced less than 21 km apart by the method disclosed in Japanese Unexamined Patent Application Publication No. 2014-164679, for example. Therefore, the predicted temperature acquired from the server 1 can be used as the predicted temperature at the evaluation point.

The calculation unit 12 calculates an integrated temperature by integrating the expected temperatures in the specific time period acquired by the acquisition unit 11 . Specifically, the expected temperatures at 6:00, 7:00, 8:00, 9:00, 10:00, 11:00 and 12:00 on the evaluation target day are integrated.

The evaluation unit 13 evaluates the risk of heat stroke based on the accumulated temperature calculated by the calculation unit 12 . The heat stroke risk evaluation system 100 stores in advance a table showing the relationship between the cumulative temperature and the risk of heat stroke. Evaluate the risk of heat stroke.

FIG. 5 shows an example of a table stored in the heatstroke risk assessment system 100. As shown in FIG. In the table shown in FIG. 5, the integrated temperatures T1 to T4 have a magnitude relationship such that T1 is smaller than T2, T2 is smaller than T3, and T3 is smaller than T4 (T1<T2 <T3<T4).

When the table shown in FIG. 5 is used, the evaluation unit 13 evaluates the heat stroke risk as the lowest "1" when the accumulated temperature is less than T1. Similarly, when the accumulated temperature is T1 or more and less than T2, when it is T2 or more and less than T3, and when it is T3 or more and less than T4, the heat stroke risk is set to "2", "3" and "4" respectively. evaluate. When the cumulative temperature is T4 or higher, the risk of heat stroke is evaluated as "5", which is the highest.

The evaluated heat stroke risk is displayed on the monitor 20 together with appropriate advice according to the heat stroke risk. By checking the monitor 20, a worker at the management center can grasp the degree of risk of heat stroke and the contents of the advice.

Also, the evaluated heat stroke risk and advice are transmitted to the terminal 2 via the computer network. By checking the terminal 2, the person in charge of the construction site can grasp the degree of risk of heat stroke and the contents of the advice. Since the heat stroke risk and advice are determined according to the cumulative value of the expected temperature at the evaluation point, heat stroke countermeasures can be prepared in advance (for example, the day before) for each construction site, and heat stroke countermeasures can be prepared on the evaluation day. can be taken appropriately.

According to the above embodiment, the following operational effects are obtained.

In the heat stroke risk evaluation method and heat stroke risk evaluation system 100, the predicted temperature for the specific time period of the evaluation target date at the evaluation target point is acquired, the predicted temperature for the specific time period is integrated, and the integrated predicted temperature is obtained. Evaluate the risk of heat stroke based on Therefore, the evaluation of the risk of heatstroke changes according to the integrated value of the predicted temperature at the evaluation target point. Therefore, the risk of heat stroke at the evaluation target point can be evaluated in advance and with high accuracy.

In addition, the risk of heat stroke can be evaluated with higher accuracy by evaluating based on the accumulated temperature in the time period from 6:00 to 12:00 as the specific time period.

Note that a technique for generating an expected temperature at an evaluation target point has been established as disclosed in Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2014-164679. Therefore, instead of acquiring the expected temperature at the evaluation point from the server 1, the acquisition unit 11 acquires the weather information distributed by the Meteorological Agency, and uses the acquired weather information to generate the expected temperature at the evaluation point. may be acquired.

<Second embodiment>
Next, a heat stroke risk evaluation method and a heat stroke risk evaluation system 200 according to a second embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS. 6 to 8. FIG. In the following, differences from the first embodiment will be mainly described, and the same or corresponding configurations as those described in the first embodiment will be denoted by the same reference numerals as those in the first embodiment. Description is omitted.

The method for evaluating the risk of heat stroke according to the present embodiment evaluates the risk of heat stroke based on, in addition to the cumulative temperature, information on a tropical night indicating whether or not the night before the evaluation target date at the evaluation target point is a tropical night. is different from the first embodiment. Here, the reason for using hot night information to evaluate the risk of heat stroke will be described with reference to FIG.

Figure 6 shows the number of people who developed heat stroke on a day when the previous night was not a tropical night (the number of heat stroke incidents) per day, and the number of people who developed heat stroke on a day when the previous night was a tropical night. It is a graph showing. As can be seen from FIG. 6, the number of occurrences of heat stroke when the previous night was a tropical night is about six times the number of heat stroke occurrences when the previous night was not a tropical night. In other words, by adding the hot night information as an index for evaluating the risk of heat stroke, it is possible to accurately evaluate the risk of heat stroke. For this reason, in the present embodiment, the risk of heatstroke is evaluated based on the hot night information in addition to the cumulative temperature.

The configuration of the heat stroke risk evaluation system 200 used in the heat stroke risk evaluation method according to this embodiment will be specifically described.

As shown in FIG. 7, the acquiring unit 211 of the heat stroke risk assessment system 200 acquires the expected temperature and also acquires hot night information from the server 1 on the computer network. The server 1 provides information indicating that it is a tropical night when the lowest temperature on the previous night on the evaluation date is 25 degrees Celsius or higher, and when the lowest temperature on the previous night on the evaluation date is less than 25 degrees Celsius provides information indicating that it is not a tropical night.

Note that the acquisition unit 211 may acquire the lowest nighttime temperature from the server 1, determine whether or not the previous night of the evaluation target day is a hot night based on the lowest nighttime temperature, and generate and acquire hot night information. .

The evaluation unit 213 evaluates the risk of heat stroke based on the cumulative temperature and the hot night information. The heat stroke risk evaluation system 200 stores in advance a table showing the relationship between the cumulative temperature, the tropical night, and the risk of heat stroke. assess the risk of

FIG. 8 shows an example of a table stored in the heat stroke risk assessment system 200. As shown in FIG. In the table shown in FIG. 8, T0 is a value smaller than T1. In the table shown in FIG. 8, the heat stroke risk when the previous night was a tropical night is set higher than the heat stroke risk when the previous night was not a tropical night at the same accumulated temperature. Specifically, when the cumulative temperature is T1 or more and less than T2, the heat stroke risk level when the previous night is not a tropical night is set to "2", while the heat stroke risk level when the previous night is a tropical night is set to " 3” is set.

In this way, the heat stroke risk evaluation method and heat stroke risk evaluation system 200 according to the present embodiment evaluate the heat stroke risk based on the cumulative temperature and the hot night information. Therefore, the risk of heatstroke can be evaluated with higher accuracy.

FIG. 9 is a flowchart of a heatstroke risk evaluation method according to a modification of the second embodiment. The modified example is different from the first embodiment in that the specific time period is not determined in advance and the specific time period is determined based on the hot night information.

Steps S 901 to S 903 are acquisition processing performed by the acquisition unit 211 . In step S901, hot night information on the previous night of the evaluation target date at the evaluation target point is acquired. In step S902, a specific time period is determined based on the obtained tropical night information. If the previous night is a tropical night, it is presumed that the temperature at night will affect the onset of heatstroke, so the specific time period is determined to include nighttime. For example, if the previous night is not a hot night, the time zone from 6:00 to 12:00 is determined as the specific time zone, and if the previous night is a hot night, the time zone from 3:00 to 12:00 is set as the specific time zone. decide. In step S903, the predicted temperature for the determined specific time period is obtained.

Since the processing in steps S402 and S403 is substantially the same as the processing in the first embodiment, detailed description is omitted here.

In the modified example, hot night information indicating whether or not the night before the evaluation target date at the evaluation target point is a hot night is acquired, and the specific time zone is determined based on the hot night information. Therefore, the time period used for calculating the accumulated temperature can be changed depending on whether the previous night was a hot night or not. Therefore, the evaluation of the risk of heat stroke can be changed depending on whether the previous night is a tropical night or not, and the risk of heat stroke can be evaluated with higher accuracy.

Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described above, the above embodiments merely show a part of application examples of the present invention, and the technical scope of the present invention is not limited to the specific configurations of the above embodiments. do not have.

In the above embodiment, the case where the risk of heat stroke is evaluated on the day before the evaluation date is described. The risk of heat stroke may be assessed in the morning (eg, 7:00 am) of the subject day. When evaluating the risk of heat stroke at 7:00 on the evaluation target day, the temperature before 7:00 may be the temperature measured instead of the predicted temperature. Also, when using hot night information to evaluate the risk of heatstroke at 7:00 on the day of evaluation, actual information as to whether or not it was a hot night may be used.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 100,200... Heat stroke risk evaluation system 11,211... Acquisition part 12... Calculation part 13,213... Evaluation part

Claims (8)

A heat stroke risk assessment method for evaluating the risk of heat stroke,
an obtaining step of obtaining the expected temperature at the evaluation target location for a specific time period on the evaluation target date;
a calculation step of calculating an accumulated temperature by accumulating predicted temperatures in the specific time period;
and an evaluation step of evaluating the risk of heat stroke based on the accumulated temperature. 2. The heat stroke risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the specific time period is from 6:00 to 12:00. In the acquiring step, acquiring hot night information indicating whether or not the night before the evaluation date at the evaluation target point is a hot night,
3. The heat stroke risk evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein, in said evaluation step, the heat stroke risk is evaluated based on said cumulative temperature and said hot night information. 2. The method according to claim 1, wherein, in said acquiring step, tropical night information indicating whether or not the night before said evaluation date at said evaluation target point is a tropical night is acquired, and said specific time period is determined based on said tropical night information. Heat stroke risk evaluation method. A heat stroke risk assessment system for evaluating the risk of heat stroke,
an acquisition unit that acquires the expected temperature for a specific time period on the evaluation target date at the evaluation target location;
a calculation unit that calculates an integrated temperature by integrating the expected temperature in the specific time period;
A heat stroke risk evaluation system, comprising: an evaluation unit that evaluates the risk of heat stroke based on the accumulated temperature. The specific time zone is a time zone from 6:00 to 12:00,
The heat stroke risk assessment system according to claim 5. The acquisition unit acquires tropical night information indicating whether or not the night before the evaluation target date at the evaluation target point is a tropical night,
The heat stroke risk assessment system according to claim 5 or 6, wherein the evaluation unit evaluates the risk of heat stroke based on the cumulative temperature and the hot night information. 6. The acquiring unit according to claim 5, wherein the acquiring unit acquires tropical night information indicating whether or not the night before the evaluation target date at the evaluation target point is a tropical night, and determines the specific time period based on the tropical night information. Heat stroke risk assessment system.

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