JP7116627B2 - Information processing device, information processing method and information processing program - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to an information processing device, an information processing method, and an information processing program.

2. Description of the Related Art Conventionally, users who wish to use facilities such as inns, hotels, and restaurants can generally reserve facilities through the Internet, telephone, and the like. Further, the facility operator may perform so-called overbooking, for example, in anticipation of cancellations of reservations, accepting more reservations than the number of reservation slots.

Japanese Patent Application Laid-Open No. 2003-196406

By the way, when the facility operator overbooks, the number of customers who actually use the facility on the day of use may exceed the number of reservation slots, or conversely, the number may decrease. In other words, it is not easy for facility operators to accurately grasp the number of reservation slots that can be overbooked.

The present application has been made in view of the above, and an object thereof is to provide an information processing apparatus, an information processing method, and an information processing program capable of accurately determining the number of reservation slots that can be overbooked.

An information processing apparatus according to the present application includes an acquisition unit, an estimation unit, and a determination unit. The acquisition unit acquires reservation information, which is information related to reservations for facilities having a predetermined number of reservation slots. The estimation unit estimates a risk of cancellation of the reservation based on the reservation information acquired by the acquisition unit. The determination unit determines an excess number of reservation slots that can be overbooked at the facility based on the risk estimated by the estimation unit.

According to one aspect of the embodiments, it is possible to provide an information processing device, an information processing method, and an information processing program capable of accurately determining the number of reservation slots that can be overbooked.

FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram of information processing according to the embodiment. FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of a configuration of an information processing system according to the embodiment; FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of a configuration of an information processing apparatus according to an embodiment; FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of a user information table according to the embodiment; FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of a reservation information table according to the embodiment; FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of a compensation-related information table according to the embodiment; FIG. 7A is a diagram illustrating processing for determining the number of excess slots by the determining unit; FIG. 7B is a diagram illustrating processing for determining the number of excess frames by the determining unit; FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating processing for determining the number of excess frames by the determination unit. FIG. 9 is a flowchart illustrating a processing procedure of processing executed by the information processing apparatus according to the embodiment; 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of a hardware configuration of a computer that executes a program according to the embodiment; FIG.

Embodiments for implementing an information processing apparatus, an information processing method, and an information processing program according to the present application (hereinafter referred to as "embodiments") will be described in detail below with reference to the drawings. Note that the information processing apparatus, information processing method, and information processing program according to the present application are not limited to this embodiment.

Information processing according to the embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 1 is an explanatory diagram of information processing according to the embodiment. FIG. 1 describes information processing in which an information processing device estimates the risk of cancellation of a reservation and determines the number of reservation slots that can be overbooked (hereinafter referred to as the number of excess slots) based on the estimated risk. .

First, as shown in FIG. 1, a user makes a reservation request to the reservation server to request a reservation for facility use (step S1). When the reservation server receives the reservation request, and if there is a vacancy in the number of facilities that can be reserved, the reservation server registers the reservation related to the reservation request based on the reservation request (step S2). On the other hand, the reservation server notifies the user that the reservation cannot be made if there is no vacancy in the number of facilities that can be reserved. The number of available reservations is the sum of the number of reservation slots (for example, the number of rooms in the case of accommodation facilities) held by the facility and the excess number of slots described above. In addition, the reservation server transmits reservation information, which is information relating to reservation of facility use, to the information processing device (step S3).

When acquiring the reservation information from the reservation server, the information processing device performs risk estimation processing for estimating the risk of cancellation of the reservation (hereinafter referred to as cancellation risk) based on the acquired reservation information (step S4 ). Such risk estimation processing is performed for each reservation.

The information processing device stores a risk evaluation model. The information processing apparatus can calculate a cancellation risk score (hereinafter referred to as a cancellation score Sc) using such a risk evaluation model. The cancellation score Sc is an estimated value of the cancellation risk, and is information indicating the probability of occurrence of cancellation.

A risk evaluation model is generated, for example, by using past reservation information as an explanatory variable and teacher data (objective variable) as to whether or not a reservation has been canceled in the past. Reservation information includes, for example, the area of the reserved facility, the period of use of the reserved facility, the price of use, and the number and size of rooms to be used. A valuation model can be generated.

Furthermore, in addition to the characteristic information obtained from the reservation information, the characteristic information obtained from the information of the user who made the reservation can be used as an explanatory variable to generate a risk evaluation model. The reservation information includes user identification information, and the information processing device acquires user attribute and action history information based on the user identification information, and explains the acquired user attribute and action history. Can be a variable. The user information included in the reservation information may include user attributes and action history information.

Based on the cancellation risk estimated in step S4, the information processing device determines the number of excess slots, which is the number of reservation slots that can be overbooked at the facility (step S5). The information processing device can determine the number of excess slots by using, for example, the probability distribution of the number of reservation slots that will be canceled, which will be described later.

The information processing device transmits provision information based on the determined number of excess slots to a facility provider (hereinafter referred to as a facility provider) via the reservation server (step S6). Provided information is information for the facility operator to determine the number of available reservations (the sum of the number of reservation slots and the number of excess slots), and includes, for example, information such as the number of excess slots and the number of available reservations. The facility operator determines the above-described number of reservations that can be made, for example, based on the provided information including information on the number of excess slots. When the facility operator determines the number of available reservations including one or more excess slots, the facility operator transmits an overbooking permission request to the reservation server for permission of overbooking (step S7). If the number of excess slots included in the determined number of available reservations is zero, the facility operator transmits an overbooking disapproval request requesting that overbooking is not permitted.

Upon receiving the overbooking permission request, the reservation server updates the number of reservations that can be made for the overbooking permission request (step S8). This allows the facility operator to accept reservations so that overbooking is possible. In addition, the facility operator can reduce the number of vacant reservation slots on the date of use of the facility by determining the final number of available reservations from the excess number of slots based on the cancellation risk. In addition, the facility operator can avoid situations in which the number of customers actually using the facility on the day of use exceeds the number of reservation slots, or conversely, the number of customers actually using the facility decreases.

As described above, the information processing apparatus according to the embodiment can accurately determine the number of excess slots by using the cancellation risk to determine the number of excess slots.

In the above example, the destination of the provision information is the facility operator, but the destination of the provision information may be the reservation server, for example. For example, when the provision information is provided to the reservation server, the reservation server may determine whether or not the number of available reservations transmitted from the facility operator is possible based on the provision information. Specifically, if the number of excess slots determined independently by the facility operator exceeds the number of excess slots determined by the information processing device, the reservation server will not accept the number of available reservations from the facility operator. to notify you. As a result, it is possible to prevent the facility operator from setting a large number of excess quotas.

FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating an example of a configuration of an information processing system according to the embodiment; As shown in FIG. 2, the information processing system 100 according to the embodiment includes an information processing device 1, a plurality of terminal devices 2 ₁ to 2 _n (n is an integer equal to or greater than 2), a reservation server 3, and a plurality of facilities. It comprises devices 4 ₁ to 4 _m (m is an integer equal to or greater than 2) and an information providing server 5 .

The information processing device 1, the plurality of terminal devices 2 ₁ to 2 _n , the reservation server 3, the plurality of facility devices 4 ₁ to 4 _m , and the information providing server 5 can communicate with each other by wire or wirelessly via the network 6. Connected. The network 6 is, for example, a LAN (Local Area Network) or a WAN (Wide Area Network) such as the Internet. Terminal devices 2 ₁ to 2 _n are operated by users U ₁ to U _n .

In the following description, each of the terminal devices 2 ₁ to 2 _n is referred to as a terminal device 2 when indicated without distinction. Also, facility devices 4 ₁ to 4 _m are referred to as facility device 4 when they are indicated without distinction, and users U ₁ to U _n are referred to as user U when they are indicated without distinction.

The terminal device 2 is a terminal device of the user U, and is a smart device (communication terminal) such as a smart phone, a tablet terminal, a PDA (Personal Digital Assistant), or a personal computer. The terminal device 2 can execute various applications such as a browser and a facility reservation application. The terminal device 2 can access the reservation server 3 via the network 6 from an application such as a browser or a facility reservation application, and reserve facilities provided by each facility operator.

The facility device 4 is a facility company's device, and is provided for each facility company in the example shown in FIG. The facility operator is, for example, a company that operates facilities such as inns, hotels, pensions, restaurants, massage parlors, dental clinics, and beauty salons.

As shown in FIG. 2 , the reservation server 3 includes a communication section 50 , a storage section 51 and a control section 52 . The communication unit 50 is a communication interface that transmits and receives information to and from the network 6 . Control unit 52 can transmit and receive various types of information to and from each of information processing device 1 , terminal device 2 , and facility device 4 via communication unit 50 and network 6 .

The storage unit 51 stores various information necessary for the facility reservation service. The storage unit 51 is, for example, a semiconductor memory device such as a flash memory, or a storage device such as an HDD (Hard Disk Drive) or an optical disk.

The control unit 52 acquires facility information from the facility device 4 and stores it in the storage unit 51 . The facility information of the facility device 4 includes information on reservable facilities. Information on reservable facilities includes information such as the number of reservable rooms, the size of each room, the number of people who can use each room, and the usage price of each room, for example, when the facility is an accommodation facility.

When accessed from the terminal device 2, the control unit 52 provides the terminal device 2 with information on a facility information screen for making a reservation for a facility. The terminal device 2 displays information on the facility information screen on a display unit (not shown). The facility information screen includes, for example, information on the above-described reservable facilities. The user U can transmit a facility reservation application to the reservation server 3 by inputting to an input unit (not shown) while viewing the facility information screen displayed on the display unit.

When there is a reservation application, the control unit 52 transmits information of the reservation application to the facility device 4 of the facility for which the reservation application is made. The facility device 4 determines whether or not the reservation can be made based on the reservation application information transmitted from the reservation server 3. Send to When the control unit 52 acquires information indicating that the reservation is possible from the facility device 4 , the control unit 52 transmits to the terminal device 2 information inquiring whether or not to confirm the reservation. As a result, the reservation confirmation button is displayed on the display section of the terminal device 2 .

When the user U of the terminal device 2 operates the reservation confirmation button, the terminal device 2 transmits a reservation request to the reservation server 3 . When receiving the reservation request, the control unit 52 transmits information indicating that the reservation has been requested to the facility device 4 if the number of reserved slots is equal to or less than the number of available reservations at this time. When the facility device 4 acquires information indicating that there is a reservation request from the reservation server 3, the reservation is confirmed. When the number of reserved frames exceeds the number of available reservations, the control unit 52 notifies the terminal device 2 of the user U that the reservation is not possible. If the number of reserved slots exceeds the available number of reservations, the control unit 52 may not accept the reservation application, or may not display the facility information screen.

Further, when receiving a reservation request, the control unit 52 transmits reservation information to the information processing device 1 . The reservation information transmitted to the information processing device 1 includes, for example, the user ID (identifier) of the user U who made the reservation, the reservation ID, the reception date and time of the reservation, and information on the content of the reservation. The reservation content information includes, for example, usage period, facility name, facility area, number of users, usage price, number of rooms to be used, and size of room to be used.

Further, when the control unit 52 acquires an overbooking permission request from the facility device 4 or acquires provision information from the information processing device 1, the control unit 52 updates the number of available reservations based on the acquired request or information.

Further, when the reservation is canceled from the terminal device 2, the control unit 52 transmits a cancellation request to the facility device 4, and then acquires canceled information indicating that the reservation has been canceled. Send cancellation information to 1.

The information providing server 5 provides various information to the information processing device 1 and the terminal device 2 . For example, the information providing server 5 provides, for example, a news providing service that provides current affairs information, a weather forecast service, a search service, a shopping service, a route search service, a map providing service, a travel service, a restaurant introduction service, and a blog service. etc.

FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of a configuration of an information processing apparatus according to an embodiment; As shown in FIG. 3, the information processing apparatus 1 includes a communication section 10, a storage section 11, and a control section 12 (controller). The communication unit 10, the storage unit 11, and the control unit 12 will be specifically described below.

The communication unit 10 is a communication interface that transmits and receives information to and from the network 6 . The control unit 12 can transmit and receive various information to and from each of the terminal device 2 , the reservation server 3 , and the information providing server 5 via the communication unit 10 and the network 6 .

The storage unit 11 has a user information DB 20, a reservation information DB 21, and a facility information DB 22. The storage unit 11 is, for example, a semiconductor memory device such as a flash memory, or a storage device such as an HDD or an optical disk.

The user information DB 20 has a user information table including a plurality of pieces of user information, which is user U's information. A user U is a user of a service provided by a business operator who operates and manages the information processing device 1 . The service provided by such a business operator is an online service that provides services to the user U online. Commercial transaction services, auction services provided by auction sites, video distribution services provided by video distribution sites, news distribution services provided by news sites, and the like are included.

FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of a user information table according to the embodiment; The user information table 41 shown in FIG. 4 is information in which information such as "user ID", "demographic attribute", "psychographic attribute", and "behavior history" are associated with each other.

“User ID” is identification information of user U. In the example shown in FIG. 4, “U1”, “U2”, and “U3” are set as user IDs of users U ₁ , U ₂ , and U ₃ . Such user ID is user U's account for the online service described above. The user ID may be any information that identifies the user U, and the identification information of the terminal device 2 used by the user U may be used as the user ID. For example, the user ID may be identification information specified by an HTTP (Hypertext Transfer Protocol) cookie.

“Demographic attribute” is information on user U's demographic attribute. Such "demographic attributes" are information such as user U's "sex" and "age", for example. "Gender" is set to "1" if the user U is female, and is set to "2" if the user U is male. Also, the age of the user U is set in the "age". Note that the "demographic attributes" are not limited to the attribute examples shown in FIG. 4, and may include various attributes such as the user U's occupation, family structure, annual income, address, birthplace, and educational background.

“Psychographic attribute” is information on psychological attributes of the user U, such as information on the values, lifestyle, personality, and preferences of the user U, for example. In the example shown in FIG. 4, "1" is set for each attribute element when the preference of the user U is relatively high, and "0" is set otherwise. In addition, the "psychographic attribute" is not limited to the attributes shown in FIG. 4, and may include various attributes such as economy, politics, baseball, soccer, other sports, sweets, personal computers, white goods, furniture good. Note that the attribute information is not limited to two levels of 0 and 1, and may be values of three or more levels.

The “action history” is information on the action history of the user U on the various sites described above. "Action history" includes, for example, the history of facility reservations on facility reservation sites, the purchase history of products or services on e-commerce sites and auction sites, the viewing history of videos on video distribution sites, and the news viewed on news sites. history of The "action history" includes information such as actions (for example, clicks) on advertisements provided on each site.

The reservation information DB 21 has a reservation information table containing a plurality of pieces of reservation information that are information relating to reservations of facilities of facility operators. FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of a reservation information table according to the embodiment; The reservation information table 42 shown in FIG. 5 is information in which information such as "reservation ID", "user ID", "reception date and time", "reservation details", "cancellation information", and "cancellation score" are associated with each other. be.

"Reservation ID" is unique identification information assigned to each reservation. “User ID” is unique identification information assigned to each user U. The “reception date and time” is information indicating the date and time when the reservation server 3 received the reservation from the user U. FIG.

“Reservation content” is information indicating the content of the reservation received from the user U by the reservation server 3 . The "reservation details" include information such as the period of use, the name of the facility, the number of users, the region of the facility, the usage price, the number of rooms to be used, and the size of the room to be used.

The usage period is a period during which the user U uses the facility. The facility name is the name of the facility reserved by the user U. The number of users is the number of people who use the facility. The area of the facility is the area where the facility reserved by the user U is located.

The usage price is an amount that the user U pays to the facility operator when the facility is used according to the reservation details. For example, if the reserved facility is a lodging facility, and if the content of the reservation includes eating, drinking, massage, etc., the usage price includes the fee for meals, massage, etc., in addition to the accommodation fee. Moreover, when the reserved facility is a restaurant, the usage price is the price necessary for eating and drinking in the facility.

The number of rooms to be used is the number of rooms reserved by the user U. The size of the room to be used is the size of the room reserved by the user U. If the reserved facility is a restaurant, information on the type of place of use (table seats, counter seats, tatami mats, etc.) and the size of the place of use are included instead of the number of rooms.

"Cancellation information" is information about cancellation of a reservation, and includes information indicating whether or not the reservation has been canceled, and information on the date and time of cancellation, which is the date and time when the cancellation of the reservation was received.

“Cancellation score” is information of the cancellation score Sc calculated by the control unit 12 . In the example shown in FIG. 6, the cancellation scores Sc are expressed as "Sc1", "Sc2", "Sc3", etc. for convenience, but the cancellation scores Sc are numerical scores.

The facility information DB 22 has a facility information table containing a plurality of pieces of facility information that are information about each facility. FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of a facility information table according to the embodiment; The facility information table 43 shown in FIG. 6 is information in which information such as "facility ID", "facility name", "number of reservation slots", and "reservation status" are associated with each other.

“Facility ID” is unique identification information assigned to each facility. "Facility name" is the name of the facility. "Number of reservation slots" is the upper limit of the number of reservation slots that the facility has. For example, in the case of accommodation facilities, the "reservation quota" may be the total number of rooms, or the room grade (suite room or normal room, etc.) or type (non-smoking or smoking, single bed or double bed). bed, etc.) may be the number of rooms for each category. That is, the number of reserved slots and the number of surplus slots in the "reservation status" may be based on the total number of rooms or the number of rooms for each room category.

"Reservation status" is information about the reservation status of facilities. The "reservation status" includes information such as the date of use, the number of reserved slots, and the number of excess slots. The usage date is the date on which the user U uses the facility. The number of reserved slots indicates the number of reservations received by the reservation server 3 . The number of excess slots indicates the number of reservation slots that can be overbooked. As the information on the number of excess slots, either the number of excess slots determined by the information processing device 1 or the number of excess slots registered by the facility operator is input.

For example, the facility name "facility A" has already been "70
is reserved. "Facility A" indicates that the number of excess slots is "10", that is, the number of available reservations is "110", and the remaining number of reservation slots is "40".

Further, for example, for the facility name “facility A”, the usage date is “2018/8/4”, the number of excess slots is “15”, and the number of reserved slots is “115”. That is, it indicates that the facility A cannot be reserved for the usage date of "2018/8/4".

Regarding the facility information table 43 , when the date of use has passed, the number of reserved slots and the number of excess slots for the relevant date of use are deleted from the facility information table 43 .

The control unit 12 includes, for example, a microcomputer having a CPU (Central Processing Unit), a ROM (Read Only Memory), a RAM (Random Access Memory), an input/output port, and various circuits.

As shown in FIG. 3 , the control unit 12 includes an acquisition unit 30 , a generation unit 31 , an estimation unit 32 , a determination unit 33 and a provision unit 34 . The functions of the acquiring unit 30, the generating unit 31, the estimating unit 32, the determining unit 33, and the providing unit 34 are, for example, controlled by the CPU of the control unit 12 by executing a program stored in the RAM, ROM, or storage unit 11 of the control unit 12. is implemented by reading and executing

Note that the acquiring unit 30, the generating unit 31, the estimating unit 32, the determining unit 33, and the providing unit 34 are each configured partially or wholly by hardware such as ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit) or FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array). may be

The acquisition unit 30 acquires reservation information, cancellation information, and the like from the reservation server 3 . After acquiring the reservation information from the reservation server 3 , the acquisition unit 30 adds the acquired reservation information to the reservation information table 42 . The reservation information includes a reservation ID, a user ID, reception date and time, and reservation details, and these pieces of information are added to the reservation information table 42 . The acquiring unit 30 also reflects the reservation information in the reservation information table 42 and counts up the corresponding facility ID and the number of reserved slots for the date of use in the facility information table 43 .

Further, when acquiring the cancellation information from the reservation server 3 , the acquisition unit 30 adds the acquired cancellation information to the reservation information table 42 . The cancellation information includes a reservation ID and information on the date and time of cancellation. Based on this information, information indicating that the reservation has been canceled and information on the date and time of cancellation are added to the reservation information table 42 . In addition, the acquiring unit 30 reflects the cancellation information in the reservation information table 42 and counts down the number of reserved slots for the corresponding facility ID and usage date in the facility information table 43 .

Further, the acquisition unit 30 can acquire user information of the user U from the information providing server 5 . After acquiring the user information, the acquiring unit 30 adds the acquired user information to the user information table 41 . Note that the acquiring unit 30 can also acquire user information from the terminal device 2 , and in this case also, can add the acquired user information to the user information table 41 .

In addition, the acquisition unit 30 acquires external factor information related to external factors occurring on the day of use of the facility from the information providing server 5 . External factors include, for example, the weather at the facility, events occurring around the facility, current affairs related to the facility, and the like.

For example, information on the weather in a facility includes weather such as sunny, rainy, and cloudy weather, probability of precipitation, expected amount of rainfall, wind speed, weather warning, and the like. As an event held around a facility, there is information such as the holding period, the holding place, and the content of the event. Information related to current affairs related to the facility includes information indicating that an incident occurred in the vicinity of the facility, information indicating that the facility and other facilities in the vicinity became a hot topic on blogs and SNS (Social Networking Services), and facilities. Information indicating that the introduced television broadcast was performed, etc. is included.

The generation unit 31 executes machine learning using the user information and reservation information stored in the storage unit 11 to generate a risk evaluation model, which is a learning model for evaluating the risk of cancellation of reservations. The generating unit 31 stores the generated risk evaluation model information in the storage unit 11 .

For example, the generation unit 31 may obtain a regression model as a learning model, with the presence or absence of cancellation of a reservation as an objective variable (correct answer data), and each feature information extracted from reservation information and user information as explanatory variables (features). can. The characteristic information extracted from the reservation information includes, for example, the period of use of the facility, the name of the facility, the region of the facility, the number of users, the price of use, the number of rooms to be used, and the size of the room to be used.

Further, the feature information extracted from the user information includes, for example, each attribute of the user U who made the reservation, the action history of the user U who made the reservation, and the like. The attributes of the user U are the demographic attributes and psychographic attributes described above. The action history of the user U includes access history to the site, purchase history of services and products on the site, and the like.

In addition, based on the reservation information stored in the storage unit 11, the generation unit 31 can also use the reservation history of the user U and the reservation status of other facilities of the user U as explanatory variables. For example, it is the cancellation rate of past facility reservations by the user U, and information as to whether or not the user U has duplicate reservations for a plurality of facilities during the same period.

The generating unit 31 obtains, as a risk evaluation model, a regression model in which, for example, whether or not a reservation has been canceled is used as an objective variable (correct answer data), and each feature information extracted from reservation information and user information is used as an explanatory variable (feature). For example, the generation unit 31 obtains a regression model as shown in the following formula (1) as the risk evaluation model.
y=ω ₁ x ₁ +ω ₂ x ₂ + + ω _n x _n (1)

In the above formula (1), "x" is an explanatory variable corresponding to each feature information extracted from reservation information and user information. "y" indicates whether or not the reservation has been canceled. If there is a cancellation for the reservation, "y" = "1", and if there is no cancellation for the reservation, "y" = "-1" or becomes "0".

Also, in the above equation (1), "ω" is a coefficient of "x" and indicates a predetermined weight value. Specifically, “ω ₁ ” is the weight value of “x ₁ ”, “ω ₂ ” is the weight value of “x ₂ ”, and “ω _n ” is the weight value of “x _n ”. is. Thus, the above formula ( ₁ ) is a variable (for example, "ω1· x _1" ).

Note that the information that the generating unit 31 treats as explanatory variables is not limited to the examples described above. For example, the generation unit 31 can also handle information such as the predicted weather on the date of facility use and the day of the week on the date of facility use as explanatory variables. For example, if the weather forecasted on the day the facility is used is bad (for example, storm, typhoon, cold wave, etc.), the possibility of cancellation increases. It is possible to improve the estimation accuracy of the cancellation risk.

The generation unit 31 can also use the difference between the reception date and time and the usage date and time as an explanatory variable. This is because the probability of cancellation may change depending on the difference between the reception date and time and the usage date and time. For example, when the date and time of reception is immediately before the date and time of use, the possibility of the reservation being canceled is low compared to when the date and time of reception is far from the date and time of use. Therefore, by using the difference between the reception date and time and the usage date and time as an explanatory variable, it is possible to improve the accuracy of estimating the cancellation risk.

In addition, the generation unit 31 may use the reservation status (for example, reservation rate) of facilities in the vicinity, and the presence or absence of each type of event (music event, sports event, comic market, etc.) at the usage date and time as explanatory variables. can.

Note that the generation unit 31 can also generate a common risk evaluation model for all facilities, and for each facility of n (n is a natural number) or more and the type of facility (for example, accommodation facilities such as hotels, inns, and pensions). It is also possible to generate a risk evaluation model for each type of restaurant (type of restaurant such as Chinese, Japanese, Italian, etc.). The generation unit 31 can also generate a risk assessment model for each season. The generation unit 31 can also generate a risk evaluation model without using user information.

The generation unit 31 can also generate a risk assessment model using SVM (Support Vector Machine) or other machine learning methods. The generation unit 31 can also generate a risk assessment model using deep learning technology. For example, the generation unit 31 can generate a risk assessment model by appropriately using various deep learning techniques such as DNN (Deep Neural Network), RNN (Recurrent Neural Network), and CNN (Convolutional Neural Network).

The estimation unit 32 estimates cancellation risk based on the reservation information acquired by the acquisition unit 30 . For example, the estimation unit 32 extracts from the storage unit 11 user information including attribute information and action history of the user U associated with the user ID included in the reservation information acquired by the acquisition unit 30 .

Then, the estimating unit 32 calculates the cancellation score Sc can be calculated. Specifically, the estimating unit 32 can calculate the cancellation score Sc by calculating the following formula (2). The estimation unit 32 adds the calculated result to the reservation information table 42 .
Sc = ω ₁ x ₁ + ω ₂ x ₂ + + ω _n x _n (2)

The determination unit 33 determines the number of excess slots that can be overbooked based on the cancellation risk estimated by the estimation unit 32 . For example, the determination unit 33 calculates the average value of the cancellation scores of the number of reserved slots (see FIG. 6) on the date of use of the facility, and determines the excess number of slots based on the average value.

The determination unit 33 also generates, for example, a probability distribution of the number of reservation slots that will be canceled based on the cancellation risk, and determines the number of excess slots based on this probability distribution. Here, the processing for determining the number of excess frames using probability distribution will be described with reference to FIGS. 7A and 7B.

7A and 7B are diagrams showing the process of determining the number of excess slots by the determining unit 33. FIG. FIGS. 7A and 7B show graphs in which the horizontal axis indicates the number of cancellations (the number of reservation frames for which cancellations occur), and the vertical axis indicates the probability of occurrence of each number of cancellations. 7A and 7B, the average value of cancellation risk is assumed to be the same.

As shown in FIGS. 7A and 7B , the determination unit 33 uses the number of cancellations as a random variable, calculates the probability of occurrence of each number of cancellations based on the cancellation risk for each reservation, and plots them on a probability distribution.

Also, the determining unit 33 can generate a probability distribution using, for example, Monte Carlo simulation. Specifically, for each explanatory variable used to calculate the cancellation score Sc, the determination unit 33 determines the fluctuation of each explanatory variable (for example, the normal distribution of the temperature with an average of XX ° C. and the standard deviation of Probability ratio of fine weather and rain), explanatory variables are generated by performing simulation using random numbers. Then, the determination unit 33 calculates the number of cancellations from all reservations (the number of reserved slots) based on the cancellation score Sc using the generated explanatory variables. Then, the determination unit 33 generates a probability distribution of the number of cancellations by taking one sample of the calculated number of cancellations and accumulating a plurality of samples.

Here, as shown in FIGS. 7A and 7B, even if the average value of cancellation risk is the same, the occurrence probability of the number of cancellations, which is a random variable, may differ. That is, even if the average value of the cancellation risk is the same, the distribution shape of the probability distribution may differ.

Specifically, even if the peaks of the distribution both have the number of cancellations “2”, the peaks of the distribution in FIG. 7A have a steeper shape than the peaks of the distribution in FIG. 7B. In other words, in the probability distribution of FIG. 7A, the occurrence probability P2a of the cancellation number "2" is significantly higher than the occurrence probability P1a of the cancellation number "1". On the other hand, in the probability distribution shown in FIG. 7B, where the peaks of the distribution are gentle, the occurrence probability P2b of the cancellation number "2" is slightly higher than the occurrence probability P1b of the cancellation number "1".

In other words, the probability distribution of FIG. 7A is a probability distribution in which the random variable with the number of cancellations “2” is more likely to occur than the other random variables, and the probability distribution in FIG. It can be said that the variables also have probability distributions that are relatively likely to occur.

Therefore, the determining unit 33 determines the number of excess frames based on such probability distribution. For example, as shown in FIG. 7A, the determination unit 33 determines that the difference between the occurrence probability P2a of the number of cancellations "2", which is the peak of the distribution, and the occurrence probability P1a of the number of cancellations "1" is equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold. , the number of cancellations "2" is determined as the number of excess frames. That is, in FIG. 7A, since the probability of the number of cancellations being "2" is extremely high, the number of excess slots is determined to be "2".

Further, for example, as illustrated in FIG. 7B, the determination unit 33 determines that the difference between the probability P2b of occurrence of the number of cancellations “2”, which is the peak of the distribution, and the probability P1b of occurrence of the number of cancellations “1” is less than a predetermined threshold. If there is, the number of cancellations "1" is determined as the number of excess frames. That is, in FIG. 7B, the number of cancellations of "1" is relatively more likely to occur than the number of cancellations of "2", so the surplus number of slots is determined to be "1" on the safe side.

In this way, the determining unit 33 can accurately determine the number of excess frames that can be overbooked by using the probability distribution of the number of cancellations.

Note that the determination unit 33 may use the excess number of frames obtained by further reducing the number of excess frames determined above by a predetermined number of frames as the final determination value. As a result, it is possible to avoid with high accuracy the situation in which the number of people actually using the facility on the day of use exceeds the number of reservation slots.

Further, the determination unit 33 may determine the number of excess frames by taking external factor information into account. Specifically, the determination unit 33 determines the number of excess slots based on the cancellation risk and external factors. For example, the determination unit 33 models the cancellation risk and the correlation with external factors, and determines the number of excess quotas based on this model.

Specifically, when the cancellation risk is a predetermined value, the determination unit 33 generates a model in which the cancellation risk becomes higher than the predetermined value when it rains at the facility. More specifically, the determining unit 33 may generate a model for each probability of precipitation, for each amount of precipitation, for each maximum temperature (or minimum temperature), and for each wind speed. In this way, the number of excess quotas can be determined with high accuracy by taking into account external factors of the facility.

Note that the determining unit 33 is not limited to modeling the correlation between the cancellation risk and the external factor, and may acquire the cancellation risk estimated by the estimating unit 32 in consideration of the external factor, for example.

Note that the timing of the processing for determining the number of excess frames by the determination unit 33 may be performed arbitrarily. For example, the determining unit 33 may perform the process of determining the number of excess slots each time a reservation is registered, or the acquiring unit 30 acquires external factor information at predetermined intervals and determines whether there is a change in the external factor of the facility. The number of excess slots may be determined on a case-by-case basis. This point will be described with reference to FIG.

FIG. 8 is a diagram showing the process of determining the number of excess frames by the determination unit 33. As shown in FIG. FIG. 8 describes the decision processing when the weather forecast for the facility, which is an external factor, changes from sunny to rainy. Note that the upper graph in FIG. 8 shows the probability distribution when the weather forecast is sunny, and the determination unit 33 determines the number of excess frames to be “2” when using this probability distribution. do.

As shown in FIG. 8, for example, when the weather forecast for the day the facility is used changes from sunny to rainy, the determination unit 33 determines the probability distribution when the external factor is sunny, and the probability distribution when the external factor is rain. regenerate to

Then, the determining unit 33 corrects the excess frame number based on the regenerated probability distribution. In the example shown in the lower part of FIG. 8, in the probability distribution for rain, the peak of the distribution shifts to the number of cancellations "3", and the probability of occurrence of the number of cancellations "1" and "2" is extremely low. . In such a case, the determination unit 33 corrects the number of excess frames “2” determined based on the probability distribution for fine weather to “3”.

In this way, the determining unit 33 corrects the number of excess slots in accordance with changes in the external factors of the facility. Since the number can be determined, it is possible to accurately determine the number of excess frames.

Returning to FIG. 3, the providing unit 34 will be described. The provision unit 34 provides provision information based on the number of excess slots determined by the determination unit 33 . For example, the provision unit 34 provides the facility operator with provision information including the determined number of excess slots. Alternatively, the providing unit 34 may provide provision information including the number of available reservations for the facility (the sum of the number of reservation slots and the number of excess slots). You may provide provision information including.

As a result, the facility operator can determine the number of excess quotas to be set based on the provided information, and therefore can accurately determine the number of excess quotas to be set.

Moreover, the timing of providing the provision information by the provision unit 34 may be arbitrary. For example, the provision unit 34 may provide the provision information when receiving an acquisition request from the facility operator. In such a case, the determination unit 33 performs processing for determining the excess number of slots at the timing when the acquisition request is received, and the provision unit 34 provides provision information including the excess number of slots determined at this timing.

Thereby, the provision information can be provided only when the facility operator needs it, in other words, it is possible to prevent the provision information from being provided unnecessarily. Note that the provision unit 34 may provide the provision information not only when receiving an acquisition request from the facility operator, but also, for example, each time an external factor of the facility changes.

Further, the destination of the provided information is not limited to the facility operator, and may be, for example, the reservation server 3 . For example, the reservation server 3 updates the number of excess slots in the facility information table 43 based on the provided information.

A processing procedure of processing executed by the information processing apparatus 1 according to the embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 9 . FIG. 9 is a flowchart showing a processing procedure of processing executed by the information processing apparatus 1 according to the embodiment.

As shown in FIG. 9, the providing unit 34 determines whether or not there is an acquisition request from the facility operator (step S101). When receiving an acquisition request from the facility operator (step S101, Yes), the acquisition unit 30 acquires reservation information (step S102).

Next, the acquisition unit 30 acquires external factor information, which is information about external factors of the facility (step S103). The estimation unit 32 estimates the cancellation risk based on the acquired reservation information (step S104).

Subsequently, the determination unit 33 generates a probability distribution of the number of reservation slots that will be canceled based on the cancellation risk and external factors (step S105). Subsequently, the determining unit 33 determines the number of excess slots based on the generated probability distribution (step S106).

Subsequently, the provision unit 34 provides the facility operator with provision information based on the excess number of slots determined by the determination unit 33 (step S107), and ends the process. On the other hand, in step S101, when there is no acquisition request from the facility operator (step S101, No), the providing unit 34 ends the process.

The information processing apparatus 1 in the above-described embodiments is realized by executing a program by a computer 200 configured as shown in FIG. 9, for example.

10 is a diagram illustrating an example of a hardware configuration of a computer that executes a program according to the embodiment; FIG. Computer 200 includes CPU 201 , RAM 202 , ROM 203 , HDD 204 , communication interface (I/F) 205 , input/output interface (I/F) 206 and media interface (I/F) 207 .

The CPU 201 operates based on programs stored in the ROM 203 or HDD 204 and controls each unit. The ROM 203 stores a boot program executed by the CPU 201 when the computer 200 is started, a program depending on the hardware of the computer 200, and the like.

The HDD 204 stores data and the like used by programs executed by the CPU 201 . The communication interface 205 corresponds to the communication unit 10, receives data from other devices via the network 6, sends the data to the CPU 201, and transmits data generated by the CPU 201 to other devices via the network 6.

The CPU 201 controls output devices such as a display and a printer, and input devices such as a keyboard and a mouse, through an input/output interface 206 . The CPU 201 acquires data from the input device via the input/output interface 206 . The CPU 201 also outputs the generated data to an output device via the input/output interface 206 .

The media interface 207 reads programs or data stored in the recording medium 208 and provides them to the CPU 201 via the RAM 202 . The CPU 201 loads the program from the recording medium 208 onto the RAM 202 via the media interface 207 and executes the loaded program. The recording medium 208 is, for example, an optical recording medium such as a DVD (Digital Versatile Disc) or a PD (Phase change rewritable disc), a magneto-optical recording medium such as an MO (Magneto-Optical disk), a tape medium, a magnetic recording medium, or a semiconductor memory. etc.

The CPU 201 of the computer 200 can implement the functions of the acquisition unit 30 , the generation unit 31 , the estimation unit 32 , the determination unit 33 and the provision unit 34 described above by executing the programs loaded on the RAM 202 . Also, the obtaining unit 30, the generating unit 31, the estimating unit 32, the determining unit 33, and the providing unit 34 may be configured partially or wholly only by hardware.

The CPU 201 of the computer 200 reads the programs from the recording medium 208 and executes them, but as another example, these programs may be acquired via the network 6 from another device. Note that the HDD 204 corresponds to the storage unit 11 and stores data similar to that of the storage unit 11 . Also, instead of the HDD 204, a semiconductor memory device such as a RAM or a flash memory, or a storage device such as an optical disk may be used.

The information processing device 1 according to the embodiment includes an acquisition unit 30 , an estimation unit 32 and a determination unit 33 . The acquisition unit 30 acquires reservation information, which is information about reservations for facilities having a predetermined number of reservation slots. Based on the reservation information acquired by the acquisition unit 30, the estimation unit 32 estimates a cancellation risk, which is the risk of cancellation of the reservation. Based on the cancellation risk estimated by the estimation unit 32, the determination unit 33 determines the number of excess slots, which is the number of reservation slots that can be overbooked at the facility. This makes it possible to accurately determine the number of reservation slots that can be overbooked.

Also, the estimation unit 32 estimates the cancellation risk for each reservation. The determination unit 33 generates a probability distribution of the number of reservation slots that will be canceled based on the risk of each reservation, and determines the number of excess slots based on the probability distribution. By using the probability distribution in this way, it is possible to accurately determine the number of excess frames.

The acquisition unit 30 also acquires external factor information related to external factors that occur on the day the facility is used. The determination unit 33 determines the number of excess slots based on the cancellation risk and external factors. In this way, by determining the number of excess slots in consideration of external factors, it is possible to accurately determine the number of excess slots.

In addition, external factors include at least one of weather at the facility, events occurring around the facility, and current affairs related to the facility. This makes it possible to accurately determine the number of excess frames.

Further, the acquisition unit 30 acquires external factor information at predetermined intervals. The determination unit 33 determines the number of excess slots each time the external factor changes. As a result, the excess number of slots can be corrected in accordance with changes in external factors of the facility.

The information processing device 1 also includes a providing unit 34 . The provision unit 34 provides provision information based on the number of excess slots determined by the determination unit 33 . As a result, for example, the facility operator can accurately determine the number of excess slots to be set based on the provided information.

Further, the provision unit 34 provides the provision information when receiving an acquisition request from the facility operator. As a result, the facility operator can provide the information only when necessary, in other words, it is possible to prevent unnecessary information from being provided.

Further, the information processing apparatus 1 described above may be realized by a plurality of server computers, and depending on the function, it may be realized by calling an external platform or the like using an API (Application Programming Interface), network computing, or the like. The configuration can be changed flexibly.

Also, the "section, module, unit" described above can be read as "means" or "circuit". For example, the acquisition unit can be read as acquisition means or an acquisition circuit.

Although the present invention has been described using the above embodiments, the technical scope of the present invention is not limited to the scope described in the above embodiments. It is obvious to those skilled in the art that various modifications or improvements can be made to the above embodiments. In addition, it is clear from the description of the scope of the claims that forms with such modifications or improvements can also be included in the technical scope of the present invention.

1 information processing device 2, 2 ₁ to 2 _n terminal device 3 reservation server 4, 4 ₁ to 4 _m facility device 5 information providing server 6 network 10, 50 communication unit 11, 51 storage unit 12, 52 control unit 20 user information DB
21 Reservation information DB
22 Facility information DB
30 acquisition unit 31 generation unit 32 estimation unit 33 determination unit 34 provision unit 41 user information table 42 reservation information table 43 facility information table 100 information processing system

Claims (9)

an acquisition unit for acquiring reservation information, which is information relating to reservations for facilities having a predetermined number of reservation slots;
an estimation unit that estimates a risk of cancellation of the reservation based on the reservation information acquired by the acquisition unit;
a determination unit that determines the number of excess slots, which is the number of reservation slots that can be overbooked in the facility, based on the risk estimated by the estimation unit;
with
The acquisition unit
further acquiring external factor information relating to external factors that occur on the day of use of the facility and include current affairs related to the facility;
The decision unit
determining the number of excess quotas based on the risk and the external factors;
The estimation unit
estimating the risk for each appointment;
The decision unit
Based on the risk for each reservation, a probability distribution is generated that indicates the probability of occurrence for each number of cancellations, which is the number of reservations that can be canceled, and the number of cancellations with the highest probability of occurrence and the probability of occurrence are as follows: Based on the difference in the probability of occurrence between the number of cancellations and the number of cancellations of a point, the number of cancellations with the highest probability of occurrence is set as the excess number of slots, or the number of cancellations with the next highest probability of occurrence is set as the number of excess slots. deciding whether to
An information processing device characterized by: The decision unit
The information processing apparatus according to claim 1 , wherein the probability distribution is generated using a Monte Carlo simulation. The decision unit
3. The information processing apparatus according to claim 1, wherein the excess number of slots is determined based on the risk and the external factor. The external factors are
4. The information processing apparatus according to claim 3 , including at least one of the weather at said facility and an event taking place around said facility. The acquisition unit
acquiring the external factor information at predetermined intervals;
The decision unit
5. The information processing apparatus according to claim 3 , wherein the number of excess slots is determined each time the external factor changes. The information processing apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 5 , further comprising a provision unit that provides provision information based on the excess number of slots determined by the determination unit. The providing unit
7. The information processing apparatus according to claim 6 , wherein the provision information is provided when an acquisition request is received from a business operator of the facility. A computer-executed information processing method comprising:
an acquisition step of acquiring reservation information, which is information relating to reservations for facilities having a predetermined number of reservation slots;
an estimation step of estimating a risk of cancellation of the reservation based on the reservation information acquired by the acquisition step;
a determination step of determining an excess number of reservation slots that can be overbooked at the facility based on the risk estimated by the estimation step;
including
The obtaining step includes
further acquiring external factor information relating to external factors that occur on the day of use of the facility and include current affairs related to the facility;
The determining step includes:
determining the number of excess quotas based on the risk and the external factors;
The estimation step includes
estimating the risk for each appointment;
The determining step includes:
Based on the risk for each reservation, a probability distribution is generated that indicates the probability of occurrence for each number of cancellations, which is the number of reservations that can be canceled, and the number of cancellations with the highest probability of occurrence and the probability of occurrence are as follows: Based on the difference in the probability of occurrence between the number of cancellations and the number of cancellations of a point, the number of cancellations with the highest probability of occurrence is set as the excess number of slots, or the number of cancellations with the next highest probability of occurrence is set as the number of excess slots. deciding whether to
An information processing method characterized by: an acquisition procedure for acquiring reservation information, which is information relating to the reservation of a facility having a predetermined number of reservation slots;
an estimation procedure for estimating a risk of cancellation of the reservation based on the reservation information acquired by the acquisition procedure;
a determination procedure for determining the number of excess slots, which is the number of reservation slots that can be overbooked at the facility, based on the risk estimated by the estimation procedure;
on the computer, and
The acquisition procedure includes:
further acquiring external factor information relating to external factors that occur on the day of use of the facility and include current affairs related to the facility;
The determination procedure includes:
determining the number of excess quotas based on the risk and the external factors;
The estimation procedure includes:
estimating the risk for each appointment;
The determination procedure includes:
Based on the risk for each reservation, a probability distribution is generated that indicates the probability of occurrence for each number of cancellations, which is the number of reservations that can be canceled, and the number of cancellations with the highest probability of occurrence and the probability of occurrence are as follows: Based on the difference in the probability of occurrence between the number of cancellations and the number of cancellations of a point, the number of cancellations with the highest probability of occurrence is set as the excess number of slots, or the number of cancellations with the next highest probability of occurrence is set as the number of excess slots. deciding whether to
An information processing program characterized by

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