JP2019099939A - Pulp production profit and loss calculation system, and pulp production profit and loss calculation method - Google Patents

Abstract

To provide a pulp production profit and loss calculation system that enables selection of the optimum raw material type through estimation based on the raw material type of profit and loss based on each of pulp and black liquid obtained in pulp production.SOLUTION: The pulp production profit and loss estimation system includes: a pulp production scheduled amount determination unit that determines a pulp production scheduled amount; a target material selection unit that selects a target material serving as a pulp feedstock from at least one target material candidate; a raw material usage amount calculation unit which calculates raw material usage amount of target raw material necessary for manufacturing the pulp production scheduled amount; a black liquid production scheduled amount calculation unit which calculates black liquid production scheduled amount of black liquid obtained from raw material usage amount; a total steam scheduled volume calculation unit that calculates the total steam scheduled volume of steam obtained from the black liquid production scheduled amount by the recovery boiler fueled with the black liquid; a black liquid profit and loss calculation unit that calculates the black liquid profit and loss on the basis of the total steam scheduled volume; and a pulp profit and loss calculation unit that calculates pulp profit and loss on the basis of the pulp production scheduled amount.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1

Description

  The present disclosure relates to the optimization of pulp production, and in particular to the selection of raw materials used for pulp production.

  Pulp used in paper making, such as paper and paperboard, is a fiber mainly composed of cellulose, and non-wood pulp obtained from softwood and hardwood, non-wood pulp obtained from non-wood such as straw, flax and cotton, and waste paper It is manufactured using pulp as a raw material. For example, after wood pulp and non-wood pulp are boiled by adding chemicals and steam to the raw material in a digester to remove lignin in the raw material and take out the fiber (after digestion), the process such as washing the taken out fiber is carried out Manufactured. In such a pulping process, a waste liquid mainly composed of lignin, which is called by-product black liquor, is obtained as a by-product, but concentrated black liquor is a device that generates the steam and recovers the above chemicals from black liquor by combustion. It is used as fuel for the recovery boiler. Further, the steam generated by the recovery boiler is used as process steam used in processes such as heating or reaction such as electric power generation used in a paper mill as power of a turbine and the above-mentioned digestion.

  And, for example, Patent Document 1 discloses that the power generated by the black liquor regeneration energy is sold and used outside the paper mill. More specifically, cogeneration equipment in a paper mill equipped with a generator driven by a prime mover such as a gas turbine or a diesel engine and a waste heat recovery boiler generates electricity using natural gas as a fuel source and the waste heat The steam turbine generates electricity using the high-temperature high-pressure steam that In addition, steam (process steam) of the necessary pressure is extracted from the middle stage of this steam turbine and used in the production process in the paper mill. This supplies the electricity and steam used in the paper mill. On the other hand, the power generated by the steam generated by the black liquor recovery boiler using black liquor as a fuel source increases the output of the black liquor recovery boiler in the daytime and decreases it at night, so the selling price is higher In the daytime, sell electricity via a power transmission system such as a power company. As a result, it is possible to sell electricity in a time zone where the power demand is high, and to reduce fluctuations in the amount of power supplied to the outside, so it is possible to increase the selling price and to improve the economic effect.

JP, 2006-16985, A

  As described above, in the pulping process, pulp sold as paper, paperboard or the like and black liquor capable of generating power that can be sold are manufactured. For example, when the production amount of pulp increases, the production amount (recovery amount) of black liquor also increases, but the ratio of fiber content and lignin content recovered from the raw material of a predetermined unit (for example, unit weight) is higher in softwood than in hardwood Depending on the type of raw material, more lignin content remains in the black liquor recovered through the digestion process. That is, the unit amounts of pulp and black liquor that can be produced from the raw material of a predetermined unit differ depending on the type of raw material, and when raw materials with high fiber content (high ratio) are used, the production amount of pulp increases accordingly There are negative correlations such as the production volume of black liquor decreases accordingly. Moreover, in recent years, there is a fixed price purchase system (FIT) which obliges to buy electricity generated by renewable energy for a fixed period at a fixed price, and utilization of renewable energy is supported.

  Under such circumstances, the present inventors are based on the sales profit / loss (profit) of electricity etc. obtained when using fuel, which is a renewable energy, and the sales profit / loss of pulp through paper etc. By selecting a pulp material that would provide better profit and loss, we thought that it would be possible to optimize the business, such as maximizing profits.

  In view of the above, at least one embodiment of the present invention allows for the selection of the optimal source type through trial calculations based on the source type of the profit and loss based on each of the pulp and black liquor obtained in pulp manufacture The purpose is to provide a manufacturing profit and loss estimation system.

(1) A pulp production profit and loss estimation system according to at least one embodiment of the present invention,
What is claimed is: 1. A pulp production profit and loss estimation system for estimating the pulp profit and loss obtained through pulp production and the black liquor profit and loss obtained through production of black liquor produced by the pulp production,
A pulp production scheduled amount determination unit which determines a pulp production scheduled amount which is a scheduled amount of pulp to be produced;
A target raw material selection unit which selects a target raw material to be a raw material of the pulp from at least one target raw material candidate;
A raw material usage amount calculation unit that calculates the raw material usage amount of the target raw material necessary to produce the planned pulp production amount;
A black liquor production scheduled quantity calculation unit for calculating a black liquor production planned quantity of the black liquor obtained from the raw material usage quantity;
A total steam planned volume calculation unit configured to calculate a total planned steam volume obtained from the planned black liquor production volume by a recovery boiler that uses the black liquor as fuel;
A black-liquid loss calculation unit that calculates the black-liquid loss based on the total estimated steam volume;
And a pulp profit and loss calculation unit that calculates the pulp profit and loss based on the planned pulp production amount.

  According to the configuration of the above (1), the planned production amount of black liquor is calculated based on the usage amount of the raw material necessary to produce the pulp for the planned pulp production amount from the selected target raw material, and the production of the black liquor The profit and loss (pulp profit and loss) when the pulp for the pulp production scheduled amount is sold as a paper product etc. by calculating the total steam scheduled amount generated by the recovery boiler using black liquor as fuel based on the scheduled amount, and The profit and loss (black liquor profit and loss) in the case of converting the steam generated in the recovery boiler into electricity by converting the black liquor production scheduled amount into fuel and selling it for electricity are respectively calculated. As a result, it is possible to obtain the estimated results of the pulp profit and loss and the black liquor profit and loss when the target raw material is used. In addition, the amount of raw materials used to produce pulp for the planned amount of pulp production and the amount of black liquor to be collected differ depending on the type of raw materials, and calculation results for each of pulp profit and loss and black liquid profit and loss should be calculated. As a result, it becomes possible to determine the type of raw material based on the estimation result, and it is possible to optimize the business, such as selecting the type of raw material that can maximize business profit and loss based on the estimation result.

(2) In some embodiments, in the configuration of (1) above,
A target raw material information acquisition unit for acquiring raw material information of the target raw material including a pulp unit production amount of the pulp manufactured from a predetermined unit of the target raw material and a black liquor unit manufactured amount of the black liquor;
The raw material usage amount calculation unit calculates the raw material usage amount based on the planned pulp production amount and the pulp unit production amount for the target raw material,
The planned black liquor production amount calculation unit calculates the planned black liquor production amount based on the used amount of the raw material and the black liquor unit manufactured amount of the target raw material.

  According to the configuration of the above (2), the usage amount (raw material usage amount) of the target raw material is calculated based on the unit production amount of pulp for the target raw material, and obtained from the raw material usage amount and the predetermined unit of the target raw material From the unit production amount of black liquor to be produced, the planned production amount of black liquor obtained when pulp is produced using the target raw material is calculated. As a result, it is possible to appropriately calculate the amount of raw materials used and the amount of black liquor planned to be produced which are necessary for producing the pulp for the planned amount of pulp production from the selected target raw material.

(3) In some embodiments, in the configurations of (1) to (2) above,
The at least one target raw material candidate includes a plurality of target raw material candidates,
A total profit and loss calculation unit that calculates a total loss of the pulp profit and loss and the black liquid profit and loss;
The raw material identification | isolation part which specifies the said target raw material in which the said total profit / loss becomes the highest among the several said total profit / loss calculated as each said several said target raw material candidate each as said target raw material is further provided.
According to the configuration of the above (3), among the plurality of target raw material candidates, the raw material that maximizes the total loss of the pulp profit and loss and the black liquor loss is specified. This makes it possible to more easily identify the material that can optimize the business in terms of the total profit and loss.

(4) In some embodiments, in the above configurations (1) to (3),
The said pulp production scheduled amount determination part
A paper production amount calculation unit that calculates the paper production amount based on the paper demand amount;
And a pulp amount calculation unit that calculates the pulp production scheduled amount based on the paper production amount.
According to the configuration of the above (4), the planned pulp production amount is determined based on the paper production amount calculated based on the paper demand amount. By determining the pulp production scheduled amount under the paper demand amount, business optimization can be made more accurately.

(5) In some embodiments, in the configuration of (4) above,
The pulp production scheduled amount determination unit further includes a recycled paper amount calculation unit that calculates a recycled paper amount to be covered with recycled paper in the paper production amount,
The paper production amount calculation unit calculates the paper production amount based on the paper demand amount and the recycled paper amount.
According to the configuration of (5), the paper production amount is calculated based on the paper demand amount and the recycled paper amount. Currently, the pulp needed to meet the paper demand includes waste paper pulp made from recycled paper, but black liquor is not recovered in the process of making waste paper pulp. Therefore, it is assumed that the planned pulp production amount calculated based on the paper production amount does not include waste paper pulp by considering the recycled paper amount in calculating the paper production amount. By this, since the raw material usage amount of the target raw material can be calculated more accurately, the planned black liquor production amount can be calculated more accurately. Therefore, it is possible to calculate the pulp profit and loss and the black liquid profit and loss more accurately.

(6) In some embodiments, in the above configurations (4) to (5),
The pulp production scheduled amount determination unit further includes an inventory amount acquisition unit for acquiring the inventory amount of the pulp,
The pulp amount calculation unit calculates the expected pulp production amount based on the paper production amount and the stock amount of pulp.
According to the configuration of the above (6), the planned pulp production amount is calculated by subtracting the stock amount of pulp. Since black liquor is not produced from already produced pulp, the stock production amount is calculated by subtracting the stock amount of pulp from the production amount of pulp obtained from the paper production amount. By this, since it is possible to more accurately calculate the raw material usage amount of the target raw material calculated based on the planned pulp production amount, it is possible to more accurately calculate the planned black liquor production amount. Therefore, it is possible to calculate the pulp profit and loss and the black liquid profit and loss more accurately.

(7) A pulp manufacturing profit and loss estimation method according to at least one embodiment of the present invention,
A pulp production profit and loss calculation method, wherein the pulp profit and loss obtained through pulp production and the black liquor profit and loss obtained through production of black liquor produced by the pulp production are respectively calculated,
A pulp production planned amount determining step of determining a planned amount of pulp manufacture which is a planned amount of pulp to be manufactured;
A target raw material selection step of selecting a target raw material to be a raw material of the pulp from at least one target raw material candidate;
A raw material usage amount calculation step of calculating the raw material usage amount of the target raw material necessary to produce the planned pulp production amount;
A black liquor production planned quantity calculating step of calculating a black liquor manufacturing planned quantity of the black liquor obtained from the raw material usage quantity;
A total estimated steam volume calculating step of calculating a total estimated steam volume obtained from the estimated black liquor production volume by a recovery boiler fueled with the black liquor;
A black liquor profit and loss calculating step of calculating the black liquor profit and loss based on the total estimated amount of steam;
And a pulp profit and loss calculation step of calculating the pulp profit and loss based on the pulp production scheduled amount.

  According to the configuration of the above (7), the same effect as the above (1) can be obtained.

(8) In some embodiments, in the configuration of (7) above,
A target raw material information acquiring step of acquiring raw material information of the target raw material including a pulp unit production amount of the pulp manufactured from a predetermined unit of the target raw material and a black liquor unit manufactured amount of the black liquor;
The raw material usage amount calculation step calculates the raw material usage amount based on the planned pulp production amount and the pulp unit production amount for the target raw material,
The planned black liquor production amount calculation step calculates the planned black liquor production amount based on the used amount of the raw material and the black liquor unit manufactured amount of the target raw material.
According to the configuration of the above (8), the same effect as the above (2) can be obtained.

(9) In some embodiments, in the configurations of (7) to (8) above,
The at least one target raw material candidate includes a plurality of target raw material candidates,
A total profit / loss calculation step of calculating a total profit / loss of the pulp profit / loss and the black liquid profit / loss;
A raw material specifying step of specifying the raw material in the plurality of target raw material candidates for which the total profit or loss is the highest among the plurality of total profit and loss calculated respectively using the plurality of target raw material candidates as the target raw material; Prepare.
According to the configuration of the above (9), the same effect as the above (3) can be obtained.

(10) In some embodiments, in the configurations of (7) to (9) above,
The pulp production scheduled amount determining step is
A paper production amount calculation step of calculating the paper production amount based on the paper demand amount;
And a pulp amount calculating step of calculating the pulp manufacturing planned amount based on the paper manufacturing amount.
According to the structure of said (10), the same effect as said (4) is show | played.

(11) In some embodiments, in the configuration of (10),
The pulp production scheduled amount determining step further includes a recycled paper amount calculating step of calculating a recycled paper amount to be covered with recycled paper of the paper manufacturing amount,
The paper production amount calculating step calculates the paper production amount based on the paper demand amount and the recycled paper amount.
According to the structure of said (11), the same effect as said (5) is show | played.

(12) In some embodiments, in the above configurations (10) to (11),
The pulp production scheduled amount determination step further includes an inventory amount acquisition step of acquiring an inventory amount of the pulp,
The pulp amount calculation step calculates the pulp production estimated amount based on the paper production amount and the stock amount of pulp.
According to the structure of said (12), the same effect as said (6) is show | played.

  According to at least one embodiment of the present invention, there is provided a pulping profit and loss calculation system that enables selection of the optimum raw material type through trial calculation based on the raw material type of profit and loss based on each of pulp and black liquor obtained in pulp manufacture. Provided.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS It is a functional block diagram which shows the structure of the pulp manufacture profit-and-loss estimation system which concerns on one Embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart for demonstrating the manufacturing process of the pulp which concerns on one Embodiment of this invention, and a black liquor. It is a flow figure showing a pulp production profit-and-loss estimate method concerning one embodiment of the present invention.

Hereinafter, some embodiments of the present invention will be described with reference to the accompanying drawings. However, the dimensions, materials, shapes, relative arrangements, etc. of the components described as the embodiments or shown in the drawings are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention to this, but are merely illustrative. Absent.
For example, a representation representing a relative or absolute arrangement such as “in a direction”, “along a direction”, “parallel”, “orthogonal”, “center”, “concentric” or “coaxial” is strictly Not only does it represent such an arrangement, but also represents a state of relative displacement with an angle or distance that allows the same function to be obtained.
For example, expressions that indicate that things such as "identical", "equal" and "homogeneous" are equal states not only represent strictly equal states, but also have tolerances or differences with which the same function can be obtained. It also represents the existing state.
For example, expressions representing shapes such as quadrilateral shapes and cylindrical shapes not only represent shapes such as rectangular shapes and cylindrical shapes in a geometrically strict sense, but also uneven portions and chamfers within the range where the same effect can be obtained. The shape including a part etc. shall also be expressed.
On the other hand, the expressions "comprising", "having", "having", "including" or "having" one component are not exclusive expressions excluding the presence of other components.

  FIG. 1 is a functional block diagram showing the configuration of a pulp manufacturing profit and loss estimation system 1 according to an embodiment of the present invention. FIG. 2 is a flow diagram for explaining a pulp and black liquor manufacturing process according to an embodiment of the present invention.

  The pulp production profit and loss estimation system 1 is a black liquor obtained through pulp production (described later) obtained through the pulp production as shown in FIG. 2 and black liquor produced through the pulp production process P (process) (recovery). It is a system (apparatus) which estimates profit and loss (described later) respectively. The pulp production process P (chemical pulping process) will be described. First, as shown in FIG. 2, chemicals and steam are added to the raw material such as wood pulp to digest it, and a fiber component mainly composed of cellulose, lignin, etc. Separate the raw materials into the ingredients of other raw materials (digestion process). Next, the fiber portion of the raw material obtained by digestion is washed to wash away lignin and foreign substances (washing step). Thereafter, the pulp is manufactured by performing a process such as bleaching the fiber component of the raw material. Further, in the above-described washing step, black liquor (black liquor) containing other raw material components other than fiber such as lignin and chemicals during digestion can be obtained as a by-product of pulp production. Then, the black liquor can be used as a fuel for the recovery boiler by concentrating the black liquor using an evaporator.

  The recovery boiler is a facility that generates steam through the combustion of black liquor, and rotates the turbine by sending the generated steam to the turbine. The steam after rotating the turbine is sent to the above-described digestion process and other processes, and is used as heating or reaction as process steam. Then, power generation using a generator is performed by the rotation of the turbine by the steam, and the power demand in the factory, the power demand outside the factory, and the like are satisfied. The recovery boiler is also a facility that recovers the chemicals used in the cooking process from the black liquor, and recovers the inorganic substances contained in the ash remaining after the combustion of the black liquor. The inorganic substances recovered by the recovery boiler are reused for digestion after being regenerated into chemicals.

And, as shown in FIG. 1, the above-mentioned pulp production profit and loss estimation system 1 is, as shown in FIG. And 4, a profit / loss calculation unit 6 including a total estimated steam volume calculation unit 5, and a black-liquid loss calculation unit 61 and a pulp profit / loss calculation unit 62. As shown in FIG. 1, the pulp production profit and loss estimation system 1 may further include a target raw material information acquisition unit 32. The pulp manufacturing profit and loss estimation system 1 is configured by a computer, and includes a CPU (processor) (not shown) and a memory (storage device) such as a ROM and a RAM. Then, the CPU operates (calculates data, etc.) according to the instruction of the program (pulp production profit and loss calculation program) loaded in the main storage device to estimate pulp loss (described later) and black liquor loss (described later) respectively. The result is output on a screen or a sheet by a display device (a device having a display, a printer, an audio output device, etc.).
Hereinafter, the above-mentioned functional units included in the pulp manufacturing profit and loss estimation system 1 will be described with reference to FIG.

  The planned pulp production amount determination unit 2 determines a planned pulp production amount Qp, which is a planned amount of pulp to be produced. The planned pulp production amount Qp may be a planned production amount of pulp manufactured in one plant (for example, a paper mill, the same shall apply hereinafter). Alternatively, the planned production volume of pulp to be produced in multiple plants, such as when one company owns multiple plants or when considering the total planned production volume by the plants owned by each of the multiple businesses It may be Further, although the planned pulp production amount Qp may be determined arbitrarily, for example, it may be determined based on an index such as the production capacity of a factory, or it may be determined based on the paper demand amount D described later. Also good.

  The target raw material selection unit 31 selects a target raw material serving as a raw material of pulp used for the calculation of pulp profit (described later) and black liquor profit (described later) from at least one target raw material candidate. That is, a specific raw material (target raw material) used to manufacture the pulp for the pulp production scheduled amount Qp mentioned above is selected from one or more target raw material candidates. The target raw material selection unit 31 selects a raw material input through selection by the user from a list of target raw material candidates stored in a memory or the like in advance by the system, or direct input by the user of information identifying raw materials. It may be selected as a target material to be used. Alternatively, the target raw material selecting unit 31 may select (acquire) the target raw material by receiving an input of a list of one or more target raw material candidates and sequentially selecting the raw materials in the list.

  Further, the above-mentioned target raw material candidates include raw materials from which black liquor containing lignin and the like can be recovered. Therefore, although the target raw material candidates include woods such as softwoods and hardwoods, and raw materials classified as non-woods such as straw, flax and cotton, waste paper is excluded. Each raw material included in the target raw material candidate may be identified in a unit capable of individually identifying tree species such as red pine and black pine, and non-wood types, and conifers, broad-leaved trees and the like including plural tree species respectively. It may be specified in group units, such as non-wood, including cotton, flax, cotton and the like, or a combination thereof.

  The raw material usage amount calculation unit 33 calculates the raw material usage amount Qr of the target raw material necessary to produce the planned pulp production amount Qp. For example, in some embodiments, the raw material usage amount calculation unit 33 may be configured to calculate the raw material usage amount Qr using the raw material information B that is an information set related to the raw material for each raw material. Specifically, as shown in FIG. 1, the pulp manufacturing profit and loss estimation system 1 is a pulp manufactured from a predetermined unit, such as a unit weight (kg or the like), of the target raw material selected by the target raw material selection unit 31. The target raw material information acquiring unit 32 for acquiring the raw material information B of the target raw material including the unit production amount (hereinafter, pulp unit production amount Bp) and the black liquor unit production amount (hereinafter, black liquid unit production amount Bf) . The size of the predetermined unit described above is arbitrary. For example, in the case of weight, a unit weight such as 1 kg or 1 t may be used, or 2 kg or 10 kg may be used as the predetermined unit.

  Then, the raw material usage amount calculation unit 33 calculates the raw material usage amount Qr based on the planned pulp production amount Qp and the pulp unit production amount Bp for the target raw material. That is, since the pulp unit production amount Bp is the pulp production amount per unit raw material amount, it is possible to calculate the raw material usage amount Qr of the target raw material by multiplying the pulp unit production amount Bp by the expected pulp production amount Qp. There is (Qr = Qp × Bp). In the embodiment shown in FIG. 1, the pulp manufacturing profit and loss estimation system 1 includes a raw material information database 81 that stores raw material information B for each raw material. Then, the target raw material information acquiring unit 32 searches the raw material information database 81 with the target raw materials selected by the above-described target raw material selecting unit 31 to obtain the unit production amounts of the pulp and the black liquor described above regarding the target raw materials. To get

  In some embodiments, the raw material information B can affect the pulp unit production amount Bp, the black liquor unit production amount Bf, the calorific value of the black liquor, etc. The material classification information may further include at least one piece of characteristic information. The type of the above-mentioned raw material may indicate whether the raw material is wood or non-wood, and furthermore, in the case where the raw material is wood, what kind of wood is the tree, and when the raw material is non-wood The term may also be used to indicate which one of straw, flax and cotton. In this embodiment, the raw material information database 81 manages a table (raw material table) for storing the raw material information B including the raw material classification information. In the raw material table, a plurality of records are obtained by matching the raw material classification information by checking the pulp unit production amount Bp and the black liquor unit production amount Bf by changing the time etc. for the raw materials for which the above raw material classification information matches. May be stored. In this case, when the raw material information database 81 is searched with the raw material classification information of the target raw material as the search condition, a plurality of records will be acquired.

  Therefore, in some embodiments, the raw material usage calculation unit 33 calculates the average value and the mode of each of the plurality of pulp unit production amounts Bp and the plurality of black liquor unit production amounts Bf acquired from the raw material information database 81. The raw material usage amount Qr may be calculated based on a statistical value such as a value. In some other embodiments, the raw material usage amount calculation unit 33 obtains the similarity between the raw material classification information of the target raw material and the raw material classification information of the plurality of records managed in the raw material table, for example, the similarity is high One or more records may be acquired based on the obtained similarity, such as acquiring a record. When a plurality of records are acquired, the raw material usage amount Qr may be calculated based on the statistical value as described above. More specifically, a known method capable of obtaining similarity, such as matching by dynamic programming, is applied, or machine learning is performed using various information included in the raw material classification information as parameters, and the comparison with the comparison target is performed. Information on which the match is determined may be acquired by determining the one with the highest similarity as the match through the determination of the match. In machine learning, various types of information on raw material classification information managed in the raw material table may be trained as training data in advance to make a match and complete as a decision model, or while actually overlapping the match determination , May train the model. In this way, information having a high degree of similarity can be acquired from the raw material information database 81.

  The raw material table is used to calculate these values instead of the pulp unit production amount Bp and the black liquor unit production amount Bf, for example, the pulp production amount produced from the raw material usage amount and the raw material usage amount And an information field for storing the black liquor production amount may be managed. Further, the present invention is not limited to the present embodiment, and the raw material usage amount Qr may be calculated by another method using the pulp unit production amount Bp and the black liquor unit production amount Bf.

  The planned black liquor production amount calculation unit 4 calculates a planned black liquor production amount Qf of black liquor obtained from the raw material usage quantity Qr calculated by the above-described raw material usage quantity calculation section 33. For example, as described above, when the pulp manufacturing profit and loss estimation system 1 includes the target raw material information acquiring unit 32, the black liquor manufacturing planned amount calculating unit 4 calculates the black liquor manufacturing planned amount Qf as the raw material consumption Qr. And the black liquor unit production amount Bf for the target raw material. Specifically, since the black liquor unit production quantity Bf is the production quantity of black liquor per unit raw material quantity, the black liquor unit production quantity Bf is multiplied by the raw material usage quantity Qr to obtain the planned black liquor production quantity Qf. Calculation is possible (Qf = Qr × Bf).

  The total estimated steam volume calculation unit 5 calculates the total amount of steam obtained from the estimated black liquor production volume Qf by the above-described recovery boiler using black liquor as a fuel (hereinafter referred to as total estimated steam volume Qs). The calorific value per unit weight of black liquor (for example, MJ / kg) differs depending on the type of raw materials such as tree species, wood and non-wood, and the conditions at the time of digestion. In consideration of this, the total estimated steam volume Qs obtained from the estimated black liquor production volume Qf is calculated. In the embodiment shown in FIG. 1, the facility information of the recovery boiler is stored in the facility information database 82 for each plant.

  The profit and loss calculation unit 6 calculates the black liquid profit and loss and the pulp profit and loss, respectively. More specifically, the profit and loss calculation unit 6 calculates the pulp profit and loss on the basis of the black liquor profit and loss calculation unit 61 which calculates the black liquor profit and loss based on the total planned steam amount Qs described above, and the planned pulp production amount Qp described above. And a pulp profit / loss calculation unit 62. Pulp profit and loss are generated from the manufactured pulp by, for example, calculating the sales obtained by selling pulp itself and pulp products such as paper and paperboard manufactured using pulp as a raw material, by subtracting their manufacturing cost It is profit or loss (profit) obtained through value that can be sold to the outside (added value). More specifically, pulp profit and loss may be gross profit obtained by subtracting cost of sales from sales of pulp products, or operating profit obtained by subtracting SG & A expenses from this gross profit Also good.

  Similarly, the black liquor profit / loss is calculated by subtracting the manufacturing cost from the sales of electricity etc. obtained using fuel as described above, etc., and the value that can be sold to the outside generated from manufactured black liquor ( Profit or loss (gain) obtained through The steam generated by burning the black liquor in the recovery boiler can be used as power generation and process steam, but sales profits can be obtained by selling the electricity thus generated outside the factory. The steam may be sold to the outside as it is, and in that case, the sales include the profit from the steam sales. Conversely, when using the generated electricity or process steam in the factory, the corresponding sales profit can not be obtained, but the amount of electricity purchased from other electric utilities can be reduced accordingly. It is possible to reduce the cost. In other words, the added value generated from black liquor changes the black liquor profit / loss depending on the mode of use. In the embodiment shown in FIG. 1, when calculating the black liquor profit and loss, among the steam and electricity obtained by burning the black liquor in the recovery boiler, the steam and electricity used in the factory reduce the manufacturing cost As a factor, and also the amount of power generated by other power plants outside the plant or in the plant can be considered in profit and loss calculation as a manufacturing cost and as a factor to increase the amount of added value generated from black liquor It has become.

  Thus, although the production pulp and black liquor are produced through the pulp production process P, black liquor in particular can be either a means of lowering production costs or a means of gaining sales. In addition, when the calorific value per unit weight of the black liquor changes according to what the raw material is, along with that, the production amount of the pulp produced from the same raw material usage amount and the production amount of the black liquor also change. In addition, the procurement costs including the price of raw materials and transportation costs, and the unit price of electricity sales determined by demand and supply unless under the FIT system may change daily. That is, the used raw materials determined to be the most appropriate may not be optimal from the viewpoint of business profit or loss according to the change in the business environment. And, in order to maximize the profit and loss in the factory, etc., in order to enhance the business profit and loss, it is judged whether to give priority to either pulp or black liquor production and also how to use the value (added value) generated by the black liquor Is difficult.

  Under such circumstances, the present inventors are based on the sales profit / loss (profit) of electricity etc. obtained when using fuel, which is a renewable energy, and the sales profit / loss of pulp through paper etc. By selecting a pulp material that would provide better profit and loss, we thought that it would be possible to optimize the business according to the business environment, such as maximizing profits. For example, if the profit from sales of power generated using black liquor is high, it is better to use a raw material that can recover more black liquor than lowering pulp production costs, etc. There is a possibility that the total profit / loss with liquid profit / loss will be higher and the business profit / loss will become higher. At this time, it is also conceivable that the total profit or loss will be higher if the electricity used in the factory is daringly purchased from the outside and the electricity based on the black liquor is sold. On the contrary, even if the demand for paper and the like is high, and the amount of recovered black liquor and the calorific value decrease, it is possible to achieve higher total profit and loss by using raw materials that can produce pulp at lower cost. Conceivable.

  Therefore, by calculating the black liquor profit and loss and the pulp profit and loss when using the selected target raw material, the raw material used (target raw material) can be used as the target through comparison with the estimated results of different target raw materials and target profit and loss. You can make it easy to choose. Further, for example, if a plurality of raw materials are respectively calculated as target materials and compared, it is possible to know a raw material suitable for maximizing the total profit and loss. In addition, if the electricity and steam demand in the plant, and the pulp production scheduled amount Qp are estimated as variables, optimization can be performed in consideration of the conditions corresponding to the variables.

  According to the above configuration, the planned black liquor production amount Qf is calculated based on the raw material usage amount Qr necessary to produce the pulp for the planned pulp production amount Qp with the selected target raw material, and the planned black liquor production amount Profit and loss (pulp profit and loss) when pulp for the pulp production planned quantity Qp is sold as a paper product etc. by calculating the total steam planned quantity Qs generated by the recovery boiler using black liquor as fuel based on Qf, And the profit (black liquor profit or loss) in the case of converting the steam generated by the recovery boiler into electricity by converting the black liquor production planned quantity Qp into fuel and converting it to electricity is calculated respectively. As a result, it is possible to obtain the estimated results of the pulp profit and loss and the black liquor profit and loss when the target raw material is used. In addition, the amount of raw material usage Qr necessary to produce pulp for the amount of planned pulp production Qp and the amount of black liquor to be collected differ depending on the type of raw material, and calculation results of pulp profit and loss and black liquid profit and loss are calculated. By doing this, it becomes possible to determine the type of raw material based on the estimation result, and it is possible to optimize the business, such as selecting the type of raw material that can maximize business profit and loss based on the estimation result.

  In some embodiments, in the case where the target raw material candidate described above includes a plurality of target raw material candidates, as shown in FIG. 1, the pulp manufacturing profit and loss estimation system 1 calculates the sum of the pulp profit and loss and the black liquor profit and loss described above. A total profit / loss calculation unit 63 which calculates a profit / loss, and a raw material specification unit 7 which specifies a target raw material (raw material) having the highest total profit / loss among a plurality of total profit / losses calculated respectively with each of a plurality of target raw material candidates And further comprising That is, the pulp manufacturing profit and loss estimation system 1 calculates the total profit and loss for a plurality of target raw materials, and selects the target raw material having the largest total profit and loss. The raw materials specified in this way are displayed together with the top N (1 ≦ N ≦ total number of target raw material candidates) raw materials in a state where the user can grasp which of the plurality of raw materials is the raw material maximizing the total profit and loss. It may be displayed by the device, or may be displayed alone by the display device.

  According to the above configuration, among the plurality of target raw material candidates, the raw material that maximizes the total profit / loss of the pulp profit / loss and the black liquid profit / loss is specified. This makes it possible to more easily identify the material that can optimize the business in terms of the total profit and loss.

  In some embodiments, as shown in FIG. 1, the pulp production scheduled amount determination unit 2 described above calculates the paper production amount calculation unit 21 that calculates the paper production amount M based on the paper demand amount D, and the paper production amount And a pulp amount calculation unit 22 that calculates an estimated pulp production amount Qp based on the paper production amount M calculated by the calculation unit 21. The above-described paper demand D in the present embodiment is a market-wide demand of paper products including at least one of paper and paperboard. Further, the paper production amount M is, for example, the quantity, weight, and the like of paper products manufactured in one or more target factories (target factories).

  For example, when calculating the paper production amount M based on the paper demand amount D, as shown in FIG. 1, the amount or ratio of recycled paper (hereinafter referred to as recycled paper amount Dr), one or more of the target factory Market share of business operators (market share Dm), stock of paper products (hereinafter, paper stock Ds), export of paper products, import quantity or ratio (hereinafter, paper export quantity De, paper import quantity Di The paper production amount M may be smaller than the paper demand amount D by considering at least one of the above. For example, if recycled paper is used for the paper demand D, waste paper pulp will be produced, but black liquor will not be recovered in the process of producing waste paper pulp, so in calculation of pulp profit / loss and black liquid profit / loss, Exclude minutes. That is, the amount of recycled paper is regarded as a negative factor from the paper demand D. Similarly, the portion of the paper demand D exceeding the market share Dm, the paper stock Ds, and the paper import Di are not considered to be necessary to produce the corresponding pulp, and are considered as negative factors. On the contrary, the paper export amount De is considered as a positive factor since it is necessary to produce the corresponding pulp. The market share Dm may be based on past results or may be forecast.

  More specifically, assuming that the target factory is one or a plurality of factories owned by one company, for example, the various elements described above (recycled paper amount Dr, paper stock amount Ds, paper import amount Di, paper Based on the amount of paper demand D multiplied by the market share Dm of the company (own company) as the export volume De), all other factors as mentioned above The paper production amount M may be calculated by subtracting the factor to be considered among (in-house company). Or, for example, assuming that the market share Dm, the paper stock amount Ds is the company itself, and other various elements are for the entire market, various elements (same as above) excluding the paper stock amount Ds of the company are deducted from the paper demand amount D Above, it may be obtained by multiplying the company's market share Dm and subtracting the paper stock amount Ds from the company.

  In the embodiment shown in FIG. 1, the paper production amount calculation unit 21 considers the recycled paper amount Dr when calculating the paper production amount M based on the paper demand amount D. For this reason, as shown in FIG. 1, the pulp manufacturing profit and loss estimation system 1 further includes a recycled paper amount calculation unit 23 that calculates the recycled paper amount Dr covered with recycled paper among the paper production amount M. Then, the paper production amount calculation unit 21 calculates the paper production amount M based on the paper demand amount D and the recycled paper amount Dr (see below). As described above, by considering the recycled paper amount Dr in the calculation of the paper production amount M, it is assumed that the planned pulp production amount Qp calculated based on the paper production amount M does not include used paper pulp. Since the raw material usage amount Qr of the target raw material can be calculated more accurately by this, the planned black liquor production amount Qf can be calculated more accurately. Therefore, it is possible to calculate pulp loss and profit and loss more accurately.

  Furthermore, in the embodiment shown in FIG. 1, the paper production amount calculation unit 21 considers the market share Dm, the paper stock amount Ds, the paper export amount De, and the paper import amount Di in addition to the recycled paper amount Dr. There is. Specifically, assuming that the recycled paper amount Dr is the recycled paper ratio (recycled paper ratio) in the paper demand amount D, and the paper stock amount Ds, the paper import amount Di, and the paper export amount De are the quantities, the paper production amount calculation unit 21 uses the various elements described above as its own, and produces the paper production amount M, the paper demand amount D × market share Dm × {1-recycled paper ratio (Dr)} − paper inventory amount Ds−paper import amount Di + paper export Calculated by the amount De. Market share Dm, paper stock Ds in-house, other various elements in the whole market, paper production M M, [paper demand D × {1-recycled paper ratio (Dr)}-paper import Di + paper Export amount De] × market share Dm−paper stock amount Ds.

  Alternatively, the recycled paper amount Dr may be a ratio of recycled paper to the paper production amount M, and in this case, the paper production amount calculation unit 21 uses the various elements described above as its own and the paper production amount M Paper demand amount D × market share Dm−paper stock amount Ds−paper import amount Di + paper export amount De) × {1-recycled paper ratio (Dr)}. Market share Dm, paper stock amount Ds in-house, other various elements as the whole market, paper production amount M, {(paper demand amount D-paper import amount Di + paper export amount De) x market share Dm-paper It may be calculated by the stock amount Ds} × {1−recycled paper ratio (Dr)}.

  Similarly, when the amount of recycled paper Dr is the number of recycled paper, the various factors described above are the company's own, and the amount of paper production M is the amount of paper demand D × market share Dm−paper inventory amount Ds−recycled paper Quantity (Dr)-Paper import amount Di + paper export amount De calculated. Market share Dm, paper stock amount Ds in-house, other various elements as the whole market, paper production amount M {paper demand amount D-recycled paper quantity (Dr)-paper import amount Di + paper export amount De } × Market share Dm-Paper stock amount Ds may be calculated.

  When the paper production amount M calculated by the above-mentioned arithmetic expression exceeds the maximum paper production amount in the target factory, the paper production amount M is set to the maximum paper production amount. Also, if the paper production amount M is determined, the pulp amount necessary to produce the paper can be determined, so the pulp amount calculation unit 22 is based on the paper production amount M received from the paper production amount calculation unit 21. The planned pulp production amount Qp described above is calculated. At this time, when the planned amount of pulp production exceeds the maximum amount of pulp produced at the target plant, the expected amount of pulp production is made the maximum amount of pulp produced.

  According to the above configuration, the pulp production scheduled amount Qp is determined based on the paper production amount M calculated based on the paper demand amount D. By determining the pulp production scheduled amount Qp from the paper demand amount D, business optimization can be achieved more accurately.

  In some embodiments, the above-described scheduled pulp production amount determination unit 2 further includes an inventory amount acquisition unit 24 that acquires an inventory amount of pulp (hereinafter, a pulp inventory amount Ps). Then, the pulp amount calculation unit 22 calculates the pulp production planned amount Qp based on the paper production amount M and the pulp stock amount Ps. That is, since black liquor is not produced from the already produced pulp, the pulp production scheduled amount Qp is calculated by subtracting the pulp stock amount Ps from the pulp production amount determined from the paper production amount M. As a result, it is possible to more accurately calculate the raw material usage amount Qr of the target raw material calculated based on the planned pulp production amount Qp, so it is possible to calculate the planned black liquor production amount Qf more accurately. Therefore, it is possible to calculate the pulp profit and loss and the black liquid profit and loss more accurately.

  Hereinafter, a method for estimating the pulp production loss corresponding to the process performed by the above-described pulp production loss estimation system 1 will be described using FIG. FIG. 3 is a flow chart showing a method of estimating profit and loss of pulp production according to an embodiment of the present invention.

In some embodiments, as shown in FIG. 3, the planned pulp production amount determination step (S1), the target raw material selection step (S2), the raw material usage amount calculation step (S3), and the estimated black liquor production amount A step (S4), a total steam planned amount calculating step (S5), and a profit and loss calculating step (S6) including a black liquor profit and loss calculating step and a pulp profit and loss calculating step are provided.
The pulp production profit and loss estimation method shown in FIG. 3 will be described in the order of steps shown in FIG.

  In step S1 of FIG. 3, a pulp production scheduled amount determination step is executed. The planned pulp production amount determination step (S1) is a step of determining the above-mentioned planned pulp production amount Qp, which is the planned amount of pulp to be produced. Since the pulp production scheduled amount determination step (S1) is the same as the processing content executed by the above-described pulp production scheduled amount determination unit 2, the details are omitted, but in some embodiments, the pulp production scheduled amount determination step (S1) calculates the paper production amount M (described above) based on the paper demand amount D (described above) (paper production amount calculation step), and then calculates the pulp production scheduled amount Qp based on the calculated paper production amount M It may be calculated (pulp amount calculation step). At this time, in some embodiments, the planned pulp production amount determination step (S1) calculates the recycled paper amount Dr (described above) covered by the recycled paper of the paper production amount M (recycled paper amount calculation step), The above-described paper production amount calculating step may calculate the paper production amount M based on the paper demand amount D and the recycled paper amount Dr. The above-described paper production amount calculation step, pulp amount calculation step, and recycled paper amount calculation step are the same as the processing contents of the paper production amount calculation unit 21, pulp amount calculation unit 22, and recycled paper amount calculation unit 23 described above. Therefore, the details are omitted.

  In step S2, a target material selection step is performed. The target raw material selecting step (S2) is a step of selecting the above-described target raw material to be the raw material of pulp from at least one of the above-described target raw material candidates. The target material selection step is the same as the processing content executed by the target material selection unit 31 described above, and thus the details thereof will be omitted.

  In step S3, a raw material usage amount calculation step is executed. The raw material usage amount calculation step (S3) is a step of calculating the raw material usage amount Qr of the target raw material necessary for producing the planned pulp production amount Qp determined by the above-mentioned planned pulp production amount determination step (S1). . The raw material usage amount calculation step is the same as the processing content executed by the raw material usage amount calculation unit 33 described above, and thus the details thereof will be omitted. In the embodiment shown in FIG. 3, the raw material usage amount calculation step obtains raw material information B of the target raw material including the pulp unit production amount Bp (described above) and the black liquor unit produced amount Bf (described above) for the target raw material (target raw material After the information acquisition step, the raw material usage amount Qr of the target raw material is calculated based on the pulp unit production amount Bp and the pulp production planned amount Qp of the acquired raw material information B. Since the target raw material information acquisition step is the same as the processing content of the target raw material information acquisition unit 32 described above, the details will be omitted.

  In step S4, a black liquor production scheduled amount calculation step is executed. In the planned black liquor production amount calculation step (S4), the planned black liquor production amount Qf of black liquor obtained from the raw material usage quantity Qr calculated in the above-mentioned raw material usage quantity calculation step (S3) is calculated. The planned black liquor production amount calculation step is the same as the processing content executed by the planned black liquor production amount calculation unit 4 described above, so the details will be omitted. In the embodiment shown in FIG. 3, the black liquor production scheduled quantity calculating step (S4) comprises the black liquor production planned quantity Qf, the raw material usage quantity Qr, and the black for the target raw material acquired in the target raw material information acquiring step described above. Calculated based on the liquid unit production amount Bf.

  In step S5, a total estimated amount of steam calculation step is executed. The total estimated steam volume calculation step (S5) is a total estimated steam volume obtained from the estimated black liquor production volume Qf calculated by the above estimated black liquor production volume calculation step (S4) by the recovery boiler using black liquor as fuel It is a step of calculating Qs. The total estimated steam volume calculation step (S5) is the same as the process content executed by the total estimated steam volume calculation unit 5 described above, and thus the details will be omitted.

  In step S6, a profit and loss calculation step is executed. The profit / loss calculation step (S6) is a step for calculating black liquor profit / loss (described above) and pulp profit / loss (described above), and a black liquor profit / loss calculation step for calculating black liquor profit / loss based on the total estimated steam volume Qs. And a pulp profit and loss calculation step of calculating a pulp profit and loss based on the above-mentioned planned pulp production amount Qp. The black liquid profit and loss calculation step and the pulp profit and loss calculation step are the same as the processing contents executed by the black liquid profit and loss calculation unit 61 and the pulp profit and loss calculation unit 62 described above, and thus the details are omitted. The calculated black liquor profit and loss and pulp profit and loss are indicated on the screen of the display device, paper, or the like.

  According to the above configuration, it is possible to obtain estimated results of each of pulp profit and loss and black liquid profit and loss when using the target raw material, and select the type of raw material that can maximize business profit and loss based on the estimated results. Can be optimized.

  Further, in some embodiments, as shown in FIG. 3, the target raw material candidate described above includes a plurality of target raw material candidates, and the pulp production profit and loss estimation method is a total profit and loss of pulp profit and loss and black liquor profit and loss. The raw material specification which specifies the raw material in several object raw material candidates in which the total profit / loss becomes the highest among the total profit / loss calculation step (S7) to calculate and each of several object raw material candidates each calculated as an object raw material Step (S9) may be further provided. The total profit and loss calculating step (S7) and the raw material specifying step (S9) are the same as the processing contents executed by the total profit and loss calculating unit 63 and the raw material specifying unit 7 described above, and thus the details are omitted.

  In the embodiment shown in FIG. 3, in step S7, the total profit or loss of the black liquor profit and loss and the pulp profit and loss calculated in the profit and loss calculation step (S6) described above is calculated. Then, the above-described steps S1 to S7 are performed on each of the plurality of target raw material candidates. Then, in step S8, when steps S1 to S8 are repeated for all of the plurality of target raw material candidates, the process proceeds to step S9, and the most of the total profit or loss calculated for each of the plurality of target raw material candidates. Identify (select) the target raw materials (raw materials) used to calculate the high total profit or loss. The raw material specified in the raw material specifying step (S9) is indicated on a display, paper, or the like by the display device.

  According to the above configuration, it is possible to more easily identify the raw material that can optimize the business from the viewpoint of the total profit and loss.

  The present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, and includes the embodiments in which the above-described embodiments are modified, and the embodiments in which these embodiments are appropriately combined.

1 Pulp production profit and loss estimation system 2 Pulp production planned amount determination unit 21 Paper production amount calculation unit 22 Pulp amount calculation unit 23 Recycled paper amount calculation unit 24 Stock amount acquisition unit 31 Target material selection unit 32 Target material information acquisition unit 33 Raw material consumption amount Calculation unit 4 Black liquor production planned amount calculation unit 5 Total steam planned amount calculation unit 6 Profit and loss calculation unit 61 Black liquor profit and loss calculation unit 62 Pulp profit and loss calculation unit 63 Total profit and loss calculation unit 7 Raw material identification unit 81 Raw material information database 82 Equipment information database

P Pulp production process Qp Scheduled pulp production volume Qr Raw material usage volume Qf Scheduled black liquor production volume Qs Expected steam volume B Raw material information Bf Black liquor unit production volume Bp Pulp unit production volume D Paper demand volume Ds Paper stock volume Dr Recycled paper volume Dm Market Share De Paper Export Volume Di Paper Import Volume M Paper Production Volume Ps Pulp Inventory Volume

Claims (12)

What is claimed is: 1. A pulp production profit and loss estimation system for estimating the pulp profit and loss obtained through pulp production and the black liquor profit and loss obtained through production of black liquor produced by the pulp production,
A pulp production scheduled amount determination unit which determines a pulp production scheduled amount which is a scheduled amount of pulp to be produced;
A target raw material selection unit which selects a target raw material to be a raw material of the pulp from at least one target raw material candidate;
A raw material usage amount calculation unit that calculates the raw material usage amount of the target raw material necessary to produce the planned pulp production amount;
A black liquor production scheduled quantity calculation unit for calculating a black liquor production planned quantity of the black liquor obtained from the raw material usage quantity;
A total steam planned volume calculation unit configured to calculate a total planned steam volume obtained from the planned black liquor production volume by a recovery boiler that uses the black liquor as fuel;
A black-liquid loss calculation unit that calculates the black-liquid loss based on the total estimated steam volume;
A pulp manufacturing profit and loss estimation system, comprising: a pulp profit and loss calculating unit that calculates the pulp profit and loss based on the pulp manufacturing planned amount. A target raw material information acquisition unit for acquiring raw material information of the target raw material including a pulp unit production amount of the pulp manufactured from a predetermined unit of the target raw material and a black liquor unit manufactured amount of the black liquor;
The raw material usage amount calculation unit calculates the raw material usage amount based on the planned pulp production amount and the pulp unit production amount for the target raw material,
2. The black liquor production planned volume calculation unit according to claim 1, wherein the planned black liquor production volume is calculated based on the raw material usage quantity and the black liquor unit production quantity for the target raw material. Pulp production profit and loss estimation system. The at least one target raw material candidate includes a plurality of target raw material candidates,
A total profit and loss calculation unit that calculates a total loss of the pulp profit and loss and the black liquid profit and loss;
And a raw material specifying unit for specifying the target raw material having the highest total profit or loss among the plurality of total profit and loss calculated respectively using the plurality of target raw material candidates as the target raw material. The pulp production profit-and-loss estimate system according to claim 1 or 2. The said pulp production scheduled amount determination part
A paper production amount calculation unit that calculates the paper production amount based on the paper demand amount;
The pulp manufacturing profit and loss estimation system according to any one of claims 1 to 3, further comprising: a pulp amount calculating unit that calculates the pulp manufacturing planned amount based on the paper manufacturing amount. The pulp production scheduled amount determination unit further includes a recycled paper amount calculation unit that calculates a recycled paper amount to be covered with recycled paper in the paper production amount,
5. The pulp manufacturing profit and loss estimation system according to claim 4, wherein the paper production amount calculation unit calculates the paper production amount based on the paper demand amount and the recycled paper amount. The pulp production scheduled amount determination unit further includes an inventory amount acquisition unit for acquiring the inventory amount of the pulp,
The pulp manufacturing profit and loss estimation system according to claim 4 or 5, wherein the pulp amount calculation unit calculates the pulp manufacturing planned amount based on the paper manufacturing amount and the stock amount of the pulp. A pulp production profit and loss calculation method, wherein the pulp profit and loss obtained through pulp production and the black liquor profit and loss obtained through production of black liquor produced by the pulp production are respectively calculated,
A pulp production planned amount determining step of determining a planned amount of pulp manufacture which is a planned amount of pulp to be manufactured;
A target raw material selection step of selecting a target raw material to be a raw material of the pulp from at least one target raw material candidate;
A raw material usage amount calculation step of calculating the raw material usage amount of the target raw material necessary to produce the planned pulp production amount;
A black liquor production planned quantity calculating step of calculating a black liquor manufacturing planned quantity of the black liquor obtained from the raw material usage quantity;
A total estimated steam volume calculating step of calculating a total estimated steam volume obtained from the estimated black liquor production volume by a recovery boiler fueled with the black liquor;
A black liquor profit and loss calculating step of calculating the black liquor profit and loss based on the total estimated amount of steam;
And a pulp profit and loss calculating step of calculating the pulp profit and loss on the basis of the pulp manufacturing planned amount. A target raw material information acquiring step of acquiring raw material information of the target raw material including a pulp unit production amount of the pulp manufactured from a predetermined unit of the target raw material and a black liquor unit manufactured amount of the black liquor;
The raw material usage amount calculation step calculates the raw material usage amount based on the planned pulp production amount and the pulp unit production amount for the target raw material,
8. The black liquor production scheduled quantity calculating step according to claim 7, wherein the black liquor production planned quantity is calculated based on the raw material usage quantity and the black liquor unit production quantity for the target raw material. Pulp production profit and loss calculation method. The at least one target raw material candidate includes a plurality of target raw material candidates,
A total profit / loss calculation step of calculating a total profit / loss of the pulp profit / loss and the black liquid profit / loss;
A raw material specifying step of specifying the raw material in the plurality of target raw material candidates for which the total profit or loss is the highest among the plurality of total profit and loss calculated respectively using the plurality of target raw material candidates as the target raw material; The pulp production profit-and-loss estimate method according to claim 7 or 8 characterized by having. The pulp production scheduled amount determining step is
A paper production amount calculation step of calculating the paper production amount based on the paper demand amount;
The pulp manufacturing profit and loss estimation method according to any one of claims 7 to 9, further comprising: a pulp amount calculating step of calculating the pulp manufacturing planned amount based on the paper manufacturing amount. The pulp production scheduled amount determining step further includes a recycled paper amount calculating step of calculating a recycled paper amount to be covered with recycled paper of the paper manufacturing amount,
11. The method according to claim 10, wherein the paper production amount calculating step calculates the paper production amount based on the paper demand amount and the recycled paper amount. The pulp production scheduled amount determination step further includes an inventory amount acquisition step of acquiring an inventory amount of the pulp,
The pulp manufacturing profit and loss estimation method according to claim 10 or 11, wherein the pulp amount calculating step calculates the pulp manufacturing planned amount based on the paper manufacturing amount and the stock amount of the pulp.

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