JP2021009489A - Heatstroke risk evaluation method and heatstroke risk evaluation system - Google Patents

Abstract

To evaluate the risk of heatstroke beforehand and accurately.SOLUTION: A heatstroke risk evaluation method comprises: an acquisition step S401 for acquiring predicted temperatures in specific time zones of target dates to be evaluated at a target spot to be evaluated; a calculation step S402 for calculating an accumulated temperature by accumulating the predicted temperatures in the specific time zones; and an evaluation step S 403 for evaluating the risk of heatstroke on the basis of the accumulated temperature.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 4

Description

The present invention relates to methods and systems for assessing the risk of heat stroke.

In order to prevent heat stroke, the risk of heat stroke is evaluated and notified based on the measured temperature and the like.

As an index for assessing the risk of heat stroke, for example, WBGT (Wet-bulb Globe Temperature) calculated using the measured wet-bulb temperature, black-bulb temperature, and dry-bulb temperature is known. .. In the heat stroke risk evaluation using the WBGT, the heat stroke risk is evaluated based on the calculated WBGT.

Further, Patent Document 1 discloses a system for evaluating the risk evaluation of heat stroke using meteorological data. In this system, the temperature information that changes from moment to moment is acquired, and the acquired temperature information is used to evaluate the risk of heat stroke.

Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2001-67403

To prevent heat stroke, it is effective to take measures such as replenishing water and salt, cooling the body using an ice pack, and using a cooling device such as a spot cooler. Advance preparation is required to take such measures against heat stroke, and it is required to evaluate the risk of heat stroke in advance (for example, the day before).

In the above-mentioned method for evaluating the risk of heat stroke using WBGT, it is not possible to evaluate the risk of heat stroke in advance because it is necessary to measure the wet-bulb temperature, the black globe temperature, and the dry-bulb temperature. Further, since the system disclosed in Patent Document 1 requires actually measured temperature information, it is not possible to evaluate the risk of heat stroke in advance.

It is conceivable to evaluate the risk of heat stroke using the predicted value of WBGT published by public institutions, but the points to be predicted by WBGT are limited. Therefore, there is a possibility that the predicted value of WBGT may differ between the point to be predicted by WBGT and the desired point, and the result of pre-evaluating the risk of heat stroke at the desired point may also differ. Can be considered. As a result, it may be delayed to take measures against heat stroke.

An object of the present invention is to evaluate the risk of heat stroke in advance and accurately.

The present invention is a heat stroke risk evaluation method for evaluating the risk of heat stroke, which is an acquisition step of acquiring the expected temperature in a specific time zone of the evaluation target date at the evaluation target point, and a prediction in a specific time zone. It includes a calculation step of integrating the air temperature and calculating the integrated temperature, and an evaluation step of evaluating the risk of heat stroke based on the integrated temperature.

Further, the present invention is a heat stroke risk evaluation system for evaluating the risk of heat stroke, in which an acquisition unit that acquires the expected temperature in a specific time zone of the evaluation target date at the evaluation target point and a specific time zone It is provided with a calculation unit that integrates the expected temperature of the above and calculates the integrated temperature, and an evaluation unit that evaluates the risk of heat stroke based on the integrated temperature.

According to the present invention, the risk of heat stroke can be evaluated in advance and accurately.

It is a graph which shows the relationship between the number of heat stroke cases and the integrated temperature. (A) is a graph showing the relationship between the number of heat stroke cases and the daily average temperature, (b) is a graph showing the relationship between the number of heat stroke cases and the maximum temperature, and (c) is a graph showing the relationship between the number of heat stroke cases and the maximum temperature. It is a graph which shows the relationship between the number of cases and the minimum temperature. It is a block diagram of the heat stroke risk evaluation system which concerns on 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart of the heat stroke risk evaluation method which concerns on 1st Embodiment of this invention. This is an example of a table used in the heat stroke risk evaluation method according to the first embodiment of the present invention. It is a graph which shows the number of heat stroke occurrences on the day when the eve is not a tropical night, and the number of heat strokes on the day when the eve is a tropical night. It is a block diagram of the heat stroke risk evaluation system which concerns on 2nd Embodiment of this invention. This is an example of a table used in the heat stroke risk evaluation method according to the second embodiment of the present invention. It is a flowchart of the heat stroke risk evaluation method which concerns on the modification of 2nd Embodiment of this invention.

Hereinafter, the heat stroke risk evaluation method and the heat stroke risk evaluation system according to the embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

<First Embodiment>
First, the heat stroke risk evaluation method and the heat stroke risk evaluation system 100 according to the first embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS. 1 to 5. Here, the case of evaluating the risk of heat stroke at the construction site will be described, but this embodiment can also be applied to the evaluation of the risk of heat stroke at tourist spots and event venues.

Heat stroke is caused by exercise or work in a hot and humid environment. To prevent heat stroke, it is effective to take measures such as replenishing water and salt, cooling the body using an ice pack, and using a cooling device such as a spot cooler. Advance preparation is required to take such measures against heat stroke, and it is required to evaluate the risk of heat stroke in advance (for example, the day before).

In the method of evaluating the risk of heat stroke using WBGT, it is necessary to measure the wet-bulb temperature, the black globe temperature, and the dry-bulb temperature. Therefore, the risk of heat stroke cannot be evaluated in advance. It is conceivable to predict the WBGT and evaluate the risk of heat stroke, but in order to predict the WBGT, in addition to the predicted dry-bulb temperature (expected temperature), the wet-bulb temperature and the black-bulb temperature are predicted. It is necessary and requires advanced technology.

WBGT forecasts are published by public institutions, but WBGT forecasts are limited. Therefore, it is not possible to accurately evaluate the risk of heat stroke at a desired point in advance. As a result, it may be delayed to take measures against heat stroke.

In the heat stroke risk evaluation method according to the present embodiment, the expected temperature in the specific time zone of the evaluation target day at the evaluation target point is acquired (acquisition step), and the expected temperature in the specific time zone is integrated to obtain the integrated temperature. Calculate (calculation step) and evaluate the risk of heat stroke based on the integrated temperature (evaluation step). Therefore, the evaluation of the risk of heat stroke changes according to the integrated temperature at the evaluation target point. Therefore, the risk of heat stroke at the evaluation target point can be evaluated in advance and accurately.

Here, the reason why the integrated air temperature is used as an index for evaluating the risk of heat stroke will be described with reference to FIGS. 1 and 2, and Table 1.

Figures 1 and 2 show the number of workers who developed heat stroke at a predetermined construction site (the number of heat stroke cases) and the temperature at the construction site on the day when each worker developed heat stroke (announced by the Japan Meteorological Agency). It is a graph showing the relationship with (using the estimated weather distribution). The horizontal axes of the graphs in FIGS. 1 (a), (b), (c), and (d) are from 0:00 (24-hour clock; the same applies hereinafter) to 6:00, from 6:00 to 12:00, and 9:00, respectively. It is an integrated value of the temperature every hour from 15:00 to 15:00 and from 0:00 to 12:00. FIG. 2A is a graph showing the relationship between the number of heat stroke cases and the daily average temperature. FIG. 2B is a graph showing the relationship between the number of heat stroke cases and the maximum temperature, and FIG. 2C is a graph showing the relationship between the number of heat stroke cases and the minimum temperature. In the graphs shown in FIGS. 1 and 2, the plot is the number of heat stroke occurrences at each temperature, and the curve is an approximate curve obtained from the plot.

Table 1 summarizes the equations and correlation coefficients of the approximate curves of the graphs shown in FIGS. 1 and 2. The correlation coefficient is a value of 0 (zero) or more and 1 or less, and the closer it is to "1", the stronger the correlation.

As can be seen from FIGS. 1 and 2, and Table 1, the correlation coefficient between the cumulative temperature and the number of heat stroke cases is the correlation coefficient between the maximum temperature and the number of heat stroke cases, and the minimum temperature and heat stroke. It is close to "1" when compared with the correlation coefficient with the number of cases of illness. In other words, by using the integrated temperature as an index for evaluating the risk of heat stroke, heat stroke is compared with the case where the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature are used as an index for evaluating the risk of heat stroke. It is possible to accurately evaluate the risk of.

For this reason, in this embodiment, the integrated temperature is used as an index for evaluating the risk of heat stroke.

In addition, the correlation coefficient between the cumulative temperature from 6:00 to 12:00 and the number of heat stroke cases (Fig. 1 (b)), and between the cumulative temperature from 9:00 to 15:00 and the number of heat stroke cases. The correlation coefficient (FIG. 1 (c)) is closer to "1" than the correlation coefficient between the daily mean temperature and the number of heat stroke cases (FIG. 2 (a)). That is, by using the integrated temperature in a certain time zone as an index for evaluating the risk of heat stroke, it is possible to evaluate the risk of heat stroke with higher accuracy.

The specific time zone is from 9:00 to 12:00, which is common to the time zone from 6:00 to 12:00 (Fig. 1 (b)) and the time zone from 9:00 to 15:00 (Fig. 1 (c)). At least the time zone including is preferable.

The correlation coefficient between the cumulative temperature and the number of heat stroke cases during the time period from 6:00 to 12 is compared with the correlation coefficient between the cumulative temperature and the number of heat stroke cases during other time zones. Close to "1". Therefore, as the specific time zone, the time zone from 6:00 to 12 is more preferable.

The heat stroke risk evaluation system 100 according to the present embodiment is used in the heat stroke risk evaluation method. Hereinafter, the configuration of the heat stroke risk assessment system 100 will be specifically described.

FIG. 3 is a block diagram of the heat stroke risk assessment system 100. The heat stroke risk assessment system 100 includes a microcomputer 10. The microcomputer 10 has a CPU (Central Processing Unit) that executes a control program or the like, a ROM (Read-Only Memory) that stores a control program or the like executed by the CPU, and a RAM (Random) that stores the calculation results of the CPU. It is equipped with an Access Memory) and performs arithmetic processing. The number of microcomputers 10 may be one or a plurality.

The microcomputer 10 is installed in, for example, a management center that manages a plurality of construction sites. The microcomputer 10 is connected to a predetermined server 1 via a computer-network, and is connected to a terminal 2 such as a personal computer installed in an office at a construction site or a smart device taken out to the site via the computer-network. It is connected.

The microcomputer 10 includes an acquisition unit 11 that acquires the expected temperature in the specific time zone of the evaluation target date at the evaluation target point, a calculation unit 12 that integrates the expected temperature in the specific time zone, and calculates the integrated temperature. It is equipped with an evaluation unit 13 that evaluates the risk of heat stroke based on the temperature. The acquisition unit 11, the calculation unit 12, and the evaluation unit 13 use the functions of the microcomputer 10 as virtual units.

FIG. 4 is a flowchart of the heat stroke risk evaluation method according to the present embodiment. Step S401 is an acquisition process performed by the acquisition unit 11, step S402 is a calculation process performed by the calculation unit 12, and step S403 is an evaluation process performed by the evaluation unit 13.

The acquisition unit 11 acquires the expected temperature in the specific time zone of the evaluation target date at the evaluation target point from the server 1. The evaluation target point and the evaluation target date are input to the heat stroke risk evaluation system 100 in advance by the worker. The evaluation target point may be determined by, for example, latitude and longitude, or may be determined by an address. The evaluation target date is set, for example, the day following the day on which the risk of heat stroke is evaluated.

The specific time zone is input to the heat stroke risk assessment system 100 in advance by the operator. Here, the specific time zone is set to the time zone from 6:00 to 12:00, and the acquisition unit 11 acquires the expected temperature at 6:00, 7:00, 8:00, 9:00, 10:00, 11:00, and 12:00. ..

The server 1 provides hourly expected temperatures at a number of points, for example, based on meteorological information distributed by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The expected temperature delivered by the Japan Meteorological Agency is information at the observatory provided at intervals of about 21 km, and may differ significantly from the expected temperature at the evaluation target point. The server 1 generates and provides the expected temperature at points narrower than 21 km by using the meteorological information distributed by the Japan Meteorological Agency, for example, by the method disclosed in Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2014-164679. Therefore, the predicted temperature acquired from the server 1 can be used as the predicted temperature at the evaluation target point.

The calculation unit 12 calculates the integrated temperature by integrating the expected temperature in the specific time zone acquired by the acquisition unit 11. Specifically, the expected temperatures at 6:00, 7:00, 8:00, 9:00, 10:00, 11:00 and 12:00 on the evaluation target day are integrated.

The evaluation unit 13 evaluates the risk of heat stroke based on the integrated temperature calculated by the calculation unit 12. The heat stroke risk evaluation system 100 stores in advance a table showing the relationship between the integrated temperature and the risk of heat stroke, and the evaluation unit 13 uses the integrated temperature and the table calculated by the calculation unit 12. Evaluate the risk of heat stroke.

FIG. 5 shows an example of a table stored in the heat stroke risk assessment system 100. In the table shown in FIG. 5, the magnitude relation of the integrated temperatures T1 to T4 is such that T1 is a value smaller than T2, T2 is a value smaller than T3, and T3 is a value smaller than T4 (T1 <T2). <T3 <T4).

When the table shown in FIG. 5 is used, the evaluation unit 13 evaluates the heat stroke risk as the lowest "1" when the integrated temperature is less than T1. Similarly, when the integrated temperature is T1 or more and less than T2, T2 or more and less than T3, and T3 or more and less than T4, the heat stroke risk is set to "2", "3" and "4", respectively. evaluate. When the cumulative temperature is T4 or higher, it is evaluated as "5", which has the highest risk of heat stroke.

The evaluated heat stroke risk is displayed on the monitor 20 together with appropriate advice according to the heat stroke risk. By checking the monitor 20, the worker of the management center can grasp the risk of heat stroke and the content of the advice.

In addition, the evaluated heat stroke risk and advice are transmitted to the terminal 2 via the computer-network. By checking the terminal 2, the person in charge of the construction site can grasp the risk of heat stroke and the content of the advice. Since the heat stroke risk and advice are determined according to the integrated value of the expected temperature at the evaluation target point, heat stroke countermeasures can be prepared in advance (for example, the day before) for each construction site, and heat stroke countermeasures can be prepared on the evaluation target date. Can be taken appropriately.

According to the above embodiment, the following effects are exhibited.

In the heat stroke risk evaluation method and the heat stroke risk evaluation system 100, the expected temperature in the specific time zone of the evaluation target day at the evaluation target point is acquired, the expected temperature in the specific time zone is integrated, and the integrated expected temperature is integrated. Evaluate the risk of heat stroke based on. Therefore, the evaluation of the risk of heat stroke changes according to the integrated value of the expected temperature at the evaluation target point. Therefore, the risk of heat stroke at the evaluation target point can be evaluated in advance and accurately.

In addition, the risk of heat stroke can be evaluated with higher accuracy by evaluating based on the integrated temperature in the time zone from 6:00 to 12:00 as a specific time zone.

The technique for generating the expected temperature at the evaluation target point has been established as disclosed in Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2014-164679. Therefore, instead of acquiring the expected temperature at the evaluation target point from the server 1, the acquisition unit 11 acquires the weather information distributed by the Japan Meteorological Agency and generates the expected temperature at the evaluation target point using the acquired weather information. You may get it.

<Second Embodiment>
Next, the heat stroke risk evaluation method and the heat stroke risk evaluation system 200 according to the second embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIGS. 6 to 8. In the following, the differences from the first embodiment will be mainly described, and the same or equivalent configurations as those described in the first embodiment are designated by the same reference numerals as those in the first embodiment in the drawings. The explanation is omitted.

The heat stroke risk evaluation method according to the present embodiment evaluates the risk of heat stroke based on the accumulated temperature and tropical night information indicating whether or not the eve of the evaluation target day at the evaluation target point is a tropical night. Is different from the first embodiment. Here, the reason for using tropical night information to evaluate the risk of heat stroke will be described with reference to FIG.

FIG. 6 shows the number of people who developed heat stroke on a day when the night before was not a tropical night (the number of heat stroke cases) and the number of people who developed heat stroke on a day when the night before was a tropical night. It is a graph which shows. As can be seen from FIG. 6, the number of heat stroke cases when the eve is a tropical night is about 6 times the number of heat stroke cases when the eve is not a tropical night. In other words, by adding tropical night information as an index for evaluating the risk of heat stroke, it is possible to accurately evaluate the risk of heat stroke. For this reason, in this embodiment, the risk of heat stroke is evaluated based on tropical night information in addition to the integrated temperature.

The configuration of the heat stroke risk evaluation system 200 used in the heat stroke risk evaluation method according to the present embodiment will be specifically described.

As shown in FIG. 7, the acquisition unit 211 of the heat stroke risk assessment system 200 acquires the expected temperature and also acquires tropical night information from the server 1 on the computer-network. Server 1 provides information indicating that it is a tropical night when the minimum temperature on the eve of the evaluation target day is 25 degrees Celsius or higher, and when the minimum temperature on the eve of the evaluation target day is less than 25 degrees Celsius. Provides information that it is not a tropical night.

The acquisition unit 211 may acquire the minimum temperature at night from the server 1, determine whether or not the eve of the evaluation target day is a tropical night based on the minimum temperature at night, and generate and acquire tropical night information. ..

The evaluation unit 213 evaluates the risk of heat stroke based on the integrated temperature and tropical night information. The heat stroke risk evaluation system 200 stores in advance a table showing the relationship between the integrated temperature, tropical nights, and the risk of heat stroke, and the evaluation unit 213 uses the integrated temperature, tropical night information, and the table to store heat stroke. Evaluate the risk of.

FIG. 8 shows an example of a table stored in the heat stroke risk assessment system 200. In the table shown in FIG. 8, T0 is a value smaller than T1. In the table shown in FIG. 8, the heat stroke risk when the eve is a tropical night is set higher at the same integrated temperature as compared with the heat stroke risk when the eve is not a tropical night. Specifically, when the accumulated temperature is T1 or more and less than T2, the heat stroke risk when the eve is not a tropical night is set to "2", while the heat stroke risk when the eve is a tropical night is "2". It is set to "3".

As described above, the heat stroke risk evaluation method and the heat stroke risk evaluation system 200 according to the present embodiment evaluate the risk of heat stroke based on the integrated temperature and the tropical night information. Therefore, the risk of heat stroke can be evaluated with higher accuracy.

FIG. 9 is a flowchart of a heat stroke risk evaluation method according to a modified example of the second embodiment. The modified example is different from the first embodiment in that the specific time zone is not determined in advance and the specific time zone is determined based on the tropical night information.

Steps S901 to S903 are acquisition processes performed by the acquisition unit 211. In step S901, the tropical night information on the eve of the evaluation target day at the evaluation target point is acquired. In step S902, a specific time zone is determined based on the acquired tropical night information. If the eve is a tropical night, the temperature at night is presumed to affect the onset of heat stroke, so the specific time zone is determined to include the night. For example, if the eve is not a tropical night, the time zone from 6:00 to 12:00 is determined as a specific time zone, and if the eve is a tropical night, the time zone from 3:00 to 12:00 is set as a specific time zone. decide. In step S903, the expected temperature in the determined specific time zone is acquired.

Since the processes in steps S402 and S403 are substantially the same as the processes in the first embodiment, detailed description thereof will be omitted here.

In the modified example, tropical night information indicating whether or not the eve of the evaluation target day at the evaluation target point is a tropical night is acquired, and a specific time zone is determined based on the tropical night information. Therefore, the time zone used for calculating the integrated temperature can be changed depending on whether the previous night is a tropical night or not. Therefore, the evaluation of the risk of heat stroke can be changed depending on whether the eve is a tropical night or not, and the risk of heat stroke can be evaluated with higher accuracy.

Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described above, the above embodiments are only a part of the application examples of the present invention, and the technical scope of the present invention is limited to the specific configurations of the above embodiments. Absent.

In the above embodiment, the case where the risk of heat stroke is evaluated on the day before the evaluation target date is described, but the risk of heat stroke may be evaluated 2 days or more before the evaluation target date, and the evaluation may be performed. The risk of heat stroke may be evaluated in the morning of the target day (for example, 7 o'clock). When evaluating the risk of heat stroke at 7 o'clock on the evaluation target day, the measured temperature may be used instead of the expected temperature for the temperature before 7 o'clock. In addition, when using tropical night information when evaluating the risk of heat stroke at 7 o'clock on the evaluation target day, the actual information on whether or not it was a tropical night may be used.

100,200 ... Heat stroke risk evaluation system 11,211 ... Acquisition unit 12 ... Calculation unit 13,213 ... Evaluation unit

Claims (8)

It is a heat stroke risk evaluation method for evaluating the risk of heat stroke.
The acquisition step to acquire the expected temperature at the specific time zone of the evaluation target date at the evaluation target point, and
A calculation step of integrating the expected temperature in the specific time zone to calculate the integrated temperature, and
A heat stroke risk evaluation method comprising an evaluation step for evaluating the risk of heat stroke based on the integrated air temperature. The heat stroke risk evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein the specific time zone is a time zone from 6:00 to 12:00. In the acquisition step, tropical night information indicating whether or not the eve of the evaluation target day at the evaluation target point is a tropical night is acquired.
The heat stroke risk evaluation method according to claim 1 or 2, wherein in the evaluation step, the risk of heat stroke is evaluated based on the integrated temperature and the tropical night information. The method according to claim 1, wherein in the acquisition step, tropical night information indicating whether or not the eve of the evaluation target day at the evaluation target point is a tropical night is acquired, and the specific time zone is determined based on the tropical night information. Heat stroke risk assessment method. It is a heat stroke risk evaluation system that evaluates the risk of heat stroke.
An acquisition unit that acquires the expected temperature at a specific time zone on the evaluation target date at the evaluation target point,
A calculation unit that calculates the integrated temperature by integrating the expected temperature in the specific time zone,
A heat stroke risk evaluation system including an evaluation unit for evaluating the risk of heat stroke based on the integrated temperature. The specific time zone is a time zone from 6:00 to 12:00.
The heat stroke risk assessment system according to claim 5. The acquisition unit acquires tropical night information indicating whether or not the eve of the evaluation target day at the evaluation target point is a tropical night.
The heat stroke risk evaluation system according to claim 5 or 6, wherein the evaluation unit evaluates the risk of heat stroke based on the integrated temperature and the tropical night information. The acquisition unit acquires tropical night information indicating whether or not the eve of the evaluation target day at the evaluation target point is a tropical night, and determines the specific time zone based on the tropical night information according to claim 5. Heat stroke risk assessment system.

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