JP7081757B2 - Power generation amount prediction device, power generation amount prediction system, and power generation amount prediction method - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to a technique for predicting the amount of power generated by photovoltaic power generation, focusing on the fact that the weather changes from west to east.

Conventionally, since the power generation output of a solar power generation system varies depending on the weather and the like, various techniques have been proposed for predicting the amount of power generation.

For example, in Patent Document 1, the first acquisition unit that acquires current or future snow depth information, weather information, first temperature information, and solar radiation amount information, and the snow cover affects the power generation of the solar power generation facility. A threshold for determining the magnitude relationship between the first standard snow depth, which indicates the snow depth that does not reach, and the second standard snow depth, which indicates the snow depth that the solar power generation facility cannot generate due to snow that is larger than the first standard snow depth. When the determination unit and the first determination unit determine that the snow depth is a value between the first reference snow depth and the second reference snow depth, it is based on either the weather information or the first temperature information. , The snowfall coefficient calculation unit that calculates the snowfall coefficient that indicates the degree of influence of snowfall on the power generation of the solar power generation facility, and the power generation output that calculates the power generation output of the solar power generation facility based on the snowfall coefficient and the amount of solar radiation information. A power generation output prediction device including a calculation unit is disclosed.

Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2019-21978

However, in Patent Document 1, paying attention to the fact that the weather changes from west to east, the amount of power generation to be diagnosed is calculated based on the amount of power generation of the solar system located west of the solar system to be diagnosed. No predictions are disclosed.

The present invention has been made in view of such a problem, and an object of the present invention is to appropriately predict the amount of power generation by paying attention to the fact that the weather changes from the west to the east.

In order to solve the above problems, the power generation amount prediction device according to the first aspect of the present invention is a power generation amount prediction device capable of communicating with a solar power generation system installed in various places, and is one of the plurality. Regarding the solar power generation system, the receiving unit that receives the request for power generation amount prediction including the desired prediction time and the other solar power generation system located west of the one solar power generation system are specified, and the one sun The distance between the two is calculated based on the latitude and longitude of the installation location of the optical power generation system and the latitude and longitude of the installation location of the other solar power generation system, and the time difference is calculated based on the distance and the speed of change of the weather. , With reference to the power generation amount of the other solar power generation system before the predicted desired time by the time difference, and the power generation amount prediction unit which is the predicted value of the power generation amount at the predicted desired time of the one solar power generation system. , And an output unit that outputs the predicted value of the power generation amount prediction unit.

The power generation amount prediction system according to the second aspect of the present invention is a power generation amount prediction system including a plurality of solar power generation systems installed in various places, a terminal device related to each solar power generation system, and a power generation amount prediction device. The terminal device receives the first transmission unit that requests the power generation amount prediction device for the power generation amount prediction, the first reception unit that receives the prediction result from the power generation amount prediction device, and the prediction result. The power generation amount prediction device includes a display unit for displaying, and the power generation amount prediction device includes a second receiving unit that receives a request for power generation amount prediction including a desired prediction time from a terminal device related to one of the plurality of solar power generation systems. Identify the other solar power generation system located west of the one solar power generation system, and the latitude and longitude of the installation location of the one solar power generation system and the installation location of the other solar power generation system. The distance between the two is calculated based on the latitude and longitude, the time difference is calculated based on the distance and the speed of change of the weather, and the power generation of the other solar power generation system before the predicted desired time by the time difference. It is provided with a power generation amount prediction unit that refers to the amount and uses the predicted value of the power generation amount at the desired time of the prediction of the one solar power generation system, and a second transmission unit that transmits the predicted value of the power generation amount prediction unit. rice field.

The power generation amount prediction method according to the third aspect of the present invention is a power generation amount prediction system including a plurality of solar power generation systems installed in various places, a terminal device related to each solar power generation system, and a power generation amount prediction device. In the terminal device, the first transmission unit makes a request for power generation amount prediction to the power generation amount prediction device, and the first receiving unit receives the prediction result from the power generation amount prediction device. Upon receiving, the display unit displays the prediction result, and in the power generation amount prediction device, the second receiving unit receives the power generation amount including the predicted desired time from the terminal device related to the solar power generation system of one of the plurality. Upon receiving the request for prediction, the power generation amount prediction unit identifies another power generation system located west of the one solar power generation system, and the latitude and longitude of the installation location of the one solar power generation system. The distance between the two is calculated based on the latitude and longitude of the installation location of the other solar power generation system, and the time difference is calculated based on the distance and the speed of change of the weather. With reference to the power generation amount of the other solar power generation system just before, the predicted value of the power generation amount at the predicted desired time of the one solar power generation system is used, and the second transmission unit is the prediction of the power generation amount prediction unit. Send the value.

According to the present invention, it is possible to provide a technique for appropriately predicting the amount of power generation, focusing on the fact that the weather changes from the west to the east.

It is a block diagram of the power generation amount prediction system which concerns on embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which conceptually shows the concept of prediction by this system. It is a characteristic diagram that conceptually shows the concept of prediction by this system. It is a block diagram of the power generation amount prediction device of this system. It is a figure which shows various tables. It is a block diagram of the terminal apparatus of the same system. It is a flowchart which shows the processing procedure by this system.

Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.

FIG. 1 shows and describes a configuration of a power generation amount prediction system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

As shown in the figure, in the power generation amount prediction system, the power generation amount prediction device 1 communicates with the solar power generation system 2 and the terminal device 3 of the solar power generation facilities 100A, 100B ... installed in various places, such as the Internet. It is connected and configured wirelessly or by wire via the network 4. As the power generation amount prediction device 1, one or a plurality of server devices and the like can be adopted. As the terminal device 3, a smartphone, a tablet terminal, a notebook personal computer, a desktop personal computer, or the like can be adopted. In addition, the photovoltaic power generation system 2 includes a generator 2a and a management device 2b.

In such a configuration, the power generation amount predictor 1 is based on the power output of another PV system located west of one PV system, and the future power generation of one PV system. Predict and output the amount. When deciding the reference destination, the size, orientation, inclination, etc. of the solar panel may be comprehensively considered.

More specifically, the power generation prediction device 1 identifies another solar power generation system located west of one solar power generation system, and the latitude and longitude of the installation location of one solar power generation system and others. The distance between the two is calculated based on the latitude and longitude of the installation location of the solar power generation system in Japan, the time difference is calculated based on the distance and the speed of change of the weather, and the other time difference before the predicted desired time is calculated. It refers to the power generation amount of the solar power generation system and outputs it as the predicted value of the power generation amount at the predicted desired time of one solar power generation system.

Here, FIGS. 2 and 3 conceptually show and explain the concept of prediction by the power generation amount prediction system according to the embodiment of the present invention.

As shown in FIG. 2, there are many photovoltaic power generation facilities in various parts of the country, but the power generation amount prediction device 1 is located to the west of one photovoltaic power generation system for which a prediction request was made. One of the requested forecasts of the current or past power generation of the other PV system by identifying other PV systems and based on the speed of change of weather, the distance between them, etc. It is output as a predicted value at the predicted time of the photovoltaic power generation system. As mentioned above, when deciding the reference destination, in addition to the condition that it is located in the west, the picture, the size, orientation, inclination, etc. of the solar panel may be comprehensively considered.

As shown in FIG. 3, this is based on the fact that the amount of power generation changes as the weather changes from west to east, and this is used in the prediction. The power generation amount prediction system of the present embodiment is particularly suitable for prediction in minutes and hours.

FIG. 4 shows and describes the configuration of the power generation amount prediction device of the power generation amount prediction system.

As shown in the figure, the power generation amount prediction device 1 includes a control unit 11 including a CPU (Central Processing Unit) that controls the whole. The control unit 11 is connected to the communication unit 12, the display unit 13, the operation unit 14, and the storage unit 15 via the bus line 18. The communication unit 12 is a communication interface for communicating with the solar power generation system 2 and the terminal device 3 via a communication network 4 such as the Internet. The display unit 13 is a display device such as a liquid crystal display. The operation unit 14 is an operation device such as a mouse or a keyboard.

The storage unit 15 is composed of a memory such as a RAM (Random Access Memory) ROM (Read Only Memory), a hard disk drive (HDD; Hard Disc Drive), or the like, and stores a program executed by the control unit 11. .. Further, the storage unit 15 includes a generator information storage unit 16 and an external factor information storage unit 17.

More specifically, in the generator information storage unit 16, as shown in FIG. 5A, the latitude / longitude of the installation location of the power generation facility and the equipment scale (for example, large) are associated with the power generation facility ID. Medium, small, etc.), years of installation, power generation status (status), power generation output history, reference destination history, etc. are stored. In addition to this, conditions such as the size, orientation, and inclination of the solar panel may be further associated and stored. On the other hand, in the external factor information storage unit 17, as shown in FIG. 5 (b), the season, the weather, the speed (m / s) of the change (change) of the weather, and the sunrise are associated with the power generation facility ID. / The time of sunset, temperature (° C), and humidity (%) are stored in association with each other.

In such a configuration, the control unit 11 reads out the program of the storage unit 15 and executes it, so that the reception unit 11a, the power generation amount prediction unit 11b, the output unit 11c, the generator information update unit 11d, and the external factor information It functions as an update unit 11e, a display control unit 11f, a generation unit 11g, a transmission unit 11h, and a learning unit 11i.

The receiving unit 11a receives a request for power generation amount prediction including a desired prediction time for one of the plurality of solar power generation systems. This request is sent from, for example, the terminal device 3 of the facilities 100A, 100B ....

The power generation amount prediction unit 11b refers to the storage unit 15, and based on the power generation output of another solar power generation system located west of the one solar power generation system, the future of the one solar power generation system. Predict the amount of power generation. In deciding the reference destination, in addition to the condition that it is located in the west, the picture, the size, orientation, inclination, etc. of the solar panel may be comprehensively considered.

More specifically, the power generation amount prediction unit 11b refers to the generator information storage unit 16 to identify another power generation system located west of one solar power generation system, and one sun. The distance between the two is calculated based on the latitude and longitude of the installation location of the optical power generation system and the latitude and longitude of the installation location of other solar power generation systems. Calculate the time difference based on the speed of And. Then, the output unit 11c outputs the prediction result (predicted value of the power generation amount at the scheduled time) of the power generation amount prediction unit 11b.

The generator information updating unit 11d periodically receives generator information (status, power generation output, etc.) from the photovoltaic power generation systems of each facility 100A, 100B ..., And updates the contents of the generator information storage unit 16. The external factor information updating unit 11e periodically receives external factor information such as weather, weather change speed, temperature, and humidity from an information providing server (not shown), and updates the contents of the external factor information storage unit 17. do. The display control unit 11f controls the display on the display unit 13 based on the output of the output unit 11c. The generation unit 11g generates screen data related to the prediction result in HTML format or the like. The transmission unit 11h transmits the screen data to the terminal device 3 or the like. Then, the learning unit 11i learns a suitable reference destination based on the prediction result and the actual power generation amount, and updates the contents of the reference destination history of the generator information storage unit 16 in order of priority.

FIG. 6 shows and describes the configuration of the terminal device of the power generation amount prediction system.

As shown in the figure, the terminal device 3 installed in each facility 100A, 100B ... Has a control unit 21, a communication unit 22, an operation unit 23, a display unit 24, and a storage unit 25. Each unit 21 to 25 is freely connected via a bus line 26. The communication unit 22 is realized by, for example, a NIC or the like, and is a communication interface that is connected to a communication network 4 such as the Internet by wire or wirelessly and communicates with a power generation amount prediction device 1 or the like.

The operation unit 23 is realized by a mouse, a keyboard, or the like, and receives various operation inputs by the user. The display unit 24 is realized by a liquid crystal display or the like and performs various displays. The operation unit 23 and the display unit 24 may be integrally configured as a touch panel.

The storage unit 25 is realized by, for example, a semiconductor memory element such as a RAM or a flash memory, an HDD, an optical disk device, or the like, and stores a program executed by the control unit 21. The control unit 21 functions as a reception unit 21a, a viewing unit 21b, and a transmission unit 21c by executing a program realized by a CPU, an MPU, or the like and stored in the storage unit 25. The control unit 21 may be composed of an integrated circuit such as an ASIC or FPGA.

In such a configuration, the receiving unit 21a receives the display data and the like related to the prediction result sent from the power generation amount prediction device 1 via the communication unit 22. The viewing unit 21b displays the display data based on the display data on the display unit 24 so that the display unit 21b can view the data. Then, the transmission unit 21c transmits a request or the like related to power generation prediction to the power generation amount prediction device 1 via the communication unit 22.

Hereinafter, the processing procedure by the power generation amount prediction device will be described with reference to the flowchart of FIG. 7.

The receiving unit 11a receives a request for power generation amount prediction including a desired prediction time for one of a plurality of solar power generation systems from the terminal device 3 (S1).

Subsequently, the power generation amount prediction unit 11b refers to the generator information storage unit 16 to identify another photovoltaic power generation system located west of one photovoltaic power generation system (S2). In this specific case, the reference information of the generator information storage unit 16 is referred to, but when the reference power generation facility is before sunrise or after sunset by further referring to the external factor information storage unit 17. May be excluded from the reference destination candidates. In addition to the condition that the solar panel is located in the west, it is of course possible to comprehensively consider the size, orientation, inclination, etc. of the solar panel when determining the reference destination.

Next, the power generation amount prediction unit 11b is located between the two based on the latitude and longitude of the installation location of one solar power generation system to be predicted and the latitude and longitude of the installation location of another solar power generation system to be referenced. The time difference is calculated based on the distance and the speed of change of the weather with reference to the external factor information storage unit 17 (S3).

Then, the power generation amount prediction unit 11b reads out the power generation amount of another photovoltaic power generation system by the time difference before the desired prediction time with reference to the generator information storage unit 16, and the prediction target for which the prediction is requested. Let it be the predicted value of the amount of power generation at the desired time of prediction of one solar power generation system (S4). In this way, the output unit 11c outputs the prediction result (predicted value of the power generation amount at the scheduled time) of the power generation amount prediction unit 11b (S5), and ends the series of processing.

As described above, according to the embodiment of the present invention, it is possible to accurately predict the amount of power generated by the photovoltaic power generation system by paying attention to the fact that the weather changes from day to east. Further, by repeating the learning, the reference destination can be made suitable and the accuracy of prediction can be improved.

Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described above, it goes without saying that the present invention is not limited to this and various improvements and changes can be made without departing from the spirit of the present invention.

For example, the external factor information is not limited to the above-mentioned information, and various information can be reflected in the prediction algorithm.

1 ... Power generation amount prediction device, 2 ... Solar power generation system, 2a ... Generator, 2b ... Management device, 3 ... Terminal device, 4 ... Communication network, 11 ... Control unit, 11a ... Receiver unit, 11b ... Power generation amount prediction unit , 11c ... Output unit, 11d ... Generator information update unit, 11e ... External factor information update unit, 11f ... Display control unit, 11g ... Generation unit, 11h ... Transmission unit, 11i ... Learning unit, 12 ... Communication unit, 13 ... Display unit, 14 ... Operation unit, 15 ... Storage unit, 16 ... Power generation facility information storage unit, 17 ... External factor information storage unit, 18 ... Bus line, 21 ... Control unit, 21a ... Reception unit, 21b ... Reading unit , 21c ... Transmission unit, 22 ... Communication unit, 23 ... Operation unit, 24 ... Display unit, 25 ... Storage unit.

Claims (3)

It is a power generation amount prediction device that can freely communicate with the solar power generation system installed in various places.
A receiving unit that receives a request for power generation amount prediction including a desired prediction time for one of the plurality of solar power generation systems, and a receiving unit.
Identify the other PV system located west of the one PV system, and the latitude and longitude of the installation location of the PV system and the installation location of the other PV system. The distance between the two is calculated based on the latitude and longitude, the time difference is calculated based on the distance and the speed of change of the weather, and the power generation of the other photovoltaic power generation system before the predicted desired time by the time difference. With reference to the amount, the power generation amount prediction unit which is the predicted value of the power generation amount at the predicted desired time of the above-mentioned one photovoltaic power generation system, and
A power generation amount prediction device including an output unit that outputs the predicted value of the power generation amount prediction unit. It is a power generation amount prediction system consisting of multiple solar power generation systems installed in various places, terminal devices related to each solar power generation system, and power generation amount prediction device.
The terminal device is
A first transmission unit that makes a request for power generation amount prediction to the power generation amount prediction device, and
A first receiving unit that receives the prediction result from the power generation amount prediction device, and
A display unit for displaying the prediction result is provided.
The power generation amount prediction device is
A second receiving unit that receives a request for power generation amount prediction including a desired predicted time from a terminal device related to one of the plurality of solar power generation systems.
Identify the other PV system located west of the one PV system, and the latitude and longitude of the installation location of the PV system and the installation location of the other PV system. The distance between the two is calculated based on the latitude and longitude, the time difference is calculated based on the distance and the speed of change of the weather, and the power generation of the other photovoltaic power generation system before the predicted desired time by the time difference. With reference to the amount, the power generation amount prediction unit which is the predicted value of the power generation amount at the predicted desired time of the above-mentioned one photovoltaic power generation system, and
A power generation amount prediction system including a second transmission unit for transmitting the predicted value of the power generation amount prediction unit. It is a power generation amount prediction method by a power generation amount prediction system consisting of multiple solar power generation systems installed in various places, terminal devices related to each solar power generation system, and a power generation amount prediction device.
In the terminal device,
The first transmission unit makes a request for power generation amount prediction to the power generation amount prediction device, and makes a request for power generation amount prediction.
The first receiving unit receives the prediction result from the power generation amount prediction device, and receives the prediction result.
The display unit displays the prediction result,
In the power generation amount prediction device,
The second receiving unit receives a request for power generation amount prediction including a desired predicted time from a terminal device related to one of the plurality of solar power generation systems, and receives a request.
The power generation amount prediction unit identifies another solar power generation system located west of the one solar power generation system, and the latitude and longitude of the installation location of the one solar power generation system and the other solar power. The distance between the two is calculated based on the latitude and longitude of the installation location of the power generation system, the time difference is calculated based on the distance and the speed of change of the weather, and the other other time difference before the predicted desired time is calculated. Refer to the amount of power generated by the solar power generation system, and use it as the predicted value of the amount of power generated at the desired time of prediction of the above-mentioned one solar power generation system.
A power generation amount prediction method in which the second transmission unit transmits the predicted value of the power generation amount prediction unit.

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