JP7029280B2 - Pulp manufacturing profit / loss estimation system and pulp manufacturing profit / loss estimation method - Google Patents

Description

The present disclosure relates to optimization of pulp production, and particularly to selection of raw materials used for pulp production.

Pulp used for papermaking such as paper and paperboard is a fiber containing cellulose as a main component, and is wood pulp obtained from coniferous trees and broadleaf trees, non-wood pulp obtained from non-wood such as straw, flax, and cotton, and used paper. Manufactured from pulp and the like. For example, wood pulp and non-wood pulp are boiled by adding chemicals and steam to the raw material in a cooking pot, removing lignin in the raw material, taking out the fiber (after cooking), and then cleaning the taken out fiber. Manufactured. In such a pulping step, a waste liquid containing lignin as a main component called black liquor is obtained as a by-product, but the concentrated black liquor is a facility for recovering the above chemicals from the black liquor by generating steam and burning. It is used as fuel for the recovery boiler. In addition, the steam generated in the recovery boiler is used as power generation for electricity used in the paper mill as power for the turbine, and as process steam used in processes such as heating or reaction such as the above-mentioned cooking.

Then, for example, Patent Document 1 discloses that the electric power generated by the black liquor renewable energy is sold and used outside the paper mill. More specifically, a cogeneration facility in a paper factory equipped with a generator driven by a prime mover such as a gas turbine or a diesel engine and an exhaust heat recovery boiler generates electricity using natural gas as a fuel source and exhaust heat thereof. Power is generated by a steam turbine using high-temperature and high-pressure steam. In addition, steam (process steam) with the required pressure is extracted from the middle stage of this steam turbine and used in the production process in the paper mill. This supplies electricity and steam for use in the paper mill. On the other hand, the electricity generated by the steam generated by the black liquor recovery boiler that uses black liquor as the fuel source increases the output of the black liquor recovery boiler during the day and decreases it at night, resulting in a higher selling price. In the daytime, electricity is sold via the transmission system of electric power companies. As a result, power can be sold during times when power demand is high, and fluctuations in the amount of power supplied to the outside can be reduced, so that the selling price can be raised and the economic effect can be enhanced.

Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2006-16985

As described above, in the pulping process, pulp sold as paper, paperboard, or the like and black liquor capable of generating electric power that can be sold are produced. For example, as the amount of pulp produced increases, the amount of black liquor produced (recovered amount) also increases, but the ratio of fiber content and lignin content recovered from a predetermined unit (for example, unit weight) of raw material is higher in hardwood than in hardwood. It depends on the type of raw material, such as the amount of lignin remaining in the black liquor recovered through the cooking process. In other words, the unit amount of pulp and black liquor that can be produced from a predetermined unit of raw material differs depending on the type of raw material, and if a raw material with a high fiber content (high ratio) is used, the amount of pulp produced will increase accordingly. There is a negative correlation such as a decrease in the amount of black liquor produced. In recent years, there is a feed-in tariff (FIT) that obliges the purchase of electricity generated by renewable energy at a fixed price for a certain period of time, and the utilization of renewable energy is being supported.

Under these circumstances, the present inventors are based on the sales profit / loss (profit) of electricity and the like obtained when black liquor, which is a renewable energy, is used as fuel, and the sales profit and loss of pulp through papermaking and the like. I thought that if I chose a pulp raw material that would give me better profit and loss, I could optimize my business by maximizing profits.

In view of the above circumstances, at least one embodiment of the present invention enables selection of the optimum raw material type through a trial calculation based on the raw material type of profit and loss based on each of the pulp and black liquor obtained in pulp production. The purpose is to provide a manufacturing profit and loss estimation system.

(1) The pulp production profit / loss estimation system according to at least one embodiment of the present invention is
It is a pulp production profit / loss estimation system that calculates the pulp profit / loss obtained through pulp production and the black liquor profit / loss obtained through the production of black liquor produced by the pulp production.
A pulp production schedule determination unit that determines the pulp production schedule amount, which is the planned pulp production amount, and the pulp production schedule determination unit.
A target raw material selection unit that selects a target raw material as a raw material for pulp from at least one target raw material candidate, and a target raw material selection unit.
A raw material usage amount calculation unit for calculating the raw material usage amount of the target raw material required for producing the pulp production planned amount, and a raw material usage amount calculation unit.
A black liquor production planned amount calculation unit that calculates the black liquor production planned amount of the black liquor obtained from the raw material usage amount, and
A total steam planned amount calculation unit that calculates the total steam planned amount of steam obtained from the black liquor planned production amount by the recovery boiler using the black liquor as fuel, and
The black liquor profit / loss calculation unit that calculates the black liquor profit / loss based on the total steam planned amount,
A pulp profit / loss calculation unit for calculating the pulp profit / loss based on the planned pulp production amount is provided.

According to the configuration of (1) above, the planned amount of black liquor is calculated based on the amount of raw material used to produce pulp for the planned amount of pulp production with the selected target raw material, and the black liquor is produced. By calculating the total amount of steam generated in the recovery boiler that uses black liquor as fuel based on the planned amount, the profit and loss (pulp profit and loss) when the pulp for the planned pulp production amount is sold as a paper product, etc., and , The profit and loss (black liquor profit and loss) when the black liquor for the planned production amount is used as fuel and the steam generated by the recovery boiler is converted into electricity and sold is calculated. As a result, it is possible to obtain the trial calculation results of the pulp profit / loss and the black liquor profit / loss when the target raw material is used. In addition, the amount of raw material used and the amount of black liquor recovered to produce pulp for the planned amount of pulp production differ depending on the type of raw material, so calculate the estimation results for pulp profit and loss and black liquor profit and loss respectively. As a result, the raw material type can be determined based on the trial calculation result, and the business can be optimized by selecting the raw material type that can maximize the business profit / loss based on the trial calculation result.

(2) In some embodiments, in the configuration of (1) above,
Further, a target raw material information acquisition unit for acquiring raw material information of the target raw material including the pulp unit production amount of the pulp produced from the predetermined unit of the target raw material and the black liquor unit production amount of the black liquor is further provided.
The raw material usage amount calculation unit calculates the raw material usage amount based on the pulp production planned amount and the pulp unit production amount for the target raw material.
The black liquor production planned amount calculation unit calculates the black liquor production planned amount based on the raw material usage amount and the black liquor unit production amount for the target raw material.

According to the configuration of (2) above, the amount of the target raw material used (raw material usage amount) is calculated based on the unit production amount of pulp for the target raw material, and is obtained from the amount of the raw material used and the predetermined unit of the target raw material. From the unit production amount of the black liquor to be produced, the planned production amount of the black liquor obtained when pulp is produced from the target raw material is calculated. As a result, it is possible to appropriately calculate the amount of raw material used and the planned amount of black liquor to be produced in order to produce pulp for the planned amount of pulp with the selected target raw material.

(3) In some embodiments, in the above configurations (1) and (2),
The at least one target raw material candidate includes a plurality of target raw material candidates.
The total profit / loss calculation unit that calculates the total profit / loss of the pulp profit / loss and the black liquor profit / loss,
A raw material specifying unit for specifying the target raw material having the highest total profit / loss among the plurality of total profits / losses calculated for each of the plurality of target raw material candidates as the target raw materials is further provided.
According to the configuration of (3) above, the raw material having the maximum total profit / loss of pulp profit / loss and black liquor profit / loss is specified from among a plurality of target raw material candidates. This makes it easier to identify raw materials that can optimize the business from the perspective of total profit and loss.

(4) In some embodiments, in the configurations (1) to (3) above,
The pulp production planned amount determination unit is
The paper production amount calculation unit that calculates the paper production amount based on the paper demand amount,
It has a pulp amount calculation unit for calculating the planned pulp production amount based on the paper production amount.
According to the configuration of (4) above, the planned pulp production amount is determined based on the paper production amount calculated based on the paper demand amount. By determining the planned pulp production volume based on the paper demand, the business can be optimized more accurately.

(5) In some embodiments, in the configuration of (4) above,
The pulp production planned amount determination unit further has a recycled paper amount calculation unit for calculating the recycled paper amount covered by the recycled paper among the paper production amounts.
The paper production amount calculation unit calculates the paper production amount based on the paper demand amount and the recycled paper amount.
According to the configuration of (5) above, the paper production amount is calculated based on the paper demand amount and the recycled paper amount. Currently, the pulp required to meet the demand for paper includes used paper pulp produced from recycled paper, but black liquor is not recovered in the process of producing recycled paper pulp. Therefore, by considering the amount of recycled paper when calculating the amount of paper produced, it is assumed that the planned amount of pulp produced based on the amount of paper produced does not include used paper pulp. As a result, the amount of raw material used for the target raw material can be calculated more accurately, so that the planned amount of black liquor can be calculated more accurately. Therefore, the pulp profit / loss and the black liquor profit / loss can be calculated more accurately.

(6) In some embodiments, in the configurations (4) to (5) above,
The pulp production planned amount determination unit further has an inventory amount acquisition unit for acquiring the inventory amount of the pulp.
The pulp amount calculation unit calculates the planned pulp production amount based on the paper production amount and the pulp inventory amount.
According to the configuration of (6) above, the planned pulp production amount is calculated by subtracting the pulp inventory amount. Since black liquor is not produced from the pulp that has already been produced, the planned pulp production amount is calculated by subtracting the pulp inventory amount from the pulp production amount obtained from the paper production amount. As a result, the amount of raw material used for the target raw material, which is calculated based on the planned amount of pulp production, can be calculated more accurately, so that the amount of black liquor to be produced can be calculated more accurately. Therefore, the pulp profit / loss and the black liquor profit / loss can be calculated more accurately.

(7) The pulp production profit / loss estimation method according to at least one embodiment of the present invention is
It is a pulp production profit / loss estimation method for calculating the pulp profit / loss obtained through the pulp production and the black liquor profit / loss obtained through the production of the black liquor produced by the pulp production.
The pulp production planned amount determination step that determines the pulp production planned amount, which is the planned pulp production amount, and the pulp production planned amount determination step.
A target raw material selection step of selecting a target raw material to be a raw material of the pulp from at least one target raw material candidate,
A raw material usage calculation step for calculating the raw material usage amount of the target raw material required for producing the pulp production planned amount, and a raw material usage calculation step.
A black liquor production planned amount calculation step for calculating the black liquor production planned amount of the black liquor obtained from the raw material usage amount, and
A total steam planned amount calculation step for calculating the total steam planned amount of steam obtained from the black liquor planned production amount by the recovery boiler using the black liquor as fuel, and
The black liquor profit / loss calculation step for calculating the black liquor profit / loss based on the total steam planned amount, and
A pulp profit / loss calculation step for calculating the pulp profit / loss based on the planned pulp production amount is provided.

According to the configuration of the above (7), the same effect as the above (1) is obtained.

(8) In some embodiments, in the configuration of (7) above,
Further provided with a target raw material information acquisition step for acquiring raw material information of the target raw material including the pulp unit production amount of the pulp produced from the predetermined unit of the target raw material and the black liquor unit production amount of the black liquor.
The raw material usage calculation step calculates the raw material usage amount based on the pulp production planned amount and the pulp unit production amount for the target raw material.
The black liquor production planned amount calculation step calculates the black liquor production planned amount based on the raw material usage amount and the black liquor unit production amount for the target raw material.
According to the configuration of the above (8), the same effect as the above (2) is obtained.

(9) In some embodiments, in the configurations (7) to (8) above,
The at least one target raw material candidate includes a plurality of target raw material candidates.
A total profit / loss calculation step for calculating the total profit / loss of the pulp profit / loss and the black liquor profit / loss,
Further, a raw material specifying step for specifying the raw material in the plurality of target raw material candidates having the highest total profit / loss among the plurality of total profits / losses calculated for each of the plurality of target raw material candidates as the target raw material. Be prepared.
According to the configuration of the above (9), the same effect as the above (3) is obtained.

(10) In some embodiments, in the configurations (7) to (9) above,
The step of determining the planned pulp production amount is
A paper production amount calculation step that calculates the paper production amount based on the paper demand amount, and
It has a pulp amount calculation step for calculating the pulp production planned amount based on the paper production amount.
According to the configuration of the above (10), the same effect as the above (4) is obtained.

(11) In some embodiments, in the configuration of (10) above,
The pulp production planned amount determination step further includes a recycled paper amount calculation step for calculating the recycled paper amount covered by the recycled paper among the paper production amounts.
The paper production amount calculation step calculates the paper production amount based on the paper demand amount and the recycled paper amount.
According to the configuration of the above (11), the same effect as the above (5) is obtained.

(12) In some embodiments, in the configurations (10) to (11) above,
The pulp production planned amount determination step further includes an inventory amount acquisition step for acquiring the inventory amount of the pulp.
In the pulp amount calculation step, the planned pulp production amount is calculated based on the paper production amount and the pulp inventory amount.
According to the configuration of the above (12), the same effect as the above (6) is obtained.

According to at least one embodiment of the present invention, there is a pulp production profit / loss estimation system that enables selection of the optimum raw material type through trial calculation based on the raw material type of profit / loss based on each of the pulp and black liquor obtained in pulp production. Provided.

It is a functional block diagram which shows the structure of the pulp manufacturing profit and loss calculation system which concerns on one Embodiment of this invention. It is a flow figure for demonstrating the manufacturing process of pulp and black liquor which concerns on one Embodiment of this invention. It is a flow chart which shows the pulp manufacturing profit and loss estimation method which concerns on one Embodiment of this invention.

Hereinafter, some embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the accompanying drawings. However, the dimensions, materials, shapes, relative arrangements, etc. of the components described as embodiments or shown in the drawings are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention to this, but are merely explanatory examples. do not have.
For example, expressions that represent relative or absolute arrangements such as "in one direction", "along a certain direction", "parallel", "orthogonal", "center", "concentric" or "coaxial" are exact. Not only does it represent such an arrangement, but it also represents a tolerance or a state of relative displacement at an angle or distance to the extent that the same function can be obtained.
For example, expressions such as "same", "equal", and "homogeneous" that indicate that things are in the same state not only represent exactly the same state, but also have tolerances or differences to the extent that the same function can be obtained. It shall also represent the existing state.
For example, the expression representing a shape such as a quadrangular shape or a cylindrical shape not only represents a shape such as a quadrangular shape or a cylindrical shape in a geometrically strict sense, but also an uneven portion or a chamfer within the range where the same effect can be obtained. It shall also represent the shape including the part and the like.
On the other hand, the expressions "equipped", "equipped", "equipped", "included", or "have" one component are not exclusive expressions excluding the existence of other components.

FIG. 1 is a functional block diagram showing a configuration of a pulp manufacturing profit / loss estimation system 1 according to an embodiment of the present invention. Further, FIG. 2 is a flow chart for explaining a process for producing pulp and black liquor according to an embodiment of the present invention.

The pulp production profit / loss estimation system 1 is a pulp profit / loss (described later) obtained through pulp production as shown in FIG. 2, and a black liquor obtained through production (recovery) of black liquor produced by the pulp production process P (process). It is a system (device) that estimates profit and loss (described later). Explaining the pulp manufacturing process P (chemical pulping process), as shown in FIG. 2, first, raw materials such as wood pulp are steamed by adding chemicals and steam, and fiber components containing cellulose as a main component, lignin, etc. The raw material is separated into the components of the other raw materials (melting process). Next, the fiber content of the raw material obtained by cooking is washed, and lignin, foreign substances, etc. are washed away (washing step). After that, pulp is produced by performing a process such as bleaching the fiber content of the raw material. Further, in the above-mentioned washing step, as a by-product of pulp production, a black liquor (black liquor) containing raw material components other than fiber such as lignin and chemicals at the time of cooking can be obtained. Then, the black liquor can be used as a fuel for the recovery boiler by concentrating it with an evaporator.

This recovery boiler is a facility that generates steam through the combustion of black liquor, and rotates the turbine by sending the generated steam to the turbine. The steam after rotating the turbine is sent to the above-mentioned cooking process or another process (process), and is used as process steam for heating or reaction. Then, power is generated by using a generator by the rotation of the turbine by steam, and it is used for the electric power demand in the factory and the electric power demand outside the factory. The recovery boiler is also a facility for recovering the chemicals used in the cooking process from the black liquor, and recovers the inorganic substances contained in the ash remaining after the black liquor is burned. The inorganic substances recovered by the recovery boiler are recycled into chemicals and then used again for cooking.

Then, as shown in FIG. 1, the pulp production profit / loss estimation system 1 described above includes a pulp production planned amount determination unit 2, a target raw material selection unit 31, a raw material usage amount calculation unit 33, and a black liquor production planned amount calculation unit. 4, a total steam planned amount calculation unit 5, and a profit / loss calculation unit 6 including a black liquor profit / loss calculation unit 61 and a pulp profit / loss calculation unit 62 are provided. As shown in FIG. 1, the pulp production profit / loss estimation system 1 may further include a target raw material information acquisition unit 32. The pulp manufacturing profit / loss estimation system 1 is composed of a computer, and includes a CPU (processor) (not shown) and a memory (storage device) such as a ROM or RAM. Then, the CPU operates (data calculation, etc.) according to the instructions of the program (pulp manufacturing profit / loss calculation program) loaded in the main storage device to calculate the pulp profit / loss (described later) and the black liquid profit / loss (described later), respectively. The result is output on a screen or paper by a display device (a device having a display, a printer, an audio output device, etc.).
Hereinafter, the above-mentioned functional parts included in the pulp manufacturing profit / loss calculation system 1 will be described with reference to FIG.

The planned pulp production amount determination unit 2 determines the planned pulp production amount Qp, which is the planned amount of pulp to be produced. The planned pulp production amount Qp may be the planned production amount of pulp produced in one factory (for example, a paper mill; the same applies hereinafter). Alternatively, if one operator owns multiple factories, or if the total planned production amount by the factories owned by each of the multiple operators is considered, the planned production amount of pulp produced in multiple factories. It may be. Further, the planned pulp production amount Qp may be arbitrarily determined, for example, it may be determined based on an index such as the production capacity of the factory, or it may be determined based on the paper demand D as described later. Is also good.

The target raw material selection unit 31 selects a target raw material as a raw material for pulp used for trial calculation of pulp profit / loss (described later) and black liquor profit / loss (described later) from at least one target raw material candidate. That is, a specific raw material (target raw material) used for producing the pulp for the above-mentioned planned pulp production amount Qp is selected from one or more target raw material candidates. The target raw material selection unit 31 selects a raw material input by the user from a list of target raw material candidates stored in advance in a memory or the like by the system, or by directly inputting information for identifying the raw material by the user. It may be selected as a target raw material to be used. Alternatively, the target raw material selection unit 31 may select (acquire) the target raw material by receiving input from a list of one or more target raw material candidates and sequentially selecting the raw materials in the list.

In addition, the above-mentioned target raw material candidates include raw materials that can recover black liquor containing lignin and the like. Therefore, the target raw material candidates include wood such as softwood and hardwood, and raw materials classified as non-wood such as straw, flax, and cotton, but waste paper is excluded. Each raw material included in the target raw material candidate may be specified in a unit capable of individually identifying tree species such as red pine and black pine and non-wood types, and conifers and broad-leaved trees including a plurality of tree species, respectively. , Straw, flax, non-wood including cotton, etc., may be specified in group units, or may be a combination thereof.

The raw material usage amount calculation unit 33 calculates the raw material usage amount Qr of the target raw material required for producing the pulp production planned amount Qp. For example, in some embodiments, the raw material usage amount calculation unit 33 may be configured to calculate the raw material usage amount Qr by using the raw material information B which is an information set regarding the raw material for each raw material. Specifically, as shown in FIG. 1, the pulp production profit / loss estimation system 1 is a pulp produced from a predetermined unit such as a unit weight (kg, etc.) of the target raw material selected by the target raw material selection unit 31. Further, the target raw material information acquisition unit 32 for acquiring the raw material information B of the target raw material including the unit production amount (hereinafter, pulp unit production amount Bp) and the black liquid unit production amount (hereinafter, black liquid unit production amount Bf) is further provided. .. The size of the predetermined unit described above is arbitrary, and in the case of weight, for example, the unit weight may be 1 kg, 1 t, or the like, or 2 kg, 10 kg, or the like may be the predetermined unit.

Then, the raw material usage amount calculation unit 33 calculates the raw material usage amount Qr based on the pulp production planned amount Qp and the pulp unit production amount Bp for the target raw material. That is, since the pulp unit production amount Bp is the pulp production amount per unit raw material amount, it is possible to calculate the raw material usage amount Qr of the target raw material by multiplying the pulp unit production amount Bp by the pulp production planned amount Qp. There is (Qr = Qp × Bp). In the embodiment shown in FIG. 1, the pulp production profit / loss estimation system 1 includes a raw material information database 81 that stores raw material information B for each raw material. Then, the target raw material information acquisition unit 32 searches the raw material information database 81 with the target raw material selected by the target raw material selection unit 31 described above, and thereby, the unit production amount of each of the above-mentioned pulp and black liquor relating to the target raw material. To get.

In some embodiments, this raw material information B can affect the pulp unit production amount Bp, the black liquor unit production amount Bf, the calorific value of the black liquor, etc., such as the type of the raw material, the production area of the raw material, and the cooking conditions. At least one piece of information having a property may be further included as raw material classification information. The above types of raw materials may indicate whether the raw material is wood or non-wood, and further, when the raw material is wood, what is the tree species, and when the raw material is non-wood. May also indicate whether it is straw, flax, or cotton. In this embodiment, the raw material information database 81 manages a table (raw material table) for storing raw material information B including raw material classification information. Further, in the raw material table, for raw materials that match the above raw material classification information, the pulp unit production amount Bp and the black liquor unit production amount Bf are examined at different times, so that a plurality of records in which the raw material classification information matches are obtained. May be remembered. In this case, if the raw material information database 81 is searched using the raw material classification information of the target raw material as the search condition, a plurality of records will be acquired.

Therefore, in some embodiments, the raw material usage amount calculation unit 33 has the respective average values and modes for the plurality of pulp unit production amounts Bp and the plurality of black liquor unit production amounts Bf acquired from the raw material information database 81. The raw material usage amount Qr may be calculated based on statistical values such as values. In some other embodiments, the raw material usage amount calculation unit 33 obtains the similarity between the raw material classification information of the target raw material and the raw material classification information of a plurality of records managed in the raw material table, for example, the similarity is high. One or more records may be acquired based on the obtained similarity, such as acquiring records. When a plurality of records are acquired, the raw material usage amount Qr may be calculated based on the statistical value in the same manner as described above. More specifically, we apply known methods that can determine the degree of similarity, such as matching by dynamic programming, or perform machine learning using various information included in the raw material classification information as parameters to compare with the comparison target. The information having the highest degree of similarity may be determined as a match through the determination of the match, and the information for which the match has been determined may be acquired. In machine learning, various information of the raw material classification information managed in the raw material table may be used as teacher data for training to judge a match in advance and completed as a judgment model, or while actually repeating the match judgment. , You may train the model. As a result, information having a high degree of similarity can be obtained from the raw material information database 81.

In the raw material table, instead of the pulp unit production amount Bp and the black liquor unit production amount Bf, these values are calculated, for example, the raw material usage amount and the pulp production amount produced from the raw material usage amount. And the information field for storing the black liquor production amount may be managed. Further, the present invention is not limited to the present embodiment, and the raw material usage amount Qr may be calculated by another method using the pulp unit production amount Bp and the black liquor unit production amount Bf.

The black liquor production planned amount calculation unit 4 calculates the black liquor black liquor production planned amount Qf obtained from the raw material usage amount Qr calculated by the raw material usage amount calculation unit 33 described above. For example, as described above, when the pulp production profit / loss estimation system 1 includes the target raw material information acquisition unit 32, the black liquor production planned amount calculation unit 4 sets the black liquor production planned amount Qf and the raw material usage amount Qr. And may be configured to be calculated based on the black liquor unit production amount Bf for the target raw material. Specifically, since the black liquor unit production amount Bf is the production amount of black liquor per unit raw material amount, the black liquor production planned amount Qf can be obtained by multiplying the black liquor unit production amount Bf by the raw material usage amount Qr. Calculation is possible (Qf = Qr × Bf).

The total steam planned amount calculation unit 5 calculates the total amount of steam (hereinafter, total steam planned amount Qs) obtained from the black liquor planned production amount Qf by the above-mentioned recovery boiler using black liquor as fuel. The calorific value per unit weight of black liquor (for example, MJ / kg) varies depending on the type of raw material such as tree species, wood, and non-wood and the conditions for steaming. In consideration, the total planned steam amount Qs obtained from the planned black liquor production amount Qf is calculated. In the embodiment shown in FIG. 1, the equipment information of the recovery boiler is stored in the equipment information database 82 for each factory.

The profit / loss calculation unit 6 calculates the black liquor profit / loss and the pulp profit / loss, respectively. More specifically, the profit / loss calculation unit 6 calculates the pulp profit / loss based on the black liquor profit / loss calculation unit 61 that calculates the black liquor profit / loss based on the above-mentioned total planned steam amount Qs and the pulp production planned amount Qp described above. The pulp profit / loss calculation unit 62 and the like are included. Pulp profit / loss is generated from manufactured pulp, for example, by subtracting the manufacturing cost from the sales obtained by selling the pulp itself or pulp products such as paper and paperboard manufactured from pulp. It is a profit or loss (profit) obtained through the value (added value) that can be sold to the outside. More specifically, the pulp profit / loss may be the gross profit obtained by subtracting the cost of sales from the sales of the pulp product, or the operating profit obtained by subtracting the sales administration cost from this gross profit. Is also good.

Similarly, the profit / loss of black liquor is calculated by subtracting the manufacturing cost from the sales of electricity obtained by using black liquor as fuel as described above, and the value that can be sold to the outside generated from the manufactured black liquor ( It is the profit and loss (profit) obtained through (added value). The steam generated by burning the black liquor in the recovery boiler can be used for power generation and process steam, but sales profit can be obtained by selling the electricity generated in this way outside the factory. In some cases, the steam may be sold to the outside as it is, and in that case, the sales profit includes the sales profit of the steam. On the contrary, when the generated electricity or process steam is used in the factory, the sales profit cannot be obtained by that amount, but the electricity purchased from other electric power companies can be reduced by that amount. It becomes possible to reduce the cost. That is, the added value generated from the black liquor changes the profit and loss of the black liquor according to the usage mode. In the embodiment shown in FIG. 1, when calculating the black liquor profit / loss, among the steam and electricity obtained by burning the black liquor in the recovery boiler, the steam and electricity used in the factory reduce the manufacturing cost. The amount of power generated by other power generation facilities outside or inside the factory can be considered as a factor, as a manufacturing cost, and as a factor that increases the amount of added value generated from black liquor in profit and loss calculation. It has become.

As described above, the manufactured pulp and the black liquor are manufactured through the pulp manufacturing step P, and the black liquor in particular can be either a means for reducing the manufacturing cost or a means for obtaining a sales profit. Further, when the calorific value per unit weight of the black liquor changes depending on what the raw material is, the production amount of pulp produced from the same amount of raw material used and the production amount of black liquor also change. In addition, procurement costs, including raw material prices and transportation costs, and the unit price of electricity sold, which is determined by supply and demand unless under the FIT system, can change daily. In other words, the raw materials used that are determined to be the most appropriate may not be optimal from the viewpoint of business profit and loss in response to changes in the business environment. Then, in order to increase business profit and loss, such as maximizing profit and loss at the factory, it is necessary to prioritize the production of pulp or black liquor, and how to use the value (added value) generated by black liquor. Is difficult.

Under these circumstances, the present inventors are based on the sales profit / loss (profit) of electricity and the like obtained when black liquor, which is a renewable energy, is used as fuel, and the sales profit and loss of pulp through papermaking and the like. I thought that if you select a pulp raw material that will give you better profit and loss, you can optimize your business according to the business environment, such as maximizing profits. For example, if the sales profit of the electric power generated by using the black liquor is high, it is better to use the raw material that can recover more black liquor than to reduce the pulp production cost. It is conceivable that the total profit / loss with the liquid profit / loss will be higher and the business profit / loss will be higher. At this time, it is conceivable that the total profit and loss may be higher if the electricity used in the factory is intentionally purchased from the outside and the electricity based on the black liquor is sold. On the contrary, even if the demand for paper etc. is high and the amount of black liquor recovered and the amount of heat generated are reduced, the total profit / loss may be higher by using raw materials that can produce pulp at a lower cost. Conceivable.

Therefore, by calculating the black liquor profit / loss and pulp profit / loss when the selected target raw material is used, the raw material used (target raw material) can be compared with the trial calculation results of different target raw materials and the target profit / loss. You can easily choose whether to do it. Further, for example, by making a trial calculation and comparing each of a plurality of raw materials as target raw materials, it is possible to know the raw materials suitable for maximizing the total profit / loss. In addition, if the electricity and steam demand in the factory and the planned pulp production amount Qp are calculated as variables, optimization that takes into account the conditions corresponding to the variables becomes possible.

According to the above configuration, the black liquor production planned amount Qf is calculated based on the raw material usage amount Qr required to produce pulp for the pulp production planned amount Qp with the selected target raw material, and the black liquor production planned amount is calculated. By calculating the total planned amount of steam Qs generated in the recovery boiler using black liquor as fuel based on Qf, the profit / loss (pulp profit / loss) when the pulp for the planned pulp production amount Qp is sold as a paper product, etc. Then, the profit and loss (black liquor profit and loss) when the black liquor for the planned production amount of black liquor Qp is used as fuel and the steam generated by the recovery boiler is converted into electricity and sold is calculated. As a result, it is possible to obtain the trial calculation results of the pulp profit / loss and the black liquor profit / loss when the target raw material is used. In addition, the amount of raw material used Qr required to produce pulp for the planned pulp production amount Qp and the amount of black liquor recovered differ depending on the type of raw material. By doing so, it becomes possible to determine the raw material type based on the trial calculation result, and it is possible to optimize the business by selecting the raw material type that can maximize the business profit / loss based on the trial calculation result.

In some embodiments, when the above-mentioned target raw material candidate includes a plurality of target raw material candidates, as shown in FIG. 1, the pulp production profit / loss estimation system 1 is the sum of the above-mentioned pulp profit / loss and black liquid profit / loss. Total profit / loss calculation unit 63 for calculating profit / loss, and raw material identification unit 7 for specifying the target raw material (raw material) having the highest total profit / loss among a plurality of total profits / losses calculated for each of a plurality of target raw material candidates. And further prepare. That is, the pulp manufacturing profit / loss estimation system 1 calculates the total profit / loss for each of the plurality of target raw materials, and selects the target raw material having the largest total profit / loss. The raw materials identified in this way are displayed together with the top N raw materials (1 ≤ N ≤ the total number of target raw material candidates) in a state where the user can grasp which of the plurality of raw materials is the raw material that maximizes the total profit / loss. It may be displayed by the display device, or may be displayed by the display device alone.

According to the above configuration, the raw material having the maximum total profit / loss of pulp profit / loss and black liquor profit / loss is specified from among a plurality of target raw material candidates. This makes it easier to identify raw materials that can optimize the business from the perspective of total profit and loss.

In some embodiments, as shown in FIG. 1, the pulp production planned amount determination unit 2 described above includes a paper production amount calculation unit 21 that calculates a paper production amount M based on a paper demand amount D, and a paper production amount. It has a pulp amount calculation unit 22 for calculating a planned pulp production amount Qp based on the paper production amount M calculated by the calculation unit 21. The above-mentioned paper demand amount D in the present embodiment is the demand amount of the entire market of paper products including at least one of paper and paperboard. Further, the paper production amount M is, for example, an amount or weight of paper products manufactured in one or more target factories (target factories).

For example, in calculating the paper production amount M based on the paper demand amount D, as shown in FIG. 1, the amount or ratio of recycled paper (hereinafter referred to as recycled paper amount Dr), or one or more of the target factories owned. Market occupancy rate (market share Dm), paper product inventory (hereinafter, paper inventory Ds), paper product export, import volume or ratio (hereinafter, paper export volume De, paper import volume Di) ), The paper production amount M may be smaller than the paper demand amount D. For example, when recycled paper is used for paper demand D, used paper pulp is manufactured, but since black liquor is not collected in the process of manufacturing used paper pulp, the calculation of pulp profit / loss and black liquor profit / loss is performed. Exclude minutes. That is, the amount of recycled paper is a negative factor from the amount of paper demand D. Similarly, the portion of the paper demand amount D exceeding the market share Dm, the paper inventory amount Ds, and the paper import amount Di are considered as negative factors because it is not always necessary to produce pulp by that amount. On the contrary, the paper export amount De is considered as a positive factor because it is necessary to produce pulp by that amount. The market share Dm may be based on past performance or may be a forecast.

More specifically, assuming that the target factory is one or more factories owned by one business operator, for example, the above-mentioned various elements (recycled paper amount Dr, paper stock amount Ds, paper import amount Di and paper) are taken. The export volume De) is all owned by the company, and is based on the amount obtained by multiplying the paper demand D by the market share Dm of the business operator (own company) (the demand amount covered by the company's products), and other various factors as described above. The paper production amount M may be calculated by subtracting the factors to be considered in (in-house). Alternatively, for example, assuming that the market share Dm and the paper inventory amount Ds are for the company and other various elements are for the entire market, various elements (same as above) excluding the company's paper inventory amount Ds are deducted from the paper demand amount D. You may obtain it by multiplying your company's market share Dm and subtracting your company's paper inventory Ds from it.

In the embodiment shown in FIG. 1, the paper production amount calculation unit 21 considers the recycled paper amount Dr in calculating the paper production amount M based on the paper demand amount D. Therefore, as shown in FIG. 1, the pulp production profit / loss estimation system 1 further includes a recycled paper amount calculation unit 23 for calculating the recycled paper amount Dr covered by the recycled paper in the paper production amount M. Then, the paper production amount calculation unit 21 calculates the paper production amount M based on the paper demand amount D and the recycled paper amount Dr (see below). As described above, by considering the recycled paper amount Dr in the calculation of the paper production amount M, it is assumed that the planned pulp production amount Qp calculated based on the paper production amount M does not include the used paper pulp. As a result, the raw material usage amount Qr of the target raw material can be calculated more accurately, so that the planned black liquor production amount Qf can be calculated more accurately. Therefore, it becomes possible to calculate the pulp profit / loss and the black liquor profit / loss more accurately.

Further, in the embodiment shown in FIG. 1, the paper production amount calculation unit 21 considers the market share Dm, the paper inventory amount Ds, the paper export amount De, and the paper import amount Di in addition to the recycled paper amount Dr. There is. Specifically, assuming that the recycled paper amount Dr is the recycled paper ratio (recycled paper ratio) in the paper demand amount D, and the paper inventory amount Ds, the paper import amount Di, and the paper export amount De are the respective quantities, the paper production amount calculation unit. 21 takes the above-mentioned various factors as its own, and sets the paper production amount M as paper demand amount D x market share Dm x {1-recycled paper ratio (Dr)} -paper inventory amount Ds-paper import amount Di + paper export. Calculated by the quantity De. The market share Dm, the paper inventory Ds is the company's own, and other various factors are the market as a whole, and the paper production volume M is [paper demand D x {1-recycled paper ratio (Dr)}-paper import volume Di + paper. Export volume De] x market share Dm-paper inventory volume Ds may be calculated.

Alternatively, the recycled paper amount Dr may be the ratio of the recycled paper to the paper production amount M. In this case, the paper production amount calculation unit 21 takes the above-mentioned various elements as its own and sets the paper production amount M. , (Paper demand D x market share Dm-paper inventory Ds-paper import volume Di + paper export volume De) x {1-recycled paper ratio (Dr)}. The market share Dm, the paper inventory Ds is the company's own, and other various factors are the market as a whole, and the paper production volume M is {(paper demand D-paper import volume Di + paper export volume De) x market share Dm-paper. It may be calculated by the stock amount Ds} × {1-recycled paper ratio (Dr)}.

Similarly, when the recycled paper amount Dr is the quantity of recycled paper, the above-mentioned various factors are taken into consideration, and the paper production amount M is the paper demand amount D × market share Dm-paper inventory amount Ds-recycled paper. Quantity (Dr) -Paper import volume Di + Paper export volume De. The market share Dm, the paper inventory Ds is the company's own, and various other factors are the market as a whole, and the paper production volume M is {paper demand D-recycled paper quantity (Dr) -paper import volume Di + paper export volume De. } × Market share Dm-Paper inventory amount Ds may be calculated.

When the paper production amount M calculated by the above calculation formula exceeds the maximum paper production amount at the target factory, the paper production amount M is set to the maximum paper production amount. Further, if the paper production amount M is obtained, the pulp amount required for producing the paper for that amount can be obtained. Therefore, the pulp amount calculation unit 22 is based on the paper production amount M received from the paper production amount calculation unit 21. The above-mentioned planned pulp production amount Qp is calculated. At this time, if the planned pulp production amount exceeds the maximum pulp production amount at the target factory, the planned pulp production amount is set to the maximum pulp production amount.

According to the above configuration, the planned pulp production amount Qp is determined based on the paper production amount M calculated based on the paper demand amount D. By determining the planned pulp production amount Qp from the paper demand amount D, the business can be optimized more accurately.

In some embodiments, the pulp production planned amount determination unit 2 described above further includes an inventory amount acquisition unit 24 for acquiring a pulp inventory amount (hereinafter, pulp inventory amount Ps). Then, the pulp amount calculation unit 22 calculates the planned pulp production amount Qp based on the paper production amount M and the pulp inventory amount Ps. That is, since black liquor is not produced from the pulp that has already been produced, the planned pulp production amount Qp is calculated by subtracting the pulp inventory amount Ps from the pulp production amount obtained from the paper production amount M. As a result, the raw material usage amount Qr of the target raw material calculated based on the pulp production planned amount Qp can be calculated more accurately, so that the black liquor production planned amount Qf can be calculated more accurately. Therefore, the pulp profit / loss and the black liquor profit / loss can be calculated more accurately.

Hereinafter, a pulp manufacturing profit / loss trial calculation method corresponding to the processing executed by the pulp manufacturing profit / loss trial calculation system 1 described above will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 3 is a flow chart showing a pulp production profit / loss estimation method according to an embodiment of the present invention.

In some embodiments, as shown in FIG. 3, a pulp production planned amount determination step (S1), a target raw material selection step (S2), a raw material usage amount calculation step (S3), and a black liquor production planned amount calculation A step (S4), a total steam planned amount calculation step (S5), and a profit / loss calculation step (S6) including a black liquor profit / loss calculation step and a pulp profit / loss calculation step are provided.
The pulp manufacturing profit / loss estimation method shown in FIG. 3 will be described in the order of steps in FIG.

In step S1 of FIG. 3, the planned pulp production amount determination step is executed. The pulp production planned amount determination step (S1) is a step of determining the pulp production planned amount Qp described above, which is the planned amount of pulp to be produced. Since the planned pulp production amount determination step (S1) is the same as the processing content executed by the above-mentioned planned pulp production amount determination unit 2, details are omitted, but in some embodiments, the planned pulp production amount determination step. In (S1), after calculating the paper production amount M (described above) based on the paper demand amount D (described above) (paper production amount calculation step), the pulp production planned amount Qp is calculated based on the calculated paper production amount M. It may be calculated (pulp amount calculation step). At this time, in some embodiments, in the pulp production planned amount determination step (S1), the recycled paper amount Dr (described above) covered by the recycled paper in the paper production amount M is calculated (recycled paper amount calculation step). In the above paper production amount calculation step, the paper production amount M may be calculated based on the paper demand amount D and the recycled paper amount Dr. The above-mentioned paper production amount calculation step, pulp amount calculation step, and recycled paper amount calculation step are the same as the processing contents of the paper production amount calculation unit 21, the pulp amount calculation unit 22, and the recycled paper amount calculation unit 23, respectively, which have already been described. Therefore, the details will be omitted.

In step S2, the target raw material selection step is executed. The target raw material selection step (S2) is a step of selecting the above-mentioned target raw material as a raw material for pulp from at least one of the above-mentioned target raw material candidates. Since the target raw material selection step is the same as the processing content executed by the target raw material selection unit 31 described above, the details will be omitted.

In step S3, the raw material usage amount calculation step is executed. The raw material usage amount calculation step (S3) is a step of calculating the raw material usage amount Qr of the target raw material required for producing the pulp production planned amount Qp determined by the above-mentioned pulp production planned amount determination step (S1). .. Since the raw material usage amount calculation step is the same as the processing content executed by the raw material usage amount calculation unit 33 described above, the details will be omitted. In the embodiment shown in FIG. 3, in the raw material usage calculation step, the raw material information B of the target raw material including the pulp unit production amount Bp (described above) and the black liquid unit production amount Bf (described above) for the target raw material is acquired (target raw material). After the information acquisition step), the raw material usage amount Qr of the target raw material is calculated based on the pulp unit production amount Bp and the pulp production planned amount Qp of the acquired raw material information B. Since this target raw material information acquisition step is the same as the processing content of the target raw material information acquisition unit 32 already described, the details will be omitted.

In step S4, the step of calculating the planned amount of black liquor to be produced is executed. The black liquor production planned amount calculation step (S4) calculates the black liquor black liquor production planned amount Qf obtained from the raw material usage amount Qr calculated by the raw material usage amount calculation step (S3) described above. Since the step of calculating the planned black liquor production amount is the same as the processing content executed by the black liquor planned production amount calculation unit 4 described above, details thereof will be omitted. In the embodiment shown in FIG. 3, in the black liquor production planned amount calculation step (S4), the black liquor production planned amount Qf is the raw material usage amount Qr, and black for the target raw material acquired by the above-mentioned target raw material information acquisition step. It is calculated based on the liquid unit production amount Bf.

In step S5, the total steam planned amount calculation step is executed. The total steam planned amount calculation step (S5) is the total steam planned amount obtained from the black liquor planned production amount Qf calculated by the black liquor production planned amount calculation step (S4) by the recovery boiler using black liquor as fuel. This is a step of calculating Qs. Since the total steam scheduled amount calculation step (S5) is the same as the processing content executed by the total steam scheduled amount calculation unit 5 described above, the details will be omitted.

In step S6, the profit and loss calculation step is executed. The profit / loss calculation step (S6) is a step of calculating the black liquor profit / loss (described above) and the pulp profit / loss (described above), respectively, and is a step of calculating the black liquor profit / loss based on the total planned steam amount Qs described above. , The pulp profit / loss calculation step of calculating the pulp profit / loss based on the above-mentioned planned pulp production amount Qp is included. Since the black liquor profit / loss calculation step and the pulp profit / loss calculation step are the same as the processing contents executed by the black liquor profit / loss calculation unit 61 and the pulp profit / loss calculation unit 62, respectively, details are omitted. The calculated black liquor profit / loss and pulp profit / loss are shown on the screen of the display device or on paper.

According to the above configuration, it is possible to obtain the trial calculation results of pulp profit and loss and black liquor profit and loss when the target raw material is used, and the raw material type that can maximize the business profit and loss is selected based on the trial calculation result. Can be optimized.

Further, in some embodiments, as shown in FIG. 3, the above-mentioned target raw material candidates include a plurality of target raw material candidates, and the pulp production profit / loss estimation method calculates the total profit / loss of pulp profit / loss and black liquid profit / loss. In the total profit / loss calculation step (S7) to be calculated, and among the plurality of total profits / losses calculated for each of the plurality of target raw material candidates, the raw material specification for specifying the raw material in the plurality of target raw material candidates having the highest total profit / loss is specified. A step (S9) may be further provided. Since the total profit / loss calculation step (S7) and the raw material specifying step (S9) are the same as the processing contents executed by the total profit / loss calculation unit 63 and the raw material specifying unit 7, respectively, the details are omitted.

In the embodiment shown in FIG. 3, in step S7, the total profit / loss of the black liquor profit / loss and the pulp profit / loss calculated by the above-mentioned profit / loss calculation step (S6) is calculated. Then, the above-mentioned steps S1 to S7 are performed for each of the plurality of target raw material candidates. Then, in step S8, when steps S1 to S8 are repeated for all of the plurality of target raw material candidates, the process proceeds to step S9, and the largest total profit / loss calculated for each of the plurality of target raw material candidates. Identify (select) the target raw material (raw material) used to calculate the high total profit and loss. The raw material specified in the raw material specifying step (S9) is shown on a display, paper, or the like by a display device.

According to the above configuration, it is possible to more easily identify the raw materials that can optimize the business from the viewpoint of total profit and loss.

The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment, and includes a modification of the above-mentioned embodiment and a combination of these embodiments as appropriate.

1 Pulp production profit and loss estimation system 2 Pulp production planned amount determination unit 21 Paper production amount calculation unit 22 Pulp amount calculation unit 23 Recycled paper amount calculation unit 24 Inventory amount acquisition unit 31 Target raw material selection unit 32 Target raw material information acquisition unit 33 Raw material usage amount Calculation unit 4 Black liquid production planned amount calculation unit 5 Total steam planned amount calculation unit 6 Profit and loss calculation unit 61 Black liquid profit and loss calculation unit 62 Pulp profit and loss calculation unit 63 Total profit and loss calculation unit 7 Raw material identification unit 81 Raw material information database 82 Equipment information database

P Pulp manufacturing process Qp Pulp production planned amount Qr Raw material usage amount Qf Black liquid production planned amount Qs Total steam planned amount B Raw material information Bf Black liquid unit production amount Bp Pulp unit production amount D Paper demand Ds Paper stock amount Dr Recycled paper amount Dm Market share De Paper export volume Di Paper import volume M Paper production volume Ps Pulp inventory volume

Claims (10)

It is a pulp production profit / loss estimation system that calculates the pulp profit / loss obtained through pulp production and the black liquor profit / loss obtained through the production of black liquor produced by the pulp production.
A pulp production schedule determination unit that determines the pulp production schedule amount, which is the planned pulp production amount, and the pulp production schedule determination unit.
A target raw material selection unit that selects a target raw material as a raw material for pulp from a plurality of target raw material candidates, and a target raw material selection unit.
A raw material usage amount calculation unit for calculating the raw material usage amount of the target raw material required for producing the pulp production planned amount, and a raw material usage amount calculation unit.
A black liquor production planned amount calculation unit that calculates the black liquor production planned amount of the black liquor obtained from the raw material usage amount, and
A total steam planned amount calculation unit that calculates the total steam planned amount of steam obtained from the black liquor planned production amount by the recovery boiler using the black liquor as fuel, and
The black liquor profit / loss calculation unit that calculates the black liquor profit / loss based on the total steam planned amount,
It is equipped with a pulp profit / loss calculation unit that calculates the pulp profit / loss based on the planned pulp production amount.
The total profit / loss calculation unit that calculates the total profit / loss of the pulp profit / loss and the black liquor profit / loss,
A raw material specifying unit for specifying the target raw material having the highest total profit / loss among the plurality of total profits / losses calculated for each of the plurality of target raw material candidates as the target raw materials is further provided.
A pulp manufacturing profit and loss calculation system characterized by this. Further, a target raw material information acquisition unit for acquiring raw material information of the target raw material including the pulp unit production amount of the pulp produced from the predetermined unit of the target raw material and the black liquor unit production amount of the black liquor is further provided.
The raw material usage amount calculation unit calculates the raw material usage amount based on the pulp production planned amount and the pulp unit production amount for the target raw material.
The first aspect of claim 1, wherein the black liquor production planned amount calculation unit calculates the black liquor production planned amount based on the raw material usage amount and the black liquor unit production amount for the target raw material. Pulp manufacturing profit and loss estimation system. The pulp production planned amount determination unit is
The paper production amount calculation unit that calculates the paper production amount based on the paper demand amount,
The pulp production profit / loss estimation system according to claim 1 or 2 , further comprising a pulp amount calculation unit for calculating the planned pulp production amount based on the paper production amount. The pulp production planned amount determination unit further has a recycled paper amount calculation unit for calculating the recycled paper amount covered by the recycled paper among the paper production amounts.
The pulp production profit / loss estimation system according to claim 3 , wherein the paper production amount calculation unit calculates the paper production amount based on the paper demand amount and the recycled paper amount. The pulp production planned amount determination unit further has an inventory amount acquisition unit for acquiring the inventory amount of the pulp.
The pulp production profit / loss estimation system according to claim 3 or 4 , wherein the pulp amount calculation unit calculates the planned pulp production amount based on the paper production amount and the pulp inventory amount. It is a pulp production profit / loss estimation method for calculating the pulp profit / loss obtained through the pulp production and the black liquor profit / loss obtained through the production of the black liquor produced by the pulp production.
The pulp production planned amount determination step that determines the pulp production planned amount, which is the planned pulp production amount, and the pulp production planned amount determination step.
A target raw material selection step of selecting a target raw material to be a raw material of the pulp from a plurality of target raw material candidates, and a target raw material selection step.
A raw material usage calculation step for calculating the raw material usage amount of the target raw material required for producing the pulp production planned amount, and a raw material usage calculation step.
A black liquor production planned amount calculation step for calculating the black liquor production planned amount of the black liquor obtained from the raw material usage amount, and
A total steam planned amount calculation step for calculating the total steam planned amount of steam obtained from the black liquor planned production amount by the recovery boiler using the black liquor as fuel, and
The black liquor profit / loss calculation step for calculating the black liquor profit / loss based on the total steam planned amount, and
A pulp profit / loss calculation step for calculating the pulp profit / loss based on the planned pulp production amount is provided , and the pulp profit / loss is calculated.
A total profit / loss calculation step for calculating the total profit / loss of the pulp profit / loss and the black liquor profit / loss,
Further, among the plurality of total profits / losses calculated for each of the plurality of target raw material candidates as the target raw materials, a raw material specifying step for specifying the raw material in the plurality of target raw material candidates having the highest total profit / loss. Pulp manufacturing profit and loss estimation method characterized by preparing . Further provided with a target raw material information acquisition step for acquiring raw material information of the target raw material including the pulp unit production amount of the pulp produced from the predetermined unit of the target raw material and the black liquor unit production amount of the black liquor.
The raw material usage calculation step calculates the raw material usage amount based on the pulp production planned amount and the pulp unit production amount for the target raw material.
The sixth aspect of claim 6 , wherein the black liquor production planned amount calculation step is calculated based on the black liquor production planned amount based on the raw material usage amount and the black liquor unit production amount for the target raw material. Pulp manufacturing profit and loss estimation method. The step of determining the planned pulp production amount is
A paper production amount calculation step that calculates the paper production amount based on the paper demand amount, and
The pulp production profit / loss estimation method according to claim 6 or 7 , further comprising a pulp amount calculation step for calculating the pulp production planned amount based on the paper production amount. The pulp production planned amount determination step further includes a recycled paper amount calculation step for calculating the recycled paper amount covered by the recycled paper among the paper production amounts.
The pulp production profit / loss estimation method according to claim 8 , wherein the paper production amount calculation step calculates the paper production amount based on the paper demand amount and the recycled paper amount. The pulp production planned amount determination step further includes an inventory amount acquisition step for acquiring the inventory amount of the pulp.
The pulp production profit / loss estimation method according to claim 8 or 9 , wherein the pulp amount calculation step calculates the pulp production planned amount based on the paper production amount and the pulp inventory amount.

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