JP7173896B2 - Driving assistance device, driving assistance method, and driving assistance program - Google Patents

Description

TECHNICAL FIELD The present disclosure relates to operation support for a power plant, and more particularly, to operation support when responding to load suppression of a power plant for maintaining a balance between supply and demand of electric power.

In an electric power system, when the supply and demand balance between the amount of power used (power demand) and the amount of power generated is disrupted, the power frequency is disturbed. If the power frequency is disturbed, it may adversely affect power generation facilities and lead to large-scale blackouts, so it is important to maintain a balance between supply and demand in power systems. In recent years, with the expansion of renewable energy, the amount of power generated has become excessive, for example, when the amount of power generated by solar power exceeds the planned value on sunny days, the amount of power generated by the entire power system exceeds the power demand. As a result, there are occasional events in which the supply and demand balance described above is greatly disrupted.

In this way, when the amount of power generated in the power system exceeds the power demand, the amount of power generated is decreased or the amount of power used is increased in accordance with the order predetermined by the priority power supply rules in order to adjust the supply and demand balance. . Specifically, according to the priority power supply rules, the amount of power generated by thermal power generation such as LNG, coal, and oil will be reduced first, and the power demand will be increased by pumping water for pumped-storage power generation. After that, power will be transferred to other areas using inter-regional interconnection lines, and the output of biomass power generation will be controlled. If it is still not possible, the output of solar power generation and wind power generation will be controlled. is adjusted. In addition, when power companies such as general electric power companies reduce the amount of power generation by sending output suppression instructions to power generation companies that own power plants when the amount of power generation exceeds the power demand, this output suppression instruction Arrangements have been made to send by a predetermined deadline (for example, by 17:00 on the previous day).

The above is an adjustment in the case of excessive power generation, but demand response is known to balance supply and demand by suppressing power demand during periods when power demand peaks, and it has various contents. has been proposed (see Patent Documents 1 and 2, for example).

Japanese Patent No. 6005034 Japanese Patent No. 6277129

As described above, when the supply and demand balance is lost due to excessive power generation in the power system, the power company issues an output suppression instruction to the power plant such as a thermal power plant according to the priority power supply rule. The amount of power generation that the power plant can respond to is agreed in advance between the power company and the power plant. It becomes possible. However, if the load is reduced in response to the output suppression instruction, the operation rate and power generation efficiency of the power plant will decrease, which will affect the prospect of recovering the investment in the power plant.

In view of the above circumstances, it is an object of at least one embodiment of the present invention to provide an operation support device that proposes a response on the power plant side to an output curtailment instruction that is issued to maintain the supply and demand balance of electric power.

(1) A driving support device according to at least one embodiment of the present invention,
An operation support device configured to propose a response on the power plant side to an output suppression instruction issued to maintain the supply and demand balance of electric power in an electric power system,
a receiver configured to receive a limit value of power that can be transmitted from the power plant into the power system;
When adopting one or more first response plans for transmitting surplus power generated when the power plant is operated at a load higher than the load corresponding to the limit value to other power transmission destinations outside the power system an alternative profit estimation unit configured to estimate an alternative profit that is profit;
and an output information generating unit configured to generate output information based on the result of the alternative profit trial calculation.

When the power supply and demand balance in the power system collapses due to excessive power generation, the command side such as the power company instructs the power plant to suppress the output (electricity) to the power system. served. However, if the load of the power plant is reduced from the planned value in accordance with this output curtailment instruction, the operation rate and power generation efficiency of the power plant will decrease, so profits will not be obtained as initially planned, and losses corresponding to the amount of load reduction will occur. Profit is made.

For this reason, the present inventors have taken measures to actually reduce the load of the power plant according to the output suppression instruction, as well as the surplus power that cannot be transmitted to the power system that is generated when the load of the power plant is maintained as planned as much as possible. We thought that it would be possible to take other measures such as obtaining profits (alternative profits) by transmitting power to other power transmission destinations. According to this measure, there is a possibility that a higher profit can be obtained than when the output is suppressed. In addition, if there are multiple candidates for other power transmission destinations, if power is transmitted to other power transmission destinations that can maximize the alternative profit, the loss will be lost against the lost profit that would have been obtained if the output curtailment instruction had not been issued. I thought it would be possible to minimize the amount (maximize profit).

According to the above configuration (1), when the power that can be transmitted from the power plant to the power system becomes smaller than the planned value due to the output suppression instruction, the load of the power plant is maintained at the planned value. A trial calculation is made of the profit expected by transmitting the surplus power generated when the power plant is operated at a load higher than the value to other power transmission destinations. As a result, it is possible to appropriately select another power transmission destination from which a desired profit can be expected by transmitting the surplus power. In addition, it is possible to compensate for the loss of profits caused by responding to output curtailment instructions with the profits obtained by transmitting surplus power to other transmission destinations selected based on the results of trial calculations. It is possible to minimize the loss of the business using the power plant, which is expected to decrease due to

(2) In some embodiments, in the configuration of (1) above,
The one or more first response plans include using the surplus power to increase self-consumption of power within the facility where the power plant is installed.
According to the above configuration (2), when the power plant is generating power for power transmission to its own equipment such as the power system and the production plant, surplus power is used to increase the productivity of the production plant. By doing so, we calculate the alternative profit when the profit can be increased. With this, it is possible to make a trial calculation of the alternative benefit that can be expected when the self-consumption of power is increased using the surplus power.

(3) In some embodiments, in the configurations of (1) to (2) above,
the other power transmission destination includes a storage battery;
The one or more first response plans include transmitting the surplus power to the storage battery.
According to the above configuration (3), the surplus power is transmitted to the storage battery to calculate the alternative profit from conversion to other energy such as power for EV vehicles, power sales, and the like. By this, it is possible to make a trial calculation of the alternative profit that can be expected by storing the surplus power in the storage battery.

(4) In some embodiments, in the configurations of (1) to (3) above,
The one or more first response plans include transmitting the surplus power to another plant outside the facility where the power plant is installed.
According to the above configuration (4), the surplus power is transmitted to another plant to calculate the alternative profit from the sale of power. By this, it is possible to make a trial calculation of the alternative profit that can be expected by transmitting the surplus power to other plants.

(5) In some embodiments, in the configurations of (1) to (4) above,
The output information generation unit is
A plan determination unit configured to determine whether or not to adopt any one of the one or more first response plans based on the trial calculation result of the alternative profit.
According to the above configuration (5), it is automatically determined whether or not to adopt one of the first response plans or the plurality of first response plans based on the result of the trial calculation of the alternative profit. For example, an appropriate surplus power transmission destination can be determined and selected, such as automatically determining a power transmission destination from which the highest alternative profit can be obtained from a plurality of surplus power transmission destination options.

(6) In some embodiments, in the configurations of (1) to (5) above,
a restraint-time profit trial calculation unit configured to estimate a restraint-time profit when adopting a second response plan that restrains the load of the power plant according to the limit value,
The output information generating unit generates output information based on the trial calculation result of the alternative profit and the trial calculation result of the profit during suppression.

According to the above configuration (6), when compensation or the like is obtained when the load of the power plant is suppressed according to the output suppression instruction, the profit (suppression profit) when this load suppression is executed is calculated. As a result, based on the trial calculation results of both the alternative profit and the profit during suppression described above, it is advantageous to either reduce the load of the power plant according to the output suppression instruction or transmit the surplus power to another power transmission destination. The facilitation of judgment such as whether or not can be achieved.

(7) In some embodiments, in the configuration of (6) above,
The power plant has a plurality of types of power sources,
The output information generation unit is configured to determine the power source to suppress the load based on the power generation cost of each of the plurality of types of power sources when the second response plan is adopted. It has a judgment part.

According to the configuration of (7) above, when the power plant includes a plurality of power sources such as a coal-fired boiler and a gas engine, the output of the power plant as a whole is based on the power generation cost of each of the plurality of power sources. select a suitable power supply to keep the As a result, it is possible to minimize the amount of loss when the load is reduced in accordance with the output suppression instruction.

(8) In some embodiments, in the configurations of (1) to (7) above,
It further comprises an instruction prediction unit that predicts the timing at which the output suppression instruction is issued, based on each prediction result of the power demand and the amount of power generation of the renewable energy.

According to the above configuration (8), reception of the output suppression instruction is predicted based on the demand prediction and the power generation amount prediction of the renewable energy. The output suppression instruction may be issued until just before the start of the output suppression period, such as by 17:00 on the previous day. In such a case, the power plant will be forced to make an urgent decision, but with the above prediction, it will be possible to buy time from actually receiving the output curtailment instruction to making a decision, so that the decision can be made. You can try to do it more carefully. In addition, if the amount of compensation, etc., can be obtained by suppressing the output below the limit value, compensation, etc., will be increased by that amount if the necessary time for the adjustment can be secured. Thus, it is possible to minimize the amount of loss when the load is reduced according to the output suppression instruction.

(9) A driving support method according to at least one embodiment of the present invention,
An operation support method configured to propose a response on the power plant side to an output suppression instruction issued to maintain a balance between supply and demand of electric power in an electric power system,
a receiving step of receiving a limit value of power that can be transmitted from the power plant into the power system;
When adopting one or more first response plans for transmitting surplus power generated when the power plant is operated at a load higher than the load corresponding to the limit value to other power transmission destinations outside the power system an alternative profit trial calculation step for calculating an alternative profit that is profit;
and an output information generating step of generating output information based on the trial calculation result of the alternative profit.
According to the configuration of (9) above, the same effect as that of (1) above is achieved.

(10) A driving assistance program according to at least one embodiment of the present invention,
An operation support program configured to propose a response on the power plant side to an output suppression instruction issued to maintain a balance of supply and demand of electric power in a power system,
to the computer,
a receiver configured to receive a limit value of power that can be transmitted from the power plant into the power system;
When adopting one or more first response plans for transmitting surplus power generated when the power plant is operated at a load higher than the load corresponding to the limit value to other power transmission destinations outside the power system an alternative profit estimation unit configured to estimate an alternative profit that is profit;
An output information generation unit configured to generate output information based on the trial calculation result of the alternative profit, and a driving support program for realizing the output information generation unit.
According to the configuration of (10) above, the same effect as that of (1) above is achieved.

According to at least one embodiment of the present invention, there is provided an operation support device that proposes a response on the power plant side to an output suppression instruction that is issued in order to maintain the supply and demand balance of electric power.

It is a figure showing roughly composition of a power system concerning one embodiment of the present invention. 1 is a block diagram showing functions of a driving assistance device according to an embodiment of the present invention; FIG. FIG. 4 is a flow diagram showing a time series from an output suppression instruction to power plant control according to one embodiment of the present invention. It is a figure which shows the input-output of the driving assistance device which concerns on one Embodiment of this invention. FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a flow of predicting a limit value according to one embodiment of the present invention; It is a figure which shows the driving assistance method which concerns on one Embodiment of this invention.

Several embodiments of the present invention will now be described with reference to the accompanying drawings. However, the dimensions, materials, shapes, relative arrangements, etc. of the components described as embodiments or shown in the drawings are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, and are merely illustrative examples. do not have.
For example, expressions denoting relative or absolute arrangements such as "in a direction", "along a direction", "parallel", "perpendicular", "center", "concentric" or "coaxial" are strictly not only represents such an arrangement, but also represents a state of relative displacement with a tolerance or an angle or distance to the extent that the same function can be obtained.
For example, expressions such as "identical", "equal", and "homogeneous", which express that things are in the same state, not only express the state of being strictly equal, but also have tolerances or differences to the extent that the same function can be obtained. It shall also represent the existing state.
For example, expressions that express shapes such as squares and cylinders do not only represent shapes such as squares and cylinders in a geometrically strict sense, but also include irregularities and chamfers to the extent that the same effect can be obtained. The shape including the part etc. shall also be represented.
On the other hand, the expressions "comprising", "comprising", "having", "including", or "having" one component are not exclusive expressions excluding the presence of other components.

FIG. 1 is a diagram schematically showing the configuration of a power system 7 according to one embodiment of the present invention. As shown in FIG. 1, in the electric power system 7, power generated by a power plant 71 is output to power transmission equipment (power transmission network 72), transmitted to a substation 73 via the power transmission equipment, and then transmitted to the substation 73. The voltage-regulated power is supplied to consumers 75 who use the power flowing in the power system 7 such as homes and factories through a distribution network 74 . The power plant 71 is, for example, a thermal power plant, a wind power plant, a solar power plant, a hydroelectric power plant, a nuclear power plant, or the like. In general, thermal power plants generate electricity by burning (single-combustion or mixed-combustion) fuels such as fossil fuels such as coal, gas, and oil, and biomass fuels. It is easy to adjust the output (power generation amount) by adjustment. On the other hand, wind farms and photovoltaic power plants use solar energy and wind power to generate electricity, so the amount of electricity they generate depends on the weather at the time. In addition, hydro and nuclear power plants are used as base load power sources. Note that one or more (plural) power plants 71, substations 73, and consumers 75 may each exist, and normally there are a plurality of them, but they are omitted in FIG. 1 for the sake of simplification.

In such an electric power system 7, it is important to maintain the supply and demand balance of electricity (electric power). In other words, it is important to maintain a balance between the amount of power output from all power plants 71 to the power transmission network 72 and the amount of power supplied to and consumed by all consumers 75 . However, with the expansion of renewable energy such as solar power and wind power, the power supply and demand balance may be greatly disrupted due to excessive power generation in the power system 7 as a whole. For example, when the amount of power (electric power) generated by sunlight during fine weather exceeds the planned value Ep, if the amount of power generated by other power plants remains at the planned value Ep, power generation in the entire power system 7 amount exceeds the power demand.

In such a case, for example, according to a predetermined rule (priority power supply rule) or the like, it is necessary to take measures to keep the balance between supply and demand, such as suppressing the amount of power generated by various power plants 71 . Specifically, as shown in FIG. 1, an output suppression instruction R is issued from the power company 9 or other output suppression instruction side to the target power plant 71, and the power plant 71 follows the output suppression instruction R, The power to be output (transmitted) to the power system 7 (power transmission network 72) is adjusted, such as by reducing the load.

However, if the load of the power plant 71 is reduced from the planned value Ep or the like in accordance with the output suppression instruction R, the operation rate and power generation efficiency of the power plant 71 will decrease. Loss of profit will occur accordingly. For this reason, the present inventors have taken measures to actually reduce the load of the power generation plant 71 according to the output suppression instruction R, and have also taken measures to reduce the surplus power that cannot be transmitted to the power system 7 when the load of the power generation plant 71 is maintained as planned as much as possible. It was considered possible to obtain a profit (alternative profit) by transmitting (Ep-L) to another power transmission destination 8 other than the electric power system. According to this measure, there is a possibility that a higher profit can be obtained than when the output is curtailed. Further, when there are a plurality of candidates for the other power transmission destination 8, if power is transmitted to any of those power transmission destinations, power is transmitted to another power transmission destination that can maximize the alternative profit, an output suppression instruction is issued. We thought that it would be possible to minimize the amount of loss (maximize profit) against the lost profit that would have been possible without it.

A driving support device 1 for realizing the above will be described below with reference to FIGS. 2 to 5. FIG. FIG. 2 is a block diagram showing functions of the driving assistance device 1 according to one embodiment of the present invention.
The operation support device 1 is a device configured to propose a response on the power generation plant 71 side to an output suppression instruction R issued to maintain the supply and demand balance of power in the power system 7 . As shown in FIG. 2 , the driving support device 1 includes a receiver 2 , an alternative profit trial calculator 3 , and an output information generator 5 . Each of these functional units will be described.

In the following explanation, the power plant 71 is assumed to be a plant that performs thermal power generation according to a predetermined power generation plan. In general, such a power plant 71 procures fuel and uses fuel according to a power generation plan, and operates with high efficiency, such as 100%.
The driving support device 1 is configured by, for example, a computer, and includes a CPU (processor) (not shown), memories such as ROM and RAM, and a storage device m such as an external storage device. Then, the CPU operates (calculates data, etc.) according to the instructions of the program (driving assistance program) loaded in the main storage device, thereby realizing each functional unit provided in the driving assistance device 1, which will be described later.

The receiving unit 2 is a functional unit configured to receive a limit value L of power that can be transmitted from the power plant 71 to the inside of the power system 7 . This limit value L is information for determining the upper limit of the output (power) that the power plant 71 can transmit to the power transmission network 72 . The limit value L may be an upper limit of the power or amount of power that can be output from the power plant 71 to the transmission network 72, such as αMW (megawatts, etc.) or αMWh (megawatts, etc.). Alternatively, for example, it may be a reduction ratio of the output or load with respect to the planned value Ep, such as α% suppression, or an output ratio or load ratio based on 100%, such as output α% or load α%. good. In the following description, the limit value L is assumed to be in the same unit as the load of the power plant 71 .

Also, the above limit value L may be included in the above-described output suppression instruction R, for example. In this case, the receiver 2 receives the limit value L by receiving the output suppression instruction R. FIG. However, the limit value L does not have to be included in the output suppression instruction R. For example, the receiving unit 2 receives (obtains) the limit value L by reading the limit value L (fixed value, etc.) pre-stored in the storage device m or the like upon receipt of the output suppression instruction R. Also good. Moreover, the receiving unit 2 may receive the limit value L via a communication network, or may receive the limit value L input by an operator. Note that the output suppression instruction R may include a future period (hereinafter referred to as an output suppression period) in which the limit value L is applied. , the power output to the transmission network 72 must be adjusted to the limit value L or a value less than or equal to the limit value L.

The alternative profit estimation unit 3 transmits the surplus power E generated when the power plant 71 is operated with a load higher than the load corresponding to the limit value L to another power transmission destination 8 outside the power system 7 (1). This is a functional unit configured to trial-calculate (calculate) an alternative profit, which is a profit when the above plan (hereinafter referred to as the first corresponding plan Pa) is adopted. Each of the above-mentioned first response plans Pa transmits surplus power E that cannot be transmitted to the power system 7, which is generated when the output of the power plant 71 during the above-described output suppression period is not reduced from the planned value Ep to the limit value L or less. It defines candidates for other power transmission destinations 8 .

Other power transmission destinations 8 are facilities connected by power transmission facilities 85 such as power lines that do not belong to the power system 7, for example. For example, it may be a private facility 81, a storage battery 82, another plant 83, etc., which are facilities capable of transmitting power without going through the power system 7 as described later. Further, the substitution profit is the amount obtained by subtracting the cost (expense) required to generate the surplus power E from the revenue (power sales revenue) obtained by transmitting the surplus power E to another power transmission destination 8, for example. It can be.

For example, if the limit value L is smaller than the planned value Ep of the output from the power plant 71 to the power transmission network 72 during the output suppression period described above, power is generated up to a value larger than the limit value L, such as as planned. If this is the case, power can only be output up to the limit value L from the power generation plant 71 to the power transmission network 72, so a surplus power E will be generated. The alternative profit trial calculation unit 3 converts at least part of the surplus electric power E generated by not suppressing (reducing the load of the power plant 71; the same shall apply hereinafter) according to the limit value L to other power according to the first response plan Pa. The amount of alternative profit expected to be obtained when power is transmitted to the power transmission destination 8 is calculated. In addition, the detail about each 1st correspondence plan Pa is mentioned later.

The output information generation unit 5 is a functional unit configured to generate the output information I based on the substitute profit trial calculation result Ca calculated by the substitute profit trial calculation unit 3 described above. This output information I contains information useful for determining where to send the surplus power E described above to other power transmission destinations 8 . For example, the output information I may include the amount of profit for each first corresponding plan Pa. Alternatively, the output information I may include the amount of loss relative to the amount of profit that should be obtained during the output suppression period if there is no output suppression instruction R for each first response plan Pa. The output information I includes information (for example, information indicating other power transmission destinations 8) as to which of the plurality of corresponding plans P should be adopted when there are a plurality of first corresponding plans Pa. Also good. The output information I may include one or more of these information.

By obtaining such output information I, it is possible for a user or the like to appropriately determine the other power transmission destination 8 to which the surplus power E is to be transmitted. Become. Furthermore, by controlling the switching device of the power transmission destination (not shown), the surplus power E generated by the power generation plant 71 is transmitted to the other power transmission destination 8 in addition to the power transmission network 72, thereby obtaining a substitute profit. becomes possible. Further, if the substitute profit trial calculation result Ca is transmitted to a switching device (not shown) of the power transmission destination and switched, it is possible to automatically switch so that the surplus power E is transmitted to an appropriate power transmission destination. It becomes possible. In addition, two or more corresponding plans P of the plurality of first corresponding plans Pa may be adopted, and the surplus power E may be distributed to a plurality of other power transmission destinations 8 .

In the embodiment shown in FIG. 2, the receiving unit 2 receives the output suppression instruction R having the above limit value L through communication. The receiving unit 2 is also connected to the alternative profit trial calculation unit 3 and outputs the received alternative profit trial calculation unit 3 . The alternative profit trial calculation unit 3 is connected to the output information generation unit 5, and when the limit value L is input from the reception unit 2, calculates the alternative profit for each first corresponding plan Pa based on this limit value L. Together with this, the result is output to the output information generation unit 5 . The output information generator 5 is connected to a display device 12 such as a display, and outputs output information I to the display device 12 . As a result, the output information I is displayed on the display. Note that the display device 12 may be a device other than a device that displays information on a screen, such as a printer.

According to the above configuration, the load of the power plant 71 is maintained at the planned value Ep when the power that can be transmitted from the power plant 71 to the power system 7 becomes smaller than the planned value Ep due to the output suppression instruction R. For example, the profit expected by transmitting the surplus power E generated when the power generation plant 71 is operated at a load higher than the limit value L to the other power transmission destination 8 is calculated. As a result, it is possible to appropriately select other power transmission destinations 8 from which a profit can be expected by transmitting the surplus power E. In addition, the profits obtained by transmitting the surplus power E to the other power transmission destination 8 selected based on the alternative profit trial calculation result Ca can be used to compensate for the profits lost due to the response to the output suppression instruction R. , the loss of the business using the power plant 71, which is expected to decrease by responding to the output suppression instruction R, can be minimized.

Next, several embodiments relating to the above-described first response plan Pa will be described with reference to FIGS. 2 to 4. FIG. FIG. 4 is a diagram showing inputs and outputs of the driving assistance device 1 according to one embodiment of the present invention.

In some embodiments, the one or more first response plans Pa described above include a response plan P that uses the surplus power E to increase the power consumption (self-consumption power) in the facility where the power generation plant 71 is installed. may include. That is, when this first response plan Pa is adopted, the transmission destination 8 of the surplus electric power E is the above-described facility (private facility 81).

For example, in the case where the power plant 71 originally supplies power to the power system 7 and to a production plant (private equipment 81) connected without the power system 7, surplus power E is transmitted to such a production plant. In this case, if the surplus electric power E can increase the production utilization rate of the production plant, the surplus electric power E can cover the increase in self-consumption power, and by selling more products produced at the production plant, profit can be obtained. Therefore, the private power consumption that can be increased is obtained, and the private facility 81 is instructed to cope with the increase, and the surplus power E is transmitted to the private facility 81 during the output suppression period.

The alternative profit in the case of adopting the first corresponding plan Pa with this private facility 81 as another power transmission destination 8 is, for example, the profit for the increased production (increased production profit) obtained by increasing production, and the power generation cost of the surplus power E (Fig. It may be calculated by subtracting a) of 4. This production increase profit is the profit after the production increase minus the profit before the production increase. You can ask. The increased amount of production may be calculated in consideration of the production capacity of the factory, the production cost, and the expected sales volume (d in FIG. 4).

Also, the power generation cost (a in FIG. 4) is obtained by multiplying the cost required to generate a unit power amount such as 1 MW (megawatt) or 1 kW (kilowatt) by the power amount used as an increase in self-consumption power. Therefore, it can be calculated. This power generation cost may be calculated in consideration of the fuel price (j in FIG. 4).

According to the above configuration, when the power plant 71 is generating power for power transmission to the electric power system 7 and the private equipment 81 such as the production plant, the surplus power E is used to increase the productivity of the production plant. By doing so, the alternative profit is calculated when the profit can be increased. As a result, it is possible to make a trial calculation of the alternative benefit that can be expected when the surplus power E is used to increase the private power consumption.

Also, in some embodiments, the one or more first response plans Pa described above may include a response plan P for transmitting surplus power E to the storage battery 82 . That is, when this first response plan Pa is adopted, the transmission destination 8 of the surplus power E is the storage battery 82 . Specifically, for example, it may be a storage battery 82 of a power storage system such as a NAS battery, or a storage battery 82 of an EV (Electric Vehicle) vehicle.

The alternative profit when adopting the first response plan Pa with the storage battery 82 as another power transmission destination 8 is, for example, from the income when selling the power stored in the storage battery 82, the storage cost (b in FIG. 4) and It may be calculated by subtracting the power generation cost of the surplus power E. The income of the electric power stored in the storage battery 82 is the fuel price (j in FIG. 4), or the power demand in the target electric power system 7 or other electric power systems 7 (other districts) on the next day, for example, when sales are planned. The prediction (k in FIG. 4), the next day, 3 days, and 7 days later (price per unit electric energy) (l in FIG. 4) may be considered. In addition, in calculating the above power storage cost, it is possible to consider the cost of introducing the storage battery (the cost of purchasing the storage battery 82 having the required capacity, the site where the storage battery is installed, the installation cost), the operation cost, and the like. Note that the power storage cost may be calculated in consideration of the storage efficiency of the storage battery (e in FIG. 4) and the state of the storage battery such as maximum capacity and free capacity (f in FIG. 4).

Moreover, after determining whether or not this first response plan Pa can be adopted, if possible, the alternative profit may be calculated. This determination may take into consideration the state of the power storage device such as the free capacity. For example, when the free space on the storage battery 82 side is smaller than the surplus power E, the alternative profit for the first corresponding plan Pa may not be calculated. As a result, it is possible to prevent employment from being determined in situations where employment is not actually possible.

According to the above configuration, by transmitting the surplus electric power E to the storage battery 82, alternative profits from conversion to other energy such as power for EV vehicles and electric power sales are calculated. By this, it is possible to make a trial calculation of the alternative profit that can be expected by storing the surplus electric power E in the storage battery 82 .

Also, in some embodiments, the one or more first response plans Pa described above may include a response plan P for transmitting surplus power E to another plant 83 outside the facility where the power plant 71 is installed. That is, when this first response plan Pa is adopted, the transmission destination 8 of the surplus electric power E is the other plant 83 (neighboring factory).

The alternative profit in the case of adopting the first corresponding plan Pa with the other plant 83 as another power transmission destination is, for example, from the income (electricity sales income) obtained by selling the surplus electricity E to the other plant 83, It may be calculated by subtracting the power generation cost of the surplus power E. This electricity sales income is calculated by multiplying the electricity sales price (price per unit electricity amount) (m in FIG. 4) to the other plant 83 by the electricity amount to be sold (at least part of the surplus electricity E). can be Moreover, as for the amount of electric power to be sold, a plurality of amounts of electric power may be prepared so that the relationship between the amount of electric power sold and the income from the electric power sale can be understood.

According to the above configuration, the surplus power E is transmitted to the other plant 83 to calculate the alternative profit from selling power. By this, it is possible to make a trial calculation of the alternative profit that can be expected by transmitting the surplus power to the other plant 83 .

Next, several embodiments of the output information generator 5 described above will be described. FIG. 3 is a flow diagram showing a time series from output suppression instruction R to control of power plant 71 according to one embodiment of the present invention.

In some embodiments, when the load of the power plant 71 is suppressed in response to the output suppression instruction R, if income such as compensation or insurance money (hereinafter referred to as compensation or the like) can be obtained, the You can calculate your income.
That is, in some embodiments, as shown in FIG. 2, the benefits (hereinafter referred to as suppression It is also possible to further include a restrained profit trial calculation unit 4 configured to trial calculate the profit at the time. In this case, the above-described output information generation unit 5 generates the output information I based on the above-described trial calculation result Ca of the alternative profit and trial calculation result Cb of the profit during suppression.

More specifically, the profit during suppression may be the amount of income such as compensation. Alternatively, if the load of the power plant 71 is reduced to the limit value L or less, it may be possible to save operating costs such as fuel costs accordingly. Therefore, the profit at the time of restraint may be the sum of the amount of income such as compensation money and the operating cost expected to be saved. At this time, the operating cost is calculated by considering the fuel price (j in FIG. 4), the expected power generation efficiency due to temperature fluctuation (h in FIG. 4), and the expected power generation efficiency due to load fluctuation (i in FIG. 4). You can calculate.

In addition, the amount of income such as compensation is multiplied by the output suppression period and the compensation amount per unit period (for example, one day) if the compensation varies according to the length of the output suppression period. It may be calculated by calculation such as In addition, if the load of the power plant 71 is made smaller than the load corresponding to the limit value L, a higher amount of compensation or the like can be obtained. may be calculated separately.

According to the above configuration, if the compensation or the like can be obtained when the load of the power plant 71 is suppressed according to the output suppression instruction R, the profit (profit during suppression) when this load suppression is executed is calculated. As a result, based on the trial calculation results of both the alternative profit and the profit during suppression described above, either reducing the load of the power plant according to the output suppression instruction R or transmitting the surplus power E to another power transmission destination 8 is determined. It is possible to facilitate the judgment as to whether it is advantageous or not.

Further, in some embodiments, the output information generation unit 5 is configured to determine whether or not to adopt any one of the one or more first response plans Pa based on the above-described alternative profit trial calculation result Ca. You may have the plan judgment part 51 which was carried out. That is, the plan determination unit 51 may determine not to adopt the first corresponding plan Pa. In other words, in this case, adoption of the second response plan Pb is determined. Alternatively, the plan determination unit 51 may select a corresponding plan P to be adopted from among the one or more first corresponding plans Pa.

That is, in some embodiments, as shown in FIG. 2, the plan determination unit 51 determines whether or not to adopt one of the one or more first corresponding plans Pa based on the alternative benefit trial calculation result Ca. It may be configured to determine whether More specifically, the plan determination unit 51 may determine the corresponding plan P according to predetermined criteria. This determination criterion may determine the response plan P with the highest profit trial calculation value among the one or more first response plans Pa. Further, when the profit of the first response plan Pa is lower than the desired value, it may be determined that the second response plan Pb should be selected. Therefore, a threshold value may be set for the highest profit of the first response plant Pa. In this case, the judgment criterion is to judge the plan with the highest profit trial calculation result and a predetermined value or more. It can be.

In some other embodiments, as shown in FIGS. 2 and 3, the plan determination unit 51 determines one or more It may be configured to determine the response plan P that satisfies the determination criteria from among the first response plan Pa or the second response plan Pb. In the embodiment shown in FIGS. 2 and 3, the above-described output information generation unit 5 generates one or more first response plan Pa or second response plan Pa based on the trial calculation result Ca of the alternative profit and the trial calculation result Cb of the profit during suppression. Of the plans Pb, a corresponding plan P that satisfies the criterion is determined.

More specifically, in the embodiment shown in FIGS. 2 and 3, as shown in FIG. On the other hand, the driving support device 1 calculates the amount of profit obtained from each of the plurality of first response plans Pa and the amount of profit obtained from the second response plan Pb (S31). Then, these profit amounts are compared to determine which corresponding plan P to adopt (S32). Then, while transmitting power to the power transmission network 72 according to the limit value L (S34), according to the determined response plan P, the transmission destination of the surplus power E is automatically switched (S33a) or the load is reduced (S33b). It's like Further, as the output information I, the adopted response plan P and each amount of profit serving as the basis for the decision are displayed on the display device 12 .

According to the above configuration, the appropriate power transmission destination 8 of the surplus electric power E is determined, for example, the power transmission destination from which the highest power transmission destination can be obtained is determined from among a plurality of power transmission destination options based on the trial calculation result Ca of the substitution profit. can judge.

Also, in some embodiments, the power plant 71 may have multiple power sources such as coal-fired boilers and gas engines. Then, the output information generation unit 5 described above, in the case where the second response plan Pb is adopted, based on the power generation cost (previously described) of each of the plurality of types of power sources, the power source to be the target of load suppression (target It further comprises a target power source determination unit 52 configured to determine a power source.

For example, when the power plant 71 generates power with a plurality of types of power sources to cover the power to be output to the power transmission network 72, by suppressing or stopping the output of at least one of the plurality of power sources, , the output can be suppressed within the limit value L described above. Therefore, by preferentially suppressing the output from a power source with a high power generation cost among a plurality of types of power sources, it is possible to efficiently generate power from the viewpoint of the profit of the power plant 71 while satisfying the above limit value L. becomes possible. The target power source determining unit 52 may also calculate the load value or the power value to be generated for each determined target power source. In this case, the target power supply and the calculated value may be included in the output information I as a set.

According to the above configuration, when the power plant 71 includes a plurality of power sources such as a coal-fired boiler and a gas engine, the output of the power plant 71 as a whole is adjusted based on the power generation cost of each of the plurality of power sources. Select a suitable power supply to keep the limit L or less. As a result, it is possible to minimize the amount of loss when the load is reduced according to the output suppression instruction R, such as by preferentially suppressing the load of the power source with high power generation cost.

Further, in the above-described embodiment, the driving support device 1 performs the process when the output suppression instruction R is issued. In some other embodiments, the driving support device 1 may perform the above-described process when it is predicted that the output suppression instruction R will be issued. FIG. 5 is a diagram showing a flow of predicting the limit value L according to one embodiment of the present invention.

That is, in some embodiments, as shown in FIGS. 2 and 5, the driving support device 1 determines the timing at which the output suppression instruction R is issued based on the respective prediction results of the power demand and the amount of renewable energy generated. It further comprises an instruction prediction unit 6 configured to predict the . The output suppression instruction R may be issued until just before the start of the output suppression period, such as by 17:00 on the previous day. In such a case, the power plant 71 will be forced to make an urgent decision, but the above prediction makes it possible to proceed with consideration of countermeasures in advance. In this case, various predictions may be made using past performance (past performance) stored in the past performance database.

Specifically, a prediction result obtained by predicting the amount of power generated by renewable energy and power demand per unit period (for example, one day) in the electric power system 7 over a predetermined period is acquired, and the amount of power generated by renewable energy is calculated for each unit period. If the value obtained by subtracting the predicted value of power demand from the predicted value (excess power generation amount) is greater than a predetermined threshold value (0 or more), it may be determined that the output suppression instruction R is issued from the instruction side. This predetermined threshold value may be determined based on information obtained from the instruction side, such as a criterion for judging that the output suppression instruction R should be issued. Then, the limit value L for each power plant 71 in this case may be determined based on the past record of the excessive power generation amount and the limit value L instructed to the power plant 71 at that time. At this time, if the limit value L differs for each power plant 71, the limit value L may be determined based on the past record of the relationship between the excess power generation amount and the limit value L in the power plant 71 to be predicted. .

In addition, any of the well-known methods may be adopted for the prediction result of the power generation amount of the renewable energy and the electric power demand. For example, as shown in FIG. 4, the prediction of the power generation amount of renewable energy may be the total amount of wind power generation, hydraulic power generation, solar power generation, etc., where the power generation amount varies depending on environmental conditions (S49 in FIG. 5). ), and may be predicted based on weather forecasts.

Specifically, in the case of hydroelectric power generation, as a base load power source, a predicted value of the amount of hydroelectric power generation may be calculated based on past performance (S48 in FIG. 5).
In the case of wind power generation, the wind speed may be extracted from the weather forecast (S46 in FIG. 5), and the power generation amount may be predicted based on this wind speed and past performance. For example, a wind power generation forecast that calculates wind power generation from wind speed, created by learning (machine learning) the relationship between actual wind speed accumulated as past performance and actual wind power generation at that time A model may be used to calculate the predicted value of the amount of wind power generation from the wind speed (predicted value of wind speed) extracted from the weather forecast (S47 in FIG. 5).

In the case of photovoltaic power generation, light energy from the sun is converted into electrical energy, so the amount of power generated increases as the amount of solar radiation increases. However, when the amount of solar radiation increases, the air temperature and the temperature of the panel that converts the energy described above increase accordingly, so the power generation efficiency decreases. Therefore, the amount of solar radiation and the temperature of the panel may be predicted based on the weather forecast to calculate the power generation amount. More specifically, for example, the hours of sunshine and temperature per unit period are extracted from the weather forecast for a predetermined period (S41 in FIG. 5). In addition, the solar radiation intensity for each unit period is predicted based on weather information (sunny, cloudy, rainy, etc.) in the weather forecast. Then, by multiplying the solar radiation intensity and the sunshine duration for each unit period, the solar radiation amount per unit period is predicted (S42 in FIG. 5). Based on the temperature per period (S44 in FIG. 5), the amount of photovoltaic power generation is predicted through prediction of panel temperature (S45 in FIG. 5). In this manner, the amount of power generated by solar power generation may be calculated.

On the other hand, power demand forecasting may be performed based on weather forecasts and past power usage records. Specifically, the past record of power consumption is information in which the environmental record and the power consumption are associated with each other. Environmental performance is the past performance of environmental information, including weather information, that affects power demand. For example, in addition to weather, temperature, humidity, etc., information such as wind speed, amount of solar radiation, hours of sunshine, time of year, and season may be included. In other words, the past record of power consumption indicates the record of power consumption under the conditions indicated by a certain environmental record in the past. The past record of power consumption may include regional information, and it is possible to take into consideration the peculiarities of the region.

Then, using a demand forecast model that calculates power consumption from environmental information, created by learning (machine learning) the relationship between environmental performance and power consumption based on past power consumption results, weather forecasts are used. A predicted value of power demand may be calculated from the extracted information. For example, as shown in FIG. 5, the demand forecast model calculates the amount of solar radiation for each piece of environmental performance information, and includes at least one piece of information included in the calculated actual amount of solar radiation and the weather forecast, and the amount of power consumption. It is also possible to machine-learn the relationship between , and calculate the predicted value of power demand from the amount of solar radiation or the like. In the embodiment shown in FIG. 5, the weather is extracted from the weather forecast (S41 in FIG. 5) and the amount of solar radiation is predicted (S42 in FIG. 5). A prediction is calculated (S43 in FIG. 5).

Alternatively, the electric power demand is obtained by accumulating the demand of each consumer 75 connected to the electric power system 7, but since the tendency of the demand according to the weather forecast may differ for each consumer 75, Demand may be forecast every 75. Specifically, the location of each customer 75 belonging to the power system 7 is obtained from a power transmission destination information database that stores power transmission destination information including the location information, and the weather forecast is obtained for each location. Then, based on the comparison between each weather forecast for each location of each consumer 75 and the environmental performance stored in the past performance database, one or more power usage amounts are acquired from the past performance database, and the power The total amount of power consumption of each consumer belonging to grid 7 is assumed to be power demand. In this case, since the past results are searched using at least one of the information of the location and the weather forecast as a search key, there are cases where a plurality of results correspond to each customer 75. In this case, statistical processing such as averaging is performed. can be

In some embodiments, the above power transmission destination information includes location, personnel composition (age, gender, etc.), housing type (detached house, collective housing, etc.), facility type (commercial facility, industrial facility, scale, etc.). etc.) may be included. For example, detached houses tend to have relatively strong power demand due to temperature and humidity, commercial facilities tend to have low power demand at night, and businesses (industrial facilities) tend to have low power demand on holidays. Therefore, by including information other than the above location in the power transmission destination information, it becomes possible to predict the power demand with higher accuracy.

A driving assistance method corresponding to the processing executed by the driving assistance device 1 described above will be described below with reference to FIG. 6 . FIG. 6 is a diagram showing a driving assistance method according to one embodiment of the present invention.

The operation support method is a method of proposing a response on the power generation plant 71 side to the output suppression instruction R issued to maintain the supply and demand balance of electric power in the electric power system 7 . As shown in FIG. 6, the driving support method includes a receiving step (S1), a substitute profit trial calculation step (S2), and an output information generating step (S42). Note that, as shown in FIG. 6, the driving support method may include at least one of the profit trial calculation step (S3) during suppression and the plan determination step (S41). In the embodiment shown in FIG. 6, the driving support method further includes both a restraint profit trial calculation step (S3) and a plan determination step (S41).
These steps will be described in the order of steps in FIG.

At step S1 in FIG. 6, a receiving step is executed. The receiving step (S1) is a step of receiving the limit value L described above. Since this receiving step (S1) is the same as the processing content executed by the receiving unit 2 already described, details thereof will be omitted. As already described, the limit value L may be received when the output suppression instruction side such as the electric power company actually issues the output suppression instruction R. Alternatively, the receiving unit 2 may receive the output suppression instruction R when it predicts that it will receive it. In this case, before the receiving step (S1), an instruction prediction step (see FIG. 5) that performs the same processing as the instruction prediction unit 6 described above is executed, and it is predicted that the output suppression instruction R will be received. If so, the receiving step (S1) is executed.

In step S2, an alternative profit trial calculation step is executed. The substitute profit trial calculation step (S2) is a step of trial-calculating the substitute profit when one or more of the above-described first corresponding plans Pa are adopted, triggered by the reception of the limit value L in the above receiving step (S1). be. Since this alternative profit trial calculation step (S2) is the same as the processing content executed by the already explained alternative profit trial calculation unit 3, details thereof will be omitted.

In step S3, a restraint profit trial calculation step (S3) is executed. The restrained profit trial calculation step (S3) is a step of trial-calculating income received when the above-described second response plan Pb is adopted, triggered by the reception of the limit value L in the reception step (S1). Since the restraint profit trial calculation step (S3) is the same as the processing executed by the restraint profit trial calculation unit 4 described above, details thereof will be omitted.

In step S4, an output information generation step is executed. The output information generation step (S42) is a step of generating the output information I based on the alternative profit trial calculation result Ca calculated in the alternative profit trial calculation step (S2). Since this output information generation step (S42) is the same as the processing content executed by the output information generation unit 5 already described, details thereof will be omitted. As shown in FIG. 6, the output information generation step (S42) selects one or more first response plans Pa based on the alternative profit trial calculation result Ca calculated in the alternative profit trial calculation step (S2). A step of determining whether or not to adopt (plan determination step (S41)) may be provided. Since this plan determination step (S41) is the same as the processing content executed by the plan determination unit 51 already described, details thereof will be omitted.

In the embodiment shown in FIG. 6, in step S41, a plan determination step is executed, and one or more first response plans are determined based on one or more alternative benefit trial calculation results Ca and load suppression income trial calculation results Cb. From Pa or the second response plan Pb, the response plan P with the highest profit (response plan P that satisfies the determination criteria) is determined. Then, in step S42, output information I including the content determined in step S41 is generated, and displayed on the display device 12 in step S43.

The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and includes modifications of the above-described embodiments and modes in which these modes are combined as appropriate.

1 driving support device m storage device 12 display device 2 receiving unit 3 alternative profit trial calculation unit 4 suppression profit trial calculation unit 5 output information generation unit 51 plan determination unit 52 target power source determination unit 6 instruction prediction unit 7 electric power system 71 power generation plant 72 power transmission plant Network 73 Substation 74 Distribution network 75 Customer 8 Power transmission destination 81 Own facility 82 Storage battery 83 Other plant 85 Power transmission facility 9 Power company

R Output suppression instruction L Limit value I Output information E Surplus power Ep Planned value P Corresponding plan Pa First corresponding plan Pb Second corresponding plan Ca Trial calculation result (alternative profit)
Cb Trial calculation results (income from compensation, etc.)

Claims (10)

An operation support device configured to propose a response on the power plant side to an output suppression instruction issued to maintain the supply and demand balance of electric power in an electric power system,
a receiver configured to receive a limit value of power that can be transmitted from the power plant into the power system;
When adopting one or more first response plans for transmitting surplus power generated when the power plant is operated at a load higher than the load corresponding to the limit value to other power transmission destinations outside the power system an alternative profit estimation unit configured to estimate an alternative profit that is profit;
and an output information generation unit configured to generate output information based on the trial calculation result of the alternative profit. 2. The driving support device according to claim 1, wherein the one or more first response plans include using the surplus power to increase self-consumption of power in a facility in which the power generation plant is installed. . the other power transmission destination includes a storage battery;
3. The driving support device according to claim 1, wherein the one or more first response plans include transmitting the surplus power to the storage battery. The one or more first response plans according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein the surplus power is transmitted to another plant outside the facility where the power plant is installed. driving assistance device. The output information generation unit is
Claims 1 to 4, characterized by comprising a plan determination unit configured to determine whether or not to adopt any one of the one or more first response plans based on the result of the trial calculation of the alternative profit. The driving support device according to any one of 1. a restraint-time profit trial calculation unit configured to estimate a restraint-time profit when adopting a second response plan that restrains the load of the power plant according to the limit value,
The driving support device according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein the output information generating unit generates the output information based on the trial calculation result of the alternative profit and the trial calculation result of the profit during suppression. . The power plant has a plurality of types of power sources,
The output information generation unit is configured to determine the power source to suppress the load based on the power generation cost of each of the plurality of types of power sources when the second response plan is adopted. 7. The driving support device according to claim 6, further comprising a determination unit. 8. The method according to any one of claims 1 to 7, further comprising an instruction predicting unit that predicts a timing at which the output suppression instruction is issued based on prediction results of each of the power demand and the amount of renewable energy generated. The driving support device according to . An operation support method configured to propose a response on the power plant side to an output suppression instruction issued to maintain a balance between supply and demand of electric power in an electric power system,
a receiving step of receiving a limit value of power that can be transmitted from the power plant into the power system;
When adopting one or more first response plans for transmitting surplus power generated when the power plant is operated at a load higher than the load corresponding to the limit value to other power transmission destinations outside the power system an alternative profit trial calculation step for calculating an alternative profit that is profit;
and an output information generating step of generating output information based on the trial calculation result of the alternative profit. An operation support program configured to propose a response on the power plant side to an output suppression instruction issued to maintain a balance of supply and demand of electric power in a power system,
to the computer,
a receiver configured to receive a limit value of power that can be transmitted from the power plant into the power system;
When adopting one or more first response plans for transmitting surplus power generated when the power plant is operated at a load higher than the load corresponding to the limit value to other power transmission destinations outside the power system an alternative profit estimation unit configured to estimate an alternative profit that is profit;
An output information generating unit configured to generate output information based on the trial calculation result of the alternative profit, and a driving support program for realizing the output information.

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