JP6810597B2 - Heat source operation plan calculation device and method - Google Patents

Description

The present invention relates to a heat source operation plan calculation technique for calculating a heat source operation plan for efficiently operating a plurality of heat source devices according to demand.

In the heat source system, energy such as electric power, city gas, and oil is used to operate various heat source devices such as refrigerators, boilers, and cogeneration to generate heat energy such as cold water and steam, and to generate heat energy such as cold water and steam. It is an energy supply system that supplies consumers such as buildings.
In such a heat source system, from the viewpoint of energy saving and cost saving, it is necessary to operate the heat source equipment at the minimum operating cost while satisfying the demand generated by the consumer.
Conventionally, in order to specify the start / stop and load factor of such heat source equipment, a technique for calculating an operation plan based on the demand on the future representative day to be planned has been proposed (see, for example, Patent Document 1). ).

Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication No. 2012-234318

In such a conventional technique, the future demand generated by the consumer is calculated by the representative day representing each month, and the representative day defines the demand for each time in one day, and further, the representative day × the number of days. Defines the total amount of energy demand for January corresponding to the representative date. Therefore, if the demand data for the representative day in any month changes, the entire operation plan needs to be recalculated.

However, when purchasing energy such as gas used to generate thermal energy in a heat source system, there are actually full-year restrictions due to contracts regarding the annual consumption of these energies. Therefore, in order to satisfy such a full-year constraint, it is necessary to calculate the optimum operation plan in advance for a maximum of one year from the present time to the end of the contract. Therefore, there is a problem that the calculation processing load required for calculating the operation plan becomes large.

The present invention is for solving such a problem, and an object of the present invention is to provide a heat source operation plan calculation technology that can significantly reduce the processing load required for calculating an operation plan that satisfies the full-year constraint.

In order to achieve such an object, the heat source operation plan calculation device according to the present invention has at least the energy demand required for the heat source system during the planning period, the equipment characteristics of each heat source device used in the heat source system, and the above. Formulate the operational conditions related to the operation of each heat source device, including the operational purpose related to the heat source system, and the full-year constraint on the amount of purchased energy applied to the entire planning period, and optimize the obtained functional formula. This is a heat source operation plan calculation device that calculates a heat source operation plan indicating at least one of the start / stop and the load factor of each heat source device in each section of the planning period, and the operation conditions are described every predetermined review cycle. And by formulating the full-year constraint and semi-optimizing the obtained functional formula, the section constraint conditions related to the energy consumption subject to the full-year constraint in each section included in the remaining planning period are re-established. The section constraint condition calculation unit to be calculated and the latest operation condition, which is the operation condition for the corresponding latest period, are formulated for each of a plurality of calculation cycles provided in the review cycle, and the section constraint for the entire planning period. By formulating the latest constraint condition indicating the full-year constraint for the latest period based on the condition and optimizing the obtained functional formula, the start / stop and the start / stop of each heat source device in each section included in the latest period It is equipped with a latest operation plan calculation unit that calculates each of the latest operation plans indicating at least one of the load factors.

Further, in one configuration example of the heat source operation plan calculation device according to the present invention, the full-year constraint comprises a constraint relating to at least one of a load factor, an upper limit, and a lower limit relating to the purchased energy amount.

Further, one configuration example of the heat source operation plan calculation device according to the present invention is defined by the full-year constraint when the latest operation plan calculation unit calculates the latest operation plan for each section t included in the latest period M. The load factor indicating the average energy consumption ratio between the planning period Y and the specific period P of the planning period Y is α, the ratio between the planning period Y and the specific period P is Ny / Np, and the planning period Y. Let t ∈ Y \ M be the set of intervals t not included in the latest period M, and let t ∈ P \ M be the set of intervals t not included in the latest period M in the specific period P, and energy consumption in the interval t. Let h ^* _t be the amount, and let h be the total energy consumption of each heat source device in the latest period M, and be the energy consumption of each heat source device in the specific period P included in the latest period M. When the total is hp, the latest operation plans are calculated by the optimization process using the formula (3) described later.

Further, the heat source operation plan calculation method according to the present invention includes at least the energy demand required for the heat source system during the planning period, the equipment characteristics of each heat source device used in the heat source system, and the operational purpose of the heat source system. By formulating the operating conditions related to the operation of each heat source device and the full-year constraint on the amount of purchased energy applied to the entire planning period, and optimizing the obtained functional formula, each of the planning periods It is a heat source operation plan calculation method used in a heat source operation plan calculation device that calculates a heat source operation plan indicating at least one of the start / stop and load factor of each of the heat source devices in a section, and the section constraint condition calculation unit performs a predetermined review. By formulating the operating conditions and the full-year constraints for each cycle and semi-optimizing the obtained functional formulas, the energy consumption subject to the full-year constraints in each section included in the remaining planning period. The section constraint condition calculation step for recalculating each of the section constraints related to the above, and the latest operation condition which is the operation condition for the corresponding latest period for each calculation cycle provided in the latest operation plan calculation unit in the review cycle. Is formulated, and the latest constraint condition indicating the full-year constraint for the latest period is formulated based on the section constraint condition for the entire planning period, and the obtained function formula is optimized for the latest period. It is provided with the latest operation plan calculation step for calculating the latest operation plan indicating at least one of the start / stop and the load factor for each of the heat source devices in each section included in.

According to the present invention, the process of calculating the operation plan until the end of the planning period calculates the quasi-optimization problem for calculating the section constraint condition in each section to satisfy the full-year constraint, and the latest operation plan in the latest period. It is separated into the optimization problem for the purpose, of which the section constraints are calculated by executing the semi-optimization process every predetermined review cycle, and the latest operation plan is provided in multiple review cycles. It will be calculated by executing the optimization process for each calculation cycle.

For this reason, the processing frequency of the section constraint condition calculation is compared with the case where the calculation of the section constraint condition and the calculation of the operation plan for the entire remaining period of the planning period are executed by the optimization process for each calculation cycle as in the prior art. In addition to being able to significantly reduce the processing load, the processing load of the latest operation plan can also be significantly reduced. Therefore, it is possible to reduce the processing load required for calculating the operation plan that satisfies the full-year constraint.

It is a block diagram which shows the structure of the heat source operation plan calculation apparatus. It is a sequence diagram which shows the processing timing example. This is a calculation example of the latest operation plan. It is explanatory drawing which shows the change of the processing load. It is a flowchart which shows the heat source operation plan calculation process. It is explanatory drawing which shows the calculation process of the section constraint condition. This is an example of calculating the interval constraint condition. This is a calculation example of the latest constraint condition. It is explanatory drawing which shows the calculation process of the latest operation plan.

Next, an embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to the drawings.
[First Embodiment]
First, the heat source operation plan calculation device 10 according to the first embodiment of the present invention will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a heat source operation plan calculation device.

The heat source operation plan calculation device 10 is composed of an information processing device such as a server device as a whole, and at least the energy demand required for the heat source system during the planning period, the equipment characteristics of each heat source device used in the heat source system, and the heat source. The operating conditions for the operation of each heat source device, including the purpose of optimizing the energy consumption in the system, and the full-year constraint on the amount of purchased energy applied for the entire planning period are formulated, and the obtained functional formula is optimized. It has a function to calculate a heat source operation plan indicating at least one of the start / stop and the load factor of each heat source device in each section of the planning period by the conversion process.

[Principle of invention]
In general, the background to calculating the optimal operation plan is the need to comply with relatively long-term full-year constraints such as contracts for annual gas consumption, and cost-saving operation that meets the latest energy demand. There are two needs. Of these, the latest energy demand can be predicted more accurately by using the latest weather forecast or taking into account the latest consumer conditions. Therefore, it is better to update the operation plan showing at least one of the start / stop and the load factor of the heat source equipment at each time in a short period of time.

Here, the operation plan to be obtained by such high-frequency prediction is only the operation plan in the latest period, and if the full-year constraint can be observed, the heat source equipment at each time for a long period from the latest period to the end of the planning period. It is not necessary to update the operation plan showing at least one of the start / stop and the load factor each time. In fact, such an optimization problem of calculating an operation plan until the end of the planning period requires a forecast of energy demand in the distant future. However, since such a distant future energy demand forecast contains many errors, the obtained operation plan is inaccurate and difficult to use for controlling the heat source equipment at each time in the distant future.

Therefore, strict optimization is not necessary in the calculation of the operation plan from the latest period to the end of the planning period, and the section constraint condition in each section to satisfy the full-year constraint, that is, the quasi-optimization problem for calculating the gas consumption. It means that it should be regarded as. This means that even if the gas consumption specified in any section indicated by the section constraint cannot be consumed, it can be recovered in the subsequent sections, so it is not necessary to calculate the gas consumption strictly. Because.

In general, an optimization problem is a problem of searching for a variable whose value of a certain objective function is an extreme value (minimum or maximum), and many methods have been proposed. In such an optimization problem, so-called optimization processing, in which processing is continued until a global optimum solution corresponding to an extreme value is searched, and a local solution that satisfies a preset constraint, that is, an approximate solution is searched. There is a so-called semi-optimization process in which the process ends at that point. In particular, depending on the objective function, there may be a plurality of such approximate solutions, and the processing time and the processing time can be reduced by ending the search process when such an approximate solution is found.

In the present invention, the optimization problem for calculating the operation plan until the end of the planning period is the quasi-optimization problem for calculating the section constraint condition in each section for satisfying the full-year constraint, and the latest period. Focusing on the fact that it can be separated from the semi-optimization problem for calculating the latest operation plan, the section constraints are calculated by executing the semi-optimization process every predetermined review cycle, and the latest operation plan is calculated. Is calculated by executing the optimization process for each calculation cycle provided in the review cycle.
As a result, the processing frequency and processing load of the section constraint condition calculation can be reduced, and the processing load of the latest operation plan can be reduced.

[Heat source operation plan calculation device]
Next, with reference to FIG. 1, the configuration of the heat source operation plan calculation device 10 according to the present embodiment will be described in detail.
As shown in FIG. 1, the heat source operation plan calculation device 10 has, as main functional units, a communication I / F unit 11, an operation input unit 12, a screen display unit 13, a data acquisition unit 14, a storage unit 15, and a section constraint. The condition calculation unit 16, the latest operation plan calculation unit 17, the section constraint condition DB 18, and the operation plan DB 19 are provided.

The communication I / F unit 11 has a function of performing data communication via a communication network with an external device such as a server, an administrator terminal, or a heat source system that provides various data such as meteorological data.
The operation input unit 12 is composed of an operation input device such as a keyboard, a mouse, and a touch panel, and has a function of detecting an operator's operation.

The screen display unit 13 is composed of a screen display device such as an LCD, and has a function of displaying various screens such as a menu screen, a setting screen, and an operation plan screen.
The data acquisition unit 14 acquires various processing data used for the calculation processing of the heat source operation plan from an external device connected via a communication network or from an operation input unit 12 for detecting an operator operation and stores the data in the storage unit 15. Has the function of

The storage unit 15 is composed of a storage device such as a hard disk or a semiconductor memory, and has a function of storing various processing data used for calculation processing of a heat source operation plan and a program for calculation processing. The main processing data stored in the storage unit 15 includes energy demand data 21, device characteristic data 22, operation purpose data 23, device operating condition data 24, and energy contract data 25.

The energy demand data 21 is data showing various energy demands such as cold / hot water demand and electric power demand required for the heat source system during the planning period of the operation plan. In general, energy demand tends to be repeated in units of 24 hours, and a plurality of patterns may be used, for example, a pattern related to a representative day of each month indicating weekdays / holidays and a pattern related to peak days in summer / winter. ..

The device characteristic data 22 is data showing various operating characteristics such as device efficiency, maximum (rated) heat generated, and minimum heat generated for each heat source device used in the heat source system 20.
The operation purpose data 23 is data indicating the operation purpose required for the heat source system 20, and is data showing various indicators such as economic efficiency, energy saving, environmental protection, and controllability, which are the purposes when the heat source system 20 is operated. Is.
The device operating condition data 24 is data indicating conditions related to the operation of each heat source device, such as a start priority for each heat source device used in the heat source system, a penalty for frequent start / stop, and a stop condition for the occurrence of a failure in the device.

The energy contract data 25 is data relating to an energy contract concluded with an energy supply company such as a gas load factor, an electric power demand, and a gas demand, and the actual energy consumption covered by the energy contract. In particular, regarding the gas load factor, it is necessary to adjust the gas consumption over the entire planning period of the operation plan, and it is said that it is difficult to comply with the contract. In the present embodiment, a case where the annual contract based on the gas load factor is set as a full-year constraint will be described as an example, and the full-year constraint condition formula based on the contract contents will be described in detail later.

The section constraint condition calculation unit 16 includes an operation condition including energy demand data 21, device characteristic data 22, operation purpose data 23, and device operation condition data 24 acquired from the storage unit 15 and a storage unit 15 for each predetermined review cycle. Energy consumption in some or all sections included in the remaining planning period by semi-optimizing the function to formulate the full-year constraint consisting of the energy contract data 25 obtained from It has a function of recalculating each of the section constraints related to the above and registering them in the section constraint DB 18.

The latest operation plan calculation unit 17 is an operation composed of energy demand data 21, device characteristic data 22, operation purpose data 23, and device operation condition data 24 acquired from the storage unit 15 for each calculation cycle provided in a plurality of review cycles. Based on the conditions, the function to formulate the latest operation condition, which is the operation condition for the corresponding latest period, and the latest constraint condition, which indicates the full-year constraint for the latest period based on the section constraint condition for the entire planning period acquired from the section constraint condition DB18. By optimizing the function that formulates the above and the function formula obtained by formulating these latest operation conditions and the latest constraint conditions, the start / stop and load factor of each heat source device in each section included in the latest period. It has a function of calculating each of the latest operation plans indicating at least one of the above and registering them in the operation plan DB 19.

The section constraint condition DB 18 is a database composed of a storage device such as a hard disk or a semiconductor memory and stores section constraint conditions in each section provided in the planning period.
The operation plan DB 19 is a database composed of a storage device such as a hard disk or a semiconductor memory, and stores the latest operation plan showing at least one of the start / stop and the load factor of each heat source device in each latest period provided in the planning period.

[Processing timing]
Next, with reference to FIG. 2, the processing timing related to the semi-optimization processing and the optimization processing in the heat source operation plan calculation device 10 according to the present embodiment will be described. FIG. 2 is a sequence diagram showing an example of processing timing.
As shown in FIG. 2, when the planning period Y of the operation plan is one year from April 1 to March 31 of the following year and the review cycle E is one month, the section constraint condition calculation unit 16 is semi-optimal. The section constraint condition calculation process using the conversion process is executed at the review cycle E, that is, every month, at the beginning of each month, for example, immediately before that. The review cycle E is not limited to one month, and may be adjusted according to the accuracy required for the section constraint condition in the actual heat source system, such as every two weeks or every two months.

At this time, the calculation target period for which the section constraint condition is calculated is each section of the planning period Y included in the remaining period after the review cycle E for executing the process. For example, in the first calculation process carried out on April 1, each section included in the 12 months until March 31 of the following year is the calculation target, and in the second calculation process carried out on May 1, Each section included in the 11 months until March 31 of the following year will be calculated. The period for which the section constraint condition is calculated is not limited to all the sections included in the remaining period after the review cycle E, and at least the next review cycle following the review cycle E for executing the process. Each section included in the period until the arrival of E may be set as the calculation target period.

Further, as shown in FIG. 2, when the calculation cycle F is set to 1 hour, the latest operation plan calculation process using the optimization process by the latest operation plan calculation unit 17 is performed at the beginning of each time, for example, immediately before that. Is executed. The calculation cycle F is not limited to one hour, but is within the range of the calculation target period or less, such as every 30 minutes or every week, depending on the accuracy required for the latest operation plan in the actual heat source system. You just have to adjust.

At this time, the calculation target period to be calculated in the latest operation plan is each section included in the preset latest period M, for example, 24 hours. FIG. 3 is a calculation example of the latest operation plan. Here, each time for 24 hours for N (N is an integer of 2 or more) heat source devices # 1, # 2, ..., #N calculated based on the section constraint condition for each section (time). The start and stop (operation required) is shown. According to this latest operation plan, for example, the heat source device # 1 is operated from 7:00 to 20:00, and the heat source device # 2 is operated from 9:00 to 17:00.

Since forecast data such as temperature and weather are used to calculate the latest operation plan, if the prediction accuracy of these forecast data is sufficient, the calculation target period of the latest operation plan may be several days, or even one week. , It may be set longer than 24 hours, or it may be shortened to 12 hours to calculate the latest operation plan with high accuracy.

FIG. 4 is an explanatory diagram showing a change in the processing load. Here, based on the example of FIG. 2, the process related to the section constraint condition calculation process when the planning period Y is one year from April 1 to March 31 of the following year and the review cycle E is one month. Changes in load are shown. In the latest operation plan calculation process, the calculation target period is relatively short and constant, so the processing load is also small and constant.

According to the prior art, for example, the processing equivalent to the section constraint condition calculation processing is executed by the optimization processing according to the calculation cycle of the operation plan, so that the processing load as shown by the broken line in FIG. 4 is generated. Become. On the other hand, according to the present embodiment, the section constraint condition calculation process is intermittently executed in the review cycle E (every month) and is executed by the semi-optimization process, so that the processing load is significantly reduced. It turns out that it will be done. In the section constraint condition calculation process, when the calculation target period is set to the end of the planning period, the processing load is reduced as the number of processes increases.

Specific examples of the interval constraint condition calculation process by the quasi-optimization process include a method of finding a relaxed solution in which integer variables are relaxed, and a method of increasing the upper and lower limit gaps in the branch-and-bound method.
The solution obtained by such semi-optimization processing is not guaranteed to be the optimum solution, but the interval constraint condition can be calculated if the full-year constraint condition is satisfied.

[Operation of the first embodiment]
Next, the operation of the heat source operation plan calculation device 10 according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. FIG. 5 is a flowchart showing a heat source operation plan calculation process.
The heat source operation plan calculation device 10 executes the heat source operation plan calculation process of FIG. 5 in response to an operation plan calculation instruction by the operator.

[Set calculation conditions]
First, the data acquisition unit 14 acquires various processing data such as energy demand data 21, device characteristic data 22, operation purpose data 23, device operating condition data 24, and energy contract data 25 from an external device or operation input unit 12. , The calculation conditions used for calculating the operation plan are set by storing the data in the storage unit 15 (step 100).

Of these, the energy demand data 21, the device characteristic data 22, the operation purpose data 23, and the device operating condition data 24 are used as the operation conditions related to the operation of each heat source device among the calculation conditions. In addition, the energy contract data 25 is used as a full-year constraint on the amount of purchased energy applied to the entire planning period, such as an annual gas load factor contract, among the calculation conditions.

The annual gas load factor contract is a contract to reduce the bias of gas consumption in winter, and generally, the contract for four months in winter of December, January, February, and March of the year is P for a specific period. It is set as (maximum demand month), and the contract condition is that the ratio of the annual average gas consumption to the monthly average gas consumption in the specific period P is set to the load factor α or more.

For example, assuming that the gas consumption in i-month of the year is gi, the contract condition formula of the annual gas load factor contract is expressed by the following formula (1).

Although the load factor α is set individually for each actual annual gas load factor contract with the consumer, it is usually set to a value of less than 1 and 1/3 or more. As a result, the consumer consumes gas equal to or more than α of the average gas consumption in the specific period P on an annual average. In general, gas consumption tends to decrease in summer when the temperature is high compared to winter when the temperature is low, so it is necessary to systematically adjust the gas consumption throughout the year in advance. In the present embodiment, the process of allocating such a full-year constraint as the section constraint condition in each section is performed by the semi-optimization process in the section constraint condition calculation unit 16 described later.

If the gas consumption covered by the annual gas load factor contract includes the gas consumption consumed by other than the heat source system such as ancillary equipment, the total consumption of these gas consumption in the specific period P ( (Schedule) may be added in the right bracket of the formula (1), and the total consumption (plan) for the entire period may be added in the left bracket of the formula (1).

Further, the energy demand data 21 may be set for all sections in the same manner as the gas consumption, but in reality, some representative days are set and the energy demand is defined for each, and the month. The corresponding representative day may be repeated according to the day of the week. The energy demand on the representative day may be defined from past results.

At this time, if the optimization problem is defined so that the same operation plan is calculated for one representative day, the scale of the optimization problem can be reduced as compared with the case where the operation plan is calculated for all the sections. For example, if it is defined that April 1st and April 8th are represented by the same representative day and the exact same operation plan can be calculated for both days, the operation plan for one day can be calculated for both days. It will be good.

[Calculation of interval constraints (quasi-optimization)]
Next, the section constraint condition calculation unit 16 formulates the calculation condition set by the data acquisition unit 14 in step 100, and semi-optimizes the obtained function formula to include it in the remaining planning period Y. The section constraint conditions related to the gas consumption in each section are recalculated and registered in the section constraint condition DB 18 (step 101). As for the formulation and semi-optimization methods, generally known methods may be used.

FIG. 6 is an explanatory diagram showing a calculation process of the section constraint condition. In the section constraint condition calculation process, the energy demand data 21, the device characteristic data 22, the operation purpose data 23, and the device operation condition data 24 of the storage unit 15 are used as the operation conditions related to the heat source system among the calculation conditions, and the storage unit 15 is used. The acquired energy contract data 25 is used as a full-year constraint on the heat source system among the calculation conditions.

For example, the calculation target period for calculating the section constraint condition is the entire planning period Y, all the sections included in the planning period Y are t ∈ Y, the load factor in the gas annual load factor contract is α, and the gas annual load factor contract. When the specific period P in is Np months out of Ny months, the interval included in the specific period P is t ∈ P, and the interval constraint condition in the interval t, that is, the gas consumption is h ^* _t , a function indicating a full-year constraint. The formula is represented by the following formula (2) based on the above-mentioned formula (1).

As a result, the section constraint condition for which the full-year constraint is satisfied under the operating conditions is calculated for each section t. FIG. 7 is an example of calculating the section constraint condition. Here, the gas consumption h ^* _t is calculated as a section constraint condition for each section t every hour. At this time, as described above, when the data of the representative day is used as the demand data, the gas consumption h ^* _t also has the same gas consumption at the same time on the same representative day, so that the actual gas consumption is actually the same. It is not necessary to calculate the individual gas consumption h ^* _t for each section t.

If the contract has already been started and the past gas consumption within the contract period is obtained as an actual result and is included in the energy contract data 25, the actual value is included in the optimization conditions. And. When the past actual value is included in the optimization condition, the past section is excluded from the sum of both sides of the above equation (2), and instead, the total actual gas consumption included in the specific period P is calculated on the right side. In addition to the total result, the total actual gas consumption over the entire period may be added to the total on the left side. The same applies when the contract includes gas consumption other than the target heat source system.

[Update of latest operating conditions]
Next, the data processing unit 14 acquires various processing data such as energy demand data 21, device characteristic data 22, operation purpose data 23, and device operating condition data 24 regarding the latest period from the external device and the operation input unit 12. , The latest operation condition used for calculating the latest operation plan is updated by storing the data in the storage unit 15 (step 102).

Of these, the energy demand data 21 is updated by acquiring the latest energy demand for the latest period. At this time, for the energy demand, the predicted value may be used based on the latest weather forecast, the operating status of the consumer, and the like.
Further, regarding the operation purpose data 23, if the energy unit price used for the operation purpose fluctuates in the short term due to the demand response in the latest period, the fluctuation amount may be reflected.

Further, the device operating condition data 24 may reflect the change in the start priority of the heat source device in the latest period, the setting of the constraint condition for always stopping the heat source device that has suddenly failed, and the like, and the operator inputs the operation. Alternatively, data may be acquired from another system in which the failure status of the heat source device is registered.

[Calculation of latest constraint conditions]
Subsequently, the latest operation plan calculation unit 17 acquires the section constraint conditions for each section of the entire planning period calculated by the section constraint condition calculation unit 16 from the section constraint condition DB 18, and from these section constraint conditions, the full-year constraint for the latest period. The latest constraint condition indicating the above is calculated (step 103).
FIG. 8 is an example of calculating the latest constraint condition. Here, it is assumed that the section constraint condition calculation unit 16 calculates the gas consumption h ^* _t as the section constraint condition for each section t for each hour in the planning period Y, and the latest operation plan calculation unit 17 determines. Based on these gas consumptions h ^* _t , the latest constraint condition indicating the full-year constraint for the latest period M is calculated.

In the annual gas load factor contract, as described above, for example, the four months of winter in December, January, February, and March of the year are set as the specific period P (maximum demand month), so that the period is within the latest period M. The boundary between the specific period P and the normal period Q other than the specific period P may be included. Therefore, in FIG. 8, the period included in the normal period Q in the latest period M is defined as the latest normal period Qm, and the period included in the specific period P in the latest period M is defined as the latest specific period Pm. Further, the normal period Q other than the latest period M in the planning period Y is defined as the residual normal period Qr, and the specific period P other than the latest period M in the planning period Y is defined as the residual specific period Pr.

As shown in the above formula (1), the annual gas load factor contract is a contract condition in which the ratio of the annual average gas consumption to the monthly average gas consumption in the specific period P is set to the load factor α or more. Therefore, as shown in FIG. 8, the total gas consumption in the entire latest period M is hm, the total gas consumption in the entire latest specific period Pm is hp, and the residual normal period Qr other than the latest period M and the residual specification are specified. If it is considered that the gas consumption with the period Pr matches the gas consumption h ^* _t obtained as the section constraint condition, the gas annual load factor contract, which is a full-year constraint, can be expressed as the relationship between hm and hp. it can.

That is, the load factor indicating the average energy consumption ratio between the planning period Y and the specific period P in the planning period Y is α, the ratio between the planning period Y and the specific period P is Ny / Np, and the planning period Y Let t ∈ Y \ M be the set of intervals t not included in the latest period M, and let t ∈ P \ M be the set of intervals t not included in the latest period M in the specific period P, and the energy consumption in the interval t. Is h ^* _t , the total energy consumption of each heat source device in the latest period M is hm, and the total energy consumption of each heat source device in the specific period P included in the latest period M is hp. Then, the equation (1) can be expressed by the following equation (3). Further, in the equation (3), since all the values of the variables other than hm and hp are known, it can be expressed as the following equation (4) by using the constant C ₁ .

In the equation (3), the case where the boundary between the specific period P and the normal period Q other than the specific period P is included in the latest period M is described as an example, but the case where the boundary is not included is also explained by these equations. it can. That is, when the latest period M is all the normal period Q, hp = 0 may be set. Further, when the latest period M is all the specific period P, hp = hm may be set.

[Calculation of latest operation plan]
Subsequently, the latest operation plan calculation unit 17 formulates the latest operation conditions and the latest constraint conditions updated / calculated as described above, and optimizes the obtained function formulas to be included in the latest period. The latest operation plan indicating at least one of the start / stop and the load factor for each heat source device in each section is calculated, and the obtained latest operation plan is stored in the operation plan DB 19 (step 104). As the formulation and optimization methods, generally known methods may be used.

FIG. 9 is an explanatory diagram showing a calculation process of the latest operation plan. Here, the energy demand data 21, the equipment characteristic data 22, the operation purpose data 23, and the equipment operation condition data 24 updated by the data acquisition unit 14 are used for formulating the latest operation conditions, but there is no change. As for the data, the data up to that point stored in the storage unit 15 may be used.
Further, the section constraint condition calculated by the section constraint condition calculation unit 16 based on the energy contract data 25 is read from the section constraint condition DB 18 and used for formulating the latest constraint condition.

After that, the latest operation plan calculation unit 17 confirms whether the calculation of the latest operation plan is completed for all the planning periods (step 105), and if the calculation is completed (step 105: YES), a series of heat source operations. End the plan calculation process.
On the other hand, when the calculation is not completed (step 105: NO), the latest operation plan calculation unit 17 confirms whether the review cycle E has arrived (step 106).

Here, if the review cycle E has not arrived (step 106: NO), the process proceeds to step 102, and the calculation process of the latest operation plan for the next latest period is executed according to the arrival of the calculation period F. ..
Further, when the review cycle E has arrived (step 106: YES), the data acquisition unit 14 updates the calculation conditions related to the section constraint conditions (step 107), and then shifts to step 101 to calculate the section constraint conditions. The section 16 recalculates the interval constraint condition.

[Effect of the first embodiment]
As described above, in the present embodiment, the section constraint condition calculation unit 16 formulates the operation conditions and the full-year constraints for each predetermined review cycle, and the obtained function formula is semi-optimized to perform the remaining functions. In each section included in the planning period, the section constraint conditions related to the energy consumption subject to the full-year constraint are recalculated, and the latest operation plan calculation unit 17 responds to each calculation cycle provided in the review cycle. The latest operation condition, which is the operation condition for the latest period, is formulated, and the latest constraint condition, which indicates the full-year constraint for the latest period, is formulated based on the section constraint condition for the entire planning period, and the obtained function expression is optimized. By doing so, the latest operation plan showing at least one of the start / stop and the load factor for each heat source device in each section included in the latest period is calculated.

As a result, the process of calculating the operation plan until the end of the planning period is to calculate the semi-optimization problem for calculating the section constraint condition in each section to satisfy the full-year constraint and the latest operation plan for the latest period. It is separated into optimization problems, of which section constraints are calculated by executing semi-optimization processing every predetermined review cycle, and the latest operation plan is calculated for each calculation cycle provided within the review cycle. It will be calculated by executing the optimization process.

For this reason, the processing frequency of the section constraint condition calculation is compared with the case where the calculation of the section constraint condition and the calculation of the operation plan for the entire remaining period of the planning period are executed by the optimization process for each calculation cycle as in the prior art. In addition to being able to significantly reduce the processing load, the processing load of the latest operation plan can also be significantly reduced. Therefore, it is possible to reduce the processing load required for calculating the operation plan that satisfies the full-year constraint.
In the present embodiment, the heat source operation plan has been described as indicating the start / stop of each heat source device, but not only the start / stop but also the load factor at the time of starting each heat source device is included in the heat source operation plan. May be good. Further, the load factor at the time of stop may be set to zero, and only the load factor of each heat source device may be shown as a heat source operation plan.

[Second Embodiment]
Next, the heat source operation plan calculation device 10 according to the second embodiment of the present invention will be described.
In the first embodiment, the case where the full-year constraint is a gas annual load factor contract using the load factor has been described as an example, but the full-year constraint is not limited to this. In the present embodiment, as another example of the full-year constraint, a case where a gas annual lower limit contract that restricts annual gas consumption at the lower limit is set in addition to the gas annual load factor contract will be described.

For example, assuming that the gas consumption in i-month of the year is gi and the lower limit of the annual gas consumption is L, the contract condition formula of the annual gas lower limit contract is expressed by the following formula (5).

Here, the calculation target period for calculating the section constraint condition is the entire planning period Y, all the sections included in the planning period Y are t ∈ Y, and the section constraint condition in the section t, that is, the gas consumption is h ^* _t . In this case, the function formula showing the full-year constraint is represented by the following formula (6) based on the above-mentioned formula (5).

Therefore, when the section constraint condition calculation unit 16 calculates the section constraint condition in step 101 of FIG. 5 described above, the section constraint condition calculation unit 16 adds the function formula represented by the above formula (6) to the semi-optimization process, and the rest The section constraints related to the gas consumption in each section included in the planning period Y will be recalculated.

Here, assuming that the total gas consumption in the entire latest period M is hm and the gas consumption in the section t is h ^* _t , this equation (5) indicates that the latest period M is the specific period of the annual gas load factor contract. Regardless of whether P is included or not, it can be expressed by the following equation (7).
Further, if the gas consumption h ^* _t is calculated as the interval constraint condition, all the values of the variables other than hm are known. Therefore, if the constant C ₂ is used, it can be expressed by the following equation (8). ..

Therefore, when calculating the latest operation plan in step 103 of FIG. 5 described above, the latest operation plan calculation unit 17 adds the function formula of the above-mentioned equation (8) to the optimization process as the latest constraint condition, thereby causing the latest operation plan. The operation plan will be calculated.

Here, the case where the full-year constraint consists of a gas annual lower limit contract that limits the annual gas consumption at the lower limit has been described as an example, but the present invention is not limited to this, and the gas that limits the annual gas consumption at the upper limit is used. The same applies to the case of an annual lower limit contract. In the above-mentioned equations (5), (6), (7), and (8), the lower limit L is replaced with the upper limit H and the inequality sign is replaced with ≧ to ≦. Just do it. The same applies to a contract in which both the lower limit L and the upper limit H are set. Further, the combination with the gas annual load factor contract is not limited, and the gas annual load factor contract may not be applied, and for example, only the gas annual lower limit contract may be set as a full-year constraint. Of course, the same applies to contracts for energy consumption such as electricity and heat other than gas consumption.

[Third Embodiment]
Next, the heat source operation plan calculation device 10 according to the third embodiment of the present invention will be described.
Energy consumption such as gas may be affected by disturbances such as climate change, so for contracts such as the annual gas load factor contract, which is applied as a full-year constraint, an operation plan with some margin is calculated. It may be left.
In such a case, the safety margin ε> 0 for the full-year constraint may be defined and added to the right side of the above-mentioned equations (1), (2), (5), and (6). At this time, if the inequality sign is ≧, “+ ε” may be added, and if the inequality sign is ≦, “−ε” may be added.

Further, the safety margin may be increased when the contract period has just begun and decreased as the contract period elapses. By doing so, it is possible to reduce the energy purchase cost as much as possible while preventing the situation where the contract cannot be satisfied just before the end of the contract.

Further, the latest constraint condition may be adjusted by adding a safety margin ε to the above-mentioned equations (3) and (7). When adjusting the latest constraint condition, the magnitude of ε may be adjusted based on the result of the latest energy demand forecast. For example, if the latest steam demand is predicted to be relatively large (may be compared with the representative day in that section, or may be compared with the monthly average or the previous day) during a specific period P (winter), the boiler In anticipation of the possibility that the steam demand cannot be satisfied unless the gas consumption is increased, the ε added to the equation (3) may be decreased and the ε added to the equation (7) may be increased.
Alternatively, if the latest cold water demand is predicted to be relatively small in the summer, the cogeneration system consumes gas and the heat absorption chiller that uses the exhaust heat is operated in anticipation of the possibility of meeting the cold water demand. , Ε added to the equation (3) or the equation (7) may be increased.

Further, when the supply and demand is tight and it is desired to temporarily relax the constraint condition by the contract, the constraint may be relaxed by setting the safety margin ε to a negative value. Alternatively, if the constraint cannot be satisfied (cannot be solved) as a result of the operation plan calculation, the value of ε may be reduced (if it is already negative, it may be increased in the negative direction) and the calculation may be performed again.

[Extension of Embodiment]
Although the present invention has been described above with reference to the embodiments, the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments. Various changes that can be understood by those skilled in the art can be made to the structure and details of the present invention within the scope of the present invention. In addition, each embodiment can be implemented in any combination within a consistent range.

10 ... Heat source operation plan calculation device, 11 ... Communication I / F unit, 12 ... Operation input unit, 13 ... Screen display unit, 14 ... Data acquisition unit, 15 ... Storage unit, 16 ... Section constraint condition calculation unit, 17 ... Latest Operation plan calculation unit, 18 ... Section constraint condition DB, 19 ... Operation plan DB, 21 ... Energy demand data, 22 ... Equipment characteristic data, 23 ... Operation purpose data, 24 ... Equipment operation condition data, 25 ... Energy contract data.

Claims (5)

At least, the operating conditions for the operation of the heat source equipment, including the energy demand required for the heat source system during the planning period, the equipment characteristics of each heat source equipment used in the heat source system, and the operational purpose for the heat source system, and the plan. By formulating the full-year constraint on the amount of purchased energy applied for the entire period and optimizing the obtained functional expression, the start / stop and load factor of each heat source device in each section of the planned period can be determined. A heat source operation plan calculation device that calculates a heat source operation plan indicating at least one of them.
By formulating the operating conditions and the full-year constraint for each predetermined review cycle and semi-optimizing the obtained functional formula, the full-year constraint is applied to each section included in the remaining planning period. The section constraint condition calculation unit that recalculates the section constraint conditions related to energy consumption, and
For each calculation cycle provided in the review cycle, the latest operation condition, which is the operation condition for the corresponding latest period, is formulated, and the latest operation condition for the latest period is based on the section constraint condition for the entire planning period. By formulating the latest constraint condition indicating the full-year constraint and optimizing the obtained functional expression, the latest operation indicating at least one of the start / stop and the load factor of each heat source device in each section included in the latest period. A heat source operation plan calculation device characterized by having a latest operation plan calculation unit for calculating each plan. In the heat source operation plan calculation device according to claim 1.
A heat source operation plan calculation device, characterized in that the full-year constraint comprises a constraint relating to at least one of a load factor, an upper limit, and a lower limit relating to the purchased energy amount. In the heat source operation plan calculation device according to claim 1.
When the latest operation plan calculation unit calculates the latest operation plan for each section t included in the latest period M, the planning period Y and the specific period P of the planning period Y defined by the full-year constraint Let α be the load factor indicating the average energy consumption ratio, let Ny / Np be the ratio of the planning period Y to the specific period P, and t ∈ Y \ be the set of sections t of the planning period Y that are not included in the latest period M. Let M be, let t ∈ P \ M be the set of intervals t that are not included in the latest period M in the specific period P, let h ^* _t be the energy consumption in the interval t, and be used in each of the heat source devices in the latest period M. When the total energy consumption is h and the total energy consumption used by each heat source device in the specific period P included in the latest period M is hp, the following functional formula is used.

A heat source operation plan calculation device, characterized in that each of the latest operation plans is calculated by an optimization process using the above. In the heat source operation plan calculation device according to claim 1.
A heat source operation plan calculation device, characterized in that when at least one of the full-year constraint and the latest constraint condition is formulated, a safety margin for the corresponding full-year constraint or the latest constraint condition is added to the formulation. At least, the operating conditions for the operation of the heat source equipment, including the energy demand required for the heat source system during the planning period, the equipment characteristics of each heat source equipment used in the heat source system, and the operational purpose for the heat source system, and the plan. By formulating the full-year constraint on the amount of purchased energy applied for the entire period and optimizing the obtained functional expression, the start / stop and load factor of each heat source device in each section of the planned period can be determined. A heat source operation plan calculation method used in a heat source operation plan calculation device that calculates a heat source operation plan indicating at least one of them.
The section constraint condition calculation unit formulates the operation condition and the full-year constraint for each predetermined review cycle, and semi-optimizes the obtained function formula to perform quasi-optimization processing of the obtained function formula in each section included in the remaining planning period. The section constraint condition calculation step for recalculating the section constraint conditions related to the energy consumption subject to the full-year constraint, and
The latest operation plan calculation unit formulates the latest operation condition, which is the operation condition for the corresponding latest period, for each calculation cycle provided in the review cycle, and sets the section constraint condition for the entire planning period. Based on this, the latest constraint condition indicating the full-year constraint for the latest period is formulated, and the obtained functional formula is optimized, so that the start / stop and load factor of each heat source device in each section included in the latest period are started and stopped. A heat source operation plan calculation method including a latest operation plan calculation step for calculating each of the latest operation plans indicating at least one of the above.

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